M. Sena, Sept, 2020, "Will ITS standards work fall prey to geopolitical conflicts and meddling? How many exclusive partners can Waymo manage? Will Geely Auto and Volvo Cars merge or not? Is the StarLink satellite broadband initiative going to be another win for Elon Musk? What effects are COVID-19 having on the car industry? We are not out of the woods yet with this current plague, and governments seem to be taking very different tacks as they navigate their boats through these troubled waters. ...." Read more Hmmmm.... Another Excellent Dispatcher. Be sure to listen/watch Corresponding PodCast 170 w/Michael Sena. Alain
Video
version of SmartDrivingCars
PodCast 170... Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
A. Waller, Aug. 15, "A Georgia state trooper was fired and charged with murder on Friday, one week after a 60-year-old Black man was fatally shot during a traffic stop over a broken taillight on his car, the authorities said....
“Mr. Lewis
was no threat
as a
60-year-old
man just
trying to make
it home from a
convenience
store run” to
get a grape
soda for his
wife, said
Francys
Johnson, a
lawyer
representing
Mr. Lewis’s
family.
Mr. Lewis
continued
driving, and
Mr. Thompson
eventually
used his
patrol vehicle
to force Mr.
Lewis’s car to
turn sideways,
causing him to
stop in a
ditch. Mr.
Thompson drew
his gun as he
got out and
saw Mr. Lewis
with both of
his hands on
the steering
wheel, the
report said.
It then
appeared, the
trooper said,
that Mr. Lewis
was trying to
maneuver his
vehicle toward
him, prompting
him to open
fire, the
report said.
Mr. Lewis was
pronounced
dead at the
scene, the
bureau said in
a
statement...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Why do we have highly
trained and
competent
individuals
with guns
involved in
enforcing
traffic laws
that rarely,
but way too
often,
escalate into
situations
like this?
We can either mandate technology
in cars that
will make them
adhere to all
traffic laws;
however, the
OEMs will
scream bloody
murder if we
try do that;
so...
A. Pisarski, Aug 19, "This analysis discusses a five-step approach to understanding and addressing the new challenges that preceded, and now are intensified by, the COVID-19 pandemic and economic events of this year. The way that we react to them will be crucial to the nation’s transportation capabilities in the future. The COVID-19 pandemic and the governmental responses to it have reduced overall travel activity and shifted demand to different locations and modes of travel. Demand has shifted away from any form of concentration of passengers in vehicles and terminals, or even at potential destinations of travel. There has been a major shift to relying on household vehicles for any travel demand since there is less personal exposure to others.
1. Call a moratorium on all expansion-based transportation investments—for the obvious reasons. ....
... for the obvious reasons ...
2. Focus on improving the condition of the existing system—not just restoring, but modernizing. ....
... Hopefully "modernization" is
polite term
for
"automation".
Driving a bus
might be
appropriately
challenging as
a occupation,
but sitting at
the head end
of a NJ
Transit, DC
Metro, BART or
even the LIRR,
Amtrak or CSX
intermodal
train isn't a
real engineer
job. A long
time ago we
moved on from
employing
hundreds
(thousands ??)
of RR Xing
guards. It is
time that we
move on from
these
babysitting
jobs. A train
engineer looks
at electronic
displays/signals that tells her/him what to do. Why is there an
intelligent,
creative human
in that
loop?...
3. Assess ways to determine the role and prospective impacts of Work at Home trends—which already exceeded transit in share in 2017. ...
... pre-covid transit share is
not a very
high hurdle.
Work &
Home have been
coupled at a
scale of
10-100 miles
(or km).
Covid has
demonstrated
that the
coupling can
extend to
1,000 miles
(or km) or
even more.
Houses
turnover
"every 5
years" on
average
largely due to
either
corporate
relocations or
job changes.
If corporate
relocations
diminish
and/or job
changes
necessitate
fewer
relocations,
household
movers
(Mayflower
etc.) and real
estate agents
(less
turnover) are
in
trouble....
The main attraction of living in a
city is not
needing to
commute. If
you can work
from home, why
live in a
city. The
main
attraction of
locating jobs
in a city in
not needing to
commute. The
labor pool
lives in a
city and won't
need to
commute. But
if the labor
pool can work
from home, why
locate the job
in the city?
GoldMine Sachs
will sublet
for whatever
it can get (if
it can get
anything) most
of its space
on Wall
Street. K
Street in DC
is OK because
lobbyists
still need to
be near
congressPersons
and the
Donald...
Unless
Congress can
Zoom into DC
from their
districts!
Yipes!! Why do
folks assemble
in the
Pentagon
today???
It may be that military bases may
be the only
entities
immune to
change.
Recruits need
to march
together and
cavalry
together.....
Is this really
the way we are
going to fight
future
wars...
Massive
conglomerations
of invading
humans not
practicing
social
distancing???
Really
????....
4. Focus further on shifting transportation funding to be responsive to the accessibility needs of lower-income populations. ...
... This is very important and has
been since day
one; however,
the real
funding always
goes to those
that already
have good
mobility but
are now given
multi-modal
alternatives
because
already good
mobility isn't
enough.
5. Emphasize a strong focus on private sector solutions to respond to needs in this transportation world—utilizing the disruptive technologies that can serve users’ needs rapidly. ...
... automation has the opportunity
to
substantially
reduce the
labor cost
aspect of
delivering
high-quality
mobility.
That cost
reduction is
the
fundamental
fuel that
enables high
quality
mobility to be
offered at an
affordable
price with a
greatly
diminished
need to beg
the public
sector for
operating
subsidies...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... See comments in line
above. Alain
R.
Mitchell, Aug.
17, "It seems
bizarre that
the stock
market is
doing so well
in the midst
of the worst
economy since
the Great
Depression.
There are
several
reasons,
though none
are directly
connected to
the economic
value of
companies, the
traditional
method by
which market
prices are
measured.
The Federal
Reserve
Board’s
injection of
trillions of
dollars into
the nation’s
economy is
key. More
money
circulating
means more
economic
activity than
there would be
otherwise.
Especially
notable: For
the first time
ever, the Fed
has been
buying
corporate
bonds,
including junk
bonds, helping
keep even weak
companies
afloat. The
Fed’s low
interest
rates,
meantime,
encourage
borrowing,
which usually
leads to
economic
growth. The
low rates mean
investors
chase bigger
returns, and
stocks have
been about
only
investments
yielding big
returns the
last several
years...." Read
more Hmmmm.... Seems as if for many,
revenues are
stable, if not
increasing
(tech firms)
while labor
expenses are
down (layoffs
and
surprisingly
good
productivity
on Zoom).
That makes for
bigger bottom
lines.
Moreover, the
expectation is
that Zoom
Labor
productivity
may actually
improve in the
future
indicating
that profits
will be even
higher. Alain
B.
Feigenbaum,
Aug. 12,
"People with
disabilities
use transit
seven times as
much as the
general
population.
Unfortunately,
existing
transit
service does a
poor job of
connecting
them to work.
Paratransit
vehicles often
arrive late
and without
the proper
equipment.
Riders
sometimes are
stranded for
hours at a
time. As a
result, people
with
disabilities
are far more
likely to be
underemployed
or unemployed,
despite being
1.5 times more
likely to be
highly
educated
compared to
the general
population.
This vexing
problem led
the
Massachusetts
Bay
Transportation
Authority
(MBTA) to
explore an
alternative to
traditional
paratransit.
In an effort
to increase
customer
satisfaction
and decrease
cost, the
Massachusetts
Bay
Transportation
Authority
created a
trial program
using
ride-hailing
services Uber
and Lyft. Four
percent of all
MBTA
paratransit
customers are
involved in
the trial,
which gets
high marks for
rider
satisfaction.
Uber and Lyft
receive a
customer score
of +85, while
the MBTA’s
overall score
is -11.
Unfortunately,
the trial has
been
disappointing
from a
cost-saving
perspective.
The transit
agency had
hoped for
savings of 10
percent to 20
percent over
traditional
paratransit.
In reality, at
a subsidy of
$40 per trip,
the savings
have been only
about 1
percent.... "
Read
more Hmmmm....
There wouldn't
even be a 1%
saving if
Uber/Lyft
drivers earned
a living
wage. The
only
reducible cost
is labor's
wage rate.
That gets
reduced either
by enslavement
or automation
(driverless).
Which do you
prefer? Alain
R. Poole,
Aug. 11, "In
this issue:
R. Poole,
Aug. 6, "After
weeks of
maintaining
their
neutrality,
last week many
airlines
decided to
support
airline union
calls for
another large
federal
subsidy to
maintain
existing
airline
workforces.
The $2.2
trillion
Coronavirus
Aid, Relief,
and Economic
Security Act
(CARES Act)
signed by
President
Donald Trump
included $32
billion in aid
for airlines
to prevent the
involuntary
termination of
airline
employees
until Oct. 1.
As that date
grows nearer,
the airline
unions have
stepped up
their calls
another $32
billion
airline
bailout, in
order to
extend the
airlines’
employment
freeze for six
additional
months.
Yesterday,
President
Trump said he
supports
giving more
taxpayer-funded
aid to
airlines.
Marketplace
reports: ...
...There are also very real human concerns for mid-career people losing good-paying jobs that may be hard for them to replace. ... " Read more Hmmmm.... Bailout of rich people! Not at all surprising. I guess we would be bailing out GoldMine Sachs if the demand for investments had waned. Oh, we did that in 2008. OK. Alain
N.
Sachmechi,
Aug. 14, "Only
a third of the
city's
workforce will
return to
their desks by
the end of the
year,
according to a
survey of the
city's top
employers.
Major city
landlords had
initially set
their sights
on a Labor Day
return once
the season
ended, but
current
occupancy
levels, at 8%,
are 20% lower
than expected,
according to
the report
from the
Partnership
for New York
City, a
consortium of
the city's
elite
employers.
Companies are
looking to
bring back a
little more
than a quarter
of their
employees by
the end of
this year and
have more than
half of them
in the office
by the summer
of 2021, the
survey found.
“I think the
economic
consequences
and time
required to
recover are
going to be
longer and
more serious
than people
have
realized,”
said Kathryn
Wylde, the
organization's
president and
chief
executive, but
she doesn’t
think it’s the
end of
offices. “I
think the
doomsday
reports are
inaccurate,”
she said....
Public transportation is a major deterrent for workers, the survey found, with 74% of respondents saying it was either a primary or secondary concern. More than 3 out of 4 employees rely on public transportation to get to work. " Read more Hmmmm.... in Manhattan, not anywhere else in the nation. The only thing good about taking transit to work is that you can be doing something else while you are riding. The rest of the process is nothing but aggravating and stressful. As long as the stress of working from home is less than the stress on mass transit to NYC, then folks are going to working from home.. Alain
Rotaries, traffic circles or however you know them, they’re often frustrating for American motorists. They are designed to lessen accidents, but that’s not always the effect....
The
question may
eventually
boil down to
“Do robots
like
roundabouts?”
Autonomous
cars with a
plethora of
sensors and
microprocessors
at the wheel
should have no
problem
negotiating
the trickiest
of circular
intersections,
but mix those
artificially
intelligent
vehicles in
with a fleet
of old cars
and the
results could
prove
interesting."
Read more
Hmmmm.... Robots have no problem
with
roundabouts.
The rules of
the road a
clear. Crashes
will not be
the robots'
fault. Alain
C.
Reinicke, Aug.
20, "Shares of
Tesla rose 7%
on Thursday to
close at an
all-time high
of $2,001.83
per share.
It was the
first time
that the
automaker, led
by Elon Musk,
crossed the
$2,000-per-share
threshold,
even during a
rally that's
sent shares
skyrocketing
this year. In
intraday
trading
Thursday,
Tesla surged
as much as 8%
to touch
$2,021.99 per
share before
paring some
gains.
The rally
pushed Tesla's
market
capitalization
to nearly $372
billion,
surpassing the
market value
of Walmart,
worth about
$371 billion.
Tesla earlier
in the year
became the
most valuable
automaker in
the world
after
eclipsing
Toyota's
market
value...." Read
more Hmmmm.... Wow!! Alain
M. Sivak,
Aug. 19, "...
examined the
relative
expenditures
on motor
vehicles in
the United
States from
March through
June 202...
The main
findings are
as follows:
S.
Szymkowski,
Aug 13, "A
future stretch
of road
between
Detroit and
Ann Arbor,
Michigan, will
be home to
road lanes
marked
exclusively
for
self-driving
cars in the
future.
The state and
private
partner Cavnue
announced
Thursday the
creation of a
new
public-private
duo to build
the first kind
of autonomous
car corridor
in Southeast
Michigan to
help
accelerate
testing.
Eventually,
the end goal
is to close
"long-standing
gaps" to
transportation
access in the
area.... " Read
more Hmmmm.... I don't believe it.
This is pure
Click-bait. I
sure hope no
public moneys
go into this
investment.
More for the
super rich.
The whole AV
thrust for the
past 15 years
has been
focused on
sharing
existing
infrastructure
and NOT
requiring any
special
considerations
(except a
smooth surface
and properly
painted lanes.
This smacks of
going back to
the discarded
Automated
Highway days
where the
automated car
needed an
exclusive
automated
roadway or
lane. This
concept was
DoA in the
1940s, 50s,
60s, 70s, 80s,
90s, and all
the way to the
DARPA
Challenges in
"2005" No one
will build
automated cars
for
non-existent
automated
roadways and
no one will
build
automated
roadways for
non-existent
cars. Not
even close!
Alain
A. Hawkins,
Aug. 13, "The
COVID-19
pandemic has
cratered
demand for air
travel, tens
of thousands
of people are
already out of
work, and a
recovery —
whatever that
may look like
— is expected
to take years.
But while
smaller
suppliers are
crashing and
burning, the
biggest
corporations
that operate
and
orchestrate
the air travel
industry are
surviving,
thanks to
their size and
their access
to a crucial
resource:
cash.
The major
airlines were
hit with
historic
losses, which
they detailed
over the last
month during
their
quarterly
earnings
calls.
Collectively,
the Big Three
— United,
Delta, and
American —
lost a
staggering $10
billion during
the second
quarter of
2020. JetBlue
lost $320
million,
Southwest $915
million, and
budget
carriers
Spirit and
Alaska lost
$144 million
and $214
million,
respectively.
They’ve done a
lot of the
hard work
already,
reducing their
costs by
retiring
planes early
and pausing
most of their
routes — but
they are also
prepping
layoffs and
furloughs
despite
government
programs meant
to keep those
people
employed. Of
the many
billions of
dollars they
took from the
Coronavirus
Aid, Relief,
and Economic
Security
(CARES) Act,
only a portion
was dedicated
to protecting
layoffs. That
money is
running out,
leaving the
airlines
threatening
widespread
cuts unless that
part of the
government
program is
extended...."
Read
more Hmmmm.... No comment. Alain
F. Lambert,
Aug. 19,
"Tesla CEO
Elon Musk
confirmed the
smallest
little detail
about the new
Roadster: it
will have race
car-like
one-nut
wheels. We
are kind of
starving for
information
when it comes
to Tesla’s new
Roadster.
The electric
supercar is
supposed to
come deliver
the “ultimate
smackdown” to
gasoline-powered cars by outperforming all other supercars and becoming
the new ‘halo’
car when it
comes to
performance.
Originally, it
was supposed
to come to
market this
year, but it
has been
delayed and
the timeline
to production
is now
unclear.
In the
meantime, CEO
Elon Musk
gradually
reveals more
information
about the
electric
supercar and
he has now
confirmed that
the Tesla
Roadster’s
wheels will
have just one
nut.... " Read
more Hmmmm..... had actually dreamed
about getting
a mid-engine
Corvette, but,
of course,
none are
available.
Now I may just
wait and get a
Tesla
Roadster. Can
GM do anything
sufficiently
right? Alain
F. Lambert,
Aug. 19,
"Kandi, a
Chinese
electric car
manufacturer,
is launching
its electric
cars in the
US, and it has
reduced the
price under
$10,000 with
the federal
tax credit for
the launch.
Several
Chinese
automakers are
currently
looking to
expand outside
of China, and
that’s
especially
true of
electric
vehicle
makers.
Even foreign
automakers,
like Volvo and
BMW, are now
producing
electric
vehicles in
China and
exporting them
globally. The
Chinese-made
Polestar 2 is
due later this
year. BMW is
also looking
at bringing
Chinese made
EVs to the US.
But when it
comes to
China-based
electric
automakers,
Kandi is
leading the
way to sell
first in the
US.
Last year,
Kandi
announced that
it received US
approval to
sell two
electric cars
in the
country.....
" Read
more Hmmmm.....The US government is
subsidizing
the sale of a
Chinese car in
the US?????
Does Trump
know about
this? Alain
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information…head to www.motoetf.com
F. Fishkin Aug 13, "Ghost Road.. Beyond the Driverless Car author Anthony Townsend brings a unique viewpoint to the debate on the future of mobility...and the impact of the pandemic on ride sharing. Townsend joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and the latest developments from Uber, Lyft, Tesla and more."
F. Fishkin
Aug 8, "Is
Tesla a tech
stock? Or a
fashion
product? Maniv
Mobility's
Olaf Sakkers
authored a
piece on
Medium with
that title and
he joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin
for that
plus... GM's
would be Tesla
challenger
Cadillac
Lyriq,
TuSimple,
Uber, Ford and
more."
F.
Fishkin July
29, "In the
midst of a
pandemic, what
is the future
of ride
sharing and
mobility?
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin are
joined by
Robin Chase
and Carlos
Pardo of the
New Urban
Mobility
Alliance and
the director
of the
Institute for
Transportation
Studies at U C
Davis, Daniel
Sperling to
dig into the
challenges
ahead."
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? ... "
F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ." ... Alain
F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Video version... Watch our first attempt.... Alain
A.
Hawkins, Aug.
11, "Hyundai’s
autonomous
vehicle joint
venture with
Aptiv has a
new name:
Motional. The
company, which
plans to test
fully
driverless
vehicles for
ride-hailing
services later
this year,
said the new
name is meant
to evoke the
“motion” of
transportation
as well as the
“emotion” of
the decision
to get
somewhere
safely.
The joint
venture was
first
announced in
March 2020,
when Hyundai
said it would
spend $1.6
billion to
catch up to
its rivals in
the autonomous
vehicle space.
Aptiv, a
self-driving
technology
company that
is an offshoot
of global auto
parts supplier
Delphi, owns
50 percent of
the venture.
Karl Iagnemma,
the former CEO
of
self-driving
startup
NuTonomy that
was acquired
by Delphi in
2017, is now
president and
CEO of
Motional. In
an interview,
he said the
company’s
fleet of
vehicles that
are operating
in Las Vegas,
Singapore, and
Seoul will
soon be
rebranded with
the “Motional”
brand.
“Whether we
like it or not
these days
transportation
decisions are
emotional
decisions,”
Iagnemma said.
“Choosing how
to get from A
to B safely,
that’s an
emotional
decision. So
Motional will
keep that
insight
central to
every product
we
develop.”..."
Read
more Hmmmm.... Notional should start
testing in
Trenton's
Operational
Design Domain
where there
exists real
need for
affordable
high-quality
mobility
between many
As and Bs at
any time
serving
anyone.
Alain
A.
Efrati, July
22, "In just
five years,
TuSimple has
become the
biggest and
most visible
developer of
self-driving
trucks,
raising more
cash and
putting more
robotic big
rigs on the
road than any
rival.
High-profile
customers
including UPS
have
contracted to
let TuSimple
haul their
cargo on the
highway.
Executives
have forecast
heady revenue
and predicted
that fully
automated,
driverless
trucks are in
sight.
Instead,
TuSimple has
fallen short
of
expectations,
hampered by
the same
technological
challenges
that have
afflicted
other
developers of
self-driving
vehicles. It
had predicted
several
hundred
million
dollars of
revenue by
this year, but
instead
acknowledges
revenue is
minimal,
according to
the company’s
financial
projections
reviewed by
The
Information.
And it has
fallen short
of its
timeline for
removing human
backup
drivers,
repeatedly..,"
Read
more
Hmmm....
I simply don't
understand why
they have to
be focusing on
Driverless
right from the
beginning.
There is
substantial
RoI for
Safe-driving
Trucks...
reduced
expected
liability
(~$10/truck/year);
improved
comfort,
quality of
work place,
reduced
anxiety, ...
of drivers
yielding
improved
driver
recruiting and
retention;
improved
on-time
deliveries;
... continue
to yield very
attractive
RoIs for just
for
Safe-driving
truck
technology,
aka "Level
1/2". Why
isn't tuSimple
starting with
this
technology to
build its
advanced
distribution
network????
Alain
Press
release, July
28, "For more
than 50 years,
CES® has been
the global
stage for
innovation.
And the
all-digital
CES 2021 will
continue to be
a platform to
launch
products,
engage with
global brands
and define the
future of the
tech industry.
An all-digital
CES 2021 will
allow the
entire tech
community to
safely share
ideas and
introduce the
products that
will shape our
future. You’ll
be able to
participate in
all the
awe-inspiring
moments of CES
wherever you
are in the
world. We are
designing a
unique
experience for
the tech
industry...."
Read
more Hmmm....
Wow! Thank
you CES this
is exceedingly
responsible of
you. Hope to
be back in Las
Vegas in
2022. Fred
and I will
help however
we can to make
2021 very
successful.
Alain
Company
News, July 22,
"Back in 2016,
we announced
our very first
OEM partner:
Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles
(FCA). Since
then, we’ve
worked closely
with FCA to
integrate our
Waymo Driver
into FCA
vehicles, and
together we’ve
made
self-driving
history in the
proven,
capable,
L4-ready
Chrysler
Pacifica
Hybrid
minivan,
including
launching the
first
commercial
autonomous
ride-hailing
service,
beginning to
offer fully
driverless
service to our
riders, and
driving in
dozens of
cities across
diverse
geographies
and
challenging
weather
conditions.
Now, we’re
pleased to
share that
we’ve
strengthened
our
partnership
with FCA in
several
important
ways.
FCA has
selected Waymo
as its
exclusive,
strategic
technology
partner for L4
fully
self-driving
technology
across FCA’s
full product
portfolio.
We’ve already
started to
work together
to imagine
future FCA
products for
the movement
of people and
goods operated
by the Waymo
Driver.
In addition,
Waymo will
work
exclusively
with FCA as
our preferred
partner on the
development
and testing of
L4 autonomous
light
commercial
vehicles* for
goods
movement,
including in
Waymo Via. We
will initially
target
integration of
the Waymo
Driver into
the Ram
ProMaster van,
a highly
configurable
platform that
will enable
access to a
broad range of
global
commercial
customers....
" Read
more Hmmm....
This is big!
WayFCA v
AmaZoox
(+Rivian)!
Only
challenges:
a. WayFCA is missing the Customer leg of the 3-legged stool. It is only the Zoox (+Rivian) part of AmaZooRiv. Does FedEx or UPS or USPS or WalMart or Maycy's (heaven forbid) or Sears (heaven forbid squared) or ??? make the Trinity to take on AmaZooRiv, plus
b. Is the Technology rather than
the Customer
is wagging the
WayFCA??? dog.
In any even, Affordable (Driverless) Home Delivery of Stuff may well be the Elijah for Affordable (Driverless) Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged as we debated in SmartDrivingCar Zoom-inar 004 AmaZooks. Alain
M. Sena, August 2020, "Are we ready to be online carscribers? Online new car sales and car subscription programs, now being pursued simultaneously by car OEMs, will either lead the OEMs to endless highways paved with gold or two large dead ends. Each of these approaches to putting customers behind the wheel of a car are aimed at different pain points—real or perceived—in the purchase process. With online sales, the customer is in theory spared the visit to car dealers except. Car subscription programs go one step further. The customer is also decoupled from the dealer and in addition is, in theory, shielded from having to care about most of the responsibilities related to car ownership. Who benefits, who thinks they benefit and who loses, either in the short term or in the long term. Continue reading
Dispatch Central: Battery
Electric
Vehicle News
Continue
reading
Musings of a Dispatcher: The Way Forward: We Continue to Wander in the Desert Continue reading
Postscript on the China Series: In The disciples of liberal democracy can be forgiven for believing that China would become one of them if it was invited into the World Trade Organization. It was their belief—hope—that more trade with liberal democracies would would make China a libral democracy that drove the decision to open up to China. Although Continue reading..." Read more Hmmm.... Listen to PodCast 165 or watch ZoomCast 165. AlainPress
release, June
15,
"The U.S.
Department of
Transportation
today
announced nine
companies and
eight States
that have
signed on as
the first
participants
in a new
Department
initiative to
improve the
safety and
testing
transparency
of automated
driving
systems, the
Automated
Vehicle
Transparency
and Engagement
for Safe
Testing (AV
TEST)
Initiative.
The
participating
companies are
Beep, Cruise,
Fiat Chrysler
Automobiles,
Local Motors,
Navya, Nuro,
Toyota, Uber,
and Waymo.
The States are
California,
Florida,
Maryland,
Michigan,
Ohio,
Pennsylvania,
Texas, and
Utah.
“Through this
initiative,
the Department
is creating a
formal
platform for
Federal,
State, and
local
government to
coordinate and
share
information in
a standard
way,” said
U.S.
Transportation
Secretary
Elaine L.
Chao. ...
This
initiative
aligns with
the
Department’s
leadership on
automated
driving system
vehicles,
including AV 4.0: Ensuring American
Leadership in
Automated
Vehicle
Technologies."
Read
more Hmmm...
Excellent.
This is really
good because
it is promotes
and organizes
the open
sharing of
safety
information
assoiated with
automated
driving.
This is
extremely
important
because safety
of these
systems is a
necessary
condition for
their
adoption.
Unfortunately, a few things seem to be missing from the
announcement.
R. Dale Hall, June 12, "...By June 10, 2020, 7.4 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been reported worldwide, and the count continues to climb with general agreement that the number is actually higher due to delays in full testing and reporting in many countries. Approximately 188 countries have reported at least one confirmed case and about 416,000 deaths from COVID-19.6 It is important to recognize that the number of reported confirmed cases for any disease typically lags the number of actual confirmed cases. As a result, the number of reported confirmed cases typically continues to rise after the actual number of new confirmed cases declines...." Read more Hmmm... Excellent! An enormous amount here. See especially FIg 11 and 17. These are trully non-uniform distributions. Also Table 1, Figures 21, 22, 24, 25, Table 3, ... An enormous amount to digest here. Excellent. Alain
M.
Sena, May 26,
"Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
has three
facets. Two of
them are
mainly of
interest to
vehicle OEMs
and their
suppliers.
They are
vehicle-centric
and
customer-centric.
Vehicle-centric connectivity includes functions such emergency
notification,
logistics
tracking and
over-the-air
updating.
Customer
centric
connectivity
includes many
services that
are also
provided by
mobile apps
outside of the
vehicle, such
as music
streaming,
workshop
service
booking,
traffic
notifications
and car
sharing
applications.
Two-way
vehicle
connectivity
today is a
major
competitive
factor for the
OEMs.
The third vehicle connectivity facet is principally of interest to public sector traffic management authorities. It is focused on communicating warnings to vehicles and providing guidance on which roads to use in case of traffic congestion or emergencies. The public authorities view these roadway-centric functions as their domain, and vehicle-to-infrastructure and vehicle-to-vehicle communication as the tools to accomplish the job. They are grouped together under the term V2X. This third facet is not a competitive factor for the OEMs. If it is legislated, V2X will not distinguish one OEM from another since every OEM will have to include it....
Lance
Eliot, April
28, "Several
self-driving
car luminaries
assembled
online via a
Zoom-casted
battleground
this week to
undertake a
Lincoln-Douglas
style debate
about the
future of the
Autonomous
Vehicle (AV)
self-driving
car industry
and the advent
of AI-driven
mobility.
Originally
scheduled for
one hour, the
dialogue and
fielding of
audience
questions
prompted the
superstars to
keep going,
tackling many
of the most
vexing and
unsolved
matters that
underlie the
potential
success of
self-driving
vehicles,
encompassing
both
autonomous
cars and
autonomous
trucks.
The lively
discussion was
civil and
polite,
fortunately so
in these times
of seemingly
stark
polarization
and guttural
attacks during
our
contemporary
public
discourse.
Yet, even in
the realm of
eloquent
argumentation,
at times the
gloves came
off and there
were some
fierce zingers
and moments of
rather
piercing
cut-the-air-with-a-knife
verbal
sparring..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Lance, Thank you for
the kind and
thorough
synopsis of
our 1st
Zoom-inar. We
were all
pleased by the
turnout,
interaction
and substance.
Alain
V.
Bajaj, April
22,"A main
benchmark for
the price of
oil fell
negative for
the first time
ever this
week. The
decline —
more than 300
percent in
daily trading
— raised fresh
questions
about the
damage the
coronavirus is
having on the
global
economy.
What does it
mean for oil
prices to be
negative?
A benchmark
price for a
barrel of oil
to be
delivered next
month fell to
-$37.63 on
Monday, which
means that
sellers would
have to pay
someone that
much to take
it off their
hands.
But that
historic
plunge was
exacerbated by
a quirk in how
the oil
markets work.
The negative
price
concerned only
contracts for
delivery of
barrels in May
that are
traded on
so-called
futures
markets. At
the same time
trading
happens for
May
deliveries,
people trade
on contracts
ending in
June, in July
and so on." Read
more Hmmmm... What??? I realize that
I'm often "out
of it",
but... In all
my life I have
NEVER...
thought of,
let alone
mentioned, nor
have heard
anyone else
mention the
concept of negative
oil!
Often, talked
about $150/B
oil, $250/B,
S20/B even
$7/B oil.
NEVER $0/B
oil,
negative
Oil...
NEVER,NEVER,
NEVER!!!! and
look where we
are. UNBELIEVABLE!!!
Implications:...
no one's
models
extrapolate to
that regime.
(it requires
extrapolation
because no
data exists in
this
unimaginable
region.
Listen to Pod-Cast;
Watch Zoom-Cast
Alain
R. Bishop,
Mar 24, "I met
Stefan
Seltz-Axmacher
for the first
time in
November 2015
at the Florida
Automated
Vehicles
Summit. Not
long after, we
met at the
Blue Danube
coffee shop in
Alameda, CA so
he could tell
me about his
vision for
Starsky
Robotics. When
he
energetically
described his
remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is
hard,” I said.
“The military
has struggled
with this for
years. Its
harder than it
looks.” On the
technical
side, latency
for secure
communications
is
challenging.
On the
operational
side,
re-creating
enough on-road
reality
(situational
awareness) for
a remote
driver is
difficult when
going for the
high levels of
safety needed.
Seltz-Axmacher
remained
bullish on the
approach and
at that time
went on to
found Starsky
Robotics as
one of the
earliest truck
AV startups,
later closing
a $16.5M
Series A
funding round
in March 2018,
and then
hauling
freight while
developing
both remote
and automated
driving
ability.
Initially,
Starsky’s
concept was
all about
remote driving
for first/last
mile. They
later expanded
their offering
to include
fully
automated
highway
driving on
limited
freight
corridors.
Now, Starsky
has become the
first casualty
within a
crowded truck
automation
space, and
Seltz-Axmacher
has provided
us with an
intriguing
post-mortem in
a recent
Medium post.
Most of the
media coverage
I’ve seen has
acted as echo
chambers for
Seltz-Axmacher’s
perspective.
Here I offer a
counterpoint
based on my
longtime
involvement in
truck
automation
plus
discussions
with many
others in the
truck
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)
startup space,
many of them
irate at what
they see as
unfounded
assertions
made in the
original post.
My sources
tell me that
because
Seltz-Axmacher
hasn't
experienced
their
technology nor
been briefed
on their
technical/safety
approach, he
has no basis
to make
sweeping
claims about
the entire
industry...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Listen
to PodCast 148.
or/and Watch
us on YouTube.
Alain
K. Korosec,
Mar. 17,
"Waymo said
Tuesday it is
pausing
operations of
Waymo One, a
service in the
Phoenix area
that allows
the public to
hail rides in
self-driving
vehicles with
trained human
safety
operators
behind the
wheel, in
response to
the COVID-19
pandemic.
Waymo is also
halting
testing on
public roads
in California.
However, Waymo
will keep some
operations up
and running,
notably its
truly
driverless
vehicles,
which don’t
require a
human safety
driver,
according to
an
announcement
on its website
Tuesday. These
driverless
vehicles are
used in the
Phoenix area
as part of
Waymo’s early
rider program
that lets
vetted members
of the public
hail a
ride..." Read
more Yippie!!! Unfortunately, the
latest is not
so good... Waymo has suspended all services, including
the
driverless.
Poopie!!!
Alain
Kyle
Vogt, Jan 17,
"In a few
weeks the
California DMV
will release
disengagements
data from
Cruise and
other
companies who
test AVs on
public roads.
This data is
really great
for giving the
public a sense
of what’s
happening on
the roads.
Unfortunately,
it has also
been used by
the media and
others to
compare
technology
from different
AV companies
or as a proxy
for commercial
readiness.
Since it’s the
only publicly
available
metric, I
don’t really
blame them for
using it. But
it’s woefully
inadequate for
most uses
beyond those
of the DMV.
The idea that
disengagements
give a
meaningful
signal about
whether an AV
is ready for
commercial
deployment is
a myth. ..."
Read
more Hmmmm... Amen! This is a MUST
read. As with
everything, details
matter. It is
true that
figures don't
lie, but but
it is easy to
game systems
such that
figures,
without the
underlying
details, do
lie. As Kyle
points out,
there are
important
details
associated
with
disengagements.
These need to
be well
understood for
disengagements
to be a proxy
for safety and
market
readiness. The
when, where
and associated
details of
each
disengagement
is critically
important if
the objective
is safety and
market
readiness.
What is also most important here
is the
underlying
objective of
the companies
doing the
tests and
reporting the
data. As has
happened in
our secondary
education
where students
are taught
what is in and
how to take
the SATs
rather than
just learn.
The objective
is not
learning , but
getting 800s
on the SATs so
that they can
get into
'Princeton'.
This is
perpetuated by
the
'Princetons'
of this world
that don't
look into the
details of the
student's
academic
qualities and
capabilities.
In the
academic
world, we know
these students
as 'box
checkers',
gamers of the
college
admission
process. The
gaming is
continued by
the 'banks and
med schools'
that use
simplistic GPA
(Grade Point
Average, aka
'disengagements')
cutoffs. The
'box checkers'
then take
'underwater
basket
weaving'
courses and
become grade
grubbers. It
is lazy and
irresponsible
to use
simplistic
measures as
proxies to
very complex
concepts such
as
intelligence,
creativity,
compatibility,
and all the
other details
that make a
good student,
a good
employee, a
good citizen,
a good
mobility
system.
In our case, testing is assumed to be about safety and market readiness; however, for some, it may be about trying to "make a silk purse out of a sow's ear" or "putting lipstick on the pig". It is easy to game the metric 'Disengagements' by simply testing in easy places, under easy conditions, instead of really trying to find the corner/edge cases that you don't know in places and conditions of the Operational Design Domain that you are actually going to serve and make a business out of all of this technology; rather than just trying to get good press, or flipping it to someone else or putting it on an academic self. The details would readily divulge the real objective of the company doing the testing.
I hope that Kyle, in his next post, will divulge what he, GM's lawyers and GM's board are requiring of his system for each of them to sign off and begin to operate an economically viable mobility service to the general public in some ODD. Each will demand that it be safe. The board will also demand that it be profitable. What details are they requesting that will make each comfortable signing on the bottom line? AlainA. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSight is standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="79" height="131">
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
R.
Wile, Nov 22,
"Sen. Jeff
Brandes (R-St.
Petersburg)
had just
finished
serving in the
Army, and was
looking to
make a name
for himself in
Tallahassee as
a junior
representative.
He came across
a talk given
by the founder
of Google’s
driverless car
project.
He quickly
realized the
potential of
self-driving
cars to
transform many
aspects of
daily life.
Ever since, he
has made it
his mission to
turn Florida
into what he
calls “an
angel
investor” in
automation
policy. “We
want to have
policies in
place for this
technology to
flourish,”
Brandes said
in an
interview at
the 7th Annual
Florida
Automated
Vehicles
conference in
Miami, which
concluded
Friday.
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
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