imap:<a href=[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.2&filename=hejedgabmgkdglfj.png" class="" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" width="156" height="92" border="0">

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  Tesla Says Autopilot Makes Its Cars Safer. Crash Victims Say It Kills.

Neal Boudette, July 5, " Benjamin Maldonado and his teenage son were driving back from a soccer tournament on a California freeway in August 2019 when a truck in front of them slowed. Mr. Maldonado flicked his turn signal and moved right. Within seconds, his Ford Explorer pickup was hit by a Tesla Model 3 that was traveling about 60 miles per hour on Autopilot.

A six-second video captured by the Tesla and data it recorded show that neither Autopilot — Tesla’s much-vaunted system that can steer, brake and accelerate a car on its own — nor the driver slowed the vehicle until a fraction of a second before the crash..."  Read more   Hmmmm... A few comments here:
1.  Because of the suit here, hopefully more of the data associated with this crash will be made public.  Future crashes such as  these seem to be covered by the recent NHTSA standing General Order requiring the data to be released  without need of lawyers, assuming Tesla cooperates.
2.  Neal (slightly) overstate his plot which clearly shows the Tesla began to decelerate slightly more than a full second before impact. He also doesn't mention what the video clearly shows that the Tesla was "cut-off" by the pickup truck.  More over the pickup applied its brakes as it was making the lane change (brake light came on).  This brake application may well have been the critical element that made the crash unavoidable.  AutoPilot was likely tacking the pickup from at least the 6 seconds before collision point.  Tesla must have data on the relative longitudinal speed between the pickup and the Tesla.and it must also have an expected time-to-collision which is a critical measure as to when to kick in the Automated Emergency Braking System. Once again, my main concern here is not (yet) about the performance of AutoPilot, but the performance of Tesla's Automated Emergency Braking System (AEBS).  This is a rear-end crash.  It is the responsibility of the AEBS to avert these crashes.  Seems as if the AEBS did NOT properly anticipate the pick-up's maneuver nor properly monitor time-to-collision.  My recommendation here is to improve the AEBS.
3.  Comments implying that radar would have been better at identifying the 'cut-off' are questionable.  Lane intrusion is only partial until about 3 seconds before impact. Radar does not return lateral relative-speed, only longitudinal relative-speed.  Who knows what lag exists in determining lateral speed and the accuracy of that determination.  I doubt that either are very good web based on radar.  My guess is that image processing at better than 20Hz would do best in this clear situation. 
4.  Interpretation of the turn signal can only be done with image processing (to my knowledge.) 
5.  Nothing is reported about any horn actuation (or if autoPilot even uses the horn). The brake application by the pickup may have been an impulsive response to a horn blow by the Tesla. 
6.  There seems to be no indication by the driver of the pick-up that he saw the Tesla coming. 
7.  The Tesla data likely also has its closing speed on the panel truck and thus the closing speed of the pick-up to the panel truck.  This information may help us to begin to understand the extent to which the pickup was tailgating the panel truck.
8.  To me, AutoPilot's main issue is: should it allow "passing on the right" when "passing on the right" is illegal.  The reason it is illegal is because it leads to crashes like this one,  that is an issue that should be taken up by NHTSA and NTSB.  To what extent should any of these automated driving devices engage in "illegal" driving?  My current view (subject to change) is:
    a. Up to 9 mph over is OK.
    b.  Rolling through a stop sign is OK, if it is determined that time to any likely collision is greater than 5 seconds (meaning you must be able to "see" at least 5 seconds away at speed limit +9 (or something similar)
    c.   Cross double line as long  as oncoming traffic has slowed to under 25 mph and has room to proceed by squeezing right (or something like that). 
    d.   Pass on the right as long as all pertinent vehicles in the two lanes are moving at less than 25 mph (or something like that).
Alain


[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="41" height="42">  SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222 

F. Fishkin, July 11, "Is it time for autopilot to not break the law?   Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser says yes.  And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes…shouldn’t it?  Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

[log in to unmask]" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" width="44" height="44" border="0">   The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO.   For more information: www.motoetf.com.  Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="89" height="24">  Virgin Galactic launches Richard Branson to space in 1st fully crewed flight of VSS Unity

C. Gohd, July, 11, "Early this morning (July 11), billionaire Richard Branson and three other passengers briefly went to space for the first fully crewed spaceflight of Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo spaceplane.

At 8:40 a.m. local time (10:40 a.m. EDT; 1440 GMT), the crew of Virgin Galactic's Unity 22 test flight mission took off from the company's Spaceport America facility in New Mexico and flew just above the boundary of space, where the four passengers and two pilots experienced about four minutes of weightlessness.

It was "the experience of a lifetime," Branson said during a live broadcast of the flight. Branson, designated "Astronaut 001" for the Unity 22 mission, founded the Virgin Group of companies that includes Virgin Galactic. ..."  Read more  Hmmmm... Very impressive from many points of view.  Watch video.  An Orville & Wilbert moment. Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Tesla finally begins shipping ‘Full Self-Driving’ beta version 9 after a long delay: Let the fun begin

A. Hawkins, July 10, Tesla began sending out over-the-air software updates for its long-awaited “Full Self-Driving” beta version 9, the definitely-not-autonomous-but-certainly-advanced driver assist system.

As promised by Elon Musk, the software update (2021.4.18.12) began uploading after midnight on Friday, giving thousands of Tesla owners who have purchased the FSD option access to the feature, which enables drivers to use many of Autopilot’s advanced driver-assist features on local, non-highway streets......" Read more  Hmmmm... Unfortunately, the sub-title... "Let the fun begin"  is so bad!!  FSD  should NOT be about "fun".  Maybe "comfort & convenience" but NOT "fun".  This is serious business and the Driver MUST stay completely engaged and ready to take over.  In the "1st video" at night with no traffic it didn't take long before the driver had to intervene.  It took less than 2 minutes to have the driver need to intervene to not run over a pedestrian in a cross walk.  " ... definitely-not-autonomous ... "  End of story!!! Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  WELCOME TO SIMULATION CITY, THE VIRTUAL WORLD WHERE WAYMO TESTS ITS AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

A. Hawkins, July 6, light gray cube with a thin blue top glides down a darkened highway, beset on all sides by dozens of green cubes. The green cubes bounce between lanes in an attempt to pass the gray cube, but the gray cube maintains a steady speed as the blackened landscape slips past into the artificial night.

This is Simulation City, the virtual world where Waymo, an offshoot of Google, tests its autonomous vehicles in preparation for real-world experiences. The gray cube with the blue top represents one of the company’s autonomous semi-trailer trucks, while the green cubes are all the other vehicles on the artificial highway.

Waymo is unique among autonomous vehicle operators in that it has not one but two simulation programs it uses to train its vehicles. The first is CarCraft, which has been in use since at least 2017, and in which Waymo says it has driven over 5 billion miles. Simulation City is the latest virtual world in which the company trains, tests, and validates its “Waymo driver” software in order to ensure its vehicles are better prepared to meet all of the challenges of the open road. Waymo is sharing details about Simulation City for the first time exclusively with The Verge......" Read more  Hmmmm...Interesting.  See video. Seems to me to be more Simulation Freeway rather than Simulation City. 15 Billion simulated miles seems good; however, if most of those are on Freeways, not so much. (Example: The simulation shown in the article isn't worth running!  However, if the simulations are mostly in the "Trentons" of this world, then I'm impressed.) Alain 

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Tesla finally releases Full Self-Driving Beta v9: here’s what it looks like

F. Lambert, July 10, "...." Read more  Hmmmm...  Read Lambert's take and his "1st video"   Much the same as above... This is NOT "Full" anything except "snake oil". 

The lane markings are maybe "too good".  They should be extremely good bracketing your lane, the "Blue line" ( where Tesla intends to take you) and the lanes ahead where the blue line intends to take you.  Not so much on the lanes next to the blue line lanes.  Cross walks and stop lines should also be clear.as well as any lettering that is painted in the lanes (That lettering has been put there to make sure we see it when we are driving.)  It is important that Tesla confirms that it sees it too.

Why double yellow lines are not drawn as double yellow lines is disconcerting.  It suggests that Tesla designers don't appreciate the vast amount of thinking and hard work that has gone into the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) (And, of course,  Tesla should incorporate any local variants.)

The purpose of the display is visual information to the alert driver to assure them that the snake oil really understands what's important about what the Tesla is going to encounter in the next few seconds.  The intersection image in this article is very bad at doing that. It is mostly eye candy and not what's really important ahead.  The light is red (It should be bigger).  The Tesla must be making a right-turn-on-red (It is in the crosswalk going 25mph (certainly not slow ).  No iew is presented showing that the "coast is clear".  Really??  It a camera looking that way.  What has it interpreted about what that camera seeing?  Does it only display what it sees ahead when it is backing up in reverse?   It doesn't show a cross walk in the lane that it is entering.  I bet there is one there.  oesn't it see it?  Why is the blue line so short? Does it not know what lane it is intending to go follow?  Why all the superfluous other lanes?    I could go on but this barely earns a P (Pass) in grade-inflated "Covid-grading".  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="47" height="25">  EU fines BMW, VW $1B for running emissions cartel since the 90s

R. Bellan, "As environmental issues really came of age in the 1990s, certain German automakers were meeting in secret groups to make sure their cars would continue to industriously contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. According to the European Union, Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, BMW and Mercedes-Benz parent company Daimler have been illegally colluding to restrict competition in emission cleaning for new diesel passenger cars, essentially slowing the deployment of cleaner emissions tech. On Thursday, the EU issued fines of $1 billion (€875 million) to Volkswagen and BMW for their involvement in the emissions cartel.

“The five car manufacturers Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche possessed the technology to reduce harmful emissions beyond what was legally required under EU emission standards,” said executive VP of the EU Commission Margrethe Vestager in a statement. “But they avoided to compete on using this technology’s full potential to clean better than what is required by law. So today’s decision is about how legitimate technical cooperation went wrong. And we do not tolerate it when companies collude. It is illegal under EU Antitrust rules. Competition and innovation on managing car pollution are essential for Europe to meet our ambitious Green Deal objectives. And this decision shows that we will not hesitate to take action against all forms of cartel conduct putting in jeopardy this goal.”... " Read more  Hmmmm...So very bad!! Shame on them!.  We can't do this kind of thing with SmartDrivingCars.  Over-hyping their capabilities comes close. We need to stop that. Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="156" height="26">  Tesla Model 3 formally becomes Britain’s best-selling car, period

S. Alvarez, July 2,"The Tesla Model Y may be stealing some of the Model 3’s luster in the United States, but the all-electric sedan is still a force to be reckoned with in Europe. This became particularly evident in Britain, where the Model 3 became the country’s best-selling car in June, EV or otherwise.

The Model 3’s stellar performance in Britain’s auto market was revealed by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) earlier this week. The SMMT stated that Tesla sold 5,468 Model 3s in June 2021, allowing it to top the country’s list of best-selling cars. The Model 3 also outsold its nearest rival, the internal combustion-powered Volkswagen Golf, by over 800 units. ... " Read more  Hmmmm... Congratulations!   Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Hyundai completes acquisition of Boston Dynamics

S. Crowe, June 21, "t’s officially official. Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai) announced this morning it completed its acquisition of a controlling stake in Boston Dynamics. Hyundai now owns an 80% stake in Boston Dynamics, while SoftBank owns the remaining 20% through one of its affiliates.

The deal was announced in December 2020. Hyundai paid about $880 million to acquire the controlling stake from Softbank, valuing Boston Dynamics at $1.1 billion...."  Read more  Hmmmm... Given how much AV companies think that they are worth, $1.1B for Boston Dynamics seems very cheap.  By the way... no National  Security issues associated with this transaction???   See video.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  The Wrong Way to Pay for Infrastructure

T Gallen & C. Winston, July 7, "The politics of converting a bipartisan agreement between the White House and centrist senators on a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package into legislation will occupy center stage during the coming months. However, the important economic effects of this package should not be ignored. If passed in its current form, the increased government spending in the legislation may raise U.S. gross national product. But the package will hurt the economy by initiating a costly and lengthy transition to build new taxpayer-funded infrastructure.

Those costs could be reduced, and additional benefits could be realized, if policymakers set efficient user prices to make much better use of the infrastructure we’ve already built. Efficient user prices simultaneously raise a sustainable stream of revenue for expenditures, enable policymakers to reduce expenditures by encouraging users to reduce the costs they impose on other users, and benefit the economy by improving infrastructure performance, such as by reducing congestion and travel delays. The benefits associated with faster and more reliable travel times are generally not included in GNP calculations....

Efficient congestion pricing for cars and trucks and efficient pavement and bridge wear pricing for trucks could reduce the nearly $200 billion in federal and state spending on road infrastructure by as much as one-third, or more than $60 billion. Congestion pricing makes it unnecessary to build additional expensive highway lanes and new roads to accommodate peak-period vehicle traffic, and, as noted, efficient truck pricing reduces maintenance expenditures on roads and bridges. In addition, travelers and shippers benefit from faster and more reliable trips and from smoother pavement that reduces vehicle repair costs."  Read more  Hmmmm... All back to Wm. Vickery who earned a Nobel for it.  By the way, it should be called "Value Pricing" (It is all about adding "Value" to those involved,  Plus it sounds positiv instead of "Congestion Pricing" (Sounds so negative).  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="31" height="34">  Transportation capital and its effects on the U.S. economy: A general
equilibrium approach

T Gallen & C. Winston, July 2021, "We analyze the effect of the US transportation system on economic activity by building a quantitative dynamic general equilibrium model with a taxpayer-funded transportation capital stock. We highlight stark differences between the positive welfare effects of additional infrastructure spending in the long run, and its potentially negative effects when we account for the large transition (time and delay) costs to build. We also quantify large differences between the effects of additional infrastructure spending and efficient transportation policies, such as congestion pricing and eliminating laws that artificially inflate input prices, concluding that taxpayer-funded transportation improvements that increase GDP significantly may produce smaller welfare gains than efficient policies that increase GDP modestly..."  Read more  Hmmmm... Details in support of the above.  Alain

 [log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Elon Musk just now realizing that self-driving cars are a ‘hard problem’

A. Hawkins, July 10, "Tesla CEO Elon Musk is finally admitting that he underestimated how difficult it is to develop a safe and reliable self-driving car. To which the entire engineering community rose up as one to say, “No duh.”

Or at least that’s how it should have happened in a just world. Instead, all the Tesla sycophants and ass-kissers on Twitter told Musk to keep up the good work, that they believed in him, and encouraged him to hurry up and roll out the latest version of his “Full Self-Driving” software that, it’s worth pointing out, does not enable a Tesla vehicle to drive itself without input from the driver......" Read more  Hmmmm... OK, he might have moved a couple of degrees, but he needs to do a complete 180, a Full Monty. Alain

More On....

Re-see:  [log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020

H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020.  "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines"  . See slides,  See video Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant.  Alain

imap:<a href=[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.5&filename=lmjdiniodjkflpia.png" class="" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" width="38" height="42" border="0">   4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit  It is over!!!  Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.  

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="126" height="36">  Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)

K. Pyle, April 18, "“It’s time to hit the start button,” is Fred Fishkin’s succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times’ Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen – Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to “the Trentons of the World.”

Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020.  Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....." Read more  Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session.  Thank you for the summary, Ken!  Alain

Kornhauser & He, April 2021 "Making it Happen:  A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"
Orf467F20_FinalReport "Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System"

 C'mon Man!  (These folks didn't get/read the memo)

Sunday Supplement

Half-Baked

Click-Bait

Calendar of Upcoming Events

The 2021 TRB Annual

Automated Road Transportation Symposium

Virtual on July 12-15, 2021


imap:<a href=[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.5&filename=lmjdiniodjkflpia.png" class="" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" width="46" height="52" border="0"> 
5th Annual Princeton  SmartDrivingCar Summit
Fall 2021
Live in Person
Tentaively: November 2 (evening) -> 4, 2021

 [log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="177" height="68" border="0">
K. Lockean's AV Research Group at U of Texas

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="22" height="22">  and  [log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="56" height="22">   The SYMPOSIUM ON THE FUTURE NETWORKED CAR 2021 VIRTUAL EVENT

 R. Shields, 22 - 25 March, "Recordings from the conference:
Read more  Hmmmm...  Russ, thank you for sharing!  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="62" height="63">

These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com  

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221    w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox

F. Fishkin, July 1, "With Zoox…the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.   What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety?   What is the company’s vision for future mobility and transportation.    Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220    w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times

F. Fishkin, July 1, "Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race.    That's a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill...who joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that...plus Tesla...autonomous mobility and more.   John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 219, Zoom-Cast Episode 219    w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, June 29 , "Why couldn't a smart driving car prevent Alain's crash with a deer?   How important is exact location for highly automated driving?   And NHTSA wants reports on all automated vehicle system crashes.  The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 218, Zoom-Cast Episode 218    w/Xinfeng Le, Waymo Product Manager

F. Fishkin, June 10 , "Have questions about Waymo’s partnership with JB Hunt to test autonomous trucks in Texas?  So do we…and Waymo’s Product Manager, Xinfeng Le joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to provide answers.   Plus.. Waymo raises 2 and a half billion dollars, MacKenzie Scott gives away billions, start-up Waabi comes out of stealth, Argo AI plans an IPO and more. "

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 217, Zoom-Cast Episode 217    w/Christorpher Mims, Columnist, Wall Street Journal

F. Fishkin, June 7 , "Are self-driving cars still decades ahead?  Wall Street Jopurnal columnist and author Christopher Mims joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the progress and roadblocks.  Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, the dramatic rise in road deaths during Covid and more. "

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 216, Zoom-Cast Episode 216    w/Michael Sena, editor The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, May 28 , "The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming Into Focus.  That's on top in the June edition of The Dispatcher.   From Sweden, publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus better batteries, May Mobility, Tesla and more. 

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 215, Zoom-Cast Episode 215    w/Cade Metz, Correspondent, NY Times & Ken Pyle, editor, Viodi.com

F. Fishkin, May 27 , "The Costly Pursuit of Self Driving Cars Continues On and On and On.  That's the headline of a NY Times story this week.  The reporter, Cade Metz, also the author of a new book on artificial intelligence, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Ken Pyle of Viodi View.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 214, Zoom-Cast Episode 214 

F. Fishkin, May 23 , "An interview with the chief engineer behind Ford's F150 Lightning EV truck...Waymo shares rider stories and the AFL-CIO tells Congress autonomous vehicles should be required to have human operators. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more." 

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213  w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy

F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China.  What will it take to succeed?  Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.  Plus the latest on #AutoX,  #Tesla,  #GM, #TuSimple and more.   Remember to subscribe!   And check out this SAFE panel discussion too.  "..

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 213, Zoom-Cast Episode 213  w/Robbie Diamond; Founder, Securing America's Future Energy

F. Fishkin, May 14 , "The autonomous mobility competition with China.  What will it take to succeed?  Securing America's Future Energy founder Robbie Diamond dives in with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.  Plus the latest on #AutoX,  #Tesla,  #GM, #TuSimple and more.   Remember to subscribe!   And check out this SAFE panel discussion too.. https://youtu.be/Z6NBRrtTDnI  "

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 212, Zoom-Cast Episode 212  w/Ken Pyle

F. Fishkin, May 8 , "Where does Waymo go from here?   Is GM really going to market personal autonomous vehicles?   Viodi View managing editor Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at those issues plus Volkswagen, Tesla, Argo and more.

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 211, Zoom-Cast Episode 211  w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, May 1 , "There's plenty of combustion around the issue of banning internal combustion engines (ICE). Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for a look at what makes sense...and what doesn't. Plus #Tesla, #Toyota, #Volkswagen, #Baidu and progress in Florida. ..."

  SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 210, Zoom-Cast Episode 210  w/Ken Pyle & Louis Aaron'23

F. Fishkin, April 26 , "Passengers at the Las Vegas Convention Center are about to get their first taste of the new underground mobility service from #Elon​ Musk's The Boring Company.    Princeton student Louis Aaron has been working there and he joins Viodi View Managing Editor Ken Pyle, Princeton's Alain .."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 209, Zoom-Cast Episode 209  w/Clifford Winston, Brookings Inst.

F. Fishkin, April , "The Texas #Tesla crash that killed two continues to make headlines. The impact on the electric and automated vehicle industries? From the Brookings Institution, senior fellow Clifford Winston joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at what the real focus should be on.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 208, Zoom-Cast Episode 208  w/Prof. Stephen Still, U. of Buffalo

F. Fishkin, April 18, "What does it take to bring about mobility for all in the real world? With help from the federal DOT and a team at the University of Buffalo...some big steps are being taken there. Professor Stephen Still joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that...plus, Tesla, Uber, Cruise and more on Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 207, Zoom-Cast Episode 207  w/Selika Josiah Talbott

F. Fishkin, April 10 , "When a driverless vehicle crashes...what should passengers, other vehicle owners, law enforcement and first responders do? American University Professor Selika Josiah Talbott says the time for planning is now. She joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Apple and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 206, Zoom-Cast Episode 206  w/Stan Young, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

F. Fishkin, April 2, "When it comes to future mobility, what will fuel the vehicles?   How can the shortcomings of electric vehicles be overcome?   Stanley Young, Mobility Systems team lead for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin..."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 205, Zoom-Cast Episode 205  w/Michael Sena; Editor The Dispatcher.  President, MLSena Consulting

F. Fishkin, March 26, "Every driverless car should take the same tests that we take..and have the same responsibilities.   So says Michael L. Sena in the latest edition of The Dispatcher.  He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest from Tesla and more...on Episode 205 of Smart Driving Cars..."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 204, Zoom-Cast Episode 204  w/Andrew Rose, President, OnStar Insurance Services  

F. Fishkin, March 15, ".With GM aiming to upend the car insurance industry, the President of the automaker's new OnStar Insurance Services, Andrew Rose joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What advantages will OnStar insurance bring to the table...and a look at the future of auto insurance.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 203, Zoom-Cast Episode 203   AV 101: A. Kornhauser

F. Fishkin, March 13, ".GM's move to transform auto insurance through OnStar Insurance:   Is it a win, win for all?      Is adaptive cruise control prompting some drivers to speed?     And what does Tesla really mean by "full self driving"?   Just some of the questions tackled  in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 202, Zoom-Cast Episode 202 President & CEO, RoadDB

F. Fishkin, March 3, "When will we be able to purchase cars that can largely drive themselves?  It may not be long...but don't expect to vacate the driver's seat.  That's the view of entrepreneur, tech pioneer and RoadDB CEO Russ Shields.   He takes an in depth look at where we are and where we're headed with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 201, Zoom-Cast Episode 201 w/Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Feb. 26, "Smarter cars need smarter assembly...and location matters.   The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at that, politics, climate and carmakers...plus Tesla, Velodyne, Foxconn and more.."

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 200, Zoom-Cast Episode 200 w/Edwin Olsen, CEO, May Mobility

F. Fishkin, Feb. 22, "How May Mobility is building confidence in autonomous transportation and creating a road map for growth through the pandemic and beyond.   CEO and co-founder Edwin Olson joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more."

Recent Highlights of:

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Friday, July 2, 2021

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="174" height="24">  Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race

J. Thornhill,  June 24,  "Brimming with epic successes and spectacular failures, the early history of the motor car industry offers clues about its future, too. As so often during technological revolutions, initial bursts of fast and furious experimentation by wild-eyed pioneers are followed by waves of industry consolidation by more sober corporate types.

So it was in the US from the 1890s, when scores of obsessive entrepreneurs launched the modern auto industry. Over the next few decades they founded hundreds of companies manufacturing thousands of different models. In the words of one historian, these dedicated enthusiasts competed in a “drastically Darwinian” world and seemed to prefer “to go broke making automobiles than get rich doing anything else”, a tune which resonates again today.

But the development of capital-intensive mass manufacturing methods, the Great Depression and the second world war thinned out the competition. By 1950, the industry was dominated by just three giant corporations: General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, which between them accounted for about three-quarters of global production.

Today, the car industry is opening up once again to new entrants amid another technological convulsion as electric and connected vehicles — and maybe eventually autonomous cars — replace combustion engine motors driven by humans. As this revolution unfolds, we are seeing another burst of creative competition as entrepreneurial start-ups and tech companies flood into the market. ...

The industry’s dream is to create an attractive and reliable $25,000 electric car that overcomes range anxiety. As Alain Kornhauser, a professor at Princeton University, says, the winners will be those who can build cars that appeal to everyday drivers as well as the “greasers and truckers”. “It’s all about the sociology, not the technology,” he adds.

In other words, it will be, as it has always been throughout history, the customer who decides."  Read more   Hmmmm... Same for Driverless AVs.  Alain

Monday, June 28, 2021

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="133" height="21">  How Important is Exact Localization for HAD?

M. Sena,  July/Aug. '21, "In this issue of The Dispatcher for July and August, I have taken up a subject in the lead article that has been on my list for quite some time. It is of how cars that drive themselves keep themselves on the road while they make their journey to their destination. It turns out that there is a very good reason why Teslas crash and Waymo is running around only in Chandler, Arizona after people who didn’t know better promised that there would be completely driverless cars on all roads a decade ago: localization of a moving vehicle is very, very hard, even for a human.

I encourage you to read Musings this month. It’s about making the journey to a world without climate change protests, a world where they either won’t be necessary or allowed. On most journeys, we have to cross bridges. Sometimes we have to make them ourselves. Think of the article as the first bridge to cross toward a better understanding of the climate change journey.

Dispatch Central contains, as usual, something for everyone. Insurance is addressed in the two main articles. In Bits and Pieces I have added my thoughts on recent events.

This is a double issue, in part because we are going to try to do more this summer than we could do last. But it’s also because I need some extra time to work on a follow-up to the Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit with Professor Alain Kornhauser. There was a concrete proposal put forward by Professor Kornhauser during the last session, and many of us who took part in the Summit have committed to try to work on implementing that proposal. Read more  Hmmmm... .   Once again an outstanding The Dispatcher.  I happen to have a diffent fundamental view on"exact localization"  than Michael, many and possibly even everyone else...  As usual, I'll take a very self-centered view...  I've lived my whole life without knowing (or caring to know) my "exact location".  I've been satisfied to know: "sort of... where am I?" but exact...where am I? ... not so much.  What  troubles me about the "exact where am I" is that this exactness is in some coordinate system.  Where is the origin of that coordinate system and is moving?  Oh, it's the "center" of the earth??  Or some "reference point".  So "exact" is actually, "exact relative to some reference point.  Little seems to ever be said about the "exactness" of the reference point, but that may actually be some saving grace about "exact".. it is "exact" relative to some reference point.

I see..  If the reference point is the center of the Universe, then I'd better be really-really precise; else, small small changes mean big-big differences. If the reference is the center of the earth, then I may just need to be really precise; else, small changes  mean big differences.  However, if the reference point is my nose and I'm trying to stay between two white lines and not hit anything, then the precision to which I need to know where things are may not need to be very precise as long as I have a little bit of leeway and still stay between the lines and leave enough room around the various objects to not hit them. 

OK, safe driving requires only knowing where I am relative to objects around me to a moderate level of precision.  I can do it in two ways... take the difference between two values: location of object and my location. The farther away the reference point, the more precise they will need to be if precision of the difference is to be maintained.  Consequently, if the measurements are relative to my nose, the need for about as small as it can get. 

Moreover, any precision data base lacks some "most" important values.. 1.  a precise value for my location and 2. a precise value for anything around me that moves (meaning it wasn't at its current location when the HD database was assembled).  Required is the ability in real time to locate and track objects relative to me (my nose, the hood ornament of my car, ..) with only some precision These objects and their location aren't included in these precise/HD databases.  What is needed is a very reliable means of identifying objects and determining their position and velocity with little latency. This is absolutely necessary;uyr;y necessary for the moving objects, might as well do it also for the stationary objects.  😁 Alain

Please don't suggest that one needs an HD map database in order to run their SLAM (Simultaneous Localization And Mapping)  algorithm. That algorithm needs as input the relative position (sensor observations) of objects . The capability to determine those inputs is all that is needed to do collision avoidance, so don't even bother going through the SLAM computation and certainly don't pay for a reference data set.


[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="156" height="24">  Are self-driving cars safe? Highway regulator orders industry to cough up the data

R. Mitchell, June 29, "After years of inaction, the federal government will begin collecting crash data on automated vehicles.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration on Tuesday ordered dozens of car, truck and technology companies to inform the agency of a serious crash within a day of learning about it, with a more complete data report due after 10 days.

The order will enable NHTSA to “collect information necessary for the agency to play its role in keeping Americans safe on the roadways, even as the technology deployed on the nation’s roads continues to evolve,” the agency said.

The order applies to highly automated vehicles, including robotic cars that don’t require a human driver, as well as partially automated systems such as Tesla’s Autopilot and General Motors’ Super Cruise with advanced cruise control and automatic steering.

It immediately affects the partially automated so-called Level 2 systems increasingly common on new vehicles from most major manufacturers. The number of fully robotic cars and trucks now deployed on public roads is tiny, but the market is expected to grow dramatically in coming years.

Manufacturers tout the safety and convenience of automated vehicles, but scant useful data have been collected to demonstrate how safe they are.

“This is very important. It’s fantastic. And it’s about time,” said Alain Kornhauser, who heads the automated vehicle engineering program at Princeton University. “Safety should not be a competition. It’s a cooperation.”...

“Nobody should push back on this,” Princeton’s Kornhauser said. “We don’t know what we don’t know, we don’t know what works and doesn’t work, and this allows us to begin to know that.”..."  Read more  Hmmmm... I couldn't have said it better myself. 😁 Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Self-Driving Cars Could Be Decades Away, No Matter What Elon Musk Said

C. Mims, June 5, "..." Read more  Hmmmm... Not to be defensive, but I will be...

"In 2015, Elon Musk said self-driving cars that could drive “anywhere” would be here within two or three years."  ... According to my definition, from day-one (>9 years ago), of my 3 (very) different types of SmartDrivingCars:

  • Safe-driving Cars (Automation of Collision Avoidance on cars that we drive all the time.  Societal benefit is improved Safety),
  • Self-Driving Cars (Automation of Steering and Braking functions some of the time, in some places, but always requiring driver supervision. Societal benefit is Comfort & Convenience (and NOT any substantive Safety improvements), and
  • Driverless Cars able to go from some origins to some destinations at some times without a driver or attendant on board.  Societal benefit is delivering affordable high-quality mobility for almost anyone (and some/many things), from those origin-destination-time combinations.  (period!  Again, safety is a floor, not a substantive value proposition.)
Elon delivers, every day, "self-driving Tesla" with his autoPilot and FSD features.  They deliver very good "Comfort & Convenience" to Tesla owners as long as the driver continues to do their part... always supervise the Tesla's automation.  Cadillac also does it with its SuperCruise, Subaru with its EyeSight,  Mercedes with its 997 package, and ...

Automakers, Mad Men and modern day commercials seem to make it a habit to oversell and over promise.  I admit, Elon may well be at the asymptotic limit of that distribution, but everyone knows that he's way out there.   We consider him entertainment, just as we consider all the money we loose on Fan Duel and in Vegas to be an entertainment expense.  Caveat emptor

In 2016, Lyft CEO John Zimmer predicted they would “all but end” car ownership by 2025.

...  Hopefully by then, that thought will be in at least some minds.  Putting some blemish on what the  Mad Men created as an absolute human desire would be a substantial achievement....  

In 2018, Waymo CEO John Krafcik warned autonomous robocars would take longer than expected.

...  Nothing wrong here... 

In 2021, some experts aren’t sure when, if ever, individuals will be able to purchase steering-wheel-free cars that drive themselves off the lot...." 

...  From the beginning and continue today I argue that there is no market in the personal ownership of Driverless Cars.  Why own it???  I can't even drive it!!!  Just to sit in my driveway???  I'm going to make it a business???  I'll be the smallest businessman in the world, bearing on my shoulders the highest form of personal responsibility, the life & safety of my customer.  NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!

Also... please, not everyone promised anything.  And I haven't even mentioned Steve Schladover who has been stalwart in his efforts to advance this technology in a realistic context.

The Society of Automotive Engineers had, and continue to have, an opportunity to bring realism to this community by, at the very least, simply dropping any reference to anything called "Level 5".  If SAE wishes to be humble and brave, they can also apologize for even suggesting that Level 5's "everywhere" could ever exist within the lifetimes of any current or soon to be member of SAE. By creating the category, SAE baited the Mad Men,  Sunday Supplementers and Click-Bait folks into  fantasizing  something envisioned by a reputable, serious organization.  

SAE, please edit your "Levels literature" by "whiting out" all reference to "Level 5" or adding after any Level 5 "NA".  While you're at it, do it also for "Level 3" because that's also a non-starter. Alain

Saturday, May 29, 2021

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="133" height="21">  The Future of Mobility is Slowly Coming into Focus

M. Sena, June 2021, "...Mobility-as-a-service would provide the business model to tie everything together, perhaps as an extension of your phone/broadband subscription. Private car ownership would soon be a relic of a bygone age.

This is an interesting narrative, but is not a correct one. Even before COVID-19 changed how people have been living outside of China since Friday, the 13th of March 2020, the picture of everything happening in high density cities was a rumor that companies like WEWORK spread to build their houses of cards. ...

One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ..

One effect of changes that have occurred in where people live and work in and around big cities is a phenomenon that was already well underway before the pandemic but has sped up: the demise of inner city buses. I wrote about this in the December 2018 issue of THE DISPATCHER, Is It Time to Throw the Bus Under the Bus?. I wrote:
We need to start thinking outside the bus. If a city is serious about providing a useful bus service, it needs to run them everywhere and often, including at night. It must, therefore, get rid of cars driving and parking on its streets. ... What cities are doing today all over the world is neither providing an adequate service to their citizens nor using the money allocated for transport in a cost-effective way...

Bite the bullet and get private cars off the big city streets
The reasons that people who live in cities began to buy cars was that they needed them to get to their jobs, the ones that began moving out of the cities in the ‘60s to ‘campuses’ where there were no transit links. Then they needed them to drop off their children to day care centers since both parents worked. Then they needed them to drop off their older children...

As I said, it is not buses that will meet the need. Neither is it roads filled with taxis. There are taxis offering rides in Trenton and Scranton, but they are not replacing buses because they are too expensive and are often unavailable when demand for them is highest. The Uber/Lyft model can be better at meeting demand, but they are still too costly..."
Read more  Hmmmm...   Enjoy the whole issue.  It is enormously well written! Also listen/watch the SDC Pod/Zoom Cast 216- below with Michael.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  The Costly Pursuit of Self-Driving Cars Continues On. And On. And On.

C. Metz, May 24, "...  So what went wrong? Some researchers would say nothing — that’s how science works. You can’t entirely predict what will happen in an experiment. ... It's not an experiment if you can predict the outcome.  Why bother doing it??? 

More importantly, Mother Nature is involved and you don't know what she is going to throw at you.  Which is why simulations are not the complete answer...  They'll only regurgitate what you told them to do (which is somewhat useful because they implicate together the things that you thought you knew, giving you new insights.).  The challenge is, She's not involved in the simulation but She is every time you do it...  But that's life and that's what makes it exiting and worth living....  The self-driving car project just happened to be one of the most hyped technology experiments of this century, occurring on streets all over the country and run by some of its highest-profile companies....

Self-driving tech is not yet nimble enough to reliably handle the variety of situations human drivers encounter each day. It can usually handle suburban Phoenix, but it can’t duplicate the human chutzpah needed for merging into the Lincoln Tunnel in New York or dashing for an offramp on Highway 101 in Los Angele  ... True!   But getting it to work in the Nevada desert and then Pheonix is an enormous accomplishment.  Frank didn't just roll out of the womb and make it in New York. He also went through "..the blues..." where he could actually sing and be appreciated in the "..small towns..." before he made it in NYC.  It took GM about '12 seconds' to realize that the required human chutzpah was way to much to get started and they were outathere.   

“If you look at almost every industry that is trying to solve really, really difficult technical challenges, the folks that tend to be involved are a little bit crazy and little bit optimistic,” he said. “You need to have that optimism to get up every day and bang your head against the wall to try to solve a problem that has never been solved, and it’s not guaranteed that it ever will be solved.”  ... Absolutely true. By definition! (I also like to say that you need to be fundamentally stupid; else, you would have known how hard it was going to be and you would have just played golf or video games in your parent's basement...)

“These cars will be able to operate on a limited set of streets under a limited set of weather conditions at certain speeds,” said Jody Kelman, an executive at Lyft. “We will very safely be able to deploy these cars, but they won’t be able to go that many places.” ... Yup!! There is absolutely nothing bad about that.   Go someplace else.   It doesn't need to be much tougher that "Chandler". It doesn't really need to be any "bigger" than "Chandler".

Waymo needs what Chandler doesn't have.. Customers ... Definition: folks whose quality-of-life can be substantially improved by what Waymo's Technology can readily deliver today. )

That's the market side of this initiative that Silicon Valley seems to have forgotten.  Cool Technology doesn't happen, just because it is Technology.  Technology happens because it is Cool.  Cool is the value proposition, not Technology: else we'd have Segways and people wearing GoogleGlass all over the place. 

Assisted Driving (what I call Self-drivingCars, or, sorry, SAE Level 1 and Level 2, or Tesla AutoPilot) are Cool (That technology delivers Comfort and Convenience to those that can afford and wish to buy cars).  The buyer/customer just relies, for the most part, that engineers are making sure that the Technology works.  Customers demand that the Technology adds to what they already enjoy (Cool).  Their attention span is really short.  The "lipstick" wears off quickly.

For Driverless... not so much Cool in Chandler.  Maybe as a fling, or a tale, but actually, the negatives, largely outweigh the positives, think GoogleGlass.  Few move or stay in Chandler unless you have a car (~70% Households have 2 or more cars). 'everyone' has their own car.  So while the Waymo technology might work in Chandler, it doesn't have enough Waymophiles (customers for whom Waymo substantially improves what they already have for themselves) to make it a Go. 

However, take "Trenton".  70 % of the households have one or zero cars.  Many more Trentonians have the opportunity to appreciate the incremental value that Waymo will bring to their lives.  They will more easily become Waymophiles if Waymo delivers in Trenton what Waymo has well demonstrated the "Cool" that it can deliver in Chandler.  Even if Waymo shuts down until the few roads that it uses are plowed the few times it snows in Trenton.  Trenton is Waymos's (Ford/Argo & GM/Cruise as well) "New York".

In short... While Chandler is an ideal place for Waymo to start getting its Technology working, Trenton is a great place for them to deliver societal value, which is supposed to be the fundamental mission of these Google "X.Projects" ... ..."
...X’s primary output is breakthrough technologies that have the potential to transform people’s lives and become large, sustainable businesses."

It is time that Waymo begins to take what they've accomplished and actually begin to deliver primary output.  "Read more  Hmmmm...  Excellent.  Comments in line above.  Also Listen/Watch PodCast above.  Alain

Saturday, May 22, 2021

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Why I Ride with Waymo: Mike

Waymo One, May 13, "... I started taking it to work, and after crunching the numbers for gas, maintenance, insurance, upkeep, and owning a depreciating investment, it was pretty much a no-brainer that we really didn't need two cars. I sold off my car and made Waymo my choice for commuting to and from work and for trips my wife and I need to take when the other is using our car..." Read more  Hmmmm...This is really great that he "crunched the numbers" and found it to be "pretty much a no-brainer", which is what every real Waymo customer in Chandler has to do to become a Waymo customer.  One "doesn't move to Chandler unless one has "two cars".  See slide 5: 70% of the households have 2 or more cars in Chandler, so most of the folks have had to do the math to become a customer.  If Waymo offered the same service in Trenton, where 70% of the households have at most one car and 30% don't have any, then it doesn't take much number crunching to appreciate Waymo when walking is the next best way to go.

The Chandler Operational Design Domain (ODD) may be a great place to get the technology working.  It may well be the "easiest" ODD in the world.  A Trenton ODD may well not be all that much more difficult technologically.  What Trenton does have are customers for whom what Waymo can deliver is truly a no-brainer.  Alain

Saturday, May 15, 2021

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Autonomous Vehicles: A Framework for Deployment and Safety

R. Diamond, May 13, "Join SAFE for an event focused on the importance of autonomous vehicles to our national and economic security and outlining pathways for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.

The event will feature remarks from Dr. Steve Cliff, Acting Administrator of NHTSA, a discussion between industry leaders, and the release of a report, "A Regulatory Framework for AV Safety," by O. Kevin Vincent, Associate General Counsel, Regulatory at Lucid...."  Read more  Hmmmm... A must watch, complemented by the Vincent report and our latest PodCast below.  Alain

Saturday, May 8, 2021

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Why has’t Waymo expanded its driverless service? Here’s my theory

T. Lee, May 7, "Suburban ride-hailing is a lousy business to be in.

Last October, Waymo did something remarkable: the company launched a fully driverless commercial taxi service called Waymo One. Customers in a 50-square-mile corner of suburban Phoenix can now use their smartphones to hail a Chrysler Pacifica minivan with no one in the driver's seat.

And then... nothing. Seven months later, Waymo has neither expanded the footprint of the Phoenix service nor has it announced a timeline for launching in a second city.

It's as if Steve Jobs had unveiled the iPhone, shipped a few thousand phones to an Apple Store in Phoenix, and then didn't ship any more for months—and wouldn't explain why.

Last Friday, two Waymo employees participated in an "ask me anything" thread on the SelfDrivingCars subreddit, a watering hole for self-driving industry insiders. Questions about expansion plans dominated the conversation.

"How are you going to scale?" one redditor asked. "What are the impediments to service expansion at this time?"

The Waymonauts responded with maddening generalities.

"We feel the same urgency to scale quickly that others do, but a ton of work goes into doing it safely," wrote Waymo's Sam Kansara."  Read more  Hmmmm... Not at all surprising.  Can you imagine trying to be better than one's own Land Rover or Porsche in car country.  That is a heavy lift.  Making it heavier is the focus on today's most entitled yuppies. That's as bad as the original focus of driverless cars on 1%ers.  Waymos are pure and simple mobility machines to get you from/to places horizontally, just as elevators do vertically ... just get you up to the "8th floor".  Why are elevators so successful at what they do?... Second best is the stairwell! They win all the time, hands down.

In Chandler, the "stairwell" is your car parked in your garage.  You don't even have to go outside in all that heat.  Waymo's got to be really good to beat that!  Waymo might end up getting close to that good, but in the beginning chances "slim-to-none".  Not that the car in the garage doesn't have an enormous amount of "excess baggage".  Everyone seems to have conveniently forgotten about it.  When even with all of its LiDars, radars and deepLearning, whereas the car with the Mad Men fantasies is way more than half full and your go-to mobility is your car.  Your car allowed you to consider the Chandlers of this world as a place whee you want to live.  That's a challenging market place for Waymo.  It's worse than Bing v Google

A better place for Waymo  ( or Ford/Argo or GM/cruise) the place to start is to focus on a market where they can easily deliver better service.  The obvious market is to provide Waymo mobility to concentrations of households that have zero or only one car.  Folks that have been left behind by the automobile and don't have access to one.  Those that have been relegated to take the staircase thereby not even having the opportunity to reach "the eighth floor"; which, once they can using Waymo,  would substantially improve their lives. They might in fact appreciate Waymo right out of the box.

Manhattan is one such place, but it has a great subway and safely driving its roads is enormously challenging, so that's arguably the last place for Waymo to go.  However, the census identifies many communities and "inner suburbs" that have substantial densities of zero and one-car household.  For example: Trenton New Jersey. Waymo would be the obvious mobility choice.  Numerous Trenton residents  would readily perceive Waymo as the "Google" in their trip mode-choice.  

Another note... trying to sell Waymo technology on its ability to improve safety is a fool's gambit. Since Waymos don't misbehave, it is "easy" to make them safer, but that argument is hard to get across Misbehaviors are core to the fantasies of driving and are thus excused and forgotten about.  Alain

Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor & Director of Undergraduate Studies, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
[log in to unmask]
609-980-1427 (c) 		Princeton Shield[log in to unmask]" class="" width="90" height="100" border="0">


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