Monday, July 23, 2018
<img border="0" width="78" height="23" style="width:.8125in;height:.2395in" id="_x0000_i1054" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image002-1.png" alt="cid:part5.D5302DB0.CCA91DED@princeton.edu“>Transition To Autonomous Cars Will Take Longer Than You Think, Waymo CEO Tells Governors
S. Abuelsamid, July 20, "Speaking in a fireside chat at the National Governors Association meeting Friday, Waymo CEO John Krafcik told the gathering that the “time period will be longer than you think” for automated vehicles to be everywhere…"everywhere" makes the statement meaningless. … "“There are no autonomous systems available, zero on the road today,” said Krafcik. “Anything you can buy on the road today is a driver assist system, that means the driver is completely responsible for the car and I think there is so much confusion on that.”… Agree 100%! "…What Krafcik was referring to was some of the issues caused by consumers believing that the assist systems currently on the market are more capable than they actually are, …" …In particular the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) Systems on those vehicles and the perception that these vehicles have AEBs that are actually functioning (which in many cases they are not functioning) while the lane centering and intelligent cruise control systems are doing the nominal lateral and longitudinal control of the car. "…the problem is not unique to Tesla. Systems from Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other manufacturers have similar limitations.
…“We humans are becoming used to some of the semi-autonomous technology, and I don’t like that term that’s on the road, that’s driver assist technology,” added Krafcik. We still have to be completely alert and in control of the cars that were driving every minute, every second that we’re on the road driving.”…
Waymo’s goal is to replace that sort of technology with systems that don’t require any human supervision, something that the company decided several years ago was not a viable solution. Instead, Waymo plans to launch its automated ride hailing service commercially in the Phoenix area later this year and gradually expand to other cities as the technology continues to mature and is proven safe in those locations….Despite the rapid accumulation of testing miles, Krafcik warned the governors not to end all of their infrastructure investments just yet….Widespread adoption in the millions of vehicles globally is unlikely before the latter half of the 2020s" …Given that we are just in the hundreds of vehicles today, getting to millions in less than 10 years is fairly optimistic and not "longer than you think". A few million in the US would serve about 100 million person trips a day, or more than 10% of total personTrips,…more than twice that served by all public transit today. While that’s not "everywhere", everyone will not be more than one person removed from someone who is using aTaxis everyday…
"…. Krafcik was equally non-committal to Sandoval’s query about when he might be able to purchase his own car with Waymo technology. While Waymo and Fiat Chrysler are in talks about utilizing this virtual driver system on cars for retail sale, Krafcik said it’s going to be some time yet. The emphasis for now is the ride-hailing service, trucking and logistics and working with transit authorities. Supplying systems for personal use cars is last on the timeline…." Read more Hmmmm…. Amen!!! Driverless cars are mobility providing machines. "Mothballing" them by selling them to individuals who will use them "4% of the day" has to be last on everybody’s time-line. Plus those individuals are likely to be uninterested and incapable of properly maintaining them so they will become a public nuisance and public liability. Alain
F. Fishkin, July 22, "What to make of Waymo as it passes 8 million miles of automated driving on public roads? Princeton University’s Alain Kornhauser joins Fred Fishkin for Episode 48 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. This week… Waymo, Zoox, Embark, Nvidia and new reports from Brookings." Hmmmm…. Now you can just say "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!" . Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay. Alain
Real information every week. Lively discussions with the people who are shaping the future of SmartDrivingCars. Want to become a sustaining sponsor and help us grow the SmartDrivingCars newsletter and podcast? Contact Alain Kornhauser at firstname.lastname@example.org! Alain
<img border="0" width="46" height="53" style="width:.4791in;height:.552in" id="_x0000_i1052" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image004-1.png" alt="cid:part12.41C39EA1.7F13DE67@princeton.edu“>The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and Public Policy Planning for Autonomous Vehicles
B Grush & J. Niles, June 2018, "The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and Public Policy Planning for Autonomous Vehicles explores both the potential of vehicle automation technology and the barriers it faces when considering coherent urban deployment. The book evaluates the case for deliberate development of automated public transportation and mobility-as-a-service as paths towards sustainable mobility, describing critical approaches to the planning and management of vehicle automation technology. It serves as a reference for understanding the full life cycle of the multi-year transportation systems planning processes, including novel regulation, planning, and acquisition tools for regional transportation…." Read more Hmmmm…. This is a substantive textbook on the role, opportunities and implications of Driverless vehicles for cities. It is a serious publication aimed at researchers, planners, policy makers and practitioners. Most highly recommended. It is the antithesis of the articles in the Half-Baked section below. Enjoy! Alain
<img border="0" width="129" height="29" style="width:1.3437in;height:.302in" id="_x0000_i1051" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image005-1.png" alt="cid:part15.06C73E85.3651156A@princeton.edu“>$800 Million Says a Self-Driving Car Looks Like
A. Vance, July 17, "…Of the many self-driving … Driverlesst … car hopefuls, Zoox Inc. may be the most daring. The company’s robot taxi could be amazing or terrible. It might change the world—not in the contemporary Silicon Valley sense, but in a meaningful sense—or it might be an epic flop. At this point, it’s hard to tell how much of the sales pitch is real. Luckily for the company’s founders, there have been plenty of rich people excited to, as Hunter S. Thompson once put it, buy the ticket and take the ride….
It’s in the city, though, where Zoox really shines. The screens inside the vehicle show an overwhelming amount of information, as the computer vision software keeps tracks of cars, people, stoplights, and road markers all at the same time. Unlike many self-driving cars, it glides to stops. At an intersection with a left turn, it allows oncoming traffic to pass and then waits for some slow pedestrians. Overall, the vehicle performs so well that you forget no one is driving….
Zoox has managed to hire away hundreds of engineers from Tesla, Apple, Google, Ferrari, and Amazon.com, in large part because it offers a harder engineering challenge than anywhere else….Zoox, in essence, wants to beat Waymo at self-driving car technology, Tesla at electric vehicles, and Uber at ride-sharing. “If anything goes bad with one piece of that, you’re f—ed,” Levandowski says. “But they’ve heard that a billion times.” …" Read more Hmmmm…. Best insight yet on Zoox who remains focused on also designing/building the car as well as the driver and the fleet manager. Waymo gave up on the the designing/building the car. GM hasn’t really tackled the fleet manager (although has invested in Lyft). It is non-trivial to be a scholar, star athlete and a party animal. Some can do two. While many have tried, I’ve not known one that can do all three. Alain
<img border="0" width="132" height="18" style="width:1.375in;height:.1875in" id="_x0000_i1050" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image006-1.png" alt="cid:part18.99EC7D2E.D4A9DB7C@princeton.edu“>America’s commuting choices: 5 major takeaways from 2016 census data
A. Tomer, Oct 3, 2017, "While Americans travel for a variety of reasons, there’s arguably no more important trip each day than their commute to work….It’s impossible to look at American commuting habits and not report the obvious: Americans are still largely dependent on the automobile. Over 76 percent of Americans drive alone to work every day, while another 9 percent carpool with someone else. Considering that ACS counted 150 million workers in 2016, that’s at least 115 million cars and trucks hitting American streets every day. It’s no wonder congestion is so pervasive during morning and afternoon rush hours.
These driving rates come at a real cost to American households. Owning and maintaining a private vehicle is expensive, and one of the reasons transportation is the second-highest average expense after housing. With median incomes stalled in inflation-adjusted terms—and many metro areas seeing even deeper inclusion challenges—driving represents a significant cost burden for many….
<img border="0" width="530" height="418" style="width:5.5208in;height:4.3541in" id="_x0000_i1049" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image007-1.png" alt="cid:part20.B409364D.588C3572@princeton.edu“>
Read more Hmmmm…. Just a stark reminder of the importance of the private automobile in putting food on the table. Throwing in fact that half of the transit trips are in the NYC metropolitan area and if done on a personTripDistance basis, Drive alone would be well over 80%. Mobility’s societal challenges of congestion, energy utilization and pollution all stem from the "Drive alone". Even if all of the transit were to "Drive alone" their incremental contribution to those societal challenges would be less than 10% of what the current "Drive alone" currently contribute. Public policy can be most effective by first focusing on the current "Drive alone" and getting them do something other than "Drive alone". It isn’t easy, because work @ home isn’t an option, they live too far from work to walk or cycle, acceptable conventional public transit can not be affordably provided and conventional carpooling is too rigid. Eliminating the rigidity in carpooling and encouraging/incentivising ride-sharing not only with one’s private car but in the oversight on TNC operations may well be the best pubic policy options to address the "Drive alone" problem. Alain
<img border="0" width="32" height="32" style="width:.3333in;height:.3333in" id="_x0000_i1048" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image008-1.png" alt="cid:part22.80BA2DDC.2722E680@princeton.edu“>Taxing New Mobility Services: What’s Right? What’s Next?
S. Kim, July 23, "Transportation network companies (TNCs)—Uber, Lyft, and Via—are now established parts of many cities’ urban mobility systems. Given their popularity, they are also attractive targets for state and local policymakers looking for a way to fund transit and infrastructure, to establish parity with taxis … Why??? …, to cover regulatory costs … Reduce regulations …, and to support programs that improve equitable mobility … What’s un-equitable about it? TNCs deliver aaccessibility to a much larger share of the population. TNCs serve essentially any O-D pair any time, where as conventional transit serves few O-D pairs at very few times. Thus TNCs serve the many and conventional transit serves the very few. ….
Today, seven major cities and 10 states have some type of fee or tax on TNC trips. While it may be a straightforward way to raise revenue, these charges are often shortsighted budget exercises rather than deliberate public policy. As more states and cities consider taxes on TNC services, policymakers should be cautious and thoughtful about how their decisions affect transportation behavior. … affect quality of life of its citizens….
This uncertainty has pitted transit and new mobility advocates … transit advocates tend to be those who are enamored plus those that want others to use conventional transit … against each other in an unhelpful debate that has hindered new kinds of shared-service partnerships and collaborative thinking about the best way to get around increasingly congested places. As services like TNCs proliferate around the globe, it is important to understand what these fees are, what purpose they intend to serve, and how they fit into broader metropolitan transportation policies….
Can TNC taxes and fees offset negative effects of urban congestion?
TNCs are criticized for exacerbating congestion, particularly in busy downtown areas where they are routinely used for work trips. Despite the growing presence of TNCs on the streets, the vast majority of U.S. commutes are in privately owned, single-occupant vehicles (SOVs). Yet, no major city specifically taxes SOVs for their disproportionate impact. … excellent!!… …" Read more Hmmmm…. Cities should realize that TNCs are high quality public transportation (mobility offered to everyone to go anywhere for a reasonable price). Cities should be praising and even subsidizing TNC service. Cities might also work to encourage/incentivize real ride-sharing to make TNC service even more affordable, address congestion in a meaningful way and to help energy and environmental initiatives. TNCs improve quality of life to the mobility disadvantaged and as such should be championed and praised by cities rather that scorned and taxed. Alain
<img border="0" width="52" height="27" style="width:.5416in;height:.2812in" id="_x0000_i1047" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image009-1.png" alt="cid:part25.084D35CA.77256ACC@princeton.edu“>Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are driving 25,000 miles every day
k. Korosec, July 20, "Waymo, …has driven 8 million miles on public roads using its autonomous vehicles…. Waymo has self-driven 8 million miles on public roads, now at a rate of 25K miles per day. This real-world experience, plus over 5 billion miles in simulation, is how we’re building the world’s most experienced driver…. See video, <img border="0" width="155" height="188" style="width:1.6145in;height:1.9583in" id="_x0000_i1046" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image010-1.png" alt="cid:part28.324F9C70.686EA5FF@princeton.edu“>Read more Hmmmm… complements lead article. Alain
<img border="0" width="78" height="23" style="width:.8125in;height:.2395in" id="_x0000_i1045" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image002-1.png" alt="cid:part5.D5302DB0.CCA91DED@princeton.edu“>Robot Truck Upstart Embark Hauls In $30 Million To Take On Waymo And Uber
A. Ohnsman, July 19, "… Silicon Valley VC firm Sequoia Capital agrees and just led a $30 million Series B round for the San Francisco-based company, boosting total funding to $47 million for Embark two years after it was founded by Rodrigues and Brandon Moak, its CTO. The funds will help Embark’s fleet expand to 100 trucks from five, load them up with Velodyne lidar sensors, cameras, radar and computing system and compete for software talent…" See video
Read more Hmmmm…. Maybe, but there is a lot of heavy lifting to be done ahead and $47M isn’t that much. Alain
<img border="0" width="101" height="22" style="width:1.052in;height:.2291in" id="_x0000_i1044" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image011-1.png" alt="cid:part34.8F5A75E4.C7CCFA90@princeton.edu“>SELF-DRIVING CARS FINALLY GET AN EASY-TO-READ RULE BOOK
A. Davies, July 17, "FOR A SPECIES that would like to see self-driving cars stick to the letter of the law, we humans don’t make things easy. We let lane lines fade and stop signs fall down. We fail to mark speed limits and flag pop-up construction sites. For the most part, humans can handle this lack of clarity. For robots, it can be baffling.
So consider the AV Road Rules Platform a helping hand. The new effort, launched today by transportation analytics firm Inrix, is a tool that lets cities pull together all the rules they expect human drivers to follow, and translate them into a computer-friendly format that any self-driving developer can fold into its software. …" Read more Hmmmm…. Very interesting, but maybe fundamentally naive… The challenge will still be in the practical interpretation of the rules. Grey areas are substantial. At times, rules are meant to be broken!!! Alain
<img border="0" width="101" height="18" style="width:1.052in;height:.1875in" id="_x0000_i1043" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image012-1.png" alt="cid:part37.A5A87A63.FBA0155C@princeton.edu“>Lyft buys the biggest bike-sharing company in the US
S. O’kane, July 2, "Lyft has acquired Motivate, the bike-sharing company that operates Citi Bike in New York City and Ford’s GoBike program in San Francisco. Terms of the deal were not disclosed, though it was reported in June to be around $250 million.
Motivate, which Lyft says accounts for about 80 percent of bike-share trips in the US, also operates networks in Chicago; Boston; Washington, DC; Portland, Oregon; Columbus; and Minneapolis. Lyft says it “will invest to establish bike offerings in our major markets and pursue growth and innovation in the markets where Motivate currently operates,” but it’s unclear where or when it might expand beyond the cities Motivate is currently in. The company also did not share when Motivate’s bikes will be available in the Lyft app. “Together Lyft and Motivate will revolutionize urban transportation and put bike-share systems across the country on a path toward growth and innovation,” the company wrote in a blog post announcing the acquisition…." Read more Hmmmm…. I’ll admit it… I just don’t see the fit unless Lyft really doesn’t want its drivers to serve short rides and will then direct short ride request to the nearest bike stand. It just seems like a totally different market and clientele. ??? Alain
<img border="0" width="85" height="22" style="width:.8854in;height:.2291in" id="_x0000_i1042" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image013-1.png" alt="cid:part40.22F7C85C.4E0D6280@princeton.edu“>Nvidia Is Taking Over the Autonomous Driving Industry — Here’s How
B. Kenwell, July 20, "Why is Nvidia a likely winner? It doesn’t program the systems that pilot AVs nor does it make all the hardware components that may be commoditized in the future. But it develops all the necessary equipment to make autonomous driving efficient, safe and a reality. Nvidia is also quietly building an ecosystem that will thrive as autonomous driving gains traction over the years. How? Let’s break it down with a little help from Nvidia’s senior director of automotive Danny Shapiro.
I was able to catch up with Shapiro after it was announced that Daimler and Bosch selected the company to power to its mobility-as-a-service ambitions.
To start, Nvidia’s DRIVE Pegasus is the onboard source that makes self-driving cars a reality. It’s roughly the size of a license plate and Shapiro calls it the most energy-efficient solution in the market right now. The system can deliver 320 trillion deep learning operations per second. …" Read more Hmmmm…. Somewhat over the top, but nVIDIA is a very serious player. Alain
<img border="0" width="143" height="33" style="width:1.4895in;height:.3437in" id="_x0000_i1041" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image014-1.png" alt="cid:part43.1EBC9ED8.80FC1C1F@princeton.edu“>A Broad Look Into Autonomous Vehicles
A. Saadi, July 23, "
- A major shapeshift is underway in consumers’ sentiment towards self-driven cars.
- A dramatic decline in disengagements indicates that improvements are happening faster.
- My model attempts to estimate potential value of the autonomous vehicle market….
Read more Hmmmm…. Take a look, there may be something here for you. I put little credibility behind any of the consumer surveys because, to me, they all seem so flawed. The disengagement data from California is very important, but primarily to the development of Driverless. (AutoPilot, SuperCruise, Dystronic Plus, …, the Self-driving Systems, are not part of the California tests.) As far as Driverless goes, the data clearly shows that Google is way out in front, GM/Cruise a distant 2nd and the rest aren’t even in the same universe. The Market model fails to recognize the difference from Safe- (Automated Collision Avoidance), Self- (AutoPilot,…) and Driverless (Waymo, Cruise, Zoox, …) Alain
<img border="0" width="54" height="45" style="width:.5625in;height:.4687in" id="_x0000_i1040" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image015.png" alt="cid:part46.CEB7D4A2.A1ED5529@princeton.edu“>Driverless Rail Cars??
K. Pyle, July 11 "6 double decker railcars with 1 hour frequency. Would be an interesting study to compare that to autonomous, battery (electric) self-propelled, railcars with, say, 5 minute frequency with regards to capital & operational cost & customer experience. " Read more Hmmmm…. Many of us that travel know the experience. It is what we experience at any major airport. Can you imagine having to check a schedule or wait a half hour for a "6 car train" to go from one terminal to another or to get to baggage at any major airport. When is the last time that you checked a schedule to ride the Paris Metro or the London Tube? Frequency makes an enormous difference.
Why haven’t railroads done it?… Improving frequency isn’t all that important! If you’ve put up with the inconvenience of getting to AND from the stations, then modifying your schedule to the trains schedule is just a little insult that you have to put up with. In-frequency is all about cost of labor. The Westinghouse Sky Bus (Failure for cities more than 50 years ago, but savior of air travel) delivered frequency independent of costs beginning in 1971 at Tampa Airport. That enabled a revolution in air travel. The objective was getting to, from and between ever larger airplanes and the front door of an airport. Since the stations/stops are not actually the places people want to get from and to, getting between those points needed to be made as easy and frequent as possible; else, people wont use the airplane.
Also, unfortunately, the cost of automating Commuter Rail is perceived to be so much greater than any perceived benefits that could accrue to increased frequency that it isn’t even on anyone’s radar screen. That perception may not be correct. The Paris Metro is automating. All new metros being built are automated. At some point freight railroads may awaken to the virtues of on-demand (frequent) service which is enabled only by automation. The issue with railroads is how to best utilize its rail infrastructure. Is the future incremental revenue opportunity sufficient to offset the long-term capital costs of the investment required to automate the infrastructure?. Alain
<img border="0" width="62" height="26" style="width:.6458in;height:.2708in" id="_x0000_i1039" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image016.png" alt="cid:part51.5589EC3A.933EDEA9@princeton.edu“>Commuters will be able to use e-scooters at this N.J. train station
L. Higgs, July 23, " Uber came to New Jersey in 2013, CitiBike in 2015.
This fall, commuters in one suburban community will get the chance to try riding an e-scooter to travel between a train station and home. The borough of Madison and Boxcar Inc., a company that provides bus trips and parking through its app, are bringing the state’s first electric-powered scooters for commuters through a joint venture…." Read more Hmmmm…. Should be interesting to watch what happens. It could improve accessibility to the Madison station for Madison residents who don’t have a car to leave at the station (not likely to be many), but could improve the accessibility of destinations in Madison of "reverse commuters" and visitors (these are people that are probably "Driving alone" today). Alain
<img border="0" width="81" height="24" style="width:.8437in;height:.25in" id="_x0000_i1038" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image017.png" alt="cid:part55.6CA5C398.4ACD4FA5@princeton.edu“>MaaS Players Transforming into Mobility Ecosystem Providers
R. Citron, July 19, "Mobility as a service (MaaS) providers are increasingly integrating their business with other transport options through acquisitions, partnerships, and internal technology development….The next stage of transformation is likely to involve widespread and comprehensive levels of MaaS platform integration with public transit services. MaaS needs to be coordinated with mass transit services to ensure that optimal use is made of available road infrastructure while meeting the needs of the local community. Without this type of coordination, the potential improvements to congestion, safety, and cost could be squandered. Read more Hmmmm…. Hopefully so, but not just yet. I really doubt that the next time I request Lyft to take me to Newark airport Lyft is going to recommend that the driver just drop me off at Princeton Junction and have me take NJ Transit the rest of the way, even though that might actually be a faster, environmentally better and cheaper way to go. Alain
Interested in working in Toronto? Have a good background and interest in working on safety and security for autonomous driving vehicles and fleets? Contact Dr. Fengmin Gong, DiDi Labs
Half-baked stuff that probably doesn’t deserve your time
<img border="0" width="50" height="39" style="width:.5208in;height:.4062in" id="_x0000_i1035" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image018.png" alt="cid:part59.C7055AAF.ED374D85@princeton.edu“>Pave Over the Subway? Cities Face Tough Bets on Driverless Cars
E. Badger, July 20, "…" Read more Hmmmm…. There isn’t a sentence in the whole article that isn’t hyperbole from one end of the spectrum or the other. No one is looking to replace NYC’s subways, nor replace mass transit where mass transit exists today. Light rail isn’t antiquated, it is just a very expensive way to serve a few trips. Nashville, Indianapolis and Detroit don’t have the density. They aren’t Manhattan, nor even Brooklyn, Queens or the Bronx and probably don’t desire to be any of them. Is there a light rail system in the US that has exceeded, or even came close to achieving the projections of its proponents? (Have U.S. Light Rail Systems Been Worth the Investment?, Y. Fremark, Apr 10, 2014). This article may not even be Half baked. C’mon NYT, you can do better. Alain
<img border="0" width="101" height="18" style="width:1.052in;height:.1875in" id="_x0000_i1034" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image012-1.png" alt="cid:part37.A5A87A63.FBA0155C@princeton.edu“>Lyft buys the biggest bike-sharing company in the US
S. O’kane, July 2, "Lyft has acquired Motivate, the bike-sharing company that operates Citi Bike in New York City and Ford’s GoBike program in San Francisco. Terms of the deal were not disclosed, though it was reported in June to be around $250 million.
Motivate, which Lyft says accounts for about 80 percent of bike-share trips in the US, also operates networks in Chicago; Boston; Washington, DC; Portland, Oregon; Columbus; and Minneapolis. Lyft says it “will invest to establish bike offerings in our major markets and pursue growth and innovation in the markets where Motivate currently operates,” but it’s unclear where or when it might expand beyond the cities Motivate is currently in. The company also did not share when Motivate’s bikes will be available in the Lyft app. “Together Lyft and Motivate will revolutionize urban transportation and put bike-share systems across the country on a path toward growth and innovation,” the company wrote in a blog post announcing the acquisition…." Read more Hmmmm…. I’ll admit it. I just don’t see the fit unless Lyft really doesn’t want its drivers to serve short rides and will then direct short ride request to the nearest bike stand. It just seems like a totally different market and clientele. ??? Alain
<img border="0" width="81" height="24" style="width:.8437in;height:.25in" id="_x0000_i1033" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image017.png" alt="cid:part55.6CA5C398.4ACD4FA5@princeton.edu“>Navigant Research Leaderboard: Automated Driving Vehicles
Navigant, 1Q2018, "…
<img border="0" width="398" height="315" style="width:4.1458in;height:3.2812in" id="_x0000_i1032" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image019.png" alt="cid:part68.54543A37.8FCD6928@princeton.edu“>
…" Read more Hmmmm…. Must be an old graph. What is encompassed in "Automated Driving Vehicles"? What are the equations for the graph coordinates??? "Execution = ???"; "Strategy = ???" The only way that GM is ahead of Waymo in "Execution" is if "Automated Driving" includes more than Driverless (It also includes Self-driving and/or Safe-driving. Things that Waymo is not doing.)
Again, "Automated Vehicles" encompasses three very different markets: Safe-, Self- and Driverless. Navigant, or someone else,would be helpful if they put out leaderboards for each element of this "triathlon". Some participants are focused on one or two of the events (Waymo, Uber, Zoox (absent), and Navya on Driverless; Tesla on Self,; Volvo (absent) focused on Safe & Self and maybe only GM focused on all three. Anyway, what is graphed is at best good for a "Sunday Supplement" and not a serious publication. Alain
<img border="0" width="64" height="33" style="width:.6666in;height:.3437in" id="_x0000_i1031" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image020.png" alt="cid:part70.69023F48.6957C2C3@princeton.edu“>A Reality Check on Advanced Vehicle Technologies
C. Giffi, July 2018, "…the current pace of investment in advanced vehicle technologies can be described as a game of high-stakes poker where the players are all in, and the outcome is largely undetermined, though unlikely to favor everyone at the table…." That’s true of every poker game. This isn’t a Marxist game. A more interesting statement might have been "since we are so early in the evolution, is/are the ultimate winner(s) even at the table?… Considering the headwinds of slowing demand and cooling global conditions that threaten to derail several key automotive markets around the world, it is unlikely that OEMs, suppliers and technology companies will be able to sustain the frantic pace of capital allocation currently flowing into autonomous drive and electric powertrain development.
Going forward, the following three takeaways should be kept in mind …
- New business models will be necessary to capture a return…
- Keep a watchful eye on regulators and policy makers
- Don’t loose sight of the present while chasing the future"
Read more Hmmmm…. The last point is probably the best takeaway. Also, mixing the powertrain technology with the all automated vehicle technologies (Safe, Self & Driverless) is not helpful because they are each very different markets, deserving different investment approaches and different business models to capture the return. In the end, this report is not really helpful. Alain
C’mon Man! (These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
<img border="0" width="46" height="52" style="width:.4791in;height:.5416in" id="_x0000_i1027" src="http://smartdrivingcar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/image021.png" alt="imap://email@example.com:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.5&filename=lmjdiniodjkflpia.png”>
Catalog of Videos of Presentations @ 2nd Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Photos from 2nd Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Program & Links to slides from 2nd Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit