J. Kanet,
Nov 9,
"Advanced
Driver
Assistance
Systems (ADAS)
have improved
automobile
safety by
minimizing the
factor most
frequently
associated
with car
accidents –
human error.
The
conventional
wisdom has
been that ADAS
technologies
should
mitigate the
number of
insurance
claims, but
the impact of
ADAS on claim
severity has
been less
clear. ADAS
features
include
expensive and
complex
technical
components and
are often
installed on
exposed areas
of vehicles,
making them
susceptible to
damage from a
collision.
This white
paper examines
the
multivariate
effect of ADAS
features on
claim
severity. It
is a follow up
to our earlier
report, ADAS
Analysis
Creates Path
for Auto
Insurance
Rating,
which analyzed
the impact of
ADAS systems
on claim
frequency. For
both analyses,
LexisNexis
Risk Solutions
considered the
same sample of
11 million
vehicles from
model years
2014-2019, and
reviewed
industry-wide
claims loss
data for
bodily injury,
property
damage and
collision
coverages.
For this
follow-up
report, we
looked at the
interactions
between a core
list of ADAS
features and
quantified the
claim severity
differential
across all 648
possible
combinations
of those
features. ...
" Read more Hmmmm... Excellent. Finally there is
data that
supports that
ADAS is indeed
fundamentally
good for the
insurance
industry in
that it allows
them to make
more money.
Not to be
crass, but
"crash
mitigation"
(airbag, energy absorbing car design, ...) has been
great for
safety...
saving lives,
reducing
occupant
severity , ...
but,
the
liabilities
associated
with crash
mitigation
have
increased. Claim
Severity
for both Physical
Damage and
Bodily Injury
have gone
up. Cars are
more expensive
to repair and it
costs more if
you live than
if you die.
🙁,.
For years I've been arguing that ADAS focused
squarely on
Crash
Prevention {automated
collision avoidance
(that actually
works well...
does kick
automatically
to avoid
collision 😎),
not just
"warning"
(that is
annoying.
Because since it is just a warning
there is no
pressure to
make it work
well... just
cover your
butt! So, no
pressure to
make it work
well. Consequently,
"everyone"
turns it off
to avoid being
annoyed... 🙁}
is
Automation's
best
opportunity to
deliver real
safety...
Save lives,
..., and make
$$$ for the
Insurance
industry!
For years, I've postulated that as soon as {"the
expected
liability
savings for
ADAS (the
difference in
the expected
liability for
me
with&without...)"
< (less
than)
"incremental
cost of ADAS
on the price
of a car that
I am about to
buy
(difference
with&without)"},
my insurance
agent (the Gecko, Flo,
NJM,
or ???) should
insist on
picking up the
tab on the
price
difference as
long as I
continue to
pay my
existing
premiums!
Nothing but a
win-win! I
win because
the
probability
that I die...
is lower and
the Gecko,
Flo,
NJM,
or ??? smile
all the way to
the bank😎.
These are real
market
forces.
This
is the first
report that
I've seen that
begins to
quaintly the
reduction in
"expected
liability" of
ADAS based on
real
experiential
data. To me,
this is major!
Be sure to see the white paper True Impact of ADAS Features on Insurance Claim Severity Revealed and listen/watch the SDC Pod/ZoomCast 242. Alain
[log in to unmask]" _mf_state="1" title="null" src="cid:[log in to unmask]" class="" width="44" height="44" border="0"> The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University's Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
M.
McFarland,
Nov. 18, "...
Asking "full
self-driving"
to navigate
Brooklyn felt
like asking a
student driver
to take on a
road test they
weren't ready
for yet.... "
Read more Hmmmm... There are many other good
quotes in this
article and
the video
is a must
watch
reality check.
Brooklyn is
tough! Can you
imagine
Manhattan???
On the other hand, it is really impressive in what it
does do. It
has come a
long way AND
has a long way
yet to go.
That is the
reality... We
still have
much more to
do before
society begins
to really reap
any of the
benefits of
this
technology. So
let's get out
of Silicon
Valley's
swashbuckling
“fake it till
you make it”
culture,
put our heads
down, and keep
working. I'm
still
confident we
can make it
and let's
absolutely
stop faking
it! Alain
E. Griffin, Nov. 19, "... And on Friday, the person whom prosecutors have been making their case against — Elizabeth Holmes, the founder of the failed blood testing start-up Theranos — took the stand to defend herself. She faces 11 counts of defrauding investors over Theranos’s technology and business in a case that has been billed as a referendum on Silicon Valley’s start-up culture. She has pleaded not guilty...." Read more Hmmmm... "If convicted, Ms. Holmes, 37, faces up to 20 years in prison. While high-profile start-up founders from Uber’s Travis Kalanick to WeWork’s Adam Neumann have experienced swift falls from grace over ethics scandals, Ms. Holmes may become one of the few to go to jail for it." .... Interesting that the women go to jail and the men ... Whew! Alain
Opinion,
Nov. 20, "...
The current
truck driver
shortage is
rooted in
sweatshop
working
conditions
imposed by the
trucking
industry, not
a lack of
qualified
drivers...."
Read
more Hmmmm...
I support Jane
Claybrook's
Opinion and
Automated
Driver
Assistance
(ADAS) for
truckers as
the real
opportunity to
improve
working
conditions and
attract new
drivers.
Drivers need
help in order
to be able to
notDie and
feed their
families.
That should be
THE
primary focus
of automated
technology.
NOT... taking
the driver out
of the truck.
Way too early
to even think
about that.
Sorry Ariel
and all of the
"SoftBanks" of
this world.
See also: "The
Supply-Chain
Crisis Is
Creating a
Rare
Opportunity
for Truck
Drivers" Alain
S. Fuller,
Nov. 3,
"TuSimple is
working with
UPS Supply
Chain
Solutions to
expand its
Autonomous
Freight
Network and begin
commercial
runs to UPS
North American
Air Freight
terminals in
Orlando,
Florida, and
Charlotte,
North
Carolina, TuSimple
announced
Wednesday...."
Read
more Hmmmm...
Surprised to
not see the
word
"driverless"
between
"begin" and
"commercial".
???? (my
italics
above). See
also the "Drive
Insight"
piece of the
above. Alain
A. Maykuth,
Nov. 18, "Peco
Energy
electric bills
will increase
about 6.6% on
Jan. 1 under a
proposal the
state approved
Thursday,
which also
enhances the
Philadelphia
utility’s
support for
electric
vehicle
charging
infrastructure...."
Read
more Hmmmm...Can
you imagine
the headlines
in 2030 when
"20%" of rich
people and
"40%' of
environmentalists
own electric
cars and we've
stopped using
coal to create
the electrons
and ... Again
we are going
to need to get
from the
existing LL Energy Chart
to one without
coal and
??.??% less
petroleum on
the left and
roughly the
same right
hand side. If
Supply
of electricity
doesn't keep
pace with that
kind of
increasing Demand,
then what does
the 2030
electricity
situation look
like compared
to the Gas
Shortages in
1970s America?
😭 Alain
E. Lipton,,
Nov 20, "The
clean energy
revolution is
replacing oil
and gas with a
new global
force: the
minerals and
metals needed
in electric
car batteries,
solar panels
and other
forms of
renewable
energy.
Places like
the Democratic
Republic of
Congo, which
produces
two-thirds of
the world’s
supply of
cobalt, for
example, are
stepping into
the kinds of
roles once
played by
Saudi Arabia
and other
oil-rich
nations. And a
race between
China and the
United States
to secure
supplies could
have
far-reaching
implications
for the shared
goal of
protecting the
planet.
An
investigation
by The New
York Times
drew on
interviews
with more than
100 people on
three
continents and
thousands of
pages of
financial,
diplomatic and
other
documents.
Here are some
of the
findings...."
Read
more Hmmmm...
Does the Congo
become the new
Saudi Arabia
of 2030 and
beyond????? Alain
C. Clifford, Nov. 17, "TerraPower, a start-up co-founded by Bill Gates to revolutionize designs for nuclear reactors, has chosen Kemmerer, Wyoming, as the preferred location for its first demonstration reactor. It aims to build the plant in the frontier-era coal town by 2028... " Read more Hmmmm... Or... Does Does Bill Gates become the knight in shining armor that save's the day. I've "always" been a big fan of "neighborhood nukes". Alain
Staff, Nov.
18, "Apple
stock surged
3% to a record
high and
eclipsed
Microsoft in
market cap on
Thursday after
Bloomberg
reported that
the iPhone
maker is
accelerating
its
development of
an electric
car that is
fully
autonomous..."
Read
more Hmmmm...
Will there
ever be any
real substance
behind this
initiative or
is it all
about bling?
Alain
A. Hawkins,
Nov. 19, "The
Miami City
Commission has
voted to end
its multiyear
experiment
with shared
electric
scooters. In a
four to five
vote, the
commission
approved a
“pocket item”
(a last-minute
legislative
maneuver) to
end the Miami
scooter pilot.
The ordinance
went into
effect at
midnight
November
18th...." Read
more Hmmmm...
Yea!!! One
almost ran me
down on the
sidewalk along
Nassau
Street!.
Since I'd
probably kill
myself and
others if I
tried one, I'm
one of the old
guys
yelling...
Yea!!! 😎
Alain
A. Hawkins,
Nov. 17, "...
Uber One
members won’t
have to pay a
delivery fee
for takeout
and groceries,
will have
priority
access to top
rated drivers
and couriers,
and get $5
cash back on
late
deliveries.
They’ll also
get other
“exclusive
perks,” such
as various
promotions and
“invite-only
experiences.”..."
Read
more Hmmmm...
Great idea if
your
fundamental
product scales...
unit costs of
production
gets cheaper
the more you
sell.
Unfortunately,
not true with
labor
intensive
products such
as home
delivery and
chauffeuring.
These costs
get higher
because those
willing to gig
for little or
nothing is a
very limited
resource. At
some point one
needs revenue
to cover their
cost of
living.
However, this is a great idea if folks just pay for the membership and never use it. This is successful if Uber shrinks. Alain
F. Lambert,
Nov. 15,
"Tesla is
seeing an
increase in
complaints
over serious
and dangerous
phantom
braking events
plaguing
Autopilot in
the latest
software
updates.
Phantom
braking is a
term used to
describe when
an advanced
driver assist
system (ADAS)
or a
self-driving
system applies
the brakes for
no good
reason...." Read
more Hmmmm...
It is
interesting
that this only
becomes a
problem when
Tesla's
Automated
Emergency
Braking system
(AEBs) in not
disabled.
That's a real
"Hmmmm...
" Alain
F. Lambert,
Nov. 19, "Dan
Ives from
Wedbush, one
of the top 10
ranked stock
analysts in
the world, has
increased his
price target
on Tesla’s
stock (TSLA)
as he believes
the automaker
will take a
significant
part of the
growing EV
market.
In a new note
to clients
today, Wedbush
announced that
it is
increasing its
price target
on Tesla from
$1,100 per
share to
$1,400...." Read
more Hmmmm... Wow!! Glad I bought a few shares
a month or so
ago. So happy
for those who
jumped on much
earlier than I
did (and glad
I've never
shorted
anything).
This may end
up being my
first
non-"buy-high-sell-low"
investment
decision.😁
Alain
Date Change: Thursday evening, May 5,
through
Saturday May
7, 2022. Live
in Trenton,
New Jersey.
"Everything" was going well wrt the 5th Summit Nov 18->20; however...
Time is very short, we must focus on the election and the realities of where we remain with Covid really put cold water on some aspects of our vision for November.
Consequently. I've become convinced that it is very much better, that we take our time and reschedule for the first week on May 2022 rather than rush for what isn't as good as could be.
By May we will have received responses to our upcoming RfI for "Equitable ... Mobility in Trenton". We will thus have a better idea on "Who", from the "What & How" communities, "Want & Can" Deploy "Equitable ... Mobility" starting in Trenton with real expectations of scaling throughout New Jersey.
In May the 5th Summit can better achieve its fundamental purpose by allowing all of us in New Jersey to better learn from others around the world the "Whats & Hows" and have the possible "Whos" get a better appreciation of the "Equitable ... Mobility" desires of Trentonians and other New Jersians.
Rescheduling the Summit to be between the RfI and the RfP steps of our Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) Deployment Process, will better enable our Community Engagement initiative to shape our ultimate deployment. We'll thus deliver even better mobility equitably and best improve quality-of-life in Trenton and throughout New Jersey.
Please pencil into your calendar the new dates of May 5 (Thursday evening) though May 7 (Trenton Mobility Festival Saturday). 😎 Please let me know if these dates work for you.
Sorry about the delay, but many will be relieved by this change. Plus, early May is really nice in NJ.😁
Alain
This
5th
Summit is
inspired by
the many
levels of
public-sector,
community and
neighborhood
welcoming and
support that
now exists in
New Jersey for
the deployment of
equitable,
affordable,
high-quality
mobility. This
is now made
possible by
automated
driving
technology
that is
especially
targeted to
serve
those who, for
whatever
reason, don't
have access to
their own
personal
car.
The
Princeton SDC
Summits were
initiated in
2017 to
provide a
venue for the
open
discussion of
how
technology, in
particular
automation,
can be shaped
to improve
mobility of
people and
goods between
and within
cities. Early
on, we
realized that
this form of
mobility could
easily provide
yet another
alternative to
those who are
fortunate
enough to
enjoy one or
many high
quality
mobility
options.
But, more importantly, it became obvious that substantial improvement in quality-of-life and equitable mobility can readily be made available to the un-served and under-served. Those who cannot drive themselves, cannot afford the transport alternatives that exist for them, or who live in areas where, for either economic or other reasons, neither public nor private desirable forms of transport are offered. Furthermore, such initial Operational Design Domains (OODs) can be readily expanded and replicated to allow the vast investments continuing to be made in this technology to actually yield their envisioned societal and financial benefits.
The
recently
completed 4th
Summit set the
groundwork for
these initial
deployments to
benefit under-served communities. Communities with many households
having access
to one or
fewer cars and
with
challenged
transit
alternatives.
We concluded
the 4th Summit
by envisioning a deployment throughout Trenton, NJ, a
community
where 70% of
the households
have access to
one or fewer
cars.
We
believe that
Trenton is a
perfect ODD to
begin to
deliver Equitable,
Affordable,
High-quality
Mobility,
in addition to
being
environmentally
responsible,
safe and
comfortable.
The
opportunity to
expand
throughout
Mercer County
and replicate
this
deployment
scenario
throughout the
State exists.
This
deployment
will serves
as a blueprint
for the future
for many other
"Trentons" of
this world.
The
groundwork set
by the 4th
Summit and the
NJ Autonomous
Vehicle Task
Force has
enabled us to
create a "most
welcoming
environment"
in New Jersey
for creating a
Public-Private
Partnership to
deliver this
enhanced
mobility to
the residents
of Trenton and
all New
Jersians. The 5th Summit will
focus directly
on deployment in Trenton and will take place in Trenton. We also
envision its
expansion
throughout
Mercer County
and its
replication in
and around New
Jersey's other
major
cities.
H. Poser'77, Sept 13, 2020. "Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines" . See slides, See video Hmmmm... Simply Brilliant. Alain
These
editions re
sponsored by
the SmartETFs
Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information
head to www.motoetf.com
H. Posner,
Nov 10,
"UK-based
rolling stock
& battery
technology
manufacturer
Vivarail noted
a number of
achievements
during the
first week of
the COP26 UN
Climate Change
Conference in
Glasgow. The
opening
Saturday of
the conference
on Saturday
October 30 saw
a historic run
across the
Firth of
Forth,. as the
first electric
train across
the iconic
bridge.
Vivarail was
asked to
operate its
battery train
for
demonstration
runs through
the conference
as part of the
official
Network Rail
Green
Trains@COP26
event. Each
day the train
has taken
delegates and
invited guests
from around
the world to
showcase the
best of new
emission-free
technology. In
the first week
the train
carried
hundreds of
people from
government,
industry,
academia,
media and
advocacy
groups. ... "
Read
more Hmmmm...
But you know that the Pop-Up Metro train was the
First Across
the Atlantic.
Video,
Slides
and ZoomCast
re: Pop-Up
Metro.
And there is
always Alain
climbing on #6988.😎
.
Absolutely
Fantastic
Henry. Alain
R. Mitchel, Oct 7, "Compared with so-called advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot, a forward collision avoidance system is relatively crude. It is designed to answer one question — is a frontal impact imminent? — and respond to danger by sounding a warning and, if necessary, triggering a subsystem called automatic emergency braking. Unlike Autopilot, which must be selected manually and is available only under some driving conditions, automatic emergency braking runs by default unless manually turned off....
Tesla calls its vehicles “the safest cars in the world,” citing their combination of structural engineering and advanced technology. But when it comes to the forward collision avoidance system, Tesla owners have been reporting problems at a substantially elevated rate compared with similarly equipped cars....
“Teslas are running into stationary objects,” said Alain Kornhauser, who heads the driverless car engineering program at Princeton University. “They shouldn’t be.” If the company’s cars can’t avoid crash scenes marked by flares or traffic cones, he said, “how can you trust anything else they do with Autopilot?”...
One
possibility,
according to
Missy
Cummings, a
former Navy
fighter pilot
who studies
human-machine
interaction at
Duke
University, is
that Autopilot
is designed to
preempt or
suppress
emergency
braking to
minimize
what’s known
as phantom
braking.
“I haven’t
seen the code
to say how
Tesla works,
but I suspect
the AEB is
turned off in
some
situations,”
she said. “If
it were left
on it may
detect what
are called
phantom
objects and
would be
slamming on
the
brakes.”... "
Read
more Hmmmm...
This story is
great and is
not what
anyone else
has written.
Thank you,
Russ, for
doing all of
the research
and hard work
that you put
into this
article.
I agree with Missy, (I haven't
seen the code
either), but,
rest assured,
a perception
algorithm is
part of each
of Tesla's
automated
systems that
"drive" their
cars some of
the time, be
it its forward collision avoidance
system (FCAS),
autoPilot or
FSD. They may
each have its
own or the
best one is
used in all
three, but
each has an
FCAS; else,
Teslas would
never know to
invoke any of
the driving
sub-tasks,
like slow down
or speed up or
stay in the
lane, or don't
hit me, or
... If a
Tesla
perception
system detects
an objects
that doesn't
exist and
locates it as
being in the
lane ahead,
i.e. a
"stationary
phantom object
in the lane
ahead", then
that
perception
system will
signal to the
automated
driving
system... to
slow down and
don't hit it.
If Tesla's
human driver
is paying
attention to
what is going
on and, of
course,
doesn't see
the phantom
object (it is
phantom = not
real), then
the alert
driver is
justified in
losing trust
that FCAS,
autoPilot or
FSD is
reliable and
won't kill.
The erosion of
that trust
leads to
complaints,
demands for
refunds and
substantial
problems for
Tesla.
Tesla
has simply
gotten ahead
of itself in
trying to get
to Driverless
too quickly,
rather than
making sure
that Automated
Emergency
Braking (AEB)
works better
than "good
enough". My
guess is,
Tesla
perception
algorithm
simply ignores
stationary
objects
detected in
the lane
ahead and
those detected
to be to the
side of the
lane ahead.
Ignoring detected stationary objects is perfectly appropriate when following a car ahead. The car ahead didn't crash into that detected stationary object ahead, so the coast is clear! I'll be able to pass under/to the side/over it too! If the car ahead crashes into that object, Its sudden deceleration is readily perceived by the trailing Tesla's AEB. As long as the Tesla has not been tailgating (which a good AEB should disallow), the Tesla should be able to stop in time to avoid crashing into the new pileup ahead. All easy, and likely not the scenario in any of the NHTSA crash investigations.
Not
so easy if the
Tesla is the
lead vehicle,
especially if
the vehicle
that the Tesla
was following
suddenly
changes lanes
and is no
longer
explicitly
confirming
that the
Tesla's road
ahead is
traversable,
It is now the
Tesla's job to
determine if
it can pass
under a
stationary
object in the
lane ahead.
That is simply
not easy
to do
reliably. Not
easy to
determine the
clearance
under an
overpass/sign/traffic
light/tree
canopy while
approaching
said
overpass/...
at any
significant
speed. If the
object is
classified as
an overpass/sign/traffic
light/tree
canopy,
the chance are
really good
that "passing
under" is a
breeze.
However, if
classification
of the object
is uncertain,
then all bets
are off.
I strongly suspect that Tesla's perception algorithm disregards all stationary objects ahead when leading as well as when following. NHTSA has to tell Tesla to not do that any more!!! Tesla must go back, essentially to the beginning, and figure out how to reliably determine if it can pass under, beside or over stationary objects detected in the road ahead. Alain
A.
Hawkins, Sep
30, "Waymo and
Cruise, two of
the leading
autonomous
vehicle
companies in
the US,
received
permits from
the California
Department of
Motor Vehicles
to offer rides
to passengers
in their
robotaxis.
But while
Cruise was
approved to
give rides in
its fully
driverless
vehicles
without safety
drivers, Waymo
only is
allowed to
deploy its
autonomous
vehicles with
a human
monitor behind
the wheel. In
order to give
rides to
paying
passengers in
its fully
driverless
vehicles, as
it does in
Arizona, the
Google spinoff
would need to
apply for an additional
permit from
the California
Public
Utilities
Commission.
... "
Read more Hmmmm...
Congratulations Kyle, Robert and everyone else!!!! This is a non-trivial
accomplishment!
Given all of the additional knocks
on your door
that will
naturally come
your way, we
hope that
you'll keep us
in mind. We
here in NJ
have assembled
an enormously
welcoming and
realistic
environment
for Deployment
to a customer
base that will
fundamentally
benefit and
cherish the
Equitable,
Affordable,
High-Quality,
Safe Mobility
that is
delivered by
your
Driverless
Technology.
Hopefully
you'll divert
a little
bandwidth to
our upcoming "5th Annual
SDC Summit",
New Jersey's
next step in
our process to
help you and
possibly
others get to
where you've
gotten in
California.
We are new
kids on the
block, but
we've really
gotten our act
together to
work with you
and others to
catch up
quickly and
really improve
the
quality-of-life
for many here
in New
Jersey, and
the rest of
the NorthEast.
Again... Congratulations! So pleased and so well deserved! Alain
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