http://SmartDrivingCar.com/6.51-PlayItSafe-112918
51st edition of the 6th year of SmartDrivingCars
A. Efrati,
Nov 27, "Waymo
has only weeks
to meet its
self-imposed
deadline to
launch a
public taxi
service using
fully
automated cars
by the end of
2018. And
right now,
that deadline
looks tough
for the
company to
meet. The
Information
has learned
that within
the past month
or so, due to
concerns about
safety, the
Alphabet
company put
so-called
“safety
drivers” back
behind the
wheel of its
most advanced
prototypes,
ending a
year-long
period in
which those
people
generally sat
in the
passenger or
back seat.
Meanwhile, The
Information
also has
learned that
Waymo is only
testing its
most advanced
prototypes in
about 60
square miles,
or roughly 5%
of the Phoenix
metropolitan
area, say
people with
knowledge of
the
situation...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... No problem. 5% is a very large area in
which to
start. And
having
attendants
onboard is
also OK, in
the
beginning.
Not much would
be saved or
gained by
removing them
(except some
machoism which
has no real
value.). It
is the only
way to go in
the beginning
because safety
is
fundamentally
critical and
much still
needs to
learned and
improved.
Once safety
has been
demonstrated
in this "5%"
the attendants
can disappear
and can move
on to be
attendants in
the next 10%,
and so on...
This is the
responsible
market launch
scenario.
Alain
Chunka Mui,
Nov 27, "Will
the future of
driverless
cars rhyme
with the
history of the
Segway? The
Segway
personal
transporter
was also
predicted to revolutionize
transportation.
Steve Jobs
gushed that
cities would
be redesigned
around the
device.
John Doerr
said it would
be bigger
than the
Internet.
The Segway
worked
technically
but never
lived up to
its backers’
outsized hopes
for market
impact.
Instead, the
Segway was
relegated to
narrow market
niches, like
ferrying
security
guards,
warehouse
workers and
sightseeing
tours.
One could well
imagine such a
fate for
driverless
cars (a.k.a.
AVs, for
autonomous
vehicles). The
technology
could work
brilliantly
and yet get
relegated to
narrow market
niches, like predefined
shuttle routes
and slow-moving
delivery
drones.
Some narrow
applications,
like interstate
highway
portions of
long-haul
trucking,
could be
extremely
valuable but
nowhere near
the
atmospheric
potential
imagined by
many—include
me, as I
described, for
example, in “Google’s
Driverless Car
is Worth
Trillions"...."
Read
more Hmmmm...
Excellent (but
, of course, I
have a dfew
comments... Safety
is paramount
(in my view.
I assume that
Chunka either
implies it in
his "Trust"or
sees it as so
paramount that
it is implied
as part of
his "technical
feasibility"
which
overarches
everything.
I see two
worlds... one
which is
largely what
we have now
except there
is more
automation
beyond an automatic
transmission.
This world
really doesn't
changed
much.... The
2nd world in
which we have
safe (must
necessarily
be, else DoA)
Driverless
Mobility/Transportation
aaS. I look
at Chunka's 15
hurdles as
this
Driverless
(very
appropriately
termed)
world. I
don't see the
need, nor
desire (nor
maybe even
operational
feasibility)
for personal
ownership of
these anymore
than I see a
need/desire/feasibility
to have a
personal
ownership of
my own
private
elevator in my
High-rise
apartment
building
(unless I'm
The Donald).
Else, I love
the15
hurdles.
Alain
F. Lambert,
Nov 29,
"Tesla’s
global fleet
recently
reached half a
million
vehicles, and
all of them
added over the
past three
years have
been equipped
with Autopilot
hardware,
which has been
gathering data
for Tesla’s
driver assist
program.
The automaker
now says that
the Tesla
owners have
driven 1
billion miles
with Autopilot
activated as
of today.
Tesla says
that it
represents
“10% of the
total mileage
driven by
Tesla vehicles
to date”, but
it doesn’t
mean that
current Tesla
drivers use
Autopilot for
1 in 10
miles. It’s
10% of all the
mileage of
Tesla’s fleet,
including
vehicles that
were not
equipped with
Autopilot
hardware and
those that
have the
hardware, but
the owners
didn’t buy
Autopilot.
As we reported
earlier this
month, Tesla
recently
reached 10
billion
electric miles
with a global
fleet of half
a million
cars. Now
we’ve learned
that 1 billion
of those miles
have been
driven with
the help of
Autopilot...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... This is a totally impressive accomplishment
and
demonstrates
that this Self-driving
system does
work and is
used
responsibly.
I doubt that
"conventional
cruise
control" is
used 10% of
the miles that
cars so
equipped are
driven. (I
know of no
reporting of
this
statistic.
I'm also
unaware that
any "roadway
authority" has
ever posted a
sign
encouraging
users of their
roadway to use
conventional
cruise control
(even though
use of such
technology
might actually
smooth out
traffic flow,
increase
capacity and
save
energy)).
All these data that Tesla has captured reveal
which road
segments,
under which
weather/roadSurface/congestion
conditions,
AutoPilot
works really
well, and
where it is
"challenged".
Will that
information be
made available
to AutoPliot
owners/users
enabling them
to use
AutoPilot even
more
responsibly
and to the
"roadway
authorities"
so that they
can improve
the
"paint/geometry"
of their
"challenged"
road
segments? Wouldn't it be nice!!!
By the way, what are the equivalent statistics for"equivalent" systems from GM, Daimler, Subaru, Volvo, ... ????? (or do these entities sell you their system and hope that you'll never use it?? Each sold us conventional cruise control, but never seemed to have followed up to see if used it. Daimler has never asked me about my experiences with my "997 package". Have they ever asked anyone?? Alain
M. Sena,
Dec 2018, "ON
OCTOBER 1ST,
VERIZON, the
largest mobile
network
oper-ator in
the U.S.,
began offering
installation
of its 5G home
broadband in
Sacramento, CA
with Houston,
Indianapolis
and Los
Angeles to
follow.
Customers will
be able to
begin
receiving
service once
the
installation
of small cells
on util-ity
poles and
street lights
is complete,
with pricing
set at $50 for
VERIZON
WIRELESS
customers and
$70 for
non-cus-tomers.
Those prices
include all
taxes and fees
and do not
require an
annual
contract.
Customers who
sign up for 5G
home broadband
service in the
selected areas
can expect
bandwidth
speeds of
around
300Mbps, with
peak speeds of
nearly 1Gbps
depending on
location....
ON THE 3RD
OF OCTOBER,
2018, the U.S.
Department of
Trans-portation issued Preparing for the Future of Transporta-tion:
Automated
Vehicles 3.0
(AV 3.0).5 A
news release
in-cluded the
statement that
“this document
builds upon
Au-tomated
Driving
Systems: A
Vision for
Safety 2.0
(ADS 2.0)
(released on
12 September
2017 and
reported on in
the November
2017 issue of
THE
DISPATCHER)
and expands
the scope to
provide a
framework and
multimodal
ap-proach to
the safe
integration of
AVs into the
Nation’s
broader
surface
transportation
system.”... "
Read
more Hmmmm...
Another
excellent
Dispatcher.
Thank you,
Michael.
Alain
M. DeBord,
Nov. 27, "NO
ONE AT THE
WHEEL
Driverless
Cars and the
Road of the
Future By
Samuel I.
Schwartz
272 pp.
PublicAffairs.
$30.
An appalling
statistic
appears toward
the end of “No
One at the
Wheel,” Samuel
Schwartz’s
valuable
primer on
self-driving
cars: In the
century since
the automobile
arrived on the
scene, 70
million people
have been
killed by it,
and four
billion
injured.
Schwartz, who
served as New
York City’s
traffic
commissioner
in the 1980s,
was nicknamed
“Gridlock Sam”
for his
devotion to
the conundrum
of traffic
(and for
coining the
loathsome
term). He
knows
everything
about how cars
and people
don’t get
along, having
been on the
front lines.
This book —
written in an
earnest,
conversational
style — is his
attempt to
grapple with a
fresh threat
that’s
appeared after
decades of
progress...."
Read more
Hmmmm.... Well worth reading. Alain
N.
Mayersohn, Nov
27, "The
relentlessly
hyped arrival
of autonomous
vehicles looms
as the
greatest
disruption in
personal
transportation
since Henry
Ford’s moving
assembly line
started
producing
Model T’s by
the millions.
One word in
that statement
— arrival —
is, however,
doing a
disproportionate
amount of
work.
Self-driving
vehicles,
despite being
the subject of
breathless
media reports
and in
automakers’
strategies,
remain years
from being
available to
private
owners. Scores
of companies hold
permits to
test
autonomous
cars in
California,
yet even
leaders like Waymo, once Google’s self-driving project,
are unwilling
to commit to
when such
vehicles might
be appearing
in
showrooms...."
Read more Hmmmm.... 1st... Waymo's Driverless won't be
appearing in
any showroom
in my lifetime
and likely
never. These
are mobility
machines that
most anyone
can use. They
are totally
unsuited for
selfish
personal
ownership. The
Self-driving
versions, that
by their
fundamental
nature require
capable adult
supervison, are
personal/self
mobility
machines and
are now widely
available in
showrooms
(Volvo,
Mercedez,
Subaru,
Tesla's
virtual
showrooms,
etc.) and work
(see
above).
But these are
two VERY
different
"animals" that
should NOT be
confused, just
like a cat
should NOT be
confused with
a tiger just
because they
are both
animals. Or
an amoeba and
a human
because they
are
free-living
organisms.
The press
needs to stop
suggesting
that having
tigers as pets
or the
admission to
Princeton by
amoebas
"remains
elusive". Alain
G. Fowler,
Nov 29, "...
But in this
Waymo, there's
actually still
a human in the
driver's seat.
Why's that?
That guy is
our safety
monitor. even
though Waymo
says it can
run cars
without humans
inside, for
most ...all???...
rides it's
still paying
people to sit
there and take
over if
needed.
Sometimes,
there's an
additional
Waymo
assistant in
the car, too.
..." Read
more Hmmmm.... So in fact, Waymo is still where Uber was in
Pittsburgh 2
years ago.
Progress is
being made, we have ignition,
but we haven't
reached liftoff.
Not likely to
have a real
liftoff in
2018. Really
want to
avoid... "obviously
a major
malfunction"...
Alain
P. Keller, Nov 2018, "...Questions have been raised over whether the technology is “ready” to provide all of the benefits that have been touted for so long. Although the industry is trying to tackle some of these concerns, the role that lawmakers and local authorities will have in this process will and should be considerable. To be sure, there are only a few global, standard rules governing automobiles, and even fewer addressing autonomous vehicles. One of the few examples is the Vienna Convention on Road Traffic. Since 1968, this treaty has required that a human driver be in full control of and responsible for the behavior of the vehicle in traffic. This requirement, however, is now being revisited all over the world, as individual regions are tailoring their laws to reflect their own, local balance between safety and the development and use of self-driving vehicles.
The
resulting
panoply of
rules could
not be more
varied: Read
more Hmmmm.... Excellent status report of world wide
regulation of
AV. Alain
J. Holman, Nov 2018, "This report examines United States motor vehicle accident (MVA) deaths during 1999-2016. The Society of Actuaries pursued the research as part of its ongoing longevity and mortality research initiatives. The objective of this research is to produce a long-term overview of these accident fatalities that may aid in a better understanding of them to support managing the selection and underwriting of insured risk. The report gives an overview of MVA deaths and analyzes them by person involved, age, gender, region, vehicle type, alcohol impairment, and by time series patterns. ...
...The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reports, per data in the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER), that in 2016 MVA deaths were 25% of all accidental deaths, which placed them second to poisonings as the highest accidental cause of death."...
... Total annual deaths have declined from 41,717 in 1999 to 37,461 in 2016 (see Section 2.1 Figure 2). This is a 10.2% decrease that is equivalent to an annual 0.6% improvement (average geometric mean basis)." ... disregard that "average geometric mean" because... "During 1999 to 2016, MVA deaths increased slightly to a peak of 43,510 in 2005, declined to a low of 32,479 in 2011, and since resumed an increasing trend to current levels. Most recently, MVA deaths increased by 5.6% in 2016 versus 2015. ...
... The
decrease of
passenger
deaths was
much higher
than that of
drivers. This
occurred
because
drivers
carrying
passengers had
much lower
fatal accident
involvement
rates, about
five to ten
per 100,000
drivers
depending on
age, than
those driving
alone. The
subset of
drivers
carrying
passengers
experienced
about the same
rate of
improvement as
their
passengers. "
...
Sounds like
another good
reason to
ride-share....
...." Read
more Hmmmm.... Very interesting, but given that over this
period NHTSA's
crash
mitigation
initiatives
became more
commonplace.
This adoption
that likely
resulted in
saving the
lives of many
involved in
severe
crashes. A
severe crash
in 1999
involving a
car without
the advanced
crash
mitigation
technology
might have
resulted in a
fatality.
That same
crash in 2016
involving a
car with
advanced crash
mitigation
technology
might not have
resulted in a
fatality, but
instead a
severe
injury. What
doesn't seem
to be known is
the historical
frequency and
liability
implications
between 1999
and 2016 of
the various
types of
crashes that
resulted in
deaths in
1999.
Why this is important is ..
J. Glanz,
Nov 27, "Data
from the
jetliner that
crashed into
the Java Sea
last month
shows the
pilots fought
to save the
plane almost
from the
moment it took
off, as the
Boeing 737’s
nose was
repeatedly
forced down,
apparently by
an automatic
system
receiving
incorrect
sensor
readings.
The
information
from the
flight data
recorder,
contained in a
preliminary
report
prepared by
Indonesian
crash
investigators
and scheduled
to be released
Wednesday,
documents a
fatal
tug-of-war
between man
and machine,
with the
plane’s nose
forced
dangerously
downward more
than two dozen
times during
the 11-minute
flight. The
pilots managed
to pull the
nose back up
over and over
until finally
losing
control,
leaving the
plane, Lion
Air Flight
610, to
plummet into
the ocean at
450 miles per
hour, killing
all 189 people
on board...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... See also First
Look at JT610
Flight Data.
Here we have a situation in which there was
redundancy...
two angle of
attack (AoA)
sensors.
Unfortunately,
they didn't
agree, and it
seems as if
the "AI" had
no way to tell
which was
correct, which
was faulty or
neither.
Lesson...
having
redundant
sensors
without the
ability to
address what
to do when
they disagree
is doomed to
failure. What
should have
been done in
this situation
may well be as
simple as...
if they
disagree,
believe
neither and
revert to a
situation that
doesn't
require the
sensor. (That
doesn't
address the
situation when
both are
equally
inaccurate,
but hopefully
that is a very
very rare
occurrence.)
(Also, the AI
wasn't smart
enough to
assess the
data streams
from the AoAs
during the
taxi phase
before
takeoff. If
so, the AI
would have
noticed that
the data
streams
disagreed, one
giving values
that are
unrealistic
while rolling
along the
ground and
that the
unrealistic
one was
substantially
drifting
during taxi.
The AI should
have made this
known to the
pilots prior
to takeoff.
In hindsight,
vision is
20-20:-),...
but there is
next time. :-) Alain
E. Kinetz,
Nov 29, "When
Shan Junhua
bought his
white Tesla
Model X, he
knew it was a
fast,
beautiful car.
What he didn’t
know is that
Tesla
constantly
sends
information
about the
precise
location of
his car to the
Chinese
government.
Tesla is not
alone. China
has called
upon all
electric
vehicle
manufacturers
in China to
make the same
kind of
reports —
potentially
adding to the
rich kit of
surveillance
tools
available to
the Chinese
government as
President Xi
Jinping steps
up the use of
technology to
track Chinese
citizens...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... I'm so surprised!! Tell me it ain't so.
"...Chinese officials say the data is used
for analytics
to improve
public safety,
facilitate
industrial
development
and
infrastructure
planning, and
to prevent
fraud in
subsidy
programs.
..." Whew!!! Alain
N. Boudette, Nov 26, "General Motors will cut up to 14,000 workers in North America and put five plants up for possible closure as it abandons many of its car models and restructures to focus more on autonomous and electric vehicles, the automaker announced Monday." Read more Hmmmm.... So the new jobs are in SmartDrivingCars ....See also... The existential threat facing the auto industry and Wall Street Reacts Favorably To GM Layoffs, Plant Closures This has nothing to do with SmartDrivingCars, if Waymo executes a successful lift-off, then ...." See also... GM axes Volt, Cruze, and Impala for North America in cost-cutting move See also... The existential threat facing the auto industry "... That's because the way people get from Point A to Point B is about to undergo the most radical change since the early automobiles replaced horses. Autonomous driving vehicles are about to change how cars are driven, powered and used. In the future, far more people will probably buy rides, rather than cars... "We see these steps as necessary to ensuring the long-term sustainability and independence of GM," wrote Adam Jonas, auto analyst for Morgan Stanley, in a note to clients.... ." T Alain
R. Chan,
Nov 28,
"Amazon Web
Services, the
retail giant's
massively
profitable
cloud
computing
business, is
hitting the
gas pedal on
its push into
artificial
intelligence
in an unusual
way. Andy
Jassy, CEO of
Amazon Web
Services,
announced AWS
DeepRacer: A
remote
controlled
car, retailing
for $400 when
it becomes
available next
year, that
developers can
program to
drive itself.
This car is
now available
to pre-order
on Amazon at a
special
introductory
price of $249.
This
radio-controlled,
four-wheel
drive vehicle
is 1/18th the
size of an
actual car.
It's trained
using
reinforcement
learning, an
AI technique
that means the
car will learn
to drive
better through
trial and
error. The car
is rewarded
for staying on
the track,
avoiding
obstacles and
more, helping
the car to
learn to drive
more
accurately
over time....
Importantly,
the same
principles
used to train
DeepRacer
could also be
used to
program
real-life
self-driving
cars that
could carry
humans or
cargo...." Read
more Hmmmm.... Did Business Insider turn into The Onion??? Just because one might
be able to
learn in a
vacuum by
randomly
correcting
when one makes
mistakes, this
is a really
naive, (I'm
being nice)
and not even
close to
"optimal", way
to acquire
intelligence.
Hopefully
anyone that is
seriously
trying to
program
driverless
cars is using
more
intelligence
in their
code. If,
what is being
developed is
only for self-driving
cars, they'd
better make
sure that the
adult
supervision
always alert
and able to
intervene. For
Driverless,
this approach
is sophomoric,
at best. Alain
3rd
Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit
evening May
14 through May
16, 2019
Save the Date; Reserve your Sponsorship
Catalog
of Videos of
Presentations
@ 2nd Annual
Princeton
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SmartDrivingCar
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& Links to
slides from
2nd Annual
Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
F. Fishkin, Aug 26, "The impact of the Hitch service murders in China on ride sharing, Toyota's investment in Uber and the issue of who controls data...are the focus of Episode 54 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin are joined by The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena."
F. Fishkin, July 27, "When will we shift from buying cars to buying rides? In Episode 49 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, entrepreneur, speaker and co-author of "The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and Public Policy Planning for Autonomous Vehicles" ...Bern Grush joins co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton and Fred Fishkin. That along with the latest on Ford, Waymo, Uber and more."
F. Fishkin, May 10, "The continuing Uber crash investigation, Waymo and Ohio rolls out the welcome mat for the testing of self driving cars. All that and more in Episode 38 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This week Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by Bryant Walker Smith of the University of South Carolina and Stanford. Tune in and subscribe!"
F. Fishkin,
Apr 4, "
Waymo is
making it
real! In
Episode 33 of
the Smart
Driving Cars
Podcast, hosts
Fred Fishkin
and
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser are
joined by
Michael Sena,
publisher of
The Dispatcher
newsletter.
Take a deep
dive into Waymo's
deals with
Jaguar and
talks with
Honda.. Tesla,
Volvo, Uber
and Ambarella.
And the
Princeton
Smart Driving
Car Summit is
coming up! "
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
Waymo
team, June 13,
"Ariel rides
after school.
Neha hops to
the grocery
store. Barbara
and Jim zip
around town
while kicking
back.
They’re all
part of the
Waymo early
rider program
we launched
last April.
Today, over
400 riders
with diverse
backgrounds
use Waymo
every day, at
any time, to
ride all
around the
Phoenix area.
Their feedback
helps us
understand how
fully self
driving cars
fit into their
daily lives.
One year in,
our early
rider program
and our
extensive
on-road
testing is
helping us
build the
world’s most
experienced
driver. In
fact, our
fleet of cars
across the
U.S. is now
driving more
than 24,000
miles daily;
that’s the
equivalent of
an around the
world road
trip! Here’s a
quick report
on how our
riders use
Waymo, what
we’ve learned,
and what’s
next....As
some of the
first people
in the world
to use
self-driving
vehicles for
their everyday
transportation
needs, our
early riders
are helping
shape this
technology.
Thanks to
their
feedback,
we’re refining
the rider
experience to
make sure
that: ...
nobody wants
to carry
grocery bags a
block down the
street... " Read
more Hmmmm....
Yipes!! The
personal car
isn't bad
enough in its
focus on
private
single-occupant
parkingSpot2parkingSpot mobility? Are we now going to have Waymo
providing it
Door2Door with
zero
opportunity to
share rides
and while
delivering
negative
public
benefits of
increased
energy,
pollution and
congestion
with all of
its empty
vehicle
repositioning.
No wonder the
CPUC voted to
forbid
ride-sharing.
Did Waymo made
them do it
since Waymo
hasn't done
ride-sharing
in Phoenix?
Having 2 or
more people in
the car isn't
ride sharing
if they would
have all gone
together in
their own car
had Waymo not
been there. So
Bad!!! Without
ride-sharing,
this is just
expensive,
energy
inefficient
and
environmentally
challenged
private
chauffeuring
for the
entitled
privileged
class:
See
video Just
like watching
Oszzie & Harriet
or Leave
it to Beaver.
For Waymo to
"Win it",
they'll need
to embrace
ride-sharing
because no
"Blue-state"
PUC is going
to be as
impressionable
as as
California's.
Alain
KMay 24,
"About 9:58
p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please
describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
K. Pyle, May 9, "Safety and, as importantly, the perception of safety could be the pin that pricks the expectations surrounding the autonomous vehicle future. Recognizing the importance of safety to the success of this still nascent industry, autonomous taxi start-up, Voyage, recently placed their testing and reporting procedures in an open source framework. ...Oliver Cameron, Voyage Co-Founder and CEO, is excited to see participation and says, “We can’t wait to have all of these contributions from companies from around the world; contribute to build the actual standard in autonomous safety.” Read more, Hmmmm.... See the video that was played at the Princeton SDC Summit which generated substantial positive discussion at the Summit. See also full length video. Alain
A. Madrigal, Mar 28, "On Tuesday, Waymo announced they’d purchase 20,000 sporty, electric self-driving vehicles from Jaguar for the company’s forthcoming ride-hailing service.... But the company embedded a much more significant milestone inside this supposed announcement about a fancy car. With orders now in for more than 20,000 of these vehicles and thousands of minivans that Chrysler announced earlier this year, Waymo will be capable of doing vast numbers of trips per day. They estimate that the Jaguar fleet alone will be capable of doing a million trips each day in 2020. ..." Read more Hmmmm...Yup!! This is HUGE! It will change the city and the key to making it so it doesn't make thing worse is Ride-sharing. If we ride-share we'll reduce energy, pollution & GHG by more than 50% and provide high-quality, affordable mobility indiscriminately for all. It becomes the new high-quality, low-cost mass transit. If it's kept/operated as another alternative for the 1%ers to be chauffeured alone, then the outcome is UGLY. Ride-sharing is KEY! Alain
R. Mitchell,
Mar 22,
"Police late
Wednesday
released a
video that
shows an Uber
robot car
running
straight into
a woman who
was walking
her bicycle
across a
highway in
Tempe, Ariz.
The woman was
taken to a
hospital,
where she died
Sunday night.
The video,
shot from the
car, is sure
to raise
debate over
who's to blame
for the
accident. In
the video, the
victim, Elaine
Herzberg, 49,
appears to be
illegally
jaywalking
from a median
strip across
two lanes of
traffic on a
dark road. But
she was more
than halfway
across the
street when
the car —
traveling
about 40 mph,
according to
police — hit
her. The car
did not appear
to brake or
take any other
evasive
action....
Bryant Walker
Smith, a law
professor and
driverless
specialist at
the University
of South
Carolina,
said:
"Although this
appalling
video isn't
the full
picture, it
strongly
suggests a
failure by
Uber's
automated
driving system
and a lack of
due care by
Uber's driver
as well as by
the
victim."..."
Read more Hmmmm... "..."What
we now need is
for the
release of the
radar and lidar
data,"
Princeton's
Kornhauser
said in an
email. (Lidar
is a sensing
technology
that uses
light from a
laser.)
"Obviously,
the video of
the driver is
extremely bad
for Uber and
probably
implies that
Uber should
suspend all of
its
'self-driving'
efforts for a
while if not
for a very
long while.
"The
'self-driving'
systems are
supposed to
have
'professional'
overseers who
are really
supposed to be
paying
attention
during these
'tests'.
Apparently
Uber didn't
make it clear
in this case."
Kornhauser
questioned the
police
description of
a situation
that would
have been
difficult to
avoid. He said
Uber should
reveal what
its
collision-avoidance software was doing during the couple of seconds
before impact.
"The
front-facing
video suggests
that this
person was
crossing the
lane at a slow
speed and
should have
been noticed
by the system
in time to at
least apply
the brakes, if
not stop the
vehicle
completely,"
he said.
"While a human
may not have
been able to
avoid this
crash, a
well-designed,
well-working
collision
avoidance
system should
have at least
begun to apply
the
brakes."..."
"
... Again, my sincerest condolences to
Elaine
Herzberg's
family and
friends.
The
simple
arithmetic
is: She
crossed more
than a lane
and a half
before being
struck or more
than 15 feet.
Average
walking speed
is about 4.6 ft/sec
which means
that she was
"visible" on
this stretch
of road for
more than 3
seconds.
Uber's speed
of 38 mph =
55.7 ft/sec
means: Uber
was 150 ft
away when she
began crossing
the left-hand
lane and could
have been
visible by an
alert driver.
The car's lidar
and radar
surely must
have "seen"
her beginning
at about that
time. Car
stopping
distance
including
"thinking time
used in The
Highway Code"
@ 38mph is 110
feet. The
driver should
have been able
to stop 40
feet short.
Any Automated
Emergency
Braking (AEB)
system should
have been able
to stop the
car in little
more than the
stopping
distance of 72
feet, half way
to Elaine.
This simple
arithmetic
suggests that
there may be a
very fundamental
fatal flaw in
Uber's AEB.
And
the driver was
not paying
attention. At
3 seconds
prior to
impact, Elaine
was within a
12 degree
field of view
when she began
to cross the
left lane.
While outside
the fovea,
this is well
within a
normal gaze
had the
operator been
looking out
the window.
The
released video
is from a
"dash
cam&qu ot;
and is
unlikely to be
the video
captured by
Uber's
"Self-driving"
system (or
whatever Uber
calls it).
That video may
well be at a
much higher
resolution and
frame rate.
Uber MUST
release that
video (not
just the
dash-cam
video) as well
as the radar
and
lidar
data that was
being used by
their
"Self-driving"
system. Uber
was testing
its system at
the time of
the crash and
therefore MUST
have been
logging those
data in case
something went
wrong. Uber
needs those
recorded data
in order to
have a chance
to learn what
went wrong and
fix it.
Something did
go wrong, very
wrong. Uber
and everyone
else MUST also
have the
opportunity to
learn from
this tragedy.
So Uber MUST
release all of
the data.
Alain
G.
Kumparak,
Mar 13,
"...." Read more Hmmmm... This is
REALLY big news.This
marks the real
beginning of
on-demand
mobility
provided by
vehicles
without a
driver or an
attendant
on-board, only
the passengers
and the
vehicles used
normal public
roadways that
operated in
normal
everyday
manner and
used by
conventional
cars and
trucks. Ng
Waymo
to their o
police
escorts, no
warning signs,
just normal
everyday
operating
conditions.
Except for the
one trip given
to Steve Mahan
in November
2015 in Austin
Texas, this is
the First time
that it kind
of mobility
service has
been delivered
anywhere in
the world. Waymo
has achieved 5
million
vehicle miles
of
Self-driving
(automated
driving on
normally
operating
public
roadway;
however, with
a
driver/attendant
in the car
ready to take
over should
the automated
system begin
to fail. Many
others
including
Uber, Lyft/Aptiv,
GM/Cruise, nVIDIA,
Apple, Tesla,
Nissan and
many others
have also done
many miles of
Self-driving
on normal
roads but each
an everyone
had a
driver/attendant
in the vehicle
ready to "save
the day"
should
something go
bad. Nobody
else anywhere
in the world
is doing what
Waymo
is now doing
in Chandler
AZ. Now that
the first one
has been done,
any community
that is
similar to
Chandler AZ
can now think
seriously
about inviting
Waymo
to provide
affordable
on-demand
mobility to
everyone in
their city.
Be
sure to see
the video.
Congratulations
Waymo!!!!!
Alain
D. Etherington, Feb 27, "California’s Department of Motor Vehicles established new rules announced Monday that will allow tech companies and others working on driverless vehicle systems to begin trialling their cars without a safety driver at the wheel. The new rules go into effect starting April 2 ..." Read more Hmmmm... Even though we have been expecting this, it is a major hurdle for it to actually have occurred. How long after April 2 will Waymo take to begin this type of testing. Again this is only testing and deployment, but NOT commercial service, which may happen first in Arizona, but it is a major step in this r-evolution. Commercial services are regulated by other agencies in California, not CA DMV. It is those other agencies that will need to grant/award the licenses for the various commercial operations where these driverless vehicles would be used. This regulation allows properly licensed commercial operations using CA DMV certified driverless vehicles to have those vehicles use California public roadways in delivering the otherwise licensed commercial activity. Note: CA DMV does not license the commercial transport of people or goods. That is the purview of other CA regulatory agencies. Alain
Andrew Hawkins, Jan 30, “Waymo, the self-driving unit of Google parent Alphabet, has reached a deal with one of Detroit’s Big Three automakers to dramatically expand its fleet of autonomous vehicles. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles announced today that it would supply “thousands” of additional Chrysler Pacifica minivans to Waymo, with the first deliveries starting at the end of 2018.
Waymo currently
has 600 of
FCA’s minivans
in its fleet,
some of which
are used to
shuttle real
people around
for its Early
Rider program
in Arizona.
The first 100
were delivered
when the
partnership
was announced
in May 2016,
and an
additional 500
were delivered
in 2017. The
minivans are
plug-in hybrid
variants with
Waymo’s
self-driving
hardware and
software built
in. The
companies
co-staff a
facility in
Michigan, near
FCA’s US
headquarters,
to engineer
the vehicles.
The company
also owns a
fleet of
self-driving
Lexus RX SUVs
that is has
been phasing
out in favor
of the new
minivans. (The
cute “Firefly”
prototypes
were also
phased out
last year.)…”
Read
more Hmmmm...
We’ve all been
wondering”
Who’s going to
make the
cars? How
will that evolve?Will
they magically
appear???
Well….Looks
like it is FCA
for now. We've
gone from a
handful 5
years ago, 2
years ago
added 100,
added 500 last
year,
“thousands”
this/next
year, …
Beginning to
look like
exponential
growth! (A Bit
Coin
Bubble??)
What is also
most
interesting:
no parallel
announcement
that Waymo
was hiring
“thousands of
attendants” to
ride around as
"drivers" in
these
“thousands of
minivans”.
Guess what
that means…
The Kornhauser
Scale is
going to start
really going
up!!! J
While
ultimately
they’ll need
about 35
million of
these to
provide
affordable
mobility to
all in the US,
this is a real
start at
making this
into a
business as
opposed to an
NSF-style
study that
collects dust
on a shelf or,
worse yet, a
digital
manuscript
that is never
downloaded by
anyone outside
a "group of
three". This
is a major
announcement!
From Stan Young: It will be interesting to watch. It probably has the OEMs, Uber and Lyft scared out of their wits. Based on any objective comparison of accomplishment with automated vehicles, there is not a close second to Waymo, despite all the claims to the contrary by trade rags – and the competition knows it. Still a huge unknown concerning the ‘social side’ of riding in an un-attended vehicle, but we will likely get over it like we did with elevators. ‘Thousands’ of vehicles if deployed in one city will put it on scale of Uber and Lyft – an interesting study when/if it comes to that.
...An issue is: where will Waymo choose to deploy (and for Waymo, the word "deploy" is the right word... they make the decision where to place these, in some sense take it or leave it... as opposed to waiting for people to show up at a dealership to buy or have it stay on the lot or have some governmental agency thinking that it actually has a role/power/where-with-all to “deploy”) where, when and how many. They could "flood/concentrate" on Chandler/Phoenix/Tuscon area with scale to be really relevant and substantively demonstrate the evolution of mobility, or they could sprinkle them out nationwide and remain irrelevant everywhere. I like the "flood/concentrate" approach in a state (Arizona) where they seem to be truly welcomed and whose climate, topography and road network are "easy". More importantly it would demonstrate the viability/challenges of the at-scale approach. From our simulations we uncovered that at-scale, one might need to be managing as many as 20,000 aTaxis in a 2.5x2.5 mile area (the extreme in Manhattan, which may be the last place that you want to try this) but it can be large. We’ll drill down in our data and take a look at Chandler/Phoenix and report back as to what we think it would take to provide mobility for all. Alain
Jan. 9, T. Papandreou & E. Casson. "... Waymo driverless service..." Read more Hmmmm... Tim and Ellie made presentation at the Transportation Research Board's Vehicle-Highway Automation (AHB30) Committee meeting on Tuesday in which they gave an update on Waymo's progress to launch "Waymo's driverless service" (slide 11), an app-based ride hailing service to the general public in a geo-fenced area of Arizona. To date Waymo has been testing such a service using volunteer riders in their driverless vehicles in various areas around the country (slide 7): however, to date, except for one ride given to Steve Mahan in Austin, TX, rides on normally operating public streets have always had trained Waymo-authorized personnel (an attendant) in the vehicle capable to intervene in the driving of the vehicle should the need arise. Since October, in Arizona, those personnel no longer sit behind the wheel, but are in the back seat so that Waymo can observe the response of the volunteer riders to riding in a vehicle on normal public streets under normal conditions without anyone in the front seats of the vehicle.
Tim said, without providing a specific date, that Waymo will soon launch "Waymo's driverless service" providing mobility to the general public on public roads in a geo-fenced area of Arizona. I asked Tim "Will that service be offered with vehicles that have an attendant in the vehicle?". Tim's answer was "No!". I asked a follow-up question: "Will these vehicle's have telemetry capabilities that enable these vehicles to be closely monitored from a "situation room" or "control center" that would enable remote operation of the vehicle, should the need arise?". Tim's answer was "No!". Another questioner asked if the geo-fenced area included special "connected vehicle" road infrastructure improvement that Waymo's system will be relying on?" Tim's answer was "No!".
While the definition of "soon" was not given, I've taken this as a really big pronouncement that Waymo is actually going to go to launch commercially-viable on-demand mobility to the general public on conventional public roads. This is really big news because this is finally going to enable us to begin to evolve on the "Kornhauser Scale" ( log of (world-wide VMT of Driverless (VMT-D) vehicles without a human attendant/driver on board accumulated while providing mobility to the general public on conventional roadways). So far we are beyond the "undefined value" associated with VMT-D = 0 and are at KS = 1 only by virtue of the one Steve Mahan ride in Austin). :-) Alain
AP,
Nov. 7, 2017 "Waymo,
the
self-driving
car company
created by
Google, is
pulling the
human backup
driver from
behind the
steering wheel
and will test
vehicles on
public roads with only an
employee in
the back seat.
The company’s
move — which
started Oct.
19 with an
automated
Chrysler
Pacifica
minivan in the
Phoenix suburb
of Chandler,
Ariz. — is a major step toward vehicles driving
themselves on
public roads
without human
backup
drivers. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Not to be
too critical,
but Waymo
is still just
'Self-driving'
. While they
moved the
'engineer'
with the
ability to
'take over and
drive the
vehicle' from
behind the
wheel to the
back seat,
this is just a
step along the
broad
'Self-driving'
continuum
which is a
vehicle that,
under certain
circumstance,
can drive
itself, but
does that only
if there is a
person ready
and able to
take over if
the unexpected
appears.
The
big-leap/major-step will come when Waymo
removes the
'engineer'
entirely from
the vehicle and
it is
human-less
when it
arrives to
pick up a
passenger and
drives
away
human-less
after the last
passenger(s)
disembark.
That enormous
leap-of-faith
in the
technology
will mark Waymo's
inception of
the Driverless
Era. (or
what Waymo
prefers to
call 'Fully
Self-driving'
era.)
Just
to be clear,
when that time
comes, I'm
sure that
Waymo
will have
telemetry
throughout
that
Driverless
vehicle and
there will be
a room full of
engineers in Waymo's
'Situation
Room'
ready to take
over the
driving should
the need
arise.
However,
until that
time, Waymo
is just like
all the other
wanabes,
they are just
'Self-driving'
without the
'Fully'.
The
reason why
'remote
emergency
driving' is
'Driverless'
is because it
scales. By
that I mean
that it takes
the provision
of horizontal
mobility on
our public
streets from
needing at
least one
human per
vehicle to
needing less
than one human
per vehicle.
Initially the
remote driver
will monitor
one car.
Before you
know it that
person will be
monitoring
two, four,
eight, ...
vehicles and
truly
Driverless
with zero
remote human
oversee-ers
will be
approached
asymptotically.
But just like
the old saw
between the
engineer and
the
mathematician:
engineer and
mathematician
were sitting
on a bench
recalling
their youth...
Engineer said
"Long ago, I
was sitting on
this very
bench with my
girl. We
wanted to kiss
but we were
too far
apart. So we
agreed to move
towards each
other by
halving the
distance
between us on
each move.
The
mathematician
blared "
You're so
stupid! If
you did that,
you never came
together!"
The engineer
just smiled:
"we got close
enough!".
Alain
May 18,
Enormously
successful
inaugural
Summit
starting with
the Adam
Jonas video
and finishing
with
Fred Fishkin's
live interview
with Wm. C
Ford III.
In between, serious engagement among over
150 leaders
from
Communities at
the bleeding
edge of
deployment,
Insurance
struggling
with how to
properly
promote the
adoption of
technology
that may well
force them to
re-invent
themselves and
AI (Artificial
Intelligence)
and the
various
technologies
that are
rapidly
advancing so
that we can
actually
deliver the
safety,
environmental,
mobility and
quality of
life
opportunities
envisioned by
these
“Ultimate
Shared-Riding
Machines”.
Save the Date
for the 2nd
Annual... May
16 & 17,
2018,
Princeton NJ
Read
Inaugural
Program with
links to
Slides. Fishkin Interview of Summit Summary
and
Interview of
Yann LeCun.
Read Inaugural
Program with
links to
Slides. Hmmmm... Enormous thank you to all who
participated.
Well done!
Alain
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is
maintained by
Alain
Kornhauser
and hosted by
the Princeton
University
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