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http://smartdrivingcar.com/5.30-HouseSelf-090817
30th edition of the 5th year of SmartDrivingCars

Friday, September 8, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> CONGRESS UNITES (GASP) TO SPREAD SELF-DRIVING CARS ACROSS AMERICA

A. Marshal, Sept 7, "ON WEDNESDAY, THE House of Representatives did something that’s woefully uncommon these days: It passed a bill with bipartisan support. The bill, called the SELF DRIVE (Safely Ensuring Lives, Future Deployment and Research In Vehicle Evolution) Act (H.R. 3388), lays out a basic federal framework for autonomous vehicle regulation, signaling that federal lawmakers are finally ready to think seriously about self-driving cars and what they mean for the future of the country.... Lawmakers, for their part, hope the legislation strikes a balance between allowing tech and car companies to test whatever, wherever, and giving them enough leeway to try stuff out, collect some data, and determine the best way to operate vehicles without a driver....
First, the legislation works out a way for the federal government’s rules to trump state laws and rules. It officially gives the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration power to regulate vehicle design, construction, and performance—the way it does with, well, normal cars. States still have authority over vehicle registration and licensing, but they’ll have a harder time making demands about what goes on inside the car....
Second, the legislation requires autonomous vehicle manufacturers be deliberate about the way they share their passengers’ data....
Finally, the legislation makes it a lot easier for self-driving cars to hit the road....
What’s Next?  Well, this is just the first half of this process. Now the Senate has to pass its own bill. Then both houses will work together to come up with compromise legislation that the president can sign...."  Read more Hmmmm... While not a high bar, this is likely to be the best thing Congress has done so far this year.  Putting the burden on NHTSA when it has so much to do with conventional cars may be just too much.  Since all of this, especially Driverless, is so radically new, it probably deserves a new 'Administration', a new entity, that has a clean sheet of paper with which to work this technology, much as trucks and airlines have with their own 'Administration'.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt=""> Self-Driving Cars Bill in Senate Veers Into Tricky Truck Debate

R. Beene, Sept 8, "...The staff draft bill from Senators John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, and Gary Peters, a Michigan Democrat, released on Friday included optional language that could extend it to all motor vehicles, a sign they are undecided about whether to include large commercial vehicles. Similar legislation passed by the House this week excluded vehicles weighing more than 10,000 pounds after facing pressure from labor unions....The International Brotherhood of Teamsters, the largest union for U.S. truck drivers, and other unions successfully lobbied to exclude commercial trucks from the House legislation, saying supplanting drivers could be unsafe and cost jobs...." Read more Hmmmm... Labor is COMPLETELY missing the point here.  This, the house bill and essentially all of the 'industry' (except maybe Waymo) are all about Self-driving and NOT Driverless.  Self-driving REQUIRES that a human driver be in the vehicle ready to take over control and save the day.  So it CAN'T eliminate any job.  Moreover, it vastly improves driver 'occupational safety', 'workplace environment' and possibly even extends allowable hours-of-service so as to increase take-home pay.  These are organized labor's 'bread & butter' values.  How could labor not be 110% behind this legislation for TRUCKS & BUSES???  'Driverless Class 8s' are decades in the future simply because there is so very little economic benefit, if any, to removing the driver.   The cargo in a 53 foot, 102 inch trailer is so valuable that it deserves and can easily afford a human driver/caretaker. 

Truck driving is a very challenging job.  Drivers need and deserve technological help to make their jobs safer and tolerable.  I'm amazed that organized labor would not be 110% behind this technology.  Alain
 

[log in to unmask]" alt=""> Speech at the Driving Future Platform in the European

Sept 5, "...So what are our next steps from here?    First, the platform of Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems will publish the final report of its second phase on 20 September. We expect to see C-ITS equipped vehicles on European roads by 2019. The Commission will also provide legal certainty for C-ITS deployment in 2018.

The GEAR 2030 conclusions (on 18 October) will result in a roadmap focusing on political, ethical and regulatory aspects to ensure an effective deployment of connected and automated vehicles in the years to come.

Soon after, we will publish the 2018-2019 Work Programme of Horizon 2020 where a whole chapter will be dedicated to automation...."  Read more Hmmmm... Some nice reports are coming it seems as if the Europe Commission hasn't gotten the memo  that 'Connected' is out and 'Autonmous' is in. 

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="39" width="51"> As Bike-Sharing Brings Out Bad Manners, China Asks, What’s Wrong With Us?

J. Hernandez, Sept 2, "...There are now more than 16 million shared bicycles on the road in China’s traffic-clogged cities, thanks to a fierce battle for market share among 70-plus companies backed by a total of more than $1 billion in financing. These start-ups have reshaped the urban landscape, putting bikes equipped with GPS and digital locks on almost every street corner in a way that Silicon Valley can only dream of.

But their popularity has been accompanied by a wave of misbehavior. Because the start-ups do not use fixed docking stations, riders abandon bicycles haphazardly along streets and public squares, snarling traffic and cluttering sidewalks. Thieves have taken them by the tens of thousands, for personal use or selling them for parts. Angry and mischievous vandals hang them in trees, bury them in construction sites and throw them into lakes and rivers...."  Read more Hmmmm... Nothing is easy.  Without active 'empty vehicle management' all of the vehicles will eventually end up pilled up in locations where 'not enough' users want to fetch them.  Demand is never symmetric, nor is it cyclic with any kind or reasonable periodicity!  So the above shouldn't be surprising anyone.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="46" width="49"> Motor Vehicle Deaths Drop Slightly in First Half of 2017 But Remain 8% Higher Than Same Period Two Years Ago

Aug 15, " Preliminary estimates from the National Safety Council indicate motor vehicle deaths in the first six months of 2017 are 1% lower than they were during the same six-month period in 2016. However, the country is fresh off the steepest estimated two-year increase in motor vehicle deaths since 1964, and it is too early to conclude whether the upward trend is over. The estimated deaths during the first six months of 2017 still are 8% higher than the 2015 six-month estimates, and the final six months of the calendar year – July to December – tend to be deadlier than the first six...." Read more Hmmmm... Not good!   Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="19" width="131"> Denver hopes 300 new charging stations will accelerate switch to electric cars

B. Finley, Aug 16, "...City officials on Wednesday said 300 charging stations for electric vehicles will be set up around metro Denver over the next two years. They’re also looking at changes in the city building code to encourage installation of more charging stations near proliferating apartments and condos.

Lawsuit settlement money paid by Volkswagen after the diesel emissions test scandal will help fund Denver’s effort.  Great use of that money

Colorado residents have registered more than 10,000 plug-in vehicles, up from 1,200 four years ago. Nearly 2 percent of new vehicles sold in the state are plug-ins, We are still at the beginning...There are at least 35 types of electric vehicles listed for purchase this summer, up from three in 2012. ...they are advocating for charging at apartment buildings, grocery stores, office towers, gas stations, parks, shops, parking meters and along major transit corridors, Hmmmm... Why 'transit corridors', to help yet another competitor to transit??? ...  The best rapid-charging stations, which can fully revive a dead battery in 30 minutes, cost around $100,000..."  Read more  Hmmmm... This remains one of several Achilles' Heels of PEVs (batteries and road fees being the others). Takes 10x time to 'fill up' to get less than half the range.  If PEVs replace half of the fleet we wont need half of the existing gas pumps but for each gas pump we don't need we'll need 10x charging station.  Oh, but we'll all charge at home in our garages.  (What happens to all of the junk that's stored our garages while leaving our cars in the driveway.  Oh, but that's just me.  Sorry!) Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> GOOGLE'S NEW STREET VIEW CAMERAS WILL HELP ALGORITHMS INDEX THE REAL WORLD

T. Simonite, Sept 5, "... Higher quality images coming from the new hardware now atop Google’s Street View vehicles will allow those systems to extract information like that more reliably. “From a machine learning perspective, everything gets better,” says Andrew Lookingbill, an engineer working on the technology. It will also help his team’s efforts to build new software even better at understanding the world. They’re thinking about trying to automatically recognize different types of business from their appearance and reading finer-grained information like opening hours signs...." Read more Hmmmm... Enormous opportunity to automatically index and expand the affordances of locations.   Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt=""> Siemens buys self-driving software specialist Tass

Staff, Aug 30, "German industrial group Siemens has agreed to buy Dutch self-driving software specialist Tass International for an undisclosed sum to strengthen its automotive business, it said on Wednesday.

Tass makes software that can simulate complex traffic scenarios, validate autonomous driving and advanced driver assistance systems and replicate the impact of a car crash on a human body... "  Read more Hmmmm... Interesting.  Is Siemens getting back into the Auto Supplier business?
Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Something to Call My Own

B. Rush & B. Schlecter, Aug '17, "... the challenges of ride-sharing in an autonomous future. ..Frequent assertions that car owners will easily abandon ownership and become robo-vehicle ride buyers are largely wishful thinking... How much travelers tend toward increased vehicle ownership and how much toward car-and ride- sharing depends at least as much on human behavioral preferences and habit as on pure economic considerations....

Two great myths surround vehicle automation.  The first is that technology will drive traffic congestion out of our transport system,  This cannot happen soon for four reasons...

The second great driverless-vehicle myth is that "no one will own a car"... Read more Hmmmm... Well written 'other' views.  It won't be easy, and of course, it won't be everywhere (Amazon hasn't eliminated every brick&mortar store, but is certainly has changed things.)  We had reached a point where essentially everyone in the family needed their own car because we had located our families in places in which one needed one's own car to get anywhere and everybody was going different places at different times and there were no alternatives.  Alternatives seem to be appearing and are becoming known (car-sharing, Uber/Lyft, Apps....).   It used to be that many students brought cars to campus every year.  Not so much anymore.  Car-sharing, Uber/Lyft, Apps... have changed that.  Households have begun to not need multi-cars.  So at least the 2nd derivative of CarOwnership(t) has changed sign and maybe even the 1st.  Unfortunately the RideSharing needle hasn't begun to move.  It needs Driverless is a Necessary Condition which has yet to even begin to emerge. 

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="30" width="91"> Autonomous Vehicles

EDGE, 2017, "For investors, the rise of autonomous vehicles has the potential to impact industries as far afield as health care, insurance, internet and infrastructure. ... The biggest challenge facing the adoption of autonomous vehicles today is achieving the requisite level of accuracy required to drive safely on public roads in mixed traffic. The decision-making and driving capability of autonomous vehicles need to be practically flawless. Ensuring this high standard is met requires training the autonomous
vehicle with massive amounts of data that takes into account any possible situation it may encounter and extensive safety testing to validate that the autonomous vehicle performs as expected at all times. Once the safety of the systems is established, another large hurdle to adoption will be the regulatory environment. Governments and regulatory bodies need to develop frameworks to permit the operation of autonomous vehicles on public streets and highways...." Read more Hmmmm... Pretty fundamental.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="20" width="120">Pod Traveling at 201 MPH Wins Elon Musk's Hyperloop Competition

S. Pappas, Aug 28, "A team of students from Germany sent a carbon-plastic pod whizzing through a tube at 201 mph (324 km/h) last weekend, securing the top spot in Elon Musk's second Hyperloop competition.  Musk,... envisions as a series of underground vacuum tubes through which transportation pods levitated by air would zoom at nearly the speed of sound.

In January, SpaceX held its first Hyperloop Competition for students to test prototypes of pods. The winning team, WARR Hyperloop from the Technical University of Munich, again took top prize in the second Hyperloop Pod Competition, which was held between Aug. 25 and 27. The team's pod was one of only three that met the technical criteria for testing inside the 0.8-mile (1.28 km) tube at SpaceX headquarters in Hawthorne, California....Read more Hmmmm... And see the video.  Still hard to see how this beats conventional airplanes in anything but a niche market, if even such a market even exists.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Video: Watch a Self-Driving Car be Tested for Highway Driving

P. Brown, Sept 6, "AImotive and Groupe PSA are partnering to test a new highway pilot program to deliver level 4 autonomous driving capabilities on highways at speeds of more than 80 miles per hour. The project will deploy artificial intelligence functionalities such as adaptive cruise control, fully automated lane change, autonomous take-over and collision avoidance. The goal is to demonstrate how AI can be used for future autonomous highway driving at level 4.... Read more Hmmmm... See video in text.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Via raises $250M led by Daimler to bring its carpooling technology to Europe

I. Lunden, Sept 4, "...Via — which has developed a shuttle-based carpooling service that it offers directly in the U.S. for a flat-rate starting at $5, as well as through platform partnerships with other transportation providers — has raised what it is describing as a “strategic investment” led by German automaker Daimler to expand into Europe as well as to work more closely on other business opportunities together. Alongside this, Daimler’s Mercedes Benz division is investing $50 million into a joint venture with the startup. The full amount of funding has not been disclosed, but we understand from a source very close to the deal that it is $250 million.

The sizeable funding underscores ongoing momentum in the transportation industry to build more tech-based solutions, updating outmoded legacy infrastructure with more efficient services that can meet the new demand for on-demand...."  Read more Hmmmm... Wow!  Dynamic ridesharing has come a long way.  The more scale the more effective, so it is nice to see this enthusiasm at trying to achieve cross-over scale.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Tesla battery predicted to have 80% capacity after 840,000 km (521,000 mi)

M. D'angelo, Sept 4, "An updated battery study based on crowdsourced data from Model S and Model X owners suggests that Tesla’s battery pack will still have 80% capacity after reaching 840,000 kilometers (521,952 miles), or nearly 1 million kilometers driven.  An online spreadsheet created by Matteo and maintained by Merijn Coumans via the Dutch-Belgium Tesla Forum tracks battery degradation being experienced by roughly 900 Tesla drivers from around the world..." Read more Hmmmm... This is  actually very good because these batteries are very expensive.  Alain

Some other thoughts that deserve your attention

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> 2017 Solar Eclipse Images

R. Vanderbei, Sept 2, Solar eclipse images taken by my colleague Bob Vanderbei in Salem OR, Sept 21, 2017 See Images  Hmmmm... Very nice!!! I could not see flares with my naked eyes, but the corona was really impressive.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> FOR SUPERPOWERS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FUELS NEW GLOBAL ARMS RACE

T. Simonite, Sept. 8, "FOR MANY RUSSIAN students, the academic year started last Friday with tips on planetary domination from President Vladimir Putin:  “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia but for all humankind,” he said, via live video beamed to 16,000 selected schools. “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” Putin’s advice is the latest sign of an intensifying race among Russia, China, and the US to accumulate military power based on artificial intelligence...

Algorithms good at searching holiday photos can be repurposed to scour spy satellite imagery, for example, while the control software needed for an autonomous minivan is much like that required for a driverless tank. ..."    Read more Hmmmm... Yup! Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Papers submitted under review for presentation at the 97th Annual Meeting of the TRB and for publication in Transportation Research Record (2018) co-authored by K. Kockelman:

Americans Plans for Acquiring & Using Electric, Shared & Self-Driving Vehicles- Neil Quarles & Kara Kockelman

Fleet Performance & Cost Evaluation of a Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicle (SAEV) Fleet: A Case Study for Austin, Texas - Ben Loeb & Kara Kockelman.

What Will Autonomous Trucking Do to U.S. Trade Flows? Application of the Random-Utility-Based Multi-Regional Input-Output Model - Yantao Huang & Kara Kockelman.

Analyzing the Dynamic Ride-Sharing Potential for Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleets using Cellphone Data from Orlando, Florida - Krishna Murthy Gurumurthy & Kara Kockelman.

Deeper Understanding of Americans Autonomous Vehicle Preferences: Questions on Long-Distance Travel, Ride-Sharing, Privacy, & Crash Ethics - Krishna Murthy Gurumurthy, Kara Kockelman, & Jeffrey (Hyungseung) Hahm. 

Anticipating Long-Distance Travel Shifts due to Self-Driving Vehicles - Ken Perrine, Kara Kockelman & Yantao Huang.

 

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/



Half-baked stuff that probably doesn't deserve your time

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="39" width="50"> Lilium, a Flying Car St art-up, Raises $90 Million

M. Merced, Sept 5, "As interest in flying cars continues to swell, one of the most prominent start-ups working on the technology has gained a big new backer.  Lilium Aviation, a German company that held a successful test flight of the Eagle, its two-seat electric jet at their Munich base this year, announced on Tuesday that it has raised $90 million in a new round of financing...."  Read more Hmmmm... I guess there is some opportunity as replacements to some helicopters.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt=""> I'm Not Sold on Self-Driving Cars

M. Buchanan, Sept 8, "They could actually be less safe and more troublesome..."  Read more Hmmmm... If true, then no one will be selling anything, so you won't need to worry about being 'Sold' on anything.  If they are more safe and less troublesome, then what's your positions???  Now that would make this article worth while reading.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Jaguar's Future-Type concept plots autonomous course to 2040 and beyond

C. Weiss, Sept 8, " very different kind of Jaguar "F" Type, the all-new Future-Type concept leaps ahead a few decades, exploring what personal luxury transportation might look like in and beyond 2040. The new concept molds a sleek, self-guiding electric pod around the intelligent Sayer steering wheel previewed earlier this week. In Jaguar's greater vision, artificial intelligence coordinates your everyday transportation needs and takes care of many other daily tasks at the sound of your voice...The narrow body is optimized for tight urban streets and parking decks."  Read more Hmmmm... Very half baked.  See video.  Tight urban streets yet depicted on wide-open x-urban freeway.  'parking deck'  Not a chance, Sorry! Alain


C'mon Man!  (These folks didn't get/read the memo)


Calendar of Upcoming Events:

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Nov 8-10
Las Vegas, NV
Smart City, Smart Transit, Smart Energy

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">
2nd Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
May 16 & 17, 2018
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
Save the Date

Recent Highlights of:

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Friday, September 1, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="21" width="133"> Automated Vehicles: Are We Moving Too Fast or Too Slow?

M. Sena, Sept, '17, "ARE WE MOVING too fast to get ‘No Humans Needed’ automated vehicles onto our roads, or are we dragging our feet? The Move Faster lobby says every day that passes without robots driving all our cars, close to a million people die needlessly in traffic accidents.  Here are the numbers, and they are grim:...

The Move Slower camp says that we don’t really know for sure that robots are better drivers than humans, we are not yet certain what changes will be required to the transport infrastructure to accommodate a mix of human and robot-driven vehicles and, perhaps most importantly, turning over our cars, trucks and buses to robots may be just another nail in the human race’s coffin....

... I am arguing in favor of caution...." Read more Hmmmm... First, as I have pointed out many times, the safety objective can be fully obtained with Safe-driving (automated collision avoidance and lane keeping) and doesn't need Self-driving (automated with a ready and able driver just waiting to "save the day" and take control and drive conventionally)  or Driverless (no one is there to take control and/or there are no controls available to drive conventionally).  The mobility objective (leveling the mobility 'playing field' (affordable on-demand ubiquitous mobility) for everyone (including goods) requires Driverless (is not addressed by Safe- or Self-driving vehicles).  With respect to safety, there can be no support for anything more than politically-correct caution because there is no evidence to date that any of the automated collision avoidance systems and automated lane centering systems cause any crashes.  So it should be ' full steam ahead'!

With respect to our desire to address the mobility objective, which requires Driverless, extreme caution is where we are (we are still at 'absolute zero') and the enormity of the undertaking is so large that extreme caution is all that is possible.   To my knowledge, we have had only one ride (by Waymo) that was 'Driverless in mixed traffic on an unaltered/unprepared public street'. (and that ride was likely (and appropriately) monitored remotely by an army of Waymo engineers ready to take over if anything bad or challenging was about to happen. So while we have logged 'the first VMT (vehicle mile traveled)',  we aren't yet to even two decimal places of VMT (100th VMT).  Caution is what we have been doing and is the only thing that we can do.  But we must get on with it else we make zero dent in the mobility objective.  (Self-driving is all about enhancing the comfort and convenience of the conventional private automobile and enhancing the existing legacy auto industry.  While it claims, it doesn't deserve, the safety kudos and it exacerbates rather than soothe the mobility gap between the haves and have-nots.).   See also the other articles in this issue of The Dispatcher.   Alain

Friday, August 25, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Inside Waymo's Secret World for Training Self-Driving Cars

A. Madrigal, aUG 23, " a corner of Alphabet’s campus, there is a team working on a piece of software that may be the key to self-driving cars. No journalist has ever seen it in action until now. They call it Carcraft, after the popular game World of Warcraft....Hmmmm...  Waymo's naming should have been a play of GTA V such as "Maximus Furtum IV". Oh, but that's our version of this.   :-) Alain
 
...Scenarios like this form the base for the company’s powerful simulation apparatus. “The vast majority of work done—new feature work—is motivated by stuff seen in simulation,” Stout tells me. This is the tool that’s accelerated the development of autonomous vehicles at Waymo...
...Collectively, they now drive 8 million miles per day in the virtual world. In 2016, they logged 2.5 billion virtual miles...
...In that virtual space, they can unhitch from the limits of real life and create thousands of variations of any single scenario, and then run a digital car through all of them....
...Not surprisingly, the hardest thing to simulate is the behavior of the other people. It’s like the old parental saw: “I’m not worried about you driving. I’m worried about the other people on the road.”...
...They call it “fuzzing,” and in this case, there are 800 scenarios generated by this four-way stop. It creates a beautiful, lacy chart—and engineers can go in and see how different combinations of variables change the path that the car would decide to take....
...“That iteration cycle is tremendously important to us and all the work we’ve done on simulation allows us to shrink it dramatically,” Dolgov told me. “The cycle that would take us weeks in the early days of the program now is on the order of minutes.”...
...The power is that they mirror the real world in the ways that are significant to the self-driving car and allow it to get billions more miles than physical testing would allow. For the driving software running the simulation, it is not like making decisions out there in the real world. It is the same as making decisions out there in the real world..."  Read more Hmmmm... Excellent!! However, the description focuses on the 'testing' side.  What about the 'training' side?  Not much divulged here.   Alain

Monday, August 21, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="39" width="50"> Driverless-Car Outlook Shifts as Intel Takes Over Mobileye

E. Boudette, Aug 8, "...Mobileye will remain based in Israel, and its co-founder Amnon Shashua will head all of Intel’s autonomous-vehicle efforts. The other founder, Ziv Aviram, is retiring from Mobileye to focus on another company he started, OrCam, which makes artificial-vision devices that allow the visually impaired to understand text and identify objects..." Read more Hmmmm...  Will Intel really not screw this up?   Alain

Monday, August 7, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">Cadillac’s Super Cruise ‘autopilot’ is ready for the expressway

M Burns, Aug 3, "Cadillac is about to start selling vehicles with an autonomous driving mode ...Once the light bar on top of the steering wheel turns green, the driver can let go...

“Wait for the green light and let go,” the Cadillac engineer instructed. That’s it. The car was driving itself. I, the person behind the steering wheel, was no longer the driver. Cadillac’s Super Cruise system was driving.  The 2018 Cadillac CT6 sped along US-23 under the direction of Super Cruise. Traffic was light and the weather was perfect. The system held the Cadillac sedan in lane and responded appropriately to traffic. I spent an hour on the expressway and touched the steering wheel and pedals only a few times.  Super Cruise made the drive boring. I think that’s the point....

When active, Super Cruise controls the steering and speed, but again, only on an expressway. This is done through on board sensors and using GPS and mapping data. GM employed GeoDigital, a startup in GM Venture’s portfolio, to map 160,000 miles of expressways in the U.S. and Canada. The car company then used Super Cruise-equipped vehicles to test each mile.

Cadillac’s system also lacks several autonomous features found on Autopilot including the ability to pull the car out of a garage and change lanes by using the turn signals. Hmmmm...  fluff features with little value.

Super Cruise’s IR sensors tracks eye location and head movements. As long as the driver looks at the road every seven to 20 seconds, the system works as expected.  Hmmmm... Fantastic!

General Motors will have to rely on independently owned dealerships to correctly position this product and train buyers on its capabilities. Hmmmm... Yup!

For better or worse, Super Cruise is built into the CT6 like a standard system and not something a driver must use every time they’re on an expressway. This should help timid buyers.  Super Cruise feels like a feature ready for the masses. The system is deeply integrated into the vehicle and using it is akin to using cruise control or turning on the lights. There’s a button for Super Cruise on the steering wheel. Press the button when the system is available and it works. It’s that easy to turn a driver into a passenger. Read more Hmmmm...  Over the air updates?  See also Motor Trend's view: "... a stand-alone option (as yet unpriced) on CT6 models with the premium luxury trim package and as standard equipment on top Platinum models (the price of which went up $500 for 2018, if that’s any indication)...."  Finally, I guess that I'll have to go test drive one.  Alain

Monday, July 31, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="21" width="133"> What the World and Transport May Be Like in 2030

M. Sena, Vol 4, issue 9, "UNCERTAINTY IS TROUBLING for businesses, individuals and governments....  In one way or another, all businesses, including and especially transport, are completely reliant on four macro factors:.. I'd add one more: where are children learn and play .... A United Nations study projects world population to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, up from 7.5 billion today, driven by growth in developing countries...India will have traded places with China as the world’s most populous country in around seven years...So the large bulk of those additional one billion inhabitants of the planet by 2030 will be looking for places to live in Mumbai, not in Madrid. The takeaway from this is that the so-called ‘developed’ countries, with a few notable exceptions, are either losing population due to not producing enough children or seeing their populations staying basically stable.  In 2030, Tokyo will still be the most populated city with an estimated population of 37.2 million.
Delhi will be in second place with 36.1 million, up from 3.5 million in 1970! (How has it coped?) Shanghai will be in third place and New York/Newark will have dropped off the top ten list. But what will it be like to live in these cities? The Economist Intelligence Unit ranks cities as the most and least liveable. ... It ranked Melbourne, Australia as number one, ... Melbourne’s density is 460 persons per km2 compared to 6,158/km2 for Tokyo and 2,059/km2 for Shanghai.... None of the most liveable cities is among the top ten places where venture capitalists have been placing their money bets during the past year....These four city regions are ranked below 30th place on the EIU Liveability Index. In other words, they may be successful, but not that liveable... (in US) 50% live in rural or less urban areas occupying more than 90% of the land area. Is there any wonder why over 50% of the vehicles sold in the U.S. are not passenger cars but SUVs and pick-up trucks?...If everyone who lived in the dense urban areas stopped buying cars, there would still be over 50% of the population who would continue to be car purchasers.

Can we conclude from this that the exodus from city regions to the suburbs of both jobs and families has now stopped and central cities once again will be where people live and work? No, not unless people will be willing to give up everything they have come to value in terms of living standards and will accept being packed into sardine can-sized apartments stacked a mile high.... Living in a central city in the most desirable neighborhoods will continue to be the privilege of the wealthy and very wealthy...They also have homes and dachas in the Hamptons, Vinyard and Vermont, else they couldn't stand it. ... When younger people build families and need more space, preferably with a yard, and that space is too expensive in the city, they find it further out...Visions of young professionals dashing around in robotic cars gobbling up mobility as a service are, to put it kindly, a bit fanciful. Read more  Hmmmm...I love it!!  So many good one-liners.   Alain

Monday, July 24, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Introducing Level 5 and Our Self-Driving Team

 L. Vincent, Lyft, "For a long time, we at Lyft have shared our plan to help end car ownership in order to usher in a transportation revolution that improves our communities and quality of life. To do so we need to build an ecosystem that offers a variety of ride types, including both rides with drivers as well as rides from self-driving vehicles...

This news builds on the announcement we made earlier this year, when we created the world’s first open self-driving platform. Lyft’s self-driving vehicles will operate on that network, alongside vehicles introduced by Lyft partners. In the years ahead, we will continue to bring the world’s leading automotive and technology companies onto this single platform to serve a nationwide passenger network. And together, we will continue to drive toward a single, shared objective: to build the world’s best transportation ecosystem.
To be clear, we aren’t thinking of our self-driving division as a side project. It’s core to our business. That’s why 10% of our engineers are already focused on developing self-driving technology — and we’ll continue to grow that team in the months ahead. Their efforts will be housed in a brand-new development facility in Palo Alto, which we are calling the Level 5 Engineering Center...

We believe Lyft is in the best position to demonstrate what a great overall user experience can be. Lyft is also uniquely positioned to build technology in collaboration with partners in a way that makes it possible to roll out self-driving cars at scale in the fastest, safest, most efficient way.
This is true for a few reasons. First, Lyft has significant scale, which enables us to rapidly train our self-driving system. Every day, there are over one million rides completed on our network in over 350 cities. This translates into tens of millions of miles on a daily basis...

Lyft will always operate a hybrid network, with rides from both human-driven and self-driving cars. When a passenger requests a ride that a self-driving car can complete, we may send one to complete the trip. If that person needs to go somewhere self-driving cars are unable to navigate, or their needs call for a different level of service, they will have a driver. But in either event, we’ll make sure everyone can get where they need to go. ..." Read more  Hmmmm...Luc, congratulations!  At least you're calling it "Level 5..." so that there is little doubt that you are focusing on "Driverless" and that what seems to be the auto industry's view of "Self-driving" doesn't cut it, which is why one gets the confused reporting in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette.  I agree that Lyft (and everyone else) will always need a hybrid fleet, serving rides using both "Driverless Cars" for trips that can so be served and human-driven  "Safe-driving Cars" for those trips that haven't been certified as capable of being served safely with "Driverless Cars".   The fundamental economic advantage of "Driverless Cars" (substantially lower labor cost per person trip served) fuels this investment initiative.  Moreover, its operational simplification enables it to scale such that once it becomes technologically achievable Lyft's share of the rides market will explode.  With "Driverless Cars" Lyft will achieve, in the words of Joseph Schumpeter“… [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Alain

Sunday, July 09, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">The Maturation of the Autonomous Vehicle Space

K. Pyle, July 14, "Reflecting upon the comments and insight from this week’s Automated Vehicle Symposium 2017, the automated vehicle space feels like the Video on Demand space did a couple of decades ago. The technology wizards are making great progress and its obvious the industry is maturing because there are multiple companies addressing both mainstream challenges, as well as corner cases. Still, like video on demand, technology will probably not be the biggest hurdle to autonomous vehicle adoption, but ease-of-use and trust in the technology will probably represent the biggest challenges...."  Read more  Hmmmm... A thoughtful reflection on the Symposium.  Thank you Ken.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Active Safety-Collision Warning Pilot in Washington State, IDEA Program Final Report

J. Lutin, May 19 "The Rosco/Mobileye Shield+ system is a collision avoidance warning system (CAWS) specifically designed for transit buses. This project involved field testing and evaluation of the CAWS in revenue service over a three-month period. The system provides alerts and warnings to the bus driver for the following conditions that could lead to a collision: 1) changing lanes without activating a turn signal (lane departure warning was disabled for this pilot), 2) exceeding posted speed limit, 3) monitoring headway with the vehicle leading the bus, 4) forward vehicle collision warning, and 5) pedestrian or cyclist collision warning in front of, or alongside the bus. Alerts and warnings are displayed to the driver by visual indicators located on the windshield and front pillars. Audible warnings are issued when collisions are imminent. ..."   Read more  Hmmmm... Very interesting.  This is the first substantive report of realities of retrofiring existing transit buses with active safety collision-warning technology.  Anyone in the public transit industry should be paying attention to this report.  This is the very beginning of actually implementing safety-oriented automated technology in transit buses and it was motivated and led by insurance (Jerry Spears & Al Hatten @ WSTIP + Mike Scrudato @ Munich Re). Insurance finally stepping up and leading. Alain

Sunday, June 25, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="53" width="51">NTSB Opens Docket on Tesla Crash

Press release, June 19, "As part of its ongoing investigation into the fatal 2016 highway crash involving a Tesla Model S and a tractor-semitrailer truck near Williston, Florida, the National Transportation Safety Board on Monday opened the accident docket, releasing more than 500 pages of information.

System performance data downloaded from the Tesla revealed that the driver was operating the car using automated vehicle control systems: Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer lane keeping systems.

The docket includes reports that cover various aspects of the investigation, including highway design, vehicle performance, human performance, and motor carrier factors. The crash reconstruction report, also included in the docket, provides a description of the crash sequence. The docket also includes interview transcripts and summaries, photographs, and other investigative material.  The docket contains only factual information collected by NTSB investigators; it does not provide analysis, findings, recommendations, or probable cause determinations. No conclusions about how or why the crash occurred should be drawn from the docket. Analysis, findings, recommendations, and probable cause determinations related to the crash will be issued by the Board at a later date.

The docket material is available at: https://go.usa.gov/xNvaE" Read more  Hmmmm... A few comments...
1.  Since lateral control (swerving) couldn't have avoided this crash (the truck is almost 70 ft long (6 lanes wide) stretching broadside across the highway) , it doesn't matter if Josh Brown ever had his hands on the steering wheel. That's totally irrelevant. 
2. 
Why didn't autobrake kick in when the tractor part of the tractor-trailer passed in front of the Tesla?
3. 
How fast was the truck going when it cut off the Tesla.  I couldn't find the answer in 500 pages.   
4.  With sight distances of greater than 1,000 feet, why didn't the truck driver see the Tesla?  Was it the drugs?
5.  This intersection invites "left-turn run-throughs" (no stop or yield and a 53 foot median and turn lane need to be crossed before one slips through a gap in two traffic lanes.  So you certainly roll into it, (plenty of room to stop if you see something coming) and if you don't see anything, you hit it.  If you're in the Tesla, you think you've been clearly seem, you expect the truck to stop, it doesn't, you can't believe it, BAM!  All in probably a second or so.
6.  The head injury description (Table 1 p2 of 3) certainly suggests that Joshua Brown was seated upright facing forward at impact.  The bilateral lacerations on the lower arm from the elbow to the wrist may indicate that he saw it coming in the last second and raised his arms in an attempt to protect his head.   The evidence reported doesn't seem to suggest he saw this early enough to bend toward the passenger seat and try to pass underneath. 
7. 
About 40 feet of tractor and trailer passed directly in front of the Tesla prior to impact.   Depending on how fast the truck was traveling, that takes some time.  Has NTSB run Virtual Reality simulations of various truck turn trajectories and analyzed what the truck driver and the Tesla driver could/should have seen?  Seems like a relatively simple thing to do.  We know what the Tesla was doing prior to the crash (going 74 mph straight down the road.) and we know where it hit the truck.  How fast the truck was traveling doesn't seem to be known.
8. Why wasn't there any video captured from the Tesla.  Didn't that version of the MobilEye system store the video; I guess not, :-( 
Anyway, lots to read in the 500 pages, but there is also a lot missing.  I'm not linking the many articles reporting on this because I disagree with many of their interpretations of the facts reported by NTSB.  
Please reach your own conclusions.   Alain

Monday, June 19, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="39" width="50"> Amazon Deal for Whole Foods Starts a Supermarket War

R. Abrams, June 16, "Shares of Walmart, Target, Kroger and Costco, the largest grocery retailers, all tumbled on Friday. And no wonder..  Grocery stores have spent the last several years fighting against online and overseas entrants. But now, with its $13.4 billion purchase of Whole Foods, Amazon has effectively started a supermarket war.  Armed with giant warehouses, shopper data, the latest technology and nearly endless funds — and now with Whole Foods’ hundreds of physical stores — Amazon is poised to reshape an $800 billion grocery market that is already undergoing many changes...."  Read more  Hmmmm... Since Jeff Bezos doesn't need to have you impulse buy on your walk through the store while you get a quart of milk, he simply has to get you click on organic milk and he'll present you with everything you absolutely can't checkout without.  All he then needs is to get all those impulse buys (and the quart of organic milk) to your home from the hundreds of physical stores.  That's where low speed driverless local delivery vans come in (operating initially in the early morning hours when the streets connecting those stores to our houses are completely empty and simply drop off everything you'll need for the day ahead in your "Amazon Box" that's replaced your 20th Century mailbox).  So in the end it will be Jeff Bezos'86 battling Eric Schmit'76 for deploying the first fleets of driverless vehicles sharing our neighborhood streets. If they should decide to join forces and have these vehicles providing mobility whenever anyone wants to travel and moving groceries and other goods the rest of the time, watch-out!!! Then everybody wins!! (except Walmart, Target, Kroger and Costco)  See also..Amazon and Whole Foods and Self-Driving Cars    Alain

Sunday, May 28, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">Rethinking Mobility: The 'pay-as-you-go' ca: Ride hailing, just the start

 S. Burgstaller, May 23,"The c.$7 tn global mobility market is speeding into the era of the “pay-as-you-go” car. Ride-hailing services such as Uber and Didi are pioneering a ‘cloud’ mobility system, which is using data to change
how the wealthiest cities move. In Rethinking Mobility, we model how the ride-hailing opportunity can grow to $285 bn by 2030, and is the precursor to a broader technological and social transformation.  We examine how the market might live up to the high valuations of its pioneers, why car sales may prove surprisingly resilient despite the change, and where automakers have a chance to transform their profitability as operators of fleets of autonomous cars...." Read more Hmmmm... Nice to see GoldMine Sachs finally weigh in.  The report is chock full of information and there is a lot here to absorb. 

The big impact will be if we ever get to Driverless without which you don't replace even one Uber driver.  
Without Driverless, the issue centers on the 8x penetration of hailing rides.  At 8x  only car rental and little else is effected.  At 80x it effects car ownership but there will not be enough gig workers to support it.  So it doesn't scale without Driverless.

With Driverless, then it is all about ridesharing as with elevators.  If it is as easy as elevators, then car ownership  diminishes greatly.

The report doesn't respect the enormous difference between Driverless and Non-driversless (Self-driving and Safe-Driving; Levels 0 -> 4).  It seems to  assumes Driverless, yet it does not deal with the likelihood that Driverless will be achieved and fails to realize/identify the enormous forces that may come to bear that will attempt to derail Driverless at all costs.  The strongest of which may well be the "GMs" of this world.  GMs are all about Self-driving which REQUIRES a driver ( thus consumer ownership) and perpetuates their 100 year old business model.  Driverless scales 'cloud mobility' beyond the '8x' limits of a gig economy and enables horizontal 'cloud mobility' to become as ubiquitous as the elevator is in vertical mobility.  Yes, there are still stair cases, and private 'cloud-mobility" elevators for the 0.01%, but the masses will just grin&share the on-demand 'cloud-mobility' elevators without a 2nd thought.  Driverless assuaged vertical mobility anxiety.
Driverless is the critical technological element that will assuage horizontal mobility anxiety and enable widespread horizontal 'cloud mobility'.

Communities may find, as tall buildings have found, that they really work best (even at all) if they accommodate shared 'cloud' mobility and provide it for 'free' simply because it is so effective in capturing the enhanced land values that are unlocked by such mobility.  We've always been able to walk up and down a couple of flights of stair, but once we were easily able to go (via on-demand 'cloud' mobility available 24x7x365) more than four or so, then the sky became the limit. Are similar horizontal land values waiting to be unlocked if they simply pick up the tab for that on-demand horizontal 'cloud' mobility?  If so, then the GMs of this world are in a heap of trouble.  Alain

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit

May 18, Enormously successful inaugural Summit starting with the Adam Jonas video and finishing with Fred Fishkin's live interview with Wm. C Ford III.  In between, serious engagement among over 150 leaders from Communities at the bleeding edge of deployment, Insurance struggling with how to properly promote the adoption of technology that may well force them to re-invent themselves and AI (Artificial Intelligence) and the various technologies that are rapidly advancing so that we can actually deliver the safety, environmental, mobility and quality of life opportunities envisioned by these “Ultimate Shared-Riding Machines”.

Save the Date for the 2nd Annual... May 16 & 17, 2018, Princeton NJ  Read Inaugural Program with links to Slides. Fishkin Interview of Summit Summary and Interview of Yann LeCunRead Inaugural Program with links to Slides. Hmmmm... Enormous thank you to all who participated.  Well done!  Alain

Sunday, May 14, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Exploring the Bear Case: Distracted Driving + ADAS = $7 Trillion of Used Values at Risk

A. Jonas, Feb 1 "A sharp rise in traffic death & rapid growth of semiautonomous tech as standard equipment can accelerate the obsolescence of used cars, with potentially negative implications for secondhand values, auto credit & SAAR. We see elevated auto credit risk & avoid used car exposure....
...One could reasonably argue that if a technology can save 10k or 20k lives and hundreds of thousands of injuries per year in the US it should be (1) affordable and (2) not be optional equipment. Contrary to this, we found the majority of models currently available either do not offer active safety features or offer them only as optional equipment at prohibitively high costs. Our key takeaways are summarized below:..." Read More Hmmmm... First, sorry that I just saw this excellent report.  On top of the enormous substance, this report doesn't mention that some/many of these systems don't work as well as they should.  Some don't brake if the the object ahead is stationary, others get confused with white back-lighting, others only apply the brake after the driver starts applying the brake and others only apply the brakes up to a 50% level.  Here we are trying to let drivers take hands of wheels and feet off pedals, yet we don't have Safe-driving Cars that actually work (...experiencing essentially no false positives or false negatives) .  Alain

Monday, May 8, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="24" width="156"> Walt Disney World plans to deploy driverless shuttles in Florida

Thursday, April 27, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="39" width="50"> Waymo to Offer Phoenix Area Access to Self-Driving Cars

Tuesday, April 17, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="32" width="84"> Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

D. Hall, Apr 17, "In the race to the autonomous revolution, developers have realized there aren’t enough hours in a day to clock the real-world miles needed to teach cars how to drive themselves. Which is why Grand Theft Auto V is in the mix.
The blockbuster video game is one of the simulation platforms researchers and engineers increasingly rely on to test and train the machines being primed to take control of the family sedan. Companies from Ford Motor Co. to Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo may boast about putting no-hands models on the market in three years, but there’s a lot still to learn about drilling algorithms in how to respond when, say, a mattress falls off a truck on the freeway....The idea isn’t that the highways and byways of the fictional city of Los Santos would ever be a substitute for bona fide asphalt. But the game “is the richest virtual environment that we could extract data from,” said Alain Kornhauser..."  Read More Hmmmm... Well...we have a slightly different view of history wrt to GTA5.  The 'Alain view' is that Chenyi Chen*16 independently started investigating the use of virtual environments as a source of Image - Affordances data sets to use as the training sets in a 'Direct Perception' approach to creating a self-driving algorithm.  Images of the road ahead are converted into the instantaneous geometry that is implied by those image.  An optimal controller then determines the the steering, brake and throttle values to best drive the car.  The critical element in that process are the Image - Affordances data sets which need to be pristine.  Chenyi demonstrated in his PhD dissertation , summarized in the ICCV2015 paper,  that by using the pristine Image - Affordances data sets from an open-source game TORCS one could have a virtual car drive a virtual race course without crashing.  More importantly, when tested on images from real driving situations, the computed affordances were close to correct.

This encouraged us to look for more appropriate virtual environments. For many reasons, including: "wouldn't it be amazing if 'Grand Theft Auto 5' actually generated some positive 'redeeming social value' by contributing to the development of algorithms that actually made cars safer; saving grief, injuries and lives".  Consequently, in the Fall of 2015, Artur Filipowicz'17 began to investigate using GTA5 to train Convolutional Neural Networks to perform some of the Direct Perception aspects of automated driving.  With Jeremiah Liu, he continued his efforts in this direction last summer which were presented at TRB in January.  Yesterday, he and Nyan Bhat'17 turned in their Senior Theses focused on this topic.

Indeed, GTA5 is a rich virtual environment that begins to efficiently and effective address the data needs of Deep Learning approaches to safe driving.    Alain

Monday, March 20, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="22" width="94"> Uber’s autonomous cars drove 20,354 miles and had to be taken over at every mile, according to documents

Friday, March 10, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="24" width="156"> Robot cars — with no human driver — could hit California roads next year

R. Mitchell, Mar 10, "California is back on the map as a state that’s serious about welcoming driverless cars.Truly driverless cars — vehicles with no human behind the wheel, and perhaps no steering wheel at all — are headed toward California streets and highways starting in 2018...
The regulations lay out “a clear path for future deployment of autonomous vehicles” in California, said Bernard Soriano, deputy director at the Department of Motor Vehicles...." Read more Hmmm... Congratulations Bernard!  This is fantastic news on the road to providing high-quality mobility for all.  It squarely addresses the fundamental need to efficiently re-position vehicles so that they can get to even those who can't drive.  This is a real turning point for automated vehicles from self-driving toys for the 1% to affordable, environmentally friendly mobility for everyone.  Alain

Friday, February 24, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="32" width="84"> Alphabet's Waymo Alleges Uber Stole Self-Driving Secrets

Friday, February 17, 2017

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="46" width="49"> Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2016 Estimated to be Highest in Nine Years

Press release, Feb. 15, "NSC offers insight into what drivers are doing and calls for immediate implementation of proven, life-saving measures...

With the upward trend showing no sign of subsiding, NSC is calling for immediate implementation of life-saving measures that would set the nation on a road to zero deaths:..." Read more  Hmmm..."Automated Collision Avoidance" or anything having to do with 'Safe-driving Cars' is not mentioned anywhere in the Press Release.  One of us is missing something very fundamental here!!  So depressing!!  :-(   Alain

Friday, January 27, 2017

[log in to unmask]" class="" height="50" width="44"> Serving the Nation's Personal Mobility Needs with the Casual Sharing of autonomousTaxis & Today's Urban Rail, Amtrak and Air Transport Systems

A. Kornhauser, Jan 14, "Orf467F16 Final Project Symposium quantifying implications of such a Nation-wide mobility system on Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO), energy, environment and congestion, including estimates of fleet size, needed empty vehicle repositioning, and ridership implications on existing rail transit systems (west, east, NYC) and Amtrak of a system that would efficiently and effectively perform their '1st mile'/'last-mile' mobility needs. Read more  Hmmm... Now linked are 1st Drafts of the chapters and the powerPoint summaries of these elements.  Final Report should be available by early February.  The major finding is, nationwide there exists sufficient casual ridesharing potential that a well--managed  Nationwide Fleet of about 30M aTaxis (in conjunction with the existing air, Amtrak and Urban fixed-rail systems)  could serve the vehicular mobility needs of the whole nation with VMT 40% less than today's automobiles while providing a Level-of-Service (LoS) largely equivalent and in many ways superior than is delivered by the personal automobile today.  Also interesting are the findings as to the substantial increased patronage opportunities available to Amtrak and each of the fixed rail transit systems around the country because the aTaxis solve the '1st and last mile' problem.  While all of this is extremely good news, the challenging news is that since all of these fixed rail systems currently lose money on each passenger served, the additional patronage would likely mean that they'll lose even more money in the future. :-(  Alain 

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="36" width="38">ODI (Office of Defects Investigation) Findings on Tesla AEB & AutoPilot

(Above link should work) Jan 19, "... Summary: ...     NHTSA’s examination did not identify any defects in the design or performance of the AEB or Autopilot  systems of the subject vehicles nor any incidents in which the systems did not perform as designed.  AEB systems used in the  automotive industry through MY 2016 are rear-end collision avoidance technologies that are not designed to reliably  perform in all crash modes, including crossing path collisions.  The Autopilot system is an Advanced Driver Assistance  System (ADAS) that requires the continual and full attention of the driver to monitor the traffic environment and be prepared to take action to avoid crashes.  Tesla's design included a hands-on the steering wheel system for monitoring driver engagement...
...  ODI analyzed data from crashes of Tesla Model S and Model X vehicles involving airbag deployments that occurred while operating in, or within 15 seconds of transitioning from, Autopilot mode. Some crashes involved impacts from other vehicles striking the Tesla from various directions with little to no warning to the Tesla driver.  Other crashes involved scenarios known to be outside of the state-of-technology for current-generation Level 1 or 2 systems, such as cut-ins, cut-outs and crossing path collisions.... 
...The Florida fatal crash appears to have involved a period of extended distraction (at least 7 seconds)..."
.Hmmm... nothing else is written about this nor is a basis given for  the 'at least 7 seconds'.  Possibly the most important information revealed in this summary is Figure 11, p11: "...  Figure 11 shows the rates calculated by ODI for airbag deployment crashes in the subject Tesla vehicles before and after Autosteer installation.  The data show that the Tesla vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40 percent after Autosteer installation...
...A safety-related defect trend has not been identified at this time and further examination of this issue does not appear to be warranted.  Accordingly, this investigation is closed. " 
Read more 
Hmmm... WOW!!! . Every word of this Finding is worth reading.  It basically exonerates Tesla, states that AEBs (Automated Emergency Braking) systems don't really work and aren't designed to work in some scenarios (straight crossing path (SCP) and left turn across path (LTAP), see p 2,3).  ...which suggests, to me, that DoT/NHTSA should be placing substantial efforts on making these systems really work in more scenarios.  And... there is the solid data that 'AutoSteer" reduced Tesla crashes by almost 40%!!! WOW!! Will Insurance now finally get on-board and lead?  Alai

Friday, September 23, 2016

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="25" width="27">[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="17" width="70"> Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety

September 2016, "Executive Summary...For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety.  (p5)

...The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)

...The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)

...The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6)  Hmmm...Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY.  We all have recognized safety as a necessary   condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful.  (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition.  Alain

"...we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (...defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm...Perfect! Alain

"...1. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p6)..."  Hmmm... 15 Points, more later. Alain

"...2. Model State Policy (p7)   The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities...but... The shared objective is to ensure the establishment of a consistent national framework rather than a patchwork of incompatible laws..." Hmmm... Well done.  Alain

"...3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) ... This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to..."   Hmmm... Excellent. Alain

"...4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)...The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)..."  Hmmm... Yes. Alain

"...Note on “Levels of Automation”  There are multiple definitions for various levels of automation and for some time there has been need for standardization to aid clarity and consistency. Therefore, this Policy adopts the SAE International (SAE) definitions for levels of automation. )  Hmmm... I'm not sure this adds clarity because it does not deal directly with the difference between self-driving and driverless.  While it might be implied in level 4 and level 5 that these vehicles can proceed with no one in the vehicle, it is not stated explicitly.  That is unfortunate, because driverless freight delivery can't be done without "driverless"; neither can mobility-on-demand be offered to the young, old, blind, inebriated, ...without "driverless".  Vehicles can't be "repositioned-empty" (which (I don't mean to offend anyone) is the real value of a taxi driver today).  So autonomousTaxis are impossible.

Also, these levels do not address Automated Emergency Braking  (AEB) Systems and Automated Lane Keeping Systems which are the very first systems whose on-all-the-time performance must be perfected.   These are the Safety Foundation of HAV (Highly Automated vehicles).  I understand that the guidelines may assume that these systems are already perfect and that "20 manufacturer have committed" to have AEB on all new cars, but to date these systems really don't work.  In 12 mph IIHS test, few stop before hitting the target, and, as we may have seen with the Florida Tesla crash, the Level 2/3 AutoPilot may not have failed, but, instead, it was the "Phantom Level 1" AEB that is supposed to be on all the time.  This is not acceptable.  These AEB systems MUST get infinitely better now.  It is a shame that AEBs were were not explicitly addressed in this document.

"...I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7)  However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems
are subject to NHTSA’s defects, recall and enforcement authority. (footnote 8)   . and the "15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance" p17)

In sum this is a very good document and displays just how far DoT policy has come from promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized control, "connected",  focus to creating an environment focused on individual vehicles that responsibly take care of themselves.  Kudos to Secretary Foxx for this 180 degree policy turn focused on safety.   Once done correctly, the HAV will yield the early safety benefits that will stimulate continued improvements that, in turn, will yield the great mobility, environmental and quality-of-life benefits afforded by driverless mobility. 

What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit.  NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines.  FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight.  Alain

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="21" width="113"> May 7 Crash

Hmmm...What we know now (and don't know):

[log in to unmask]" class="" height="50" width="44"> Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

Thursday, March 17, 2016

U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

Sunday, December 19, 2015

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" height="63" width="96"> Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars

Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1.  Hmmm ... Watch Video  especially at the 13:12 mark.  Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above!  Also see his TipRanks.  Alain

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