10.15 - Massive Scale

February 09, 2022Newsletter archive →

15th edition of the 10th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

Musk promises 'dedicated robotaxi' with futuristic look from Tesla

H. Jin, April 6, "Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a "dedicated" self-driving taxi that will "look futuristic," Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.

The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1 billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new headquarters.

"Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the factory...." Read more

Hmmmm... Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma's house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.

Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to "Massive Scale" scale and Massive Profitability.

RoboTaxis' evolution to "Massive Scale" is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn't seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.

Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. "Safe" is "safe", but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that's where they've already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.

For those that don't have their own car for whatever reason (can't drive, don't want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful. Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.

Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;

• those that don't already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.

• those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.

These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.

They'll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral! You'll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, .....

That's the natural road to "Massive Scale" for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.

"Massive Scale" starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain

A PRACTICAL APPLICATION FOR A BORING COMPANY

F. Fishkin, April 15, "Smart Driving Cars episode 264: Massive Robotaxi Move by #Musk and #Tesla? Elon Musk is saying Tesla will make a massive move into robotaxis. And what about his attempt to buy Twitter? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin weigh in on that...plus Argo AI coming to Greenville, South Carolina and Cruise expands Walmart deliveries in Arizona. That and more on episode 264 of Smart Driving Cars. Tune in and subscribe..

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Why users from the disability community must be included in your accessibility testing program for mobile website and app accessibility

May 16 -> May 19, 2022.

Hmmmm... A most important element associated with addressing the Sociology of SmartDrivingCar Technology. Alain

Highlights from the 4th Annual Princeton Driving Car Summit (2020-2021)

K. Pyle, April 18, 2021, "It's time to hit the start button," is succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times' co-produced the final session of the. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to "the Trentons of the World."

Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,....."

Hmmmm.... We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain

's Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:

n: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the "Trentons" of this World"

Orf467F20_FinalReport ""

Kornhauser & He, March 2021

5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit

https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit

@ Princeton University

, Trenton, NJ (Open to All)

SmartDrivingCars / w/

F. Fishkin, April 7, "Mobility takes on a different meaning for Ukrainian refugees. Henry Posner II and his Railroad Development Corporation has been helping to transport many into Germany. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 263 of Smart Driving Cars. That plus GM Cruise, Aurora, VW, Qualcomm & more." SmartDrivingCars / w/ Michael Sena

F. Fishkin, March 30, The latest from the Symposium on the Future Networked Car, the UK investigates laws for driverless cars, cars....politics and Russia, Tesla and some big news from Waymo. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for Smart Driving Cars episode 262." SmartDrivingCars / w/

F. Fishkin, March 25, "Where autonomous mobility vehicles operate matters. But why does too. And Mercedes takes a leap. That and more as Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Dick Mudge of Compass Transportation join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 261 of Smart Driving Cars."

SmartDrivingCars https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4A6NCpu2Rs/

F. Fishkin, March 21, "Apple reportedly has dissolved its car team and why is Alain now eating at McDonald's? Episode 260 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin has that plus GM, Cruise, Tesla, Aurora, Polestar and more."-

SmartDrivingCars https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4A6NCpu2Rs/ w/, EVP of Engineering, Cruise

F. Fishkin, March 9, "Cruise, with GM and Honda as operating partners, has gone truly driverless in San Francisco and is seeking permission to eliminate steering wheels in the Cruise Origin. EVP of Engineering Mo ElShenawy joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for a special edition of Smart Driving Cars.

SmartDrivingCars / w/ Michael Sena, Publisher, The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, March 3, "How will electric vehicle charging stations make money? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena poses that question and many more on episode 258 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus Ford creates a distinct EV car business, an update on NJ progress and more. Tune in and subscribe...."

SmartDrivingCars https://www.youtube.com/watch/ https://anchor.fm/smartdrivingcars/episodes/Smart-Driving-Cars-257-Marc-Scribner--Cliff-Winston-e1eu4l9w/, Brookings Institute & , Reason Foundation

F. Fishkin, Feb. 25, "So what about these reports and opinion pieces casting doubt on the future of autonomous mobility? The Brookings Institution's Cliff Winston and Reason Foundation's Marc Scribner join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to slice and dice. Plus GM Cruise, VW and more.."

SmartDrivingCars / w/

F. Fishkin, Feb. 18, "With Jaguar Land Rover signing on to partner with NVIDIA for advanced driver assistance and autonomous capabilities in all of their vehicles starting in 2025, what will the collaboration mean? NVIDIA's VP for Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Waymo, VW, Trenton and more."

SmartDrivingCars https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFegxpeq0Gk / w/

F. Fishkin, Feb. 11, "The engaging debate over disengagements. In episode 255 of Smart Driving Cars, Forbes.com Sr. Transportation Contributor Brad Templeton engages with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser over the path to the future of autonomous mobility. The latest data on disengagements from companies testing self driving vehicles in California, Tesla, Cruise, Waymo and New Jersey begins funding Trenton MOVES...are part of the spirited discussion with co-host Fred Fishkin."

SmartDrivingCars, w/Alex Roy

F. Fishkin, Feb 4, "Why Self Driving Isn't a Race, It's a Game. That's what Alex Roy, Director of Special Projects at Argo AI writes at joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars for a wide ranging discussion on that plus the latest on Trenton Moves, FreightWaves, Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota and more."

SmartDrivingCars, w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Jan. 27, "The Federal Trade Commission looks to level the tech playing field...but "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena has some words of warning. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo and more on Episode 253 of Smart Driving Cars.."

SmartDrivingCars, /, Prof. of Law Emeritus & , IIHS

F. Fishkin, Jan. 20, "The IIHS has announced it will rate vehicle partial automation systems. Spearheading is research scientist Alexandra Mueller who joins us. And Professor Emeritus Michael Krauss from the George Mason University School of Law on the manslaughter charges leveled in a Tesla autopilot case in California. Episode 252 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin."

SmartDrivingCars https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xFegxpeq0Gk /A. Kornhauser: Making it Happen: Trenton MOVES... a Framework for...

F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, "In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and his presentation: . The focus is on providing autonomous mobility in a place where there is real need. A first. Join the effort."

Recent Highlights of:

Let's look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers...

Trenton:

Population: 90,000. PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000 IntraTrenton: 150,000 PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles

Operational Productivity: VehicleTrips/Day: 50 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2 PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000

100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)

50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).

Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @$200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip Electricity + maintenance + management + ... = $0.57/PersonTrip Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip

New Jersey:

Population: 9+ Million

PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million

IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles Operational Productivity VehicleTrips/Day: 60 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5 PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000

10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).

Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @$200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43 Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57 Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00 Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)

10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:

10% @$2.00/PersonTrip (300,000$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year 90% @$3.70/personTrip (2.7M3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value proposition could have the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)

Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year

Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn't be completely ignoring me. I guess I'm missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? 😎 Alain

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXnluyz2GSE

Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th."

Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain. February 4, 2022

New Date: Thursday evening, June 2, through Saturday June 4, 2022. Live in Princeton & Trenton, NJ.

Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD

Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering

Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE

Director, Transportation Program

Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering

229 Sherrerd Hall

Princeton University

Princeton, NJ

609-980-1427 (c)