http://SmartDrivingCar.com/7.20-SoftBank-051219
20th edition of the 7th
year of SmartDrivingCars
April 26, F. Fishkin, "GM's Cruise gets ready to take on Google's Waymo and its new partnership Lyft. Meanwhile Uber's IPO stalls and Tesla restructures its autopilot team. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more on the coming week's Smart Driving Car Summit." Just say "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!" . Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
M. Issac, May 10, "Over the past decade,
Uber changed urban transportation,
disrupted entrenched taxi industries,
defied regulators the world over and beat
back questions about how it was altering
the nature of work.
On Friday, it was tamed by Wall Street.
The ride-hailing giant’s first day of
trading on the New York Stock Exchange
began with a drop from its initial public
offering price of $45, and its stock
closed down 7.6 percent. By the end of
Friday, Uber’s market capitalization,
accounting for stock options and
restricted stock, stood at $76.5 billion —
barely above the $76 billion that private
investors pegged it at in August. .." Read
more Hmmmm...
and see next...Alain
S. Grocer, May 10, "Uber has done
something that few other big technology
companies can claim: open below its
initial public offering price.
Shares of the ride-sharing company began
trading Friday at $42 a share, down 6.7
percent, and finished the day at $41.57,
well below the $45 at which it sold shares
to investors late Thursday.
How a stock trades in its debut is often
used to gauge the success of the offering
and investor sentiment about a company. If
a stock falls below its I.P.O. price on
the first day or even in the weeks that
follow, the offering is considered a flop
— a red flag that investors have concerns
about a company’s outlook.
Uber’s share performance capped several
months of falling expectations for its
offering. Investment bankers floated a
valuation of $120 billion last fall. A
month ago, Uber suggested to some
investors that its stock sale might value
it at up to $100 billion. About two weeks
ago, Uber set an expected price range that
would value it at up to $91 billion. (READ
MORE: Uber’s Stock Disappoints, Capping a
Rocky Path to Its I.P.O.)
Then on Wednesday, the guidance seemed to
be that it would be priced in the bottom
half of its offering range. On Thursday,
it sold the shares at a $82.4 billion
valuation, and by Friday’s close,
investors were valuing Uber at $76.5
billion. That was not far above the $76
billion that private investors had valued
it at in August.." Read
more Hmmmm...
See also... Uber’s
Stock Disappoints, Capping a Rocky
Path to Its I.P.O. especially figure
1,
Who’s
Getting Rich When Uber, Slack and
Other ‘Unicorns’ Go Public and Uber
Is Going Public: How Today’s Tech
I.P.O.s Differ From the Dot-Com Boom
(has excellent charts). My view is
that the killing of Elaine Herzberg
cost Uber at least $45B in valuation. Had it not happened,
Uber's Market cap would be above
$120B. That irresponsible action by
Uber (operating its self-driving car
in a domain where its Automated
Emergency Braking (AEB)
System was explicitly
turned off allowed possibly the most
expensive crash ever to occur. That's
just the loss to Uber. The "losses"
experienced by Waymo, GM_Cruise, Ford,
... and others adds to that number.
This is why Safety is
everyone's responsibility and why the
industry must work together to ensure
safety. Safety is absolutely in the
very best interest of each of these
companies. Being irresponsible is
very expensive and much more painful
than any public sector penalty (more than
the $33B
VW has had to pay so far for
DieselGate). Hopefully,
Elon Musk recognizes this
fact. Alain
A. Hawkins, May 7, "Lyft riders in the
Phoenix area will soon be able to summon
one of Waymo’s self-driving minivans for a
ride, the companies said Tuesday. It’s the
culmination of a partnership that was
first announced almost two years ago
exactly.
To start out, just 10 vehicles will be
available on Lyft’s app in the handful of
towns around Phoenix. Lyft customers will
have the option to select a ride in a
Waymo self-driving car through the
ride-hail company’s app. There will be
safety drivers behind the wheel, much like
with Waymo One, Alphabet’s commercial
ride-hailing service.
But despite looking limited on the
surface, it represents a pretty big leap
forward for both ride-hailing and
autonomous vehicles..." Read more Hmmmm... Yup! To
get anywhere, one must first start.
This is a real start. Waymo would not
be wasting its time if it wasn't a
start to something big. May even have
added to Uber's IPO woes. Some
rideHailing cars will always to have
an attendant along for some rides.
Why not it be a gig worker? Actually,
some Waymo Attendants could have just
signed up to be Lyft drivers and
brought along their Waymo Pacificas.
Lyft might have never known. Hey, I
may begin to do that with my Tesla 3
at the end of 2020 and collect cash
from Lyft while I play video games in
my parent's basement. And I won't
have to deal with Elon. :-)
Alain
Press release, AP, "Velodyne Lidar, Inc. today announced it is sponsoring the SmartDrivingCar Summit, which takes place on May 15-16 in Princeton, N.J. and brings together buyers, sellers, and facilitators of autonomous cars, trucks, and buses. At the summit, Velodyne will discuss and demonstrate their smart, powerful lidar solutions as an essential technology for autonomous vehicles (AVs) and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS)...." Read more Hmmmm... Very nice!! Alain
E. Witt, May 9, "Shortly before noon on Wednesday, several dozen rideshare drivers walked out of Los Angeles International Airport to hold a rally in a nearby park. The sky was gray, and a dull brightness bathed the parking decks and palm trees, the modernist street lamps and knotted traffic. The demonstrators held signs that read “Regulate Rideshares” and “Uber and Lyft Stop Stealing from People.” They waved these slogans toward an endless river of cars delivering passengers to their flights...." Read more Hmmmm... Talk about non-smooth Internet IPOs. Alain
News, May 7, "Two thirds of consumers (65
per cent) are concerned with the way
connected devices such as smart meters and
personal digital assistants collect data,
a new study finds.
A similar proportion think connected
devices are creepy in the way they collect
data about people and their behaviours and
more than half (55 per cent) do not trust
their connected devices to protect their
privacy. More than half (53 per cent) also
do not trust connected devices to handle
their information responsibly..." Read
more Hmmmm...
Not surprising. No one likes the
prospects of 1984?
IoT = 1984? IoT -> 1984? Alain
T. Lee, May 8, "Lyft and Uber drivers
around the world are striking on Wednesday
to protest low pay, arbitrary
terminations, and other concerns. The
protest comes just before Uber's debut as
a publicly traded stock on Friday.
The movement is decentralized, with
drivers' groups in different cities
organizing strikes and protests. Drivers
in some cities plan to disconnect for 24
hours, while in other cities drivers are
striking for only a couple of hours. In
New York, for example, drivers switched
off their apps during the morning rush
hour, from 7am to 9am.
There's a list of driver demands on the
website of Rideshare
Drivers United, a Los Angeles-based
drivers group. ..." Read
more Hmmmm...
True internet companies aren't
supposed to have these kinds of labor
challenges. Without Driverless, Uber
needs a 180 degree (or maybe even a
900 degree) pivot
in order to survive.
Alain
F. Lambert, May 7, "One of the main
concerns with self-driving vehicles is how
they will react to different climates and
weather conditions. Now we get an idea of
the potential as we take a look at what
Tesla Autopilot can see in a rainstorm at
night.... In a new video, verygreen is now
sharing footage showing what Tesla
Autopilot is able to detect during heavy
rain at night:... Those are not perfect
representations of what Tesla’s system is
able to detect through its sensor suite,
but it’s the best we have and it’s coming
from a third-party...." : Read
more Hmmmm...
Must see video 1,
video
2. Very impressive! Alain
A. Marshall, May 10, "...But the most
important activity Friday for Uber’s
future may happen 370 miles away, in
Pittsburgh, headquarters of the company’s
Advanced Technologies Group. If Friday is
like any other for ATG, autonomous vehicle
safety drivers will pilot a handful of
sensor-laden SUVs on short test trips
around the city’s Strip District. ... “I’m
not sure [automated vehicle tech] is
necessary for ride-hail companies to get
to profitability, but it does feel like
once they’re able to achieve that, then
they have an opportunity to be wildly
profitable,” says Barrett Daniels, a
partner in the national IPO practice at
Deloitte..." Read
more Hmmmm...
Without Driverless profitability
will require cutting back to serving
only "rich guys on an expense
account". The bet if you are a buyer
is that Uber will be first with
Driverless and that will happen soon;
else, you are a shorter. Alain
L. Kolodny, May 10, "Uber CEO Dara
Khosrowshahi told CNBC he agrees with
Tesla CEO Elon Musk that the future of
mobility is electric, but he disagrees
with Musk that truly autonomous
“robotaxis” will debut next year.
In an interview that aired on Uber’s IPO
day on Friday, “Squawk Box ” co-host
Andrew Ross Sorkin asked him what the
future of mobility looks like. ...
When the Uber CEO first heard Musk’s
predictions about this, Khosrowshahi said,
“I thought: If he can do it, more power to
him. Our approach is a more conservative
approach as far as sensor technology and
mapping technology. The software’s going
to get there. So I don’t think that his
vision is by any means wrong. I just think
we disagree on timing.”..." Read
more Hmmmm...
Whew!! That is not good coming from
Uber leadership. If he is wrong, Uber
loses. What Elon is foreseeing is an
absolute necessity for Uber to scale
to become sufficiently profitable.
(I'm assuming there is little
likelihood that Uber will beat Elon
getting there).
If he is right,
Uber loses. Uber can't scale
profitably soon enough to survive the
hemorrhaging.
( He never even hinted that he
might beat Elon to Driverless.).
Uber loses both
ways. Not a pretty sight. Alain
L. Bliss, April 29, "In 2017, the growing
Toronto exurb of Innisfil, Ontario, became
one of the first towns in the world to
subsidize Uber rides in lieu of a
traditional bus. Riders could pay a flat
fare of just $3-$5 to travel to community
hubs in the backseat of a car, or get $5
off regular fares to other destinations in
and around town.
People loved it. By the end of the Uber
program’s first full year of service, they
were taking 8,000 trips a month. Riders
like 20-year-old Holley Hudson, who works
for daycare programs at YMCAs around the
area, relied on it heavily, since she
doesn’t drive. To get to the college
course practicums she was taking when the
service launched, “I used Ubers on a
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday basis,” she
said.
Now “Innisfil Transit” is changing its
structure. As of April 1, flat fares for
the city-brokered Ubers rose by $1. Trip
discounts dropped to $4, and a 30-ride
monthly cap was implemented. Town leaders
say this will allow Innisfil to continue
to cover costs....“Uber was supposed to be
our public transit,” she said. “Now we
have to think about whether we can take an
Uber or not.”..." Read
more Hmmmm...
Unless it can get to Driverless, its
not going to scale. :-(Alain
S. Ranger, May 7, "...Highly
precise maps are vital for everything from
5G deployments to smart city planning and
autonomous driving projects.
For example, 5G signals are easily blocked
by common street features like signs,
hanging baskets, trees or bus
shelters...." Read
more Hmmmm...
Does anyone really believe such
statements? Vital??? If they are
essentially free, then maybe is some
"vital" places, but all streets...
half-baked. Alain
Hmmmm... Totally
irresponsible Click Bait by this
site. Do NOT go there and please, if
you happen to land there, boycott all
of their advertisers. Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt="" class="" width="89" height="52">
April 26, F. Fishkin, "VW unveils an Inclusive Mobility Initiative to help make future transportation better for all...a major theme of the upcoming Smart Driving Car Summit at Princeton. The University's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin tackle that...plus the latest of Uber, Tesla and more in Episode 102 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast!"
April 26, F. Fishkin, "Tesla shakes up autonomous mobility with a new chip and promises of what's to come. The assessment from Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in this edition. Plus...Elon Musk on LiDAR, Via makes an Earth Day statement and the latest on the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit. Less than 3 weeks away!"
April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"
April 5, F. Fishkin, "Here comes congestion pricing in New York City...but what will it mean? Former city Taxi and Limousine Commission head and transportation expert Matthew Daus joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Also...Tesla, VW and even Brexit! All on Episode 98 of Smart Driving Cars."
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
A. Krok, May 2, "You can't please all
the people all the time, but Volkswagen
wants to make sure that when it moves
into the next era of mobility, it won't
leave any groups behind.
Volkswagen this week unveiled its Inclusive
Mobility Initiative, which sees
the automaker working directly with
outside groups to ensure that its future
vehicles are capable of catering to
people with disabilities..." Read
more Hmmmm...This
is fantastic and may well be in line
with the focus we've taken with the
upcoming 3rd
Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit 10 days
from now. Our focus is on all
people who have been
marginalized by the
unnecessary/non-inclusive/exclusive
designs of our current forms of
mobility, . These designs are
especially irresponsible when one no
longer needs a person to drive... to
keep the car from crashing while on
its way from where people are to
where the want to go. What an
enormous opportunity to be of
service to so many that for what
ever reason don't want or can't
perform that task. Yes, there are
situations in which a professional
is required. At times, we all need
we all need that the help of a
professional. But for all of those
situations in which a professional
is not needed, we have an enormous
opportunity to be so much more
inclusive by removing the other
unnecessary exclusivities that have
consciously or unconsciously crept
into our cars and transit systems.
Our mobility systems no longer need
to be big and hold many people to
make them affordable, no driver
needs to be paid. They no longer
need to be constrained to only go
between the few places than many
want to go between at only certain
times. They can readily serve where
only a few, even one, want to go
between at whatever time. The skill
set needed to use and be served
diminishes to the skill set needed
by the easiest to use elevator. And
so on...
T. Lee. April 24, "There's an old joke in the software engineering world, sometimes attributed to Tom Cargill of Bell Labs: "the first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time."...
You can think of self-driving car
development as occurring in two
stages. Stage one is focused on
developing a static understanding of
the world. Where is the road? Where
are other cars? Are there any
pedestrians or bicycles nearby? What
are the traffic laws in this
particular area?
Once software has mastered this part
of the self-driving task, it should be
able to drive flawlessly between any
two points on empty roads—and it
should mostly be able to avoid running
into things even on crowded roads.
This is the level of autonomy Musk has
dubbed "feature complete." Waymo
achieved this level of autonomy around
2015, while Tesla is aiming to reach
it later this year....
In this second stage, a company also needs to handle a "long tail" of increasingly unusual situations: ...Waymo has spent the last three years in the second stage...
Tesla says that's a 21-fold
improvement over the Nvidia chips the
company was using before. Of course,
Nvidia has produced newer chips since
2016, but Tesla says that its chips
are more powerful than even Nvidia's
current Drive Xavier chip—144 TOPS
compared to 21 TOPS.
But Nvidia argues that's not a fair
comparison. The company says its
Xavier chip delivers 30 TOPS, not 21.
More importantly, Nvidia says it
typically packages the Xavier on a
chip with a powerful GPU chip,
yielding 160 TOPS of computing power.
And like Tesla, Nvidia packages these
systems in pairs for redundancy,
producing an overall system with 320
TOPS of computing power....
Regardless, both companies are working
on next-generation designs, so any
advantage either company achieves is
likely to be fleeting....", Read
more Hmmmm...
An absolute MUST read. Alain
J. Torchinsky, April 11, "For the first time ever, yesterday, SpaceX managed to land and recover all three of the Block 5 Falcon 9 rocket boosters that, when combined, form the Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. While the idea of vertically landing a rocket after launch for re-use has been around a while, SpaceX was the first to actually do it, and this triple-landing, part of the Arabsat-6A launch, is the first time three boosters from one launch have been recovered...." Read more Hmmmm... If you weren't watching live, then you must watch the video. 2 side landing @ T+7:30+ (also), center@ T+9:40+ See this aerial picture. See also [log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="59" height="17" border="0"> SpaceX Falcon Heavy Sticks Triple Rocket Landing with 1st Commercial Launch.
In the 70's, after putting a man on the moon, we felt empowered that technologically, everything was possible! However, going 3for3 on bull's eye landings on earth is totally mind boggling. Technologically, I'm fully confident we soon can have aTaxis serving the mobility disadvantaged throughout our communitie. But, do we have the the societal/political will to risk even trying. There simply may be too many gatekeepers of the status quo. Alain
M. Daus, Esq, April 1, "Over the weekend, the New York State legislature agreed to pass congestion pricing legislation as part of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s budget bill for FY 2020. The legislation was finalized in the early hours today, and the Governor is expected to sign the bill into law immediately. The toll is intended to reduce traffic congestion while raising $15 billion between 2020 and 2024 to fix NYC subways and commuter rails. Starting no sooner than December 31, 2020, motorists will be charged a toll to drive into Manhattan south of 60th street, excluding the FDR Drive and the West Side highway....
Only two categories of vehicles are specifically exempt from the law: emergency vehicles and qualifying vehicles transporting a person with disabilities. The law does not specify what qualifies as a “vehicle transporting a person with disability,” leaving any such determinations to the TBTA. A recent Bloomberg article discusses exemptions for people with disabilities (click here to review full article)..." Read more Hmmmm... Congratulations NYC!!! I've never understood why this isn't called "Value Pricing". Was it the SAE??? or is it just that I don't seem to ever like the semantics used by others? This has been a long time coming and is a tribute to William Vickery, the Canadian-born Columbia University Professor of Economics and Nobel Laureate who tragically passed away shortly after being announced as the winner of the 1996 award in Economics. Alain
Press release, March 19, "To ensure
self-driving cars are safely
integrated on New Jersey roads,
legislation sponsored by Assembly
Democrats Daniel Benson, Andrew
Zwicker and Pamela Lampitt to
establish a task force to evaluate
autonomous vehicles was signed into
law by the Governor Monday.
“As major auto companies explore
developing semi and fully autonomous
cars, we need to prepare for the day
when we’ll see only self-driving
vehicles on our roadways,” said Benson
(Mercer, Middlesex). “The goal of this
task force will be to assess how we
can introduce autonomous vehicles to
our roadways while keeping drivers
safe.”
The new mandate (formerly bill
AJR-164) creates the New Jersey
Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task
Force, comprised of eight members. The
panel will be responsible for
conducting a study of autonomous
vehicles and recommending laws, rules,
and regulations that the state may
enact to safely integrate these
vehicles on the roads..." Read
more
Hmmmm....
New Jersey is
now started.
Hooray!! Alain
A. Kornhauser, March 13, "The following testimony was provided to the New Jersey State Assembly’s Transportation and Independent Authorities Committee on Monday, March 11....
What we need, what my ask is, that we create in New Jersey a “welcoming environment” for the research, testing and demonstration of this technology and work to focusing it on improving the mobility of the mobility disadvantaged...
While such a demonstration is not
prohibited in New Jersey, it is not
permitted.
Consequently, this provides excuses
and hurdles to bringing such mobility
to our communities and tarnishes any
other welcoming efforts aimed at
enabling New Jersey to lead instead of
follow in what may well address the
fundamental objective of this
hearing." Read
more
Hmmmm....Seems
so simple. I
have found it
so incredibly
hard. Alain
Oct 16, Establishes
fully autonomous vehicle pilot program
A4573 Sponsors: Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes
New
Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle
Task Force AJR164 Sponsors:
Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt
(D6)
May 24, "About 9:58
p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an
Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle,
based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90
and operating with a self-driving
system in computer control mode,
struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill
Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County,
Arizona.
...The vehicle was
factory equipped with several advanced
driver assistance functions by Volvo
Cars, the original manufacturer. The
systems included a collision avoidance
function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well
as functions for detecting driver
alertness and road sign information.
All these Volvo functions are disabled
when the test vehicle is operated in
computer control..."
Read more Hmmmm....
Uber must believe that its
systems are better at avoiding
Collisions and Automated
Emergency Braking than Volvo's.
At least this gets Volvo "off
the hook".
"...According
to data obtained from the
self-driving system, the system
first registered radar and LIDAR
observations of the pedestrian
about 6 seconds before impact,
when the vehicle was traveling at
43 mph..." (=
63 feet/second) So the
system started "seeing an
obstacle when it was 63 x
6 = 378 feet away... more
than a football field,
including end zones!
"...As
the vehicle and pedestrian paths
converged, the self-driving system
software classified the pedestrian
as an unknown object, as a
vehicle, and then as a bicycle
with varying expectations of
future travel path..."
(NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when it
classified this
"object' as a vehicle
and be explicit about
the expected "future
travel paths." Forget the
path, please just tell us the
precise velocity vector that
Uber's system attached to the
"object", then the "vehicle".
Why didn't the the Uber system
instruct the Volvo to begin to
slow down (or speed up) to
avoid a collision? If these
paths (or velocity vectors)
were not accurate, then why
weren't they accurate? Why
was the object classified as a
"Vehicle" ?? When did
it finally classify the object
as a "bicycle"? Why did it
change classifications? How
often was the classification
of this object done. Please
divulge the time and the
outcome of each classification
of this object. In the
tests that Uber has done,
how often has the system
mis-classified an object
as a "pedestrian"when
the object was
actually an overpass,
or an overhead sign or
overhead
branches/leaves that
the car could safely
pass under, or was
nothing at all??
(Basically, what are
the false alarm
characteristics of
Uber's Self-driving
sensor/software system
as a function of
vehicle speed and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According
to Uber, emergency
braking maneuvers are
not enabled while
the vehicle is under
computer control, to
reduce (eradicate??)
the potential
for erratic
vehicle behavior.
..."
NTSB: Please
describe/define potential
and
erratic vehicle
behavior
Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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maintained by Alain
Kornhauser and hosted by the Princeton
University
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