SmartDrivingCar.com/6.23-NTSB-Uber-052518
23st edition
of the 6th year of SmartDrivingCars
KMay 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018,
an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a
modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a
self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a
pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe,
Maricopa County, Arizona.
...The vehicle was factory equipped with several
advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars,
the original manufacturer. The systems included a
collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions
for detecting driver alertness and road sign
information. All these Volvo functions are disabled
when the test vehicle is operated in computer
control..."
Read more Hmmmm.... Uber must
believe that its systems are better at
avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency
Braking than Volvo's. At least this
gets Volvo "off the hook".
"...According to data
obtained from the self-driving system, the system
first registered radar and LIDAR observations of
the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when
the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63
feet/second) So the system started
"seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 =
378 feet away... more than a football
field, including end zones!
"...As the vehicle and
pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving
system software classified the pedestrian as an
unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a
bicycle with varying expectations of future travel
path..." (NTSB:
Please tell us precisely when it
classified this "object' as a vehicle
and be explicit about the expected "future
travel paths." Forget
the path, please just tell us the precise
velocity vector that Uber's system attached to
the "object", then the "vehicle". Why didn't
the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to
begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a
collision? If these paths (or velocity
vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't
they accurate? Why was the object classified
as a "Vehicle" ?? When did it finally
classify the object as a "bicycle"? Why did it change
classifications? How often was the
classification of this object done. Please
divulge the time and the outcome of each
classification of this object. In the tests that Uber
has done, how often has the system
mis-classified an object as a "pedestrian"when the object was
actually an overpass, or an overhead
sign or overhead branches/leaves that
the car could safely pass under, or
was nothing at all?? (Basically, what
are the false alarm characteristics of
Uber's Self-driving sensor/software
system as a function of vehicle speed
and time-of-day?)
"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.
"...According to Uber,
emergency braking maneuvers are not
enabled while the vehicle is
under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??)
the potential for erratic
vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB:
Please describe/define potential and erratic
vehicle behavior Also
please uncover
and divulge
the design
& decision
process that
Uber went
through to
decide that
this risk
(disabling the
AEB) was worth
the reward of
eradicating "
"erratic vehicle behavior". This
is
fundamentally
BAD design.
If the Uber
system's false
alarm rate is
so large that
the best way
to deal with
false alarms
is to turn off
the AEB, then
the system
should never
have been
permitted on
public
roadways.
"...The
vehicle operator
is relied on to
intervene and take
action. " Wow! If Uber's
system
fundamentally
relies on a
human to
intervene,
then Uber is
nowhere near
creating a
Driverless
vehicle.
Without its
own Driverless
vehicle Uber
is past "Peak
valuation".
"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design. In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time. If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it. Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway. This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the March 24 edition of SmartDrivingCar, See below. Alain
F. Fishkin, May 25, "With the NTSB
preliminary report out on the fatal crash in Arizona
...where does Uber go from here? Princeton
University's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred
Fishkin tackle those issues plus more on Mobileye,
Apple and the report on the dangers of push button
car ignitions. Listen and subscribe!"
Real information every week. Lively discussions with the people who are shaping the future of SmartDrivingCars. Want to become a sustaining sponsor and help us grow the SmartDrivingCars newsletter and podcast? Contact Alain Kornhauser at [log in to unmask]! Alain
Russ Mitchell, May 24, "...The failure to brake in
the Arizona accident highlights the immaturity of
driverless technology and tradeoffs made by
programmers that could end in tragedy. While the
basics of various companies' driverless systems are
the same, in detail they differ greatly, from how
software is written to which sensor systems are used.
Tesla, for instance, bucks the industry in general by
dismissing the need for lidar, an expensive technology
that uses laser pulses to draw images of physical
objects.
"What is not being stressed is that the performance of
these systems varies greatly," said Alain Kornhauser,
director of Princeton University's autonomous vehicle
engineering program. "The technology is not all the
same."..." Read
more Hmmmm....Uber was
testing a system that fundamentally
requires a human operator to be alert
and monitoring in ALL situations when
emergency brakes need to be applied because
its "automatic driving system" design "turns
off the Emergency Braking System when the
"automatic driving system" is turned on.
Yipes!!! Alain
A. Ganz, May 23, "Two months after one of its
vehicles was involved in a fatal crash with a
pedestrian, Uber said Wednesday that it will formally
cease self-driving car testing and development in
Arizona..." Read
more Hmmmm.... Uber must
have been anticipating the NTSB's preliminary
report (above). Alain
T. Lee, May 21, "Mobileye, the Israeli self-driving technology company Intel acquired last year, announced on Thursday that it would begin testing up to 100 cars on the roads of Jerusalem. But in a demonstration with Israeli television journalists, the company's demonstration car blew through a red light. (near end of video)....While most companies working on full self-driving technology have made heavy use of lidar sensors, Mobileye is testing cars that rely exclusively on cameras for navigation. Mobileye isn't necessarily planning to ship self-driving technology that works that way. Instead, testing a camera-only system is part of the company's unorthodox approach for verifying the safety of its technology stack. That strategy was first outlined in an October white paper, and Mobileye CTO Amnon Shashua elaborated on that strategy in a Thursday blog post.
"We target a vehicle that gets from point A to point
B faster, smoother, and less-expensively than a
human-driven vehicle; can operate in any geography;
and achieves a verifiable, transparent 1,000-times
safety improvement over a human-driven vehicle without
the need for billions of miles of validation testing
on public roads," Shashua wrote on Thursday.
It's a bold claim. We're skeptical it's actually true.
The company argues that validating the sensing system
is made even easier by capitalizing on sensor
redundancies....But this argument relies on two big
assumptions, and it's far from clear that either of
them is true.
The first assumption is that the failure modes of the
two sensing systems are independent...
And it's that last point that should really worry us:
that Mobileye's model likely makes assumptions that
don't actually describe the real world.
For example, Mobileye is implicitly assuming that
fusing the two sensor systems together won't introduce
any new sources of error. But as Navigant Research
analyst Sam Abuelsamid pointed out to us, that's not
likely to be true....
So the company's leadership has convinced itself that
it can rely heavily on formal mathematical proofs as a
substitute for millions of miles of real-world
testing, because its business model doesn't leave it
with many good alternatives. But wishing this were
true doesn't make it so." Read
more Hmmmm.... This is
an excellent article! Read all of it. Alain
K. Pyle, May 9 (updated) "Safety and, as importantly,
the perception of safety could be the pin that pricks
the expectations surrounding the autonomous vehicle
future. Recognizing the importance of safety to the
success of this still nascent industry, autonomous
taxi start-up, Voyage, recently placed their testing
and reporting procedures in an open source framework.
Voyage Co-Founder, Eric Gonzalez explains in the above
interview that, at launch, there are four functional
blocks to OAS (Open Autonomous Safety) that are now
part of a GitHub repository:..." Read
more Hmmmm.... and
see
video. Alain
A. Kornhauser, May 17, " Outstanding Summit. Click
on URL read presentations " Read
more Hmmmm....
Enjoy! Alain
F. Fishkin, May 16 & 17:
J. Nicas, May 23, "...In recent years, Apple sought
partnerships with the luxury carmakers BMW and
Mercedes-Benz to develop an all-electric self-driving
vehicle, according to five people familiar with the
negotiations who asked not to be identified because
they were not authorized to discuss the matter
publicly. But on-again, off-again talks with those
companies have ended after each rebuffed Apple’s
requirements to hand over control of the data and
design, some of the people said.." Read
more Hmmmm.... Is
that really the best that Apple could do? Alain
A. Hawkins, May 24 "Uber’s plan to fill the skies above cities with swarms of electric-powered flying taxis is getting its own dedicated laboratory. ..." Read more Hmmmm.... Does Uber really believe that this will turn around its plunging valuation???? C'mon Man!! Alain
3rd
Annual
Princeton SmartDrivingCar
Summit
evening May 14 through May 16, 2019
Save the Date; Reserve your
Sponsorship
Photos
from 2nd Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Program
& Links to slides from 2nd Annual Princeton
SmartDrivingCar Summit
F. Fishkin, May 17, "How close is California to giving the green light to driverless testing on public roads? Deputy DMV Director Bernard Soriano joins Alain Kornhauser, Fred Fishkin and guest Michael Sena on Episode 39 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. And we review some highlights of the just concluded 2nd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit. Listen and subscribe!"
F. Fishkin, May 10, "The continuing Uber crash investigation, Waymo and Ohio rolls out the welcome mat for the testing of self driving cars. All that and more in Episode 38 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. This week Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by Bryant Walker Smith of the University of South Carolina and Stanford. Tune in and subscribe!"
F. Fishkin, Apr 26, "Getting SmartDrivingCar companies to share their data on safety. It's a move that could benefit all says Princeton University Professor Alain Kornhauser in the latest Smart Driving Cars Podcast. He joins co-host Fred Fishkin...to chat about the move by Voyage. Also...Tesla, Waymo and more..
F. Fishkin, Apr 4, " Waymo is making it real! In Episode 33 of
the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, hosts Fred Fishkin
and Princeton's Alain Kornhauser are joined by
Michael Sena, publisher
of The Dispatcher newsletter. Take a deep dive into
Waymo's deals with
Jaguar and talks with Honda.. Tesla, Volvo, Uber and
Ambarella. And the
Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit is coming
up! "
F. Fishkin, Apr 2, "Waymo's big partnership with Jaguar, a deadly Tesla autopilot crash and the plans for congestion pricing for vehicles in parts of Manhattan. In Episode 32 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser takes on the tough questions with straight answers and no hype, along with tech journalist Fred Fishkin. Listen in...and subscribe!"
Waymo's chief confident his self driving vehicles would have avoided same outcome as Uber's in deadly crash. How deep are Uber's troubles? In Episode 31 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and journalist Fred Fishkin are joined by Alex Roy, editor at large of The Drive.
Investigating the Uber self driving crash that
killed pedestrian Elaine Herzberg: In Episode 30 of the Smart Driving
Cars Podcast, Princeton University's Alain
Kornhauser goes in depth on why it could and should
have been avoided. He chats with Fred Fishkin about
the impact of the crash on other testing programs
and how the technology should move forward.
The Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode
26! Join Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser and
co-host Fred Fishkin as they take an in depth look
at the new driverless vehicle testing regs unveiled this week in
California with the state's Deputy Director of the
Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano.
Also... the latest from Waymo,
Ford and Amazon.
Episode 18 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast with Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and guest research engineer Steven Shladover of UC Berkeley. Topics: General Motors, Waymo, the Transportation Research Board, CES, nVIDIA and how #MeToo may impact ride sharing technology in the future.
Episode 11 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast with host Fred Fishkin and Princeton University Professor Alain Kornhauser. Fred and Alain are joined by leading expert and Internet pioneer Brad Templeton. Waymo makes some history, Thee tech needed to make it work..cameras...lidar or both? Navya bringing new robotic vehicles to Paris. And an accident...as a self driving shuttle is launched in Las Vegas.
K. Pyle, May 9, "Safety and, as importantly, the perception of safety could be the pin that pricks the expectations surrounding the autonomous vehicle future. Recognizing the importance of safety to the success of this still nascent industry, autonomous taxi start-up, Voyage, recently placed their testing and reporting procedures in an open source framework. ...Oliver Cameron, Voyage Co-Founder and CEO, is excited to see participation and says, “We can’t wait to have all of these contributions from companies from around the world; contribute to build the actual standard in autonomous safety.” Read more, Hmmmm.... See the video that was played at the Princeton SDC Summit which generated substantial positive discussion at the Summit. See also full length video. Alain
A. Efrati, May 7, "Uber has determined that the
likely cause of a fatal collision involving one of its
prototype self-driving cars in Arizona in March was a
problem with the software that decides how the car
should react to objects it detects, according to two
people briefed about the matter." Read
more Hmmmm....Uber is
"leaking" this??? Is this Spin? Fake News??
I guess Uber doesn't believe in transparency
here. Where is the official public
statement of reassurance???
"The car’s sensors detected the pedestrian, who was
crossing the street with a bicycle, Hmmmm....Pretty
much what I wrote on March 24, the sensors
"Saw something" ...
but Uber’s software decided it didn’t need to react
right away. ..."right away" is
Fake News. It never reacted. Uber
has not released any data indicating that the
software ever reacted. "That’s
a result of how the software was tuned." ...That was a major
"tuning" faux pas. What is being divulged
here is that Uber's software never became
confident enough that what it was seeing was
something that it should not hit and, at
least, begin to apply the brakes (or swerve,
or ???). Even the driver in the video
recognized that the object should not be hit a
split second before the crash. So the Problem
is not "tuning" it is outright "fuhgeddaboudit"
Like other autonomous vehicle systems, Uber’s software
has the ability to ignore “false positives,” or
objects in its path that wouldn’t actually be a
problem for the vehicle, such as a plastic bag
floating over a road.... Is Uber suggesting
that its software can't tell the difference
between a plastic bag floating over the road
and a pedestrian with a bicycle, even after
seeing the object 30 to 60 or more times over
the 3 or more seconds that the object was in
view? If this isn't Fake News then Uber is
hopelessly far behind... In
this case, Uber executives believe the company’s
system was tuned so that it reacted less to such
objects." It didn't react
at all!...
But the tuning went too far, and the car didn’t react
fast enough, one of these people said.... ... It didn't
react at all! If this wasn't so important I'd
put it in C'mon man.
"False positives" are the
symptom, not the problem. The problem is Uber's
system design and operational policy. Uber system
designers knew that the sensors under certain
conditions reported "false positives" (were
"spooked"). One of those conditions was possibly
the combination of "is the closing speed = car's
current speed" AND "is the car's current speed
greater than 30mph." In situations in which both
are true, then Uber's "tuning" is outright "fuhgeddaboudit".
This "tuning" effectively turns-off Uber's sensors
to detecting anything that is stationary or moving
across its lane ahead. If Uber has understood
this, then Uber would/should have ...
1. limited the operation of its cars to speeds under 30 mph,
2. limited the operation of
its cars at speeds greater than 30 mph only to
roadways where pedestrians are extremely unlikely
to cross, and
3. focus on substantially
improving its ability to interpret its sensor data
so that the false alarm rate becomes so small that
false alarms are tolerated throughout Uber's
operational domain.
..."Meanwhile, the human driver behind the wheel, who
is meant to take over and prevent an accident, wasn't
paying attention in the seconds before the car
hit..." ...I think that
this is a cheap shot against the driver. I
suspect that this car had a screen that displayed
the real-time status of the automated driving
system. I would not be surprised if that screen
was mounted below the radio and that the driver
was actually monitoring the operation of the
automated driving system prior to the crash. Why
this display wasn't on the dash so that the
driver's peripheral vision could remain on the
road ahead when the driver was monitoring the
performance of the system is a question Uber
should answer,... if it had any interest in being
transparent.
Another question that Uber
could be asked: Why didn't the monitoring system
warn the driver that it was "seeing something"
and ask the driver to look to see if it should be
"saying/doing something".
Since it doesn't look like
Uber is going to really divulge anything, it is
incumbent on the NTSB to dig deeply into this
"false alarm" issue. Disregarding "false
positives" in order to circumvent a little
passenger/customer discomfort enables "false
negatives" which kill people. Not pretty!
A. Madrigal, Mar 28, "On Tuesday, Waymo announced they’d
purchase 20,000 sporty, electric self-driving
vehicles from Jaguar for the company’s forthcoming
ride-hailing service.... But the company embedded a
much more significant milestone inside this supposed
announcement about a fancy car. With orders now in
for more than 20,000 of these vehicles and thousands
of minivans that Chrysler announced earlier this
year, Waymo will be
capable of doing vast numbers of trips per day. They
estimate that the Jaguar fleet alone will be capable
of doing a million trips each day in 2020.
You could quibble with their math (will it really be
that many daily trips per car?) or their overall
utilization rate (how many cars will be lost to
maintenance per day?), but if Waymo
is even within 50 percent of that number in two
years, the United States will have entered an
entirely new phase in robotics and technology.
The company’s autonomous vehicles have driven 5
million miles since Alphabet began the program back
in 2009. The first million miles took roughly six
years. The next million took about a year. The third
million took less than eight months. The fourth
million took six months. And the fifth million took
just under three months. Today, that suggests a rate
on the order of 10,000 miles per day. If Waymo hits their marks,
they’ll be driving at a rate that’s three orders of
magnitude faster in 2020. We’re talking about
covering each million miles in hours.
But the qualitative impact will be even bigger.
Right now, maybe 10,000 or 20,000 people have ever
ridden in a self-driving car, in any context. Far
fewer have been in a vehicle that is truly absent a
driver. Up to a million people could have that
experience every day in 2020.
2020 is not some distant number. It’s hardly even a
projection. By laying out this time line yesterday,
Waymo is telling the
world: Get ready, this is really happening. This is
autonomous driving at scale, and not in five years
or 10 years or 50 years, but in two years or
less...." Read
more Hmmmm...Yup!! This
is HUGE! It will change the city and the key
to making it so it doesn't make thing worse is
Ride-sharing. If we ride-share we'll reduce
energy, pollution & GHG by more than 50%
and provide high-quality, affordable mobility
indiscriminately for all. It becomes the new
high-quality, low-cost mass transit. If it's
kept/operated as another alternative for the
1%ers to be chauffeured alone, then the
outcome is UGLY. Ride-sharing is KEY! Alain
R. Mitchell, Mar 22, "Police late
Wednesday released a video that shows an Uber robot
car running straight into a woman who was walking
her bicycle across a highway in Tempe, Ariz. The
woman was taken to a hospital, where she died Sunday
night.
The video, shot from the car, is sure to raise
debate over who's to blame for the accident. In
the video, the victim, Elaine Herzberg, 49, appears
to be illegally jaywalking from a median strip
across two lanes of traffic on a dark road. But she
was more than halfway across the street when the car
— traveling about 40 mph, according to police — hit
her. The car did not appear to brake or take any
other evasive action....
Bryant Walker Smith, a law professor and driverless
specialist at the University of South Carolina,
said: "Although this appalling video isn't the full
picture, it strongly suggests a failure by Uber's
automated driving system and a lack of due care by
Uber's driver as well as by the victim."..." Read more Hmmmm... "..."What we now need is for the
release of the radar and lidar
data," Princeton's Kornhauser said in an email.
(Lidar is a sensing technology that uses light from
a laser.) "Obviously, the video of the driver is
extremely bad for Uber and probably implies that
Uber should suspend all of its 'self-driving'
efforts for a while if not for a very long while.
"The 'self-driving' systems are supposed to have
'professional' overseers who are really supposed to
be paying attention during these 'tests'. Apparently
Uber didn't make it clear in this case."
Kornhauser questioned the police description of a
situation that would have been difficult to avoid.
He said Uber should reveal what its
collision-avoidance software was doing during the
couple of seconds before impact.
"The front-facing video suggests that this person
was crossing the lane at a slow speed and should
have been noticed by the system in time to at least
apply the brakes, if not stop the vehicle
completely," he said. "While a human may not have
been able to avoid this crash, a well-designed,
well-working collision avoidance system should have
at least begun to apply the brakes."..."
" ... Again, my
sincerest condolences to Elaine Herzberg's
family and friends.
The simple arithmetic
is: She crossed more than a lane and a half
before being struck or more than 15 feet.
Average walking speed is about 4.6 ft/sec which means
that she was "visible" on this stretch of road
for more than 3 seconds. Uber's speed of 38
mph = 55.7 ft/sec
means: Uber was 150 ft
away when she began crossing the left-hand
lane and could have been visible by an alert
driver. The car's lidar
and radar surely must have "seen" her
beginning at about that time. Car
stopping distance including "thinking
time used in The Highway Code" @ 38mph is 110
feet. The driver should have been able to
stop 40 feet short. Any Automated Emergency
Braking (AEB) system should have been able to
stop the car in little more than the stopping
distance of 72 feet, half way to Elaine. This
simple arithmetic suggests that there may be a
very fundamental
fatal flaw in Uber's AEB.
And the driver was not
paying attention. At 3 seconds prior to
impact, Elaine was within a 12 degree field of
view when she began to cross the left lane.
While outside the fovea, this is well within a
normal gaze had the operator been looking out
the window.
The released video is
from a "dash cam" and is unlikely to be the
video captured by Uber's "Self-driving" system
(or whatever Uber calls it). That video may
well be at a much higher resolution and frame
rate. Uber MUST release that video (not just
the dash-cam video) as well as the radar and lidar data that was
being used by their "Self-driving" system.
Uber was testing its system at the time of the
crash and therefore MUST have been logging
those data in case something went wrong. Uber
needs those recorded data in order to have a
chance to learn what went wrong and fix it.
Something did go wrong, very wrong. Uber and
everyone else MUST also have the opportunity
to learn from this tragedy. So Uber MUST
release all of the data. Alain
R. Mitchell, Mar 21, "As long as robot
cars roam public streets and highways, they will
occasionally kill people. That's an ugly truth that
no one in the driverless vehicle industry can deny.
Will those robot cars kill people at significantly
lower rates than drunk, stoned, tired or distracted
human drivers do now? Automakers, technology
companies, politicians and regulators are betting
they will, as driverless vehicles are rolling out
faster than almost anyone expected as recently as a
year ago. But the Sunday night incident in Tempe,
Ariz., in which an Uber robot car hit and killed a
woman walking her bicycle across the street, makes
clear the industry is much further behind in making
its case to the public.
"It's likely there will be far fewer deaths with
driverless cars," said Marlene Towns, a professor at
Georgetown University's McDonough School of
Business. "But getting to the point where people
will be convinced of that will be tough."
Speculation by Tempe's police chief that the robot
may not be at fault in the crash may temper any
public or political backlash.
Uber was testing the robot car in autonomous mode
with a human engineer, who was behind the wheel but
not driving. Elaine Herzberg, 49, walking a bicycle,
stepped in front of the car from a center median,
according to video evidence, police said...." Read more Hmmmm... "...Carmakers and technology
companies need to be far more transparent as they
push forward, experts said. "It's important that
we all learn from this accident and we make these
technologies even better, said Alain Kornhauser, a
professor at Princeton University and a leading
authority on driverless cars. "To that end Uber
must release all of the data leading up to this
crash. All of the video, radar, lidar and logic trails for
the three or so seconds leading up to the crash.
If this releases some of Uber's intellectual
property, so be it."..."
" ... My sincerest
condolences to Elaine Herzberg's family and
friends. I hope that Uber with its "$60"B
valuation will make a very generous
contribution to homeless charities and think
even more seriously about "buying" (by
partnering) rather than "making" this
technology. Alain
G. Kumparak,
Mar 13, "...." Read more Hmmmm... This is REALLY big news.This marks the
real beginning of on-demand mobility provided
by vehicles without a driver or an attendant
on-board, only the passengers and the vehicles
used normal public roadways that operated in
normal everyday manner and used by
conventional cars and trucks. Ng Waymo to their o
police escorts, no warning signs, just normal
everyday operating conditions. Except for the
one trip given to Steve Mahan in November 2015
in Austin Texas, this is the First time that
it kind of mobility service has been delivered
anywhere in the world. Waymo
has achieved 5 million vehicle miles of
Self-driving (automated driving on normally
operating public roadway; however, with a
driver/attendant in the car ready to take over
should the automated system begin to fail.
Many others including Uber, Lyft/Aptiv, GM/Cruise, nVIDIA, Apple, Tesla,
Nissan and many others have also done many
miles of Self-driving on normal roads but each
an everyone had a driver/attendant in the
vehicle ready to "save the day" should
something go bad. Nobody else anywhere in the
world is doing what Waymo
is now doing in Chandler AZ. Now that the
first one has been done, any community that is
similar to Chandler AZ can now think seriously
about inviting Waymo
to provide affordable on-demand mobility to
everyone in their city.
Be sure to see the
video. Congratulations
Waymo!!!!! Alain
D. Etherington, Feb 27,
"California’s Department of Motor Vehicles established
new rules announced Monday that will allow tech
companies and others working on driverless vehicle
systems to begin trialling
their cars without a safety driver at the wheel. The
new rules go into effect starting April 2.
Until now, the DMV has allowed companies approved for
autonomous vehicle testing to run their cars on the
roads, with autonomous driving systems engaged,
provided that there’s a trained safety driver behind
the wheel ready and able to take over manual control.
Now, the regulators are updating their rules to allow
for fully driverless test, which is a key step along
the route towards actually deploying self-driving
vehicles in a commercial capacity.
This doesn’t mean test vehicles will be out there on
the roads without any kind of human intervention
backup – the DMV will require that those testing
autonomous cars without a driver present have a dedicated
communications channel that ties the car to a remote
operator, who can take over if needed. ..." Read more Hmmmm... Even though we have
been expecting this, it is a major hurdle for
it to actually have occurred. How long after
April 2 will Waymo
take to begin this type of testing. Again
this is only testing and deployment, but NOT
commercial service, which may happen first in
Arizona, but it is a major step in this
r-evolution. Commercial services are
regulated by other agencies in California, not
CA DMV. It is those other agencies that will
need to grant/award the licenses for the
various commercial operations where these
driverless vehicles would be used. This
regulation allows properly licensed commercial
operations using CA DMV certified driverless
vehicles to have those vehicles use California
public roadways in delivering the otherwise
licensed commercial activity. Note: CA DMV
does not license the commercial transport of
people or goods. That is the purview of other
CA regulatory agencies. Alain
S. Feigon, Jan 2018, Pre-publication draft of TCRP Research Report 195 "Urban mobility is rapidly evolving in the United States, particularly since the introduction o app‐based transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft. A these services become more widespread, man have begun to question what effect they are having on the cities where they operate, including on public transit ridership, single‐occupancy vehicle trips and traffic congestion. In the face of widespread declines in public transit ridership after a decade or more of growth nationally, these questions have become especially pressing. Speculation has grown around whether TNCs are leading to real changes in how people use public transit and private automobiles, or if these fluctuations are caused by other factors.
Key findings from this research include:...3. There is no clear relationship between the level of peak‐hour TNC use and longer‐term changes in the study regions’ public transit usage. ..." Read more Hmmmm... Very interesting report. Worth reading. My opinion: The evolution of TNCs in the past "5 years" is an approximate blueprint of what can be expected in the first "5 years" of autonomousTaxis, give-or-take. That's why this is worth reading. Alain
A. Webb, Feb 12, "It has almost become
a refrain: just what is Masayoshi Son up to? After
plowing money into companies as diverse as Uber
Technologies Inc., office rental specialist WeWork Cos Inc. and fintech lender SoFi, the billionaire chief
of Softbank Group Corp. is in talks to buy as much
as a third of Swiss Re, a 155-year-old reinsurance
giant.... It has almost become a refrain: just what
is Masayoshi Son up to? After plowing money into
companies as diverse as Uber Technologies Inc.,
office rental specialist
WeWork Cos Inc. and fintech
lender SoFi, the
billionaire chief of Softbank Group Corp. is in
talks to buy as much as a third of Swiss Re, a
155-year-old reinsurance giant...
And it just so happens that the $700 billion motor
insurance market is reinsurers' most important
business line, Swiss Re has said. So you can see why
it might be useful to make introductions between the
insurance folk and the ride-sharing apps, especially
as the latter will be at the vanguard of
self-driving cars. ..or what I call
Driverless Cars......
There's the possibility too that SoftBank might be interested
in tailoring insurance apps for gig economy workers
such as Uber drivers (at least until they're
replaced by robots)...." Read more Hmmmm... There's much more
here... There is an enormous opportunity to
be "ahead of the curve" on this one. By
leading rather than following, an insurance
entity can both accelerate the adoption of SmartDrivingCars and
improve its own bottom line. It really is
that simple. Alain
Andrew Hawkins, Jan 30, “Waymo, the self-driving unit of Google parent Alphabet, has reached a deal with one of Detroit’s Big Three automakers to dramatically expand its fleet of autonomous vehicles. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles announced today that it would supply “thousands” of additional Chrysler Pacifica minivans to Waymo, with the first deliveries starting at the end of 2018.
Waymo currently has 600 of FCA’s minivans in
its fleet, some of which are used to shuttle real
people around for its Early Rider program in
Arizona. The first 100 were delivered when the
partnership was announced in May 2016, and an
additional 500 were delivered in 2017. The minivans
are plug-in hybrid variants with Waymo’s self-driving
hardware and software built in. The companies
co-staff a facility in Michigan, near FCA’s US
headquarters, to engineer the vehicles. The company
also owns a fleet of self-driving Lexus RX SUVs that
is has been phasing out in favor of the new
minivans. (The cute “Firefly” prototypes were also
phased out last year.)…” Read
more Hmmmm... We’ve all
been wondering” Who’s going to make the cars?
How will that evolve?Will
they magically appear???
Well….Looks like it is
FCA for now. We've gone from a handful 5 years
ago, 2 years ago added 100, added 500 last year,
“thousands” this/next year, … Beginning to look
like exponential growth! (A Bit Coin Bubble??)
What is also most interesting: no parallel
announcement that Waymo
was hiring “thousands of attendants” to ride
around as "drivers" in these “thousands of
minivans”. Guess what that means… The Kornhauser
Scale is going to start really going up!!!
J
While ultimately
they’ll need about 35 million of these to
provide affordable mobility to all in the US,
this is a real start at making this into a
business as opposed to an NSF-style study that
collects dust on a shelf or, worse yet, a
digital manuscript that is never downloaded by
anyone outside a "group of three". This is a
major announcement!
From Stan Young: It will be interesting to watch. It probably has the OEMs, Uber and Lyft scared out of their wits. Based on any objective comparison of accomplishment with automated vehicles, there is not a close second to Waymo, despite all the claims to the contrary by trade rags – and the competition knows it. Still a huge unknown concerning the ‘social side’ of riding in an un-attended vehicle, but we will likely get over it like we did with elevators. ‘Thousands’ of vehicles if deployed in one city will put it on scale of Uber and Lyft – an interesting study when/if it comes to that.
...An issue is: where will Waymo choose to deploy (and for Waymo, the word "deploy" is the right word... they make the decision where to place these, in some sense take it or leave it... as opposed to waiting for people to show up at a dealership to buy or have it stay on the lot or have some governmental agency thinking that it actually has a role/power/where-with-all to “deploy”) where, when and how many. They could "flood/concentrate" on Chandler/Phoenix/Tuscon area with scale to be really relevant and substantively demonstrate the evolution of mobility, or they could sprinkle them out nationwide and remain irrelevant everywhere. I like the "flood/concentrate" approach in a state (Arizona) where they seem to be truly welcomed and whose climate, topography and road network are "easy". More importantly it would demonstrate the viability/challenges of the at-scale approach. From our simulations we uncovered that at-scale, one might need to be managing as many as 20,000 aTaxis in a 2.5x2.5 mile area (the extreme in Manhattan, which may be the last place that you want to try this) but it can be large. We’ll drill down in our data and take a look at Chandler/Phoenix and report back as to what we think it would take to provide mobility for all. Alain
M. Jing, Jan 25, "On Thursday the company launched an integrated solution for smart city traffic management by harnessing data generated by its platform that compiles roughly 25 million rides per day....More than 20 cities in China have already partnered with Didi to use the company’s transport solutions in their smart city development strategies. In Jinan, Shandong province, 344 sets of smart traffic signals – which change lights based on real-time traffic conditions – have been installed..." Read more Hmmmm... For this to actually work, Didi must be making available not only the real-time location of each of their "drivers" but also their destination (which, of course, they know). They know this continuously but more importantly they know it even before the rider's ride even starts. They know it as soon as a driver is dispatched to a pickup. This is enormously valuable information if you're trying to anticipate congestion ahead and have any hope of doing anything to alleviate it. You need a lot it and they have a chance at serving enough trips to actually make a difference. Very interesting! Alain
Jan. 9, T. Papandreou & E. Casson. "... Waymo driverless service..." Read more Hmmmm... Tim and Ellie made presentation at the Transportation Research Board's Vehicle-Highway Automation (AHB30) Committee meeting on Tuesday in which they gave an update on Waymo's progress to launch "Waymo's driverless service" (slide 11), an app-based ride hailing service to the general public in a geo-fenced area of Arizona. To date Waymo has been testing such a service using volunteer riders in their driverless vehicles in various areas around the country (slide 7): however, to date, except for one ride given to Steve Mahan in Austin, TX, rides on normally operating public streets have always had trained Waymo-authorized personnel (an attendant) in the vehicle capable to intervene in the driving of the vehicle should the need arise. Since October, in Arizona, those personnel no longer sit behind the wheel, but are in the back seat so that Waymo can observe the response of the volunteer riders to riding in a vehicle on normal public streets under normal conditions without anyone in the front seats of the vehicle.
Tim said, without providing a specific date, that Waymo will soon launch "Waymo's driverless service" providing mobility to the general public on public roads in a geo-fenced area of Arizona. I asked Tim "Will that service be offered with vehicles that have an attendant in the vehicle?". Tim's answer was "No!". I asked a follow-up question: "Will these vehicle's have telemetry capabilities that enable these vehicles to be closely monitored from a "situation room" or "control center" that would enable remote operation of the vehicle, should the need arise?". Tim's answer was "No!". Another questioner asked if the geo-fenced area included special "connected vehicle" road infrastructure improvement that Waymo's system will be relying on?" Tim's answer was "No!".
While the definition of "soon" was not given, I've taken this as a really big pronouncement that Waymo is actually going to go to launch commercially-viable on-demand mobility to the general public on conventional public roads. This is really big news because this is finally going to enable us to begin to evolve on the "Kornhauser Scale" ( log of (world-wide VMT of Driverless (VMT-D) vehicles without a human attendant/driver on board accumulated while providing mobility to the general public on conventional roadways). So far we are beyond the "undefined value" associated with VMT-D = 0 and are at KS = 1 only by virtue of the one Steve Mahan ride in Austin). :-) Alain
S.
Masunaga & R.
Mitchell, Nov. 20, " fleet of self-driving Volvo
vehicles operated by Uber Technologies Inc. could be
ready for the road as early as 2019, marking the
ride-hailing firm’s biggest push yet to roll out
autonomous cars. Volvo said Monday that it would sell
Uber tens of thousands of luxury sport utility
vehicles between 2019 and 2021 outfitted with the
Swedish automaker’s safety, redundancy and core
autonomous driving technologies. Uber will then add
its own self-driving technology to the autonomous taxi
fleet..."
Read more Hmmmm... This is a
significant announcement and recognizes that it
is going to take another year-plus for the
Uber/Volvo existing 'Self-driving'
technology stack (which now requires an Uber
attendant in the car) to become 'Driverless'
(can operate safely without an Uber attendant in
each car). If these cars don't become
Driverless, their cost per ride will be so
prohibitively high that their use will not be
sustainable.
24,000 is a reasonable
number with which to start These vehicles
would become Uber's work horses. They'll
operate ~20 hours a day and could serve ~5 short
trips per hour when concentrated in Uber's
highest demand areas. With some ride sharing
they could serve 100 person trips per day,
allowing them to serve nearly half of Uber's
current 5.5
million trips a day. Unfortunately, this
is the short-trip half. The half remaining is
dominated by long trips. Vehicles serve these
at only about 1.5 trips per hour. Vehicle
(driver) productivity is consequently limited
to about 30 trips per day. That means that each
day Uber will still need two shifts of 100,000
gig workers each to show up and deliver the
mobility services needed to serve their 3
million daily longer trips. To really scale,
Uber will need to order many more of these
Volvos and and get
them to operate Driverlessly
in much larger geographic areas so that they can
serve some of these long trips.
In the US there are
about 1 Billion vehicular trips per day. Many
are short, some are long, very few are very
long. It is doubtful that a Driverless car
could serve more than 2.5 person trips per hour
or 50 blended-length trips per day. Thus, to
serve 10% of the Billion trips per day would
require a fleet of about 2 million Driverless
cars. In 2016, 17.5 Million cars & light
trucks were sold in the US. By devoting about
10% of the car & light duty truck
manufacturing capacity to the production of
Driverless vehicles, enough Driverless cars are
produced in a year to serve 10% of all US
vehicular trips. So the manufacturing capacity
exists to enable an Uber or Lyft or Didi or Waymo or ... to in a few
years serve many/most trips in the US.
This suggests to me that
Waymo must have
already established a deal/arrangement with a
manufacturer to begin very soon to produce
thousands of cars that can accept Waymo's Driverless stack
of hardware and software and aggressively begin
to serve pockets of those 1Billion daily person
trips. Alain
AP,
Nov. 7, 2017 "Waymo, the
self-driving car company created by Google, is pulling
the human backup driver from behind the steering wheel
and will test vehicles on public roads with only
an employee in the
back seat.
The company’s move — which started Oct. 19 with an
automated Chrysler Pacifica minivan in the Phoenix
suburb of Chandler, Ariz. — is a major step toward
vehicles driving themselves on public roads without
human backup drivers. ..." Read
more Hmmmm... Not to be too
critical, but Waymo
is still just 'Self-driving' . While they moved
the 'engineer' with the ability to 'take over
and drive the vehicle' from behind the wheel to
the back seat, this is just a step along the
broad 'Self-driving' continuum which is a
vehicle that, under certain circumstance, can
drive itself, but does that only if there is a
person ready and able to take over if the
unexpected appears.
The big-leap/major-step
will come when Waymo
removes the 'engineer' entirely from the vehicle
and it is human-less when it arrives to
pick up a passenger and drives away
human-less after the last passenger(s)
disembark. That enormous leap-of-faith in the
technology will mark Waymo's
inception of the Driverless Era. (or
what Waymo prefers
to call 'Fully Self-driving' era.)
Just to be clear, when
that time comes, I'm sure that Waymo will have
telemetry throughout that Driverless vehicle and
there will be a room full of engineers in Waymo's 'Situation
Room' ready to take over the driving
should the need arise. However, until that
time, Waymo is just
like all the other
wanabes, they are just 'Self-driving'
without the 'Fully'.
The reason why 'remote
emergency driving' is 'Driverless' is because it
scales. By that I mean that it takes the
provision of horizontal mobility on our public
streets from needing at least one human per
vehicle to needing less than one human per
vehicle. Initially the remote driver will
monitor one car. Before you know it that person
will be monitoring two, four, eight, ...
vehicles and truly Driverless with zero remote
human oversee-ers
will be approached asymptotically. But just
like the old saw between the engineer and the
mathematician: engineer and mathematician were
sitting on a bench recalling their youth...
Engineer said "Long ago, I was sitting on this
very bench with my girl. We wanted to kiss but
we were too far apart. So we agreed to move
towards each other by halving the distance
between us on each move. The mathematician
blared " You're so stupid! If you did that, you
never came together!" The engineer just smiled:
"we got close enough!". Alain
Rulemaking
Actions, Oct 1The following 3 PDFs are
important:
1.
Autonomous Vehicles Notice of Modification (PDF)
Act
2.
Autonomous Vehicles Statement of Reasons (PDF)
Act
3.
Autonomous Vehicles 15 Day Express Terms (PDF)
Act Hmmmm..This
is all about Driverless! Thank you
California, and especially Dr. Bernard Soriano,
for leading this noble effort and for continuing
to distinguish this technology from Self-driving
and all of the various other names seemingly
meant to confuse. Alain
The
docket material is available at: https://go.usa.gov/xNvaE"
Read more Hmmmm... A few comments...
1. Since lateral
control (swerving) couldn't have avoided this
crash (the truck is almost 70 ft long (6 lanes wide)
stretching broadside across the highway) , it
doesn't matter if Josh Brown ever had his hands
on the steering wheel. That's totally
irrelevant.
2. Why didn't autobrake
kick in when the tractor part of the
tractor-trailer passed in front of the Tesla?
3. How fast was the
truck going when it cut off the Tesla. I
couldn't find the answer in 500 pages.
4. With sight distances
of greater than 1,000 feet, why didn't the truck
driver see the Tesla? Was it the drugs?
5. This intersection
invites "left-turn run-throughs" (no stop or
yield and a 53 foot median and turn lane need to
be crossed before one slips through a gap in two
traffic lanes. So you certainly roll into it,
(plenty of room to stop if you see something
coming) and if you don't see anything, you hit
it. If you're in the Tesla, you think you've
been clearly seem, you expect the truck to stop,
it doesn't, you can't believe it, BAM! All in
probably a second or so.
6. The head injury
description (Table
1 p2 of 3) certainly suggests that Joshua
Brown was seated upright facing forward at
impact. The bilateral lacerations on the lower
arm from the elbow to the wrist may indicate
that he saw it coming in the last second and
raised his arms in an attempt to protect his
head. The evidence reported doesn't seem to
suggest he saw this early enough to bend toward
the passenger seat and try to pass underneath.
7. About 40 feet of
tractor and trailer passed directly in front of
the Tesla prior to impact. Depending on how
fast the truck was traveling, that takes some
time. Has NTSB run Virtual Reality simulations
of various truck turn trajectories and analyzed
what the truck driver and the Tesla driver
could/should have seen? Seems like a relatively
simple thing to do. We know what the Tesla was
doing prior to the crash (going 74 mph straight
down the road.) and we know where it hit the
truck. How fast the truck was traveling doesn't
seem to be known.
8. Why wasn't there any
video captured from the Tesla. Didn't that
version of the MobilEye
system store the video; I guess not, :-(
Anyway, lots to read in
the 500
pages, but there is also a lot missing.
I'm not linking the many articles reporting on
this because I disagree with many of their
interpretations of the facts reported by NTSB.
Please reach your own conclusions. Alain
May
18, Enormously successful inaugural Summit starting
with the Adam
Jonas video and finishing with
Fred Fishkin's live
interview with Wm. C Ford III. In between, serious
engagement among over 150 leaders from
Communities at the bleeding edge of deployment,
Insurance struggling with how to properly promote the
adoption of technology that may well force them to
re-invent themselves and AI (Artificial Intelligence)
and the various technologies that are rapidly
advancing so that we can actually deliver the safety,
environmental, mobility and quality of life
opportunities envisioned by these “Ultimate
Shared-Riding Machines”.
Save the Date for the 2nd Annual... May 16 & 17,
2018, Princeton NJ Read
Inaugural Program with links to Slides. Fishkin
Interview of Summit Summary and
Interview of Yann LeCun.
Read Inaugural Program with links to Slides. Hmmmm... Enormous thank you
to all who participated. Well done! Alain
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. Hmmm ... Watch Video especially at the 13:12 mark. Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above! Also see his TipRanks. Alain
This list is maintained by Alain Kornhauser
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University
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