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Saturday, June 8, 2019

http://SmartDrivingCar.com/7.25-TruckDrivers-060819
25th edition of the 7th year of SmartDrivingCars

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  What Truck Drivers Think About Autonomous Trucking

W. MacNaughton, June 1, "We've all heard about the advent of Autonomous Trucking - but mostly from people who work in the tech industry.  So this week, I've been visiting (and sleeping, eating and showering in) truck stops in Nevada, Utah and Idaho to hear what truck drivers themselves have to say about the future of the profession. ..."  Read more  Hmmmm... This is excellent.  One thing that was missed...  If done appropriately, (operative word here is appropriately, not really what has been done so far...) ... ""autonomy" could help me drive much more safely and really help me if it focused on reducing the stress or anxiety that driving causes me.  It would really be nice if I could relax and think about something else at least some of the time when I drive.  Much of driving is very simple... but very boring. Please help me do my job more safely.  I'll then be fresh and really be able to handle the tough hard stuff.  Do for me what automation does for pilots.  I'm just as important."  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">   Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 111

F. Fishkin, June 9, "Is GPS ruining your brain? Hear how one of the pioneers of the technology responds to that report. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin tackle that and..what truckers think of autonomous trucks...self driving Lyft vehicles pass a milestone in Vegas...and news on Gatik AI, Drive AI, Apple, Tesla and more. Episode 111 of Smart Driving Cars!"  Just say "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!" .  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Ditch the GPS. It’s ruining your brain

M. O'conner, June 5, "It has become the most natural thing to do: get in the car, type a destination into a smartphone, and let an algorithm using GPS data show the way. Personal GPS-equipped devices entered the mass market in only the past 15 or so years  ???... Actually we put the first nationwide GPS system, CoPilot,  on the market @ J& R Computer World in August 1997 :-) ...  , but hundreds of millions of people now rarely travel without them. These gadgets are extremely powerful, allowing people to know their location at all times, to explore unknown places and to avoid getting lost.

But they also affect perception and judgment. When people are told which way to turn, it relieves them of the need to create their own routes and remember them. They pay less attention to their surroundings. And neuroscientists can now see that brain behavior changes when people rely on turn-by-turn directions.

In a study published in Nature Communications in 2017, researchers asked subjects to navigate a virtual simulation of London’s Soho neighborhood and monitored their brain activity, specifically the hippocampus, which is integral to spatial navigation. Those who were guided by directions showed less activity in this part of the brain than participants who navigated without the device. “The hippocampus makes an internal map of the environment and this map becomes active only when you are engaged in navigating and not using GPS,” Amir-Homayoun Javadi, one of the study’s authors, told me.

Read more  Hmmmm... Now I know why I can't function anymore.  :-(  Abstract of the study "Topological networks lie at the heart of our cities and social milieu. However, it remains unclear how and when the brain processes topological structures to guide future behaviour during everyday life. Using fMRI in humans and a simulation of London (UK), here we show that, specifically when new streets are entered during navigation of the city, right posterior hippocampal activity indexes the change in the number of local topological connections available for future travel and right anterior hippocampal activity reflects global properties of the street entered. When forced detours require re-planning of the route to the goal, bilateral inferior lateral prefrontal activity scales with the planning demands of a breadth-first search of future paths. These results help shape models of how hippocampal and prefrontal regions support navigation, planning and future simulation."  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="126" height="36">  Tesla – the Dark Horse MaaS Provider? #SmartDrivingCarSummit

K. Pyle, June 7, "Could the robotaxi model that Tesla’s Elon Musk has been touting be a successful approach for a Mobility as a Service (MaaS) model? After some recent first-hand experience with the Tesla driving experience, MaaS champion, Princeton’s Dr. Alain Kornhauser states why he believes Musk be on the right path. In the above video, Kornhauser provides an overview of some of the innovative human-machine research initiated at the 2019 SmartDrivingCar Summit, the importance of community acceptance of autonomous vehicles and, at approximately 03:55, the discussion of Tesla as a MaaS provider.

As Kornhauser mentions, it’s plausible to believe that such a service could quickly scale to something like 2.5% of the daily U.S. rides. As he notes in the above interview, that would equate to a little more than 60% of today’s public transportation ridership...."  Read more  Hmmmm... See video.  Think about it. :-)  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="161" height="20">  Global EV Sales In April 2019: Over 166,000 At 2.1% Market Share

J. Pontes, June 3, "Tesla Model 3 sales globally are almost three times higher than the second best plug-in electric car, but BYD remains the biggest manufacturer so far this year.  In April, global sales of plug-in electric cars grew at a slower pace than we would hope for, but 29% gain year-over-year is not a bad thing either.

In total, EV Sales Blog estimates some 166,200 sales at an average market share of 2.1%.

Taking into consideration the growth of all-electric cars by 43%, the slowdown was caused by plug-in hybrids (again), which now hold just 29% share out of the overall BEV/PHEV segment.  After four months, sales stand at over 662,000 and 2.1% market share. The target for 2019 is 3.5 million (compared to 2 million in 2018)."  Read more  Hmmmm...  17,464 is not bad, but production is supposed to be 5,000 per week. Hmmmm  ???   Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Electric Vehicle Sales Up 70% In Europe

M. Kane, June 3, "... #2 Tesla Model 3 — After a delivery peak in March, the poster child for electromobility has dropped to more “normal” performances, with Tesla delivering 3,738 units of its sedan in April. Looking at individual markets, the midsize model was mainly delivered in Norway (720 units), Germany (514), the Netherlands (467), Switzerland (492), and Sweden (446). May seems to be following April performances, but expect another Tesla tide in June..."  Read more  Hmmmm...  Enormous drop from March. They still lead YtD with 23,322; Renault Zoe @15,292.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="126" height="36">    Ken Pyle's Appeal to Waymo

K. Pyle, June 9, "@Waymo @SmartDrivingCar Dr. Kornhauser and I would love to report on what you are doing as part of your #meetWaymocontest..." Read more  Hmmmm... Ken, this is too much fun!  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Lyft's self-driving car service in Vegas passes 50,000 rides

S. Lekach, May 31, "Lyft's self-driving cars powered by Aptiv have been picking up passengers around Las Vegas for the past year. This week the autonomous ride service hit 50,000 rides.   The cars are requested through the Lyft app as usual, but are clearly noted as autonomous vehicles. Lyft works with self-driving company Aptiv to offer the service, which charges riders the same as the equivalent usual Lyft ride. A safety driver is still in the car.

At the 50,000 ride marker, Lyft pointed out that its self-driving cars average a 4.97 star rating and 92 percent of riders gave feedback that they felt safe during the ride. For most riders, this was their first time in an autonomous car. ..." Read more  Hmmmm...  Getting there; however, nothing is reported about "disengagements".  This begins to prove that people will ride a computer driven car that has an attendant onboard.  Doesn't say anything about "if no attendant is onboard".  There is essentially zero business case for an automated  mobility system that has an attendant onboard.  Unfortunately, this says nothing about the viability of the technology (attendant-less) that Lyft (and Uber) needs to support its current stock price.  :-(  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Self-driving train goes wrong way in Tokyo; 14 hurt in crash

APF, June 2, "Fourteen passengers were injured after a driverless five-car train in suburban Tokyo went in the wrong direction and crashed into a buffer stop, Japanese police said Sunday.  Local media reported that some injuries – the first resulting from an accident involving an automated train in 30 years – appeared to be serious but non-life-threatening....

Compared to self-driving cars that have recently taken the road in several countries on a test basis, automated trains have a relatively long history in Japan...."  Read more  Hmmmm...  Very unfortunate, but reality.  Japan will learn from this crash, improve the "30 year old (/antiquated?)" control system and move on to create an even better and safer driverless train to serve some of Japan's mobility needs.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="32" height="32">  Evolution of BOSTON DYNAMICS ROBOTS

June 9, 2018,  See video  Hmmmm...  Pretty amazing. Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Why Aren’t Cities Getting Ready for Autonomous Vehicles?

L. Bliss, Ma7 30, "...So, given what they already know, city officials are surely taking steps to steer us away from an all-autonomous gridlocked hellscape—right? Alas, no. According to a new study published in the Journal of the American Planning Association, very few local leaders are working to anticipate the effects of self-driving cars. And though the arrival of these vehicles en masse could still be decades away, the authors write that now is a rare window of opportunity for cities to write policies that tackle both the unwanted effects of AVs as well as other big civic challenges...."  Read more  Hmmmm...  At the beginning, cities aren't a good place for driverless vehicles. Cities have too much invested in their hopelessly poor, hopelessly bankrupt transit systems. No one working in any transit system dares to create a welcoming environment to a potential competitor.  Communities, smaller cities and transit deserts are he places to start.  It is easier technologically and socially. Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="78" height="23">  There's A Drivers Ed Course For Those Who Test Self-Driving Cars On Public Roads

E. Garsten, June 9, "...But U.K.-based CAT Driver Training has won accreditation for a four-day course aimed at teaching engineers and others involved in testing autonomous vehicles how to do so more safely....  Launched last November, the main thrust of the Autonomous Safety Driver Training Course is centered on defensive driving,...

“How can somebody develop a system to drive safely if they have no knowledge of advanced, or defensive driving?” said Hoad. “You might need to decide when to take over, you might need to anticipate a failure or a vehicle doing something extraordinary on a roundabout that might take somebody untrained by surprise and manage not only yourself and the environment around you but the potential for the system not to behave in the way you might. Quite simply they’re learning how to evaluate road correctly, assess hazards, forward plan, observe.”..."  Read more  Hmmmm... Training of AV "Attendants" is absolutely necessary as may well be the training of each buyer of a Tesla with AutoPilot.  Attending is all about being able to sense that the AV system is about to do the wrong thing.  Once the Self-driving car starts doing the wrong thing, the attendant's "knee jerk" reaction must be able to "save the day".  That is NOT easy because there is essentially zero time to think. All one can do is react. Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">   Self-driving delivery van startup Gatik AI comes out of stealth with Walmart partnership

K. Korosec, June 6, "Gatik AI,  an autonomous vehicle startup that came out of stealth Thursday with $4.5 million in funding and Walmart  as a customer, is aiming for the sweet middle spot in the world of logistics.

The company, which operates out of Palo Alto and Toronto, isn’t deploying autonomous delivery bots built for sidewalks, nor is it aiming for self-driving trucks, or even robotaxis to shuttle around people. Instead, the founders of Gatik AI are developing a business that will do short hauls of goods between businesses using autonomous light-commercial trucks and vans.

The Ford transit vehicles outfitted with Gatik’s self-driving system will drive up to 200 miles a day and stay within a city environment, co-founder and CEO Gautam Narang told TechCrunch....  The company has been testing its autonomous vehicle technology on public roads in California for about 18 months...."  Read more  Hmmmm... This is Self-driving... an Attendant is on-board.  It is NOT Driverless.  Alain



Half-baked stuff that probably doesn't deserve your time 

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  This is what it's like to control an autonomous car from miles away

S. Lekach, June 1, "The exit ramp is a long, curving slope, and you have to make sure the 50-foot big rig you're driving carefully navigates the bend and doesn't fly out of control at a high speed.  But the thing is, you're not actually there. You're in a room in Silicon Valley, watching the ramp unfold in front of you on several screens. That heavy load you're carrying is thousands of miles away in Florida.

Welcome to teleoperated driving, or remote-controlled driving with a human in front of a steering wheel, brake, and gas pedals, and a "windshield" plastered with monitors. It's a method that allows autonomous vehicles to operate without anyone inside. Instead, there's a watchful remote driver, or operator, there for trickier moments that the robo-truck or vehicle can't handle...."  Read more  Hmmmm...  Please No!!!!!!!!!  This is NOT the right way to do "trickier movements".  This is total Bull.  No way an operator can perform "trickier maneuvers" better remotely, than she can do it from the driver's seat.  Please don't even try this.  If you need a driver in your system, put the driver in the driver's seat, please (unless you are on a resupply mission in Afghanistan or invading Moscow. ;-))  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="44" height="22">  Robo-deliveries are now a reality in China

Smebiz, June 3, "FORGET drones. The future of deliveries may be robo-vans.

A Chinese startup called Neolix kicked off mass production of its self-driving delivery vehicles over a week ago – saying it’s the first company globally to do so – and has lined up giants such as JD.Com Inc and Huawei Technologies Co as customers. Neolix expects to deliver a thousand of the vehicles, which resemble tiny vans, within the first year as it broadens out..."  Read more  Hmmmm... Spending someone else's money to kick off mass production of something is easy, but it DOESN'T make it a REALITY in China or anywhere else, unless what is mass produced actually works safely.  To my knowledge, the hard part... that it works safely...  has NOT been demonstrated.  Alain


 C'mon Man!  (These folks didn't get/read the memo)

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Forget Driverless Cars, It's Flying Cars That Are About To Disrupt The Trillion Dollar Transport Industry.

D. Lerner, June 2, "...Flying Cars Will Be Huge And No I Haven't Lost My Mind..."  Read more  Hmmmm...  Yes you have!  C'mon Man!!!  Alain


Simply Click Bait


 Calendar of Upcoming Events:

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Professor Pascal Van Hentenryck and Alain Komhauser will discuss mathematical approaches that inform transportation policies and improve transportation networks.


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evening May 19 through May 21, 2020

On the More Technical Side

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

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Recent PodCasts

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot

F. Fishkin, May 25, " The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus...Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 109

F. Fishkin, May 25, " Say what you mean and mean what you say. When it comes to traffic laws, that's the way autonomous vehicles see it. What about the rest of us?... asks Princeton's Alain Kornhauser. Tune in as he joins co-host Fred Fishkin on that issue, the future of Tesla, the USPS tests self driving trucks and more on GM's Cruise and Google's Waymo."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup

F. Fishkin, May 18, "Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It's just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell

F. Fishkin, May 18, "In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR's benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police
Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell." 

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley

F. Fishkin, May 18, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers.

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 105 3rd Summit John Eggert & Kurtis Hodge

F. Fishkin, May 18, "At the third annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Velodyne execs John Eggert and Vidya Devarasetty outline the latest, lower cost LiDAR. And co-hosts Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin hop aboard the autonomous Olli for more with Local Motors Economist Kurtis Hodge."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund

F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund.

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 103

April 26, F. Fishkin, "GM's Cruise gets ready to take on Google's Waymo and its new partnership Lyft. Meanwhile Uber's IPO stalls and Tesla restructures its autopilot team. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more on the coming week's Smart Driving Car Summit."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 102

April 26, F. Fishkin, "VW unveils an Inclusive Mobility Initiative to help make future transportation better for all...a major theme of the upcoming Smart Driving Car Summit at Princeton. The University's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin tackle that...plus the latest of Uber, Tesla and more in Episode 102 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei Greenawalt'99/Via

April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 98- Matt Daus

April 5, F. Fishkin, "Here comes congestion pricing in New York City...but what will it mean? Former city Taxi and Limousine Commission head and transportation expert Matthew Daus joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Also...Tesla, VW and even Brexit! All on Episode 98 of Smart Driving Cars."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69

March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 82 - Intel, Sciarappo & Jitsik, Loeb

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9,  "One of the top chip makers in the world and a start up. Intel's strategic marketing director for autonomous driving Jill Sciarappo and the founder of Jitsik, Dr. Helen Loeb join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for Episode 82 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast from CES."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 81 - nVIDIA, Shapiro & Local  Motors / Olli, Hodge

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9,  "How NVIDIA is paving the way for self driving cars and a new OLLI automated transport from Local Motors. NVIDIA's Senior Director for Automotive, Danny Shapiro and Kurtis Hodge of Local Motors join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for another edition of Smart Driving Cars from CES 2019.."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 75 - PAVE; Nantel, Erlich, Riccobono   

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9,  "From CES in Las Vegas, a new industry organization, PAVE, is formed. Partners for Automated Vehicle Education. And some founding members join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for an on site discussion. Guests include National Safety Council VP Kelly Nantel, Voyage VP Justin Erlich and National Federation of the Blind President Mark Riccobono."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55

F. Fishkin,  Dec. 13,  "When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says "Not so fast."  The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui

F. Fishkin, Nov 29,  "What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge

F. Fishkin, Nov 22,  "The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 66 - Bishop & Zimmerman

F. Fishkin, Nov 8,  "Daimler is partnering with Bosch to bring an autonomous ride hailing service to San Jose next year. In this edition, the Director of Engineering at Bosch joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to outline how it will work. Plus Richard Bishop joins us fresh from an International Task Force on Vehicle Highway Automation in Denmark. And more!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV

F. Fishkin, Nov 1,  "California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state's deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code, Motorcycles

F. Fishkin, Sept 22  "In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety...and a champion racer. Beyond that....he's an old high school friend of Alain's! And there's more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!"

 Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy

F. Fishkin, Sept 6,  "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"


Recent Highlights of:

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Saturday, June 1, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  Uber’s First Earnings Report After I.P.O.: $1 Billion Loss

K. Conger, May 30, "Uber’s start as a publicly traded company has gone from bumpy to bumpier.  In its first earnings report since listing its shares on the stock market this month, the ride-hailing giant on Thursday reported its slowest growth in years and steep losses for the first three months of 2019..."  Read more  Hmmmm...  In its most basic form, the ride hailing business has revenue ($r) and costs ($c) proportional to number of rides (R).  Let $r = A*R and $c = B*R.  So Profitability (P) { P =  ($r -$c) = (A - B) * R } is all about (A - B) .  We know that at today's ridership, R(now), (A(now) -B(now)) is negative.  We also know that as ridership increases, new drivers will need to be paid more (B gets bigger), simply because the demand for driver services goes up.  We also know that to attract more riders, revenue per ride will necessarily go down (A gets smaller).  Yikes... Ride-hailing faces a double whammy... as it scales (gets more people to ride) it loses even more from the average rider than it does today plus that bigger negative number gets multiplied by a bigger number of rides. 

When each unit incurs a loss,  making up losses by increasing volume is known to not be a viable approach. Increasing volume when unit losses increase with increasing volume is really not viable! 

The only road to profitability, other than a major pivot, is to be more discriminating in who you serve... Serve fewer riders.  Unfortunately, when you finally get Ridership small enough so that A-B is positive, that number gets multiplied by a smaller number of riders such that the gross amount is nowhere near sufficient to justify valuations greater than that of a lemonade stand.  Uber serves about 1B trips per quarter, which means today, they loses $1/ride.  To be worth $40B they need to make $1 on each of the 4B trips they serve per year.  How Uber gets from a history of losing $1/ride to making $1/ride @ 4B rides/year is an open question.  As is making $10/ride @ 400M rides/year?  As is making $0.10/ride @ 40B rides per year?  Alain

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="133" height="21">  June 2019 Issue

M. Sena, May 22," In This Issue:
Third Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit  ... A fantastic 7 page detailed summary of the 3rd Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit.  Thank you!!!...
European Commission is getting it wrong on V2X  ... A most well-written and well-supported critical assessment of the EU Transport Commission's recommendation on Cooperative Intelligent Transportation Systems (C-ITS).  Read it carefully, including "There is justice after all"... European Parliament's reply to the Transport Commission's recommendation. ...
Dispatch Central
    Toyota backs off IEEE WAVE in U.S.  ... More details on Toyota's evolving position on V2X communication standards....
    Uber: A Fool’s Gold ... Yup!
    FCA and Tesla: Strange bedfellows .  ... I did not know that!...  
    Tesla’s fifteen minutes of European fame. ... March Model 3 sales in EU  of 15k.  If April is greater than 5k, fame may have legs....
    A Road Trip Down Memory Lane  ... Read with a smile.... 
A Dispatcher’s Musings: Here’s looking at you, kid  ... Everything has a downside.  I like to tell my students that one of the things that the human brain does very well if "forget".  "Optimal Learning" needs some "Optimal  Forgetting" where the objective function is Personal Privacy.  Sure, observe all you want to give me short-term convenience/pleasure, but erase all the data before anyone can use it to hurt me, where both the convenience/pleasure and the hurt are from my perspective, not yours!! 
 
 Read more  Hmmmm... In the aftermath of the Summit, reading and grading the student's final projects in my course and awarding final grades, I misses Michael Sena's early release of the June issue of his Dispatcher.  It is so excellent that I put out this special edition focused just on it.  Enjoy every word!!!   Alain

Saturday, May 25, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="47" height="27">  Speed cameras are coming to Philadelphia's deadliest road

P. Loeb, May 16, "...Sponsor Cherelle Parker says the cameras will photograph any car going more than 11 miles per hour over the speed limit..."  Read more  Hmmmm...  I really don't understand.  What is the meaning of the word limit ? (Hint.... "the utmost extent") 

So for humans a "speed" limit is actually a "Speed +10" limit.  That mean I can set my Cruise Control to "Speed Limit" +10 and I'll be just fine.  Does that also mean that I can code my driverless car "to do +10"???   If not, then why does a person capable of getting a driver's license get to go faster than a person who can't get a driver's license who is relegated to be driven by an autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) that is mandated to drive at a slower speed???? (Please don't tell me it is because the accuracy of the speed sensor is not precise (aka reliable enough).  May I use that excuse in my aTaxi code?)  This is a serious question!  There needs to be a level regulatory (rules of the road/traffic laws) playing field established for aTaxis and human drivers. This is NOT easy (but it could be as simple as:

SpeedLimit(aTaxi) = SpeedLimit (Humans) + 10

StopSign(aTaxi) = SropSign(Humans) +RollOnThrough if no one is around

RedLight(aTaxi) =  Redlight(Humans) + 3 more cars after the yellow, except in Boston where 5 more car after the yellow...  Alain

Saturday, May 18, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="126" height="36">  Making Smart Vehicles to Improve the Human Condition

K. Pyle, May 17, "3.5 million and 5+ million deaths per year are a couple of the statistics that stood out from the 2+ day, 3rd annual SmartDrivingCars Summit at Princeton. There are approximately 3.5 million individuals in the United States who never leave their homes and approximately 1.9M of those people have disabilities, according to Robbie Diamond, President & CEO of SAFE. He went on to say that, “Transportation is the biggest predictor of inter-generational upward mobility.”
His comments echoed the conference theme of improving mobility for all people, especially the mobility marginalized, to paraphrase Professor Alain Kornhauser. Kornhauser brought together participants from multiple disciplines and backgrounds to an event that is like no other. This year, he introduced a research element where there were a couple different opportunities to gauge the reactions of everyday people of varying abilities to various levels of autonomous vehicles...."  Read more  Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for such an excellent summary and all of the help.  Alain

Sunday, May 12, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="197" height="16"> Self-driving car company Cruise raises $1.15bn

S. Bond, May 7, "Cruise, the self-driving division of General Motors, has landed a fresh $1.15bn in funding, boosting its valuation to $19bn including the new funds and giving it additional firepower to launch a planned robo-taxi service this year.

The investment came from T Rowe Price, the mutual fund manager, as well as existing Cruise investors SoftBank’s Vision Fund, Honda and GM, the carmaker said in a statement. Including the latest round, Cruise has raised $7.25bn in equity in the past year, following previous injections from Honda and SoftBank.
.. "  Read more  Hmmmm...   Refer back to  Inside SoftBank's push to rule the road . What if SoftBank added Tesla to this chart.  That really creates a 2-person race with Waymo.  Duopolies aren't bad.  Alain

Sunday, May 5, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="140" height="17">  VW Inclusive Mobility aims to make sure tech takes care of everyone

A. Krok, May 2, "You can't please all the people all the time, but Volkswagen wants to make sure that when it moves into the next era of mobility, it won't leave any groups behind. 

Volkswagen this week unveiled its Inclusive Mobility Initiative, which sees the automaker working directly with outside groups to ensure that its future vehicles are capable of catering to people with disabilities..."  Read more  Hmmmm...This is fantastic and may well be in line with the focus we've taken with the upcoming 3rd Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit 10 days from now.  Our focus is on all people who have been marginalized by the unnecessary/non-inclusive/exclusive designs of our current forms of mobility, .  These designs are especially irresponsible when one no longer needs a person to drive... to keep the car from crashing while on its way from where people are to where the want to go.   What an enormous opportunity to be of service to so many that for what ever reason don't want or can't perform that task.  Yes, there are situations in which a professional is required.  At times, we all need we all need that the help of a professional.  But for all of those situations in which a professional is not needed, we have an enormous opportunity to be so much more inclusive by removing the other unnecessary exclusivities  that have consciously or unconsciously crept into our cars and transit systems.  Our mobility systems no longer need to be big and hold many people to make them affordable, no driver needs to be paid.  They no longer need to be constrained to only go between the few places than many want to go between at only certain times.  They can readily serve where only a few, even one, want to go between at whatever time.  The skill set needed to use and be served diminishes to the skill set needed by the easiest to use elevator. And so on...

Be sure to look VW's Inclusive Mobility Initiative.  Hopefully it encompasses and levels the mobility field  for the people that its cars have marginalized for 100 years.  Alain

Friday, May 3, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Tesla’s autonomy event: Impressive progress with an unrealistic timeline

T. Lee. April 24, "There's an old joke in the software engineering world, sometimes attributed to Tom Cargill of Bell Labs: "the first 90 percent of the code accounts for the first 90 percent of the development time. The remaining 10 percent of the code accounts for the other 90 percent of the development time."...

You can think of self-driving car development as occurring in two stages. Stage one is focused on developing a static understanding of the world. Where is the road? Where are other cars? Are there any pedestrians or bicycles nearby? What are the traffic laws in this particular area?

Once software has mastered this part of the self-driving task, it should be able to drive flawlessly between any two points on empty roads—and it should mostly be able to avoid running into things even on crowded roads. This is the level of autonomy Musk has dubbed "feature complete." Waymo achieved this level of autonomy around 2015, while Tesla is aiming to reach it later this year....

In this second stage, a company also needs to handle a "long tail" of increasingly unusual situations: ...Waymo has spent the last three years in the second stage...

Tesla says that's a 21-fold improvement over the Nvidia chips the company was using before. Of course, Nvidia has produced newer chips since 2016, but Tesla says that its chips are more powerful than even Nvidia's current Drive Xavier chip—144 TOPS compared to 21 TOPS.

But Nvidia argues that's not a fair comparison. The company says its Xavier chip delivers 30 TOPS, not 21. More importantly, Nvidia says it typically packages the Xavier on a chip with a powerful GPU chip, yielding 160 TOPS of computing power. And like Tesla, Nvidia packages these systems in pairs for redundancy, producing an overall system with 320 TOPS of computing power.... Regardless, both companies are working on next-generation designs, so any advantage either company achieves is likely to be fleeting....", Read more  Hmmmm... An absolute MUST read.  Alain

Friday, April 5, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Congestion Pricing Plan for NYC is Coming!

M. Daus, Esq, April 1, "Over the weekend, the New York State legislature agreed to pass congestion pricing legislation as part of Governor Andrew Cuomo’s budget bill for FY 2020. The legislation was finalized in the early hours today, and the Governor is expected to sign the bill into law immediately. The toll is intended to reduce traffic congestion while raising $15 billion between 2020 and 2024 to fix NYC subways and commuter rails.  Starting no sooner than December 31, 2020, motorists will be charged a toll to drive into Manhattan south of 60th street, excluding the FDR Drive and the West Side highway....

Only two categories of vehicles are specifically exempt from the law: emergency vehicles and qualifying vehicles transporting a person with disabilities. The law does not specify what qualifies as a “vehicle transporting a person with disability,” leaving any such determinations to the TBTA. A recent Bloomberg article discusses exemptions for people with disabilities (click here to review full article)..."  Read more  Hmmmm... Congratulations NYC!!! I've never understood why this isn't called "Value Pricing".  Was it the SAE??? or is it just that I don't seem to ever like the semantics used by others? This has been a long time coming and is a tribute to William Vickery, the Canadian-born Columbia University Professor of Economics and Nobel Laureate who tragically passed away shortly after being announced as the winner of the 1996 award in Economics.  Alain

Friday, March 29, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="155" height="20"> 10 Lessons From Uber's Fatal Self-Driving Car Crash

Hmmmm.... New Jersey is now started.  Hooray!! Alain

Sunday, March 17, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="116" height="32">Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the ‘mobility disadvantaged’

A. Kornhauser, March 13, "The following testimony was provided to the New Jersey State Assembly’s Transportation and Independent Authorities Committee on Monday, March 11....

What we need, what my ask is, that we create in New Jersey a “welcoming environment” for the research, testing and demonstration of this technology and work to focusing it on improving the mobility of the mobility disadvantaged...

While such a demonstration is not prohibited in New Jersey, it is not permitted.  

Consequently, this provides excuses and hurdles to bringing such mobility to our communities and tarnishes any other welcoming efforts aimed at enabling New Jersey to lead instead of follow in what may well address the fundamental objective of this hearing."  Read more  Hmmmm....Seems so simple. I have found it so incredibly hard. Alain

Friday, March 1, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="35" height="38">  FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT Lyft, Inc.

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">Autonomous Vehicles

Feb 25, " This workshop brought together experts in cyber-physical systems, machine learning, transportation engineering, and applied mathematics, both from academia and from industry, to help bridge the technical gaps and to facilitate exchange and collaboration across disciplinary boundaries..."  Read more  Hmmmm.... Slides and videos of the presentations are available here.   In particular, see..:

Friday, February 15, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Facing opposition, Amazon scraps New York HQ2 plans

T. Lee, Feb. 14, "Amazon is canceling its controversial plan to build a new corporate campus in the Long Island City neighborhood of Queens. The plan, which included almost $3 billion in subsidies and tax breaks, provoked a grassroots backlash... " Read more  Hmmmm....  An example of what happens when the "Welcome Mat' fails to include on one side...the grass roots... those who were supposed to be direct beneficiaries (those who were supposed to get the jobs) and those whose "back yards" were to be disrupted.  And on the other side ...  those being welcomed failed to "wipe their feet" by extracting too many incentives and failing to be respective of local values. 

Similarly with the California HSR.  California put out the Welcome Mat, but the technology didn't properly wipe its feet by promoting optimistic schedules and low-balling cost estimates, both of which finally caught up to them. 
Driverless Shared-ride mobility will have to avoid making similar faux pas; else, it simply isn't going to happen.  Alain

Friday, January 25, 2019

Thursday, November 22, 2018

 [log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="94" height="29"> Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

R. Mudge, A. Kornhauser, M. Hardison, Nov, 2018 "The surface transportation industry is in the early stages of a series of profound changes, stimulated by the development of increasingly sophisticated driving safety and automation technologies.   Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the speed with which these changes will take place and the nature of their impacts on safety, the overall demand for travel, vehicle sales, and vehicle ownership.  This report does not attempt to forecast the pace of these changes, instead advancing a list of “trigger points” that might serve as leading indicators of change....

What might these changes mean for actuaries and the insurance industry? Since Driverless vehicles will most likely be available only to fleet operators and not the general public, their actuarial and insurance implication will differ substantially from the implications of Safe and Self technologies that will be on vehicles purchased by consumers. But, will these vehicles continue to be insured in the same way as personal vehicles are today or will this practice change in some way. For example, if the burden of
liability shifts to the technology rather than the driver, then should actuaries focus on product liability rather than personal liability? To what extent does technology rather than personal behavior or demographics become the important link to liability? "
Read more  Hmmmm....  This is a very good report. Listen to SmartDrivingCar Podcast 68 with Dick Mudge. (Of course, I'm biased. Alain

Thursday, November 1, 2018

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  A Green Light for Waymo’s Driverless Testing in California

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles

Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)

Oct 16, Establishes New Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors:  Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)

Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..."  Read more Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="39" height="43"> Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="42" height="39"> Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM


Friday, June 15,  2018

Tuesday, June 12,  2018

 CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS

Sunday, June 3,  2018

  Waymo’s fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger

Friday, May 25,  2018

PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)

May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.

...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..." Read more  Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's.  At least this gets Volvo "off the hook". 

"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second)  So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!   

"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths."  Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle".  Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision?  If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate?  Why was the object classified as a   "Vehicle" ??  When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?  Why did it change classifications?  How often was the classification of this object done.  Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object.  In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a "pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)  

"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.

"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB:  Please describe/define potential  and erratic vehicle behavior   Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior".  This is fundamentally BAD design.  If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways. 

"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow!  If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle.  Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".  

"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design.  In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time.  If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it.  Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway.  This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the March 24 edition of SmartDrivingCar, See below.Thursday, May 10,  2018

Thursday, April 26,  2018

 This startup’s CEO wants to open-source self-driving car safety testing

Saturday, March 24,  2018

Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail

Tuesday, April 17, 2017

  Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

[log in to unmask]" alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.36&filename=ajafjpkfaclhelpc.png" class="" width="44" height="50" border="0">Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

Sunday, December 19, 2015

[log in to unmask]" alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.38&filename=ccalfjfhllohpdpa.png" class="" width="96" height="63" border="0">Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars

Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1.  Hmmm ... Watch Video  especially at the 13:12 mark.  Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above!  Also see his TipRanks.  Alain


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