Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022
May 28, 2022
SmartDrivingCars eLetter
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https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
The Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles
M. Sena, May 24, “New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month’s the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.
There is no Musings in this month’s issue. Instead, I have put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric vehicles.
Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. …” Read more Hmmmm… Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain
SmartDrivingCarsZoomCast Episode 269/ PodCast 269 Michael Sena, Publisher of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, May 26, “Smart Driving Cars (episode 269) Did government car ratings take a wrong turn? The star rating system for new cars doesn’t offer the protections it should. That’s the view of consultant and “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 269 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus… another self driving promise from Elon Musk, the Smart Driving Cars Summit and more..”
Technical support provided by: https://www.cartsmobility.com
M. Druga, May 23, “Waymo recently announced it would introduce its autonomous vehicles at Sky Harbor International Airport in downtown Phoenix.
The company has more than 20 million autonomous public road miles of experience and currently provides fully autonomous rides in Phoenix’s East Valley and San Francisco.
Waymo’s Jaguar I-PACEs will drive autonomously around the clock and be tested near the 44th Street PHX Sky Train Station, close to pickup and drop-off location for other ride-hail services. Testing will begin with Waymo employees hailing rides between Downtown Phoenix and Sky Harbor and eventually expand to the public….” Hmmmm… Now I understand why Waymo is “too busy” to accept my invitation to come to the this coming week so that we in littl’ old Jersey could learn from them and join those who are traveling far and wide who want to help us.
Seems as if Waymo prefers to focus on being yet another good personal mobility option to get to/from “…. Downtown Phoenix and Sky Harbor …” and “cherry picking” what is likely the “bread and butter” of cabbies, and Uber/Lyft gig workers. One market where the clientel is likely to tip well (many are traveling using OPM) and substantially improves the ability of these drivers to make a living and feed their families.
Waymo has been so phenomenally successful in carefully and safely getting the Mobility Technology to work, but somehow seems to be totally lost when it comes to the Sociology of it all.
Spend all that money on a technological initiative that, when successful, is focused on going after a market that has little chance at delivering more than infinitesimal societal benefit. So sad.
Hopefully they will license their tech on reasonable terms to someone like who is better positioned to help us in littl’ old Jersey. Alain
A. Nedelea, May 23, “Elon Musk said back in 2015 that in two years’ time, Teslas would drive themselves without the need for supervision from a human driver. 2017 came and passed and even though the company has made undeniable progress with its self-driving tech, its boss eventually conceded that this was a harder task to achieve than he initially anticipated….” Hmmmm… Since Elon has lost all credibility, it really doesn’t matter what he is claimed to have said. As per above, the only statement that we should pay any attention to is if and when Elon ever says.. “if anything bad happens, I’ll fix it”. Then we have a chance of it really working well. Alain
R. Bellan, May 24, “The California Department of Motor Vehicles revoked Pony.ai’s permit to test its autonomous vehicle technology with a driver on Tuesday for failing to monitor the driving records of the safety drivers on its testing permit.
“While reviewing Pony.ai’s application to renew the testing permit, the DMV found numerous violations on the driving records of active Pony.ai safety drivers,” a spokesperson for the DMV told TechCrunch, noting that Pony had 41 autonomous test vehicles and 71 safety drivers on its permit.”…” Hmmmm… This is serious business with serious implications and it is really important that corners are not cut. Alain
Calendar of Upcoming Events
5thceton SmartDrivingCar Summit & Community Engagement
https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit @ Princeton University (Registration required) & , NJ
Recommended Readings & Background Material in advance of attendance & participation in 5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit & Community Engagement
Highlights from the 4th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit (2020-2021)
K. Pyle, April 18, 2021, “It’s time to hit the start button,” is succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times’ co-produced the final session of the. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to “the Trentons of the World.”
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it…..” Hmmmm…. We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
’s Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
n: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the “Trentons” of this World”
Orf467F20_FinalReport “”
Kornhauser & He, March 2021
SmartDrivingCars, CCO, Momentum Dynamics
F. Fishkin, May 15, Wireless electric vehicle charging can make autonomous mobility services more affordable for all. How? Momentum Dynamics Chief Commercial Officer Bob Kacergis explains on episode 268 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus..Oshkosh, Torc Robotics, Trenton Moves and more.”
SmartDrivingCars /
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F. Fishkin, May 7, “The Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is less than a month away, focused on making mobility for all a reality through Trenton Moves. Plus Tesla says Autopilot is achieving big results in improving vehicle safety. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that and more in episode 267 of Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars / w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, April 28, “Germany has given the green light for no hands on the wheel mobility. What does it mean? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us for that…plus Waymo, Tesla, Ford, Argo and more.”
SmartDrivingCars / w/, CEO,
F. Fishkin, April 23, “Designing the robotaxi rider experience. Uniphy CEO Jim Nicholas is forging partnerships to help transform consumer experiences with vehicles and more. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that…plus the latest on Tesla, Trenton and more. “
SmartDrivingCars /
F. Fishkin, April 15, “Smart Driving Cars episode 264: Massive Robotaxi Move by #Musk and #Tesla? Elon Musk is saying Tesla will make a massive move into robotaxis. And what about his attempt to buy Twitter? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin weigh in on that…plus Argo AI coming to Greenville, South Carolina and Cruise expands Walmart deliveries in Arizona. That and more on episode 264 of Smart Driving Cars. Tune in and subscribe..”
SmartDrivingCars / w/ F. Fishkin, April 7, “Mobility takes on a different meaning for Ukrainian refugees. Henry Posner II and his Railroad Development Corporation has been helping to transport many into Germany. He joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for episode 263 of Smart Driving Cars. That plus GM Cruise, Aurora, VW, Qualcomm & more.”
SmartDrivingCars / w/ Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, March 30, The latest from the Symposium on the Future Networked Car, the UK investigates laws for driverless cars, cars….politics and Russia, Tesla and some big news from Waymo. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for Smart Driving Cars episode 262.”
SmartDrivingCars / w/ &
F. Fishkin, March 25, “Where autonomous mobility vehicles operate matters. But why does too. And Mercedes takes a leap. That and more as Sven Beiker of Silicon Valley Mobility and Dick Mudge of Compass Transportation join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 261 of Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCars /
F. Fishkin, March 21, “Apple reportedly has dissolved its car team and why is Alain now eating at McDonald’s? Episode 260 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin has that plus GM, Cruise, Tesla, Aurora, Polestar and more.”
SmartDrivingCars / w/, EVP of Engineering, Cruise
F. Fishkin, March 9, “Cruise, with GM and Honda as operating partners, has gone truly driverless in San Francisco and is seeking permission to eliminate steering wheels in the Cruise Origin. EVP of Engineering Mo ElShenawy joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for a special edition of Smart Driving Cars.
SmartDrivingCars / w/ Michael Sena, Publisher, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, March 3, “How will electric vehicle charging stations make money? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena poses that question and many more on episode 258 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus Ford creates a distinct EV car business, an update on NJ progress and more. Tune in and subscribe….”
SmartDrivingCars / w/, Brookings Institute & , Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, Feb. 25, “So what about these reports and opinion pieces casting doubt on the future of autonomous mobility? The Brookings Institution’s Cliff Winston and Reason Foundation’s Marc Scribner join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to slice and dice. Plus GM Cruise, VW and more..”
SmartDrivingCars / w/
F. Fishkin, Feb. 18, “With Jaguar Land Rover signing on to partner with NVIDIA for advanced driver assistance and autonomous capabilities in all of their vehicles starting in 2025, what will the collaboration mean? NVIDIA’s VP for Automotive Danny Shapiro joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the latest on Waymo, VW, Trenton and more.”
SmartDrivingCars / w/
F. Fishkin, Feb. 11, “The engaging debate over disengagements. In episode 255 of Smart Driving Cars, Forbes.com Sr. Transportation Contributor Brad Templeton engages with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser over the path to the future of autonomous mobility. The latest data on disengagements from companies testing self driving vehicles in California, Tesla, Cruise, Waymo and New Jersey begins funding Trenton MOVES…are part of the spirited discussion with co-host Fred Fishkin.”
SmartDrivingCars, w/Alex Roy
F. Fishkin, Feb 4, “Why Self Driving Isn’t a Race, It’s a Game. That’s what Alex Roy, Director of Special Projects at Argo AI writes at joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest Smart Driving Cars for a wide ranging discussion on that plus the latest on Trenton Moves, FreightWaves, Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota and more.”
SmartDrivingCars, w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
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F. Fishkin, Jan. 27, “The Federal Trade Commission looks to level the tech playing field…but “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena has some words of warning. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for that plus Tesla, Waymo and more on Episode 253 of Smart Driving Cars..”
SmartDrivingCars, /, Prof. of Law Emeritus & , IIHS
F. Fishkin, Jan. 20, “The IIHS has announced it will rate vehicle partial automation systems. Spearheading is research scientist Alexandra Mueller who joins us. And Professor Emeritus Michael Krauss from the George Mason University School of Law on the manslaughter charges leveled in a Tesla autopilot case in California. Episode 252 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.”
SmartDrivingCars / A. Kornhauser: Making it Happen: Trenton MOVES… a Framework for…
F. Fishkin, Jan. 15, “In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and his presentation: . The focus is on providing autonomous mobility in a place where there is real need. A first. Join the effort.”
Recent Highlights of:
May 15, 2022
May 7, 2022
April 30, 2022
April 21, “CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at that:
Hmmmm… Yup! Alain
April 15, 2022
Hmmmm… Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma’s house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.
March 31, 2022
Let’s look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers…
Trenton:
Population: 90,000. PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000 IntraTrenton: 150,000 PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity: VehicleTrips/Day: 50 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2 PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip Electricity + maintenance + management + … = $0.57/PersonTrip Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million
IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles Operational Productivity VehicleTrips/Day: 60 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5 PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43 Electricity + maintenance + management … = $0.57 Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00 Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year 90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value poposition could have the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)
Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn’t be completely ignoring me. I guess I’m missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? 😎 Alain
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXnluyz2GSE
Feb. 11, “The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th.” Hmmmm… Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain. February 4, 2022
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New Date: Thursday evening, June 2, through Saturday June 4, 2022. Live in Princeton, NJ
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-980-1427 (c)