Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022
2022
rtdrivingcar.com/10.25-MayMobility-071522” shash=”CpNWWVxpvu4XL0PfCtt/4i7CjpH8SYfQa/o5I+2ONExjXoyYjpNPBaq5vGvh1CHRfYGjiYA0gtLtiPXKQfB0ERreZQTckYKrzLctMjghWXfxnjAWa18N5gW1rj6ry/ebVBchtvSYKLyDQuU8kJdKCU8ta4jdKvC6uwla2bpbsAE=” target=”_blank”> text-decoration: none;”>29th edition of the 10th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Tesla, GM Score Biggest Share of $1.2 Billion EV Order From Startup Autonomy
D. Hall, Aug. 9, “Tesla, GM, Volkswagen and Ford are among the automakers set to get big orders from Autonomy, a startup offering drivers the option of subscribing to an electric vehicle instead of buying one outright.
Autonomy plans to announce Tuesday that it's ordering nearly
23,000 EVs from 17 different automakers for a total outlay of
$1.2 billion. With chip shortages limiting production capacity
at most automakers, it's unclear how soon such a fleet could be
amassed. The order represents 1.2% of the projected US electric
vehicle production through the end of next year... ." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/tesla-gm-ford-evs-included-in-1-2-billion-order-from-startup) Hmmmm...
While this is a very interesting play for an individual
to acquire a subscription to have a "Drive-it-Yourself" (DiY)
electric
car that gives the individual anywhere
& anytime mobility. The subscription is acquired
using a simple anywhere & anytime mobile phone app
(the "autonomy" of the concept) that bundles, insurance,
maintenance, taxes, the vehicle,... Essentially
everything except the electricity. Just DiY it and get
from where you are to where you want to go when you want
to "Just do It" (JdI). All at an attractive
monthly subscription charge when you consider all that
is bundled. This is DiY/MaaSS (Mobility as a
SubscriptionService) for those that can DiY.
See the Bloomberg Video and well as SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 279 / PodCast 279w/Scott Painter, CEO Autonomy
I can readily envision the extension of Autonomy’s DiY/MaaSS to MOVES/MaaS where “MOVESMobility, Inc.” places a $n.m Billion RoboTaxi order with Tesla, (and/or GM, Toyota, VW, Benteler, Zoox, Baidu, Alibaba, AutoX, …) to deploy safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility for all 24/7/350+ throughout Trenton, Perth Amboy, Patterson, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, Edison, New Brunswick, Scranton, Greenville, Newburg, Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, .. and their environs’ Operational Design Domains (ODD). 😁 Alain
Alain
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SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 279
/ [PodCast 2](https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/UMfsxnc6psb)[7](https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/UMfsxnc6psb)[9](https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/UMfsxnc6psb af077d7791bda4%7C0%7C0%7C637960127162674052%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=%2FrDtcd%2BXgvyR4hTvuVpAvmKlb5Yl8%2BTf7YlJpVp7Cw0%3D&reserved=0) w/[Scott Painter, CEO Autonomy](https://www.linkedin.com/in/spainter)
F. Fishkin, Aug . 11, “After announcing it will spend 1.2 billion dollars on EVs and rapidly expand its vehicle subscription service, what does the future hold for Autonomy. Serial entrepreneur & CEO Scott Painter joins us for episode 279 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Tesla, Argo AI and more …”
Timeining Index:
@t=47 Autonomy CEO Scott Painter
@t=2635 Anti-Tesla ad campaign
@t=2657 Pittsburgh Post Gazette
@t=2967 Congressional push for AV legislation
Technical support provided by: https://www.cartsmobility.com/
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University’s Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
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Ralph Nader’55 urges regulators to recall Tesla’s ‘manslaughtering’ Full Self-Driving vehicles
A. Hawkins, Aug. 10, “Ralph Nader, a former presidential candidate and nationally recognized consumer protection advocate, called on federal regulators to recall Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) driver-assist feature, calling its deployment “one of the most dangerous and irresponsible actions by a car company in decades.”
Nader, who first came to prominence with the 1965 publication
of the bestselling book Unsafe at Any Speed, a highly
influential critique of the American auto industry, said that
the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
must use its recall authority to order that Tesla's FSD
technology be removed from every vehicle...." [Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2022/8/10/23299973/ralph-nader-tesla-fsd-recall-nhtsa-autopilot-crash)
Hmmmm... Agreed. The names must be changed. Elon
could continue calling it FSD where F stands
for Feeble or Frail. I'd love to host
a "crowd sourced" naming contest for autoPilot and FSD
that clearly conveys what they do well and don't do
well or at all. Winner gets a 5th Summit fleece.
(They are really nice.)
See also ZoomCast 289 @t=2485 Tesla, Ralph Nader Alain
Tesla self-driving smear campaign releases ‘test’ that fails to realize FSD never engaged
F. Lambert, Aug. 10, "A Tesla Full Self-Driving smear campaign
started by a California billionaire running for Senate has a new
attack ad based on a FSD Beta "test," where they failed to
realize they never engaged FSD Beta during the test.
Earlier this year, we reported on Dan O'Dowd, a self-described
billionaire and founder of Green Hills Software, a privately
owned company that makes operating systems and programming
tools....
Yesterday, the campaign, called The Dawn Project, released this ad titled “The Dangers of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Software.
As the video and its description explain, O’Dowd’s team claims that this is a test of Tesla’s “latest version of Full Self-Driving Beta software (10.12.2),” where the system crashes into a child-size mannequin:… However, there’s a real problem with the test: They never activated Tesla’s FSD Beta in the test. …“ Read more Hmmmm… Total slime!
See also A. Hawkins: An open letter to the Tesla fan who wants to run over a kid to prove a point and ZoomCast 289 @t=2635 Anti-Tesla ad campaign Alain
As self-driving car testing drives forward in Pa., experts and lawmakers turn their eyes to safety regulations
N. Mateer, Aug. 11, " ... And as the Pennsylvania Senate
prepares to consider legislation that could make it possible
to conduct self-driving testing without a person behind the
wheel, the issue is more important than ever...." [Read more](https://www.post-gazette.com/business/tech-news/2022/08/11/self-driving-cars-autonomous-vehicles-argo-ai-safety-pennsylvania/stories/202208100094)
Hmmmm... No!!! please don't explicitlypermit
"self-driving (or any kind of) testing" without a
person behind the wheel (or able to intervene
immediately without latency and with complete
perception of the driving situation) on any public
roadway in normal operation.
Zero net value is gained by testing without a alert and capable driver/attendant colsely overseeing the evolving process and fully capable to intervene immediately to avert a disaster. (One might be “penny wise” by foregoing some labor cost, but one would be “pound foolish” by incurring substatial unnecessary additional risk/liability exposure.) Safety throughout an ODD is fully demonstrated by operating without human intervention in the driving task throughout an ODD without crashing, period! Having or not having someone “behind the wheel” is totally irrelevant. The risk is NOT worth it! Just be honest about your testing throughout the ODD and the achievement of minimal disengagements.
Removal of the safety driver/attendant should only occur to make high-quality mobility affordable. See also ZoomCast 289 @t=2657 Pittsburgh Post Gazette Alain
Argo AI announces council to oversee safety standards of its self-driving cars
N. Mateer, Aug. 3, "Pittsburgh-based self-driving car
developer Argo AI has announced the formation of a council
that will oversee its autonomous vehicle safety.
The Argo Safety Advisory Council is made up of external
experts who will advise the company on safety practices and
building public trust in self-driving vehicles...." [Read more](https://www.post-gazette.com/business/tech-news/2022/08/03/argo-ai-self-driving-cars-autonomous-vehicles-safety-council/stories/202208020123)
Hmmmm... I thought that was what [PAVE](https://pavecampaign.org/) focused on. Glad to see
ARGO is all in on Safety. See also [ZoomCast 289](https://youtu.be/QIKxxJoD2Ps?t=2635) [@](https://youtu.be/QIKxxJoD2Ps?t=2892)! [t=2892](https://youtu.be/QIKxxJoD2Ps?t=2892) [Argo AI](https://youtu.be/QIKxxJoD2Ps?t=2892 7431425db5af077d7791bda4%7C0%7C0%7C637960127163299021%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=bYyNR%2FKeJ58hs%2B%2B3cV6CgZG0uXZNS1avb87JbxDppFI%3D&reserved=0) Alain
U.S. House lawmakers look to jump-start self-driving legislative push
D. Shepardson, Aug. 8, “Two members of the U.S. House of Representatives are launching a bipartisan effort to help revive legislative efforts to boost self-driving vehicles.
Representatives Robert Latta, a Republican, and Debbie
Dingell, a Democrat, told Reuters in a joint interview they
are unveiling the bipartisan Congressional Autonomous Vehicle
Caucus to help educate fellow lawmakers on the importance of
self-driving vehicles as they work to revive legislation.
"We're working hard to find that common ground to get
something that we can pass," Dingell said, adding the United
States must update motor vehicle safety standards written
decades ago assuming human drivers are in control and "cannot
afford to have a patchwork of laws either across 50
states."..." [Read mo! re](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-house-lawmakers-look-jump-start-self-driving-legislative-push-2022-08-08/)
Hmmmm... Maybe. But they need to realize that the
objective is the delivery of high-quality mobility
that is equitable, affordable, sustainable, and safe.
The value is in the substantially improved mobility
that automation can readily deliver (the "cake") ,
rather than any improvement in safety (the "icing"). See
also [ZoomCast 289](https://youtu.be/QIKxxJoD2Ps?t=2635) [@](https://youtu.be/QIKxxJoD2Ps?t=2967)[t=2967](https://youtu.be/QIKxxJoD2Ps?t=2967) [Congressional push for AV legislation](https://youtu.be/QIKxxJoD2Ps?t=2967 7C01%7Calaink%40Princeton.EDU%7Cded33bfcbe524e46095508da7d5b054b%7C2ff601167431425db5af077d7791bda4%7C0%7C0%7C637960127163455268%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=qAlW9l1brswtoAM2O6hKvZw7xLcoYcncaojbqmWZATM%3D&reserved=0) Alain
Tesla Model 3 and Y beco! me best-selling vehicles in California, pushing EVs to new record
F. Lambert, Aug. 9, "Tesla Model 3 and Model Y have become the
second-best and best-selling vehicles in California, helping
electric vehicle sales reach a new record in the state.
California has long been a leader in the US when it comes to EV
adoption.
There are many reasons for that: state incentive, a general
interest in new technology in the state, but also the fact that
until recently, it was home to Tesla, the largest EV company in
the world. Tesla holds massive market shares in the US electric
vehicle market, which California is a big part of.
This week, the California New Car Dealer Association (CNCDA)
released their Q2 2022 numbers that are giving us some insights
into Tesla's sales in the state.
CNCDA confirmed that Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are the two
best-selling vehicles in the state for the first half of
2022:...." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2022/08/09/tesla-model-3-y-become-best-selling-vehicles-california-pushing-evs-new-record/)
Hmmmm... Impressive. Alain
How the Zoox robotaxi predicts everything, everywhere, all at once
S. O’Neal, Aug. 9, “… The AI stack at the center of the Zoox driving system broadly consists of three processes, which occur in order: perception, prediction, and planning. These equate to seeing the world and how everything around the vehicle is currently moving, predicting how everything will move next, and deciding how to move from A to B given those predictions…” Read more Hmmmm… Yup. That’s what needs to be done to delver MOVES-style mobility for all. Alain
Calendar of Upcoming Events
Previous
SmartDrivingCarsZoomCast/PodCasts
These editions are sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provided technical support
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 278 / PodCast 278 Tesla 2022 shareholder’s meeting
F. Fishkin, Aug . 7, “Elon Musk talked about his vision for Tesla robo-taxis and more during his Q&A following the 2022 shareholders’ meeting. Weighing in on that and more is Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser on episode 278 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus TuSimple, GM Cruise, Lucid, Argo and more.”
Timeining Index:
@ t=55 Musk vision for autonomous taxis
@ t=728 When and where first robo-taxis will be deployed.
@ t=1177 What about the role of Musk’s Boring Company?
@ t=1530 Musk responds to Autopilot suggestion
@ t=1941 Alain on automatic emergency braking
@ t=2230 California acts against Tesla for using terms Full Self Driving and AutoPilot
@ t=2357 TuSimple blames human error for crash
@ t=2456 Barron’s reports When the Lawyers Come for Autonomous Vehicles
@ t=2552 GM President talks safety
@ t=3071 Alex Roy talks elevators!
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 277/ PodCast 277 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, July 30, “A look at cities & mobility, turmoil at VW, the cash problem at Cruise & more. “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena joins Alain Kornhauser & Fred Fishkin for another spirited discussion on episode 277 of Smart Driving Cars.” SmartDrivingCarsZoomCast Episode 276/ PodCast 276 w/R. Mudge, President, Compass Transportation
F. Fishkin, July 25, “Following the TRB gathering in California, what was accomplished? Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge joins us for a look. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, Baidu, Zoox & more. Smart Driving Cars episode 276 with Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.”
Link to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
’
Tesla’s 2022 Shareholder Meeting with Elon Musk
E. Musk, Aug. 4, .” Read more Hmmmm… Watch the Q & A portion starting about an hour in from the start. Watch especially the comments about his vision of the Tesla RoboTaxi (aka driverless cars, what I prefer to call autonomousTaxis or aTaxis, the new “Modern Transit”). The key visions are:
@ t=6375 … the issue of how he sees these driverless vehicles being operated (deployed).
While I don’t agree with the option of owning your own and renting it out “AirB&B -style where B&B = Mobility”. It is easier and more likely to begin by having a Professional entity managing a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis that provide mobility to the everyone in the community. This will be the the “Modern Public Transit”. An example being Trenton MOVES using a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis.
For these RoboTaxis to be attractive to a fleet operator, they will need to be styled differently than consumer versions that are sold to individuals. The RoboTaxi will need to be easy to get in and out and interface well with wheelchairs. They’ll need to accommodate ride-sharing (personTrips are the source of the revenue, not vehicle sales). They should have 4-wheel steering so they will never need to back up in stub-end operation. He has re imagined the pickup truck. Certainly, he can re-imagine a car focused on providing safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable high-quality mobility throughout a community.
At the end of addressing the future of Robotasis he states …” assuming we do all these things, I think, probably, Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.”
@ t=7057 Elon is asked “when will Tesla launch the first pilot city for the RoboTaxi business?
Elon dodged the question by stating that he is focused on doing driverless everywhere, even in every imaginable simulation of the real world. Consequently, once achieved, it could be released everywhere al at once.
While a great vision, this is simply not realistic. He started selling Teslas in California, not throughout the whole country. He fully understands that one must crawl before one walks, before one runs.
As you might suspect, I have the ideal “California” for him to first deploy his RoboTaxis and its not California or Arizona. It is New Jersey: Trenton, NJ or Perth Amboy, NJ or Patterson, NJ or many other cities in New Jersey where the mobility offered by Tesla RoboTaxis would be life changing to many while becoming an interesting alternative to everyone else. DoJo can more readily regress the coefficients to deliver safe driverless operation within any one of these Operational Design Domains (ODD) rather than trying to do them all simultaneously. Coefficients can/should be tied to ODDs rather than having one “magical” set that works in all ODDs. It is trivial for the Operating system to load the coefficients that work best in theRoboTaxi’s current ODD. This should allow RoboTaxis to demonstrate their technical, economic and societal virtues much sooner in these communities. Market success will fuel expansion and replication in the delivery of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility so that is spreads beyond New Jersey to California and beyond just like the purchase of the first Teslas spread from California to New Jersey and beyond.
@ t=7417 Elon is asked about the Boring Company.
True, if one could bore tunnels inexpensively, it would be great for longer distance travel. Certainly, all of the freeways in and around cities would be placed underground. High Speed rail on the NorthEast Corridor can only go underground for long stretches. Bringing the Dinky to a Nassau Street terminus must be done underground. By the way Washington Road should be underground eradicating the cancer that it is as a surface street severing the Princeton Campus. Then there is Rt. 29 that devastated Trenton by barricading the western part of Trenton from the Delaware River and Rt. 129 that severed neighborhoods; a scenario that was repeated in essentially every city to accommodate through-moving surface travel. They should all go underground. There is much good that could be done. The challenge is the above if.
@ t=6665 “when disengaging autoPilot with the wheel, the accelerator stays on. Please fix it!”
Maybe… touching or not touching the steering wheel has little in common with acceleration (and braking) which is (are) controlled by the feet. The steering control should be readily overcome by input of a torque on the steering wheel; however, the steering control should revert to dominance if the driver ceases to exhort a torque on the wheel. Moreover, torquing the steering wheel should not disengage the brake or the throttle.
With respect to the driver actions on the brake and throttle:
Driver input from the throttle should have precedence over “intelligent cruise control (ICC)” input to the throttle and brake and should NOT turn off the system simply because the driver touched the accelerator pedal.
For the brake, it is a little different. Tapping the brake should turn off the acceleration function of the ICC. Acceleration should remain off until the driver explicitly re-engages it. Moreover, driver input to the brake, if less than what the ICC calls for, should always be dominated by the ICC’s desire to brake. Tapping of the brakes should not turn off the braking function of the ICC. That intelligent brakig function should continue to keep m fro getting to close to the vehicle in front of me. The acceleration function has been turned off so I won’t accelerate into the back of the car ahead of me and the braking function should continue to do its best to keep a proper separation between me and the vehicle ahead. Turning the whole system off placing me completely in control should require an explicit action by me that indicates I’m knowingly usurping responsibility.
I believe ICC should be on all the time. Driver sets the speed and separation (or it is done automatically relative to the speed limit, weather conditions and road curvatures). Driver can choose to override the throttle and override the braking at any time; however, in the absence of overrides, the ICC is in charge. Alain
GM’s Cruise robotaxi unit drives deeper into the red Reuters, July 26, “General Motors Co (GM.N) has lost nearly $5 billion since 2018 trying to build a robotaxi business in San Francisco, and now as the automaker’s Cruise unit starts charging for rides, the losses are accelerating.
GM said on
Tuesday it
lost $500
million on
Cruise during
the second
quarter - more
than $5
million a day
- as it began
charging for
rides in a
limited area
of San
Francisco. ... that may be the case for the last quarter, but
the chart
below from [GM's 6/30/222 10-Q](https://www.dropbox.com/s/igs6ymicy8l10bi/Links2PodCast_55-275.pdf?dl=0) Shows ($800M) for the
last 6 months
or $4.38/day
when divided
by 182.625
Whew!😅...
Cruise's
costly effort
to transform
autonomous
driving
technology
from a
long-term
research
project to a
profit-spinning
business comes
as investors
are backing
away from
riskier bets
on technology,
and
reassessing
how soon robot
vehicles of
any kind will
be deployed in
large scale on
public roads.
Shares of autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR.O), for example, are down 80% for the year to date. Shares of robo-trucking company TuSimple Holdings Inc (TSP.O) have lost more than 70% of their value. Some automakers, including Ford Motor Co (F.N), have scaled back investments in automated vehicle units, or taken on partners to share the costs….
Cruise’s losses for the first six months of the year deepened to $900 million from $600 million during the same period in 2021 - when Cruise was not charging for rides. Higher compensation costs to keep staff on board after putting aside plans for an IPO were one factor in the results, GM executives said.
Chief
Executive Mary
Barra said on
Tuesday she is
still bullish
on Cruise, and
reaffirmed a
forecast that
the unit could
generate $50
billion a year
in revenue
from automated
vehicle
services and
technology by
2030. ." [Read more](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gms-cruise-robotaxi-unit-drives-deeper-into-red-2022-07-26/) Hmmmm... Nice optimism. T! he
source of the
reality check
above comes
from [GM's 6/30/222 10-Q](https://www.dropbox.com/s/lwm8r1u7kgf1kxc/0001467858-22-000094%281%29.pdf?dl=0). Start reading from page
41. then on
page 43:
Whoa! The only nice thing that can be imagined is by assuming that they’ve had essentially zero revenue, the operating costs have “only” been $800M for the last 6 months. That is non-small.
I’d like to suggest that the strategy of trying to create a profitable driverless mobility service for folks that already have 2 or more cars in their garage, have excellent public transit service or travel on expense accounts when wanting to go to between the airport and “downtown” may not be the wisest way to launch such a mobility service. There is little opportunity to be substantially better or even equivalent to what those potential customers already have. Little opportunity to get loyal and repeat customers. The focus to date has been too heavily weighted on getting the technology to work for folks who already have more mobility options than they know what to do with. Great for click-bait; challenging for the 10-Q. What must Waymo’s 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
Capturing loyal and repeat customers is really tough when the competition is excellent and entrenched. While pricing can be high, volume is almost non-existent even with nominal pricing. Except for the novelty, the marketplace in the Chandlers and SFs is essentially non-existent. To date those markets have been quiet, at best. What must Waymo’s 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
It astonishes me that to date none of the leading driverless companies have spent any money trying to serve the needs of folks that don’t own cars, aren’t traveling using someone else’s money, nor have access to a good public transit system focused on their mobility needs.
These folks definitely can’t pay as much for a ride as those that are being chased by Cruise & Waymo, but there are more of them. Moreover, its almost trivial to provide them with a mobility option that is substantially better than what they have today for many, if not most, of their daily personTrips.
This is the market that we’ve found in New Jersey; in Trenton & Mercer County, Perth Amboy & Middlesex County and Patterson & Passaic County. We haven’t even begun looking in Newark, Camden, Atlantic City and the rest of New Jersey.
The excuse seems to have been that it would be too expensive to deal with NJ’s bad weather, even though, we’ve made it clear that New jersey is not interested in a 365.25 days/yr. mobility solution. We’d be more than pleased with a 350 days/yr. operation. New Jersey has more than 350 good days a year. We aren’t so entitled that we can’t wait for the hurricane to blow through, the snow to be shoveled or the fog to lift before we go about our normal business. We enjoy the “snow day” at home. We are convinced that is actually easier and cheaper to capture recurring and loyal NJ customers.
The rule-of-thumb for a Trenton-MOVES style operation is: a vehicle needs to serve at least 100 personTrips/day. With slightly better ride-sharing and time-of-day pricing, one might be able to get to 150 personTrips/day. To cover a fleet of 100 vehicles, ridership needs to be about 10k to 15k personTrips/day. This kind of utilization leads to per personTrip capitalization costs of less that $1/personTrip for vehicles costing upwards of $150k @ interest rates upward of 7.5%. That is to say, $1/personTrip readily covers the vehicle capital costs even at moderate scales.
Given that trips on-average are less than five miles, vehicle operating costs are less than $1/personTrip.
Management costs are largely fixed. With volume the per personTrip burden decrease enormously, and can’t be more than $0.50/personTrip.
Break-even fare is thus roughly $2.50/personTrip.
An average market fare of $3.50/personTrip delivers a profit of >$1.00/personTrip,
$100/vehicle-day.
A fleet of 100 vehicles delivers a profit >$10k/day, >$3.0M/yr. in the Trenton ODD serving 10k personTrips/day.
From where do these 10k personTrips/day materialize?
Essentially all the riders of NJ Transit rail would love a simple reliable convenient way to get to & from the train. By on-demand service within the community around the train station, loyalty upwards of 80% could be achieved for anyone wanting to go to NYC or within walking distance to any other NJ train station. For Trenton that represents a marketplace of 8,000 personTrips/day that currently drive to & from the station every day and those that currently don’t use the train that would if it was easy and reliable to them to get to AND from the station, when they wanted to get to and from there. Half of the 10k would easily come from serving the Trenton Train Station.
Trenton Central HS has 1,800 students. More than 1,500 live more than a 10 minute walk to the TCHS. Truancy is proportional to how far a student has to walk to school. Trenton MOVES could readily serve 1,250 of these students every day. That’s 1/4 of the needed 10k.
We only need another 2.5k personTrips and we haven’t even begun dealing with getting people to & from work in Trenton, doctors, shopping visiting friends, etc. needed by the 70% of Trenton households who have access to one or zero cars. 100 vehicles serving 10k personTrips/day making >3.0M/year @ an average fare of $3.50/personTrip is just the start of a profitable business. Employing 200 vehicles costing at most $100k at interest rates of less than 7.5% serving 150 personTrips/day at fares of $3.00/personTrip makes way more than $5M per year.
Expanding Trenton MOVES throughout Mercer County giving the opportunity to increase average fare (because of the longer personTrips) to maybe $5/personTrip keeping utilization @ 150 personTrips/vehicle-day of a fleet of 1,000 vehicles and doing a little better on interest rates and cap costs can lead to profits of >$10M/year for Trenton/Mercer MOVES. There are at least 10 replications of Trenton/Mercer MOVES that could be done in NJ by 2030 utilizing a fleet of at least 10,000 vehicles leading to a profit of >$100M/year.
This kind of success leads to having many more people leave their cars at home and frequenting NJ-MOVES as their mobility system. This could lead to a NJ-Moves fleet of >100,000 vehicles is generating a profit of >$1B.
If Mary expects this to be achieved by 2030 and replicated in the 50 other states (on average) as the Universe she expects to exist in 2030, I’m hopeful but skeptical. My point is, that starting with Trenton MOVES as the big bang that achieved her vision seems to me to be a lot clearer that where Cruise/Waymo have chosen to try to create a Big Bang. Seems as if she and Kyle should be taking Trenton and New Jersey much more seriously. Please call me! Alain
[Baidu unveils autonomous vehicle without steering wheel](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-unveils-autonomous-vehicle-without-steering-wheel-2022-07-21/) Reuters,
July 16,
"China's
search engine
giant Baidu
Inc on
Thursday
unveiled its
new autonomous
vehicle (AV)
with a
detachable
steering
wheel, with
plans to put
it to use for
its robotaxi
service in
China next
year.
Cost per unit
will drop to
250,000 yuan ($37,031.55)
for the new
model,
compared with
480,000 yuan
for the
previous
generation,
Baidu said in
a statement.
"This massive
cost reduction
will enable us
to deploy tens
of thousands
of AVs across
China,"
Baidu's chief
executive
Robin Li said
at the Baidu
World
conference.
"We are moving
towards a
future where
taking a
robotaxi will
be half the
cost of taking
a taxi today." [Read more](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-unveils-autonomous-vehicle-without-steering-wheel-2022-07-21/) Hmmmm... Really?? [See video](https://nam12.safelinks.prot! ection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DbC5ItyrOeEk&data=05%7C01%7Calaink%40Princeton.EDU%7Cded33bfcbe524e46095508da7d5b054b%7C2ff601167431425db5af077d7791bda4%7C0%7C0%7C637960127164236462%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=SEv%2F4KLJCcBAsFpbUlHmdyDJYhsePHIc5LSGjJUzcG4%3D&reserved=0). Where do I buy 10 for immediate
delivery to
New Jersey
with option to
buy 100 more
by EoY'22 and
1st inline to
buy 1,000 more
by EoY'23. [eMail me](mailto: alaink@princeton.edu)!!!
While the design is certainly not ideal for “Trenton MOVES” or “Perth Amboy MOVES” they would be good enough to get started with addressing the “Sociology Challenges” of MOVES-style deployments. And the price is right if this isn’t total click-bait. But… that is a really big if . 🙁 Alain
MAY MOBILITY CLOSES $111 MILLION SERIES C FUNDING, BEGINS PRELIMINARY DEVELOPMENT ON TOYOTA’S NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY PLATFORM Press release, July 12,”May Mobility, a leader in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, today closed a $111 million Series C round of funding. Additionally, the company plans to continue to pursue its deployment programs using the Toyota Sienna Autono-MaaS vehicle platform while beginning development on another vehicle design centered around mobility, Toyota’s e-Palette, signaling the next potential milestone as it seeks new ways to bring equitable mobility solutions to the masses….” Read more Hmmmm… Hopefully this will enable May Mobility to take seriously Trenton MOVES and other MOVES-style deployment initiatives in New Jersey and beyond. Alain
[U.S. agency probing self-driving Cruise car crash in California](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-agency-probing-cruise-crash-california-2022-07-07/)
D.Shepardson,
July 7, "The
National
Highway
Traffic Safety
Administration
has opened a
special
investigation
into a recent
crash of a
Cruise
self-driving
vehicle in
California
that resulted
in minor
injuries, the
agency said on
Thursday.
The auto
safety agency
did not
identify the
specific
crash, but a
Cruise vehicle
operating in
driverless
autonomous
mode was
involved in a
crash
involving
minor injuries
on June 3 in
San Francisco,
according to a
[report filed](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_060322-pdf) with the California Department
of Motor
Vehicles. ...
" [Read more](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/The-Dispatcher_July_2022.pdf) Hmmmm... The police report indicates that! the Cruise vehicle
stopped while
making a
protected left
turn, yielding
to avoid being
T-boned by a
speeding Prius
that might run
its red.
Instead the
Prius changed
to its left
turn lane and
broadsided the
Cruise
vehicle. I
can't wait to
see the Cruise
360 video of
that crash.
Hopefully the
Prius'
insurance
company will
reimburse the
Federal
Government for
its expenses
incurred in
its special
investigation
of the crash
that it
caused. Alain THE
DISPATCHER
[Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/The-Dispatcher_July_2022.pdf)
June 24, M.
Sena "THE
DISPATCHER,
July 2022
IN THIS ISSUE
Princeton
Fifth Annual
SmartDrivingCars
Summit
...........
Safe,
Equitable,
Affordable,
Sustainable,
High-quality
Mobility for
Everyone
.......................................................2
Dispatch
Central................................................................9
Someone lit a
fire under
NHTSA
.......................................9
The Economist:
Right
analysis,
wrong solution ..............12
Musings of a
Dispatcher:
Eyes on the
Back
Story...........15
The evolution
of digital
maps and ADAS ........................15
Digital Maps
for the
Vehicle –
1970-2022
......................24
...
" [Read more](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/The-Dispatcher_July_2022.pdf)Hmmmm... Another great edition and very w! ell written summary
of the 5th
Summit. Alain
NHTSA Releases Initial Data on Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies
June 15, Press release, “Today, as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage innovation, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published the initial round of data it has collected through its Standing General Order issued last year and initial accompanying reports summarizing this data.
The SAE Level
2 advanced
driver
assistance
systems
summary report
i[s available here](https://www.nhtsa.gov/document/summary-report-standing-general-order-adas-l2), while the SAE Levels 3-5
automated
driving
systems
summary report
[is available here](https://www.nhtsa.gov/document/summary-report-standing-general-order-ads). Going forward, NHTSA will
release data
updates
monthly..."
[Read more](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/initial-data-release-advanced-vehicle-technologies)Hmmmm... This is a good
start;
however, as
NHTSA repeats
many times,
this is just a
start and
there are many
"data
limitations".
The most
severe may
well be the
possibility of
substantial "[sampling bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias)", the most severe of which is
that each OEM
sourced the
reported data
very
differently.
That makes the
data between
OEMs
incomparable.
Also un reported is any measure that would enable a “crash rate” for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.
Finally, 392 crashes of “Level 2” cars were reported during the “10” month period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022. About 12 million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate in the US. Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be involved in more than one crash per yer, it means that each vehicle, on average is involved in 12M/283M = 0.0424 crashes per year. Thus, if these ADAS cars were involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year contained in these data would expect to be generated from a fleet of only about 11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042% of the vehicles (“everything being equal”, ADAS on all the time.).
Consequently, either, …
-
These system outrageously reduce crash probabilities, and/or
-
maybe some, but we’re probably not much luckier.
-
very few of the cars in use during that “10” month period had Level 2 capabilities, and/or
-
unfortunately, the VIN number doesn’t identify these cars and only Tesla announces how many sold (I may have missed the reportings)
-
very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the Level 2 features, and/or
-
likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of its level 2 features but does so only in aggregate terms that don’t allow for correction of sampling bias associated with engagement in “easy” driving conditions versus “challenging” driving conditions.
-
enormous under counting
-
likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either “know all” or sample effectively because of their OtA monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone else has conveniently kept their heads in the sand. Mercedes didn’t report any; however, during that period I think my Intelligent Cruise Control and Lane Centering were engaged when I hit a deer. Mercedes must not have been watching me, I didn’t report it and I didn’t get the memo that informed me to do anything.
Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers are not startling.
What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents. Maybe OtA should be mandated. At minimum, the VIN should specify the existence of theses capabilities. Then normal police reportings can begin to “automatically” access the “black box event recorders” (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA) that are in most cars today. Unfortunately, privacy concerns makes this not-easy. So here we are. It wont be easy to do much better, but we should continue to try.
What the data do point out is that a substantial number of the crashes involved the rear ending of a stationary object. I have pointed out repeatedly that the source code of these systems explicitly disregard stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this explicit process is that current sensors incur unacceptable false positives when trying to determine if sufficient headroom exists under detected stationary object in the lane ahead. Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are all assumed to be “pass under-able”.
As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects in the lane ahead. These are readily sensed and precisely located ahead. Readily sensed are overpasses, signs, tree canopies, traffic lights, … all of which can usually be readily passed under. (As can vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode. These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower mode.)
But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe, most, if not all “Level 2” systems disregard that object and assume the car can pass underneath. So if you are in vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will disregard that object. Similarly, if the vehicle that you are following changes lanes forcing you to become a leader, any stationary object ahead will be disregarded. Alain
3 minute Promo: https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
[Dr. Steve Still's Tribute to Heywood Patterson](https://vimeo.com/716226813/1927a6fb4b)
S. Still, June
3, "...
Heywood
Patterson, 67,
He often drove
members of his
church to
Tops, helping
them load
their
groceries into
his car and
then taking
them home.
"That's what
eh did all the
time," Deborah
Patterson
said. "That's
what the loved
to do". ..."
[Watch Video](https://vimeo.com/716226813/1927a6fb4b)Hmmmm... A principal
reason for
"Trenton
MOVES"-like
deployments is
to do what
Heywood
Patterson
"loved to do"
for the many.
Alain
The Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles
M. Sena, May
24, "New Car
Assessment
Programs
(NCAPs) all
around the
world have
created a
separate and
unequal set of
standards for
vehicle safety
operating in
parallel with
the Type
Approval
processes in
most countries
and the U.S.
Federal Motor
Vehicle Safety
Standards and
their
equivalents in
other
countries. One
standard is
enough. In
this month's
the lead
article, I
look at why
this has
happened, why
it is not a
good idea, and
what should be
done to
correct the
situation.
There is no
Musings in
this month's
issue.
Instead, I
have put my
musings
energies to
work in
Dispatch
Central. You
can see the
topics below.
The section
ends with a
notable quote
from the CEO
of Stellantis
on the topic
of battery
electric
vehicles.
Enjoy your
June issue of
The
Dispatcher.
All comments
are welcome,
whether you
want to take
exception to
something I
have written
or you just
want to let me
know that you
got something
out of reading
it. ..." [Read more](chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglc! lefindmkaj/http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-Dispatcher_June_2022.pdf) Hmmmm... Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain
[From pricing carbon to fighting opioid abuse, ORFE showcased top senior projects](https://engineering.princeton.edu/news/2022/05/11/pricing-carbon-fighting-opioid-abuse-orfe-showcased-top-senior-projects) A.
Nathans, May
11, "When
Serena Ren
presented her
senior thesis
on using
machine
learning for
art appraisals
last month,
she hoped to
see her
friend, Joyce
Luo, present
her thesis on
fighting
opioid
addiction. But
since all
students in
the Department
of Operations
Research and
Financial
Engineering
present their
theses in
parallel
sessions, this
was
impossible.
But on May 4,
Ren and Luo
finally got to
see each
other's
presentations
in a classroom
in Sherrerd
Hall, thanks
to the
department's
first-ever
event in which
selected
students
present their
thesis work to
the whole
department....
" [Read more](https://engineering.princeton.edu/news/2022/05/11/pricing-carbon-fighting-opioid-abuse-orfe-showcased-top-senior-projects) Hmmmm... I'm so proud! Hopefully we'll be able to
release the
video so you
can enjoy.
Keep trying
the link:
[Princeton ORFE Class of 2022 Senior Thesis Symposium "Best 8"](https://youtu.be/RlrHnI5qvA0)
-
Isabelle Grosgogeat “Impact of women and minority ownership on private equity”
-
Joyce Luo “Equitable data-driven resource allocation to fight the opioid pandemic”
-
Caroline Noonan “The impact of carbon price on power plant dispatch, production costs, and total emissions”
-
Hari Ramakrishnan “Lighting up dark pools”
-
Serena Ren “Automatic art appraisals”
-
Mitchell Stroebell “A comparison of advanced player statistics for the NBA”
-
Jack Woll “Pairs trading and volatility”
-
Andre Yin “Equity trading strategies based on macroeconomic event analysis”
[PAVE VIRTUAL PANEL "AVS AND PUBLIC GOOD: TRENTON MOVES"](https://pavecampaign.org/event/avs-and-public-good-trenton-moves-2/) PAVE, May 4, "Autonomous vehicle technologies offer incredible potential: they could make our highways safer, they could offer new mobility options for people who can't drive, and they could help create a more equitable transportation system for those who are not well-served by our current system. During the month of May, we are highlighting places where AVs are in use — today — being deployed, tested, and used for public good. We want to look at examples of the technology being used to serve food deserts, to expand access to rural communities, to offer new accessibility options, and more. We are starting with the Trenton MOVES initiative, which is the first large-scale urban transit system in America based entirely on self-driving shuttles. The shuttles, which carry four to eight passengers, serve traditionally underserved Trenton neighborhoods, where 70% of households have limited access to a single automobile, or no access at all. Our panelists will detail the program, describing how it works, the results it has achieved, and their vision for the future......" [Read more](https://pavecampaign.org/event/avs-and-public-good-trenton-moves-2/) Hmmmm... Very nice. Be sure to[watch video](https://youtu.be/KawGghbte4s) 😁 and see [ZoomCast 267](https://youtu.be/mJLwot_SfrI?t=1137 4%7C0%7C0%7C637960127165017663%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=6UM%2FABMq4iH20BJ3NoZw1pwohU9b42KnqbH07va9hx8%3D&reserved=0) Alain [NJDOT Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program](https://allenovery.podbean.com/e/propel-njdot-commissioner-gutierrez-scaccetti-and-the-trenton-nj-moves-program/)
P. Keller, April 29, “New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton…..” Read more Hmmmm… Very nice. 😁 rq5GCwp3o=” target=”_blank”>Saturday, April 23, 2022
[Knight Foundation](https://twitter.com/knightfdn) April 21, "CARTS Executive Director Jerry
He explains to
the audience
at [#CoMotionMiami](https://twitter.com/hashtag/CoMotionMiami?src=hashtag_click) that:
Hmmmm… Yup! See ZoomCast265 Alain
[Musk promises 'dedicated robotaxi' with futuristic look from Tesla](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-open-texas-factory-critical-growth-ambitions-2022-04-07/) H.
Jin, April 6,
"Electric
carmaker Tesla
(TSLA.O) will
make a
"dedicated"
self-driving
taxi that will
"look
futuristic,"
Chief
Executive Elon
Musk said on
Thursday,
without giving
a timeframe.
The
50-year-old
billionaire,
wearing a
black cowboy
hat and
sunglasses,
made the
comments at
the opening of
Tesla's $1.1
billion
factory in
Texas, which
is home to its
new
headquarters.
"Massive
scale.
Full
self-driving.
There's going
to be a
dedicated
robotaxi,"
Musk told a
large crowd at
the
factory...." [Read more](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-open-texas-factory-critical-growth-ambitions-2022-04-07/)
Hmmmm… Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma’s house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.
Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn’t have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma’s house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to ”Massive Scale“ scale and Massive Profitability.
RoboTaxis’ evolution to ”Massive Scale“ is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn’t seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.
Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. ”Safe” is “safe”, but “high-quality” is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that’s where they’ve already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.
For those that don’t have their own car for whatever reason (can’t drive, don’t want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful. Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.
Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving “Massive Scale” then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;
-
those that don’t already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.
-
those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.
These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton’s 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton’s 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year’s 365.25.
They’ll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral! You’ll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, …..
That’s the natural road to ”Massive Scale” for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.
“Massive Scale” starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain
[Taking our next step in the City by the Bay](https://blog.waymo.com/2022/03/taking-our-next-step-in-city-by-bay.html?m=1) The Waymo
Team, March
30, "This
morning in San
Francisco, a
fully
autonomous
all-electric
Jaguar I-PACE,
with no human
driver behind
the wheel,
picked up a
Waymo engineer
to get their
morning coffee
and go to
work. Since
sharing that
we were ready
to take the
next step and
begin testing
fully
autonomous
operations in
the city,
we've begun
fully
autonomous
rides with our
San Francisco
employees.
They now join
the thousands
of Waymo One
riders we've
been serving
in Arizona,
making fully
autonomous
driving
technology
part of their
daily
lives...." [Read more](https://blog.waymo.com/2022/03/taking-our-next-step-in-city-by-bay.html?m=1) Hmmmm... Congratulations! Eno! rmous accomplishment and
fundamental
expression of
confidence in
your
technology.
Please come to
New Jersey
where we are
certain that
you can
actually
delier "Safe,
Equitable,
Affordable,
Sustainable,
HIgh-quality
Mobility" that
will
substantially
improve the
quality-of-life
of many by
transforming
affordable
housing into
affordable
living and
more.
Let’s look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers…
Trenton:
Population: 90,000. PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000 IntraTrenton: 150,000 PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity: VehicleTrips/Day: 50 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2 PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip Electricity + maintenance + management + … = $0.57/PersonTrip Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million
IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles Operational Productivity VehicleTrips/Day: 60 Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5 PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150 PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost: Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43 Electricity + maintenance + management … = $0.57 Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00 Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year 90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value poposition could hae the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)
Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn’t be completely ignoring me. I guess I’m missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? 😎 Alain
[Moving Forward with Trenton MOVES](https://viodi.com/2022/02/09/moving-forward-with-trenton-moves/) K. Pyle,
Feb. 9, "Dr.
Alain
Kornhauser's
vision of
bringing
equitable,
sustainable,
and affordable
mobility to
the people of
Trenton took
another step
forward with
the February
9th, 2022
announcement
(Facebook) of
a $5 million
NJDOT Local
Transportation
Planning Fund
Grant for the
Trenton
Mobility &
Opportunity:
Vehicles
Equity System
(MOVES)
Project (PDF).
The
significance
of this event
goes beyond
the grant
announcement..."
[Read more](https://viodi.com/2022/02/09/moving-forward-with-trenton-moves/) Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
Smart Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving
Feb. 11, "The
New Jersey DOT
is providing 5
million
dollars to get
Trenton MOVES
moving. The
goal..autonomous,
affordable,
safe mobility
for all.
This is a
video of the
event held on
February
9th." [Read more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXnluyz2GSE) Hmmmm... Fantastic even with
challenging
audio. Turn
on Closed
Caption. The
substance is
in the quality
of the words
from the
Mayor,
Commissioner
and
Superintendent.
All from the
heart. Very
worth
absorbing.
Alain.
none;"> [Trenton MOVES](https://www.dropbox.com/s/kxyvrjqi1u351tj/TretonHS_Announcenet_Invitation.pdf?dl=0)
W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,”We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originallyannounced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.
The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on
in the Trenton
Central High
School
auditorium.
Members of the
press will be
invited to
attend. ...."
[Read more](https://www.dropbox.com/s/kxyvrjqi1u351tj/TretonHS_Announcenet_Invitation.pdf?dl=0) Hmmmm... Another real milestone. &! nbsp;
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the5thPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES’ mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. 😁 Alain
###
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-980-1427 (c)
This list is maintained by [Alain Kornhauser](mailto:alaink@princeton.edu) and hosted by the [Princeton University LISTSERV](http://lists.princeton.edu/).
This list is maintained by Alain Kornhauser and hosted by the Princeton University LISTSERV.