11.19 - Proff Of Market

February 09, 2022Newsletter archive →

Click or tap if you trust this link.">Friday, May 12, 2023

19th edition of the 11th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

Waymo doubles robotaxi service area in Phoenix in bid to grow driverless trips tenfold

K. Korosec, May 4, "Waymo is doubling its commercial robotaxi service area in the Phoenix metro area, an expansion that will add new suburbs and connect previously isolated sections of the sprawling and car-dependent desert city.… " Read more

Hmmmm… This has the potential to be important news.

Phoenix has been a great "Proof of Technology/Safety" for Waymo. Safe, driverless mobility has been established in a substantial Operational Design Domain (ODD). The objective of that "Proof of Technology/Safety" was: operate safely throughout the ODD without attendants. The performance metric was essentially no disengagements and essentially no crashes throughout the ODD with an attendant on board. Then pull the attendant and demonstrate essentially no disengagements and essentially no crashes throughout the ODD.

Proof of Market requires the service be attractive enough such that sufficient individuals choose Waymo One as the means by which they go from point A to point B, leaving at or about time t. For Waymo One to be the chosen by an individual means it had to be perceived by the traveler as being THE best way to go for this trip at this time. Not the 5th best, or the 3rd best or even the 2nd best. It had to be THE best for that individual for that {A,B, t}.

Users of Waymo One come from an addressable market made up of trips that would be taken by conventional means, had Waymo One not existed, plus the inducement of new trips because Waymo One is so much better than all other options so as to make the destination + the travel so desirable that the individual decides to make the trip rather than not go.

To become #1 in the eyes of a potential customer, Waymo One has many positives:

• It is safe: OK, but not substantially safer than other ways Arizonians have among their choice set as to how to travel. Likely not enough to elevate Waymo One above their current way to go. So safety by itself is not a differentiator. In economic jargon, the demand elasticity of safety is essentially zero at current safety levels.
• The technology: OK; however, this is a "one and done" greatness that generates a "selfie" on the first use and little perceived benefit thereafter. The cost of customer acquisition is so non-trivial that it needs to be focused on repeat customers and not "one & done"s; where the service is rarely perceived to be better than one's own car or an expense account ride hailing, taxi or limousine trip.
• Service is inexpensive and can be made affordable with vehicle productivity and scale: Great! This is an attribute that is really important at the current moment to folks who don't have access to their own car and who are paying their own way.
• Service is high-quality in that its flexibility can allow it to respond to a customer's demand rather than having the customer change their desire in order to correlate to a schedule and a route: Great, especially to those for which affordability is important so there isn't need to trade off price with service. Moreover, the service can be made even better in the future such that even car owners may change their car-buying behavior because Waymo's service has become so good and so affordable that they pivot.

My recommendation would be for Waymo to concentrate their "Proof of Market" on serving customers who currently don't have access to their own car, can't readily get a ride from someone, and will appreciate how inexpensively Waymo One can afford to deliver a safe, high-quality ride. Once focused on serving the mobility desires of this market segment, then Waymo One can pass the "Proof of Market" test by achieving a vehicle productivity of 100 person trips per day per vehicle. That productivity allows them to scale and be relevant and profitable. Is it any surprise that I am suggesting they work with us in Trenton and on other MOVES-style projects? 😊 Alain

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 317 / PodCast 317

F. Fishkin, May 12, "Smart Driving Cars episode 317 Waymo, Cruise, Elon and more. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest on autonomy, mobility and more.

• 0:00 open
• 0:30 Waymo expands robotaxi service
• 6:26 Lyft shares struggle
• 10:45 GM Cruise expanding service in Texas
• 17:30 Neighborhood animals visit podcast
• 18:45 Time to go beyond proof of technology
• 23:52 Nuro pulls back
• 25:55 And TuSimple threatened with delisting
• 26:40 Consumer Reports' Chris Harto on can the grid handle EVs
• 32:13 Elon Musk finds new CEO for Twitter
• 33:00 Musk's Boring Company expanding operations in Las Vegas
• 37:12 Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit postponed, EcoMotion taking place in Tel Aviv
• 0:00 open
• 0:49 Grayson Brulte Road to Autonomy selects S&P Dow Jones for new indices.
• 2:57 Autonomy will drive growth for range of companies and industries
• 9:05 Perception that it has been a rough year for companies in the space
• 11:00 What about using the technology to provide mobility for all?
• 26:46 Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit hits logistics challenges
• 29:45 Jalopnik reports on autonomous cars getting in way of emergency responders
• 33:55 Kodiak says it will have autonomous truck in fleet next year
• 35:46 Will autonomous trucks cost jobs?
• 38:15 Grayson invokes elevator analogy
• 0:00 open
• 0:49 Alain thoughts on his being there for the inaugural Starship launch and what was learned
• 5:55 The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena on new book coming co-authored with Alain on Mobility for the Non-mobile and what will be coming at the May Smart Driving Cars Summit
• 14:14 Alain experiences lack of mobility in Texas for the Starship launch.
• 22:20 Changes coming after The Dispatcher reader poll
• 26:50 New pollution guidelines from the EU and the EPA 40:30 Musings section of The Dispatcher has guest author this month
• 42:30 Cruise self driving taxis now operating around the clock in San Francisco
• 44:44 Cruise meanwhile had loss of 561 million dollars in last quarter
• 48:00 Michael on evolution of buses
• 56:35 More on the upcoming Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit
• 57:30 Motortrend reports BYD says self driving technology "basically impossible".
• 0:00 open
• 1:00 Cruise recall
• 11:00 Jalopnik report on Waymo problems with San Francisco fog
• 15:00 Didi Robotaxis
• 20:45 TWU opposing waiver for Waymo and Aurora
• 24:12 EPA unveils new standards pushing EVs
• 32:00 Tesla Daily
• 32:43 Upcoming Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit
• 46:30 SpaceX readies Starship
• 48:30 Musk launching new AI company
• 0:00 open
• 1:10 Helen Pan outlines status of Baidu's autonomous mobility efforts in China
• 3:50 Pan says Baidu Apollo has paying customers
• 11:52 Alain asks how Baidu is operating the services
• 21:07 What are hours of operation and where are vehicles able to operate
• 28:14 Pan outlines advantages of autonomous mobility and the business model
• 50:38 Helen on Apollo going Open Source with Apollo Open Platform
• 55:00 Apollo's hardware & software integration + OEM partnerships
• 58:00 Who will operated the service?
• 1:01:00 6th Annual Smart Driving Cars Summit is approaching
• 1:03:20 Alain on object of summit
• 0:00 open
• 0:45 Future of Life Institute calls for pause in further development of AI
• 27:00 EU Big 3 Countries want to freeze the ICE ban
• 37:00 Mind your own business but know who your customer really is.. railroads, cars.. mobility
• 1:04 upcoming Smart Driving Cars Summit
• 1:04:30 Ford CEO says new electric truck will allow you to nap, use phone, on highways in good weather
• 1:04:57 Bill Gates posts about going for a ride in a self-driving vehicle in the U.K.
• 0:00 F. Fishkin, March 24, "Where does autonomous mobility go from here? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore...plus Ford's EV losses, SMART grants fail to fund autonomous mobility, Waymo, drones & more.open
• 0:35 Princeton basketball
• 1:25 More thoughts in aftermath of ITU 2023 Future Networked Car ."Symposium. Where does autonomous mobility go from here?
• 29:26 SMART grants from DOT fail to fund autonomous mobility
• 31:55 Ford's EV losses
• 32:57 Ford updates on BlueOval City mega site in West Tennessee
• 34:46 Waymo takes on task of writing the safety case for Avs. Alain emphasizes that companies shouldn't compete on safety
• 39:25 The Street headline… Four reasons self driving cars, not drones, will deliver your packages.
• 0:00 open
• 0:53 Princeton sports!
• 1:40 ITU Symposium
• 4:35 Chat GPT
• 6:00 Missy Cummings at ITU
• 9:38 Safety systems not interconnected
• 13:45 ITU Symposium takeaways
• 30:40 UN regulations & autonomous vehicles Cruise and more
• 40:29 National Disability Institute report
• 45:11 Krogers and Gatik test autonomous trucks in Texas
• 54:30 Baidu reported offering driverless rides in Beijing
• 0:00 open
• 0:40 GM Ultra Cruise Chief Engineer Jason Ditman introduction
• 1:55 How did development go during Covid?
• 4:32 Announcement that Ultra Cruise will first arrive on 2024 Cadillac Celestiq
• 8:45 Alain comments on Super Cruise
• 9:50 How does Ultra Cruise availability figure into route planning
• 13:40 Why is hands off is important and not feet off
• 16:45 If using intelligent cruise control…why does it disengage when brakes are tapped?
• 25:29 System is separate from automated emergency braking…how do they talk to each other
• 28:43 Response to Missy Cummings headlines that people using automated systems involved in crashes were speeding more often than people driving without automated systems engaged.
• 33:24 GM Cruise says focused on cutting costs this year according to Reuters
• 37:25 NHTSA opens probe, reportedly, into self certification of the test procedures at Zoox
• 41:08 Embark winding down operations, laying off most employees
• 44:41 Kudos to GM Ultra Cruise team
• 49:24 Here comes Alain's spring break
• 0:00 open
• 0:44 Waymo Driver performance report
• 14:15 More layoffs at Waymo
• 15:00 Tesla Investor Day-what we learned
• 16:18 Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley impressed with Tesla Investor Day
• 23:05 Ford creates Latitude AI after demise of Argo AI
• 29:40 Guidehouse Insights research report
• 34:35 Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association seeks modernization of vehicle exemption process
• 39:05 Diane Gutierrez Scaccetti to chair Transportation Research Board Executive Committee
• 0:00 open
• 1:00 Is it time we admitted the world will change: the de-industrial revolution has begun
• 21:00 Impact on transportation, automakers
• 28:40 Run flat tires..from Michelin and more
• 35:25 GM's waits for NHTSA okay for deployment of Cruise Origin autonomous mobility
• 46:00 Locomation denies reports of its demise
• 47:08 The Insider report on Tesla… and upcoming master plan. Alain's comments not what were reported.
• 0:00 open
• 1:00 Missy Cumming pushing for limits on autonomous tech
• 9:30 hands free, feet free driving dangers
• 15:00 Should tech be used to block speeding and reckless driving?
• 32:00 Issues with intelligent cruise control
• 40:30 Is the battle for cars that would forbid speeding winnable?
• 44:00 Are vehicle safety systems not communicating with each other?
• 50:00 Is the problem with vehicles identifying stationary objects being addressed?
• 55:20 Zoox begins carrying passengers on public roads in vehicles without steering wheels
• 57:17 Rob Mauer's Tesla Daily
• 58:30 Ken Pyle's ViodiTV compiles autonomous round up from CES
• 59:25 Brad Templeton launches Robocars podcast
• 59:48 Alain will lead off MIT Mobility Forum series Friday
• 0:00 open
• 0:48 Active Driving Assistance Evaluation Report from Consumer Reports
• 2:53 Ford's BlueCruise ousts GM as top in ADAS
• 10:33 What is the value of being able to drive hands free and pedal free
• 16:40 Why doesn't the technology prevent speeding and misbehavior
• 21:08 Are consumers using the safety features..
• 27:14 Pro active braking assist coming to more vehicles and is a great feature
• 36:00 Should there be a light or mechanism that shows others whether cars are being controlled by human or automated system?
• 43:43 Are there things that carmakers are really getting right or really getting wrong?
• 51:00 Corvette on top in CR report on vehicle owner satisfaction
• 52:43 Navya
• 53:00 Axios reports autonomous passenger planes inching closer to takeoff
• 54:00 a fight against sludge…from NY Times
• 54:51 Mobileye post advocating simpler language for autonomy levels

• 56:47 Waymo named Super Bowl officials autonomous technology partner"

• SafeDrivingCars: Those in which the automated function are explicitly designed to not only substantially reduce driver misbehavior by constraining the performance characteristic such as incorporating speed governors that only permit excessive speeds in geofenced locations such as Watkins Glen International and stretches of the German Autobahn, but also automatically intervene to prevent crashes; thus, extending what is done today with anti-lock brakes and electronic stability control.

• SelfDrivingCars: Those which allow the driver for some extended period of time to be "feet-off" the brake & throttle, delivering to the driver substantial comfort & convenience, but also "hands-off" the wheel for shorter periods of time providing a little more comfort & convenience. Absolutely required are "eyes & brain" focused the human task of driving, ready to intervene should the automated driver begin to fail.

• DriverlessCars: Those which serve only passengers and/or good from trip start, through finish. Luckily, the notion that individuals might own such vehicles for personal use and/or be able to "AirB&B" them for others to get from A to B is now realized by essentially everyone as exceedingly naïve. The Mercedes booth at this year's CES showed no sign of its Mercedes Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion | LIVE PREMIERE CES 2015. Yea!

Mobility 360 | May 22 -> 24

Click or tap if you trust this link.">Friday, January 27, 2023

Click or tap if you trust this link.">Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Click or tap if you trust this link.">Friday, January 13, 2023

Click or tap if you trust this link.">Sunday, January 8, 2023

Hawkins, Oct. 27, "When Ford announced yesterday that it was pulling its support for Argo AI, the autonomous driving startup it had financed since 2017, it cited as one of its reasons a belief that driver-assist technology will have more near-term payoffs....." Read more

Hmmmm... I agree with Andrew, as I stated above. Alain

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• Tesla FSD Beta V 10.69 Dominates Downtown Driving
• FSD Beta 10.69 (2022.16.3.10) Release Notes
• FSDBeta v10.69 - HEAVY TRAFFIC - Unprotected Left Turns... Amazing that such turns are legal let alone FSD's routing algorithm deicing that this is on the best way to go. Safety must not be part of its objective function C'mon Elon.
• FSD Beta V 10.69 Initial Impressions. My impression is that 10.69 drove better than this tester who seemed intent on driving aggressively and not wanting to yield to pedestrians in crosswalks. Hopefully no one at Tesla pays attention to this guy.
• Bullish News From Giga Berlin Tours, Production Rumors, Terrible Toyota
• The Tesla Semi Is Officially Here!

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• These system outrageously reduce crash probabilities, and/or

• maybe some, but we're probably not much luckier.

• very few of the cars in use during that "10" month period had Level 2 capabilities, and/or

• unfortunately, the VIN number doesn't identify these cars and only Tesla announces how many sold (I may have missed the reportings)

• very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the Level 2 features, and/or

• likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of its level 2 features but does so only in aggregate terms that don't allow for correction of sampling bias associated with engagement in "easy" driving conditions versus "challenging" driving conditions.

• enormous under counting

• likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either "know all" or sample effectively because of their OtA monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone else has conveniently kept their heads in the sand. Mercedes didn't report any; however, during that period I think my Intelligent Cruise Control and Lane Centering were engaged when I hit a deer. Mercedes must not have been watching me, I didn't report it and I didn't get the memo that informed me to do anything.

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• those that don't already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.
• those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.

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PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles

Cost:

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