Friday, Nov. 17, 2023

November 17, 2023

45th edition of the 11th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

UPCOMING LAUNCH: STARSHIP’S SECOND FLIGHT TEST

Staff, Nov. 17, “The second flight test of a fully integrated Starship is set to launch Saturday, November 18. A twenty-minute launch window opens at 7:00 a.m. CT.

      A live webcast of the flight test will begin about 35 minutes
      before liftoff, which you can watch here and on [X @SpaceX](https://twitter.com/SpaceX). As is the case with all developmental testing,
      the schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to
      stay tuned to our X account for updates. …" [Read More](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cyrusfarivar/2023/11/06/under-fire-over-robotaxi-safety-gm-halts-production-of-cruise-driverless-van/?sh=7a9077af79a4) Hmmmm….
        Can't wait.  Here with Elizabeth and 9 of my students.   :-)
        See [Pre-Launch ZoomCast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zGvbGH_Lsg) below . Alain

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      tap if you trust this link.">

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Summit

Phoenix

Under Fire Over Robotaxi Safety, GM Halts Production Of Cruise Driverless Van

C. Farivar, Nov. 6, “Reeling from a month in which the California DMV yanked Cruise’s permits for its self-driving robotaxis and the company paused all operations, Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt held an all hands meeting Monday to explain how the company was planning to address concerns that its autonomous vehicles are not yet safe enough to operate. One of the very first announcements: pausing production of a fully autonomous van called the Origin, which Cruise parent company GM was planning to ramp up in the imminent future.

According to audio of the address obtained by Forbes, Vogt remarked on the company’s recent decision to halt driverless operations across its entire autonomous vehicle fleet, telling staff that “because a lot of this is in flux, we did make the decision with GM to pause production of the Origin.”? …” Read More Hmmmm…. Pausing is fine and likely a good decision; although, pauses necessarily incur additional cost; else, we would all pause all of the time. What is fundamentally troubling here is that one incident that could easily be characterized as a situation in which “the good actors”, while doing everything right, unfortunately tried to do even a little more good, which unpredictably set off a chaotic effect, well-known in the mathematics of non-linear dynamical systems as Chaos theory.

What just happened? What have we learned? The ironies abound.

San Francisco is turning into THE “Training Set” of both what to do and what not to do for those building AI models for “The Real Case for Driverless Mobility” and for those struggling to do good for society.

The biggest lesson that is staring us in the face is that it is really important for all in this business to be able to collaborate and share as much as possible and safety related information including safety scenarios and approaches to being able to safely address those scenarios. These companies should NOT be competing on safety, because safety is a necessary condition. Unsafeness of one reflects poorly on all. The first legislation that Congress should pass of this technology should focus on anti-trust immunity to this industry related to safety. Safet is everyone’s responsibility. We’ve benefited enormously by cooperating on safety in the airline industry. Alain

Monday, June 26 2023

State regulators track robotaxi collisions, but they don’t track data on traffic flow issues, such as street blockages or interference with firetrucks.

PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles

Cost:

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Friday, Nov. 10, 2023

44th edition of the 11th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

Under Fire Over Robotaxi Safety, GM Halts Production Of Cruise Driverless Van

What just happened? What have we learned? The ironies abound.

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SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 343 / PodCast 343 w/ Cyrus Farivar Forbes senior staff writer

F. Fishkin, Nov. 9, ”So much Cruise news and not much of it good. Where do robotaxi’s go from here? Forbes senior staff writer Cyrus Farivar joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus Waymo, Britain’s Automated Vehicles Bill, Geely’s Zeekr and more. Tune in and subscribe.

What shouldn’t be forgotten from the past….

Tesla – the Dark Horse MaaS Provider? #SmartDrivingCarSummit

K. Pyle, June 7, 3019, “Could the robotaxi model that Tesla’s Elon Musk has been touting be a successful approach for a Mobility as a Service (MaaS) model? After some recent first-hand experience with the Tesla driving experience, MaaS champion, Princeton’s Dr. Alain Kornhauser states why he believes Musk be on the right path. In the above video, Kornhauser provides an overview of some of the innovative human-machine research initiated at font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(5, 99, 193); text-decoration: underline;” target=”_blank” title=”Original URL: trust this link.”>2019 SmartDrivingCar Summit, the importance of community acceptance of autonomous vehicles and, at approximately 03:55, the discussion of Tesla as a MaaS provider….” Read more Hmmmm…. Possibly truer today. J Alain

SFO rebuffs Waymo — SF ‘guerilla warfare’ vs. robotaxis heats up

J. Eskenazi, Nov 6, “… Most people won’t either, which explains why private transit to and from SFO is such a potential gold mine. When app-based ride-hail companies like Uber won the right to pick up and drop off San Francisco airport passengers it was a big, big deal. If and when autonomous vehicles can do the same — as they already can with Waymo in Phoenix, Arizona — that, too, would be huge.

Via public records requests, Mission Local obtained months of back-and-forths between SFO officials and Waymo employees hoping to get In California, driverless cars are regulated by both the state Public Utilities Commission and Department of Motor Vehicles, and it will require a number of steps on the statewide level to even get things to the point where SFO can give Waymo, Cruise, et al. the ability to do what Waymo is already doing in Phoenix. But, in the end, SFO is operated by the city — and this will loom large.

While SFO officials noted within the email exchanges that they were not yet on-board with the “phases” and timelines proposed by Waymo, they were okay with the company “mapping” the airport. This would entail a Waymo vehicle, operated by a human being, scanning the airport’s roadways in advance of driverless vehicles rolling through autonomously in the future. …” Read more Hmmmm…. Read on. There is more. Is Waymo working this hard to offer rides to people in the 7x7 that need affordable rides? or is this all about the enormous margin that’s available from airport ride-hailers that today pay a human drive?. More “earning human revenue while incurring robo costs”.

The end of this article has 6 links to former articles that I haven’t covered with many useful lessons to be learned and training data for creating that AI model for deployment of driverless mobility. Alain

Cruise confirms robotaxis rely on human assistance every four to five miles

A. L. Kolodny, Nov 6, “Cruise CEO and founder Kyle Vogt posted comments on Hacker News on Sunday responding to allegations that his company’s robotaxis aren’t really self-driving, but instead require frequent help from humans working in a remote operations center.

B. First, Vogt confirmed that the General Motors-owned company does have a remote assistance team, in response to a discussion under the header, “GM’s Cruise alleged to rely on human operators to achieve ‘autonomous’ driving.”

C. The CEO wrote, “Cruise AVs are being remotely assisted (RA) 2-4% of the time on average, in complex urban environments. This is low enough already that there isn’t a huge cost benefit to optimizing much further, especially given how useful it is to have humans review things in certain situations.” …” Read more Hmmmm…. The CaDMV requires that a central command center where human assistance can be given remotely to help ensure safe, efficient operation. Everyone testing driverless operation has one. I don’t believe that there is any automated operation anywhere in the world that doesn’t have human oversight and human override functionalities. Literally, there is no autonomous operation of anything human-made anywhere, if autonomous means zero human intervention. The ‘2-4% of the time’ quote seems OK on the surface but one really needs to understand the details of how time is measured as well as the types and duration of the remote assistance. Details matter here. More importantly, CA DMV should require substantive public reporting of each remote assistance action for all driverless testing that is testing the efficacy of the command center operation and the testing of driverless operation (although testing of driverless operation should never be done without an attendant on-board). Alain

Road trip! How our cross-country testing helps advance the Waymo Driver

D. The Waymo Team, Nov 6, “Experience is the best teacher, no matter if you’re learning to drive a car or getting to know a new city. The Waymo Driver — our core set of technology comprised of hardware and software that enables autonomous driving — has multiple lifetimes of experience navigating the real world and helping people and things get where they’re going safely. To bring the benefits of our technology to more people in more places and deliver on our mission to improve road safety, we take the Waymo Driver on road trips to regions where the driving culture and conditions differ from the areas we regularly operate.. …” Read more Hmmmm…. Apparently Waymo is coming to Buffalo. Fantastic! Congratulations, Steve! You beat us in Jersey again. When they show up, please take them to the neighborhoods and have them learn what their needs for rides and don’t even show them where the airport is located. Also, remind them that it snows more than 1 inch less than 29 days a year. That leaves at least 330 days a year that they could give safe, affordable rides to many in Buffalo. Plus you are really good at snow removal, so there is an upside to the 330. Alain

China’s Zeekr reveals wider loss in US IPO paperwork, Geely shares fall

F. N. Nishant, Nov 9, “ China’s Zeekr Intelligent revealed wider losses for the first half of the year on Thursday, as the electric car brand made its paperwork public for a stock market listing in New York and said it hoped to use funds raised to expand its product line.

G. Zeekr, owned by Chinese automaker Geely Auto (0175.HK), had confidentially filed for its initial public offering (IPO) in December last year.

H. The filing confirms a report from Reuters on Thursday, which said Zeekr was looking to make its IPO prospectus public this week. Shares in Geely (0175.HK), Zeekr’s parent, fell by more than 2.5% in morning trading on the news of the listing… “. Read more Hmmmm…. Whoa! Buyers Beware. Partners Beware. Alain

Waymo executive: ‘Safety case alone is sufficient’ for self-driving cars

J. Fujita, Nov 9, “A top executive for Alphabet-owned (GOOG,GOOGL) Waymo doubled down on the safety of self-driving cars, even as rival Cruise, the autonomous vehicle venture owned by General Motors (GM), faces increased scrutiny over its technology in the face of recent incidents.

In an interview with Yahoo Finance, chief product officer Saswat Panigrahi pointed to Waymo’s track record, saying that its first million miles of rides have shown no injuries and no contact with pedestrians and cyclists, proving autonomous driving’s value.

“The safety case alone is sufficient because I don’t think we should be accepting something that kills 40,000 people a year in a developed market,” said Panigrahi, pointing to the number of car accidents caused by human drivers. “I think that alone is a sufficient case to be going all in [on autonomous vehicles].”…

Panigrahi explained that the company has virtually simulated driving billions of miles using software prior to launch and continues to have the equivalent of 25,000 Waymo cars testing a myriad of scenarios to ensure safety. …” Read more Hmmmm…. Safety has been at the absolute core of Waymo’s involvement in driverless mobility, and they have achieved a “proof-of-technology” which has safety at its core. They deserve enormous praise. No one has done it better!

I do have one line of questions:

I suspect that they’ve simulated “the Oct 9 GM/Cruise crash”. Did Waymo simulate a similar crash prior to Oct 9? Has Waymo made changes to the Waymo Driver as a result of those simulations. What sensors are used to determine if an object is under the Waymo car or just in front of any of the four wheels?

Unfortunately, their real “save-the-world” opportunity can may only come from the giving of rides to people who really need rides, gaining the praise and appreciation from those folks and eventually converting those that “kill 40,000” to embrace them to give them rides isn’t likely to happen anytime soon.

Alain

Red Cross, Waymo to conduct blood drive in Bay Area

Alex Baker, Nov 6, “ he American Red Cross will be partnering with Waymo to conduct a blood drive in the Bay Area next week, the organization announced Monday. The week-long blood drive will be held in response to a national blood shortage, the Red Cross said…

Waymo will be offering free rides to and from the Red Cross 1663 Market Street donation center in San Francisco for registered users, the Red Cross said. The initiative is part of a new partnership between the Red Cross and Waymo.”…” Read more Hmmmm… Very nice. Hopefully Waymo is making a big effort to get an equitable cross section of registered users. Alain

When NYC Put a Celebrity in Every Taxi — ft. Al Franken

D. Friedman, Nov 7, “If you got in a taxi in New York City between 1997 and 2003, you were greeted with the recorded voice of a celebrity reminding you to buckle up. When you left, the same celebrity reminded you to make sure you don’t forget anything, and get a receipt.

I wanted to hear these again recently, just out of nostalgia. But I couldn’t find them archived anywhere online. So I did a little digging in old articles to find someone who worked on the project back then at Taxi and Limousine Commission and might still have them. I found a name and managed to contact him, but he didn’t have the recordings. He was thrilled to be remembered for this old project, though, and said, “You know who you should really talk to?”…” Read more Hmmmm…. Enjoy the read! Also enjoy the video. J Alain

Britain says makers, not car owners liable for self-driving crashes

Ali Smout, Nov. 7, “- Britain will make the makers rather than the owners of self-driving cars legally liable for any crashes under a framework for developing autonomous vehicles (AV), the government said on Tuesday, in a move welcomed by insurers and AV startups.

King Charles said the government would bring forward an Automated Vehicles Bill as he set out the government’s legislative agenda for the forthcoming parliamentary session, after one promised last year did not materialise.… “. Read more Hmmmm…. Seems like a no-brainer. If by “self-driving” cars they mean cars that are giving me a ride as opposed to cars that I am responsible for, at least the real-time oversight of their operation for me to give myself a ride, then this is an absolute no-brainer. I can’t think of an entity that is doing something for me, that I am somehow responsible for that entity to do that for me. The whole aspect of have someone or something doing something for me is that that someone or something is responsible for doing it. Being a non -lawyer, I apologize for equating liability with responsibility. So it may not be as much of a no-brainer as first thought. But yes… I’m all for it! J Alain

Unions urge US regulators to probe Waymo, Zoox after GM’s Cruise driverless crashes

      D. Shepardson, Nov 9, "  More
      than two dozen unions urged U.S. auto safety regulators on
      Thursday to open an industry-wide probe into driverless
      vehicles including Alphabet's Waymo [(GOOGL.O)](https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/GOOGL.O) and Amazon.com's [(AMZN.O)](https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/AMZN.O) Zoox.

The unions, including the Transportation Trades Department, Transport Workers Union of America, International Brotherhood of Teamsters and United Auto Workers, cited the recent investigation into General Motors’ (GM.N) self-driving Cruise unit and California’s decision to suspend Cruise testing.

Driverless vehicles “are unsafe and untenable in their current form. This industry is in dire need of federal regulation and leadership to restore a modicum of safety and establish a realistic path for these vehicles to operate without threatening other road users,” they said in a letter to U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Ann Carlson, acting administrator at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The letter also said workers are facing safety issues from robotaxis.”…” Read more Hmmmm…. So unfortunate that Waymo and Cruise have not recognized that union members and their families are, I suspect, among the largest groups of individuals who could benefit most from safe, affordable, high-quality mobility that they could offer. What a mistake it has been for Waymo and Cruise to focus their “proof-of-market” strategy on high-income professionals who already have more than enough really good mobility options, instead of giving safe, affordable, high-quality, demand responsive rides to improve the lives of Union and blue collar families. This lesson learned must be part of any training set of the next AI “proof-of-market” deployment model. Alain

UPCOMING LAUNCH: STARSHIP’S SECOND FLIGHT TEST

Website post:, Nov 7, “The second flight test of a fully integrated Starship could launch as soon as mid-November, pending regulatory approval.

A live webcast of the flight test will begin about 30 minutes before liftoff, which you can watch here and on X @SpaceX. As is the case with all developmental testing, the schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to stay tuned to our X account for updates….” .”…” Read more Hmmmm…. Waiting for FAA approval with bated breath. J Alain

Virgin Galactic to ground its VSS Unity space plane next year: report

M. Wall, Nov 7. “ The impressive flight cadence of Virgin Galactic’s VSS Unity space plane won’t last much longer.

Unity flew for the sixth time in as many months last week, carrying two research scientists and another private passenger to and from suborbital space on a mission called Galactic 05.

Unity will now get a bit of a break, staying out of the skies until January 2024, Virgin Galactic representatives have said. The spacecraft will then make an even bigger transition, flying just once or twice more before being grounded in mid-2024, according to SpaceNews, which cited an earnings call the company held on Wednesday (Nov. 8)….

As a result, every Delta space plane will be able to generate 12 times more revenue per month than Unity can, Colglazier said, according to SpaceNews. (Virgin Galactic is currently charging $450,000 for each seat on its suborbital missions.) So speeding the transition to the new line of vehicles makes financial sense….” Read more Hmmmm…. Everyone now needs to start making “financial sense” out of their technological aspirations. J Alain

Tesla Rated Sell by New Analyst, Presidential UAW Support, Highland Production

R. Mauer, Nov. 9, “ ➤ TSLA stock falls after analyst initiates coverage ➤ President Biden supports efforts to unionize Tesla ➤ Highland Model 3 production for October ➤ Tesla reportedly establishes entity in Chile ➤ Elon Musk interviewed by Lex Fridman: https://youtu.be/JN3KPFbWCy8 ➤ Tesla recalls some Model S/X vehicles ➤ Tesla reportedly plans Chicago service center ➤ Polestar updates 2025 guidance ➤ VW pauses EV production again ➤ SpaceX appears to begin equipping Starship FTS; Read more Hmmmm…. Launch might be soon. Essentially the last thing to be done prior to starting the countdown is the installation of the Flight Termination System. Alain

istserv

Conference

San Jose, CA

Nov. 30 -> Dec. 1, 2023

6th SmartDrivingCar

Summit

May 29 (evening) -> May 31, 2024

Princeton, NJ

Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 342 / PodCast 342 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher

F. Fishkin, Nov. 3, ”With “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena looking at The Business of Transport Systems and whether Tesla or Toyota will be first to twenty million, episode 342 of Smart Driving Cars offers in depth insights. Michael joins Alain and Fred for that plus Geely, Waymo, Uber and more.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 341 / PodCast 341 w/Russ Mitchell, Correspondent LA Times

Phoenix

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 340 / PodCast 340 w/ Michael Sena, Dispatch Central – November 2023.. Critical Materials as Competitive Weapons

F. Fishkin, Oct. 19, ”What has China done to Swedish EV battery maker Northvolt AB? “The Dispatcher” publisher Michael Sena joins Alain and Fred for episode 340 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus…robotaxi travails in San Francisco, Honda plans robotaxis in Tokyo with GM and Cruise, Amazon delivering drugs by drone, Xpeng, Tesla and more.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 339 / PodCast 339 driverless communication, Gates invests, Tesla battery production

F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, ”Driverless car communication with pedestrians? On episode 339 of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin chat about a report in The Verge on how Waymo is doing it. Plus Bill Gates invests in Glydways, Tesla battery production breakthrough, Model Y ridesharing in Tampa & more. Tune in and subscribe!

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 338 / PodCast 338 Waymo, Costs of Car Ownership, Tesla, Lyft and more

F. Fishkin, Oct. 10, ”What was Waymo thinking with a post about Waymo One and first dates? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser on that plus the costs of car ownership, Tesla, Lyft, Zeeker and more. Join Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 338 of Smart Driving Cars.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 337 / PodCast 337 Driveless Cars a Tough Sell?

F. Fishkin, Oct. 2, ”Driverless cars a tough sell? Not to people who need mobility. That’s Alain’s response to a piece in The Atlantic. Plus Mercedes Drive Pilot, Uber plays nice with taxi industry, Teamsters oppose Cruise Origin, Tesla, Microsoft and May Mobility. And Alain shares his IATR presentation- Modernizing the Giving of Rides.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 336 / PodCast 336 w Prof. Dan Sperling, UC Davis

F. Fishkin, Sept. 26, “With the swirling controversies surrounding robotaxis in San Francisco and beyond, some words of caution from Daniel Sperling. The University of California, Davis, founding Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies joins us for episode 336 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Cruise, Waymo, Governor Newsome’s climate lawsuit against oil, Tesla’s Optimus robot and more.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 335 / PodCast 335 w Ariel Wolf, Venable Autonomous & Connected Mobility

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 334 / PodCast 334 Waymo autonomous vehicles safer than humans

F. Fishkin, Sept. 12, “Waymo and big re-insurer Swiss Re say Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers. Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer sends shares higher. Cruise Origin on verge of getting okay. No steering wheels or pedals. Episode 334 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 333 / PodCast 333 The Dispatcher w/Michael Sena & Tampa-Moves Simulation w/Bryce Rasmussen’25

F. Fishkin, Aug. 30, “The Need for Driverless Vehicle Standards is the lead as The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us from Sweden for the latest Smart Driving Cars. More highlights from episode 333.. NHTSA, E-Fuels, China, Elon Musk demos the latest FSD and Bryce Rasmussen, Princeton ‘25, shows the results demo of the Interactive Person Trip Visualization tool from Princeton. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin…and subscribe!

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 332 / PodCast 332 Right Market w/ Bryce Rasmussen’24

F. Fishkin, Aug. 24, “How can communities plan for autonomous mobility systems? There’s a new Interactive Person Trip Visualization developed at Princeton University and Bryce Rasmussen, class of ‘25, shows us how it works. Episode 332 of Smart Driving Cars with Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin. Plus..Cruise, Waymo, San Francisco, Tesla and more.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 331 / PodCast 331 Wrong Market

F. Fishkin, Aug. 21, Following a crash with an emergency vehicle and a request from the California Department of Motor Vehicles, GM Cruise cuts San Francisco robotaxi fleet in half. What Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser suggests they should do next, plus Cruise losses, automated vehicle legal issues, Tesla and more. Tune in to Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 330 / PodCast 3 30 CPUC decision

F. Fishkin, Aug. 12, “Robotaxi service in San Francisco gets the green light from the California PUC. Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser outlines his testimony, where services go from here and more on episode 330 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus…the big UPS contract, Tesla and the continuing efforts develop automatic emergency braking that works.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 329 / PodCast 329 w/FL Senator Jeff Brandes & DASH’s Shuan Drinkard

F. Fishkin, Aug. 7, “Tampa Downtown Partnership head Shaun Drinkard and Florida Policy Project Founder Jeff Brandes join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the new Tampa DASH service that will provide affordable mobility with a Tesla fleet of vehicles. Plus a preview of the Florida AV Summit, the latest headlines on Cruise, Waymo, Tesla, Luminar, NuView and more. Smart Driving Cars 329!

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 328 / PodCast 328 w/ Wm. Cariss, Holman Growth Ventures +

Fishkin, Aug. 3, “On episode 328 of Smart Driving Cars, we’re at the Holman Emerge conference in NJ focused on start-ups and the future of driving, dealerships and mobility. Guests include Holman CEO Carl Ortell, President Chris Conroy, Homan Growth Ventures CEO Bill Cariss and Spiffy founder Scott Wingo.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 327 / PodCast 327 Han’s the Best!

F. Fishkin, July 29, “A SF Taxi Alliance Board member takes a Waymo ride and says he felt extra safe! That’s on top on episode 327 of Smart Driving Cars. That plus the latest from Cruise, Tesla, Uber, SpaceX and more. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest in autonomous mobility.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 326 / PodCast 326 San Francisco robotaxis gain support from disability advocates

F. Fishkin, July 24, “Some disability advocates are voicing support for expanded robotaxis in San Francisco, a SF paper pits Uber against Waymo in a race, Cruise begins testing in Miami, Tesla begins production of DOJO supercomputer and talks to a major automaker about licensing Full Self Driving. That and more on episode 326 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.

Link to previous 301 -> 325 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Link to previous 276 -> 300 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Link to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts

Recent Highlights of:

Friday, Nov. 3, 2023

THE NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2023 ISSUE IN BRIEF

M. Sena, Oct 28, “, Oct. 25, “Two-and-a-half months after I came home to Sweden from my May “Searching for America” trip, which took me through New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania, I returned for a second tour of duty. This one was during the last two weeks in July, and it took me from Sweden to Boston, up to Canada, and back. I was carried in cars (mostly SUVs and pick-up trucks, all ICEs), buses, planes (including the kind that land on water), boats, all terrain vehicles, and my own two feet (mostly clad in wading boots) to my many destinations. The trains got me to and from Copenhagen, my point of departure from Europe. The main purpose of this trip was to go fishing with my good friend and fishing partner for the past forty-nine years, whom I had not seen in five years. We went to a river in Labrador where we had fished together between 1986 and 1996. We decided to give it one last try. I found that everyone I met on this trip is still making their choice of transport based on their own particular needs and desires, and not being influenced by either climate change activists or climate change deniers. They are asking themselves what is the best transport option that satisfies the combination of lowest cost, most convenience, greatest comfort, and fastest speed of arrival, and which fits with current conditions of time of year, weather, and time of day? I am fully aware that I didn’t need to travel to the U.S. and Canada to spend a few days fishing in the wilderness of Labrador. People do a lot of things they do not NEED to do. Do I feel better for having done it? Yes, for more reasons than I can list or explain, even to myself. I am happy to have spent the money for this trip in a way that gives people work, and to have had the experience of seeing in person my dearest friends. What else is life for? …” Read more Hmmmm…. Another wonderful issue, especially the lead article “The Business if Transport Systems. Enjoy reading and tune into my discussion with Michael in ZoomCast 342 Alain

Sunday, Oct. 30, 2023

Cruise’s San Francisco Suspension Expose People’sAbleism And Underscores Abled Privilege Enjoyed By Most

S. Aquino, Oct. 25, “ … As someone who has covered both Cruise and Waymo for this column on multiple occasions, and especially as someone who has low vision, I fully admit to feeling frustration over the myopic viewpoint dominating this issue. It should be obvious safety is an important aspect of developing, deploying, and ultimately riding in an autonomous vehicle. Of course people want to be as safe as possible. The problem is nobody accepts safety is but one side of the coin; there is another consideration to take into account that people are predictably—infuriatingly so—missing.

That consideration, as ever, is accessibility.

While members of the disability community have raised safety concerns, the strident opposition by many in City Hall (and, again, residents) to autonomous vehicles overlooks the very real, and very valid, accessibility benefits of using so-called “robotaxis.” The reality is, to claim the concerns are paramountly about safety helps obfuscate any general ignorance towards how disabled people get around. The protestors and naysayers yell and scream about how awful companies such as Cruise are because they can—they’re able to drive their cars or walk down the street or take the bus or otherwise get here and there about town with resistance. Their lifestyle, and more pointedly, their privilege, is such they believe there are other, friendlier, more feasible modes of transportation that ostensibly “everyone” can access in equal favor…” Read more Hmmmm…. Thank you Forbes for publishing this perspective. Recall it was a human driver who hit the pedestrian and then drove away. Human drivers kill an average of more than 100 people every day in the USA. [see below for another recent tragedy] Alain

Friday, Oct. 20, 2023

For Bill Ford, ‘Every Negotiation Is a Roller Coaster’

N. Boudette, Oct. 18, “As a 25-year-old junior executive at the car company that bears his last name, William Clay Ford Jr ‘79. had a bracing introduction to labor negotiations when a union official demanded that he stand up and vouch that he was made of the same stuff as his great-grandfather Henry Ford.

Mr. Ford, now the company’s executive chair, harked back to the moment in an interview this week about how he and his company are navigating one of their most difficult labor negotiations in decades.

In a speech this week, Mr. Ford said the strikes were helping nonunion automakers like Tesla, Toyota and Honda. Mr. Fain responded that workers at those companies were future U.A.W. members.

In an interview after his speech, Mr. Ford said he had been counseling his executives not to let Mr. Fain’s words get to them and focus on getting a deal done. Mr. Ford also recalled his first difficult conversation with a union official.

In 1982, Mr. Ford said, his father invited him to sit in the room for talks with the U.A.W. As a newcomer, he was not allotted a seat at a table where about 50 union negotiators sat on one side and an equal number of Ford executives on the other.

Sitting against the wall, he was approached by an older union representative. “You, stand up,” the man said. “What are you made of? I knew your great-grandfather and your grandfather. I knew what they were made of. What the hell are you made of?”

Mr. Ford said he had replied sheepishly that he had never known his great-grandfather and grandfather but that he shared their values. Similar confrontations followed daily — “I lived in terror of going to work,” Mr. Ford said.

Then about a week later, the union officials invited him to a local bar. “Come with us,” Mr. Ford said they had told him. “You passed the test.”…

Have you been involved in any talks that are comparable to the current negotiations?

No, but every negotiation is different, and every leader is different. What I keep saying to our executives is: ‘Don’t take this personally. A lot of it is theater. The most important thing is get the deal done. The rhetoric doesn’t matter.’ Every negotiation is a roller coaster. Some are not pleasant, and some sting. Don’t overreact. And when it’s all over, we are still one team again, and have to go forward.

Are you going to be on the same team at the end of these talks?

I believe we will. I know many on their negotiating team personally, and some of them, I play hockey with them and consider them very close friends.

You’ve said the real competition is not U.A.W. vs. Ford but the U.A.W. and Ford against Toyota, Honda, Tesla and the Chinese automakers. Do you think the union’s leadership agrees with that?

I hope so, because if they don’t, it will be catastrophic. They can have disagreements with us and bargain hard, but we are not the enemy. I will never consider our employees the enemy. I think the employees know who the real competition is, and they will come together with us when this is over. We made a conscious decision to add jobs here in America when our competitors were moving production to Mexico….” Read more Hmmmm…. I hope Bill invited Will Ford ‘14 to sit/stand in the room. I’m sure he also plays hockey with U.A.W. members J Hopefully, both sides can come together and keep the US mobility industry strong. We need you. Alain

Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023

SPIA Reacts: Crisis in the Middle East

Staff, Oct. 7, “…” Read more Hmmmm…. Another most informative panel. If you haven’t, also watch: The Outbreak of War In Israel- A Geopolitical Update, was given earlier this week by former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt & Israel, Daniel C. Kurtzer.

Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023

Meet Waymo One: The ideal third wheel for your first date.

Staff, Oct 7, “…” Read moreHmmmm… Is this The Onion? No, it’s not funny! … Talk about taking the low road against your competition and being clueless about the real value of what you’ve spent billions creating. This is so deeply bad in so many ways. What are we to understand? That Uber and Lyft hire creepy drivers? That the value proposition of Waymo is riders’ privacy to hookup in the backseat? WHAT? Astonishingly tone deaf. Waymo needs to rethink their entire public relations department and just have Ellie Casson do it. She was absolutely great at IATR/Scottsdale. And nothing could be worse than this ad. Alain

Monday, Oct. 2, 2023

Why Driverless Cars Are a Tough Sell

C. Friedersdif, Sept. 27, “Last week, I asked for your thoughts on self-driving cars.

Replies have been edited for length and clarity….

“Our century-long love affair with all things automotive dooms the driverless concept to a niche market,” one reader argues….” Read more Hmmmm… Maybe for those who are able to “Home Depot” (or do it themselves) their mobility…For the many, many others who need a ride and can’t “Do it Themselves” for whatever reason (who are responsible for about 500 million personTrips each day), a driverless vehicle that provides a good ride is an enormous market opportunity whose ease and affordability might even make the “Do it Themselves-er” ask “what the heck have I been doing burdening myself with the capX, parking, fueling, headaches???” Looking beyond the market opportunity and societal benefits, we take issue (again) with the premise that driverless vehicles are/should be intended for private, single-family ownership. We push against the notion that these potentially-life changing modes of transport should be positioned as just another luxury good for the 1%. Also, is it really accurate to refer to a “century-long love affair with all things automotive”? Or have capitalist forces compelled us to believe we love paying for, maintaining, driving, etc our own cars? I expected more from The Atlantic. Alain

Tuesday, Sept. 26, 2023

Don’t fall prey to the current panic over automated vehicles

D. Sperling, Sept. 17, “Skepticism, frustration, and even hostility met the California Public Utilities Commission’s decision last month to grant Waymo and Cruise permission to operate automated vehicles in San Francisco. The panic over AVs threatens to drown out the voices of those celebrating this technological advancement.

As transportation researchers, we aim to present pathways that embrace technological progress and improve public transportation while being mindful of the cynicism. AVs are not the panacea to all transportation troubles, but let’s not discard this valuable innovation just yet. …

….AV companies have invested tens of billions of dollars testing this technology with the goal of improving safety and accessibility. Now it is time for better policies that will enable scaling of this technology in a way that is in the public interest — that will improve safety for occupants and pedestrians, enable sharing, and provide greater accessibility to all riders. ” Read more Hmmmm… Extremely well said.. Alain

Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023

NHTSA says nearly half of all car seats incorrectly installed

F. Fishkin, Sept. 17, “….NHTSA says nearly half of all car seats to protect child safety are incorrectly installed. Acting Administrator Ann Carlson says the agency is offering help during Child Passenger Safety Week. How? Carlson chats with Techstination’s Fred Fishkin…

Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023

Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are significantly safer than human-driven ones, says new research led by Swiss Re

Company News, Sept 6, “Waymo and Swiss Re, one of the world’s leading reinsurers, partnered in 2022 to advance risk assessment methodologies and approaches to evaluating safety of autonomous vehicles.

        Today, we're sharing new research led by Swiss Re which
        shows Waymo's autonomous vehicles are significantly safer
        than those driven by humans. In the over 3.8 million miles
        that Waymo drove without a human behind the steering wheel
        across San Francisco, CA and Phoenix, AZ, there were zero
        bodily injury claims and a significant reduction in the
        property damage claims frequency.

        While the research community and general public have long
        asked whether an autonomous driver is safer than human
        drivers, the industry has faced challenges in developing a
        robust and well-calibrated human performance benchmark for
        comparison. This study addresses these challenges by
        establishing a comparison baseline based on liability
        insurance claims data.

        The study compares Waymo's liability claims data with
        mileage- and zip-code-calibrated private passenger vehicle
        (human driver) baselines established by Swiss Re. Based on
        Swiss Re's data from over 600,000 claims and over 125
        billion miles of exposure, these baselines are extremely
        robust and highly significant.

        The findings indicate that in comparison to the Swiss Re
        human driver baseline, the Waymo Driver — Waymo's fully
        autonomous driving technology — significantly reduced the
        frequency of property damage claims by 76% (a decrease from
        3.26 to 0.78 claims per million miles) when compared to
        human drivers. Furthermore, it completely eliminated bodily
        injury claims, a drastic contrast to the Swiss Re human
        driver baseline of 1.11 claims per million miles…."  [Read  more](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/09/waymos-autonomous-vehicles-are.html)  Hmmmm…  Compelling
          findings from folks whose livelihood is focused on
          assessing safety.  As the San Francisco deployment has
          demonstrated, Waymo passes the proof-of-concept "Turing
          Test" for safety.  However, they have yet to demonstrate
          that they can pass a proof-of -market  test. Alain

Wednesday, August 31, 2023

Tesla FSD v12: Breakthrough We’ve Been Waiting For?

Rob Mauer, Aug. 28, “➤ Elon Musk livestreams Tesla’s FSD Beta v12 ➤ Tesla compute capacity updates ➤ Hardware 4 information ➤ Highland / Cybertruck updates ➤ Tesla lithium refinery progress ➤ Megapack price reduction ➤ Piper Sandler issues note on TSLA ➤ Calendar.” Read more Hmmmm… Very perceptive perspective on FSDv12. Is FSDv12 close to passing Kornhauser’s “Turing Proof-of-concept” for driverless mobility? Alain

Elon Musk Livestream of his FSD v12 drive

Brighter w/Herbert, Aug. 25, ““Elon Musk just livestreamed his Full Self Driving of V12 around Palo Alto Ashok Elluswamy Director of AI was with him”. Read more Hmmmm… Interesting commentary on Elon’s LiveStream of FSDv12.. Alain

GM-backed Cruise is “just days away” from regulatory approval to begin mass production of its fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, the company’s CEO, Kyle Vogt, said at an investor conference Thursday.

          Cruise first unveiled the Origin robotaxi in early 2020 as
          a bus-like vehicle built for the sole purpose of shuttling
          people around in a city autonomously. But since then, the
          company has been mired in a lengthy regulatory process
          before it can begin mass production.

          The vehicle's lack of traditional human controls means
          that Cruise needs an exemption from the federal
          government's motor vehicle safety standards, which require
          vehicles to have a steering wheel and pedals. The Origin
          has neither.

          The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)
          only grants 2,500 such exemptions a year. There is
          legislation to increase that number to 25,000, but it is
          currently stalled in the Senate.

Friday, August 25, 2023

‘This Experience May Feel Futuristic’: Three Rides in Waymo Robot Taxis

T. Mickie, Aug 21, “ “Hello, Tripp,” a disembodied woman’s voice said through the speakers of a driverless taxi that was about to pick up a fare near the colorful Victorian houses known as the Painted Ladies.

“This experience may feel futuristic,” the voice said. “Please don’t touch the steering wheel or pedals during the ride. For any questions, you can find information in the Waymo app, like how we keep our cars safe or clean.”

For several years, San Francisco’s hilly and congested streets have doubled as a test track for hundreds of driverless cars operated by Waymo, an autonomous vehicle company owned by the Google parent company Alphabet, and General Motors-owned Cruise…. “ Read more Hmmmm… Although I included this article in the body of SDC 11.32, I am repeating it here so that I can include a letter-to-the editor that I sent the NY Times, which is unlikely that the NYT will publish, so I’ll just include it here as follows…

To the editor:

While I applaud the Times for their seriousness of purpose in sending three reporters to determine, for themselves, if the driverless rides offered by Waymo (and Cruise) in San Francisco are real and actually work, and their fair and un-sensationalized, balanced assessment, it is a shame that the PR around the enhanced quality-of-life opportunity for this form of mobility remains overlooked.

Instead of focusing on the tourist experience for those that already have the wherewithal of time, money and physical ability to be chauffeured around, I recommend that for the next article you get the opinion of a formerly incarcerated individual who could have a night job, but can’t get there because Muni operates but 2 bus routes between midnight and 5 am, or a single parent who can’t leave work to give their kids a ride to the doctor or to cello lessons. Or to the many people who find themselves in the unenviable position of having to ask a friend, let alone a stranger, for a ride. Why not instead talk to people whose lives would be fundamentally improved if they had easy access to safe, equitable, demand responsive, affordable mobility 24/7/365, just like, maybe even better, than having their own car to drive themselves.

By the way, we compute that in the 49 square miles of San Francisco there is a demand for about 2.1 million person trips every day. About 30% are well served affordably by Muni (but require a subsidy that is 4x the affordable fare) and about 10% can afford the luxury of being chauffeured by Uber/Lyft/taxi/limo. That leaves more than 1 million that prefer to drive themselves or get a ride from a family member, friend or neighbor or don’t improve their lives by going because, Muni’s rides aren’t suitable, Uber/Lyft/taxi/limo are too expensive, or they can’t convince someone to take them. Waymo (and Cruise) can safely serve all 2.1 million; however, they can make life changing differences to this last group that can’t afford to go. With casual ridesharing, Waymo/Cruise could achieve a 100 personTrips/vehicleDay productivity and break-even average cost, without subsidy, of less than $2.50 /personTrip (~$2.43/personTrip, Public Comment to the California Public Utility Commission, August 10, 2023 by Dr. Alain L. Kornhauser, Princeton University, also attached).

Now that’s high-quality, affordable mobility that delivers quality-of-life throughout the city.

Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD

… Alain

Monday, August 21, 2023

GM Cruise and Lidar Robotaxi’s Business Model Is Go Through $100 Billion in Losses to Try to Reach Profitable Scale

B. Wang, Aug. 15, “GM’s Cruise robotaxi service has expanded from 70 to 300 robotaxis operating in San Francisco and will soon expand to Phoenix, Los Angeles, Austin and Dubai. GM Cruise had increasing losses of $561 million in the first quarter of 2023. This will be over $2 billion in losses in 2023. GM Cruise will having increasing billions in net losses until they reach profitable scale. IF GM Cruise grows revenue by 1000 to 2000 times (100,000% to 200,000%) by 2030 and achieves operational and financial efficiency then it would become very profitable. Robotaxi’s must continue to undercut Uber, taxi and public transit pricing to get the market share. This will take perhaps $100 billion or much more cumulative losses to finally reach profitability.

Waymo financials is in Google Other Bets and were a lot of the Other Bet losses of $4.8 billion in 2020 and $5.2 billion in 2021 and $6B in 2022. Morgan Stanley analysts valued Waymo at $175 billion in 2018, $105 billion in Sept 2019 and the Waymo valuation estimate in 2023 is $30 billion….” Read more Hmmmm… All the more reason that focusing on serving the folks whom Uber/Lyft serve amounts to chasing the wrong customers. Those customers are simply too diffuse spatially and too needy to justify their high price. Being marginally cheaper (~20% discount) isn’t sufficiently disruptive to expand this customer base and is inconsequential to the bulk of valued ride-hailing customers - those taking longer trips who tip well. Even if Cruise & Waymo got’em all, the financials aren’t pretty. Too few, too needy to end up contributing anywhere near enough to have any hope for profit, even after bankruptcy, let alone an RoI on the initial investment.

Proof-of-market only makes sense when the fundamental advantages of driverless’ on-demand, spatial land temporal flexibility can be leveraged to offer really good mobility at a very low price within sufficiently concentrated areas to people who need a ride within that concentrated area and are willing to put a little shoe leather into the game.

Such market disruptions happen every day in even not-so-tall buildings. Just think: if getting around in tall buildings required a “ride-hailing” service model, we would have no tall buildings. You’d need an app, an elevator operator, a rating system, layers of public oversight, … but, you could go directly from the front door to your room… maybe??? No reason why the elevator service (easily accessible pick up and drop off, on-demand 24/7, casual rid-sharing attendant/driver-free service) model can’t be enormously disruptive in attracting the loyalty of the vast number of people who need a ride and, also, to the many who find themselves forced into giving themselves a ride and even some who can readily give themselves a ride.

In case I haven’t been clear, the ride-haling service model is not a sufficiently disruptive business model to afford the investment that driverless requires. Had it been easy to do driverless and the Elaine Herzberg crash had not occurred, then maybe Uber/Lyft would be financial darlings. Unfortunately, driverless has proven to be really tough and Uber/Lyft are but taxis with a really nice app, but are forever burdened with providing a living wage to an individual who services but one rider at a time, not only for that ride, but also the time waiting around for that rider and the time getting to that rider. The driver has very little opportunity to be more productive, since, apparently, ride-sharing destroys ride-hailing’s service concept to an extent that is greater than can be restored by a cheaper price to the valued ride-hailing customers. Thus, no ride sharing, Moreover, the non-constant demand throughout the day induces a substantial amount dead time further challenging driver productivity. Thus, as with taxis and limos, Under/Lyft ride hailing can’t be less substantially less expensive than taxis/limos and given the expected returns and life-styles of the Silicon Valley inventors of ride-hailing it is not the right disruptive business model for driverless. The elevator business model of making it easy for anyone to get a ride any time from and to many places, with or without others, no app required and is such a good way to go that those benefiting from that equitable accessibility might be willing to pitch in an make it even free because in the end it is so inexpensive to deliver. Now that’s disruptive!

If you want to learn more about the wrong business model for driverless, see Brian being interviewed in Tesla Expert: Why Cruise and Waymo Will Go Bankrup t Alain

Saturday, August 12, 2023

Robotaxis: California Regulators OK 24/7 Self-Driving Car Expansion in San Francisco

M. Kupfer & I. Mojadad, Aug. 10, “San Francisco will enter a new era of driverless cars—whether residents and city leaders like it or not—after the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) gave autonomous vehicle companies Cruise and Waymo the green light for unlimited expansion on Thursday.

        In a 3-1 vote, the commission ruled to allow the companies
        to operate across the city 24/7 and charge passengers for
        the ride.

        Commission President Alice Reynolds and commissioners Darcie
        Houck and John Reynolds voted in favor of resolutions
        allowing the companies to expand their operations.
        Commissioner Genevieve Shiroma opposed the resolution,
        saying that the CPUC lacked sufficient information to
        evaluate the safety of autonomous vehicles and their impact
        on first responders.

        Driverless Cruise and Waymo cars have long circulated
        through San Francisco and even ferried passengers through
        the city streets. But, until now, their operations have
        remained limited.

        Cruise has been allowed to charge fares for rides between 10
        p.m. and 6 a.m. and offer free rides at all other times.
        Waymo has only been allowed to charge for rides with a human
        safety driver in the vehicle.

Now both companies will be able to grow their operations in San Francisco….

A Long Meeting With Passionate Comments:

        Thursday's session started at 11 a.m., with the commission
        hearing hours of public comment and ultimately voting on two
        resolutions to allow Cruise and Waymo to operate across the
        city 24/7 and charge passengers for rides.

        A long line of supporters and opponents waited on Van Ness
        Avenue to enter the commission building ahead of the
        meeting.

.….” Read more Hmmmm… Listening to almost 4 hours of one-minute public comments from those in-house @ the CPUC meeting, I was deeply moved by the challenges and acute mobility needs facing many San Franciscans. While it’s true that a segment of the community can drive themselves or afford, without a second thought, to just pull out their cell-phone to receive instantaneous gratification via Limo/taxi/Uber/Lyft, there is a significant population that continues to be overlooked. And as I have been saying over and over again, part of the incredible potential of driverless is to provide everyone with safe and affordable means of getting from point A to point B.

I also heard substantial fear in the public comments. Fear of marginalization (“I use a wheelchair; how can a driverless vehicle be useful to me?”), fear of unemployment (“I have been working as a taxi/Uber/Lyft driver for years. How will I feed my family if driverless cars expand service?”), and safety fears (collisions, interference with emergency vehicles). These fears are real and important to address. So what I cannot fathom is why the PR departments of Waymo, Cruise, etc. are not doing a better job educating the public. I understand why The San Francisco Standard, WSJ, and any for-profit media repeatedly highlights slick, easy stories (at the best) and click-bait at the worst to elicit emotional responses and continued readership, but where is the professional journalism? Nuanced, thoughtful reporting exists, but is seriously overshadowed by the glib (like today’s sensationalized non-news about sex in mobility systems.). Where are the discussions about how driverless car companies are not trying to eliminate taxi services or put working people out of business or neglect the physical mobility needs of many riders, but instead are seeking to be one of many mobility choices? Where are serious investigations of what current car companies and law makers are doing to address human misbehavior in typical cars - texting/distracted driving, driving while under the influence, jay walking, speeding, tailgating, and any other number of unlawful activities that imperil us? How do, say, last year’s avoidable collisions that resulted from driver misbehavior compare with all driverless “misbehaviors” of the past 5 years? I implore those who are interested in technology, public safety, environmentalism, smart cities, and mobility rights, to spend the necessary time to consider the actual potential societal benefits that driverless vehicles might afford and to collaborate in designing safe, equitable, affordable systems that benefit the collective.

OK, rant over, climbing down off that particular soap box…. :-)

Once the proceedings allowed remote comments, I contributed a one minute summary of the following, which I submitted in writing:

Public Comment to the California Public Utility Commission, August 10, 2023

Dr. Alain L. Kornhauser, Princeton University

My name is Alain Kornhauser. I am Professor of Operations Research & Financial Engineering at Princeton University, and Faculty Chair of its Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering activities. The application of automation to improve mobility and quality of life in cities has been the hallmark of my career as a teacher and researcher, which started in January 1971. I am about to start my 52nd year at Princeton.

I speak today in support of the deployment of safe, affordable, equitable, sustainable, and high-quality mobility to improve the lives of all San Franciscans. Such mobility is not widely available today, neither in San Francisco nor anywhere else in the world.

It can be delivered only through the deployment of vehicles that remove the high cost of the driver, which represents more than 50% of the cost of a ride, whether it is in a taxi or a bus.

Operation of driverless mobility has been demonstrated by Cruise and Waymo. They have shown that vehicles without drivers can deliver safe demand-responsive rides 24/7, but thus far have focused only on the technical solution, not on the real value to society.

Affordability is the real value proposition, because the cost, at scale, for driverless mobility is really inexpensive, especially in comparison with the true cost of a driver to wait around to be summoned, then to get to a customer, and finally to give that customer a ride.

Ride sharing further cuts the cost in half, which I strongly recommend that you endorse.

          This low cost of giving a ride can enable a fare structure
          that supports a profitable operation that is attractive to
          all but the very poorest residents, for whom free service
          could readily be afforded by philanthropy.

We find that on a typical day, San Franciscans would like to take about 2.1 million personTrips that originate and terminate in this 7-by-7, 49 square mile city. Each is longer than a 10 minute walk (one-half mile). The average length is 2.9 miles; the 90th percentile is 5.4 miles, and the longest is 8.5 miles.

We estimate that roughly 50% of these trips can and are taken by people who have the wherewithal to drive themselves. Of the other 50%, less than 10% take transit/taxi/Uber/Lyft/Limo. The rest “get a ride” from a family member or friend or many don’t go because they can’t get or can’t afford a ride.

The biggest societal reason for the CPUC to approve this service is the improved quality-of-life that driverless mobility services can deliver to those who can’t afford a ride, can’t get a ride from a family member, or who find themselves in the unenviable situation of having to ask for a ride from a neighbor or stranger. (Another substantial benefit comes from reducing the dead-heading that is incurred by taking someone someplace and then having to go back and pick them up.)

We believe that a well-managed fleet serving these customers can achieve vehicle productivities of 100 personTrips/day, with Average Vehicle Occupancies of 2.0, total costs of under $0.85 per personTrip mile, and a break-even fare, without subsidy, of $2.43 per personTrip.

A fleet of 5,000 vehicles could readily serve 500,000 personTrips or 25% of the daily San Franciscan personTrips (excluding tourists).

With respect to impact on labor, by far the largest elimination of driving by humans is to the family and friends who would have given most of the rides that would switch to this service.

Those who now use taxi/Uber/Lyft/Limo can largely afford those services today and will likely continue to use those services.

Those customers who are conveniently served by public transit will continue to use public transit.

Moreover, there may not be any loss of existing jobs, while many new jobs are going to be created to maintain and oversee driverless vehicles that will enhance the quality of life for all members of the community, especially those who, today, do not have access to affordable high-quality mobility.

Most relieved are the family members and friends now giving the many rides.

          In summary, this is why I believe the City of San
          Francisco should approve the 7x7 deployment of driverless
          vehicles.

          1.      They are the best way to provide high-quality
          mobility to the large percentage of the population who
          cannot drive or who cannot afford to own a car and drive
          themselves. Taxis are too expensive, and public
          transportation does not serve their needs to get where
          they need to go when they need to get there.

          2.      Improved mobility for those who are unserved today
          means that more people can get to jobs, health care,
          educational opportunities, and all the services that
          improve people's lives.

          3.      Making good transportation affordable is better
          than using tax money to subsidize transportation solutions
          that do not meet the needs of the city's citizens.

          4.      Driverless vehicle technology employs all of the
          sensing equipment that is making cars safer than they have
          ever been. Driverless vehicles are already well on the way
          to being ready to deliver safe rides within urban areas.
          With the proper guidelines in place for where, when, and
          how these cars can operate, they will become even safer.

Thank you… “ Alain

Monday, August 07, 2023

Tampa adds fleet of Tesla SUVs for new mobility option around city

Andrew Harlan, July 31, “The Tampa Downtown Partnership announced the launch of DASH, a new service featuring Tesla SUVs that will carry folks to 20 different spots around Tampa. The trip will cost just a few dollars, and an official route map will be revealed later in August.

DASH is described as an innovative new option to travel around fast-growing Downtown Tampa. This service will zip passengers through the city with low-cost shared rides between more than 20 different hubs located across Downtown….” Read more Hmmmm… Fantastic!! Tampa becomes the first MOVES-style mobility system in the world to ”…zip passengers through the city with low-cost shared rides between more than 20 different hubs located across Downtown…” providing “Safe, Affordable, Equitable, Sustainable, High-quality” rides. Hopefully, Trenton can become the 2nd where We’ve caledl the Hubs “Kiosks” (or “Hubs” or ??) with a vision to evolve to driverless operation so that the cost to operate the service becomes truly Affordable. 😊 Alain

Monday, July 31, 2023

We Took a San Francisco Cabbie for a Driverless Car Ride. He Had Opinions

H. Li, July 27, “Barry Taranto doesn’t feel any immediate threat to his livelihood from the rise of the driverless car. But this long-time San Francisco taxi driver is still angry that they exist.

As a board member of the San Francisco Taxi Workers Alliance, Taranto has been an outspoken critic of Uber and Lyft. But now, he finds himself again besieged by brand-new technology on the road.

“The city is a mess,” Taranto said. “Adding these autonomous vehicles is going to cause more congestion.”

As part of The Standard’s series on the rising trend of driverless cars in San Francisco, we took Taranto on a ride—his first—to see what he thought about the experience.

As part of The Standard’s series on the rising trend of driverless cars in San Francisco, we took Taranto on a ride—his first—to see what he thought about the experience. … here we go again, Han is trying to sabotage Waymo & Cruise again. So sad!…

“I’m interested to see how this particular vehicle handles different situations,” he told The Standard, “especially during the daytime.” …

Amid busy daytime traffic, the ride was a bit challenging, but the small SUV traveled smoothly and slowly through San Francisco’s complex topography.

“I’ve dealt with [passengers] getting upset that you are driving so cautiously that you’re stopping at practically every light,” Taranto said, criticizing the Waymo’s slow speed— most of the time under 30 mph. In San Francisco’s dense area, many streets have a 25 to 30 mph legal speed limit. … What does Taranto do to not stop for red lights, go through them? I’m sure he doesn’t! He likely works hard to reassure his customer to relax and that they’ll be fine! …

However, Taranto admitted to a feeling of extra safety. … Wow! Bingo!!! “Turing Proof-of-Technology” passed by Taranto with an “extra safe”! Wow!!… (my emphasis). ” Read more Hmmmm… Never mind! My bad!! Han, you’re the best!!! After arranging such a great testimonial, how can the CPUC not vote approval on August 10. Taranto’s other challenges are all readily solvable… more Waymos, less wait; recommendations of better routes can easily be incorporated; doing kiosks instead or hailing can vastly improve boarding and alighting by everyone, especially those that have special needs; and, as far as congestion goes, ride sharing and the opportunity to fleet manage the “getting to the next ride and from the end of the last ride” will incur fewer non-rider miles than Taranto, the members of the San Francisco Taxi Worker Alliance and Uber/Lyft drivers can do on their own as they move around rider-empty as they, today, seek their next customers. Han, Thank you!! You arranged THE best testimonial! Alain

Monday, July 24, 2023

Exclusive: Disability advocates push for robotaxi expansion

M. Dickey, July 21, “San Francisco’s LightHouse for the Blind and Visually Impaired is among a group of community organizations urging state regulators to approve Waymo’s permit that would enable the self-driving car company to receive payments for its around-the-clock service in San Francisco.

        Why it matters: Community organizations that advocate on
        behalf of people with disabilities argue autonomous vehicles
        are safer and provide more accessibility and independence
        than traditional ride-hailing services, and hope the permit
        will encourage expanded services.

        What's happening: In an [open letter](https://waymo.com/letters/sf-open-letter) posted
        Friday, more than a dozen community advocacy groups urged
        the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to
        "approve Waymo's permit at the earliest possible
        opportunity," arguing driverless cars "can ensure this next
        generation of transportation is more inclusive than ever."

        In addition to LightHouse, other groups include the San
        Francisco LGBT Center, Self-Help for the Elderly and the
        Epilepsy Foundation of Northern California.

Read more Hmmmm… Excellent! Thrilled to see that communities are advocating for MORE Waymo/driverless services, and that their requests are getting at least some media attention. We are hoping that many more groups follow suit. Wouldn’t it be great if companies like Waymo focused on the needs of similar community groups AND did a better job publicizing their progress in terms of delivering safe, affordable demand-responsive/high-quality rides? All too often the stories intended to catch the public eye are written by those who don’t actually need a ride and who don’t seem to care about the potential of driverless services to disrupt the giving rides market for the betterment of society [see below]. The fact that “more than a dozen” advocacy groups are joining to lobby for Waymo’s permitting is proof that they (and Cruise) meet the Caudill Corollary: “Proof-of-Community Value & Sustainability”. Alain

Friday, July 14, 2023

Editorial: Cruise and Waymo have passed the “Turing (Kornhauser) Test” for Proof-of-Technology

A. Kornhauser, July 14,”Happy Bastille Day! “ What a day for me to write my first editorial. Fane 24 begins its Bastille Day: A brief history of France’s July 14 national holiday… ”Bastille Day” is known in France simply as “le Quatorze Juillet”, a reference to the date on which it is held. July 14 became an official national holiday in 1880 to commemorate key turning points in French history. … Today, July 14, 2023, commemorates for me the turning point in autonomousTaxi (aka aTaxi, roboTaxi) history to commemorate aTaxi’s passage of the “Turing (Kornhauser) proof-of-technology” test, as written in Wikipedia… ”The Turing test, originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing in 1950,[2] is a test of a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. …” …

Kornhauser’s “Proof-of-Technology” version of the Turing Test, as it might appear in Wikipedia, would be “… a machine’s ability to give a ride equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Kornhauser proposed that a human evaluator would judge rides given in an Operational Design Domain between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like rides given in that Operational Design Domain. …”

After spending three days in San Francisco listening to and engaging in discussions describing the testing of driverless cars by Cruise and Waymo, and getting rides given by humans and by machines designed to give human-like rides, I’ve come to the conclusion that, if I kept my eyes closed, I could not tell if a human or a machine was giving me the ride. Rides were indistinguishable. Furthermore, since their simulations and data-supported real-world testing experience have more than satisfied the safety equivalence condition by exceeding it, I can declare that both Cruise and Waymo have passed the ”Turing (Kornhauser) Proof-of-Technology Test”

That is an enormous accomplishment. I for one/many/most/essentiallyAll New Jerseyians can’t wait for Cruise and/or Waymo to assemble sufficient machines, adjust them to address some of the quirks of a Trenton/Mercer County ODD, a Perth Amboy/Middlesex County ODD, a Patterson/Pasaic County ODD, a Newark/Essex County ODD… and offer human-like rides to us. I’m certain Cruise and/or Waymo will find us grateful, thankful, appreciative of the improved quality-of-life that they’ll be able to profitably deliver to so many of us in New Jersey. By coming to New Jersey, they’ll go beyond the ”Turing (Kornhauser) Proof-of-Technology” test to pass the “Kornhauser Proof-of-Market” Test. Alain

Monday, June 26 2023

Should your car prevent accidents, period?

F. Fishkin, July 4, “Would you want to own a car that would simply stop most accidents from happening? What about having that kind of car for your children? At Princeton University, the faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering, Alain Kornhauser, my co-host on the Smart Driving Cars podcast…says many vehicles today are equipped with enough technology or could be equipped with enough technology, to simply not permit excessive speeding, tailgating and other forms of reckless driving and could prevent the vast majority of collisions…along with the associated deaths, injuries and costs. The question to ponder is….is that something we want as a society? The technology is ready and waiting. The many who have suffered injuries or lost loved ones…would likely say yes. What about you? What about regulators and carmakers? …” Read more Hmmmm… Of course. Fred and I have for years said there are 3 groupings of SmartDrivingCars:

* SafeDrivingCars… exactly what Fred is talking about. Their value proposition is they keep the driver from misbehaving if that misbehavior is likely to lead to a crash of any kind.

* SelfDrivingCars… that perform the driving functionality when the driver remains engaged in overseeing the automated driving and remains completely capable of reengaging in the driving process within very short notice. Their value proposition is the delivery of comfort and convenience to the driver.

* DriverlessCars… that performs all of the driving functionality. No assistance is required or desired to be done by any of the vehicle occupants. These operate as well with or without any person in them. Everyone inside is a passenger. Their value proposition is purely an economic one in which no human labor expense is incurred in the provision of mobility. This economic benefit can be profound in not only substantially reducing the cost of mobility but also enabling levels of service and vehicle utilization that are substantially better than can otherwise be achieved. Alain

Monday, June 26 2023

San Francisco’s fire chief is fed up with robotaxis that mess with her firetrucks. And L.A. is next

R. Mitchell, June 26, “Robotaxis keep tangling with firefighters on the streets of San Francisco, and the fire chief is fed up.

“They’re not ready for prime time,” Chief Jeanine Nicholson said….

State regulators track robotaxi collisions, but they don’t track data on traffic flow issues, such as street blockages or interference with firetrucks.

But the Fire Department does. Since Jan. 1, the Fire Department has logged at least 39 robotaxi incident reports…

State regulators track robotaxi collisions, but they don’t track data on traffic flow issues, such as street blockages or interference with firetrucks.

The Fire Department incidents include reports of robotaxis:…

Safety data censored

In 2021, the DMV joined with Waymo on a court-approved dealto allow driverless car companies to censor not only trade secrets but basic information on safety performance, including most details of collision reports as well as information on how the company handles driverless car emergencies

The industry is tight with the information it releases to the public about its operations on public roads.

Waymo won’t say how many cars it runs in San Francisco. Cruise said it operates 150 to 300 cars but won’t be more precise. Neither company will say how large its fleet will grow, or how quickly. Neither Waymo nor Motional will say how many robotaxis they’re testing in Santa Monica and L.A….” Read more Hmmmm… Devastating in so many ways. The SF “proof-of-market” is a train wreck! Time for a major pivot! Watch PodCast 323 with Russ. Alain

Wednesday, June 21 2023

A Driverless Contest for Mid-Size Cities

K. Pyle, June 14, “A benefit of travel is the random conversations with strangers that cause one to look at the world in a slightly different way. For instance, standing in the airport security line this week, a lady from Little Rock, AR explained that Uber and Lyft no longer serve the hometown of the Bill Clinton Presidential Library.

[Fact check, according to its website, Lyft and Uber, as well as other local providers serve the Clinton National Airport.]

She said their apps indicated that their respective services were not available. She believes this happened as a result of the pandemic.

Fact check; Perhaps there still is [a dearth of drivers as reported in 2021.]

She described the taxi service in the Little Rock area as “awful”. It takes an hour and a half to get one. She also doesn’t feel safe in a taxi especially compared to Uber/Lyft…

If her perception of the limited mobility choices is representative of the population, perhaps Little Rock would be a great use case for a driverless service. I forwarded this question to Princeton Professor Kornhauser and Michele Lee of Cruise for them to ponder and look forward to any feedback they might have (Kornhauser comments about this in the latest SmartDrivingCars podcast).

As background, the three of us serendipitously converged at CES2023 and talked about mobility challenges. In a soundbite from that interview, Lee explains the challenges and opportunities for improving mobility and questions whether she could make the journey to Alain’s house. There are glimpses of her entering and securing her wheelchair in the Cruise, driverless Origin vehicle….” Read more Hmmmm… Check out ZoomCast322 below. Be sure to also look at Ken’s embedded video with Michelle. Alain

Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Watch: A conversation on the U.S. autonomous vehicle industry

Axios events, June,7, “On Wednesday, June 7 in Washington, D.C., Axios transportation correspondent Joann Muller and business reporter Nathan Bomey hosted conversations exploring the growth of the American autonomous vehicle industry. Guests included Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio), and National Disability Institute director of health equity Elizabeth Layman. A View from the Top sponsored segment featured Cruise chief legal and policy officer Jeff Bleich….

Rep. Bob Latta discussed how driver safety is informing congressional efforts to accelerate autonomous vehicle regulation.

1. On rising deaths from traffic accidents due to driver error:…

Sen. Gary Peters highlighted strong U.S. ambitions to lead in developing the technologies needed to support the growth of a domestic autonomous vehicle industry.

1. On competition to be a leader in the future of mobility:…

Elizabeth Layman explained how autonomous vehicles could expand job prospects for people with disabilities in providing more options for transportation.

1. On a recent National Disability Research report studying the impacts of AVs for people with disabilities:…”

Read more Hmmmm… Watch attached video, and…. All those initiatives are very important, but the highest value “low hanging fruit” is Origin’s fundamental ability to provide affordable, high-quality mobility to the large number of people who “need a ride”.

Many of those people today, don’t get to go where they wanted to go at the time they wanted to go because, they couldn’t “get a ride”. Some went through extra-ordinary “pain” to get the ride they got, but unfortunately, the pain they incurred in getting that ride diluted the value and quality-of-life they could have gotten had the ride not been so challenging to get. Those that didn’t go, did something and got some personal value in doing that, but got less value than if they could have gotten a high-quality affordable ride to where they really wanted to go.

Origin, properly deployed and operated, especially in MOVES-style fashion, can readily deliver those rides safely and is “Made in America” and environmentally responsible and can readily use its flexibility to better serve the needs of those with disabilities. Alain

Friday, June 2, 2023

NHTSA Proposes Automatic Emergency Braking Requirements for New Vehicles

Press release, May 31, “The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration today announced a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would require automatic emergency braking and pedestrian AEB systems on passenger cars and light trucks. The proposed rule is expected to dramatically reduce crashes associated with pedestrians and rear-end crashes.

NHTSA projects that this proposed rule, if finalized, would save at least 360 lives a year and reduce injuries by at least 24,000 annually. In addition, these AEB systems would result in significant reductions in property damage caused by rear-end crashes. Many crashes would be avoided altogether, while others would be less destructive.

“Today, we take an important step forward to save lives and make our roadways safer for all Americans,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said. “Just as lifesaving innovations from previous generations like seat belts and air bags have helped improve safety, requiring automatic emergency braking on cars and trucks would keep all of us safer on our roads.” …” Read more Hmmmm… This is substantial and you must read Notice of Proposed Rulemaking which contains the details, especially page 14 (interesting that it states:”… all speeds above 10 km/h (6.2 mph), even if these speeds are above the speeds tested by NHTSA…”. Does this mean that If I’m doing x over the speed limit, say 100mph, the system must remain functionable and very rarely suffer from false positives. Fantastic!

Also pay attention to the phase “imminent collision” that is supposed to trigger into action such a system. One must be very precise in the definition of “imminent” (is it really “1.6 seconds to collision” or ???). I might suggest that nothing is imminent. There is a physical process that evolves over time from a state in which everything in “hunk-dory” to a time when one is between the “rock & hard place”. Maybe the Advance Driver Assistance System (ADAS, intelligent cruise control, et al) should be communicating with the AEB so as to avoid, as much as possible, ever getting to that magical “imminent” point. The more that can be done to prepare and begin to do things as one passes through 2.0, 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, 1,65, 1.625, … so as to raise back up the time to collision to 1.65, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9. 2.0, .. infinity, the better!

If this is done well, the driver may not even be aware that it is happening. Then: No complaints! No taking the car back to the dealer and claiming it is a lemon! No or greatly reduced “false imminent train wrecks” (especially when traveling at high speeds!!!). Doing this well delivers enormous value to the driver and society!

Here is what Neal Boudette of the NY Times and Andrew Hawkins of Verge wrote about this. Alain

Friday, May 19, 2023

Don’t Fall for the Hype or Hysteria About ChatGPT. Don’t be Complacent, Either.

Chunka Mui, April 28, “If you’re trying to decide how to invest in Generative AI and ChatGPT, take special heed of Amara’s Law,

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

This caution is especially warranted for technologies that rocket so quickly from research playthings to media headlines, like ChatGPT.

Don’t succumb to the hype or the hysteria. Don’t be complacent, either. Instead, before making any big decisions or strategic investments, take time to understand the technology and its applications, implications and limitations from your own organizational and personal context. And to really understand it, remember the observation of Marvin Minsky, the cognitive scientist and cofounder of the MIT AI Laboratory:

You don’t really understand something if you only understand it one way….” Read more Hmmmm… Additional good thoughts from Chunka: “We’re just a few days past Mother’s Day, maybe that’s what brought my mind to the phrase “Ai ai aiii…” in response to all the headlines around AI these days. That was something my mom used to say in exasperation when things got a little carried away around my house as a kid.

          Don't get me wrong, as someone with a front row seat
          during earlier up and down eras of AI, I find the recent
          progress and tools amazing, almost even magical. But, both
          the hype and hysteria are a bit too breathless. As one
          eminent AI scientist recently said, "Calm down people. We
          neither have super powerful AI around the corner, nor the
          end of the world caused by AI about to come down upon
          us."

Hence the theme of three of my recent articles, one on AI in general and the others looking more specifically at AI in Health Care and Insurance is the same: Don’t panic. Don’t be complacent. Instead: think big, start small and learn fast, guided by a robust future history.

1. Don’t Fall for the Hype or Hysteria About ChatGPT. Don’t be Complacent, Either.

2. How AI Could Reshape the Future History of Health Care (for the Better and Worse)

3. 6 Words to Focus Your AI Innovation Strategy

Hope you enjoy them. Please like, share and comment if you can. That really helps the bots know to spread the word (and would have made my mom smile).

          Cheers, and may every day be a Happy Mother's Day for all
          the moms in your life."  I
          couldn't agree more. Alain

Friday, May 12, 2023

Waymo doubles robotaxi service area in Phoenix in bid to grow driverless trips tenfold

K. Korosec, May 4, “Waymo is doubling its commercial robotaxi service area in the Phoenix metro area, an expansion that will add new suburbs and connect previously isolated sections of the sprawling and car-dependent desert city.… “ Read more Hmmmm… This has the potential to be important news.

Phoenix has been a great “Proof of Technology/Safety” for Waymo. Safe, driverless mobility has been established in a substantial Operational Design Domain (ODD). The objective of that “Proof of Technology/Safety” was: operate safely throughout the ODD without attendants. The performance metric was essentially no disengagements and essentially no crashes throughout the ODD with an attendant on board. Then pull the attendant and demonstrate essentially no disengagements and essentially no crashes throughout the ODD.

Proof of Market requires the service be attractive enough such that sufficient individuals choose Waymo One as the means by which they go from point A to point B, leaving at or about time t. For Waymo One to be the chosen by an individual means it had to be -perceived by the traveler as being THE best way to go for this trip at this time. Not the 5th best, or the 3rd best or even the 2nd best. It had to be THE best for that individual for that {A,B, t}.

Users of Waymo One come from an addressable market made up of trips that would be taken by conventional means, had Waymo One not existed, plus the inducement of new trips because Waymo One is so much better than all other options so as to make the destination + the travel so desirable that the individual decides to make the trip rather than not go.

To become #1 in the eyes of a potential customer, Waymo One has many positives:

1. It is safe: OK, but not substantially safer than other ways Arizonians have among their choice set as to how to travel. Likely not enough to elevate Waymo One above their current way to go. So safety by itself is not a differentiator. In economic jargon, the demand elasticity of safety is essentially zero at current safety levels.

2. The technology: OK; however, this is a “one and done” greatness that generates a “selfie” on the first use and little perceived benefit thereafter. The cost of customer acquisition is so non-trivial that it needs to be focused on repeat customers and not “one & done”s; where the service is rarely perceived to be better than one’s own car or an expense account ride hailing, taxi or limousine trip.

3. Service is inexpensive and can be made affordable with vehicle productivity and scale: Great! This is an attribute that is really important at the current moment to folks who don’t have access to their own car and who are paying their own way.

4. Service is high-quality in that its flexibility can allow it to respond to a customer’s demand rather than having the customer change their desire in order to correlate to a schedule and a route: Great, especially to those for which affordability is important so there isn’t need to trade off price with service. Moreover, the service can be made even better in the future such that even car owners may change their car-buying behavior because Waymo’s service has become so good and so affordable that they pivot.

My recommendation would be for Waymo to concentrate their “Proof of Market” on serving customers who currently don’t have access to their own car, can’t readily get a ride from someone, and will appreciate how inexpensively Waymo One can afford to deliver a safe, high-quality ride. Once focused on serving the mobility desires of this market segment, then Waymo One can pass the “Proof of Market” test by achieving a vehicle productivity of 100 person trips per day per vehicle. That productivity allows them to scale and be relevant and profitable. Is it any surprise that I am suggesting they work with us in Trenton and on other MOVES-style projects? 😊 Alain

Thursday, May 4, 2023

S&P Dow Jones Indices to Calculate The Road to Autonomy Index Tracking Autonomous Vehicles and Logistics

The Road to Autonomy, April 25. “The Road to Autonomy®, a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles and logistics, has selected S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) to be the custom calculation agent for The Road to Autonomy Index (ticker: AUTONOMY) and The Road to Autonomy Total Return Index (ticker: AUTOMYTR). The Road to Autonomy Index, comprised of 38 publicly-traded companies, measures the performance of the autonomous vehicle and logistics ecosystems, including autonomous vehicles, trucks and off-road specialty vehicles, as well as transportation, technology, industrial and services companies that have identified autonomy as a key component of their growth strategies.

“The Road to Autonomy Index provides a comprehensive view into this dynamic sector that is poised to shape the future of how we live and work,” said Grayson Brulte, founder and chief executive officer of The Road to Autonomy. “Our unmatched knowledge of the industry and the influences that drive it give us unique perspective into its potential, and our partnership with S&P DJI provides a foundation of integrity and transparency for the Index.”… “ Read more Hmmmm… Very interesting. See ZoomCast 316/PodCast 316 below Alain

Thursday, April 20, 2023

As Appears in the NY Times (& CNN)

April 20, 2023, ”…

“ Read more Hmmmm….. Check out the guy in the Orange shorts. My 2nd live launch. My 1st was July 16, 1969, Cape Kennedy, Apollo 11. 😎

Thursday, April 6, 2023

While On-Road Driverless Slows, Ag-Tech Autonomy Players Are Plowing Ahead

R. Bishop, March 30, “The John Deere Company wowed the crowds at the 2023 Consumer Electronics Show in January with their high-tech agricultural equipment. At their exhibit, heads craned upward in awe to take in the 120 ft boom of their precision spraying technology, straddled atop a massive tractor. At the CES 2022, Deere & Company introduced a fully autonomous tractor.

In the months since CES, we’ve seen multi-faceted challenges for companies seeking to transform road-running Automated Driving Systems (ADS) into a profitable business. ADS developer Embark announced a shutdown and Locomation appears to be on the same path. The mood of investors is uncertain, especially given troubles in the banking sector.

Against this backdrop, the off-road world is becoming increasingly interesting for companies developing autonomy. Caterpillar and Komatsu brought the first commercial ADS’s to mining operations well over a decade ago. At that time, although the tech was very expensive, a business case could be made for equipping the huge mine-hauling trucks at open pit mines.

Since that time, thanks to the tidal wave of AV development for passenger cars, trucks, robo-shuttles, delivery robots, and more, the tech cost has now come down to reasonable levels for other types of industrial operations. Plus, the tech robustness has progressed by leaps and bounds. The result? Use cases are expanding rapidly in areas such as agriculture and construction. For this article, I’ll dig into the Ag space to examine the linkages with on-road autonomy….” Read more Hmmmm….. Right on, Dick! Such a timely and excellent post.

As I wrote last week in and is repeated below… ” The objective of the 6th SmartDrivingCars Summit will be to put the eventual manufacturers of driverless passenger vehicles together with the eventual operators of transportation services to decide if there is a business to be made from delivering affordable mobility to a large segment our societies who are underserved by the current options: private cars and public transport.

It’s already happening with military and work vehicles”… ! Alain

Friday, March 24, 2023

ITU 2023 Future Networked Car Symposium: Automated Driving Systems (ADS) for Consumers and Other Vehicles (Trucks, Delivery, Shuttles, Robotaxis, Etc.)

R. Lanctot, March 12, “ Full automation of the driving task appears tantalizingly close. Multiple use cases are emerging simultaneously, revealing potential paths to market adoption and consumer acceptance. The evolution of these use cases will determine the future of ADS. This panel will review the emerging ADS applications – consumer vehicles, commercial vehicles, delivery vehicles, shuttles, robotaxis – to better understand the challenges and opportunities associated with ADS technology and the state of development and market adoption.….” Read more Hmmmm….. After almost 15 years of substantive testing (the Google effort started in 2009) and almost 20 years since the first DARPA Challenge, we are still only “… revealing potential paths to market adoption and consumer acceptance …”???

Isn’t it about time that this teenager start delivering some tangible return to its “parents” and society. For what is supposed to be such a disruptive technology it has yet to identify the market where it has decisive cost or quality advantage over the existing firms. (over the existing solutions it is trying to replace.)

It might be as safe as good drivers (It might be safer than bad drivers), but it has no chance anytime soon to being disruptively safer. It is not disruptively more fun to drive. Just ride around with it, that’s a service, not a possession. It has no chance at being a consumer vehicle.

… ADS has equally no chance at replacing commercial vehicle drivers. Helping professional drivers have an enhanced workplace? Yes! Removing them from their workplace? No!

Some special purposed deliveries in the middle of the night? Maybe.

Shuttles… at best a very small one-off niche with no opportunity to be disruptive.

Robotaxis designed and operated so as to serve rich ride-hailers and the chauffeured limousine market? Good luck! Service quality is really important and price is essentially irrelevant (these folks are rich and/or are traveling on an expense account). It is a non-trivial challenge for Robotaxis to deliver service quality approaching that of Uber/Lyft/Limo; so at best, these Robotaxis can only nip at the heels of Uber/Lyft/Limo, which itself is way less than 1% of the daily vehicle person-trips under 50 miles in length. Even if Robotaxis got’em all, there’s nowhere near enough to justify any continued investment here.

These conundrums are NOT what was discussed in this session.

Unfortunately, what was also not discussed or realized is that there does exist an enormous market for demand-responsive Robotaxi service that is affordable. 50% of the people in the U.S. are not physically able to drive a car, or are not financially able to own one for themselves. They still need to get to work, to shops, to medical and rehab facilities, to school, to friends, to … and the fact that they cannot readily and affordably affects their well-being and the health of the entire country. This is a huge market where a demand-responsive and affordable service is disruptive because it delivers mobility to those who need a ride but are not being served by any transport alternatives which they can afford. THAT’S WHERE DRIVERLESS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE! Affordability is really important to those who are paying for their own travel and are non-rich. Thus, affordable, demand responsive Robotaxi service can readily be the best consumer choice for that 50%.

The addressable market here is ~150M people over the age of 10, wishing to make ~ 500M personTrips a day in the USA that don’t have their own car waiting around for them to drive it to take them where they want to go at the drop of a hat. To offer them with on-demand affordable Robotaxis service that is almost as well (and maybe even better) as if they did have that personal car, would be very disruptive to some, even many and eventually “all”. A well-managed (100 personTrips per day per Robotaxi, 20% profit margin) fleet of 5M Robotaxis could serve essentially all. Serving 1% would need 50,000. Serving a targeted opportunity representing the first 0.001% would require 50. This panel made no mention of this use case. No mention of the business case.

Let’s continue this panel discussion at the 6 th Princeton SmartDrivingCars Summit in May 22->24. A major part of the Summit is devoted to this one topic: Delivering Mobility to the Non-mobile. We’re going to talk about the business case, something that is sorely missing in public discussion so far. Alain

Sunday, March 19, 2023

ITU 2023 Future Networked Car Symposium: Session 2: Using Automotive Artificial Intelligence to Improve Vehicle Safety, Services and Transport Management

M. Sena, March 11., “ …During the next 3 h our panel of experts will discuss the topic of automated automotive artificial intelligence which is artificial intelligence applied to vehicle safety services, and transport management. I guarantee you they will do a much better job than ChatGPT or I’ll personally refund your attendance fees.

The generally accepted definition of artificial intelligence or AI is the application of computers and machines to mimic the problem-solving and decision making capabilities of the human mind….”Read more Hmmmm….. Must watch video of session 2, Fantastic session, especially the very frank remarks by Prof. Missy Cummings. Also watch the other 3 sessions linked here Alain

Monday, March 13, 2023

SpaceX Continues Rapid Development of Starship Infrastructure - Starbase Weekly Update #53

LabPadre, March 12, “This week at Starbase Raptor installation begins on Booster 9, construction continues on Ships 28 and 30, Ship 26 is parked at the ring yard and the nosecone test article is set to Massey’s test site, while at Cape Canaveral SpaceX maintains a blinding pace of launch and recovery operations, ULA’s first Vulcan rocket begins testing, and we review a new batch of flyover photos courtesy of Greg Scott….” Read more Hmmmm….. Watch video. Excellent weekly update. Alain

Starbase Live: 24/7 Starship & Super Heavy Development From SpaceX’s Boca Chica Facility

MasaSpaceflight, Live, “Starship is SpaceX’s fully reusable launch system which is being developed at Starbase in Cameron County, Texas. Starbase LIVE provides 24/7 coverage of the exciting developments and testing progress….” Read more Hmmmm….. Watch LiveStream 24/7. Alain

Wednesday, March 8, 2023

GM Announces Ultra Cruise, Enabling True Hands-Free Driving Across 95 Percent of Driving Scenarios

Press release, March 6, “Today, General Motors unveiled Ultra Cruise, an all-new, advanced driver-assistance technology and significant next step in the company’s journey to enable its goal of zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion. Designed to ultimately enable hands-free driving in 95 percent of all driving scenarios, Ultra Cruise eventually can be used on every paved road in the U.S. and Canada.

        Ultra Cruise will cover more than 2 million miles of roads
        at launch in the United States and Canada, with the capacity
        to grow up to more than 3.4 million miles. Customers will be
        able to travel truly hands free with Ultra Cruise across
        nearly every road including city streets, subdivision
        streets and paved rural roads, in addition to highways.….

GM’s two hands-free advanced driver-assist systems will coexist in the company’s lineup with Super Cruise available on more mainstream vehicles and Ultra Cruise reserved for premium entries.

        "The combination of Ultra Cruise for premium offerings and
        Super Cruise for lower-cost products will enable us to offer
        driver-assist technology across price points and segments,"
        said Parks....

Always pay attention while driving and when using Ultra Cruise and Super Cruise. Do not use a hand-held device. …. “ Read more Hmmmm….. Very interesting. High-end and includes LiDAR See ZoomCast 307 / PodCast 307 and Andrew Hawkins’ “GM’s Ultra Cruise will use radar, camera, and lidar to enable hands-free driving”, below. Alain

Friday, March 03, 2023

First Million Rider-Only Miles: How the Waymo Driver is Improving Road Safety

The Waymo team, Feb 28, “Waymo has achieved many global industry firsts. Each time we delight our riders and deliver on our mission safely, we are proudest. In January, we accomplished another first: we exceeded one million miles on public roads with no human behind the wheel. …

To provide a more in-depth look into the performance of the Waymo Driver and where it stands compared to human driving, we’ve published a research paper that summarizes the contact events that we experienced during the first one million miles of our rider-only operations….

T. Victor, et al. “Safety Performance of the Waymo Rider-Only Automated Driving System at One Million Miles”

ABSTRACT: This paper examines the safety performance of the Waymo Driver™, Waymo’s Automated Driving System (ADS). It analyzes one million miles of driving on public roads in parts of California and Arizona with no human behind the wheel– what we call rider-only (RO) operations. There were no reported injuries, and only two collisions that were comparable to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Crash Investigation Sampling System (“CISS”), a nationally representative collision database of collisions that were police reported and in which at least one vehicle was towed. There were an additional 18 minor-contact events that were too minor to meet the tow-away and police-report criteria for CISS, where nine of these 20 contact events had no damage….

The first event that occurred had the highest severity of the 20 contact events: … In this event, the Waymo vehicle was struck in the rear while slowing for a red light by a car driven by a teenage driver. Rearward facing video recorded by the ADS suggests the driver of the other vehicle was looking at a cell phone held near the steering wheel immediately prior to the collision…. “ Read more Hmmmm….. The entire paper is worth a very careful read. Performance during this first million miles is very impressive. While in the scope of things it is not very many miles, the first of anything is never very many and often it is when bad things happen. Look at what happened to Uber in the beginning.

Enormous kudos to Waymo (and Cruise). They have, in my opinion, demonstrated that they can move people safely in an ODD. Hopefully, they’ll now look for an ODD where they can safely provide mobility most of the time (NOT necessarily every day, but are confident that they can do it, say, 350 days a year) and certainly NOT everywhere in the ODD (instead find the safest set of streets and intersections that allows them to deliver interconnected on-demand mobility requiring only a short walk (~less than 5 minutes) between most of the locations within that ODD/community). They then can build an affordable, equitable high=quality mobility system for the residents of that/those ODD(s)

There are many such communities throughout the country, many of which are communities where auto ownership is low, transit service is, at best, poor and the mobility offered would substantially improve the quality of life of many.

Waymo’s (or Cruise’s) provision of safe, affordable, on-demand mobility would be an enormous public service as well as providing a basis from which to scale to meet thire due diligence obligation to deliver substantial return on investment to Alphabet (and GM). Alain

Friday, February 17, 2023

Carmakers Are Pushing Autonomous Tech. This Engineer Wants Limits.

C. Metz, Feb. 15, Last fall, Missy Cummings sent a document to her colleagues at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that revealed a surprising trend: When people using advanced driver-assistance systems die or are injured in a car crash, they are more likely to have been speeding than people driving cars on their own.

The two-page analysis of nearly 400 crashes involving systems like Tesla’s Autopilot and General Motors’ Super Cruise is far from conclusive. But it raises fresh questions about the technologies that have been installed in hundreds of thousands of cars on U.S. roads. Dr. Cummings said the data indicated that drivers were becoming too confident in the systems’ abilities and that automakers and regulators should restrict when and how the technology was used.

People “are over-trusting the technology,” she said. “They are letting the cars speed. And they are getting into accidents that are seriously injuring them or killing them.”…” Read more Hmmmm…. Yup!! Discussion is in SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 304 / PodCast 304 W/Missy Cummings

Friday, February 3, 2023

SF Officials Describe Chaos From Cruise, Waymo Cars as They Try To Slow Their Rollout

K. Truong, Jan 30, “Firefighters were battling a major house fire near the intersection of Hayes and Divisadero streets early in the morning of Jan. 22 when a Cruise vehicle with no safety driver started to creep its way into the emergency scene.

Two firefighters stood in front of the car to prevent the vehicle from driving over hoses used to douse the growing inferno, but that didn’t work. As the car continued to inch forward, one firefighter took quick action and smashed the vehicle’s front window, finally bringing the car to a stop. First responders contacted Cruise, who sent workers to move the vehicle out of the way. …

That was just one of 92 unique incidents between May 29 and Dec. 31—mainly from Cruise—cited by San Francisco transit officials, who are strongly urging for tighter oversight as “robotaxi” services look to massively expand their operations…

Alain Kornhauser, … pinned the companies’ missteps on an effort to grab market share from Lyft and Uber rather than solving for transportation gaps.

“To me, the shame of these companies is that they have a solution, and they are still looking for a problem,” Kornhauser said. “The objective of this is not a selfie in a self-driving car; it’s to provide mobility to folks who don’t have it and ultimately improve their quality of life.”… Read more Hmmmm…. Well said 😊 For a solution (driverless mobility) that could be doing so much good for so many who have so little mobility that even “transit officials” would be sending them high praise ,they instead seem to be singularly focused on providing yet another alternative to those that already have too many great mobility options. Their hammer is simply focused on the wrong nail and this is especially debilitating when the first nail is the wrong nail. The self-inflicted pain is so much greater when there is little, if anything, gained by hitting, let alone missing, the wrong nail. Alain

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Riding Nairobi’s Craziest Matatu, Kenya

J. Billam, Feb. 11 ‘22, “I show my wild experience riding Nairobi’s Craziest Matatu (local bus) bound for Rongai in Kenya’s capital city… “ Watch more Hmmmm… If we aren’t going to have Moves-style Autonomous Transit Networks, then Matatus may well be the answer to safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, and colorful mobility. Millions take them every day in Nairobi, Kenya. Amazing. J Alain

All Nairobi Matatu Routes at your fingertips!

” Have you ever found yoursel in town with no idea how to get to a certain destination using Public Transport and you end up calling friends or asking strangers where a certain Matatu stage is? You are not alone!! Thousands of Nairobians go through this daily!

So us cool peeps at MyRide Africa thought to bring this to an end so that you never get lost in Nairobi again! We have the all new Matatu Map on the App that can help you to find any route in Nairobi in 3 easy steps…’‘ Read more Hmmmm… Just returned from a trip of a life time to Kenya. Absolutely fantastic experience Alain

Friday, January 13, 2023

RFP NO. 22DBM0071 BUFFALO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM FOR THE UNDER SERVED (ITS4US): SELF-DRIVING SHUTTLES

S. Still, Jan. 10, Project Overview: University at Buffalo is issuing this Request for Proposals (RFP) to solicit proposals from qualified firms to provide self-driving shuttle vehicles and operations in the Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus and surrounding neighborhoods. The project is funded by the US Department of Transportation as part of its ITS4US program.

Proposal Date/Time:

February 1, 2023 2:30pm EST. Proposals received after the specified time will not be accepted.

The Request for Proposals (RFP) documents are available now by registering through this link: https://www.nyscr.ny.gov/adsOpen.cfm Questions can be addressed to David Markey, Senior Buyer, at dbmarkey@buffalo.edu. ….” Read more Hmmmm… I love what Dr. Steve Still is trying to do in Buffalo. All the best. Alain

Friday, December 30, 2022

Automotive AI Is Making Both Cars and Drivers Better

M. Sena, Dec. 28, “ AUTOMOTIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AAI) is a term that has different meanings, depending upon who is using it. For some, it means completely removing the human from the driving task and turning over control of the vehicle to software and sensors. For others, the goal of AAI is to supplement and improve the human driver’s abilities in order to make driving safer, offer new and better services, and increase the effectiveness of transport management. The latter goal, improving the driving experience, has proven achievable with AI that accomplishes one or a limited set of objectives. The former goal, removing the human from the driving task, has proven to be devilishly difficult because the car needs to drive at least as well as a human.

AI that can approximate a human, that has the ability to understand and learn any intellectual task that a human can, is called Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It is also called ‘Strong AI’, with its six major branches: machine learning, neural networks, robotics, expert systems, fuzzy logic and natural language processing. AI that has proven to be excellent at accomplishing one goal at a time, like playing chess, or interpretring spoken commands or answering questions like APPLE’s SIRI, is called ‘Weak AI’. ….” Read more Hmmmm….. If Elon can call FSD “FSD”, then Michael can call AI“AI”. (Please at least read The Turing Test). Both are names that enormously over-state their realities. FSD is not anywhere near Full anything and AI is nowhere near Intelligent. Both do a few cute things in very narrow circumstances and neither can find their way out of a paper bag. Alain

Sunday, December 25, 2022

Autonomous Vehicles Reality Check Part 2: Moving People

R. Bishop, Dec. 22, “ Recent reporting/blogging about AV’s can be maddeningly confusing, because the days of saying anything meaningful about “AV’s” as a singular entity are long past. What’s going on depends on what kind of AV you’re talking about. Writers and pundits can pontificate about “the trouble in AV City” if they want, but they must first explain what AV sector they’re referring to. To make sweeping statements is meaningless; the dynamics of the technical, operational, and business factors are too diverse. Thus this three-part article series, my shot at describing the great breadth of today’s AV’s and providing color commentary.

        A fundamental AV distinction regards what's inside the
        vehicle: people or freight? This Part Two article focuses on
        moving people. Part Three will focus on moving goods.

Two Distinct Domains: Private or Commercial? ….” Read moreHmmmm….. Excellent, must read that among other things makes clear the distinction between what are largely orthogonal markets: Private (selling a vehicle) and Commercial (selling a ride) .

What is missing, especially in the “selling a ride” coordinate is appreciation for the diversity of the “people” being moved. The spectrums spanning poor -> rich; young ->old; able-> dis-able; conservative -> liberal; …. that reflect not only on when & where each of those individuals choose to go but also on their choice as which commercial AV deployment, they’ll choose to make the trip that today isn’t made or switch from the way they are going today.

As we know from the movement of goods, one size doesn’t fit all; one deployment doesn’t fit all. Pick-ups do well for haulin’ some of your own stuff, Class 8’s for big valuable stuff. Then there are flatbeds, tankers, cements, choo choos, boats, … and so on for very specific stuff. It ends up really mattering what good it is when it comes to figuring out what and how to deploy something to best move it.

My point is the discussion about deployment along the private and especially the commercial domains has failed to recognize the diversity of the customer set and is failing to deploy near-term capabilities to be better serve the mobility needs of individuals that would be best served by that deployment.

Moving people is a “big-dimensional” market characterized by foudomains: {P, A, B, t} where P = people; A = from location; B = to location; t = time.

Deployment must address not only the diversity of A, B and t but also that of P. In order for an AV deployment to capture a customer it needs to be the best for that customer when that customer wishes to go from A to B at time t. That’s the deployment challenge . The diversity of P is certainly as important as that of A, B and t. To date the deployment focus has been one-size to fit all that has fit very few in the deployed Operational Design Domain. Alain

Saturday, December 17, 2022

Once You See the Truth About Cars, You Can’t Unsee It

Guest Opinion: A. Ross & J. Livingston,Dec. 15, “ In American consumer lore, the automobile has always been a “freedom machine” and liberty lies on the open road. “Americans are a race of independent people” whose “ancestors came to this country for the sake of freedom and adventure,” the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce’s soon-to-be-president, Roy Chapin, declared in 1924. “The automobile satisfies these instincts.” During the Cold War, vehicles with baroque tail fins and oodles of surplus chrome rolled off the assembly line, with Native American names like Pontiac, Apache, Dakota, Cherokee, Thunderbird and Winnebago — the ultimate expressions of capitalist triumph and Manifest Destiny.

But for many low-income and minority Americans, automobiles have been turbo-boosted engines of inequality, immobilizing their owners with debt, increasing their exposure to hostile law enforcement, and in general accelerating the forces that drive apart haves and have-nots. ….” Read moreHmmmm….. The fundamentals of our MOVES approach to the deployment is focused directly on providing a high-quality affordable alternative to this community. Moreover, the comment that the NYT posted with the article. Alain

Sunday, December 11, 2022

I’m going to the moon!!!… Literally!

T. Dodd, Dec. 8, “t’s true! I have been chosen as one of the members of the incredible dearMoon mission around the moon on SpaceX’s Starship rocket. To learn more about the mission and to meet the rest of the crew, visit - http://dearmoon.earth & https://dearmoon.earth/share_crew/tim… And hear more about the announcement from Yusaku Maezawa!!! - https://youtu.be/DKNSlL3Inn8… “ Watch more Hmmmm… So deserving! Tim has done so much to make rigorous “rocket science” understandable by non-rocket scientists while maintaining the rigor. For that substance he has been most justifiable awarded this special honor. Life is good! Tim, you most justifiably earned this incredible privilege. Full disclosure… I’m a long time subscriber to Everyday Astronaut. Alain

Saturday, November 19, 2022

What Riding in a Self-Driving Tesla Tells Us About the Future of Autonomy

C. Metz, Nov. 14, ”Cade and Ian spent six hours riding in a self-driving car in Jacksonville, Fla., to report this story.

When we decided it was time for lunch, Chuck Cook tapped the digital display on the dashboard of his Tesla Model Y and told the car to drive us to the Bearded Pig, a barbecue joint on the other side of town.

“I don’t know how it’s gonna do. But I think it’s gonna do pretty good,” he said with the folksy, infectious enthusiasm he brought to nearly every moment of our daylong tour of Jacksonville, Fla., in a car that could drive itself. …

As the car approached the shadows beneath this mossy canopy, it suddenly changed course, turned sharply right and headed the wrong way down a one-way street: he moment highlighted the difference between Tesla’s self-driving technology and “robotaxi” services being developed by companies like Waymo, owned by the same parent company as Google, and Cruise, backed by General Motors. The robotaxi companies are trying to reduce these unexpected moments by tightly controlling where and how a car can drive. But these services will have strict limitations that make the task easier. The cars will travel only in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds. And company technicians will provide remote assistance to cars that inevitably find themselves in situations they cannot navigate on their own…. “Read more Hmmmm… This is exactly the basis for our MOVES-style approach to deployment. In the near term, this technology has a reasonable chance of being good enough if its calibrations (the released version) has been biased to work well in …” in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds” ,. It must also demonstrated that it does work well (zero disengagements) in a sufficient subset of the streets in those neighborhoods such that the driver/attendant is not needed to ensure safe operation. Substantially better mobility can then be delivered between many locations throughout those neighborhoods in most weather conditions than the mobility available today throughout those neighborhoods.

Unless Driverless is substantially better in delivering mobility to some in some places they will never be more that a fad or fashion statement. Unfortunately, that’s how Driverless has been positioned to date. “My car drives itself! A ride becomes a goofy selfie on TikTok/Instagram/Twitter… Look Mom, no hands!!! Good luck in any repeat customers or near-term RoI.

As we’ve been saying over and over, the substantial value proposition of driverless (or real FSD) is NOT safety (it can be “as safe” but, again, way too difficult for it to be substantially safer) and, in the near term, not a fashion statement or toy for the rich (way too expensive to create that). It certainly can’t be substantially better than one’s own personal car, although it can come close to being as good and maybe even arguably better to some.

The attributes that can make Driverless substantially better than all other forms of mobility is its capability to affordability deliver high-quality (auto-like demand-responsive non-circuitous, 24/7 availability in most weather conditions) mobility affordably while being safe, equitable and environmentally responsive (by facilitating casual ride-sharing when warranted as is done naturally when using elevators). Such a mobility service is offered by Kiosk2Kiosk elevator-like operation throughout the safest subset of interconnecting streets. We call these MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks.

Affordability is THE key differentiator. If you are rich enough to afford a car for yourself and have a driver’s license, then this system isn’t substantially better than what you have now. Neither is it if you can afford to pay and tip an Uber/Lyft gig worker or if your expense account pays for your taxi/limo or black car driver or if you have a chauffeur. Nor if you live in Manhattan or in the very center of a few of our largest cities. For everyone else (the too young, the too old, the too poor, the sufficiently poor that can’t afford a car for each driver in the family, then MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks can readily be transformative. Trenton NJ turns out to be one of these communities where 70% of households have access to one or fewer cars. Perth Amboy, NJ,. Cherry Hill, MD, Patterson, NJ, Scranton, PA are similar. My Mobility Disadvantage Index for places in New Jersey can be found here and for the rest of the US, here.

I am confident that Waymo, Cruise and Tesla could today, make their systems work safely in Trenton and many of the other Mobility Disadvantaged communities if they simply added to their training set the data from driving between the kiosks in, say Trenton, and generated a **.Trenton release of their **Driver to be used exclusively in Trenton to deliver substantially improved mobility to many. Alain

Sunday, November 6, 2022

A Deployment Framework for MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks

A. Kornhauser, Nov. 1, “So much has been happening lately on the AV scene. With all these recent changes in mind, it seems a good moment for me to reiterate the basic fundamentals of mobility and then to restate the context with which I see the potential value of AV technology. In the following presentation, I will identify some pertinent societal challenges where mobility might have an opportunity to substantially improve quality-of-life. Fundamental to this concept is the deployment of technology that disrupts consumer choice, thus allowing the marketplace to deliver both the economic return on the investment in the technology and to unleash the societal benefits of the improved quality-of-life.” Read more Hmmmm… View slides, listen to PodCast and/or watch a repeat of the presentation that I made at the 2022 UBC International Road Safety Symposium. Alain

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Ford, VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down

K. Korosec, Oct 26, “Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment, is shutting down — its parts being absorbed into its two main backers: Ford and VW, according to people familiar with the matter.

        During an all-hands meeting Wednesday, Argo AI employees
        were told that some people would receive offers from the two
        automakers, according to multiple sources who asked to not
        be named. It was unclear how many would be hired into Ford
        or VW and which companies will get Argo's technology.

        Employees were told they would receive a severance package
        that includes insurance and two separate bonuses — an annual
        award plus a transaction bonus upon the deal close with Ford
        and VW. All Argo employees will receive these. For those who
        are not retained by Ford or VW, they will additionally
        receive termination and severance pay, including health
        insurance. Several people told TechCrunch that it was a
        generous package and that the founders of the company spoke
        directly to its more than 2,000 employees..."  ... Certainly
          a "class act" way to shut down.

“…said Farley. “It’s mission-critical for Ford to develop great and differentiated L2+ and L3 applications that at the same time make transportation even safer.” Farley also insinuated that Ford would be able to buy AV tech down the line, instead of developing it in house. “We’re optimistic about a future for L4 ADAS, but profitable, fully autonomous vehicles at scale are a long way off and we won’t necessarily have to create that technology ourselves,” … Read more Hmmmm… What??? What is “L4 ADAS”??? You are really going to do L3 which many believe is harder than L4. L3 is going to require that Ford accept the safety liability and the “obey all the legal operation” liability for the life of the vehicle whenever the driver is able to engage that functionality. There is NO WAY Ford or really any OEM is ever going to take on that substantive amount of liability unless there is such an abundance of fine print that it makes Elon’s proclamations about FSD seem like junior varsity.

We all understand that “L2+” is today’s “50s-style chrome & fins” propelling the selling cars in showrooms as OEMs have always done. Absolutely no need to get to driverless (L4 in some societly or commercially viable ODD).

Idf someone does develop (as I quoted last week) Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: ”… [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”, it is going to simply make it available to allow Ford to continue to serve its customers or will use it to crush Ford? Alain

Argo AI shuts down as Ford, VW pull backing from autonomous-vehicle startup that raised more than $3 billion

L. Sumagaysay, Oct. 27, “…”, Read more Hmmmm… Another view. Alain

Ford thinks driver assist is a safer bet than driverless cars, but it’s fooling itself

1. Hawkins, Oct. 27, “When Ford announced yesterday that it was pulling its support for Argo AI, the autonomous driving startup it had financed since 2017, it cited as one of its reasons a belief that driver-assist technology will have more near-term payoffs…..” Read more Hmmmm… I agree with Andrew, as I stated above. Alain

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Waymo says it’s bringing robotaxis to L.A.

Russ Mitchell, Oct 19, 2022 “The company, owned by Google parent Alphabet, said Wednesday that it plans to make L.A. its next market. “L.A. is in the top three ride-hailing markets in the United States and globally,” said Saswat Panigrahi, the company’s chief product officer. “The commercial opportunity is huge.”

But Waymo offered scant information about its plans, including when the commercial service will begin and how extensive the service’s coverage will be….” Read more Hmmmm… or what the service will be? Ride-hailing??? Compete with Uber/Lyft… good luck! After leading the “testing phase” for the last 13 years, this is their plan for the “deployment phase”. So disappointing! Doesn’t come close to meeting Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: ”… [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”. Alain

Friday, October 14, 2022

The Long Run to Autonomous Vehicles

K. Pyle, Oct. 13, “Autonomous vehicles (AV) provide the opportunity to correct government transportation failures is how the Brookings Institution’s Clifford Winston characterized the potential opportunity provided by autonomous vehicles. Winston spoke to the possible economic impact of autonomous vehicles in an online media briefing (YouTube video) that also included speakers from Princeton and the Reason Foundation who touched on the technology and the role of public policy and regulation. A lively question and answer period followed the briefing….” Read more Hmmmm… Ken, thank you. Excellent. Alain

Saturday, October 08, 2022

Tesla AI Day 2022

Tesla Staff, Sept. 30, “Streamed live…“ Read more Hmmmm… I’m not much of a fan of humanoids so you may skip the first hour; however, starting @ 0:58:00 - FSD Intro, the next hour and a half is substantive and a must watch. My takeaway remains driverless “everywhere” is so enormously challenging that the near-term opportunity (next 10 years) to sell such a vehicle to a consumer is simply unthinkable. The terms & conditions would need to be so onerous making the total addressable market essentially null.

That said, I suspect that there exist some, possibly many, societally beneficial Operational Design Domains (ODD), where “FSD 69.2.2” or near term releases can deliver safe driverless mobility. This deployment strategy is what I with the technical support of CARTS, Inc. have decided to focus on. Alain

Monday, August 22, 2022

Can Tesla Data Help Us Understand Car Crashes?

C. Metz, Aug. 18, “Shortly before 2 p.m. on a clear July day in 2020, as Tracy Forth was driving near Tampa, Fla., her white Tesla Model S was hit from behind by another car in the left lane of Interstate 275.

        It was the kind of accident that occurs thousands of times a
        day on American highways. When the vehicles collided, Ms.
        Forth's car slid into the median as the other one, a blue
        Acura sport utility vehicle, spun across the highway and
        onto the far shoulder.

        After the collision, Ms. Forth told police officers that
        Autopilot — a Tesla driver-assistance system that can steer,
        brake and accelerate cars — had suddenly activated her
        brakes for no apparent reason. She was unable to regain
        control, according to the police report, before the Acura
        crashed into the back of her car.

        But her description is not the only record of the accident.
        Tesla logged nearly every particular, down to the angle of
        the steering wheel in the milliseconds before impact.
        Captured by cameras and other sensors installed on the car,
        this data provides a startlingly detailed account of what
        occurred, including video from the front and the rear of Ms.
        Forth's car.

        It shows that 10 seconds before the accident, Autopilot was
        in control as the Tesla traveled down the highway at 77
        miles per hour. Then she prompted Autopilot to change
        lanes..." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/18/business/tesla-crash-data.html)  Hmmmm...  We've
          been calling for an independent analysis of the Tesla data
          for some time.  Privacy is easy to protect.  There is no
          need to know who owns or was operating each Tesla.  Also
          see [ZoomCast 280](https://youtu.be/VYDu99pKNCc) Alain

Saturday, August 6, 2022

Tesla’s 2022 Shareholder Meeting with Elon Musk

E. Musk, Aug. 4, .” Read more Hmmmm… Watch the Q & A portion starting about an hour in from the start. Watch especially the comments about his vision of the Tesla RoboTaxi (aka driverless cars, what I prefer to call autonomousTaxis or aTaxis, the new “Modern Transit”). The key visions are:

@ t=6375 … the issue of how he sees these driverless vehicles being operated (deployed).

While I don’t agree with the option of owning your own and renting it out “AirB&B -style where B&B = Mobility”. It is easier and more likely to begin by having a Professional entity managing a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis that provide mobility to the everyone in the community. This will be the the “Modern Public Transit”. An example being Trenton MOVES using a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis.

For these RoboTaxis to be attractive to a fleet operator, they will need to be styled differently than consumer versions that are sold to individuals. The RoboTaxi will need to be easy to get in and out and interface well with wheelchairs. They’ll need to accommodate ride-sharing (personTrips are the source of the revenue, not vehicle sales). They should have 4-wheel steering so they will never need to back up in stub-end operation. He has re imagined the pickup truck. Certainly, he can re-imagine a car focused on providing safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable high-quality mobility throughout a community.

At the end of addressing the future of Robotasis he states …“ assuming we do all these things, I think, probably, Tesla will be the most valuable company in the world.”

@ t=7057 Elon is asked “when will Tesla launch the first pilot city for the RoboTaxi business?

Elon dodged the question by stating that he is focused on doing driverless everywhere, even in every imaginable simulation of the real world. Consequently, once achieved, it could be released everywhere al at once.

While a great vision, this is simply not realistic. He started selling Teslas in California, not throughout the whole country. He fully understands that one must crawl before one walks, before one runs.

As you might suspect, I have the ideal “California” for him to first deploy his RoboTaxis and its not California or Arizona. It is New Jersey: Trenton, NJ or Perth Amboy, NJ or Patterson, NJ or many other cities in New Jersey where the mobility offered by Tesla RoboTaxis would be life changing to many while becoming an interesting alternative to everyone else. DoJo can more readily regress the coefficients to deliver safe driverless operation within any one of these Operational Design Domains (ODD) rather than trying to do them all simultaneously. Coefficients can/should be tied to ODDs rather than having one “magical” set that works in all ODDs. It is trivial for the Operating system to load the coefficients that work best in theRoboTaxi’s current ODD. This should allow RoboTaxis to demonstrate their technical, economic and societal virtues much sooner in these communities. Market success will fuel expansion and replication in the delivery of safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, high-quality mobility so that is spreads beyond New Jersey to California and beyond just like the purchase of the first Teslas spread from California to New Jersey and beyond.

@ t=7417 Elon is asked about the Boring Company.

True, if one could bore tunnels inexpensively, it would be great for longer distance travel. Certainly, all of the freeways in and around cities would be placed underground. High Speed rail on the NorthEast Corridor can only go underground for long stretches. Bringing the Dinky to a Nassau Street terminus must be done underground. By the way Washington Road should be underground eradicating the cancer that it is as a surface street severing the Princeton Campus. Then there is Rt. 29 that devastated Trenton by barricading the western part of Trenton from the Delaware River and Rt. 129 that severed neighborhoods; a scenario that was repeated in essentially every city to accommodate through-moving surface travel. They should all go underground. There is much good that could be done. The challenge is the above if.

@ t=6665 “when disengaging autoPilot with the wheel, the accelerator stays on. Please fix it!”

Maybe… touching or not touching the steering wheel has little in common with acceleration (and braking) which is (are) controlled by the feet. The steering control should be readily overcome by input of a torque on the steering wheel; however, the steering control should revert to dominance if the driver ceases to exhort a torque on the wheel. Moreover, torquing the steering wheel should not disengage the brake or the throttle.

With respect to the driver actions on the brake and throttle:

Driver input from the throttle should have precedence over “intelligent cruise control (ICC)” input to the throttle and brake and should NOT turn off the system simply because the driver touched the accelerator pedal.

For the brake, it is a little different. Tapping the brake should turn off the acceleration function of the ICC. Acceleration should remain off until the driver explicitly re-engages it. Moreover, driver input to the brake, if less than what the ICC calls for, should always be dominated by the ICC’s desire to brake. Tapping of the brakes should not turn off the braking function of the ICC. That intelligent brakig function should continue to keep m fro getting to close to the vehicle in front of me. The acceleration function has been turned off so I won’t accelerate into the back of the car ahead of me and the braking function should continue to do its best to keep a proper separation between me and the vehicle ahead. Turning the whole system off placing me completely in control should require an explicit action by me that indicates I’m knowingly usurping responsibility.

I believe ICC should be on all the time. Driver sets the speed and separation (or it is done automatically relative to the speed limit, weather conditions and road curvatures). Driver can choose to override the throttle and override the braking at any time; however, in the absence of overrides, the ICC is in charge. Alain

Saturday June 11, 2022

3 minute Promo: https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4

The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit

Summit Preview Tour

Dr. Steve Still’s Tribute to Heywood Patterson

S. Still, June 3, “… Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. “That’s what eh did all the time,” Deborah Patterson said. “That’s what the loved to do”. …“ Watch VideoHmmmm… A principal reason for “Trenton MOVES”-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson “loved to do” for the many. Alain

Saturday May 28, 2022

The Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles

M. Sena, May 24, “New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel with the Type Approval processes in most countries and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month’s the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.

        There is no Musings in this month's issue. Instead, I have
        put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can
        see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote
        from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric
        vehicles.

        Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are
        welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I
        have written or you just want to let me know that you got
        something out of reading it. ..." [Read more](http://www.michaellsena.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/The-Dispatcher_June_2022.pdf) Hmmmm...  Every
          month, great reading.  Enjoy!  Alain

Friday, April 30, 2022

NJDOT Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program

P. Keller, April 29, “New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton…..” Read more Hmmmm… Very nice. Alain

Saturday, April 23, 2022

Knight Foundation

April 21, “CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at #CoMotionMiami that:

Hmmmm… Yup! See ZoomCast265 Alain

Thursday, April 15, 2022

Musk promises ‘dedicated robotaxi’ with futuristic look from Tesla

H. Jin, April 6, “Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a “dedicated” self-driving taxi that will “look futuristic,” Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe.

        The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and
        sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1
        billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new
        headquarters.

        "Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to
        be a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the
        factory...." [Read more](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-open-texas-factory-critical-growth-ambitions-2022-04-07/)

Hmmmm… Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way to grandma’s house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.

Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn’t have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma’s house. Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to ”Massive Scale“ scale and Massive Profitability.

RoboTaxis’ evolution to ”Massive Scale“ is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn’t seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.

Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. ”Safe” is “safe”, but “high-quality” is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that’s where they’ve already put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for taking selfies.

For those that don’t have their own car for whatever reason (can’t drive, don’t want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful. Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.

Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving “Massive Scale” then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;

1. those that don’t already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.

2. those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.

These are the customers of Trenton MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton’s 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton’s 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year’s 365.25.

They’ll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral! You’ll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, …..

That’s the natural road to ”Massive Scale” for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.

“Massive Scale” starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Taking our next step in the City by the Bay

The Waymo Team, March 30, “This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work. Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we’ve begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of Waymo One riders we’ve been serving in Arizona, making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives….” Read more Hmmmm… Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually deliver “Safe, Equitable, Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility” that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.

Let’s look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers…

Trenton:

Population: 90,000.

PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000

          IntraTrenton: 150,000

PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles

          intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles

Operational Productivity:

          VehicleTrips/Day: 50

Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2

          PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100

          PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000

100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)

50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).

Cost:

          Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life =
          $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip

          Electricity + maintenance + management + ... =
          $0.57/PersonTrip

Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip

New Jersey:

Population: 9+ Million

PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million

IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million

PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles

Operational Productivity

          VehicleTrips/Day: 60

Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5

          PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150

          PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000

10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).

Cost:

          Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life =
          200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43

          Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57

Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00

Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)

10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:

10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000*$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year

90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M*3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value poposition could hae the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)

Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year

Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn’t be completely ignoring me. I guess I’m missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? �� Alain

Moving Forward with Trenton MOVES

K. Pyle, Feb. 9, “Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement…“ Read more Hmmmm… Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain

Smart Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving

Feb. 11, “The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th.” Read more Hmmmm… Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain.

Friday, February 4, 2022

Trenton MOVES

W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,”We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.

Originallyannounced by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.

The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.

The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022 in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to attend. ….” Read more Hmmmm… Another real milestone.

The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the5thPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES’ mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.

Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. Alain

Alain L. Kornhauser, *69, *71, P03, P27

Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering

Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE

Director, Transportation Program

Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering

229 Sherrerd Hall

                Princeton University

                Princeton, NJ

alaink@princeton.edu

                609-980-1427 (c)

This list is maintained by Alain Kornhauser and hosted by the Princeton University LISTSERV. Friday, Nov. 3, 2023

Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023

Monday, June 26 2023

State regulators track robotaxi collisions, but they don’t track data on traffic flow issues, such as street blockages or interference with firetrucks.

Thursday, April 20, 2023

April 20, 2023, ”…

Sunday, March 19, 2023

Monday, March 13, 2023

Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Knight Foundation

Cost:

PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles

Cost:

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