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SmartDrivingCar.com/11.12-GiveUp-032423
12h edition of the 11th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
[log in to unmask]"> ITU
2023 Future Networked Car Symposium:
Automated Driving Systems (ADS) for Consumers and Other Vehicles (Trucks, Delivery, Shuttles, Robotaxis, Etc.)
R. Lanctot, March 12, “ Full automation of the driving task appears tantalizingly close. Multiple use cases are emerging simultaneously,
revealing potential paths to market adoption and consumer acceptance. The evolution of these use cases will determine the future of ADS. This panel will review the emerging ADS applications – consumer vehicles, commercial vehicles, delivery vehicles,
shuttles, robotaxis – to better understand the challenges and opportunities associated with ADS technology and the state of development and market adoption.….”
Read
more Hmmmm….. After almost 15 years of substantive testing (the
Google effort started in 2009) and almost 20 years since
the first DARPA Challenge, we are still only ”… revealing potential paths to market adoption and consumer acceptance
…”???
Isn’t it about time that this teenager start delivering some tangible return to its “parents” and society. For what is supposed to be such a disruptive technology
it has yet to identify the market where it has
decisive cost or quality advantage over the existing firms. (over the existing solutions it is trying to replace.)
It might be as safe as good drivers
(It might be safer than bad drivers), but it has
no chance anytime soon to being disruptively safer. It is not disruptively more fun to drive. Just ride around with it, that’s a service, not a possession. It has no chance at being a consumer vehicle.
…
ADS has equally no chance at replacing commercial vehicle drivers. Helping professional drivers have an enhanced workplace? Yes! Removing them from their workplace? No!
Some special purposed deliveries in the middle of the night? Maybe.
Shuttles… at best a very small one-off niche with no opportunity to be disruptive.
Robotaxis designed and operated so as to serve rich ride-hailers and the chauffeured limousine market? Good luck! Service quality is
really important and price is essentially irrelevant (these folks are rich and/or are traveling on an expense account). It is a non-trivial challenge for Robotaxis to deliver service quality approaching that of Uber/Lyft/Limo; so at best, these
Robotaxis can only nip at the heels of Uber/Lyft/Limo, which itself is way less than 1% of the daily vehicle person-trips under 50 miles in length. Even if Robotaxis got’em all, there’s nowhere near enough to justify any continued investment here.
These conundrums are NOT what was discussed in this session.
Unfortunately, what was also not discussed or realized is that there does exist an enormous market for demand-responsive Robotaxi service that is affordable. 50%
of the people in the U.S. are not physically able to drive a car, or are not financially able to own one for themselves. They still need to get to work, to shops, to medical and rehab facilities, to school, to friends, to … and the fact that they cannot readily
and affordably affects their well-being and the health of the entire country. This is a huge market where a demand-responsive and affordable service is disruptive because it delivers mobility to those who need a ride but are not being served by any transport
alternatives which they can afford. THAT’S WHERE DRIVERLESS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE! Affordability is really important to those who are paying for their own travel and are non-rich. Thus, affordable, demand responsive Robotaxi service can readily be the best
consumer choice for that 50%.
The addressable market here is ~150M people over the age of 10, wishing to make ~ 500M personTrips a day in the USA that don’t have their own car waiting around
for them to drive it to take them where they want to go at
the drop of a hat. To offer them with on-demand affordable Robotaxis service that is almost as well (and maybe even better) as if they did have that personal car, would be very disruptive
to some, even many and eventually “all”. A well-managed (100 personTrips per day per Robotaxi, 20% profit margin) fleet of 5M Robotaxis could serve essentially all. Serving 1% would need 50,000. Serving a targeted opportunity representing the first 0.001%
would require 50. This panel made no mention of this use case. No mention of the business case.
Let’s continue this panel discussion at the
6th Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit in May 22->24. A major part of the Summit is devoted to this one topic: Delivering Mobility to the Non-mobile. We’re going to talk about the business
case, something that is sorely missing in public discussion so far. Alain
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SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 310
/
PodCast 310
F. Fishkin, March 24, “Where does autonomous mobility go from here? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore...plus Ford's EV losses, SMART grants
fail to fund autonomous mobility, Waymo, drones & more. 0:00 open
0:35 Princeton basketball
1:25 More thoughts in aftermath of ITU 2023 Future Networked Car .”Symposium. Where does autonomous mobility
go from here?
29:26 SMART grants from DOT fail to fund autonomous mobility
31:55 Ford’s EV losses
32:57 Ford updates on BlueOval City mega site in West Tennessee
34:46 Waymo takes on task of writing the safety case for Avs. Alain emphasizes that companies shouldn’t
compete on safety
39:25 The Street headline… Four reasons self driving cars, not drones, will deliver your packages.
******************
[log in to unmask]" align="left" hspace="12" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_5">Ford
Just Exposed Massive EV Losses – Tesla’s Dominance Unveiled
R. Maurer, March 23, ”
➤ Ford separates business units, revealing EV profitability for the first time ➤ Electrek reports on Tesla’s EV tax credit expectations ➤ Tesla begins offering extended
warranties ➤ New charging product”
Read more Hmmmm….. Wow! It is refreshing that Ford is exposing
the costs they are incurring to transition to EVs and not throwing in the towel as they did with Argo.ai when facing similar challenges. How bad must that have looked? It must not have been close. At least the EVs have upside revenue expectations and
are out-of-the box with the Mustang Mach-E and the
Lightning which look great!
The view at GM must be similar. But they’re leading with the Hummer
( how depressing is that?),
and only now transitioning the Camero. It may not be pretty for a while. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
Biden-Harris
Administration Funds Innovative Projects to Create Safer, More Equitable, Transportation Systems
Staff, March 21, “Today, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced the first round of grants totaling over $94 million for 59 projects across the country
through the new Strengthening Mobility and Revolutionizing Transportation (SMART) Grants Program. The competitive grant program, established by President Biden’s historic Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, provides State, local, and Tribal governments $500
million over five years to leverage technology to create safer, more equitable, efficient, and innovative transportation systems. …
The funding will support a diverse array of topics and communities: ….”
Read
more Hmmmm….. Congratulations to EVs “…
widespread adoption of electric vehicles …” and CVs “…
Connected vehicle projects in states including …”!
Amazing that no awards were made in the area of AVs. I guess that US DoT has concluded: AVs are insufficiently relevant “…
to leverage technology to create safer, more equitable, efficient, and innovative transportation systems …” . This is a loud and clear message as to where AV technology ranks in its potential to contribute to this most righteous
pursuit. No “Elite 8” for AVs. Wasn’t even invited to
the dance. Alain
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Waymo is taking on the task of writing a safety case for the entire AV industry
Andrew Hawkins, March 22, “Waymo published
a paper today outlining a safety case for autonomous vehicles that the company says should serve as a blueprint for the entire industry.
Waymo’s safety case would be “a formal way to explain how a company determines that an AV system is safe enough to be deployed on public roads without
a human driver, and it includes evidence to support that determination,” the company says in an accompanying blog post.
In other words, Waymo is presenting an argument for the safety of autonomous vehicles, along with evidence that it says backs up this argument. And the
company wants other AV companies — essentially, its competitors — to adopt a similar approach in order to prove to regulators that AVs can safely be deployed at a wide scale. And in doing so, Waymo hopes to improve the public’s perception of self-driving cars
— which surveys show has been waning over the years.
….”
Read more Hmmmm….. This is a most
worthwhile undertaking by Waymo. Read Waymo’s
recent paper .
Safety is a fundamental requirement for this industry. It is so necessary that the industry should be
cooperating and NOT competing on safety. The industry should be granted anti-trust immunity associated with achievement of safety and safety IP should be placed in the public domain. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
Four Reasons Self-Driving Cars, Not Drones, Will Deliver Your Packages
T. Lee, March 17, “ …But Bezos was also the same guy who
proclaimed a decade ago on 60 Minutes that remotely piloted drones from Amazon would deliver online orders to your home or office.
Ten years later, Amazon is nowhere close to making that happen. Over the same period, Musk has arguably done more than anyone to advance the idea that
self-driving cars, not weird little helicopters, will transport both passengers and goods to their ultimate destinations.
The stakes are huge. E-commerce sales, already booming before the global pandemic, have continued to soar since, along with demand for faster delivery
times. Last year, online sales for the first time crossed the $1 trillion mark, nearly double that of 2019, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau….
Here are four reasons why self-driving cars will triumph over drones in the race to dominate the last mile of e-commerce deliveries….
Read more Hmmmm….. Maybe???
But both technologies are stuck at zero so neither may emerge to replace the deliveryPerson or mailPerson anytime soon Alain
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The Great American Bus Crisis.
Andrew Hawkins, March 22, “A private bus route from my town in New Jersey to New York City was just cancelled because the pandemic has wiped out ridership.
But apparently the problem is much, much worse than just that one route.
Nearly half of private US bus companies have shut down since 2019, according to the American Bus
Association, …
That is very bad….”
Read more Hmmmm….. I agree. This
is very bad. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
MIT
Mobility Forum: Spring 2023
Fridays 12:00-13:00 Boston Time Open to the public
Registration: https://mit.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIoduytqDsiE9ZKHfZ9Mf1hHIzSCx-TxIEq
Hosted by Prof. Jinhua Zhao
***
[log in to unmask]">
Save the Date:
6th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
Monday Evening, May 22 -> Wednesday 5pm, May 24, 2023
***
[log in to unmask]">
TRB
Automated Transportation Symposium
***
Bridging
Transportation Researchers (BTR) Conference
Paper
Submission deadline: April 30
August. 9 & 10
On-line Conference
*******************************
Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts
https://www.cartsmobility.com/ provided
technical support
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 309
/
PodCast 309 w/ Michael Sena, ITU 2023
F. Fishkin, March 19, “Following
The Future Networked Car ITU Symposium, committee member and moderator Michael Sena joins Alain and Fred for episode 309 of Smart Driving Cars. And a National Disability Institute study on how autonomous mobility could help millions join the workforce.
Plus GM Cruise, Gatik and Krogers, Baidu and more.
0:00 open
0:53 Princeton sports!
1:40 ITU Symposium
4:35 Chat GPT
6:00 Missy Cummings at ITU
9:38 Safety systems not interconnected
13:45 ITU Symposium takeaways
30:40 UN regulations & autonomous vehicles Cruise and more
40:29 National Disability Institute report
45:11 Krogers and Gatik test autonomous trucks in Texas
54:30 Baidu reported offering driverless rides in Beijing
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
308 /
PodCast 308 On the road at Starbase @ Boca Chica, Texas
F. Fishkin, March 11, “In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser takes us to Boca Chica, Texas and pays a visit to Starbase, the SpaceX
Spaceport.”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
307 /
PodCast 307 w Jason Ditman, Chief Engineer GM
F. Fishkin, March 7, “GM says Ultra Cruise will arrive with the 2024 Cadillac Celestiq and will ultimately enable hands free driving in 95 percent of
driving situations. Ultra Cruise chief engineer Jason Ditman joins Alain and Fred for episode 307 of Smart Driving Cars. He tackles the tough questions and issues. Plus Cruise Robotaxi unit cutting costs, NHTSA probing Zoox self certification and Embark
winding down.
0:00
open
0:40
GM Ultra Cruise Chief Engineer Jason Ditman introduction
1:55
How did development go during Covid?
4:32
Announcement that Ultra Cruise will first arrive on 2024 Cadillac Celestiq
8:45
Alain comments on Super Cruise
9:50 How does Ultra Cruise availability figure into route planning
13:40
Why is hands off is important and not feet off
16:45 If using intelligent cruise control…why does it disengage when brakes are tapped?
25:29
System is separate from automated emergency braking…how do they talk to each other
28:43
Response to Missy Cummings headlines that people using automated systems involved in crashes were speeding more often than people driving without automated systems engaged.
33:24
GM Cruise says focused on cutting costs this year according to Reuters
37:25
NHTSA opens probe, reportedly, into self certification of the test procedures at Zoox
41:08
Embark winding down operations, laying off most employees
44:41
Kudos to GM Ultra Cruise team
49:24
Here comes Alain’s spring break
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
306 /
PodCast 306
F. Fishkin, March 3, “Waymo passes a million miles with Waymo Driver and issues a safety report. Tesla addresses investors and the future, Ford creates Latitude AI and more. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host
Fred Fishkin for episode 306 of Smart Driving Cars.”
0:00
open
0:44
Waymo Driver performance report
14:15
More layoffs at Waymo
15:00
Tesla Investor Day-what we learned
16:18
Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley impressed with Tesla Investor Day
23:05
Ford creates Latitude AI after demise of Argo AI
29:40
Guidehouse Insights research report
34:35
Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association seeks modernization of vehicle exemption process
39:05
Diane Gutierrez Scaccetti to chair Transportation Research Board Executive Committee
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
305 /
PodCast 305 w/Michael Sena
"F. Fishkin, Feb. 27, ”
With shrinking populations and vacant office space, Michael Sena says the de-industrial revolution has begun. "The Dispatcher" publisher and consultant joins Alain Kornhauser & Fred Fishkin for episode 305 of
Smart Driving Cars. Plus...run flat tires, GM's Cruise Origin, Locomation, Tesla and more.
0:00
open
1:00
Is it time we admitted the world will change: the de-industrial revolution has begun
21:00
Impact on transportation, automakers
28:40
Run flat tires..from Michelin and more
35:25
GM’s waits for NHTSA okay for deployment of Cruise Origin autonomous mobility
46:00
Locomation denies reports of its demise
47:08
The Insider report on Tesla… and upcoming master plan. Alain’s comments not what were reported.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
304 /
PodCast 304 w/Missy Cummings, Prof. George Mason Univ
"F. Fishkin, Feb. 16 ”She was among the first female fighter pilots in the Navy, was recently a senior NHTSA safety advisor, and is a professor of engineering and
computer science. Missy Cummings is worried that ADAS technology is causing more people to speed. What to do? Dr. Cummings joins Alain and Fred to discuss. Plus the latest from Zoox, Tesla and more.
0:00
open
1:00
Missy Cumming pushing for limits on autonomous tech
9:30
hands free, feet free driving dangers
15:00
Should tech be used to block speeding and reckless driving?
32:00
Issues with intelligent cruise control
40:30
Is the battle for cars that would forbid speeding winnable?
44:00
Are vehicle safety systems not communicating with each other?
50:00
Is the problem with vehicles identifying stationary objects being addressed?
55:20
Zoox begins carrying passengers on public roads in vehicles without steering wheels
57:17
Rob Mauer’s Tesla Daily
58:30
Ken Pyle’s ViodiTV compiles autonomous round up from CES
59:25
Brad Templeton launches Robocars podcast
59:48
Alain will lead off MIT Mobility Forum series Friday
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
303 /
PodCast 303 w/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Reports
"F. Fishkin, Feb. 9, ” Ford's BlueCruise comes out on top in an evaluation of active driving assistance systems by Consumer
Reports. Manager of Vehicle Technology Kelly Funkhouser joins us for a look at what car makers are getting right and getting wrong. Plus.. Tesla, Mobileye, autonomous planes and more.
0:00
open
0:48
Active Driving Assistance Evaluation Report from Consumer Reports
2:53
Ford’s BlueCruise ousts GM as top in ADAS
10:33
What is the value of being able to drive hands free and pedal free
16:40
Why doesn’t the technology prevent speeding and misbehavior
21:08
Are consumers using the safety features..
27:14
Pro active braking assist coming to more vehicles and is a great feature
36:00
Should there be a light or mechanism that shows others whether cars are being controlled by human or automated system?
43:43
Are there things that carmakers are really getting right or really getting wrong?
51:00
Corvette on top in CR report on vehicle owner satisfaction
52:43
Navya
53:00
Axios reports autonomous passenger planes inching closer to takeoff
54:00
a fight against sludge…from NY Times
54:51
Mobileye post advocating simpler language for autonomy levels
56:47
Waymo named Super Bowl officials autonomous technology partner”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
302 /
PodCast 302 Autonomous chaos in San Francisco?...
"F. Fishkin, Feb. 3, ”
Robotaxi chaos in San Francisco? Tesla boosting production in China. Level 3 launch from Mercedes. Layoffs at Rivian. More SpaceX success! Join us for episode 302 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain
Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00
open
0:55
Autonomous chaos in San Francisco?”
6:28
National Safety Council marks anniversary of national roadway safety strategy
9:41
Tesla boosts production at Giga Shanghai & more
11:25
More SpaceX success
14:05
Mercedes launch of level 3 systems in U.S.
19:12
U.K. Unveils First ”Fully” Autonomous Bus Service
23:11
Layoffs at Rivian
24:35
Data Centers on Wheels: Emissions From Computing Onboard Autonomous Vehicles
27:47
Ford boosts production of Mustang Mach E touting 0-60 thrills in press release
30:54
Justice Department urged to look at leaders of TuSimple and alleged transfer of tech to Chinese start-up “
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
301 /
PodCast 301 w/Michael Sena, Editor
of The Dispatcher
"F. Fishkin, Jan.27, ” Driverless work vehicles advance while driverless passenger cars seem stalled. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Alain and Fred on episode
301 of Smart Driving Cars for that, plus Tesla rebounds, Ford's Blue Cruise impresses and more. “
0:00
open
1:00
Driverless Work Vehicles discussion
20:45
Stellantis Reaching for the Data Star
23:27
Winters can be cold, EVs like it hot
36:11
Tesla earnings, news and rebound
38:39
Layoffs hitting Waymo? And other tech companies too.
47:30
Ford’s Blue Cruise top rated by Consumer Reports in active driver assistance
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
300 /
PodCast 300
F. Fishkin, Jan.24, “ Episode 300 of Smart Driving Cars! Alain returns from Africa, Mobileye eyes robotaxis in Israel and beyond, Tesla demand rises after price cuts, Mercedes
talks level 3 and Toyota Boshoku shows future mobility for all. Tune in and subscribe!
0:00
open;
1:11
Alain on trip to Nairobi, Kenya and public transit there;
5:52
Mobileye looks to deploy robot taxis in Israel and Europe this year;
11:42
Forbes piece on map of places where autonomous vehicles are serving public;
13:30
Tesla price cuts spur demand;
17:45
Tesla staged video? Alain’s take;
20:52
Mercedes talks level 3 availability;
21:54
Interview with Richard Chung of Toyota Boshoku courtesy of Ken Pyle and Viodi.com;
32:00
Alain on podcast number 300!”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
299 /
PodCast299
F. Fishkin, Jan.12, “”Episode 299 of Smart Driving Cars rolls in with Buffalo advancing plans for autonomous shuttles, Tesla becoming the number one luxury car brand in
the U.S., concept self driving cars plus interviews from CES with Holon and Ottonomy. Join Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin for the ride. Thanks to Ken Pyle and Dr. Elizabeth Monroe
0:00
open
1:14
RFP for self driving shuttles in Buffalo
2:41
ZF unveils next gen shuttle
8:46
WSJ report on concept self driving cars
10:50
Tesla headlines top luxury brand in U.S. and more
17:56
CES Holon interview courtesy of Ken Pyle
31:30
Alain comments on Holon
32:30
Intro to CES Ottonomy interview
49:39
Alain comments on Ottonomy “
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
298 /
PodCast298 w/ Ken Pyle CES 2023 & Start of 2nd Decade of SDC eLetter
F. Fishkin, Jan. 8, “CES 2023 brought out crowds and innovation once again. The Smart Driving Cars team, with Alain Kornhauser, Ken Pyle and Dr. Elizabeth Monroe, caught
up with Halo.car, Stradvision, Zoox and more. With videos courtesy of Viodi, Alain joins Fred Fishkin for a look as the Smart Driving Cars newsletter begins its second decade.
0:00
open
1:04
Smart Driving Cars Newsletter enters second decade. Where we’ve been…where we are.
12:30
Mobileye at CES
14:29
Safety capabilities of vehicles aren’t being utilized
18:08
Caterpillar and John Deere impress
23:30
interview with Halo.car remote vehicle repositioning
41:30
discussion of Halo.car value
46:30
The Boring Company and a little history from Alain
55:30
Stradvision interview
1:04:00
Zoox Interview
1:15:00
Upcoming TRB conference”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
297
/
PodCast297
w/ Michael Sena, Creator of
The Dispatch
F. Fishkin, Dec. 30, “AI, driver monitoring systems and safety are on top in Michael Sena's latest issue of The Dispatcher. He joins Alain and Fred for that and much more
on Tesla, Elon Musk, Aurora, a look at the year that was and a look ahead. Smart Driving Cars episode 297.
0:00
open
1:00
ChatGPT and AI
6:00
Alain’s take on AI
20:00
Elon Musk, FSD and more
22:00
Aurora’s Urmson sees driverless shakeout but not his own
30:40
Bosch is not giving up on internal combustion engines
32:50
Senator Manchin wants to block EV tax credit cheating
40:17
China and the global car market
46:30
Consumer Reports delivers ADAS guidelines to automakers
48:00
At end of 2022 a look at the progress and a look ahead”
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 296 /
PodCast296 w/ Jeff Brandes, term-limited Florida State Senator & visionary of all 10 annual Florida Automated Vehicle Summits
F. Fishkin, Dec. 17, “The driving force behind Florida's 10th annual Automated Vehicle Summit, former State Senator Jeff Brandes, joins Alain and Fred for a dive into the
progress to date and what's to come. Plus Waymo, Uber Eats, TuSimple and more.
0:00
open
1:00
Jeff Brandes background
5:50
Is technology being used to provide some societal good
7:51
Highlights from 10th annual Florida Automated Vehicle Summit
24:24
Brandes on what is next for him
34:34
NY Times: Once You See the Truth About Cars
37:13
Waymo doing airport transportation in Phoenix
39:11
Uber Eats will use sidewalk deliver robots in Miami
40:30
TuSimple reportedly will lay off many in coming week
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
295 /
PodCast295 w/
Robert Hoevers, CE, Squad Mobility
F. Fishkin, Dec. 11, “Squad Mobility is bringing its solar powered mini vehicle, the Solar City Car to CES next month. CEO Robert Hoevers joins Alain and Fred on episode
295 to show and tell. Plus the upcoming Florida AV Summit, Tesla, the Everyday Astronaut and more.
0:00
open
1:00
Squad Mobility CEO Robert Hoevers
5:23
Deployment potential for Squad Mobility?
11:45
How adding autonomous capability can help
24:40
Florida AV Summit upcoming
29:30
The Everday Astronaut, Tim Dodd, is heading to space
32:10
LA Times on Tesla claiming FSD may be failure but not fraud
38:02
Radar coming to Teslas
38:58 Matt Lowne Steam Train Station animation
42:08
More on Henry Posner and trains assisting Ukrainians
42:43
TRB gets new executive director
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
294 /
PodCast294 w Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Dec. 2, " With The Dispatcher publisher, Michael Sena, joining Alain and Fred this is a meaty episode 294 of Smart Driving Cars. On the agenda: the driverless
car landscape shifts, China's car strategy, is AI really AI, can Tesla make it big in trucking and what is happening to sidewalks? And there's more...in this deep December discussion.
0:00
open
1:00
The Shifting Driverless Car Landscape
15:00
Autonomous mobility companies have gotten the deployment wrong
22:14
Automakers pausing paid advertising on Twitter. Michael’s perfect pizza explanation.
31:54
China Inc. Global Automobile Monopoly?
47:17
Cities have forgotten what sidewalks are for
58:43
A most intelligent discussion of Artificial Intelligence.
Is there even such a thing?
72:00 Tesla releases FSD update and delivers first Tesla Semis to Pepsi. Can Tesla be a major player in trucking?
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
293 /
PodCast293
F. Fishkin, Nov.. 27, " The reported Argo lifeline from Amazon that never arrived, The Ambarella/Continental deal, a safety report from Cruise, and Tesla opens up FSD and
moves to block cheating on attentiveness. Episode 293 of Smart Driving cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00
open
0:42
what happened to Alain
1:43
Argo AI’s lifeline from Amazon that never came
5:00
Ambarella/Continental Deal
12:14
Cruise Safety Report
13:00
Tesla opens up FSD
18:44
Cybertruck pre-orders top 1.5 million
19:47
HOLON
23:08
NY Times on AI Recipes
24:17
Mercedes to charge subscriptions for performance boost
27:00
Nuro layoffs
29:33
BrightDrop
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
292 /
PodCast292 w/Chuck Cook, FSD Betta Tester
F. Fishkin, Nov.. 18, " Chuck Cook, pilot and airline industry veteran, has been a prominent Tesla FSD Beta tester, well known inside and outside the company. Recently
featured in the NY Times, Chuck joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin on episode 292 of Smart Driving Cars for a look at where FSD is today.
0:00
open
1:00
Tesla FSD Beta tester Chuck Cook
29:05
Chuck Cook unprotected left turn FSD videos
39:00
Is Tesla using customers improperly to Beta test?
52:40
Motional and Lyft to launch fully driverless ride hailing in L.A.
53:37
Waymo shows new prototype vehicle without steering wheel
54:10
Cruise expands SF driverless service to daylight hours
56:34
Tesla’s data advantage.”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
290 /PodCast
290 A New Deployment Framework for Autonomous Vehicles
F. Fishkin, Nov.. 6, "On episode 290 of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser shares a presentation just delivered in Vancouver titled...A New Deployment Framework
for Autonomous Vehicles. Plus.. he chats with co-host Fred Fishkin about Waymo, Lyft, Aurora, Tesla and more.”
0:00
open
01:00
A New Deployment Framework for Autonomous Vehicles presentation
01:04:20
Waymo making passenger trips to Phoenix airport
01:06:30
Layoffs at Lyft
01:09:30
Aurora reaffirms enough cash until commercial deployment
01:10:30
New FSD Beta from Tesla
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 289 /PodCast
289 Argo
Shuts Down w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Oct. 27, "The demise of Argo.AI, the joint Ford-Volkswagen venture is a step forward for autonomous vehicles, not a step back. So says Princeton's Alain Kornhauser on episode
289 of Smart Driving Cars. Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin are joined by The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena for that plus #Tesla, Elon Musk and more."
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 288
/PodCast
288
So Disappointing!
F. Fishkin, Oct. 23, "Waymo is bringing Robotaxi service to L.A.. But Princeton's faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering is concerned the focus may not be in the right places.
Alan Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin zero in on Waymo, Lyft, Tesla and a test drive in the Ford F-150 Lightning on episode 288 of Smart Driving Cars. "
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
287 /PodCast
287 Special
Edition: The ABCs of Autonomous Vehicles: Technology, Economics and Policy
F. Fishkin, Oct. 12, "A special webinar edition of Smart Driving Cars: From the Reason Foundation , The Brookings Institution and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering,
welcome to the ABCs of Autonomous Vehicles: Technology, Economics and Policy. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser, Cliff Winston of Brookings and Marc Scribner of Reason and moderator Fred Fishkin.
"SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
286 /PodCast
286 Tesla
AI Day
F. Fishkin, Oct. 9, "The biggest take-away from Tesla's 2022 AI Day? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser says it's the massive compute power. Why? Join Alain and co-host Fred
Fishkin for episode 286 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Kodiak Robotics, Mobileye, Uber, Motional and an upcoming webinar on The Present and Future of Autonomous Vehicle Technology. "
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
285 /PodCast
285 w/Michael
Sena, Editor of the Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Sept 27, "Will the world be facing a Mad Max scenario for battery components as electric vehicles fill the roadways? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena has some advice for
decision makers on episode 285 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. And more on the EV tax credits, tire pollution, a tech solution to railroad crossing dangers and some hood ornament nostalgia. Or listen.. "
0:00
Intro
1:18
Battle over batteries
15:53
Electricity generation and electric vehicles
22:28
Tech to solve ungated railroad crossing dangers
26:11
Pollution from tires
32:23
Sean Connery’s Aston Martin
34:08
Some hood ornament history
40:00
South Korean wants half of all cars autonomous by 2035
43:22
Why don’t you have a self driving car yet? Brad Templeton writes in Forbes
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
284 /PodCast
284 w/Danny Shapiro, VP Automotive, nVIDIA
F. Fishkin, Sept 22, "What will NVIDIA's DRIVE Thor mean for companies looking to deliver autonomous mobility? VP of Automotive Danny Shapiro joins us for episode 284 of Smart Driving Cars.
Plus the Biden administration is funding Smart Transportation Technology, GM Cruise aims to develop chips for self driving and the NTSB pushes tech to combat impaired and reckless driving."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
283 /PodCast
283
F. Fishkin, Sept 11, "The strategy for survival at Aurora, new Detroit testing for Mobileye, NVIDIA's coming virtual developer conference and another AI upcoming for Tesla. Princeton's
Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin share the latest on those stories and more on episode 283 of Smart Driving Cars."
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI Open
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=80 Aurora
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=762 Mobileye
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=872 NVIDIA
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=948 MIT
Mobility Forum
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1031 GM
BrightDrop
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1072 GM
Cruise
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1446 Uber
Nuro
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1589 Lucid
Nikola
https://youtu.be/nBl1pD2BFcI?t=1648 Tesla
AI Day
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
282 /PodCast
282 w/
Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Aug. 31, "Is there really a battle over building and maintaining roads? "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena on the history and outlook on episode 282 of Smart Driving
Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus... the Saudi linear city plan, GM, #Tesla, Baidu, Waymo and more."
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=106
Michael Sena ..battle over roads
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=2004
Michael Sena Saudi linear city plans
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=2456
Aluminum makes cars…China makes aluminum
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=2759
Teslas banned from Chinese Communist Party retreat
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=2951
GM’s mandator OnStar option
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=3333
Gatik partners with Pitney Bowes
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=3416
Waymo reported seeks to withhold trip level data in SF
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=3538
GM president on autonomous vehicle strategy
https://youtu.be/F1qDhRqAA5c?t=3619
Baidu says autonomous EV rides in China have surpassed one million
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast281 /PodCast
281
F. Fishkin, Aug. 28, "A new step for Tesla FSD with Beta 10 69 release and the company's "Occupancy Network". Princeton's faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering, Alain Kornhauser,
weighs in on that plus oversized EVs, Toyota's view of autonomous mobility, Pittsburgh's Guaranteed Basic Mobility Program and some excitement surround SpaceX and NASA and more."
00:42 new
Tesla FSD Beta
15:37 Tesla
AI Day coming
19:07 Space
X Launch
21:06 NY
Times Essay on oversized EVs
24:18 California
to ban gasoline cars by 2035
25:43 Toyota
Research Institute says AVs not imminent
31:35 Tesla
acts against Dawn Project and O'Dowd
32:19 Pittsburgh
Guaranteed Basic Mobility 38:24 Waze
shutting carpooling service 41:09 NASA
readies Artemis
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
280 /PodCast
280 w/Cade
Metz, NY Times
F. Fishkin, Aug . 22, "How can Tesla data help with the understanding of car crashes? NY Times reporter & author Cade Metz joins Alain and Fred to explore the latest Tesla news, including
the new higher price for FSD. Plus NHTSA reports a continuing rise in traffic deaths, Lyft in Vegas, Cruise and Waymo. And Princeton and NBA great Brian Taylor joins us to remember legendary basketball coach Pete Carril."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
279 / PodCast
279 w/Scott
Painter, CEO Autonomy
F. Fishkin, Aug . 11, "After announcing it will spend 1.2 billion dollars on EVs and rapidly expand its vehicle subscription service, what does the future hold for Autonomy. Serial entrepreneur
& CEO Scott Painter joins us for episode 279 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Tesla, Argo AI and more ..."
@t=47 Autonomy
CEO Scott Painter
@t=2485 Tesla,
Ralph Nader
@t=2635 Anti-Tesla
ad campaign
@t=2657 Pittsburgh
Post Gazette
@t=2892 Argo
AI
@t=2967 Congressional
push for AV legislation
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
278 / PodCast
278 Tesla
2022 shareholder's meeting
F. Fishkin, Aug . 7, "Elon Musk talked about his vision for Tesla robo-taxis and more during his Q&A following the 2022 shareholders' meeting. Weighing in on that and more is Princeton's
Alain Kornhauser on episode 278 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus TuSimple, GM Cruise, Lucid, Argo and more."
@
t=55 Musk
vision for autonomous taxis
@
t=728 When
and where first robo-taxis will be deployed.
@
t=1177 What
about the role of Musk’s Boring Company?
@
t=1530 Musk
responds to Autopilot suggestion
@
t=1941 Alain
on automatic emergency braking
@
t=2230 California
acts against Tesla for using terms Full Self Driving and AutoPilot
@
t=2357 TuSimple
blames human error for crash
@
t=2456 Barron’s
reports When the Lawyers Come for Autonomous Vehicles
@
t=2552 GM
President talks safety
@t=2722 Losses
at Lucid
@
t=3071 Alex
Roy talks elevators!
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
277/ PodCast
277 w/Michael
Sena, Editor
of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, July 30, "A look at cities & mobility, turmoil at VW, the cash problem at Cruise & more. "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena joins Alain Kornhauser & Fred
Fishkin for another spirited discussion on episode 277 of Smart Driving Cars."
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
Episode 276/ PodCast
276 w/R.
Mudge, President, Compass Transportation
F. Fishkin, July 25, "Following the TRB gathering in California, what was accomplished? Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge joins us for a look.
Plus the latest on Tesla, Cruise, Baidu, Zoox & more. Smart Driving Cars episode 276 with Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin."
Link
to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
[log in to unmask]">
ITU 2023 Future Networked Car Symposium:
Session 2: Using Automotive Artificial Intelligence to Improve Vehicle Safety, Services and Transport Management
M. Sena, March 11., “ …During the next 3 h our panel of experts will discuss the topic of automated automotive artificial intelligence which is artificial intelligence
applied to vehicle safety services, and transport management. I guarantee you they will do a much better job than ChatGPT or I'll personally refund your attendance fees.
The generally accepted definition of artificial intelligence or AI is the application of computers and machines to mimic the problem-solving and decision
making capabilities of the human mind….”Read
more Hmmmm….. Must
watch video of session 2, Fantastic session, especially the very frank remarks by Prof. Missy Cummings. Also watch the other 3 sessions
linked here Alain
SpaceX
Continues Rapid Development of Starship Infrastructure - Starbase Weekly Update #53
LabPadre, March 12, “This week at Starbase Raptor installation begins on Booster 9, construction continues on Ships 28 and 30, Ship 26 is parked at the ring yard and the nosecone
test article is set to Massey's test site, while at Cape Canaveral SpaceX maintains a blinding pace of launch and recovery operations, ULA's first Vulcan rocket begins testing, and we review a new batch of flyover photos courtesy of Greg Scott….”
Read
more Hmmmm…..
Watch video. Excellent weekly update. Alain
Starbase
Live: 24/7 Starship & Super Heavy Development From SpaceX's Boca Chica Facility
MasaSpaceflight, Live, “Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable launch system which is being developed at Starbase in Cameron County, Texas. Starbase LIVE provides 24/7 coverage of the exciting
developments and testing progress….” Read
more Hmmmm…..
Watch LiveStream 24/7. Alain
GM Announces Ultra Cruise, Enabling True Hands-Free Driving Across 95 Percent of Driving Scenarios
Press release, March 6, “Today, General Motors unveiled Ultra Cruise, an all-new, advanced driver-assistance technology and significant next step in the company's journey to enable its goal of zero crashes, zero emissions
and zero congestion. Designed to ultimately enable hands-free driving in 95 percent of all driving scenarios, Ultra Cruise eventually can be used on every paved road in the U.S. and Canada.
Ultra Cruise will cover more than 2 million miles of roads at launch in the United States and Canada, with the capacity to grow up to more than 3.4 million miles. Customers will be able to travel truly hands free with Ultra Cruise across nearly every road including
city streets, subdivision streets and paved rural roads, in addition to highways.….
GM’s two hands-free advanced driver-assist systems will coexist in the company’s lineup with Super Cruise available on more mainstream vehicles and Ultra Cruise reserved for premium entries.
“The combination of Ultra Cruise for premium offerings and Super Cruise for lower-cost products will enable us to offer driver-assist technology across price points and segments,” said Parks....
Always pay attention while driving and when using Ultra Cruise and Super Cruise. Do not use a hand-held device.
…. ” Read
more Hmmmm….. Very interesting. High-end and includes LiDAR See
ZoomCast 307 /
PodCast 307 and Andrew Hawkins' "GM’s
Ultra Cruise will use radar, camera, and lidar to enable hands-free driving", below. Alain
First Million Rider-Only Miles: How the Waymo Driver is Improving Road Safety
The Waymo team, Feb 28, “Waymo has achieved many global industry firsts. Each time we delight our riders and deliver on our mission safely, we are proudest. In January, we accomplished another first: we exceeded one
million miles on public roads with no human behind the wheel. …
To provide a more in-depth look into the performance of the Waymo Driver and where it stands compared to human driving, we’ve published a research
paper that summarizes the contact events that we experienced during the first one million miles of our rider-only operations….
T. Victor, et al. “Safety
Performance of the Waymo Rider-Only Automated Driving System at One Million Miles”
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the safety performance of the Waymo Driver™, Waymo’s Automated Driving System (ADS). It analyzes one million miles of driving on public roads in parts of California and Arizona with no
human behind the wheel– what we call rider-only (RO) operations. There were no reported injuries, and only two collisions that were comparable to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Crash Investigation Sampling System (“CISS”), a nationally
representative collision database of collisions that were police reported and in which at least one vehicle was towed. There were an additional 18 minor-contact events that were too minor to meet the tow-away and police-report criteria for CISS, where nine
of these 20 contact events had no damage….
The first event that occurred had the
highest severity of the 20 contact events: … In this event, the Waymo vehicle was struck in the rear while slowing for a red light by a car driven by a teenage driver. Rearward facing video recorded by the ADS suggests the driver of the other vehicle
was looking at a cell phone held near the steering wheel immediately prior to the collision…. ”
Read more
Hmmmm….. The entire paper is worth a very careful read. Performance
during this first million miles is very impressive. While in the scope of things it is not very many miles, the first of anything is never very many and often it is when bad things happen. Look at
what happened to Uber in the beginning.
Enormous kudos to Waymo (and Cruise). They have, in my opinion, demonstrated that they can move people safely in an ODD. Hopefully, they’ll now look for an ODD
where they can safely provide mobility most of the time (NOT necessarily every day, but are confident that they can do it, say, 350 days a year) and certainly NOT everywhere in the ODD (instead find the safest set of streets and intersections that allows them
to deliver interconnected on-demand mobility requiring only a short walk (~less than 5 minutes) between most of the locations within that ODD/community). They then can build an affordable, equitable high=quality mobility system for the residents of that/those
ODD(s)
There are many such communities throughout the country, many of which are communities where auto ownership is low, transit service is, at best, poor and the mobility offered would substantially improve the quality
of life of many.
Waymo’s (or Cruise’s) provision of safe, affordable, on-demand mobility would be an enormous public service as well as providing a basis from which to scale to meet thire due diligence obligation to deliver substantial
return on investment to Alphabet (and GM). Alain
Seeking
NHTSA review of the Origin
R. Grant, Feb. 2022 “Cruise has taken a big step toward our vision of a safer, more sustainable and accessible transportation future. Together with General Motors, we have filed a petition seeking approval from
the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to build and put the Cruise Origin into commercial service.
The Cruise Origin is among the most innovative vehicles in history: a zero-emission, shared, electric vehicle that has been purposefully designed from the ground up to operate without a human driver. This means it
does not rely on certain human-centered features, like a steering wheel or a sun visor, to operate safely.
At Cruise and GM, safety is our mission. This petition both demonstrates how the Origin achieves safety objectives of existing standards, and helps enable future AV regulations. NHTSA has made clear in public testimony
and regulatory actions, that in order to consider the development of AV standards, they first need more information from real world AV operations. We believe this petition can help enable that outcome: learnings from the Origin, which is designed to improve
overall road safety, can help inform the creation of new, updated regulations and standards….”
Read
more Hmmmm…..Flashback! This was some of the best news that I had seen in a while when it came out last year, and here we are one year later, and it is STILL at the top of the heap.
It bears repeating: Someone who has been actually demonstrating the ability to safely move people on at least some city streets without a driver or attendant (there are only two in the US: Cruise & Waymo) is seriously proposing to manufacture what is actually
a driverless transit vehicle that can provide high-quality, demand- responsive mobility to a small group of people when those opportunities arise as well as serve the needs of the individual when necessary .
Think of the opportunity of the demand-responsive mobility that such vehicles can deliver to our communities, especially the mobility disadvantaged, for whom travel demand is non-stationary and so spatially and
temporally distributed that it requires a vehicle to respond to the demand for mobility in real time. Such demand, while served exceedingly well by those of us who can afford and have a license to drive a car, has little hope of being adequately served by
conventional vehicles that require the demand to respond to pre-set routes and schedules. The space-time combinatorial of the demand is orders of magnitude larger than the space-time combinatorial of the set of scheduled routes.
Thanks for coming with me on this trip down Memory Lane. What are GM Cruise/Origin up to these days? Just keep reading. Alain
GM’s
plan to deploy self-driving Cruise Origin on hold as feds weigh exemption request
J. LaRean, Updated Feb 25, “General Motors' mission to get 5,000 self-driving Cruise Origin vehicles in cities nationwide hangs on whether federal regulators will grant the automaker's request to exempt the vehicle from federal safety standards.
GM plans to start building the Origin at Factory Zero in Detroit/Hamtramck this year but needs approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to put the vehicles on the roads. The Origin is a small bus-like vehicle that will transport up to
six people without a driver. It operates through autonomous technology and has no manual steering controls or pedals.
General Motors' mission to get 5,000 self-driving Cruise Origin vehicles in cities nationwide hangs on whether federal regulators will grant the automaker's request to exempt the vehicle from federal safety standards.
GM plans to start building the Origin at Factory Zero in Detroit/Hamtramck this year but needs approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to put the vehicles on the roads. The Origin is a small bus-like vehicle that will transport up to
six people without a driver. It operates through autonomous technology and has no manual steering controls or pedals. "The Cruise Origin is on track to start production this year," said Aimee Ridella, GM spokeswoman. But she is careful to note, "pending
government approval."…” Read
more Hmmmm… OK, now to the present day: Wow! Given the advances that Cruise has made in demonstrating safe driverless operation in San Francisco, coupled with the enormity of the
opportunity that Cruise’s driverless stack can make when placed in a vehicle that is welcoming to shared ridership, there are many reasons to be optimistic about their potential impact in the driverless, share-ride space. Origin coupled with the Cruise driver
is an ideal vehicle for the provision of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality MOVES
-style mobility, especially throughout transportation disadvantaged communities.
Origin’s potential is so substantial that NHTSA in its public service role should be seeking to have GM build Origin rather than having GM petition NHTSA for permission. Yes, NHTSA is responsible for the
safety of vehicles, but they also have a public calling to provide mobility; else, the travel safety extremum can be most readily attained by having everyone and everything stay home and not travel. That’s absolutely silly! In this case, the mobility opportunity
is so enormous that NHTSA should work expeditiously with GM to grant this application. As with Nuro, we have an enormous mobility opportunity that conventionally driven vehicles simply can’t deliver; else, they would have done it many years ago. NHTSA’s mobility
responsibility should be demanding that it give Origin the waivers that it needs ASAP, so that society can begin to capture the unique mobility benefits that Origin has the opportunity to deliver. Each day of delay is a day that the improvement in the quality
of life of some individuals, especially some that have been very unfairly disadvantaged by the automobile revolution, is delayed. It is about time that NHTSA does something to improve mobility for those who have been left behind by that revolution. Why the
feet dragging here??? Alain
Alain
Carmakers
Are Pushing Autonomous Tech. This Engineer Wants Limits.
C. Metz, Feb. 15, Last fall, Missy Cummings sent a document to her colleagues at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that revealed a surprising trend: When people using advanced driver-assistance systems
die or are injured in a car crash, they are more likely to have been speeding than people driving cars on their own.
The two-page analysis of nearly 400 crashes involving systems like Tesla’s Autopilot and General Motors’ Super Cruise is far from conclusive. But it raises fresh questions about the technologies that have been installed
in hundreds of thousands of cars on U.S. roads. Dr. Cummings said the data indicated that drivers were becoming too confident in the systems’ abilities and that automakers and regulators should restrict when and how the technology was used.
People “are over-trusting the technology,” she said. “They are letting the cars speed. And they are getting into accidents that are seriously injuring them or killing them.”…”
Read
more Hmmmm…. Yup!! Discussion is in
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
304 /
PodCast 304 W/Missy Cummings
Active Driving Assistance Evaluation Report
Staff, January 2023, “…PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT
In line with Consumer Reports’ mission to create a fair, safe, and consumer-driven marketplace, this report has been written for the industry to provide more explanation and guidance on the state of Active Driving Assistance systems based on our recent evaluations.
CR’s evaluations focus on real-world driving experience, consumer survey data, and experts’ insights, keeping safety at the forefront.
Previous Testing and Reports We examine systems that assist with vehicle speed (Adaptive Cruise Control) and steering (Lane Centering Assist). Active Driving Assistance (ADA) is the combination of when Adaptive Cruise
Control (ACC) and Lane Centering Assistance (LCA) are active simultaneously. CR first began evaluating
Active Driving Assistance in 2018, testing four of these systems. The testing procedures and report influenced how other organizations, such as IIHS and Euro NCAP, would begin evaluating the same types of systems. Testing expanded to include
18 systems in 2020—one from each major automaker and one aftermarket device.
CR also works with other organizations to test ADAS systems, such as the MIT AVT (Advanced Vehicle Technology) consortium, where data has been collected in naturalistic studies from hundreds of thousands of miles of
real-world driving. Collaborative relationships with global testing organizations regarding specifics in metrics and scoring ensure that CR’s testing program is robust and aligned in terms of capabilities as well as driver safety…”
Read
more Hmmmm…. A really good report. Discussion is in .
Discussion is in SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
303 /
PodCast 303 W/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Reports
SF
Officials Describe Chaos From Cruise, Waymo Cars as They Try To Slow Their Rollout
K. Truong, Jan 30, “Firefighters were battling a major
house fire near the intersection of Hayes and Divisadero streets early in the morning of Jan. 22 when a Cruise vehicle with no safety driver started to creep its way into the emergency scene.
Two firefighters stood in front of the car to prevent the vehicle from driving over hoses used to douse the growing inferno, but that didn’t work. As the car continued
to inch forward, one firefighter took quick action and smashed the vehicle’s front window, finally bringing the car to a stop. First responders contacted Cruise, who sent workers to move the vehicle out of the way. …
That was just one of 92 unique incidents between May 29 and Dec. 31—mainly from Cruise—cited by San Francisco transit officials, who are strongly urging for tighter oversight
as “robotaxi” services look
to massively expand their operations…
Alain Kornhauser, … pinned the companies’ missteps on an effort to grab market share from Lyft and Uber rather than solving for transportation gaps.
“To me, the shame of these companies is that they have a solution, and they are still looking for a problem,” Kornhauser said. “The objective of this is not a selfie in
a self-driving car; it’s to provide mobility to folks who don’t have it and ultimately improve their quality of life.”…
Read
more Hmmmm…. Well said
😊 For a solution (driverless mobility) that could be doing so much good for so many who have so little
mobility that even “transit officials” would be sending them high praise ,they instead seem to be singularly focused on providing yet another alternative to those that already have too many great mobility options. Their hammer is simply focused on the wrong
nail and this is especially debilitating when the first nail is the wrong nail. The self-inflicted pain is so much greater when there is little, if anything, gained by hitting, let alone missing, the wrong nail. Alain
Despite
mounting opposition, the Bay Area’s robotaxis keep racking up the miles
A. Hawkins, Jan 31, “… .
Cruise
Cruise reported 2,783 paid passenger rides in its fully driverless vehicles — quadrupling the number of rides from the previous quarter. The company’s ridehailing vehicles traversed a total of 26,838.61 miles
during the quarter, which covered September to November 2022….
Waymo
Cruise’s main rival in the robotaxi space, Waymo, didn’t want to comment on the latest CPUC data, but there was still a lot of parse through.
As previously mentioned, Waymo’s Bay Area operations are split between paid rides in vehicles with safety drivers (aka “drivered rides”) and unpaid trips in driverless vehicles. Waymo has a list of pre-approved
members of the public called “Trusted Testers” who ride in these driverless (or “rider-only”) vehicles that sign non-disclosure agreements to test the company’s early technology. But the majority of its trips are in drivered vehicles….
Over three months, Waymo did 183 trips as part of its driverless pilot, ferried 441 passengers, and traversed 3,057 miles. Its drivered vehicles did 6,313 trips,…
Read
more Hmmmm…. These systems have barely closed the passenger door and have yet to leave the gate. They aren’t near
the runway. Takeoff is a distant vision. Andrew is being way too kind. Alain
Driverless Work Vehicles: On This Side of the Horizon
M. Sena Jan. 27, “ Land-based robots are already on wheels WHEN WE THINK of driverless vehicles, our mind’s eye tends to drift toward the horizon where we see ourselves at some point in the future
being chauffeured around by an artificially intelligent robot in the form of a passenger car. I think it’s time to direct our sights toward solutions which are much closer at hand: driverless work vehicles (DWVs). I believe this is where we should be focusing
our money and attention. The first image that pops into my head when I think of DWVs is a Zamboni,1 gliding around the Boston Garden ice hockey rink without a driver, smoothing the ice surface in between periods while organ music and the aromas of hot dogs
and beer filled the air. I’ve never seen a driverless Zamboni, but how difficult can it be to build one? I remember reading about super-large KOMATSU driverless dump trucks lumbering in and out of mines with no front or back to them. They’re alreadSmartDrivingCar.com/11.06-IntelligentCruiseControl-021023y
operating. …” Read
more Hmmmm... Another most well written and insightful newsletter focused on the work vehicle market… vehicles that contribute to the provision of
goods or services by moving around. Listen/watch our
Pod/ZoomCast
301 Alain
Riding
Nairobi's Craziest Matatu, Kenya
J. Billam, Feb. 11 ’22, “I show my wild experience riding Nairobi's Craziest
Matatu (local bus) bound for Rongai in Kenya's capital city… “
Watch more Hmmmm...
If we aren’t going to have
Moves-style Autonomous Transit Networks, then
Matatus may well be the answer to safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, and colorful mobility. Millions take them every day in Nairobi, Kenya. Amazing. J
Alain
All
Nairobi Matatu Routes at your fingertips!
“ Have you ever found yoursel in town with no idea how to get to a certain destination using Public Transport and you end up calling friends or asking strangers where a certain Matatu stage is?
You are not alone!! Thousands of Nairobians go through this daily!
So us cool peeps at MyRide Africa thought to bring this to an end so that you never get lost in Nairobi again! We have the all new Matatu Map on the App that can help you to find any route in
Nairobi in 3 easy steps…’’ Read
more Hmmmm... Just returned from a trip of a life time to Kenya. Absolutely fantastic experience Alain
S. Still, Jan. 10, Project Overview: University at Buffalo is issuing this Request for Proposals (RFP) to solicit proposals from qualified firms to provide self-driving shuttle vehicles and operations
in the Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus and surrounding neighborhoods. The project is funded by the US Department of Transportation as part of its ITS4US program.
Proposal Date/Time:
February 1, 2023 2:30pm EST. Proposals received after the specified time will not be accepted.
The Request for Proposals (RFP) documents are available now by registering through this link:
https://www.nyscr.ny.gov/adsOpen.cfm Questions can be addressed to David Markey, Senior Buyer, at
[log in to unmask]. ….”
Read
more Hmmmm... I love what Dr. Steve Still is trying to do in Buffalo. All the best. Alain
Hmmmm…. Happy New Year! Welcome to the inaugural issue of the 2nd decade of the SmartDrivingCars eLetter.
Much has remained the same:
There are still 3 distinctive markets for SmartDrivingCars:
[log in to unmask]" align="left" hspace="3" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_4">Since
the root cause of the vast majority of crashes is driver misbehavior, SafeDrivingCar systems would most effectively achieve public safety aspirations. Unfortunately, there has been essentially no advance in SafeDrivingCars since
NHTSA/FMVSS No. 126 Electronic Stability Control (ESC) rule enacted on
09/09/2011. By being silent on mandates, Washington has not made any substantive progress on road safety in more than a decade. We should all be demanding change!
There have been advances in warnings and turn-off-able systems that are largely
ineffective at addressing chronic misbehavior such as alcohol abuse, tailgating, texting and road rage. Notable outliers that have proven to be effective are
blind spot warnings and
rear automated emergency braking (RAEB). Luckily, both of these systems aren’t perceived by the buying public to be misaligned with the freedom associated with driving one’s own car. These systems are being desired by the
marketplace rather than needing to be mandated. Unfortunately, such market forces are not commensurate with speed governors, ignition locks, attention monitoring and texting prevention systems.
What may be even more dangerous is the evolution of visual entertainment systems such as
Continental’s “pillar2pillar” display. How can a driver pay attention to the road ahead when there is so much to see between the pillars that has nothing to do with driving safely? NHTSA/FMVSS should step in immediately
and permit the enabling of these systems only if speed governors, ignition locks, attention monitoring and texting monitoring systems are also engaged. Just look at
what has been happening since 2010 wrt highway safety. At some point, some OEMs will really focus on safety and create cars that are as dedicated to safety as this mother.
As we’ve expected from the beginning, this form of automation has been embraced by car makers because it is highly desired by car buyers, especially when the “feet-off”
and “hands-off” features are promoted without much mention of the “eyes&brain-on” requirement. These features, including
intelligent cruise control and automated lane centering, have
essentially become standard equipment. More advanced versions such as
Tesla’s FSD command $15k price tags that
are purchased in volume today and whose future inclusion in vehicles allows
MobilEye to tout $3.5B in booked revenue, Continental
to feature a partnership with Amberellla and
nVIDEA to make a major automotive announcement at CES 2023 to supply the continued OEM demand to provide such comfort & convenience capabilities to near and longer-term new car buyers.
[log in to unmask]" align="left" hspace="3" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_2">Deployment
of fleets of DriverlessCars to move people and/or goods from start to finish has had mixed results. In private settings such as farms, mines, ports and warehouses the capabilities of today’s driverless technology is substantively delivering value to OEMs
such as Caterpillar and John Deer.
Deployment in public spaces for public uses is at best slow and steady. One of the possible highlights, using remote drivers, is that of Halo.ai whose application is
only for the empty repositioning of vehicles in the shared-use car space. I was thoroughly impressed with their application of driverless technology to not move people or goods, but to simply assist in the management of cars to efficiently deliver a shared
car to a customer location and to reposition that asset to the next customer. The demands of the driverless system are substantially reduced because there is no one in the car when it is under remotely automated control and that repositioning can be done
on the safest road segments and largely at the safest times. Excellent!
I was also very impressed with the Holon vehicle for use in MOVES-style kiosk2kiosk Autonomous Transit Systems. The vehicle is appropriately accommodates shared rides
and the disabled community
With respect to moving people in
MOVES-style kiosk2kiosk shared-ride Autonomous Transit Systems, I was very impressed @ CES 2023 with
the appropriately sized Holon vehicle that is definitely oriented to provide kiosk2kiosk ride-sharing mobility and properly serve the physically disabled community . The smaller
GM/Cruise Origin may well be the leading US-made shared-ride-oriented MOVES-style driverless vehicle opportunity; however, I could not find them at CES. A very similar
Zoox vehicle was displayed @ CES 2023 and also looks very impressive as a MOVES-style shared-ride and wheel-chair friendly vehicle .
The purpose built Waymo vehicle seemed oriented to private ride-hailing and may not be US made. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to have a discussion with anyone @ the Waymo booth to gain any appreciation for Waymo’s deployment
strategy.
With respect to the movement of goods. There were some interesting “last 50-500 feet” sidewalk solutions such as
Ottonomy’s delivery robot.
Alain
Automotive
AI Is Making Both Cars and Drivers Better
M. Sena, Dec. 28, “ AUTOMOTIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AAI) is a term that has different meanings, depending upon who is using it. For some, it means completely removing the human from the driving task and turning over control of the vehicle
to software and sensors. For others, the goal of AAI is to supplement and improve the human driver's abilities in order to make driving safer, offer new and better services, and increase the effectiveness of transport management. The latter goal, improving
the driving experience, has proven achievable with AI that accomplishes one or a limited set of objectives. The former goal, removing the human from the driving task, has proven to be devilishly difficult because the car needs to drive at least as well as
a human.
AI that can approximate a human, that has the ability to understand and learn any intellectual task that a human can, is called Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It is also called ‘Strong AI’, with its six major branches: machine learning,
neural networks, robotics, expert systems, fuzzy logic and natural language processing. AI that has proven to be excellent at accomplishing one goal at a time, like playing chess, or interpretring spoken commands or answering questions like APPLE’s SIRI, is
called ‘Weak AI’. ….” Read
more Hmmmm….. If Elon can call FSD "FSD", then Michael can call
AI "AI". (Please at least read
The Turing Test). Both are names that enormously over-state their realities. FSD is not anywhere near Full anything and AI is nowhere near Intelligent. Both do a few cute things in very narrow circumstances and neither
can find their way out of a paper bag. Alain
Autonomous
Vehicles Reality Check Part 2: Moving People
R. Bishop, Dec. 22, “ Recent reporting/blogging about AV’s can be maddeningly confusing, because the days of saying anything meaningful about “AV’s” as a singular entity are long past. What’s going on depends on what kind of AV you’re talking
about. Writers and pundits can pontificate about “the trouble in AV City” if they want, but they must first explain what AV sector they’re referring to. To make sweeping statements is meaningless; the dynamics of the technical, operational, and business factors
are too diverse. Thus this three-part article series, my shot at describing the great breadth of today’s AV’s and providing color commentary.
A fundamental AV distinction regards what’s inside the vehicle: people or freight? This Part Two article focuses on moving people. Part Three will focus on moving goods.
Two Distinct Domains: Private or Commercial? ….”
Read
more Hmmmm….. Excellent, must read that among other things makes clear the distinction between what are largely orthogonal
markets: Private (selling a vehicle) and Commercial (selling a ride) .
What is missing, especially in the "selling a ride" coordinate is appreciation for the diversity of the "people" being moved. The spectrums spanning poor -> rich; young ->old; able-> dis-able;
conservative -> liberal; .... that reflect not only on when & where each of those individuals choose to go but also on their choice as which commercial AV deployment, they'll choose to make the trip that today isn't made or switch from the way they are going
today.
As we know from the movement of goods, one size doesn't fit all; one deployment doesn't fit all. Pick-ups do well for haulin' some of your own stuff, Class 8's for big valuable stuff. Then
there are flatbeds, tankers, cements, choo choos, boats, ... and so on for very specific stuff. It ends up really mattering what good it is when it comes to figuring out what and how to deploy something to best move it.
My point is the discussion about deployment along the private and especially the commercial domains has failed to recognize the diversity of the customer set and is failing to deploy near-term
capabilities to be better serve the mobility needs of individuals that would be best served by that deployment.
Moving people is a "big-dimensional" market characterized by foudomains: {P, A, B, t} where P = people; A = from location; B = to location; t = time.
Deployment must address not only the diversity of A, B and t but also that of P. In order for an AV deployment to capture a customer it needs to be the best for that customer when that customer
wishes to go from A to B at time t. That's the deployment challenge . The diversity of P is certainly as important as that of A, B and t. To date the deployment focus has been one-size to fit all that has fit very few in the deployed Operational Design
Domain. Alain
Once
You See the Truth About Cars, You Can’t Unsee It
Guest Opinion: A. Ross & J. Livingston,Dec. 15, “ In American consumer lore, the automobile has always been a “freedom machine” and liberty lies on the open road. “Americans are a race of independent people” whose “ancestors came to this
country for the sake of freedom and adventure,” the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce’s soon-to-be-president, Roy Chapin, declared in 1924. “The automobile satisfies these instincts.” During the Cold War, vehicles with baroque tail fins and oodles of
surplus chrome rolled off the assembly line, with Native American names like Pontiac, Apache, Dakota, Cherokee, Thunderbird and Winnebago — the ultimate expressions of capitalist triumph and Manifest Destiny.
But for many low-income and minority Americans, automobiles have been turbo-boosted engines of inequality, immobilizing their owners with debt, increasing their exposure to hostile law enforcement, and in general accelerating the forces
that drive apart haves and have-nots. ….” Read
more Hmmmm….. The fundamentals of our MOVES approach to the deployment is focused directly on providing a high-quality
affordable alternative to this community. Moreover,
the comment that the NYT posted with the article. Alain
I'm
going to the moon!!!... Literally!
T. Dodd, Dec. 8, “t's true! I have been chosen as one of the members of the incredible dearMoon mission around the moon on SpaceX's Starship rocket. To learn more about
the mission and to meet the rest of the crew, visit -
http://dearmoon.earth &
https://dearmoon.earth/share_crew/tim... And hear more about the announcement from Yusaku Maezawa!!! -
https://youtu.be/DKNSlL3Inn8... “ Watch
more Hmmmm... So deserving! Tim has done so much to make rigorous “rocket science” understandable by non-rocket scientists
while maintaining the rigor. For that substance he has been most justifiable awarded this special honor. Life is good! Tim, you most justifiably earned this incredible privilege. Full disclosure… I’m a long time subscriber to
Everyday Astronaut. Alain
M. Sena, Nov. 28, ““In all of mankind’s history, there has never been more damage done than by people who ‘thought they were doing the right thing’.” So says Lucy after her friend Charlie Brown reveals
that he has replaced her little brother Linus’s much nuzzled security blanket in the cartoon series
Peanuts by Charles Schultz. This appeared in The Economist November 19th 2022 in an article that commemorated the 100th year of Charles Schultz’s birth. He died in 2000 after 50 years and 17,897 cartoons. That, my friends,
is dedication. It pays to start early.
I’m not sure if Elon Musk actually thinks he is doing the right thing(s), or if he doesn’t really acknowledge the concept of right versus wrong. Some people honestly believe that whatever they do is right—at
least for them. Leaving moral issues aside, such as how one as an employer treats fellow human beings who are employees, we can address the issue of whether he is creating or destroying value in companies in which people have given their time and efforts in
exchange for a salary, or in which individuals or funds have invested their own or their customers’ money. So, once again the seemingly never-ending saga of the Musketeer continues on the pages of the.
December issue of The Dispatcher
But it’s only one of the stories in the issue. Skip it if you don’t care about Musk and his companies. If you care about driverless cars, the first story
should be of interest. If you want more info on what China is doing to the Western car industry, there is something in the issue for you. I hope you will all read
Musings this month. Not everyone has built a car or written software, but everyone has walked on a sidewalk at some point in their lives. I take you on a sidewalk journey through time and ask you to think about whether you want to have sidewalks to walk
on to get some place in the future, or whether you would prefer to have sidewalks that are paid attractions, like rides at an amusement park….”
Read
more Hmmmm...Continued excellence. Comments are @ ZoomCast
294 /
PodCast294 . Alain
Argo
AI Folded After a Lifeline From Amazon Never Arrived: Report
P.Holderith, Nov. 22, “The dream of smoking a cigar with the windows up in your self-driving turbine-powered jet car may be on hold. At least, that's what the demise of
Argo AI, backed by monolithic automakers Ford and VW indicated. Before it all came crashing down though, Bloomberg reports Amazon nearly stepped in to keep the ball rolling.
The retail giant, which is rumored to be laying off thousands of employees, was allegedly interested in the technology for use in its Rivian-built delivery vans last year.
However, a struggle to determine how Argo would be governed with three large investors as well as an alleged high cost of the autonomous driving company's tech soured the deal. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, which hasn't done anyone besides defense contractors
any good.
Amazon was reportedly willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into the startup. Ford had already invested $1 billion in 2017, followed by an even bigger $2.6
billion pile of cash from Volkswagen. In fact, VW's now-deposed CEO Herbert Diess even met with Jeff Bezos personally to discuss details of a potential deal. This was followed by prototype Argo vehicles running Amazon delivery routes, albeit without dispensing
any packages.
Argo additionally hired 150 people to work on what seemed like a surefire investment from Amazon, but it was for naught. A governing deal couldn't be struck, the global economy was in a further state of disrepair
thanks to that Vlad guy over in Russia—what's his last name again?—and inflation got more serious….”
Read
more Hmmmm... Reminiscent of what Larry Burns recalled in his book “Autonomy:
The Quest to Build the Driverless Car―And How It Will Reshape Our World” about a failed “partnership” between Ford & Waymo that would have “reshaped our world”. Waymo (L), VW (W), Amazon (L), VW(L)… now what? Alain
What
Riding in a Self-Driving Tesla Tells Us About the Future of Autonomy
C. Metz, Nov. 14, “Cade and Ian spent six hours riding in a self-driving car in Jacksonville,
Fla., to report this story.
When we decided it was time for lunch, Chuck Cook tapped the digital display on the dashboard of his Tesla Model Y and told the car to drive us to the Bearded Pig, a barbecue
joint on the other side of town.
“I don’t know how it’s gonna do. But I think it’s gonna do pretty good,” he said with the folksy, infectious enthusiasm he brought to nearly every moment of our daylong
tour of Jacksonville, Fla., in a car that could drive itself. …
As the car approached the shadows beneath this mossy canopy, it suddenly changed course, turned sharply right and headed the wrong way down a one-way street: he moment
highlighted the difference between Tesla’s self-driving technology and “robotaxi” services being developed by companies like Waymo, owned by the same parent company as Google, and Cruise, backed by General Motors. The robotaxi companies are trying to reduce
these unexpected moments by tightly controlling where and how a car can drive. But these services will have strict limitations that make the task easier. The cars will travel only in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low
speeds. And company technicians will provide remote assistance to cars that inevitably find themselves in situations they cannot navigate on their own…. "Read
more Hmmmm... This is exactly the basis for our MOVES-style approach to deployment. In the near term, this technology
has a reasonable chance of being good enough if its calibrations (the released version) has been biased to work well in …”
in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds” ,. It must also demonstrated that it does work well (zero disengagements)
in a sufficient subset of the streets in those neighborhoods such that the driver/attendant is not needed to ensure safe operation. Substantially better mobility can then be delivered between many locations throughout those neighborhoods in most weather
conditions than the mobility available today throughout those neighborhoods.
Unless Driverless is substantially better in delivering mobility to some in some places they will never be more that a fad or fashion statement. Unfortunately, that’s
how Driverless has been positioned to date. “My car drives itself! A ride becomes a goofy selfie on TikTok/Instagram/Twitter… Look Mom, no hands!!! Good luck in any repeat customers or near-term RoI.
As we’ve been saying over and over, the substantial value proposition of driverless (or real FSD) is NOT safety (it can be “as safe” but, again,
way too difficult for it to be substantially safer) and, in the near term, not a fashion statement or toy for the rich (way too expensive to create that). It certainly can’t be substantially better than one’s own personal car, although it can come close to
being as good and maybe even arguably better to some.
The attributes that can make Driverless substantially better than all other forms of mobility is its capability to affordability deliver high-quality
(auto-like demand-responsive non-circuitous, 24/7 availability in most weather conditions) mobility affordably while being safe, equitable and environmentally responsive (by facilitating casual ride-sharing when warranted as is done naturally when using elevators).
Such a mobility service is offered by Kiosk2Kiosk elevator-like operation throughout the safest subset of interconnecting streets. We call these
MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks.
Affordability is THE key differentiator. If you are rich enough to afford a car
for yourself and have a driver’s license, then this system isn’t substantially better than what you have now. Neither is it if you can afford to pay and tip an Uber/Lyft gig worker or if your expense account pays for your taxi/limo or black car driver or
if you have a chauffeur. Nor if you live in Manhattan or in the very center of a few of our largest cities. For everyone else (the too young, the too old, the too poor, the sufficiently poor that can’t afford a car for each driver in the family, then
MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks can readily be transformative. Trenton NJ turns out to be one of these communities where 70% of households have access to one or fewer cars. Perth Amboy, NJ,. Cherry Hill, MD, Patterson,
NJ, Scranton, PA are similar. My
Mobility Disadvantage Index for places in New Jersey can be found
here and for the rest of the US,
here.
I am confident that Waymo, Cruise and Tesla could today, make their systems work safely in Trenton and many of the other Mobility Disadvantaged communities if they simply added to their training
set the data from driving between the kiosks in, say Trenton, and generated a ***.Trenton release of their ***Driver to be used exclusively in Trenton to deliver substantially improved mobility to many. Alain
Gusciora
leads big in Trenton; many council seats up in the air
J. Fox, Nov 9, "Trenton Mayor Reed Gusciora has a huge lead in his bid for a second term, putting him in a dominant position against two of his longtime foes, Council President
Kathy McBride and Councilwoman Robin Vaughn, in the city’s nonpartisan election.
According to numbers from the Mercer County Clerk’s office, Gusciora currently has more than 70% of the vote...."
Read more Hmmmm... Yea!!
Now Trenton MOVES can become a reality. Alain
A
Deployment Framework for MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks
A. Kornhauser, Nov. 1, "So much has been happening lately on the AV scene. With all these recent changes in mind, it seems a good moment for me to reiterate the basic fundamentals of mobility
and then to restate the context with which I see the potential value of AV technology. In the following presentation, I will identify some pertinent societal challenges where mobility might have an opportunity to substantially improve quality-of-life. Fundamental
to this concept is the deployment of technology that disrupts consumer choice, thus allowing the marketplace to deliver both the economic return on the investment in the technology and to unleash the societal benefits of the improved quality-of-life." Read
more Hmmmm... View
slides,
listen to PodCast and/or
watch a repeat of the presentation that I made at the 2022
UBC International Road Safety Symposium. Alain
Ford,
VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down
K. Korosec, Oct 26, "Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment, is shutting down — its parts being absorbed
into its two main backers: Ford and VW, according to people familiar with the matter.
During an all-hands meeting Wednesday, Argo AI employees were told that some people would receive offers from the two automakers, according to multiple sources who asked to not be named. It was unclear how many would be hired into Ford or VW and which companies
will get Argo’s technology.
Employees were told they would receive a severance package that includes insurance and two separate bonuses — an annual award plus a transaction bonus upon the deal close with Ford and VW. All Argo employees will receive these. For those who are not retained
by Ford or VW, they will additionally receive termination and severance pay, including health insurance. Several people told TechCrunch that it was a generous package and that the founders of the company spoke directly to its more than 2,000 employees..." ... Certainly
a "class act" way to shut down.
"...said Farley. “It’s mission-critical for Ford to develop great and differentiated L2+ and L3 applications
that at the same time make transportation even safer.” Farley also insinuated that Ford would be able to buy AV tech down the line, instead of developing it in house. “We’re optimistic about a future for L4 ADAS, but profitable, fully autonomous vehicles
at scale are a long way off and we won’t necessarily have to create that technology ourselves,” ... Read
more Hmmmm... What??? What is "L4 ADAS"??? You are really going to do L3 which many believe is harder than L4. L3 is going to require that Ford accept the safety liability and the "obey all the legal operation" liability for the life
of the vehicle whenever the driver is able to engage that functionality. There is NO WAY Ford or really any OEM is ever going to take on that substantive amount of liability unless there is such an abundance of fine print that it makes Elon's proclamations
about FSD seem like junior varsity.
We all understand that "L2+" is today's "50s-style chrome & fins" propelling the selling cars in showrooms as OEMs have always done. Absolutely no need to get to
driverless (L4 in some societly or commercially viable ODD).
Idf someone does develop (as I quoted last week) Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: "... [I]n
capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs
of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph
A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”, it is going to simply make it available to allow Ford to continue to serve its customers or will use it to crush Ford? Alain
L. Sumagaysay, Oct. 27, "...", Read
more Hmmmm... Another view. Alain
Ford
thinks driver assist is a safer bet than driverless cars, but it’s fooling itself
Waymo
says it’s bringing robotaxis to L.A.
Russ Mitchell, Oct 19, 2022 “The company, owned by Google parent Alphabet, said Wednesday that it plans to make L.A. its next market. “L.A. is in the top three ride-hailing
markets in the United States and globally,” said Saswat Panigrahi, the company’s chief product officer. “The commercial opportunity is huge.”
But Waymo offered scant information about its plans, including when the commercial service will begin and how extensive the service’s coverage will be….” Read
more Hmmmm... or what the service will be? Ride-hailing??? Compete with Uber/Lyft… good luck! After leading the "testing phase" for the last 13 years, this is their plan for the "deployment phase". So disappointing! Doesn’t come
close to meeting Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: "... [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…-
competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph
A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”. Alain
The
Long Run to Autonomous Vehicles
K. Pyle, Oct. 13, "Autonomous vehicles (AV) provide the opportunity to correct government transportation failures is how the Brookings
Institution’s Clifford Winston characterized the potential opportunity provided by autonomous vehicles. Winston spoke to the possible economic impact of autonomous vehicles in an online media briefing (YouTube
video) that also included speakers from Princeton and the Reason Foundation who touched on the technology and the role of public policy and regulation. A lively question and answer period followed the briefing...." Read
more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you. Excellent. Alain
Tesla Staff, Sept. 30, "Streamed live..." Read
more Hmmmm... I'm not much of a fan of humanoids so you may skip the first hour; however, starting @ 0:58:00 - FSD Intro, the next hour and a half is substantive and a must watch. My takeaway remains driverless "everywhere" is so enormously
challenging that the near-term opportunity (next 10 years) to sell such a vehicle to a consumer is simply unthinkable. The terms & conditions would need to be so onerous making the total addressable market essentially null.
That said, I suspect that there exist some, possibly many, societally beneficial Operational Design Domains (ODD), where "FSD 69.2.2" or near term releases can deliver
safe driverless mobility. This deployment strategy is what I with the technical support of CARTS, Inc. have decided to focus on. Alain
Batteries: Theme
of the Next Mad Max Dystoposeries
Sept 28, M. Sena, "IN THE PAST, when a country believed it was not receiving enough of a resource that it felt it needed and deserved, it went to war to take it. Gold,
silver, tea, spices, cotton, cod, coal, grain, oil and many other commodities have been the causes of nations attempting to steal land and seas from other nations. There are countless numbers of movies that show us the horrors of war, but the postapocalyptical
MAD MAX film series gives us a glimpse of what it could look like after all the big wars have been fought and lost. Warlords and their gangs prey on survivors of the wars that caused societies everywhere to collapse. They battle each other over gasoline, water
and food. Are we trading wars over oil for wars over lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth metals, jumping from one frying pan into another? As governments continue with their policies to dramatically increase demand for these commodities, the chances for
expanded conflicts increase. In many areas, they have already begun. ..." Read
more
Hmmmm... Another excellent issue. Enjoy! Also watch or listen:ZoomCast
285 /PodCast
285
Alain
Self-Driving
Tech Company Floats Possible Sale to Apple or Microsoft
D. Welch, Aug. 30, "Aurora Innovation Inc.’s chief executive officer recently laid out a range of options for the self-driving company to respond to worsening market conditions
and partners pushing out timelines, including a possible sale to Apple Inc. or Microsoft Corp., according to a document seen by Bloomberg.
Chris Urmson, who co-founded Aurora after running Google’s self-driving car project, also outlined cost cuts and floated measures including taking the company private, spinning off or selling assets and pursuing a small capital raise in a memo labeled “board
discussion pre-read” and dated Aug. 3. Urmson inadvertently sent this to staff and asked them on Aug. 9 not to open it, the document shows. ..." Read
more Hmmmm... Realistic but not good news. With revenue at zero all of these companies are struggling. The annual addressable market of new class 8 trucks in the US is about 275,000 units. Given the large number of competitors addressing
a limited market that has yet to yield any revenue for any of them suggests that this is a really tough business, especially if first revenue remains a year or more in the future.
What may be even more daunting is competition from a TeslaSemi with
"FSD.Class8", not to mention the Waymo
Via initiative. They both can cross subsidize their driverless Class 8 initiatives with their driverless people movement investment.
I still contend that there is a substantial near-term revenue opportunity Advanced Professional Driver Assistance focused on improving Professional Driver workplace. OSHA should
be mandating such technology. Aurora could be generating revenue from it today. CEOs of trucking companies could be paying for it today and pocketing extremely attractive RoIs. Professional Drivers would be happier campers. So much so that the driver shortage
might disappear. Alain
Funding
Roads: Pay for the Effect or Pay for the Cause
M. Sena, Aug. 30, "The September 2022 Issue in Brief
Funding Roads: There was a time when the main problem with roads in the U.S. and Europe was that there were not enough of them to keep drivers from getting stuck in traffic. Then, environmentalism, NIMBYism, anti-feceralism and anybody-with-a-beefism
put the breaks on all infrastructure. They shifted the debate to how to pay, rather than what do we need to stay competitive with the countries where the rulers decide what gets built where and how. Is there a way forward for democracies to have a functioning
infrastructure, or must we look on with envy at countries where totalitarian governments build infrastructure like it’s the 1950s in the West?
Dispatch Central: A new city in the desert is an old idea - The de facto head of the Saudia Arabia government has designed a city with one stroke of the pencil. One very long stroke.
Aluminum: Another brick in the Wall of China – Governments required higher fuel efficiency. OEMs lowered car weights to comply. China cornered the market on the material that was needed to make it happen: aluminum. Sound familiar?
Some countries actually do something about Tesla – China (again) seems to be the only country that can tell Tesla to “Heel?”, and Tesla heels. We don’t wonder why this is so.
GM looking for money in all the wrong places – Making something like OnStar a ‘standard option’ is like telling parishoners they need to put money in the collection basket in order to get into mass. ..." Read
more Hmmmm... Another fantastic issue. See ZoomCast
282/PodCast
282 for a discussion of the content. Alain
Tesla
Releases FSD Beta 10 69 With New Occupancy Network
Tesla Daily, Aug. 22, " Looking at first impressions from Tesla’s release of FSD Beta 10.69..." Read
more Hmmmm...
Be sure to watch Ashok
Elluswamy's "Occupancy
Networks" keynote presentation at CVPR on June 20, 2022. Very impressive, especially the use of training videos and it realization in FSD 10.69
Also pertinent are video demonstrations of:
My takeaway from the above is that FSD 10.69 is impressive but not near "Full" anything, especially if put in the hands of some individual who themselves may well
be a menace on the road.
While not being near "Full" anything, FSD may be nearing the point in which it is FSD within some useful Operational Design Domain.
It is one thing to be able to safely negotiate a trips segment: safely drive straight down a well marked lane in clear weather, safely make an unprotected left, safely
stop behind a stop line at a stop sign, ... Each is an important achievement.
It is a whole other challenge to be able to safely go from some origin to some destination thus delivering useful mobility to some person or some thing safely
without any disengagements. The ensemble of these origin-destination pairs would define the ODD for FSD. To date that ODD has been essentially null. The challenge for subsequent releases of FSD may well be to begin to explicitly identify FSD's ODD sand
assess the extent to which these ODDs have emerged from the null state to begin to safely provide some useful mobility to the general public. Alain
Asking FSD to be "Full" everything, everywhere to everyone is simply a naive unachievable objective. To me a better question may well be in which Operational Design
Domain is FSD indeed Full Self-Driving?
Once that ODD is determined, restrict FSD to operate ONLY in that ODD.
Tesla must accept the responsibility allowing FSD to be engaged ONLY when the car is operating in Operational Design Domain where Tesla has certified that FSD drives
safely. Else, FSD safely pull over, stop disengage and turn the responsibility of continuing on to the human driver. It should be Tesla's responsibility to allow FSD to be turned on and the determination of when and where it ceases to move because Tesla
must be held responsible and liable if it something bad happens when it is driving. If I'm driving I'm responsible and liable. Not my passenger who may or may not be paying attention to what is going on. If FSD is driving it must accept that responsibility
and not expect the passenger to help out. The word "Self" implies "Full"; else the product should be called Partnership-driving or Team-driving or ??? Alain
Can
Tesla Data Help Us Understand Car Crashes?
C. Metz, Aug. 18, "Shortly before 2 p.m. on a clear July day in 2020, as Tracy Forth was driving near Tampa, Fla., her white Tesla Model S was hit from behind by another
car in the left lane of Interstate 275.
It was the kind of accident that occurs thousands of times a day on American highways. When the vehicles collided, Ms. Forth’s car slid into the median as the other one, a blue Acura sport utility vehicle, spun across the highway and onto the far shoulder.
After the collision, Ms. Forth told police officers that Autopilot — a Tesla driver-assistance system that can steer, brake and accelerate cars — had suddenly activated her brakes for no apparent reason. She was unable to regain control, according to the police
report, before the Acura crashed into the back of her car.
But her description is not the only record of the accident. Tesla logged nearly every particular, down to the angle of the steering wheel in the milliseconds before impact. Captured by cameras and other sensors installed on the car, this data provides a startlingly
detailed account of what occurred, including video from the front and the rear of Ms. Forth’s car.
It shows that 10 seconds before the accident, Autopilot was in control as the Tesla traveled down the highway at 77 miles per hour. Then she prompted Autopilot to change lanes..." Read
more Hmmmm...
We've been calling for an independent analysis of the Tesla data for some time. Privacy is easy to protect. There is no need to know who owns or was operating each Tesla. Also see ZoomCast
280 Alain
Tesla's
2022 Shareholder Meeting with Elon Musk
E. Musk, Aug. 4, .” Read
more Hmmmm... Watch the Q & A portion starting about an hour in from the start. Watch especially the comments about his vision of the Tesla RoboTaxi (aka driverless cars, what I prefer to call autonomousTaxis or aTaxis, the new "Modern Transit").
The key visions are:
@
t=6375 ... the issue of how he sees these driverless vehicles being operated (deployed).
While I don't agree with the option of owning your own and renting it out "AirB&B -style where B&B = Mobility". It is easier and more likely to begin by having a
Professional entity managing a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis that provide mobility to the everyone in the community. This will be the the "Modern Public Transit". An example being Trenton MOVES using a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis.
For these RoboTaxis to be attractive to a fleet operator, they will need to be styled differently than consumer versions that are sold to individuals. The RoboTaxi
will need to be easy to get in and out and interface well with wheelchairs. They'll need to accommodate ride-sharing (personTrips are the source of the revenue, not vehicle sales). They should have 4-wheel steering so they will never need to back up in
stub-end operation. He has re imagined the pickup truck. Certainly, he can re-imagine a car focused on providing safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable high-quality mobility throughout a community.
At the end of addressing the future of Robotasis he states ..." assuming we do all these things, I think, probably,
Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world."
@
t=7057 Elon is asked "when will Tesla launch the first pilot city for the RoboTaxi business?
Elon dodged the question by stating that he is focused on doing driverless everywhere, even in every imaginable simulation of the real world. Consequently, once achieved,
it could be released everywhere al at once.
While a great vision, this is simply not realistic. He started selling Teslas in California, not throughout the whole country. He fully understands that one must
crawl before one walks, before one runs.
As you might suspect, I have the ideal "California" for him to first deploy his RoboTaxis and its not California or Arizona. It is New Jersey: Trenton, NJ or Perth
Amboy, NJ or Patterson, NJ or many other cities in New Jersey where the mobility offered by Tesla RoboTaxis would be life changing to many while becoming an interesting alternative to everyone else. DoJo can more readily regress the coefficients to deliver
safe driverless operation within any one of these Operational Design Domains (ODD) rather than trying to do them all simultaneously. Coefficients can/should be tied to ODDs rather than having one "magical" set that works in all ODDs. It is trivial for the
Operating system to load the coefficients that work best in theRoboTaxi's current ODD. This should allow RoboTaxis to demonstrate their technical, economic and societal virtues much sooner in these communities. Market success will fuel expansion and replication
in the delivery of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility so that is spreads beyond New Jersey to California and beyond just like the purchase of the first Teslas spread from California to New Jersey and beyond.
@
t=7417 Elon is asked about the Boring Company.
True, if one could bore tunnels inexpensively, it would be great for longer distance travel. Certainly, all of the freeways in and around cities would be placed
underground. High Speed rail on the NorthEast Corridor can only go underground for long stretches. Bringing the Dinky to a Nassau Street terminus must be done underground. By the way Washington Road should be underground eradicating the cancer that it is
as a surface street severing the Princeton Campus. Then there is Rt. 29 that devastated Trenton by barricading the western part of Trenton from the Delaware River and Rt. 129 that severed neighborhoods; a scenario that was repeated in essentially every city
to accommodate through-moving surface travel. They should all go underground. There is much good that could be done. The challenge is the above if.
@
t=6665 "when disengaging autoPilot with the wheel, the accelerator stays on. Please fix it!"
Maybe... touching or not touching the steering wheel has little in common with acceleration (and braking) which is (are) controlled by the feet. The steering control
should be readily overcome by input of a torque on the steering wheel; however, the steering control should revert to dominance if the driver ceases to exhort a torque on the wheel. Moreover, torquing the steering wheel should not disengage the brake or the
throttle.
With respect to the driver actions on the brake and throttle:
Driver input from the throttle should have precedence over "intelligent cruise control (ICC)" input to the throttle and brake and should NOT turn off the system simply
because the driver touched the accelerator pedal.
For the brake, it is a little different. Tapping the brake should turn off the acceleration function of the ICC. Acceleration should remain off until the driver
explicitly re-engages it. Moreover, driver input to the brake, if less than what the ICC calls for, should always be dominated by the ICC's desire to brake. Tapping of the brakes should not turn off the braking function of the ICC. That intelligent
brakig function should continue to keep m fro getting to close to the vehicle in front of me. The acceleration function has been turned off so I won't accelerate into the back of the car ahead of me and the braking function should continue to do its best
to keep a proper separation between me and the vehicle ahead. Turning the whole system off placing me completely in control should require an explicit action by me that indicates I'm knowingly usurping responsibility.
I believe ICC should be on all the time. Driver sets the speed and separation (or it is done automatically relative to the speed limit, weather conditions and road
curvatures). Driver can choose to override the throttle and override the braking at any time; however, in the absence of overrides, the ICC is in charge. Alain
GM's
Cruise robotaxi unit drives deeper into the red
Reuters, July 26, "General Motors Co (GM.N) has lost nearly $5 billion since 2018 trying to build a robotaxi business in San Francisco, and now as the automaker's Cruise
unit starts charging for rides, the losses are accelerating.
GM said on Tuesday it lost $500 million on Cruise during the second quarter - more than $5 million a day - as it began charging for rides in a limited area of San Francisco. ... that may be the case for
the last quarter, but the chart below from GM's
6/30/222 10-Q Shows ($800M) for the last 6 months or $4.38/day when divided by 182.625 Whew!
“Cruise's costly effort to transform autonomous driving technology from a long-term research project to a profit-spinning business comes as investors are backing away from riskier bets on technology, and reassessing how soon robot vehicles of any kind will
be deployed in large scale on public roads.
Shares of autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR.O), for example, are down 80% for the year to date. Shares of robo-trucking company TuSimple
Holdings Inc (TSP.O) have lost more than 70% of their value. Some automakers, including Ford Motor Co (F.N), have scaled back investments in automated vehicle units, or taken on partners to share the costs....
Cruise's losses for the first six months of the year deepened to $900 million from $600 million during the same period in 2021 - when Cruise was not charging for rides.
Higher compensation costs to keep staff on board after putting aside plans for an IPO were one factor in the results, GM executives said.
Chief Executive Mary Barra said on Tuesday she is still bullish on Cruise, and reaffirmed a forecast that the unit could generate $50 billion a year in revenue from automated vehicle services and technology by 2030. .” Read
more Hmmmm... Nice optimism. The source of the reality check above comes from GM's
6/30/222 10-Q. Start reading from page 41. then on page 43:
Whoa! The only nice thing that can be imagined is by assuming that they've had essentially zero revenue, the operating costs have "only" been $800M for the last 6
months. That is non-small.
I'd like to suggest that the strategy of trying to create a profitable driverless mobility service for folks that already have 2 or more cars in their garage, have
excellent public transit service or travel on expense accounts when wanting to go to between the airport and "downtown" may not be the wisest way to launch such a mobility service. There is little opportunity to be substantially better or even equivalent
to what those potential customers already have. Little opportunity to get loyal and repeat customers. The focus to date has been too heavily weighted on getting the technology to work for folks who already have more mobility options than they know what to
do with. Great for click-bait; challenging for the 10-Q. What must Waymo's 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
Capturing loyal and repeat customers is really tough when the competition is excellent and entrenched. While pricing can be high, volume is almost non-existent even
with nominal pricing. Except for the novelty, the marketplace in the Chandlers and SFs is essentially non-existent. To date those markets have been quiet, at best. What must Waymo's 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
It astonishes me that to date none of the leading driverless companies have spent any money trying to serve the needs of folks that don't own cars, aren't traveling
using someone else's money, nor have access to a good public transit system focused on their mobility needs.
These folks definitely can't pay as much for a ride as those that are being chased by Cruise & Waymo, but there are more of them. Moreover, its almost trivial to
provide them with a mobility option that is substantially better than what they have today for many, if not most, of their daily personTrips.
This is the market that we've found in New Jersey; in Trenton & Mercer County, Perth Amboy & Middlesex County and Patterson & Passaic County. We haven't even begun
looking in Newark, Camden, Atlantic City and the rest of New Jersey.
The excuse seems to have been that it would be too expensive to deal with NJ's bad weather, even though, we've made it clear that New jersey is not interested in a
365.25 days/yr. mobility solution. We'd be more than pleased with a 350 days/yr. operation. New Jersey has more than 350 good days a year. We aren't so entitled that we can't wait for the hurricane to blow through, the snow to be shoveled or the fog to
lift before we go about our normal business. We enjoy the "snow day" at home. We are convinced that is actually easier and cheaper to capture recurring and loyal NJ customers.
The rule-of-thumb for a Trenton-MOVES style operation is: a vehicle needs to serve at least 100 personTrips/day. With slightly better ride-sharing and time-of-day
pricing, one might be able to get to 150 personTrips/day. To cover a fleet of 100 vehicles, ridership needs to be about 10k to 15k personTrips/day. This kind of utilization leads to per personTrip capitalization costs of less that $1/personTrip for vehicles
costing upwards of $150k @ interest rates upward of 7.5%. That is to say, $1/personTrip readily covers the vehicle capital costs even at moderate scales.
Given that trips on-average are less than five miles, vehicle operating costs are less than $1/personTrip.
Management costs are largely fixed. With volume the per personTrip burden decrease enormously, and can't be more than $0.50/personTrip.
Break-even fare is thus roughly $2.50/personTrip.
An average market fare of $3.50/personTrip delivers a profit of >$1.00/personTrip, >$100/vehicle-day.
A fleet of 100 vehicles delivers a profit >$10k/day, >$3.0M/yr. in the Trenton ODD serving 10k personTrips/day.
From where do these 10k personTrips/day materialize?
Essentially all the riders of NJ Transit rail would love a simple reliable convenient way to get to & from the train. By on-demand service within the community around
the train station, loyalty upwards of 80% could be achieved for anyone wanting to go to NYC or within walking distance to any other NJ train station. For Trenton that represents a marketplace of 8,000 personTrips/day that currently drive to & from the station
every day and those that currently don't use the train that would if it was easy and reliable to them to get to AND from the station, when they wanted to get to and from there. Half of the 10k would easily come from serving the Trenton Train Station.
Trenton Central HS has 1,800 students. More than 1,500 live more than a 10 minute walk to the TCHS. Truancy is proportional to how far a student has to walk to school.
Trenton MOVES could readily serve 1,250 of these students every day. That's 1/4 of the needed 10k.
We only need another 2.5k personTrips and we haven't even begun dealing with getting people to & from work in Trenton, doctors, shopping visiting friends, etc. needed
by the 70% of Trenton households who have access to one or zero cars. 100 vehicles serving 10k personTrips/day making >3.0M/year @ an average fare of $3.50/personTrip is just the start of a profitable business. Employing 200 vehicles costing at most $100k
at interest rates of less than 7.5% serving 150 personTrips/day at fares of $3.00/personTrip makes way more than $5M per year.
Expanding Trenton MOVES throughout Mercer County giving the opportunity to increase average fare (because of the longer personTrips) to maybe $5/personTrip keeping
utilization @ 150 personTrips/vehicle-day of a fleet of 1,000 vehicles and doing a little better on interest rates and cap costs can lead to profits of >$10M/year for Trenton/Mercer MOVES. There are at least 10 replications of Trenton/Mercer MOVES that could
be done in NJ by 2030 utilizing a fleet of at least 10,000 vehicles leading to a profit of >$100M/year.
This kind of success leads to having many more people leave their cars at home and frequenting NJ-MOVES as their mobility system. This could lead to a NJ-Moves fleet
of >100,000 vehicles is generating a profit of >$1B.
If Mary expects this to be achieved by 2030 and replicated in the 50 other states (on average) as the Universe she expects to exist in 2030, I'm hopeful but skeptical.
My point is, that starting with Trenton MOVES as the big bang that achieved her vision seems to me to be a lot clearer that where Cruise/Waymo have chosen to try to create a Big Bang. Seems as if she and Kyle should be taking Trenton and New Jersey much more
seriously. Please call me! Alain
Baidu
unveils autonomous vehicle without steering wheel
Reuters, July 16, "China's search engine giant Baidu Inc on Thursday unveiled its new autonomous vehicle (AV) with a detachable steering wheel, with plans to put it to
use for its robotaxi service in China next year.
Cost per unit will drop to 250,000 yuan ($37,031.55) for the new model, compared with 480,000 yuan for the previous generation, Baidu said in a statement.
“This massive cost reduction will enable us to deploy tens of thousands of AVs across China," Baidu's chief executive Robin Li said at the Baidu World conference. "We are moving towards a future where taking a robotaxi will be half the cost of taking a taxi
today.” Read
more Hmmmm... Really?? See
video. Where do I buy 10 for immediate delivery to New Jersey with option to buy 100 more by EoY'22 and 1st inline to buy 1,000 more by EoY'23. eMail me!!!
While the design is certainly not ideal for "Trenton MOVES" or "Perth Amboy MOVES" they would be good enough to get started with addressing the "Sociology Challenges"
of MOVES-style deployments. And the price is right if this isn't total click-bait. But... that is a really big if .
�� Alain
Press release, July 12,"May Mobility, a leader in the development and deployment of autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, today closed a $111 million Series C round of funding.
Additionally, the company plans to continue to pursue its deployment programs using the Toyota Sienna Autono-MaaS vehicle platform while beginning development on another vehicle design centered around mobility, Toyota’s e-Palette, signaling the next potential
milestone as it seeks new ways to bring equitable mobility solutions to the masses...." Read
more Hmmmm... Hopefully this will enable May Mobility to take seriously Trenton MOVES and other MOVES-style deployment initiatives in New Jersey and beyond. Alain
THE DISPATCHER
Princeton
Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit
June 24, M. Sena "THE DISPATCHER, July 2022
IN THIS ISSUE
Princeton Fifth Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit ...........
Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality
Mobility for Everyone .......................................................2
Dispatch Central................................................................9
Someone lit a fire under NHTSA .......................................9
The Economist: Right analysis, wrong solution ..............12
Musings of a Dispatcher: Eyes on the Back Story...........15
The evolution of digital maps and ADAS ........................15
Digital Maps for the Vehicle – 1970-2022 ......................24 ...
" Read
more Hmmmm... Another great edition and very well written summary of the 5th Summit. Alain
NHTSA
Releases Initial Data on Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies
June 15, Press release, "Today, as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage innovation, the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration published
the initial round of data it has collected through its Standing
General Order issued last year and initial accompanying reports summarizing this data.
The SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems summary report is
available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving systems summary report is
available here. Going forward, NHTSA will release data updates monthly..." Read
more Hmmmm... This is a good start; however, as NHTSA repeats many times, this is just a start and there are many "data limitations". The most severe may well be the possibility of substantial "sampling
bias", the most severe of which is that each OEM sourced the reported data very differently. That makes the data between OEMs incomparable.
Also un reported is any measure that would enable a "crash rate" for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.
Finally, 392 crashes of "Level 2" cars were reported during the "10" month period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022. About 12
million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate in the US. Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be involved in more than one crash per yer, it means that each vehicle, on average is involved
in 12M/283M = 0.0424 crashes per year. Thus, if these ADAS cars were involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year contained in these data would expect to be generated from a fleet of only about
11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042% of the vehicles ("everything being equal", ADAS on all the time.).
Consequently, either, ...
Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers are not startling.
What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents. Maybe OtA should be mandated. At minimum, the VIN should specify the existence of theses capabilities. Then
normal police reportings can begin to "automatically" access the "black
box event recorders" (see also Accident
data recorder and NHTSA)
that are in most cars today. Unfortunately, privacy
concerns makes this not-easy. So here we are. It wont be easy to do much better, but we should continue to try.
What the data do point out is that a substantial number of the crashes involved the rear ending of a stationary object. I have pointed out repeatedly that the source
code of these systems explicitly disregard stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this explicit process is that current sensors incur unacceptable false positives when trying to determine if sufficient headroom exists under detected stationary object
in the lane ahead. Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are all assumed to be "pass under-able".
As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects in the lane ahead. These are readily sensed and precisely located ahead. Readily sensed are overpasses, signs,
tree canopies, traffic lights, ... all of which can usually be readily passed under. (As can vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode. These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower mode.)
But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe, most, if not all "Level 2" systems disregard that object and assume
the car can pass underneath. So if you are in vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will disregard that object. Similarly, if the vehicle that you are following changes lanes forcing
you to become a leader, any stationary object ahead will be disregarded. Alain
3 minute Promo: https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
Dr.
Steve Still's Tribute to Heywood Patterson
S. Still, June 3, "... Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. "That's
what eh did all the time," Deborah Patterson said. "That's what the loved to do". ..." Watch
Video Hmmmm... A principal reason for "Trenton MOVES"-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson "loved to do"
for the many. Alain
The
Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles
M. Sena, May 24, "New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel
with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month’s the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good
idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.
There is no Musings in this month’s issue. Instead, I have put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric vehicles.
Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. ..." Read
more Hmmmm... Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain
From
pricing carbon to fighting opioid abuse, ORFE showcased top senior projects
A. Nathans, May 11, "When Serena Ren presented her senior thesis on using machine learning for art appraisals last month, she hoped to see her friend, Joyce Luo, present
her thesis on fighting opioid addiction. But since all students in the Department of Operations Research and Financial Engineering present their theses in parallel sessions, this was impossible.
But on May 4, Ren and Luo finally got to see each other’s presentations in a classroom in Sherrerd Hall, thanks to the department’s first-ever event in which selected students present their thesis work to the whole department.... " Read
more Hmmmm... I'm so proud! Hopefully we'll be able to release the video so you can enjoy. Keep trying the link:
Princeton
ORFE Class of 2022 Senior Thesis Symposium "Best 8"
1.
Isabelle Grosgogeat "Impact
of women and minority ownership on private equity"
2.
Joyce Luo "Equitable
data-driven resource allocation to fight the opioid pandemic"
3.
Caroline Noonan "The
impact of carbon price on power plant dispatch, production costs, and total emissions"
4.
Hari Ramakrishnan "Lighting
up dark pools"
5.
Serena Ren "Automatic
art appraisals"
6.
Mitchell Stroebell "A
comparison of advanced player statistics for the NBA"
7.
Jack Woll "Pairs
trading and volatility"
8.
Andre Yin "Equity
trading strategies based on macroeconomic event analysis"
PAVE
VIRTUAL PANEL “AVS AND PUBLIC GOOD: TRENTON MOVES”
PAVE, May 4, "Autonomous vehicle technologies offer incredible potential: they could make our highways safer, they could offer new mobility options for people who can’t
drive, and they could help create a more equitable transportation system for those who are not well-served by our current system.
During the month of May, we are highlighting places where AVs are in use — today — being deployed, tested, and used for public good. We want to look at examples of the technology being used to serve food deserts, to expand access to rural communities, to offer
new accessibility options, and more.
We are starting with the Trenton MOVES initiative, which is the first large-scale urban transit system in America based entirely on self-driving shuttles. The shuttles, which carry four to eight passengers, serve traditionally underserved Trenton neighborhoods,
where 70% of households have limited access to a single automobile, or no access at all. Our panelists will detail the program, describing how it works, the results it has achieved, and their vision for the future......" Read
more Hmmmm... Very nice. Be sure to watch
video and see ZoomCast
267 Alain
NJDOT
Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program
P. Keller, April 29, "New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the
City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton....." Read
more Hmmmm... Very nice. Alain
April 21, "CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at #CoMotionMiami that:
Hmmmm... Yup! See
ZoomCast265 Alain
Musk
promises 'dedicated robotaxi' with futuristic look from Tesla
H. Jin, April 6, "Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a "dedicated" self-driving taxi that will "look futuristic," Chief Executive
Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.
The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1 billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new headquarters.
"Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the factory...." Read
more
Hmmmm... Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already
have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma's house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.
Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy
and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to "Massive
Scale" scale and Massive Profitability.
RoboTaxis' evolution to "Massive
Scale" is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn't seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality
of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.
Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. "Safe" is "safe", but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available.
For the rich, that's where they've already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently,
the service is used primarily for taking selfies.
For those that don't have their own car for whatever reason (can't drive, don't want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful.
Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.
Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive
Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;
These are the customers of Trenton
MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.
They'll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral! You'll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden,
Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, .....
That's the natural road to "Massive
Scale" for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.
"Massive
Scale" starts with Trenton
MOVES. Alain
Taking
our next step in the City by the Bay
The Waymo Team, March 30, "This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer
to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we’ve begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of
Waymo One riders we’ve been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives...." Read
more Hmmmm... Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually delvier "Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, HIgh-quality
Mobility" that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.
Let's look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers...
Trenton:
Population: 90,000.
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000
IntraTrenton: 150,000
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity:
VehicleTrips/Day: 50
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip
Electricity + maintenance + management + ... = $0.57/PersonTrip
Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million
IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
Operational Productivity
VehicleTrips/Day: 60
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43
Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57
Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00
Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000*$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year
90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M*3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value poposition could hae the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)
Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn't be completely ignoring me. I guess I'm missing something.
Maybe someone else will call me? �� Alain
Moving
Forward with Trenton MOVES
K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the
February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..." Read
more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
Smart
Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving
Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of
the event held on February 9th." Read
more Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain.
W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton
Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton
Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originally announced
by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s
Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles.
Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.
The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022 in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to
attend. ...." Read
more Hmmmm... Another real milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the 5thPrinceton
SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES' mobility objectives (Safety,
Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together
in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall |
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