2022-01-28

January 28, 2022

January 28, 2022
4th edition of the 10th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

New Jersey Pioneers Transportation Solutions For Mobility-Marginalized Communities

S. Rangwala, Jan 25, “… The NJ Department of Transportation recently announced the “Trenton MOVES” project. MOVES stands for “Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System” - and is designed to eliminate transportation inefficiencies that exist in various under-served communities in the state. Public transportation exists in New Jersey - however, using it to commute certain routes is highly inefficient and expensive. For example, in locations like Trenton where car ownership per household is minimal (zero or one), commuting to well-paying jobs (for example to an Amazon warehouse 15 miles away in Robbinsville which pays $21/hour) would take 2-3 transfers via public transport and consume an average of 90 minutes each way. This hinders employment and upward mobility. “ Read more Hmmmm… Yup! Alain

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 253, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Jan. 27, “The Federal Trade Commission looks to level the tech playing field…but “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena has some words of warning. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo and more on Episode 253 of Smart Driving Cars..”

Technical support provided by: https://www.cartsmobility.com/

The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University’s Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative

February 2022 Issue: California DMV has woken up

M. Sena, Jan. 26, “The January 15th issue of The Economist arrived as I was finishing up the lead article for the February issue of The Dispatcher. The Economist issue’s theme, printed on the cover, is: Beware the bossy state - Government, business and the new era of intervention. The lead article and a Special Report insert titled Interventionism, provided excellent additional material with which to test my own thoughts on the new attitude to big tech at the FTC. Although I disagree with The Economist’s relaxed attitude toward China and its staunch support for congestion charging, we are definitely on the same page when it comes to the role of good government and its relationship to business and citizens. If you don’t feel you have time to read my lead article, you can skim down to the last sentence in the article on page 20 and you will get the gist. Hopefully, that will increase your energy level so you will start from the top.

In Dispatch Central I discuss how a State with good intentions can get distracted. California wanted to take control over the testing of self-driving and driverless cars on its roads, but it gave companies (read that Tesla) a loophole by using the term ‘autonomous vehicles’. I realize mine is a voice in the wilderness when it comes to trying to convince people to stop using this term, but I will not stop trying. I have tried to balance the serious with some lighter fare, so give this section a full read….” Read more Hmmmm… Wonderful, check out PodCast 253/ZoonCast 253 with Michael focused on this issue of The Dispatcher. Alain

Episode 94 - Ivy League Insights: Professor Alain L. Kornhauser and the Study of Autonomy

G. Brulte, Jan. 27, “When you’ve been studying mobility and advanced technology for over 50 years at one of the nation’s leading universities, you might just qualify as a go-to expert in the field.

In this episode of SAE Tomorrow Today, we spoke with the legendary Dr. Alain Kornhauser, Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering, and Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering, Princeton University.

With a career that has spanned over half a century, Dr. Kornhauser has been studying the possibilities of rapid transit in the urban environment since the 1970s. As the progenitor of the Princeton Transportation Network Model, he was one of the early proponents of leveraging Geographic Information Systems in the study of transportation systems, and his work has had a significant effect on the North American freight railroad system. Among the many highlights of his career, he founded ALK Technologies, Inc. which brought to market the roadway and railway systems digital map database credited as being used by the majority of North American railroad and trucking companies. Among his more recent endeavors, he has turned his focus on autonomous taxi and urban transit to enable more widespread mobility.

In the discussion that follows, Dr. Kornhauser shared his thoughts on recent developments in the autonomous market, his experiences leading the Princeton team in several DARPA Challenges, how his career trajectory towards autonomy has developed over time, and where he sees the future of mobility headed. School’s now in session….” Read more Hmmmm… Nothing you didn’t already know., and not bad, if may say so myself 😉😎 Audio file, video clip. Alain

Waymo sues DMV to keep robotaxi safety details secret

R. Mitchell, Jan. 28, “Waymo, the driverless car company operating an autonomous taxi fleet in San Francisco, is suing the California Department of Motor Vehicles. The immediate issue: whether the company, owned by Google parent Alphabet Inc., can hide from the public safety-related information by designating it as a trade secret.

The topics Waymo wants to keep hidden include how it plans to handle driverless car emergencies, what it would do if a robot taxi started driving itself where it wasn’t supposed to go, and what constraints there are on the car’s ability to traverse San Francisco’s tunnels, tight curves and steep hills. Waymo also wants to keep secret descriptions of crashes involving its driverless cars….” Read more Hmmmm… Please read on. But what a shame!

Here we have Waymo/Alphabet, who by most accounts is way out in front, wanting to keep for itself Intellectual Property (IP) so as to maximize shareholder value. A laudable, and likely legal, position to take.

Above we have Michael Sena arguing that social welfare/public good should be the objective that regulators/legislators use to control large and small corporations. The argument being, that cooperation rather than competition may lead to both better public good and better shareholder value. Thus a win-win!

Safety may well be the “poster-child’ opportunity for such a theory and Waymo is going into it kicking & screaming rather than embracing it in order to even further increase its lead.

I and many others have argued that Safety is an absolute necessary condition that must be achieved else this technology is never going to see the light of day. Since “Safety” is one of those concepts that can only be achieved in “the limit as time goes to infinity”, It is a really tough “necessary condition”. Consequently, one can’t be unsafe, AND, nor can anyone else. The humiliation rubs off on everyone in the business.

Waymo’s action here must be that they don’t get the “nor can anyone else” clause. (Waymo/Alphabet is a rational entity; thus, whatever it decides to do at any point in time must be what it decided was the best thing to do at that time; else, it would have done something else. There is only one reality! (I think?) )

If Waymo/Alphabet did get the “nor can anyone else” clause, it would be divulging openly all of its Safety-related IP and leading and effort to get everyone else to divulge theirs, so that the industry as a whole would be actively working together to become as safe, as possible, as soon as possible, so as to really deliver the most social welfare and public good as soon as possible. Given that Waymo is at or near the competitive front, it seems to me, and to the most casual observer, that this approach is most likely to lead to delivering the greatest shareholder value.

But since they are actively choosing to keep their safety secrets to themselves I must be wrong 😅.

OK, I’m wrong, but look at what they are trying to keep secret…

• How Waymo plans to handle emergencies … Maybe??? Seems doubtful that they have a secret sauce here.

• What to do if a vehicle goes off-route… Maybe??? Seems doubtful that they have a secret sauce here either.

• Go through a tunnel… Seems like one only has 2 choices… other than… don’t use the tunnel in the first place. Maybe I can deliver value to 99% of my potential customers, be successful without the tunnel and leave the tunnel to my competitors who can’t serve the 99% that I’m serving very well. I’m really missing something. Tunnel in my mode-share model and I get how many more customers??? I’ve been in academia too long. Whew!

• Tight curves, (something better than slow down???)

• Steep hills… how well are you doing serving the potential customers that don’t live on steep hills. Are serving the 1% of 1%er that live at the top of steep hills or at the dead end streets really going to contribute to increased shareholder value???

• What is really going on in the “deep learning AI” model… Waymo doesn’t know, no one knows. Why do I sometimes get confused? Don’t know. Why am I confused here??? Why my AI is confused. If they know, then that is really secret sauce.

From my perch, I just don’t see any of the things that Waymo is trying to keep as a competitive advantage has any chance of increasing Alphabet’s shareholder value AND Waymo is passing up an enormous opportunity to lead and be rewarded for delivering more public welfare and shareholder value earlier. Seems like a win-win-win-win…

I must have slept through the first lecture and missed the fundamentals. I’m confused.

Irrespective of the above… my position has been that the industry should cooperate/collude on Safety and regulators/legislators should empower/enable them to cooperate/collude on Safety. They can and should compete on everything else, like market pricing.

Alain

The self-driving car industry is abandoning the term ‘self-driving’ and leaving it to Tesla

Jan. 26 A. HJawkins, “So long, Self-Driving Coalition for Safer Streets; hello, Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association!

The AV industry’s top lobbying group in Washington, DC is rebranding, dropping the reference to “self-driving” in exchange for a more straightforward moniker. The group, which was founded in 2016 by Waymo, Ford, Lyft, Uber, and Volvo, lobbies lawmakers to pass legislation favorable to its members. It has since grown to include the top AV operators in the country, including Cruise, Aurora, Argo AI, Motional, Nuro, and Zoox….” Read more Hmmmm… Wow! From the frying pan into the fire. Using “Autonomous Vehicle” as the new moniker seem to be upping the Silicon Valley hype instead of a “more straight name. None on these initiatives will ever be “autonomous”. They’ll always be subject to the oversight of a human operator (CA law requires it!!!), oversight of a human public agency, oversight of human stock holders. The term “autonomous” is Silicon Valley hype complete with smoke and mirrors. At least Elon’s Teslas do sometimes drive themselves under the supervision of a human driver. One just needs to read the fine print.

The only fine print that one might be able to find about the term “autonomous” in the context of providing mobility is that it never has “… the freedom to govern itself or control its own affairs…”. It simply will never have a “world view” that is broad enough to enable it do that. An amoeba will always has a broader world view. At least it knows that it has to eat to live. An “autonomous” car… Clueless!

A more truthful name for this lobbying group might be Coalition for Improved Mobility for People and Goods. Please stop with the Silicon Valley Smoke & Mirrors hype. It’s not about the How, but What the How produces. Why doesn’t Silicon Valley get it? Maybe it’s because a long-term desirable What is rarely produced by a SV focused only on the “Flip”??? Alain

Respected Automated Driving Expert Gives Tesla FSD Beta An “F”

J. Torchinsky, Jan. 19, “…Templeton has been in the driving automation space for years, and I think he’s someone with a perspective worth listening to when it comes to automated driving. He recently became one of The Chosen to get Tesla’s FSD Beta software to try, and he found it “terrible. I mean really bad.” He explains his reasoning in a video with examples, so, you know, if you’re filling up with rage, maybe just take a moment to watch it.

Templeton used FSD Beta version 10.8 on his 2018 Model 3, and conducted his tests on a relatively unchallenging 3.5 mile loop around Cupertino, California, near Apple’s headquarters. This is significant in that this area is not far away from native Tesla lands, in conditions the software should presumably be very used to, and weather, light, and visibility were all pretty close to optimal.

Despite all this, FSD Beta still drove the car jerkily, made confusing and sometimes downright incorrect decisions, inconvenienced other drivers, and, at one point, even attempted to make a left turn on a red light….” Read more Hmmmm… Brad, an F??? Ouch!!! See video. Alain

Tesla Now Runs the Most Productive Auto Factory in America

T. Randall, Jan 24, “Elon Musk has a very specific vision for the ideal factory: densely packed, vertically integrated and unusually massive. During Tesla Inc.’s early days of mass production, he was chided for what was perceived as hubris. Now, Tesla’s original California factory has achieved a brag-worthy title: the most productive auto plant in North America.

Last year Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California, produced an average of 8,550 cars a week. That’s more than Toyota Motor Corp.’s juggernaut in Georgetown, Kentucky (8,427 cars a week), BMW AG’s Spartanburg hub in South Carolina (8,343) or Ford Motor Co.’s iconic truck plant in Dearborn, Michigan (5,564), according to a Bloomberg analysis of production data from more than 70 manufacturing facilities….” Read more Hmmmm… Impressive. But it is supposed to be so much easier to make an EV than an ICE (where does a hybrid fit? Likely not between but beyond???). Alain

Tesla (TSLA) releases Q4 2021 financial results: beat expectations with over $2 billion in profit

F. Lambert, Jan. 26, “Tesla (TSLA) has released its financial results and shareholders letter for the fourth quarter of 2021, and consequently for its full-year 2021, after market close today.

We are updating this post with all the details from the financial results, shareholders’ letter, and the conference call later tonight. Refresh for the latest information….” Read more Hmmmm… Impressive. How is the competition doing???? 😎 Alain

NTSB chief to fed agency: Stop using misleading statistics

H. Yen, Jan 18, “With traffic fatalities spiking higher, the nation’s top safety investigator says a widely cited government statistic that 94% of serious crashes are solely due to driver error is misleading and that the Transportation Department should stop using it.

Jennifer Homendy, the chair of the National Transportation Safety Board, told The Associated Press on Tuesday that she’s surprised the wording remains on the department’s website even as the Biden administration pledges to embark on a broader strategy to stave off crashes through better road design, auto safety features and other measures….” Read more Hmmmm… What??? One person is mis-stating what another person actually stated both of which are likely wrong.

I’ll throw in there what may also be a mis-statement that “The “lion’s share” of serious and non-serious road vehicle crashes involve mis-behavior by the human operator (aka human driver) of at least one of the so-involved road vehicles.

However one states it, when drivers don’t mis-behave, things are pretty good.

We’ve done a pretty good job of protecting the mis-behaving entity through our crash mitigation initiatives (seat belts, airbags, energy absorbing vehicle and road furniture designs. Unfortunately we’ve done very little to safeguard those that are crashed-into by those mis-behaving drivers. Those individuals have been saved by NHTSA’s crash mitigation efforts

Unfortunately, NHTSA, NTSB and “Washington” have done precious little to help the innocent bystanders that are crashed into. They’ve barely talked about reigning-in the mis-behaviorers and precious little in promoting the use of automated systems that can intervene to over-ride driver misbehavior or saved the day by avoiding, not just mitigating, crashes. At least IIHS has started to rate Automated Driver Assistance systems. Even though Tesla, by mis-representing its self-driving capabilities, encourages a few to really mis-behave; on-balance, Tesla may well be the safest car on the road.

Instead of worrying about how something is said, what about some substantive action and support from NTSB to reduce misbehavior, mitigate the effects on those being crashed into and begin to embrace going beyond crash mitigation to crash avoidance. Alain

IIHS to Introduce New Ratings for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

E. Segura, Jan. 24, “In the wake of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) becoming widely available in late model vehicles, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety is adding a new ADAS ratings program. IIHS will evaluate the safeguards using Good, Acceptable, Marginal, and Poor grades….” Read more Hmmmm… Great that today’s “Best” is at most only “Good” because today there is enormous room for improvement to be achieved above today’s “Best”. Today’s “Good”, for some reason, needs hands on the wheel, but no “requirement for one’s feet. So if I have my feet up my …. and can’t hit the brake soon enough, I’m OK???? I prefer to stop short of a collision rather than swerve around it at high speed. Am I the only guy who fears roll-overs?? Alain

L.A. Just Ran (and Ended) the Biggest Free-Transit Experiment in the U.S.

A. Walker, Jan 19, “In March 2020, Los Angeles’ public-transit agency, Metro, stopped collecting fares on its buses as a COVID-19 safety precaution. For the next 22 months, Metro waived fares for anyone who wanted to keep riding its buses, anywhere they wanted to go (as long as they wore a mask, of course). And people did keep riding. Outside of the initial stay-at-home order in the spring of 2020, Metro’s ridership never dipped below 50 percent of before-times ridership, with buses eventually recovering to within 10 to 15 percent of pre-pandemic numbers. While the agency doesn’t know exactly how many people were riding fare-free buses during this time — because fare collection is one of the ways to track ridership — a spokesperson says that from April 2020 to December 2021, it’s safe to say Metro’s buses provided about 281 million fare-free boardings. This means the agency has inadvertently been conducting what may be the biggest free-transit experiment in U.S. history. Fare collection restarted last week after two unprecedented years in which transit agencies learned a lot about how people moved (or didn’t) around their cities, and now Metro is using some of this information to game out improvements and pilot other free- and reduced-fare programs….” Read more Hmmmm…“… it’s fair to say…”??? Really??? Transit systems have “always” done a terrible job collecting data about how customers use their services because detailed data are not likely to be very complementary. Few buses are full “downtown”. Those that are, are empty at the other end of their route and therefore are roughly half full on those routes. The many/most that are much less than full downtown are also empty at the other end and thus less/way less than half full on those routes at those times. Thus half-full is very much a glass ceiling. Truth may well be something one might prefer to not know.

Now we learn that “… it’s fair to say… (which deserves 3-digit “accuracy”???)” that over the span of 640 days, 281M boardings, or an average of about 125,000 per day. Metro supposedly has a fleet of ~2,320 buses (notice 3-digit “accuracy”) so each bus served on average 190 person-trips per day over that 640 span (assuming no transfers, which is a good assumption.).

That’s actually a pretty good number because if each one of those passengers just pitched in $1 that’s enough to cover each driver’s take-home pay of about $50k/year (~250 work days/year). The question I have is how did they arrive at the a 3-digit accuracy that’s only “… fair to say…”.

The broader issue is that those 2,300 buses cost a lot more to operate than the take-home pay of the driver. There are overhead costs associated with having drivers and the assumption that each bus is operated (customers have to support) only one driver is substantially optimistic. The other 115 days a year beyond 250 have to be covered by another driver that needs to be paid and to capture 190 person-trips a day, a bus is likely operating over 2 shifts. Thus one likely needs a contribution of something that looks more like $5 from each customer (overhead is 2x, 2-shifts is 2x and 50% more days makes it roughly 5x) and one hasn’t started paying for the buses, garage, maintenance, fuel, ….)… and that’s if the “281M” is close to correct. Forget about it being free and those that ride buses are critical workers that have to go dig ditches, sweep floors, do dishes, care for the sick.

U.S. hybrid electric car sales hit record highs

H. Jin, Jan. 6, “… Sales of EVs also jumped 83% to 434,879, but represented a meager 3% of the market….” https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-hybrid-electric-car-sales-hit-record-highs-2022-01-06/

Hmmmm… This can’t be right. Tesla claims they sold a million. I know that’s worldwide, but… Are these the right numbers? If they are, the other OEMs are each far (10x) behind. You decide. Alain

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Tesla unveils fleet of new ‘Tesla Semi’ electric trucks

F. Lambert, Jan. 26, “Tesla has quietly unveiled a fleet of new ‘Tesla Semi’ electric trucks as part of its new financial result report. Yet, there’s no word on the status of production and customer deliveries. The situation around the Tesla Semi has been unclear over the last few months. The electric truck has already been delayed several times, as it was originally supposed to be delivered in 2019…..” Read more Hmmmm… Only 4 are shown. A “Nikola moment” ???? 😎 Alain

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Making it Happen: Trenton MOVES… a Framework for the Deployment of Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility

A. Kornhauser, Jan 11 TRB, “A slide deck describing the framework for a phased deployment of high-quality mobility in Trenton New Jersey that is envisioned to have wherewithal to naturally scale beyond Trenton in a fashion that can be replicated the more than 100 communities across the US that have similar demographic and travel demand characteristics.” Read more Hmmmm… Go through the slides in presentation mode to take advantage of the animations. See… SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 251/A. Kornhauser: Making it Happen: Trenton MOVES… a Framework for… Alain

December 11, 2021

Press Release… REQUEST FOR EXPRESSION OF INTEREST: Trenton MOVES

P. Murphy, Dec. 6, “The New Jersey Department of Transportation (“NJDOT”), an instrumentality of the State of New Jersey, has issued a Request for Expression of Interest (“RFEI”) to identify experienced firms capable of introducing a safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, and efficient on-demand automated vehicle mobility systems in and beyond Trenton, NJ.

NJDOT is soliciting written Expression of interest from qualified and experienced vendors to gain valuable insight from the private industry regarding the goals set forth in the Trenton MOVES (Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System) potential project and assess its viability.

If and when NJDOT elects to proceed with a potential project, NJDOT may issue formal Request(s) for Qualifications or Proposals.

The RFEI is available to be downloaded at https://www.nj.gov/transportation/business/procurement/ems/current.shtm…

1. Potential Project Summary

The State of New Jersey is exploring a transportation equity and sustainable energy opportunity within the capital city of Trenton. Trenton MOVES (Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System) will be led by the Governor’s Office, NJ Department of Transportation, the City of Trenton, and one or more institutions of higher education.

Trenton MOVES is exploring the feasibility of deploying ~100 AVs to serve as low-capacity (4-8 passenger), high-quality (on-demand, kiosk-to-kiosk) shuttles to serve the 90,000 residents who live in the City of Trenton’s 8 square miles. The effort will be phased in over two (2) years and will serve the population of New Jersey’s capital city, a population where 70% of households have one or fewer cars. A proof-of-concept Operational Design Domain (“ODD”) is described in Section 3.1. … “Read more Hmmmm… How fantastic is this! Plus, Governor Phil Murphy’s Press Release announcing Trenton MOVES. All substance!! I also presented relevant testimony to NJ’s Assembly Transportation Committee Thursday morning. An ALK trifecta this week😁. The “welcoming environment” now exists in New Jersey. We are no longer tied for last with Mississippi as was reported at last week’s Florida AV Conference. We’re looking like “first in the world” focused on substantive deployment to real customers. We’ve built the “Field of Dreams” and awaiting the technology “to come”. We only need one! Or we’ll assemble volunteers (and not hostages as Mike Tomlin would put it) and build a winning team ourselves.😎 Alain

Orf 467F21 Symposium: Evolutionary Deployment of a State-wide aTaxis system starting from MyVillage

J. Woll’22, A. Lau’23, M. Wasserman’22, C. Larson’22, J. Sun’23, Dec. 10, “Slides of: Making It Happen”: Hawaii - California - Washington - Florida - Connecticut” Read more Hmmmm…Video of Presentation, Slides, Report Format. I couldn’t be more proud. Also check out Pod-Cast Episode 246, Zoom-Cast Episode 246 w/Jack Woll’22, Jason Sun’232, and Connor Larson’22😁 Alain

Trenton MOVES: Community Engagement Update

J. He, Dec. 15, “Vignettes from Community Engagement focus groups.” Read more Hmmmm… Why Trenton! Alain

5th Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit: Deployment of Safe, Equitable Affordable, Sustainable, High Quality Mobility throughout New Jersey

Date Change: Thursday evening, May 5, through Saturday May 7, 2022. Live in Trenton, New Jersey.

“Everything” was going well wrt the 5th Summit Nov 18->20; however…

Time is very short, we must focus on the election and the realities of where we remain with Covid really put cold water on some aspects of our vision for November.

Consequently. I’ve become convinced that it is very much better, that we take our time and reschedule for the first week on May 2022 rather than rush for what isn’t as good as could be.

By May we will have received responses to our Trenton MOVES RfEI for “Equitable … Mobility in Trenton”. We will thus have a better idea on “Who”, from the “What & How” communities, “Want & Can” Deploy “Safe, Equitable … Mobility” starting in Trenton with real expectations of scaling throughout New Jersey.

In May the 5th Summit can better achieve its fundamental purpose by allowing all of us in New Jersey to better learn from others around the world the “Whats & Hows” and have the possible “Whos” get a better appreciation of the “Equitable … Mobility” desires of Trentonians and other New Jersians.

Rescheduling the Summit to be between the RfI and the RfP steps of our Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) Deployment Process, will better enable our Community Engagement initiative to shape our ultimate deployment. We’ll thus deliver even better mobility equitably and best improve quality-of-life in Trenton and throughout New Jersey.

Please pencil into your calendar the new dates of May 5 (Thursday evening) though May 7 (Trenton Mobility Festival Saturday). 😎 Please let me know if these dates work for you.

Sorry about the delay, but many will be relieved by this change. Plus, early May is really nice in NJ.😁

This 5th Summit is inspired by the many levels of public-sector, community and neighborhood welcoming and support that now exists in New Jersey for the deployment of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility. This is now made possible by automated driving technology that is especially targeted to serve those who, for whatever reason, don’t have access to their own personal car.

The Princeton SDC Summits were initiated in 2017 to provide a venue for the open discussion of how technology, in particular automation, can be shaped to improve mobility of people and goods between and within cities. Early on, we realized that this form of mobility could easily provide yet another alternative to those who are fortunate enough to enjoy one or many high quality mobility options.

But, more importantly, it became obvious that substantial improvement in quality-of-life and equitable mobility can readily be made available to the un-served and under-served. Those who cannot drive themselves, cannot afford the transport alternatives that exist for them, or who live in areas where, for either economic or other reasons, neither public nor private desirable forms of transport are offered. Furthermore, such initial Operational Design Domains (OODs) can be readily expanded and replicated to allow the vast investments continuing to be made in this technology to actually yield their envisioned societal and financial benefits.

The recently completed 4th Summit set the groundwork for these initial deployments to benefit under-served communities. Communities with many households having access to one or fewer cars and with challenged transit alternatives. We concluded the 4th Summit by envisioning a deployment throughout Trenton, NJ, a community where 70% of the households have access to one or fewer cars.

We believe that Trenton is a perfect ODD to begin to deliver Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility, in addition to being environmentally responsible, safe and comfortable.

The opportunity to expand throughout Mercer County and replicate this deployment scenario throughout the State exists. This deployment will serve as a blueprint for the future for many other “Trentons” of this world.

The groundwork set by the 4th Summit and the NJ Autonomous Vehicle Task Force has enabled us to create a “most welcoming environment” in New Jersey for creating a Public-Private Partnership to deliver this enhanced mobility to the residents of Trenton and all New Jersians. The 5th Summit will focus directly on deploymentin Trenton and will take place in Trenton. We also envision its expansion throughout Mercer County and its replication in and around New Jersey’s other major cities.

The Technical portion of the summit will be in the morning, through lunch, of Friday, May 6 and Saturday, May 7.

Sessions will be free of charge but will require advance registration, as seating will be limited.

The Societal portion focused on engaging the customers of this form of mobility, featuring descriptions, discussions, interactions, exhibits and technology demonstrations, will be free and open to the public, with preference given to Trenton residents on Friday and residents of Mercer County and the rest of New Jersey on Saturday. Link to Sponsorship Opportunities Link to Draft Program Link to Registration

4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit It is over!!! Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.

Making Driverless Happen: The Road Forward (Updated)

K. Pyle, April 18, “It’s time to hit the start button,” is Fred Fishkin’s succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times’ Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen: Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to “the Trentons of the World.”

Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it…..” Read more Hmmmm…. We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain

Ken Pyle’s Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:

15th Session Making it Happen - Part One: Elected Officials’ Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World

14th Session What Will Power Safely-driven Cars

13th Session Improving the Moving of Goods

12th Session 3/18/21 Human-centered Design of Safe and Affordable Driverless Mobility

11th Session 3/11/21 Incentivizing Through Regulation

10th Session 3/04/21 Incentivizing Through Insurance

9th Session 2/25/21 Can Level 3 be Delivered?

8th Session 2/18/21 Who Will Build, Sell and Maintain Driverless Cars?

Michael Sena’s Slides, Glenn Mercer Slides

7th Session 2/11/21 Finally Doing It

6th Session 2/ 4/21 Safe Enough in the Operational Design Domain

5th Session 1/28/21 At the Tipping Point

4th Session 1/21/21 Why Customers are Buying Them

3rd Session 1/14/21 The SmartDrivingCars We Can Buy Today

2nd Session1/ 7/21 A Look into the Future1st Session:12/17/20Setting the Stage

Kornhauser & He, April 2021“Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the “Trentons” of this World”

Orf467F20_FinalReport “Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System” Kornhauser & He, March 2021 “AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative”

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Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020

H. Poser’77, Sept 13, 2020. “Creating Value for Light Density Urban Rail Lines”. See slides, See video Hmmmm… Simply Brilliant. Alain

Calendar of Upcoming Events

5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit

Thursday (evening), May 5, Welcome Reception (Registration required)

Friday, May 6, Equitable Mobility Innovation Forum (Registration required)

Saturday, May 7, Equitable Mobility Festival (Open to All)

Trenton, NJ

Live in Person

On the More Technical Side http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

K. Lockean’s AV Research Group at U of Texas

These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com

https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provides technical support

SmartDrivingCars Zoom-Cast Episode 2 /A. Kornhauser: Making it Happen: Trenton MOVES… a Framework for…

F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, “In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and his presentation: Making it Happen: Trenton Moves-a framework for the deployment of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high quality transportation. The focus is on providing autonomous mobility in a place where there is real need. A first. Join the effort.”

Technical support provided by: https://www.cartsmobility.com/

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 252, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 /Michael Krauss, Prof. of Law Emeritus & Alexandra Mueller, IIHS

F. Fishkin, Jan. 20, “The IIHS has announced it will rate vehicle partial automation systems. Spearheading is research scientist Alexandra Mueller who joins us. And Professor Emeritus Michael Krauss from the George Mason University School of Law on the manslaughter charges leveled in a Tesla autopilot case in California. Episode 252 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 250, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 /RiP: Olli 😭

F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, “.The end of the road for Local Motors, the robotaxi arms race in China, Tesla trouble in California, a GM-Qualcomm partnership and more in episode 250 of Smart Driving Cars. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest on autonomous mobility and transportation. Don’t forget to subscribe!”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 249, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 Will GM ever sell customers Driverless Cadillacs to consumers?

F. Fishkin, Jan. 8, “At CES, GM CEO Mary Barra said the company will be selling autonomous vehicles to the public by the middle of this decade. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin weigh in on that plus an AV report from McKinsey and Company, Volvo, Tesla and more.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 248, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Dec. 29, “With a new book in the works to explain the why behind the push for autonomous, affordable mobility…co-authors Michael Sena and Alain Kornhauser outline where we’ve been and where we are going. And then there’s the tussle over Tesla and Elon Musk. Plus Waymo and more. Tune in to episode 248 of Smart Driving Cars. Or listen.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 247, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 Self-Driving & Driverless are like Oil & Vinegar… largely Orthogonal.

F. Fishkin, Dec. 23, “In episode 247 of Smart Driving Cars: a shift at GM’s Cruise as the CEO is fired? Tesla faces editorial fire. While Waymo posts about bringing the next generation Waymo Driver to trucking. Plus more on the push for safe, equitable, affordable, high-quality mobility in New Jersey. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 246, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Jack Woll’22, Jason Sun’23, and Connor Larson’22

F. Fishkin, Dec. 16, “Affordable autonomous mobility is what the State of New Jersey is aiming to bring to Trenton and beyond. But the need is everywhere. Princeton Students Jack Woll, Jason Sun, and Connor Larson have been doing some research and join Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin to explore. Plus…Pony AI, Aurora, Tesla and more.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 244, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Michael Sena… Germany’s Automotive Industry in Transition…

F. Fishkin, Dec. 2, “Germany’s Automotive Industry in Transition… Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena shares his insights on the rapid shifts taking in place in Germany and globally and what they will mean for mobility and transportation. Join us for episode 244 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 243, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Gabe Hinton & Dick Mudge

F. Fishkin, Nov. 26, “AutoX advances with fully driverless RoboTaxis in China, Gatik and Walmart are doing full driverless deliveries in Arkansas, Tesla full self driving customers have to agree to company access to video inside and out. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more on Episode 243 of Smart Driving Cars.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 242, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Gabe Hinton & Dick Mudge

F. Fishkin, Nov. 16, “LexisNexis Risk Solutions has determined that advanced driver assistance systems are helping insurers. Should they lower premiums? Senior Scientist and researcher Gabe Hinton joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser, co-host Fred Fishkin and Dick Mudge from Compass Transportation and Technology for a look at the issues.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 241, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Danny Shapiro, nVIDIA

F. Fishkin, Nov. 11, “NVIDIA’s GTC GPU Technology Conference was filled with innovations that can change lives…and save lives. The company’s CEO declared someday everything that moves will be autonomous…either fully or mostly. NVIDIA Automotive VP Danny Shapiro joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 240, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 AEB&FSD

F. Fishkin, Nov. 6, “Tesla, full self driving and the need for a fix. Cruise goes driverless in San Francisco, Waymo Driver heads to NYC while Aurora debuts on Wall Street. That and more in episode 240 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 239, Zoom-Cast Episode 239 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Oct 28, “Will there be an uprising if a crush of electric vehicles results in overwhelmed power grids? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to dive into the issues. Plus the latest on Tesla, the Hertz and Uber deals and more.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 238, Zoom-Cast Episode 238 w/Chunk Mui, Futurist

F. Fishkin, Oct 18, “With his new book “A Brief History of a Perfect Future..Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050”, author and futurist Chunka Mui informs us how rapidly advancing technology can solve many problems including mobility and transportation. The questions? And a surprise offer from Chunka (keep watching) …in Episode 238 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or you can listen to episode 238 of Smart Driving Cars.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 237, Zoom-Cast Episode 237 Aurora aTaxi & aTrucking

F. Fishkin, Oct 18, “Aurora is planning subscription services for autonomous trucking & ride hailing. Passenger buttons to stop and start are part of Motional’s planned self driving taxi experience. And Tesla’s Texas insurance rates to be based on real time driving behavior. Plus more in Episode 237 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 236, Zoom-Cast Episode 236 w/Russ Mitchell, LA Times Staff Writer

F. Fishkin, Sept. 30, “The Tesla automatic braking mystery. Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to explore the questions surrounding automatic emergency braking in Teslas and other cars. The systems have to work before there can be autonomous mobility. Plus GM unveils Ultra Cruise, the 5th annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit moves to May and actor William Shatner prepares for liftoff.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 235, Zoom-Cast Episode 235 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Sept. 30, “So what is a car company? Appearances can be deceiving. Join The Dispatcher publisher & consultant Michael Sena on Episode 235 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus much more on the upcoming summit and mobility for all…”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 234, Zoom-Cast Episode 234 1st Preview of 5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit

F. Fishkin, Sept. 26, “Tesla reportedly has built 300 thousand cars in Shanghai so far this year despite the chip shortage. FedEx & Aurora partner for autonomous trucking in Texas. And dramatic developments in advance of the upcoming 5th annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Tune in to Smart Driving Cars… and subscribe..”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 233, Zoom-Cast Episode 233 w Prof. Adriano Alessandrini at the U. of Florence

F. Fishkin, Sept. 18 “What will it take to deliver autonomous mobility for all? For one thing, improved road systems, says Professor Adriano Alessandrini at the University of Florence. The author of The Role of Infrastructure for a Safe Transition to Automated Driving joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a spirited discussion on that, plus Waymo and new details on bringing new mobility to New Jersey and the upcoming Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 232, Zoom-Cast Episode 232 w Steven Shladover

F. Fishkin, Sept. 4 “Cameras alone aren’t enough to get Tesla or anyone else to driverless mobility. So says UC Berkeley’s Steven Shladover, a leading autonomous vehicle research engineer. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the need for more regulation from Washington, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota, Motional and more. Watch or listen to Smart Driving Cars Episode 232 and subscribe!”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 231, Zoom-Cast Episode 231 w Michael Sena, Creator of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Aug 27, “What’s wrong with the concept of building electric vehicles on a skateboard type platform? Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus Tesla, Waymo and more. And the next Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is on the way. Watch or listen…and subscribe! Or listen.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 230, Zoom-Cast Episode 230 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century

F. Fishkin, Aug 21, “Teslas, Humanoids and Elevators! What Elon Musk and Tesla delivered at AI Day 2021 was insight into the company’s remarkable technology and that may boost recruiting efforts. So says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser who is joined by co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal, author of POWER PLAY… Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. AI Day, the NHTSA investigation and Elon Musk hops on the elevator on Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars! Or you can listen to Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars on Tesla’s AI Day and more with guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal..author of POWER PLAY… Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century.

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 229, Zoom-Cast Episode 229 w/Russ Mitchell, Los Angeles Times

F. Fishkin, Aug 18, “With the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration having opened an investigation into Tesla autopilot crashes involving emergency vehicles…Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the issues facing Tesla and other vehicle makers.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 228, Zoom-Cast Episode 228 Planes, Trains & Automobiles

F. Fishkin, Aug 13, “Planes, trains and automobiles. From battery powered electric light rail to the confusion over the difference between driver assistance and self driving to Amazon’s new 1.5 billion dollar U.S. air cargo hub…the focus is on the latest in mobility. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 228 of Smart Driving Cars.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century

F. Fishkin, July 22, “The Wall Street Journal’s Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it’s a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play.

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 225, Zoom-Cast Episode 225 w/Kevin Biesty, Deputy Director for Policy @ Arizona DoT

F. Fishkin, July 22, “Chandler, Arizona is the one place where paying customers can take advantage of driverless robo-taxis (from Waymo) to get where they are going. How did that happen? What does the future hold? Kevin Biesty, Arizona’s Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Transportation, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for an in depth discussion. Plus.. Ford, Argo, Lyft, Tesla, Mercedes & more.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 224, Zoom-Cast Episode 224 w/Selika Josiah Talbot, Principal, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting

F. Fishkin, July 19, “Does there need to be a White House appointed autonomous and electric vehicle czar to open up new mobility possibilities for all? That’s the view of Selika Josiah Talbott..a government veteran who now heads Autonomous Vehicle Consulting and lectures at American University. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a deeper look at how the technology can be deployed to improve lives.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 223, Zoom-Cast Episode 223 w/Richard Mudge, Compass Transp. & Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation

F. Fishkin, July 15, “Can Tesla (and others) make automatic emergency braking work? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser continues his push and is joined by the Reason Foundation’s Baruch Feigenbaum and Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge along with co-host Fred Fishkin to explore this week’s Transportation Research Board sessions.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222

F. Fishkin, July 11, “Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes shouldn’t it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox

F. Fishkin, July 1, “With Zoox the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company’s vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.”

SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times

F. Fishkin, July 1, “Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That’s a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill…who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that…plus Tesla…autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.

Link to previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Recent Highlights of:

January 21, 2022

A Tesla on autopilot killed two people in Gardena. Is the driver guilty of manslaughter?

H. Smith & R. Mitchell, Jan 19. “On Dec. 29, 2019, a Honda Civic pulled up to the intersection of Artesia Boulevard and Vermont Avenue in Gardena. It was just after midnight. The traffic light was green.

As the car proceeded through the intersection, a 2016 Tesla Model S on Autopilot exited a freeway, ran through a red light and crashed into the Civic. The Civic’s driver, Gilberto Alcazar Lopez, and his passenger, Maria Guadalupe Nieves-Lopez, were killed instantly.

Nearly two years later, prosecutors in Los Angeles County filed two counts of vehicular manslaughter against the driver of the Tesla, 27-year-old Kevin George Aziz Riad. Experts believe it is the first felony prosecution in the United States of a driver accused of causing a fatality while using a partially automated driver-assist system.

As such, the case represents a milestone in the increasingly confusing world of automated driving.

“It’s a wake-up call for drivers,” said Alain Kornhauser,… “Read more Hmmmm… My comments are quoted in the article. Alain January 15, 2022

Local Motors, the startup behind the Olli autonomous shuttle, has shut down

R. Bellan, Jan. 13, “Local Motors, the company that crowdsourced and built the Olli autonomous shuttle as well as the Rally Fighter, will be shutting down operations by Friday, according to several posts from various employees on LinkedIn. The company has yet to release an official statement, but many employees are already openly looking for new work….

The shutdown comes only a few months after Vikrant Aggarwal, formerly president and chief operating officer, took over as CEO, as the company shared plans to scale production globally. Former CEO Jay Rogers transitioned to an advisory role on the company’s board.”… Read more Hmmmm… So sad. What a shame. While it is exceedingly difficult to build a driver technology stack that actually works, it is proving non-trivial to build vehicles, as Glenn & Michael reminded us during the 4th SDC Summit. Alain January 08, 2022

The road to affordable autonomous mobility K. Heineke, Jan 2022, “Robo-taxis promise affordable mobility. But with widely varying service costs across use cases and geography, providers must address operational and service issues to realize that promise…. “ Read more Hmmmm… You are welcome to read more; however, this report contains little more than well-known facts of life as is reflected by the report’s first sentence.

Every mode of transport from moving sidewalks to supersonic transports have …“widely varying service costs across use cases and geography”… McKinsey, please tell us something new.

What is more disconcerting is the “cost” in that phrase is the “cost” of delivering the service, yet their first Exhibit presents “End customer cost”, usually termed “Price of service”, of the various alternatives in the use cases and geographies that they’ve evolved to serve.

“Public Transit” enjoys substantial public subsidies and offer very limited mobility services in just a few geographies in order to be priced as is indicated. In order for it to offer mobility comparable to that offered by ride-sharing, taxi or the personal automobile, its costs to deliver that service would be astronomical in all but a very few geographies. That’s why it ends up serving roughly 2% of daily person trips in the US with most of its ridership being those who can’t afford the price of any of the alternatives.

Modes such as Ride sharing also enjoy subsidies provided by investors and gig workers willing to work for less than a living wage to deliver a service at a price that is also substantially lower than the cost to deliver that service should it be delivered by a financially stable entity that paid its drivers a living wage.

Consequently, the modes listed each have their own sweet spot of “use cases and geography” yet this report is silent as to how these modes and autonomous Taxis would compare in each of the various geography-use case pair. Private cars don’t cost well in trying to serve the major mobility needs of folks that live in Manhattan, yet Public transit does and vice versa in Princeton. Outside of Manhattan and a very few other places in the US, public transit serves only those that can’t drive a car and serves them very poorly, if at all. For most geographies and use cases the private car is king.

What is most astonishing is that this report doesn’t seem to recognize that the only real economic reason for autonomous Taxis is its potential to forgo the cost of a human driver while having the opportunity to deliver a level of service that is almost equivalent to a personal car, and essentially, if not better, than taxi, and ride-hailing. Also important is that in its infancy, it has minimal infrastructure needs. The infrastructure that makes conventional cars safer and better such as good paint and smooth surfaces are all it needs. Thus it can simply use the existing infrastructure. That was the obvious revelation of the DARPA Challenges. Prior to 2005, Automated Highway Systems, not only need automated cars but also a dedicated roadway on which to operate. Systems such as the Morgantown PRT system that has such a dedicated roadway has operated safely and effectively for almost 50 years. Unfortunately, its “geography” never got bigger, never scaled. Why?… because of its infrastructure cost.

A fundamental beauty of autonomous Taxis is that their infrastructure costs are essentially zero. I’d argue that a major reason why Tesla and EVs have been able to get to where they are is because they also haven’t been burdened by infrastructure cost in their formative years. They use the same roads as ICEs and they don’t even pay a gas tax to help maintain those roads. Moreover, Elon was ingenious enough to pick up the tab for the infrastructure cost associated with rapidly charging Teslas. Brilliant! and one major reason why Tesla continues to knock it out of the park (see below). Yet this McKinsey report is silent about any of these fundamentals.

So in the end, McKinsey, for all of its supposedly high-quality insights, contributes little more than click-bait and what everyone already knows with this report. Very disappointing. Alain December 30, 2021

TuSimple completes its first driverless autonomous truck run on public roads What the investment community and potential customers see… R. Bellan, Dec. 29, “Autonomous trucking startup TuSimple has completed its first autonomous truck run on open public roads without a human in the vehicle, according to the company…”

After reality has passed through the smoke & mirrors, one realizes…: “…As a safety precaution, unmarked police vehicles followed at about a mile behind the truck in the event the truck came to an emergency stop. In addition, TuSimple implemented a survey vehicle to look for anomalies operating five miles ahead, as well as an oversight vehicle a half-mile behind that could put the autonomous truck in a minimal risk condition. …” Read more Hmmmm… What TuSimple has demonstrated is totally unaffordable, unprofitable, unscalable, irresponsible,… What do they think that are they selling???

This demonstration replaced a human attendant/driver for unmarked police vehicles (plural) each with a police person who likely earns, thus costs, substantially more than a professional attendant/driver. The plural implies the cost is more than 2x to cover the police. But there is more… a (supposedly human driven) survey vehicle and an oversight vehicle was also involved in the entourage. The labor charge alone for this demo is more than 4x that of a professionally driven goods-movement service. Plus the accrued cost of all the automated gizmos on the truck, plus the environmental costs of having 4 additional vehicles accompanying this load. Wow!

TuSimple must not have been demonstrating what they are trying to sell.

The purpose of the demonstration couldn’t have been to demonstrate the RoI of TuSimple’s technology to a potential Trucking company customer. It’s not easy to make money as a trucking company. It’s all about service and the cost to deliver that level of service. If I’m ALK Trucking, I know very well what level of service I can deliver and what the driver is going to cost me to deliver that level of service. I have three options available to me. I can use automated technology to help the driver drive, or remove the driver, or walk away from automated technology and stick to what I know works well. There are substantial advantages in quality of life, driver retention and insurance savings associated with Automated Driver Assistance capabilities are available now, but that’s not what TuSimple is selling. TuSimple is selling the ability to remove a driver. To ALK Trucking, the fundamental value of what TuSimple is selling is elimination of the driver’s cost in the delivery of a comparable level of service. While this demonstration did eliminate the driver’s cost and delivered a comparable level of service, it also incurred a greater than 4x the driver’s cost in ancillary services to deliver that comparable service. Consequently, the demonstration completely backfired. ALK Trucking will necessarily say… please come back when you can demonstrate this without the ancillary costs, and please stop wasting my time. I have a business to run and customers to serve.

If the purpose of the demonstration was to convince the “SoftBanks” of this world that their investment is being well invested, I can’t imagine that went any better. You mean you could have done the demonstration using less than 25% of the labor cost if only you would have used an on-board attendant and you announced that “the whole 100% of the trip was done without a single disengagement”. And, by the way, this was the Nth time, in the “… 1,800 runs to the tune of 150,000 miles on this stretch of highway …” that you’ve done the run without any disengagements, where N is large. And, N is so large, that TuSimple is now willing to accept all liability associated with any malfunction of its automated driver that is incurred in the normal delivery of transport services in this corridor. That now means that TuSimple is indeed selling an automated driver that doesn’t need an attendant as a backup. Then ALK Trucking company, given what TuSimple wants to charge for this automated driver, can readily do the arithmetic to make a buy or walk decision. And, the “SoftBank investor”, I can readily assess TuSimple’s pricing model, and determine which trucking companies are likely to buy or walk, thus enabling the investors to buy or sell.

Unfortunately, this demonstration clearly tells ALK Trucking to walk and “SoftBank” to sell.

Finally, by removing the attendant from inside the cab, TuSimple unnecessarily put the public at increased risk, and thus, acted irresponsibly. There should be NO testing on public roads without a professional attendant/driver behind the wheel ready and able to safely disengage the automated driver! This is true for those testing the movement of people and similarly for those testing the moving of goods. Only when there is societal/economic net-benefit associated with the driverless/attendantless operation should it take place on public roadways.

Public roadways are not the place for smoke & mirror stunts or carnival acts. Alain January 2022 Issue: Taking action when governments cannot or are not

M. Sena, Dec. 28, “In some places in the world, accessibility from anywhere to anywhere is taken for granted. Public transit opportunities are ubiquitous, and if public transit is not sufficient, a ride in a car or a van is subsidized or totally paid for. That is not the case in the U.S. and in many other countries or regions in countries where a car is the necessary ticket to taking advantage of those opportunities that are on offer. In the first article in this month’s issue, I attempt to provide the background on why that has happened. Hint: It is not because the car was invented.

I was inspired to write the second article by the protesters at the COP26 gathering in Glasgow this past November. Maybe at one time in our lives we sat in the back seat and complained “Aren’t we there yet?”, but then we got to be the drivers and appreciated that you don’t get there by magic. The COP26 protesters want a utopia and they want it now. Utopian and democratic concepts don’t mix well.

Musings is a reflection on the failure of governments to enforce the laws they have made during the past century to ensure that people inside and outside of motorized transport vehicles can coexist. The kids of the kids who thought it was perfectly acceptable to disobey laws we thought were unfair are now in charge of making sure those laws are enforced—and they are not doing their jobs. The result is chaos on the roads.

Below you can find the summary of each of the articles. You can read the entire issue in the PDF attached or online by clicking here.

Enjoy your January issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. I wish you all the best for the New Year.” Read more Hmmmm… Another excellent Dispatcher and I am humbled by Michael’s contributions to “Making Trenton Happen”. Please also listen or watch this week’s PodCast/ZoomCast featuring Michael and this edition of the Dispatcher. Alain December 24, 2021

GM Fires Cruise CEO Over The Robotaxi Vs Personal Car Battle Writ Large B. Templeton, Dec. 20, “One of the key debates over the future of self-driving cars is how much of it will be robotaxis — Uber UBER +2.5%-style services which sell rides rather than cars, and how much will be sales of personal self-driving cars to private owners. This week this battle was prominent in the firing of Cruise CEO Dan Ammann by Mary Barra, CEO of GM over conflicts on this question. Amman saw a “robotaxi first” strategy with an IPO to capitalize on strong market interest in that business. Barra wanted Cruise to put more focus on technologies that could be used in GM’s traditional product lines.” Read more Hmmmm… I guess that Brad has the inside information on Dan’s firing. Nobody ever tells me anything that isn’t public, so I can’t really comment; however…

My perspective has been since near “the beginning” that automated driving technologies have two largely orthogonal (very different) markets:

• as Comfort & Convenience features for consumer-owned “conventional” automobiles. A long time ago I chose to call cars with these features “Self-driving Cars”, and

• Cost-reducing and Quality-of-Service improving features to fleet operators focused on providing mobility (as a service) to people (some call this “transit”) and/or things (for example package delivery). I’ve called these Driverless cars or a Taxis (autonomous Taxis or automated Taxis, your call.)

These are fundamentally different markets.

It can be envisioned that the Self-driving variety is a natural market for traditional OEMs, I’ve flippantly called this technology today’s Chrome & Fins that will propel customers into showrooms (or online to buy, buy, buy). I’ll argue that these Comfort & Convenience features, named “autoPilot” and “FSD”, may well have been one of, if not the, fundamental brilliance(s) that fueled Elon’s success with Tesla.

Even with all the regulatory challenges that these Comfort & Convenience features have piled on Elon, he hasn’t backed off his use of these “Chrome & Fins” which are largely Bling Substance.

GM is even aggressively promoting its SuperCruise “Chrome & Fins” and Daimler is touting its “Level 3 drivePilot” “Chrome & Fins”.

Consequently, it would not be surprising for a leader founded on traditional OEM business models to aggressively pursue the development of Chrome & Fins, especially when, once sold to the customer, the future liability exposure to the OEM for any mis-use or tarnishing of the Chrome & Fins is expected to be minimal.

Unfortunately, the technology associated with Driverless is enormously different because it is Not for show, it has to be for go from the very beginning. It only delivers its promised value… more affordable, higher-quality mobility… if it actually works. And works, not just in the showroom, but during its entire lifespan. And, if it doesn’t then the producer of the technology as well as the operator of the technology, will bear some, if not most/all of the liability risk.

Thus, Driverless is a substantially different challenge than Self-driving and it is not at all surprising that an individual focused on doing driverless, would have little patience with an individual focused on doing Self-driving.

Self-driving doesn’t really have to work so you can be sloppy and still “make a buck”.

Sloppy with Driverless and you’re out of business… ask Uber .. $120B v $60B “sells” to Aurora

Moreover, I’ve written for a very long time that there is no feasible market (neither profitable or non-profitable) for the sale of driverless cars to individual consumers. First, who would buy a car that one can’t drive, but more importantly, no OEM is going to backstop the liability associated with a car traveling all by itself without a responsible person in the car. Regulators will never allow it, OEMs will never embrace the responsibility (Elon hasn’t even come close, read the fine print). End of story.

Finally, as many others have written, it is not at all obvious that Driverless evolves from Self-driving. Since self-driving fundamentally includes having the driver in the loop as the responsible entity, Self-driving is able, from the get-go, to be “sloppy” in its functionality.

Driverless can’t afford to be “sloppy” or cut corners from the very beginning. That mindset must endure throughout. Lack of that mindset may have gotten Uber in trouble in the first place and may be ingrained in Pony.ai, EasyMile and others.

It simply may not be all that easy or appropriate to try to clean up technology that has relied on a human driver as a backup to build one that from the beginning must recognize that crutch is not available nowhere, no how. Alain

December 17, 2021
Pony.ai’s permit to test driverless vehicles in California is suspended after crash
A. Hawkins, Dec. 14, “Pony.ai, an autonomous vehicle startup based in Silicon Valley and Guangzhou, China, is temporarily unable to test driverless vehicles in California after a vehicle crash led the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles to suspend the company’s testing permit.

Pony.ai was one of the few companies approved to test fully autonomous vehicles without safety drivers behind the steering wheel on public roads in California….

The permit was suspended after the company reported a crash to the DMV…. “ Read more Hmmmm… Crash… not good!

Crash report “Driver’s Name” is blank Hummmm … ???

Crash report makes no mention of occupants or attendants. Hummmm … Rest assured that “NJCrash reports of AVs” will include names of occupants, drivers and/or attendants. (One of the benefits of being “tied for last with Mississippi” for so long).

Also, rest assured, that NJ will NOT permit the testing of AVs without an alert driver/attendant capable of “disengaging” the AV in an attempt to avert or mitigate a crash.

Finally.. what was Pony.ai thinking???? The objective/purpose of testing is to encounter situations where the car will crash if the driver/attendant fails to “disengage”. Encountering such situations might allow the AV system to be improved/fixed/corrected so when that situation is encountered in the future, the AV system will not crash and not need anyone to disengage it. Then you can get rid of the driver/attendant.

Testing is not over until the probability that a situation requiring disengagement by a driver/attendant is sufficiently rare such that the liability associated with such rare occurrences is substantially smaller that the value captured by the increased mobility afforded by not having to pay the cost of an attendant/driver… period!!!!!

Certainly not an advanced concept. Every parent & child knows that you continue to run behind the bike and you don’t take off the training wheels until the child is good enough at riding the bike such that the chances of falling and scraping a knee or worse is so remote that you let them enjoy the fruits derived from the newly acquired mobility. No different for driverless vehicles or whatever you wish to call them.

So what was Pony.ai thinking, if indeed, they were testing without an attendant or driver???? What value were they acquiring…

• Saving an infinitesimal percentage of their cost of testing? Are they that strapped for $$$?
• Public relations creds? What was the net on that Silicon Valley gambit?
• Demonstration of their manliness? Very last century!, or
• Just total irresponsibility and stupidity. C’mon Man!!!

Also, what was CA DMV thinking when they created a license to test without a driver or attendant? Some of us believe that the #1 value of being able to operate a vehicle without a driver/attendant is the substantial percentage reduction in the cost to deliver high-quality mobility to everyone, especially those who, for whatever reason, can’t afford to provide mobility for themselves (can’t… drive a car, ride a bike, ride a scooter, walk). That cost reduction provides society with the opportunity to deliver high-quality affordable, and thus equitable, mobility to everyone. But that is deployment/operations, NOT testing.

It is fundamentally OK/necessary that a license to deploy/deliver mobility to people and/or goods, without a driver/attendant be available. That is the goal. To test without a driver/attendant is irresponsible and stupid. Alain

December 11, 2021
Orf 467F21 Symposium: Evolutionary Deployment of a State-wide aTaxis system starting from MyVillage
J. Woll’22, A. Lau’23, M. Wasserman’22, C. Larson’22, J. Sun’23, Dec. 10, “Slides of: Making It Happen”: Hawaii - California - Washington - Florida - Connecticut” Read more Hmmmm…Video of Presentation, Slides, Report Format. I couldn’t be more proud. 😁 Alain

December 6, 2021
Murphy Administration Announces RFEI for Project to Create the First Autonomous Vehicle-Based Urban Transit System in America

Press release, Dec. 6, “Governor Phil Murphy and New Jersey Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti today announced an Request for Expressions of Interest (RFEI) for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project. Trenton MOVES will act to provide safe, equitable, affordable, and sustainable high-quality mobility through the deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) throughout the state capital. This on-demand automated transit system will serve 90,000 residents of Trenton.

“Since taking office, we have worked relentlessly towards making New Jersey the innovation center of America,” said Governor Murphy. “There is perhaps no initiative that embodies this goal more than the Trenton MOVES project, which will attract tech talent from around the country and the world with the mission of creating an autonomous vehicle-based transit system in our Capitol that will provide a new, affordable transportation solution for underserved areas of Trenton. This is an exciting project with immense potential, and I look forward to the day that the first vehicle hits the road.”

“Mobility is about equity and access to opportunity,” said New Jersey Department of Transportation Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti. “Trenton MOVES represents an opportunity to utilize innovation to sustainably improve the quality of life of the mobility-constrained in many of our cities. By starting in Trenton, we will have the opportunity to work with a close and effective partner; ultimately our vision is that this effort will ideally scale throughout the state and the region.”

“We’re grateful to Governor Murphy and the N.J. Department of Transportation under Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti for investing in an innovative mobility solution that will considerably improve the lives of the average Trentonian,” said Trenton Mayor W. Reed Gusciora. “Trenton MOVES means our residents can get to work on time without transfers or connections. It means state workers can explore restaurants and businesses throughout the entire city. It means more safe and equitable transportation options for everyone ranging from students involved in school activities to seniors going to their doctor appointments.”

The Trenton MOVES (Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System) project is being developed by the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.

This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. During the initial launch there will be in-vehicle attendants to demonstrate the safety and operational integrity of the service. Full deployment will occur after a detailed planning and testing phase. This new system will allow Trenton’s households (70% of which have limited access to a single automobile or no access at all) as well as traditional road users to get acclimated to the presence of AVs on the streets of the state capital.

NJDOT offers this Request for Expressions of Interest (RFEI) to help gather information from firms in the design, build-out and operation of a safe and equitable automated vehicle transportation system for Trenton. The deadline for the RFEI response is February 11, 2022. Following the solicitation of the RFEI, NJDOT may issue formal requests for Qualifications or Proposals. However, responses to the RFEI will not necessarily impact or be connected to any call for Proposals or Qualifications.

The deadline for the RFEI response is February 11, 2022.

Copy of Request for Expression of Interest” Read more This is all about deployment that will begin to enable New Jersey and the nation to finally begin to capture societal benefits from the vast investments that have been made in this technology since the DARPA Challenges. I’m so humbled to be a part of this most substantive initiative. Alain

December 4, 2021

December 2021

Issue: Germany’s Automotive Industry in Transition

M. Sena, Dec. 1, “Germany’s automotive industry is important for the country’s economy, the welfare of a large number of its citizens and for the prestige of the nation. It is also very important for Europe as a whole. VW, DAIMLER and BMW had total 2020 revenue of €476 billion and hold respectively positions 2, 3 and 8 amongst the largest companies in the EU…

Hydroelectric power has not disappeared, but it isn’t directly driving machines; it’s driving turbines to generate electricity. If you are among those who classify hydroelectric power as a renewable energy source (a club in which I am not a member), then it is interesting to note that hydropower accounts for 70% of global electricity production from renewable sources. But it definitely is not top of the list of investments recommended for high returns. Solar and wind are the darlings of investors. But imagine what would have happened if electricity had not been invented and we got stuck on steam. Hydropower would have disappeared completely. Now imagine if the internal combustion engine didn’t make it out of the lab and electric- and steam-driven engines continued to compete for investments. What happens to TESLA’s stock, which is now trading at just over a $1,000/share (it was up to $1,239 on the 4th of November!) if the U.S. decides that it will stop financing its rival’s military buildup by banning the sale of all battery electric cars using lithium-ion batteries or any other material on which its rival holds a monopoly. Or, what happens if the country that currently has the monopoly decides not to sell batteries or allow the sale of any of the raw materials that are used to make batteries?

Steam trains got the chance to pull coal cars when the price of oats that fed the horses became prohibitively high due to the wars in which Britain was engaged. Anybody who owned stock in a steam engine company did very well at that point. But if that company tried to buck the ICE trend and continue to build steam trucks, like SENTINEL and FODEN, the paper was eventually worthless…” Read more Hmmmm… Once again, excellent fundamentals here. Read, learn and enjoy! Also check out our SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 244, Zoom-Cast Episode 2 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher, Alain

November 26, 2021
Gatik and Walmart Achieve Fully Driverless Deliveries in a First for Autonomous Trucking Industry Worldwide
Press release, Nov. 8, “Gatik and Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced today that Gatik is operating daily without a safety driver behind the wheel on its delivery route for Walmart in Bentonville, Arkansas, moving customer orders between a Walmart dark store and a Neighborhood Market in its fleet of multi-temperature autonomous box trucks.

Gatik’s deployment with Walmart in the state represents the first time that an autonomous trucking company has removed the safety driver from a commercial delivery route on the middle mile anywhere in the world.

Gatik’s fully driverless operations, which began in August 2021, involve consistent, repeated delivery runs multiple times per day, seven days per week on public roads and unlock the full advantages of autonomous delivery for Walmart’s customers: increased speed and responsiveness when fulfilling e-commerce orders, increased asset utilization and enhanced safety for all road users…”

This milestone signifies a revolutionary breakthrough for the autonomous trucking industry,” said Gautam Narang, CEO and co-founder, Gatik. “Our deployment in Bentonville is not a one-time demonstration. These are frequent, revenue-generating, daily runs that our trucks are completing safely in a range of conditions on public roads, demonstrating the commercial and technical advantages of fully driverless operations on the middle mile. We’re thrilled to enable Walmart’s customers to reap the benefits.”

In December 2020, Gatik and Walmart received the Arkansas State Highway Commission’s first ever approval to remove the safety driver from Gatik’s autonomous trucks, following the completion of 18 months’ successful operations. As part of its roadmap to operating fully driverless, Gatik undertook a comprehensive stakeholder engagement strategy, involving state and local leadership and emergency services, and will continue to hold ongoing informational workshops concerning its ground-breaking autonomous operations.

In December 2020, Gatik and Walmart received the Arkansas State Highway Commission’s first ever approval to remove the safety driver from Gatik’s autonomous trucks, following the completion of 18 months’ successful operations. As part of its roadmap to operating fully driverless, Gatik undertook a comprehensive stakeholder engagement strategy, involving state and local leadership and emergency services, and will continue to hold ongoing informational workshops concerning its ground-breaking autonomous operations…” Read more Hmmmm… If you are trying to do it for real, this is the way to do it. I appreciate the showing some humility as opposed to making Houdini-style Snake & Mirrors announcements focused on getting more from the “SoftBanks” of this world. Congratulations! This looks like a real “dida milestone”! Update 12/4… It is driverless but there is an attendant on-board for now. Progress but not PrimeTime. 🙁 Alain

November 20, 2021
The impact of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) on insurance claims (True Impact of ADAS Features on Insurance Claim Severity Revealed)

J. Kanet, Nov 9, “Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have improved automobile safety by minimizing the factor most frequently associated with car accidents – human error. The conventional wisdom has been that ADAS technologies should mitigate the number of insurance claims, but the impact of ADAS on claim severity has been less clear. ADAS features include expensive and complex technical components and are often installed on exposed areas of vehicles, making them susceptible to damage from a collision.

This white paper examines the multivariate effect of ADAS features on claim severity. It is a follow up to our earlier report, ADAS Analysis Creates Path for Auto Insurance Rating, which analyzed the impact of ADAS systems on claim frequency. For both analyses, LexisNexis Risk Solutions considered the same sample of 11 million vehicles from model years 2014-2019, and reviewed industry-wide claims loss data for bodily injury, property damage and collision coverages. For this follow-up report, we looked at the interactions between a core list of ADAS features and quantified the claim severity differential across all 648 possible combinations of those features. … “ Read more Hmmmm… Excellent. Finally there is data that supports that ADAS is indeed fundamentally good for the insurance industry in that it allows them to make more money. Not to be crass, but “crash mitigation” (airbag, energy absorbing car design, …) has been great for safety… saving lives, reducing occupant severity, … but, the liabilities associated with crash mitigation have increased. Claim Severity for both Physical Damage and Bodily Injury have gone up. Cars are more expensive to repair and it costs more if you live than if you die. 🙁.

For years I’ve been arguing that ADAS focused squarely on Crash Prevention {automated collision avoidance (that actually works well… does kick automatically to avoid collision 😎), not just “warning” (that is annoying. Because since it is just a warning there is no pressure to make it work well… just cover your butt! So, no pressure to make it work well. Consequently, “everyone” turns it off to avoid being annoyed… 🙁} is Automation’s best opportunity to deliver real safety… Save lives, …, and make $$$ for the Insurance industry!

For years, I’ve postulated that as soon as {“the expected liability savings for ADAS (the difference in the expected liability for me with&without…)” < (less than) “incremental cost of ADAS on the price of a car that I am about to buy (difference with&without)”}, my insurance agent (the Gecko, Flo, NJM, or ???) should insist on picking up the tab on the price difference as long as I continue to pay my existing premiums! Nothing but a win-win! I win because the probability that I die… is lower and the Gecko, Flo, NJM, or ??? smile all the way to the bank😎. These are real market forces.

This is the first report that I’ve seen that begins to quantify the reduction in “expected liability” of ADAS based on real experiential data. To me, this is major!

Be sure to see the white paper True Impact of ADAS Features on Insurance Claim Severity Revealed and listen/watch the SDC Pod/ZoomCast 242. Alain

November 12, 2021

First across the Forth – and a royal visit
H. Posner, Nov 10, “UK-based rolling stock & battery technology manufacturer Vivarail noted a number of achievements during the first week of the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow. The opening Saturday of the conference on Saturday October 30 saw a historic run across the Firth of Forth, as the first electric train across the iconic bridge.

Vivarail was asked to operate its battery train for demonstration runs through the conference as part of the official Network Rail Green Trains@COP26 event. Each day the train has taken delegates and invited guests from around the world to showcase the best of new emission-free technology. In the first week the train carried hundreds of people from government, industry, academia, media and advocacy groups. … “
Read more Hmmmm… But you know that the Pop-Up Metro train was the First Across the Atlantic.
Video, Slides and ZoomCast re: Pop-Up Metro. And there is always Alain climbing on #6988.😎. Absolutely Fantastic Henry. Alain

November 4, 2021

Tesla’s handling of braking bug in public self-driving test raises alarms
R. Mitchell, Nov. 3, “Tesla pushed out a new version of the experimental software suite it calls Full Self-Driving to approved drivers Oct. 23 through an “over the air” update.

The next morning, Tesla learned the update had altered cars’ behavior in a way the company’s engineers hadn’t intended.

In a recall report to federal safety regulators Friday, Tesla put the problems like this: The company discovered a software glitch that “can produce negative object velocity detections when other vehicles are present.”

In everyday English, Tesla’s automatic braking system was engaging for no apparent reason, causing cars to rapidly decelerate as they traveled down the highway, putting them at risk of being rear-ended. Forward collision warning chimes were ringing too, even though there was no impending collision to warn about…

Tesla’s response to the glitch raises its own concerns. While its engineers worked to fix the software, they turned off automatic braking and forward collision warning for the software testers over the weekend, the company said. …”
Read more Hmmmm… At least the AEB was on this time around. I still contend that previous versions FSD (and autoPilot) had AEB turned off because of AEB’s propensity for false-positives. Tesla’s problems/challenges is today NOT with FSD. It is with AEB. It must solve the AEB’s false-positive problem BEFORE it goes back trying to improve FSD. A satisfactory AEB is a necessary precursor to any FSD. To date, Tesla has put the cart before the horse. It’s not pretty!

Emergency braking happens because weird things happen while driving. Disrespecting the system that is supposed to save you when weird things happen is very short-sighted. Explicitly turning it off is totally irresponsible and potentially criminal. Alain

October 29, 2021

Tesla pulled its latest ‘Full Self Driving’ beta after testers complained about false crash warnings and other bugs

R. Lawler, Oct 24, “Tesla’s decision to test its “Full Self Driving” advanced driver assistance software with untrained vehicle owners on public roads has attracted scrutiny and criticism, and that was before this latest release.

Version 10.3 began rolling out on Saturday night / Sunday morning with a long list of release notes. The list mentions changes starting with introducing driver profiles that can swap between different characteristics for following distance, rolling stops, or exiting passing lanes. It’s supposed to better detect brake lights, turn signals, and hazard lights from other vehicles, along with reduced false slowdowns and improved offsetting for pedestrians.

However, on Sunday afternoon Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla is “Seeing some issues with 10.3, so rolling back to 10.2 temporarily.”
Read more Hmmmm… The problems stem from version 10.3 loading with Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) enabled. Most everything is OK if AEB is disabled. Which, of course, is the fundamental problem with AutoPilot and FSD…

Tesla got ahead of itself figuring that autoPilot and then FSD were so much better. That made their “buggy” and thus annoying AEB superfluous. Rather than fix a lowly “Level 1” system, they simply may have turned it off.

They may finally realize that the AEB functionality is really needed and it needs to be almost perfect. Exceedingly few false positives or false negatives. Wow… Not so simple. They have a lot of hard work to do to fix what they had previously shoved under the rug. Alain

October 24, 2021

Amazon’s self-driving cars are coming to downtown Seattle. Safety advocates are not pleased
K. Long, Oct 19, “… But an announcement Monday from Amazon’s self-driving car unit Zoox that it will soon start testing its autonomous vehicles in downtown Seattle drew criticism from transportation-safety advocates. The early promise of the technology, they said, has been overshadowed by a string of crashes and near-misses, due in part to lax oversight of the rapidly growing sector…”
Read more Hmmmm… First news out of the box from the hometown paper is this?? So discouraging. You just can’t win. 😭 Alain

October 10, 2021

A Tesla mystery: Why didn’t auto-braking stop these crashes?
In Spanish
R. Mitchel, Oct 7, “Compared with so-called advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot, a forward collision avoidance system is relatively crude. It is designed to answer one question — is a frontal impact imminent? — and respond to danger by sounding a warning and, if necessary, triggering a subsystem called automatic emergency braking. Unlike Autopilot, which must be selected manually and is available only under some driving conditions, automatic emergency braking runs by default unless manually turned off….

Tesla calls its vehicles “the safest cars in the world,” citing their combination of structural engineering and advanced technology. But when it comes to the forward collision avoidance system, Tesla owners have been reporting problems at a substantially elevated rate compared with similarly equipped cars….

“Teslas are running into stationary objects,” said Alain Kornhauser, who heads the driverless car engineering program at Princeton University. “They shouldn’t be.” If the company’s cars can’t avoid crash scenes marked by flares or traffic cones, he said, “how can you trust anything else they do with Autopilot?”…

One possibility, according to Missy Cummings, a former Navy fighter pilot who studies human-machine interaction at Duke University, is that Autopilot is designed to preempt or suppress emergency braking to minimize what’s known as phantom braking.

“I haven’t seen the code to say how Tesla works, but I suspect the AEB is turned off in some situations,” she said. “If it were left on it may detect what are called phantom objects and would be slamming on the brakes.”… “
Read more Hmmmm… This story is great and is not what anyone else has written. Thank you, Russ, for doing all of the research and hard work that you put into this article.

I agree with Missy, (I haven’t seen the code either), but, rest assured, a perception algorithm is part of each of Tesla’s automated systems that “drive” their cars some of the time, be it its forward collision avoidance system (FCAS), autoPilot or FSD. They may each have its own or the best one is used in all three, but each has an FCAS; else, Teslas would never know to invoke any of the driving sub-tasks, like slow down or speed up or stay in the lane, or don’t hit me, or … If a Tesla perception system detects an object that doesn’t exist and locates it as being in the lane ahead, i.e. a “stationary phantom object in the lane ahead”, then that perception system will signal to the automated driving system… to slow down and don’t hit it. If Tesla’s human driver is paying attention to what is going on and, of course, doesn’t see the phantom object (it is phantom = not real), then the alert driver is justified in losing trust that FCAS, autoPilot or FSD is reliable and won’t kill. The erosion of that trust leads to complaints, demands for refunds and substantial problems for Tesla.

Tesla has simply gotten ahead of itself in trying to get to Driverless too quickly, rather than making sure that Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) works better than “good enough”. My guess is, Tesla perception algorithm simply ignores stationary objects detected in the lane ahead and those detected to be to the side of the lane ahead.

Ignoring detected stationary objects is perfectly appropriate when following a car ahead. The car ahead didn’t crash into that detected stationary object ahead, so the coast is clear! I’ll be able to pass under/to the side/over it too! If the car ahead crashes into that object, Its sudden deceleration is readily perceived by the trailing Tesla’s AEB. As long as the Tesla has not been tailgating (which a good AEB should disallow), the Tesla should be able to stop in time to avoid crashing into the new pileup ahead. All easy, and likely not the scenario in any of the NHTSA crash investigations.

Not so easy if the Tesla is the lead vehicle, especially if the vehicle that the Tesla was following suddenly changes lanes and is no longer explicitly confirming that the Tesla’s road ahead is traversable, It is now the Tesla’s job to determine if it can pass under a stationary object in the lane ahead. That is simply not easy to do reliably. Not easy to determine the clearance under an overpass/sign/traffic light/tree canopy while approaching said overpass/… at any significant speed. If the object is classified as an overpass/sign/traffic light/tree canopy, the chance are really good that “passing under” is a breeze. However, if classification of the object is uncertain, then all bets are off.

I strongly suspect that Tesla’s perception algorithm disregards all stationary objects ahead when leading as well as when following. NHTSA has to tell Tesla to not do that any more!!! Tesla must go back, essentially to the beginning, and figure out how to reliably determine if it can pass under, beside or over stationary objects detected in the road ahead. Alain

September 1, 2021

Cruise gets the green light to give driverless rides to passengers in San Francisco
A. Hawkins, Sep 30, “Waymo and Cruise, two of the leading autonomous vehicle companies in the US, received permits from the California Department of Motor Vehicles to offer rides to passengers in their robotaxis.

But while Cruise was approved to give rides in its fully driverless vehicles without safety drivers, Waymo only is allowed to deploy its autonomous vehicles with a human monitor behind the wheel. In order to give rides to paying passengers in its fully driverless vehicles, as it does in Arizona, the Google spinoff would need to apply for an additional permit from the California Public Utilities Commission. … “
Read more Hmmmm… Congratulations Kyle, Robert and everyone else!!!! This is a non-trivial accomplishment!

Given all of the additional knocks on your door that will naturally come your way, we hope that you’ll keep us in mind. We here in NJ have assembled an enormously welcoming and realistic environment for Deployment to a customer base that will fundamentally benefit and cherish the Equitable, Affordable, High-Quality, Safe Mobility that is delivered by your Driverless Technology.

Hopefully you’ll divert a little bandwidth to our upcoming “5th Annual SDC Summit”, New Jersey’s next step in our process to help you and possibly others get to where you’ve gotten in California.

We are new kids on the block, but we’ve really gotten our act together to work with you and others to catch up quickly and really improve the quality-of-life for many here in New Jersey, and the rest of the NorthEast.

Again… Congratulations! So pleased and so well deserved! Alain

Link to previous SDC eLetters

Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
alaink@princeton.edu
609-980-1427 (c)

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