L. Horsley, Jan 24, "President Donald Trump’s team
has compiled a list of about 50 infrastructure
projects nationwide, totaling at least $137.5 billion,
as the new White House tries to determine its
investment priorities,... Among the projects could be
a new terminal for the Kansas City airport, upgrades
to Interstate 95 in North Carolina (Hmmm... NC again, maybe some of
Foxx's down home projects will make it to the new
administration) and a proposal to
replace the nation’s radar-based air traffic control
system with one called NextGen, based on
satellites....a list of about 50 infrastructure
projects nationwide, totaling at least $137.5 billion.
Read
more Hmmm... which
produce 193,350
'Direct' job years and 241,700 'Indirect' job years.
Doing the arithmetic, that's $711K per direct
job-year ( or $316K per combined job-year.).
Those are expensive job-years! What is built had
better be something that doesn't require a
Washington (or other public-sector) subsidy to
keep it operating once it is built; else it would
be better just create 3 times as many (1.375M)
$100K welfare jobs-year and not be forever begging
for operating subsidies.
Well what's on the list...#
13 Texas Central RR, #23 Maryland Purple Line, #24
M-1 Rail, Detroit, #24 MBTA Green Line
Extension... all projects that, at best, have no
hope of being able to operate without perpetual
public subsidies. Moreover, each is likely to
have been made totally
obsolete by driverless MaaS systems before they
serve their first customer. Seems like some of
these infrastructure projects will be filling
rather than draining the swamp. So sad! Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan 14, "Orf467F16 Final Project Symposium quantifying implications of such a Nation-wide mobility system on Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO), energy, environment and congestion, including estimates of fleet size, needed empty vehicle repositioning, and ridership implications on existing rail transit systems (west, east, NYC) and Amtrak of a system that would efficiently and effectively perform their '1st mile'/'last-mile' mobility needs. Read more Hmmm... Now linked are 1st Drafts of the chapters and the powerPoint summaries of these elements. Final Report should be available by early February. The major finding is, nationwide there exists sufficient casual ridesharing potential that a well--managed Nationwide Fleet of about 30M aTaxis (in conjunction with the existing air, Amtrak and Urban fixed-rail systems) could serve the vehicular mobility needs of the whole nation with VMT 40% less than today's automobiles while providing a Level-of-Service (LoS) largely equivalent and in many ways superior than is delivered by the personal automobile today. Also interesting are the findings as to the substantial increased patronage opportunities available to Amtrak and each of the fixed rail transit systems around the country because the aTaxis solve the '1st and last mile' problem. While all of this is extremely good news, the challenging news is that since all of these fixed rail systems currently lose money on each passenger served, the additional patronage would likely mean that they'll lose even more money in the future. :-( Alain
January 2017, "Traffic accidents cost world economies billions each year, but with the development of autonomous driving technologies these costs could be reduced dramatically. Autonomous driving technologies are revolutionising the automotive industry with their promise to improve vehicle safety and reduce traffic accidents, but what is the monetary impact of this on GDP?...The US topped the list of 73 countries, where over $340bn is lost to traffic accidents each year, ..." Read more Hmmm... I like to quote the NHTSA study that claims that crashes (better term than 'accident') cause $871B/yr in economic loss, of which about 1/3 is 'audit-able cash' (which compares favorably with this study's $340B) and 2/3rds is 'pain & suffering economic loss'; meaning this study's global annual $1T might be as high as $3T/yr in global economic loss. What is interesting to me is that ~50% of this loss is avoided by the world-wide penetration of Safe-driving technology that is essentially in-hand. We don't have to wait for 'Driverless'. Given that Insurance pays for about 1/6th of the NHTSA number suggests that $0.5T/yr. in reduced insurance LOSS is on the table to be saved world-wide. That is 0.5 times ten to the 13th power US dollars per year! How insurance is not all-in promoting Safe-Driving Cars Trucks & Buses and thereby putting much of that $0.5T/yr in their own pocket is beyond me? I don't get it!?! Alain
Jan 18, "TomTom announced that it has acquired
Autonomos, a Berlin-based autonomous driving start-up.
The acquisition strengthens TomTom’s position in
autonomous driving. Autonomos has provided Research
& Development consultancy services for automated
vehicle assistance systems and has built up expertise
and technologies in the process, including a full
demonstration-level autonomous driving software stack,
3D sensor technology, and digital image processing.
The company was established in 2012 after the founders
had worked for several years in successful autonomous
driving research projects at the Free University of
Berlin...." Read
more Hmmm...
Navigation and its digital maps are necessary
parts in the reality of robust autonomous
driving. The extent to which additional precision
in digital maps benefits the robust reality of
precise stopping, collision avoidance and lane
centering remains up in the air. Alain
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
News, Jan 10, "...U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “I’m proud to announce this new automation committee, and look forward to seeing its members advance life-saving innovations while boosting our economy and making our transportation network more fair, reliable, and efficient.”... Read more Hmmm... Excellent!!! Congratulations Chris, Bryant, Missy and everyone else. Alain
M. Sena, Jan. 5, "In This Issue:
Report from Dispatch Central 1
"...While the 12 million people in the EU who
earn their livings directly from the
automotive industry are delighted by the news
that car sales figures for Novem-ber were up
significantly, and it looks like 2016 will be
another banner year, there are people in
governments doing everything in their power to
make both building and owning motorized
vehicles economically unviable..." Read
more Hmmm...Very
interesting!
Autonomous Driving News
Apple’s Letter to NHTSA 1 "...The
Vehicle Safety Act requires companies to
certify vehicles to the FMVSS (Federal Motor
Vehicle Safety Standards) before first sale.
But this law applies to new motor vehicles
intended for sale to the public, and by
implication, by companies that make and sell
cars, not companies like Apple that may or may
not intend to sell cars. Further, FAST Act2
specifically allows car makers, but not
non-car makers, to test on public roads
without requiring ex-emptions from FMVSS...Read
more " Hmmm... Very interesting!
What Car Companies Are Doing
2 "...So Uber must have made Volvo a pretty
sweet offer when it gets rid of all the
drivers with their own cars and has its own
fleet of driverless cars...Read
more"
Hmmm...Very interesting!
Reurbanization or Spreading
the Sprawl 3 "...Where do you want to
go? My chart below has two opposing scenarios.
In the top scenario, we keep doing what we
have been doing. In the bottom sce-nario, we
try to match policies with desired results.
You choose...Read
more" Hmmm...Very
interesting!
Automotive Navigation-The Future of Traffic
Info 4 "...ROUTE GUIDANCE WITHOUT
traffic information is useless..Read
more" Hmmm...Stop
right there. We've known that! The
connected world will not get here until
most of road vehicles are part of what
will be but a few competing fleets. It is
those fleet owners/managers that will
find it compelling to deploy connectedness
throughout their own fleets. Any
meaningful sharing of data between
competing fleets is not in any future that
I foresee. It may even violate anti-trust
laws (Unless Putin takes over the
world). Alain
Musings of a Dispatcher – Civilis
cogitationes 6 "...I did not see a lot
of people cycling to their jobs when I was in
Västerås in the early autumn of this year.
Like most places in Europe
and the U.S., when cars became affordable for
people with even modest incomes—starting in
the 50s in the U.S. and in the 60s in
Europe—it was a delight for workers to get out
of the rain and snow and into their own car.
It’s the same today in emerging markets,
especially China,.." Read
more Hmmm...Our
only hope is "Driverless"! Alain
J. Golson, Dec 19, "Chrysler has completed the 100 autonomous Pacifica minivans that will join the Waymo (née Google) fleet in early 2017. The vans, which are plug-in hybrid variants with Waymo’s self-driving hardware and software built in, are part of a partnership between Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and Waymo that was announced earlier this year.
Waymo CEO John Krafcik said last
week that his company is not interested in
“making better cars.” Instead, it wants to
make “better drivers.”..."
Read
more Hmmm...Nice
that these vehicles are targeted to a
ride-sharing market (more seating capacity
and easier in&out than the
Prius/Lexus/Bug.)
However,
the quote by John Krafcik is VERY
troubling. To make "better drivers" all
one needs is Automated Collision Avoidance
systems (or what I've termed 'Safe-driving
cars'). That is indeed a laudable goal;
however, that goal can be reached with a
lot less hardware and software than what
is in these modified Pacificas
(which have a conventional steering
wheel, brake
& throttle pedals and driver's
seat). But
Safe-driving cars aren't helpful to the Steve
Mahan's of this world (or to the
young, or the Ubers or enable the Modified
Pacifica's to offer inexpensive
high-quality shared-ride on-demand
mobility to all. Most unfortunately,
what all of the extra gizmos on the
modified Pacificas enable is for the
driver to be better able to consume Google
Ads for part of his/her time trapped in
this vehicle. So a more honest quote
might have been: it wants to make "better
drivers who can better consume Google
Ads." No wonder Chris bailed! :-( Alain
R. Mitchell, Dec 6, "Silicon
Valley voted heavily for Hillary Clinton, but
companies working on driverless cars seem
overjoyed with President-elect Donald Trump’s
nominee for Transportation secretary, Elaine
Chao. Chao will wield great power over how
driverless cars and other automated vehicles
will be regulated — or not....Industry
insiders say they don’t want Chao to ignore
driverless car policy....
Instead, they hope to avoid a patchwork of
differing and conflicting rules across the 50
states. “This should be centralized,” said
Alain L. Kornhauser, director of the
transportation program at Princeton University
and an autonomous vehicle expert, “but that
doesn’t mean the states don’t play a part. It
would be better if we had a common
understanding....” Read
more Hmmm... Yup! Alain
J, Yoshida, Nov 15,
"...Qualcomm’s pending takeover of NXP
Semiconductors isn’t making the path to V2X
any clearer.
NXP remains a staunch advocate for DSRC-based
V2X (as demonstrated via truck platooning on
Munich roads last week during Electronica).
Qualcomm, a leading voice and force behind the
progress of the cellular standards, is
sticking to its cellular radio
technology-based V2X evolution...We see this
as a continued cellular revolution with new
elements coming in... " Read
more Hmmm...V2X
is important, but primarily as a
complement to vehicle-centered automated
collision avoidance and not as a
centralized orchestration of individual
vehicles. Finally seeing this as: "We see this as a continued
cellular revolution with new elements
coming in..." may bring some
reality to V2X. Alain
B. Grush, Oct. 2016, "Two
contradictory stories about our transportation
infrastructure are currently in circulation.
One is that Ontario’s aging, inadequate and
congested infrastructure is perennially unable
to catch up with a growing and sprawling GTHA.
The other is that vehicle automation will soon
dramatically multiply current road capacity by
enabling narrower lanes, shorter headways and
coordinated streams of connected vehicles to
pass through intersections without traffic
signals to impede flow.
Since the premature forecast of peak car in
2008 and now the hype surrounding the
automated vehicle, we are often told that we
have enough road capacity; that shared robotic
taxis will optimize our trips, reduce
congestion, and largely eliminate the need for
parking. This advice implies we need wait only
a few short years to experience relief from
our current infrastructure problems given by
decades of under-investment in transportation
infrastructure.
This is wishful thinking. Vehicle automation will give rise to two different emerging markets: semi-automated vehicles for household consumption and fully automated vehicles for public service such as robo-taxi and robo-transit. These two vehicle types will develop in parallel to serve different social markets. They will compete for both riders and infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to look at why and how government agencies and public interest groups can and should influence the preferred types and deployment of automated vehicles and the implication of related factors for planning..." Read more Hmmm...Bravo! The Key Findings & Recommendations are excellent. This is an excellent report (but it largely misses goods movement.) Especially 5.1 (read 'semi-autonomous' as 'Self-driving' and 'full-automation' as 'Driverless'. My view: Driverless may well be at the heals of Self-driving because it is a business play rather than a consumer play. Driverless will be ordered by the hundreds or thousands rather than individually.) and, of course Ch 10: Ownership (the business model) is more important than technology. Alain
September 2016, "Executive
Summary...For DOT, the excitement around
highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with
safety. (p5)
...The development of advanced
automated vehicle safety technologies,
including fully self-driving cars, may prove
to be the greatest personal transportation
revolution since the popularization of the
personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)
...The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)
...The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6) Hmmm...Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY. We all have recognized safety as a necessary condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful. (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition. Alain
"...we divide the task of
facilitating the safe introduction and
deployment (...defines “deployment” as the
operation of an HAV by members of the public
who are not the employees or agents of the
designer, developer, or manufacturer of that
HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm...Perfect! Alain
"...2. Model State Policy (p7)
The Model State Policy confirms that States
retain their traditional responsibilities...but... The
shared objective is to ensure the
establishment of a consistent national
framework rather than a patchwork of
incompatible laws..." Hmmm...
Well done. Alain
"...3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) ... This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to..." Hmmm... Excellent. Alain
"...4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)...The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)..." Hmmm... Yes. Alain
"...I. Vehicle
Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles
(p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant
within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework
and maintains a conventional vehicle design,
there is currently no specific federal legal
barrier to an HAV being offered for
sale.(footnote 7) However,
manufacturers and other entities designing new
automated vehicle systems
are subject to NHTSA’s defects, recall and
enforcement authority. (footnote 8) . and the "15
Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance"
p17)
In sum
this is a very good document and displays
just how far DoT policy has come from
promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized
control, "connected", focus to creating
an environment focused on individual
vehicles that responsibly take care of
themselves. Kudos to Secretary Foxx for
this 180 degree policy turn focused on
safety. Once done correctly, the HAV
will yield the early safety benefits that
will stimulate continued improvements
that, in turn, will yield the great
mobility, environmental and
quality-of-life benefits afforded by
driverless mobility.
What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit. NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines. FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight. Alain
Sunday, August 28, 2016Hmmm...What we know now (and don't know):