http://SmartDrivingCar.com/7.01-Beware-010319
1st edition of the 7th year of SmartDrivingCars
J Greenwald
& A
Kornhauser,
Apr. 2019
"Vehicle
automation is
coming, but
environmental
and energy
imperatives
are NOT what’s
motivating it.
In fact, its
energy and
environmental
outcomes are
deeply
uncertain. The
promise of
autonomous
vehicles (AVs)
is greater
safety and
mobility. The
question is:
How do we
achieve that
promise while
reducing
greenhouse gas
(GHG)
emissions and
saving energy?
Future AV
scenarios
range widely,
from
dramatically
higher to
dramatically
lower GHG
emissions.
Fortunately,
the best case
for the
environment is
also the best
case for
business, for
the economy,
and for safe
and affordable
mobility:
autonomous
Taxi fleets
that operate
clean
vehicles,
encourage
ridesharing,
and are
integrated
with other
public and
private
transportation
modes.
Governments,
businesses,
drivers and
riders make
decisions that
can increase
or decrease
the likelihood
of the
best-case
scenario..."
Read
more Hmmmm...
Yup!! Alain
K. Gogarty,
Dec 27, "It’s
not clear yet
whether the AV
START Act will
pass the U.S.
Senate and
become a law.
What is clear
is the first
effort at
creating a
national
safety
standard for
connected and
automated
vehicles
(CAVs) wasn’t
the most
effective
tactic.
The bill
requires the
National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration
(NHTSA) to
pre-empt
regulations
and progress
achieved by
the states
wasn’t the
most effective
tactic. But
pre-empting
work done in
the states to
get a handle
on
autonomous-vehicle
trials has
raised some
complaints.
And offering
CAV developers
permission to
leave
important
safety gear
off the
vehicles they
put on the
road – as a
way to cut
costs and red
tape and
therefore make
development
faster – is
generating a
lot more
complaints.
In fact, more
than 100
organizations
have raised
concerns,
ranging from
associations
of mayors and
governors to
coalitions of
clubs for
bicyclists,
hikers and
others worried
about being
run over and
left
behind....
The
Pennsylvania
legislature
has never been
quite sure
what to make
of autonomous
vehicles, so
it has been
cautious about
peremptory
decisions,
authorizing
the CAV
program that
allows Cohen a
measure of
influence but
not the
ability to
make the
rules.
“As it turns
out, policy
can leave you
a lot more
nimble and
flexible and
better able to
keep pace with
the increasing
advancement of
tech than
regulation,
which takes a
year two to
get approved
and is then
very rigid,”
Cohen said.
“There was an
upside and a
downside. We
could respond
with
appropriate
policies and
create a
framework we
could later
present to be
formalized as
regulation.
But we also
could build a
collaborative
relationship
with
stakeholders
and with all
six testing
entities that
are active in
the Pittsburgh
area and
around the
county.... "
Read more
Hmmmm.... One also needs to look at what California
has done, ...
But... There
are really two
very different
entities
here... One is
Self-driving
cars/trucks/buses...
where the
human driver
remains in the
loop. Here,
all of the
conventional
things
continue to
apply. The
other is
Driverless,
where there
are only human
(and cargo)
passengers.
No human
driver. This
is VERY
different and
deserves its
own
regulation/legislation.
As I've
written
before,
Driverless is
a NEW MODE and
it deserves
its own
legislation,
regulation and
oversight
Federal
entity. Trucks
have the FMCA,
Trains have
FRA, Planes
have FAA,
conventional
(and
Safe-driving
and
Self-driving)
Cars have the
FHWA/NHTSA,
Driverless
Cars deserve
to have
FDCA/NDCSA.
Alain
P. Sawers, Dec 22, "If 2017 was the year of dockless bike-sharing, then 2018 was the year that ushered in an entirely new era for tech-infused personal mobility startups. Throughout last year, dueling Chinese bike-sharing companies Ofo and Mobike scrambled to corner a burgeoning market by raising crazy sums of cash to deposit bright-colored bicycles in cities around the world.
Fast-forward
to 2018, and
things don’t
look quite so
“bright” — Ofo
is now
flirting with
bankruptcy,
while Mobike
has its own
challenges in
the form of
vandalism and
data-privacy
probes. This
isn’t to say
that dockless
bike-sharing
is going the
way of the
dodo — far
from it — it
just means
that a more
measured
approach will
be required
when entering
new markets.
Working with
cities will be
integral to
longer term
success,
rather than
fighting with
rivals to push
as many bikes
on a city as
possible.
But what we’ve
seen in 2018
is a marked
evolution in
the personal
mobility
realm, with
more form
factors,
integrations,
infrastructure, and investment thrown at the chase. One of the big
trends was a
shift into
electrified
transport,
with a
particular
focus on
electric
scooters.... "
Read
more Hmmmm.... The same process will fail if someone tries
the same thing
with
Driverless
cars. One,
they are
infinitely
more
expensive, so
no one will
dare try and,
two, they are
substantially
more delicate
and
vulnerable.
Alain
A. Small,
Dec 21, "For
the last three
months,
Michael
Schultz and
his
girlfriend,
Mia, have been
making extra
money working
for Bird and
Lime scooters
in Denver.
They’re part
of the
freelance
workforce that
gathers and
charges the
shared
electric
vehicles
overnight.
During a
normal week,
the couple
spend a few
hours each
evening
rolling around
in his Jeep to
collect the
battery-powered
e-scoots.
Sometimes they
make a
Saturday out
of the
adventure,
together
pocketing
about $75 an
hour... It’s
starting to
get colder and
it’s already
snowed in
Denver a few
times, but
Schultz says
business is
still good. He
finds plenty
of scooters
that need
their
batteries
charged. “They
get used, rain
or shine,”
says Schultz,
a 36-year-old
who works as a
DevOps
engineer
during the
day. “Even
snow doesn’t
stop
them.”... If
anything, the
cold’s has
been good for
Schultz’s side
hustle as a
“Bird hunter”
or “Lime
juicer,” as
the gig
economy ..."
Read
more Hmmmm.... If I tie a Christmas tree, bike, or kayak on
the Scooter,
will it still
go through the
snow??? Alain
Staff, Jan
2019, "Explore
the road to
driverless
mobility
through
ride-and-drive
experiences.
Test drive a
variety of
technologies
that support
the future of
self-driving
cars,
including
parking
assist,
collision
avoidance,
emergency
braking and
much
more...." Read
more Hmmmm.... See you there next week. Alain
A. Hawkins,
Jan 3,
"Toyota, the
world’s
largest
automaker,
will once
again unveil
the latest
iteration of
its
self-driving
test vehicle
at CES in Las
Vegas next
week. The
TRI-P4 test
car is
designed by
the Toyota
Research
Institute, the
automaker’s
Silicon
Valley-based
division, and
the major
upgrade over
the third
version of the
vehicle is —
wait for it —
more trunk
space.
On the
surface, that
might not
sound very
impressive,
but those with
more than a
passing
familiarity
with
autonomous
vehicle design
will recognize
it as a major
step. Most
Level-4
capable
self-driving
cars on the
road today —
meaning those
cars that can
perform all
the driving
tasks within a
confined area
and under
specifics
conditions
—... “Our
Chauffeur
development is
focused on
full autonomy,
where the
human is
essentially
removed from
the driving
equation, " Read
more Hmmmm.... C'mon Andrew, this is NOT a "Level 4" car.
It is a
Self-driving
car, period.
"essentially
removing" is
NOT removing.
Everything
that I have
seen from
Toyota
indicates to
me that Toyota
is exclusively
focused on
maintaining
its business
model of
selling cars
to individuals
as opposed to
creating
machines that
provide
mobility to
all. So, no
wonder they
want more
trunk space so
folks who
"haul stuff"
will buy these
instead of
Ford F-150s.
Alain
T. Lee, Dec
30, "... "I've
been seeing an
increasing
recognition
from
everybody—OEMs
down to
various
startups—that
this is all a
lot tougher
than anybody
anticipated
two or three
years ago,"
industry
analyst Sam
Abuelsamid
told Ars. "The
farther along
they get in
the process,
the more they
learn how much
they don't
understand."..."
Read
more Hmmmm.... A fundamental misunderstanding is
central to the
hype.
Self-driving
cars that are
driven/attended by its owner are a reality and did great in 2018
(Example:
Teslas) . The
hype was that
these same
cars could
magically
become
driverless and
deliver the
virtues that
only a
driverless car
can deliver.
That's where
2018 continued
to struggle.
Prior to 2018, there had been only one "10 mile" Driverless ride to Steve Mahan in Austin Texas in late 2015. It wasn't until March 13, 2018 that the 2nd Driverless ride was given to anyone anywhere in the world in a car operating driverlessly in a normal driving environment. So, indeed there was great progress made in 2018 in getting to the 2nd ride. Unfortunately, Waymo didn't give too many more of these real driverless rides and reintroduced "attendants" in the vehicles. And, no one else anywhere in the world dared to do give real driverless ride to anyone... probably for good reason. They still aren't confident enough, nor is there any real value to taking even the very small risks because they aren't ready enough. The hype has been that driverless is just a little bit better self-driving. NO!!! And as Waymo has been touting the theory: getting to driverless requires a driverless mindset from the very beginning and doesn't really evolve from self-driving. Given that the only entity on the planet that has achieved driverless, even for only a few rides, is an entity that has been focused on driverless since the get-go, the theory is holding firm. Alain
Staff, Jan
2, "Three
point eight.
From the first
day of trading
in 2018 to the
last, that was
the final
percentage
difference in
Tesla’s share
price. Taken
on its own,
the number is
a modest and
positive gain
— and far more
fruitful than
automakers
Ford, GM and
Fiat Chrysler.
It’s a number
that suggests
a consistent
year of
upwards
momentum for
Tesla, steady
and diligent
like a
tugboat, even
keeled and
untouched from
stormy market
seas.
Those two
bookends of
the stock
market
calendar —
January 2 and
December 31 —
and the 3.8%
gain they
produced
obfuscates
what really
happened to
Tesla and CEO
Elon Musk in
2018. It
wasn’t quiet.
It wasn’t
calm. It
wasn’t
constant or
consistent.
Tesla wasn’t a
tugboat in
2018; it was a
whipsaw...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... and see chart. Alain
J. Gaines, Jan 1, "...Bumpas said she didn’t fault anyone for the dissolution of Knoxville’s Olli deal. Acceptance of autonomous vehicles is probably still just a couple of years away, requiring further testing and safeguards to reassure the public, she said...." Read more Hmmmm.... Not good news. We need to understand the backstory. Alain
Editor, Jan
2, "Two
powerhouses in
their
respective
fields –
Princeton
University in
academics,
Google in
innovation –
will combine
forces to ride
the next big
wave in
technology:
artificial
intelligence.
Long nothing
more than a
sci-fi
writer’s
dream, AI
gives us
machines that
“think” and
“learn” like
humans,
capable of
marvels such
as a
self-driving
car and a
computer that
outperforms a
reigning
“Jeopardy”
champ.
Google and
Princeton have
selected 1
Palmer Square,
across from
the campus, as
the venue for
a new AI
computer
lab..." Read
more Hmmmm.... Nice. Alain
f. Lambert,
Jan 4, "Tesla
is working on
its new
Autopilot
Hardware 3,
which consists
of a new
neural net
computer that
they claimed
will be the
‘world’s most
advanced
computer for
autonomous
driving’. The
company has
now leaked
some info
about the new
self-driving
computer in
its latest
software
update.
The current
Autopilot
computer in
Tesla’s
vehicles is
powered by
Nvidia GPUs.
CEO Elon Musk
says that it
is capable of
processing 200
frames per
second and
Tesla’s
hardware 3
computer,
which is
optimized to
run a neural
net, will be
able to handle
2,000 frames
per second
with
redundancy.
...DamianXVI
managed to
create a
graphical
visualization
of the data
flow for “some
of the
networks
observed in
the
binaries”:..."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Very interesting. Alain
G.
Vasilash, Jan
4, "Unless
there is some
sort of tragic
accident or
some jackass
performing a
stunt in a
YouTube video,
Telsa
Autopilot
doesn't get
nearly the
amount of
attention as
(1) Elon Musk
boring holes,
(2) Uber
returning to
self-driving
car research,
or (3) Elon
Musk tweeting.
Yet day by
day, the
number of
actual road
miles being
accumulated by
the Autopilot
system is
rather
remarkable,
according to
research
conducted by
MIT's Lex
Fridman and
his
colleagues,
who are
involved in
human-centered
AI research,
including
autonomous
driving.
According to
Fridman, as of
December 23,
2018, there
were
1,056,505,935
miles driven
with Autopilot
engaged. Of
those miles,
581,495,817
were driven
using the
Autopilot
hardware
version 1,
which went
into operation
on October 15,
2015. The
balance,
475,010,118,
were driven
using
Autopilot
hardware
version 2+,
which was
enabled on
January 21,
2017.... " Read
more Hmmmm.... Embedded within what is largely
boring useless
data is a
treasure trove
of
fundamentally
valuable
safety
information.
Finding and
separating
that wheat
from all that
chaff is a
non-trivial
exercise. I
hope that they
are doing it
well and will
begin to share
with everyone
that
fundamentally
valuable
safety-relevant
information
that they
uncover. All
should be
working
together on
making sure
these systems
are as safe as
possible,
because all
suffer when
the Ubers of
this world
totally screw
up. Alain
R.
Mitchell,
Jan.2, "Tesla
started the
new year by
releasing data
that throw its
growth story
into doubt.
The company
reported
Wednesday that
at the end of
the fourth
quarter it was
making 6,668
cars per week
on average —
far less than
what Chief
Executive Elon
Musk once
promised
analysts.
“What people
should
absolutely
have zero
concern about
is that Tesla
will achieve a
10,000-unit
production
week by the
end of next
year,” Musk
said on a
conference
call in August
2017.
Sales growth,
meanwhile,
slowed
dramatically.
After a
bang-up second
quarter that
saw unit sales
more than
double over a
year earlier,
the growth
rate slowed in
the fourth
quarter to 8%,
with total
sales of
90,700
vehicles.
Sales of the
new Model 3
electric sedan
– crucial to
Tesla’s
reputation as
a growth stock
– fell well
below analyst
expectations,
rising 13% in
the fourth
quarter, to
63,150. The
consensus
expectation
was for a 17%
boost.
Perhaps most
worrying of
all, from a
financial
standpoint,
the company
cut prices
$2,000 on all
vehicles sold
in the U.S. –
the Model S,
the Model X
and the Model
3. That move,
which the
company said
is meant to
offset
expiring
federal
subsidies for
zero-emission
vehicles,
could boost
demand but at
the cost of
revenue, cash
flow and
profit
margins.
Investors
didn’t take
the news well.
Tesla’s stock
price slid as
much as 10% in
early trading,
and closed
down nearly
7%, at
$310.12..." Read
more Hmmmm.... Too much of a roller coaster for
me. Alain
M. Dickey, Jan 3, "Wear and tear is a major issue in the realm of electric scooters, resulting in a short lifespan of individual scooters and poor unit economics. At the Consumer Electronics Show today, Segway -Ninebot unveiled the Model Max scooter, which is designed to help services like Bird and Lime, for example, reduce their respective operating and maintenance costs. “Model Max was designed taking into consideration complex shared usage scenarios, consumer overuse of vehicles, operation models and maintenance costs,” Segway wrote in a press release. ... Once a Segway, always a niche for SegHoles... By design they are obnoxious and intrusive. They have little hope of earning any respect or tolerance... Segway also unveiled today Loomo Delivery, an autonomous vehicle for last-mile deliveries. ... " Read more Hmmmm.... Even more Segway than Segways. Alain
S.
Edelstein, Jan
3,
"Self-driving
cars use an
array of
sensors to
"see" the
world around
them, but
those sensors
may also soon
point inward.
Automotive
tech firm
Aptiv has
entered into a
partnership
with
Affectiva, a
developer of
artificial-intelligence
(AI) software,
to develop
sensing
systems for
monitoring
vehicle
occupants.
Aptiv, which
made a
minority
investment in
Affectiva as
part of the
deal, wants
future
self-driving
cars to be
able to track
passengers'
emotional and
cognitive
states. A
"multi-modal
interior
sensing
solution" will
be based
around
Affectiva's
software,
which uses
real-world
data to
identify
people's
moods, an
Aptiv press
release said.
Aptiv, which
is partnering
with Lyft on
autonomous-driving
tech, views
this as a
natural
extension of
sensor suites
that monitor
conditions
around the
car..." Read
more Hmmmm....This deserves C'mon Man! status.
"... Without human drivers onboard, cars will need
some mechanism
for detecting
medical
emergencies or
other issues...." Really??? What else are you going to
do with such
personal
intrusions???
If this stuff
was any good,
it would be
infinitely
more valuable
replacing
shrinks.
Since it's
obviously not
that good, it
is not only
Goofy, but
dangerous.
Alain
P.
Waldmeir, Jan
2, "The
biggest
problem with
self-driving
cars is not
the
technology.
It’s the
humans...." Read
more Hmmmm....Woops... The title suggested that
this was going
to be about
Driverless
cars, yet the
first sentence
..."
self-driving..."
and it evolves
to be a
promotional
piece for
Ford. Yes,
humans are the
problem.
Jaywalkers and
unprotected
left turns are
a significant
issue with
Self-driving,
but only the
very tip of
the
human-challenge
iceberg
Driverless is
confronting.
Alain
3rd
Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit
evening May
14 through May
16, 2019
Save the Date; Reserve your Sponsorship
Catalog
of Videos of
Presentations
@ 2nd Annual
Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
Photos
from 2nd
Annual
Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
Program
& Links to
slides from
2nd Annual
Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
F. Fishkin, Aug 26, "The impact of the Hitch service murders in China on ride sharing, Toyota's investment in Uber and the issue of who controls data...are the focus of Episode 54 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin are joined by The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena."
F. Fishkin, July 27, "When will we shift from buying cars to buying rides? In Episode 49 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, entrepreneur, speaker and co-author of "The End of Driving: Transportation Systems and Public Policy Planning for Autonomous Vehicles" ...Bern Grush joins co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton and Fred Fishkin. That along with the latest on Ford, Waymo, Uber and more."
F. Fishkin, May 10, "The continuing Uber crash investigation, Waymo and Ohio rolls out the welcome mat for the testing of self driving cars. All that and more in Episode 38 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This week Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by Bryant Walker Smith of the University of South Carolina and Stanford. Tune in and subscribe!"
F. Fishkin,
Apr 4, "
Waymo is
making it
real! In
Episode 33 of
the Smart
Driving Cars
Podcast, hosts
Fred Fishkin
and
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser are
joined by
Michael Sena,
publisher of
The Dispatcher
newsletter.
Take a deep
dive into Waymo's
deals with
Jaguar and
talks with
Honda.. Tesla,
Volvo, Uber
and Ambarella.
And the
Princeton
Smart Driving
Car Summit is
coming up! "
A.
Chottani, Dec.
2018, "...What
is happening
is fairly well
understood, if
initially
underestimated.
Digitization
and other
technological
advances are
exposing the
vulnerabilities
in every
industry,
particularly
retail. And
now, logistics
companies are
starting to
feel the heat.
Our new
research has
turned up five
trends that
offer
startling
indicators of
impending
change for the
trucking,
rail,
warehousing,
and logistics
companies that
move America’s
merchandise.
Start with
autonomous
trucks (ATs),
which will
change the
cost structure
and
utilization of
trucking—and
with that, the
cost of
consumer
goods.
Sixty-five
percent of the
nation’s
consumable
goods are
trucked to
market. With
full autonomy,
operating
costs would
decline by
about 40
percent,
saving the US
for-hire
trucking
industry
between $85
billion and
$125 billion.
The big
question is
how this
savings will
be
distributed.
How will
shippers and
carriers
divide the
lower costs of
logistics? Or
will most of
the surplus
move to
consumers, in
the form of
lower
prices?..."
Hmmmm.... This is a serious in-depth report on the
Logistics
industry and
the potential
implications
of automation
and
digitization
throughout the
industry for
not only
trucks but
also
railroads.
Although, the
report fails
to consider
that railroads
may themselves
have an
opportunity
with
automation to
effectively
compete with
long-haul
trucking.
Short-fast
"engineerless
trains" with
driverless
drayage could
seriously
impact
long-haul
trucking.
Think about
it. Alain
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
Waymo
team, June 13,
"Ariel rides
after school.
Neha hops to
the grocery
store. Barbara
and Jim zip
around town
while kicking
back.
They’re all
part of the
Waymo early
rider program
we launched
last April.
Today, over
400 riders
with diverse
backgrounds
use Waymo
every day, at
any time, to
ride all
around the
Phoenix area.
Their feedback
helps us
understand how
fully self
driving cars
fit into their
daily lives.
One year in,
our early
rider program
and our
extensive
on-road
testing is
helping us
build the
world’s most
experienced
driver. In
fact, our
fleet of cars
across the
U.S. is now
driving more
than 24,000
miles daily;
that’s the
equivalent of
an around the
world road
trip! Here’s a
quick report
on how our
riders use
Waymo, what
we’ve learned,
and what’s
next....As
some of the
first people
in the world
to use
self-driving
vehicles for
their everyday
transportation
needs, our
early riders
are helping
shape this
technology.
Thanks to
their
feedback,
we’re refining
the rider
experience to
make sure
that: ...
nobody wants
to carry
grocery bags a
block down the
street... " Read
more Hmmmm....
Yipes!! The
personal car
isn't bad
enough in its
focus on
private
single-occupant
parkingSpot2parkingSpot mobility? Are we now going to have Waymo
providing it
Door2Door with
zero
opportunity to
share rides
and while
delivering
negative
public
benefits of
increased
energy,
pollution and
congestion
with all of
its empty
vehicle
repositioning.
No wonder the
CPUC voted to
forbid
ride-sharing.
Did Waymo made
them do it
since Waymo
hasn't done
ride-sharing
in Phoenix?
Having 2 or
more people in
the car isn't
ride sharing
if they would
have all gone
together in
their own car
had Waymo not
been there. So
Bad!!! Without
ride-sharing,
this is just
expensive,
energy
inefficient
and
environmentally
challenged
private
chauffeuring
for the
entitled
privileged
class:
See
video Just
like watching
Oszzie & Harriet
or Leave
it to Beaver.
For Waymo to
"Win it",
they'll need
to embrace
ride-sharing
because no
"Blue-state"
PUC is going
to be as
impressionable
as as
California's.
Alain
KMay 24,
"About 9:58
p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please
describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
K. Pyle, May 9, "Safety and, as importantly, the perception of safety could be the pin that pricks the expectations surrounding the autonomous vehicle future. Recognizing the importance of safety to the success of this still nascent industry, autonomous taxi start-up, Voyage, recently placed their testing and reporting procedures in an open source framework. ...Oliver Cameron, Voyage Co-Founder and CEO, is excited to see participation and says, “We can’t wait to have all of these contributions from companies from around the world; contribute to build the actual standard in autonomous safety.” Read more, Hmmmm.... See the video that was played at the Princeton SDC Summit which generated substantial positive discussion at the Summit. See also full length video. Alain
A. Madrigal, Mar 28, "On Tuesday, Waymo announced they’d purchase 20,000 sporty, electric self-driving vehicles from Jaguar for the company’s forthcoming ride-hailing service.... But the company embedded a much more significant milestone inside this supposed announcement about a fancy car. With orders now in for more than 20,000 of these vehicles and thousands of minivans that Chrysler announced earlier this year, Waymo will be capable of doing vast numbers of trips per day. They estimate that the Jaguar fleet alone will be capable of doing a million trips each day in 2020. ..." Read more Hmmmm...Yup!! This is HUGE! It will change the city and the key to making it so it doesn't make thing worse is Ride-sharing. If we ride-share we'll reduce energy, pollution & GHG by more than 50% and provide high-quality, affordable mobility indiscriminately for all. It becomes the new high-quality, low-cost mass transit. If it's kept/operated as another alternative for the 1%ers to be chauffeured alone, then the outcome is UGLY. Ride-sharing is KEY! Alain
R. Mitchell,
Mar 22,
"Police late
Wednesday
released a
video that
shows an Uber
robot car
running
straight into
a woman who
was walking
her bicycle
across a
highway in
Tempe, Ariz.
The woman was
taken to a
hospital,
where she died
Sunday night.
The video,
shot from the
car, is sure
to raise
debate over
who's to blame
for the
accident. In
the video, the
victim, Elaine
Herzberg, 49,
appears to be
illegally
jaywalking
from a median
strip across
two lanes of
traffic on a
dark road. But
she was more
than halfway
across the
street when
the car —
traveling
about 40 mph,
according to
police — hit
her. The car
did not appear
to brake or
take any other
evasive
action....
Bryant Walker
Smith, a law
professor and
driverless
specialist at
the University
of South
Carolina,
said:
"Although this
appalling
video isn't
the full
picture, it
strongly
suggests a
failure by
Uber's
automated
driving system
and a lack of
due care by
Uber's driver
as well as by
the
victim."..."
Read more Hmmmm... "..."What
we now need is
for the
release of the
radar and lidar
data,"
Princeton's
Kornhauser
said in an
email. (Lidar
is a sensing
technology
that uses
light from a
laser.)
"Obviously,
the video of
the driver is
extremely bad
for Uber and
probably
implies that
Uber should
suspend all of
its
'self-driving'
efforts for a
while if not
for a very
long while.
"The
'self-driving'
systems are
supposed to
have
'professional'
overseers who
are really
supposed to be
paying
attention
during these
'tests'.
Apparently
Uber didn't
make it clear
in this case."
Kornhauser
questioned the
police
description of
a situation
that would
have been
difficult to
avoid. He said
Uber should
reveal what
its
collision-avoidance software was doing during the couple of seconds
before impact.
"The
front-facing
video suggests
that this
person was
crossing the
lane at a slow
speed and
should have
been noticed
by the system
in time to at
least apply
the brakes, if
not stop the
vehicle
completely,"
he said.
"While a human
may not have
been able to
avoid this
crash, a
well-designed,
well-working
collision
avoidance
system should
have at least
begun to apply
the
brakes."..."
"
... Again, my sincerest condolences to
Elaine
Herzberg's
family and
friends.
The
simple
arithmetic
is: She
crossed more
than a lane
and a half
before being
struck or more
than 15 feet.
Average
walking speed
is about 4.6 ft/sec
which means
that she was
"visible" on
this stretch
of road for
more than 3
seconds.
Uber's speed
of 38 mph =
55.7 ft/sec
means: Uber
was 150 ft
away when she
began crossing
the left-hand
lane and could
have been
visible by an
alert driver.
The car's lidar
and radar
surely must
have "seen"
her beginning
at about that
time. Car
stopping
distance
including
"thinking time
used in The
Highway Code"
@ 38mph is 110
feet. The
driver should
have been able
to stop 40
feet short.
Any Automated
Emergency
Braking (AEB)
system should
have been able
to stop the
car in little
more than the
stopping
distance of 72
feet, half way
to Elaine.
This simple
arithmetic
suggests that
there may be a
very fundamental
fatal flaw in
Uber's AEB.
And
the driver was
not paying
attention. At
3 seconds
prior to
impact, Elaine
was within a
12 degree
field of view
when she began
to cross the
left lane.
While outside
the fovea,
this is well
within a
normal gaze
had the
operator been
looking out
the window.
The
released video
is from a
"dash
cam&qu ot;
and is
unlikely to be
the video
captured by
Uber's
"Self-driving"
system (or
whatever Uber
calls it).
That video may
well be at a
much higher
resolution and
frame rate.
Uber MUST
release that
video (not
just the
dash-cam
video) as well
as the radar
and
lidar
data that was
being used by
their
"Self-driving"
system. Uber
was testing
its system at
the time of
the crash and
therefore MUST
have been
logging those
data in case
something went
wrong. Uber
needs those
recorded data
in order to
have a chance
to learn what
went wrong and
fix it.
Something did
go wrong, very
wrong. Uber
and everyone
else MUST also
have the
opportunity to
learn from
this tragedy.
So Uber MUST
release all of
the data.
Alain
G.
Kumparak,
Mar 13,
"...." Read more Hmmmm... This is
REALLY big news.This
marks the real
beginning of
on-demand
mobility
provided by
vehicles
without a
driver or an
attendant
on-board, only
the passengers
and the
vehicles used
normal public
roadways that
operated in
normal
everyday
manner and
used by
conventional
cars and
trucks. Ng
Waymo
to their o
police
escorts, no
warning signs,
just normal
everyday
operating
conditions.
Except for the
one trip given
to Steve Mahan
in November
2015 in Austin
Texas, this is
the First time
that it kind
of mobility
service has
been delivered
anywhere in
the world. Waymo
has achieved 5
million
vehicle miles
of
Self-driving
(automated
driving on
normally
operating
public
roadway;
however, with
a
driver/attendant
in the car
ready to take
over should
the automated
system begin
to fail. Many
others
including
Uber, Lyft/Aptiv,
GM/Cruise, nVIDIA,
Apple, Tesla,
Nissan and
many others
have also done
many miles of
Self-driving
on normal
roads but each
an everyone
had a
driver/attendant
in the vehicle
ready to "save
the day"
should
something go
bad. Nobody
else anywhere
in the world
is doing what
Waymo
is now doing
in Chandler
AZ. Now that
the first one
has been done,
any community
that is
similar to
Chandler AZ
can now think
seriously
about inviting
Waymo
to provide
affordable
on-demand
mobility to
everyone in
their city.
Be
sure to see
the video.
Congratulations
Waymo!!!!!
Alain
D. Etherington, Feb 27, "California’s Department of Motor Vehicles established new rules announced Monday that will allow tech companies and others working on driverless vehicle systems to begin trialling their cars without a safety driver at the wheel. The new rules go into effect starting April 2 ..." Read more Hmmmm... Even though we have been expecting this, it is a major hurdle for it to actually have occurred. How long after April 2 will Waymo take to begin this type of testing. Again this is only testing and deployment, but NOT commercial service, which may happen first in Arizona, but it is a major step in this r-evolution. Commercial services are regulated by other agencies in California, not CA DMV. It is those other agencies that will need to grant/award the licenses for the various commercial operations where these driverless vehicles would be used. This regulation allows properly licensed commercial operations using CA DMV certified driverless vehicles to have those vehicles use California public roadways in delivering the otherwise licensed commercial activity. Note: CA DMV does not license the commercial transport of people or goods. That is the purview of other CA regulatory agencies. Alain
Andrew Hawkins, Jan 30, “Waymo, the self-driving unit of Google parent Alphabet, has reached a deal with one of Detroit’s Big Three automakers to dramatically expand its fleet of autonomous vehicles. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles announced today that it would supply “thousands” of additional Chrysler Pacifica minivans to Waymo, with the first deliveries starting at the end of 2018.
Waymo currently
has 600 of
FCA’s minivans
in its fleet,
some of which
are used to
shuttle real
people around
for its Early
Rider program
in Arizona.
The first 100
were delivered
when the
partnership
was announced
in May 2016,
and an
additional 500
were delivered
in 2017. The
minivans are
plug-in hybrid
variants with
Waymo’s
self-driving
hardware and
software built
in. The
companies
co-staff a
facility in
Michigan, near
FCA’s US
headquarters,
to engineer
the vehicles.
The company
also owns a
fleet of
self-driving
Lexus RX SUVs
that is has
been phasing
out in favor
of the new
minivans. (The
cute “Firefly”
prototypes
were also
phased out
last year.)…”
Read
more Hmmmm...
We’ve all been
wondering”
Who’s going to
make the
cars? How
will that evolve?Will
they magically
appear???
Well….Looks
like it is FCA
for now. We've
gone from a
handful 5
years ago, 2
years ago
added 100,
added 500 last
year,
“thousands”
this/next
year, …
Beginning to
look like
exponential
growth! (A Bit
Coin
Bubble??)
What is also
most
interesting:
no parallel
announcement
that Waymo
was hiring
“thousands of
attendants” to
ride around as
"drivers" in
these
“thousands of
minivans”.
Guess what
that means…
The Kornhauser
Scale is
going to start
really going
up!!! J
While
ultimately
they’ll need
about 35
million of
these to
provide
affordable
mobility to
all in the US,
this is a real
start at
making this
into a
business as
opposed to an
NSF-style
study that
collects dust
on a shelf or,
worse yet, a
digital
manuscript
that is never
downloaded by
anyone outside
a "group of
three". This
is a major
announcement!
From Stan Young: It will be interesting to watch. It probably has the OEMs, Uber and Lyft scared out of their wits. Based on any objective comparison of accomplishment with automated vehicles, there is not a close second to Waymo, despite all the claims to the contrary by trade rags – and the competition knows it. Still a huge unknown concerning the ‘social side’ of riding in an un-attended vehicle, but we will likely get over it like we did with elevators. ‘Thousands’ of vehicles if deployed in one city will put it on scale of Uber and Lyft – an interesting study when/if it comes to that.
...An issue is: where will Waymo choose to deploy (and for Waymo, the word "deploy" is the right word... they make the decision where to place these, in some sense take it or leave it... as opposed to waiting for people to show up at a dealership to buy or have it stay on the lot or have some governmental agency thinking that it actually has a role/power/where-with-all to “deploy”) where, when and how many. They could "flood/concentrate" on Chandler/Phoenix/Tuscon area with scale to be really relevant and substantively demonstrate the evolution of mobility, or they could sprinkle them out nationwide and remain irrelevant everywhere. I like the "flood/concentrate" approach in a state (Arizona) where they seem to be truly welcomed and whose climate, topography and road network are "easy". More importantly it would demonstrate the viability/challenges of the at-scale approach. From our simulations we uncovered that at-scale, one might need to be managing as many as 20,000 aTaxis in a 2.5x2.5 mile area (the extreme in Manhattan, which may be the last place that you want to try this) but it can be large. We’ll drill down in our data and take a look at Chandler/Phoenix and report back as to what we think it would take to provide mobility for all. Alain
Jan. 9, T. Papandreou & E. Casson. "... Waymo driverless service..." Read more Hmmmm... Tim and Ellie made presentation at the Transportation Research Board's Vehicle-Highway Automation (AHB30) Committee meeting on Tuesday in which they gave an update on Waymo's progress to launch "Waymo's driverless service" (slide 11), an app-based ride hailing service to the general public in a geo-fenced area of Arizona. To date Waymo has been testing such a service using volunteer riders in their driverless vehicles in various areas around the country (slide 7): however, to date, except for one ride given to Steve Mahan in Austin, TX, rides on normally operating public streets have always had trained Waymo-authorized personnel (an attendant) in the vehicle capable to intervene in the driving of the vehicle should the need arise. Since October, in Arizona, those personnel no longer sit behind the wheel, but are in the back seat so that Waymo can observe the response of the volunteer riders to riding in a vehicle on normal public streets under normal conditions without anyone in the front seats of the vehicle.
Tim said, without providing a specific date, that Waymo will soon launch "Waymo's driverless service" providing mobility to the general public on public roads in a geo-fenced area of Arizona. I asked Tim "Will that service be offered with vehicles that have an attendant in the vehicle?". Tim's answer was "No!". I asked a follow-up question: "Will these vehicle's have telemetry capabilities that enable these vehicles to be closely monitored from a "situation room" or "control center" that would enable remote operation of the vehicle, should the need arise?". Tim's answer was "No!". Another questioner asked if the geo-fenced area included special "connected vehicle" road infrastructure improvement that Waymo's system will be relying on?" Tim's answer was "No!".
While the definition of "soon" was not given, I've taken this as a really big pronouncement that Waymo is actually going to go to launch commercially-viable on-demand mobility to the general public on conventional public roads. This is really big news because this is finally going to enable us to begin to evolve on the "Kornhauser Scale" ( log of (world-wide VMT of Driverless (VMT-D) vehicles without a human attendant/driver on board accumulated while providing mobility to the general public on conventional roadways). So far we are beyond the "undefined value" associated with VMT-D = 0 and are at KS = 1 only by virtue of the one Steve Mahan ride in Austin). :-) Alain
AP,
Nov. 7, 2017 "Waymo,
the
self-driving
car company
created by
Google, is
pulling the
human backup
driver from
behind the
steering wheel
and will test
vehicles on
public roads with only an
employee in
the back seat.
The company’s
move — which
started Oct.
19 with an
automated
Chrysler
Pacifica
minivan in the
Phoenix suburb
of Chandler,
Ariz. — is a major step toward vehicles driving
themselves on
public roads
without human
backup
drivers. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Not to be
too critical,
but Waymo
is still just
'Self-driving'
. While they
moved the
'engineer'
with the
ability to
'take over and
drive the
vehicle' from
behind the
wheel to the
back seat,
this is just a
step along the
broad
'Self-driving'
continuum
which is a
vehicle that,
under certain
circumstance,
can drive
itself, but
does that only
if there is a
person ready
and able to
take over if
the unexpected
appears.
The
big-leap/major-step will come when Waymo
removes the
'engineer'
entirely from
the vehicle and
it is
human-less
when it
arrives to
pick up a
passenger and
drives
away
human-less
after the last
passenger(s)
disembark.
That enormous
leap-of-faith
in the
technology
will mark Waymo's
inception of
the Driverless
Era. (or
what Waymo
prefers to
call 'Fully
Self-driving'
era.)
Just
to be clear,
when that time
comes, I'm
sure that
Waymo
will have
telemetry
throughout
that
Driverless
vehicle and
there will be
a room full of
engineers in Waymo's
'Situation
Room'
ready to take
over the
driving should
the need
arise.
However,
until that
time, Waymo
is just like
all the other
wanabes,
they are just
'Self-driving'
without the
'Fully'.
The
reason why
'remote
emergency
driving' is
'Driverless'
is because it
scales. By
that I mean
that it takes
the provision
of horizontal
mobility on
our public
streets from
needing at
least one
human per
vehicle to
needing less
than one human
per vehicle.
Initially the
remote driver
will monitor
one car.
Before you
know it that
person will be
monitoring
two, four,
eight, ...
vehicles and
truly
Driverless
with zero
remote human
oversee-ers
will be
approached
asymptotically.
But just like
the old saw
between the
engineer and
the
mathematician:
engineer and
mathematician
were sitting
on a bench
recalling
their youth...
Engineer said
"Long ago, I
was sitting on
this very
bench with my
girl. We
wanted to kiss
but we were
too far
apart. So we
agreed to move
towards each
other by
halving the
distance
between us on
each move.
The
mathematician
blared "
You're so
stupid! If
you did that,
you never came
together!"
The engineer
just smiled:
"we got close
enough!".
Alain
May 18,
Enormously
successful
inaugural
Summit
starting with
the Adam
Jonas video
and finishing
with
Fred Fishkin's
live interview
with Wm. C
Ford III.
In between, serious engagement among over
150 leaders
from
Communities at
the bleeding
edge of
deployment,
Insurance
struggling
with how to
properly
promote the
adoption of
technology
that may well
force them to
re-invent
themselves and
AI (Artificial
Intelligence)
and the
various
technologies
that are
rapidly
advancing so
that we can
actually
deliver the
safety,
environmental,
mobility and
quality of
life
opportunities
envisioned by
these
“Ultimate
Shared-Riding
Machines”.
Save the Date
for the 2nd
Annual... May
16 & 17,
2018,
Princeton NJ
Read
Inaugural
Program with
links to
Slides. Fishkin Interview of Summit Summary
and
Interview of
Yann LeCun.
Read Inaugural
Program with
links to
Slides. Hmmmm... Enormous thank you to all who
participated.
Well done!
Alain
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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