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SmartDrivingCar.com/11.49-Stop_MisBehavin'-12/18/23
49th edition of the 11th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Settle in, folks! I’ve got more than the usual amount to Hmmm. Perfect for those who need an edifying distraction over the Holidays. And I promise there won’t be a test
when we’re back in the New Year J
M. Nayak, Dec. 15, “Tesla Inc.’s biggest
vehicle recall ever threatens to hurt the company’s defense in several high-profile lawsuits it faces over crashes linked to Autopilot.
The automaker’s recall of 2 million cars comes after a top US auto-safety regulator found its driver-assistance program failed to ensure drivers stay attentive….Tesla’s biggest vehicle recall
ever threatens to hurt the company’s defense in several high-profile lawsuits it faces over crashes linked to Auto…”
Read More Hmmmm…. What??? Did M. Nayak actually
read the NHTSA Safety recall, or just talk with ambulance chasers? Read it for yourself (below) and decide. Alain
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Staff, Dec. 12, “The subject population includes certain MY 2012-2023 Model S that are equipped with Autosteer and were produced between October 5, 2012, and December 7, 2023, and all MY 2016-2023
Model X vehicles, all MY 2017-2023 Model 3 vehicles and all MY 2020-2023 Model Y vehicles that are equipped with Autosteer and were produced through December 7, 2023…
Description of the Defect : Basic Autopilot is a package that includes SAE Level 2 advanced driverassistance features, including Autosteer
and Traffic-Aware Cruise Control (TACC), that drivers may choose to engage subject to certain defined operating limitations. Autosteer is an SAE Level 2 advanced driver-assistance feature that, in coordination with the TACC feature, can provide steering, braking
and acceleration support to the driver subject to certain limited operating conditions. Autosteer is designed and intended for use on controlled-access highways when the feature is not operating in conjunction with the Autosteer on City Streets feature. When
Autosteer is engaged, as with all SAE Level 2 advanced driver-assistance features and systems, the driver is the operator of the vehicle. As the vehicle operator, the driver is responsible for the vehicle’s movement with their hands on the steering wheel at
all times, remaining attentive to surrounding road conditions, and intervening (e.g., steer, brake, accelerate or apply the stalk) as needed to maintain safe operation.
…It is surprising that NHTSA requires “hands
on wheel”, rather than “hand near wheel, since Autosteer is steering, and the responsibility of the alert driver is to override Autosteer, and says nothing about “feet
near brake/accelerator,” which is needed if the alert driver is to intervene by braking or accelerating…
In certain circumstances when Autosteer is engaged, the prominence and scope of the feature’s controls
may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse of the SAE Level 2 advanced driver-assistance feature.
Description of the Safety Risk: In certain circumstances when Autosteer is engaged, if a driver misuses the SAE Level 2 advanced driver-assistance
feature such that they fail to maintain continuous and sustained responsibility for vehicle operation and are unprepared to intervene, fail to recognize when the feature is canceled or not engaged, and/or fail to recognize when the feature is operating in
situations where its functionality may be limited, there may be an increased risk of a collision.
Description of Remedy Program : At
no cost to customers, affected vehicles will receive an
over-the-air software remedy, which is expected to begin deploying to certain affected vehicles on or shortly after December 12, 2023, with software version 2023.44.30. Remaining affected vehicles
will receive an over-the-air software remedy at a later date. The
remedy will incorporate additional controls and alerts to those already existing on affected vehicles to further encourage the driver to adhere to their continuous driving responsibility whenever Autosteer is engaged, which includes keeping their hands
on the steering wheel and paying attention to the roadway. Depending on vehicle hardware, the
additional controls will include, among others, increasing the prominence of visual alerts on the user interface, simplifying engagement and disengagement of Autosteer, additional checks upon engaging
Autosteer and while using the feature outside controlled access highways and when approaching traffic controls,
and eventual suspension from Autosteer use if the driver repeatedly fails to demonstrate continuous and sustained driving responsibility while the feature is engaged. Tesla does not plan to include
a statement in the Part 577 owner notification about pre-notice reimbursement because there are no out-of-warranty repairs related to this condition.
Identify How/When Recall Condition was Corrected in Production :
Beginning midday on December 7, 2023, Model S, Model X, Model 3 and Model Y
vehicles in production received a software release that incorporates the software remedy….”
Read More Hmmmm…. This is what I call a fantastic working relationship between
a regulator and a producer to address a safety concern. 1. Identify the problem: driver misbehavior. 2 Work together to construct a software solution imposed by the regulator so that it is now the regulator that has taken responsibility for the proposed
solution. 3. Implement instantaneously using over-the-air updating. Perfect!
TL;DR Seems to me NHTSA has found driver misbehavior to be the root cause of crashes. Seems like an enormous win for Tesla with respect to past crashes, and a safety endorsement for the system in the future
via the expected near-elimination of driver mis-behavior. Insurance should follow suit by voiding coverage if the driver explicitly circumvented ay of NHTSA remedies. Alain
Want more Alain analysis (Alainalysis?
J)? Here it comes!
NHTSA has a full page ad in the Sunday NY Times appealing to drivers to pay attention while driving. Actually, NHTSA should be out front and appeal to drivers to stop mis-behaving while driving. Stop completely
disregarding not only the basic rules of the road like speed limits, not tailgating, not running redlights and not drinking and driving. What is being missed here is the cooperative agreement between NHTSA and Tesla that it is the
mis-use of AutoPilot by drivers that is the safety challenge, and an agreement by Tesla to actively enforce compliance in the use of the feature. No company wants its product to be used in such a way so as to cause injury to its customer/the public.
One would also like to respect the intelligence of one’s customer. Unfortunately, the way cars have been sold over the last 70 years, if not since day one, is the freedom to go from anywhere to anywhere at any time in any way. I am certain every reader of
this newsletter can instantly conjure up any number of striking commercials showing speeding vehicles, vehicles being driven where they should not, and the teeny tiny print at the bottom of one’s TV screen admonishing “Do not attempt” etc. The central car
design principle seems to have been, nothing should be put in the way of using the car however the owner wishes to use the car. If it were not that, then every car would have an engine interlock system that required the driver to be sober and attentive.
Cars would have speed limiters that wouldn’t allow the car to be driven at speeds greater than the speed limit. We would have automated emergency braking systems that worked instead of collision warning systems. And lane keeping systems rather than lane departure
warning systems. Again, I am sure you have other ideas for improving our collective safety as drivers and pedestrians.
What happened here is that NHTSA investigated for more than 2 years numerous crashes involving AutoPilot, must have concluded that the fault in those crashes was
not that AutoPilot failed to work properly when the driver was paying attention, as is clearly articulated by the Tesla owner’s manual; else, NHTSA’s recall directive would have instructed Tesla to either fix those AutoPilot shortcomings or remove the
AutoPilot functionality from all of its vehicles as a safety hazard. NHTSA did not do that because it found that driver mis-behavior was the root cause of the crashes and worked together with Tesla to enhance AutoPilot to more actively enforce the requirement
that the driver remain attentive, and responsible, in its use of AutoPilot. Else, the feature must be turned off. This is a fantastic negotiated recall that allows Tesla to monitor the driver’s use of the system without worry about privacy issues (NHTSA made
me do it) and the taking away functionality that was rightly purchased by a customer, for misuse, as defined and specified by the ultimate safety regulator (NHTSA made me do it). Thus, no class action suit about “give me back my money because you constrained
my use …” This is great.
Plus, the icing on the cake being, Tesla trivially complied with a recall of essentially all of its cars by simply executing an over-the-air update. Something that would have had substantial financial implications
for any other car manufacturer was executed at essentially zero cost by Tesla. Moreover, NHTSA and Tesla can jointly monitor the effectiveness of the recall to ensure the greatest effectiveness at making sure that drivers remain attentive while AutoPilot
is being used. For example, if allowing 5 warnings before disabling AutoPilot for 30 days are not effective at inducing better driver behavior in the use of AutoPilot, then Tesla and NHTSA can do some A/B testing to determine better values than {5,30}.
On could/should also test the “hands on the steering wheel” requirement versus “foot near the brake”, especially given that newer Teslas have eye trackers that are a better indicator that a driver is paying
attention and the assistance that AutoPilot tends to need for an observant driver to “hit the brakes” and slow down, rather than turn the wheel and swerve in order to avoid/mitigate a crash. I’m surprised that NHTSA hasn’t encouraged that drivers “keep foot
near brake” in addition to, or really in preference to “keep hands on wheel”.
Thanks for sticking with me
J Alain
Read More Hmmmm…. See especially
19:44 Autopilot / NHTSA resolution:
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Tesla Bot Update, Tax Credit Changes, Autopilot Resolution, Musk’s University
R. Mauer, Dec. 13, “
0:00 TSLA
0:51 FOMC / interest rates
4:39 Tesla bot updates
8:56 Tax credit changes
12:54 Uber incentives
14:33 Hotel adds Tesla chargers
15:58 Giga Mexico approval
16:46 Cybertrucks at Giga Texas
17:24 Carwow Cybertruck review
19:44 Autopilot / NHTSA resolution
24:16 Musk's university.” Alain
************
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ZoomCast 349 /
PodCast 349 w/Prof. Bryant Walker Smith
F. Fishkin, Dec. 18,
“he Tesla autopilot safety recall and the job cuts at GM Cruise top the headlines on episode 349 of Smart Driving Cars. Bryant Walker Smith, Affiliate Scholar at Stanford Law and Assoc. Professor of Law and Engineering at the
University of So. Carolina, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus May Mobility, a new AI Center at Princeton and more.
0:00 open
23:05 GM Cruise cuts quarter of workforce
36:45 DOT response to AV Industry SOS
54:30 Private driverless mobility services to bring employees to work?
1:00:30 May Mobility beginning fully driverless service in Sun City, Arizona
1:01:48 Psychology Today piece on the psychological effects of self driving cars
1:07:54 Governor of NJ announces AI Center at Princeton
1:11:56 The Real Case for Driverless Mobility by Alain and Michael Sena coming very soon
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Chart #3: What is old is new again
G. Mercer, Dec. 18, “ At the end of the year we look back and ponder on what has changed, what we have learned, and - maybe -
what we have forgotten. It is human nature, since the Renaissance anyway, to focus on the change around us.…
But at my advanced age (68) I am constantly struck by how much has
not changed in the automotive business. From the 100,000-foot level, in 1923 and in 2023 both, we are still (in the USA at least) getting around in personally-owned four-wheeled¹ vehicles, mostly made of steel. Powertrains have evolved, performance has
soared (a current Toyota Corolla GR will easily beat most 1960s Ferraris to 60 mph), safety has dramatically improved, and comfort is off the charts - but the product (and the process of getting it sold) remains at the fundamental level incredibly stable.
Don’t believe me? I dug out my (paper!) copy of the
Automotive News annual almanac from 1958, and browsed the news-highlights section. Herewith is a very biased selection of headlines:
… Chrysler introduces “automatic accelerator” for highway use called…
Auto-Pilot…
But you can imagine my reaction when I stumbled on the Chrysler Auto-Pilot, which is just one hyphen away from Tesla’s own device².
Plus ça change, oui? And for a massive dose of irony delivered from the past to the present, note that the New York
Times article³ about the Chrysler device reports that the company warns “it is not for city driving or congested traffic; it is good only on turnpikes and expressways.” I’ve heard
that somewhere before….
I await a storm of protest from Morgan and Reliant Robin owners!
2…
Which, to be fair to Tesla, has not even 1% of the functionality of Elon’s gizmo. On the other hand, Chrysler charged only $86 for Auto-Pilot.
… given the 10x inflation over that time period, $86. Was a very fair price for an innovative feature. In 2014 Daimler was charging $2,500. for
DISTRONIC PLUS® with Steering Assist …
3…“Stepping Off the Gas,” Paul Friedlander,
NYT, October 13, 1957”.
Read More Hmmmm…. I’m speechless!
Glenn, you are amazing. Moreover, in reading Friedlander’s article, it reports on the substantial fuel savings experience of Auto-Pilot. Amazing that DoTs have never championed the use of such devices. I have yet to see a sign encourage the use of cruise
control o help save the planet and calm traffic flow. Also amazing that NHTSA hasn’t encouraged the placement of a light or other indicator to allow surrounding driver to realize that the car is being controlled with the objective of maintaining constant
speed as opposed to human driver speed behavior which seems to usually be “constant depression of the gas pedal” (which along the Pennsylvania Turnpike drives me bananas. Is this just too obvious and simple “connected vehicle technology” that enable substantive
information about what lies ahead to be readily transmitted to everyone just like turn signals? Alain
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Trips and Counting
G. Brulte, Dec. 5, “This week in the autonomy economy, The Road to Autonomy Index returned 4.21%, Waymo
announced they completed over 700,000 autonomous rides in 2023 and the California Department of Motor Vehicles accused Tesla of falsely advertising “Full Self-Driving”.
The market for autonomy has changed a lot in 2023, some for the better and some for the worse. While the market has changed,
there has been one consistency in the robo-taxi business, Waymo. Waymo continues to operate a successful robo-taxi business in multiple cities at a high-level.
With Waymo on track to surpass 1 million autonomous rides a year, the attention now turns to the business of Waymo. It’s a topic
that we are focused on for 2024 and we are looking for Alphabet to offer more guidance in the coming quarters about the Waymo business.….”
Read More Hmmmm… Grayson, all excellent! 700,000 is more than a few rides and is an excellent start,
but if they continue to focus on giving rides to people who already have just as good, if not better, ways to get a ride, then, as
Shumpeter tells me and you, good luck at surviving as part of Alpha-bet or any Other-bet. Even at a revenue of $100/ride that’s only $70M in revenue to date achieved at a sunk cost of ~ $7B? over the past ~10years?
To reach a survival rate of 10% annual return to justify a sunk $7B requires a 10x increase in $100/ride customers per year, assuming costs are $0.00 cost/ride. 7M rides/year equates
to about 20,000 rides per day. The good news is… there may well exist today that many $100/ride customers. However, the bad news is… at that price, Waymo has to compete with Limo/taxi/Uber/Lyft. Here is a germane anecdote: Elizabeth and I met a guy over
lunch while skiing at Park City last week. Turns out he lives in Phoenix, so, naturally, we asked about his experience with Waymo. He rattled off the usual attention-grabbing, myopic and negative headlines that the media delight in printing (NYT, I am looking
at you, in particular). We pressed on and asked if he had ever taken a ride himself. “No,” he said, flatly, “I don’t need to.” Exactly. He owns his own vehicle and has multiple alternatives to getting around: a $100/ride customer. My guess is that Waymo will
be lucky to capture their 20% of similar customers. Thus, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) has to be ~100,000 rides/day for them to justify their existence at a $0.00 cost/ride.
The really bad news is … 20,000 $100RidesPerDay are scattered across the USA so diffusely, that there is no opportunity for any productivity in the management of expensive vehicles
to achieve any economies of scale to operate at anywhere near $0.00 cost/ride.
Shall we delve into the business case at its most basic level? Let’s go:
In order to have the capital cost of a Waymo car be small on a per-ride basis, it needs to be very productive and serve many rides per day. Assuming there are at most 300 average days
of operation per year, a 6% annual interest rate converts to roughly a .002% daily rate, thus a $1K item purchased at a 6% annual rate costs 60$/year and $0.20/average-300-day-year. Thus a $100k vehicles cost all by itself about $20/day. Should that cost
be $200k/vehicle, then its bare bones cost $40/day. One clearly sees that to get to anywhere near $0.00 costs, one needs vehicle productivities in rides/day to be more than single digits and approach double digits per day; else, just the cost of the vehicle
makes the whole exercise untenable. Unfortunately, it is very unlikely that there exists sufficient density in sufficient markets to serve 20,000 rides/day with a fleet no larger than 2,000 vehicles scattered across the country. Thus, the cost to serve
those few customers can’t be close to $0.00 and likely can’t be under $10/ride and could easily become greater than $100/ride and voiding any business case for the pursuit of this market.
OK, so if the $100/ride market is not this technology’s sweet spot, what is? I’ll claim it is the $5/ride market. Why? because essentially all of the 1B rides per day market is
attractive to a $5/ride cost if the level-of-service is good enough even to those who today give themselves a ride. Capturing 10% simply by virtue of affordability, given the technology’s demand-responsiveness, is likely to be 10% or more of the total daily
rides market, or 100M/rides per day. At this price Waymo’s level-of-service would be
Shumpeter disruptive and have essentially no competition. The affordable, demand responsive markets are sufficiently spatially concentrated such that Waymo could readily serve them at vehicle productivities that approach 100 rides/vehicle-day, thus enabling
a cost per vehicle to be essentially zero, serving trip lengths that are sufficiently short that operating costs per vehicles scale to be extremely inexpensive, summing to a cost per ride that is substantially less than $5/ride revenue and likely less than
$3/ride, thus yielding a profit margin of $2/ride. Serving 100M of those rides per day yield profits of $200M/day equating to ~ $6B/year. This is now close to the survival need of $7B/year profit.
Expanding to more markets so as to reach 20% of the daily rides market, one can imagine profits growing to greater than $10B/year and generating auxiliary values that could make driverless
mobility exceedingly profitable, while delivering enormous societal value to the many who never before had to the quality-of-life enhancements of high-quality, affordable mobility.
While not necessarily achieving “moon shot” status by returning 10x over 10 years in corporate profitability, its value could readily contribute more than 1x profitability over many
more than 10 years. Plus, adding its contribution to the improvement of society does allow driverless focused on those that really need a ride to realistically achieve “moon shot” status, but only if it decides to focus on $5/ride market rather than the $100/ride
market. Class dismissed. J Alain
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Police: Men were racing
at 100 mph before crash that killed Serra Catholic student
Reuters, Dec. 5, “… Data collected from the Volkswagen indicated that it was traveling at 104 mph at 100% throttle 3½ seconds
before the crash, according to the complaint. Two seconds before impact, it was still at full throttle and traveling 107 mph. A half-second before impact, the brakes were applied for the first time. The Volkswagen was going 103 mph. ….”
Read More Hmmmm…. Since VW records
precise data indicating a car is traveling at 104 mph and knows that the car is traveling on a public road in the USA and knows that no public road in the USA allows travel at a speed anywhere near that fast,
WHY does VW enable that car to travel that fast? and WHY does NHTSA not issue a safety recall to VW to restrict its cars from being able to travel that fast on a public road in the USA since its cars know that they are being misused by its drivers?
And, while we’re at it, WHERE is the media outrage at human misbehavior behind the wheel? (Unfortunately, I know the answers to those rhetorical questions.) Alain
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The AV industry sends an SOS to Pete Buttigieg
Andrew Hawkins, Dec. 13, “…
Update December 13th 1:03PM ET: After this story published, a spokesperson for USDOT sent a statement reacting to the letter.
“When developed and deployed with the appropriate safeguards and consideration of broader societal impacts, Automated Driving Systems
have the potential to lead to
better outcomes across the transportation system,” the spokesperson said. “However, these outcomes are
not intrinsic or inherent to the technology. The net impacts – on safety, mobility, emissions, workforce and otherwise – will be the result of engineering, deployment, and policy choices. This is why
the Department’s approach centers on its core policy priorities and the position that safety is fundamental to unlocking the technology’s
potential for broader positive impact. … “
Read More Hmmmm…. What???? I disagree! The potential of “better
outcomes” is intrinsic and inherent to the technology (in this case, using driverless mobility to give rides to people) because driverless technology enables an affordable, high level-of-service
(24/7 on-demand) to the many who today can’t give themselves a ride and can’t be well served by today’s conventional public transit systems; else “The Department” would not be leaving them behind.
The brutal reality is: of the billion or so daily person trips throughout the US each day, only about 50% are well served by people giving themselves a ride in their own private car, including
a very few are biking themselves or using their legs to walk more than 10 minutes or so to go somewhere at some time.
About 3% are getting a ride from affordable public transit or paying the substantial cost of being chauffeured by Limo/taxi/Uber/Lift.
The rest, ~47%, getting a ride in a car from someone when they need to get someplace at the time they need to go or are completely foregoing the benefit of going because the benefit of getting
there is completely overwhelmed by the cost of getting there. Consequently, they decide to just stay home.
Not included in this 100% tally are those who simply tag along as accompaniment for a ride. What is counted here are only the people who really want to go someplace for which getting there
substantially improves their life. Those who forego rides because there is no means for which to get there at the time they need to be there, completely forego a substantial improvement in their quality-of-life, ie. “better outcomes”, had a good way for them
to get there been available to them
Again: Automated Driving Systems can affordably deliver a quality-of-service that rivals that enjoyed by the 50% who drive themselves. In other words, the
majority of the 50% who can’t for whatever reason give themselves a ride, yet need a ride, could capture for themselves more of the personal value of getting there had they had available to them an
affordable high-quality way to get there. The “potential broader positive impact” is improved net quality-of-life enjoyed by individuals taking about 500 million person trips every day. That improvement, along with safety, should be at “The Department’s
core policy priority”. Alain
Or..
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The AV industry sends an SOS to Pete Buttigieg
Andrew Hawkins, Dec. 13, “…
Update December 13th 1:03PM ET: After this story published, a spokesperson for USDOT sent a statement reacting to the letter.
“When developed and deployed with the appropriate safeguards and consideration of broader societal impacts, Automated Driving Systems
have the potential to lead to
better outcomes across the transportation system,” the spokesperson said. “However, these outcomes are
not intrinsic or inherent to the technology. The net impacts – on safety, mobility, emissions, workforce and otherwise – will be the result of engineering, deployment, and policy choices. This is why
the Department’s approach centers on its core policy priorities and the position that safety is fundamental to unlocking the technology’s potential for broader positive impact. … “
Read More Hmmmm…. What???? I disagree! The potential of “better
outcomes” is intrinsic and inherent to the technology because it is the technology that enables an affordable higher level-of-service (24/7 on-demand) that cannot be delivered by buses or trains.
Chauffeured mobility can today deliver demand-responsive flexibility comparable to driverless mobility, but not affordably. The required human effort, human time, and more than warranted human salary to deliver that flexible, 24/7 demand responsive service
is affordable to only the very rich. Yes, safety is important, but if the policy framework superimposed to (supposedly) address safety is to require a human chauffeur, then technology’s fundamental opportunity to unlock this extra-ordinary level-of-service
to most everyone will never emerge. Technology’s cost, even if minimal, is unjustifiable when it is purely an add-on to the unscalable human cost of conventional transit systems. And it certainly can’t be justified by some expectation of future safety improvements
on systems that are already safe.
Allow me to explain in more detail, using the concept of “low-hanging fruit”:
If “The Department” is to have an approach with respect to driverless mobility, it must first admit that the role of the technology is to give
more affordable rides to some by replacing labor with technology. What today limits “The Department’s approach” is how expensive it is to give many more good rides while recognizing that about 50%
of people today going someplace at some time by means other than walking, biking or scootering are by getting a ride from someone. And all but 6% of those trips, a whopping 44% or so, are done by someone giving them a ride in a car. In the US, that totals
about a half a billion person trips every day.
“ The Department” has done a great job, with the money that it has available, by giving good affordable rides to those who want to go between the places when “many” want to go at about the
same time. Unfortunately, those situations are few and far between and end up being only about 3% of all person trips on any given day, many of which are served really well; unfortunately, the quality fall-off is steep when it comes to trying to increase
that 3% “low-hanging fruit”. By the end of the 3%, the level-of-service is barely acceptable, and the rest of the 97% of the “fruit” is much farther up the tree and hence beyond reach of conventional transit systems.
Convincing riders to bend further down to become reachable by living in certain places, working in other places, or otherwise changing their behavior for even environmental reasons is a struggle. “The
Department” finds itself at a point where it can’t afford to give more rides because its been so good at allocating its efforts in serving the 3% that each additional ride it tries to give, cost more than the last ride that it gave.
The only way for them to give more rides is to use technology to make it much cheaper for them to give that next ride and thus grow from its 3% base
and reach more proverbial fruit on this rides tree.
And by what means might “The Department” reach that higher fruit? I posit that “the ladder” is
technology that replaces the chauffeur. While some worry that this technology ladder will be built on the erasure of human labor, the reality of all automation in our society’s market place is that it improves the economy to such an extent that the
human labor increases! More people are working today and enjoy a higher standard of living in the world than existed yesterday. This is a true statement since at least the beginning of the industrialized revolution (except during periods of war).
World population has gone up monotonically, as has the world standard of living, all while at first machines, now sensors, computers and actuators, have replaced human laborers. A transition into driverless will thus naturally mean more and better job opportunities.
I acknowledge that dislocation is involved, and that change can be messy, but two things can be true at once (as my wife likes to say): driverless automation has the potential to improve the lives of millions of people over the long term, and that process,
as with all previous similar shifts to automated technology, will have challenging effects on some for the short-term, while also offering new opportunities that will most likely improve their lives. Alain
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Cruise laying off 900 employees, or 24% of its workforce: Read the memo here
H. Field, Dec. 14, “General Motors’ Cruise on Thursday announced internally that it will lay off 900 employees, or 24% of
its workforce, the company confirmed to CNBC.
The layoffs, which primarily affected commercial operations and related corporate functions, are the latest turmoil for the robotaxi startup and come one day after Cruise dismissed
nine “key leaders” for the company’s response to an Oct. 2 accident in which a pedestrian was dragged 20 feet by a Cruise self-driving car after being struck by another vehicle.
The company had 3,800 employees before Thursday’s cuts, which also follow a round of contractor layoffs at Cruise last month. Affected employees will receive paychecks
until Feb. 12 and at least an additional eight weeks of pay, plus severance based on tenure. …”
Read More Hmmmm…. Amazing! All because someone @ Cruise chose
to not be completely forthright about a true “corner case” in which their system did everything right, except it failed to properly assess the severity of the accident (as humans sometimes do), was sensitive of causing further harm by continuing to block traffic
(also a human concern AND, I want to point out, think about all the previous media coverage of driverless cars blocking emergency vehicles – here, the car was actively getting out of the way) and being completely clueless about a person being trapped under
the car. A truly learning moment for Cruise and everyone else in the AV industry of an “unknown,” which is now known!
All systems will from now:
What needs to be really learned by everyone is:
Hopefully, by today, the woman has recovered from her injuries and is being more than appropriately compensated, as much as is ever indeed possible.
Also, hopefully, the hit-and-run driver that initiated this incident has been identified and is also appropriately been held accountable. (Have they been found and held accountable?
Why isn’t the SF media aggressively pursuing the culprit of this horrible situation?)
Beyond that, had everyone been completely forthright, none of the rest would have happened. Cruise, by now would have made the necessary improvements, most everyone would be praising
this as a learning experience, and driverless mobility could be giving rides to San Franciscans who really can benefit from the high-quality, affordable rides that these systems can safely deliver.
Unfortunately, GM/Cruise was not sufficiently forthright. Waymo and Cruise didn’t focus their efforts on giving rides to San Franciscans who don’t have access to a high-quality affordable
rides. Waymo and Cruise aren’t viewed as “Life-savers” but rather as annoying selfie opportunities for visitors to San Francisco. Thus, “the way to today” in San Francisco was forged.
Hopefully, Cruise2.0 will learn from this experience by becoming completely transparent, learning from communities as to how they can be most helpful and really focus their efforts
to giving rides to those who really need a ride: “The Real case for Driverless Mobility”. Alain
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Arizona retirees to get free rides in driverless minivans
J. Muller, Dec. 18, ”
Autonomous driving startup May Mobility is launching its first fully driverless service on public roads in Sun City, Arizona, a retirement community northwest of Phoenix….
What's happening: May Mobility, based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, is starting slowly, with just two autonomous
minivans operating without a safety operator in a 4.5-mile service area within Sun City….
Details: Early riders can use May Mobility's app to request a driverless shuttle pickup to and from a variety
of popular stops, including resident complexes, grocery stores, pharmacies and medical centers.
·
The shared, on-demand free service begins Dec. 19.
·
Initially, it will operate Monday through Friday each afternoon.
The big picture: Self-contained retirement communities are an ideal
place to launch autonomous vehicles because the slower, simpler roads are typically easier to master.
·
Plus, there's an unmet need from aging seniors who no longer drive but still want the freedom to go where they want.
What they're saying: Edwin Olson, CEO and co-founder of May Mobility, called the launch "a cornerstone for
our commercial growth and expansion moving forward."
Read More Hmmmm….
Ed: Very nice! Yes, start where it is easy and focus on giving rides to those who most need a ride. Great news. Alain
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Description automatically generated" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_6">
Driverless cars may already be safer than human
drivers
Timothy Lee, August 31, “I learned a lot reading dozens of Waymo and Cruise crash reports...….”
Read More Hmmmm….
While Tim wrote this way before the Cruise crash of October 2, and I just saw it, I place it here as a reminder of the safety scene as reported by Tim, for whom I have an enormous amount of respect. I am trying to track down where he stands today.
See also: “Kyle Vogt exits Cruise, leaving Waymo as the clear robotaxi leader”
and “California suspension is an existential threat to Cruise”… “…
Instead, Cruise’s practice has been to show video footage
to a hand-picked group of reporters over Zoom—and to prohibit those reporters from recording the video or sharing it with others…
This doesn’t surprise me. Last month, I was treated to a similar viewing opportunity while writing about an accusation from
the San Francisco Fire Department that a Cruise vehicle blocked the path of an ambulance trying to take an injured patient to the hospital (the patient died soon after arrival). Rather than sending me video from the incident, a Cruise representative played
it for me using a Zoom screen share—and demanded that I not try to capture the video.
The video did contradict some of the specific claims made by a SFFD memo about the blocked ambulance. At the same time, I found
it striking that Cruise seemed unwilling to clearly acknowledge the obvious: that its vehicles had malfunctioned and blocked traffic at a crash scene for several minutes….”
I fervently agree! Such practices brought down Cruise1.0. Cruise2.0, as well as all other driverless mobility wannabees, must become completely transparent; else, suffer the same fate as other that have
chosen to “cover-up”. Alain
[log in to unmask]" align="left" hspace="12" alt="A colorful circle in a black background
Description automatically generated" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_5">Holiday
Chart #2: Choose your metric wisely
G. Mercer, Dec. 17, “ Those unfortunate enough to hear me speak at automotive events know I have A Problem with
how our industry measures itself. We count units, not dollars: how many cars we sold, whether we’re an OEM or a dealer. Thus a Maserati counts the same as a Mini or a Mitsubishi. Few other industries do this: Walmart doesn’t announce in its earnings reports
that they sold more socks than ever before: they talk revenue. Without dollars we don’t have revenue, and without revenue we don’t have profits, and thus continued existence of the business…”
Read More Hmmmm…. Glenn: So true! Thank you for the reminder. In
the rides business the metric also needs to be passenger revenue, not venture raised or government grant award, each of which comes with grueling strings attached; whereas, revenue from customers is solidly earned in return for the fundamental value of the
product offered in the marketplace. Can’t wait to see some non-zero revenue numbers from anyone in the rides business chasing safety. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
The Psychological Effects of Self-Driving
Cars
M. Wei, Dec. 10, “ … .
New research suggests that people who enjoy driving or have a mistrust of
AI are least likely to relinquish driving to autonomous vehicles. The group that
is most likely to adopt self-driving cars are those who expect it to be an enjoyable and convenient experience. There are additional safety issues, such as the fact that people feel safer and prefer when they are able to take over control of the vehicle if
it malfunctions. …”
Read More Hmmmm….
The reference studies are good ones; unfortunately, out of necessity they are each limited in scope of both the people represented and the technology they presume to document a psychological effect.
Psychological factors affecting potential users’ intention to use autonomous vehicles is actually
a very good paper referencing the incredibly complex psychological aspects of human intention. It clearly states bounds of its detailed statistical analysis and its results, but makes no attempt to provide a foundation for extending its findings to a broader
community of individuals or situations other than possibly implying that they are a representative sample the population and the situation at large. It sampled “college students” reaction to a nebulous description of the whole list of NHTSA/SAE “Levels”
of AVs. Nice modeling, survey and data analysis; however, implications on a broader set of the population or a specific aspect of AVs is a real stretch.
Using
the UTAUT2 model to explain public acceptance of conditionally automated (L3) cars: A questionnaire study among 9,118 car drivers from eight European countries is also a very good one and is to be commended for clearly stating its scope in its title and
appropriately leaves it to the individual as to the extent its findings are relevant to the reader’s objectives.
Physiological measurements in social acceptance of self-driving technologies is also interesting but as it clearly states “… These preliminary findings reinforced
our initial hypothesis that passenger experience in human and machine navigated conditions entail different physiological and psychological correlates, and those differences are accessible using state of the art in-world measurements….” The paper is more
about differences in eye tracking measurements in different situations of “Level 2” type AV where one has the opportunity to take over the driving task and presumably be able to intervene to “save the day”. . Not tested were psychological differences between
being given a ride by a human rather than a computer a computer, where in both cases one is being given a ride with no opportunity to intervene.
Unfortunately, M. Wei chooses to broadly groups and generalize these good findings without any justification. As much as I appreciate the work that went into these
studies, I am still begging researchers to interview those who need a ride; those who do not own a car, cannot drive, and/or are not well-served by public transportation, cannot ride a bike, etc. Alain
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Description automatically generated" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_4">Tesla
Fights Back Against Media, China Sales Updates, Cybertruck
R. Mauer, Dec. 12, “➤
Tesla pushes back on Autopilot report from the Washington Post ➤
November CPI ➤ China sales updates
➤ Whistleblower adds to prior
claims ➤ Early Cybertruck owner
shares thoughts ➤ Tesla expands
to new country ➤ Tesla shares
Megapack uptime ➤ Panasonic announces
Sila partnership”
Read More Hmmmm…. Go get ’em, Rob! Who
owns the Washington Post? No bias there! 😊 Alain
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Bull captured after delaying
NJ Transit service at Newark Penn Station
N. Caloway, Dec.14, “There's new information on a steer that got loose in New Jersey and made its way into Newark Penn Station
Thursday. …
The animal is now safely in custody.
Witnesses at Newark Penn Station had to steer clear as the 600-700 pound animal prepared for a morning commute. ….”
Read More Hmmmm….
In Jersey, we don’t expect NJ Transit to be perfect. How can we, given all of the unknows that we deal with every day. I’m certain NJ Transit never envisioned this challenge. But, they’ve learned and will move forward without public outcry that the train
was delayed and without demands that the Executive Director resign. We need the good rides that NJT gives us, even though they aren’t perfect. Alain
Finally, it’s time to bring back the beloved
C’mon, Man! Section:
[log in to unmask]" alt="A logo with a letter m
Description automatically generated"> Netflix's
'Leave the World Behind' takes a swipe at Tesla
S. Connellan, Dec. 8, “Will the end of the world as we know it include a "Night of the Living Cars"? Netflix's Leave
the World Behind makes the case for it, taking a giant swipe at Elon Musk's Tesla along the way….” …”
Read More Hmmmm…. What??? Looks like free product placement
to me. J Everyone has seen real pileups of cars
with humans driving into fog. L Alain
[log in to unmask]">
U.S. sugar beet farmers pioneer autonomous transport from field to factory
Staff, Dec. 8, “ …
How it Works
o
Utilizing Kratos Defense technology, the system operates on a slave-follower model,
where a manned truck leads and another truck autonomously follows its movements…”
Read More Hmmmm….
Putting aside the deeply problematic language in this sentence, what exactly is “pioneering” here?
RR.AI and others have been doing this for years. Alain
*****
[log in to unmask]">
6th SmartDrivingCar
Summit
May 29 (evening) ->
May 31, 2024
Princeton, NJ
********************
Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 348 /
PodCast 348 w/ Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Dec. 8,
“What is the real business for Waymo at Alphabet/Google? Michael Sena, publisher of The Dispatcher and co-author of The Real Case of Driverless Mobility joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Cruise, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
0:46 The real business for Waymo
49:00 Reuters reports AV Industry Association is asking Department of Transportation for help
55:00 NHTSA ..a debate over its role
1:03:34 Princeton fatal accident lesson
1:06:30 Rail service from Scranton to NYC may be back on track
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 347 /
PodCast 347 w/
Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Nov. 29,
“With GM Cruise "substantially" cutting spending on Cruise autonomous mobility, should GM turn the keys over to someone else? What is Google's real business with Waymo? The Dispatcher Publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain
Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Tesla's big truck week and troubles in Sweden, the upcoming book, The Real Case for Driverless Mobility...and more!
0:00 open
1:13 GM cutting Cruise spending
7:09 What is Google's Waymo business really about?
30:00 Tesla's big truck event and troubles in Sweden
42:24 The Real Case for Driverless Mobility book coming soon
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 346 /
PodCast 346 w/
Cyrus Farivar Forbes senior staff writer
F. Fishkin, Nov. 21,
“With the two co-founders having resigned, where does GM's Cruise go from here? GM CEO Mary Barra spoke to employees Monday. Forbes Senior Staff Writer
Cyrus Farivar has had a listen and written about it. He joins Alain and Fred on episode 346 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus we add thoughts from The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena. Tune in and subscribe.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
345 The second launch of Starship
Fishkin, Nov. 18, “With a group of his students on hand from the South Padre Island
vantage point, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser joins Fred Fishkin to witness the second launch of Starship by SpaceX. Tune in and subscribe!”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
344 from StarShip#2 Launch Site
Fishkin, Nov. 17, “It's a special edition of Smart Driving Cars. A preview of
the planned weekend launch of Starship. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser chats with co-host Fred Fishkin from Starbase in Boca Chica. Compared with autonomous vehicles... he says this is easy!
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 343 /
PodCast 343 w/
Cyrus Farivar Forbes senior staff writer
F. Fishkin, Nov. 9,
“So much Cruise news and not much of it good. Where do robotaxi's go from here? Forbes senior staff writer Cyrus Farivar joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus Waymo, Britain's Automated Vehicles Bill,
Geely's Zeekr and more. Tune in and subscribe.
0:00 open
0:30 so much Cruise news with Forbes Sr. Staff Writer Cyrus Farivar
22:36 Where does Cruise go from here
40:36 Waymo to bring AVs for testing to Buffalo
41:40 Britain's new Automated Vehicles Bill.. liability issue discussion
47:35 Geely's Zeekr public paperwork for IPO
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
342 / PodCast
342 w/Michael
Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Nov. 3, “With "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena looking at The
Business of Transport Systems and whether Tesla or Toyota will be first to twenty million, episode 342 of Smart Driving Cars offers in depth insights. Michael joins Alain and Fred for that plus Geely, Waymo, Uber and more.
0:00 open
0:35 The
Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena on transport options on his way to go fishing in Labrador
2:44 The
Business of Transport Systems… Tesla and everyone else
22:40 Getting
to twenty million first… Tesla or Toyota?
32:00 Thoughts
on the China Export Boom
32:38 Zeeker
wants to be provider of Waymo autonomous vehicles…Alain says no.
44:00 Uber
and Lyft agree to pay combined 328 million dollars in NY State case for withholding money from drivers.
1:01:45 Tesla
won first U.S. autopilot trial involving fatal crash
1:07:50 CivicPlus
report on U.S. drivers killing 20 pedestrians per day
1:11:25 AVs
and “The Real Case for Driverless Mobility”(book from Michael and Alain coming soon)
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 341 / PodCast
341 w/Russ
Mitchell, Correspondent LA Times
F. Fishkin, Oct. 30, “In the wake of an early October incident and action by the
state of California, GM's Cruise has suspended robotaxi services. Where does it go from here? LA Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Alain and Fred to discuss. Plus, Waymo cracking down on misbehaving riders and partners with Uber in Phoenix...and more. Tune
in and subscribe. 0:00 open
0:42 Discussion
with Russ Mitchell of LA Times of Cruise suspension of autonomous robotaxi services
8:36 What
is needed to ensure similar incident isn’t repeated and where industry goes from here
19:20 Forbes
online piece from Steven Acquino on Ableism issue not being taken into account
29:30 Teamsters
and Rideshare Drivers United working together to put guardrails on autonomous vehicles
31:30 Waymo
advises riders of cleaning fees if real messes are left behind
37:28 Waymo
autonomous vehicles now available to Uber customers in
Phoenix
39:30 Alain
on how financial model can work for autonomous mobility
49:35 NY
Times piece on interactive map of NYC neighborhoods
52:10 Reminder
that new book from Alain and Michael Sena is on the way.. The Real Case for Driverless Mobility
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 340 / PodCast
340 w/ Michael Sena, Dispatch Central – November 2023.. Critical Materials as Competitive Weapons
F. Fishkin, Oct. 19, “What has China done to Swedish EV battery maker Northvolt
AB? "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena joins Alain and Fred for episode 340 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus...robotaxi travails in San Francisco, Honda plans robotaxis in Tokyo with GM and Cruise, Amazon delivering drugs by drone, Xpeng, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
1:15 upcoming
book The Real Case for Driverless Mobility
3:10 Critical
materials as competitive weapons
7:24 Sweden
cuts power to first electric road
21:48 Back
on the elevator
24:09 Funding
public transport isn’t working
32:00 Michael
looks at robotaxi travails in San Francisco
46:25 Honda
will start 2026 robotaxi service with GM Cruise and Origin vehicle
54:30 Amazon
announces first drone deliveries of prescription drugs
1:02:49 Tesla
earnings disappoint investors
1:14:20 Will
Xpeng beat out Waymo and Cruise in robotaxis?
1:17:58 Smart
Driving Cars Summit returns in 2024
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 339 / PodCast
339 driverless communication, Gates invests, Tesla battery production
F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, “Driverless car communication with pedestrians? On episode
339 of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin chat about a report in The Verge on how Waymo is doing it. Plus Bill Gates invests in Glydways, Tesla battery production breakthrough, Model Y ridesharing in Tampa & more. Tune
in and subscribe!
0:00 open
0:34 Princeton
Scholars discussion on Israel and Gaza link in newsletter
1:56 The
Verge report on How Will Driverless Cars Talk to Pedestrians-Waymo Has a Few Ideas.
4:42 Glydways
gets investment from Bill Gates for electric robotaxis using dedicated lanes
13:09 Tesla
officially releases API documentation for third party apps
15:15 Tesla
Model Y vehicles being used by DASH in Tampa for affordable ridesharing service
19:55 Tesla
breakthrough in battery cell production at Gigafactory Texas
26:27 Upcoming
Podcar City Conference in San Jose
27:56 Publication
coming soon for new book: The Real Case for Driverless Mobility by Alain Kornhauser and Michael Sena…and planning underway for 2024 Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 338 / PodCast
338 Waymo, Costs of Car Ownership, Tesla, Lyft and more
F. Fishkin, Oct. 10, “What
was Waymo thinking with a post about Waymo One and first dates? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser on that plus the costs of car ownership, Tesla, Lyft, Zeeker and more. Join Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 338 of Smart Driving Cars.
0:00 open
0:30 Middle
East and Princeton Professor and former ambassador Daniel Kurtzer's comments.
3:16 Waymo
post on Waymo One-Ideal for first dates
5:46 How
the costs of car ownership add up
8:28 Tesla
Cybertruck tows SpaceX Raptor
10:05 Why
Electric Cars failed 100 years ago
12:20 Elektrek
tests Waymo in SF
16:50 Lyft
CEO-Big tech made America lonely
19:43 Vault
Robotics van to door delivery
23:05 Waymo
Zeeker
25:30 Tesla
autopilot fatal crash in Florida
36:10 Waymo
expands service in SF
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 337 / PodCast
337 Driveless Cars a Tough Sell?
F. Fishkin, Oct. 2, “Driverless
cars a tough sell? Not to people who need mobility. That's Alain's response to a piece in The Atlantic. Plus Mercedes Drive Pilot, Uber plays nice with taxi industry, Teamsters oppose Cruise Origin, Tesla, Microsoft and May Mobility. And Alain shares
his IATR presentation- Modernizing the Giving of Rides.
0:00 open
0:41 The
Atlantic headline.. Why Driverless Cars are a Tough Sell
8:03 Forbes
report.. Mercedes Benz Drive Pilot: The Self Driving Car Has (sort of) Arrived 9:40 The
Verge report: How Uber learned to Stop Fighting and Play Nice With Taxis
13:45
Teamster Union opposing exemption for building of Cruise Origin
18:50
Tesla missed third quarter delivery estimates..but…
20:50 Microsoft
announces new AI companion called CoPilot…umm…
23:13 May
Mobility announces software release focused on rider only operations
30:13 Alain
talks about his presentation at the IATR Conference in Arizona
41:34 Alain’s
IATR presentation slides and more
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 336 / PodCast
336 w Prof.
Dan Sperling, UC Davis
F. Fishkin,
Sept. 26, “With the swirling controversies surrounding robotaxis in San Francisco and beyond, some words of caution from Daniel Sperling. The University of California, Davis, founding Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies joins us for episode
336 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Cruise, Waymo, Governor Newsome's climate lawsuit against oil, Tesla's Optimus robot and more.
0:00 open
0:45 Daniel
Sperling , UC Davis, on his opinion piece for The Hill. “ Don’t Fall Prey to the Current Panic Over Automated Vehicles.
6:30 Alain’s
viewpoint along similar lines
13:33 A
business model focused on giving rides is needed
20:00 Sperling
says support for public transit is an obstacle
22:47 Policy
makers have an opportunity that they aren’t moving on
28:45 Ride
sharing has fallen by the wayside
32:45 The
Drive reports on robotaxi opposition in Austin while NPR piece is headlined Horseless Carriages Were Once a Lot Like Driverless Cars. What Can History Teach Us?
38:37 Tesla
has data not only on their crashes, but their near misses as well
44:00 Gov.
Newsome’s suit against oil companies 47:45 Newsome
has also vetoed bill that would have required safety drivers in automated trucks for at least five years.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 335 / PodCast
335 w Ariel Wolf, Venable Autonomous & Connected Mobility
F. Fishkin,
Sept. 20, “How long will NHTSA take to approve the Cruise Origin exemption to build without a steering wheel or pedals? Fred Fishkin chats with the acting NHTSA administrator and co-host Alain Kornhauser and guest Ariel Wolf, who heads Venable's Autonomous
and Connected Mobility practice offer insights. Plus Cathie Wood, Tesla, SpaceX and more. 0:00 open
0:42 Ariel
Wolf on Venable’s autonomous and mobility practice
2:37 Techstination
interview excerpts with NHTSA acting administrator on Cruise Origin
4:02 discussion
of the approval practice with Alain, Ariel and Fred
16:16 Cruise
has announced wheel chair accessible version as well
27:17 SF
Fire Chief statement that Cruise autonomous vehicle was not directly responsible for the death of a pedestrian
35:00 Cruise
CEO says backlash has been sensationalized
41:36 Allegations
against companies making mobility safer are concerning
49:40 Cathie
Wood says when it comes to self driving taxis ..it’s a winner take most market for Tesla
51:42 A
go ahead for Cruise Origin could always be corrected if need be.
53:10 Legal
changes needed and are being worked on
54:16 Rob
Mauer at Tesla Daily had interview with Musk biographer Walter Isaacson”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 334 / PodCast
334 Waymo autonomous vehicles safer than
humans
F. Fishkin,
Sept. 12, “Waymo and big re-insurer Swiss Re say Waymo's autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers. Tesla's Dojo supercomputer sends shares higher. Cruise Origin on verge of getting okay. No steering wheels or pedals. Episode 334 of Smart Driving Cars
with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
0:30 Waymo
Swiss Re research shows Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers
10:47 Tesla
shares jump after Morga Stanley analysts see Dojo supercomputer value
13:15 James
Douma explanation of FSD included in newsletter
23:00 And
Tesla Daily Rob Mauer highlights as well
23:30 GM
Cruise near approval from NHTSA for Origin vehicle without steering wheel or pedals.
28:00 California
bill requiring drivers in driverless trucks sent to governor 31:00 SpaceX
Starbase readies Starship 25
35:20 Just
back from Florida AV conference
36:50 Alain
impressed with EVTOL tech at Florida conference
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 333 / PodCast
333 The Dispatcher w/Michael Sena & Tampa-Moves Simulation w/Bryce Rasmussen’25
F. Fishkin, Aug. 30, “The Need for Driverless Vehicle Standards is
the lead as The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us from Sweden for the latest Smart Driving Cars. More highlights from episode 333.. NHTSA, E-Fuels, China, Elon Musk demos the latest FSD and Bryce Rasmussen, Princeton '25, shows the results demo of
the Interactive Person Trip Visualization tool from Princeton. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin...and subscribe!
0:00 open
1:17 The
Dispatcher..Standards for Driverless Vehicles
10:39 Recommendations
for Standards
21:50 The
Dispatcher.. Rudderless at NHTSA
28:45 The
Dispatcher… Electrofuels or E-Fuels
32:00 The
Dispatcher.. China and Coal
36:08 Elon
Musk live streams latest FSD Beta
46:15 Bryce
Rasmussen, Princeton ’25, demos animation of Interactive person trip visualization
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 332 / PodCast
332 Right Market w/ Bryce Rasmussen’24
F. Fishkin, Aug. 24, “How can communities plan for autonomous mobility systems? There's a new Interactive Person Trip Visualization developed at Princeton University and Bryce Rasmussen, class of '25, shows us how it works. Episode 332 of Smart Driving
Cars with Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin. Plus..Cruise, Waymo, San Francisco, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
0:41 Creation
of Interactive Person Trip Visualization in Tampa with Bryce Rasmussen, Princeton class of ‘25
11:20 NY
Times has three reporters ride in Waymo robotaxis
16:42 Politico
reports Gavin Newsom sides with the robots in autonomous vehicle debate
20:43 Cruise
bringing robotaxis to Raleigh
22:40 Beginning
October 1 Pinellas’ SunRunner will no longer be free to ride. Why?
27:50 Results
and demo of Interactive Person Trip Visualization in Tampa with Bryce Rasmussen
56:00 Visualization
tool will be demonstrated at upcoming Florida AV conference and will become available to all
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 331 / PodCast
331 Wrong Market
F. Fishkin, Aug. 21, Following a crash with an emergency vehicle and
a request from the California Department of Motor Vehicles, GM Cruise cuts San Francisco robotaxi fleet in half. What Princeton's Alain Kornhauser suggests they should do next, plus Cruise losses, automated vehicle legal issues, Tesla and more. Tune in to
Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest.
0:00 open
0:24 Next
Big Future piece on apparent 2 billion dollar GM Cruise loss this year
9:20 Cruise
agrees to cut robotaxi fleet in half in San Francisco. Alain says should end service there to focus elsewhere
17:00 Alain’s
response to those who point to the robotaxi collision with an emergency vehicle
20:00 The
Verge has a report headlined Robotaxis are Driving on Thin Ice
22:00 GM
Authority says Cruise is now testing in Charlotte
28:00 A
diversion onto The Dinky
33:11 Juris
report spotlighting potential criminal liability for operation of automated vehicles
36:27 Tip
of the hat once again to Tesla Daily
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 330 / PodCast
330
CPUC decision
F. Fishkin, Aug. 12, “Robotaxi service in San Francisco gets the green
light from the California PUC. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser outlines his testimony, where services go from here and more on episode 330 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...the big UPS contract, Tesla and the continuing efforts develop
automatic emergency braking that works.
0:00 open
0:22 California
PUC okays around the clock robotaxi service in San Francisco
14:50 Alain
hearing statement to California PUC in support of the deployment
20:23 More
on the benefits of safe, affordable, driverless mobility and thoughts on how best to deploy
29:00 Robotaxi
operators should be able to deny service to riders who misbehave
34:24 Coverage
of the robotaxi issues needs to change. Too much clickbait.
41:00 Ride
hailing model not the right focus
45:07 New
UPS contract has created lots of demand for jobs there….but…
48:30 Reports
and video of Tesla vehicles on autopilot crashing into police and the automatic emergency braking issue
1:02:27 How
can automatic emergency braking be improved?
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 329 / PodCast
329 w/FL Senator Jeff Brandes & DASH’s Shuan Drinkard
F. Fishkin, Aug. 7, “Tampa Downtown Partnership head Shaun Drinkard and Florida Policy Project Founder Jeff Brandes join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the new Tampa DASH service that will provide affordable mobility
with a Tesla fleet of vehicles. Plus a preview of the Florida AV Summit, the latest headlines on Cruise, Waymo, Tesla, Luminar, NuView and
more. Smart Driving Cars 329!
0:00 open
0:25 Tampa
to use Tesla Model Ys for new mobility service. Shaun Drinkard Tampa Downtown Partnership.
15:06 former
Florida State Senator Jeff Brandes on the Tampa DASH project
18:41 Cathie
Wood speaking at up Florida Automated Vehicles Summit
30:00 WSJ
headline: America’s Most Tech Forward City Has Doubts About Self Driving Cars
32:47 Slate
headline: As Cruise Expands to Los Angeles, Self Driving’s Breakout Moment Has Arrived
33:29 Brandes
on what AV activities are going on now in Florida
36:40 Cruise
reaches union agreement with electrical and janitorial workers in San Francisco
37:25 Luminar
AI push
40:02 NuView
plans space based LiDAR to map earth in 3D
40:35 On
the Tesla Front.. Highland production, Pepsi Tesla Semis and Texas Tesla customers are being offered unlimited overnight charging for 25 dollars a mon”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 328 / PodCast
328 w/ Wm. Cariss, Holman Growth Ventures +
Fishkin, Aug.
3, “On episode 328 of Smart Driving Cars, we're at the Holman Emerge conference in NJ focused on start-ups and the future of driving, dealerships and mobility. Guests include Holman CEO Carl Ortell, President Chris Conroy, Homan Growth Ventures CEO Bill Cariss
and Spiffy founder Scott Wingo.
0:00 open
0:50 Overview
of Holman
1:50 Fleet
business expanding in robots, etc.
3:00 role
of autonomy and investment in autonomous trucking firm, Gatik
5:44 future
of cars, driving, dealerships
9:00 Types
of start-ups that are of interest
10:20 Decision
to go outside company to find worthwhile technology
11:30 upcoming
book from Alain and Michael Sena focused on new mobility
14:00 Continuing
reinvention necessary
15:30 Scott
Wingo, CEO of Spiffy, app-based mobile auto repair and washing
17:00 What
is Spiffy doing that competitors aren’t
19:50 Growth
of service area and franchising
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 327 / PodCast
327 Han’s the Best!
F. Fishkin, July 29, “A SF Taxi Alliance Board member takes a Waymo
ride and says he felt extra safe! That's on top on episode 327 of Smart Driving Cars. That plus the latest from Cruise, Tesla, Uber, SpaceX and more. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest in autonomous mobility.
0:00 open
0:37 SF
Standard takes Taxi Worker’s Alliance Board member for Waymo ride and he says he felt “extra safe”
09:40 Waymo
focusing efforts on ride hailing
20:00 Cruise
expanding to Nashville and more
21:10 Wired
report on legal saga of Uber fatal crash coming to end
28:45 TorqueNews
report on Musk confirming Tesla FSD v12 Alpha using new single AI model
33:15 SpaceX
Falcon Heavy launch 36:25 GM
launching Hands Free Eyes On education program
39:56 The
Verge reports driverless car legislation still stuck in neutral
49:03 Alain
adds one more pitch for new mobility in NJ”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 326 / PodCast
326 San Francisco robotaxis gain support from disability advocates
F. Fishkin, July 24, “Some disability advocates are voicing support for expanded robotaxis in San Francisco, a SF paper pits Uber against Waymo in a race, Cruise begins testing in Miami, Tesla begins production of DOJO supercomputer and talks to a major
automaker about licensing Full Self Driving. That and more on episode 326 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
0:28 Disability
advocates push for robotaxi expansion in San Francisco
8:08 San
Francisco Standard pits Uber against Waymo in race. Clickbait.
12:40 Cruise
begins initial testing for robotaxis in Miami
18:49 NY
Times reports .. Watching for the Bus Stop Gallery
21:19 IATR
Annual Conference in fall will have Waymo as an official sponsor
24:30 John
Deere Moves Further in the Field of Autonomy
25:36 DOT
accepting applications for the Reconnecting Communities and Neighborhoods Program
28:00 Tesla
begins production of DOJO Supercomputer
31:10 Tesla
in discussion to license full self driving to another major automaker
36:20 Washington
Post piece on Tesla owners using steering wheel weights
Link
to previous 301 -> 325 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Link
to previous 276 -> 300 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Link
to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
*****
[log in to unmask]" alt="A black and orange shield
with white text
Description automatically generated">
6th SmartDrivingCar
Summit
May 29 (evening) ->
May 31, 2024
Princeton, NJ
********************
Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 348 /
PodCast 348 w/
Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Dec. 8,
“What is the real business for Waymo at Alphabet/Google? Michael Sena, publisher of The Dispatcher and co-author of The Real Case of Driverless Mobility joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus Cruise, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
0:46 The real business for Waymo
49:00 Reuters reports AV Industry Association is asking Department of Transportation for help
55:00 NHTSA ..a debate over its role
1:03:34 Princeton fatal accident lesson
1:06:30 Rail service from Scranton to NYC may be back on track
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 347 /
PodCast 347 w/
Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Nov. 29,
“With GM Cruise "substantially" cutting spending on Cruise autonomous mobility, should GM turn the keys over to someone else? What is Google's real business with Waymo? The Dispatcher Publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton's Alain
Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...Tesla's big truck week and troubles in Sweden, the upcoming book, The Real Case for Driverless Mobility...and more!
0:00 open
1:13 GM cutting Cruise spending
7:09 What is Google's Waymo business really about?
30:00 Tesla's big truck event and troubles in Sweden
42:24 The Real Case for Driverless Mobility book coming soon
SmartDrivingCars Cars
ZoomCast 346 /
PodCast 346 w/
Cyrus Farivar Forbes senior staff writer
F. Fishkin, Nov. 21,
“With the two co-founders having resigned, where does GM's Cruise go from here? GM CEO Mary Barra spoke to employees Monday. Forbes Senior Staff Writer
Cyrus Farivar has had a listen and written about it. He joins Alain and Fred on episode 346 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus we add thoughts from The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena. Tune in and subscribe.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
345 The second launch of Starship
Fishkin, Nov. 18, “With a group of his students on hand from the South Padre Island
vantage point, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser joins Fred Fishkin to witness the second launch of Starship by SpaceX. Tune in and subscribe!”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
344 from StarShip#2 Launch Site
Fishkin, Nov. 17, “It's a special edition of Smart Driving Cars. A preview of
the planned weekend launch of Starship. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser chats with co-host Fred Fishkin from Starbase in Boca Chica. Compared with autonomous vehicles... he says this is easy!
SmartDrivingCars
ZoomCast 343 /
PodCast 343 w/
Cyrus Farivar Forbes senior staff writer
F. Fishkin, Nov. 9,
“So much Cruise news and not much of it good. Where do robotaxi's go from here? Forbes senior staff writer Cyrus Farivar joins Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus Waymo, Britain's Automated Vehicles Bill,
Geely's Zeekr and more. Tune in and subscribe.
0:00 open
0:30 so much Cruise news with Forbes Sr. Staff Writer Cyrus Farivar
22:36 Where does Cruise go from here
40:36 Waymo to bring AVs for testing to Buffalo
41:40 Britain's new Automated Vehicles Bill.. liability issue discussion
47:35 Geely's Zeekr public paperwork for IPO
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
342 / PodCast
342 w/Michael
Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Nov. 3, “With "The Dispatcher" publisher
Michael Sena looking at The Business of Transport Systems and whether Tesla or Toyota will be first to twenty million, episode 342 of Smart Driving Cars offers in depth insights. Michael joins Alain and Fred for that plus Geely, Waymo, Uber and more.
0:00 open
0:35 The
Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena on transport options on his way to go fishing in Labrador
2:44 The
Business of Transport Systems… Tesla and everyone else
22:40 Getting
to twenty million first… Tesla or Toyota?
32:00 Thoughts
on the China Export Boom
32:38 Zeeker
wants to be provider of Waymo autonomous vehicles…Alain says no.
44:00 Uber
and Lyft agree to pay combined 328 million dollars in NY State case for withholding money from drivers.
1:01:45 Tesla
won first U.S. autopilot trial involving fatal crash
1:07:50 CivicPlus
report on U.S. drivers killing 20 pedestrians per day
1:11:25 AVs
and “The Real Case for Driverless Mobility”(book from Michael and Alain coming soon)
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 341 / PodCast
341 w/Russ
Mitchell, Correspondent LA Times
F. Fishkin, Oct. 30, “In the wake of an early
October incident and action by the state of California, GM's Cruise has suspended robotaxi services. Where does it go from here? LA Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Alain and Fred to discuss. Plus, Waymo cracking down on misbehaving riders and partners with
Uber in Phoenix...and more. Tune in and subscribe. 0:00 open
0:42 Discussion
with Russ Mitchell of LA Times of Cruise suspension of autonomous robotaxi services
8:36 What
is needed to ensure similar incident isn’t repeated and where industry goes from here
19:20 Forbes
online piece from Steven Acquino on Ableism issue not being taken into account
29:30 Teamsters
and Rideshare Drivers United working together to put guardrails on autonomous vehicles
31:30 Waymo
advises riders of cleaning fees if real messes are left behind
37:28 Waymo
autonomous vehicles now available to Uber customers in
Phoenix
39:30 Alain
on how financial model can work for autonomous mobility
49:35 NY
Times piece on interactive map of NYC neighborhoods
52:10 Reminder
that new book from Alain and Michael Sena is on the way.. The Real Case for Driverless Mobility
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 340 / PodCast
340 w/ Michael Sena, Dispatch Central – November 2023.. Critical Materials as Competitive Weapons
F. Fishkin, Oct. 19, “What has China done to
Swedish EV battery maker Northvolt AB? "The Dispatcher" publisher Michael Sena joins Alain and Fred for episode 340 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus...robotaxi travails in San Francisco, Honda plans robotaxis in Tokyo with GM and Cruise, Amazon delivering drugs
by drone, Xpeng, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
1:15 upcoming
book The Real Case for Driverless Mobility
3:10 Critical
materials as competitive weapons
7:24 Sweden
cuts power to first electric road
21:48 Back
on the elevator
24:09 Funding
public transport isn’t working
32:00 Michael
looks at robotaxi travails in San Francisco
46:25 Honda
will start 2026 robotaxi service with GM Cruise and Origin vehicle
54:30 Amazon
announces first drone deliveries of prescription drugs
1:02:49 Tesla
earnings disappoint investors
1:14:20 Will
Xpeng beat out Waymo and Cruise in robotaxis?
1:17:58 Smart
Driving Cars Summit returns in 2024
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 339 / PodCast
339 driverless communication, Gates invests, Tesla battery production
F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, “Driverless car communication
with pedestrians? On episode 339 of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin chat about a report in The Verge on how Waymo is doing it. Plus Bill Gates invests in Glydways, Tesla battery production breakthrough, Model Y ridesharing
in Tampa & more. Tune in and subscribe!
0:00 open
0:34 Princeton
Scholars discussion on Israel and Gaza link in newsletter
1:56 The
Verge report on How Will Driverless Cars Talk to Pedestrians-Waymo Has a Few Ideas.
4:42 Glydways
gets investment from Bill Gates for electric robotaxis using dedicated lanes
13:09 Tesla
officially releases API documentation for third party apps
15:15 Tesla
Model Y vehicles being used by DASH in Tampa for affordable ridesharing service
19:55 Tesla
breakthrough in battery cell production at Gigafactory Texas
26:27 Upcoming
Podcar City Conference in San Jose
27:56 Publication
coming soon for new book: The Real Case for Driverless Mobility by Alain Kornhauser and Michael Sena…and planning underway for 2024 Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 338 / PodCast
338 Waymo, Costs of Car Ownership, Tesla, Lyft and more
F. Fishkin, Oct. 10, “What
was Waymo thinking with a post about Waymo One and first dates? Princeton's Alain Kornhauser on that plus the costs of car ownership, Tesla, Lyft, Zeeker and more. Join Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 338 of Smart Driving Cars.
0:00 open
0:30 Middle
East and Princeton Professor and former ambassador Daniel Kurtzer's comments.
3:16 Waymo
post on Waymo One-Ideal for first dates
5:46 How
the costs of car ownership add up
8:28 Tesla
Cybertruck tows SpaceX Raptor
10:05 Why
Electric Cars failed 100 years ago
12:20 Elektrek
tests Waymo in SF
16:50 Lyft
CEO-Big tech made America lonely
19:43 Vault
Robotics van to door delivery
23:05 Waymo
Zeeker
25:30 Tesla
autopilot fatal crash in Florida
36:10 Waymo
expands service in SF
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 337 / PodCast
337 Driveless Cars a Tough Sell?
F. Fishkin, Oct. 2, “Driverless
cars a tough sell? Not to people who need mobility. That's Alain's response to a piece in The Atlantic. Plus Mercedes Drive Pilot, Uber plays nice with taxi industry, Teamsters oppose Cruise Origin, Tesla, Microsoft and May Mobility. And Alain shares
his IATR presentation- Modernizing the Giving of Rides.
0:00 open
0:41 The
Atlantic headline.. Why Driverless Cars are a Tough Sell
8:03 Forbes
report.. Mercedes Benz Drive Pilot: The Self Driving Car Has (sort of) Arrived 9:40 The
Verge report: How Uber learned to Stop Fighting and Play Nice With Taxis
13:45
Teamster Union opposing exemption for building of Cruise Origin
18:50
Tesla missed third quarter delivery estimates..but…
20:50 Microsoft
announces new AI companion called CoPilot…umm…
23:13 May
Mobility announces software release focused on rider only operations
30:13 Alain
talks about his presentation at the IATR Conference in Arizona
41:34 Alain’s
IATR presentation slides and more
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 336 / PodCast
336 w Prof.
Dan Sperling, UC Davis
F. Fishkin,
Sept. 26, “With the swirling controversies surrounding robotaxis in San Francisco and beyond, some words of caution from Daniel Sperling. The University of California, Davis, founding Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies joins us for episode
336 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Cruise, Waymo, Governor Newsome's climate lawsuit against oil, Tesla's Optimus robot and more.
0:00 open
0:45 Daniel
Sperling , UC Davis, on his opinion piece for The Hill. “ Don’t Fall Prey to the Current Panic Over Automated Vehicles.
6:30 Alain’s
viewpoint along similar lines
13:33 A
business model focused on giving rides is needed
20:00 Sperling
says support for public transit is an obstacle
22:47 Policy
makers have an opportunity that they aren’t moving on
28:45 Ride
sharing has fallen by the wayside
32:45 The
Drive reports on robotaxi opposition in Austin while NPR piece is headlined Horseless Carriages Were Once a Lot Like Driverless Cars. What Can History Teach Us?
38:37 Tesla
has data not only on their crashes, but their near misses as well
44:00 Gov.
Newsome’s suit against oil companies 47:45 Newsome
has also vetoed bill that would have required safety drivers in automated trucks for at least five years.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 335 / PodCast
335 w Ariel Wolf, Venable Autonomous & Connected Mobility
F. Fishkin,
Sept. 20, “How long will NHTSA take to approve the Cruise Origin exemption to build without a steering wheel or pedals? Fred Fishkin chats with the acting NHTSA administrator and co-host Alain Kornhauser and guest Ariel Wolf, who heads Venable's Autonomous
and Connected Mobility practice offer insights. Plus Cathie Wood, Tesla, SpaceX and more. 0:00 open
0:42 Ariel
Wolf on Venable’s autonomous and mobility practice
2:37 Techstination
interview excerpts with NHTSA acting administrator on Cruise Origin
4:02 discussion
of the approval practice with Alain, Ariel and Fred
16:16 Cruise
has announced wheel chair accessible version as well
27:17 SF
Fire Chief statement that Cruise autonomous vehicle was not directly responsible for the death of a pedestrian
35:00 Cruise
CEO says backlash has been sensationalized
41:36 Allegations
against companies making mobility safer are concerning
49:40 Cathie
Wood says when it comes to self driving taxis ..it’s a winner take most market for Tesla
51:42 A
go ahead for Cruise Origin could always be corrected if need be.
53:10 Legal
changes needed and are being worked on
54:16 Rob
Mauer at Tesla Daily had interview with Musk biographer Walter Isaacson”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 334 / PodCast
334 Waymo autonomous vehicles safer than
humans
F. Fishkin,
Sept. 12, “Waymo and big re-insurer Swiss Re say Waymo's autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers. Tesla's Dojo supercomputer sends shares higher. Cruise Origin on verge of getting okay. No steering wheels or pedals. Episode 334 of Smart Driving Cars
with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
0:30 Waymo
Swiss Re research shows Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers
10:47 Tesla
shares jump after Morga Stanley analysts see Dojo supercomputer value
13:15 James
Douma explanation of FSD included in newsletter
23:00 And
Tesla Daily Rob Mauer highlights as well
23:30 GM
Cruise near approval from NHTSA for Origin vehicle without steering wheel or pedals.
28:00 California
bill requiring drivers in driverless trucks sent to governor 31:00 SpaceX
Starbase readies Starship 25
35:20 Just
back from Florida AV conference
36:50 Alain
impressed with EVTOL tech at Florida conference
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 333 / PodCast
333 The Dispatcher w/Michael Sena & Tampa-Moves Simulation w/Bryce Rasmussen’25
F. Fishkin,
Aug. 30, “The Need for Driverless Vehicle Standards is the lead as The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us from Sweden for the latest Smart Driving Cars. More highlights from episode 333.. NHTSA, E-Fuels, China, Elon Musk demos the latest FSD and Bryce
Rasmussen, Princeton '25, shows the results demo of the Interactive Person Trip Visualization tool from Princeton. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin...and subscribe!
0:00 open
1:17 The
Dispatcher..Standards for Driverless Vehicles
10:39 Recommendations
for Standards
21:50 The
Dispatcher.. Rudderless at NHTSA
28:45 The
Dispatcher… Electrofuels or E-Fuels
32:00 The
Dispatcher.. China and Coal
36:08 Elon
Musk live streams latest FSD Beta
46:15 Bryce
Rasmussen, Princeton ’25, demos animation of Interactive person trip visualization
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 332 / PodCast
332 Right Market w/ Bryce Rasmussen’24
F. Fishkin, Aug. 24, “How can communities plan for autonomous mobility systems? There's a new Interactive Person Trip Visualization developed at Princeton University and Bryce Rasmussen, class of '25, shows us how it works. Episode 332 of Smart Driving
Cars with Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin. Plus..Cruise, Waymo, San Francisco, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
0:41 Creation
of Interactive Person Trip Visualization in Tampa with Bryce Rasmussen, Princeton class of ‘25
11:20 NY
Times has three reporters ride in Waymo robotaxis
16:42 Politico
reports Gavin Newsom sides with the robots in autonomous vehicle debate
20:43 Cruise
bringing robotaxis to Raleigh
22:40 Beginning
October 1 Pinellas’ SunRunner will no longer be free to ride. Why?
27:50 Results
and demo of Interactive Person Trip Visualization in Tampa with Bryce Rasmussen
56:00 Visualization
tool will be demonstrated at upcoming Florida AV conference and will become available to all
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 331 / PodCast
331 Wrong Market
F. Fishkin,
Aug. 21, Following a crash with an emergency vehicle and a request from the California Department of Motor Vehicles, GM Cruise cuts San Francisco robotaxi fleet in half. What Princeton's Alain Kornhauser suggests they should do next, plus Cruise losses, automated
vehicle legal issues, Tesla and more. Tune in to Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest.
0:00 open
0:24 Next
Big Future piece on apparent 2 billion dollar GM Cruise loss this year
9:20 Cruise
agrees to cut robotaxi fleet in half in San Francisco. Alain says should end service there to focus elsewhere
17:00 Alain’s
response to those who point to the robotaxi collision with an emergency vehicle
20:00 The
Verge has a report headlined Robotaxis are Driving on Thin Ice
22:00 GM
Authority says Cruise is now testing in Charlotte
28:00 A
diversion onto The Dinky
33:11 Juris
report spotlighting potential criminal liability for operation of automated vehicles
36:27 Tip
of the hat once again to Tesla Daily
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 330 / PodCast
330
CPUC decision
F. Fishkin,
Aug. 12, “Robotaxi service in San Francisco gets the green light from the California PUC. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser outlines his testimony, where services go from here and more on episode 330 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...the
big UPS contract, Tesla and the continuing efforts develop automatic emergency braking that works.
0:00 open
0:22 California
PUC okays around the clock robotaxi service in San Francisco
14:50 Alain
hearing statement to California PUC in support of the deployment
20:23 More
on the benefits of safe, affordable, driverless mobility and thoughts on how best to deploy
29:00 Robotaxi
operators should be able to deny service to riders who misbehave
34:24 Coverage
of the robotaxi issues needs to change. Too much clickbait.
41:00 Ride
hailing model not the right focus
45:07 New
UPS contract has created lots of demand for jobs there….but…
48:30 Reports
and video of Tesla vehicles on autopilot crashing into police and the automatic emergency braking issue
1:02:27 How
can automatic emergency braking be improved?
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 329 / PodCast
329 w/FL Senator Jeff Brandes & DASH’s Shuan Drinkard
F. Fishkin, Aug. 7, “Tampa Downtown Partnership head Shaun Drinkard and Florida Policy Project Founder Jeff Brandes join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the new Tampa DASH service that will provide affordable mobility
with a Tesla fleet of vehicles. Plus a preview of the Florida AV Summit, the latest headlines on Cruise, Waymo, Tesla, Luminar, NuView and
more. Smart Driving Cars 329!
0:00 open
0:25 Tampa
to use Tesla Model Ys for new mobility service. Shaun Drinkard Tampa Downtown Partnership.
15:06 former
Florida State Senator Jeff Brandes on the Tampa DASH project
18:41 Cathie
Wood speaking at up Florida Automated Vehicles Summit
30:00 WSJ
headline: America’s Most Tech Forward City Has Doubts About Self Driving Cars
32:47 Slate
headline: As Cruise Expands to Los Angeles, Self Driving’s Breakout Moment Has Arrived
33:29 Brandes
on what AV activities are going on now in Florida
36:40 Cruise
reaches union agreement with electrical and janitorial workers in San Francisco
37:25 Luminar
AI push
40:02 NuView
plans space based LiDAR to map earth in 3D
40:35 On
the Tesla Front.. Highland production, Pepsi Tesla Semis and Texas Tesla customers are being offered unlimited overnight charging for 25 dollars a mon”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 328 / PodCast
328 w/ Wm. Cariss, Holman Growth Ventures +
Fishkin,
Aug. 3, “On episode 328 of Smart Driving Cars, we're at the Holman Emerge conference in NJ focused on start-ups and the future of driving, dealerships and mobility. Guests include Holman CEO Carl Ortell, President Chris Conroy, Homan Growth Ventures CEO Bill
Cariss and Spiffy founder Scott Wingo.
0:00 open
0:50 Overview
of Holman
1:50 Fleet
business expanding in robots, etc.
3:00 role
of autonomy and investment in autonomous trucking firm, Gatik
5:44 future
of cars, driving, dealerships
9:00 Types
of start-ups that are of interest
10:20 Decision
to go outside company to find worthwhile technology
11:30 upcoming
book from Alain and Michael Sena focused on new mobility
14:00 Continuing
reinvention necessary
15:30 Scott
Wingo, CEO of Spiffy, app-based mobile auto repair and washing
17:00 What
is Spiffy doing that competitors aren’t
19:50 Growth
of service area and franchising
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 327 / PodCast
327 Han’s the Best!
F. Fishkin,
July 29, “A SF Taxi Alliance Board member takes a Waymo ride and says he felt extra safe! That's on top on episode 327 of Smart Driving Cars. That plus the latest from Cruise, Tesla, Uber, SpaceX and more. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred
Fishkin for the latest in autonomous mobility.
0:00 open
0:37 SF
Standard takes Taxi Worker’s Alliance Board member for Waymo ride and he says he felt “extra safe”
09:40 Waymo
focusing efforts on ride hailing
20:00 Cruise
expanding to Nashville and more
21:10 Wired
report on legal saga of Uber fatal crash coming to end
28:45 TorqueNews
report on Musk confirming Tesla FSD v12 Alpha using new single AI model
33:15 SpaceX
Falcon Heavy launch 36:25 GM
launching Hands Free Eyes On education program
39:56 The
Verge reports driverless car legislation still stuck in neutral
49:03 Alain
adds one more pitch for new mobility in NJ”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 326 / PodCast
326 San Francisco robotaxis gain support from disability advocates
F. Fishkin, July 24, “Some disability advocates are voicing support for expanded robotaxis in San Francisco, a SF paper pits Uber against Waymo in a race, Cruise begins testing in Miami, Tesla begins production of DOJO supercomputer and talks to a major
automaker about licensing Full Self Driving. That and more on episode 326 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
0:28 Disability
advocates push for robotaxi expansion in San Francisco
8:08 San
Francisco Standard pits Uber against Waymo in race. Clickbait.
12:40 Cruise
begins initial testing for robotaxis in Miami
18:49 NY
Times reports .. Watching for the Bus Stop Gallery
21:19 IATR
Annual Conference in fall will have Waymo as an official sponsor
24:30 John
Deere Moves Further in the Field of Autonomy
25:36 DOT
accepting applications for the Reconnecting Communities and Neighborhoods Program
28:00 Tesla
begins production of DOJO Supercomputer
31:10 Tesla
in discussion to license full self driving to another major automaker
36:20 Washington
Post piece on Tesla owners using steering wheel weights
Link
to previous 301 -> 325 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Link
to previous 276 -> 300 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Link
to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
Who Will Operate Driverless Vehicle Services
M. Sena, Dec. 6, “ I cannot say for sure whether the timing of the behave-and-clean up your mess “Mom Reminder” and the UBER announcement were related, but I suspect they were. Together they set in motion a great deal of speculation
in the ether about what it all meant for WAYMO, UBER, and EVERYTHING.
The answer is not 42.…”
Read More
Hmmmm…. Read on and watch
ZoomCast 348. The Waymo deal with Uber is very troubling for many reasons. One, is it even legal with respect to issues of collusion, price fixing? (I’m obviously not a lawyer.) More troubling is that it reinforces the perception that Waymo is focused
on giving rides to people who relish Waymo’s novelty as the attribute that makes it the winning mode in the user’s choice process. Compared to classical 5-star Uber service. It isn’t faster, cleaner, easier, friendlier, … It is just more novel.
For Waymo, that’s fine, because they’ll gain “HumanRevenue (minus their finder’s fee to Uber) while expending RoboOperatingCosts” since Uber, at some point, is going to have to start charging HumanRevenue (LivingWage plus Expenses
and its finder’s fee) in order to remain a viable ride provider using its gig workforce.
It’s an OK deal for Uber and its gig workers because they only lose these customers as long as the novelty shines. Once that wears off, their service level is a decisive winner, thus Waymo basically gets the “one & done” and
Uber gets the repeat customer. The only thing that could upset this apple cart would be if Waymo started to use its substantial RoboOperatingCost advantage (plus the profit margin built into Uber’s finder’s fee that Waymo could keep on its books). Competing
on price, Waymo could easily keep the novelty customers well after the novelty completely wore off while remaining extremely profitable even if their profit margin isn’t quite as big as “HumanRevenue minus RoboCosts”. Such price competition certainly wouldn’t
go well for Uber nor its gig workforce.
What seems really disappointing is that Waymo isn’t focused on the societal benefit of giving rides to people for whom a ride that actually took them from where they are to, where they want to go, when they want to go would substantially
improve their lives because that quality ride is affordable and is simply not available with conventional public transport systems. This market is enormous. It is not only a substantial portion of half of today’s rides, roughly 500 million personTrips per
day, but an unknown number of “latent rides” that aren’t going to be taken today by all the people that couldn’t find a ride and stayed home. Not only is their improved quality of life not realized, but also the stimulation to the economy by having them go
to the places where they wanted to go but couldn’t because they couldn’t get a ride, let alone an affordable ride.
That’s the real market and societal opportunity, which seems to be completely irrelevant to Waymo and most media outlets. Now with Cruise on the ropes, the two entities that can technologically unleash this opportunity are becoming
a pipe dream. We may now need to have to wait for Tesla to get their driverless system to work well enough and be willing to engage and support technically a partner that can profitably deliver safe, affordable, equitable, sustainable high-quality rides to
people who need rides, plus, without compromise, those that today give themselves a ride should they so desire. It’s difficult to remain optimistic. Alain
M. Sena, Nov.26, “IT HAS BEEN a rough couple of months for CRUISE LLC after it reached a high point in August this year. That was when CRUISE, along with WAYMO LLC, received approval from the
CALIFORNIA DIVISION OF MOTOR VEHICLES to operate round-the-clock paid ride-supplying services in the state with their driverless vehicles, that is, with no human primary or back-up driver in the vehicle. CRUISE’s license was for 300 vehicles. Then the wheels
began to come off the cart, figuratively speaking. On Sunday evening, the 19th of November, CRUISE founder and CEO, Kyle Vogt, announced that he was throwing in the towel. Is this the beginning of the end for CRUISE? Or is this just the end of the beginning,
as most of the Pollyannaish opinion pieces on the subject have opined?
Spoiler: It’s not the end for CRUISE, but it should be the end for GM’s skunkworks project with CRUISE, and the start of a more serious approach toward
driverless vehicles by the automobile industry and investors. How it began to unravel.…”
Read More
Hmmmm…. Read on and watch
ZoomCast 347 and let’s start picking up the pieces. Alain
Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt Resigns After Weeks
Of Crisis
C. Farivar, Nov.20, “Cruise CEO and co-founder Kyle Vogt resigned Sunday night less than a month after the struggling robotaxi company lost
its license to operate in California and paused
operations of its autonomous fleet across the country. The subsidiary of General Motors has been widely criticized for an aggressive expansion plan that did not adequately consider safety.…”
Read More
Hmmmm…. Such a shame! How is it that a totally misbehaving hit and run driver begins a chain reaction that so changes the lives of so many innocent by-standers by creating such a bizarre previously unimaginable
situation, when everyone else is trying to do the right thing? We’d better learn as much as possible so that this situation is not repeated ever again.
Some takeaways:
1.
GM without Cruise has a better chance of making substantive progress in addressing today’s safety challenge by not allowing the cars that it sells in its showrooms to even start if the driver is
impaired by drugs or alcohol, or, if lucid, enabled to speed excessively, run red lights or stop signs, or text or otherwise get distracted with Apple CarPlay or other add-on distractions. GM (and their competitors) has had these capabilities for years.
We know why they haven’t made changes to improve safety along these lines: they wouldn’t be able to sell those cars.
2.
This reality tells us that in this democratic society where the customer, who is also the voter, is king, the positive attributes of the car’s conventional technology overwhelmingly outweigh its
safety challenges to such an extent that it is still able to completely dominate today’s rides market, both the ‘give myself a ride’, as well as the ‘give someone else a ride’ markets. It achieved this market dominance even in competition with other mobility
systems whose safety record is substantially better. Unfortunately for the also-rans is that their appeal in giving of rides nets out to be so poor in comparison, that whatever great advantage they might have in safety isn’t sufficient to make them anything
more than a niche player in the ‘giving people rides’ marketplace. That’s what
Joe Shumpeter might try to teach us as we observe the reality of today’s mobility marketplace.
3.
Furthermore, Shumpeter might suggest that for a new technology to become successful disruptive, it needs to have a cost and/or quality advantage that is substantially better that of today’s technology.
In the past, GM’s original technology did it well over the horse and buggy, the electric trolley, and the bus. It was their superior service qualities with comparable safety that enabled them to poach most of the customers of all of the competitors, existing
or imagined, to achieve ultimate market dominance. It was a service disruption while remaining sufficiently safe and
not a safety disruption while offering comparable service. Similarly today, Waymo, Cruise and maybe others in the driverless mobility space
can deliver vastly superior service at comparable safety levels to many who today need a ride. If only they focused their deployment strategies on serving those customers who would most appreciate those superior services, they might have a chance at
disrupting the rides market place and earning success.
4.
For some of these rides, all is fine and current ride providers can’t be disrupted. A business professional traveling on an expense account where affordability is not an issue, Uber/Lyft/taxis
really can’t be beaten. Coming home from going almost anyplace when affordability is a personal issue, the availability of an affordable driverless ride makes all the difference in deciding to go in the first place. That’s life-changing. That’s disruptive.
Focus should be on deployments that learning and then serving the mobility needs these folks where these systems have a golden opportunity to actually earn their glory.
My point here is that safety is important, but being safer is NOT and should NOT be paramount for this system any more than it has not been paramount for NHTSA to make GM and other
car makers install speed governors, breathalyzers, etc. Driverless systems can deliver so much value to those who need rides from someone else as well as even those that can and do dive themselves rides while being safe that they shouldn’t be unfairly burdened
by unattainable safety hurdles.
The other enormous lesson that we all must learn, or re-learn, is that “the
cover up ends up being worse than the crime”. Alain
Cruise Cofounder Dan Kan Resigns
Following CEO’s Departure
C. Farivar, Nov.20, “On Monday morning, Cruise’s cofounder and chief product officer Dan Kan resigned from the company, less than 24 hours after his fellow cofounder and CEO Kyle Vogt announced
his resignation. …” Read More
Hmmmm…. Final thought on this: wonder what he and Kyle will do next! Alain
UPCOMING
LAUNCH: STARSHIP'S SECOND FLIGHT TEST
Staff, Nov. 17, “The second flight test of a fully integrated
Starship is set to launch Saturday, November 18. A twenty-minute launch window opens at 7:00 a.m. CT.
A live webcast of the flight test will begin about 35 minutes before liftoff, which you can watch here and on
X @SpaceX. As is the case with all developmental testing, the schedule is dynamic and likely to change, so be sure to stay tuned to our X account for updates. …” Read
More Hmmmm…. Can't wait. Here with Elizabeth and 9 of my students. :-) See
Pre-Launch ZoomCast below . Alain
Under Fire Over Robotaxi Safety, GM Halts Production Of Cruise Driverless Van
C. Farivar, Nov. 6, “Reeling from a month in which the California DMV yanked Cruise’s
permits for its self-driving robotaxis and the
company paused all operations, Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt held an all hands meeting Monday to explain how the company was planning to address concerns that its autonomous vehicles are not yet safe enough to operate. One of the very first announcements: pausing
production of a fully autonomous van called the Origin, which Cruise parent company GM was planning to ramp up in the imminent future.
According to audio of the address obtained by Forbes, Vogt remarked on
the company’s recent decision to halt driverless operations across its entire autonomous vehicle fleet, telling staff that “because a lot of this is in flux, we did make the decision with GM to pause production of the Origin.”? …” Read
More Hmmmm…. Pausing is fine and likely a good decision; although, pauses necessarily incur additional cost; else,
we would all pause all of the time. What is fundamentally troubling here is that one incident that could easily be characterized as a situation in which “the good actors”, while doing everything right, unfortunately tried to do even a little more good, which
unpredictably set off a chaotic effect, well-known in the mathematics of non-linear dynamical systems as Chaos
theory.
What just happened? What have we learned? The ironies abound.
San Francisco is turning into THE “Training Set” of both what to do
and what not to do for those building AI models for “The
Real Case for Driverless Mobility” and for those struggling to do good for society.
The biggest lesson that is staring us in the face is that it is really
important for all in this business to be able to collaborate and share as much as possible and safety related information including safety scenarios and approaches to being able to safely address those scenarios. These companies should NOT be competing on
safety, because safety is a necessary condition. Unsafeness of one reflects poorly on all. The first legislation that Congress should pass of this technology should focus on anti-trust immunity to this industry related to safety. Safet is everyone’s responsibility.
We’ve benefited enormously by cooperating on safety in the airline industry. Alain
THE
NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2023 ISSUE IN BRIEF
M. Sena, Oct 28, “, Oct. 25, “Two-and-a-half months after I came home to Sweden
from my May “Searching for America” trip, which took me through New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania, I returned for a second tour of duty. This one was during the last two weeks in July, and it took me from Sweden to Boston, up to Canada, and back. I was carried
in cars (mostly SUVs and pick-up trucks, all ICEs), buses, planes (including the kind that land on water), boats, all terrain vehicles, and my own two feet (mostly clad in wading boots) to my many destinations. The trains got me to and from Copenhagen, my
point of departure from Europe. The main purpose of this trip was to go fishing with my good friend and fishing partner for the past forty-nine years, whom I had not seen in five years. We went to a river in Labrador where we had fished together between 1986
and 1996. We decided to give it one last try. I found that everyone I met on this trip is still making their choice of transport based on their own particular needs and desires, and not being influenced by either climate change activists or climate change
deniers. They are asking themselves what is the best transport option that satisfies the combination of lowest cost, most convenience, greatest comfort, and fastest speed of arrival, and which fits with current conditions of time of year, weather, and time
of day? I am fully aware that I didn’t need to travel to the U.S. and Canada to spend a few days fishing in the wilderness of Labrador. People do a lot of things they do not NEED to do. Do I feel better for having done it? Yes, for more reasons than I can
list or explain, even to myself. I am happy to have spent the money for this trip in a way that gives people work, and to have had the experience of seeing in person my dearest friends. What else is life for? …” Read
more Hmmmm….
Another wonderful issue, especially the lead article “The Business if Transport Systems. Enjoy reading and tune into my discussion with Michael in ZoomCast 342 Alain
S. Aquino, Oct. 25, “ … As someone who has covered both Cruise and Waymo for
this column on multiple occasions, and especially as someone who has low vision, I fully admit to feeling frustration over the myopic viewpoint dominating this issue. It should be obvious safety is an important aspect of developing, deploying, and ultimately
riding in an autonomous vehicle. Of course people want to be as safe as possible. The problem is nobody accepts safety is but one side of the coin; there is another consideration to take into account that people are predictably—infuriatingly so—missing.
That consideration, as ever, is accessibility.
While
members of the disability community have raised safety concerns, the strident opposition by many in City Hall (and, again, residents) to autonomous vehicles overlooks the very
real, and very valid, accessibility benefits of using so-called “robotaxis.” The reality is, to claim the concerns are paramountly about safety helps obfuscate any general ignorance towards how disabled people get around. The protestors and naysayers yell
and scream about how awful companies such as Cruise are because they can—they’re able to drive their cars or walk down the street or take the bus or otherwise get here and there about town with resistance. Their lifestyle, and more pointedly,
their privilege, is such they believe there are other, friendlier, more feasible modes of transportation that ostensibly “everyone” can access in equal favor…” Read
more Hmmmm….
Thank you Forbes for publishing this perspective. Recall it was a human driver who hit the pedestrian and then drove away. Human drivers kill an average of more than 100 people every day in the USA. [see below for another recent tragedy] Alain
SPIA
Reacts: Crisis in the Middle East
Staff, Oct. 7, “…” Read
more Hmmmm….
Another most informative panel. If you haven’t, also watch: The
Outbreak of War In Israel- A Geopolitical Update, was
given earlier this week by former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt & Israel, Daniel C. Kurtzer.
Company News, Sept 6, “Waymo and Swiss Re, one of the world’s leading reinsurers, partnered
in 2022 to advance risk assessment methodologies and approaches to evaluating safety of autonomous vehicles.
Today, we’re sharing new research led by Swiss Re which shows Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are significantly safer than those driven by humans. In the over 3.8 million miles that Waymo drove without a human behind the steering wheel across San Francisco, CA
and Phoenix, AZ, there were zero bodily injury claims and a significant reduction in the property damage claims frequency.
While the research community and general public have long asked whether an autonomous driver is safer than human drivers, the industry has faced challenges in developing a robust and well-calibrated human performance benchmark for comparison. This study addresses
these challenges by establishing a comparison baseline based on liability insurance claims data.
The study compares Waymo’s liability claims data with mileage- and zip-code-calibrated private passenger vehicle (human driver) baselines established by Swiss Re. Based on Swiss Re’s data from over 600,000 claims and over 125 billion miles of exposure, these
baselines are extremely robust and highly significant.
The findings indicate that in comparison to the Swiss Re human driver baseline, the Waymo Driver — Waymo’s fully autonomous driving technology — significantly reduced the frequency of property damage claims by 76% (a decrease from 3.26 to 0.78 claims per million
miles) when compared to human drivers. Furthermore, it completely eliminated bodily injury claims, a drastic contrast to the Swiss Re human driver baseline of 1.11 claims per million miles….” Read
more Hmmmm… Compelling
findings from folks whose livelihood is focused on assessing safety. As the San Francisco deployment has demonstrated, Waymo passes the proof-of-concept “Turing Test” for safety. However, they have yet to demonstrate that they can pass a proof-of -market
test. Alain
Tesla
FSD v12: Breakthrough We've Been
Waiting For?
Rob Mauer, Aug. 28, “➤ Elon
Musk livestreams Tesla’s FSD Beta v12 ➤ Tesla
compute capacity updates ➤ Hardware
4 information ➤ Highland
/ Cybertruck updates ➤ Tesla
lithium refinery progress ➤ Megapack
price reduction ➤ Piper
Sandler issues note on TSLA ➤ Calendar." Read
more Hmmmm… Very
perceptive perspective on FSDv12. Is FSDv12 close to passing Kornhauser’s “Turing Proof-of-concept” for driverless mobility? Alain
Elon
Musk Livestream of his FSD v12 drive
Brighter w/Herbert, Aug. 25, “"Elon Musk just livestreamed his Full Self Driving
of V12 around Palo Alto Ashok Elluswamy Director of AI was with him”. Read
more Hmmmm… Interesting
commentary on Elon’s LiveStream of FSDv12.. Alain
GM-backed Cruise is “just days away” from regulatory approval to begin
mass production of its fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, the company’s CEO, Kyle Vogt, said at an investor conference Thursday.
Cruise first unveiled the Origin robotaxi in early 2020 as a bus-like vehicle built for the sole purpose of shuttling people around in a city autonomously. But since then, the company has been mired in a lengthy regulatory process before it can begin mass production.
The vehicle’s lack of traditional human controls means that Cruise needs an exemption from the federal government’s motor vehicle safety standards, which require vehicles to have a steering wheel and pedals. The Origin has neither.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) only grants 2,500 such exemptions a year. There is legislation to increase that number to 25,000, but it is currently stalled in the Senate.
B. Wang, Aug. 15, “GM’s Cruise robotaxi service has expanded from 70 to 300
robotaxis operating in San Francisco and will soon expand to Phoenix, Los Angeles, Austin and Dubai. GM Cruise had increasing losses of $561 million in the first quarter of 2023. This will be over $2 billion in losses in 2023. GM Cruise will having increasing
billions in net losses until they reach profitable scale. IF GM Cruise grows revenue by 1000 to 2000 times (100,000% to 200,000%) by 2030 and achieves operational and financial efficiency then it would become very profitable. Robotaxi’s must continue to undercut
Uber, taxi and public transit pricing to get the market share. This will take perhaps $100 billion or much more cumulative losses to finally reach profitability.
Waymo financials is in Google Other Bets and were a lot of the Other Bet losses
of $4.8 billion in 2020 and $5.2 billion in 2021 and $6B in 2022. Morgan Stanley analysts valued Waymo at $175 billion in 2018, $105 billion in Sept 2019 and the Waymo valuation
estimate in 2023 is $30 billion….” Read
more Hmmmm… All
the more reason that focusing on serving the folks whom Uber/Lyft serve amounts to chasing the wrong customers. Those customers are simply too diffuse spatially and too needy to justify their high price. Being marginally cheaper (~20% discount) isn’t sufficiently
disruptive to expand this customer base and is inconsequential to the bulk of valued ride-hailing customers - those taking longer trips who tip well. Even if Cruise & Waymo got’em all, the financials aren’t pretty. Too few, too needy to end up contributing
anywhere near enough to have any hope for profit, even after bankruptcy, let alone an RoI on the initial investment.
Proof-of-market only makes sense when the fundamental advantages of driverless’
on-demand, spatial land temporal flexibility can be leveraged to offer really good mobility at a very low price within sufficiently concentrated areas to people who need a ride within that concentrated area and are willing to put a little shoe leather into
the game.
Such market disruptions happen every day in even not-so-tall buildings.
Just think: if getting around in tall buildings required a “ride-hailing” service model, we would have no tall buildings. You’d need an app, an elevator operator, a rating system, layers of public oversight, … but, you could go directly from the front door
to your room… maybe??? No reason why the elevator service (easily accessible pick up and drop off, on-demand 24/7, casual rid-sharing attendant/driver-free service) model can’t be enormously disruptive in attracting the loyalty of the vast number of people
who need a ride and, also, to the many who find themselves forced into giving themselves a ride and even some who can readily give themselves a ride.
In case I haven’t been clear, the ride-haling service model is not a sufficiently
disruptive business model to afford the investment that driverless requires. Had it been easy to do driverless and the Elaine Herzberg crash had not occurred, then maybe Uber/Lyft would be financial darlings. Unfortunately, driverless has proven to be really
tough and Uber/Lyft are but taxis with a really nice app, but are forever burdened with providing a living wage to an individual who services but one rider at a time, not only for that ride, but also the time waiting around for that rider and the time getting
to that rider. The driver has very little opportunity to be more productive, since, apparently, ride-sharing destroys ride-hailing’s service concept to an extent that is greater than can be restored by a cheaper price to the valued ride-hailing customers.
Thus, no ride sharing, Moreover, the non-constant demand throughout the day induces a substantial amount dead time further challenging driver productivity. Thus, as with taxis and limos, Under/Lyft ride hailing can’t be less substantially less expensive
than taxis/limos and given the expected returns and life-styles of the Silicon Valley inventors of ride-hailing it is not the right disruptive business model for driverless. The elevator business model of making it easy for anyone to get a ride any time
from and to many places, with or without others, no app required and is such a good way to go that those benefiting from that equitable accessibility might be willing to pitch in an make it even free because in the end it is so inexpensive to deliver. Now
that’s disruptive!
If you want to learn more about the wrong business model for driverless,
see Brian being interviewed in Tesla
Expert: Why Cruise and Waymo Will Go Bankrupt Alain
Tampa
adds fleet of Tesla SUVs for new mobility option around city
Andrew Harlan, July 31, “The Tampa Downtown Partnership announced the launch
of DASH, a new service featuring Tesla SUVs that will carry folks to 20 different spots around Tampa. The trip will cost just a few dollars, and an official route map will be revealed later in August.
DASH is described as an innovative new option to travel around fast-growing
Downtown Tampa. This service will zip passengers through the city with low-cost shared rides between more than 20 different hubs located across Downtown….” Read
more Hmmmm…
Fantastic!! Tampa becomes the first MOVES-style mobility system in the world to ”…zip passengers through the city with low-cost
shared rides between more than 20 different hubs located across Downtown…” providing “Safe, Affordable, Equitable, Sustainable, High-quality” rides. Hopefully, Trenton can become the 2nd where We’ve caledl the Hubs “Kiosks” (or “Hubs” or
??) with a vision to evolve to driverless operation so that the cost to operate the service becomes truly Affordable. 😊 Alain
Exclusive:
Disability advocates push for robotaxi expansion
M. Dickey, July 21, "San Francisco's LightHouse for the Blind and Visually
Impaired is among a group of community organizations urging state regulators to approve Waymo's permit that would enable the self-driving car company to receive payments for its around-the-clock service in San Francisco.
Why it matters: Community organizations that advocate on behalf of people with disabilities argue autonomous vehicles are safer and provide more accessibility and independence than traditional ride-hailing services, and hope the permit will encourage expanded
services.
What's happening: In an open
letter posted Friday, more than a dozen community advocacy groups urged the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)
to "approve Waymo's permit at the earliest possible opportunity," arguing driverless cars "can ensure this next generation of transportation is more inclusive than ever."
In addition to LightHouse, other groups include the San Francisco LGBT Center, Self-Help for the Elderly and the Epilepsy Foundation of Northern California.
Read
more Hmmmm…
Excellent! Thrilled to see that communities are advocating for MORE Waymo/driverless services, and that their requests are getting at least some media attention. We are hoping that many more groups follow suit. Wouldn’t it be great if companies like Waymo
focused on the needs of similar community groups AND did a better job publicizing their progress in terms of delivering safe, affordable demand-responsive/high-quality rides? All too often the stories intended to catch the public eye are written by those
who don’t actually need a ride and who don’t seem to care about the potential of driverless services to disrupt the giving rides market for the betterment of society [see below]. The fact that “more than a dozen” advocacy groups are joining to lobby for
Waymo’s permitting is proof that they (and Cruise) meet the Caudill
Corollary: “Proof-of-Community Value & Sustainability”. Alain
Editorial: Cruise and Waymo have passed the “Turing (Kornhauser) Test” for Proof-of-Technology
A. Kornhauser, July
14,”Happy Bastille
Day! ” What a day for me to write my first editorial. Fane 24 begins its Bastille Day: A brief history of France’s
July 14 national holiday… “Bastille
Day” is known in France simply
as “le Quatorze Juillet”, a reference to the date on which it is held. July 14 became an official national holiday in 1880 to commemorate key turning points in French history.
… Today, July 14, 2023, commemorates for me the turning point in autonomousTaxi (aka aTaxi, roboTaxi) history to commemorate
aTaxi’s passage of the “Turing (Kornhauser) proof-of-technology” test, as written in Wikipedia… “The Turing
test, originally called the imitation
game by Alan
Turing in 1950,[2] is
a test of a machine's ability to exhibit
intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would
judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. …” …
Kornhauser’s "Proof-of-Technology” version of the Turing Test, as it might
appear in Wikipedia, would be “… a machine's ability to give a ride equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Kornhauser proposed that a human evaluator would judge rides given in an Operational Design Domain between a human
and a machine designed to generate human-like rides given in that Operational Design Domain. …”
After spending three days in San Francisco listening to and engaging in
discussions describing the testing of driverless cars by Cruise and Waymo, and getting rides given by humans and by machines designed to give human-like rides, I've come to the conclusion that, if I kept my eyes closed, I could not tell if a human or a machine
was giving me the ride. Rides were indistinguishable. Furthermore, since their simulations and data-supported real-world testing experience have more than satisfied the safety equivalence condition by exceeding it, I can declare that both Cruise and Waymo
have passed the “Turing (Kornhauser) Proof-of-Technology Test”
That is an enormous accomplishment. I for one/many/most/essentiallyAll
New Jerseyians can’t wait for Cruise and/or Waymo to assemble sufficient machines, adjust them to address some of the quirks of a Trenton/Mercer County ODD, a Perth Amboy/Middlesex County ODD, a Patterson/Pasaic County ODD, a Newark/Essex County ODD… and offer
human-like rides to us. I’m certain Cruise and/or Waymo will find us grateful, thankful, appreciative of the improved quality-of-life that they’ll be able to profitably deliver to so many of us in New Jersey. By coming to New Jersey, they'll go beyond the “Turing
(Kornhauser) Proof-of-Technology" test to pass the “Kornhauser Proof-of-Market" Test. Alain
Should
your car prevent accidents, period?
F. Fishkin, July 4, “Would
you want to own a car that would simply stop most accidents from happening? What about having that kind of car for your children? At Princeton University, the faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering, Alain Kornhauser, my co-host on the Smart Driving
Cars podcast…says many vehicles today are equipped with enough technology or could be equipped with enough technology, to simply not permit excessive speeding, tailgating and other forms of reckless driving and could prevent the vast majority of collisions…along
with the associated deaths, injuries and costs. The question to ponder is….is that something we want as a society? The technology is ready and waiting. The many who have suffered injuries or lost loved ones…would likely say yes. What about you?
What about regulators and carmakers? …” Read
more Hmmmm…
Of course. Fred and I have for years said there are 3 groupings of SmartDrivingCars:
* SafeDrivingCars… exactly what Fred is talking about. Their value proposition
is they keep the driver from misbehaving if that misbehavior is likely to lead to a crash of any kind.
* SelfDrivingCars… that perform the driving functionality when the driver
remains engaged in overseeing the automated driving and remains completely capable of reengaging in the driving process within very short notice. Their value proposition is the delivery of comfort and convenience to the driver.
* DriverlessCars… that performs all of the driving functionality. No
assistance is required or desired to be done by any of the vehicle occupants. These operate as well with or without any person in them. Everyone inside is a passenger. Their value proposition is purely an economic one in which no human labor expense is
incurred in the provision of mobility. This economic benefit can be profound in not only substantially reducing the cost of mobility but also enabling levels of service and vehicle utilization that are substantially better than can otherwise be achieved.
Alain
A
Driverless Contest for Mid-Size Cities
K. Pyle, June 14, “A benefit of travel is the random conversations with strangers
that cause one to look at the world in a slightly different way. For instance, standing in the airport security line this week, a lady from Little Rock, AR explained that Uber and Lyft no longer serve the hometown of the Bill Clinton Presidential Library.
[Fact check, according
to its website, Lyft and Uber, as well as other local providers serve the Clinton National Airport.]
She said their apps indicated that their respective services were not available.
She believes this happened as a result of the pandemic.
[Fact check; Perhaps there still is a
dearth of drivers as reported in 2021.]
She described the taxi service in the Little Rock area as “awful”. It takes
an hour and a half to get one. She also doesn’t feel safe in a taxi especially compared to Uber/Lyft…
If her perception of the limited mobility choices is representative of the population,
perhaps Little Rock would be a great use case for a driverless service. I forwarded this question to Princeton Professor Kornhauser and Michele Lee of Cruise for them to ponder and look forward to any feedback they might have (Kornhauser comments about this
in the latest SmartDrivingCars podcast).
As background, the three of us serendipitously converged at CES2023
and talked about mobility challenges. In a soundbite from that interview, Lee explains the challenges and opportunities for
improving mobility and questions whether she could make the journey to Alain’s house. There are glimpses of her entering and securing her wheelchair in the Cruise, driverless Origin vehicle….“ Read
more Hmmmm… Check
out ZoomCast322 below.
Be sure to also look at Ken’s embedded video with Michelle. Alain
NHTSA
Proposes Automatic Emergency Braking Requirements for New Vehicles
Press release, May 31, “The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration today announced a Notice
of Proposed Rulemaking that would require automatic emergency braking and pedestrian AEB systems on passenger cars and light
trucks. The proposed rule is expected to dramatically reduce crashes associated with pedestrians and rear-end crashes.
NHTSA projects that this proposed rule, if finalized, would save at least
360 lives a year and reduce injuries by at least 24,000 annually. In addition, these AEB systems would result in significant reductions in property damage caused by rear-end crashes. Many crashes would be avoided altogether, while others would be less destructive.
“Today, we take an important step forward to save lives and make our roadways
safer for all Americans,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said. “Just as lifesaving innovations from previous generations like seat belts and air bags have helped improve safety, requiring automatic emergency braking on cars and trucks would keep
all of us safer on our roads.” …” Read
more Hmmmm… This
is substantial and you must read Notice
of Proposed Rulemaking which contains the details, especially page 14 (interesting that it states:”…
all speeds above 10 km/h (6.2 mph), even if these speeds are above the speeds tested by NHTSA…”. Does this mean that If I’m doing x over the speed limit, say 100mph, the system must remain functionable and very rarely suffer from false positives. Fantastic!
Also pay attention to the phase “imminent collision” that is supposed to
trigger into action such a system. One must be very precise in the definition of “imminent” (is it really “1.6 seconds to collision” or ???). I might suggest that nothing is imminent. There is a physical process that evolves over time from a state in which
everything in “hunk-dory” to a time when one is between the “rock & hard place”. Maybe the Advance Driver Assistance System (ADAS, intelligent cruise control, et al) should be communicating with the AEB so as to avoid, as much as possible, ever getting to
that magical “imminent” point. The more that can be done to prepare and begin to do things as one passes through 2.0, 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, 1,65, 1.625, … so as to raise back up the time to collision to 1.65, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9. 2.0, .. infinity, the better!
If this is done well, the driver may not even be aware that it is happening.
Then: No complaints! No taking the car back to the dealer and claiming it is a lemon! No or greatly reduced “false imminent train wrecks” (especially when traveling at high speeds!!!). Doing this well delivers enormous value to the driver and society!
Here is what Neal
Boudette of the NY Times and Andrew
Hawkins of Verge wrote about this. Alain
The
Road to Autonomy, April 25. “The
Road to Autonomy®, a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles and logistics, has selected S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) to be the custom calculation agent for The Road to Autonomy Index (ticker: AUTONOMY) and The Road to Autonomy
Total Return Index (ticker: AUTOMYTR). The Road to Autonomy Index, comprised of 38 publicly-traded companies, measures the performance
of the autonomous vehicle and logistics ecosystems, including autonomous vehicles, trucks and off-road specialty vehicles, as well as transportation, technology, industrial and services companies that have identified autonomy as a key component of their growth
strategies.
"The Road to Autonomy Index provides a comprehensive view into this dynamic sector
that is poised to shape the future of how we live and work," said Grayson Brulte, founder and chief executive officer of The Road to Autonomy. "Our unmatched knowledge of the industry and the influences that drive it give us unique perspective into its potential,
and our partnership with S&P DJI provides a foundation of integrity and transparency for the Index."… “ Read
more Hmmmm…
Very interesting. See ZoomCast
316/PodCast
316 below Alain
As
Appears in the NY Times (& CNN)
April 20, 2023, "...
" Read more Hmmmm…..
Check out the guy in the Orange shorts. My
2nd live launch. My 1st was July 16, 1969, Cape Kennedy, Apollo 11. 😎
While
On-Road Driverless Slows, Ag-Tech Autonomy Players Are Plowing Ahead
R. Bishop, March 30, “The John
Deere Company wowed the crowds at the 2023 Consumer Electronics Show in January with their high-tech agricultural equipment. At their
exhibit, heads craned upward in awe to take in the 120 ft boom of their precision spraying technology, straddled atop a massive tractor. At the CES 2022, Deere & Company introduced a fully
autonomous tractor.
In the months since CES, we’ve seen multi-faceted challenges for companies seeking
to transform road-running Automated Driving Systems (ADS) into a profitable business. ADS developer Embark announced a shutdown and Locomation appears to be on the same path. The mood of investors is uncertain, especially given troubles in the banking sector.
Against this backdrop, the off-road world is becoming increasingly interesting for
companies developing autonomy. Caterpillar and Komatsu brought the first commercial ADS’s to mining operations well over a decade ago. At that time, although the tech was very expensive, a business case could be made for equipping the huge mine-hauling trucks
at open pit mines.
Since that time, thanks to the tidal wave of AV development for passenger cars, trucks,
robo-shuttles, delivery robots, and more, the tech cost has now come down to reasonable levels for other types of industrial operations. Plus, the tech robustness has progressed by leaps and bounds. The result? Use cases are expanding rapidly in areas such
as agriculture and construction. For this article, I’ll dig into the Ag space to examine the linkages with on-road autonomy….” Read
more Hmmmm…..
Right on, Dick! Such a timely and excellent post.
As I wrote last week in SmartDrivingCar.com/11.13-AutomotiveAI-033123 and
is repeated below… “ The objective of the 6th SmartDrivingCars Summit will be to put the eventual manufacturers of driverless
passenger vehicles together with the eventual operators of transportation services to decide if there is a business to be made from delivering affordable mobility to a large segment our societies who are underserved by the current options: private cars and
public transport.
It’s already happening with military and work vehicles”... !
Alain
SpaceX
Continues Rapid Development of Starship Infrastructure - Starbase Weekly Update #53
LabPadre, March 12, “This week at Starbase Raptor installation begins on Booster 9,
construction continues on Ships 28 and 30, Ship 26 is parked at the ring yard and the nosecone test article is set to Massey's test site, while at Cape Canaveral SpaceX maintains a blinding pace of launch and recovery operations, ULA's first Vulcan rocket
begins testing, and we review a new batch of flyover photos courtesy of Greg Scott….” Read
more Hmmmm….. Watch
video. Excellent weekly update. Alain
Starbase
Live: 24/7 Starship & Super Heavy Development From SpaceX's Boca Chica Facility
MasaSpaceflight, Live, “Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable launch system which
is being developed at Starbase in Cameron County, Texas. Starbase LIVE provides 24/7 coverage of the exciting developments and testing progress….” Read
more Hmmmm….. Watch
LiveStream 24/7. Alain
Riding
Nairobi's Craziest Matatu, Kenya
J. Billam, Feb. 11 ’22, “I show my wild experience riding Nairobi's Craziest Matatu (local
bus) bound for Rongai in Kenya's capital city… “ Watch
more Hmmmm... If
we aren’t going to have Moves-style
Autonomous Transit Networks, then Matatus may
well be the answer to safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, and colorful mobility. Millions take them every day in Nairobi, Kenya. Amazing. J
Alain
All
Nairobi Matatu Routes at your fingertips!
“ Have you ever found yoursel in town with no idea how to get to a certain destination
using Public Transport and you end up calling friends or asking strangers where a certain Matatu stage is? You are not alone!! Thousands of Nairobians go through this daily!
So us cool peeps at MyRide Africa thought to bring this to an end so that you never
get lost in Nairobi again! We have the all new Matatu Map on the App that can help you to find any route in Nairobi in 3 easy steps…’’ Read
more Hmmmm... Just
returned from a trip of a life time to Kenya. Absolutely fantastic experience Alain
S. Still, Jan. 10, Project Overview: University at Buffalo is issuing this
Request for Proposals (RFP) to solicit proposals from qualified firms to provide self-driving shuttle vehicles and operations in the Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus and surrounding neighborhoods. The project is funded by the US Department of Transportation
as part of its ITS4US program.
Proposal Date/Time:
February 1, 2023 2:30pm EST. Proposals received after the specified time will not be accepted.
The Request for Proposals (RFP) documents are available now by registering through
this link: https://www.nyscr.ny.gov/adsOpen.cfm Questions
can be addressed to David Markey, Senior Buyer, at [log in to unmask].
….” Read
more Hmmmm... I
love what Dr. Steve Still is trying to do in Buffalo. All the best. Alain
Once
You See the Truth About Cars, You Can’t Unsee It
Guest Opinion: A. Ross & J. Livingston,Dec. 15, “ In American consumer lore,
the automobile has always been a “freedom machine” and liberty lies on the open road. “Americans are a race of independent people” whose “ancestors came to this country for the sake of freedom and adventure,” the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce’s soon-to-be-president,
Roy Chapin, declared in 1924. “The automobile satisfies these instincts.” During the Cold War, vehicles with baroque tail fins and oodles of surplus chrome rolled off the assembly line, with Native American names like Pontiac, Apache, Dakota, Cherokee, Thunderbird
and Winnebago — the ultimate expressions of capitalist triumph and Manifest Destiny.
But for many low-income and minority Americans, automobiles have been turbo-boosted
engines of inequality, immobilizing their owners with debt, increasing their exposure to hostile law enforcement, and in general accelerating the forces that drive apart haves and have-nots. ….” Read
more Hmmmm….. The
fundamentals of our MOVES approach to the deployment is focused directly on providing a high-quality affordable alternative to this community. Moreover, the
comment that the NYT posted with the article. Alain
I'm
going to the moon!!!... Literally!
T. Dodd, Dec. 8, “t's true! I have been chosen as one of the members of the incredible
dearMoon mission around the moon on SpaceX's Starship rocket. To learn more about the mission and to meet the rest of the crew, visit - http://dearmoon.earth & https://dearmoon.earth/share_crew/tim... And
hear more about the announcement from Yusaku Maezawa!!! - https://youtu.be/DKNSlL3Inn8...
“ Watch
more Hmmmm... So
deserving! Tim has done so much to make rigorous “rocket science” understandable by non-rocket scientists while maintaining the rigor. For that substance he has been most justifiable awarded this special honor. Life is good! Tim, you most justifiably earned
this incredible privilege. Full disclosure… I’m a long time subscriber to [log in to unmask] Click or
tap if you trust this link.">Everyday
Astronaut. Alain
What
Riding in a Self-Driving Tesla Tells Us About the Future of Autonomy
C. Metz, Nov. 14, “Cade
and Ian spent six hours riding in a self-driving car in Jacksonville, Fla., to report this story.
When we decided it was time for lunch, Chuck Cook tapped the digital display on the
dashboard of his Tesla Model Y and told the car to drive us to the Bearded Pig, a barbecue joint on the other side of town.
“I don’t know how it’s gonna do. But I think it’s gonna do pretty good,” he said with
the folksy, infectious enthusiasm he brought to nearly every moment of our daylong tour of Jacksonville, Fla., in a car that could drive itself. …
As the car approached the shadows beneath this mossy canopy, it suddenly changed course,
turned sharply right and headed the wrong way down a one-way street: he moment highlighted the difference between Tesla’s self-driving technology and “robotaxi” services being developed by companies like Waymo, owned by the same parent company as Google,
and Cruise, backed by General Motors. The robotaxi companies are trying to reduce these unexpected moments by tightly controlling where and how a car can drive. But these services will have strict limitations that make the task easier. The cars will travel
only in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds. And company technicians will provide remote assistance to cars that inevitably find themselves in situations they cannot navigate on their own…. "Read
more Hmmmm... This
is exactly the basis for our MOVES-style approach to deployment. In the near term, this technology has a reasonable chance of being good enough if its calibrations (the released version) has been biased to work well in …” in
certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds” ,. It must also demonstrated that it does work well
(zero disengagements) in a sufficient subset of the streets in those neighborhoods such that the driver/attendant is not needed to ensure safe operation. Substantially better mobility can then be delivered between many locations throughout those neighborhoods
in most weather conditions than the mobility available today throughout those neighborhoods.
Unless Driverless is substantially better in delivering mobility to some in some
places they will never be more that a fad or fashion statement. Unfortunately, that’s how Driverless has been positioned to date. “My car drives itself! A ride becomes a goofy selfie on TikTok/Instagram/Twitter… Look Mom, no hands!!! Good luck in any repeat
customers or near-term RoI.
As we’ve been saying over and over, the substantial value proposition of driverless (or real FSD) is NOT safety (it can be “as safe” but, again,
way too difficult for it to be substantially safer) and, in the near term, not a fashion statement or toy for the rich (way too expensive to create that). It certainly can’t be substantially better than one’s own personal car, although it can come close to
being as good and maybe even arguably better to some.
The attributes that can make Driverless substantially better than all other forms of mobility is its capability to affordability deliver high-quality
(auto-like demand-responsive non-circuitous, 24/7 availability in most weather conditions) mobility affordably while being safe, equitable and environmentally responsive (by facilitating casual ride-sharing when warranted as is done naturally when using elevators).
Such a mobility service is offered by Kiosk2Kiosk elevator-like operation throughout the safest subset of interconnecting streets. We call these MOVES-style
Driverless Transit Networks.
Affordability is
THE key differentiator. If you are rich enough to afford a car for yourself and have a driver’s license, then this system isn’t substantially better than what you have now. Neither is it if you can afford to pay and tip an Uber/Lyft gig worker or if your
expense account pays for your taxi/limo or black car driver or if you have a chauffeur. Nor if you live in Manhattan or in the very center of a few of our largest cities. For everyone else (the too young, the too old, the too poor, the sufficiently poor
that can’t afford a car for each driver in the family, then MOVES-style
Driverless Transit Networks can readily be transformative. Trenton NJ turns out to be one of these communities where 70%
of households have access to one or fewer cars. Perth Amboy, NJ,. Cherry Hill, MD, Patterson, NJ, Scranton, PA are similar. My Mobility
Disadvantage Index for places in New Jersey can be found here and
for the rest of the US, here.
I am confident that Waymo, Cruise and Tesla could today, make their systems work
safely in Trenton and many of the other Mobility Disadvantaged communities if they simply added to their training set the data from driving between the kiosks in, say Trenton, and generated a ***.Trenton release of their ***Driver to be used exclusively in
Trenton to deliver substantially improved mobility to many. Alain
A
Deployment Framework for MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks
A. Kornhauser, Nov. 1, "So much has been happening lately on the AV scene. With
all these recent changes in mind, it seems a good moment for me to reiterate the basic fundamentals of mobility and then to restate the context with which I see the potential value of AV technology. In the following presentation, I will identify some pertinent
societal challenges where mobility might have an opportunity to substantially improve quality-of-life. Fundamental to this concept is the deployment of technology that disrupts consumer choice, thus allowing the marketplace to deliver both the economic return
on the investment in the technology and to unleash the societal benefits of the improved quality-of-life." Read
more Hmmmm... View
slides, listen to
PodCast and/or watch a repeat
of the presentation that I made at the 2022
UBC International Road Safety Symposium. Alain
Ford,
VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down
K. Korosec, Oct 26, "Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene
in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment, is shutting down — its parts being absorbed into its two main backers: Ford and VW, according to people familiar with the matter.
During an all-hands meeting Wednesday, Argo AI employees were told that some people would receive offers from the two automakers, according to multiple sources who asked to not be named. It was unclear how many would be hired into Ford or VW and which companies
will get Argo’s technology.
Employees were told they would receive a severance package that includes insurance and two separate bonuses — an annual award plus a transaction bonus upon the deal close with Ford and VW. All Argo employees will receive these. For those who are not retained
by Ford or VW, they will additionally receive termination and severance pay, including health insurance. Several people told TechCrunch that it was a generous package and that the founders of the company spoke directly to its more than 2,000 employees..." ... Certainly
a "class act" way to shut down.
"...said
Farley. “It’s mission-critical for Ford to develop great and differentiated L2+ and L3 applications that at the same time make transportation even safer.” Farley also insinuated that Ford would be able to buy AV tech down the line, instead of developing it
in house. “We’re optimistic about a future for L4 ADAS, but profitable, fully autonomous vehicles at scale are a long way off and we won’t necessarily have to create that technology ourselves,” ... Read
more Hmmmm... What??? What is "L4 ADAS"??? You are really going to do L3 which many believe is harder than L4.
L3 is going to require that Ford accept the safety liability and the "obey all the legal operation" liability for the life of the vehicle whenever the driver is able to engage that functionality. There is NO WAY Ford or really any OEM is ever going to take
on that substantive amount of liability unless there is such an abundance of fine print that it makes Elon's proclamations about FSD seem like junior varsity.
We all understand that "L2+" is today's "50s-style chrome & fins" propelling the
selling cars in showrooms as OEMs have always done. Absolutely no need to get to driverless (L4 in some societly or commercially viable ODD).
Idf someone does develop (as I quoted last week) Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology
Threshold …: "... [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins
of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph
A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”, it is going to simply make it available to allow Ford to continue to serve its customers or will
use it to crush Ford? Alain
L. Sumagaysay, Oct. 27, "...", Read
more Hmmmm... Another view. Alain
Ford
thinks driver assist is a safer bet than driverless cars, but it’s fooling itself
1. Hawkins,
Oct. 27, "When Ford announced yesterday that it was pulling its support for Argo AI, the autonomous driving startup it had financed since 2017, it cited as one of its reasons a belief that driver-assist technology will have more near-term payoffs....." Read
more Hmmmm... I
agree with Andrew, as I stated above. Alain
Moving
Forward with Trenton MOVES
K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable,
and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES)
Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..." Read
more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
Smart
Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving
Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving.
The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th." Read
more Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of
the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain.
W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora,
N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5 million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented
public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originally announced
by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable
high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the
first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time. The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the
central destinations on the first routes.
The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022
in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to attend. ...." Read
more Hmmmm... Another real milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes
the 5thPrinceton
SmartDrivingCar Summit June
2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES' mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and,
very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The
Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit.
Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, *69, *71, P03, P27
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
229 Sherrerd Hall |
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