SmartDrivingCar.com/6.28-Phoenix-061518
28th edition of the 6th year of SmartDrivingCars
Waymo team, June 13, "Ariel
rides after school. Neha hops
to the grocery store. Barbara
and Jim zip around town while
kicking back.
They’re all part of the Waymo
early rider program we
launched last April. Today,
over 400 riders with diverse
backgrounds use Waymo every
day, at any time, to ride all
around the Phoenix area. Their
feedback helps us understand
how fully self driving cars
fit into their daily lives.
One year in, our early rider
program and our extensive
on-road testing is helping us
build the world’s most
experienced driver. In fact,
our fleet of cars across the
U.S. is now driving more than
24,000 miles daily; that’s the
equivalent of an around the
world road trip! Here’s a
quick report on how our riders
use Waymo, what we’ve learned,
and what’s next....As some of
the first people in the world
to use self-driving vehicles
for their everyday
transportation needs, our
early riders are helping shape
this technology. Thanks to
their feedback, we’re refining
the rider experience to make
sure that: ... nobody wants
to carry grocery bags a block
down the street... " Read
more Hmmmm....
Yipes!! The personal
car isn't bad enough
in its focus on
private
single-occupant
parkingSpot2parkingSpot
mobility? Are we now
going to have Waymo
providing it Door2Door
with zero opportunity
to share rides and
while delivering
negative public
benefits of increased
energy, pollution and
congestion with all of
its empty vehicle
repositioning. No
wonder the CPUC voted
to forbid
ride-sharing. Did
Waymo made them do it
since Waymo hasn't
done ride-sharing in
Phoenix? Having 2 or
more people in the car
isn't ride sharing if
they would have all gone
together in their own
car had Waymo not been
there. So Bad!!!
Without
ride-sharing,
this is just
expensive,
energy
inefficient
and
environmentally
challenged
private
chauffeuring
for the
entitled
privileged
class:
See
video Just like
watching Oszzie & Harriet
or Leave
it to Beaver.
For Waymo to "Win it",
they'll need to
embrace ride-sharing
because no
"Blue-state" PUC is
going to be as
impressionable as as
California's. Alain
J. D'Onfro, June 14, "For
slightly more than a year, 400
volunteers have tested out
Waymo's self-driving car
service in Phoenix, Arizona,
for free, letting the
driverless vehicles whisk them
to work, shopping centers, the
bar, or anywhere else within a
100-square-mile area. In that
time, these riders have been
filing the non-technical
equivalent of bug reports,
using the cars' rider support
call buttons and in-app
feedback forms to point out
issues with the service and
highlight use cases that Waymo
researchers might have
missed. Through their
experiences, Waymo has learned
a few things:... Read
more Hmmmm....
Very interesting, but
they didn't learn
ride-sharing. See
also video
on Waymo Test Site.
Alain
F. Fishkin,
June 15, "Waymo marks the
first year of its early
rider program. The news is
good but Princeton's Alain
Kornhauser says it could be
better. How? Tune in to
Episode 45 of the Smart
Driving Cars Podcast for
that and the latest on GM,
Voyage, Ford and more Listen
and subscribe."
Hmmmm.... Now you can
just say "Alexa,
play the Smart
Driving Cars
podcast!" .
Ditto with Siri,
and GooglePlay.
Alain
Free exchange, June 7, "The
race to bring driverless cars
to market is fierce and
crowded. All the leading
carmakers are in the field: on
May 31st SoftBank’s Vision
Fund said that it would invest
$2.25bn in the autonomous
vehicle (AV) arm of General
Motors. So are tech upstarts,
from Uber to Tesla to Waymo,
Alphabet’s self-drive division
and the leader in driverless
technology, which recently
announced plans to add 62,000
minivans to the fleet of cars
that will make up its
autonomous ride-hailing
service. Intense competition
has both benefits and costs,
but will probably prove
short-lived. Thanks to
powerful economies of scale,
the roads may soon be ruled by
no more than a handful of
firms.
The advantages of scale begin
with data. Like humans, the
computers which power
driverless cars improve with
experience. The computers
sitting in AVs are essentially
in the business of learning
and improving on what a good
human driver would do, write
Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans and
Avi Goldfarb in their new
book, “Prediction Machines”.
The more data they have, the
better they become at
predicting whether that blur
ahead is a pedestrian or
sunlight reflecting off the
road, and reacting
accordingly. And the more
miles under an AV project’s
belt, the more unusual
events—a moose in the road,
say—the system faces...." Read
more Hmmmm....
Mobility is
fundamentally a
Utility, so a monopoly
(exclusive charter) is
not out of the
question. Transit
Agencies are
"monopolies". Alain
O. Cameron, June 14, "...For
the last year, we’ve worked
side-by-side with our
communities to refine our
self-driving taxi service.
Today, we’re taking that a
step further with the
introduction of our second
generation (G2) vehicle.
The G2 is a big step forward
for Voyage and our
communities. The G2 vehicle is
based on the widely acclaimed
Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid
mini-van, and is paired with a
first-of-its-kind partnership
with Enterprise to
super-charge the scaling of
our autonomous fleet. The G2
features incredible new sensor
technology from Velodyne,
best-in-class safety systems,
and Voyage’s own autonomous
driving technology. As a team,
we are marching incredibly
fast toward truly driverless
services inside Voyage
communities....
We’ve solved the vehicle scaling problem by establishing a first-of-its-kind partnership with the leader in commercial fleet leasing and maintenance: Enterprise. Enterprise will leverage decades of fleet management experience to procure, lease, and service our fleet of G2 autonomous vehicles. The lease allows Voyage to retrofit vehicles with our self-driving hardware. When the lease term is up, we simply return the vehicle to Enterprise, and recycle any vehicle equity back into expanding our fleet. "..." Read more Hmmmm.... Somewhat interesting; however, there must be more than just a car leasing arrangement. Given Enterprse's "We'll pick you up" slogan, they really need Voyage's driverless technology. Moreover, Enterprise had been an early investor in MobilEye. There must be more to this deal. Alain
D. Welch, " General Motors
Co. is having early
discussions internally and
with banks about strategic
options for its self-driving
car unit Cruise Automation,
according to people familiar
with the matter. The largest
U.S. automaker is researching
possibilities including a
public offering of shares,
listing a separate tracking
stock to reflect its value, or
spinning off the unit, said
the people, who asked not to
be identified because the
discussions are private. GM
won’t make a decision until
Cruise is further along in
development and may not take
any action for a couple of
years, if at all.
Interested in working in
Toronto? Have a good
background and interest in
working on safety and security
for autonomous driving
vehicles and fleets? Contact
Dr. Fengmin Gong, DiDi
Labs
"Startup RideOS said Friday
that it has raised $9 million
led by venture firm Sequoia
Capital and reached a
partnership with a division of
Ford Motor Co. Started by two
former Uber Technologies Inc.
employees, RideOS plans to
sell software that gives
routes and other dispatching
instructions to fleets of
autonomous cars. Add RideOS to
a mounting list of companies
competing to create markets
around the nascent technology,
which continues to reel in
investment...." Read
more Hmmmm....
Wow, Sequoia and
Ford must have money
to burn. Maybe 20+
years ago this stuff
was hard and novel.
I guess that $9M is
really pocket change
and good talent
(like my students
who could do this)
cost
that much to
acquire. Alain
3rd
Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit
evening May 14 through May
16, 2019
Save the
Date; Reserve your
Sponsorship
Photos
from 2nd Annual Princeton
SmartDrivingCar Summit
Program
& Links to slides
from 2nd Annual
Princeton
SmartDrivingCar Summit
F. Fishkin, June 12, "What is the big mistake California is making in driverless vehicle testing? Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser says the key is to promote ride sharing. Join the professor and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 44 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast for more on that, Waymo, Tesla and more.
F. Fishkin, June 8, "What is missing from the NTSB's preliminary report on the March Tesla crash? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser's speaks out along with co-host Fred Fishkin in Episode 43 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus... Waymo to bring self driving vehicles to Europe? Self driving shuttles in Canada. And GM bringing Super Cruise to more vehicles. Listen and subscribe."
F. Fishkin, June 3, "Softbank makes a multibillion dollar investment in GM's self driving company and Google's Waymo orders more than 60 thousand additional Chrysler minivans for a self driving fleet. Where does Uber fit in? Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser dives in along with co-host Fred Fishkin in Episode 42 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Listen and subscribe."
F. Fishkin, May 31, "Artificial Intelligence may be able to drive better than humans most of the time....but is that good enough? Join Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser and Co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 41 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. More on the latest from Uber, Tesla and Nuro. Listen and subscribe."
F. Fishkin, May 17, "How close is California to giving the green light to driverless testing on public roads? Deputy DMV Director Bernard Soriano joins Alain Kornhauser, Fred Fishkin and guest Michael Sena on Episode 39 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. And we review some highlights of the just concluded 2nd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit. Listen and subscribe!"
F. Fishkin, May 10, "The continuing Uber crash investigation, Waymo and Ohio rolls out the welcome mat for the testing of self driving cars. All that and more in Episode 38 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This week Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by Bryant Walker Smith of the University of South Carolina and Stanford. Tune in and subscribe!"
F. Fishkin, Apr 26, "Getting SmartDrivingCar companies to share their data on safety. It's a move that could benefit all says Princeton University Professor Alain Kornhauser in the latest Smart Driving Cars Podcast. He joins co-host Fred Fishkin...to chat about the move by Voyage. Also...Tesla, Waymo and more..
F. Fishkin,
Apr 4, " Waymo is making
it real! In Episode 33 of
the Smart Driving Cars
Podcast, hosts Fred Fishkin
and Princeton's Alain
Kornhauser are joined by
Michael Sena,
publisher of The Dispatcher
newsletter. Take a deep dive
into Waymo's
deals with Jaguar and talks
with Honda.. Tesla, Volvo,
Uber and Ambarella.
And the Princeton Smart
Driving Car Summit is coming
up! "
F. Piekniewski, "Deep learning has been at the forefront of the so called AI revolution for quite a few years now, and many people had believed that it is the silver bullet that will take us to the world of wonders of technological singularity (general AI). ...We have now mid 2018 and things have changed. ..By far the biggest blow into deep learning fame is the domain of self driving vehicles ..
But by far the biggest prick
punching through the AI bubble
was the accident in which Uber
self driving car killed a
pedestrian in Arizona. From
the preliminary report by the
NTSB we can read some
astonishing statements:..." Read
more Hmmmm....
Very interesting.
We still have an
awful lot to do.
See also,G.
Marcus, below.
Alain
KMay 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March 18, 2018, an
Uber Technologies, Inc. test
vehicle, based on a modified
2017 Volvo XC90 and operating
with a self-driving system in
computer control mode, struck
a pedestrian on northbound
Mill Avenue, in Tempe,
Maricopa County, Arizona.
...The vehicle was factory
equipped with several advanced
driver assistance functions by
Volvo Cars, the original
manufacturer. The systems
included a collision avoidance
function with automatic
emergency
braking, known as City Safety,
as well as functions for
detecting driver alertness and
road sign information. All
these Volvo functions are
disabled when the test vehicle
is operated in computer
control..."
Read more Hmmmm....
Uber must believe that
its systems are better
at avoiding Collisions
and Automated
Emergency Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this gets
Volvo "off the hook".
"...According
to data obtained from the
self-driving system, the
system first registered
radar and LIDAR
observations of the
pedestrian about 6 seconds
before impact, when the
vehicle was traveling at
43 mph..." (=
63 feet/second)
So the system
started "seeing an
obstacle when it
was 63 x 6 = 378
feet away... more
than a football
field, including
end zones!
"...As
the vehicle and pedestrian
paths converged, the
self-driving system
software classified the
pedestrian as an unknown
object, as a vehicle, and
then as a bicycle with
varying expectations of
future travel path..."
(NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel paths." Forget
the path, please just
tell us the precise
velocity vector that
Uber's system attached
to the "object", then
the "vehicle". Why
didn't the the Uber
system instruct the
Volvo to begin to slow
down (or speed up) to
avoid a collision? If
these paths (or
velocity vectors) were
not accurate, then why
weren't they
accurate? Why was the
object classified as a
"Vehicle" ??
When did it finally
classify the object as
a "bicycle"?
Why did it change
classifications? How
often was the
classification of this
object done. Please
divulge the time and
the outcome of each
classification of this
object.
In the tests that
Uber has done, how
often has the
system
mis-classified an
object as a "pedestrian"when
the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
K. Pyle, May 9, "Safety and, as importantly, the perception of safety could be the pin that pricks the expectations surrounding the autonomous vehicle future. Recognizing the importance of safety to the success of this still nascent industry, autonomous taxi start-up, Voyage, recently placed their testing and reporting procedures in an open source framework. ...Oliver Cameron, Voyage Co-Founder and CEO, is excited to see participation and says, “We can’t wait to have all of these contributions from companies from around the world; contribute to build the actual standard in autonomous safety.” Read more, Hmmmm.... See the video that was played at the Princeton SDC Summit which generated substantial positive discussion at the Summit. See also full length video. Alain
A. Efrati, May 7, "Uber has
determined that the likely
cause of a fatal collision
involving one of its prototype
self-driving cars in Arizona
in March was a problem with
the software that decides how
the car should react to
objects it detects, according
to two people briefed about
the matter." Read
more Hmmmm....Uber
is "leaking" this???
Is this Spin? Fake
News?? I guess Uber
doesn't believe in
transparency here.
Where is the official
public statement
of reassurance???
"The car’s sensors detected
the pedestrian, who was
crossing the street with a
bicycle,
Hmmmm....Pretty much
what I wrote on March
24, the sensors "Saw
something" ...
but Uber’s software decided it
didn’t need to react right
away. ..."right
away" is Fake News.
It never
reacted. Uber has not
released any data
indicating that the
software ever
reacted. "That’s
a result of how the software
was tuned." ...That
was a major "tuning"
faux pas. What is
being divulged here is
that Uber's software
never became confident
enough that what it
was seeing was
something that it
should not hit and, at
least, begin to apply
the brakes (or swerve,
or ???). Even the
driver in the video
recognized that the
object should not be
hit a split second
before the crash. So
the Problem
is not "tuning" it
is outright "fuhgeddaboudit"
Like other autonomous vehicle
systems, Uber’s software has
the ability to ignore “false
positives,” or objects in its
path that wouldn’t actually be
a problem for the vehicle,
such as a plastic bag floating
over a road.... Is
Uber suggesting that
its software can't
tell the difference
between a plastic bag
floating over the road
and a pedestrian with
a bicycle, even after
seeing the object 30
to 60 or more times
over the 3 or more
seconds that the
object was in view?
If this isn't Fake
News then Uber is
hopelessly far
behind... In
this case, Uber executives
believe the company’s system
was tuned so that it reacted
less to such objects." It didn't
react at all!...
But the tuning went too far,
and the car didn’t react fast
enough, one of these people
said....
... It didn't react at
all! If this wasn't so
important I'd put it
in C'mon man.
"False
positives" are the
symptom, not the problem.
The problem is Uber's
system design and
operational policy. Uber
system designers knew that
the sensors under certain
conditions reported "false
positives" (were
"spooked"). One of those
conditions was possibly
the combination of "is the
closing speed = car's
current speed" AND "is the
car's current speed
greater than 30mph." In
situations in which both
are true, then Uber's
"tuning" is outright
"fuhgeddaboudit".
This "tuning" effectively
turns-off Uber's sensors
to detecting anything that
is stationary or moving
across its lane ahead. If
Uber has understood this,
then Uber would/should
have ...
1. limited the operation of its cars to speeds under 30 mph,
2.
limited the operation of
its cars at speeds greater
than 30 mph only to
roadways where pedestrians
are extremely unlikely to
cross, and
3.
focus on substantially
improving its ability to
interpret its sensor data
so that the false alarm
rate becomes so small that
false alarms are tolerated
throughout Uber's
operational domain.
..."Meanwhile, the human
driver behind the wheel, who
is meant to take over and
prevent an accident, wasn't
paying attention in the
seconds before the car
hit..." ...I
think that this is a cheap
shot against the driver.
I suspect that this car
had a screen that
displayed the real-time
status of the automated
driving system. I would
not be surprised if that
screen was mounted below
the radio and that the
driver was actually
monitoring the operation
of the automated driving
system prior to the
crash. Why this display
wasn't on the dash so that
the driver's peripheral
vision could remain on the
road ahead when the driver
was monitoring the
performance of the system
is a question Uber should
answer,... if it had any
interest in being
transparent.
Another
question that Uber could
be asked: Why didn't the
monitoring system warn the
driver that it was "seeing
something" and ask the
driver to look to see if
it should be "saying/doing
something".
Since
it doesn't look like Uber
is going to really divulge
anything, it is incumbent
on the NTSB to dig deeply
into this "false alarm"
issue. Disregarding
"false positives" in order
to circumvent a little
passenger/customer
discomfort enables "false
negatives" which kill
people. Not pretty!
A. Madrigal, Mar 28, "On Tuesday, Waymo announced they’d purchase 20,000 sporty, electric self-driving vehicles from Jaguar for the company’s forthcoming ride-hailing service.... But the company embedded a much more significant milestone inside this supposed announcement about a fancy car. With orders now in for more than 20,000 of these vehicles and thousands of minivans that Chrysler announced earlier this year, Waymo will be capable of doing vast numbers of trips per day. They estimate that the Jaguar fleet alone will be capable of doing a million trips each day in 2020. ..." Read more Hmmmm...Yup!! This is HUGE! It will change the city and the key to making it so it doesn't make thing worse is Ride-sharing. If we ride-share we'll reduce energy, pollution & GHG by more than 50% and provide high-quality, affordable mobility indiscriminately for all. It becomes the new high-quality, low-cost mass transit. If it's kept/operated as another alternative for the 1%ers to be chauffeured alone, then the outcome is UGLY. Ride-sharing is KEY! Alain
R.
Mitchell, Mar 22, "Police
late Wednesday released a
video that shows an Uber
robot car running straight
into a woman who was walking
her bicycle across a highway
in Tempe, Ariz. The woman
was taken to a hospital,
where she died Sunday night.
The video, shot from the
car, is sure to raise debate
over who's to blame for the
accident. In the video,
the victim, Elaine Herzberg,
49, appears to be illegally
jaywalking from a median
strip across two lanes of
traffic on a dark road. But
she was more than halfway
across the street when the
car — traveling about 40
mph, according to police —
hit her. The car did not
appear to brake or take any
other evasive action....
Bryant Walker Smith, a law
professor and driverless
specialist at the University
of South Carolina, said:
"Although this appalling
video isn't the full
picture, it strongly
suggests a failure by Uber's
automated driving system and
a lack of due care by Uber's
driver as well as by the
victim."..." Read
more
Hmmmm... "..."What we
now need is for the release
of the radar and lidar
data," Princeton's
Kornhauser said in an email.
(Lidar is a sensing
technology that uses light
from a laser.) "Obviously,
the video of the driver is
extremely bad for Uber and
probably implies that Uber
should suspend all of its
'self-driving' efforts for a
while if not for a very long
while.
"The 'self-driving' systems
are supposed to have
'professional' overseers who
are really supposed to be
paying attention during
these 'tests'. Apparently
Uber didn't make it clear in
this case."
Kornhauser questioned the
police description of a
situation that would have
been difficult to avoid. He
said Uber should reveal what
its collision-avoidance
software was doing during
the couple of seconds before
impact.
"The front-facing video
suggests that this person
was crossing the lane at a
slow speed and should have
been noticed by the system
in time to at least apply
the brakes, if not stop the
vehicle completely," he
said. "While a human may not
have been able to avoid this
crash, a well-designed,
well-working collision
avoidance system should have
at least begun to apply the
brakes."..."
" ...
Again, my sincerest
condolences to Elaine
Herzberg's family and
friends.
The
simple arithmetic is:
She crossed more than
a lane and a half
before being struck or
more than 15 feet.
Average walking speed
is about 4.6 ft/sec
which means that she
was "visible" on this
stretch of road for
more than 3 seconds.
Uber's speed of 38 mph
= 55.7 ft/sec
means: Uber was 150 ft
away when she began
crossing the left-hand
lane and could have
been visible by an
alert driver. The
car's lidar
and radar surely must
have "seen" her
beginning at about
that time. Car
stopping distance
including "thinking
time used in The
Highway Code" @ 38mph
is 110 feet. The
driver should have
been able to stop 40
feet short. Any
Automated Emergency
Braking (AEB) system
should have been able
to stop the car in
little more than the
stopping distance of
72 feet, half way to
Elaine. This simple
arithmetic suggests
that there may be a
very fundamental
fatal flaw in Uber's
AEB.
And
the driver was not
paying attention. At
3 seconds prior to
impact, Elaine was
within a 12 degree
field of view when she
began to cross the
left lane. While
outside the fovea,
this is well within a
normal gaze had the
operator been looking
out the window.
The
released video is from
a "dash cam" and is
unlikely to be the
video captured by
Uber's "Self-driving"
system (or whatever
Uber calls it). That
video may well be at a
much higher resolution
and frame rate. Uber
MUST release that
video (not just the
dash-cam video) as
well as the radar and
lidar data
that was being used by
their "Self-driving"
system. Uber was
testing its system at
the time of the crash
and therefore MUST
have been logging
those data in case
something went wrong.
Uber needs those
recorded data in order
to have a chance to
learn what went wrong
and fix it. Something
did go wrong, very
wrong. Uber and
everyone else MUST
also have the
opportunity to learn
from this tragedy. So
Uber MUST release all
of the data. Alain
R.
Mitchell, Mar 21, "As long
as robot cars roam public
streets and highways, they
will occasionally kill
people. That's an ugly truth
that no one in the
driverless vehicle industry
can deny.
Will those robot cars kill
people at significantly
lower rates than drunk,
stoned, tired or distracted
human drivers do now?
Automakers, technology
companies, politicians and
regulators are betting they
will, as driverless vehicles
are rolling out faster than
almost anyone expected as
recently as a year ago. But
the Sunday night incident in
Tempe, Ariz., in which an
Uber robot car hit and
killed a woman walking her
bicycle across the street,
makes clear the industry is
much further behind in
making its case to the
public.
"It's likely there will be
far fewer deaths with
driverless cars," said
Marlene Towns, a professor
at Georgetown University's
McDonough School of
Business. "But getting to
the point where people will
be convinced of that will be
tough."
Speculation by Tempe's
police chief that the robot
may not be at fault in the
crash may temper any public
or political backlash.
Uber was testing the robot
car in autonomous mode with
a human engineer, who was
behind the wheel but not
driving. Elaine Herzberg,
49, walking a bicycle,
stepped in front of the car
from a center median,
according to video evidence,
police said...." Read
more
Hmmmm...
"...Carmakers
and technology companies
need to be far more
transparent as they push
forward, experts said.
"It's important that we
all learn from this
accident and we make these
technologies even better,
said Alain Kornhauser, a
professor at Princeton
University and a leading
authority on driverless
cars. "To that end Uber
must release all of the
data leading up to this
crash. All of the video,
radar, lidar
and logic trails for the
three or so seconds
leading up to the crash.
If this releases some of
Uber's intellectual
property, so be it."..."
" ...
My sincerest
condolences to Elaine
Herzberg's family and
friends. I hope that
Uber with its "$60"B
valuation will make a
very generous
contribution to
homeless charities and
think even more
seriously about
"buying" (by
partnering) rather
than "making" this
technology. Alain
G. Kumparak,
Mar 13, "...." Read
more
Hmmmm...
This is REALLY big news.This
marks the real
beginning of on-demand
mobility provided by
vehicles without a
driver or an attendant
on-board, only the
passengers and the
vehicles used normal
public roadways that
operated in normal
everyday manner and
used by conventional
cars and trucks. Ng
Waymo to
their o police
escorts, no warning
signs, just normal
everyday operating
conditions. Except
for the one trip given
to Steve Mahan in
November 2015 in
Austin Texas, this is
the First time that it
kind of mobility
service has been
delivered anywhere in
the world. Waymo
has achieved 5 million
vehicle miles of
Self-driving
(automated driving on
normally operating
public roadway;
however, with a
driver/attendant in
the car ready to take
over should the
automated system begin
to fail. Many others
including Uber, Lyft/Aptiv,
GM/Cruise, nVIDIA,
Apple, Tesla, Nissan
and many others have
also done many miles
of Self-driving on
normal roads but each
an everyone had a
driver/attendant in
the vehicle ready to
"save the day" should
something go bad.
Nobody else anywhere
in the world is doing
what Waymo
is now doing in
Chandler AZ. Now that
the first one has been
done, any community
that is similar to
Chandler AZ can now
think seriously about
inviting Waymo
to provide affordable
on-demand mobility to
everyone in their
city.
Be
sure to see the
video.
Congratulations
Waymo!!!!!
Alain
D. Etherington, Feb 27, "California’s Department of Motor Vehicles established new rules announced Monday that will allow tech companies and others working on driverless vehicle systems to begin trialling their cars without a safety driver at the wheel. The new rules go into effect starting April 2 ..." Read more Hmmmm... Even though we have been expecting this, it is a major hurdle for it to actually have occurred. How long after April 2 will Waymo take to begin this type of testing. Again this is only testing and deployment, but NOT commercial service, which may happen first in Arizona, but it is a major step in this r-evolution. Commercial services are regulated by other agencies in California, not CA DMV. It is those other agencies that will need to grant/award the licenses for the various commercial operations where these driverless vehicles would be used. This regulation allows properly licensed commercial operations using CA DMV certified driverless vehicles to have those vehicles use California public roadways in delivering the otherwise licensed commercial activity. Note: CA DMV does not license the commercial transport of people or goods. That is the purview of other CA regulatory agencies. Alain
Andrew Hawkins, Jan 30, “Waymo, the self-driving unit of Google parent Alphabet, has reached a deal with one of Detroit’s Big Three automakers to dramatically expand its fleet of autonomous vehicles. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles announced today that it would supply “thousands” of additional Chrysler Pacifica minivans to Waymo, with the first deliveries starting at the end of 2018.
Waymo currently
has 600 of FCA’s minivans in
its fleet, some of which are
used to shuttle real people
around for its Early Rider
program in Arizona. The
first 100 were delivered
when the partnership was
announced in May 2016, and
an additional 500 were
delivered in 2017. The
minivans are plug-in hybrid
variants with Waymo’s
self-driving hardware and
software built in. The
companies co-staff a
facility in Michigan, near
FCA’s US headquarters, to
engineer the vehicles. The
company also owns a fleet of
self-driving Lexus RX SUVs
that is has been phasing out
in favor of the new
minivans. (The cute
“Firefly” prototypes were
also phased out last
year.)…” Read
more Hmmmm...
We’ve all been
wondering” Who’s going
to make the cars? How
will that evolve?Will
they magically appear???
Well….Looks
like it is FCA for now.
We've gone from a
handful 5 years ago, 2
years ago added 100,
added 500 last year,
“thousands” this/next
year, … Beginning to
look like exponential
growth! (A Bit Coin
Bubble??) What is also
most interesting: no
parallel announcement
that Waymo
was hiring “thousands of
attendants” to ride
around as "drivers" in
these “thousands of
minivans”. Guess what
that means… The Kornhauser
Scale is going to
start really going up!!!
J
While
ultimately they’ll need
about 35 million of
these to provide
affordable mobility to
all in the US, this is a
real start at making
this into a business as
opposed to an NSF-style
study that collects dust
on a shelf or, worse
yet, a digital
manuscript that is never
downloaded by anyone
outside a "group of
three". This is a major
announcement!
From Stan Young: It will be interesting to watch. It probably has the OEMs, Uber and Lyft scared out of their wits. Based on any objective comparison of accomplishment with automated vehicles, there is not a close second to Waymo, despite all the claims to the contrary by trade rags – and the competition knows it. Still a huge unknown concerning the ‘social side’ of riding in an un-attended vehicle, but we will likely get over it like we did with elevators. ‘Thousands’ of vehicles if deployed in one city will put it on scale of Uber and Lyft – an interesting study when/if it comes to that.
...An issue is: where will Waymo choose to deploy (and for Waymo, the word "deploy" is the right word... they make the decision where to place these, in some sense take it or leave it... as opposed to waiting for people to show up at a dealership to buy or have it stay on the lot or have some governmental agency thinking that it actually has a role/power/where-with-all to “deploy”) where, when and how many. They could "flood/concentrate" on Chandler/Phoenix/Tuscon area with scale to be really relevant and substantively demonstrate the evolution of mobility, or they could sprinkle them out nationwide and remain irrelevant everywhere. I like the "flood/concentrate" approach in a state (Arizona) where they seem to be truly welcomed and whose climate, topography and road network are "easy". More importantly it would demonstrate the viability/challenges of the at-scale approach. From our simulations we uncovered that at-scale, one might need to be managing as many as 20,000 aTaxis in a 2.5x2.5 mile area (the extreme in Manhattan, which may be the last place that you want to try this) but it can be large. We’ll drill down in our data and take a look at Chandler/Phoenix and report back as to what we think it would take to provide mobility for all. Alain
Jan. 9, T. Papandreou & E. Casson. "... Waymo driverless service..." Read more Hmmmm... Tim and Ellie made presentation at the Transportation Research Board's Vehicle-Highway Automation (AHB30) Committee meeting on Tuesday in which they gave an update on Waymo's progress to launch "Waymo's driverless service" (slide 11), an app-based ride hailing service to the general public in a geo-fenced area of Arizona. To date Waymo has been testing such a service using volunteer riders in their driverless vehicles in various areas around the country (slide 7): however, to date, except for one ride given to Steve Mahan in Austin, TX, rides on normally operating public streets have always had trained Waymo-authorized personnel (an attendant) in the vehicle capable to intervene in the driving of the vehicle should the need arise. Since October, in Arizona, those personnel no longer sit behind the wheel, but are in the back seat so that Waymo can observe the response of the volunteer riders to riding in a vehicle on normal public streets under normal conditions without anyone in the front seats of the vehicle.
Tim said, without providing a specific date, that Waymo will soon launch "Waymo's driverless service" providing mobility to the general public on public roads in a geo-fenced area of Arizona. I asked Tim "Will that service be offered with vehicles that have an attendant in the vehicle?". Tim's answer was "No!". I asked a follow-up question: "Will these vehicle's have telemetry capabilities that enable these vehicles to be closely monitored from a "situation room" or "control center" that would enable remote operation of the vehicle, should the need arise?". Tim's answer was "No!". Another questioner asked if the geo-fenced area included special "connected vehicle" road infrastructure improvement that Waymo's system will be relying on?" Tim's answer was "No!".
While the definition of "soon" was not given, I've taken this as a really big pronouncement that Waymo is actually going to go to launch commercially-viable on-demand mobility to the general public on conventional public roads. This is really big news because this is finally going to enable us to begin to evolve on the "Kornhauser Scale" ( log of (world-wide VMT of Driverless (VMT-D) vehicles without a human attendant/driver on board accumulated while providing mobility to the general public on conventional roadways). So far we are beyond the "undefined value" associated with VMT-D = 0 and are at KS = 1 only by virtue of the one Steve Mahan ride in Austin). :-) Alain
AP,
Nov. 7, 2017 "Waymo,
the self-driving car company
created by Google, is pulling
the human backup driver from
behind the steering wheel and
will test vehicles on public
roads with
only an
employee in the back seat.
The company’s move — which
started Oct. 19 with an
automated Chrysler Pacifica
minivan in the Phoenix suburb
of Chandler, Ariz. — is a major
step toward vehicles driving
themselves on public roads
without human backup drivers.
..." Read
more Hmmmm...
Not to be too critical,
but Waymo
is still just
'Self-driving' . While
they moved the
'engineer' with the
ability to 'take over
and drive the vehicle'
from behind the wheel to
the back seat, this is
just a step along the
broad 'Self-driving'
continuum which is a
vehicle that, under
certain circumstance,
can drive itself, but
does that only if there
is a person ready and
able to take over if the
unexpected appears.
The
big-leap/major-step will
come when Waymo
removes the 'engineer'
entirely from the
vehicle and it
is human-less when it
arrives to pick up a
passenger and drives
away human-less after
the last passenger(s)
disembark. That
enormous leap-of-faith
in the technology will
mark Waymo's
inception of the Driverless
Era. (or what Waymo
prefers to call 'Fully
Self-driving' era.)
Just
to be clear, when that
time comes, I'm sure
that Waymo
will have telemetry
throughout that
Driverless vehicle and
there will be a room
full of engineers in Waymo's
'Situation
Room' ready to
take over the driving
should the need arise.
However, until that
time, Waymo
is just like all the
other
wanabes, they
are just 'Self-driving'
without the 'Fully'.
The
reason why 'remote
emergency driving' is
'Driverless' is because
it scales. By that I
mean that it takes the
provision of horizontal
mobility on our public
streets from needing at
least one human per
vehicle to needing less
than one human per
vehicle. Initially the
remote driver will
monitor one car. Before
you know it that person
will be monitoring two,
four, eight, ...
vehicles and truly
Driverless with zero
remote human oversee-ers
will be approached
asymptotically. But
just like the old saw
between the engineer and
the mathematician:
engineer and
mathematician were
sitting on a bench
recalling their youth...
Engineer said "Long ago,
I was sitting on this
very bench with my
girl. We wanted to kiss
but we were too far
apart. So we agreed to
move towards each other
by halving the distance
between us on each
move. The mathematician
blared " You're so
stupid! If you did
that, you never came
together!" The engineer
just smiled: "we got
close enough!". Alain
Rulemaking
Actions, Oct 1The
following 3 PDFs are
important:
1.
Autonomous Vehicles Notice
of Modification (PDF)
Act
2.
Autonomous Vehicles
Statement of Reasons (PDF)
Act
3.
Autonomous Vehicles 15 Day
Express Terms (PDF)
Act Hmmmm..This
is all about Driverless!
Thank you California,
and especially Dr.
Bernard Soriano, for
leading this noble
effort and for
continuing to
distinguish this
technology from Self-driving
and all of the various
other names seemingly
meant to confuse. Alain
The
docket material is available
at: https://go.usa.gov/xNvaE"
Read more Hmmmm...
A few comments...
1.
Since lateral control
(swerving) couldn't have
avoided this crash (the
truck is almost 70 ft
long (6 lanes wide)
stretching broadside
across the highway) , it
doesn't matter if Josh
Brown ever had his hands
on the steering wheel.
That's totally
irrelevant.
2.
Why didn't autobrake
kick in when the tractor
part of the
tractor-trailer passed
in front of the Tesla?
3.
How fast was the truck
going when it cut off
the Tesla. I couldn't
find the answer in 500
pages.
4.
With sight distances of
greater than 1,000 feet,
why didn't the truck
driver see the Tesla?
Was it the drugs?
5.
This intersection
invites "left-turn
run-throughs" (no stop
or yield and a 53 foot
median and turn lane
need to be crossed
before one slips through
a gap in two traffic
lanes. So you certainly
roll into it, (plenty of
room to stop if you see
something coming) and if
you don't see anything,
you hit it. If you're
in the Tesla, you think
you've been clearly
seem, you expect the
truck to stop, it
doesn't, you can't
believe it, BAM! All in
probably a second or so.
6.
The head injury
description (Table
1 p2 of 3)
certainly suggests that
Joshua Brown was seated
upright facing forward
at impact. The
bilateral lacerations on
the lower arm from the
elbow to the wrist may
indicate that he saw it
coming in the last
second and raised his
arms in an attempt to
protect his head. The
evidence reported
doesn't seem to suggest
he saw this early enough
to bend toward the
passenger seat and try
to pass underneath.
7.
About 40 feet of tractor
and trailer passed
directly in front of the
Tesla prior to impact.
Depending on how fast
the truck was traveling,
that takes some time.
Has NTSB run Virtual
Reality simulations of
various truck turn
trajectories and
analyzed what the truck
driver and the Tesla
driver could/should have
seen? Seems like a
relatively simple thing
to do. We know what the
Tesla was doing prior to
the crash (going 74 mph
straight down the road.)
and we know where it hit
the truck. How fast the
truck was traveling
doesn't seem to be
known.
8.
Why wasn't there any
video captured from the
Tesla. Didn't that
version of the MobilEye
system store the video;
I guess not, :-(
Anyway,
lots to read in the 500
pages, but there
is also a lot missing.
I'm not linking the many
articles reporting on
this because I disagree
with many of their
interpretations of the
facts reported by
NTSB. Please reach
your own conclusions.
Alain
May
18, Enormously successful
inaugural Summit starting with
the Adam
Jonas video and
finishing with
Fred Fishkin's
live interview with Wm. C
Ford III. In between, serious engagement among over
150 leaders from Communities
at the bleeding edge of
deployment, Insurance
struggling with how to
properly promote the adoption
of technology that may well
force them to re-invent
themselves and AI (Artificial
Intelligence) and the various
technologies that are rapidly
advancing so that we can
actually deliver the safety,
environmental, mobility and
quality of life opportunities
envisioned by these “Ultimate
Shared-Riding Machines”.
Save the Date for the 2nd
Annual... May 16 & 17,
2018, Princeton NJ Read
Inaugural Program with links
to Slides.
Fishkin Interview of Summit
Summary and
Interview of Yann LeCun.
Read Inaugural Program with
links to Slides. Hmmmm...
Enormous thank you to all
who participated. Well
done! Alain
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is
maintained by Alain
Kornhauser and hosted by
the Princeton
University
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