http://SmartDrivingCar.com/7.08-NoWelcome-021519
8th edition of the 7th year of SmartDrivingCars
Feb. 8, F. Fishkin, , "What can autonomous vehicle companies learn from the Amazon HQ2 cancellation in NY? Plenty, says Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser. That and more in Episode 91 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast with co-host Fred Fishkin. " Hmmmm.... Now you can just say "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!" . Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay. Alain
3rd Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit
evening May
14 through May
16, 2019
Save the Date; Reserve
your
Sponsorship
R. Mitchell, Feb 14, "It was an extraordinary vote of confidence for autonomous driving by the nation’s top vehicle safety agency. Two years ago, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced crash rates for Tesla cars dropped by almost 40% after installation of a driver-assist technology called Autosteer.
“Forty percent. That was an eye-popper,” said R.A. Whitfield, director of Quality Control Systems Corp. and an expert in statistics. So “breathtaking and remarkable,” he said, that he didn’t quite believe it. “Extraordinary claims ought to be backed by extraordinary evidence.”
But when Whitfield requested the supporting data, he encountered a thick bureaucratic wall at NHTSA, the taxpayer-funded agency primarily responsible for vehicle safety in the United States. On Nov. 27, 2018, after a federal lawsuit and almost two years, NHTSA finally released the data. Whitfield was shocked. In a detailed, 25-page report issued on Feb. 8, he said the NHTSA study violated basic principles of standard research methodology to the point where no conclusion of any kind could be justified
The episode
raises
questions that
go far beyond
whether
Tesla’s
Autopilot is
safe. It draws
attention to
the collection
and
transparency
of data that
will be
crucial to
crafting laws
and
regulations
governing the
use of
vehicles that,
in whole or in
part, can
drive
themselves —
and the extent
to which
driverless-technology
companies can
win public
trust.
The episode raises questions that go far beyond whether Tesla’s Autopilot is safe. It draws attention to the collection and transparency of data that will be crucial to crafting laws and regulations governing the use of vehicles that, in whole or in part, can drive themselves — and the extent to which driverless-technology companies can win public trust.
Most researchers and the general public have little data available to understand what happened in that crash. Uber's reaction was to apologize, pay the victim's family a legal settlement and avoid a public trial. The National Transportation Safety Board, or NTSB, released a preliminary report last May that noted that the Volvo car’s automatic brakes were turned off and that the woman was wearing dark clothes and was hard to see. But little underlying data about Uber’s driverless system was revealed...."
Read
more Hmmmm..."...Alain
Kornhauser,
who heads
Princeton
University’s
autonomous
vehicle
engineering
program, has
another
problem with
the NHTSA
finding: The
data show
that, if
determination
of safety is
the goal,
NHTSA is
asking the
wrong
questions, he
said. He notes
that the NHTSA
study didn’t
assess whether
Autosteer was
turned on or
off when the
air bags were
triggered.
“Isn’t the
issue of
safety of
Autopilot the
question of
when Autopilot
is engaged
versus not
engaged? The
question is
not whether
Autopilot is
available or
not,”
Kornhauser
said. “Maybe
we need more
transparency.
What we
probably need
is for NHTSA
to release all
of the data
that they were
given by
Tesla.”..." .. Alain
CA DMV, Feb 12, links to the Vehicle Disengagement Reportings for the 12 months Dec 1, 2017 through Nov 30, 2018. Read more Hmmmm... Very informative. Read especially Tesla, Waymo and GM/Cruise.. Alain
T. Higins, Feb 13, "...The California Department of Motor Vehicles on Wednesday released self-reported data from companies with permits to test autonomous vehicles on public roads. The reports offer a glimpse into the progress of developing driverless technology, which could reshape personal transportation by improving road safety and potentially creating massive new businesses....
Alphabet
Inc.’s Waymo,
which has
logged the
most test
miles on
public roads,
recorded about
1.2 million
miles in the
reporting
period that
ran from
December 2017
through last
November. That
was more than
triple the
number of
miles logged a
year ago. Its
rate of
disengagement
improved to
0.09 per 1,000
miles from
0.179 in
2017... a 50% improvement. Not bad, but probably
still at least
10x too high.
"Good enough"
depends on
Waymo's
precise
definition of
a
disengagement.
In the "worse
case" it means
that Waymo's
system would
cash once
every 10,000
miles had a
human not been
behind the
wheel.
(Technically
the rate could
be worse if
Waymo only
drove "easy
miles"
throughout the
year (so that
Waymo could
report a good
rate?);
however, it
would be so
stupid of them
to do that.
Waste all that
time and money
driving 1.2M
miles just for
bragging
rights, no
way! It is
more likely
that Waymo,
and all other
serious
competitors,
drove
harder-than-normal
miles in an
effort to
stress test,
learn and
improve. They
each know that
if they can't
get their
systems to go
at least
100,000 miles
between
crashes caused
by the
automated
driving
system, then
they can't be
Driverless
and are
relegated to
"Self-driving".
In that case,
they should
simply do what
Tesla is
doing...
Requiring (not
as well as
many would
like) adult
supervision at
all times.
They are not
playing in the
Cal DMV
autonomous
vehicle
testing game.
They are just
doing
self-driving
on public
streets. In
your private
driveway...that's
a whole
different
story...
A. Davies,
Feb 13,
"...But like
many
standardized
tests, the
reports miss a
lot. They are
poor tools for
understanding
how well this
technology
works, and how
each company’s
progress
compares to
their
competitors’.
Some in the
space gripe
that the
reports risk
encouraging
engineers to
baby their
cars in a bid
to keep
disengagements
low, to juke
the stats.
Still, in a
new industry
built on
complex
software and
hardware, in
which secrecy
is paramount,
any public
information
can be
revealing. And
there is
knowledge to
be gleaned
from these
thousands upon
thousands of
pages..." Read
more Hmmmm... Another take on the DMV data.
While these
data, (as well
as essentially
all data),
"miss a lot",
these are very
"revealing".
Realizing that
these data are
only
information
and aren't
definitive of
anything,
designing
testing plans
to "pad the
numbers" is
simply
stupid. The
tests are
focused on
learning and
improving.
Everyone knows
that you learn
best by
challenging
your
limitations.
Easy tests
reveal
nothing.
Cheating/fraud is a completely different
animal.
Safety/Crashes
can't be swept
under the rug
when this
technology is
used to
generate
revenue, and
no one has
forgotten the
VW scandal.
Consequently
everyone is
behaving above
board trying
to get to a
point when
crashes are
very unlikely
and revenue
can start to
be
generated.
Alain.
F. Lambert,
Feb 13,
"Tesla’s
‘Autonomous
Mode
Disengagement’
report for
2018 has been
released by
the California
DMV. It shows
that the
automaker is
still not
officially
testing fully
autonomous
driving in
California.
That’s despite
CEO Elon Musk
saying that
the
California-based
company is
aiming to have
its ‘full
self-driving
capability’
ready this
year and
running its
own employee
“full
self-driving
program”.
Should Tesla
owners with
the ‘Full
Self-Driving
package’ be
worried about
this? I am on
the fence.
To Tesla’s
defense, they
undoubtedly
have the great
advantage of
running their
software on
‘shadow mode’
on hundreds of
thousands of
vehicles. They
also say that
they test
vehicles “on
public roads
in various
locations
around the
world” –
meaning not in
California.
But on the
other side, it
is weird that
Tesla appears
to be actively
avoiding
California,
the company’s
home, to test
fully
autonomous
vehicles.
I also find it
hard to
reconcile this
with the “full
self-driving
program” that
Tesla is
running with
employees.
We reported
last year that
Tesla is
recruiting
employees to
enroll in its
‘full
self-driving
program’ to
install its
latest HW3 in
their own
Tesla vehicles
and test its
latest
self-driving
software.
I find it hard
to believe
that some of
the “hundreds”
of employees
in this
program are
not in
California. Read
more Hmmmm... Tesla must just feel that its cars
are not
"autonomous
vehicles"
They are just
vehicles in
which driver's
hands aren't
on wheel and
feet aren't on
brakes/accelerator some of the time. Which is a self-driving
vehicle ("SAE
Level -47.3")
and is not an
"autonomous
vehicle". It
doesn't even
have LiDAR,
how could it
be? Seems as
if all the
other ones
do. Who knows
what "full
self-driving"
is. Is that
like a "Full
Monty"??
K.
Naughton, Feb
14, "Ford
Motor Co. and
Volkswagen AG
are
progressing
toward a
potential
agreement to
join forces on
self-driving
cars and have
overcome
earlier
obstacles,
according to
people
familiar with
the talks.
Breakthroughs
in the
deliberations
Thursday
include a
possible
framework for
Volkswagen to
work with and
invest in Argo
AI, the
Ford-backed
autonomous-vehicle
startup, said
the people,
who asked not
to be
identified
because the
talks were
private. The
automakers
discussed an
approximate
valuation for
the company of
$4 billion,
one of the
people
said.....
Argo AI was
formed in 2016
by Bryan
Salesky, an
early leader
in Google’s
self-driving
program, and
Pete Rander,
who helped
pioneer Uber
Technologies
Inc.’s
autonomous
efforts. The
company’s
technology
drew positive
reviews in
November when
analysts and
media rode
along in its
test cars at
an event in
Miami.
Where Argo has
lagged is in
winning the
outside
investment GM
has drawn with
Cruise.
Japan’s
SoftBank
Vision Fund
and Honda
Motor Co. last
year committed
to invest a
combined $5
billion in
Cruise. " Read
more Hmmmm... Waymo
is worth $175B...
Argo, $4B,
Waymo is
"Driverless";
Argo is
"Self-driving"
??? Since
$175B /= $4B;
then
"Driverless"
/=
"Self-driving".
Q.E.D. Alain
M. Dixon,
Feb 14, "Ahead
of its
anticipated
initial public
offering this
year, Uber
reported a net
loss of $865
million in the
fourth
quarter. That
figure,
however, was
aided by a tax
benefit that
saved the
company from
reporting a
$1.2 billion
net loss in
the period. On
an adjusted,
pro-forma
basis, Uber’s
net loss in
the final
quarter of
2018 was a
slimmer $768
million.
The figures
are an
improvement of
sorts. The
firm reported
a pro-forma
net loss of
$939 million
in the
preceding,
third quarter
of 2018, but
also reported
a smaller
pre-tax net
loss of $971
million.
Regardless,
Uber’s stiff
losses
continued in
the quarter.
In Q4 2018,
Gross bookings
(the amount
collected
before it pays
drivers) went
up 11 percent
quarter over
quarter, to
$14.2 billion,
while revenue
increased 2
percent
quarter over
quarter to $3
billion... "
Read
more Hmmmm... These are the important numbers...
(before they
pay drivers,
up 11%; after
they pay
drivers up
2%). If Uber
operated
aTaxis.... Up
11 rather than
2 on the
revenue side.
Also..."Year
over year,
Uber’s gross
bookings
increased 37
percent" ...nice... "and
revenue
increased 24
percent. " ...nice... "
But as a
percentage of
gross
bookings,
revenue
declined to
21.3 percent"
...not bad... "These
numbers
exclude the
impact of SEA
and Russia. ...Great! Nothing but a quagmire. Let them
have it...
Alain.
M. Daus, Feb 14, "Late this afternoon, Uber Technologies Inc. (Uber) filed a lawsuit against the City of New York seeking to overturn Local Law 147 which was passed by the NYC Council, and signed into law by Mayor Bill de Blasio on August 14, 2018, creating a “vehicle cap” on for-hire vehicles (FHVs) operating in New York City. Uber did not request an immediate order to lift the FHV cap, so there is no current impact on the status quo..." Read more Hmmmm.... Not easy to do business in NYC. Alain
S. Dixon,
Jan 7, "A
smart city is
a data-driven
city, one in
which
municipal
leaders and
citizens have
an
increasingly
sophisticated
understanding
of conditions
in the areas
they oversee
and live in,
including the
urban
transportation
system. In the
past,
regulators
used
questionnaires
and surveys to
map user
needs. Now,
leaders can
connect the
dots about
people,
places, and
products using
a vast array
of data from
the Internet
of Things,
artificial
intelligence,
and other
digital
technologies.
Using this
information,
they can gain
a more
accurate
picture in a
much shorter
time frame at
a lower cost
to more
proactively
develop
informed
decisions... Sounds good but seems really hollow and
overoptimistic...
..Casual
ridesharing is
common in
cities such as
Washington, DC
(where it is
known as
“slugging”)
and New York,
but less so in
other US
cities... This is symptomatic of the Half-bakeness...
Casual
ridesharing is
NOT "common"
in any city.
Having one
example does
not make it
common.
Casual
ridesharing is
some
ridiculously
small
percentage of
the person
trips in
Washington.
The vast
majority of
person trips
in Washington
are taken as
single
occupants/drivers
in cars!!
"Bus rapid
transit" is
essentially
non-existant
and is nothing
but an
oxymoron.
Sure, there is
an XBL lane
leading to the
Lincoln
Tunnel, but
that is a
one-off. ...
Bicycles, were
once dominant
in Beijing,
but now are at
best 1% of the
trips. Lime
scooters...
maybe for the
indestructible
teenagers...
Others, not so
much. Today
we get around
driving cars
alone. A
smart city
would find a
comparable
alternative.
Putting everything is just a few places connected by the only few stops that a subway or a bus rapid transit can effectively serve, only benefits the developers of vertical ghettos. What made them the "smart alternative"??? Why would employers want to stuff workers floor above floor when most of those worker interact electronically all day and could just as easily work from home. Aren't all those concepts of "Smart Office Towers" doomed? That's enough. ....
DCMI
Methodology
We chose more
than 60 unique
data
parameters
based on a
review of
existing
literature,
their
correlations
with economic
growth, and
our research
team’s
analysis.... ...
... We
assigned each
metric a score
between 1 and
5 based on the
data
parameters
within it.
Depending on
the metric,
score
assignment
involved
converting a
qualitative
assessment
into a number,
indexing data
to create a
relative
score, or
both. We
applied some
data
parameters and
metrics to
more than one
theme... This was really cooked... Just take
...."Transit
Safety = f(
Road Quality,
Walkability
Score, ..) ...What??? Doesn't anyone raise their hands??
......."Versatility
= f( Presence
of tube or...,
BRT, ) ...What??? ......."Customer Satisfaction=
f(Satisfaction
with Public
Transport ) ...Isn't Public Transport ... Transport that
serves the
public. Is
it really
better if it
is controlled
by the public
sector? .. Read
more Hmmmm.... This
is a good read
if you read
each sentence
with "What
definition of
"Smart" made
this "Smart""
. Alain .
M. Owen, Feb 12, "...Apple's solution is described in a patent published on Tuesday by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, titled "Wireless vehicle system for enhancing situational awareness." In short, it is a system for how a vehicle can interpret wireless messages from nearby electronic devices to determine their location relative to the car and their motion, and use the information to warn the driver or to take evasive action. ..." Read more Hmmmm... The operative word is "could" as opposed to "will". Another one of these "solutions" that is essentially useless until market penetration is more than significant. Also one has to be careful about "calibration" and "interference" that introduce error and bias into the "measurements" such that false value probabilities are sufficiently large so as to render the approach DoA. No worry, it's only a patent and ClickBait. Alain
M.
Allenven, Feb
11, "Qualcomm,
Nokia and
Samsung are
among those
supporting a
request by the
5G Automotive
Association
(5GAA) for
permission to
conduct
Cellular
Vehicle-to-Everything
(C-V2X) in the
upper portion
of the 5.9 GHz
band,
something the
Wi-Fi Alliance
and other
groups want
the FCC to
reject.
The 5GAA filed
a waiver
request back
in November
saying the
FCC’s current
rules for the
5.9 GHz
band—adopted
well before
the
development of
C-V2X—restrict
intelligent
transportation
system (ITS)
operations to
those that use
the dedicated
short-range
communications
(DSRC)
standard. The
deadline for
reply
comments,
which had been
extended to
accommodate
the
International
Consumer
Electronics
Show (CES),
was last
week..."
Read more
Hmmmm... I'm clueless. Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">
3rd
Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit
evening May
14 through May
16, 2019
Save the Date; Reserve your Sponsorship
Catalog
of Videos of
Presentations
@ 2nd Annual
Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
Photos
from 2nd
Annual
Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
Program
& Links to
slides from
2nd Annual
Princeton
SmartDrivingCar
Summit
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="89"
height="52">
Feb. 10, F.
Fishkin, ,
"Special
edition with
Matthew Daus
former
Commissioner
of NY Taxi
&
Limousine
commission to
discuss NYC's
congestion
pricing and
efforts to
improve
mobility for
all in he NY
metropolitan
region."
Feb. 8, F.
Fishkin, ,
"What's the
latest in
smart driving
cars? Listen
in to lively
discussions
with Princeton
University
Professor
Alain
Kornhauser,
co-host tech
journalist
Fred Fishkin
and guests.
How soon will
you be riding
in a self
driving car?
This is the
podcast to
tune in to for
real info
without hype
or spin. "
Feb. 1, F. Fishkin, , "The National Transportation Safety Board unveils the 2019-2020 Most Wanted List of Transportation Safety Improvements. Put down the mobile device, stop speeding and make new safety technology standard equipment. NTSB Office of High Safety Project Manager Dr. Ensar Ecic joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss. "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!" . Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay. Alain
Feb. 1, F.
Fishkin, ,
" New York
begins data
collection on
Uber and Lyft
rides,
AutonomouStuff
continues to
grow, another
arrest in
alleged theft
of Apple self
driving
secrets...and
more in
episode 87 of
Smart Driving
Cars. Join
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin and
subscribe!"
F. Fishkin, Jan. 18, "Ride Systems and Double Map combine to form Journey ..providing real time transit information. CEO Justin Rees chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Also in this episode VayaVision's technology to fuse sensor data for self driving with CEO Ronny Cohen."
F. Fishkin, Jan. 18, "In this episode from CES 2019, Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin welcome guests Michael Fleming, CEO of TORC Robotics, Regulus Cyber CEO Yonatan Zur and Arbe VP Bill Latino. Tune in to the Smart Driving Cars podcast and subscribe!"
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
Feb 1, "The Congestion Surcharge (Tax Law Article 29-C) was enacted on April 1, 2018, with collection of the surcharge scheduled to begin on January 1, 2019. The onset of collections was delayed due to a temporary restraining order (Taxifleet Management LLC, et al. v. State of New York) that was lifted by the Court on January 31, 2019. Accordingly, the Congestion Surcharge must be collected beginning at 12:01 am on Saturday, February 2, 2019....
...
Recordkeeping
Persons or
entities
liable for the
surcharge must
keep records
that are
sufficient to
determine
whether the
surcharge was
properly
applied, and
must
electronically
transmit those
records to the
Tax Department
upon request.
This includes,
but is not
limited to,
the following
for all
transportation
that is
subject to the
surcharge:
A.
Marshall, Jan
31, "In 2007,
New York
City’s Taxi
and Limousine
Commission, in
a belated
embrace of the
21st century,
required that
every taxi
plying the
streets of the
five boroughs
start taking
credit card
payments....
For the TLC,
they made work
more
interesting,
because along
with those
readers came
GPS trackers
that became a
cornerstone of
the agency’s
growing data
operation....axis
provided
insight into
the city’s
transportation
ecosystem. Are
cabs speeding
along a
certain
stretch of
street? Time
to review the
street design.
Getting stuck
at the same
intersection
every rush
hour? Maybe
rethink the
traffic light
timing.
And starting
Friday, New
York will
start clawing
in the same
kind of data
from the
ride-hailing
companies that
have stormed
its streets in
recent years.
... " Read
more Hmmmm... It will be very interesting to
observe the
real behavior
of Lyft &
Uber,
especially in
the outer
boroughs. To
date, the Lyft
& Uber
data have not
divulged {O,
oTime, D,
dTime} of
individual
trips to the
level of
precision that
the T&LC
has been for
years
collecting
from Yellow
(and Green)
cabs . Can't
wait to look
at precise
individual {O, oTime, D, dTime} data
of Lyft &
Uber trips and
compare/contrast with conventional cabs. It will be very interesting. Alain
R. Redman,
Jan 23,
"Amazon.com
Inc. has begun
field-testing
a compact,
self-driving
delivery
vehicle dubbed
Amazon Scout.
The e-tailing
giant said
Wednesday that
six of the
autonomous,
all-electric
vehicles —
about the size
of a small
cooler and
emblazoned
with the Prime
logo — are now
making package
deliveries in
a neighborhood
in
Washington’s
Snohomish
County.
In the pilot,
Amazon Scout
will deliver
packages
Monday through
Friday during
daylight
hours. The
six-wheeled,
self-guided
vehicles roll
along their
delivery route
at a walking
pace but
initially will
be accompanied
by an
employee,
according to
Amazon. The
company said
it developed
the device at
its
research-and-development
lab in Seattle
to ensure the
vehicles can
safely
navigate
around
pedestrians,
pets and other
objects in
their
path...." Read
more Hmmmm.... See
video
Makes so much
more sense
than drones.
Very
beginning. So
potentially
valuable to
Amazon. Of
course they
are in it to
win it. Alain
A.
Chottani, Dec.
2018, "...What
is happening
is fairly well
understood, if
initially
underestimated.
Digitization
and other
technological
advances are
exposing the
vulnerabilities
in every
industry,
particularly
retail. And
now, logistics
companies are
starting to
feel the heat.
Our new
research has
turned up five
trends that
offer
startling
indicators of
impending
change for the
trucking,
rail,
warehousing,
and logistics
companies that
move America’s
merchandise.
Start with
autonomous
trucks (ATs),
which will
change the
cost structure
and
utilization of
trucking—and
with that, the
cost of
consumer
goods.
Sixty-five
percent of the
nation’s
consumable
goods are
trucked to
market. With
full autonomy,
operating
costs would
decline by
about 40
percent,
saving the US
for-hire
trucking
industry
between $85
billion and
$125 billion.
The big
question is
how this
savings will
be
distributed.
How will
shippers and
carriers
divide the
lower costs of
logistics? Or
will most of
the surplus
move to
consumers, in
the form of
lower
prices?..."
Hmmmm.... This is a serious in-depth report on the
Logistics
industry and
the potential
implications
of automation
and
digitization
throughout the
industry for
not only
trucks but
also
railroads.
Although, the
report fails
to consider
that railroads
may themselves
have an
opportunity
with
automation to
effectively
compete with
long-haul
trucking.
Short-fast
"engineerless
trains" with
driverless
drayage could
seriously
impact
long-haul
trucking.
Think about
it. Alain
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
Waymo
team, June 13,
"Ariel rides
after school.
Neha hops to
the grocery
store. Barbara
and Jim zip
around town
while kicking
back.
They’re all
part of the
Waymo early
rider program
we launched
last April.
Today, over
400 riders
with diverse
backgrounds
use Waymo
every day, at
any time, to
ride all
around the
Phoenix area.
Their feedback
helps us
understand how
fully self
driving cars
fit into their
daily lives.
One year in,
our early
rider program
and our
extensive
on-road
testing is
helping us
build the
world’s most
experienced
driver. In
fact, our
fleet of cars
across the
U.S. is now
driving more
than 24,000
miles daily;
that’s the
equivalent of
an around the
world road
trip! Here’s a
quick report
on how our
riders use
Waymo, what
we’ve learned,
and what’s
next....As
some of the
first people
in the world
to use
self-driving
vehicles for
their everyday
transportation
needs, our
early riders
are helping
shape this
technology.
Thanks to
their
feedback,
we’re refining
the rider
experience to
make sure
that: ...
nobody wants
to carry
grocery bags a
block down the
street... " Read
more Hmmmm....
Yipes!! The
personal car
isn't bad
enough in its
focus on
private
single-occupant
parkingSpot2parkingSpot mobility? Are we now going to have Waymo
providing it
Door2Door with
zero
opportunity to
share rides
and while
delivering
negative
public
benefits of
increased
energy,
pollution and
congestion
with all of
its empty
vehicle
repositioning.
No wonder the
CPUC voted to
forbid
ride-sharing.
Did Waymo made
them do it
since Waymo
hasn't done
ride-sharing
in Phoenix?
Having 2 or
more people in
the car isn't
ride sharing
if they would
have all gone
together in
their own car
had Waymo not
been there. So
Bad!!! Without
ride-sharing,
this is just
expensive,
energy
inefficient
and
environmentally
challenged
private
chauffeuring
for the
entitled
privileged
class:
See
video Just
like watching
Oszzie & Harriet
or Leave
it to Beaver.
For Waymo to
"Win it",
they'll need
to embrace
ride-sharing
because no
"Blue-state"
PUC is going
to be as
impressionable
as as
California's.
Alain
KMay 24,
"About 9:58
p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's. At least this gets Volvo "off the hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please
describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
K. Pyle, May 9, "Safety and, as importantly, the perception of safety could be the pin that pricks the expectations surrounding the autonomous vehicle future. Recognizing the importance of safety to the success of this still nascent industry, autonomous taxi start-up, Voyage, recently placed their testing and reporting procedures in an open source framework. ...Oliver Cameron, Voyage Co-Founder and CEO, is excited to see participation and says, “We can’t wait to have all of these contributions from companies from around the world; contribute to build the actual standard in autonomous safety.” Read more, Hmmmm.... See the video that was played at the Princeton SDC Summit which generated substantial positive discussion at the Summit. See also full length video. Alain
A. Madrigal, Mar 28, "On Tuesday, Waymo announced they’d purchase 20,000 sporty, electric self-driving vehicles from Jaguar for the company’s forthcoming ride-hailing service.... But the company embedded a much more significant milestone inside this supposed announcement about a fancy car. With orders now in for more than 20,000 of these vehicles and thousands of minivans that Chrysler announced earlier this year, Waymo will be capable of doing vast numbers of trips per day. They estimate that the Jaguar fleet alone will be capable of doing a million trips each day in 2020. ..." Read more Hmmmm...Yup!! This is HUGE! It will change the city and the key to making it so it doesn't make thing worse is Ride-sharing. If we ride-share we'll reduce energy, pollution & GHG by more than 50% and provide high-quality, affordable mobility indiscriminately for all. It becomes the new high-quality, low-cost mass transit. If it's kept/operated as another alternative for the 1%ers to be chauffeured alone, then the outcome is UGLY. Ride-sharing is KEY! Alain
R. Mitchell,
Mar 22,
"Police late
Wednesday
released a
video that
shows an Uber
robot car
running
straight into
a woman who
was walking
her bicycle
across a
highway in
Tempe, Ariz.
The woman was
taken to a
hospital,
where she died
Sunday night.
The video,
shot from the
car, is sure
to raise
debate over
who's to blame
for the
accident. In
the video, the
victim, Elaine
Herzberg, 49,
appears to be
illegally
jaywalking
from a median
strip across
two lanes of
traffic on a
dark road. But
she was more
than halfway
across the
street when
the car —
traveling
about 40 mph,
according to
police — hit
her. The car
did not appear
to brake or
take any other
evasive
action....
Bryant Walker
Smith, a law
professor and
driverless
specialist at
the University
of South
Carolina,
said:
"Although this
appalling
video isn't
the full
picture, it
strongly
suggests a
failure by
Uber's
automated
driving system
and a lack of
due care by
Uber's driver
as well as by
the
victim."..."
Read more Hmmmm... "..."What
we now need is
for the
release of the
radar and lidar
data,"
Princeton's
Kornhauser
said in an
email. (Lidar
is a sensing
technology
that uses
light from a
laser.)
"Obviously,
the video of
the driver is
extremely bad
for Uber and
probably
implies that
Uber should
suspend all of
its
'self-driving'
efforts for a
while if not
for a very
long while.
"The
'self-driving'
systems are
supposed to
have
'professional'
overseers who
are really
supposed to be
paying
attention
during these
'tests'.
Apparently
Uber didn't
make it clear
in this case."
Kornhauser
questioned the
police
description of
a situation
that would
have been
difficult to
avoid. He said
Uber should
reveal what
its
collision-avoidance software was doing during the couple of seconds
before impact.
"The
front-facing
video suggests
that this
person was
crossing the
lane at a slow
speed and
should have
been noticed
by the system
in time to at
least apply
the brakes, if
not stop the
vehicle
completely,"
he said.
"While a human
may not have
been able to
avoid this
crash, a
well-designed,
well-working
collision
avoidance
system should
have at least
begun to apply
the
brakes."..."
"
... Again, my sincerest condolences to
Elaine
Herzberg's
family and
friends.
The
simple
arithmetic
is: She
crossed more
than a lane
and a half
before being
struck or more
than 15 feet.
Average
walking speed
is about 4.6 ft/sec
which means
that she was
"visible" on
this stretch
of road for
more than 3
seconds.
Uber's speed
of 38 mph =
55.7 ft/sec
means: Uber
was 150 ft
away when she
began crossing
the left-hand
lane and could
have been
visible by an
alert driver.
The car's lidar
and radar
surely must
have "seen"
her beginning
at about that
time. Car
stopping
distance
including
"thinking time
used in The
Highway Code"
@ 38mph is 110
feet. The
driver should
have been able
to stop 40
feet short.
Any Automated
Emergency
Braking (AEB)
system should
have been able
to stop the
car in little
more than the
stopping
distance of 72
feet, half way
to Elaine.
This simple
arithmetic
suggests that
there may be a
very fundamental
fatal flaw in
Uber's AEB.
And
the driver was
not paying
attention. At
3 seconds
prior to
impact, Elaine
was within a
12 degree
field of view
when she began
to cross the
left lane.
While outside
the fovea,
this is well
within a
normal gaze
had the
operator been
looking out
the window.
The
released video
is from a
"dash
cam&qu ot;
and is
unlikely to be
the video
captured by
Uber's
"Self-driving"
system (or
whatever Uber
calls it).
That video may
well be at a
much higher
resolution and
frame rate.
Uber MUST
release that
video (not
just the
dash-cam
video) as well
as the radar
and
lidar
data that was
being used by
their
"Self-driving"
system. Uber
was testing
its system at
the time of
the crash and
therefore MUST
have been
logging those
data in case
something went
wrong. Uber
needs those
recorded data
in order to
have a chance
to learn what
went wrong and
fix it.
Something did
go wrong, very
wrong. Uber
and everyone
else MUST also
have the
opportunity to
learn from
this tragedy.
So Uber MUST
release all of
the data.
Alain
G.
Kumparak,
Mar 13,
"...." Read more Hmmmm... This is
REALLY big news.This
marks the real
beginning of
on-demand
mobility
provided by
vehicles
without a
driver or an
attendant
on-board, only
the passengers
and the
vehicles used
normal public
roadways that
operated in
normal
everyday
manner and
used by
conventional
cars and
trucks.
D. Etherington, Feb 27, "California’s Department of Motor Vehicles established new rules announced Monday that will allow tech companies and others working on driverless vehicle systems to begin trialling their cars without a safety driver at the wheel. The new rules go into effect starting April 2 ..." Read more Hmmmm... Even though we have been expecting this, it is a major hurdle for it to actually have occurred. How long after April 2 will Waymo take to begin this type of testing. Again this is only testing and deployment, but NOT commercial service, which may happen first in Arizona, but it is a major step in this r-evolution. Commercial services are regulated by other agencies in California, not CA DMV. It is those other agencies that will need to grant/award the licenses for the various commercial operations where these driverless vehicles would be used. This regulation allows properly licensed commercial operations using CA DMV certified driverless vehicles to have those vehicles use California public roadways in delivering the otherwise licensed commercial activity. Note: CA DMV does not license the commercial transport of people or goods. That is the purview of other CA regulatory agencies. Alain
May 18,
Enormously
successful
inaugural
Summit
starting with
the Adam
Jonas video
and finishing
with
Fred Fishkin's
live interview
with Wm. C
Ford III.
In between, serious engagement among over
150 leaders
from
Communities at
the bleeding
edge of
deployment,
Insurance
struggling
with how to
properly
promote the
adoption of
technology
that may well
force them to
re-invent
themselves and
AI (Artificial
Intelligence)
and the
various
technologies
that are
rapidly
advancing so
that we can
actually
deliver the
safety,
environmental,
mobility and
quality of
life
opportunities
envisioned by
these
“Ultimate
Shared-Riding
Machines”.
Save the Date
for the 2nd
Annual... May
16 & 17,
2018,
Princeton NJ
Read
Inaugural
Program with
links to
Slides. Fishkin Interview of Summit Summary
and
Interview of
Yann LeCun.
Read Inaugural
Program with
links to
Slides. Hmmmm... Enormous thank you to all who
participated.
Well done!
Alain
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is
maintained by
Alain
Kornhauser
and hosted by
the Princeton
University
Leave
|Re-enter
[log in to unmask]" alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.39&filename=dhbhaandkmfbffia.png" class="" width="106" height="88" border="0"> [log in to unmask]" alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.40&filename=lglcejopfgfnajaj.png" class="" width="238" height="92" border="0">[log in to unmask]">Mailto:[log in to unmask]