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http://SmartDrivingCar.com/7.46-Maybe-110919

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Hailing a Driversless ride in a Waymo

E. Niedemeyer, Nov 1, "Congrats! This car is all yours, with no one up front,” the pop-up notification from the Waymo app reads. “This ride will be different. With no one else in the car, Waymo  will do all the driving. Enjoy this free ride on us!”  Moments later, an empty Chrysler Pacifica minivan appears and navigates its way to my location near a park in Chandler, the Phoenix  suburb where Waymo has been testing its autonomous vehicles since 2016.

Waymo, the Google  self-driving-project-turned-Alphabet unit, has given demos of its autonomous vehicles before. More than a dozen journalists experienced driverless rides in 2017 on a closed course at Waymo’s testing facility in Castle ... Doesn't count!... ; and Steve Mahan, who is legally blind, took a driverless ride in the company’s Firefly prototype on Austin’s city streets way back in 2015 ... Counts, but just as a 'one < 10 mile ride', (We'll assume that the road conditions weren't staged.)...  .

But this driverless ride is different — and not just because it involved an unprotected left-hand turn, busy city streets or that the Waymo One app was used to hail the ride. It marks the beginning of a driverless ride-hailing service that is now being used by members of its early rider program and eventually the public..."  Read more  Hmmmm...  Maybe!?   If it is, it is reasonably well hidden that my student wasn't able to find one that was being used in this way to try to verify that this is not just another staged event.  If this is really going to be an economically sustainable mobility service it is going to have to be able to deliver "millions" of rides without a driver, without an attendant and without staging. It would be nice to be able to just find one.  FYI: In Chandler on a typical day there are approximately a million person trips taken using a vehicle.  Across the nation there are about a billion.  See also Tim Lee's reporting of this trip.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 131

F. Fishkin, Nov. 9, "Hoping for a driverless ride from Waymo? So are Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this edition...Waymo, more trouble at Uber, the latest at Lyft and Tesla...and more! Tune in to Smart Driving Cars and subscribe."  Just say "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="107" height="21">  Thousands of Tesla Owners Share Their Close Calls With Autopilot

T. Randall, Nov 5, "We asked 5,000 Model 3 owners about Tesla’s software for automated driving on highways and parking lots. More than 90% said the feature makes them safer.... 

Six drivers claimed that Autopilot actually contributed to a collision, while nine people in the Bloomberg survey went so far as to credit the system with saving their lives. Hundreds of owners recalled dangerous behaviors, such as phantom braking, veering or failing to stop for a road hazard. But even those who reported shortcomings gave Autopilot high overall ratings....

Autopilot Puts Owners in Danger—And Saves Them From It
Explore owners’ close calls with Autopilot engaged" Read more  Hmmmm...  Very interesting.  Substantive 1st hand accounts that can be taken seriously.  See also Tim Lee's take on this. Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="51" height="53">  VEHICLE AUTOMATION REPORT

E. Becic, Nov. 5, "Uber ATG developmental ADS installed on the crash-involved vehicle was designed to operate in a fully autonomous mode only on pre-mapped designated routes. Although the system was designed to be fully automated along a specific route, a human operator located inside the vehicle was tasked with overseeing the operation of the system and monitoring the environment.  Unless stated otherwise, the ADS discussed in this report refers only to Krypton platform, software version 2018.071.3p1 that was installed on the crash-involved vehicle....

1.6 Object Detection and Hazard Avoidance
When ADS is activated, it performs all driving tasks, including changing lanes, overtaking slow moving or stopped vehicles, making turns, or stopping at traffic lights and stop signs.
1.6.1. Object Detection and Classification, and Path Prediction
As the ADS navigates and controls the vehicle along a designated route, the system continually monitors the environment for any objects, whether moving or stationary, on or outside a roadway. The detected objects are incorporated into the virtual environment, and the system dynamically updates the vehicle’s motion plan to avoid potential conflicts. Object detection is conducted primarily by the lidar, radar and camera systems, each of which has different specialized functions. When an object is detected, it is tracked, its heading and velocity calculated, and classified by the perception system. Detected objects can be classified as vehicles, pedestrians and bicyclists; a detected object may also be classified as “other”, indicating an unknown object....

However, if the perception system changes the classification of a detected object, the tracking history of that object is no longer considered when generating new trajectories. ...

When the system detects an emergency situation, it initiates action suppression. This is a one-second period ... one second is a very long time in an emergency situation...  during which the ADS suppresses planned braking while the (1) system verifies the nature of the detected hazard and calculates an alternative path, or (2) vehicle operator takes control of the vehicle. ATG stated that it implemented action suppression process due to the concerns of the developmental ADS identifying false alarm —detection of a hazardous situation when none exists—causing the vehicle to engage in unnecessary extreme maneuvers.   

Read more   Hmmmm... ... false alarms, aka mistakes, are the problem here.  Only with hindsight is a mistake identified.  So waiting any amount of time expecting to correct a mistake has no value.  If a 'better whatever' would have not made the mistake, why wasn't the 'better whatever' used in the first place?

Mistakes (false alarms) tend to be transient (short lasting) rather than persistent.  Plus, these systems re-evaluate everything 10 to 30 times a second.  Doing nothing while waiting for the system to stop making mistakes might be a valid design; however, the brakes take time to activate.  By the time a brake force actually begins to be applied, the system may well have stopped making mistakes thus suspending the brake action, maybe even before any discomfort is felt by those inside the car. All good.

If the mistakes are so persistent the brakes are not released and discomfort is felt in the car for no reason, then the system is simply not good enough to be used on public roadways.  Unfortunately it gets worse...

... if the collision cannot be avoided with the application of the maximum allowed braking, the system is designed to provide an auditory warning to the vehicle operator while simultaneously initiating gradual vehicle slowdown. In such circumstance, ADS would not apply the maximum braking to only mitigate the collision.  ... Unbelievable!!  Did Uber really say ...  crash faster??? Unbelievable!!

... Table 1. Selected parameters recorded by the ADS.  ... Please read.  This is really scary. Classification of objects is a very important objective of this algorithm.  Probably because future actions of object is assumed to be well correlated to object type.  Given an object,  its future behavior is better anticipated by an historical pattern assigned to that object rather than what has been observed about its behavior since it was first sighted.  That is why, if the classification changes of an object that is being tracked, its previous position and velocity data are disregarded.  I doubt that this approach has any merit, even if one could reliably classify objects in real time.  Seems like Uber tried to get fancy here but its capabilities were simply not up to the task. It couldn't reliably classify objects and even if it did, historic behaviors are unlikely to be better predictors of future behavior than simple extrapolations of recent observations. 

Using recent tracking data has to be better than . ... ADS predicts the object’s path as static... if the objects classification changes.  That is the big mistake!  In fact, only two classifications are needed: OK to hit versus Do NOT hit.  Track each (position, velocity, ...) and use the tracking data to predict each object's its future trajectory. 

But there is more...
1.9 Interaction Between Volvo ADAS and ATG ADS
When the SUV was operated in a manual mode—controlled by a vehicle operator—all the Volvo ADAS components were active and operated as designed. When the SUV was operated in the autonomous mode—controlled by the ADS—all Volvo ADAS components were automatically disengaged. ...

1.10 Crash History of the ATG Fleet of ADS-Equipped Vehicles
ATG shared records of fleet crash history with NTSB investigators. The records showed that between September 2016 and March 2018 (excluding the current crash), there were 37 crashes and incidents involving ATG test vehicles which at the time operated in autonomous mode. Most of these crashes involved another vehicle striking the ATG test vehicle—33 such incidents; 25 of them were rear-end crashes and in 8 crashes ATG test vehicle was side swiped by another vehicle.

In only two incidents, the ATG test vehicles were the striking vehicles. In one incident, the ATG vehicle struck a bent bicycle lane bollard that partially occupied the ATG test vehicle’s lane of travel. In another incident, the vehicle operator took control of the vehicle to avoid a rapidly approaching oncoming vehicle that entered the ATG vehicle’s lane of travel; the vehicle operator steered away and struck a parked car. In the remaining two incidents, an ATG vehicle was damaged by a passing pedestrian while the vehicle was stopped. ...To be fair, this is actually a really good crash history.   My interpretation is that the crash probability of the Uber ATG vehicles with trained operators behind the wheel is almost 10 times safer that of the driving public's overall crash probability.  (I don't buy the argument that these cars cause the driving public to hit them because of the way the automated system drives.)  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="28" height="24"> Report on Uber crash questions testing of self-driving cars

T. Krisher, Nov. 7. "  A National Transportation Safety Board report on the March 18, 2018 crash in Tempe, Arizona, that killed Elaine Herzberg, 49, found that the Uber self-driving system couldn’t determine if she was pedestrian, vehicle or bicycle. It also could not predict that she was jaywalking in the path of the moving SUV.

“The system design did not include a consideration for jaywalking pedestrians,” the agency said in its report, released ahead of a Nov. 19 board meeting to determine the cause of the Tempe crash.That, and the fact that Uber disconnected braking systems and relied on the human safety driver to stop the SUV in an emergency, shows that the Uber system wasn’t ready to be tested on public roads, experts say. Some say that stronger standards or more government regulation are needed to set standards before testing is allowed.

“These have to be much better than that before they can go out there (on public roads),” said Alain Kornhauser, chair of autonomous vehicle engineering at Princeton University. “If you can’t do better than that, stay on your test tracks. Don’t come out in public.”

Consumer Reports said the report showed “outrageous safety lapses” by Uber and called for stronger rules governing autonomous vehicle testing.  “We hope Uber has cleaned up its act, but without mandatory standards for self-driving cars, there will always be companies out there that skimp on safety,” Ethan Douglas, senior policy analyst for the magazine and website, said in a statement. “We need smart, strong safety rules in place for self-driving cars to reach their life-saving potential.”..."  Read more  Hmmmm... See above.  See also Tim Lee's take on this.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Lyft is adding Chrysler Pacificas to its AV fleet and opening a new dedicated self-driving test facility

D. Etherington, Nov. 8,  "Lyft  has another year of building out its autonomous driving program under its belt, and the ride-hailing company has been expanding its testing steadily throughout 2019. The company says that it’s now driving four times more miles on a quarterly basis than it was just six months ago, and has roughly 400 people worldwide dedicated to autonomous vehicle technology development.

Going into next year, it’s also expanding the program by adding a new type of self-driving test car to its fleet: Chrysler’s  Pacifica hybrid minivan, which is also the platform of choice for Waymo’s  current generation of self-driving car. The Pacifica makes a lot of sense as a ridesharing vehicle, as it’s a perfect passenger car with easy access via the big sliding door and plenty of creature comforts inside..."  Read more  Hmmmm... Sounds great! Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="46" height="39">  Uber faces costly choices after expert finds it uses Waymo self-driving tech

P. Dave, Nov 7, " Uber (UBER.N) said it “will likely” have to strike a licensing deal with Waymo or opt for costly changes to its autonomous driving software, after an expert found the ride-hailing giant still used technology from the Alphabet Inc (GOOGL.O) unit.  While it was unclear by when the company needed to decide on its next move in the blockbuster trade secrets dispute, Uber, in a quarterly securities filing on Tuesday, said that a detour in its software development “could limit or delay our production of autonomous vehicle technologies.”...

Waymo told Reuters in a statement that the independent software expert’s findings “further confirm Waymo’s allegations that Uber misappropriated our software intellectual property. We will continue to take the necessary steps to ensure our confidential information is not being used by Uber.”..." Read more  Hmmmm...  Really??? That's all Uber had to do to get Waymo to give it a licensing deal on its technology?   Doesn't seem that Waymo would want to do that unless the licensing deal was at least as valuable as the service that it enables.  The price for a goose that lays golden eggs is the price of the goose plus the net present value of the eggs that it produces ad infinitum.  Ironically, such pricing wouldn't help Uber reach profitability nor its ability to compete with Waymo One.   See also Tim Lee's reporting of this. Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Alphabet’s self-driving car project Waymo is shuttering its Austin operations

W. Feuer, Nov.8, "...The Alphabet subsidiary is removing employees at the facility and says it will offer them relocation to the company’s production center in Detroit, or to Phoenix, Arizona, where Waymo has a fleet of hundreds of self-driving cars. Those who do not wish to relocate will be offered a transition pay package. The move will affect fewer than 10 employees, but an undisclosed number of contractors also worked in the office. The relocations will not affect other Waymo employees around the country...

“Waymo is growing our investment and teams in both the Detroit and Phoenix areas, and we want to bring our operations teams together in these locations to best support our riders and our ride-hailing service,” a Waymo spokesperson said in a statement sent Friday to CNBC. “As a result we’ve decided to relocate all Austin positions to Detroit and Phoenix...."   Read more  Hmmmm...  I guess that they weren't welcomed, even thought they've tried to play nice for more than a few years.  Waymo should send the team to Princeton where we are working to create a welcoming environment for these mobility machines to affordably serve everyone, especially the mobility marginalized (the physically, mentally and/or financially challenged, the too young or too old to drive and those who prefer not to drive their own car), throughout Mercer County and eventually all of New Jersey.   See the excellent NBC  video that is embedded. Alain  

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Uber lost $1.1 billion last quarter, says rides are profitable (sort of)

T. Lee, Aug 28, "Uber lost another $1.1 billion in the third quarter of 2019, the company announced on Monday. This wasn't a surprise: Uber lost about the same amount in the first quarter of 2019 and lost even more last quarter.

Yet the company argues that things aren't as bad as that headline figure suggests. To show why, Uber broke its earnings down by business area, distinguishing its core "rides" app from Uber Eats, Uber Freight, and other operations.

Uber says that, if you exclude certain non-operating expenses—mainly interest, depreciation, and stock-based compensation—the "rides" app actually earned a substantial $631 million profit. That's enough to cover the company's core operating expenses, the company said. But Uber's profitability was dragged down by losses in its other businesses—mainly a $316 million loss from Uber Eats.

Of course, interest, depreciation, and stock-based compensation are real costs. So the fact that Uber looks less unprofitable excluding them isn't going to be particularly reassuring to Uber investors."  Read more  Hmmmm...Also read the comments.  Uber stock price is not pretty. Neither is Lyft's.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="103" height="14"> Uber stock hits new low as post-IPO lockup expires

H. Somerfield, Nov. 6, "Uber Technologies Inc. shares hit an all-time low Wednesday as the "lockup" period following its May initial public offering ended, delivering a blow to a company that has struggled to satisfy investors.

The expiration of the period sent a flood of shares onto the market, pushing the stock as low as $25.58, down 43% from its IPO price. While stock volatility and losses aren't unusual following lockup expirations, the loss of $2 billion from its market capitalization in 24 hours added injury to Uber after a lackluster earnings report this week... " Read more  Hmmmm...Yup!  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="41" height="32"> Just How Far Ahead Is Tesla In The Self-Driving Race?

Staff, Nov. 8, "... Tesla's total autonomous miles logged has grown exponentially from 0.1 billion in May 2016 to an estimated  1.88 billion as of October 2019...."  Read more  Hmmmm... Unfair to compare Tesla's Self-driving mileage with that of Waymo & GM/Cruise.  The functionality of Tesla's system is very much inferior to that of Waymo &  GM/Cruise.   None the less, the AutoPilot miles are impressive. Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="31" height="32">  Top 10 Myths About Autonomous Vehicles

A. Roy, Nov. 2, "Outlaw racer Alex Roy & roboticist Bryan Salesky sit with Sam Abuelsamid — Navigant Research Analyst, Forbes writer and one of the world’s leading experts on the automotive & technology sectors — to discuss and debunk the Top 10 Myths about Autonomous Vehicles...." Listen Hmmmm... Very interesting.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="110" height="23">  Watch Tesla Autopilot handle a construction zone with traffic cones

F. Lambert, Nov. 7, "A new video showing what Tesla Autopilot sees when navigating a construction zone gives an impressive look at Tesla’s evolving computer vision system.

Earlier this week, we reported on Tesla updating its driving visualization to detect and render traffic cones.  Tesla has been working on integrating construction zone navigation in Autopilot for a long time..."  Read more  Hmmmm...See video.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  'Smart pods' blaze a trail for autonomous public transport

K. Monks, Nov. 1, "The NEXT Future Transportation module is a far cry from the sleek visions of self-driving cars designed by Tesla or Mercedes.
With an average cruising speed of 20 kilometers per hour, the electric pods are unlikely to set pulses racing.
But perhaps the most crucial distinction is that this self-driving vehicle is passenger ready... "  Read more  Hmmmm...   Good images of many of today's drivered-driverless shuttles (each has an attendant on board).  Alain


Half-Baked

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Why autonomous vehicles will rely on edge computing and not the cloud

G. Anadiotis, Nov 4, "...Autonomy and cloud don't go well together
To understand why, let's consider the notion of autonomy. Autonomy is defined as 'independence or freedom, as of the will or one's actions'. Can you be autonomous, when relying on someone else's computer? Not really...."  Read more  Hmmmm...  That's why Edge doesn't cut it either.  Autonomy, by definition,  needs its own on-board dedicated computing; else it's constrained to locations that have Edge, making it not so autonomous.  Alain


 C'mon Man!  (These folks didn't get/read the memo)


Simply ClickBait


StupidSummon

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class=""> Alarming video shows driverless Tesla car cruising down a road the wrong way after being automatically ‘summoned’ by owner using smartphone app

I Randall, Nov. 7, "An alarming video shows a 'smart summoned' driverless Tesla Model 3 car tentatively trying to find its owner — while going down the wrong side of the road.  Stopping and starting — in the dead middle of the road at one point — the vehicle's ham-fisted driving is seen to attract the concerned attention of passersby.  This latest worrying exhibition of driverless tech was filmed in a shopping centre parking lot in Richmond, British Columbia...." Read more  Hmmmm...   See video.  So bad!! Please stop.  Alain


Corrections


Calendar of Upcoming Events:

Logo

7th Annual Florida Automated Vehicles Summit

November 20th-22nd, 2019
HILTON MIAMI DOWNTOWN
1601 BISCAYNE BLVD
MIAMI, FL 33132


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Recent Podcasts

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 130 with Dick Mudge & Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, Nov. 1, "An updated outlook for automated vehicles...Tesla, Waymo , Ford, VW and more. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by guests Michael Sena and Dick Mudge in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 129

F. Fishkin, Oct 27, "Elon Musk is telling Tesla owners that feature complete self driving is coming soon...and surprises Wall Street with a profit. And traffic deaths in the U.S. are declining. Is safety tech playing a role? Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more.. . "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 128

F. Fishkin, Oct 11, "Waymo advises Arizona riders that completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way. Very big news says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser in this week's edition of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. He adds...that they're betting the ranch. Also...Tesla not getting great reviews for Smart Summon, NJ Transit wants to get into the autonomous picture and more. "

Smart Driving Cars myPodcast Episode 127

F. Fishkin, Oct 6, "Tesla should park that new Smart Summon feature before it does some serious harm.  That's the view of Princeton University's Alain Kornhauser in the latest edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast with co-host Fred Fishkin.   Plus..the World Safety Summit on Autonomous Technology, testing an autonomous fleet in the U.K. and more. "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 126 - Sturges & Caudill

F. Fishkin, Sept 19 , "From the public library in Princeton, NJ... a special edition of the Smart Driving Cars podcast following a public forum conducted by Princeton Future on the potential for transit on demand for all. Join Princeton professor Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and special guests for that...plus...the latest on Waymo, Tesla, Hyundai, Aptiv and more. " Pictures from the Princeton Future Public Forum on Driverless  Mobility for All.

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 125

F. Fishkin, Sept 19 , "Waymo is providing thousands of rides in California..but when will truly driverless mobility begin? That and the latest on Tesla, Uber, Lyft, GM and more in this week's Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.Just say "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 123 - K. Kolodge JD Power

F. Fishkin, Aug 30 , "A J. D. Power study finds customer demand for safety technology threatened by overbearing alerts. Lead researcher Kristin Kolodge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus headlines from Tesla, NVIDIA, GM's Cruise, Lyft and Ford.  "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 122

F. Fishkin, Aug 30 , " The indictment of former Google and Uber engineer Anthony Levandowski, what Waymo's riders have to say and the latest on Toyota, Cadillac and more in the latest Smart Driving Cars podcast with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 121 - Ken Pyle

F. Fishkin, Aug 22 , "Daimler and Bosch hold a community meeting in San Jose as they ready plans for autonomous vehicle testing. Community board member Ken Pyle joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Waymo, Tesla and more."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 119

F. Fishkin, Aug 8 , "Uber and Lyft need driverless to have their businesses make sense. So says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser in the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..the latest from Tesla, Waymo and more."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 118 - Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, Aug 1, "Congress seeks help with self driving legislation, an acquisition by Ford, a breakthrough in vehicle data sharing in Europe and more! The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin in a new edition of Smart Driving Cars."  Just say "Alexa, play the Smart Driving Cars podcast!".  Ditto with Siri, and GooglePlay ...  Alain

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 116 - Jerome Lutin

F. Fishkin, July 20, "Can technology dramatically improve the safety of bus transportation for pedestrians, riders and drivers? The lead investigator in a national study, Jerry Lutin,  joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin on episode 116 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Plus...Tesla's new safety report, the latest from Lyft, Aptiv and a NY Times report on why driverless cars are taking longer than expected. Tune in and subscribe!."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 112 - J. Hardiman NJM

F. Fishkin, June 9, "Should the insurance industry be pushing more safety and autonomous tech in cars? It's a win, win says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser. Joining him in the discussion along with co-host Fred Fishkin is NJM's John Hardiman, a board member of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Also...Fiat Chrysler, Ford and more."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 110 - Lance Elliot

F. Fishkin, May 25, " The untold secrets of driverless car videos. Dr. Lance Eliot joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a liveley discussion. Plus...Waymo brings back self driving trucks, so will Daimler and is the future driverless for Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 108 3rd Summit Wrapup

F. Fishkin, May 18, "Wrapping up the 3rd annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on mobility for all and more. It's just getting started. Plus the headlines from Nissan, Tesla, Uber and Lyft. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 107 3rd Summit Leilei Shinohara & Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell

F. Fishkin, May 18, "In this special edition from the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit, Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by RoboSense VP Leilei Shinohara on the LiDAR's benefits. And view of autonomous technology from law enforcement with New York State Police
Staff Sergeant Terence McDonnell." 

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 106 3rd Summit David Kidd & Cecillia Feeley

F. Fishkin, May 18, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, David Kidd from the Highway Loss Data Institute joins Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin and then on site preliminary research results on mobility for all with Cecilia Feeley and Andrea Lubin from Rutgers.

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 104 3rd Summit Anil Lewis & Katherine Freund

F. Fishkin, May 18,, "From the 3rd Annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit, join Professor Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. In this special edition, the summit's focus on mobility for all with guests Anil Lewis, Executive Director of Blindness Initiatives at the National Federation of the Blind and ITN America Founder Katherine Freund.

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 100 - Andrei Greenawalt'99/Via

April 5, F. Fishkin, "The success of on demand transit company Via is proving that ride sharing systems can work. Public Policy head Andrei Greenawalt joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a wide ranging discussion. Also: Uber, Tesla, Audi, Apple and Nuro are making headlines"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 98- Matt Daus

April 5, F. Fishkin, "Here comes congestion pricing in New York City...but what will it mean? Former city Taxi and Limousine Commission head and transportation expert Matthew Daus joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Also...Tesla, VW and even Brexit! All on Episode 98 of Smart Driving Cars."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 97 - Michael Sena'69

March 28, F. Fishkin, "The Future Networked Car? From Sweden, The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest edition of Smart Driving Cars. Plus ...the Boeing story has much to do with autonomous vehicles and more. Tune in and subscribe."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 82 - Intel, Sciarappo & Jitsik, Loeb

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9,  "One of the top chip makers in the world and a start up. Intel's strategic marketing director for autonomous driving Jill Sciarappo and the founder of Jitsik, Dr. Helen Loeb join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for Episode 82 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast from CES."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 81 - nVIDIA, Shapiro & Local  Motors / Olli, Hodge

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9,  "How NVIDIA is paving the way for self driving cars and a new OLLI automated transport from Local Motors. NVIDIA's Senior Director for Automotive, Danny Shapiro and Kurtis Hodge of Local Motors join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for another edition of Smart Driving Cars from CES 2019.."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 75 - PAVE; Nantel, Erlich, Riccobono   

F. Fishkin,  Jan. 9,  "From CES in Las Vegas, a new industry organization, PAVE, is formed. Partners for Automated Vehicle Education. And some founding members join co-hosts Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and Fred Fishkin for an on site discussion. Guests include National Safety Council VP Kelly Nantel, Voyage VP Justin Erlich and National Federation of the Blind President Mark Riccobono."

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 71-Nader'55

F. Fishkin,  Dec. 13,  "When it comes to self driving cars, Ralph Nader says "Not so fast."  The renowned political activist and author takes the government and the industry to task in a super sized Episode 71 of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 69 - Chunka Mui

F. Fishkin, Nov 29,  "What will it take for driverless vehicles to become a leading form of transportation? Futurist and author Chunka Mui joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 69 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Waymo, GM, Amazon and more. Tune in and subscribe! "

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 68 - Dick Mudge

F. Fishkin, Nov 22,  "The insurance industry hears about the outlook for automated vehicles. Co-author Dick Mudge joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for Episode 68 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast. Plus...Uber, GM Cruise, Waymo, VW and more. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 66 - Bishop & Zimmerman

F. Fishkin, Nov 8,  "Daimler is partnering with Bosch to bring an autonomous ride hailing service to San Jose next year. In this edition, the Director of Engineering at Bosch joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to outline how it will work. Plus Richard Bishop joins us fresh from an International Task Force on Vehicle Highway Automation in Denmark. And more!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 65 - Bernard Soriano, CA DMV

F. Fishkin, Nov 1,  "California gives Waymo the green light for fully driverless vehicle testing on public roads and the state's deputy director of the Department of Motor Vehicles, Bernard Soriano, joins the Smart Driving Cars podcast with the no nonsense details. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore that and more. Tune in and subscribe!"

Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 58-Keith Code, Motorcycles

F. Fishkin, Sept 22  "In this edition of the Smart Driving Cars Podcast, Alain Kornhauser of Princeton University and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by the founder of the Superbike School, Keith Code. Keith is an instructor, coach, author and researcher into motorcycle safety...and a champion racer. Beyond that....he's an old high school friend of Alain's! And there's more on BMW, Apple, VW and more! . Tune in and subscribe!"

 Smart Driving Cars Podcast Episode 55-Larry Burns, Autonomy

F. Fishkin, Sept 6,  "The coming new world of driverless cars! In Episode 55 of the Smart Driving Cars podcast former GM VP and adviser to Waymo Larry Burns chats with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin about his new book "Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car and How it Will Reshape Our World"


Recent Highlights of:

[log in to unmask]" class="" width="129" height="76" border="0">

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="94" height="29"> An Update on the Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

R. Mudge, A. Kornhauser, October, 2019, "Reality has caught up with the hype/romance of the popular press concerning the future of automated driving. Disappearing is the vision of connected swarms of driverless personal cars flowing effortlessly down our arterials and freeways. The buying public, however, is beginning to absorb the driver-assisted technologies that not only deliver safety, comfort and convenience, but also serve to embolden the traditional consumer-oriented business model. This, in turn, has
helped accelerate private investment and technology partnerships that involve almost every automobile manufacturer.

On the Driverless front, reality has set in that complete removal of human oversight is a nontrivial hurdle. Except for possibly Tesla, all visions of driverless vehicles operating on public roadways involves a business model based on a professional fleet operator managing the vehicles rather than individual vehicles owned by consumers. All demonstrations and tests to date, be they for the movement of people or goods, involve some form of explicit human oversight by a trained on-board attendant or driver, or active remote-control oversight.  Worldwide, only Waymo has indicated that they are about to begin testing driverless mobility services in Arizona, without a safety driver.  That indication only surfaced in October of 2019... "  Read more  Hmmmm...  Summary of the way Dick & I see it. Original Outlook last November. Alain

Friday, Oct 25, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="110" height="23">  Elon Musk: Tesla Full Self-Driving in early access this year, without supervision next year

F. Lambert, Oct. 26, "Elon Musk has clarified Tesla’s timeline to achieve “Full Self-Driving,” which he thinks could be in the early access program, at least in a limited way, by the end of the year.

The CEO said: "Yeah, feature-complete, I mean, it’s the car able to drive from one’s house to work, most likely without interventions. So it will still be supervised, but it will be able to drive — it will fill in the gap from low-speed autonomy with Summon. You’ve got high-speed autonomy on the highway, and intermediate speed autonomy, which really just means traffic lights and stop signs."...

"So feature-complete means it’s most likely able to do that without intervention, without human intervention, but it would still be supervised. And I’ve gone through this timeline before several times, but it is often misconstrued that there’s three major levels to autonomy. There’s the car being able to be autonomous, but requiring supervision and intervention at times. That’s feature complete. Then it doesn’t mean like every scenario, everywhere on earth, including ever corner case, it just means most of the time."...

"While it’s going to be tight, it still does appear that we will be at least in limited early access release of a feature-complete Full Self-Driving feature this year. So, it’s not for sure, but it appears to be on track for at least an early access release of a fully functional Full Self-Driving by the end of this year."...

"And then, there’s another level which from a Tesla standpoint, we think the car is safe enough to be driven without supervision. Then the third level would be that regulators are also convinced that the car can be driven autonomously without supervision. Those are three different levels."... "Read more  Hmmmm...  So it will be the 'regulator's'  fault????  Reader Beware! All must be read very carefully, especially those that I highlighted.  It's a roll of the dice (that may be, most likely, doesn't mean, ... are loaded)!

Viewer Beware!   Interesting that the image used in this article doesn't have a bounding-box around the car immediately in front.  Isn't this the most important object in that image?  Nor is there one around the nearest stationary object in the lane ahead, the sign.  Has it already determined that the sign can be passed under? I doubt it! 

Elon, you sell cars to individuals at which point you relinquish control and responsibility, and thankfully, liability, for that car.    Please do everything that you can to be certain that your cars are used responsibly at all times and that those individuals are alert and in control at all times; else, you'll re-acquire the responsibility and the liability.  The burden of liability is not good for any business.  Liability without control is TrainWreck.  The regulators won't save you.  Alain 

Friday, October 18, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="48" height="25">  Waymo to customers: “Completely driverless Waymo cars are on the way”

K. Korosec, Oct 9, "Waymo,  the autonomous vehicle business under Alphabet, sent an email to customers of its ride-hailing app that their next trip might not have a human safety driver behind the wheel, according to a copy of the email that was posted on Reddit.

The email entitled “Completely driverless Waymo  cars are on the way” was sent to customers that use its ride-hailing app in the suburbs of Phoenix.

Both the early rider program and Waymo One service use self-driving Chrysler  Pacifica minivans to shuttle Phoenix  residents in a geofenced area that covers several suburbs including Chandler and Tempe. All of these “self-driving rides” have a human safety driver behind the wheel.
TechCrunch was able to confirm from Waymo that the email went out to members of Waymo’s early rider program.  The email is posted below....
    .... Here's what you can expect:
  • If you get matched with a fully driverless car, you'll see a notification in your Waymo app that confirms the car won't have a trained driver up front....
  • you can enjoy having the car all to yourself....
...  While driverless Waymo vehicles have been spotted periodically, they have never been used to shuttle the general public. The introduction of driverless vehicles would be milestone for the company.

And yet, there remains a number of questions. It’s unclear how many of these driverless rides there will be or the what constraints Waymo will place on them. It’s likely that these will operate in more simple, controlled environments for months before it expands to more complex situations."  Read more  Hmmmm... This is VERY big news!!!

It is not completely clear because "... the car won't have a trained driver up front..."  (She could be in the back)  even though it does say:  "...  you can enjoy having the car all to yourself..."   Also meaning... No shared rides!!!  No problem. This is the very beginning... One step at a time.  One hurdle at a time!!! 

Fundamentally it means to me that for the past whatever period of time, Waymos, in the Chandler/Phoenix Operational Design Domain (ODD), have been experiencing zero at-fault-crashes and essentially zero "disengagements"  to an extent that Waymo's lawyers have signed off that the risk of a crash that could have been averted by having an attendant on board is very much smaller than the benefit of being able to provide affordable mobility in the Chandler/Phoenix Operational Design Domain (C/P_ODD). 

I am certain that the Waymo lawyers understand very well that the risk of a crash has an extremely high cost.  The lawyers understand that much, if not all, of Adam Jonas' $70B reduction in valuation of Waymo and Uber's $60B reduction in valuation from Goldman's $120B peg can be attributed to one crash... the Elaine Herzberg crash.  Consequently, Waymo's staff must have provided the lawyers with credible evidence that the probability of a crash in this ODD is essentially infinitesimal.  (Of course, it would be nice to have that discussion/evidence made public, but I'm not holding my breath.)  Here We go!! Be conservative and be safe!!! Alain
 

Friday, October 11, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="156" height="24">  Your Tesla Can Now Pick You Up

R. Mitchell, Oct. 4, " Smart Summon is for parking lot use.  But drivers have other ideas.

Tesla unleashed the latest twist in driverless car technology last week, raising more questions about whether autonomous vehicles are outracing public officials and safety regulators.

...Using a smartphone, a person can now command a Tesla to turn itself on, back out of a parking space and drive to the smartphone holder's location - say at a curb in front of a Costco store.."  Read more  Hmmmm.... Russ, great article. A must read! 

Elon, please stop.  StupidSummon was a bad Valley-entitled idea before you released it.  Now that it is out there it will ruin all that is good about Tesla, AutoPilot and Driverless cars.  The shorters are going to have a field day.  

While you are at it also remove all of the DistractTainment add ons or limit their use when AutoPilot is NOT on and drivers are engaged in driving.  Just go back to V09!  Along the way also get the Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) system to work properly (See NTSB below).  To do that, maybe you should take a serious look at Velodyne's   new Tesla LiDAR.  It may be able to tell you if the stationary object in the lane ahead is high enough above the road surface before your AEB system decides to disregard it. Then Tesla's may stop decapitating drivers.

If you don't remove StupidSummon then at least be sure to limit its use to the Tesla owner's own private property by responsible users.  (You know the GPS coordinates of where each owner lives, so you can geofence it.  You also know each irresponsible use (You get the videos).  Irresponsible use (use in the violation of the conditions spelled out in the user's manual) should void its future availability in that car unless proper amend are made.  If not, then insurance companies should clearly state that insuring the use of this feature requires a substantial additional premium; else, you're not covered.  Courts should view that use of this feature implies premeditated harm and demonstrates an extreme indifference to human life.  Parking Lot owners should install signs forbidding the use of this feature on their property to protect themselves from being dragged into the claims process. 

What is most disturbing about this feature is that its only value is to enhance the self-perceived manhood of Entitled Silicon Valley XXs and may well cause the public sector to over react and ruin to opportunity of responsible driverless mobility to substantially enhance the quality-of-life of those who can't or choose not to drive a car, enhance the environment, subdue our energy use and reduce congestion.  Elon, shame on you

Saturday, September 28, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="116" height="32">Public forum will explore possibility of transit on demand in Princeton

K. Knapp, Sept 22, "What would it take to make Princeton an accessible community for all, even those who cannot or choose not to own or drive a car? Princeton Future will explore the question at a public forum from 9 a.m. to noon on Sept. 28 in the community room at the Princeton Public Library.

Princeton Future is a non-profit community group that studies issues related to planning, development, and affordability. Speakers will discuss the capabilities of a transit-on-demand system where small, driverless shuttles could be summoned by a smart phone app to a location within walking distance of a resident’s home...."  Read more  Hmmmm.... Listen to a summary of the event in Episode 126 of the SmartDrivingcars PodCasts. See below for other info. Alain

Friday, September 20, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Waymo’s robotaxi pilot surpassed 6,200 riders in its first month in California

K. Korosec, Sept 16, "Waymo  transported 6,299 passengers in self-driving ...drivered, not driverless...Chrysler Pacifica minivans in its first month participating in a robotaxi pilot program in California, according to a quarterly report the company filed with the California Public Utilities Commission.

In all, the company completed 4,678 passenger trips in July — plus another 12 trips for educational purposes. It’s a noteworthy figure for an inaugural effort that pencils out to an average of 156 trips every day that month.  And it demonstrates that Waymo has the resources, staff and vehicles to operate a self-driving vehicle pilot while continuing to test its technology in multiple cities and ramp up its Waymo One ride-hailing service in Arizona...

The CPUC authorized in May 2018 two pilot programs for transporting passengers in autonomous vehicles.  The first one, called the Drivered Autonomous Vehicle Passenger Service Pilot program, allows companies to operate a ride-hailing service using autonomous vehicles as long as they follow specific rules. Companies are not allowed to charge for rides, a human safety driver must be behind the wheel and certain data must be reported quarterly.

The second CPUC pilot would allow driverless passenger service — although no company has yet to obtain that permit...."Read more  Hmmmm.... Be sure to look at the Waymo Quarterly Report and that of the other 3 companies: Zoox, AutoX and Pony.ai.  Those 4 companies reported respectively [ 4,678; 103; 9; 0] vehicleTrips;  [ 6,299; 134; 13; 0] personTrips; [59,917; 352; ?; 0] vehicleMiles, and [ 55; 10; 1; 0] number of unique vehicles used throughout the quarter. Note Waymo only began operating on July 2, the last month of the quarter [May, June, July].  Note: the CPUC does not permit casual shared-ride services (serving individuals or groups of individuals who weren't predisposed to travel together).  Go figure???  Alain

Also note: This is Drivered Service, meaning there is an attendant/driver inside each vehicle for each trip; so this is actually conventional ride-hailing, a la Lyft/Uber with fancy schmancy vehicles.  The CPUC did NOT require "disengagement reporting" so one has no idea as to the extent of driver/attendant involvement is the provision of the Drivered service. It will be interesting to learn if Waymo considers this activity to be part of its AV testing program and includes the disengagement performance of these vehicles in its disengagement report to the CA DMV at the end of the year.  We'll be able to infer if that the disengagement performance is exemplary when Waymo decides to begin Driverless service (w/o an attendant, as opposed to Drivered service).

If Waymo wants the public to judge if they are really making progress towards driverless MaaS, they will make public the disengagement reports on their Drivered driverless services in California, Arizona and where ever they are providing Drivered driverless services. So should Uber, Lyft/Aptive, ... Alain

Friday, September 13, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  California Passes Landmark Bill to Remake Gig Economy

Friday, September 6, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="78" height="23"> Lessons Gleaned From The NTSB Report For A Tesla Autopilot-Engaged Car Crash

L. Elliot, Sept 4, "The NTSB has released its findings about a car crash that involved a Tesla Model S with its Autopilot-engaged that rammed into the back of a parked fire truck on a busy freeway in Southern California, occurring on a sunny morning of January 22, 2019...."  Read more   Hmmm...  While the "Factual Report of the Investigation" provides the background and some interesting tidbits, the important information is contained in the:
  • "Vehicle Data Recorder Specialist's Factual Findings": especially the charts of "Vehicle drive mode information": Figures 1 for the hour leading up to the crash and Figure 2, for just the 15 minutes prior.  It is very interesting to have the precision and richness of data of the vehicle's behavior prior to the crash.  Armed with this information, no wonder Elon wants to insure these cars.   What is most interesting about these data is the chart of Lead Vehicle Distance (m).  It shows that "lead vehicle distance" is not the instantaneous value obtained by the radar but some smoothed out value of { previous readings plus the latest radar value} (else, there would be some discrete jumps in the data when other cars either cut-in or cut-out of the Tesla's lane ahead.).  Moreover, the appearance of a stationary object (approach speed = Tesla speed) in the lane ahead is disregarded (or very lightly weighted) in the determination of "lead vehicle distance". (it grew to its saturated value (that was much greater than the distance to the firetruck) once the lead SUV had changed lanes (whenever that was determined to have occurred).  At some point (possibly 490msec before the crash, see below), the system decided that the stationary object detected ahead was not a "false reading" but actually a stationary object that should no longer be disregarded.  Since it was being disregarded the Traffic Aware Cruise Control (TACC) operated using a large value for "lead vehicle distance" so it began to accelerate to its desired cruise speed, as would be expected if "lead vehicle distance" is a large value.  Yipe!!!!!  If Elon hasn't already demanded, NTSB should require Tesla, and all other manufacturers, to: 1.  The software/logic governing TACC's behavior during  transitions involving a cut-out or a cut-in needs to be substantially improved!, and  2.  The reliability in the identification of stationary objects in the lane ahead needs to be substantially improved so that they cease to be assumed to be false alarms.   
  • "Vehicle Automation Data Summary Report": especially:
1.  Figure 4, The speed of the Tesla in the last 221 seconds before the crash showing that the Tesla was traveling rather slowly in the 100 seconds before the crash (under 20 mph), but then accelerated (as discussed above) in the 3 seconds just prior to the crash, beginning as soon as the lead SUV changed lanes,
2.  Figure 5,  the distance between the Tesla and its lead vehicle, showing that the TACC worked really well until the lead vehicle "disappeared" (changed lanes), and

3.  Figure 6  which clearly depicts the movement of the Tesla relative to the lead vehicle and the Firetruck in the 15 seconds before the crash.   The Tesla's radar and front facing camera mush have "seen' the firetruck 4 seconds before the crash and every sensing
loop (1/10th of a second) during the last 4 seconds yet...
"... Data show that at about 490 msec before the crash, the system detected a stationary object in path of the Tesla. At that time, the forward collision warning was activated; the system presented a visual and auditory warning. Data also shows that the AEB did not engage and that there was no driver-applied braking of steering prior to the crash. According to Tesla, the AEB was active at the time of the crash, and considering that the stopped fire truck was detected about half a second before impact, there likely was not sufficient time to activate the AEB."  ...This implies that the AEB and its functioning in collaboration with the TACC needs to be substantially re-evaluated/re-designed.  Alain

Friday, August 30, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  Former Star Google and Uber Engineer Charged With Theft of Trade Secrets

M. Isaac, Aug 27, "Anthony Levandowski was once one of Silicon Valley’s most sought after technologists.  As a pioneer of self-driving car technology, he became a confidant of Larry Page, a co-founder of Google, and helped develop the search giant’s autonomous vehicles. Uber wooed him to gain an edge in self-driving techniques. Venture capitalists threw their money at him.

But on Tuesday, Mr. Levandowski, 39, fell far from that favored stature. Federal prosecutors charged him with 33 counts of theft and attempted theft of trade secrets from Google. ...

The criminal indictment against Mr. Levandowski from the United States Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of California opens a new chapter in a legal battle that has embroiled Google, its self-driving car spinoff Waymo and its rival Uber in the high-stakes contest over autonomous vehicles. The case also highlights Silicon Valley’s no-holds-barred culture, where gaining an edge in new technologies versus competitors can be paramount....

According to the indictment, Mr. Levandowski downloaded more than 14,000 files containing critical information about Google’s autonomous-vehicle research before leaving the company in 2016. He then made an unauthorized transfer of the files to his personal laptop, the indictment said. Mr. Levandowski joined Uber later that year when the ride-hailing firm bought his new self-driving trucking start-up, which was called Otto....

“The Bay Area has the best and brightest engineers, and they take big risks,” John Bennett, the F.B.I. special agent in charge of the San Francisco Division, said at a news conference on Tuesday. “But Silicon Valley is not the Wild West. The fast-paced and competitive environment does not mean federal laws do not apply.”Mr. Levandowski’s next court date is Sept. 4. If he is convicted, he could face a maximum of 10 years in prison, a $250,000 fine for every count and additional restitution.

“All of us are free to move from job to job,” said David L. Anderson, United States attorney in the Northern District of California. “What we cannot do is stuff our pockets on the way out the door.”..."  Read more   Hmmm...  Central to this technology is the perception of personal safety and trust.  Lying, cheating & stealing can't be part of this industry, else it will never emerge from the venture stage.  If DeiselGate and the Uber crash weren't enough, let this be the next wake-up call to this industry to clean up its ethical behavior.  Hopefully the FBI will also aggressively pursue all cyber attackers. It isn't cute, nor a virtual reality game. It is hard serious work and creativity focused on improving the quality of everyday life. Alain

Friday, August 23, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Five myths about autonomous vehicles

J. Browne, Aug 16, "Autonomous vehicles are the future. Self-driving cars could change our lives, heralding an era of greater convenience, improved productivity and safer roads...."  Read more   Hmmmm....  Actually much of this opening sentence is a myth... It doesn't take Self-driving or Driverless to have automation technology yield safer roads.  It takes safe-driving technology that works, like Automated Emergency Braking (front and rear)...  And ... are we really going to do our "manufacturing or service job " (increase "productivity") if we don't have to do the work of driving anymore???  Of the few "riding shotgun to work" what percentage are doing work while riding shotgun?  Certainly less than 10%.  Less than 1%?  So much for productivity improvements 

If we get to Driverless, then the myths aren't myths.  There will be fewer private cars, downtown congestion will be reduced, the environment will be saved, the insurance industry's gross revenues will go down substantially  (but their profits will go up) and AVs are already safer than humans that text and/or are "under the influence" while driving. 

If we don't get to Driverless, then we'll remain with "Do-it-yourself private mobility" that will include Self-driving assistance.  Armed with that form of personal mobility, then all the myths are myths: More private cars ...   and the policy implications are clear.  See: J. M. Greenwald, A. L. Kornhauser "It’s up to us: Policies to improve climate outcomes from automated vehicles".   Also, to have a proper perspective of the role of transportation and car/"FordF150s" in greenhouse gas emissions see...  M. Sivak, Aug 22, "Increased relative contribution of medium and heavy trucks to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions"   Alain

Saturday, August 17, 2019

Autonomous Vehicles:  A View from Seniors

 Katherine Freund, August 2019, "...By the year 2060, approximately 100 million people, 25 percent of the US population will be 65 years of age and older.  In this age group, people outlive their decision to stop driving by about 10 years, and three out of four live in rural and suburban communities that lack the density for traditional mass transit solutions.  Their unmet transportation needs lead to social isolation, diminished quality of life, limited access to healthcare and a strain on families and caregivers.

It is apparent that our needs change as we age, but how they change, and in particular how our transportation needs change, is only generally understood.  Based on data from the ITNRides database and the ITNAmerica annual customer satisfaction survey, the typical ITN rider is a woman (74%) age 75 or older (71%) living alone in the community (58%).  She probably has a driver’s license (69%) and owns a car (59%), but there is only one chance in three she still drives (34%).  Her most common ride is for healthcare (39.5%), followed by consumer needs (23%) and recreation (10%). ..."  Read more   Hmmmm....  Another must read.  Chock full of fundamental facts.  Alain

Friday, August 9, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  Uber Posts $5.2 Billion Loss and Slowest Ever Growth Rate

K. conger, Aug 7,  "Uber set two dubious quarterly records on Thursday as it reported its results: its largest-ever loss, exceeding $5 billion, and its slowest-ever revenue growth.  The double whammy immediately renewed questions about the prospects for the company, the world’s biggest ride-hailing business. Uber has been dogged by concerns about sluggish sales and whether it can make money, worries that were compounded by a disappointing initial public offering in May.

For the second quarter, Uber said it lost $5.2 billion, the largest loss since it began disclosing limited financial data in 2017. A majority of that — about $3.9 billion — was caused by stock-based compensation that Uber paid its employees after its I.P.O.  Excluding that one-time expense, Uber lost $1.3 billion, or nearly twice the $878 million that it lost a year earlier. On that sariesme basis and excluding other costs, the company said it expected to lose $3 billion to $3.2 billion this year...Lyft has also reported a series of deep losses. This week, it said it lost $644.2 million in the second quarter, though it added that it expected that amount to abate. Several months earlier, Lyft had also posted a particularly steep loss related to stock-based compensation payouts to its employees..."  Read more   Hmmmm....  No wonder Uber looked so good prior to its IPO, it hadn't "paid" its employees.  So is this really a "one time" expense?? Anyway, Driverless is their only potential savior as a $40 stock. They can't afford to pay their employee, their gig workers can't feed families, new customers can't afford their prices and food delivery generates only chump change.  Uber Stock price, See also...Uber and Lyft keep losing money while driving up the number of cars on our overcrowded streets. Alain

Friday, August 9, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Cruise postpones plan to launch driverless taxi service in 2019

Sunday, July 21, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="113" height="21">  Tesla Vehicle Safety Report

Tesla, July 16, "At Tesla, we believe that technology can help improve safety. That’s why Tesla vehicles are engineered to be the safest cars in the world. We believe the unique combination of passive safety, active safety, and automated driver assistance is crucial for keeping not just Tesla drivers and passengers safe, but all drivers on the road. It’s this notion that grounds every decision we make – from the design of our cars, to the software we introduce, to the features we offer every Tesla owner.

Model S, X and 3 have achieved the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by the U.S. government’s New Car Assessment Program.

... In the 2nd quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.27 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.19 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.41 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 498,000 miles.... "  Read more   Hmmmm.... This summary uses "accident" for Teslas and "crash" for NHTSA.  This may suggest that the Tesla and NHTSA are not comp[arable... Tesla is reporting about apples and NHTSA is referring to "oranges".  That notes; however, it does seem that for Teslas with and without AutoPilot and the other active safety features, there is consistency in the measure.  A more detailed question arises about the equivalence of the driving domain for each category as well as who is at fault in each of these situations.  Even in light of these issues and details, the large variation in the rates: 3.27 v 2.18 v 1.41 is very significant among Teslas. Seems as if AutoPilot and Tesla's other active collision avoidance safety features are improving safety of Teslas. The spread from the 0.5 value for NHTSA is really astonishing making Teslas much safer than the average of all other cars. Unfortunately these numbers only scratch the surface and beg for more details. In the past I have called for an independent evaluation of the Tesla crash statistics and I do that again there today.   I'll offer to do it.  Tesla should encourage someone to do it. As it stands today, not enough people believe or trust Tesla (see below) Tesla. That's unfortunate because improved safety is THE major objective of SmartDrivingCar technology.  Alain

Friday, June 28, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="72" height="21"> Apple acquires self-driving startup Drive.ai

Saturday, June 8, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="50" height="39">  What Truck Drivers Think About Autonomous Trucking

Tuesday, May 28, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="133" height="21">  June 2019 Issue

Saturday, May 18, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="126" height="36">  Making Smart Vehicles to Improve the Human Condition

Sunday, May 12, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="197" height="16"> Self-driving car company Cruise raises $1.15bn


Friday, May 3, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  Congestion Pricing Plan for NYC is Coming!

Friday, March 29, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="155" height="20"> 10 Lessons From Uber's Fatal Self-Driving Car Crash

Sunday, March 17, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="116" height="32">Automated vehicles could provide mobility to the ‘mobility disadvantaged’

Friday, March 1, 2019

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="35" height="38">  FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT Lyft, Inc.

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">Autonomous Vehicles

Feb 25, " This workshop brought together experts in cyber-physical systems, machine learning, transportation engineering, and applied mathematics, both from academia and from industry, to help bridge the technical gaps and to facilitate exchange and collaboration across disciplinary boundaries..."  Read more  Hmmmm.... Slides and videos of the presentations are available here.   In particular, see..:

Friday, February 15, 2019

Thursday, November 22, 2018

 [log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="94" height="29"> Market Framework and Outlook for Automated Vehicle Systems

R. Mudge, A. Kornhauser, M. Hardison, Nov, 2018 "The surface transportation industry is in the early stages of a series of profound changes, stimulated by the development of increasingly sophisticated driving safety and automation technologies.   Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the speed with which these changes will take place and the nature of their impacts on safety, the overall demand for travel, vehicle sales, and vehicle ownership.  This report does not attempt to forecast the pace of these changes, instead advancing a list of “trigger points” that might serve as leading indicators of change....

What might these changes mean for actuaries and the insurance industry? Since Driverless vehicles will most likely be available only to fleet operators and not the general public, their actuarial and insurance implication will differ substantially from the implications of Safe and Self technologies that will be on vehicles purchased by consumers. But, will these vehicles continue to be insured in the same way as personal vehicles are today or will this practice change in some way. For example, if the burden of
liability shifts to the technology rather than the driver, then should actuaries focus on product liability rather than personal liability? To what extent does technology rather than personal behavior or demographics become the important link to liability? "
Read more  Hmmmm....  This is a very good report. Listen to SmartDrivingCar Podcast 68 with Dick Mudge. (Of course, I'm biased. Alain

Thursday, November 1, 2018

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="">  A Green Light for Waymo’s Driverless Testing in California

Wednesday, October 24, 2018

New Jersey Pending Legislation re: Autonomous Vehicles

Oct 16, Establishes fully autonomous vehicle pilot program A4573 Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14)

Oct 16, Establishes New Jersey Advanced Autonomous Vehicle Task Force AJR164 Sponsors:  Benson (D14); Zwicker (D16); Lampitt (D6)

Oct 16, Directs MVC to establish driver's license endorsement for autonomous vehicles A4541 Sponsors:  Zwicker (D16); Benson (D14); Lampitt (D6)..."  Read more Hmmmm.... Things are beginning to move in New Jersey.  Alain

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="39" height="43"> Testimony of Alain Kornhauser, Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM

[log in to unmask]" alt="" class="" width="42" height="39"> Audio Recording of Assembly Science, Innovation and Technology - Monday, October 22, 2018 - 10:00:00 AM


Friday, June 15,  2018

Tuesday, June 12,  2018

 CPUC AUTHORIZES PASSENGER CARRIERS TO PROVIDE FREE TEST RIDES IN AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WITH VALID CPUC AND DMV PERMITS

Sunday, June 3,  2018

  Waymo’s fleet of self-driving minivans is about to get 100 times bigger

Friday, May 25,  2018

PRELIMINARY REPORT: HIGHWAY: HWY18MH010 (Uber/Herzberg Crash)

May 24, "About 9:58 p.m., on Sunday, March 18, 2018, an Uber Technologies, Inc. test vehicle, based on a modified 2017 Volvo XC90 and operating with a self-driving system in computer control mode, struck a pedestrian on northbound Mill Avenue, in Tempe, Maricopa County, Arizona.

...The vehicle was factory equipped with several advanced driver assistance functions by Volvo Cars, the original manufacturer. The systems included a collision avoidance function with automatic emergency
braking, known as City Safety, as well as functions for detecting driver alertness and road sign information. All these Volvo functions are disabled when the test vehicle is operated in computer control..." Read more  Hmmmm.... Uber must believe that its systems are better at avoiding Collisions and Automated Emergency Braking than Volvo's.  At least this gets Volvo "off the hook". 

"...According to data obtained from the self-driving system, the system first registered radar and LIDAR observations of the pedestrian about 6 seconds before impact, when the vehicle was traveling at 43 mph..." (= 63 feet/second)  So the system started "seeing an obstacle when it was 63 x 6 = 378 feet away... more than a football field, including end zones!   

"...As the vehicle and pedestrian paths converged, the self-driving system software classified the pedestrian as an unknown object, as a vehicle, and then as a bicycle with varying expectations of future travel path..." (NTSB: Please tell us precisely when it classified this "object' as a vehicle and be explicit about the expected "future travel paths."  Forget the path, please just tell us the precise velocity vector that Uber's system attached to the "object", then the "vehicle".  Why didn't the the Uber system instruct the Volvo to begin to slow down (or speed up) to avoid a collision?  If these paths (or velocity vectors) were not accurate, then why weren't they accurate?  Why was the object classified as a   "Vehicle" ??  When did it finally classify the object as a "bicycle"?  Why did it change classifications?  How often was the classification of this object done.  Please divulge the time and the outcome of each classification of this object.  In the tests that Uber has done, how often has the system mis-classified an object as a "pedestrian"when the object was actually an overpass, or an overhead sign or overhead branches/leaves that the car could safely pass under, or was nothing at all?? (Basically, what are the false alarm characteristics of Uber's Self-driving sensor/software system as a function of vehicle speed and time-of-day?)  

"...At 1.3 seconds before impact, (impact speed was 39mph = 57.2 ft/sec) the self-driving system determined that an emergency braking maneuver was needed to mitigate a collision" (1.3 x 57.2 = 74.4 ft. which is about equal to the braking distance. So it still could have stopped short.

"...According to Uber, emergency braking maneuvers are not enabled while the vehicle is under computer control, to reduce (eradicate??) the potential for erratic vehicle behavior. ..." NTSB:  Please describe/define potential  and erratic vehicle behavior   Also please uncover and divulge the design & decision process that Uber went through to decide that this risk (disabling the AEB) was worth the reward of eradicating " "erratic vehicle behavior".  This is fundamentally BAD design.  If the Uber system's false alarm rate is so large that the best way to deal with false alarms is to turn off the AEB, then the system should never have been permitted on public roadways. 

"...The vehicle operator is relied on to intervene and take action. " Wow!  If Uber's system fundamentally relies on a human to intervene, then Uber is nowhere near creating a Driverless vehicle.  Without its own Driverless vehicle Uber is past "Peak valuation".  

"...The system is not designed to alert the operator. " That may be the only good part of Uber's design.  In a Driverless vehicle, there is no one to warn, so don't waste your time.  If it is important enough to warn, then it is important enough for the automated system to start initiating things to do something about it.  Plus, the Driver may not know what to do anyway.  This is pretty much as I stated in PodCast 30 and the March 24 edition of SmartDrivingCar, See below.Thursday, May 10,  2018

Thursday, April 26,  2018

 This startup’s CEO wants to open-source self-driving car safety testing

Saturday, March 24,  2018

Experts say video of Uber's self-driving car killing a pedestrian suggests its technology may have fail

Tuesday, April 17, 2017

  Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

[log in to unmask]" alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.36&filename=ajafjpkfaclhelpc.png" class="" width="44" height="50" border="0">Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

Sunday, December 19, 2015

[log in to unmask]" alt="imap:[log in to unmask]:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E3022058?part=1.38&filename=ccalfjfhllohpdpa.png" class="" width="96" height="63" border="0">Adam Jonas' View on Autonomous Cars

Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1.  Hmmm ... Watch Video  especially at the 13:12 mark.  Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment above!  Also see his TipRanks.  Alain


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