Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022

11.14 - Plowing Ahead

February 09, 2022Newsletter archive →

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R. Bishop, March 30, "The John Deere Company wowed the crowds at the 2023 Consumer Electronics Show in January with their high-tech agricultural equipment. At their exhibit, heads craned upward in awe to take in the 120 ft boom of their precision spraying technology, straddled atop a massive tractor. At the CES 2022, Deere & Company introduced a fully autonomous tractor.

In the months since CES, we've seen multi-faceted challenges for companies seeking to transform road-running Automated Driving Systems (ADS) into a profitable business. ADS developer Embark announced a shutdown and Locomation appears to be on the same path. The mood of investors is uncertain, especially given troubles in the banking sector.

Against this backdrop, the off-road world is becoming increasingly interesting for companies developing autonomy. Caterpillar and Komatsu brought the first commercial ADS's to mining operations well over a decade ago. At that time, although the tech was very expensive, a business case could be made for equipping the huge mine-hauling trucks at open pit mines.

Since that time, thanks to the tidal wave of AV development for passenger cars, trucks, robo-shuttles, delivery robots, and more, the tech cost has now come down to reasonable levels for other types of industrial operations. Plus, the tech robustness has progressed by leaps and bounds. The result? Use cases are expanding rapidly in areas such as agriculture and construction. For this article, I'll dig into the Ag space to examine the linkages with on-road autonomy…." Read more

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 312 / PodCast 312 w/Helen Pen, GM of Baidu Apollo Autonomous Driving USA

F. Fishkin, April 3, "#Baidu #Apollo is now operating in three cities in China including Beijing, providing fully driverless rides to passengers. Helen Pan, GM of Baidu Apollo Autonomous Driving USA joins Alain and Fred and Jerry He of CARTS to discuss the progress and plans. Join us for the wide ranging discussion plus the latest on the upcoming 6th Annual Smart Driving Cars Summit! For more information about the 6th #SmartDrivingCars Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit

0:00 open
1:10 Helen Pan outlines status of Baidu's autonomous mobility efforts in China
3:50 Pan says Baidu Apollo has paying customers
11:52 Alain asks how Baidu is operating the services
21:07 What are hours of operation and where are vehicles able to operate
28:14 Pan outlines advantages of autonomous mobility and the business model
50:38 Helen on Apollo going Open Source with Apollo Open Platform
55:00 Apollo's hardware & software integration + OEM partnerships
58:00 Who will operated the service?
1:01:00 6th Annual Smart Driving Cars Summit is approaching
1:03:20 Alain on object of summit
0:00 open
0:45 Future of Life Institute calls for pause in further development of AI
27:00 EU Big 3 Countries want to freeze the ICE ban
37:00 Mind your own business but know who your customer really is.. railroads, cars.. mobility
1:04 upcoming Smart Driving Cars Summit
1:04:30 Ford CEO says new electric truck will allow you to nap, use phone, on highways in good weather
1:04:57 Bill Gates posts about going for a ride in a self-driving vehicle in the U.K.
0:00 F. Fishkin, March 24, "Where does autonomous mobility go from here? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore...plus Ford's EV losses, SMART grants fail to fund autonomous mobility, Waymo, drones & more.open
0:35 Princeton basketball
1:25 More thoughts in aftermath of ITU 2023 Future Networked Car ."Symposium. Where does autonomous mobility go from here?
29:26 SMART grants from DOT fail to fund autonomous mobility
31:55 Ford's EV losses
32:57 Ford updates on BlueOval City mega site in West Tennessee
34:46 Waymo takes on task of writing the safety case for Avs. Alain emphasizes that companies shouldn't compete on safety
39:25 The Street headline… Four reasons self driving cars, not drones, will deliver your packages.
0:00 open
0:53 Princeton sports!
1:40 ITU Symposium
4:35 Chat GPT
6:00 Missy Cummings at ITU
9:38 Safety systems not interconnected
13:45 ITU Symposium takeaways
30:40 UN regulations & autonomous vehicles Cruise and more
40:29 National Disability Institute report
45:11 Krogers and Gatik test autonomous trucks in Texas
54:30 Baidu reported offering driverless rides in Beijing
0:00 open
0:40 GM Ultra Cruise Chief Engineer Jason Ditman introduction
1:55 How did development go during Covid?
4:32 Announcement that Ultra Cruise will first arrive on 2024 Cadillac Celestiq
8:45 Alain comments on Super Cruise9:50How does Ultra Cruise availability figure into route planning
13:40 Why is hands off is important and not feet off16:45If using intelligent cruise control…why does it disengage when brakes are tapped?
25:29 System is separate from automated emergency braking…how do they talk to each other
28:43 Response to Missy Cummings headlines that people using automated systems involved in crashes were speeding more often than people driving without automated systems engaged.
33:24 GM Cruise says focused on cutting costs this year according to Reuters
37:25 NHTSA opens probe, reportedly, into self certification of the test procedures at Zoox
41:08 Embark winding down operations, laying off most employees
44:41 Kudos to GM Ultra Cruise team
49:24 Here comes Alain's spring break
0:00 open
0:44 Waymo Driver performance report
14:15 More layoffs at Waymo
15:00 Tesla Investor Day-what we learned
16:18 Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley impressed with Tesla Investor Day
23:05 Ford creates Latitude AI after demise of Argo AI
29:40 Guidehouse Insights research report
34:35 Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association seeks modernization of vehicle exemption process
39:05 Diane Gutierrez Scaccetti to chair Transportation Research Board Executive Committee
0:00 open
1:00 Is it time we admitted the world will change: the de-industrial revolution has begun
21:00 Impact on transportation, automakers
28:40 Run flat tires..from Michelin and more
35:25 GM's waits for NHTSA okay for deployment of Cruise Origin autonomous mobility
46:00 Locomation denies reports of its demise
47:08 The Insider report on Tesla… and upcoming master plan. Alain's comments not what were reported.
0:00 open
1:00 Missy Cumming pushing for limits on autonomous tech
9:30 hands free, feet free driving dangers
15:00 Should tech be used to block speeding and reckless driving?
32:00 Issues with intelligent cruise control
40:30 Is the battle for cars that would forbid speeding winnable?
44:00 Are vehicle safety systems not communicating with each other?
50:00 Is the problem with vehicles identifying stationary objects being addressed?
55:20 Zoox begins carrying passengers on public roads in vehicles without steering wheels
57:17 Rob Mauer's Tesla Daily
58:30 Ken Pyle's ViodiTV compiles autonomous round up from CES
59:25 Brad Templeton launches Robocars podcast
59:48 Alain will lead off MIT Mobility Forum series Friday
0:00 open
0:48 Active Driving Assistance Evaluation Report from Consumer Reports
2:53 Ford's BlueCruise ousts GM as top in ADAS
10:33 What is the value of being able to drive hands free and pedal free
16:40 Why doesn't the technology prevent speeding and misbehavior
21:08 Are consumers using the safety features..
27:14 Pro active braking assist coming to more vehicles and is a great feature
36:00 Should there be a light or mechanism that shows others whether cars are being controlled by human or automated system?
43:43 Are there things that carmakers are really getting right or really getting wrong?
51:00 Corvette on top in CR report on vehicle owner satisfaction
52:43 Navya
53:00 Axios reports autonomous passenger planes inching closer to takeoff
54:00 a fight against sludge…from NY Times
54:51 Mobileye post advocating simpler language for autonomy levels
56:47 Waymo named Super Bowl officials autonomous technology partner"
0:00 open
0:55 Autonomous chaos in San Francisco?"
6:28 National Safety Council marks anniversary of national roadway safety strategy
9:41 Tesla boosts production at Giga Shanghai & more
11:25 More SpaceX success
14:05 Mercedes launch of level 3 systems in U.S.
19:12 U.K. Unveils First "Fully" Autonomous Bus Service
23:11 Layoffs at Rivian
24:35 Data Centers on Wheels: Emissions From Computing Onboard Autonomous Vehicles
27:47 Ford boosts production of Mustang Mach E touting 0-60 thrills in press release
30:54 Justice Department urged to look at leaders of TuSimple and alleged transfer of tech to Chinese start-up "
0:00 open
1:00 Driverless Work Vehicles discussion
20:45 Stellantis Reaching for the Data Star
23:27 Winters can be cold, EVs like it hot
36:11 Tesla earnings, news and rebound
38:39 Layoffs hitting Waymo? And other tech companies too.
47:30 Ford's Blue Cruise top rated by Consumer Reports in active driver assistance

May 22-24, 2023 | Princeton University, Princeton, NJ

The objective of the 6th SmartDrivingCars Summit will be to put the eventual manufacturers of driverless passenger vehicles together with the eventual operators of transportation services to decide if there is a business to be made from delivering affordable mobility to a large segment our societies who are underserved by the current options: private cars and public transport.

It's already happening with military and work vehicles, with Oshkosh and Robotic Research, and John Deere, Caterpillar, Komatsu and others manufacturing driverless vehicles that are getting the jobs done in military operations, on farms, mines, warehouses, seaports, and airports, jobs where experienced drivers are too few in number or where driver safety cannot be ensured. They will be at the Summit during the sessions on Driverless Vehicles in the Line of Duty to explain how they have made the transition to building tools that safely meet the market requirements for both affordability and performance.

After twenty years of development, it's time for the companies that will build the vehicles and the organizations that will operate the services to take the leadership position. Sensor manufacturers and software developers have gone as far as they can go, and some of them have already had to drop out of the race. Car manufacturers and energy companies are making the same mistake they made twenty-five years ago when they said they had to wait for a battery breakthrough before they could build an electric car. There is a ready and sizeable market for an inexpensive transport solution that has the flexibility of a passenger car for people who cannot drive themselves or afford their own car.

We have focused too much on the equivalent of the battery solution, on the technology, and not on the need. At the SDC Summit in May, we will focus on the need and how to satisfy that need. Join us in Princeton to be part of making this happen. Alain

K. Karosec, March 30, "More than five years ago, a newly minted Waymo took the wraps off of what would become its first commercialized autonomous vehicle: a Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid minivan loaded with sensors and software.

Now, the minivan, a symbol of the early and hypey AV days, is headed for retirement as Waymo transitions its fleet (a must read) to the all-electric Jaguar I-Pace vehicles equipped with its fifth-generation self-driving system.

When the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid AV was first revealed, it might not have been what people expected from the former Google self-driving project turned Alphabet-owned business. The design wasn't ripped from the pages of a graphic sci-fi novel and it was hardly flashy. But the white minivan — highlighted with the same blue and green accent colors found on the Waymo logo — embodied the company's aim. Waymo wanted a friendly looking vehicle people would feel comfortable using….

Waymo never got close to the 62,000-minivan order it agreed to in 2018 as part of an expanded partnership with Fiat Chrysler. But the minivan did become a critical part of its commercialization plan and over its lifespan the fleet provided tens of thousands of rides to the public, according to the company. (Waymo has never revealed detailed figures of its minivan fleet beyond that its total global fleet is somewhere around 700 vehicles.)…" Read more

K. Pyle, April 3, "Opening up the workforce to those who physically wouldn't be able to do the jobs is one of the benefits of Caterpillar's latest generation of products. At CES2023, Alan Pumklin, Market Professional, Autonomy and Automation for Caterpillar, gave Viodi a tour of some of their Cat® Command offerings. In short, these solutions are making it possible to abstract the control and management of their mighty machines from the dirty and important work these amazing implements perform.

The products on display encompass remote control, semi-autonomous and autonomous solutions. Specifically,… ." Read more

K. Pyle, March 24, "If we're overlooking this population, we're losing out on a huge moneymaking opportunity," states Michele Lee, Senior Public Affairs Manager, Accessibility for Cruise. Speaking in the above interview, Lee echoes recent Cruise-funded research from the National Disability Institute (PDF) that found that the adoption of accessible Autonomous Vehicles by people with disabilities could increase employment by 9.1M and U.S. GDP by 3.8% ($868 billion).

It goes beyond the quantitative, however, as autonomous vehicles provide potential improvement in quality of life by providing greater freedom of movement for those who otherwise would have to depend upon others.1 In the above interview, there are clips of Lee demonstrating the accessibility of Cruise's Origin driverless vehicle.

Sasha Blair-Goldensohn adds that the opportunity is providing mobility for the next billion users. He points out that designing for accessibility helps people of all abilities, whether parents with strollers, tourists with luggage, or delivery companies. As he says,… ." Read more

M. Lewis, April 4, "Agricultural giant John Deere's new tech, ExactShot, enables farmers to use electric robots to plant and fertilize seeds at an incredibly fast and precise pace.

I'm at the John Deere Tech Summit in Austin, and Nancy Post, VP of embedded software and solutions, talked us through ExactShot, which is planting and fertilizing technology that gets hooked up to John Deere tractors and is all about precision, speed, and volume.

John Deere's speakers are all emphasizing the need to "do more with less." They assert that with the global population expected to grow from 8 billion to nearly 10 billion by 2050, farmers need to increase production by 60-70% on today's arable land.

So, citing labor shortages and tight growing time windows, the 186-year-old company is hot on output and automation. John Deere's folks acknowledge that climate change is making agriculture even more challenging, so efficient and sustainable agriculture for both small and large farmers is only going to help… " Read more

S. Doll, March 17, , "Apollo Go, tech company Baidu's robotaxi service, has received a permit to offer fully-driverless rides in Beijing, expanding its autonomous ride-hailing service to three major cities in China. Following the awarded permit, Baidu is now the first company in the entire world to offer fully-driverless rides to the over 21 million residents in China's capital city.

Baidu has previously been primarily known as a search engine giant in China, but has turned its focus toward EVs, AI, and autonomous driving technologies the past several years. In fact, its Apollo ecosystem has garnered over a hundred partnerships with various manufacturers and suppliers including Toyota, Ford, and Volkswagen.… " Read more

M. Lewis, April 4, "It is a blow that will resonate throughout the British aerospace industry for a long time.

Great Britain had bet on Virgin Orbit, the company of billionaire Sir Richard Branson, to become a space power. But these ambitions, which manifested themselves in the development of a satellite manufacturing industry, have just taken a huge blow.

The company is ceasing operations "for the foreseeable future" after failing to secure a funding lifeline, only five years after it was created, CEO Dan Hart told employees on March 30, according to CNBC.

"Unfortunately, we've not been able to secure the funding to provide a clear path for this company," Hart said, according to an audio recording of the meeting.… " Read more

S. Cao, April 4, "SpaceX could be targeting April 10 or April 11 to launch the maiden orbital flight of Starship, according to new clues from a NASA calendar, activities at SpaceX's test site in Boca Chica, Texas, and a tweet by Elon Musk.'

Starship's orbital flight is a hotly anticipated event for space enthusiasts and Musk fans in recent months. The two-stage rocket, standing at nearly 400 feet tall and designed to fly humans to Mars someday, will be the tallest spacecraft ever flown to Earth's orbit if the launch is successful.

SpaceX previously aimed at launching Starship in March and seemed to have coordinated a date with NASA, which deploys an aircraft called WB-57 to monitor spacecraft activities during missions like this. A placeholder for "SpaceX Starship launch" was seen on NASA's Airborne Science Program calendar in February but was later removed.

Over the weekend, NASA put two placeholders for WB-57 on April 10 and April 11 for imaging missions. WB-57 was the observing aircraft used in past Starship test flights to suborbital space, so the placeholders could be reserved for Starship's orbital launch.… " Read more

F. Maire, April 5, "This paper finds a sustainable energy economy is technically feasible and requires less investment and less material extraction than continuing today's unsustainable energy economy. While many prior studies have come to a similar conclusion, this study seeks to push the thinking forward related to material intensity, manufacturing capacity, and manufacturing investment required for a transition across all energy sectors worldwide..… " Read more

R. Maurer, April 4, "➤ Tesla production plan rumors for next-gen vehicle ➤ Tesla to expand FSD Beta in China? ➤ FSD Beta mileage accelerating ➤ China March sales ➤ Tesla opens in Turkey ➤ Model Y LR expanded to new countries ➤ Price cuts in Australia and New Zealand ➤ Tesla continues searching for litigation team members ➤ Earth Day contest ➤ Brand Finance interview: • Tesla is the Fast... 0:00 Intro / TSLA

Fridays 12:00-13:00 Boston Time Open to the public

Registration: https://mit.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJIoduytqDsiE9ZKHfZ9Mf1hHIzSCx-TxIEq

Hosted by Prof. Jinhua Zhao

Save the Date:

Monday Evening, May 22 -> Wednesday 5pm, May 24, 2023

August. 9 & 10

On-line Conference

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SafeDrivingCars: Those in which the automated function are explicitly designed to not only substantially reduce driver misbehavior by constraining the performance characteristic such as incorporating speed governors that only permit excessive speeds in geofenced locations such as Watkins Glen International and stretches of the German Autobahn, but also automatically intervene to prevent crashes; thus, extending what is done today with anti-lock brakes and electronic stability control.
SelfDrivingCars: Those which allow the driver for some extended period of time to be "feet-off" the brake & throttle, delivering to the driver substantial comfort & convenience, but also "hands-off" the wheel for shorter periods of time providing a little more comfort & convenience. Absolutely required are "eyes & brain" focused the human task of driving, ready to intervene should the automated driver begin to fail.
DriverlessCars: Those which serve only passengers and/or good from trip start, through finish. Luckily, the notion that individuals might own such vehicles for personal use and/or be able to "AirB&B" them for others to get from A to B is now realized by essentially everyone as exceedingly naïve. The Mercedes booth at this year's CES showed no sign of its Mercedes Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion | LIVE PREMIERE CES 2015. Yea!

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Hawkins, Oct. 27, "When Ford announced yesterday that it was pulling its support for Argo AI, the autonomous driving startup it had financed since 2017, it cited as one of its reasons a belief that driver-assist technology will have more near-term payoffs....." Read more Hmmmm... I agree with Andrew, as I stated above. Alain

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Tesla FSD Beta V 10.69 Dominates Downtown Driving
FSD Beta 10.69 (2022.16.3.10) Release Notes
FSDBeta v10.69 - HEAVY TRAFFIC - Unprotected Left Turns... Amazing that such turns are legal let alone FSD's routing algorithm deicing that this is on the best way to go. Safety must not be part of its objective function C'mon Elon.
FSD Beta V 10.69 Initial Impressions. My impression is that 10.69 drove better than this tester who seemed intent on driving aggressively and not wanting to yield to pedestrians in crosswalks. Hopefully no one at Tesla pays attention to this guy.
Bullish News From Giga Berlin Tours, Production Rumors, Terrible Toyota
The Tesla Semi Is Officially Here!

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These system outrageously reduce crash probabilities, and/or
maybe some, but we're probably not much luckier.
very few of the cars in use during that "10" month period had Level 2 capabilities, and/or
unfortunately, the VIN number doesn't identify these cars and only Tesla announces how many sold (I may have missed the reportings)
very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the Level 2 features, and/or
likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of its level 2 features but does so only in aggregate terms that don't allow for correction of sampling bias associated with engagement in "easy" driving conditions versus "challenging" driving conditions.
enormous under counting
likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either "know all" or sample effectively because of their OtA monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone else has conveniently kept their heads in the sand. Mercedes didn't report any; however, during that period I think my Intelligent Cruise Control and Lane Centering were engaged when I hit a deer. Mercedes must not have been watching me, I didn't report it and I didn't get the memo that informed me to do anything.

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those that don't already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.
those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.

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PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles

Cost:

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