Saturday, July 27, 2019
http://SmartDrivingCar.com/7.31-Postponed-072719
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Cruise
postpones plan
to launch
driverless
taxi service
in 2019
A. Hawkins,
July 24,
"Cruise will
miss its goal
of launching a
large-scale
self-driving
taxi service
in 2019, the
GM
subsidiary’s
CEO Dan Ammann
said in an
interview
Tuesday. The
company plans
to
dramatically
increase the
number of its
autonomous
test vehicles
on the road in
San Francisco,
but will not
be offering
rides to
regular people
this year.
Previously, GM
executives
told investors
that its
autonomous
ride-hailing
service would
be open to the
public by the
end of this
year. Now it
seems as if
Cruise is
moving away
from deadlines
and launch
dates
altogether.
Ammann, GM’s
former
president who
now leads its
autonomous
vehicle unit
in San
Francisco,
wouldn’t even
commit to
launching the
service next
year, in
2020....
Cruise is still waiting for the federal government to accept or reject its request to deploy a fleet of fully driverless Chevy Bolt vehicles without steering wheels or pedals. The request was in limbo until this past March, when the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it would solicit public comments and conduct a review. That process concluded in May, and now Cruise is waiting for a final verdict. “We’re in dialogue with them,” Ammann said of NHTSA. “And nothing further to comment on at this point.”...
It will
also host
community
events to
answer
questions from
residents of
San Francisco
who, in some
respects, are
the company’s
unwitting test
subjects in
its public
self-driving
experiments...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Starting in the Blue Chip cities trying
to serve those
that already
have lots of
mobility
options is
turning out to
be a
fundamentally
flawed
approach.
Wouldn't
it be better
to start
providing
mobility to
those in areas
that aren't
currently well
served by
existing
mobility
options...
cars and
transit. Find
such places
like Central
Jersey,
Chandler AZ,
South
Carolina, The
Villages and
Peoria be
precursors to
the
MountainViews,
Washington
DCs, Miamis,
SFs and LAs.
Start there
where the need
exists and
real benefits
can be
delivered.
See also Timothy
Lee's take on
this.
Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class="">
Smart
Driving Cars
Podcast
Episode 117 -
Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, July 27, "GM's Cruise taps brakes on plans for autonomous taxi service. So what's next? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser digs in along with co-host Fred Fishkin in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Also: Daimler and Bosch partnering for autonomous parking, Navya, Uber, Lyft and State Farm says drivers defeating the benefits new safety tech. Tune in and subscribe!
" Just say "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!". Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ... Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="63"
height="20">
Learning
to live
together
G.
Fernandez-Abascal,
"The curb is a
simple
demarcation
between two
spaces: the
roadway and
the sidewalk.
While their
origin had
little to do
with
transport,
they became
ubiquitous
during the
industrial
revolution as
a means to
manage the
movement of
vehicles,
people, and
water. The
curb today is
a highly
contested
piece of urban
real estate in
many cities
across the
globe. It has
accommodated
and served as
a space for
pedestrian
access to and
from the
sidewalk,
emergency
vehicle
access, access
to public
transport,
wayfinding for
visually
impaired
people, goods
delivery and
pick-up,
cycling
infrastructure,
passenger
pick-up and
drop-off,
repair and
maintenance,
waste
management and
surface water
runoff,
commercial
activities
(kiosks,
restaurants,
food trucks,
cafés,
ambulant
vendors), and
leisure. These
and other
concurrent
demands around
the curb space
involve a wide
range of
stakeholders
and
authorities
whose
activities are
often
disjointed and
infrequently
aligned with
broader
strategic
objectives.
Seemingly
mundane, the
importance of
the curb
derives from
its role in
fixing vital
space required
for the
negotiation of
cohabitation
between humans
and non-human
entities. This
light piece of
infrastructure
has also
become a
crucial
reference for
driverless
vehicles, as
it allows them
to safely
navigate our
cities.
Driverless
cars have the
potential to
either reduce
or increase
traffic, make
affordable
transport more
or less
accessible,
and lead to
denser cities
or even more
urban sprawl.
..." Read
more Hmmmm.... This is a very fundamental thought piece
focused on how
to begin to
alter the
design of our
living spaces
to better live
together and
how Driverless
mobility
(affordable,
on-demand,
24/7, shared
ride
(elevator-like
horizontal
mobility)) may
help us evolve
such a
future. Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Bosch
and Daimler
get approval
for Level 4
automated
parking in
Germany
A. Krok,
July 23, "Back
in 2017, Bosch
and Daimler
teamed up to
operate a
pilot program
for its
driverless
valet service.
Clearly, it
worked well
enough,
because that
program has
just been
given
clearance to
operate as
more than just
a pilot.
Bosch and
Daimler
announced
Tuesday that
their
automated
parking system
has been
approved for
operation. The
green light
came from
Stuttgart's
regional
administrative
authority, in
conjunction
with the
Baden-Württemberg
transportation
ministry. This
means it's the
first Level 4
parking system
to get
approval for
daily use.
Level 4 is the
first true
hands-off
level of
automation,
although it's
limited to
specific
situations and
locations.
Like the pilot
program, the
system will be
put to use at
the
Mercedes-Benz
Museum parking
garage in
Stuttgart.
Bosch is in
charge of
supplying the
infrastructure, while Mercedes-Benz provides the vehicles...." Read
more Hmmmm.... I'm sort of thrilled. This is low
hanging fruit
for this
technology.
If it can't do
this, it can't
take me from
the my
watering hole
to my front
yard after
I've had one
too many
(which may be
just one). I
hope that
Daimler and
Bosch will
keep working
to allow me to
have one too
many but much
more
importantly
serve the
mobility
marginalized
to get to a
better job, a
better school,
go to the
library, get
their hair
done, worship,
play ball,
watch a game,
... If the
market for
this
technology is
driverless
valet parking
for those that
can well
afford
traditional
valet service,
then it is
good that the
investment
community is
paying for the
development of
this
technology and
not the
general
public.
Also,
calling this
"Level 4"
highlights the
fundamental
problem with
SAE's Levels.
Sure, it is
driverless in
some highly
constrained
domain where
no
really useful
mobility
function is
being served
other than
"park my
car!". Is
a Tesla with
AutoPilot L4
because it can
be summoned
out of my
garage?? When
are Bosch and
Daimler going
to demonstrate
their
driverless
ability
using an as-is
public roads
in some
conditions
that servers
even one
person's
need/desire to
travel. We
might then be
able to call
that L4 on
those roads in
those
conditions.
Once that
first person's
need has been
served, we can
then look for
a 2nd, 3rd...
on more
streets in
more
conditions.
Then we may
have something
to talk to the
public about.
Until then,
all of this
will remain a
toy for 1% of
the 1%ers.
Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Navya
abandons plans
to enter
fully-autonomous
vehicle market
D. Symondsm
July 25, "In a
letter to
stakeholders,
French
autonomous
vehicle
manufacture
Navya has
altered its
plans to enter
the
fully-autonomous
vehicle market
and will
instead focus
on the
production of
Level 4
self-driving
technologies
for
third-party
developers. It
will also
continue its
efforts in the
development of
self-driving
trucks for the
transportation
of freight.
According to
the statement,
the company
was now
“aiming to be
the leading
player in
supplying
Level 4
autonomous
driving
systems that
the company
will
incorporate in
passenger and
goods
transportation
vehicles. As a
consequence,
Navya is
initiating a
transition of
its
activities,
moving from an
integrated
player to a
player
specializing
in the
supplying of
software and
sensor
architecture
to third-party
vehicles.” It
also said that
it would
“maintain
shuttle
production
during this
transition
phase”....
Navya
highlights the
slow movement
of legislation
and
development in
the fully
autonomous
vehicle market
and concedes
the autonomous
shuttle market
will remain
experimental
for the next
24 months
until the
safety driver
is
removed...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Waymo may end up being the only one left
standing
trying to
provide
affordable
driverless
mobility as a
service
through
neighborhood
public
streets.
Hopefully the
"experimental"
period will
not be longer
than 24 months
because Uber
and Lyft can't
wait that long
to begin to
scale. This
and GM's
decision and
the OEMs
lining up
to use Safety
Standards to
stall/kill
Driverless
Mobility as a
Service are
extremely bad
news for Uber,
Lyft and maybe
even DiDi. It
is also bad
news for
Velodyne
because
Self-driving
definitely
doesn't need
LiDAR and may
not even be a
nice-to-have.
Unless those
who would get
the most bang
out of
Driverless
(mobility
marginalized,
environmentalists promoting ride-sharing, community activists and
over-valued
ride-hailing
companies)
band together
to welcome
Driverless
technology,
its not going
to happen on
the people
movement
side. Even
then, Waymo
may be the
only entity
that has a big
enough war
chest to make
it happen.
The
"moving
things"/commercial
goods
movement side
may still have
some vital
signs in rural
settings or
the middle of
the night.
"Bezos" has a
business
case. Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="133"
height="21">
Putting
Their Heads
and Their Data
Together for
Us
M. Sena,
August 2019,
"After almost
four decades
of discussions
on standards,
countless
projects,
thousands of
conference
papers and
unreckonable
amounts of
money spent
supporting all
of these
activities, we
are finally
approaching
the time when
useful data
about the flow
of motorized
road transport
will be shared
among public
and private
enterprises in
a way that
will benefit
everyone who
is dependent
in any way on
processing the
data,
delivering it
in the form of
services and
using it. It
has taken this
long because
time was
needed for the
technologies,
the companies,
the
regulat-ing
authorities
and the public
to reach the
level of
maturity
necessary for
employing the
data
effectively.
We’re not
there yet, but
we’re in the
final spurt
stage. If you
are one of the
racers on the
track, dig
down deep for
the energy to
finish. If you
are not on the
track, do all
you can to
cheer on and
support those
who are. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Another excellent Dispatcher. Enjoy
interesting
comments on
the Lunar
Module and the
moon walk, the
EU data task
force,
attempts at
forcing
responsible
use of
scooters,
notes on the
passing of Lee
Iacocca and a little Mussing. Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="110"
height="23">
Elon
Musk teases
Tesla allowing
YouTube &
Netflix
streaming in
cars ‘soon’
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Pittsburgh
Reveals the
Downside of
Self-Driving
Cars
A. Schmitt,
July 18,
"...Pittsburgh
has been a key
testing ground
for the
technology.
With the
support of
Mayor Bill
Peduto, Steel
City is
currently
allowing five
companies to
test
driverless
vehicles on
public roads.
The public has
been exposed
to risks
associated
with being
guinea pigs in
an AV lab, yet
not a single
public meeting
has been held
to address
public
concerns, says
PPT. “The
hype from the
industry is
really
dominating the
discussion,”
said Laura
Weins,
director of
the group. “We
have literally
no regulatory
framework on
this. They
just do
whatever they
want and use
our public
right of
ways.”
Pittsburgh
does ask the
companies to
abide by a
voluntary
agree, but
there is no
enforcement
mechanism...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Given all the good hard work that has
been done on
the
technological/gizmo
side, it is a
shame that
everything has
been so sloppy
and so
minuscule on
the
sociological/customer-focused
side. What a
shame. The
whole business
is a Silicon
Valley train
wreck. Safety
is delivered
by Safe-driving
cars. Self-driving
cars deliver
comfort &
convenience
that allow
auto companies
to sell more
cars to
consumers. It
is Driverless
cars that
have the
opportunity to
provide
affordable
high-quality
mobility to
the mobility
disadvantaged
and, if
operated
appropriately,
can deliver
that high
quality of
service while
while sharing
rides and
being
environmentally
responsible.
Unfortunately,
Safe-driving
cars aren't
embraced by an
industry that
refuses to
admit that
their cars
have been
unsafe and
exalts the
prowess of
every driver,
sees the
comfort and
convenience of
Self-driving
as a money
machine and
subtly
sabotages
Driverless
mobility
machines as
threat to
their legacy
business
model. At
some point,
mass transit
wakes up and
discovers that
Driverless
cars can allow
them to grow
10x and
become
profitable.
Until that
happens,
Driverless
technology
will remain on
the book
shelf. So
sad!! Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Unlocking
Access to
Self-Driving
Research: The
Lyft Level 5
Dataset and
Competition
L. Vincent,
July 23, "At
Lyft, we
believe
self-driving
technology
presents a
rare
opportunity to
improve the
quality of
life in our
communities.
Avoidable
collisions,
single-occupant
commuters, and
vehicle
emissions are
choking our
cities, while
infrastructure
strains under
rapid urban
growth.
Our path
forward to
solve these
challenges is
clear: build
the world’s
best
transportation
and offer a
viable
alternative to
car ownership.
And that
translates to
an efficient
ecosystem of
connected
transit,
bikes,
scooters, and
shared rides
from drivers
as well as
self-driving
cars. Solving
the autonomous
vehicle
challenge is
not just an
option — it’s
a necessity."
...I contend
that Lyft
can't survive
without
Driverless...
"...
That is why today, I’m excited to announce that Lyft is releasing a subset of our autonomous driving data, the Level 5 Dataset, and we will be sponsoring a research competition. The Level 5 Dataset is the largest publicly released dataset of its kind. It includes over 55,000 human-labeled 3D annotated frames, a drivable surface map, and an underlying HD spatial semantic map to contextualize the data...
To do so,
we will be
launching a
competition
for
individuals to
train
algorithms on
the
dataset...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Interesting. Nice that they've
released some
of their
labeled data.
Others,
including
Intel/MobilEye,
Waymo and
GM/Cruise
should also
release some
of their data,
especially the
data involving
"corner cases"
... crashes,
near crashes
and mistakes.
Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="50"
height="39">
Despite
High Hopes,
Self-Driving
Cars Are ‘Way
in the Future’
N.
Boudette, July
17, "...A year
ago, Detroit
and Silicon
Valley had
visions of
putting
thousands of
self-driving
taxis on the
road in 2019,
ushering in an
age of
driverless
cars.
Most of those
cars have yet
to arrive —
and it is
likely to be
years before
they do.
Several
carmakers and
technology
companies have
concluded that
making
autonomous
vehicles is
going to be
harder, slower
and costlier
than they
thought. “We
overestimated
the arrival of
autonomous
vehicles,”
Ford’s chief
executive, Jim
Hackett, said
at the Detroit
Economic Club
in April....
The
industry’s
unbridled
confidence was
quickly dented
when a
self-driving
car being
tested by Uber
hit and killed
a woman
walking a
bicycle across
a street last
year in Tempe,
Ariz. A safety
driver was at
the wheel of
the vehicle,
but was
watching a TV
show on her
phone just
before the
crash,
according to
the Tempe
Police
Department.
Since that
fatality,
“almost
everybody has
reset their
expectations,”
Mr. Abuelsamid
said. It was
believed to be
the first
pedestrian
death
involving a
self-driving
vehicle.
Elsewhere in
the United
States, three
Tesla drivers
have died in
crashes that
occurred while
the company’s
Autopilot
driver-assistance
system was
engaged and
both it and
the drivers
failed to
detect and
react to
hazards....
“We are
able to do the
driving task,”
Tekedra
Mawakana,
Waymo’s chief
external
officer, said
in an
interview.
“But the
reason we
don’t have a
service in 50
states is that
we are still
validating a
host of
elements
related to
offering a
service.
Offering a
service is
very different
than building
a
technology.”..."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Not only "...Offering a service..." but having that
service be
purchased and
used by real
customers and
be respected
and not
trashed by
competitors "...is very different than building a technology..." !!!
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="156"
height="24"> Tesla
loses $408
million as
technology
chief J.B.
Straubel
departs
R.
Mitchell, July
24, "Tesla
Inc. continues
to lose money
as it sells
more cars. On
Wednesday, the
electric car
company
announced a
second-quarter
net loss of
$408 million.
Tesla bulls
say that’s a
welcome
improvement
compared with
losses of more
than $702
million in the
previous
quarter and
$742 million
in the second
quarter of
2018. To Tesla
bears, it
shows the
company can’t
earn annual
profits under
its current
structure and
business
strategy.
Tesla’s share
price dropped
11% in
after-hours
trading.
Even more
stunning than
the loss,
however, was
the
announcement
that Chief
Technology
Officer J.B.
Straubel is
leaving
Tesla....
Tesla’s
stock, always
volatile, has
been been on a
roller coaster
all year. It
closed at a
year-to-date
high of
$335.35 in
January. After
sales dived in
the first
quarter
because of
logistics
problems in
Europe,
according to
Tesla, shares
plunged as low
as $178.97,
and since have
rallied. They
closed
Wednesday at
$264.88, up
1.8%...." Read more
Hmmmm....
None of this
is easy even
when you are
the best of
the bunch.
Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Are
We Driving
Dumber In
Smarter Cars?
July 16,
"Drivers with
advanced
safety tech in
their vehicles
are taking
more risks.
Americans who
drive vehicles
equipped with
Adaptive
Cruise Control
(ACC) or Lane
Keeping Assist
(LKA), both
advanced
driver assist
features,
admit to using
their smart
phones while
driving at
significantly
higher rates
than those
without the
latest tech,
according to a
new State Farm
survey.
While these
features have
promising
safety
benefits,
they are
designed to
work in
conjunction
with engaged
driving
behaviors.
Forty-two
percent of
drivers with
Lane Keeping
Assist tech
stated they
“frequently”
or “sometimes” ... big difference between "Frequently" and
"Sometnmes"...
use
video chat
while driving
compared to 20
percent who
engaged in the
risky behavior
without the
advanced
technology...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Video Chat while driving... talk about
something that
should be
outlawed even
if you are
standing/sitting
still. See
also: As cars
get safer,
drivers take
more risks
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Xpeng
Motors
Launches G3
2020 Edition
The Xpeng G3 2020 Edition carries a newly upgraded version of XPILOT 2.5 with new features including TJA (Traffic Congestion Assist) and ICA (Intelligent Cruise Assist), enabling it to perform LCC (Lane Centering Control) function under both city drive and highway conditions. These new features increase the G3’s convenience, comfort and safety, by ensuring that the car remains centered in traffic lanes in both congested urban conditions and high-speed long-distance cruising, despite driver fatigue or uneven road surfaces. In addition, the new ALC (Automatic Lane Change) function allows the G3 2020 Edition to assess traffic and road conditions in real time, and automatically changes lanes just by triggering the turn indicator, facilitating more accurate overtaking and lane changing despite blind spots. These safety features are further supported by AI-powered driver fatigue and distraction warning, as well as driver heartbeat and health status monitoring. ... " Read more Hmmmm.... Impressive Chinese Tesla clone. Alain
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""> Scooter-sharing
Hype in
Europe, a Déjà
vu?
A. Kremer,
July 25,
"...However,,
the launch of
more than 12
electric
scooter-sharing
companies and
the
introduction
of 20k
scooters into
the Parisian
cityscape has
been far from
perfect ,
leading mayor
Anne Hidalgo
to refer to it
as a trend
“not far from
anarchy”.
Is history
repeating
itself? A lot
has been
written about
the
bike-sharing
craze in China
between around
2016 and 2018.
In some ways,
many of the
actions taken
by users,
companies,
investors and
even
regulators
seem to mimic
things we have
observed in
China before
(note that
scooter-sharing
companies are
blocked from
operating in
many Chinese
cities)....
I want to connect the dots between what is happening in the scooter-sharing space in Europe (and US) right now and how this relates to the bike-sharing craze in China. While this article is a reflection of my opinions, it also presents a possible future scenario of what will happen next in the scooter-sharing industry....
Getting
from a to b, a
basic need:
The great
thing about
ventures in
the
transportation
industry is
that companies
do not have to
educate
consumers
first about a
need they do
not have yet.
On the
contrary, just
like
e-commerce,
transportation
(“getting from
a to b”) is a
basic need
almost
everyone has
in some way or
another on a
daily basis.
As a result,
in theory, the
main task for
ventures in
this space is
educating
consumers
about
satisfying
their needs in
a different
way...." Read more
Hmmmm.... A
very
interesting
read. Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt=""> Wave
of
Concentration
in the
Autonomous
Driving Space
M.
Amblard, July
24, "Billions
are being
invested in
autonomous
vehicle (AV)
tech each
year. However,
the general
consensus is
that the
revenue growth
curve expected
from AVs is
not as steep
as anticipated
a year ago, at
least for the
next 3-5
years. In
addition, the
global
automotive
market started
to slow down
in 2018,
affecting
mainly the
lucrative
Chinese
market, and
the
probability
for a global
recession in
the next 12-18
months is
increasing.
This uncertain
situation is
forcing all
players to
lower their
breakeven
point while
continuing
investing in
autonomous
mobility, as
no one can
afford to lose
track of the
long term.
As a result,
the rate of
partnerships
and — to a
much lesser
extent —
acquisitions
has picked up
significantly
in the past 12
months. Some
of these deals
are not only
massive in
value and far
reaching, but
they also
bring about
unexpected
collaborations.
They are aimed
at sharing the
financial
burden and the
associated
technological
and business
risks...." Read more
Hmmmm.... A
good
compilation.
Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="110"
height="23">
Tesla says number one reason owners visit service
is to learn
how to use
Autopilot
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="78"
height="23">
What
It Is Really
Like Being
Inside A
Self-Driving
Car On Our
Public
Roadways
L.
Elliot, July
25, "I got
into a
discussion
recently about
the mysteries
of
self-driving
cars.
It happened
while I was on
a
cross-country
flight,
prompted by
the person
seated next to
me asking me
what it is
like to be
inside a
self-driving
driverless
car,
especially
once the
autonomous car
is underway
and rolling
along on a
public
roadway. The
question arose
after she had
noticed that I
was doing some
work regarding
autonomous
cars and we
traded stories
of what we
each do for a
living.
There
definitely
appears to be
growing
interest about
what happens
within a car
that is a
self-driving
car...." Read
more
Hmmmm....
Interesting
read. Alain
Half-baked stuff that probably doesn't deserve your time
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="89"
height="18">
SAFETY
FIRST FOR
AUTOMATED
DRIVING
M.
Wood, July
2019, "This
publication
summarizes
widely known
safety by
design and
verification
and validation
(V&V)
methods of SAE
L3 and L4
automated
driving. This
summary is
required for
maximizing the
evidence of a
positive risk
balance of
automated
driving
solutions
compared to
the average
human driving
performance.
There is
already a vast
array of
publications
focusing on
only specific
subtopics of
automated
driving. In
contrast, this
publication is
a
comprehensive
approach to
safety
relevant
topics of
automated
driving and is
based on the
input of OEMs,
tiered
suppliers and
key technology
providers. The
approach of
this
publication is
to
systematically
break down
safety
principles
into safety by
design
capabilities,
elements and
architectures
and then to
summarize the
V&V
methods in
order to
demonstrate
the positive
risk balance.
This
publication is
intended to
contribute to
current
activities
working
towards the
industry-wide
standardization of automated driving. ..." Read
more
Hmmmm.... I
included this
report in last
week's SDC
e-letter. I
repeat it here
in
"Half-baked"
because it
covers both
"L3" and
"L4". I think
that it is
relevant to
only to
systems that
have a driver
in the vehicle
("L3") and NOT
those that
don't ("L4").
This report is
sponsored and
written by
entities that
develop
products for
drivers
("L0,1,2,&3"),
not products
for providing
mobility
without human
drivers "L4".
The "L4"
community
should prepare
its own
"Safety First
for Driverless
Mobility on
Public
Roadways".
Moreover, if the "L3" community was really interested in safety, it would not only look at using the driver to help out the automated system when it fails to be safe, but also use the automated system to override the driver when he (and it is usually "he") exceeds safe speeds, safe following distances, passes on the right and other erratic misbehaviors. Alain
C'mon Man! (These folks didn't get/read the memo)
Simply ClickBait
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
[log in to unmask]"
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On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">
Recent PodCasts
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 116 - Jerome
Lutin
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Can technology dramatically improve the safety of bus transportation for pedestrians, riders and drivers? The lead investigator in a national study, Jerry Lutin, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on episode 116 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus...Tesla's new safety report, the latest from Lyft, Aptiv and a NY Times report on why driverless cars are taking longer than expected. Tune in and subscribe!."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 115
F. Fishkin, July 5, "VW invests billions partnering with Ford in autonomous startup Argo AI. Just one of many new alliances. That plus employing new safety tech for buses, the latest from VIA, Uber, Tesla and a farewell to Ross Perot on this edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 113
F. Fishkin, June 21, "With new European and Japanese car maker alliances, is Waymo throwing in the towel on driverless transportation? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser wonders out loud. That and more on Lexus, Local Motors and others with co-host Fred Fishkin on the Smart Driving Cars podcast. "
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J.
Hardiman NJM
F. Fishkin, June 9, "Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It's a win, win says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM's John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also...Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance
Elliot
F. Fishkin, May 25, " The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus...Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd
Summit Wrapup
F. Fishkin, May 18, "Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It's just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit
Leilei
Shinohara
& Staff
Sergeant
Terence
McDonnell
F.
Fishkin, May
18,
"In
this special
edition from
the 3rd Annual
Princeton
Smart Driving
Cars Summit,
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin are
joined by
RoboSense VP
Leilei
Shinohara on
the LiDAR's
benefits. And
view of
autonomous
technology
from law
enforcement
with New York
State Police Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit
David Kidd
& Cecillia
Feeley
F.
Fishkin, May
18,
"From the 3rd
Annual
Princeton
Smart Driving
Car Summit,
David Kidd
from the
Highway Loss
Data Institute
joins Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin and
then on site
preliminary
research
results on
mobility for
all with
Cecilia Feeley
and Andrea
Lubin from
Rutgers."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit
Anil Lewis
&
Katherine
Freund
F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei
Greenawalt'99/Via
April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 98- Matt Daus
April 5, F. Fishkin, "Here comes congestion pricing in New York City...but what will it mean? Former city Taxi and Limousine Commission head and transportation expert Matthew Daus joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Also...Tesla, VW and even Brexit! All on Episode 98 of Smart Driving Cars."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael
Sena'69
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
Smart
Driving Cars
Podcast
Episode 82 - Intel,
Sciarappo
& Jitsik,
Loeb
F. Fishkin,
Jan.
9, "One of
the top chip
makers in the
world and a
start up.
Intel's
strategic
marketing
director for
autonomous
driving Jill
Sciarappo and
the founder of
Jitsik, Dr.
Helen Loeb
join co-hosts
Alain
Kornhauser of
Princeton
University and
Fred Fishkin
for Episode 82
of the Smart
Driving Cars
podcast from
CES."
Smart
Driving Cars
Podcast
Episode 81 - nVIDIA,
Shapiro &
Local Motors
/ Olli, Hodge
F. Fishkin,
Jan.
9, "How
NVIDIA is
paving the way
for self
driving cars
and a new OLLI
automated
transport from
Local Motors.
NVIDIA's
Senior
Director for
Automotive,
Danny Shapiro
and Kurtis
Hodge of Local
Motors join
co-hosts Alain
Kornhauser of
Princeton
University and
Fred Fishkin
for another
edition of
Smart Driving
Cars from CES
2019.."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 75 - PAVE; Nantel, Erlich, Riccobono
F. Fishkin, Jan. 9, "From CES in Las Vegas, a new industry organization, PAVE, is formed. Partners for Automated Vehicle Education. And some founding members join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for an on site discussion. Guests include National Safety Council VP Kelly Nantel, Voyage VP Justin Erlich and National Federation of the Blind President Mark Riccobono."
Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55
F. Fishkin, Dec. 13, "When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says "Not so fast." The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui
F. Fishkin, Nov 29, "What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! "Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge
F. Fishkin, Nov 22, "The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 66 - Bishop & Zimmerman
F. Fishkin, Nov 8, "Daimler is partnering with Bosch to bring an autonomous ride hailing service to San Jose next year. In this edition, the Director of Engineering at Bosch joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to outline how it will work. Plus Richard Bishop joins us fresh from an International Task Force on Vehicle Highway Automation in Denmark. And more!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV
F. Fishkin, Nov 1, "California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state's deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code, Motorcycles
F. Fishkin, Sept 22 "In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety...and a champion racer. Beyond that....he's an old high school friend of Alain's! And there's more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!"Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
Recent Highlights of:
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="129"
height="76"
border="0">
Sunday, July 21, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="113"
height="21">
Tesla
Vehicle Safety
Report
Tesla,
July 16, "At
Tesla, we
believe that
technology can
help improve
safety. That’s
why Tesla
vehicles are
engineered to
be the safest
cars in the
world. We
believe the
unique
combination of
passive
safety, active
safety, and
automated
driver
assistance is
crucial for
keeping not
just Tesla
drivers and
passengers
safe, but all
drivers on the
road. It’s
this notion
that grounds
every decision
we make – from
the design of
our cars, to
the software
we introduce,
to the
features we
offer every
Tesla owner.
Model S, X and
3 have
achieved the
lowest
probability of
injury of any
vehicle ever
tested by the
U.S.
government’s
New Car
Assessment
Program.
... In the 2nd quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.27 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.19 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.41 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 498,000 miles.... " Read more Hmmmm.... This summary uses "accident" for Teslas and "crash" for NHTSA. This may suggest that the Tesla and NHTSA are not comp[arable... Tesla is reporting about apples and NHTSA is referring to "oranges". That notes; however, it does seem that for Teslas with and without AutoPilot and the other active safety features, there is consistency in the measure. A more detailed question arises about the equivalence of the driving domain for each category as well as who is at fault in each of these situations. Even in light of these issues and details, the large variation in the rates: 3.27 v 2.18 v 1.41 is very significant among Teslas. Seems as if AutoPilot and Tesla's other active collision avoidance safety features are improving safety of Teslas. The spread from the 0.5 value for NHTSA is really astonishing making Teslas much safer than the average of all other cars. Unfortunately these numbers only scratch the surface and beg for more details. In the past I have called for an independent evaluation of the Tesla crash statistics and I do that again there today. I'll offer to do it. Tesla should encourage someone to do it. As it stands today, not enough people believe or trust Tesla (see below) Tesla. That's unfortunate because improved safety is THE major objective of SmartDrivingCar technology. Alain
Sunday, July 14, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Ford-VW
alliance
expands to
include
autonomous and
electric
vehicles
A. Hawkins,
July 12, "In a
widely
anticipated
move, Ford and
Volkswagen
announced
Friday their
plan to expand
their
seven-month-old
alliance to
include
autonomous and
electric
vehicles.
As part of the
deal, VW will
invest a
whopping $2.6
billion in
Argo AI, the
autonomous
vehicle
startup based
in Pittsburgh
that
practically no
one had heard
of until
Ford’s own
eye-popping $1
billion
investment in
2017. VW
will invest $1
billion in
cash, as well
as $1.6
billion in
assets that
include the
auto giant’s Munich-based
Autonomous
Intelligent
Driving team,
which will be
absorbed by
Argo. After
the deal goes
through,
Argo’s
post-money
valuation will
be over $7
billion....
The deal also gives Argo a global reach. The company, which was founded by former Uber engineers with ties to Carnegie Melon University’s famed robotics lab, has been testing its cars with Ford’s backing in Pittsburgh, Detroit, Miami, and Washington, DC. Now it can also deploy its vehicles on European roads under VW’s guidance....
A month ago VW severed a partnership with Aurora Innovation, the autonomy startup founded by former Google self-driving head Chris Urmson. Argo was co-founded by Bryan Salesky, another former member of the Google self-driving team. He was also on the same team as Urmson in the 2007 DARPA autonomous vehicle challenge, which is seen as a watershed moment in the pursuit for self-driving cars. Ford dumped $1 billion into Argo in 2017 and has worked closely with the startup ever since....
Companies have been pairing up to work on self-driving cars for years now, but only recently has that relentless coupling taken on more serious overtones. Over the last few months:Apple acquired the startup Drive.ai (buying the beleaguered company literally as it was shutting down);
Honda has partnered with General Motors’ Cruise unit;
Volvo and Uber just unveiled their first jointly-developed autonomous SUV after three years of working together;
Waymo is teaming up with Renault-Nissan to bring the Alphabet unit’s self-driving minivans and trucks to Japan and France;
Fiat-Chrysler and Hyundai, along with Amazon, are both partners with self-driving startup Aurora."
Read more Hmmmm... That pretty much rounds up the serious deep pocket alliances: Waymo+, GM/Cruise+, Ford/Argo+, Uber/Volvo, Lyft/Active, Hyundai/Yandex and Aurora+ with SoftBank influencing in the wings. That leaves Zoox, Toyota, Daimler, BMW looking for dance partners???? Tesla doesn't seem to need one. (Would Elon sell to Toyota??). Alain
Friday, June 28, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="72"
height="21"> Apple
acquires
self-driving
startup
Drive.ai
I. Fried,
June 25,
"Apple bought
Drive.ai, an
autonomous
driving
startup once
valued at $200
million, and
has hired
dozens of
Drive.ai
engineers,
Apple
confirmed to
Axios on
Tuesday.
Why it
matters:
The deal and
hires confirm
that Apple
hasn't given
up its
autonomous
driving
project.
Details:
The deal comes
after Drive.ai
talked with
multiple
potential
acquirers, but
in the end
Apple won out.
Apple also
purchased
Drive.ai's
autonomous
cars and other
assets,
sources tell
Axios.
Drive.ai
ceased
operations
within the
last 2 weeks.
Apple’s hires
are mostly in
engineering
and product
design, per a
source.
The purchase
price was not
disclosed.
Apple was
expected to
pay less than
the $77
million
Drive.ai
raised in
venture
capital, to
say nothing of
the $200
million it was
valued at two
years ago,
after its
Series B
round, Axios'
Dan Primack
reported
recently.
The backdrop:
Drive.ai's
highlighter-orange
vans ferried
workers around
a business
park in
Frisco, Tex.,
and shuttled
fans in nearby
Arlington to
Cowboys games.
Drive.ai is
laying off 90
workers in
California,
the San
Francisco
Chronicle
reported. And
the company
employed many
more in
Texas."
Read more Hmmmm... Looks like a fire sale. Does this mean that getting to "80% of Driverless" is valued at less than $100m? Ouch! It is going to take deep pockets to get to "99.99% Driverless". Alain
Friday, June 21, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Lexus
Moves One Step
Closer to a
World Without
Crashes (Lexus
may have
pulled the
press
release???)
Press
Release, June
19,
"...Collisions
that result in
injury can
often be
caused by a
delay in a
driver’s
recognition of
the situation
and his or her
ability to
react
accordingly.
In a move to
help prevent
such accidents
before they
happen, the
Lexus Safety
System+ will
be a standard
feature in all
US Lexus
vehicles
starting with
the 2020 model
year. “We are
working toward
preventing
crashes before
they happen,”
said David
Christ, group
vice president
and general
manager, Lexus
Division.“
That's why we
have developed
some of the
most advanced
safety
features on
the road
today, and now
those systems
will be
standard
equipment on
every model we
sell. ..Nice!...
Designed to
help protect
drivers,
passengers and
pedestrians,
the Lexus
Safety System+
is an
integrated
suite of four
advanced
active safety
packages
anchored by
automated
pre-collision
warning and
braking. They
include:
- Pre-Collison System with Pedestrian Detection
This system is engineered to help detect a preceding vehicle or a pedestrian ... why not also a stationary fire truck, or a car stopped at a controlled intersection, or a brick wall, or...??? NotGoodEnough!... Below see Advanced Driver Assistance Systems: The ADAS Road to AV Reality - #SmartDrivingCar... in front of the Lexus under certain conditions . Should the system detect a pedestrian or a potential frontal collision, it’s designed to activate an audible and visual alert while automatically preparing Brake Assist for increased braking response... why not also begin immediately to brake and slow down ? (Hint..."not sure" is not the right answer.) If the situation is sufficient for you to alert the driver why isn't it good enough to immediately start to reduce the speed of the car. Worse case is that you added a couple of seconds to the trip. The driver can always override the brakes by pushing harder on the gas pedal if the driver insists on tailgating or is committing suicide or ???. NotGoodEnough!.... If the driver does not brake in time,... are you kidding?? You knew a crash was impending, and you waited until it was too late??? NotGoodEnough!... the system is designed to automatically begin braking before impact... and then you'll slam on the brakes??? NotGoodEnough!... and, in some cases... Not most/many cases; just some cases??? NotGoodEnough!..., can even bring the vehicle to a stop
- Lane
Departure
Alert ...OK, but not Lane Centering...
- Intelligent High Beams ... Great...
- Dynamic Radar Cruise Control
This system
uses radar and
camera
technology to
help maintain
a preset speed
and following
distance from
the vehicle
ahead. If
driving at
highway speeds
and the road
ahead clears,
the vehicle
returns to its
preset speed.
.... Great, but a couple of questions... 1. If the
system is on
and I tap the
brakes, does
the system
turn off just
the
acceleration
function
because it
understands
that I tapped
the brakes
because I felt
that I was
going too fast
so the system
should not
override my
explicit
signal.
Nice!!
However, does
it also assume
that I really
know what I'm
doing?
Consequently,
it also turns
off the brake
function even
in situations
in which I am
not applying
enough brake
forces and a
crash is
imminent?
Does it again
wait until it
is too late
and and refuse
to help me in
those critical
moments? Then
you'll slam on
the
NotGoodEnough!
(Note... my S
Anti-lock
Braking ystem
explicitly
overrides the
way that I'm
applying the
brakes and
keeps me from
doing the
wrong thing.
Thank you
ABS! What
makes the AEB
situation
different when
the system
knows better
and could
really help me
in an as
critical
situation?
2. What happens if the system is on and I'm following a car at my preset distance going 10 mph under my desired speed. The car ahead changes lanes because she sees that a parked fire truck is in our lane ahead. Once her car clears my lane ahead, does the Dynamic Radar Cruise Control system take into account the existence of the parked firetruck ahead and brings me to a smooth stop before hitting the Firetruck? Or, does the system begin to accelerate to my desired speed and simply leave it to the Pre-Collison System with Pedestrian Detection system to try to "save the day" after it is too late?........"
Read more Hmmmm... Again, very nice that these features will be standard. It is really unfortunate that they are not better. Hopefully, since the limitations that I expressed above are all software related, Lexus will be able to do over-the-air (or otherwise) updates of the software as soon as Lexus has put more effort into the "intelligence" that uses the data streams generated by their cameras and radars AlainFriday, June 14, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Hyundai
self-driving
deal points to
industry-wide
pattern
T. Lee,
June 13, "It
has been a
busy week for
Aurora, the
self-driving
startup
founded by
veterans of
the Google,
Tesla, and
Uber
self-driving
programs. On
Monday, Aurora
announced it
had forged a
partnership
with Fiat
Chrysler. On
Tuesday,
Aurora said it
was ending its
partnership
with
Volkswagen.
Now Hyundai is
deepening its
partnership
with Aurora
with an equity
investment.
It's the
latest example
of an
industry-wide
pattern: one
after another,
car companies
have made big
investments in
self-driving
startups. And
these deals
mean that
carmakers are
effectively
entering into
self-driving
alliances with
one
another....
All of the
recent deals
between car
companies and
self-driving
companies
could put
Waymo in a
difficult
position.
Waymo has been
working on
self-driving
technology
much longer
than any of
its rivals,
and the
company aimed
to introduce a
driverless
taxi service
long before
others came to
market. In
that scenario,
Waymo would
have its
choice of
automotive
partners, so
Waymo has been
keeping its
options open.
But the
reality is
that Waymo
will need help
from
automakers to
scale up
rapidly. As
more and more
automakers
commit to
Waymo's
rivals, Waymo
risks becoming
stranded—with
industry-leading sensors and software but limited capacity to integrate
the technology
into a large
number of
vehicles...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Good summary of "self-driving car"
partnerships
but, by
including
Waymo in the
mix, it is
conflating
what I
continue to
contend are
two VERY
different
markets...
Self-driving
and
Driverless.
What makes
them like oil
& vinegar
is that
self-driving
vehicles are
for the
Consumer
market and are
little
different from
conventional
cars.
Driverless
cars are for
the
Fleet/Business
market.
Self-driving
cars require a
driver in
order to
deliver any
meaningful
mobility or
value. Their
automation
stack delivers
additional
comfort,
convenience
and safety to
the auto
industry's
existing
customer
base. As such
it is a
"consumer
play" and
requires no
regulations or
public
oversight
other than
what exists
today. Any
safety issues
can be handled
through
standard
"product
liability" and
standard "NHTSA
recall"
procedures.
Its market
penetration
evolution is
like going
from manual
transmission
to automatic
transmission,
as Tesla is
demonstrating
with
AutoPilot.
From outside
the car, one
can't tell if
it has it or
doesn't. It
is a consumer
choice at time
of purchase.
Tesla
is creating
its own
"automatic
transmission"/"AutoPilot
stack". Other
OEMs are
hedging their
bets by
partnering
with
technology
provider for
their
self-driving
technology
stack. They'll
continue to
produce the
rest of the
car, as they
have done for
years, and
possibly
outsource
their "automatic transmission"
when the time
comes.
Driverless
cars are
"mobility
machines" when
managed as a
fleet
delivering
mobility to
individuals.
They are a
"business
play". It is
all about the
economic
efficiency/profitability
in delivering
mobility to
individuals.
The
fundamental
value is in
the
opportunity to
provide
consistent
reliable
affordable
mobility at
scale. The
technology
stack has
taken the
inconsistency,
unreliability
and monetary
cost of a
human driver
out of the
loop. Since
algorithms,
rather than
people, tailor
the service to
meet
individual
needs, such
systems scale
attractively.
All of this
MUST be done
safely without
a
driver/attendant,
else the
economics/affordability/scalability
completely
collapses.
From
outside the
car one can
tell that
there isn't a
driver in the
driver's
seat.
Consequently,
public
oversight at
all levels
from top to
grass roots
will need to
be comfortable
with this
thing with no
driver in it
going down
their street
and invading
their
neighborhood
and
transporting
their kids,
grandmas,
mobility
disadvantaged,
... .
Everyone is
going to
weigh-in with
perceptions
and
regulations.
Consequently,
the deployment
of the
technology is
going to need
to be
"welcomed" .
"Uber-like
swashbuckling
bravado isn't
going to cut
is.
Driverless
Mobility-as-a-Service is the market that Waymo (and GM/Cruise and
Ford/Argo)
have been
going after.
Because of its
need to be
"welcomed" (or
at least not
disdained) by
the residents
and businesses
that abut the
streets over
which these
vehicles
deliver their
mobility, the
deployment
dynamics for
Driverless is
very different
from
Self-driving.
All
Self-driving
needs is for
Madison Avenue
/ "Elon Musk"
to convince
individuals of
the comfort
and
convenience of
being able to
have the car
drive itself
some of the
time and they
are sold.
Driverless
requires
substantial
public
relations/education
of communities
to achieve
"welcoming".
A real "ground
war".
That is what
Waymo (and
GM/Cruise and
Ford/Argo)
needs to
conduct to
just get
started. Once
started Waymo
need to
continue it to
scale (Value
is achieved
only with
scale).
Finding
OEMs that will
sell Waymo
cars on which
to affix its
technology
stack will not
be the
problem. The
car is the
commodity. The
welcoming of
the technology
stack by
communities is
the
fundamental
differentiator.
Waymo is
sitting on an
order for at
least 82,000
cars from FCA
and Jaguar.
The order has
been
announced, but
not executed
because
insufficient
"ground
warfare" has
even been
waged, let
alone been
successful
(except in
Arizona).
With welcoming
environment
these 82,000
mobility
machines could
be serving 4
million person
trips per day
in communities
throughout the
country.
(Note... our
nation's
transit
systems today
(only) serve
an equivalent
number of
person trips;
although they
are longer
trips taken in
much more
densely
populated
areas. The
Waymo-served
trips would
likely be
trips that our
conventional
transit
systems can't
effectively
serve and thus
complement
conventional
transit. Some
of the trips
would replace
auto trips.
The others
would be new
trips by
persons who
can't or don't
want to drive
their own car
for whatever
reason and
whose lives
have been
substantially
disadvantaged
because their
mobility needs
aren't
effectively
served by
either the
personal car
or
conventional
mass transit.
Saturday, June 8, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="50"
height="39">
What
Truck Drivers
Think About
Autonomous
Trucking
W. MacNaughton, June 1, "We've all heard about the advent of Autonomous Trucking - but mostly from people who work in the tech industry. So this week, I've been visiting (and sleeping, eating and showering in) truck stops in Nevada, Utah and Idaho to hear what truck drivers themselves have to say about the future of the profession. ..." Read more Hmmmm... This is excellent. One thing that was missed... If done appropriately, (operative word here is appropriately, not really what has been done so far...) ... ""autonomy" could help me drive much more safely and really help me if it focused on reducing the stress or anxiety that driving causes me. It would really be nice if I could relax and think about something else at least some of the time when I drive. Much of driving is very simple... but very boring. Please help me do my job more safely. I'll then be fresh and really be able to handle the tough hard stuff. Do for me what automation does for pilots. I'm just as important." Alain
Saturday, June 1, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="50"
height="39">
Uber’s
First Earnings
Report After
I.P.O.: $1
Billion Loss
K. Conger,
May 30,
"Uber’s start
as a publicly
traded company
has gone from
bumpy to
bumpier. In
its first
earnings
report since
listing its
shares on the
stock market
this month,
the
ride-hailing
giant on
Thursday
reported its
slowest growth
in years and
steep losses
for the first
three months
of 2019..." Read
more Hmmmm... In its most basic form, the ride hailing
business has
revenue ($r)
and costs ($c)
proportional
to number of
rides (R).
Let $r = A*R
and $c = B*R.
So
Profitability
(P) { P = ($r
-$c) = (A - B)
* R } is all
about (A - B)
. We know
that at
today's
ridership,
R(now),
(A(now)
-B(now)) is
negative. We
also know that
as ridership
increases, new
drivers will
need to be
paid more (B
gets bigger),
simply because
the demand for
driver
services goes
up. We also
know that to
attract more
riders,
revenue per
ride will
necessarily go
down (A gets
smaller).
Yikes...
Ride-hailing
faces a double
whammy... as
it scales
(gets more
people to
ride) it loses
even more from
the average
rider than it
does today
plus that
bigger
negative
number gets
multiplied by
a bigger
number of
rides.
When
each unit
incurs a
loss, making
up losses by
increasing
volume is
known to not
be a viable
approach.
Increasing
volume when
unit losses
increase with
increasing
volume is really
not viable!
The only road to profitability, other than a major pivot, is to be more discriminating in who you serve... Serve fewer riders. Unfortunately, when you finally get Ridership small enough so that A-B is positive, that number gets multiplied by a smaller number of riders such that the gross amount is nowhere near sufficient to justify valuations greater than that of a lemonade stand. Uber serves about 1B trips per quarter, which means today, they loses $1/ride. To be worth $40B they need to make $1 on each of the 4B trips they serve per year. How Uber gets from a history of losing $1/ride to making $1/ride @ 4B rides/year is an open question. As is making $10/ride @ 400M rides/year? As is making $0.10/ride @ 40B rides per year? Alain
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="133"
height="21">
June
2019 Issue
M. Sena, May
22," In This
Issue:Dispatch Central
Toyota backs off IEEE WAVE in U.S. ... More details on Toyota's evolving position on V2X communication standards....
Uber: A Fool’s Gold ... Yup!
FCA and Tesla: Strange bedfellows . ... I did not know that!...
Tesla’s fifteen minutes of European fame. ... March Model 3 sales in EU of 15k. If April is greater than 5k, fame may have legs....
A Road Trip Down Memory Lane ... Read with a smile....
A Dispatcher’s Musings: Here’s looking at you, kid ... Everything has a downside. I like to tell my students that one of the things that the human brain does very well if "forget". "Optimal Learning" needs some "Optimal Forgetting" where the objective function is Personal Privacy. Sure, observe all you want to give me short-term convenience/pleasure, but erase all the data before anyone can use it to hurt me, where both the convenience/pleasure and the hurt are from my perspective, not yours!!
Saturday, May 25, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="47"
height="27">
Speed
cameras are
coming to
Philadelphia's
deadliest road
P.
Loeb, May 16,
"...Sponsor
Cherelle
Parker says
the cameras
will
photograph any
car going more
than 11 miles
per hour over
the speed limit..."
Read
more Hmmmm... I really don't understand. What is the
meaning of the
word limit
? (Hint.... "the utmost extent")
So for humans a "speed" limit is actually a "Speed
+10" limit.
That mean I
can set my
Cruise Control
to "Speed
Limit" +10 and
I'll be just
fine. Does
that also mean
that I can
code my
driverless car
"to do +10"???
If not, then
why does a
person capable
of getting a
driver's
license get to
go faster than
a person who
can't get a
driver's
license who is
relegated to
be driven by
an
autonomousTaxi
(aTaxi) that
is mandated to
drive at a
slower
speed????
(Please don't
tell me it is
because the
accuracy of
the speed
sensor is not
precise (aka
reliable
enough). May
I use that
excuse in my
aTaxi code?)
This is a
serious
question!
There needs to
be a level
regulatory
(rules of the
road/traffic
laws) playing
field
established
for aTaxis and
human drivers.
This is NOT
easy (but it
could be as
simple as:
SpeedLimit(aTaxi) = SpeedLimit (Humans) + 10
StopSign(aTaxi) = SropSign(Humans) +RollOnThrough if
no one is
around
RedLight(aTaxi) = Redlight(Humans) + 3 more cars after the yellow, except in Boston where 5 more car after the yellow... Alain
Saturday, May 18, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="126"
height="36">
Making
Smart Vehicles
to Improve the
Human
Condition
K. Pyle, May
17, "3.5
million and 5+
million deaths
per year are a
couple of the
statistics
that stood out
from the 2+
day, 3rd
annual
SmartDrivingCars
Summit at
Princeton.
There are
approximately
3.5 million
individuals in
the United
States who
never leave
their homes
and
approximately
1.9M of those
people have
disabilities,
according to
Robbie
Diamond,
President
& CEO of
SAFE. He went
on to say
that,
“Transportation
is the biggest
predictor of
inter-generational
upward
mobility.”His comments echoed the conference theme of improving mobility for all people, especially the mobility marginalized, to paraphrase Professor Alain Kornhauser. Kornhauser brought together participants from multiple disciplines and backgrounds to an event that is like no other. This year, he introduced a research element where there were a couple different opportunities to gauge the reactions of everyday people of varying abilities to various levels of autonomous vehicles...." Read more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for such an excellent summary and all of the help. Alain
Sunday, May 12, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="197"
height="16"> Self-driving
car company
Cruise raises
$1.15bn
Sunday, May 5, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="140"
height="17">
VW
Inclusive
Mobility aims
to make sure
tech takes
care of
everyone
A. Krok,
May 2, "You
can't please
all the people
all the time,
but Volkswagen
wants to make
sure that when
it moves into
the next era
of mobility,
it won't leave
any groups
behind.
Volkswagen
this week
unveiled its Inclusive Mobility Initiative,
which sees the
automaker
working
directly with
outside groups
to ensure that
its future
vehicles are
capable of
catering to
people with
disabilities..."
Read
more Hmmmm...This is fantastic and may well be in line
with the focus
we've taken
with the
upcoming 3rd Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit
10 days from
now. Our
focus is on all
people who
have been
marginalized
by the
unnecessary/non-inclusive/exclusive designs of our current forms of
mobility, .
These designs
are especially
irresponsible
when one no
longer needs a
person to
drive... to
keep the car
from crashing
while on its
way from where
people are to
where the want
to go. What
an enormous
opportunity to
be of service
to so many
that for what
ever reason
don't want or
can't perform
that task.
Yes, there are
situations in
which a
professional
is required.
At times, we
all need we
all need that
the help of a
professional.
But for all of
those
situations in
which a
professional
is not needed,
we have an
enormous
opportunity to
be so much
more inclusive
by removing
the other
unnecessary
exclusivities
that have
consciously or
unconsciously
crept into our
cars and
transit
systems. Our
mobility
systems no
longer need to
be big and
hold many
people to make
them
affordable, no
driver needs
to be paid.
They no longer
need to be
constrained to
only go
between the
few places
than many want
to go between
at only
certain
times. They
can readily
serve where
only a few,
even one, want
to go between
at whatever
time. The
skill set
needed to use
and be served
diminishes to
the skill set
needed by the
easiest to use
elevator. And
so on...
Friday, May 3, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Tesla’s
autonomy
event:
Impressive
progress with
an unrealistic
timeline
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Congestion
Pricing Plan
for NYC is
Coming!
Friday, March 29, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="155"
height="20"> 10
Lessons From
Uber's Fatal
Self-Driving
Car Crash
Hmmmm....
New Jersey is
now started.
Hooray!! AlainSunday, March 17, 2019
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""
width="116"
height="32">Automated
vehicles could
provide
mobility to
the ‘mobility
disadvantaged’
A. Kornhauser, March 13, "The following testimony was provided to the New Jersey State Assembly’s Transportation and Independent Authorities Committee on Monday, March 11....
What we need, what my ask is, that we create in New Jersey a “welcoming environment” for the research, testing and demonstration of this technology and work to focusing it on improving the mobility of the mobility disadvantaged...
While such
a
demonstration
is not
prohibited in
New Jersey, it
is not
permitted.
Consequently,
this provides
excuses and
hurdles to
bringing such
mobility to
our
communities
and tarnishes
any other
welcoming
efforts aimed
at enabling
New Jersey to
lead instead
of follow in
what may well
address the
fundamental
objective of
this
hearing." Read
more
Hmmmm....Seems
so simple. I
have found it
so incredibly
hard. Alain
Friday,
March 1, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="35"
height="38">
FORM
S-1
REGISTRATION
STATEMENT
Lyft, Inc.
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class="">Autonomous
Vehicles
Feb 25, " This
workshop
brought
together
experts in
cyber-physical
systems,
machine
learning,
transportation
engineering,
and applied
mathematics,
both from
academia and
from industry,
to help bridge
the technical
gaps and to
facilitate
exchange and
collaboration
across
disciplinary
boundaries..."
Read
more
Hmmmm....
Slides and
videos of the
presentations
are available
here.
In particular,
see..:
- Andrea Censi: "Liability, Ethics, and Culture-Aware Behavior Specification using Rulebooks" Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Monday;
- Adam Oberman:"Generalization and adversarial robustness of Regularized Deep Neural Networks " Abstract, Slides, video (via click on Schedule 11:30 Tuesday);
- Alain Kornhauser: "Market Forces and Market Potential for SmartDrivingCars (aka Autonomous Vehicles) " Slides, video, (via click on Schedule 11:15 Tuesday);
- Hani Mahmassani: "Shared Autonomous Fleet Services and Multimodal Urban Mobility: Optimization, Prediction and Dynamic Network Modeling " Abstract, video, (via click on Schedule 4:00 Thursday);
Friday, February 15, 2019
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> Facing
opposition,
Amazon scraps
New York HQ2
plans
Friday,
January 25,
2019 Thursday, November 22, 2018
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="94"
height="29"> Market
Framework and
Outlook for
Automated
Vehicle
Systems
R. Mudge, A.
Kornhauser, M.
Hardison, Nov,
2018 "The
surface
transportation
industry is in
the early
stages of a
series of
profound
changes,
stimulated by
the
development of
increasingly
sophisticated
driving safety
and automation
technologies.
Considerable
uncertainty
exists
regarding the
speed with
which these
changes will
take place and
the nature of
their impacts
on safety, the
overall demand
for travel,
vehicle sales,
and vehicle
ownership.
This report
does not
attempt to
forecast the
pace of these
changes,
instead
advancing a
list of
“trigger
points” that
might serve as
leading
indicators of
change....What might these changes mean for actuaries and the insurance industry? Since Driverless vehicles will most likely be available only to fleet operators and not the general public, their actuarial and insurance implication will differ substantially from the implications of Safe and Self technologies that will be on vehicles purchased by consumers. But, will these vehicles continue to be insured in the same way as personal vehicles are today or will this practice change in some way. For example, if the burden of
liability shifts to the technology rather than the driver, then should actuaries focus on product liability rather than personal liability? To what extent does technology rather than personal behavior or demographics become the important link to liability? " Read more Hmmmm.... This is a very good report. Listen to SmartDrivingCar Podcast 68 with Dick Mudge. (Of course, I'm biased. ) Alain
Thursday, November 1, 2018
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""> A
Green Light
for Waymo’s
Driverless
Testing in
California
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="39"
height="43"> Testimony
of Alain
Kornhauser,
Assembly
Science,
Innovation and
Technology -
Monday,
October 22,
2018 -
10:00:00 AM
[log in to unmask]"
alt=""
class=""
width="42"
height="39">
Audio
Recording of
Assembly
Science,
Innovation and
Technology -
Monday,
October 22,
2018 -
10:00:00 AM
Friday, June 15, 2018
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS
Sunday, June 3, 2018
Waymo’s
fleet of
self-driving
minivans is
about to get
100 times
bigger
Friday, May 25, 2018
PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Thursday, April 26, 2018
This startup’s CEO wants to open-source self-driving car safety testing
Saturday, March 24, 2018
Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail
Tuesday, April 17, 2017
Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto
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Cognition out
of Images for
the Purpose of
Autonomous
Driving
Sunday, December 19, 2015
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Jonas' View on
Autonomous
Cars
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is
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Alain
Kornhauser
and hosted by
the Princeton
University
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