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SmartDrivingCar.com/11.28-CaudillCorallary-072423
28th
edition of the 11th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
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Exclusive: Disability advocates push for robotaxi expansion
M. Dickey, July 21, "San Francisco's LightHouse for the Blind and Visually Impaired is among a group of community organizations urging state regulators to approve Waymo's permit that would enable the self-driving car company to receive payments for its around-the-clock
service in San Francisco.
Why it matters: Community organizations that advocate on behalf of people with disabilities argue autonomous vehicles are safer and provide more accessibility and independence than traditional ride-hailing services, and hope the permit will encourage expanded
services.
What's happening: In an open letter posted Friday, more than a dozen community advocacy groups urged the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to "approve Waymo's permit at the earliest possible
opportunity," arguing driverless cars "can ensure this next generation of transportation is more inclusive than ever."
In addition to LightHouse, other groups include the San Francisco LGBT Center, Self-Help for the Elderly and the Epilepsy Foundation of Northern California.
Read more
Hmmmm… Excellent! Thrilled to see that communities are advocating for MORE Waymo/driverless services, and that their requests are getting at least some media attention. We are
hoping that many more groups follow suit. Wouldn’t it be great if companies like Waymo focused on the needs of similar community groups AND did a better job publicizing their progress in terms of delivering safe, affordable demand-responsive/high-quality
rides? All too often the stories intended to catch the public eye are written by those who don’t actually need a ride and who don’t seem to care about the potential of driverless services to disrupt the giving rides market for the betterment of society [see
below]. The fact that “more than a dozen” advocacy groups are joining to lobby for Waymo’s permitting is proof that they (and Cruise) meet the
Caudill Corollary: “Proof-of-Community Value & Sustainability”. Alain
[log in to unmask]" align="left" hspace="12" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_5">SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
326 /
PodCast 326 San Francisco robotaxis gain support from disability advocates
F. Fishkin, July 24, “Some disability advocates are voicing support for expanded robotaxis in San Francisco, a SF paper pits Uber against Waymo in a race, Cruise begins testing in Miami, Tesla
begins production of DOJO supercomputer and talks to a major automaker about licensing Full Self Driving. That and more on episode 326 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
0:28 Disability advocates push for robotaxi expansion in San Francisco
8:08 San Francisco Standard pits Uber against Waymo in race. Clickbait.
12:40 Cruise begins initial testing for robotaxis in Miami
18:49 NY Times reports .. Watching for the Bus Stop Gallery
21:19 IATR Annual Conference in fall will have Waymo as an official sponsor
24:30 John Deere Moves Further in the Field of Autonomy
25:36 DOT accepting applications for the Reconnecting Communities and Neighborhoods Program
28:00 Tesla begins production of DOJO Supercomputer
31:10 Tesla in discussion to license full self driving to another major automaker
36:20 Washington Post piece on Tesla owners using steering wheel weights
************
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Watching for the Bus Stop Gallery
J. Finkel, July 19, “… Starting Aug. 9, the artist [Felipe Baeza], whose home base is Brooklyn, will be giving people something to think about during their own public transportation journey, or purgatory as the case may be. As part of
a Public Art Fund program designed to reach people where they live or commute, Baeza will have eight of his mixed-media, collagelike paintings reproduced on some
400 JCDecaux bus shelters in New York, Boston and Chicago as well as Querétaro and Léon in Mexico. They will also appear on digital kiosks and newsstands in Mexico City.
“People assume I don’t drive because of my illegal history,” said Baeza, who immigrated from Celaya, Mexico, undocumented, when he was seven and now has DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) status. “I just never had the desire
or interest. I like walking or taking the bus or train. Navigating a city by public transportation changes the way you experience the landscape, the world.”…”
Read more
Hmmmm… What an ideal person to work with communities to make their aTaxi kiosks cherished neighborhood assets. And this initiative aligns perfectly with the MOVES vision of empowering
those who actually live in MOVES ODDs to design the kiosks in their neighborhoods. Alain
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We Raced a Waymo Against an Uber. Here’s Which One Was Faster
M. Kupfer, July 21, “There’s just something fascinating about autonomous vehicles.
These eerie white chariots of the tech revolution now cruise the streets of San Francisco, ferrying passengers around town or simply circulating through the city, totally empty of people.
Reactions are mixed. Some San Franciscans are excited about the prospect of a driverless robotaxi taking them out for a night on the town. Others oppose the idea. Some are “coning”
the Waymo and Cruise cars to protest their presence in the city.
Regardless, the robotaxis are here. …
But how do they stand up functionally to the previous “innovation” in hired vehicles: so-called “ride-share” apps like Uber and Lyft? Two journalists from The Standard, Matthew Kupfer and Han Li, decided to find
out. …Great, Matt &Han agree as I editorialized last week: Waymo and Cruise have passed with flying colors the Kornhauser “Turing Proof-of-Technology” test!
…
.... They planned an itinerary that took them from Franklin Square in Potrero Hill to Sunnyside Playground, onward to Devil’s Teeth Baking Company in the Outer Sunset, and then to the famous Painted Ladies near
Alamo Square. Matt took a Waymo, while Han got an Uber.. … Nice test. Random ODs at random times. Not walkable and likely unserved by public transit. If you don’t have your car to drive, you need a ride.
The results? If you want to get somewhere quickly, Uber is still the way to go.
… What??? “ Quickly” is the definitive aspiration? Maybe by those where affordability doesn’t matter or have never faced rejection because of what they look like. Whatever??? .
…
The Verdict
Both Uber and Waymo offered smooth rides across San Francisco
om… Enough said! Fantastic endorsement!...
. But despite the novelty of riding in a driverless vehicle, Waymo just couldn’t keep up with Uber. The driverless cars avoid the freeway, and the wait times can often be long.
Although Waymo currently is not charging users for rides, its projected prices were also higher than those of Uber.
Here’s how the timing and price of the two options compare….”
" Read more
Hmmmm… Much as I dislike dignifying click-bait journalism, there are some important takeaways here worth interrogating.
Good news: These two individuals present as though they can already get around town quite well, and express no hesitation to take a series of driverless rides. Implicitly they trust that Waymo is safe. This
is huge! Moreover, they reported no service disruptions, awkward drop-offs or pickups, or any glitches whatsoever. Good job, Waymo!
More Good news: Matt and Han’s primary complaint, time, [time spent waiting for a vehicle, and journey time, given these vehicles are not yet utilizing freeways] is/will soon be completely irrelevant
Bad news: the media continue to treat driverless vehicles as a “novelty” rather than imagine and promote their incredible potential as mobility machines for large segments of our communities who do not have
on-demand access to or who cannot operate personal vehicles.
Waymo is trying to be in the business of providing safe, high-quality, affordable, sustainable rides to people who need rides to improve their everyday lives. Hans & Matt are looking for thrill rides. Let
them go to Six Flags .
C’mon man! Alain
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Cruise starts initial robotaxi testing in Miami
R. Bellan, July 20, "Cruise, the self-driving arm of General Motors, has begun initial testing and data collection in Miami, the company said in a tweet Wednesday.
“Phase 1 is to familiarize our fleet with additional, diverse road conditions while collecting data,” the company said.
Cruise declined to provide any further information, like what Phase 2 entails and when it will begin, how many Cruise vehicles are currently in Miami and when the company plans to start testing.
The news comes two months after
Cruise expanded to Houston and Dallas, where the AV company has begun supervised testing and is on track to begin driverless ride-hail service for members of the public “soon,” according to a Cruise spokesperson. Supervised testing just means there’s a
human safety driver in the car. Cruise will switch to driverless testing before opening up the service for riders....
Read more
Hmmmm… Nice! Hopefully they'll come north to New Jersey, where we have customers, and last winter Trenton had zero snow days, just like Miami. Alain
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IATR is Proud to Announce that WAYMO is an Official Sponsor for the 36th Annual Conference
in Scottsdale, Arizona this Fall
Staff, July 20 , "...As a sponsor of the IATR 36th Annual Conference, Waymo is excited to collaborate with industry leaders and policymakers to shape the future of transportation. Together, we are forging new paths and creating a safer,
more efficient, and sustainable world for all."
Read more
Hmmmm… Congratulations, Matt! Alain
[log in to unmask]"> John
Deere moves further in the field of autonomy
Staff, July 6, “Since its Precision Ag Group was started in 1993, John Deere has steadily increased the level of automation in its products, edging further and further forward along the path to full autonomy. It’s now closer than ever to
that goal, thanks to technologies being applied across multiple solutions within its Precision Ag portfolio.
“As we talk about increasing levels of automation leading to ultimate autonomy, we’ve been preparing for the autonomous tractor solution… since we started with AutoTrac back in 2002,” Matt Olson, Precision Ag product marketing manager,
John Deere, said of the company’s field guidance system. “We started in 2002 making customers more aware of the value of precision and how overlap control can really help not only increase the productivity per day, but also decrease the costs… relative to
the inputs of their operation. Olson is interviewed in Diesel Progress, the interview gives a good outlook on the plans of John
Deere….” Read more
Hmmmm… Driverless Proof-of-Market in ODD exclusively on private property where Proof-of-Technology is Q.E.D. Alain
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Autonomous Taxis May Have The Most Impact On GDP Of Any Innovation In History
T. Keeney, July 14, “Autonomous vehicles could be one of the most productive innovations of all time, impacting global gross domestic product (GDP) by approximately 20% over the next decade, according to ARK’s estimates shown below. Previously,
ARK has shown that autonomous cars potentially could reduce[1] accident
rates and cut[2] transportation costs. In this piece, we examine the outsized impact that autonomous taxis
could have on the global economy. …”
Read more Hmmmm… Maybe? Although, the biggest impact may well come from serving l;atent demand… Giving people safe, affordable,
high-quality rides to improve their lives instead of staying home. Alain
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Biden-Harris Administration Announces New, Streamlined Funding Application Process
for Infrastructure Projects That Reconnect Communities
Press release, July 5, “Today, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg announced that the Department of Transportation is now taking applications for the Reconnecting Communities and Neighborhoods (RCN) Program, an unprecedented effort
to build good transportation infrastructure to reconnect communities to economic opportunities.
The streamlined program, which combines two different programs created in President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, will make it easier to submit an application and increase opportunity for communities
that are seeking funding for projects that address harm from past infrastructure planning decisions, accelerate equitable community revitalization, and improve access to everyday destinations… “
Read more
Hmmmm… Sounds perfect to fund kiosk and sidewalk infrastructure for MOVES-style aTaxi deployments in the many communities that need rides. It could also help fix local street
infrastructure where safety of the affordable, equitable and sustainable driverless mobility deployments is most challenged. Alain
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Tesla starts production of Dojo supercomputer to train driverless cars
Andrew Hawkins, July 19, “Tesla says it has started production of its Dojo supercomputer to train its fleet of autonomous vehicles.
In its second quarter earnings report for 2023, the company outlined “four main technology pillars” needed to “solve vehicle autonomy at scale: extremely large real-world dataset, neural net training, vehicle hardware and vehicle software.”
“We are developing each of these pillars in-house,” the company said in its report. “This month, we are taking a step towards faster and cheaper neural net training with the start of production of our Dojo training computer..”…”
Read more
Hmmmm… I am such a fanboy of Dojo. The choke point of current approaches to AI is the solving the optimization problem that finds the values of the coefficients that gets a perfect
score for the training set (the global optimum). Dojo may be the tool that does that best. If so, Tesla wins! Alain
[log in to unmask]">Tesla
in discussion to license Full Self-Driving software to another automaker
Andrew Hawkins, July 19, “Tesla is in “discussion” to license its Full Self-Driving (FSD) driver-assist technology to another major automaker, Elon Musk said in an earnings call Wednesday. He did not reveal the name of the company, though
he did say that licensing FSD was always part of the plan.
“We’re not trying to keep this to ourselves,” Musk said on the call. “We’re more than happy to license it to others.”
Musk has spoken about licensing FSD to competitors in the past. Last month, he tweeted that “Tesla aspires to be as helpful as possible to other car companies” — adding,
“Also happy to license Autopilot/FSD or other Tesla technology.”…” Read more
Hmmmm… Why not? MobilEye licenses theirs. Maybe Elon will spin off FSD and compete directly with MobilEye. That would be interesting. Dojo could be a difference maker. Alain
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Tesla Earnings Worse Than We Thought?
Rob Mauer, July 21, "➤ TSLA stock drops after Tesla earnings report and call
➤ Further discussion on earning report
➤ Analyst reactions
➤ FSD transferability update
➤ Distribution center
➤ Twitter subpoena
Read more
Hmmmm… Interesting! Oh well, shows how little I know. Alain
[log in to unmask]">Podcast:
Tesla Cybertruck update, TSLA earnings, F150 Lightning price cut, and more
F. Lambert, July 21, “On the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss the Tesla Cybertruck update, the TSLA earnings,
Ford slashing the price of the F150 Lightning, and more... ";
Read more
Hmmmm… Interesting! Alai
Tesla owners are using steering-wheel weights to drive hands-free
F. Siddiqui, July 7, “ The devices are marketed for a variety of innocuous uses — a cellphone holder, for instance, or a safety hammer. One promises to relieve
shoulder pain. Others ditch the pretext and list simply as “wheel weights” or “wheel knobs.”
They all have a common purpose: to let Tesla drivers take their hands off the wheel.
Steering wheel weights have become a popular commodity as Tesla has expanded its “Full Self-Driving” technology from around 12,000 vehicles to more than 400,000 over the past year. While the electric car manufacturer has adopted measures
to discourage their use, the devices have been involved in at least two recent traffic incidents.
In March, a Tesla plowed without slowing into a teenager getting off a school bus in North Carolina, police said, causing severe injuries…. “
Read more
Hmmmm… This is just tabloid click-bait!
Sure some totally irresponsible individual can probably figure out a way to circumvent eye trackers; however, with over-the air updating, Tesla wins that “nuclear
arms race”. Plus, insurance companies can ensure that no one misbehaves in this way twice by revoking their coverage for modifying the operation of the steering wheel causing their first incident. Alain
AS far as I've gotten
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Past the limit: Studying how often drivers speed in San Francisco and Phoenix
The Waymo Team, July 11, “Speeding is one of the leading causes of death on the road. In 2020, speeding was a contributing factor in 11,258 deaths and 308,013 injuries, accounting for nearly one-third of all traffic fatalities and 13% of
injuries in the U.S., according to the NHTSA. Safety initiatives such as Vision Zero have been instrumental in helping cities design streets, set speed limits, and implement policies to reduce speeding and lessen the likelihood and forcefulness of crashes.
The Waymo Driver can help achieve that important goal.
We recently analyzed the aggregated speeds of cars on the streets of San Francisco and Phoenix, and our study revealed that speeding is, unfortunately, a very common behavior. During the 10-day study period, we observed vehicles speeding up to almost half (47%)
of the time, including instances of extreme speeding with cars going more than 25 mph over the posted speed limit. This shows a disturbingly high percentage of people ignoring the posted speed limit and putting themselves and others at risk. We are sharing
our findings to help shed light on how pervasive this safety issue is and Waymo’s role in supporting safer streets.
Unlike humans, the Waymo Driver is designed to follow applicable speed limits. Our Driver can also detect the speed of other vehicles on the road. Doing so helps the Waymo Driver predict the likely next maneuvers of the vehicles around it and respond accordingly.
This has important safety benefits: for example, if the Waymo Driver detects a car accelerating instead of slowing down for a red light, it will prepare to yield to it.
Speeding is one of the leading causes of death on the road. In 2020, speeding was a contributing factor in 11,258 deaths and 308,013 injuries, accounting for nearly one-third of all traffic fatalities and 13% of injuries in the U.S., according
to the NHTSA. Safety initiatives such as Vision Zero have been instrumental in helping cities design streets, set speed limits, and implement policies to reduce speeding and lessen the likelihood and forcefulness of crashes. The Waymo Driver can help achieve
that important goal.
We recently analyzed the aggregated speeds of cars on the streets of San Francisco and Phoenix, and our study revealed that speeding is, unfortunately, a very common behavior. During the 10-day study period, we observed vehicles speeding up to almost half (47%)
of the time, including instances of extreme speeding with cars going more than 25 mph over the posted speed limit. This shows a disturbingly high percentage of people ignoring the posted speed limit and putting themselves and others at risk. We are sharing
our findings to help shed light on how pervasive this safety issue is and Waymo’s role in supporting safer streets...."
Read more
Hmmmm… A stark, substantive, data-supported revelation about what most of us already know so well from just driving around. It is what every highway patrol officer monitoring
traffic speed knows from looking at the display of
speed and radar guns. Thank you for divulging summaries of the data that enables the safe operation of the Waymo driver while clearly revealing the misbehavior of some human drivers.
Inrix and others have been harvesting speed data from various sources for almost 20 years. They know this. As does US DoT who implicitly has chosen to tolerate it.
In order for me, or any of us, to drive safely, I/we must sense the environment around us. We measure the speed of the cars that we pass, drive along or pass us as well as assess qualitatively the driving
behaviors of each. The Waymo and Cruise drivers also sense the environment around each of their cars. The "only" difference is they do it quantitatively, precisely and places those values in memory for future recall. Consequently, they know and can precisely
recall the behavior patterns of drivers around as well as themselves. They know when they misbehave and know the extent to which others misbehave, vandalize, cause mischief and/or provide assistance. I applaud Waymo for the posting of his data sourced information.
Alain
[log in to unmask]">
Waymo And Cruise Push Back In Battle With San Francisco
B. Templeton, July 14, “The annual TRB ARTS self-driving conference is the oldest conference in the field, and it took place in San Francisco this week. The hot topic was surely the brewing battle between the city of San Francisco and the
two companies doing robotaxi pilots in that city, Waymo and Cruise. While there was no direct debate between the parties, the conference was opened by Jeffrey Tumlin, head of the San Francisco MUNI transit agency which included a fair bit of complaint about
problems with the robotaxis. The reaction from Cruise and Waymo speakers was less confrontational, but nonetheless included some smoke from the battle.
At the same time, Cruise this week ran full page ads in major newspapers describing the bad safety record of human drivers and stating that Cruise vehicles were doing much better. Waymo has said this in the past, and earlier in the week released a study they
did of just how much it is that people speed. While everybody knows that speeding is very common, Waymo vehicles are always watching the roads in detail and were able to quantify that typically half of all cars are speeding, some doing as much as double the
limit. Waymo and Cruise cars do not speed — though there is considerable debate over whether they should at least try to match the typical speed of traffic, even if that means speeding. At present, companies are wary of programming their vehicles to speed
the way people do, even if that means better road citizenship.
San Francisco is frustrated by various incidents where robotaxis had stalled on the streets, sometimes blocking transit vehicles, or had bad interactions with emergency crews, delaying them on their way or getting confused at emergency scenes. Initial reports
of these incidents were extremely rare, but the city claims the numbers have increased a lot recently, and they demand that the companies provide data on just how often things are happening.
The real frustration, though is that the city does not have authority to regulate the roads — that belongs to the state, including the DMV and the public utilities commission. General feeling is that allowing each city to set its own rules of the road and regulation
of services on the road would result in an unworkably complex regulatory regime. As such, the city has been limited to writing letters to the California PUC, asking them to scale back robotaxi operations, and to deny the requests of Waymo and Cruise to expand
their pilot service.….” Read more
Hmmmm… Thank you, Brad, for putting out one of the few internet reports that I could find that made any mention of what I found to be an extremely good conference focused on
automated driving. In my view, it was the best of the 12-year run, and I've attended in person or on Zoom all of them. Thank you, Jane Lappin, for doing much of the heavy lifting needed to make each happen and especially this one. Thanks also goes out the
Steve Shladover, who has been very instrumental in all, and, of course, to Brad, who has been a most active participant in most, if not all. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
NHTSA Announces New Autonomous Driving Regulations
S. McElligott, July 13, "The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is expected to make a move that may hasten the deployment of driverless cars onto our roads but wants more data from the automakers in return....
"We believe AV STEP is a way to open up a wealth of data and allow for deployment of noncompliant vehicles," Carlson was quoted in the Automotive News piece. "Where we can benefit from, learn from and enhance our research into automated-vehicle
safety and performance," she reportedly added while speaking at the Automated Road Transportation Symposium on July 12. "This is a new and exciting opportunity for all of us," she said....
"We believe AV STEP is a way to open up a wealth of data and allow for deployment of noncompliant vehicles," Carlson was quoted in the Automotive News piece. "Where we can benefit from, learn from and enhance our research into automated-vehicle
safety and performance," she reportedly added while speaking at the Automated Road Transportation Symposium on July 12. "This is a new and exciting opportunity for all of us," she said.... "
Read more
Hmmmm… Carlson's comments were among the most encouraging statements made at the conference. As I heard it, the forthcoming program, fully legitimized by NHTSA's existing legislation,
will allow the deployment of large numbers of "non-compliant" vehicles in tests that mandate the deployment of large numbers of vehicles. "Proof-of-market" tests only begin to have the opportunity to make any sense if they involve large numbers of vehicles.
EVs didn't begin to be thought of as anything more than a toy for the rich until Tesla or anybody else sold way more than 5.000 EVs. Similarly, the market for safe, affordable, sustainable, demand-responsive mobility can't begin to be proven until a large
number of vehicles are efficiently operated and capture a large number of loyal customers. Affordability requires scale. Driverless technology requires scale to be affordable. If the technology doesn't yield affordability then it is no better than Uber/Lyft/Taxi
and has no hope of passing a Kornhauser "Proof-of-Market" test. Those that can't afford Uber/Lyft/Taxi and aren't served by conventional public transit will continue to either walk, b a ride or not go.
Carlson's vision opens up the opportunity to conduct substantive "Proof-of-Market" tests that seeks to demonstrate that non-compliant driverless vehicles such as GM's Origin can indeed attract the substantial
number of customers that need the safe, affordable, equitable, sustainable high-quality rides that can only emerge from a large scale deployment. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
Tesla's other great achievement
G. Mercer, July 13, "Caveat: “All claims about Tesla are true, both pro and con.” An auto executive told me that once, and it is a very astute observation. Every word of praise for Tesla has an offsetting critique
lined up against it, and vice versa. Tesla bulls and bears are thus well-armed with points both for and against, and talk right past each other. To (try to) avoid this happening with this post, please set aside your various biases about the company and just
focus on the topic at hand: the Tesla product line. If you want to rant about Elon’s procreation strategy, or who really invented the frunk, there’s always Twitter.1
Most Car People will actually agree on one thing about Tesla: its Supercharger strategy is pure genius, and its execution of that strategy so far has been superb. (I am not so sure how the opening of the Supercharger Walled Garden to the sweaty hordes of EV
newbies from GM and elsewhere will work out. Stay tuned.) But in my opinion Tesla’s other amazing achievement is mostly overlooked, and that is the radical simplicity of its product line. To cut to the chase, if Tesla can continue to make this product strategy
work, it may redefine the way car companies have competed for the last century or so....."
Read more
Hmmmm… This is a brilliant article by someone who well understands the car business. Read all of it. Alain
[log in to unmask]">Video
of new Tesla people-mover vehicle allegedly leaks
S. Doll, July 14, “A video of what is alleged to be a new Tesla people-mover for the Boring Company has leaked. It could be the real deal.
A Tesla electric van, minibus, or people-mover has been in the works for a long time. In the “Tesla Master Plan Part 2,” CEO Elon Musk talked about two new segments Tesla is looking to electrify:..."
Read more
Hmmmm… Very interesting. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
Wynn's Vegas Loop station near complete; expected to operate early 2024
A. Roberts, July 12, “A new phase of the Boring Company's Vegas Loop, connecting the Wynn Las Vegas resort with the Las Vegas Convention Center, is nearly complete
Wynn Resorts announced the completion of a 2,325-foot tunnel in a news release on Wednesday. Work is ongoing on the Wynn passenger station, which will be located near the Encore valet entrance....."
Read more Hmmmm… Nice! Progress continues to be made. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
Halo.Car launches driverless delivery of rental vehicles in Las Vegas
Staff, June 29, " The car-share company Halo.Car says it has launched its first driverless delivery of electric vehicles in downtown Las Vegas.
Safety drivers have been removed from remote-piloted vehicles in a world-first commercial launch, Halo.Car said in a press release. Customers can book an electric vehicle to their requested location and have it delivered without a driver in the car. A second
vehicle will follow to monitor the driverless vehicle to provide support or stop it if necessary.
This comes after four years of testing where safety drivers were inside the vehicles during remote piloting, according to the company.“..."
Read more Hmmmm… OK Congratulations. Alain
Bridging Transportation Researchers (BTR) Conference
Paper Submission deadline: April 30
August. 9 & 10
On-line Conference
***
IATR 2023 36th Annual Conference
********************
Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
325 /
PodCast 325 Turing (Kornhauser) Test
F. Fishkin, July 14, “Following a trip to the TRB Symposium in San Francisco and robo-taxi rides with Cruise and Waymo, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser
declares they have passed the Turing (Kornhauser) Test of Proof of Technology. Now, he says, it is time for Proof of Market. How? Episode 325 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00
open
0:30
Alain editorial on Cruise and Waymo passing the Turing (Kornhauser) Test..proof of technology
2:20
Super impressed with accomplishments of Cruise and Waymo 10:10
More on “Turing” test
15:46
Continuing battle for acceptance of robotaxis in San Francisco
26:30
Now need Proof of Market for robotaxis
38:14
Cruise takes out ads while Waymo posts about faulty human drivers
46:15
U.S. News reports from TRB on new self driving regulations coming
57:30
VW begins autonomous ID.Buzz rides in Munich
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
323 /
PodCast 323 w/Russ Mitchell, LA Times Correspondent
F. Fishkin, June 26, “Robotaxis and first responders. The San Francisco situation with Waymo and Cruise. And focusing on solving mobility needs could generate more public support. Russ Mitchell of the L.A. Times joins
Princeton's Alain Konrhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 323 of Smart Driving Cars.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 322
/ PodCast 322 w Ken Pyle & Bryce Rasmussen’25 Investigate MOVES-style deployments anywhere in US
F. Fishkin, June 20, “What were the takeaways when a Nissan Leaf owner picks up a Model 3 from a Hertz rental counter? Ken Pyle, managing editor of Viodi, tells us first hand. Plus more on Tesla,
Mobileye, Cruise and Waymo and an interactive data visualization demo on mobility demand from Princeton student Bryce Rasmussen. Episode 322 of Smart Driving Cars.
0:00 open
0:50 Ken Pyle…a Nissan Leaf owner…on experience with Tesla Model 3 rental
21:29 Mobility needs unmet in Little Rock, Arkansas?
26:00 Princeton student Bryce Rasmussen demos software he has worked on that can show mobility logistical needs on the fly. A MOVES Interactive Data
Visualization.
1:10:33 Mobileye blog post on new taxonomy for automated driving
1:12:24 Brad Templeton Forbes piece.. Is the Personal Self Driving Car for City Streets a False Early Dream?
1:14:03 Fleet News.. Connected and Autonomous Vehicles are Here..but What Does That Mean for Fleets?
1:14:50 More Tesla news.. Supercharger Monitoring System… Hyundai looking at Tesla charging standard.. and Model Y second only to Ford 150 as best selling
vehicle overall in U.S..
1:20:25 Waymo brings customer to Costco..
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 321
/ PodCast 321 A look at the innovative Cruise Origin
F. Fishkin, June 14, “A look at the innovative Cruise Origin from CARTS Mobility's Jerry He, dissecting the market for autonomous mobility, Tesla's rocket ride and more. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host
Fred Fishkin for episode 321 of Smart Driving Cars.
0:00 open
0:25 CARTS Mobility gets look at Cruise Origin at Axios event
05:15 Dissecting the market for autonomous mobility and more
10:50 Inside EVs headline on Cruise not blocking responders in San Francisco
14:45 Alain will have more to say in upcoming book he is co-authoring with Michael Sena
20:38 Ken Pyle at Viodi posts on mobility need in Little Rock
26:17 Toyota Mobility Foundation backing sustainable Cities Challenge
28:24 I-95 Philadelphia closure
31:30 More n moility in cities
42:15 Tesla shares have rocketed
45:10 Uer reportedly launching peer to peer vehicle sharing
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 320
/
PodCast 320 w Roger Lanctot, Director, Auomotive Connected Mobility @ TechInsights
F. Fishkin, June 2, “NHTSA begins the rule process to require automatic emergency braking that works even at highway speeds. That and more on episode 320 of Smart Driving Cars. Guest Roger Lanctot,
director Automotive Connect Mobility, Global Automotive Practice at TechInsights joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
00:53 NHTSA proposing rule requiring automatic emergency braking for passenger cars and light trucks
39:20 NHTSA remains without a confirmed administrator
42:35 NHTSA criticized for moving too slowly in Inspector General report
50:29 NHTSA ends investigation of Tesla in vehicle gaming and value of over the air updates
1:00:40 Takeaways from conference in Israel
1:09:45 ARS Technica piece The Death of Self Driving Cars has Been Greatly Exxagerated -Alex Roy
1:13:26 Einride to deploy in UAE
1:17:19 The best market for autonomous technology
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 319
/ PodCast 319 w
Michael Sena, publisher
The DispatcherF. Fishkin, May 29, “vehicle to vehicle communication needed? Ford's electric vehicle issues even as it strikes a deal with Tesla. The Model Y becomes a global top seller while Elon Musk's
Neuralink wins FDA approval for chip implant trials. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for those stories and more on episode 319 of Smart Driving Cars.
0:00 open
1:00 vehicle to vehicle communications
21:30 Catalytic converter theft could have been prevented
34:30 The EV energy issue
46:00 Zoox self certification
1:03:23 Guest author in Musings section
1:04:30 Tesla Model Y global sales leader and what to make of Tesla data leak
1:10:25 Neuralink brain computer interface trials coming
1:11:35 Uber adding Waymo vehicles to its app
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 318
/
PodCast 318
F. Fishkin, May 19, “On episode 318 of Smart Driving Cars: Futurist Chunka Mui says don't fall for the hype on generative AI...but don't be complacent. Plus the Mobileye deal with Porsche, Tesla's driver monitoring,
Elon's CNBC interview and headlines from Waymo, Cruise and Lyft. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest.
0:00 open
0:30 Futurist Chunka Mui says don’t fall for the hype on generative AI.. and don’t be complacent
12:44 Mobileye deal with Porsche
15:30 Tesla makes driver monitoring more strict
22:13 Elon Musk CNBC interview wide ranging
25:16 Tesla robotaxis..coming or not?
27:26 Waymo/Cruise robotaxis to charge in SF
28:45 Brad Templeton piece on robotaxis
36:15 Lyft discontinues shared rides
44:00 Even investors seem bored with autonomous cars
46:00 Army moves forward with autonomous vehicle transport
48:15 EcoMotion Week conference coming in Israel
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 317
/ PodCast 317
F. Fishkin, May 12, “Smart Driving Cars episode 317 Waymo, Cruise, Elon and more. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest on autonomy, mobility and more.
0:00 open
0:30 Waymo expands robotaxi service
6:26 Lyft shares struggle
10:45 GM Cruise expanding service in Texas
17:30 Neighborhoo
18:45 Time to go beyond proof of technology
23:52 Nuro pulls back
25:55 And TuSimple threatened with delisting
26:40 Consumer Reports’ Chris Harto on can the grid handle EVs
32:13 Elon Musk finds new CEO for Twitter
33:00 Musk’s Boring Company expanding operations in Las Vegas
37:12 Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit postponed, EcoMotion taking place in Tel Aviv
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 316
/
PodCast 316 w/Grayson Brultye, CEO, The Road to Autonomy
F. Fishkin, May 3, “Grayson Brulte, head of The Road to Autonomy, selects S&P Dow Jones to be the custom calculations agent for indices. He joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to discuss that
plus the outlook for autonomous mobility and industry, trucking and more. Plus the latest Smart Driving Cars Summit news. Tune in and subscribe.
0:00 open
0:49 Grayson Brulte Road to Autonomy selects S&P Dow Jones for new indices.
2:57 Autonomy will drive growth for range of companies and industries
9:05 Perception that it has been a rough year for companies in the space
11:00 What about using the technology to provide mobility for all?
26:46 Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit hits logistics challenges
29:45 Jalopnik reports on autonomous cars getting in way of emergency responders
33:55 Kodiak says it will have autonomous truck in fleet next year
35:46 Will autonomous trucks cost jobs?
38:15 Grayson invokes elevator analogy
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 315
/ PodCast 315
w/Michael Sena, Editor of
The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, April 27, “There's a new book on the way from Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and Michael Sena, publisher of The Dispatcher. Plus, Alain on what was learned from the SpaceX Starship launch, Cruise is now
offering driverless transportation around the clock in San Francisco and more details on this spring's Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit.
0:00 open
0:49 Alain thoughts on his being there for the inaugural Starship launch and what was learned
5:55 The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena on new book coming co-authored with Alain on Mobility for the Non-mobile and what will be coming at the May
Smart Driving Cars Summit
14:14 Alain experiences lack of mobility in Texas for the Starship launch.
22:20 Changes coming after The Dispatcher reader poll
26:50 New pollution guidelines from the EU and the EPA 40: 30 Musings section of The Dispatcher has guest author this month
42:30 Cruise self driving taxis now operating around the clock in San Francisco
44:44 Cruise meanwhile had loss of 561 million dollars in last quarter
48:00 Michael on evolution of buses
56:35 More on the upcoming Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit
57:30 Motortrend reports BYD says self driving technology “basically impossible”.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 314
/ PodCast 314 Starship Launch
F. Fishkin, April 20, “A step towards our journey to Mars. And it relates to mobility. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser was there for the inaugural launch of #Starship from Starbase in Texas. His thoughts on the achievement
by SpaceX and Elon Musk as Alain joins co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 314 of Smart Driving Cars.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 313 /
PodCast 313
F. Fishkin, April 15, “Some praise for Cruise and the voluntary recall, a battle for Waymo and Aurora, Didi Robotaxis, Tesla, Space X and the coming Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit. All in episode 313 of Smart
Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
1:00 Cruise recall
11:00 Jalopnik report on Waymo problems with San Francisco fog
15:00 Didi Robotaxis
20:45 TWU opposing waiver for Waymo and Aurora
24:12 EPA unveils new standards pushing EVs
32:00 Tesla Daily
32:43 Upcoming Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit
46:30 SpaceX readies Starship
48:30 Musk launching new AI company
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 312
/
PodCast 312 w/Helen Pen, GM of Baidu Apollo Autonomous Driving USA
F. Fishkin, April 3, “#Baidu
#Apollo is now operating in three cities in China including Beijing, providing fully driverless rides to passengers. Helen Pan, GM of Baidu Apollo Autonomous Driving USA joins Alain and and Fred and Jerry
He of CARTS to discuss the progress and plans. Join us for the wide ranging discussion plus the latest on the upcoming 6th Annual Smart Driving Cars Summit! For more information about the 6th
#SmartDrivingCars Summit:
https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
0:00 open
1:10 Helen Pan outlines status of Baidu’s autonomous mobility efforts in China
3:50 Pan says Baidu Apollo has paying customers
11:52 Alain asks how Baidu is operating the services
21:07 What are hours of operation and where are vehicles able to operate
28:14 Pan outlines advantages of autonomous mobility and the business model
50:38 Helen on Apollo going Open Source with Apollo Open Platform
55:00 Apollo's hardware & software integration + OEM partnerships
58:00 Who will operated the service?
1:01:00 6th Annual Smart Driving Cars Summit is approaching
1:03:20 Alain on object of summit
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 311
/ PodCast 311
w/Michael Sena, Editor of
The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, March 30, “With Elon Musk and others joining the Future of Life Institute in calling for a pause in AI development, what's next? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin
from Sweden to discuss that plus a freeze on ICE, Ford, Bill Gates and more. Episode 311 of Smart Driving Cars.
0:00 open
0:45 Future of Life Institute calls for pause in further development of AI
27:00 EU Big 3 Countries want to freeze the ICE ban
37:00 Mind your own business but know who your customer really is.. railroads, cars.. mobility
1:04 :00 upcoming Smart Driving Cars Summit
1:04:30 Ford CEO says new electric truck will allow you to nap, use phone, on highways in good weather
1:04:57 Bill Gates posts about going for a ride in a self-driving vehicle in the U.K.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 310
/ PodCast 310
F. Fishkin, March 24, “Where does autonomous mobility go from here? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin explore...plus Ford's EV losses, SMART grants fail to fund autonomous mobility, Waymo, drones
& more. 0:00 open
0:35 Princeton basketball
1:25 More thoughts in aftermath of ITU 2023 Future Networked Car .”Symposium. Where does autonomous mobility go from here?
29:26 SMART grants from DOT fail to fund autonomous mobility
31:55 Ford’s EV losses
32:57 Ford updates on BlueOval City mega site in West Tennessee
4:46 Waymo takes on task of writing the safety case for Avs. Alain emphasizes that companies shouldn’t compete on safety
39:25 The Street headline… Four reasons self driving cars, not drones, will deliver your packages.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 309
/ PodCast 309 w/ Michael Sena, ITU 2023
F. Fishkin, March 19, “Following
The Future Networked Car ITU Symposium, committee member and moderator Michael Sena joins Alain and Fred for episode 309 of Smart Driving Cars. And a National Disability Institute study on how autonomous mobility could help millions join the workforce.
Plus GM Cruise, Gatik and Krogers, Baidu and more.
0:00 open
0:53 Princeton sports!
1:40 ITU Symposium
4:35 Chat GPT
6:00 Missy Cummings at ITU
9:38 Safety systems not interconnected
13:45 ITU Symposium takeaways
30:40 UN regulations & autonomous vehicles Cruise and more
4
0:29 National Disability Institute report
5:11 Krogers and Gatik test autonomous trucks in Texas
54:30 Baidu reported offering driverless rides in Beijing
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 308 /
PodCast 308 On the road at Starbase @ Boca Chica, Texas
F. Fishkin, March 11, “In this special edition of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser takes us to Boca Chica, Texas and pays a visit to Starbase, the SpaceX Spaceport.”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 307 /
PodCast 307 w Jason Ditman, Chief Engineer GM
F. Fshkin, March 7, “GM says Ultra Cruise will arrive with the 2024 Cadillac Celestiq and will ultimately enable hands free driving in 95 percent of driving situations. Ultra Cruise chief engineer Jason Ditman joins
Alain and Fred for episode 307 of Smart Driving Cars. He tackles the tough questions and issues. Plus Cruise Robotaxi unit cutting costs, NHTSA probing Zoox self certification and Embark winding down.
0:00 open
0:40 GM Ultra Cruise Chief Engineer Jason Ditman introduction
1:55 How did development go during Covid?
4:32 Announcement that Ultra Cruise will first arrive on 2024 Cadillac Celestiq
8:45 Alain comments on Super Cruise
9:50 How does Ultra Cruise availability figure into route planning
13:40 Why is hands off is important and not feet off
16:45 If using intelligent cruise control…why does it disengage when brakes are tapped?
25:29 System is separate from automated emergency braking…how do they talk to each other
28:43 Response to Missy Cummings headlines that people using automated systems involved in crashes were speeding more often than people driving without
automated systems engaged.
33:24 GM Cruise says focused on cutting costs this year according to Reuters
37:25 NHTSA opens probe, reportedly, into self certification of the test procedures at Zoox
41:08 Embark winding down operations, laying off most employees
44:41 Kudos to GM Ultra Cruise team
49:24 Here comes Alain’s spring break
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 306 /
PodCast 306
F. Fishkin, March 3, “Waymo passes a million miles with Waymo Driver and issues a safety report. Tesla addresses investors and the future, Ford creates Latitude AI and more. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host
Fred Fishkin for episode 306 of Smart Driving Cars.”
0:00 open
0:44 Waymo Driver performance report
14:15 More layoffs at Waymo
15:00 Tesla Investor Day-what we learned
16:18 Adam Jonas at Morgan Stanley impressed with Tesla Investor Day
23:05 Ford creates Latitude AI after demise of Argo AI
29:40 Guidehouse Insights research report
34:35 Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association seeks modernization of vehicle exemption process
39:05 Diane Gutierrez Scaccetti to chair Transportation Research Board Executive Committee
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 305 /
PodCast 305 w/Michael Sena
F. Fishkin, Feb. 27, ”
With shrinking populations and vacant office space, Michael Sena says the de-industrial revolution has begun. "The Dispatcher" publisher and consultant joins Alain Kornhauser & Fred Fishkin for episode 305 of
Smart Driving Cars. Plus...run flat tires, GM's Cruise Origin, Locomation, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
1:00 Is it time we admitted the world will change: the de-industrial revolution has begun
21:00 Impact on transportation, automakers
28:40 Run flat tires..from Michelin and more
35:25 GM’s waits for NHTSA okay for deployment of Cruise Origin autonomous mobility
46:00 Locomation denies reports of its demise
47:08 The Insider report on Tesla… and upcoming master plan. Alain’s comments not what were reported.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 304 /
PodCast 304 w/Missy Cummings, Prof. George Mason Uni"F. Fishkin, Feb. 16 ”She was among the
first female fighter pilots in the Navy, was recently a senior NHTSA safety advisor, and is a professor of engineering and computer science. Missy Cummings is worried that ADAS technology is causing more people to speed. What to do? Dr. Cummings joins Alain
and Fred to discuss. Plus the latest from Zoox, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
1:00 Missy Cumming pushing for limits on autonomous tech9:30 hands free, feet free driving dangers
15:00 Should tech be used to block speeding and reckless driving?
32:00 Issues with intelligent cruise control
40:30 Is the battle for cars that would forbid speeding winnable?
44:00 Are vehicle safety systems not communicating with each other?
50:00 Is the problem with vehicles identifying stationary objects being addressed?
55:20 Zoox begins carrying passengers on public roads in vehicles without steering wheels
57:17 Rob Mauer’s Tesla Daily
58:30 Ken Pyle’s ViodiTV compiles autonomous round up from CES
59:25 Brad Templeton launches Robocars podcast
59:48 Alain will lead off MIT Mobility Forum series Frida
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 303 /
PodCast 303 w/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Reports
"F. Fishkin, Feb. 9, ” Ford's BlueCruise comes out on top in an evaluation of active driving assistance systems by Consumer
Reports. Manager of Vehicle Technology Kelly Funkhouser joins us for a look at what car makers are getting right and getting wrong. Plus.. Tesla, Mobileye, autonomous planes and more.
0:00 open
0:48 Active Driving Assistance Evaluation Report from Consumer Reports
2:53 Ford’s BlueCruise ousts GM as top in ADAS
10:33 What is the value of being able to drive hands free and pedal free
16:40 Why doesn’t the technology prevent speeding and misbehavior
21:08 Are consumers using the safety features..
27:14 Pro active braking assist coming to more vehicles and is a great feature
36:00 Should there be a light or mechanism that shows others whether cars are being controlled by human or
automated system?
43:43 Are there things that carmakers are really getting right or really getting wrong?
51:00 Corvette on top in CR report on vehicle owner satisfaction
52:43 Navya
53:00 Axios reports autonomous passenger planes inching closer to takeoff
54:00 a fight against sludge…from NY Times
54:51 Mobileye post advocating simpler language for autonomy levels
56:47 Waymo named Super Bowl officials autonomous technology partner”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 302 /
PodCast 302 Autonomous chaos in San Francisco?...
"F. Fishkin, Feb. 3, ”
Robotaxi chaos in San Francisco? Tesla boosting production in China. Level 3 launch from Mercedes. Layoffs at Rivian. More SpaceX success! Join us for episode 302 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain
Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
0:55 Autonomous chaos in San Francisco?”
6:28 National Safety Council marks anniversary of national roadway safety strategy
9:41 Tesla boosts production at Giga Shanghai & more
11:25 More SpaceX success
14:05 Mercedes launch of level 3 systems in U.S.
19:12 U.K. Unveils First ”Fully” Autonomous Bus Service
23:11 Layoffs at Rivian
24:35 Data Centers on Wheels: Emissions From Computing Onboard Autonomous Vehicles
27:47 Ford boosts production of Mustang Mach E touting 0-60 thrills in press release
30:54 Justice Department urged to look at leaders of TuSimple and alleged transfer of tech to Chinese start-up “
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 301 /
PodCast 301 w/Michael Sena, Editor
of The Dispatcher
"F. Fishkin, Jan.27, ” Driverless work vehicles advance while driverless passenger cars seem stalled. The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Alain and Fred on episode 301 of Smart Driving Cars for that, plus Tesla
rebounds, Ford's Blue Cruise impresses and more. “
0:00 open
1:00 Driverless Work Vehicles discussion
20:45 Stellantis Reaching for the Data Star
23:27 Winters can be cold, EVs like it hot
36:11 Tesla earnings, news and rebound
38:39 Layoffs hitting Waymo? And other tech companies too.
47:30 Ford’s Blue Cruise top rated by Consumer Reports in active driver assistance
Link
to previous 276 -> 300 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Link
to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
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Editorial: Cruise and Waymo have passed the “Turing (Kornhauser) Test” for Proof-of-Technology
A. Kornhauser,
July 14,”Happy
Bastille Day! ” What a day for me to write my first editorial. Fane 24 begins its
Bastille Day: A brief history of France’s July 14 national holiday… “Bastille Day” is known in France simply
as “le Quatorze Juillet”, a reference to the date on which it is held. July 14 became an official national holiday in 1880 to commemorate key turning points in French history. …
Today, July 14, 2023, commemorates for me the turning point in autonomousTaxi (aka aTaxi, roboTaxi) history to commemorate aTaxi’s passage of the “Turing (Kornhauser) proof-of-technology” test, as written in
Wikipedia… “The Turing test, originally called the imitation game by Alan
Turing in 1950,[2] is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent
behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. …”
…
Kornhauser’s "Proof-of-Technology” version of the Turing Test, as it might appear in Wikipedia, would be “… a machine's ability
to give a ride equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Kornhauser proposed that a human evaluator would judge
rides given in an Operational Design Domain between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like
rides given in that Operational Design Domain. …”
After spending three days in San Francisco listening to and engaging in discussions describing the testing of driverless cars by Cruise and Waymo, and getting rides given by humans
and by machines designed to give human-like rides, I've come to the conclusion that, if I kept my eyes closed, I could not tell if a human or a machine was giving me the ride. Rides were indistinguishable. Furthermore, since their simulations and data-supported
real-world testing experience have more than satisfied the safety equivalence condition by exceeding it, I can declare that both Cruise and Waymo have passed the
“Turing (Kornhauser) Proof-of-Technology Test”
That is an enormous accomplishment. I for one/many/most/essentiallyAll New Jerseyians can’t wait for Cruise and/or Waymo to assemble sufficient machines, adjust them to address some
of the quirks of a Trenton/Mercer County ODD, a Perth Amboy/Middlesex County ODD, a Patterson/Pasaic County ODD, a Newark/Essex County ODD… and offer human-like rides to us. I’m certain Cruise and/or Waymo will find us grateful, thankful, appreciative of
the improved quality-of-life that they’ll be able to profitably deliver to so many of us in New Jersey. By coming to New Jersey, they'll go beyond the
“Turing (Kornhauser) Proof-of-Technology" test to pass the “Kornhauser Proof-of-Market" Test. Alain
Should your car prevent accidents,
period?
F. Fishkin, July 4, “
Would you want to own a car that would simply stop most accidents from happening? What about having that kind of car for your children? At Princeton University, the faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering, Alain
Kornhauser, my co-host on the Smart Driving Cars podcast…says many vehicles today are equipped with enough technology or could be equipped with enough technology, to simply not permit excessive speeding, tailgating and other forms of reckless driving and
could prevent the vast majority of collisions…along with the associated deaths, injuries and costs. The question to ponder is….is that something we want as a society? The technology is ready and waiting. The many who have suffered injuries or lost
loved ones…would likely say yes. What about you? What about regulators and carmakers? …”
Read more
Hmmmm… Of course. Fred and I have for years said there are 3 groupings of SmartDrivingCars:
* SafeDrivingCars… exactly what Fred is talking about. Their value proposition is they keep the driver from misbehaving if that misbehavior is likely to lead to a crash of any kind.
* SelfDrivingCars… that perform the driving functionality when the driver remains engaged in overseeing the automated driving and remains completely capable of reengaging in the driving
process within very short notice. Their value proposition is the delivery of comfort and convenience to the driver.
* DriverlessCars… that performs all of the driving functionality. No assistance is required or desired to be done by any of the vehicle occupants. These operate as well with or
without any person in them. Everyone inside is a passenger. Their value proposition is purely an economic one in which no human labor expense is incurred in the provision of mobility. This economic benefit can be profound in not only substantially reducing
the cost of mobility but also enabling levels of service and vehicle utilization that are substantially better than can otherwise be achieved. Alain
Should your car prevent accidents, period?
F. Fishkin, July 4, “
Would you want to own a car that would simply stop most accidents from happening? What about having that kind of car for your children? At Princeton University, the faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering, Alain
Kornhauser, my co-host on the Smart Driving Cars podcast…says many vehicles today are equipped with enough technology or could be equipped with enough technology, to simply not permit excessive speeding, tailgating and other forms of reckless driving and
could prevent the vast majority of collisions…along with the associated deaths, injuries and costs. The question to ponder is….is that something we want as a society? The technology is ready and waiting. The many who have suffered injuries or lost
loved ones…would likely say yes. What about you? What about regulators and carmakers? …”
Read more Hmmmm… Of course. Fred and I have for years said there are 3 groupings of SmartDrivingCars:
* SafeDrivingCars… exactly what Fred is talking about. Their value proposition is they keep the driver from misbehaving if that misbehavior is likely to lead to a crash of any kind.
* SelfDrivingCars… that perform the driving functionality when the driver remains engaged in overseeing the automated driving and remains completely capable of reengaging in the driving
process within very short notice. Their value proposition is the delivery of comfort and convenience to the driver.
* DriverlessCars… that performs all of the driving functionality. No assistance is required or desired to be done by any of the vehicle occupants. These operate as well with or
without any person in them. Everyone inside is a passenger. Their value proposition is purely an economic one in which no human labor expense is incurred in the provision of mobility. This economic benefit can be profound in not only substantially reducing
the cost of mobility but also enabling levels of service and vehicle utilization that are substantially better than can otherwise be achieved. Alain
San Francisco’s fire chief is fed up with robotaxis that mess with her firetrucks.
And L.A. is next
R. Mitchell, June 26, “Robotaxis keep tangling with firefighters on the streets of San Francisco, and the fire chief is fed up.
“They’re not ready for prime time,” Chief Jeanine Nicholson said….
State regulators track robotaxi collisions, but they don’t track data on traffic flow issues,
such as street blockages or interference with firetrucks.
But the Fire Department does. Since Jan. 1, the Fire Department has logged at least 39 robotaxi incident reports…
State regulators track robotaxi collisions, but they don’t track data on traffic flow issues,
such as street blockages or interference with firetrucks.
The Fire Department incidents include reports of robotaxis:…
Safety data censored
In 2021, the DMV joined with Waymo on a court-approved deal to allow driverless car companies to censor not only
trade secrets but basic information on safety performance, including most details of collision reports as well as information on how the company handles driverless car emergencies
The industry is tight with the information it releases to the public about its operations on public roads.
Waymo won’t say how many cars it runs in San Francisco. Cruise said it operates 150 to 300 cars but won’t be more precise. Neither company will say how large its fleet will grow, or how quickly. Neither Waymo nor Motional will say how many
robotaxis they’re testing in Santa Monica and L.A….” Read more
Hmmmm… Devastating in so many ways. The SF “proof-of-market” is a train wreck! Time for a major pivot!
Watch PodCast 323 with Russ. Alain
A Driverless Contest for Mid-Size Cities
K. Pyle, June 14, “A benefit of travel is the random conversations with strangers that cause one to look at the world in a slightly different way. For instance, standing in the airport security line this week,
a lady from Little Rock, AR explained that Uber and Lyft no longer serve the hometown of the Bill Clinton Presidential Library.
[Fact check, according to its website, Lyft and Uber, as well as other local providers serve the Clinton
National Airport.]
She said their apps indicated that their respective services were not available. She believes this happened as a result of the pandemic.
[Fact check; Perhaps there still is a dearth of drivers
as reported in 2021.]
She described the taxi service in the Little Rock area as “awful”. It takes an hour and a half to get one. She also doesn’t feel safe in a taxi especially compared to Uber/Lyft…
If her perception of the limited mobility choices is representative of the population, perhaps Little Rock would be a great use case for a driverless service. I forwarded this question to Princeton Professor Kornhauser
and Michele Lee of Cruise for them to ponder and look forward to any feedback they might have (Kornhauser comments about this in the latest SmartDrivingCars podcast).
As background, the three of us serendipitously converged at CES2023 and talked about mobility challenges. In a soundbite
from that interview, Lee explains the challenges and opportunities for improving mobility and questions whether she could make the journey to Alain’s house. There are glimpses of her entering and securing her wheelchair in the Cruise, driverless Origin vehicle….“
Read more
Hmmmm… Check out
ZoomCast322 below. Be sure to also look at Ken’s embedded video with Michelle. Alain
Watch: A conversation on the U.S. autonomous vehicle industry
Axios events, June,7, “On Wednesday, June 7 in Washington, D.C., Axios transportation correspondent Joann Muller and business reporter Nathan Bomey hosted conversations exploring the growth of the American autonomous vehicle
industry. Guests included Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio), and National Disability Institute director of health equity Elizabeth Layman. A View from the Top sponsored segment featured Cruise chief legal and policy officer Jeff
Bleich….
Rep. Bob Latta discussed how driver safety is informing congressional efforts to accelerate autonomous vehicle regulation.
1.
On rising deaths from traffic accidents due to driver error:…
Sen. Gary Peters highlighted strong U.S. ambitions to lead in developing the technologies needed to support the growth of a domestic autonomous vehicle industry.
1.
On competition to be a leader in the future of mobility:…
Elizabeth Layman explained how autonomous vehicles could expand job prospects for people with disabilities in providing more options for transportation.
1.
On a recent National Disability Research report studying the impacts of AVs for people with disabilities:…”
Read more
Hmmmm… Watch attached video, and…. All those initiatives are very important, but the highest value “low hanging fruit” is Origin’s fundamental ability to provide affordable,
high-quality mobility to the large number of people who “need a ride”.
Many of those people today, don’t get to go where they wanted to go at the time they wanted to go because, they couldn’t “get a ride”. Some went through extra-ordinary “pain” to get the ride they got, but
unfortunately, the pain they incurred in getting that ride diluted the value and quality-of-life they could have gotten had the ride not been so challenging to get. Those that didn’t go, did something and got some personal value in doing that, but got less
value than if they could have gotten a high-quality affordable ride to where they really wanted to go.
Origin, properly deployed and operated, especially in
MOVES-style fashion, can readily deliver those rides safely and is “Made in America” and environmentally responsible and can readily use its flexibility to better serve the needs of those
with disabilities. Alain
NHTSA Proposes Automatic Emergency Braking Requirements for New Vehicles
Press release, May 31, “The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration today announced a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would require automatic
emergency braking and pedestrian AEB systems on passenger cars and light trucks. The proposed rule is expected to dramatically reduce crashes associated with pedestrians and rear-end crashes.
NHTSA projects that this proposed rule, if finalized, would save at least 360 lives a year and reduce injuries by at least 24,000 annually. In addition, these AEB systems would result in significant reductions in property damage caused
by rear-end crashes. Many crashes would be avoided altogether, while others would be less destructive.
“Today, we take an important step forward to save lives and make our roadways safer for all Americans,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said. “Just as lifesaving innovations from previous generations like seat belts and air
bags have helped improve safety, requiring automatic emergency braking on cars and trucks would keep all of us safer on our roads.” …” Read
more Hmmmm… This is substantial and you must read Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
which contains the details, especially page 14 (interesting that it states:”… all speeds above 10 km/h (6.2 mph), even if these speeds are above the speeds tested by NHTSA…”. Does this mean that If I’m doing x over
the speed limit, say 100mph, the system must remain functionable and very rarely suffer from false positives. Fantastic!
Also pay attention to the phase “imminent collision” that is supposed to trigger into action such a system. One must be very precise in the definition of “imminent” (is it really “1.6 seconds to collision”
or ???). I might suggest that nothing is imminent. There is a physical process that evolves over time from a state in which everything in “hunk-dory” to a time when one is between the “rock & hard place”. Maybe the Advance Driver Assistance System (ADAS,
intelligent cruise control, et al) should be communicating with the AEB so as to avoid, as much as possible, ever getting to that magical “imminent” point. The more that can be done to prepare and begin to do things as one passes through 2.0, 1.9, 1.8, 1.7,
1,65, 1.625, … so as to raise back up the time to collision to 1.65, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9. 2.0, .. infinity, the better!
If this is done well, the driver may not even be aware that it is happening. Then: No complaints! No taking the car back to the dealer and claiming it is a lemon! No or greatly reduced “false imminent train
wrecks” (especially when traveling at high speeds!!!). Doing this well delivers enormous value to the driver and society!
Here is what
Neal Boudette of the NY Times and
Andrew Hawkins of Verge wrote about this. Alain
Focus Only on V-2-V Communications to Save Lives
M. Sena, May 28, “Forget roadside units and national access points. They are a huge waste of time and tax payers’ money. Any report that claims otherwise is written to justify a pre-determined conclusion. If the European Commission and
NHTSA really and truly want to reduce vehicle-related deaths and injuries, they will legislate the fitting of alcohol locks on all cars, trucks and buses; require identification of the driver to prevent vehicles from starting if the driver is not licensed;
require the placement of governors on accelerators to prevent vehicles from exceeding the speed limits; and they will require cars to send the basic safety message to other vehicles—but NOT restrict how this should be done….”
Read more
Hmmmm… Maybe a long time from now when we’ve figured out how to deal with spam should V2V go beyond good old fashioned turn signals, brake lights, backup lights, headlamp flicks,
horns and flashing lights. “NHTSA-type folks” roll their eyes when I’ve pointed out that express buses in NJ have an extra pair of white taillights that turn on when the accelerator is not depressed to instantly inform trailing drivers that aerodynamic drag
may begin to slow down the bus in advance of any brake application.
Which is better than the “No way!” that I get when I suggest that a 4th tail light be placed to indicate that a car is in cruise control so that the trailing driver has
a better clue as to what the car ahead is going to do next. The light could be green if the car has intelligent cruise control and is maintaining a safe distance while traveling at less than its desired constant speed. It could turn blue when going at its
desired speed and might even turn another color or orientation if it is in “lane-centering” mode and has no intention of changing lanes. A vehicle so equipped could provide these leading indicators to any/all human-driven trailing cars at zero incremental
costs and to all driverless cars with a few lines of additional
Don’t Fall for the Hype or Hysteria About ChatGPT. Don’t be Complacent, Either.
Chunka Mui, April 28, “If you’re trying to decide how to invest in Generative AI and ChatGPT, take special heed of Amara’s Law,
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
This caution is especially warranted for technologies that rocket so quickly from research playthings to media headlines, like ChatGPT.
Don’t succumb to the hype or the hysteria. Don’t be complacent, either. Instead, before making any big decisions or strategic investments, take time to understand the technology and its applications, implications and limitations from your
own organizational and personal context. And to really understand it, remember the observation of Marvin Minsky, the cognitive scientist and cofounder of the MIT
AI Laboratory:
You don’t really understand something if you only understand it one way….”
Read more
Hmmmm… Additional good thoughts from Chunka: “We’re just a few days past Mother's Day, maybe that's what brought my mind to the phrase “Ai ai
aiii...” in response to all the headlines around AI these days. That was something my mom used to say in exasperation when things got a little carried away around my house as a kid.
Don’t get me wrong, as someone with a front row seat during earlier up and down eras of AI, I find the recent progress and tools amazing, almost even magical. But, both the hype and hysteria are a bit too breathless. As one eminent AI scientist recently said,
"Calm down people. We neither have super powerful AI around the corner, nor the end of the world caused by AI about to come down upon us.”
Hence the theme of three of my recent articles, one on AI in general and the others looking more specifically at AI in Health Care and Insurance is the same: Don’t panic. Don’t be complacent. Instead: think
big, start small and learn fast, guided by a robust future history.
1.
Don’t Fall for the Hype or Hysteria About ChatGPT.
Don’t be Complacent, Either.
2.
How AI Could Reshape the Future History of
Health Care (for the Better and Worse)
3.
6 Words to Focus Your AI Innovation Strategy
Hope you enjoy them. Please like, share and comment if you can. That really helps the bots know to spread the word (and would have made my mom smile).
Cheers, and may every day be a Happy Mother’s Day for all the moms in your life.”
I couldn’t agree more. Alain
Waymo
doubles robotaxi service area in Phoenix in bid to grow driverless trips tenfold
K. Korosec, May 4, “Waymo is doubling its commercial robotaxi service area in the Phoenix metro area, an expansion that will add new suburbs and connect previously isolated sections of the sprawling
and car-dependent desert city.… “ Read
more Hmmmm… This has the potential to be important news.
Phoenix has been a great “Proof of Technology/Safety” for Waymo. Safe, driverless mobility has been established in a substantial Operational Design Domain (ODD). The objective of that “Proof
of Technology/Safety” was: operate safely throughout the ODD without attendants. The performance metric was essentially no disengagements and essentially no crashes throughout the ODD with an attendant on board. Then pull the attendant and demonstrate essentially
no disengagements and essentially no crashes throughout the ODD.
Proof of
Market requires the service be attractive enough such that sufficient individuals choose Waymo One as the means by which they go from point A to point B, leaving at or about time t. For Waymo One to be the chosen by an individual means it had to be -perceived
by the traveler as being THE best way to go for this trip at this time. Not the 5th best, or the 3rd best or even the 2nd best. It had to be THE best for that individual for that {A,B, t}.
Users of Waymo One come from an addressable market made up of trips that would be taken by conventional means, had Waymo One not existed, plus the inducement of new trips because Waymo One
is so much better than all other options so as to make the destination + the travel so desirable that the individual decides to make the trip rather than not go.
To become #1 in the eyes of a potential customer, Waymo One has many positives:
1.
It is safe: OK, but not substantially safer than other ways Arizonians have among their choice set as to how to travel. Likely not enough to elevate Waymo One above their current way to go. So safety
by itself is not a differentiator. In economic jargon, the demand elasticity of safety is essentially zero at current safety levels.
2.
The technology: OK; however, this is a “one and done” greatness that generates a “selfie” on the first use and little perceived benefit thereafter. The cost of customer acquisition is so non-trivial
that it needs to be focused on repeat customers and not “one & done”s; where the service is rarely perceived to be better than one’s own car or an expense account ride hailing, taxi or limousine trip.
3.
Service is inexpensive and can be made affordable with vehicle productivity and scale: Great! This is an attribute that is really important at the current moment to folks who don’t have access to their
own car and who are paying their own way.
4.
Service is high-quality in that its flexibility can allow it to respond to a customer’s demand rather than having the customer change their desire in order to correlate to a schedule and a route: Great,
especially to those for which affordability is important so there isn’t need to trade off price with service. Moreover, the service can be made even better in the future such that even car owners may change their car-buying behavior because Waymo’s service
has become so good and so affordable that they pivot.
My recommendation would be for Waymo to concentrate their “Proof of Market” on serving customers who currently don’t have access to their own car, can’t readily get a ride from someone, and
will appreciate how inexpensively Waymo One can afford to deliver a safe, high-quality ride. Once focused on serving the mobility desires of this market segment, then Waymo One can pass the “Proof of Market” test by achieving a vehicle productivity of 100
person trips per day per vehicle. That productivity allows them to scale and be relevant and profitable. Is it any surprise that I am suggesting they work with us in Trenton and on other MOVES-style projects?
😊 Alain
The Road to Autonomy, April 25. “The Road to Autonomy®, a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles and logistics, has selected
S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) to be the custom calculation agent for The Road to Autonomy Index (ticker: AUTONOMY) and The Road to Autonomy Total Return Index (ticker: AUTOMYTR).
The Road to Autonomy Index, comprised of 38 publicly-traded companies, measures the performance of the autonomous vehicle and logistics ecosystems, including autonomous vehicles, trucks and off-road specialty vehicles, as well
as transportation, technology, industrial and services companies that have identified autonomy as a key component of their growth strategies.
"The Road to Autonomy Index provides a comprehensive view into this dynamic sector that is poised to shape the future of how we live and work," said Grayson Brulte, founder and chief executive officer of The
Road to Autonomy. "Our unmatched knowledge of the industry and the influences that drive it give us unique perspective into its potential, and our partnership with S&P DJI provides a foundation of integrity and transparency for the Index."… “
Read more
Hmmmm… Very interesting. See
ZoomCast 316/PodCast
316 below Alain
May 2023 Issue of the Dispatcher
M. Sena, April 26, “ I did some spring cleaning of my bookshelves. Before I chucked the ones I had picked out for removal, I leafed through them to be certain I was ready to part with them. Two
are in the process of being re-read. One, The Accidental Century, was authored in 1965 by Michael Harrington. He was the founder of the
Democratic Socialists of America. The book is a jewel. The second book,
The Living End, was written by Roger Starr, a Democratic Realist, a life-long
New Yorker, and an avid flyfisher. I have devoted a few pages of Dispatch Central to quotes from these two books.
Another book that has been on my shelves since 1997 is Clayton Christensen’s
The Innovator’s Dilemma. I found my way back to it as a reference for a book that I am co-authoring with Professor Alain L. Kornhauser titled
Mobility for the Non-mobile. Christensen devoted a whole chapter to why the car companies were getting it all wrong with electric cars—in 1997! There are great lessons for why everyone is getting it all wrong with driverless cars, which is the theme
of the lead article.
The moral of this story: Don’t be so quick to throw out old books; you never know when you are going to find them, read them, and appreciate what you didn’t get the first time around..….”
Read more
Hmmmm….. Another enjoyable issue with a very serious message. Alain
As Appears in the NY Times (&
CNN)
April 20, 2023,
"...
[log in to unmask]">
" Read more Hmmmm…..
Check out the guy in the Orange shorts. My 2nd live launch. My 1st was July 16, 1969, Cape Kennedy, Apollo 11.
😎
K. Vogt, April 7, “One of our Cruise AVs was recently involved in a minor collision after a city bus slowed and the AV was late to brake behind it. It resulted in minor
damage to the front fender of the AV and caused no injuries.
Fender benders like this rarely happen to our AVs, but this incident was unique. We do not expect our vehicles to run into the back of a city bus under any conditions,
so even a single incident like this was worthy of immediate and careful study.
I want to walk you through our investigation of the incident, what we’ve done to address our findings, and why we ultimately chose to file
a voluntary recall
with the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA). These actions are a reflection of the rigorous safety culture that we’ve built at Cruise and our deep commitment to improving roadway safety. ….”
Read more Hmmmm….. Kyle, thank you for the responsible
and timely response to an unfortunate incident. Thankfully, this minimal incident uncovered and enabled you to fix something which, under the rarest circumstances, might be more serious. Again, thank you for the post. Alain
While On-Road Driverless Slows, Ag-Tech Autonomy Players Are Plowing Ahead
R. Bishop, March 30, “The
John Deere Company wowed the crowds at the 2023 Consumer Electronics Show in January with their high-tech agricultural equipment. At their exhibit, heads craned upward in awe to take in the 120 ft boom of their precision spraying technology, straddled atop
a massive tractor. At the CES 2022, Deere & Company introduced a
fully autonomous tractor.
In the months since CES, we’ve seen multi-faceted challenges for companies seeking to transform road-running Automated Driving Systems (ADS) into a profitable business.
ADS developer Embark announced a shutdown and Locomation appears to be on the same path. The mood of investors is uncertain, especially given troubles in the banking sector.
Against this backdrop, the off-road world is becoming increasingly interesting for companies developing autonomy. Caterpillar and Komatsu brought the first commercial ADS’s
to mining operations well over a decade ago. At that time, although the tech was very expensive, a business case could be made for equipping the huge mine-hauling trucks at open pit mines.
Since that time, thanks to the tidal wave of AV development for passenger cars, trucks, robo-shuttles, delivery robots, and more, the tech cost has now come down to reasonable
levels for other types of industrial operations. Plus, the tech robustness has progressed by leaps and bounds. The result? Use cases are expanding rapidly in areas such as agriculture and construction. For this article, I’ll dig into the Ag space to examine
the linkages with on-road autonomy….” Read more Hmmmm…..
Right on, Dick! Such a timely and excellent post.
As I wrote last week in
SmartDrivingCar.com/11.13-AutomotiveAI-033123
and is repeated below…
“ The objective of the 6th SmartDrivingCars Summit will be to put the eventual manufacturers of driverless passenger vehicles together with the eventual operators of transportation services
to decide if there is a business to be made from delivering affordable mobility to a large segment our societies who are underserved by the current options: private cars and public transport.
It’s already happening with military and work vehicles”...
! Alain
Waymo retires its self-driving Chrysler Pacifica minivan
K. Karosec, March 30, “More than five years ago, a newly minted Waymo took the wraps off of what would become its first commercialized autonomous vehicle: a Chrysler Pacifica
Hybrid minivan loaded with sensors and software.
Now, the minivan, a symbol of the early and hypey AV days, is headed for retirement as Waymo
transitions its fleet (a must read)
to the all-electric Jaguar I-Pace vehicles equipped with its fifth-generation self-driving system.
When the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid AV was first revealed, it might not have been what people expected from the former Google self-driving project turned Alphabet-owned business.
The design wasn’t ripped from the pages of a graphic sci-fi novel and it was hardly flashy. But the white minivan — highlighted with the same blue and green accent colors found on the Waymo logo — embodied the company’s aim. Waymo wanted a friendly looking
vehicle people would feel comfortable using….
Waymo never got close to the 62,000-minivan order it agreed to in 2018 as part of an expanded partnership with Fiat Chrysler. But the minivan did become a critical part
of its commercialization plan and over its lifespan the fleet provided tens of thousands of rides to the public, according to the company. (Waymo has never revealed detailed figures of its minivan fleet beyond that its total global fleet is somewhere around
700 vehicles.)…” Read more Hmmmm…..
Wow!!! Deployment has barely started and Waymo is already “retiring” fleets.? Seemingly, in part, to obtain “
… On Thursday, the
White House gave a shout-out to Waymo
” What??? Washington isn’t even interested in AVs. In their
last funding round USDoT didn’t find a way to award even one penny to AVs, yet they’re still in the CV business. That straw didn’t break Pacifica’s back!
Is new vehicle availability expanding so much faster than new market opportunities that these vehicles aren’t worthy hand-me-downs to less deserving ODDs?
New Jersey hasn’t even been visited by one and let alone given any opportunity to serve the many in New Jersey who would really appreciate the Pacifica’s mobility
opportunities and have their quality-of-life substantially improved by the non-retirement of these vehicles.
So, I’m pleading with Waymo, please look at how to re-purpose these Pacificas in New jersey and please…
don’t do to these what
GM tried to do to the EV1s. Don’t crush’em all!
To help out, I bid to buy today, the first 2 that you “ retire”. As well as offer to purchase an option to buy 8 more within 6 months, 90 more within one year and
400 more within two years. Cash! Seriously! Call me!
Please Don’t crush’em all!
Alain
April 2023 Issue of the Dispatcher
M. Sena, March 29, “ ….In this
April issue of The Dispatcher for 2023, I have tried to summarize the discussions on Automotive AI that we had during the 2023 Future Networked Car Symposium. Amidst the warnings about the negative sides of AI, there are some positive signs that AI is being
put to good use for automotive safety. I hope you will spare some time to read
Musings this month. If you have ever wondered where the “We’re in the railroad business” cliché came from, you will find the answer in
Musings. There’s also a tip on where to have lunch when you visit Steamtown National Park in Scranton, PA this summer.….”
Read more
Hmmmm….. Another great issue. Enjoy the time you spend reading it. Alain
ITU 2023 Future Networked Car Symposium:
Automated Driving Systems (ADS) for Consumers and Other Vehicles (Trucks, Delivery, Shuttles, Robotaxis, Etc.)
R. Lanctot, March 12, “ Full automation of the driving task appears tantalizingly close. Multiple use cases are emerging simultaneously,
revealing potential paths to market adoption and consumer acceptance. The evolution of these use cases will determine the future of ADS. This panel will review the emerging ADS applications – consumer vehicles, commercial vehicles, delivery vehicles,
shuttles, robotaxis – to better understand the challenges and opportunities associated with ADS technology and the state of development and market adoption.….”
Read more Hmmmm….. After almost 15 years of substantive testing (the
Google effort started in 2009) and almost 20 years since
the first DARPA Challenge, we are still only ”… revealing potential paths to market adoption and consumer acceptance
…”???
Isn’t it about time that this teenager start delivering some tangible return to its “parents” and society. For what is supposed to be such a disruptive technology it has yet to identify the
market where it has
decisive cost or quality advantage over the existing firms. (over the existing solutions it is trying to replace.)
It might be as safe as good drivers
(It might be safer than bad drivers), but it has
no chance anytime soon to being disruptively safer. It is not disruptively more fun to drive. Just ride around with it, that’s a service, not a possession. It has no chance at being a consumer vehicle.
… ADS has equally no chance at replacing commercial vehicle drivers. Helping professional drivers have an enhanced workplace? Yes!
Removing them from their workplace? No!
Some special purposed deliveries in the middle of the night? Maybe.
Shuttles… at best a very small one-off niche with no opportunity to be disruptive.
Robotaxis designed and operated so as to serve rich ride-hailers and the chauffeured limousine market? Good luck! Service quality is
really important and price is essentially irrelevant (these folks are rich and/or are traveling on an expense account). It is a non-trivial challenge for Robotaxis to deliver service quality approaching that of Uber/Lyft/Limo; so at best, these
Robotaxis can only nip at the heels of Uber/Lyft/Limo, which itself is way less than 1% of the daily vehicle person-trips under 50 miles in length. Even if Robotaxis got’em all, there’s nowhere near enough to justify any continued investment here.
These conundrums are NOT what was discussed in this session.
Unfortunately, what was also not discussed or realized is that there does exist an enormous market for demand-responsive Robotaxi service that is affordable. 50% of the people in the U.S.
are not physically able to drive a car, or are not financially able to own one for themselves. They still need to get to work, to shops, to medical and rehab facilities, to school, to friends, to … and the fact that they cannot readily and affordably affects
their well-being and the health of the entire country. This is a huge market where a demand-responsive and affordable service is disruptive because it delivers mobility to those who need a ride but are not being served by any transport alternatives which they
can afford. THAT’S WHERE DRIVERLESS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE! Affordability is really important to those who are paying for their own travel and are non-rich. Thus, affordable, demand responsive Robotaxi service can readily be the best consumer choice for that
50%.
The addressable market here is ~150M people over the age of 10, wishing to make ~ 500M personTrips a day in the USA that don’t have their own car waiting around for them to drive it to take
them where they want to go at
the drop of a hat. To offer them with on-demand affordable Robotaxis service that is almost as well (and maybe even better) as if they did have that personal car, would be very disruptive
to some, even many and eventually “all”. A well-managed (100 personTrips per day per Robotaxi, 20% profit margin) fleet of 5M Robotaxis could serve essentially all. Serving 1% would need 50,000. Serving a targeted opportunity representing the first 0.001%
would require 50. This panel made no mention of this use case. No mention of the business case.
Let’s continue this panel discussion at the
6th Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit in May 22->24. A major part of the Summit is devoted to this one topic: Delivering Mobility to the Non-mobile. We’re going to talk about the business
case, something that is sorely missing in public discussion so far. Alain
ITU 2023 Future Networked Car Symposium:
Session 2: Using Automotive Artificial Intelligence to Improve Vehicle Safety, Services and Transport Management
M. Sena, March 11., “ …During the next 3 h our panel of experts will discuss the topic of automated automotive artificial intelligence which is artificial intelligence applied to vehicle safety
services, and transport management. I guarantee you they will do a much better job than ChatGPT or I'll personally refund your attendance fees.
The generally accepted definition of artificial intelligence or AI is the application of computers and machines to mimic the problem-solving and decision making capabilities
of the human mind….”Read more Hmmmm….. Must
watch video of session 2, Fantastic session, especially the very frank remarks by Prof. Missy Cummings. Also watch the other 3 sessions
linked here Alain
SpaceX
Continues Rapid Development of Starship Infrastructure - Starbase Weekly Update #53
LabPadre, March 12, “This week at Starbase Raptor installation begins on Booster 9, construction continues on Ships 28 and 30, Ship 26 is parked at the ring yard and the nosecone test article is set to Massey's
test site, while at Cape Canaveral SpaceX maintains a blinding pace of launch and recovery operations, ULA's first Vulcan rocket begins testing, and we review a new batch of flyover photos courtesy of Greg Scott….”
Read more Hmmmm…..
Watch video. Excellent weekly update. Alain
Starbase Live: 24/7 Starship & Super Heavy Development From SpaceX's Boca Chica Facility
MasaSpaceflight, Live, “Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable launch system which is being developed at Starbase in Cameron County, Texas. Starbase LIVE provides 24/7 coverage of the exciting developments and testing
progress….” Read more Hmmmm…..
Watch LiveStream 24/7. Alain
GM Announces Ultra Cruise, Enabling True Hands-Free Driving Across 95 Percent of Driving Scenarios
Press release, March 6, “Today, General Motors unveiled Ultra Cruise, an all-new, advanced driver-assistance technology and significant next step in the company's journey to enable its goal of
zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion. Designed to ultimately enable hands-free driving in 95 percent of all driving scenarios, Ultra Cruise eventually can be used on every paved road in the U.S. and Canada.
Ultra Cruise will cover more than 2 million miles of roads at launch in the United States and Canada, with the capacity to grow up to more than 3.4 million miles. Customers will be able to travel truly hands free with Ultra Cruise across nearly every road including
city streets, subdivision streets and paved rural roads, in addition to highways.….
GM’s two hands-free advanced driver-assist systems will coexist in the company’s lineup with Super Cruise available on more mainstream vehicles and Ultra Cruise reserved for premium entries.
“The combination of Ultra Cruise for premium offerings and Super Cruise for lower-cost products will enable us to offer driver-assist technology across price points and segments,” said Parks....
Always pay attention while driving and when using Ultra Cruise and Super Cruise. Do not use a hand-held device.
…. ” Read more Hmmmm…..
Very interesting. High-end and includes LiDAR See
ZoomCast 307 / PodCast 307 and Andrew Hawkins' "GM’s
Ultra Cruise will use radar, camera, and lidar to enable hands-free driving", below. Alain
First Million Rider-Only Miles: How the Waymo Driver is Improving Road Safety
The Waymo team, Feb 28, “Waymo has achieved many global industry firsts. Each time we delight our riders and deliver on our mission safely, we are proudest. In January, we accomplished another
first: we exceeded one million miles on public roads with no human behind the wheel. …
To provide a more in-depth look into the performance of the Waymo Driver and where it stands compared to human driving, we’ve published a research
paper that summarizes the contact events that we experienced during the first one million miles of our rider-only operations….
T. Victor, et al. “Safety
Performance of the Waymo Rider-Only Automated Driving System at One Million Miles”
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the safety performance of the Waymo Driver™, Waymo’s Automated Driving System (ADS). It analyzes one million miles of driving on public roads in parts of California
and Arizona with no human behind the wheel– what we call rider-only (RO) operations. There were no reported injuries, and only two collisions that were comparable to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Crash Investigation Sampling System (“CISS”),
a nationally representative collision database of collisions that were police reported and in which at least one vehicle was towed. There were an additional 18 minor-contact events that were too minor to meet the tow-away and police-report criteria for CISS,
where nine of these 20 contact events had no damage….
The first event that occurred had the
highest severity of the 20 contact events: … In this event, the Waymo vehicle was struck in the rear while slowing for a red light by a car driven by a teenage driver. Rearward facing video recorded
by the ADS suggests the driver of the other vehicle was looking at a cell phone held near the steering wheel immediately prior to the collision…. ”
Read more
Hmmmm….. The entire paper is worth a very careful read. Performance
during this first million miles is very impressive. While in the scope of things it is not very many miles, the first of anything is never very many and often it is when bad things happen. Look at
what happened to Uber in the beginning.
Enormous kudos to Waymo (and Cruise). They have, in my opinion, demonstrated that they can move people safely in an ODD. Hopefully, they’ll now look for an ODD where they can safely provide
mobility most of the time (NOT necessarily every day, but are confident that they can do it, say, 350 days a year) and certainly NOT everywhere in the ODD (instead find the safest set of streets and intersections that allows them to deliver interconnected
on-demand mobility requiring only a short walk (~less than 5 minutes) between most of the locations within that ODD/community). They then can build an affordable, equitable high=quality mobility system for the residents of that/those ODD(s)
There are many such communities throughout the country, many of which are communities where auto ownership is low, transit service is, at best, poor and the mobility offered would substantially
improve the quality of life of many.
Waymo’s (or Cruise’s) provision of safe, affordable, on-demand mobility would be an enormous public service as well as providing a basis from which to scale to meet thire due diligence obligation
to deliver substantial return on investment to Alphabet (and GM). Alain
Seeking NHTSA review of the Origin
R. Grant, Feb. 2022 “Cruise has taken a big step toward our vision of a safer, more sustainable and accessible transportation future. Together with General Motors, we have filed a petition
seeking approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to build and put the Cruise Origin into commercial service.
The Cruise Origin is among the most innovative vehicles in history: a zero-emission, shared, electric vehicle that has been purposefully designed from the ground up to operate without a human driver.
This means it does not rely on certain human-centered features, like a steering wheel or a sun visor, to operate safely.
At Cruise and GM, safety is our mission. This petition both demonstrates how the Origin achieves safety objectives of existing standards, and helps enable future AV regulations. NHTSA has made
clear in public testimony and regulatory actions, that in order to consider the development of AV standards, they first need more information from real world AV operations. We believe this petition can help enable that outcome: learnings from the Origin, which
is designed to improve overall road safety, can help inform the creation of new, updated regulations and standards….”
Read more Hmmmm…..Flashback! This was some of the best news that I had seen in a while when it came
out last year, and here we are one year later, and it is STILL at the top of the heap. It bears repeating: Someone who has been actually demonstrating the ability to safely move people on at least some city streets without a driver or attendant (there are
only two in the US: Cruise & Waymo) is seriously proposing to manufacture what is actually a driverless transit vehicle that can provide high-quality, demand- responsive mobility to a small group of people when those opportunities arise as well as serve the
needs of the individual when necessary .
Think of the opportunity of the demand-responsive mobility that such vehicles can deliver to our communities, especially the mobility disadvantaged, for whom travel demand is non-stationary
and so spatially and temporally distributed that it requires a vehicle to respond to the demand for mobility in real time. Such demand, while served exceedingly well by those of us who can afford and have a license to drive a car, has little hope of being
adequately served by conventional vehicles that require the demand to respond to pre-set routes and schedules. The space-time combinatorial of the demand is orders of magnitude larger than the space-time combinatorial of the set of scheduled routes.
Thanks for coming with me on this trip down Memory Lane. What are GM Cruise/Origin up to these days? Just keep reading. Alain
GM’s plan to deploy self-driving Cruise Origin on hold as feds weigh exemption request
J. LaRean, Updated Feb 25, “General Motors' mission to get 5,000 self-driving Cruise Origin vehicles in cities nationwide hangs on whether federal regulators will grant the automaker's request to exempt the vehicle from federal safety
standards.
GM plans to start building the Origin at Factory Zero in Detroit/Hamtramck this year but needs approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to put the vehicles on the roads. The Origin is a small bus-like vehicle that
will transport up to six people without a driver. It operates through autonomous technology and has no manual steering controls or pedals.
General Motors' mission to get 5,000 self-driving Cruise Origin vehicles in cities nationwide hangs on whether federal regulators will grant the automaker's request to exempt the vehicle from federal safety standards.
GM plans to start building the Origin at Factory Zero in Detroit/Hamtramck this year but needs approval from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to put the vehicles on the roads. The Origin is a small bus-like vehicle that
will transport up to six people without a driver. It operates through autonomous technology and has no manual steering controls or pedals. "The Cruise Origin is on track to start production this year," said Aimee Ridella, GM spokeswoman. But she is careful
to note, "pending government approval."…” Read more Hmmmm…
OK, now to the present day: Wow! Given the advances that Cruise has made in demonstrating safe driverless operation in San Francisco, coupled with the enormity of the opportunity that Cruise’s driverless stack can make when placed in a vehicle that is welcoming
to shared ridership, there are many reasons to be optimistic about their potential impact in the driverless, share-ride space. Origin coupled with the Cruise driver is an ideal vehicle for the provision of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality MOVES
-style mobility, especially throughout transportation disadvantaged communities.
Origin’s potential is so substantial that NHTSA in its public service role should be seeking to have GM build Origin rather than having GM petition NHTSA for permission. Yes, NHTSA
is responsible for the safety of vehicles, but they also have a public calling to provide mobility; else, the travel safety extremum can be most readily attained by having everyone and everything stay home and not travel. That’s absolutely silly! In this
case, the mobility opportunity is so enormous that NHTSA should work expeditiously with GM to grant this application. As with Nuro, we have an enormous mobility opportunity that conventionally driven vehicles simply can’t deliver; else, they would have done
it many years ago. NHTSA’s mobility responsibility should be demanding that it give Origin the waivers that it needs ASAP, so that society can begin to capture the unique mobility benefits that Origin has the opportunity to deliver. Each day of delay is a
day that the improvement in the quality of life of some individuals, especially some that have been very unfairly disadvantaged by the automobile revolution, is delayed. It is about time that NHTSA does something to improve mobility for those who have been
left behind by that revolution. Why the feet dragging here??? Alain
Alain
Carmakers Are Pushing Autonomous Tech. This Engineer Wants Limits.
C. Metz, Feb. 15, Last fall, Missy Cummings sent a document to her colleagues at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that revealed a surprising trend: When
people using advanced driver-assistance systems die or are injured in a car crash, they are more likely to have been speeding than people driving cars on their own.
The two-page analysis of nearly 400 crashes involving systems like Tesla’s Autopilot and General Motors’ Super Cruise is far from conclusive. But it raises fresh questions
about the technologies that have been installed in hundreds of thousands of cars on U.S. roads. Dr. Cummings said the data indicated that drivers were becoming too confident in the systems’ abilities and that automakers and regulators should restrict when
and how the technology was used.
People “are over-trusting the technology,” she said. “They are letting the cars speed. And they are getting into accidents that are seriously injuring them or killing them.”…”
Read more Hmmmm….
Yup!! Discussion is in
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 304 /
PodCast 304 W/Missy Cummings
Active Driving Assistance Evaluation Report
Staff, January 2023, “…PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT
In line with Consumer Reports’ mission to create a fair, safe, and consumer-driven marketplace, this report has been written for the industry to provide more explanation and guidance on the state of Active Driving Assistance systems based on our recent evaluations.
CR’s evaluations focus on real-world driving experience, consumer survey data, and experts’ insights, keeping safety at the forefront.
Previous Testing and Reports We examine systems that assist with vehicle speed (Adaptive Cruise Control) and steering (Lane Centering Assist). Active Driving Assistance
(ADA) is the combination of when Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) and Lane Centering Assistance (LCA) are active simultaneously. CR first began evaluating
Active Driving Assistance in 2018, testing four of these systems. The testing procedures and report influenced how other organizations, such as IIHS and Euro NCAP, would begin evaluating the same types of systems. Testing expanded to include
18 systems in 2020—one from each major automaker and one aftermarket device.
CR also works with other organizations to test ADAS systems, such as the MIT AVT (Advanced Vehicle Technology) consortium, where data has been collected in naturalistic
studies from hundreds of thousands of miles of real-world driving. Collaborative relationships with global testing organizations regarding specifics in metrics and scoring ensure that CR’s testing program is robust and aligned in terms of capabilities as well
as driver safety…” Read more Hmmmm….
A really good report. Discussion is in . Discussion is in
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 303 /
PodCast 303 W/Kelly Funkhouser, Consumer Reports
SF Officials Describe Chaos From
Cruise, Waymo Cars as They Try To Slow Their Rollout
K. Truong, Jan 30, “Firefighters were battling a major
house fire near the intersection of Hayes and Divisadero streets early in the morning of Jan. 22 when a Cruise vehicle with no safety driver started to creep its way into the emergency scene.
Two firefighters stood in front of the car to prevent the vehicle from driving over hoses used to douse the growing inferno, but that didn’t work. As the car continued
to inch forward, one firefighter took quick action and smashed the vehicle’s front window, finally bringing the car to a stop. First responders contacted Cruise, who sent workers to move the vehicle out of the way. …
That was just one of 92 unique incidents between May 29 and Dec. 31—mainly from Cruise—cited by San Francisco transit officials, who are strongly urging for tighter oversight
as “robotaxi” services look to massively expand their operations…
Alain Kornhauser, … pinned the companies’ missteps on an effort to grab market share from Lyft and Uber rather than solving for transportation gaps.
“To me, the shame of these companies is that they have a solution, and they are still looking for a problem,” Kornhauser said. “The objective of this is not a selfie in
a self-driving car; it’s to provide mobility to folks who don’t have it and ultimately improve their quality of life.”…
Read more Hmmmm….
Well said 😊 For a solution (driverless
mobility) that could be doing so much good for so many who have so little mobility that even “transit officials” would be sending them high praise ,they instead seem to be singularly focused on providing yet another alternative to those that already have
too many great mobility options. Their hammer is simply focused on the wrong nail and this is especially debilitating when the first nail is the wrong nail. The self-inflicted pain is so much greater when there is little, if anything, gained by hitting,
let alone missing, the wrong nail. Alain
Despite mounting opposition, the Bay Area’s robotaxis keep racking up
the miles
A. Hawkins, Jan 31, “… .
Cruise
Cruise reported 2,783 paid passenger rides in its fully driverless vehicles — quadrupling the number of rides from the previous quarter. The company’s ridehailing vehicles traversed a total of 26,838.61 miles
during the quarter, which covered September to November 2022….
Waymo
Cruise’s main rival in the robotaxi space, Waymo, didn’t want to comment on the latest CPUC data, but there was still a lot of parse through.
As previously mentioned, Waymo’s Bay Area operations are split between paid rides in vehicles with safety drivers (aka “drivered rides”) and unpaid trips in driverless vehicles. Waymo has a list of pre-approved
members of the public called “Trusted Testers” who ride in these driverless (or “rider-only”) vehicles that sign non-disclosure agreements to test the company’s early technology. But the majority of its trips are in drivered vehicles….
Over three months, Waymo did 183 trips as part of its driverless pilot, ferried 441 passengers, and traversed 3,057 miles. Its drivered vehicles did 6,313 trips,…
Read more Hmmmm….
These systems have barely closed the passenger door and have yet to leave the gate. They aren’t near the runway. Takeoff is a distant vision. Andrew is being way too kind. Alain
Riding Nairobi's Craziest Matatu, Kenya
J. Billam, Feb. 11 ’22, “I show my wild experience riding Nairobi's Craziest
Matatu (local bus) bound for Rongai in Kenya's capital city… “
Watch more Hmmmm...
If we aren’t going to have
Moves-style Autonomous Transit Networks, then
Matatus may well be the answer to safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, and colorful mobility. Millions take them every day in Nairobi, Kenya. Amazing. J
Alain
All Nairobi Matatu Routes at your fingertips!
“ Have you ever found yoursel in town with no idea how to get to a certain destination using Public Transport and you end up calling friends or asking strangers where a certain Matatu stage is?
You are not alone!! Thousands of Nairobians go through this daily!
So us cool peeps at MyRide Africa thought to bring this to an end so that you never get lost in Nairobi again! We have the all new Matatu Map on the App that can help you to find any route in
Nairobi in 3 easy steps…’’ Read more Hmmmm...
Just returned from a trip of a life time to Kenya. Absolutely fantastic experience Alain
S. Still, Jan. 10, Project Overview: University at Buffalo is issuing this Request for Proposals (RFP) to solicit proposals from qualified firms to provide self-driving shuttle vehicles and operations
in the Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus and surrounding neighborhoods. The project is funded by the US Department of Transportation as part of its ITS4US program.
Proposal Date/Time:
February 1, 2023 2:30pm EST. Proposals received after the specified time will not be accepted.
The Request for Proposals (RFP) documents are available now by registering through this link:
https://www.nyscr.ny.gov/adsOpen.cfm Questions can be addressed to David Markey, Senior Buyer, at
[log in to unmask]. ….” Read more Hmmmm...
I love what Dr. Steve Still is trying to do in Buffalo. All the best. Alain
Hmmmm…. Happy New Year! Welcome to the inaugural issue of the 2nd decade of the SmartDrivingCars eLetter.
Much has remained the same:
There are still 3 distinctive markets for SmartDrivingCars:
1.
SafeDrivingCars:
Those in which the automated function are explicitly designed to not only substantially reduce driver misbehavior by constraining the performance characteristic such as incorporating speed
governors that only permit excessive speeds in geofenced locations such as
Watkins Glen International and stretches of the
German Autobahn, but also
automatically intervene to prevent crashes; thus, extending what is done today with
anti-lock brakes and
electronic stability control.
[log in to unmask]" align="left" hspace="2" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_4">Since
the root cause of the vast majority of crashes is driver misbehavior, SafeDrivingCar systems would most effectively achieve public safety aspirations. Unfortunately, there has been essentially no advance in SafeDrivingCars since
NHTSA/FMVSS No. 126 Electronic Stability Control (ESC) rule enacted on 09/09/2011. By being silent on mandates, Washington has not made any substantive progress on road safety in more than a decade. We should all be demanding change!
There have been advances in warnings and turn-off-able systems that are largely
ineffective at addressing chronic misbehavior such as alcohol abuse, tailgating, texting and road rage. Notable outliers that have proven to be effective are
blind spot warnings and
rear automated emergency braking (RAEB). Luckily, both of these systems aren’t perceived by the buying public to be misaligned with the freedom associated with driving one’s own car. These systems are being desired by the marketplace rather than needing
to be mandated. Unfortunately, such market forces are not commensurate with speed governors, ignition locks, attention monitoring and texting prevention systems.
What may be even more dangerous is the evolution of visual entertainment systems such as
Continental’s “pillar2pillar” display. How can a driver pay attention to the road ahead when there is so much to see between the pillars that has nothing to do with driving safely? NHTSA/FMVSS should step in immediately and permit the enabling of these
systems only if speed governors, ignition locks, attention monitoring and texting monitoring systems are also engaged. Just look at
what has been happening since 2010 wrt highway safety. At some point, some OEMs will really focus on safety and create cars that are as dedicated to safety as this mother.
1.
SelfDrivingCars:
Those which allow the driver for some extended period of time to be “feet-off” the brake & throttle, delivering to the driver substantial comfort & convenience, but also “hands-off” the wheel for
shorter periods of time providing a little more [log in to unmask]" align="left" hspace="2" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_3">comfort
& convenience. Absolutely required are “eyes & brain” focused the human task of driving, ready to intervene should the automated driver begin to fail.
As we’ve expected from the beginning, this form of automation has been embraced by car makers because it is highly desired by car buyers, especially when the “feet-off” and “hands-off” features
are promoted without much mention of the “eyes&brain-on” requirement. These features, including
intelligent cruise control and automated lane centering, have
essentially become standard equipment. More advanced versions such as
Tesla’s FSD command $15k price tags that
are purchased in volume today and whose future inclusion in vehicles allows
MobilEye to tout $3.5B in booked revenue, Continental to feature a partnership with Amberellla and
nVIDEA to make a major automotive announcement at CES 2023 to supply the continued OEM demand to provide such comfort & convenience capabilities to near and longer-term new car buyers.
1.
DriverlessCars:
Those which serve only passengers and/or good from trip start, through finish. Luckily, the notion that individuals might own such vehicles for personal use and/or be able to “AirB&B” them for
others to get from A to B is now realized by essentially everyone as exceedingly naïve. The
Mercedes booth at this year’s CES showed no sign of its
Mercedes Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion | LIVE PREMIERE CES 2015. Yea!
[log in to unmask]" align="left" hspace="2" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_2">Deployment
of fleets of DriverlessCars to move people and/or goods from start to finish has had mixed results. In private settings such as farms, mines, ports and warehouses the capabilities of today’s driverless technology is substantively delivering value to OEMs
such as Caterpillar and John Deer.
Deployment in public spaces for public uses is at best slow and steady. One of the possible highlights, using remote drivers, is that of Halo.ai whose application is only for the empty repositioning
of vehicles in the shared-use car space. I was thoroughly impressed with their application of driverless technology to not move people or goods, but to simply assist in the management of cars to efficiently deliver a shared car to a customer location and
to reposition that asset to the next customer. The demands of the driverless system are substantially reduced because there is no one in the car when it is under remotely automated control and that repositioning can be done on the safest road segments and
largely at the safest times. Excellent!
I was also very impressed with the Holon vehicle for use in MOVES-style kiosk2kiosk Autonomous Transit Systems. The vehicle is appropriately accommodates shared rides and the disabled community
With respect to moving people in
MOVES-style kiosk2kiosk shared-ride Autonomous Transit Systems, I was very impressed @ CES 2023 with
the appropriately sized Holon vehicle that is definitely oriented to provide kiosk2kiosk ride-sharing mobility and properly serve the physically disabled community . The smaller
GM/Cruise Origin may well be the leading US-made shared-ride-oriented MOVES-style driverless vehicle opportunity; however, I could not find them at CES. A very similar
Zoox vehicle was displayed @ CES 2023 and also looks very impressive as a MOVES-style shared-ride and wheel-chair friendly vehicle .
The purpose built Waymo vehicle seemed oriented to private ride-hailing and may not be US made. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to have a discussion with anyone @ the Waymo booth to gain any appreciation
for Waymo’s deployment strategy.
With respect to the movement of goods. There were some interesting “last 50-500 feet” sidewalk solutions such as
Ottonomy’s delivery robot.
Alain
Automotive AI Is Making Both Cars and Drivers Better
M. Sena, Dec. 28, “ AUTOMOTIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AAI) is a term that has different meanings, depending upon who is using it. For some, it means completely removing the human from the driving task and turning over control of the vehicle
to software and sensors. For others, the goal of AAI is to supplement and improve the human driver's abilities in order to make driving safer, offer new and better services, and increase the effectiveness of transport management. The latter goal, improving
the driving experience, has proven achievable with AI that accomplishes one or a limited set of objectives. The former goal, removing the human from the driving task, has proven to be devilishly difficult because the car needs to drive at least as well as
a human.
AI that can approximate a human, that has the ability to understand and learn any intellectual task that a human can, is called Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It is also called ‘Strong AI’, with its six major branches: machine learning,
neural networks, robotics, expert systems, fuzzy logic and natural language processing. AI that has proven to be excellent at accomplishing one goal at a time, like playing chess, or interpretring spoken commands or answering questions like APPLE’s SIRI, is
called ‘Weak AI’. ….” Read more Hmmmm…..
If Elon can call FSD "FSD", then Michael can call
AI "AI". (Please at least read
The Turing Test). Both are names that enormously over-state their realities. FSD is not anywhere near Full anything and AI is nowhere near Intelligent. Both do a few cute things in very narrow circumstances and neither can find their way out of a paper
bag. Alain
Autonomous Vehicles Reality Check Part 2: Moving People
R. Bishop, Dec. 22, “ Recent reporting/blogging about AV’s can be maddeningly confusing, because the days of saying anything meaningful about “AV’s” as a singular entity are long past. What’s going on depends on what kind of AV you’re talking
about. Writers and pundits can pontificate about “the trouble in AV City” if they want, but they must first explain what AV sector they’re referring to. To make sweeping statements is meaningless; the dynamics of the technical, operational, and business factors
are too diverse. Thus this three-part article series, my shot at describing the great breadth of today’s AV’s and providing color commentary.
A fundamental AV distinction regards what’s inside the vehicle: people or freight? This Part Two article focuses on moving people. Part Three will focus on moving goods.
Two Distinct Domains: Private or Commercial? ….”
Read more Hmmmm…..
Excellent, must read that among other things makes clear the distinction between what are largely orthogonal markets: Private (selling a vehicle) and Commercial (selling a ride) .
What is missing, especially in the "selling a ride" coordinate is appreciation for the diversity of the "people" being moved. The spectrums spanning poor -> rich; young ->old; able-> dis-able;
conservative -> liberal; .... that reflect not only on when & where each of those individuals choose to go but also on their choice as which commercial AV deployment, they'll choose to make the trip that today isn't made or switch from the way they are going
today.
As we know from the movement of goods, one size doesn't fit all; one deployment doesn't fit all. Pick-ups do well for haulin' some of your own stuff, Class 8's for big valuable stuff. Then
there are flatbeds, tankers, cements, choo choos, boats, ... and so on for very specific stuff. It ends up really mattering what good it is when it comes to figuring out what and how to deploy something to best move it.
My point is the discussion about deployment along the private and especially the commercial domains has failed to recognize the diversity of the customer set and is failing to deploy near-term
capabilities to be better serve the mobility needs of individuals that would be best served by that deployment.
Moving people is a "big-dimensional" market characterized by foudomains: {P, A, B, t} where P = people; A = from location; B = to location; t = time.
Deployment must address not only the diversity of A, B and t but also that of P. In order for an AV deployment to capture a customer it needs to be the best for that customer when that customer
wishes to go from A to B at time t. That's the deployment challenge . The diversity of P is certainly as important as that of A, B and t. To date the deployment focus has been one-size to fit all that has fit very few in the deployed Operational Design
Domain. Alain
Once
You See the Truth About Cars, You Can’t Unsee It
Guest Opinion: A. Ross & J. Livingston,Dec. 15, “ In American consumer lore, the automobile has always been a “freedom machine” and liberty lies on the open road. “Americans are a race of independent people” whose “ancestors came to this
country for the sake of freedom and adventure,” the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce’s soon-to-be-president, Roy Chapin, declared in 1924. “The automobile satisfies these instincts.” During the Cold War, vehicles with baroque tail fins and oodles of
surplus chrome rolled off the assembly line, with Native American names like Pontiac, Apache, Dakota, Cherokee, Thunderbird and Winnebago — the ultimate expressions of capitalist triumph and Manifest Destiny.
But for many low-income and minority Americans, automobiles have been turbo-boosted engines of inequality, immobilizing their owners with debt, increasing their exposure to hostile law enforcement, and in general accelerating the forces
that drive apart haves and have-nots. ….” Read
more Hmmmm….. The fundamentals of our MOVES approach to the deployment is focused directly on providing a high-quality affordable
alternative to this community. Moreover,
the comment that the NYT posted with the article. Alain
I'm going to the moon!!!... Literally!
T. Dodd, Dec. 8, “t's true! I have been chosen as one of the members of the incredible dearMoon mission around the moon on SpaceX's Starship rocket. To learn more about
the mission and to meet the rest of the crew, visit -
http://dearmoon.earth &
https://dearmoon.earth/share_crew/tim... And hear more about the announcement from Yusaku Maezawa!!! -
https://youtu.be/DKNSlL3Inn8... “
Watch more Hmmmm...
So deserving! Tim has done so much to make rigorous “rocket science” understandable by non-rocket scientists while maintaining the rigor. For that substance he has been most justifiable awarded this special honor. Life is good! Tim, you most justifiably
earned this incredible privilege. Full disclosure… I’m a long time subscriber to
Everyday Astronaut. Alain
Argo AI Folded After a Lifeline From Amazon Never Arrived:
Report
P.Holderith, Nov. 22, “The dream of smoking a cigar with the windows up in your self-driving turbine-powered jet car may be on hold. At least, that's what the demise of
Argo AI, backed by monolithic automakers Ford and VW indicated. Before it all came crashing down though, Bloomberg reports Amazon nearly stepped in to keep the ball rolling.
The retail giant, which is rumored to be laying off thousands of employees, was allegedly interested in the technology for use in its Rivian-built delivery vans last year.
However, a struggle to determine how Argo would be governed with three large investors as well as an alleged high cost of the autonomous driving company's tech soured the deal. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, which hasn't done anyone besides defense contractors
any good.
Amazon was reportedly willing to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into the startup. Ford had already invested $1 billion in 2017, followed by an even bigger $2.6
billion pile of cash from Volkswagen. In fact, VW's now-deposed CEO Herbert Diess even met with Jeff Bezos personally to discuss details of a potential deal. This was followed by prototype Argo vehicles running Amazon delivery routes, albeit without dispensing
any packages.
Argo additionally hired 150 people to work on what seemed like a surefire investment from Amazon, but it was for naught. A governing deal couldn't be struck, the global economy was in a further state of disrepair
thanks to that Vlad guy over in Russia—what's his last name again?—and inflation got more serious….”
Read more Hmmmm... Reminiscent
of what Larry Burns recalled in his book “Autonomy: The Quest to Build the Driverless Car―And How It Will Reshape Our World” about a failed “partnership” between Ford
& Waymo that would have “reshaped our world”. Waymo (L), VW (W), Amazon (L), VW(L)… now what? Alain
What Riding in a Self-Driving Tesla Tells Us About the Future of Autonomy
C. Metz, Nov. 14, “Cade and Ian spent six hours riding in a self-driving car in Jacksonville,
Fla., to report this story.
When we decided it was time for lunch, Chuck Cook tapped the digital display on the dashboard of his Tesla Model Y and told the car to drive us to the Bearded Pig, a barbecue
joint on the other side of town.
“I don’t know how it’s gonna do. But I think it’s gonna do pretty good,” he said with the folksy, infectious enthusiasm he brought to nearly every moment of our daylong
tour of Jacksonville, Fla., in a car that could drive itself. …
As the car approached the shadows beneath this mossy canopy, it suddenly changed course, turned sharply right and headed the wrong way down a one-way street: he moment
highlighted the difference between Tesla’s self-driving technology and “robotaxi” services being developed by companies like Waymo, owned by the same parent company as Google, and Cruise, backed by General Motors. The robotaxi companies are trying to reduce
these unexpected moments by tightly controlling where and how a car can drive. But these services will have strict limitations that make the task easier. The cars will travel only in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low
speeds. And company technicians will provide remote assistance to cars that inevitably find themselves in situations they cannot navigate on their own…. "Read
more Hmmmm... This is exactly the basis for our MOVES-style approach to deployment. In the near term, this technology has
a reasonable chance of being good enough if its calibrations (the released version) has been biased to work well in …”
in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds” ,. It must also demonstrated that it does work well (zero disengagements)
in a sufficient subset of the streets in those neighborhoods such that the driver/attendant is not needed to ensure safe operation. Substantially better mobility can then be delivered between many locations throughout those neighborhoods in most weather
conditions than the mobility available today throughout those neighborhoods.
Unless Driverless is substantially better in delivering mobility to some in some places they will never be more that a fad or fashion statement. Unfortunately, that’s
how Driverless has been positioned to date. “My car drives itself! A ride becomes a goofy selfie on TikTok/Instagram/Twitter… Look Mom, no hands!!! Good luck in any repeat customers or near-term RoI.
As we’ve been saying over and over, the substantial value proposition of driverless (or real FSD) is NOT safety (it can be “as safe” but, again,
way too difficult for it to be substantially safer) and, in the near term, not a fashion statement or toy for the rich (way too expensive to create that). It certainly can’t be substantially better than one’s own personal car, although it can come close to
being as good and maybe even arguably better to some.
The attributes that can make Driverless substantially better than all other forms of mobility is its capability to affordability deliver high-quality
(auto-like demand-responsive non-circuitous, 24/7 availability in most weather conditions) mobility affordably while being safe, equitable and environmentally responsive (by facilitating casual ride-sharing when warranted as is done naturally when using elevators).
Such a mobility service is offered by Kiosk2Kiosk elevator-like operation throughout the safest subset of interconnecting streets. We call these
MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks.
Affordability is THE key differentiator. If you are rich enough to afford a car
for yourself and have a driver’s license, then this system isn’t substantially better than what you have now. Neither is it if you can afford to pay and tip an Uber/Lyft gig worker or if your expense account pays for your taxi/limo or black car driver or
if you have a chauffeur. Nor if you live in Manhattan or in the very center of a few of our largest cities. For everyone else (the too young, the too old, the too poor, the sufficiently poor that can’t afford a car for each driver in the family, then
MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks can readily be transformative. Trenton NJ turns out to be one of these communities where 70% of households have access to one or fewer cars. Perth Amboy, NJ,. Cherry Hill, MD, Patterson, NJ, Scranton, PA are similar.
My
Mobility Disadvantage Index for places in New Jersey can be found
here and for the rest of the US,
here.
I am confident that Waymo, Cruise and Tesla could today, make their systems work safely in Trenton and many of the other Mobility Disadvantaged communities if they simply added to their training
set the data from driving between the kiosks in, say Trenton, and generated a ***.Trenton release of their ***Driver to be used exclusively in Trenton to deliver substantially improved mobility to many. Alain
A Deployment Framework for MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks
A. Kornhauser, Nov. 1, "So much has been happening lately on the AV scene. With all these recent changes in mind, it seems a good moment for me to reiterate the basic fundamentals of mobility
and then to restate the context with which I see the potential value of AV technology. In the following presentation, I will identify some pertinent societal challenges where mobility might have an opportunity to substantially improve quality-of-life. Fundamental
to this concept is the deployment of technology that disrupts consumer choice, thus allowing the marketplace to deliver both the economic return on the investment in the technology and to unleash the societal benefits of the improved quality-of-life." Read
more Hmmmm... View
slides,
listen to PodCast and/or
watch a repeat of the presentation that I made at the 2022
UBC International Road Safety Symposium. Alain
Ford,
VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down
K. Korosec, Oct 26, "Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment, is shutting down — its parts being absorbed
into its two main backers: Ford and VW, according to people familiar with the matter.
During an all-hands meeting Wednesday, Argo AI employees were told that some people would receive offers from the two automakers, according to multiple sources who asked to not be named. It was unclear how many would be hired into Ford or VW and which companies
will get Argo’s technology.
Employees were told they would receive a severance package that includes insurance and two separate bonuses — an annual award plus a transaction bonus upon the deal close with Ford and VW. All Argo employees will receive these. For those who are not retained
by Ford or VW, they will additionally receive termination and severance pay, including health insurance. Several people told TechCrunch that it was a generous package and that the founders of the company spoke directly to its more than 2,000 employees..." ... Certainly
a "class act" way to shut down.
"...said Farley. “It’s mission-critical for Ford to develop great and differentiated L2+ and L3 applications
that at the same time make transportation even safer.” Farley also insinuated that Ford would be able to buy AV tech down the line, instead of developing it in house. “We’re optimistic about a future for L4 ADAS, but profitable, fully autonomous vehicles
at scale are a long way off and we won’t necessarily have to create that technology ourselves,” ... Read
more Hmmmm... What??? What is "L4 ADAS"??? You are really going to do L3 which many believe is harder than L4. L3 is going to require that Ford accept the safety liability and the "obey all the legal operation" liability for the life of the
vehicle whenever the driver is able to engage that functionality. There is NO WAY Ford or really any OEM is ever going to take on that substantive amount of liability unless there is such an abundance of fine print that it makes Elon's proclamations about
FSD seem like junior varsity.
We all understand that "L2+" is today's "50s-style chrome & fins" propelling the selling cars in showrooms as OEMs have always done. Absolutely no need to get to
driverless (L4 in some societly or commercially viable ODD).
Idf someone does develop (as I quoted last week) Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: "... [I]n
capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs
of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph
A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”, it is going to simply make it available to allow Ford to continue to serve its customers or will use it to crush Ford? Alain
L. Sumagaysay, Oct. 27, "...", Read
more Hmmmm... Another view. Alain
Ford
thinks driver assist is a safer bet than driverless cars, but it’s fooling itself
1.
Hawkins, Oct. 27, "When Ford announced yesterday that it was pulling its support for Argo AI, the autonomous driving startup it had financed since 2017, it cited as one of its reasons a belief
that driver-assist technology will have more near-term payoffs....." Read
more Hmmmm... I agree with Andrew, as I stated above. Alain
Waymo
says it’s bringing robotaxis to L.A.
Russ Mitchell, Oct 19, 2022 “The company, owned by Google parent Alphabet, said Wednesday that it plans to make L.A. its next market. “L.A. is in the top three ride-hailing
markets in the United States and globally,” said Saswat Panigrahi, the company’s chief product officer. “The commercial opportunity is huge.”
But Waymo offered scant information about its plans, including when the commercial service will begin and how extensive the service’s coverage will be….” Read
more Hmmmm... or what the service will be? Ride-hailing??? Compete with Uber/Lyft… good luck! After leading the "testing phase" for the last 13 years, this is their plan for the "deployment phase". So disappointing! Doesn’t come close
to meeting Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: "... [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…-
competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph
A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”. Alain
The
Long Run to Autonomous Vehicles
K. Pyle, Oct. 13, "Autonomous vehicles (AV) provide the opportunity to correct government transportation failures is how the Brookings
Institution’s Clifford Winston characterized the potential opportunity provided by autonomous vehicles. Winston spoke to the possible economic impact of autonomous vehicles in an online media briefing (YouTube
video) that also included speakers from Princeton and the Reason Foundation who touched on the technology and the role of public policy and regulation. A lively question and answer period followed the briefing...." Read
more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you. Excellent. Alain
Tesla Staff, Sept. 30, "Streamed live..." Read
more Hmmmm... I'm not much of a fan of humanoids so you may skip the first hour; however, starting @ 0:58:00 - FSD Intro, the next hour and a half is substantive and a must watch. My takeaway remains driverless "everywhere" is so enormously challenging
that the near-term opportunity (next 10 years) to sell such a vehicle to a consumer is simply unthinkable. The terms & conditions would need to be so onerous making the total addressable market essentially null.
That said, I suspect that there exist some, possibly many, societally beneficial Operational Design Domains (ODD), where "FSD 69.2.2" or near term releases can deliver
safe driverless mobility. This deployment strategy is what I with the technical support of CARTS, Inc. have decided to focus on. Alain
Batteries: Theme
of the Next Mad Max Dystoposeries
Sept 28, M. Sena, "IN THE PAST, when a country believed it was not receiving enough of a resource that it felt it needed and deserved, it went to war to take it. Gold,
silver, tea, spices, cotton, cod, coal, grain, oil and many other commodities have been the causes of nations attempting to steal land and seas from other nations. There are countless numbers of movies that show us the horrors of war, but the postapocalyptical
MAD MAX film series gives us a glimpse of what it could look like after all the big wars have been fought and lost. Warlords and their gangs prey on survivors of the wars that caused societies everywhere to collapse. They battle each other over gasoline, water
and food. Are we trading wars over oil for wars over lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earth metals, jumping from one frying pan into another? As governments continue with their policies to dramatically increase demand for these commodities, the chances for
expanded conflicts increase. In many areas, they have already begun. ..." Read
more
Hmmmm... Another excellent issue. Enjoy! Also watch or listen:ZoomCast
285 /PodCast
285
Alain
Tesla
Releases FSD Beta 10 69 With New Occupancy Network
Tesla Daily, Aug. 22, " Looking at first impressions from Tesla’s release of FSD Beta 10.69..." Read
more Hmmmm...
Be sure to watch Ashok
Elluswamy's "Occupancy
Networks" keynote presentation at CVPR on June 20, 2022. Very impressive, especially the use of training videos and it realization in FSD 10.69
Also pertinent are video demonstrations of:
1.
Tesla
FSD Beta V 10.69 Dominates Downtown Driving
2.
FSD
Beta 10.69 (2022.16.3.10) Release Notes
3.
FSDBeta
v10.69 - HEAVY TRAFFIC - Unprotected Left Turns... Amazing that such turns are legal let alone FSD's routing algorithm deicing that this is on the best way to go. Safety must not be part of its objective function C'mon
Elon.
4.
FSD
Beta V 10.69 Initial Impressions. My impression is that 10.69 drove better than this tester who seemed intent on driving aggressively and not wanting to yield to pedestrians in crosswalks. Hopefully no one at Tesla pays attention to this guy.
5.
Bullish
News From Giga Berlin Tours, Production Rumors, Terrible Toyota
6.
The
Tesla Semi Is Officially Here!
My takeaway from the above is that FSD 10.69 is impressive but not near "Full" anything, especially if put in the hands of some individual who themselves may well
be a menace on the road.
While not being near "Full" anything, FSD may be nearing the point in which it is FSD within some useful Operational Design Domain.
It is one thing to be able to safely negotiate a trips segment: safely drive straight down a well marked lane in clear weather, safely make an unprotected left, safely
stop behind a stop line at a stop sign, ... Each is an important achievement.
It is a whole other challenge to be able to safely go from some origin to some destination thus delivering useful mobility to some person or some thing safely
without any disengagements. The ensemble of these origin-destination pairs would define the ODD for FSD. To date that ODD has been essentially null. The challenge for subsequent releases of FSD may well be to begin to explicitly identify FSD's ODD sand
assess the extent to which these ODDs have emerged from the null state to begin to safely provide some useful mobility to the general public. Alain
Asking FSD to be "Full" everything, everywhere to everyone is simply a naive unachievable objective. To me a better question may well be in which Operational Design
Domain is FSD indeed Full Self-Driving?
Once that ODD is determined, restrict FSD to operate ONLY in that ODD.
Tesla must accept the responsibility allowing FSD to be engaged ONLY when the car is operating in Operational Design Domain where Tesla has certified that FSD drives
safely. Else, FSD safely pull over, stop disengage and turn the responsibility of continuing on to the human driver. It should be Tesla's responsibility to allow FSD to be turned on and the determination of when and where it ceases to move because Tesla
must be held responsible and liable if it something bad happens when it is driving. If I'm driving I'm responsible and liable. Not my passenger who may or may not be paying attention to what is going on. If FSD is driving it must accept that responsibility
and not expect the passenger to help out. The word "Self" implies "Full"; else the product should be called Partnership-driving or Team-driving or ??? Alain
Can
Tesla Data Help Us Understand Car Crashes?
C. Metz, Aug. 18, "Shortly before 2 p.m. on a clear July day in 2020, as Tracy Forth was driving near Tampa, Fla., her white Tesla Model S was hit from behind by another
car in the left lane of Interstate 275.
It was the kind of accident that occurs thousands of times a day on American highways. When the vehicles collided, Ms. Forth’s car slid into the median as the other one, a blue Acura sport utility vehicle, spun across the highway and onto the far shoulder.
After the collision, Ms. Forth told police officers that Autopilot — a Tesla driver-assistance system that can steer, brake and accelerate cars — had suddenly activated her brakes for no apparent reason. She was unable to regain control, according to the police
report, before the Acura crashed into the back of her car.
But her description is not the only record of the accident. Tesla logged nearly every particular, down to the angle of the steering wheel in the milliseconds before impact. Captured by cameras and other sensors installed on the car, this data provides a startlingly
detailed account of what occurred, including video from the front and the rear of Ms. Forth’s car.
It shows that 10 seconds before the accident, Autopilot was in control as the Tesla traveled down the highway at 77 miles per hour. Then she prompted Autopilot to change lanes..." Read
more Hmmmm...
We've been calling for an independent analysis of the Tesla data for some time. Privacy is easy to protect. There is no need to know who owns or was operating each Tesla. Also see ZoomCast
280 Alain
Tesla's
2022 Shareholder Meeting with Elon Musk
E. Musk, Aug. 4, .” Read
more Hmmmm... Watch the Q & A portion starting about an hour in from the start. Watch especially the comments about his vision of the Tesla RoboTaxi (aka driverless cars, what I prefer to call autonomousTaxis or aTaxis, the new "Modern Transit").
The key visions are:
@
t=6375 ... the issue of how he sees these driverless vehicles being operated (deployed).
While I don't agree with the option of owning your own and renting it out "AirB&B -style where B&B = Mobility". It is easier and more likely to begin by having a
Professional entity managing a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis that provide mobility to the everyone in the community. This will be the the "Modern Public Transit". An example being Trenton MOVES using a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis.
For these RoboTaxis to be attractive to a fleet operator, they will need to be styled differently than consumer versions that are sold to individuals. The RoboTaxi
will need to be easy to get in and out and interface well with wheelchairs. They'll need to accommodate ride-sharing (personTrips are the source of the revenue, not vehicle sales). They should have 4-wheel steering so they will never need to back up in
stub-end operation. He has re imagined the pickup truck. Certainly, he can re-imagine a car focused on providing safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable high-quality mobility throughout a community.
At the end of addressing the future of Robotasis he states ..." assuming we do all these things, I think, probably,
Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world."
@ t=7057 Elon
is asked "when will Tesla launch the first pilot city for the RoboTaxi business?
Elon dodged the question by stating that he is focused on doing driverless everywhere, even in every imaginable simulation of the real world. Consequently, once achieved,
it could be released everywhere al at once.
While a great vision, this is simply not realistic. He started selling Teslas in California, not throughout the whole country. He fully understands that one must
crawl before one walks, before one runs.
As you might suspect, I have the ideal "California" for him to first deploy his RoboTaxis and its not California or Arizona. It is New Jersey: Trenton, NJ or Perth
Amboy, NJ or Patterson, NJ or many other cities in New Jersey where the mobility offered by Tesla RoboTaxis would be life changing to many while becoming an interesting alternative to everyone else. DoJo can more readily regress the coefficients to deliver
safe driverless operation within any one of these Operational Design Domains (ODD) rather than trying to do them all simultaneously. Coefficients can/should be tied to ODDs rather than having one "magical" set that works in all ODDs. It is trivial for the
Operating system to load the coefficients that work best in theRoboTaxi's current ODD. This should allow RoboTaxis to demonstrate their technical, economic and societal virtues much sooner in these communities. Market success will fuel expansion and replication
in the delivery of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility so that is spreads beyond New Jersey to California and beyond just like the purchase of the first Teslas spread from California to New Jersey and beyond.
@ t=7417 Elon
is asked about the Boring Company.
True, if one could bore tunnels inexpensively, it would be great for longer distance travel. Certainly, all of the freeways in and around cities would be placed
underground. High Speed rail on the NorthEast Corridor can only go underground for long stretches. Bringing the Dinky to a Nassau Street terminus must be done underground. By the way Washington Road should be underground eradicating the cancer that it is
as a surface street severing the Princeton Campus. Then there is Rt. 29 that devastated Trenton by barricading the western part of Trenton from the Delaware River and Rt. 129 that severed neighborhoods; a scenario that was repeated in essentially every city
to accommodate through-moving surface travel. They should all go underground. There is much good that could be done. The challenge is the above if.
@ t=6665
"when disengaging autoPilot with the wheel, the accelerator stays on. Please fix it!"
Maybe... touching or not touching the steering wheel has little in common with acceleration (and braking) which is (are) controlled by the feet. The steering control
should be readily overcome by input of a torque on the steering wheel; however, the steering control should revert to dominance if the driver ceases to exhort a torque on the wheel. Moreover, torquing the steering wheel should not disengage the brake or the
throttle.
With respect to the driver actions on the brake and throttle:
Driver input from the throttle should have precedence over "intelligent cruise control (ICC)" input to the throttle and brake and should NOT turn off the system simply
because the driver touched the accelerator pedal.
For the brake, it is a little different. Tapping the brake should turn off the acceleration function of the ICC. Acceleration should remain off until the driver
explicitly re-engages it. Moreover, driver input to the brake, if less than what the ICC calls for, should always be dominated by the ICC's desire to brake. Tapping of the brakes should not turn off the braking function of the ICC. That intelligent
brakig function should continue to keep m fro getting to close to the vehicle in front of me. The acceleration function has been turned off so I won't accelerate into the back of the car ahead of me and the braking function should continue to do its best
to keep a proper separation between me and the vehicle ahead. Turning the whole system off placing me completely in control should require an explicit action by me that indicates I'm knowingly usurping responsibility.
I believe ICC should be on all the time. Driver sets the speed and separation (or it is done automatically relative to the speed limit, weather conditions and road
curvatures). Driver can choose to override the throttle and override the braking at any time; however, in the absence of overrides, the ICC is in charge. Alain
GM's
Cruise robotaxi unit drives deeper into the red
Reuters, July 26, "General Motors Co (GM.N) has lost nearly $5 billion since 2018 trying to build a robotaxi business in San Francisco, and now as the automaker's Cruise
unit starts charging for rides, the losses are accelerating.
GM said on Tuesday it lost $500 million on Cruise during the second quarter - more than $5 million a day - as it began charging for rides in a limited area of San Francisco. ... that may be the case for
the last quarter, but the chart below from GM's
6/30/222 10-Q Shows ($800M) for the last 6 months or $4.38/day when divided by 182.625 Whew!
“Cruise's costly effort to transform autonomous driving technology from a long-term research project to a profit-spinning business comes as investors are backing away from riskier bets on technology, and reassessing how soon robot vehicles of any kind will
be deployed in large scale on public roads.
Shares of autonomous vehicle technology company Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR.O), for example, are down 80% for the year to date. Shares of robo-trucking company TuSimple
Holdings Inc (TSP.O) have lost more than 70% of their value. Some automakers, including Ford Motor Co (F.N), have scaled back investments in automated vehicle units, or taken on partners to share the costs....
Cruise's losses for the first six months of the year deepened to $900 million from $600 million during the same period in 2021 - when Cruise was not charging for rides.
Higher compensation costs to keep staff on board after putting aside plans for an IPO were one factor in the results, GM executives said.
Chief Executive Mary Barra said on Tuesday she is still bullish on Cruise, and reaffirmed a forecast that the unit could generate $50 billion a year in revenue from automated vehicle services and technology by 2030. .” Read
more Hmmmm... Nice optimism. The source of the reality check above comes from GM's
6/30/222 10-Q. Start reading from page 41. then on page 43:
Whoa! The only nice thing that can be imagined is by assuming that they've had essentially zero revenue, the operating costs have "only" been $800M for the last 6
months. That is non-small.
I'd like to suggest that the strategy of trying to create a profitable driverless mobility service for folks that already have 2 or more cars in their garage, have
excellent public transit service or travel on expense accounts when wanting to go to between the airport and "downtown" may not be the wisest way to launch such a mobility service. There is little opportunity to be substantially better or even equivalent
to what those potential customers already have. Little opportunity to get loyal and repeat customers. The focus to date has been too heavily weighted on getting the technology to work for folks who already have more mobility options than they know what to
do with. Great for click-bait; challenging for the 10-Q. What must Waymo's 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
Capturing loyal and repeat customers is really tough when the competition is excellent and entrenched. While pricing can be high, volume is almost non-existent even
with nominal pricing. Except for the novelty, the marketplace in the Chandlers and SFs is essentially non-existent. To date those markets have been quiet, at best. What must Waymo's 10-Q Cash Flow chart look like?
It astonishes me that to date none of the leading driverless companies have spent any money trying to serve the needs of folks that don't own cars, aren't traveling
using someone else's money, nor have access to a good public transit system focused on their mobility needs.
These folks definitely can't pay as much for a ride as those that are being chased by Cruise & Waymo, but there are more of them. Moreover, its almost trivial to
provide them with a mobility option that is substantially better than what they have today for many, if not most, of their daily personTrips.
This is the market that we've found in New Jersey; in Trenton & Mercer County, Perth Amboy & Middlesex County and Patterson & Passaic County. We haven't even begun
looking in Newark, Camden, Atlantic City and the rest of New Jersey.
The excuse seems to have been that it would be too expensive to deal with NJ's bad weather, even though, we've made it clear that New jersey is not interested in a
365.25 days/yr. mobility solution. We'd be more than pleased with a 350 days/yr. operation. New Jersey has more than 350 good days a year. We aren't so entitled that we can't wait for the hurricane to blow through, the snow to be shoveled or the fog to
lift before we go about our normal business. We enjoy the "snow day" at home. We are convinced that is actually easier and cheaper to capture recurring and loyal NJ customers.
The rule-of-thumb for a Trenton-MOVES style operation is: a vehicle needs to serve at least 100 personTrips/day. With slightly better ride-sharing and time-of-day
pricing, one might be able to get to 150 personTrips/day. To cover a fleet of 100 vehicles, ridership needs to be about 10k to 15k personTrips/day. This kind of utilization leads to per personTrip capitalization costs of less that $1/personTrip for vehicles
costing upwards of $150k @ interest rates upward of 7.5%. That is to say, $1/personTrip readily covers the vehicle capital costs even at moderate scales.
Given that trips on-average are less than five miles, vehicle operating costs are less than $1/personTrip.
Management costs are largely fixed. With volume the per personTrip burden decrease enormously, and can't be more than $0.50/personTrip.
Break-even fare is thus roughly $2.50/personTrip.
An average market fare of $3.50/personTrip delivers a profit of >$1.00/personTrip, >$100/vehicle-day.
A fleet of 100 vehicles delivers a profit >$10k/day, >$3.0M/yr. in the Trenton ODD serving 10k personTrips/day.
From where do these 10k personTrips/day materialize?
Essentially all the riders of NJ Transit rail would love a simple reliable convenient way to get to & from the train. By on-demand service within the community around
the train station, loyalty upwards of 80% could be achieved for anyone wanting to go to NYC or within walking distance to any other NJ train station. For Trenton that represents a marketplace of 8,000 personTrips/day that currently drive to & from the station
every day and those that currently don't use the train that would if it was easy and reliable to them to get to AND from the station, when they wanted to get to and from there. Half of the 10k would easily come from serving the Trenton Train Station.
Trenton Central HS has 1,800 students. More than 1,500 live more than a 10 minute walk to the TCHS. Truancy is proportional to how far a student has to walk to school.
Trenton MOVES could readily serve 1,250 of these students every day. That's 1/4 of the needed 10k.
We only need another 2.5k personTrips and we haven't even begun dealing with getting people to & from work in Trenton, doctors, shopping visiting friends, etc. needed
by the 70% of Trenton households who have access to one or zero cars. 100 vehicles serving 10k personTrips/day making >3.0M/year @ an average fare of $3.50/personTrip is just the start of a profitable business. Employing 200 vehicles costing at most $100k
at interest rates of less than 7.5% serving 150 personTrips/day at fares of $3.00/personTrip makes way more than $5M per year.
Expanding Trenton MOVES throughout Mercer County giving the opportunity to increase average fare (because of the longer personTrips) to maybe $5/personTrip keeping
utilization @ 150 personTrips/vehicle-day of a fleet of 1,000 vehicles and doing a little better on interest rates and cap costs can lead to profits of >$10M/year for Trenton/Mercer MOVES. There are at least 10 replications of Trenton/Mercer MOVES that could
be done in NJ by 2030 utilizing a fleet of at least 10,000 vehicles leading to a profit of >$100M/year.
This kind of success leads to having many more people leave their cars at home and frequenting NJ-MOVES as their mobility system. This could lead to a NJ-Moves fleet
of >100,000 vehicles is generating a profit of >$1B.
If Mary expects this to be achieved by 2030 and replicated in the 50 other states (on average) as the Universe she expects to exist in 2030, I'm hopeful but skeptical.
My point is, that starting with Trenton MOVES as the big bang that achieved her vision seems to me to be a lot clearer that where Cruise/Waymo have chosen to try to create a Big Bang. Seems as if she and Kyle should be taking Trenton and New Jersey much more
seriously. Please call me! Alain
Baidu
unveils autonomous vehicle without steering wheel
Reuters, July 16, "China's search engine giant Baidu Inc on Thursday unveiled its new autonomous vehicle (AV) with a detachable steering wheel, with plans to put it to
use for its robotaxi service in China next year.
Cost per unit will drop to 250,000 yuan ($37,031.55) for the new model, compared with 480,000 yuan for the previous generation, Baidu said in a statement.
“This massive cost reduction will enable us to deploy tens of thousands of AVs across China," Baidu's chief executive Robin Li said at the Baidu World conference. "We are moving towards a future where taking a robotaxi will be half the cost of taking a taxi
today.” Read
more Hmmmm... Really?? See video. Where do I buy 10 for
immediate delivery to New Jersey with option to buy 100 more by EoY'22 and 1st inline to buy 1,000 more by EoY'23. eMail me!!!
While the design is certainly not ideal for "Trenton MOVES" or "Perth Amboy MOVES" they would be good enough to get started with addressing the "Sociology Challenges"
of MOVES-style deployments. And the price is right if this isn't total click-bait. But... that is a really big if .
�� Alain
NHTSA
Releases Initial Data on Safety Performance of Advanced Vehicle Technologies
June 15, Press release, "Today, as part of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s efforts to increase roadway safety and encourage innovation, the National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration published
the initial round of data it has collected through its Standing General Order issued last year and initial
accompanying reports summarizing this data.
The SAE Level 2 advanced driver assistance systems summary report is
available here, while the SAE Levels 3-5 automated driving systems summary report is
available here. Going forward, NHTSA will release data updates monthly..." Read
more Hmmmm... This is a good start; however, as NHTSA repeats many times, this is just a start and there are many "data limitations". The most severe may well be the possibility of substantial "sampling
bias", the most severe of which is that each OEM sourced the reported data very differently. That makes the data between OEMs incomparable.
Also un reported is any measure that would enable a "crash rate" for an OEM to be determined. One only has a numerator value but no denominator value.
Finally, 392 crashes of "Level 2" cars were reported during the "10" month period of July 2021 and May 15, 2022. About 12
million vehicles are involved in traffic crashes every year among the 283 million vehicles that operate in the US. Assuming any one vehicle is unlikely to be involved in more than one crash per yer, it means that each vehicle, on average is involved in
12M/283M = 0.0424 crashes per year. Thus, if these ADAS cars were involved in crashes at the average rate, and had their ADAS on all the time, the 500 vehicle crashes per year contained in these data would expect to be generated from a fleet of only about
11,800 vehicles (or 0.0042% of the vehicles ("everything being equal", ADAS on all the time.).
Consequently, either, ...
1.
These system outrageously reduce crash probabilities, and/or
1.
maybe some, but we're probably not much luckier.
2.
very few of the cars in use during that "10" month period had Level 2 capabilities, and/or
1.
unfortunately, the VIN number doesn't identify these cars and only Tesla announces how many sold (I may have missed the reportings)
3.
very few of the drivers of those cars rarely engaged the Level 2 features, and/or
1.
likely. Only Tesla releases data on the utilization of its level 2 features but does so only in aggregate terms that don't allow for correction of sampling bias associated with engagement
in "easy" driving conditions versus "challenging" driving conditions.
4.
enormous under counting
1.
likely, only Tesla has the opportunity to either "know all" or sample effectively because of their OtA
monitoring of its vehicles. Everyone else has conveniently kept their heads in the sand. Mercedes didn't report any; however, during that period I think my Intelligent Cruise Control and Lane Centering were engaged when I hit a deer. Mercedes must not
have been watching me, I didn't report it and I didn't get the memo that informed me to do anything.
Anyway. It is a start and at least to me the numbers are not startling.
What needs improvement is sourcing of the incidents. Maybe OtA should be mandated. At minimum, the VIN should specify the existence of theses capabilities. Then
normal police reportings can begin to "automatically" access the "black
box event recorders" (see also Accident data recorder and NHTSA)
that are in most cars today. Unfortunately, privacy
concerns makes this not-easy. So here we are. It wont be easy to do much better, but we should continue to try.
What the data do point out is that a substantial number of the crashes involved the rear ending of a stationary object. I have pointed out repeatedly that the source
code of these systems explicitly disregard stationary objects in the lane ahead. Justifying this explicit process is that current sensors incur unacceptable false positives when trying to determine if sufficient headroom exists under detected stationary object
in the lane ahead. Thus, to avoid braking in response to these rare false positives, stationary objects in the lane ahead are all assumed to be "pass under-able".
As one drives, one encounters many stationary objects in the lane ahead. These are readily sensed and precisely located ahead. Readily sensed are overpasses, signs,
tree canopies, traffic lights, ... all of which can usually be readily passed under. (As can vehicles ahead that come to rest in vehicle-follower mode. These are not disregarded because one is in vehicle-follower mode.)
But when one is in vehicle-leader mode and one encounters a stationary object ahead, I believe, most, if not all "Level 2" systems disregard that object and assume
the car can pass underneath. So if you are in vehicle leader mode and come over the crest of a hill to be confronted with a stopped object ahead, your system will disregard that object. Similarly, if the vehicle that you are following changes lanes forcing
you to become a leader, any stationary object ahead will be disregarded. Alain
3 minute Promo: https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
Dr. Steve
Still's Tribute to Heywood Patterson
S. Still, June 3, "... Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. "That's
what eh did all the time," Deborah Patterson said. "That's what the loved to do". ..." Watch
Video Hmmmm... A principal reason for "Trenton MOVES"-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson "loved to do" for the
many. Alain
The
Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles
M. Sena, May 24, "New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel
with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month’s the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good
idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.
There is no Musings in this month’s issue. Instead, I have put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric vehicles.
Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. ..." Read
more Hmmmm... Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain
PAVE
VIRTUAL PANEL “AVS AND PUBLIC GOOD: TRENTON MOVES”
PAVE, May 4, "Autonomous vehicle technologies offer incredible potential: they could make our highways safer, they could offer new mobility options for people who can’t
drive, and they could help create a more equitable transportation system for those who are not well-served by our current system.
During the month of May, we are highlighting places where AVs are in use — today — being deployed, tested, and used for public good. We want to look at examples of the technology being used to serve food deserts, to expand access to rural communities, to offer
new accessibility options, and more.
We are starting with the Trenton MOVES initiative, which is the first large-scale urban transit system in America based entirely on self-driving shuttles. The shuttles, which carry four to eight passengers, serve traditionally underserved Trenton neighborhoods,
where 70% of households have limited access to a single automobile, or no access at all. Our panelists will detail the program, describing how it works, the results it has achieved, and their vision for the future......" Read
more Hmmmm... Very nice. Be sure to watch
video and see ZoomCast 267 Alain
NJDOT
Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program
P. Keller, April 29, "New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the
City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton....." Read
more Hmmmm... Very nice. Alain
April 21, "CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at #CoMotionMiami that:
Hmmmm... Yup! See
ZoomCast265 Alain
Musk
promises 'dedicated robotaxi' with futuristic look from Tesla
H. Jin, April 6, "Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a "dedicated" self-driving taxi that will "look futuristic," Chief Executive
Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.
The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1 billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new headquarters.
"Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the factory...." Read
more
Hmmmm... Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already
have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma's house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.
Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy
and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to "Massive
Scale" scale and Massive Profitability.
RoboTaxis' evolution to "Massive
Scale" is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn't seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality
of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.
Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. "Safe" is "safe", but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available.
For the rich, that's where they've already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently,
the service is used primarily for taking selfies.
For those that don't have their own car for whatever reason (can't drive, don't want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful.
Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.
Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive
Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;
1.
those that don't already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.
2.
those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.
These are the customers of Trenton
MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.
They'll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral! You'll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden,
Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, .....
That's the natural road to "Massive
Scale" for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.
"Massive
Scale" starts with Trenton
MOVES. Alain
Taking
our next step in the City by the Bay
The Waymo Team, March 30, "This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer
to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we’ve begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of
Waymo One riders we’ve been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives...." Read
more Hmmmm... Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually delvier "Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, HIgh-quality
Mobility" that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.
Let's look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers...
Trenton:
Population: 90,000.
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000
IntraTrenton: 150,000
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity:
VehicleTrips/Day: 50
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip
Electricity + maintenance + management + ... = $0.57/PersonTrip
Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million
IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
Operational Productivity
VehicleTrips/Day: 60
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43
Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57
Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00
Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000*$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year
90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M*3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value poposition could hae the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)
Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn't be completely ignoring me. I guess I'm missing something.
Maybe someone else will call me? �� Alain
Moving
Forward with Trenton MOVES
K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the
February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..." Read
more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
Smart
Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving
Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of
the event held on February 9th." Read
more Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain.
W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton
Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton
Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originally announced
by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office,
NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles.
Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.
The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022 in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to
attend. ...." Read
more Hmmmm... Another real milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the 5thPrinceton
SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES' mobility objectives (Safety, Equity,
Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together
in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, *69, *71, P03, P27
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall |
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