M. Sena, August 2020, "Are we ready to be online carscribers? Online new car sales and car subscription programs, now being pursued simultaneously by car OEMs, will either lead the OEMs to endless highways paved with gold or two large dead ends. Each of these approaches to putting customers behind the wheel of a car are aimed at different pain points—real or perceived—in the purchase process. With online sales, the customer is in theory spared the visit to car dealers except. Car subscription programs go one step further. The customer is also decoupled from the dealer and in addition is, in theory, shielded from having to care about most of the responsibilities related to car ownership. Who benefits, who thinks they benefit and who loses, either in the short term or in the long term. Continue reading
Dispatch Central: Battery
Electric
Vehicle News
Continue
reading
Musings of a Dispatcher: The Way Forward: We Continue to Wander in the Desert Continue reading
Postscript on the
China Series:
In The disciples of
liberal
democracy
can be
forgiven for
believing that
China would
become one of
them if it was
invited into
the World
Trade
Organization.
It was their
belief—hope—that
more trade
with liberal
democracies
would would
make China a
libral
democracy that
drove the
decision to
open up to
China.
Although Continue
reading..."
Read
more Hmmm....
Listen to
PodCast 165 or
watch ZoomCast
165. Alain
Video
version of SmartDrivingCars
PodCast 164.... Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
S. Nellis, July 9. "Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) plans to create at least $100 million in stock awards to retain the 900-plus employees of Zoox, the self-driving car startup it offered to buy last month, and can walk away from the deal if large numbers of them turn down job offers from the technology giant....
Attempts to
wrest Zoox or
its talent
away from
Amazon started
before the two
even reached a
definitive
agreement.
After Zoox
signed an
exclusive
agreement to
negotiate with
Amazon but
before they
reached a
deal, a third
party stepped
in to offer
$1.05 billion,
according to
the deal
documents.
The offer came
from Cruise,
the
self-driving
company backed
in part by
General Motors
Co (GM.N),
Honda Motor Co
Ltd (7267.T)
and SoftBank
Group Corp
(9984.T), two
people with
knowledge of
the matter
told Reuters.
Zoox did not
respond to the
offer. Reuters
reported June
4 that the
founder of
Cruise
approached
Zoox engineers
with job
offers.
Technology
news
publication
The
Information
reported June
30 that two
senior Zoox
engineers,
James Philbin
and Marc
Wimmershoff,
joined Waymo,
Alphabet Inc’s
(GOOGL.O)
self-driving
unit. Philbin
and
Wimmershoff
did not
immediately
respond to
requests for
comment.
The
Amazon-Zoox
deal documents
describe two
lists of “key
employees.”
All on the
first list
must take
Amazon jobs
for the deal
to close, and
at least 19
from the
second list
must stay.
Amazon plans
to offer jobs
to three
schedules of
other Zoox
employees,
requiring that
90% of the
first two and
88% of the
third accept
jobs to close
the deal...."
Read
more Hmmm....
Very
interesting.
Without the
people, the IP
isn't worth
much.
Participate in
out Live
Zoom-inar
005: AmaZooks:Is Driverless home
delivery the
fastest route
to Affordable
Mobility for
the Mobility
Disadvantaged? Monday, July 20 @ 2pm New York
Time. Required
Pre-Registration Alain
Selika
Talbot, July
13, "The
political
economy of
autonomous
vehicles is
poised to
improve if not
radically
change the
discrimination
and racism
that is built
into the
nation’s
transportation
systems. From
the very start
of the U.S.
highways and
byways,
political
barons have
purposefully
and
systematically
created
barriers to
people of
color, often
preventing
them from
living and
reaping the
benefits of
the American
dream.
In Montgomery,
Alabama Rosa
Parks’ heroic
action on
December 1,
1955, refusing
to sit at the
back of the
bus spurred
the Montgomery
Bus Boycott.
At the time,
the Montgomery
ordinance
required the
front rows of
buses to be
reserved for
Whites. The
buses had
‘colored
sections’ for
Black people
in the rear of
the bus. As
with many
inner cities
today, Black
people
composed the
overwhelming
majority of
ridership at
the time....
These
scenarios are
played out in
community
after
community in
America often
limiting
access to
better homes,
education,
healthcare and
in some cases
creating food
deserts for
people of
color.
Transportation
can be a
leveler. With
access and the
ability to
reach critical
services and
resources,
citizens are
able to avail
themselves of
all that makes
America great.
Without it,
you cut off
the
opportunity
and limit
where you can
go and what
you can
achieve.
Autonomous
vehicles can
and should be
that leveler.
They have the
potential to
deliver
anybody
anywhere.
..." Read more
Hmmm....Driverless
vehicles have
the
opportunity to
level the
mobility
playing field
for the 10s of
millions of
Americans that
are and have
been mobility
disadvantaged... the physically challenged, the young, the old and
especially the
poor. By
nature, these
vehicles don't
discriminate... they can take anyone from anywhere to anywhere at
anytime and
can do it at a
very
attractive low
cost and be
priced at a
cost per
passenger mile
that can
approach
zero. The
only Caveat is
that those
that are
designing
these systems
design them
that way.
That means...
Their
Operational
Design Domain
MUST encompass
the places
where these
people live
and wish to
go. The ODD
can't be the
new form of "Redlining".
Curb space
needs to be
allocated for
use as pick up
and drop off
locations
rather than
the parking of
private
automobiles.
Employers and
businesses
need to
stop spending
money on
parking spaces
and parking
garages and,
instead,
subsidize this
form of
mobility to
make sure that
it is
extremely
affordable to
even our
poorest
citizens and
those that
offer the
service make a
reasonable
profit.
Finally, designers need to realize that their most
faithful
customers are
actually those
that have been
left behind by
the personal
automobile.
These folks
don't have a
good
alternative,
so they are
likely to be
your most
loyal
customer. Not
the
entitled car
owner who can
do just as
well without
you. Why
pamper them
with another
alternative.
Many household don't have access to even one personal
car. Many
more have
access to only
one car,
meaning only
one person in
the household
has really
good
mobility.
Everyone else
in that
household has
to be
beholding to
be chauffeured
by the exalted
driver in the
household.
Even the two
car families
tend to have
other family
members that
need to be
beholding to
the car
drivers.
There are in
fact very few
households for
which each
member of the
household has
a car
available for
them to drive
whenever they
wish to go
from where
they are to
where they
want to go.
With
Driverless
mobility
machines,
essentially
everyone in
every
household has
the
opportunity to
affordably go
from wherever
they are to
wherever they
want to go at
any time (as
long as it is
within the
system's ODD.
This is why it
is so
important that
the ODDs
encompass
many/most/"all"
mobility nerd
of the
transportation
disadvantaged.). What a great opportunity! Alain
July 22,
2020 9:00am
-> 4pm CDT,
"The COVID-19
pandemic has
had a
significant
impact on the
health care
system and the
insurance
industry. Now
that the
initial shock
has passed, it
is important
for all
organizations
and leaders to
move forward
with this new
reality. This
one-day
virtual
symposium
looks at the
impact of
COVID-19 from
a
cross-disciplinary
perspective
and its
implications
on future
projections.
Experts will
share their
insights on
lessons
learned and
what to look
for in the
coming months.
Share How
COVID-19 Has
Impacted You:
If you have a
story to tell
or a person to
honor, we will
share during
certain
portions of
the symposium.
Honor a
healthcare
hero, a loved
one lost to
COVID-19 or
anyone making
a difference
during this
pandemic.
Please send us
your
submission to
[log in to unmask]. To join the
conversation
on social
media, use the
hashtag
#SOACOVID19...."
Read
more Hmmm....
Should be very
interesting
and
informative.
Alain
R.
Schmitt, July
11, "With the
pandemic-shadowed 4th of July week in the rear-view, BTS compares
holiday travel
this year with
that of 2019.
Americans took
2.8 billion
fewer total
trips during
the 4th of
July week this
year than they
did in 2019.
That overall
drop is
supported by
similar
declines in
the number of
trips per day
throughout the
week. It is
driven by a
similar 2.8
billion drop
in the number
of local trips
(under 50
miles) as well
as the number
of trips taken
in each of
several local
trip-distance
groupings. The
number of
long-distance
trips (50 or
more miles)
edged up by
2.7 million
from 2019 to
2020. That
slight
increase was
driven by a
15.5 million
rise in the
number of
trips between
100 and 250
miles, which
was tempered
by a 13.5
million drop
in the number
of trips
greater than
500 miles. In
2019, on
average, 19.7%
of Americans
stayed home
each day
during the
holiday week;
in 2020, that
number rose to
an average of
24.8% staying
home each
day...." Read
more
Hmmm....
Very
interesting.
However, I
have a basic
question...
Are these PersonTrips
or VehicleTrips?
This may be an
important
nuance
especially for
longer trips.
Many of those
trips in 2019
may have been
taken by
airplane where
the counts are
typical PersonTrips
as compared to
highway trips
which are
typically
counted as VehicleTrips.
???? Alain
R.
Schmitt, July
10, "In which
States and
Counties are
people staying
at home? Which
ones show the
most activity?
Dive into the
map below to
see what
percentage of
the population
is staying at
home in your
state or
county. You
can also use
the Select A
Metric
drop-down to
see state or
county-level
measures for
the average
number of
daily trips
people are
taking and
more.
Map of
Activity by
State or
County...."
Read more
Hmmm...
Very
interesting.
Alain
A.
Marshall, July
13, "CARS HAVE
NOT been good
for the
environment,
to put it
lightly.
Transportation
accounts for
28 percent of
US greenhouse
gas emissions,
and light-duty
vehicles for
more than half
of those.
Someday,
self-driving
cars will
appear widely
in the US.
Would’t it be
nice if they
also helped
reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions?
Trouble is,
making an
electric car
self-driving
requires trade
offs. Electric
vehicles have
limited range,
and the first
self-driving
cars are
expected to be
deployed as
roving bands
of robotaxis,
traveling
hundreds of
miles each
day. Plus, the
sensors and
computers
onboard
self-driving
cars suck up
lots of
energy—not
great for
range, either.
New research
suggests that
the trade offs
for electric
autonomous
vehicles
aren’t as
painful as
once
thought—and
indicates that
AVs, whenever
and wherever
they show up,
could
contribute to
the green-ing
of the global
car market.
In a
paper
published in
the journal
Nature Energy
last month,
researchers
from Carnegie
Mellon
University
project the
potential
behavior of
self-driving
cars in cities
and suburbs.
They find that
certain
aspects of
autonomy do
drain car
batteries, but
smart software
and hardware
tweaks should
make fleets of
battery-powered self-driving cars very possible.
“A bunch of
commentators
used to
suggest the
first AVs
might have to
be gas
hybrids,” says
Shashank
Sripad, a PhD
candidate in
mechanical
engineering at
Carnegie
Mellon who
worked on the
paper. “But we
believe that,
if we want to
do electric
vehicles,
autonomy will
be compatible
with it.”...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Given
that there are
peaks and
valleys in
demand
throughout any
day, There is
plenty of time
to recharge
batteries.
Plus, there
are really
very few very
long trips
that exceed an
EV's range.
For those, one
could have a
few hybrid
cars available
to serve them
or instead of
waiting for
the batteries
to be
recharged, one
could easily
have a fully
charged car
waiting at
charging
facilities and
simply ask the
customers to
quickly use
the rest area
and simply
board a
waiting fully
charged car
and continue
on their long
journey.
Alain
T. Lee,
July 14,
"Tesla's stock
reached an
unprecedented
intraday high
of $1,760 on
Monday, just
as tens of
thousands of
new investors
were pouring
into the stock
using the
online
brokerage
Robinhood. Data from Robintrack shows
that the
number of
Robinhood
users holding
Tesla shares
soared from
408,000 at the
start of the
day on Monday
to 458,000 at
the day's
end—a jump of
50,000 users.
By Tuesday
morning, the
stock had
given back
some of those
gains, with
the stock
trading below
$1,500.
Robinhood announced
Monday
that it had
raised $320
million from
investors at a
valuation of
$8.6 billion.
..." Read
more Hmmmm.... All
so hard to
believe. You
can't make up
this stuff.
Alain
K.
Wiggers, July
14, "Mobileye,
Intel’s
driverless
vehicle
R&D
division,
today
announced that
German
certification
body TÜV Süd
awarded it a
recommendation
for a permit
to drive its
autonomous
vehicles on
public roads
in Germany,
including
urban and
rural areas as
well as the
Autobahn at up
to 130
kilometers
(~80 miles)
per hour in
real-world
traffic.
Mobileye —
which says
testing will
begin now in
and around
Munich before
expanding
elsewhere —
claims it’s
one of the
first non-OEMs
to receive a
driverless
vehicle test
permit from
German
regulators.
Volkswagen and
BMW, among
others, have
been testing
in German
cities,
including
Hamburg, since
mid-2019.
In partnership
with Moovit,
the
mobility-as-a-service
startup
Mobileye
acquired in
May for $900
million,
Mobileye aims
to build full
end-to-end
ride-hailing
experiences
with its
vehicles using
Moovit’s
mobility
platform and
apps. By the
end of this
year, Mobileye
says it
expects to
scale
open-road
testing in
other
countries
including
Israel,
France, and
South
Korea..... " Read
more Hmmm... There will be an attendant behind
the wheel at
all times.
Why does
Mobileye need
any
certification?
Is it to limit
it to be one
of the slowest
drivers on the
German
Autobahn ;-) Alain
J.
Koetsier, July
16, "How do
you beat
Tesla, Google,
Uber and the
entire
multi-trillion
dollar
automotive
industry with
massive brands
like Toyota,
General
Motors, and
Volkswagen to
a full
self-driving
car? Just
maybe, by
finding a way
to train your
AI systems
that is
100,000 times
cheaper.
It’s called
Deep
Teaching.
Perhaps not
surprisingly,
it works by
taking human
effort out of
the equation.
And Helm.ai
says it’s the
key to
unlocking
autonomous
driving.
Including cars
driving
themselves on
roads they’ve
never seen ...
using just one
camera.
“Our Deep
Teaching
technology
trains without
human
annotation or
simulation,”
Helm.ai CEO
Vladislav
Voroninski
told me
recently on
the TechFirst
podcast. “And
it’s on a
similar level
of
effectiveness
as supervised
learning,
which allows
us to actually
achieve a
higher levels
of accuracy as
well as
generalization
... than the
traditional
methods.”..."
Read more Hmmmm...Since there is no
substance in
the article
support the
claim, I don't
believe it.
Alain
F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ." ... Alain
F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund."
March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."
F. Fishkin, Sept 6, "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"
Press
release, June
15,
"The U.S.
Department of
Transportation
today
announced nine
companies and
eight States
that have
signed on as
the first
participants
in a new
Department
initiative to
improve the
safety and
testing
transparency
of automated
driving
systems, the
Automated
Vehicle
Transparency
and Engagement
for Safe
Testing (AV
TEST)
Initiative.
The
participating
companies are
Beep, Cruise,
Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles,
Local Motors,
Navya, Nuro,
Toyota, Uber,
and Waymo.
The States are
California,
Florida,
Maryland,
Michigan,
Ohio,
Pennsylvania,
Texas, and
Utah.
“Through this
initiative,
the Department
is creating a
formal
platform for
Federal,
State, and
local
government to
coordinate and
share
information in
a standard
way,” said
U.S.
Transportation
Secretary
Elaine L.
Chao. ...
This
initiative
aligns with
the
Department’s
leadership on
automated
driving system
vehicles,
including AV 4.0: Ensuring American
Leadership in
Automated
Vehicle
Technologies."
Read
more Hmmm...
Excellent.
This is really
good because
it is promotes
and organizes
the open
sharing of
safety
information
assoiated with
automated
driving.
This is
extremely
important
because safety
of these
systems is a
necessary
condition for
their
adoption.
Unfortunately, a few things seem to be missing from the
announcement.
R. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
M.
Sena, May 26,
"Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
has three
facets. Two of
them are
mainly of
interest to
vehicle OEMs
and their
suppliers.
They are
vehicle-centric
and
customer-centric.
Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency
notification,
logistics
tracking and
over-the-air
updating.
Customer
centric
connectivity
includes many
services that
are also
provided by
mobile apps
outside of the
vehicle, such
as music
streaming,
workshop
service
booking,
traffic
notifications
and car
sharing
applications.
Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
today is a
major
competitive
factor for the
OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
Lance
Eliot, April
28, "Several
self-driving
car luminaries
assembled
online via a
Zoom-casted
battleground
this week to
undertake a
Lincoln-Douglas
style debate
about the
future of the
Autonomous
Vehicle (AV)
self-driving
car industry
and the advent
of AI-driven
mobility.
Originally
scheduled for
one hour, the
dialogue and
fielding of
audience
questions
prompted the
superstars to
keep going,
tackling many
of the most
vexing and
unsolved
matters that
underlie the
potential
success of
self-driving
vehicles,
encompassing
both
autonomous
cars and
autonomous
trucks.
The lively
discussion was
civil and
polite,
fortunately so
in these times
of seemingly
stark
polarization
and guttural
attacks during
our
contemporary
public
discourse.
Yet, even in
the realm of
eloquent
argumentation,
at times the
gloves came
off and there
were some
fierce zingers
and moments of
rather
piercing
cut-the-air-with-a-knife
verbal
sparring..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for
the kind and
thorough
synopsis of
our 1st
Zoom-inar. We
were all
pleased by the
turnout,
interaction
and substance.
Alain
V.
Bajaj, April
22,"A main
benchmark for
the price of
oil fell
negative for
the first time
ever this
week. The
decline —
more than 300
percent in
daily trading
— raised fresh
questions
about the
damage the
coronavirus is
having on the
global
economy.
What does it
mean for oil
prices to be
negative?
A benchmark
price for a
barrel of oil
to be
delivered next
month fell to
-$37.63 on
Monday, which
means that
sellers would
have to pay
someone that
much to take
it off their
hands.
But that
historic
plunge was
exacerbated by
a quirk in how
the oil
markets work.
The negative
price
concerned only
contracts for
delivery of
barrels in May
that are
traded on
so-called
futures
markets. At
the same time
trading
happens for
May
deliveries,
people trade
on contracts
ending in
June, in July
and so on." Read
more Hmmmm... What??? I realize that
I'm often "out
of it",
but... In all
my life I have
NEVER...
thought of,
let alone
mentioned, nor
have heard
anyone else
mention the
concept of negative
oil!
Often, talked
about $150/B
oil, $250/B,
S20/B even
$7/B oil.
NEVER $0/B
oil,
negative
Oil...
NEVER,NEVER,
NEVER!!!! and
look where we
are. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
Implications:...
no one's
models
extrapolate to
that regime.
(it requires
extrapolation
because no
data exists in
this
unimaginable
region.
Listen to Pod-Cast;
Watch Zoom-Cast
Alain
R. Bishop,
Mar 24, "I met
Stefan
Seltz-Axmacher
for the first
time in
November 2015
at the Florida
Automated
Vehicles
Summit. Not
long after, we
met at the
Blue Danube
coffee shop in
Alameda, CA so
he could tell
me about his
vision for
Starsky
Robotics. When
he
energetically
described his
remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is
hard,” I said.
“The military
has struggled
with this for
years. Its
harder than it
looks.” On the
technical
side, latency
for secure
communications
is
challenging.
On the
operational
side,
re-creating
enough on-road
reality
(situational
awareness) for
a remote
driver is
difficult when
going for the
high levels of
safety needed.
Seltz-Axmacher
remained
bullish on the
approach and
at that time
went on to
found Starsky
Robotics as
one of the
earliest truck
AV startups,
later closing
a $16.5M
Series A
funding round
in March 2018,
and then
hauling
freight while
developing
both remote
and automated
driving
ability.
Initially,
Starsky’s
concept was
all about
remote driving
for first/last
mile. They
later expanded
their offering
to include
fully
automated
highway
driving on
limited
freight
corridors.
Now, Starsky
has become the
first casualty
within a
crowded truck
automation
space, and
Seltz-Axmacher
has provided
us with an
intriguing
post-mortem in
a recent
Medium post.
Most of the
media coverage
I’ve seen has
acted as echo
chambers for
Seltz-Axmacher’s
perspective.
Here I offer a
counterpoint
based on my
longtime
involvement in
truck
automation
plus
discussions
with many
others in the
truck
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)
startup space,
many of them
irate at what
they see as
unfounded
assertions
made in the
original post.
My sources
tell me that
because
Seltz-Axmacher
hasn't
experienced
their
technology nor
been briefed
on their
technical/safety
approach, he
has no basis
to make
sweeping
claims about
the entire
industry...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Listen
to PodCast 148.
or/and Watch
us on YouTube.
Alain
K. Korosec,
Mar. 17,
"Waymo said
Tuesday it is
pausing
operations of
Waymo One, a
service in the
Phoenix area
that allows
the public to
hail rides in
self-driving
vehicles with
trained human
safety
operators
behind the
wheel, in
response to
the COVID-19
pandemic.
Waymo is also
halting
testing on
public roads
in California.
However, Waymo
will keep some
operations up
and running,
notably its
truly
driverless
vehicles,
which don’t
require a
human safety
driver,
according to
an
announcement
on its website
Tuesday. These
driverless
vehicles are
used in the
Phoenix area
as part of
Waymo’s early
rider program
that lets
vetted members
of the public
hail a
ride..." Read
more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the
latest is not
so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including
the
driverless.
Poopie!!!
Alain
Kyle
Vogt, Jan 17,
"In a few
weeks the
California DMV
will release
disengagements
data from
Cruise and
other
companies who
test AVs on
public roads.
This data is
really great
for giving the
public a sense
of what’s
happening on
the roads.
Unfortunately,
it has also
been used by
the media and
others to
compare
technology
from different
AV companies
or as a proxy
for commercial
readiness.
Since it’s the
only publicly
available
metric, I
don’t really
blame them for
using it. But
it’s woefully
inadequate for
most uses
beyond those
of the DMV.
The idea that
disengagements
give a
meaningful
signal about
whether an AV
is ready for
commercial
deployment is
a myth. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST
read. As with
everything, details
matter. It is
true that
figures don't
lie, but but
it is easy to
game systems
such that
figures,
without the
underlying
details, do
lie. As Kyle
points out,
there are
important
details
associated
with
disengagements.
These need to
be well
understood for
disengagements
to be a proxy
for safety and
market
readiness. The
when, where
and associated
details of
each
disengagement
is critically
important if
the objective
is safety and
market
readiness.
What is also most important here
is the
underlying
objective of
the companies
doing the
tests and
reporting the
data. As has
happened in
our secondary
education
where students
are taught
what is in and
how to take
the SATs
rather than
just learn.
The objective
is not
learning , but
getting 800s
on the SATs so
that they can
get into
'Princeton'.
This is
perpetuated by
the
'Princetons'
of this world
that don't
look into the
details of the
student's
academic
qualities and
capabilities.
In the
academic
world, we know
these students
as 'box
checkers',
gamers of the
college
admission
process. The
gaming is
continued by
the 'banks and
med schools'
that use
simplistic GPA
(Grade Point
Average, aka
'disengagements')
cutoffs. The
'box checkers'
then take
'underwater
basket
weaving'
courses and
become grade
grubbers. It
is lazy and
irresponsible
to use
simplistic
measures as
proxies to
very complex
concepts such
as
intelligence,
creativity,
compatibility,
and all the
other details
that make a
good student,
a good
employee, a
good citizen,
a good
mobility
system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? AlainA. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSight is standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="79" height="131">
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
R.
Wile, Nov 22,
"Sen. Jeff
Brandes (R-St.
Petersburg)
had just
finished
serving in the
Army, and was
looking to
make a name
for himself in
Tallahassee as
a junior
representative.
He came across
a talk given
by the founder
of Google’s
driverless car
project.
He quickly
realized the
potential of
self-driving
cars to
transform many
aspects of
daily life.
Ever since, he
has made it
his mission to
turn Florida
into what he
calls “an
angel
investor” in
automation
policy. “We
want to have
policies in
place for this
technology to
flourish,”
Brandes said
in an
interview at
the 7th Annual
Florida
Automated
Vehicles
conference in
Miami, which
concluded
Friday.
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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