10.13 - Waymo In SF
March 31, 2022
13th edition of the 10th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Taking our next step in the City by the Bay
The Waymo Team, March 30, "This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we've begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of Waymo One riders we've been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives...." Read more
Hmmmm... Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually deliver "Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility" that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.
Let's look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers...
Trenton:
Population: 90,000.
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000
IntraTrenton: 150,000
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity:
VehicleTrips/Day: 50
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2
PersonTrips/VehicleDay: 100
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip
Electricity + maintenance + management + ... = $0.57/PersonTrip
Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million
IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
Operational Productivity
VehicleTrips/Day: 60
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5
PersonTrips/VehicleDay: 150
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43
Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57
Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00
Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year
90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value proposition could have the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)
Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn't be completely ignoring me. I guess I'm missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? 😎 Alain
F. Fishkin, March 30, The latest from the Symposium on the Future Networked Car, the UK investigates laws for driverless cars, cars....politics and Russia, Tesla and some big news from Waymo. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for Smart Driving Cars episode 262."
Technical support provided by:
FCN, March 19, "ITU is the UN specialized agency for information and communication technologies (ICTs). It allocates global radio spectrum and satellite orbits, develops the technical standards that ensure networks and technologies seamlessly inter-connect, and strives to improve access to ICTs to underserved communities worldwide. For a full description of its activities. ..."
Hmmmm... Challenges of standardization. It is never too early to start talking about standardization, but I question if it is too early to set standards. Thank goodness DSRC didn't become "the standard", because something substantially better came along. (I know standards don't make standards, but they may well lock things into status quos.) Alain
SmartDrivingCar Summit Now time to actually do something in the Trentons of this world.
K. Pyle, April 18, 2021, "It's time to hit the start button," is a succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' co-produced the final session of the. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a s, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it....."
Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"
Orf467F20_FinalReport ""
Kornhauser & He, March 2021
5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Registration required, Trenton, NJ (Open to All)
SmartDrivingCars / w/
F. Fishkin, March 25, "Where autonomous mobility vehicles operate matters. But why does too. And Mercedes takes a leap. That and more as Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Dick Mudge of Compass Transportation join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 261 of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars Watch here
F. Fishkin, March 21, "Apple reportedly has dissolved its car team and why is Alain now eating at McDonald's? Episode 260 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin has that plus GM, Cruise, Tesla, Aurora, Polestar and more."
SmartDrivingCars Watch here
F. Fishkin, March 9, "Cruise, with GM and Honda as operating partners, has gone truly driverless in San Francisco and is seeking permission to eliminate steering wheels in the Cruise Origin. EVP of Engineering Mo ElShenawy joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for a special edition of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars / w/ Michael Sena, Publisher, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, March 3, "How will electric vehicle charging stations make money? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena poses that question and many more on episode 258 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus Ford creates a distinct EV car business, an update on NJ progress and more. Tune in and subscribe...."
SmartDrivingCars Watch here Listen here w/ Brookings Institute & Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, Feb. 25, "So what about these reports and opinion pieces casting doubt on the future of autonomous mobility? The Brookings Institution's Cliff Winston and Reason Foundation's Marc Scribner join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to slice and dice. Plus GM Cruise, VW and more.."
SmartDrivingCars / w/
F. Fishkin, Feb. 18, "With Jaguar Land Rover signing on to partner with NVIDIA for advanced driver assistance and autonomous capabilities in all of their vehicles starting in 2025, what will the collaboration mean? NVIDIA's VP for Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Waymo, VW, Trenton and more."
SmartDrivingCars Watch here / w/
F. Fishkin, Feb. 11, "The engaging debate over disengagements. In episode 255 of Smart Driving Cars, Forbes.com Sr. Transportation Contributor Brad Templeton engages with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser over the path to the future of autonomous mobility. The latest data on disengagements from companies testing self driving vehicles in California, Tesla, Cruise, Waymo and New Jersey begins funding Trenton MOVES...are part of the spirited discussion with co-host Fred Fishkin."
SmartDrivingCars, w/Alex Roy,
F. Fishkin, Feb. 4, "Why Self Driving Isn't a Race, It's a Game. That's what Alex Roy, Director of Special Projects at Argo AI writes at joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars for a wide ranging discussion on that plus the latest on Trenton Moves, FreightWaves, Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota and more."
SmartDrivingCars, w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Jan. 27, "The Federal Trade Commission looks to level the tech playing field...but "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena has some words of warning. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo and more on Episode 253 of Smart Driving Cars.."
SmartDrivingCars, /, Prof. of Law Emeritus & IIHS
F. Fishkin, Jan. 20, "The IIHS has announced it will rate vehicle partial automation systems. Spearheading is research scientist Alexandra Mueller who joins us. And Professor Emeritus Michael Krauss from the George Mason University School of Law on the manslaughter charges leveled in a Tesla autopilot case in California. Episode 252 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin."
SmartDrivingCars Watch here / A. Kornhauser: Making it Happen: Trenton MOVES... a Framework for...
F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, "In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and his presentation: . The focus is on providing autonomous mobility in a place where there is real need. A first. Join the effort."
Recent Highlights of:
March 25, 2022
Alain T. Lee, March 15, "For a while now, we've been hearing rumors that Apple is apparently developing their own electric car tentatively known as the Apple Car. However, according to a tweet by analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, he has heard that the team behind the Apple Car has actually been dissolved for some time now.
Kuo also writes that should Apple want to be able to start mass producing their cars by 2025, a reorganization needs to happen within the next 3-6 months. It's actually a little bit weird to hear that the team has been dissolved, especially since it was last year that there were rumors and reports of Apple seeking out manufacturing partners and were talking to companies like Kia. ..."
Hmmmm...Not at all surprising. Apple's focus seemed entirely on making, what I call, a Self-driving car (~ Level 2) leveraging what Apple does best... Comfort & Convenience... rather than a Driverless (~Level 4) Equitable, Affordable, ..., Mobility Machine, which are not really Apple's strength. Apple must have realized that all OEMs and Elon are now well ahead of Apple and Apple can't leapfrog them. Alain March 9, 2022
M. Wayland, Feb 28, "In naming a new CEO of self-driving company Cruise Monday, majority-owner General Motors is handing the firm back to one of its original founders.
Kyle Vogt, who co-founded Cruise and ran the start-up for years following GM's acquisition in 2016, has once again been named CEO of the company. He announced the appointment Monday via social media, and it was later confirmed by a Cruise spokesman.."
Hmmmm...Congratulations Kyle! Fantastic. Alain March 4, 2022
M. Sena, March 1, "To all in Ukraine, continue to have courage against the aggressor. Everyone who supports democracy and freedom against tyranny stands with you. At such a time, when a free country has been invaded by a dictatorial power, discussions about automobiles and electricity seem trivial. But, in many ways, the issues of how we obtain our energy and how we use it are central to what is occurring now in the southeastern edge of Europe.
The U.S. federal government, along with many of the States, and the European Union, along with many of its member countries, are throwing money at battery electric cars. They believe the reason everyone isn't rushing out to buy one of these types of cars is because there aren't enough charging stations that drivers who normally charge at their place of residence can use when they are on long trips, or drivers who live in cities and don't have an off-street parking spot can use for their daily charging needs. I disagree. The biggest problem is that those running charging stations have to convince people to pay two-to-four times what they would pay if they plugged their car into their own electric outlet. It's less convenient and more expensive.
There is more in this issue. You can see a brief summary of the contents below. You can read the entire issue in the PDF attached or online by clicking here. Also below is a link to the program for the Symposium on the Future Networked Car 2022 to be held as a virtual event on the 22nd to the 25th of March. Plan on setting aside time to attend.
Enjoy your March issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. Horses run on feed; writers run on feedback...."
Hmmmm... I've. I also need feedback.. Check out the /Casts below with Michael. Alain
11, 2023
Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th."
Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain. February 4, 2022
New Date: Thursday evening, June 2, through Saturday June 4, 2022. Live in Princeton & Trenton, NJ.
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-980-1427 (c)