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B. Plumer, Sept. 1, "California took some of its most aggressive steps yet to fight global warming as lawmakers passed a flurry of new climate bills late Wednesday, including a record $54 billion in climate spending, a measure to prevent the state’s last nuclear power plant from closing, ...
As part of that spending package, legislators endorsed a plan
to keep open the Diablo Canyon Power Plant, a pair of nuclear
reactors that provide 9 percent of California’s electricity
without producing any emissions.
Those reactors were originally scheduled to close in 2024 and
2025, but the new plan extends those deadlines to 2029 and
2030 while providing a $1.4 billion loan to Pacific Gas &
Electric, the utility that operates the plant. PG&E is
also expected to apply for money from a new $6 billion federal
program designed to keep open existing nuclear plants.
Mr. Newsom had once been a firm believer that Diablo Canyon
should shut down. But as California has faced increasingly
severe heat waves that drive up demand for electricity and
strain the grid, the state has struggled to keep the lights
on. So, this summer, Mr. Newsom reversed course and urged
lawmakers to keep the plant open.
Some environmentalists criticized the move, arguing that the
money would be better spent on other clean energy resources
like solar and wind power and batteries. But proponents of
keeping the plant open warned that California badly needed the
electricity, and if the plant closed, it would be replaced
with more polluting sources like natural gas...." Read more Hmmmm...
Excellent!
California leading with some real sanity here. Alain
R. Mitchell, Aug. 31, 2022, "Since 2016, Tesla has been
marketing an expensive option called Full Self-Driving. A
reasonable person might infer from the name that the software
package enables a car to drive itself, fully.
It does not. No car available for consumers to buy is capable
of full self-driving. The California Department of Motor
Vehicles has rules on its books that ban the advertisement of
cars as “self-driving” when they are not. But it has never
enforced those rules.
So, impatient with the DMV, the state Legislature is stepping
in, going over the DMV’s head and making its false advertising
regulation a state law.
The bill, sponsored by Senate Transportation Committee Chair
Lena Gonzalez (D-Long Beach), was passed by the Senate on
Tuesday night and now heads to Gov. Gavin Newsom for his
signature. Newsom’s office did not immediately respond to a
request for comment.
False advertising of self-driving technology is a serious
safety issue, Gonzalez said. At least several deaths have been
linked to Tesla’s Autopilot, the cheaper, more basic version
of Full Self-Driving...." Read more Hmmmm...
Excellent!
More great leadership coming out of California. I hope
that the law extends to press releases that then get
repeated by the press. Hopefully this is not a loophole
in the legislation. Alain
B. Templeton, Aug. 31. "... The sale of this product is quite
unusual in global industry, and the take-rate for it has been
dropping as the price has risen. This opens up questions about
why the price continues to rise, why people buy it, and what
strategies it opens up when the price is this high — including
one strategy which suggest they be enacting a contingency in
case the project does not succeed.... " Read more Hmmmm...
???
Brad, This is not your most parsimonious argument.
Occam's razor would simply suggest that a $15k price tag
for something that is really "Full Self-driving" is a very
small price tag even if the price tag was very much
cheaper yesterday. Alain
B. Schneider, Aug. 29, "Despite their ubiquity on San
Francisco’s streets, Waymo’s pearly white autonomous vehicles
have an air of mystery about them. Like The City’s growing
population of coyotes, these purring electric Jaguars may
appear in any neighborhood, at any time of day or night and
sometimes in packs.
Now, the Google subsidiary is hoping to preserve a certain
amount of mystery around its operations in San Francisco by
claiming confidentiality on some of the data it is required to
publicly report. Specifically, Waymo is seeking to withhold
trip-level data on its limited ride-hail service in San
Francisco, including pickup and dropoff locations, time of day
and miles traveled. It also wants to make information about
its charging stations confidential.... " Read
more Hmmmm... OK about the location of their charging
stations. We probably can find them on Google Earth
anyway, but what are they hiding about the personTrip
mobility that they are delivering. All Yellow cab, Uber
and Lyft rides in Manhattan are reported. What is more
confidential about Waymo rides? Alain
F. Lambert, Aug, 30, "An insurance company has faked a Tesla
battery fire and crash as part of a bizarre showcase to show
that electric cars cause more accidents.
Tesla vehicles have been tested by many auto safety agencies
around the world, including the Insurance Institute for
Highway Safety (IIHS), which most recently gave the Tesla
Model Y its highest possible safety rating....
24auto.de confirmed that AXA Insurance completely faked the crash by pulling the vehicle to launch and then activating pyrotechnics to fake a fire:..." Read more Hmmmm... So bad!!! Shame on you AXA Insurance! Alain
J. Stebbins, Aug. 31, "... The Pitney Bowes routes will have
a safety driver to start, but the company expects to have the
trucks completely driverless within a few months. ....
...OK! Great expectations. Let's revisit in a few months to see if there is anything really new here....
"... “By constraining
the autonomy problem, we can get to the point where the driver
comes out [of the safety driver role] faster than anyone else
in the industry,” Gatik’s CEO, Gautam Narang, told CNBC in an
interview. . Read
more Hmmmm... Taken literally, this quote implies that
no one, including Gatik, has gotten "... to the point where the driver comes
out." I believe that in trucking, that is a true
statement.
(TuSimple took the driver out for a test run but had a human-driven lead vehicle clearing the way and a human-driven chase vehicle prepared to help should something unexpected happen... Not a commercially viable approach to safe driverless.) Alain
A. Marshall, Aug. 29, "Meanwhile, another revolutionary
technology is also approaching: self-driving vehicles.
Automakers and tech companies have poured hundreds of billions
into the quest for robot cars. That spending has yet to bear
commercial fruit, but it is expected to reshape everything
from the business of cars to city streets and the labor
market.
Mark Reuss, the president of General Motors, has worked at the
Detroit automaker for decades and feels the ground shifting
beneath his feet. The company is ramping up production of new
electric models like the Cadillac Lyriq and Chevrolet
Silverado EV, manufacturing its own battery packs in a joint
venture with LG, and trying to push forward self-driving
subsidiary Cruise,..
We’re solving one of the greatest engineering problems in the
world with autonomous driving. Our approach has always been to
go to the hardest place, which is what we’re doing in San
Francisco. I was out there for a Cruise board meeting two
weeks ago, and we’re becoming more aligned as we look at the
opportunities that we’re going to have with AVs and
PAVs—personal autonomous vehicles. We’ve got 34 million miles
on Cruise. And we monitor what Super Cruise [GM’s hands-free
driving feature] does every day. We’re actually building the
Origin [GM’s driverless taxi], alongside the Hummer and the
Silverado at Factory Zero. ..." Read
more Hmmmm... I'm not a fan of the "Frank Sinatra"
approach to accomplishing an objective. I much prefer
focusing delivering the most value the earliest along the
evolutionary path. Unfortunately, San Francisco already
has many very good mobility solutions for which driverless
automation add little of any value. There are many easier
places where mobility and wealth is not as concentrated
and automation can substantially improve the
quality-of-life of many (Automation is all about
affordability... replace human labor costs with
technology). Seems that "expected delivered value" (aka
market opportunity) should play a bigger role in deciding
on which problems to solve, where, as opposed to "hardness
of the problem".
There is enormous opportunity for
this technology to deliver substantial societal benefits
without ever working in San Francisco. Why not get it to
work in places where it delivers real value without it
needing to work everywhere.
P. Johnson, Aug. 30, "Chinese tech giant Baidu (BIDU) beat Wall Street’s Q2 earnings estimates on Tuesday despite several headwinds in China’s economy. Baidu’s Apollo Go, its robotaxi business, unveiled its next-gen autonomous EV, the Apollo RT6, as the service surpasses 1 million rides...." Read more Hmmmm... Since "... the service ...." is NOT described and it is NOT explicitly stated that these personTrips were served in cars without a driver or attendant, one MUST assume that there was an attendant and or driver in those cars; else, they would have been extremely precise and proud that they had actually accomplishes something better than what conventional taxis have done for 100 years. Little to get excited about here. Alain
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart
Transportation
and Technology
ETF, symbol
MOTO. For more
information
head to www.motoetf.com
https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provided technical support
@t=47 Autonomy CEO Scott
Painter
D.
Hall, Aug. 9,
"Tesla, GM,
Volkswagen and
Ford are among
the automakers
set to get big
orders from
Autonomy, a
startup
offering
drivers the
option of
subscribing to
an electric
vehicle
instead of
buying one
outright.
Autonomy plans
to announce
Tuesday that
it’s ordering
nearly 23,000
EVs from 17
different
automakers for
a total outlay
of $1.2
billion. With
chip shortages
limiting
production
capacity at
most
automakers,
it’s unclear
how soon such
a fleet could
be amassed.
The order
represents
1.2% of the
projected US
electric
vehicle
production
through the
end of next
year... .” Read more Hmmmm... While this is a
very
interesting
play for an
individual to
acquire a
subscription
to have a
"Drive-it-Yourself" (DiY) electric car that gives the individual anywhere
& anytime
mobility. The
subscription
is acquired
using a simple
anywhere &
anytime mobile
phone app (the
"autonomy" of
the concept)
that bundles,
insurance,
maintenance,
taxes, the
vehicle,...
Essentially
everything
except the
electricity.
Just DiY it
and get from
where you are
to where you
want to go
when you want
to "Just do
It" (JdI).
All at an attractive monthly subscription
charge when
you consider
all that is
bundled. This
is DiY/MaaSS
(Mobility as a
SubscriptionService) for those that can DiY.
See the Bloomberg Video and well
as
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 279 / PodCast 279 w/Scott Painter, CEO Autonomy
E. Musk, Aug. 4, .” Read more Hmmmm... Watch the Q & A portion starting about an hour in from the start. Watch especially the comments about his vision of the Tesla RoboTaxi (aka driverless cars, what I prefer to call autonomousTaxis or aTaxis, the new "Modern Transit"). The key visions are:
While I don't agree with the option of owning your
own and
renting it out
"AirB&B
-style where
B&B =
Mobility". It
is easier and
more likely to
begin by
having a
Professional
entity
managing a
fleet of Tesla
RoboTaxis that
provide
mobility to
the everyone
in the
community.
This will be
the the
"Modern Public
Transit". An
example being
Trenton MOVES
using a fleet
of Tesla
RoboTaxis.
For these RoboTaxis to be attractive to a fleet
operator, they
will need to
be styled
differently
than consumer
versions that
are sold to
individuals.
The RoboTaxi
will need to
be easy to get
in and out and
interface well
with
wheelchairs.
They'll need
to accommodate
ride-sharing
(personTrips
are the source
of the
revenue, not
vehicle
sales). They
should have
4-wheel
steering so
they will
never need to
back up in
stub-end
operation. He
has re
imagined the
pickup truck.
Certainly, he
can re-imagine
a car focused
on providing
safe,
equitable,
affordable,
sustainable
high-quality
mobility
throughout a
community.
At the end of addressing the future of Robotasis he states ..." assuming we do all these things, I think, probably, Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world."
While
a great
vision, this
is simply not
realistic. He
started
selling Teslas
in California,
not throughout
the whole
country. He
fully
understands
that one must
crawl before
one walks,
before one
runs.
As you might suspect, I have the ideal "California" for him to first deploy his RoboTaxis and its not California or Arizona. It is New Jersey: Trenton, NJ or Perth Amboy, NJ or Patterson, NJ or many other cities in New Jersey where the mobility offered by Tesla RoboTaxis would be life changing to many while becoming an interesting alternative to everyone else. DoJo can more readily regress the coefficients to deliver safe driverless operation within any one of these Operational Design Domains (ODD) rather than trying to do them all simultaneously. Coefficients can/should be tied to ODDs rather than having one "magical" set that works in all ODDs. It is trivial for the Operating system to load the coefficients that work best in theRoboTaxi's current ODD. This should allow RoboTaxis to demonstrate their technical, economic and societal virtues much sooner in these communities. Market success will fuel expansion and replication in the delivery of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility so that is spreads beyond New Jersey to California and beyond just like the purchase of the first Teslas spread from California to New Jersey and beyond.
@ t=7417 Elon is asked about the Boring
Company.
True,
if one
could bore
tunnels
inexpensively,
it would be
great for
longer
distance
travel.
Certainly, all
of the
freeways in
and around
cities would
be placed
underground.
High Speed
rail on the
NorthEast
Corridor can
only go
underground
for long
stretches.
Bringing the
Dinky to a
Nassau Street
terminus must
be done
underground.
By the way
Washington
Road should be
underground
eradicating
the cancer
that it is as
a surface
street
severing the
Princeton
Campus. Then
there is Rt.
29 that
devastated
Trenton by
barricading
the western
part of
Trenton from
the Delaware
River and Rt.
129 that
severed
neighborhoods;
a scenario
that was
repeated in
essentially
every city to
accommodate
through-moving
surface
travel. They
should all go
underground.
There is much
good that
could be
done. The
challenge is
the above if.
@ t=6665 "when
disengaging
autoPilot with
the wheel, the
accelerator
stays on.
Please fix it!"
Maybe...
touching or
not touching
the steering
wheel has
little in
common with
acceleration
(and braking)
which is (are)
controlled by
the feet. The
steering
control should
be readily
overcome by
input of a
torque on the
steering
wheel;
however, the
steering
control should
revert to
dominance if
the driver
ceases to
exhort a
torque on the
wheel.
Moreover,
torquing the
steering wheel
should not
disengage the
brake or the
throttle.
With respect to the driver actions on the brake and throttle:
Driver
input from the
throttle
should have
precedence
over
"intelligent
cruise control
(ICC)" input
to the
throttle and
brake and
should NOT
turn off the
system simply
because the
driver touched
the
accelerator
pedal.
For
the brake, it
is a little
different.
Tapping the
brake should
turn off the
acceleration
function of
the ICC.
Acceleration
should remain
off until the
driver
explicitly
re-engages
it. Moreover,
driver input
to the brake,
if less than
what the ICC
calls for,
should always
be
dominated by
the ICC's
desire to
brake.
Tapping of the
brakes should
not turn off
the braking
function of
the ICC. That
intelligent
brakig
function
should
continue to
keep m fro
getting to
close to the
vehicle in
front of me.
The
acceleration
function has
been turned
off so I won't
accelerate
into the back
of the car
ahead of me
and the
braking
function
should
continue to do
its best to
keep a proper
separation
between me and
the vehicle
ahead.
Turning the
whole system
off placing me
completely in
control should
require an
explicit
action by me
that indicates
I'm knowingly
usurping
responsibility.
Reuters,
July 26,
"General
Motors Co
(GM.N) has
lost nearly $5
billion since
2018 trying to
build a
robotaxi
business in
San Francisco,
and now as the
automaker's
Cruise unit
starts
charging for
rides, the
losses are
accelerating.
GM said on
Tuesday it
lost $500
million on
Cruise during
the second
quarter - more
than $5
million a day
- as it began
charging for
rides in a
limited area
of San
Francisco. ... that may be the case for the last quarter, but
the chart
below from GM's 6/30/222 10-Q Shows ($800M) for the
last 6 months
or $4.38/day
when divided
by 182.625
Whew!😅...
Cruise's
costly effort
to transform
autonomous
driving
technology
from a
long-term
research
project to a
profit-spinning
business comes
as investors
are backing
away from
riskier bets
on technology,
and
reassessing
how soon robot
vehicles of
any kind will
be deployed in
large scale on
public roads.
Shares of autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR.O), for example, are down 80% for the year to date. Shares of robo-trucking company TuSimple Holdings Inc (TSP.O) have lost more than 70% of their value. Some automakers, including Ford Motor Co (F.N), have scaled back investments in automated vehicle units, or taken on partners to share the costs....
Cruise's
losses for the
first six
months of the
year deepened
to $900
million from
$600 million
during the
same period in
2021 - when
Cruise was not
charging for
rides. Higher
compensation
costs to keep
staff on board
after putting
aside plans
for an IPO
were one
factor in the
results, GM
executives
said.
Chief
Executive Mary
Barra said on
Tuesday she is
still bullish
on Cruise, and
reaffirmed a
forecast that
the unit could
generate $50
billion a year
in revenue
from automated
vehicle
services and
technology by
2030. .” Read more Hmmmm... Nice optimism. The
source of the
reality check
above comes
from GM's 6/30/222 10-Q. Start reading from page
41. then on
page 43:
[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="635" height="98" border="0">
Whoa! The only nice thing that can be imagined is by
assuming that
they've had
essentially
zero revenue,
the operating
costs have
"only" been
$800M for the
last 6
months. That
is non-small.
I'd like to suggest that the strategy of trying to create a profitable driverless mobility service for folks that already have 2 or more cars in their garage, have excellent public transit service or travel on expense accounts when wanting to go to between the airport and "downtown" may not be the wisest way to launch such a mobility service. There is little opportunity to be substantially better or even equivalent to what those potential customers already have. Little opportunity to get loyal and repeat customers. The focus to date has been too heavily weighted on getting the technology to work for folks who already have more mobility options than they know what to do with. Great for click-bait; challenging for the 10-Q. What must Waymo's 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
Capturing loyal and repeat customers is really tough when the competition is excellent and entrenched. While pricing can be high, volume is almost non-existent even with nominal pricing. Except for the novelty, the marketplace in the Chandlers and SFs is essentially non-existent. To date those markets have been quiet, at best. What must Waymo's 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
It astonishes me that to date none of the leading
driverless
companies have
spent any
money trying
to serve the
needs of folks
that don't own
cars, aren't
traveling
using someone
else's money,
nor have
access to a
good public
transit system
focused on
their mobility
needs.
These folks definitely can't pay as much for a ride
as those that
are being
chased by
Cruise &
Waymo, but
there are more
of them.
Moreover, its
almost trivial
to provide
them with a
mobility
option that is
substantially
better than
what they have
today for
many, if not
most, of their
daily
personTrips.
This is the market that we've found in New Jersey; in Trenton & Mercer County, Perth Amboy & Middlesex County and Patterson & Passaic County. We haven't even begun looking in Newark, Camden, Atlantic City and the rest of New Jersey.
The excuse seems to have been that it would be too
expensive to
deal with NJ's
bad weather,
even though,
we've made it
clear that New
jersey is not
interested in
a 365.25
days/yr.
mobility
solution.
We'd be more
than pleased
with a 350
days/yr.
operation.
New Jersey has
more than 350
good days a
year. We
aren't so
entitled that
we can't wait
for the
hurricane to
blow through,
the snow to be
shoveled or
the fog to
lift before we
go about our
normal
business. We
enjoy the
"snow day" at
home. We are
convinced that
is actually
easier and
cheaper to
capture
recurring and
loyal NJ
customers.
The rule-of-thumb for a
Trenton-MOVES
style
operation is:
a vehicle
needs to serve
at least 100
personTrips/day.
With slightly
better
ride-sharing
and
time-of-day
pricing, one
might be able
to get to 150
personTrips/day. To cover a fleet of 100 vehicles, ridership needs to
be about 10k
to 15k
personTrips/day.
This kind of
utilization
leads to per
personTrip
capitalization
costs of less
that
$1/personTrip
for vehicles
costing
upwards of
$150k @
interest rates
upward of
7.5%. That is
to say, $1/personTrip readily covers the
vehicle
capital costs
even at
moderate
scales.
Given that trips on-average
are less than
five miles,
vehicle
operating
costs are less
than
$1/personTrip.
Management costs are largely
fixed. With
volume the per
personTrip
burden
decrease
enormously,
and can't be
more than
$0.50/personTrip.
Break-even fare is thus
roughly
$2.50/personTrip.
An average market fare of $3.50/personTrip delivers a profit of >$1.00/personTrip, >$100/vehicle-day.
A fleet of 100 vehicles delivers a profit >$10k/day, >$3.0M/yr. in the Trenton ODD serving 10k personTrips/day.
From where do these 10k personTrips/day materialize?
Essentially all the riders of NJ Transit rail would love a simple reliable convenient way to get to & from the train. By on-demand service within the community around the train station, loyalty upwards of 80% could be achieved for anyone wanting to go to NYC or within walking distance to any other NJ train station. For Trenton that represents a marketplace of 8,000 personTrips/day that currently drive to & from the station every day and those that currently don't use the train that would if it was easy and reliable to them to get to AND from the station, when they wanted to get to and from there. Half of the 10k would easily come from serving the Trenton Train Station.
Trenton Central HS has 1,800 students. More than 1,500 live more than a 10 minute walk to the TCHS. Truancy is proportional to how far a student has to walk to school. Trenton MOVES could readily serve 1,250 of these students every day. That's 1/4 of the needed 10k.
We only need another 2.5k personTrips and we haven't
even begun
dealing with
getting people
to & from
work in
Trenton,
doctors,
shopping
visiting
friends, etc.
needed by the
70% of Trenton
households who
have access to
one or zero
cars. 100
vehicles
serving 10k
personTrips/day
making
>3.0M/year
@ an average
fare of
$3.50/personTrip
is just the
start of a
profitable
business.
Employing 200
vehicles
costing at
most $100k at
interest rates
of less than
7.5% serving
150
personTrips/day
at fares of
$3.00/personTrip
makes way more
than $5M per
year.
Expanding Trenton MOVES throughout Mercer County
giving the
opportunity to
increase
average fare
(because of
the longer
personTrips)
to maybe
$5/personTrip
keeping
utilization @
150
personTrips/vehicle-day
of a fleet of
1,000 vehicles
and doing a
little better
on interest
rates and cap
costs can lead
to profits of
>$10M/year
for
Trenton/Mercer
MOVES. There
are at least
10
replications
of
Trenton/Mercer
MOVES that
could be done
in NJ by 2030
utilizing a
fleet of at
least 10,000
vehicles
leading to a
profit of
>$100M/year.
This kind of success leads to having many more people
leave their
cars at home
and
frequenting
NJ-MOVES as
their mobility
system. This
could lead to
a NJ-Moves
fleet of
>100,000
vehicles is
generating a
profit of
>$1B.
Reuters,
July 16,
"China's
search engine
giant Baidu
Inc on
Thursday
unveiled its
new autonomous
vehicle (AV)
with a
detachable
steering
wheel, with
plans to put
it to use for
its robotaxi
service in
China next
year.
Cost per unit
will drop to
250,000 yuan ($37,031.55)
for the new
model,
compared with
480,000 yuan
for the
previous
generation,
Baidu said in
a statement.
“This massive
cost reduction
will enable us
to deploy tens
of thousands
of AVs across
China,"
Baidu's chief
executive
Robin Li said
at the Baidu
World
conference.
"We are moving
towards a
future where
taking a
robotaxi will
be half the
cost of taking
a taxi today.” Read more Hmmmm... Really?? See video. Where do I buy 10 for immediate
delivery to
New Jersey
with option to
buy 100 more
by EoY'22 and
1st inline to
buy 1,000 more
by EoY'23. [log in to unmask]" moz-do-not-send="true">eMail me!!!
While the design is certainly not ideal for "Trenton MOVES" or "Perth Amboy MOVES" they would be good enough to get started with addressing the "Sociology Challenges" of MOVES-style deployments. And the price is right if this isn't total click-bait. But... that is a really big if . 🙁 Alain
June
15, Press
release,
"Today, as
part of the
U.S.
Department of
Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage
innovation,
the National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration
published the initial round of data it has
collected
through its Standing General Order issued last year and
initial
accompanying
reports
summarizing
this data.
The SAE Level
2 advanced
driver
assistance
systems
summary report
is available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5
automated
driving
systems
summary report
is available here. Going forward, NHTSA will
release data
updates
monthly..."
Read more Hmmmm... This is a good
start;
however, as
NHTSA repeats
many times,
this is just a
start and
there are many
"data
limitations".
The most
severe may
well be the
possibility of
substantial "sampling bias", the most severe of which is
that each OEM
sourced the
reported data
very
differently.
That makes the
data between
OEMs
incomparable.
Also un reported is any measure that would enable a "crash rate" for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.
Finally, 392 crashes of "Level 2"
cars were
reported
during the
"10" month
period of July
2021 and May
15, 2022.
About 12 million vehicles are involved in traffic
crashes
every year
among the 283
million
vehicles that
operate in the
US. Assuming
any one
vehicle is
unlikely to be
involved in
more than one
crash per yer,
it means that
each vehicle,
on average is
involved in
12M/283M =
0.0424 crashes
per year.
Thus, if these
ADAS cars were
involved in
crashes at the
average rate,
and had their
ADAS on all
the time, the
500 vehicle
crashes per
year contained
in these data
would expect
to be
generated from
a fleet of
only about
11,800
vehicles (or
0.0042% of the
vehicles
("everything
being equal",
ADAS on all
the time.).
Consequently, either, ...
Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers
are not
startling.
What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents.
Maybe OtA
should be
mandated. At
minimum, the
VIN should
specify the
existence of
theses
capabilities.
Then normal
police
reportings can
begin to
"automatically"
access the "black box event recorders" (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA) that are in most cars today.
Unfortunately,
privacy concerns makes this not-easy. So
here we are.
It wont be
easy to do
much better,
but we should
continue to
try.
What the data do point out is that a substantial
number of the
crashes
involved the
rear ending of
a stationary
object. I
have pointed
out repeatedly
that the
source code of
these systems
explicitly
disregard
stationary
objects in the
lane ahead.
Justifying
this explicit
process is
that current
sensors incur
unacceptable
false
positives when
trying to
determine if
sufficient
headroom
exists under
detected
stationary
object in the
lane ahead.
Thus, to avoid
braking in
response to
these rare
false
positives,
stationary
objects in the
lane ahead are
all assumed to
be "pass
under-able".
As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects
in the lane
ahead. These
are readily
sensed and
precisely
located
ahead.
Readily sensed
are
overpasses,
signs, tree
canopies,
traffic
lights, ...
all of which
can usually be
readily passed
under. (As
can vehicles
ahead that
come to rest
in
vehicle-follower
mode. These
are not
disregarded
because one is
in
vehicle-follower
mode.)
But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one
encounters a
stationary
object ahead,
I believe,
most, if not
all "Level 2"
systems
disregard that
object and
assume the car
can pass
underneath.
So if you are
in vehicle
leader mode
and come over
the crest of a
hill to be
confronted
with a stopped
object ahead,
your system
will disregard
that object.
Similarly, if
the vehicle
that you are
following
changes lanes
forcing you to
become a
leader, any
stationary
object ahead
will be
disregarded.
Alain
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
A.
Nathans, May
11, "When
Serena Ren
presented her
senior thesis
on using
machine
learning for
art appraisals
last month,
she hoped to
see her
friend, Joyce
Luo, present
her thesis on
fighting
opioid
addiction. But
since all
students in
the Department
of Operations
Research and
Financial
Engineering
present their
theses in
parallel
sessions, this
was
impossible.
But on May 4,
Ren and Luo
finally got to
see each
other’s
presentations
in a classroom
in Sherrerd
Hall, thanks
to the
department’s
first-ever
event in which
selected
students
present their
thesis work to
the whole
department....
" Read more Hmmmm... I'm so proud! Hopefully we'll be able to
release the
video so you
can enjoy.
Keep trying
the link:
PAVE,
May 4,
"Autonomous
vehicle
technologies
offer
incredible
potential:
they could
make our
highways
safer, they
could offer
new mobility
options for
people who
can’t drive,
and they could
help create a
more equitable
transportation
system for
those who are
not
well-served by
our current
system.
During the
month of May,
we are
highlighting
places where
AVs are in use
— today —
being
deployed,
tested, and
used for
public good.
We want to
look at
examples of
the technology
being used to
serve food
deserts, to
expand access
to rural
communities,
to offer new
accessibility
options, and
more.
We are
starting with
the Trenton
MOVES
initiative,
which is the
first
large-scale
urban transit
system in
America based
entirely on
self-driving
shuttles. The
shuttles,
which carry
four to eight
passengers,
serve
traditionally
underserved
Trenton
neighborhoods,
where 70% of
households
have limited
access to a
single
automobile, or
no access at
all. Our
panelists will
detail the
program,
describing how
it works, the
results it has
achieved, and
their vision
for the
future......"
Read more Hmmmm...
Very nice. Be
sure to watch video 😁 and see ZoomCast 267 Alain
P. Keller, April 29, "New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton....." Read more Hmmmm... Very nice. 😁 AlainSaturday, April 23, 2022
H.
Jin, April 6,
"Electric
carmaker Tesla
(TSLA.O) will
make a
"dedicated"
self-driving
taxi that will
"look
futuristic,"
Chief
Executive Elon
Musk said on
Thursday,
without giving
a timeframe.
The
50-year-old
billionaire,
wearing a
black cowboy
hat and
sunglasses,
made the
comments at
the opening of
Tesla's $1.1
billion
factory in
Texas, which
is home to its
new
headquarters.
"Massive
scale.
Full
self-driving.
There's going
to be a
dedicated
robotaxi,"
Musk told a
large crowd at
the
factory...." Read more
Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to "Massive Scale" scale and Massive Profitability.
RoboTaxis' evolution
to "Massive Scale" is
turning out to
be different.
Starting with
rich
WesternStaters
doesn't seem
to be working
sociologically
for Waymo.
The rides
offered seem
to be taken
for
entertainment
and side-show
purposes
rather than
valued
enablers of
enhanced
quality of
life. Nice
for selfies,
but not much
more.
Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. "Safe" is "safe", but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that's where they've already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.
For those that don't have their
own car for
whatever
reason (can't
drive, don't
want to, too
young, too
old, and/or
too poor)
their mobility
options are
simply
dreadful.
Absolutely
trivial for an
aTaxi service
to be viewed
as the quality
winner and
used to
provide
customer
accessibility,
improved
quality of
life,
endearment,
respect, love,
appreciation,
loyalty, and
use.
Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;
These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.
They'll be so appreciative and you
will have
provided the
spark that
will allow
your aTaxis
to go
viral! You'll
quickly serve
Mercer county,
Newark,
Camden,
Atlantic City,
New Brunswick,
Toms River,
Perth Amboy,
all of New
Jersey,
Eastern
Pennsylvania,
New York City
(except
Manhattan),
Long Island,
.....
That's the natural road to "Massive Scale" for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.
"Massive Scale" starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain
The Waymo
Team, March
30, "This
morning in San
Francisco, a
fully
autonomous
all-electric
Jaguar I-PACE,
with no human
driver behind
the wheel,
picked up a
Waymo engineer
to get their
morning coffee
and go to
work. Since
sharing that
we were ready
to take the
next step and
begin testing
fully
autonomous
operations in
the city,
we’ve begun
fully
autonomous
rides with our
San Francisco
employees.
They now join
the thousands
of Waymo One
riders we’ve
been serving
in Arizona,
making fully
autonomous
driving
technology
part of their
daily
lives...." Read more Hmmmm... Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and
fundamental
expression of
confidence in
your
technology.
Please come to
New Jersey
where we are
certain that
you can
actually
delier "Safe,
Equitable,
Affordable,
Sustainable,
HIgh-quality
Mobility" that
will
substantially
improve the
quality-of-life
of many by
transforming
affordable
housing into
affordable
living and
more.
K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..." Read more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originally announced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.
The
event will
take place at
11:00 a.m.
on
Wednesday,
Feb. 9, 2022
in the Trenton
Central High
School
auditorium.
Members of the
press will be
invited to
attend. ...."
Read more Hmmmm... Another real milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed
February 25,
with 20
submittals.
Next comes the 5thPrinceton
SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton &
Trenton, NJ.
The Summit
will be
focused on
enabling
Trentonians to
get a first
glimpse at
technology and
mobility
systems that
can deliver
Trenton MOVES'
mobility
objectives
(Safety,
Equity,
Affordability,
Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and
mobility
companies to
learn the
market
opportunities
available to
be captured in
Trenton, the
rest of Mercer
County, and
throughout New
Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. 😁 Alain
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