Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022
Click or tap if you trust this link.”> or tap if you trust this link.”> Click or tap if you trust this link.”>Sunday, December 25, 2022 or tap if you trust this link.”> 47th edition of the 10th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Autonomous Vehicles Reality Check Part 2: Moving People
R. Bishop, Dec. 22, “ Recent reporting/blogging about AV’s can be maddeningly confusing, because the days of saying anything meaningful about “AV’s” as a singular entity are long past. What’s going on depends on what kind of AV you’re talking about. Writers and pundits can pontificate about “the trouble in AV City” if they want, but they must first explain what AV sector they’re referring to. To make sweeping statements is meaningless; the dynamics of the technical, operational, and business factors are too diverse. Thus this three-part article series, my shot at describing the great breadth of today’s AV’s and providing color commentary.
A fundamental AV distinction regards what's inside the vehicle:
people or freight? This Part Two article focuses on moving
people. Part Three will focus on moving goods.
Two Distinct Domains: Private or Commercial? ….” Read moreHmmmm….. Excellent, must read that among other things makes clear the distinction between what are largely orthogonal markets: Private (selling a vehicle) and Commercial (selling a ride) .
What is missing, especially in the “selling a ride” coordinate is appreciation for the diversity of the “people” being moved. The spectrums spanning poor -> rich; young ->old; able-> dis-able; conservative -> liberal; …. that reflect not only on when & where each of those individuals choose to go but also on their choice as which commercial AV deployment they’ll choose to make the trip that today isn’t made or switch from the way they are going today.
As we know from the movement of goods, one size doesn’t fit all; one deployment doesn’t fit all. Pick-ups do well for haulin’ some of your own stuff, Class 8’s for big valuable stuff. Then there are flatbeds, tankers, cements, choo choos, boats, … and so on for very specific stuff. It ends up really mattering what good it is when it comes to figuring out what and how to deploy something to best move it.
My point is the discussion about deployment along the private and especially the commercial domains has failed to recognize the diversity of the customer set and is failing to deploy near-term capabilities to be better serve the mobility needs of individuals that would be best served by that deployment.
Moving people is a “big-dimensional” market characterized by foudomains: {P, A, B, t} where P = people; A = from location; B = to location; t = time.
Deployment must address not only the diversity of A, B and t but also that of P. In order for an AV deployment to capture a customer it needs to be the best for that customer when that customer wishes to go from A to B at time t. That’s the deployment challenge . The diversity of P is certainly as important as that of A, B and t. To date the deployment focus has been one-size to fit all that has fit very few in the deployed Operational Design Domain. Alain
SmartDrivingCars [ZoomCast 296](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjF3i3uUUz4) / [PodCast296](https://anchor.fm/smartdrivingcars/episodes/mart-Driving-Cars-Floridas-10th-annual-Automated-Vehicle-Summit--Waymo--TuSimple--more-e1sdcvc?%24web_only=true&_branch_match_id=907792449640522550&utm_source=web&utm_campaign=web-share&utm_medium=sharing&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA8soKSkottLXLy7IL8lMq0zMS87IL9ItT03SSywo0MvJzMvWT9UviwryD0%2FxKgssSwIALtk4sTAAAAA%! 253D&data=05%7C01%7Calaink%40princeton.edu%7Cd018ca623a7f4c8073e808dae1487f3d%7C2ff601167431425db5af077d7791bda4%7C0%7C0%7C638069998756378705%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=rlrvSxGDDt9m7dd39ZSfTcCINaTh5UPBcjMJyW42ha8%3D&reserved=0) w/ Jeff Brandes,
term-limited Florida State Senator & visionary of all 10
annual Florida Automated Vehicle Summits
- 0:00 “F. Fishkin, Dec. 17, “The driving force behind Florida’s 10th annual Automated Vehicle Summit, former State Senator Jeff Brandes, joins Alain and Fred for a dive into the progress to date and what’s to come. Plus Waymo, Uber Eats, TuSimple and more.open1:00Jeff Brandes background5:50Is technology being used to provide some societal good7:51Highlights from 10th annual Florida Automated Vehicle Summit24:24Brandes on what is next for him34:34NY Times: Once You See the Truth About Cars37:13Waymo doing airport transportation in Phoenix39:11Uber Eats will use sidewalk deliver robots in Miami40:30TuSimple reportedly will lay off many in coming week”fishkin@techstination.com732-928-4691
- 0:00 “F. Fishkin, Dec. 11, “Squad Mobility is bringing its solar powered mini vehicle, the Solar City Car to CES next month. CEO Robert Hoevers joins Alain and Fred on episode 295 to show and tell. Plus the upcoming Florida AV Summit, Tesla, the Everyday Astronaut and more.open1:00Squ! ad Mobility CEO Robert Hoevers5:23Deployment potential for Squad Mobility?11:45How adding autonomous capability can help24:40Florida AV Summit upcoming29:30The Everday Astronaut, Tim Dodd, is heading to space32:10LA Times on Tesla claiming FSD may be failure but not fraud38:02Radar coming to Teslas38:58Matt Lowne Steam Train Station animation42:08More on Henry Posner and trains assisting Ukrainians42:43TRB gets new executive directorSmartDrivingCarsZoomCast 294/PodCast294w Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
- 0:00 open1:00The Shifting Driverless Car Landscape15:00Autonomous mobility companies have gotten the deployment wrong22:14Automakers pausing paid advertising on Twitter. Michael’s perfect pizza explanation.31:54China Inc. Global Automobile Monopoly?47:17Cities have forgotten what sidewalks are for58:43A most intelligent discussion of Artificial Intelligence. Is there even such a thing? 72:00 Tesla releases FSD update and delivers first Tesla Semis to Pepsi. Can Tesla be a major player in trucking?
- 0:00 open0:42what happened to Alain1:43Argo AI’s lifeline from Amazon that never came5:00Ambarella/Continental Deal12:14Cruise Safety Report13:00Tesla opens up FSD18:44Cybertruck pre-orders top 1.5 million19:47HOLON! 23:08NY Times on AI Recipes24:17Mercedes to charge subscriptions for performance boost27:00Nuro layoffs29:33BrightDrop
- 0:00 open1:00Tesla FSD Beta tester Chuck Cook29:05Chuck Cook unprotected left turn FSD videos39:00Is Tesla using customers improperly to Beta test?52:40Motional and Lyft to launch fully driverless ride hailing in L.A.53:37Waymo shows new prototype vehicle without steering wheel54:10Cruise expands SF driverless service to daylight hours56:34Tesla’s data advantage
- 0:00 open01:00A New Deployment Framework for Autonomous Vehicles presentation01:04:20Waymo making passenger trips to Phoenix airport01:06:30Layoffs at Lyft01:09:30Aurora reaffirms enough cash until commercial deployment01:10:30New FSD Beta from Tesla
- 0:00 Intro1:18Battle over batteries15:53Electricity generation and electric vehicles22:28Tech to solve ungated railroad crossing dangers26:11Pollution from tires32:23Sean Connery’s Aston Martin34:08Some hood ornament history40:00South Korean wants half of all cars autonomous by 203543:22Why don’t you have a self driving car yet? Brad Templeton writes in Forbes
- 00:42 new Tesla FSD Beta15:37Tesla AI Day coming19:07Space X Launch21:06NY Times Essay on oversized EVs24:18California to ban gasoline cars by 203525:43Toyota Research Institute says AVs not imminent31:35Tesla acts agains Dawn Project and O’Dowd32:19Pitssburght Guaranteed Basic Mobility38:24Waze shutting carpooling service41:09NASA readies Artemis
Technical support provided by: CARTSmobility.com a 501c3 dedicated to Safe & High-Quality Mobility for All. Tax-deductible donations are most appreciated @ Support CARTS’ mission to provide safe & high-quality mobility for all
The 2022 FAV Summit at Omni Amelia Island Resort
[Robocars and Cities FAV 22](https://prezi.com/view/gV0zcWMJTyXCdmDAPVSN/)
B. Templeton, Dec 15, "…." [Go through slides](https://prezi.com/view/gV0zcWMJTyXCdmDAPVSN/)Hmmmm... Excellent!
Most well done! Look for Brad making a video of this
presentation. Alain
Autonomous Transit Networks in Florida - Jacksonville MOVES and Tallahassee MOVES
J. He, Dec 13, “On the occasion of the 10th Florida Automated Vehicles Summit ‘22, CARTS released our study for the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for a MOVES-type, city-wide deployment of autonomous transit network (ATN) for Jacksonville, FL and Tallahassee, FL.….” Read moreHmmmm… Very interesting! Alain
Cruise’s driverless robotaxis are accepting passengers in Phoenix and Austin
A. Hawkins, Dec. 20, “Cruise is delivering on its promise to expand its robotaxi service to two new markets before the end of the year. For years, Cruise has operated its autonomous ridehail service exclusively in San Francisco. But earlier this year, the GM-backed company said it would launch in Phoenix, Arizona, and Austin, Texas, before the end of 2022.
On Tuesday, Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt tweeted a short video of
passengers from those two cities raving about its fully
driverless vehicles as proof of a promise delivered. "Folks, we
are entering the golden years of AV expansion," he added.…" [Read more](https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/20/23518833/cruise-driverless-taxi-austin-phoenix-waitlist) Hmmmm... Excellent. Congratulations Kyle.
Alain
Elon Musk’s giant payday on trial: everything he said in court
T. Sottek, Dec. 22, “These days Elon Musk is always on trial in the court of public opinion, but occasionally he’s also on trial in actual court. On Wednesday, November 16th, Musk testified in the Delaware Court of Chancery in the legal trial over his $56 billion pay package from Tesla. You might recall that this is the same court (and judge) Musk would have appeared before if he had not completed his takeover of Twitter, so it was kind of like a peek into an alternate simulation. Even Musk seemed to think so:. …” Read more Hmmmm… . Whew! Interesting. Alain
Trimble to acquire transportation management platform Transporeon for $1.9B
J. DiNapoli, Dec. 16,”Technology solutions provider Trimble Inc. has announced it will acquire German logistics company Transporeon, which uses a cloud-based TMS to connect carriers, logistics service providers and shippers.
The all-cash deal unveiled Monday is valued at $1.98 billion
and expected to close in the first half of 2023.
Rob Painter, Trimble's president and CEO, said digital
software solutions are in high demand in the commercial
transportation market and the acquisition of Transporeon
represented a great opportunity.
"We've kept our eyes on this business for years," Painter said
during a call to discuss the deal with analysts and investors
on Tuesday. "We are building a business for the long term and
assets like this don't come along often. We kept our balance
sheet in a position to be able to act on opportunities like
this. So when we got approached, we quickly engaged."
Trimble (NASDAQ: TRMB) is a Sunnyvale, California-based supply
chain technology provider for trucking companies, freight
brokerages and 3PLs. Its transportation division provides
services such as enterprise, mobility, final-mile, mapping and
maintenance solutions...." …" [Read more](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/trimble-to-acquire-transportation-management-platform-transporeon-for-19b?j=228735&sfmc_sub=44180492&l=256_HTML&u=4744394&mid=514011755&jb=21007&utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=FW_Daily_12_14_22&utm_term=Trimble+to+acquire+transportation+management+platform+Transporeon+for+%241.9B&utm_id=228735&sfmc_id=44180492) Hmmmm... Wow, I should have
stayed in the business. :-) Alain
BC joins growing number of colleges banning electric scooters on campus
Staff, Dec. 25, “ Boston College will ban electric scooters and other electric transportation devices, including hover boards and electric skateboards, from campus beginning December 22.
According to a December 7th letter sent to the BC community from
Vice President for Student Affairs Shawna Cooper Whitehead, Vice
President for Human Resources David Trainor, and Executive
Director of Public Safety William Evans, the decision was made
to help ensure the safety of all members of the BC community. …." [Read more](https://www.bc.edu/content/bc-web/bcnews/campus-community/announcements/e-scooter-policy-change.html) Hmmmm….. Yea!! Alain
California passes law banning Tesla from calling software FSD
J. Crider, Dec. 23, “ California passed a new law banning Tesla from calling its software Full Self-Driving (FSD). Although Tesla has never claimed that FSD was fully autonomous, the electric–maker is developing the technology for fully autonomous vehicles. Until its vehicles are fully autonomous, drivers must be alert and ready to take over at all times when engaging FSD or Autopilot.
California lawmakers, however, disagree with the labels of FSD.
Senate Bill 1398 was one of the hundreds that Governor Newsom
signed into law. The new law takes effect in 2023 and
specifically targets Tesla's name for its software. The bill was
sponsored by Senate Transportation Committee Chair Lena
Gonzalez, who claimed that Tesla falsely advertised its tech and
that doing so was a safety issue …."
[Read more](https://www.teslarati.com/califonia-banning-tesla-fsd/) Hmmmm….. Yea, I hope that we
can now move on. Alain
Tesla China Rumors, Wedbush Cuts Price Target, Discount Impact, PCE
R. Maurer, Dec. 23, “ ➤ New rumors and reports on Tesla in China
➤ PCE report
➤ Wedbush cuts TSLA price target
➤ US discounting drives inventory down
➤ Megapack leak
➤ Twitter CEO report …." [Read more](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcIlmUxJLBU) Hmmmm….. Interesting. Alain
Previous SmartDrivingCarsZoomCast/PodCasts
https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provided technical support
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 295 / PodCast295 w/ Robert Hoevers, CE, Squad Mobility
“F. Fishkin, Dec. 2, “ With The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joining Alain and Fred this is a meaty episode 294 of Smart Driving Cars. On the agenda: the driverless car landscape shifts, China’s car strategy, is AI really AI, can Tesla make it big in trucking and what is happening to sidewalks? And there’s more…in this deep December discussion.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 293 / PodCast293
“F. Fishkin, Nov.. 27, “ The reported Argo lifeline from Amazon that never arrived, The Ambarella/Continental deal, a safety report from Cruise, and Tesla opens up FSD and moves to block cheating on attentiveness. Episode 293 of Smart Driving cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 292 / PodCast292 w/Chuck Cook, FSD Betta Tester
“F. Fishkin, Nov.. 18, “ Chuck Cook, pilot and airline industry veteran, has been a prominent Tesla FSD Beta tester, well known inside and outside the company. Recently featured in the NY Times, Chuck joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin on episode 292 of Smart Driving Cars for a look at where FSD is today.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 290 /PodCast 290 A New Deployment Framework for Autonomous Vehicles
“F. Fishkin, Nov.. 6, “On episode 290 of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser shares a presentation just delivered in Vancouver titled…A New Deployment Framework for Autonomous Vehicles. Plus.. he chats with co-host Fred Fishkin about Waymo, Lyft, Aurora, Tesla and more.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 289 /PodCast 289Argo Shuts Down w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Oct. 27, “The demise of #Argo AI, the joint Ford-Volkswagen venture is a step forward for autonomous vehicles, not a step back. So says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser on episode 289 of Smart Driving Cars. Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena for that plus #Tesla, Elon Musk and more.”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 288 /PodCast 288 So Disappointing!
F. Fishkin, Oct. 23, “Waymo is bringing Robotaxi service to L.A.. But Princeton’s faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering is concerned the focus may not be in the right places. Alan Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on Waymo, Lyft, Tesla and a test drive in the Ford F-150 Lightning on episode 288 of Smart Driving Cars. “
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 287 /PodCast 287 Special Edition: The ABCs of Autonomous Vehicles: Technology, Economics and Policy
F. Fishkin, Oct. 12, “A special webinar edition of Smart Driving Cars: From the Reason Foundation , The Brookings Institution and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering, welcome to the ABCs of Autonomous Vehicles: Technology, Economics and Policy. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser, Cliff Winston of Brookings and Marc Scribner of Reason and moderator Fred Fishkin.
“SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 286 /PodCast 286 Tesla AI Day
F. Fishkin, Oct. 9, “The biggest take-away from Tesla’s 2022 AI Day? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser says it’s the massive compute power. Why? Join Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 286 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Kodiak Robotics, Mobileye, Uber, Motional and an upcoming webinar on The Present and Future of Autonomous Vehicle Technology. ”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 285 /PodCast 285 w/Michael Sena, Editor of the Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Sept 27, “Will the world be facing a Mad Max scenario for battery components as electric vehicles fill the roadways? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena has some advice for decision makers on episode 285 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. And more on the EV tax credits, tire pollution, a tech solution to railroad crossing dangers and some hood ornament nostalgia. Or listen.. ”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 284 /PodCast 284 w/Danny Shapiro, VP Automotive, nVIDIA
F. Fishkin, Sept 22, “What will NVIDIA’s DRIVE Thor mean for companies looking to deliver autonomous mobility? VP of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins us for episode 284 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus the Biden administration is funding Smart Transportation Technology, GM Cruise aims to develop chips for self driving and the NTSB pushes tech to combat impaired and reckless driving.”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 283 /PodCast 283
F. Fishkin, Sept 11, “The strategy for survival at Aurora, new Detroit testing for Mobileye, NVIDIA’s coming virtual developer conference and another AI upcoming for Tesla. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin share the latest on those stories and more on episode 283 of Smart Driving Cars.”
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI Open
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=80 Aurora
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=762 Mobileye
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=872 NVIDIA
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=948 MIT Mobility Forum
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1031 GM BrightDrop
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1072 GM Cruise
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1446 Uber Nuro
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1589 Lucid Nikola
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1648 Tesla AI Day
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 282 /PodCast 282w/ Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Aug. 31, “Is there really a battle over building and maintaining roads? “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena on the history and outlook on episode 282 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus… the Saudi linear city plan, GM, #Tesla, Baidu, Waymo and more.”
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=106 Michael Sena ..battle over roads
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=2004 Michael Sena Saudi linear city plans
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=2456 Aluminum makes cars…China makes aluminum
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=2759 Teslas banned from Chinese Communist Party retreat
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=2951 GM’s mandator OnStar option
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=3333 Gatik partners with Pitney Bowes
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=3416 Waymo reported seeks to withhold trip level data in SF
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=3538 GM president on autonomous vehicle strategy
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=3619 Baidu says automous EV rides in China have surpassed one million
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast281 /PodCast 281
F. Fishkin, Aug. 28, “A new step for Tesla FSD with Beta 10 69 release and the company’s “Occupancy Network”. Princeton’s faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering, Alain Kornhauser, weighs in on that plus oversized EVs, Toyota’s view of autonomous mobility, Pittsburgh’s Guaranteed Basic Mobility Program and some excitement surround SpaceX and NASA and more.”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 280 /PodCast 280 w/Cade Metz, NY Times
F. Fishkin, Aug . 22, “How can Tesla data help with the understanding of car crashes? NY Times reporter & author Cade Metz joins Alain and Fred to explore the latest Tesla news, including the new higher price for FSD. Plus NHTSA reports a continuing rise in traffic deaths, Lyft in Vegas, Cruise and Waymo. And Princeton and NBA great Brian Taylor joins us to remember legendary basketball coach Pete Carril.”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 279 / PodCast 279 w/Scott Painter, CEO Autonomy
F. Fishkin, Aug . 11, “After announcing it will spend 1.2 billion dollars on EVs and rapidly expand its vehicle subscription service, what does the future hold for Autonomy. Serial entrepreneur & CEO Scott Painter joins us for episode 279 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Tesla, Argo AI and more …”
Timeining Index:
@t=47 Autonomy CEO Scott Painter
@t=2635 Anti-Tesla ad campaign
@t=2657 Pittsburgh Post Gazette
@t=2967 Congressional push for AV legislation
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 278 / PodCast 278 Tesla 2022 shareholder’s meeting
F. Fishkin, Aug . 7, “Elon Musk talked about his vision for Tesla robo-taxis and more during his Q&A following the 2022 shareholders’ meeting. Weighing in on that and more is Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser on episode 278 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus TuSimple, GM Cruise, Lucid, Argo and more.”
Timeining Index:
@ t=55 Musk vision for autonomous taxis
@ t=728 When and where first robo-taxis will be deployed.
@ t=1177 What about the role of Musk’s Boring Company?
@ t=1530 Musk responds to Autopilot suggestion
@ t=1941 Alain on automatic emergency braking
@ t=2230 California acts against Tesla for using terms Full Self Driving and AutoPilot
@ t=2357 TuSimple blames human error for crash
@ t=2456 Barron’s reports When the Lawyers Come for Autonomous Vehicles
@ t=2552 GM President talks safety
@ t=3071 Alex Roy talks elevators!
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 277/ PodCast 277 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, July 30, “A look at cities & mobility, turmoil at VW, the cash problem at Cruise & more. “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena joins Alain Kornhauser & Fred Fishkin for another spirited discussion on episode 277 of Smart Driving Cars.”
SmartDrivingCarsZoomCast Episode 276/ PodCast 276 w/R. Mudge, President, Compass Transportation
F. Fishkin, July 25, “Following the TRB gathering in California, what was accomplished? Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge joins us for a look. Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, Baidu, Zoox & more. Smart Driving Cars episode 276 with Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.”
Link to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
Saturday, December 17, 2022
Once You See the Truth About Cars, You Can’t Unsee It
Guest Opinion: A. Ross & J. Livingston,Dec. 15, “ In American consumer lore, the automobile has always been a “freedom machine” and liberty lies on the open road. “Americans are a race of independent people” whose “ancestors came to this country for the sake of freedom and adventure,” the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce’s soon-to-be-president, Roy Chapin, declared in 1924. “The automobile satisfies these instincts.” During the Cold War, vehicles with baroque tail fins and oodles of surplus chrome rolled off the assembly line, with Native American names like Pontiac, Apache, Dakota, Cherokee, Thunderbird and Winnebago — the ultimate expressions of capitalist triumph and Manifest Destiny.
But for many low-income and minority Americans, automobiles have
been turbo-boosted engines of inequality, immobilizing their
owners with debt, increasing their exposure to hostile law
enforcement, and in general accelerating the forces that drive
apart haves and have-nots. …." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/opinion/car-ownership-inequality.html?campaign_id=0&emc=edit_cr_20221215&instance_id=0&nl=comments-notifications®i_id=139605010&segment_id=0&user_id=45874dd248641213e045c9ba82c52440)Hmmmm….. The fu! ndamentals of
our MOVES approach to the deployment is focused directly on
providing a high-quality affordable alternative to this
community. Moreover, [the comment that the NYT posted with the article](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/opinion/car-ownership-inequality.html?campaign_id=0&emc=edit_cr_20221215&instance_id=0&nl=comments-notifications®i_id=139605010&segment_id=0&user_id=45874dd248641213e045c9ba82c52440#commentsContainer&permid=122022082:122022082). Alain
Click or tap if you trust this link.">Sunday, December 11, 2022
T. Dodd, Dec. 8, “t’s true! I have been chosen as one of the members of the incredible dearMoon mission around the moon on SpaceX’s Starship rocket. To learn more about the mission and to meet the rest of the crew, visit - http://dearmoon.earth & https://dearmoon.earth/share_crew/tim… And hear more about the announcement from Yusaku Maezawa!!! - https://youtu.be/DKNSlL3Inn8… “ Watch more Hmmmm… So deserving! Tim has done so much to make rigorous “rocket science” understandable by non-rocket scientists while maintaining the rigor. For that substance he has been most justifiable awarded this special honor. Life is good! Tim, you most justifiably earned this incredible privilege. Full disclosure… I’m a long time subscriber to Everyday Astronaut. Alain
Click or tap if you trust this link.">Friday, December 2, 2022 [December 2022 Issue](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/The-Dispatcher_December_2022.pdf)
M. Sena, Nov. 28, ““In all of mankind’s history, there has never been more damage done than by people who ‘thought they were doing the right thing’.” So says Lucy after her friend Charlie Brown reveals that he has replaced her little brother Linus’s much nuzzled security blanket in the cartoon series Peanuts by Charles Schultz. This appeared in The Economist November 19th 2022 in an article that commemorated the 100th year of Charles Schultz’s birth. He died in 2000 after 50 years and 17,897 cartoons. That, my friends, is dedication. It pays to start early.
I’m not sure if Elon Musk actually thinks he is doing the right thing(s), or if he doesn’t really acknowledge the concept of right versus wrong. Some people honestly believe that whatever they do is right—at least for them. Leaving moral issues aside, such as how one as an employer treats fellow human beings who are employees, we can address the issue of whether he is creating or destroying value in companies in which people have given their time and efforts in exchange for a salary, or in which individuals or funds have invested their own or their customers’ money. So, once again the seemingly never-ending saga of the Musketeer continues on the pages of the. December issue of The Dispatcher
But it’s only one of the stories in the issue. Skip it if you don’t care about Musk and his companies. If you care about driverless cars, the first story should be of interest. If you want more info on what China is doing to the Western car industry, there is something in the issue for you. I hope you will all read Musings this month. Not everyone has built a car or written software, but everyone has walked on a sidewalk at some point in their lives. I take you on a sidewalk journey through time and ask you to think about whether you want to have sidewalks to walk on to get some place in the future, or whether you would prefer to have sidewalks that are paid attractions, like rides at an amusement park….” Read more Hmmmm…Continued excellence. Comments are @ ZoomCast 294 / PodCast294 . Alain
Click or tap if you trust this link.">Sunday, November 27, 2022 [Argo AI Folded After a Lifeline From Amazon Never Arrived: Report](https://www.thedrive.com/news/argo-ai-folded-after-a-lifeline-from-amazon-never-arrived-report)
P.Holderith, Nov. 22, “The dream of smoking a cigar with the windows up in your self-driving turbine-powered jet car may be on hold. At least, that’s what the demise of Argo AI, backed by monolithic automakers Ford and VW indicated. Before it all came crashing down though, Bloomberg reports Amazon nearly stepped in to keep the ball rolling.
The retail giant, which is rumored to be laying off thousands of employees, was allegedly interested in the technology for use in its Rivian-built delivery vans last year. However, a struggle to determine how Argo would be governed with three large investors as well as an alleged high cost of the autonomous driving company’s tech soured the deal. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, which hasn’t done anyone besides defense contractors any good.
Amazon was reportedly willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into the startup. Ford had already invested $1 billion in 2017, followed by an even bigger $2.6 billion pile of cash from Volkswagen. In fact, VW’s now-deposed CEO Herbert Diess even met with Jeff Bezos personally to discuss details of a potential deal. This was followed by prototype Argo vehicles running Amazon delivery routes, albeit without dispensing any packages.
Argo additionally hired 150 people to work on what seemed like a surefire investment from Amazon, but it was for naught. A governing deal couldn’t be struck, the global economy was in a further state of disrepair thanks to that Vlad guy over in Russia—what’s his last name again?—and inflation got more serious….” Read more Hmmmm… Reminiscent of what Larry Burns recalled in his book ”Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car―And How It Will Reshape Our World” about a failed “partnership” between Ford & Waymo that would have “reshaped our world”. Waymo (L), VW (W), Amazon (L), VW(L)… now what? Alain
Click or tap if you trust this link.">Saturday, November 19, 2022 [What Riding in a Self-Driving Tesla Tells Us About the Future of Autonomy](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/14/technology/tesla-self-driving-flaws.html)
C. Metz, Nov. 14, “Cade and Ian spent six hours riding in a self-driving car in Jacksonville, Fla., to report this story.
When we decided it was time for lunch, Chuck Cook tapped the digital display on the dashboard of his Tesla Model Y and told the car to drive us to the Bearded Pig, a barbecue joint on the other side of town.
“I don’t know how it’s gonna do. But I think it’s gonna do pretty good,” he said with the folksy, infectious enthusiasm he brought to nearly every moment of our daylong tour of Jacksonville, Fla., in a car that could drive itself.
The most telling moment came as the car drove us to lunch. After navigating heavy traffic on a four-lane road, taking an unexpected turn and quickly remapping its route to the restaurant, the car took a right turn onto a short street beside a small motel.
But watch as the Tesla struggles to make sense of its environment, veering from the road into a motel parking lot. Chuck is forced to retake control….
Tesla is constantly modifying the technology, working to fix its shortcomings. Since the day we drove around Jacksonville, the company has twice released new versions of the technology that show signs of improvement. But the moment in the motel parking lot showed why it may be a long time before cars can safely drive anywhere on their own….
Tesla is constantly modifying the technology, working to fix its shortcomings. Since the day we drove around Jacksonville, the company has twice released new versions of the technology that show signs of improvement. But the moment in the motel parking lot showed why it may be a long time before cars can safely drive anywhere on their own…
Mr. Cook had been posting online clips of his Tesla trying to navigate an unprotected left turn near his home in Jacksonville. …
Soon, Mr. Musk noticed the videos and vowed to solve what Tesla enthusiasts began calling “Chuck’s turn.” In the weeks that followed, Tesla equipped several test cars with a new version of its self-driving technology and sent them to Mr. Cook’s neighborhood, where they spent several weeks testing the new software and gathering data that could help improve it.
Mr. Cook and I spent a good chunk of our day asking his car to navigate the turn named after him. Each attempt was different from the last. Sometimes, the cars approached much faster from the left. Other times, from the right. Sometimes, the gap between the two was enormous. Other times, it was tiny.
Not long after that day in Jacksonville, Tesla released a new version of its software to Mr. Cook and other beta testers. When facing heavy traffic, it could navigate Chuck’s turn with a precision that was not possible in the past. So if it needed to stop next to the median, it would position itself so that traffic could safely pass both in front and behind. Chuck’s turn is just one scenario among the endless scenarios a Tesla might face on American roadways.
Chuck’s turn is just one scenario among the endless scenarios a Tesla might face on American roadways….
As the car approached the shadows beneath this mossy canopy, it suddenly changed course, turned sharply right and headed the wrong way down a one-way street: he moment highlighted the difference between Tesla’s self-driving technology and “robotaxi” services being developed by companies like Waymo, owned by the same parent company as Google, and Cruise, backed by General Motors. The robotaxi companies are trying to reduce these unexpected moments by tightly controlling where and how a car can drive. But these services will have strict limitations that make the task easier. The cars will travel only in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds. And company technicians will provide remote assistance to cars that inevitably find themselves in situations they cannot navigate on their own…. “Read more Hmmmm… This is exactly the basis for our MOVES-style approach to deployment. In the near term, this technology has a reasonable chance of being good enough if its calibrations (the released version) has been biased to work well in …” in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds” ,. It must also demonstrated that it does work well (zero disengagements) in a sufficient subset of the streets in those neighborhoods such that the driver/attendant is not needed to ensure safe operation. Substantially better mobility can then be delivered between many locations throughout those neighborhoods in most weather conditions than the mobility available today throughout those neighborhoods.
Unless Driverless is substantially better in delivering mobility to some in some places they will never be more that a fad or fashion statement. Unfortunately, that’s how Driverless has been positioned to date. “My car drives itself! A ride becomes a goofy selfie on TikTok/Instagram/Twitter… Look Mom, no hands!!! Good luck in any repeat customers or near-term RoI.
As we’ve been saying over and over, the substantial value proposition of driverless (or real FSD) is NOT safety (it can be “as safe” but, again, way too difficult for it to be substantially safer) and, in the near term, not a fashion statement or toy for the rich (way too expensive to create that). It certainly can’t be substantially better than one’s own personal car, although it can come close to being as good and maybe even arguably better to some.
The attributes that can make Driverless substantially better than all other forms of mobility is its capability to affordability deliver high-quality (auto-like demand-responsive non-circuitous, 24/7 availability in most weather conditions) mobility affordably while being safe, equitable and environmentally responsive (by facilitating casual ride-sharing when warranted as is done naturally when using elevators). Such a mobility service is offered by Kiosk2Kiosk elevator-like operation throughout the safest subset of interconnecting streets. We call these MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks.
Affordability is THE key differentiator. If you are rich enough to afford a car for yourself and have a driver’s license, then this system isn’t substantially better than what you have now. Neither is it if you can afford to pay and tip an Uber/Lyft gig worker or if your expense account pays for your taxi/limo or black car driver or if you have a chauffeur. Nor if you live in Manhattan or in the very center of a few of our largest cities. For everyone else (the too young, the too old, the too poor, the sufficiently poor that can’t afford a car for each driver in the family, then MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks can readily be transformative. Trenton NJ turns out to be one of these communities where 70% of households have access to one or fewer cars. Perth Amboy, NJ,. Cherry Hill, MD, Patterson, NJ, Scranton, PA are similar. My Mobility Disadvantage Index for places in New Jersey can be found here and for the rest of the US, here.
I am confident that Waymo, Cruise and Tesla could today, make their systems work safely in Trenton and many of the other Mobility Disadvantaged communities if they simply added to their training set the data from driving between the kiosks in, say Trenton, and generated a **.Trenton release of their **Driver to be used exclusively in Trenton to deliver substantially improved mobility to many. Alain
Click or tap if you trust this link.">Monday, November
14, 2022 [Gusciora leads big in Trenton; many council seats up in the air](https://newjerseyglobe.com/local/gusciora-leads-big-in-trenton-many-council-seats-up-in-the-air/)
J. Fox, Nov 9, “Trenton Mayor Reed Gusciora has a huge lead in his bid for a second term, putting him in a dominant position against two of his longtime foes, Council President Kathy McBride and Councilwoman Robin Vaughn, in the city’s nonpartisan election.
According to numbers from the Mercer County Clerk's office,
Gusciora currently has more than 70% of the vote...." Read more Hmmmm... Yea!! Now Trenton MOVES can
become a reality. Alain
Click or tap if you trust this link.">Sunday, November 6, 2022
A Deployment Framework for MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks
A. Kornhauser, Nov. 1, “So much has been happening lately on the AV scene. With all these recent changes in mind, it seems a good moment for me to reiterate the basic fundamentals of mobility and then to restate the context with which I see the potential value of AV technology. In the following presentation, I will identify some pertinent societal challenges where mobility might have an opportunity to substantially improve quality-of-life. Fundamental to this concept is the deployment of technology that disrupts consumer choice, thus allowing the marketplace to deliver both the economic return on the investment in the technology and to unleash the societal benefits of the improved quality-of-life.” Read more Hmmmm… View slides, listen to PodCast and/or watch a repeat of the presentation that I made at the 2022 UBC International Road Safety Symposium. Alain
Click ">Sunday, October 30, 2022
Ford, VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down
K. Korosec, Oct 26, “Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment, is shutting down — its parts being absorbed into its two main backers: Ford and VW, according to people familiar with the matter.
During an all-hands meeting Wednesday, Argo AI employees were
told that some people would receive offers from the two
automakers, according to multiple sources who asked to not be
named. It was unclear how many would be hired into Ford or VW
and which companies will get Argo's technology.
Employees were told they would receive a severance package
that includes insurance and two separate bonuses — an annual
award plus a transaction bonus upon the deal close with Ford
and VW. All Argo employees will receive these. For those who
are not retained by Ford or VW, they will additionally receive
termination and severance pay, including health insurance.
Several people told TechCrunch that it was a generous package
and that the founders of the company spoke directly to its
more than 2,000 employees..." ... Certainly a "class
act" way to shut down.
“…said Farley. “It’s mission-critical for Ford to develop great and differentiated L2+ and L3 applications that at the same time make transportation even safer.” Farley also insinuated that Ford would be able to buy AV tech down the line, instead of developing it in house. “We’re optimistic about a future for L4 ADAS, but profitable, fully autonomous vehicles at scale are a long way off and we won’t necessarily have to create that technology ourselves,” … Read more Hmmmm… What??? What is “L4 ADAS”??? You are really going to do L3 which many believe is harder than L4. L3 is going to require that Ford accept the safety liability and the “obey all the legal operation” liability for the life of the vehicle whenever the driver is able to engage that functionality. There is NO WAY Ford or really any OEM is ever going to take on that substantive amount of liability unless there is such an abundance of fine print that it makes Elon’s proclamations about FSD seem like junior varsity.
We all understand that “L2+” is today’s “50s-style chrome & fins” propelling the selling cars in showrooms as OEMs have always done. Absolutely no need to get to driverless (L4 in some societly or commercially viable ODD).
Idf someone does develop (as I quoted last week) Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: ”… [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”, it is going to simply make it available to allow Ford to continue to serve its customers or will use it to crush Ford? Alain
L. Sumagaysay, Oct. 27, “…”, Read more Hmmmm… Another view. Alain
Ford thinks driver assist is a safer bet than driverless cars, but it’s fooling itself
A. Hawkins, Oct. 27, “When Ford announced yesterday that it was pulling its support for Argo AI, the autonomous driving startup it had financed since 2017, it cited as one of its reasons a belief that driver-assist technology will have more near-term payoffs…..” Read more Hmmmm… I agree with Andrew, as I stated above. Alain
Click ">Sunday, October 23, 2022 [Waymo says it's bringing robotaxis to L.A.](https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-10-19/here-come-the-robotaxis-waymo-set-to-deploy-in-la)
Russ Mitchell, Oct 19, 2022 “The company, owned by Google parent Alphabet, said Wednesday that it plans to make L.A. its next market. “L.A. is in the top three ride-hailing markets in the United States and globally,” said Saswat Panigrahi, the company’s chief product officer. “The commercial opportunity is huge.”
But Waymo offered scant information about its plans, including when the commercial service will begin and how extensive the service’s coverage will be….” Read more Hmmmm… or what the service will be? Ride-hailing??? Compete with Uber/Lyft… good luck! After leading the “testing phase” for the last 13 years, this is their plan for the “deployment phase”. So disappointing! Doesn’t come close to meeting Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: ”… [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”. Alain
Click or t">Friday, October 14,
2022 [The Long Run to Autonomous Vehicles](https://viodi.com/2022/10/13/the-long-run-to-autonomous-vehicles/)
K. Pyle, Oct. 13, “Autonomous vehicles (AV) provide the opportunity to correct government transportation failures is how the Brookings Institution’s Clifford Winston characterized the potential opportunity provided by autonomous vehicles. Winston spoke to the possible economic impact of autonomous vehicles in an online media briefing (YouTube video) that also included speakers from Princeton and the Reason Foundation who touched on the technology and the role of public policy and regulation. A lively question and answer period followed the briefing….” Read more Hmmmm… Ken, thank you. Excellent. Alain
or tap">Saturday, October 08, 2022 [Tesla AI Day 2022](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ODSJsviD_SU)
Tesla Staff, Sept. 30, “Streamed live…“ Read more Hmmmm… I’m not much of a fan of humanoids so you may skip the first hour; however, starting @ 0:58:00 - FSD Intro, the next hour and a half is substantive and a must watch. My takeaway remains driverless “everywhere” is so enormously challenging that the near-term opportunity (next 10 years) to sell such a vehicle to a consumer is simply unthinkable. The terms & conditions would need to be so onerous making the total addressable market essentially null.
That said, I suspect that there exist some, possibly many, societally beneficial Operational Design Domains (ODD), where “FSD 69.2.2” or near term releases can deliver safe driverless mobility. This deployment strategy is what I with the technical support of CARTS, Inc. have decided to focus on. Alain
Click or t">Thursday, September 29,
2022 Batteries: Theme of
the Next Mad Max Dystoposeries
Sept 28, M. Sena, “IN THE PAST, when a country believed it was not receiving enough of a resource that it felt it needed and deserved, it went to war to take it. Gold, silver, tea, spices, cotton, cod, coal, grain, oil and many other commodities have been the causes of nations attempting to steal land and seas from other nations. There are countless numbers of movies that show us the horrors of war, but the postapocalyptical MAD MAX film series gives us a glimpse of what it could look like after all the big wars have been fought and lost. Warlords and their gangs prey on survivors of the wars that caused societies everywhere to collapse. They battle each other over gasoline, water and food. Are we trading wars over oil for wars over lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth metals, jumping from one frying pan into another? As governments continue with their policies to dramatically increase demand for these commodities, the chances for expanded conflicts increase. In many areas, they have already begun. …“ Read more Another excellent issue. Enjoy! Also watch or listen:ZoomCast 285 /PodCast 285 Alain
Thursday, September 22, 2022
Thor for Autonomous Vehicles, Robotics, Medical Instruments and More
J. Huang, Sept 20, “…In today’s vehicles, active safety, parking, driver monitoring, camera mirrors, cluster and infotainment are driven by different computers. In the future, they’ll be delivered by software that improves over time, running on a centralized computer, Huang said.
To power this, Huang introduced DRIVE Thor, which combines the
transformer engine of Hopper, the GPU of Ada, and the amazing
CPU of Grace.
The new Thor superchip delivers 2,000 teraflops of
performance, replacing Atlan on the DRIVE roadmap, and
providing a seamless transition from DRIVE Orin, which has 254
TOPS of performance and is currently in production
vehicles..." [Read more](https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2022/09/20/keynote-gtc-nvidia-ceo/) Hmmmm... [Watch Jenmsen's keynote @ 2022 GTC](https://youtu.be/PWcNlRI00jo).
Watch: [Nvidia Explains Self-Driving Car Vision at GTC 2022](https://youtu.be/LjoxHaDCusY). [See how the XPeng G9 utilized nVIDIA](https://youtu.be/eZ9T0G2DqhE?t=1082). [Watch the G9's version of "FSD" called X](https://youtu.be/eZ9T0G2DqhE?t=807) Alain
tap ">Saturday September 10, 2022 [Self-Driving Tech Company Floats Possible Sale to Apple or Microsoft](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/self-driving-ceo-floats-possible-sale-to-apple-or-microsoft?leadSource=uverify%20wall)
D. Welch, Aug. 30, “Aurora Innovation Inc.’s chief executive officer recently laid out a range of options for the self-driving company to respond to worsening market conditions and partners pushing out timelines, including a possible sale to Apple Inc. or Microsoft Corp., according to a document seen by Bloomberg.
Chris Urmson, who co-founded Aurora after running Google's
self-driving car project, also outlined cost cuts and floated
measures including taking the company private, spinning off or
selling assets and pursuing a small capital raise in a memo
labeled "board discussion pre-read" and dated Aug. 3. Urmson
inadvertently sent this to staff and asked them on Aug. 9 not
to open it, the document shows. ..." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-02/self-driving-ceo-floats-possible-sale-to-apple-or-microsoft?leadSource=uverify%20wall) Hmmmm... Realistic
but not good news. With revenue at zero all of these
companies are struggling. The annual addressable market of
new class 8 trucks in the US is about 275,000 units. Given
the large number of competitors addressing a limited market
that has yet to yield any revenue for any of them suggests
that this is a really tough business, especially if first
revenue remains a year or more in the future.
What may be even more daunting is competition from a TeslaSemi with “FSD.Class8”, not to mention the Waymo Via initiative. They both can cross subsidize their driverless Class 8 initiatives with their driverless people movement investment.
I still contend that there is a substantial near-term revenue opportunity Advanced Professional Driver Assistance focused on improving Professional Driver workplace. OSHA should be mandating such technology. Aurora could be generating revenue from it today. CEOs of trucking companies could be paying for it today and pocketing extremely attractive RoIs. Professional Drivers would be happier campers. So much so that the driver shortage might disappear. Alain
Click ">Thursday September 1, 2022 [Funding Roads: Pay for the Effect or Pay for the Cause](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/The-Dispatcher_September_2022.pdf)
M. Sena, Aug. 30, “The September 2022 Issue in Brief
Funding Roads: There was a time when the main problem with roads in the U.S. and Europe was that there were not enough of them to keep drivers from getting stuck in traffic. Then, environmentalism, NIMBYism, anti-feceralism and anybody-with-a-beefism put the breaks on all infrastructure. They shifted the debate to how to pay, rather than what do we need to stay competitive with the countries where the rulers decide what gets built where and how. Is there a way forward for democracies to have a functioning infrastructure, or must we look on with envy at countries where totalitarian governments build infrastructure like it’s the 1950s in the West?
Dispatch Central: A new city in the desert is an old idea - The de facto head of the Saudia Arabia government has designed a city with one stroke of the pencil. One very long stroke.
Aluminum: Another brick in the Wall of China – Governments required higher fuel efficiency. OEMs lowered car weights to comply. China cornered the market on the material that was needed to make it happen: aluminum. Sound familiar?
Some countries actually do something about Tesla – China
(again) seems to be the only country that can tell Tesla to
"Heel?", and Tesla heels. We don't wonder why this is so.
GM looking for money in all the wrong places – Making
something like OnStar a 'standard option' is like
telling parishoners they need to put money in the collection
basket in order to get into mass. ..." [Read more](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/The-Dispatcher_September_2022.pdf) Hmmmm... Another
fantastic issue. See [ZoomCast 282](https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c)/[PodCast 282](https://anchor.fm/smartdrivingcars/episodes/) for a discussion
of the content. Alain
or tap ">Sunday August 28, 2022 [Tesla Releases FSD Beta 10 69 With New Occupancy Network](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SZEQeQhCZqY)
Tesla Daily, Aug. 22, “ Looking at first impressions from Tesla’s release of FSD Beta 10.69…“ Read more Be sure to watch Ashok Elluswamy’s“Occupancy Networks” keynote presentation at CVPR on June 20, 2022. Very impressive, especially the use of training videos and it realization in FSD 10.69
Also pertinent are video demonstrations of:
-
FSDBeta v10.69 - HEAVY TRAFFIC - Unprotected Left Turns… Amazing that such turns are legal let alone FSD’s routing algorithm deicing that this is on the best way to go. Safety must not be part of its objective function C’mon Elon.
-
FSD Beta V 10.69 Initial Impressions. My impression is that 10.69 drove better than this tester who seemed intent on driving aggressively and not wanting to yield to pedestrians in crosswalks. Hopefully no one at Tesla pays attention to this guy.
-
Bullish News From Giga Berlin Tours, Production Rumors, Terrible Toyota
My takeaway from the above is that FSD 10.69 is impressive but not near “Full” anything, especially if put in the hands of some individual who themselves may well be a menace on the road.
While not being near “Full” anything, FSD may be nearing the point in which it is FSD within some useful Operational Design Domain.
It is one thing to be able to safely negotiate a trips segment: safely drive straight down a well marked lane in clear weather, safely make an unprotected left, safely stop behind a stop line at a stop sign, … Each is an important achievement.
It is a whole other challenge to be able to safely go from some origin to some destination thus delivering useful mobility to some person or some thing safely without any disengagements. The ensemble of these origin-destination pairs would define the ODD for FSD. To date that ODD has been essentially null. The challenge for subsequent releases of FSD may well be to begin to explicitly identify FSD’s ODD sand assess the extent to which these ODDs have emerged from the null state to begin to safely provide some useful mobility to the general public. Alain
Asking FSD to be “Full” everything, everywhere to everyone is simply a naive unachievable objective. To me a better question may well be in which Operational Design Domain is FSD indeed Full Self-Driving?
Once that ODD is determined, restrict FSD to operate ONLY in that ODD.
Tesla must accept the responsibility allowing FSD to be engaged ONLY when the car is operating in Operational Design Domain where Tesla has certified that FSD drives safely. Else, FSD safely pull over, stop disengage and turn the responsibility of continuing on to the human driver. It should be Tesla’s responsibility to allow FSD to be turned on and the determination of when and where it ceases to move because Tesla must be held responsible and liable if it something bad happens when it is driving. If I’m driving I’m responsible and liable. Not my passenger who may or may not be paying attention to what is going on. If FSD is driving it must accept that responsibility and not expect the passenger to help out. The word “Self” implies “Full”; else the product should be called Partnership-driving or Team-driving or ??? Alain
tap ">Monday August 22, 2022 [Can Tesla Data Help Us Understand Car Crashes?](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/18/business/tesla-crash-data.html)
C. Metz, Aug. 18, “Shortly before 2 p.m. on a clear July day in 2020, as Tracy Forth was driving near Tampa, Fla., her white Tesla Model S was hit from behind by another car in the left lane of Interstate 275.
It was the kind of accident that occurs thousands of times a
day on American highways. When the vehicles collided, Ms.
Forth's car slid into the median as the other one, a blue
Acura sport utility vehicle, spun across the highway and onto
the far shoulder.
After the collision, Ms. Forth told police officers that
Autopilot — a Tesla driver-assistance system that can steer,
brake and accelerate cars — had suddenly activated her brakes
for no apparent reason. She was unable to regain control,
according to the police report, before the Acura crashed into
the back of her car.
But her description is not the only record of the accident.
Tesla logged nearly every particular, down to the angle of the
steering wheel in the milliseconds before impact. Captured by
cameras and other sensors installed on the car, this data
provides a startlingly detailed account of what occurred,
including video from the front and the rear of Ms. Forth's
car.
It shows that 10 seconds before the accident, Autopilot was in
control as the Tesla traveled down the highway at 77 miles per
hour. Then she prompted Autopilot to change lanes..." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/18/business/tesla-crash-data.html)
We've been calling for an independent analysis of the Tesla
data for some time. Privacy is easy to protect. There is
no need to know who owns or was operating each Tesla. Also
see [ZoomCast 280](https://youtu.be/VYDu99pKNCc) Alain
or tap ">Saturday August 13, 2022 [Tesla, GM Score Biggest Share of $1.2 Billion EV Order From Startup Autonomy](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/tesla-gm-ford-evs-included-in-1-2-billion-order-from-startup)
D. Hall, Aug. 9, “Tesla, GM, Volkswagen and Ford are among the automakers set to get big orders from Autonomy, a startup offering drivers the option of subscribing to an electric vehicle instead of buying one outright.
Autonomy plans to announce Tuesday that it's ordering nearly
23,000 EVs from 17 different automakers for a total outlay of
$1.2 billion. With chip shortages limiting production capacity
at most automakers, it's unclear how soon such a fleet could
be amassed. The order represents 1.2% of the projected US
electric vehicle production through the end of next year... ." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-09/tesla-gm-ford-evs-included-in-1-2-billion-order-from-startup) Hmmmm...
While this is a very interesting play for an individual to
acquire a subscription to have a
"Drive-it-Yourself" (DiY) electric car that gives the
individual anywhere & anytime mobility. The
subscription is acquired using a simple anywhere &
anytime mobile phone app (the "autonomy" of the concept)
that bundles, insurance, maintenance, taxes, the vehicle,...
Essentially everything except the electricity. Just DiY it
and get from where you are to where you want to go when you
want to "Just do It" (JdI). All at an attractive monthly
subscription charge when you consider all that is bundled.
This is DiY/MaaSS (Mobility as a SubscriptionService) for
those that can DiY.
See the Bloomberg Video and well as SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 279 / PodCast 279w/Scott Painter, CEO Autonomy
I can readily envision the extension of Autonomy’s DiY/MaaSS to MOVES/MaaS where “MOVESMobility, Inc.” places a $n.m Billion RoboTaxi order with Tesla, (and/or GM, Toyota, VW, Benteler, Zoox, Baidu, Alibaba, AutoX, …) to deploy safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility for all 24/7/350+ throughout Trenton, Perth Amboy, Patterson, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, Edison, New Brunswick, Scranton, Greenville, Newburg, Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island, .. and their environs’ Operational Design Domains (ODD). 😁 Alain
Click or">Saturday August 6, 2022 [Tesla's 2022 Shareholder Meeting with Elon Musk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_2BU8vqbos)
E. Musk, Aug. 4, .” Read more Hmmmm… Watch the Q & A portion starting about an hour in from the start. Watch especially the comments about his vision of the Tesla RoboTaxi (aka driverless cars, what I prefer to call autonomousTaxis or aTaxis, the new “Modern Transit”). The key visions are:
@ t=6375 … the issue of how he sees these driverless vehicles being operated (deployed).
While I don’t agree with the option of owning your own and renting it out “AirB&B -style where B&B = Mobility”. It is easier and more likely to begin by having a Professional entity managing a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis that provide mobility to the everyone in the community. This will be the the “Modern Public Transit”. An example being Trenton MOVES using a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis.
For these RoboTaxis to be attractive to a fleet operator, they will need to be styled differently than consumer versions that are sold to individuals. The RoboTaxi will need to be easy to get in and out and interface well with wheelchairs. They’ll need to accommodate ride-sharing (personTrips are the source of the revenue, not vehicle sales). They should have 4-wheel steering so they will never need to back up in stub-end operation. He has re imagined the pickup truck. Certainly, he can re-imagine a car focused on providing safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable high-quality mobility throughout a community.
At the end of addressing the future of Robotasis he states …“ assuming we do all these things, I think, probably, Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.”
@ t=7057 Elon is asked “when will Tesla launch the first pilot city for the RoboTaxi business?
Elon dodged the question by stating that he is focused on doing driverless everywhere, even in every imaginable simulation of the real world. Consequently, once achieved, it could be released everywhere al at once.
While a great vision, this is simply not realistic. He started selling Teslas in California, not throughout the whole country. He fully understands that one must crawl before one walks, before one runs.
As you might suspect, I have the ideal “California” for him to first deploy his RoboTaxis and its not California or Arizona. It is New Jersey: Trenton, NJ or Perth Amboy, NJ or Patterson, NJ or many other cities in New Jersey where the mobility offered by Tesla RoboTaxis would be life changing to many while becoming an interesting alternative to everyone else. DoJo can more readily regress the coefficients to deliver safe driverless operation within any one of these Operational Design Domains (ODD) rather than trying to do them all simultaneously. Coefficients can/should be tied to ODDs rather than having one “magical” set that works in all ODDs. It is trivial for the Operating system to load the coefficients that work best in theRoboTaxi’s current ODD. This should allow RoboTaxis to demonstrate their technical, economic and societal virtues much sooner in these communities. Market success will fuel expansion and replication in the delivery of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility so that is spreads beyond New Jersey to California and beyond just like the purchase of the first Teslas spread from California to New Jersey and beyond.
@ t=7417 Elon is asked about the Boring Company.
True, if one could bore tunnels inexpensively, it would be great for longer distance travel. Certainly, all of the freeways in and around cities would be placed underground. High Speed rail on the NorthEast Corridor can only go underground for long stretches. Bringing the Dinky to a Nassau Street terminus must be done underground. By the way Washington Road should be underground eradicating the cancer that it is as a surface street severing the Princeton Campus. Then there is Rt. 29 that devastated Trenton by barricading the western part of Trenton from the Delaware River and Rt. 129 that severed neighborhoods; a scenario that was repeated in essentially every city to accommodate through-moving surface travel. They should all go underground. There is much good that could be done. The challenge is the above if.
@ t=6665 “when disengaging autoPilot with the wheel, the accelerator stays on. Please fix it!”
Maybe… touching or not touching the steering wheel has little in common with acceleration (and braking) which is (are) controlled by the feet. The steering control should be readily overcome by input of a torque on the steering wheel; however, the steering control should revert to dominance if the driver ceases to exhort a torque on the wheel. Moreover, torquing the steering wheel should not disengage the brake or the throttle.
With respect to the driver actions on the brake and throttle:
Driver input from the throttle should have precedence over “intelligent cruise control (ICC)” input to the throttle and brake and should NOT turn off the system simply because the driver touched the accelerator pedal.
For the brake, it is a little different. Tapping the brake should turn off the acceleration function of the ICC. Acceleration should remain off until the driver explicitly re-engages it. Moreover, driver input to the brake, if less than what the ICC calls for, should always be dominated by the ICC’s desire to brake. Tapping of the brakes should not turn off the braking function of the ICC. That intelligent brakig function should continue to keep m fro getting to close to the vehicle in front of me. The acceleration function has been turned off so I won’t accelerate into the back of the car ahead of me and the braking function should continue to do its best to keep a proper separation between me and the vehicle ahead. Turning the whole system off placing me completely in control should require an explicit action by me that indicates I’m knowingly usurping responsibility.
I believe ICC should be on all the time. Driver sets the speed and separation (or it is done automatically relative to the speed limit, weather conditions and road curvatures). Driver can choose to override the throttle and override the braking at any time; however, in the absence of overrides, the ICC is in charge. Alain
tap ">Saturday July 30, 2022 [GM's Cruise robotaxi unit drives deeper into the red](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gms-cruise-robotaxi-unit-drives-deeper-into-red-2022-07-26/)
Reuters, July 26, “General Motors Co (GM.N) has lost nearly $5 billion since 2018 trying to build a robotaxi business in San Francisco, and now as the automaker’s Cruise unit starts charging for rides, the losses are accelerating.
GM said on Tuesday it lost $500 million on Cruise during the
second quarter - more than $5 million a day - as it began
charging for rides in a limited area of San Francisco. ... that may be the
case for the last quarter, but the chart below from [GM's 6/30/222 10-Q](https://www.dropbox.com/s/igs6ymicy8l10bi/Links2PodCast_55-275.pdf?dl=0) Shows
($800M) for the last 6 months or $4.38/day when divided by
182.625 Whew!😅...
Cruise's costly effort to transform autonomous driving
technology from a long-term research project to a
profit-spinning business comes as investors are backing away
from riskier bets on technology, and reassessing how soon
robot vehicles of any kind will be deployed in large scale on
public roads.
Shares of autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR.O), for example, are down 80% for the year to date. Shares of robo-trucking company TuSimple Holdings Inc (TSP.O) have lost more than 70% of their value. Some automakers, including Ford Motor Co (F.N), have scaled back investments in automated vehicle units, or taken on partners to share the costs….
Cruise’s losses for the first six months of the year deepened to $900 million from $600 million during the same period in 2021 - when Cruise was not charging for rides. Higher compensation costs to keep staff on board after putting aside plans for an IPO were one factor in the results, GM executives said.
Chief Executive Mary Barra said on Tuesday she is still
bullish on Cruise, and reaffirmed a forecast that the unit
could generate $50 billion a year in revenue from automated
vehicle services and technology by 2030. ." [Read more](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gms-cruise-robotaxi-unit-drives-deeper-into-red-2022-07-26/) Hmmmm...
Nice optimism. The source of the reality check above comes
from [GM's 6/30/222 10-Q](https://www.dropbox.com/s/lwm8r1u7kgf1kxc/0001467858-22-000094%281%29.pdf?dl=0).
Start reading from page 41. then on page 43:
Whoa! The only nice thing that can be imagined is by assuming that they’ve had essentially zero revenue, the operating costs have “only” been $800M for the last 6 months. That is non-small.
I’d like to suggest that the strategy of trying to create a profitable driverless mobility service for folks that already have 2 or more cars in their garage, have excellent public transit service or travel on expense accounts when wanting to go to between the airport and “downtown” may not be the wisest way to launch such a mobility service. There is little opportunity to be substantially better or even equivalent to what those potential customers already have. Little opportunity to get loyal and repeat customers. The focus to date has been too heavily weighted on getting the technology to work for folks who already have more mobility options than they know what to do with. Great for click-bait; challenging for the 10-Q. What must Waymo’s 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
Capturing loyal and repeat customers is really tough when the competition is excellent and entrenched. While pricing can be high, volume is almost non-existent even with nominal pricing. Except for the novelty, the marketplace in the Chandlers and SFs is essentially non-existent. To date those markets have been quiet, at best. What must Waymo’s 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
It astonishes me that to date none of the leading driverless companies have spent any money trying to serve the needs of folks that don’t own cars, aren’t traveling using someone else’s money, nor have access to a good public transit system focused on their mobility needs.
These folks definitely can’t pay as much for a ride as those that are being chased by Cruise & Waymo, but there are more of them. Moreover, its almost trivial to provide them with a mobility option that is substantially better than what they have today for many, if not most, of their daily personTrips.
This is the market that we’ve found in New Jersey; in Trenton & Mercer County, Perth Amboy & Middlesex County and Patterson & Passaic County. We haven’t even begun looking in Newark, Camden, Atlantic City and the rest of New Jersey.
The excuse seems to have been that it would be too expensive to deal with NJ’s bad weather, even though, we’ve made it clear that New jersey is not interested in a 365.25 days/yr. mobility solution. We’d be more than pleased with a 350 days/yr. operation. New Jersey has more than 350 good days a year. We aren’t so entitled that we can’t wait for the hurricane to blow through, the snow to be shoveled or the fog to lift before we go about our normal business. We enjoy the “snow day” at home. We are convinced that is actually easier and cheaper to capture recurring and loyal NJ customers.
The rule-of-thumb for a Trenton-MOVES style operation is: a vehicle needs to serve at least 100 personTrips/day. With slightly better ride-sharing and time-of-day pricing, one might be able to get to 150 personTrips/day. To cover a fleet of 100 vehicles, ridership needs to be about 10k to 15k personTrips/day. This kind of utilization leads to per personTrip capitalization costs of less that $1/personTrip for vehicles costing upwards of $150k @ interest rates upward of 7.5%. That is to say, $1/personTrip readily covers the vehicle capital costs even at moderate scales.
Given that trips on-average are less than five miles, vehicle operating costs are less than $1/personTrip.
Management costs are largely fixed. With volume the per personTrip burden decrease enormously, and can’t be more than $0.50/personTrip.
Break-even fare is thus roughly $2.50/personTrip.
An average market fare of $3.50/personTrip delivers a profit of >$1.00/personTrip, >$100/vehicle-day.
A fleet of 100 vehicles delivers a profit >$10k/day, >$3.0M/yr. in the Trenton ODD serving 10k personTrips/day.
From where do these 10k personTrips/day materialize?
Essentially all the riders of NJ Transit rail would love a simple reliable convenient way to get to & from the train. By on-demand service within the community around the train station, loyalty upwards of 80% could be achieved for anyone wanting to go to NYC or within walking distance to any other NJ train station. For Trenton that represents a marketplace of 8,000 personTrips/day that currently drive to & from the station every day and those that currently don’t use the train that would if it was easy and reliable to them to get to AND from the station, when they wanted to get to and from there. Half of the 10k would easily come from serving the Trenton Train Station.
Trenton Central HS has 1,800 students. More than 1,500 live more than a 10 minute walk to the TCHS. Truancy is proportional to how far a student has to walk to school. Trenton MOVES could readily serve 1,250 of these students every day. That’s 1/4 of the needed 10k.
We only need another 2.5k personTrips and we haven’t even begun dealing with getting people to & from work in Trenton, doctors, shopping visiting friends, etc. needed by the 70% of Trenton households who have access to one or zero cars. 100 vehicles serving 10k personTrips/day making >3.0M/year @ an average fare of $3.50/personTrip is just the start of a profitable business. Employing 200 vehicles costing at most $100k at interest rates of less than 7.5% serving 150 personTrips/day at fares of $3.00/personTrip makes way more than $5M per year.
Expanding Trenton MOVES throughout Mercer County giving the opportunity to increase average fare (because of the longer personTrips) to maybe $5/personTrip keeping utilization @ 150 personTrips/vehicle-day of a fleet of 1,000 vehicles and doing a little better on interest rates and cap costs can lead to profits of >$10M/year for Trenton/Mercer MOVES. There are at least 10 replications of Trenton/Mercer MOVES that could be done in NJ by 2030 utilizing a fleet of at least 10,000 vehicles leading to a profit of >$100M/year.
This kind of success leads to having many more people leave their cars at home and frequenting NJ-MOVES as their mobility system. This could lead to a NJ-Moves fleet of >100,000 vehicles is generating a profit of >$1B.
If Mary expects this to be achieved by 2030 and replicated in the 50 other states (on average) as the Universe she expects to exist in 2030, I’m hopeful but skeptical. My point is, that starting with Trenton MOVES as the big bang that achieved her vision seems to me to be a lot clearer that where Cruise/Waymo have chosen to try to create a Big Bang. Seems as if she and Kyle should be taking Trenton and New Jersey much more seriously. Please call me! Alain
tap ">Monday July 25, 2022 [Baidu unveils autonomous vehicle without steering wheel](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-unveils-autonomous-vehicle-without-steering-wheel-2022-07-21/)
Reuters, July 16, “China’s search engine giant Baidu Inc on Thursday unveiled its new autonomous vehicle (AV) with a detachable steering wheel, with plans to put it to use for its robotaxi service in China next year.
Cost per unit will drop to 250,000 yuan ($37,031.55)
for the new model, compared with 480,000 yuan for the previous
generation, Baidu said in a statement.
"This massive cost reduction will enable us to deploy tens of
thousands of AVs across China," Baidu's chief executive Robin
Li said at the Baidu World conference. "We are moving towards
a future where taking a robotaxi will be half the cost of
taking a taxi today." [Read more](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-unveils-autonomous-vehicle-without-steering-wheel-2022-07-21/) Hmmmm...
Really?? [See video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC5ItyrOeEk). Where do I buy 10
for immediate delivery to New Jersey with option to buy 100
more by EoY'22 and 1st inline to buy 1,000 more by EoY'23. [eMail me](mailto:alaink@princeton.edu)!!!
While the design is certainly not ideal for “Trenton MOVES” or “Perth Amboy MOVES” they would be good enough to get started with addressing the “Sociology Challenges” of MOVES-style deployments. And the price is right if this isn’t total click-bait. But… that is a really big if . 🙁 Alain
Click or t">Saturday July 16, 2022 [MAY MOBILITY CLOSES $111 MILLION SERIES C FUNDING, BEGINS PRELIMINARY DEVELOPMENT ON TOYOTA'S NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY PLATFORM](https://maymobility.com/may-mobility-closes-111-million-series-c-funding-begins-preliminary-development-on-toyotas-next-generation-mobility-platform/)
Press release, July 12,”May Mobility, a leader in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, today closed a $111 million Series C round of funding. Additionally, the company plans to continue to pursue its deployment programs using the Toyota Sienna Autono-MaaS vehicle platform while beginning development on another vehicle design centered around mobility, Toyota’s e-Palette, signaling the next potential milestone as it seeks new ways to bring equitable mobility solutions to the masses….” Read more Hmmmm… Hopefully this will enable May Mobility to take seriously Trenton MOVES and other MOVES-style deployment initiatives in New Jersey and beyond. Alain
tap ">Saturday July 9, 2022 [U.S. agency probing self-driving Cruise car crash in California](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-agency-probing-cruise-crash-california-2022-07-07/)
D.Shepardson, July 7, "The National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration has opened a special investigation into a
recent crash of a Cruise self-driving vehicle in California
that resulted in minor injuries, the agency said on Thursday.
The auto safety agency did not identify the specific crash,
but a Cruise vehicle operating in driverless autonomous mode
was involved in a crash involving minor injuries on June 3 in
San Francisco, according to a [report filed](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/file/cruise_060322-pdf) with the
California Department of Motor Vehicles. ... " [Read more](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/The-Dispatcher_July_2022.pdf) Hmmmm... The
police report indicates that the Cruise vehicle stopped
while making a protected left turn, yielding to avoid being
T-boned by a speeding Prius that might run its red. Instead
the Prius changed to its left turn lane and broadsided the
Cruise vehicle. I can't wait to see the Cruise 360 video of
that crash. Hopefully the Prius' insurance company will
reimburse the Federal Government for its expenses incurred
in its special investigation of the crash that it caused.
Alain
or tap">Saturday June 11, 2022 THE
DISPATCHER
Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit
June 24, M. Sena “THE DISPATCHER, July 2022
IN THIS ISSUE
Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit ...........
Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality
Mobility for Everyone
.......................................................2
Dispatch
Central................................................................9
Someone lit a fire under NHTSA
.......................................9
The Economist: Right analysis, wrong solution ..............12
Musings of a Dispatcher: Eyes on the Back Story...........15
The evolution of digital maps and ADAS
........................15
Digital Maps for the Vehicle – 1970-2022
......................24 ...
“ Read moreHmmmm… Another great edition and very well written summary of the 5th Summit. Alain
Click ">Saturday June 18, 2022 [NHTSA Releases Initial Data on Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/initial-data-release-advanced-vehicle-technologies)
June 15, Press release, “Today, as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage innovation, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration published the initial round of data it has collected through its Standing General Order issued last year and initial accompanying reports summarizing this data.
The SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems summary
report i[s available here](https://www.nhtsa.gov/document/summary-report-standing-general-order-adas-l2),
while the SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving systems summary
report [is available here](https://www.nhtsa.gov/document/summary-report-standing-general-order-ads).
Going forward, NHTSA will release data updates monthly..." [Read more](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/initial-data-release-advanced-vehicle-technologies)Hmmmm...
This is a good start; however, as NHTSA repeats many times,
this is just a start and there are many "data limitations".
The most severe may well be the possibility of substantial "[sampling bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sampling_bias)", the most
severe of which is that each OEM sourced the reported data
very differently. That makes the data between OEMs
incomparable.
Also un reported is any measure that would enable a “crash rate” for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.
Finally, 392 crashes of “Level 2” cars were reported during the “10” month period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022. About 12 million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate in the US. Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be involved in more than one crash per yer, it means that each vehicle, on average is involved in 12M/283M = 0.0424 crashes per year. Thus, if these ADAS cars were involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year contained in these data would expect to be generated from a fleet of only about 11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042% of the vehicles (“everything being equal”, ADAS on all the time.).
Consequently, either, …
-
These system outrageously reduce crash probabilities, and/or
-
maybe some, but we’re probably not much luckier.
-
very few of the cars in use during that “10” month period had Level 2 capabilities, and/or
-
unfortunately, the VIN number doesn’t identify these cars and only Tesla announces how many sold (I may have missed the reportings)
-
very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the Level 2 features, and/or
-
likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of its level 2 features but does so only in aggregate terms that don’t allow for correction of sampling bias associated with engagement in “easy” driving conditions versus “challenging” driving conditions.
-
enormous under counting
-
likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either “know all” or sample effectively because of their OtA monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone else has conveniently kept their heads in the sand. Mercedes didn’t report any; however, during that period I think my Intelligent Cruise Control and Lane Centering were engaged when I hit a deer. Mercedes must not have been watching me, I didn’t report it and I didn’t get the memo that informed me to do anything.
Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers are not startling.
What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents. Maybe OtA should be mandated. At minimum, the VIN should specify the existence of theses capabilities. Then normal police reportings can begin to “automatically” access the “black box event recorders” (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA) that are in most cars today. Unfortunately, privacy concerns makes this not-easy. So here we are. It wont be easy to do much better, but we should continue to try.
What the data do point out is that a substantial number of the crashes involved the rear ending of a stationary object. I have pointed out repeatedly that the source code of these systems explicitly disregard stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this explicit process is that current sensors incur unacceptable false positives when trying to determine if sufficient headroom exists under detected stationary object in the lane ahead. Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are all assumed to be “pass under-able”.
As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects in the lane ahead. These are readily sensed and precisely located ahead. Readily sensed are overpasses, signs, tree canopies, traffic lights, … all of which can usually be readily passed under. (As can vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode. These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower mode.)
But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe, most, if not all “Level 2” systems disregard that object and assume the car can pass underneath. So if you are in vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will disregard that object. Similarly, if the vehicle that you are following changes lanes forcing you to become a leader, any stationary object ahead will be disregarded. Alain
or tap">Saturday June 11, 2022 3
minute Promo: [https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4](https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4)
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
Dr. Steve Still’s Tribute to Heywood Patterson
S. Still, June 3, “… Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. “That’s what eh did all the time,” Deborah Patterson said. “That’s what the loved to do”. …“ Watch VideoHmmmm… A principal reason for “Trenton MOVES”-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson “loved to do” for the many. Alain
or tap">Saturday May 28, 2022 [The Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-Dispatcher_June_2022.pdf)
M. Sena, May 24, “New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month’s the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.
There is no Musings in this month's issue. Instead, I have put
my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see
the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from
the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric
vehicles.
Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are
welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I
have written or you just want to let me know that you got
something out of reading it. ..." Read more Hmmmm...
Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain
tap ">Sunday May 15, 2022 [From pricing carbon to fighting opioid abuse, ORFE showcased top senior projects](https://engineering.princeton.edu/news/2022/05/11/pricing-carbon-fighting-opioid-abuse-orfe-showcased-top-senior-projects)
A. Nathans, May 11, “When Serena Ren presented her senior thesis on using machine learning for art appraisals last month, she hoped to see her friend, Joyce Luo, present her thesis on fighting opioid addiction. But since all students in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering present their theses in parallel sessions, this was impossible.
But on May 4, Ren and Luo finally got to see each other's
presentations in a classroom in Sherrerd Hall, thanks to the
department's first-ever event in which selected students
present their thesis work to the whole department.... " [Read more](https://engineering.princeton.edu/news/2022/05/11/pricing-carbon-fighting-opioid-abuse-orfe-showcased-top-senior-projects) Hmmmm... I'm so
proud! Hopefully we'll be able to release the video so you
can enjoy. Keep trying the link:
Princeton ORFE Class of 2022 Senior Thesis Symposium “Best 8”
-
Isabelle Grosgogeat ”Impact of women and minority ownership on private equity”
-
Joyce Luo ”Equitable data-driven resource allocation to fight the opioid pandemic”
-
Caroline Noonan ”The impact of carbon price on power plant dispatch, production costs, and total emissions”
-
Hari Ramakrishnan ”Lighting up dark pools”
-
Serena Ren ”Automatic art appraisals”
-
Mitchell Stroebell ”A comparison of advanced player statistics for the NBA”
-
Jack Woll ”Pairs trading and volatility”
-
Andre Yin ”Equity trading strategies based on macroeconomic event analysis”
tap ">Saturday May 7, 2022 [PAVE VIRTUAL PANEL "AVS AND PUBLIC GOOD: TRENTON MOVES"](https://pavecampaign.org/event/avs-and-public-good-trenton-moves-2/)
PAVE, May 4, “Autonomous vehicle technologies offer incredible potential: they could make our highways safer, they could offer new mobility options for people who can’t drive, and they could help create a more equitable transportation system for those who are not well-served by our current system.
During the month of May, we are highlighting places where AVs
are in use — today — being deployed, tested, and used for
public good. We want to look at examples of the technology
being used to serve food deserts, to expand access to rural
communities, to offer new accessibility options, and more.
We are starting with the Trenton MOVES initiative, which is
the first large-scale urban transit system in America based
entirely on self-driving shuttles. The shuttles, which carry
four to eight passengers, serve traditionally underserved
Trenton neighborhoods, where 70% of households have limited
access to a single automobile, or no access at all. Our
panelists will detail the program, describing how it works,
the results it has achieved, and their vision for the
future......" [Read more](https://pavecampaign.org/event/avs-and-public-good-trenton-moves-2/) Hmmmm... Very nice. Be sure
to[watch video](https://youtu.be/KawGghbte4s) 😁 and see [ZoomCast 267](https://youtu.be/mJLwot_SfrI?t=1137) Alain
Click or tap ">Friday, April 30,
2022 [NJDOT Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program](https://allenovery.podbean.com/e/propel-njdot-commissioner-gutierrez-scaccetti-and-the-trenton-nj-moves-program/)
P. Keller, April 29, “New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton…..” Read more Hmmmm… Very nice.
H. Jin, April 6, “Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a “dedicated” self-driving taxi that will “look futuristic,” Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.
The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and
sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1
billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new
headquarters.
"Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to be
a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the
factory...." [Read more](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-open-texas-factory-critical-growth-ambitions-2022-04-07/)
Hmmmm… Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma’s house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.
Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn’t have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma’s house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to ”Massive Scale“ scale and Massive Profitability.
RoboTaxis’ evolution to ”Massive Scale“ is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn’t seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.
Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. ”Safe” is “safe”, but “high-quality” is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that’s where they’ve already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.
For those that don’t have their own car for whatever reason (can’t drive, don’t want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful. Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.
Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving “Massive Scale” then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;
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those that don’t already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.
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those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.
These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton’s 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton’s 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year’s 365.25.
They’ll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral! You’ll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, …..
That’s the natural road to ”Massive Scale” for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.
“Massive Scale” starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain
or tap">Thursday, March 31, 2022 [Taking our next step in the City by the Bay](https://blog.waymo.com/2022/03/taking-our-next-step-in-city-by-bay.html?m=1)
The Waymo Team, March 30, “This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we’ve begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of Waymo One riders we’ve been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives….” Read more Hmmmm… Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually delier “Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, HIgh-quality Mobility” that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.
Let’s look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers…
Trenton:
Population: 90,000.
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000
IntraTrenton: 150,000
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity:
VehicleTrips/Day: 50
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life =
$200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip
Electricity + maintenance + management + … = $0.57/PersonTrip
Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million
IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
Operational Productivity
VehicleTrips/Day: 60
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life =
200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43
Electricity + maintenance + management … = $0.57
Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00
Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000*$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year
90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M*3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value poposition could hae the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)
Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn’t be completely ignoring me. I guess I’m missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? 😎 Alain
Moving Forward with Trenton MOVES
K. Pyle, Feb. 9, “Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement…“ Read more Hmmmm… Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
Smart Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving
Feb. 11, “The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th.” Read more Hmmmm… Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain.
or ta">Friday, February 4, 2022 [Trenton MOVES](https://www.dropbox.com/s/kxyvrjqi1u351tj/TretonHS_Announcenet_Invitation.pdf?dl=0)
W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,”We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originallyannounced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.
The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to attend. ….” Read more Hmmmm… Another real milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the5thPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES’ mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. 😁 Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
609-258-4657 (o)
609-980-1427 (c)
This list is maintained by [Alain Kornhauser](mailto:alaink@princeton.edu) and hosted by the [Princeton University LISTSERV](http://lists.princeton.edu/).
This list is maintained by Alain Kornhauser and hosted by the Princeton University LISTSERV.