A. Hawkins, Oct 8, "...These driverless vehicles aren’t totally alone in the wilderness. Waymo has a team of remote employees who watch the real-time feeds of each vehicle’s eight cameras and can help, with the push of a button, if the software runs into a difficult spot and needs a human eye to figure out what’s going on. But Waymo insists these remote operators won’t be “joy-sticking” the cars, which are outfitted with a bevy of cameras and sensors that help it “see” its surroundings. The car will be making most of the driving decisions itself thanks to its large computer system and artificial intelligence software..." Read more Hmmmm... Andrew's take on this. Of course they'll be watching very closely. This is not a stunt. Its a very responsible roll out. Alain
T. Lee,
Oct. 8, "After
covering Waymo
for several
years, I've
learned to
take the
company's
announcements
with a grain
of salt.
In 2018, for
example, Waymo
said it would
launch a fully
driverless
commercial
service by the
end of the
year. Waymo
did release a
service called
Waymo One in
December 2018,
but it came
with a couple
of huge
asterisks:
every vehicle
had a safety
driver, and
the service
was only open
to a small
group of
people.
But today
Waymo finally
seems to be
launching the
taxi service
it promised
two years ago:
one that's
fully
driverless and
open to the
public. Waymo
told Ars that
the service
will initially
operate in a
50-square-mile
area in the
Phoenix
suburbs of
Chandler,
Tempe, and
Mesa. ..." Read
more Hmmmm.... As Timothy put it...
The challenge
is now
economics.
Alain
Video version of SmartDrivingCars PodCast 178... Alain
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiatives.
C. Schubarth, Oct. 9, "Alphabet Inc.'s Waymo self-driving unit got Tesla Inc. CEO Elon Musk's attention on Thursday after it announced plans to open its driverless robotaxis to the public for the first time in the Valley....
But Musk
thinks Waymo's
driverless
tech is
over-reliant
on operating
in
"geo-fenced"
areas that it
has fully
mapped.
He responded
to a Twitter
follower who
called Waymo’s
system
“fragile”
because of
that reliance
on maps,
saying:
"We barked up
that tree for
way too long
(sigh). Gives
a false sense
of victory
being close —
a tantalizing
local maximum
— but reality
is just too
messy &
weird. Our new
system is
capable of
driving in
locations we
never seen
even
once."..." Read
more Hmmmm...Just because you can do
something,
doesn't mean
that you
should. I
suspect that
the Waymo
system is also
capable of
driving in
locations it
has never seen
before,
meaning it
doesn't have
the HD maps.
It just
doesn't need
to . Recall
that one of
the original
motivations
for
Google's/Waymo's
efforts in
driverless
cars was Street View.
So, in a
sense, Waymo
is essentially
forced to be over-reliant
on HD maps.
It is
unfortunate
because the
hard part is
"seeing' and
"avoiding" the
objects that
aren't in HD
maps... the
transient/moving
objects in and
around your
lane ahead.
The stationary
objects
represented in
the HD maps
are relatively
"easy" to
"see' in time
to avoid
them.Their
velocity is
zero making it
"trivial" to
anticipate
where they'll
be in the
future. Not
so for the
moving
objects.
Even
though, Elon
is correct, in
my view, about
Waymo's
over-reliance
on HD maps,
what he hasn't
done is
publicly
proclaim and
accept the
responsibility
if anything
goes wrong in
the use of his
system. He
hasn't said
that he'll
replace the
fine print in
his manuals
that make the
driver
responsible
for any mishap
to state that
he'll accept
the full
responsibility
for any mishap
involving his
system. The
meat of the
Waymo
announcement
is "our
automated
system will
take you
safely and
comfortably
from A to B in
our
Operational
Design Domain
(ODD). If
anything
happens we'll
you, the
rider, can
hold us
responsible
for any
damages that
you may have
incurred".
J. Klender,
Oct. 8. "Tesla
CEO Elon Musk
stated earlier
today that the
latest build
of FSD
software would
be released
“in a few
weeks.”
Musk’s idea of
a completely
self-driving
vehicle has
been evident
for several
years.
Obtaining full
autonomy is
anything but
an easy task,
and Musk
recognizes
that other
companies have
done an
efficient job
creating
driver
assistance
features to
increase
safety.
While ARK
Invest’s Tasha
Keeney
described the
process and
development of
self-driving
vehicles in a
series of
tweets on
Thursday, Musk
stated that
Waymo, another
company with
its sights set
on
fully-autonomous
navigation, is
doing an
“impressive”
job with
developing
zero-intervention
driving
capabilities...."
Read more
Hmmmm...
Again, not
such a big
deal. What
would really
be news is:
"Tesla accepts
all liability
associated
with the use,
or mis-use, of
FSD". Alain
A. Hawkins, Oct 8, "Amazon unveiled its first all-electric delivery van on Thursday. The vehicle, built by EV startup Rivian, will come with state-of-the-art technology, like sensing equipment and an advanced driver-assist system. The e-commerce giant says it expects to have 10,000 vans on the road making deliveries “as early as 2022,” with a total fleet of 100,000 vehicles expected by 2030...."" Read more Hmmmm... How long before "ZooX" automates these? Alain
A. Hawkins,
Oct 7, "Boom
Supersonic, an
aviation
startup,
unveiled today
a full-scale
demonstrator
of a
supersonic
passenger jet
that aims to
be the
next-generation
Concorde. The
XB-1
demonstrator
won’t take
flight until
2021, but Boom
unveiled the
prototype to a
group of
aviation and
aerospace
executives at
Centennial
Airport in
Denver.
At 71 feet
long, the XB-1
is a
scaled-down
version of the
full
production
model that
Boom hopes to
have ready for
passengers by
2029. The
prototype only
has room for
the pilot,
while the
commercial-ready
version will
eventually
hold up to 44
passengers...." Read more Hmmmm... A start on a long road
back. Alain
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information…head to www.motoetf.com
F. Fishkin,
Aug 20, "Tesla
grows while
other
automakers
flounder. And
creating
standards in
an era of
mistrust. The
Dispatcher
publisher
joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin in a
thought
provoking
episode.
Plus...transportation
planning
during and
after the
pandemic...NVIDIA...and
more."
F. Fishkin Aug 13, "Ghost Road.. Beyond the Driverless Car author Anthony Townsend brings a unique viewpoint to the debate on the future of mobility...and the impact of the pandemic on ride sharing. Townsend joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and the latest developments from Uber, Lyft, Tesla and more."
F. Fishkin
Aug 8, "Is
Tesla a tech
stock? Or a
fashion
product? Maniv
Mobility's
Olaf Sakkers
authored a
piece on
Medium with
that title and
he joins
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser
& co-host
Fred Fishkin
for that
plus... GM's
would be Tesla
challenger
Cadillac
Lyriq,
TuSimple,
Uber, Ford and
more."
F.
Fishkin July
29, "In the
midst of a
pandemic, what
is the future
of ride
sharing and
mobility?
Princeton's
Alain
Kornhauser and
co-host Fred
Fishkin are
joined by
Robin Chase
and Carlos
Pardo of the
New Urban
Mobility
Alliance and
the director
of the
Institute for
Transportation
Studies at U C
Davis, Daniel
Sperling to
dig into the
challenges
ahead."
F. Fishkin, July 20, "Is Driverless home delivery the fastest route to Affordable Mobility for the Mobility Disadvantaged? ... "
F. Fishkin, July 2, "Transportation, racial injustices and changing the thinking around the future of mobility. NYU McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy & Research fellow Henry Greenidge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in an eye and mind opening episode of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Amazon, Zoox, Waymo, Tesla & more. ." ... Alain
F. Fishkin,
June 2, "But
the debate is
not really
about
technology nor
is it about
who delivers
the best value
for the money
or the most
privacy. It is
about ..."
Staff,
Oct. 2020 "On
this page you
will find the
gradings of
cars tested by
Euro NCAP on
automated
driving
technologies.
For its 2020
assessment of
Highway Assist
systems, Euro
NCAP has
developed
dedicated test
and assessment
protocols,
divided into
two main
areas:
Assistance
Competence,
based on the
balance
between Driver
Engagement and
Vehicle
Assistance,
and Safety
Backup...." Read
more Hmmmm....Look carefully at each
component of
the rating
system. NCAP
has chosen one
algorithmic
way of "adding
apples and
oranges" to
get their
rating.
Unfortunately
they don't
divulge the
secret
formula. To
me, it doesn't
seem to be
sufficiently
iweighted on
what I
consider to be
the most
important
element...
"Collision
Avoidance".
If the system
doesn't do
that well,
then why
bother being
good at
Consumer
Information
(unless that
information
says clearly
that the
system doesn't
work well".
If NCAP itself did a good job of
Consumer
Information
then it would
divulge its
algorithm and
allow the
consumer to
edit its
weights to
trade-off what
the consumer
believes is
more or less
important.
A.
Efrati, July
22, "In just
five years,
TuSimple has
become the
biggest and
most visible
developer of
self-driving
trucks,
raising more
cash and
putting more
robotic big
rigs on the
road than any
rival.
High-profile
customers
including UPS
have
contracted to
let TuSimple
haul their
cargo on the
highway.
Executives
have forecast
heady revenue
and predicted
that fully
automated,
driverless
trucks are in
sight.
Instead,
TuSimple has
fallen short
of
expectations,
hampered by
the same
technological
challenges
that have
afflicted
other
developers of
self-driving
vehicles. It
had predicted
several
hundred
million
dollars of
revenue by
this year, but
instead
acknowledges
revenue is
minimal,
according to
the company’s
financial
projections
reviewed by
The
Information.
And it has
fallen short
of its
timeline for
removing human
backup
drivers,
repeatedly..,"
Read
more
Hmmm....
I simply don't
understand why
they have to
be focusing on
Driverless
right from the
beginning.
There is
substantial
RoI for
Safe-driving
Trucks...
reduced
expected
liability
(~$10/truck/year);
improved
comfort,
quality of
work place,
reduced
anxiety, ...
of drivers
yielding
improved
driver
recruiting and
retention;
improved
on-time
deliveries;
... continue
to yield very
attractive
RoIs for just
for
Safe-driving
truck
technology,
aka "Level
1/2". Why
isn't tuSimple
starting with
this
technology to
build its
advanced
distribution
network????
Alain
R. Bishop,
Mar 24, "I met
Stefan
Seltz-Axmacher
for the first
time in
November 2015
at the Florida
Automated
Vehicles
Summit. Not
long after, we
met at the
Blue Danube
coffee shop in
Alameda, CA so
he could tell
me about his
vision for
Starsky
Robotics. When
he
energetically
described his
remote-driving-for-trucks approach, I was skeptical. “Remote driving is
hard,” I said.
“The military
has struggled
with this for
years. Its
harder than it
looks.” On the
technical
side, latency
for secure
communications
is
challenging.
On the
operational
side,
re-creating
enough on-road
reality
(situational
awareness) for
a remote
driver is
difficult when
going for the
high levels of
safety needed.
Seltz-Axmacher
remained
bullish on the
approach and
at that time
went on to
found Starsky
Robotics as
one of the
earliest truck
AV startups,
later closing
a $16.5M
Series A
funding round
in March 2018,
and then
hauling
freight while
developing
both remote
and automated
driving
ability.
Initially,
Starsky’s
concept was
all about
remote driving
for first/last
mile. They
later expanded
their offering
to include
fully
automated
highway
driving on
limited
freight
corridors.
Now, Starsky
has become the
first casualty
within a
crowded truck
automation
space, and
Seltz-Axmacher
has provided
us with an
intriguing
post-mortem in
a recent
Medium post.
Most of the
media coverage
I’ve seen has
acted as echo
chambers for
Seltz-Axmacher’s
perspective.
Here I offer a
counterpoint
based on my
longtime
involvement in
truck
automation
plus
discussions
with many
others in the
truck
Automated
Driving
Systems (ADS)
startup space,
many of them
irate at what
they see as
unfounded
assertions
made in the
original post.
My sources
tell me that
because
Seltz-Axmacher
hasn't
experienced
their
technology nor
been briefed
on their
technical/safety
approach, he
has no basis
to make
sweeping
claims about
the entire
industry...."
Read
more Hmmmm... Listen
to PodCast 148.
or/and Watch
us on YouTube.
Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan 12, Hmmmm... Self-driving cars are hot and the OEMs are responding. I'm about to buy a new Subaru Outback and EyeSight is standard. It is no longer just AutoPilot or expensive options that car salesmen don't sell. Car companies, as reflected in what is in showrooms and what was promoted at CES, have realized the comfort and convenience of Self-driving technology (cars that have a lot of the Safe-driving car features but also enable you to take your feet off the pedals and hands off the wheel at least for short periods of time. These technologies are really becoming the 'chrome and fins' that sell cars to individuals in the 2020s. The momentum is all behind that happening and there is little Washington or Trenton or Princeton Council can do about it. Hopefully part of that momentum will be to make these systems actually work well, especially the Automated Emergency Braking Systems (MUST quit assuming that all stationary objects in the lane ahead can be passed under and consequently each is disregarded. As Tesla is finding out, sometimes those objects are parked firetrucks.) and begin to put hard limits on over-speeding, tailgating and use while driver is impaired. Self-driving cars are unfortunately going to lead to substantial urban sprawl, increased VMT, increased congestion and do nothing to help the energy and pollution challenges of our addiction to the personal automobile. Only 'Waymo-style Driverless' (autonomousTaxis, (aTaxis)) tuned to entice ride-sharing can potentially stem the tide of ever more personal car ownership and ever expanding urban sprawl. Alain
A. Kornhauser, Jan. 6, Hmmmm... I'm in rehab and hope to go home on Wednesday morning. Thank you to so many of you for all the good wishes and prayers. They each helped. I'm looking to making a full recovery. Remember, if you don't feel well, get evaluated by a doctor. I was totally clueless about what hit me from out of nowhere. Alain
[log in to unmask]" class="" width="79" height="131">
autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) stop facilitating true ride-sharing to any destination within the autonomous transit system's Operational Design Domain. The first of what may well become a half million or so others. Each strategically located to be less that a 5 minute walk from essentially any of the billion or so person trip ends that are made on any typical day in the USA (outside of Manhattan (whose subway stations provide the comparable accessibility). Twenty million or so aTaxi vehicles could readily provide on-demand, share-ride mobility from these ~0.5M aTaxi stops. Provided would be essentially the same 24/7 on-demand level-of-service as we do for ourselves with our own conventional automobiles; however, this mobility would be affordably achieved using half the energy, creating half the pollution, eliminating essentially all the congestion, doubling conventional transit ridership and making such improved mobility available to those who today can't or wish not to drive a conventional automobile. This is a MAJOR 1st. Alain
Oct 16, Establishes
fully
autonomous
vehicle pilot
program A4573
Sponsors:
Zwicker (D16);
Benson (D14)
Oct 16, Establishes New
Jersey
Advanced
Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force AJR164
Sponsors:
Benson (D14);
Zwicker (D16);
Lampitt (D6)
May
24, "About
9:58 p.m., on
Sunday, March
18, 2018, an
Uber
Technologies,
Inc. test
vehicle, based
on a modified
2017 Volvo
XC90 and
operating with
a self-driving
system in
computer
control mode,
struck a
pedestrian on
northbound
Mill Avenue,
in Tempe,
Maricopa
County,
Arizona.
...The
vehicle was
factory
equipped with
several
advanced
driver
assistance
functions by
Volvo Cars,
the original
manufacturer.
The systems
included a
collision
avoidance
function with
automatic
emergency
braking, known
as City
Safety, as
well as
functions for
detecting
driver
alertness and
road sign
information.
All these
Volvo
functions are
disabled when
the test
vehicle is
operated in
computer
control..."
Read more
Hmmmm....
Uber must
believe that
its systems
are better at
avoiding
Collisions and
Automated
Emergency
Braking than
Volvo's.
At least this
gets Volvo
"off the
hook".
"...According to data obtained from the
self-driving
system, the
system first
registered
radar and
LIDAR
observations
of the
pedestrian
about 6
seconds before
impact, when
the vehicle
was traveling
at 43 mph..."
(=
63
feet/second)
So the system
started
"seeing an
obstacle when
it was 63 x 6
= 378 feet
away... more
than a
football
field,
including end
zones!
"...As
the vehicle
and pedestrian
paths
converged, the
self-driving
system
software
classified the
pedestrian as
an unknown
object, as a
vehicle, and
then as a
bicycle with
varying
expectations
of future
travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us
precisely when
it classified
this "object'
as a vehicle
and be
explicit about
the expected "future
travel
paths." Forget the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity
vector that
Uber's system
attached to
the "object",
then the
"vehicle".
Why didn't the
the Uber
system
instruct the
Volvo to begin
to slow down
(or speed up)
to avoid a
collision? If
these paths
(or velocity
vectors) were
not accurate,
then why
weren't they
accurate? Why
was the object
classified as
a
"Vehicle" ?? When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?
Why did it
change
classifications?
How often was
the
classification
of this object
done. Please
divulge the
time and the
outcome of
each
classification
of this
object. In the tests that
Uber has done,
how often has
the system
mis-classified
an object as a
"pedestrian"when the object was
actually an
overpass, or
an overhead
sign or
overhead
branches/leaves
that the car
could safely
pass under, or
was nothing at
all??
(Basically,
what are the
false alarm
characteristics
of Uber's
Self-driving
sensor/software
system as a
function of
vehicle speed
and
time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency
braking
maneuvers are
not enabled
while the
vehicle is
under computer
control, to
reduce (eradicate??) the potential
for erratic
vehicle
behavior.
..." NTSB: Please describe/define potential and erratic vehicle
behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The vehicle operator
is relied on
to intervene
and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is
maintained by
Alain
Kornhauser
and hosted by
the Princeton
University
Leave
|Re-enter