2024-05-12

2024-05-12

Click or tap if you trust this link.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

20th edition of the 12th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter

Information Request ID RQ24009 to Mr. Gates:

G. Magno, May 6, “This letter is to inform you that the Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a Recall Query (RQ24009) to investigate the remedy effectiveness of Recall 23V838. …” Read More Hmmmm… A remedy was implemented, and its effectiveness is being investigated. Fair enough!

Actually, beyond fair to very good… In this case, involving extremely rare events, data are available to indicate that the defect may still persist.

Moreover, beyond very good to fantastic … In this case, current data may also be available that may enable the precise quantification of the effectiveness of the remedy in the real world and the design and dissemination of a more effective remedy.

As someone existing in the antiseptic world of an ‘academic bubble’ and carefully reading all 18 pages of the ‘Information Request,’ I’m wondering if this isn’t completely uncharted territory for NHTSA, if not all safety-responsible entities in terms of its depth and timeliness?

I suspect that, given the opportunity, lawyers use ‘discovery’ to go on very deep fishing expeditions, but this one seems different. It seems like they know for what they are fishing, that the fish exist, and that the fish may actually be anxious and willing to get caught so as to be able to jointly solve this nasty problem … Wow! and possibly derive even more societal value in the process … Wow, Wow!!

Is life really this good???

In this case it may well be…

  • Neither NHTSA nor Tesla want ‘AutoPilot’ or ‘Supervised FSD’ or ‘whatever you call it’ to be technologically unsafe. This can largely be done (and has been) in the lab, in simulation and in controlled real-world environments.

  • Nor do either want misbehaving users to misbehave implicitly or explicitly in using these products. Unfortunately, this “human-in-the-loop” aspect of these technologies today aren’t done well in the lab, in simulation or controlled real-world tests. They are so nuanced by the creative work-around gaming feedback employed objectively by explicit misbehavers and, unfortunately, by as yet unobserved and unanticipated implicit misbehaviors.

  • The utopic beauty of where we might find ourselves today is that Tesla has deployed the infrastructure that enables observation and the documentation, through real-time data capture, of the performance of these features that effectively characterize their safety implications.

    • Tesla has conducted and publicly released its internal assessments of these data observations. This information request will allow NHTSA to independently authenticate or refute what Tesla has been saying all along about the overall safety implications of these features.

    • We’ll have ‘leading indicators’ as to where on the authenticity-refute spectrum NHTSA is likely to fall by the intensity of pushback, if any, Tesla exhibits in its response to some or all of this ‘Information Request”

  • What adds to the utopist view of this request is that it is so intense and deep, that such a request would only be made if NHTSA knew that Tesla has the data, can readily respond and likely wants NHTSA’s help in solving this challenge.

    • Moreover, Tesla realizes that it alone can’t sufficiently control the creative mis-behaving elements of the human-in-the-loop aspects of these features. It needs NHTSA’s enforcement power for the “we-know-you-bought-it-but-if-we-catch-you-explicitly-misusing-it-you-lose-it-without-reimbursement” response.

  • What may have sealed this deal is Tesla’s realization that today, it may be the only car company that has a ghost of a chance to comply with such an information request. None have invested in sufficient sensing infrastructure to source the data, let alone the communications infrastructure to collect the data or the back-end infrastructure to analyze or store the data. I’ve owned a car(s) for 10 years that perform autopilot-like stuff that if I didn’t pay attention or hung a weight on the steering wheel and hopped in the back seat, I’d be dead. That company made zero effort throughout those 10 years to learn what I was doing with their ‘AutoPilot’ or made any attempt to see if I was misusing it or anything (expect inform me of the gas $ I would save if I traded in and bought a new one. It couldn’t even help me find the car when it was stolen from my driveway in front of my house because I left the remote key inside, and that remote ignition system is detectable from afar such that any Soprano in Jersey can remotely determine that I left the key inside and readily use the car for his pleasure. Whew! I digress. ).

Bottom-line is if Tesla largely complies with this request, NHTSA will be happy, Tesla will be happy, the traveling public will be safer, and the rest of the auto industry is going to experience a rude awakening that they’d better invest in the sensor, communication and back-end infrastructure to match or leapfrog Tesla, else they have no hope of incorporating any advanced driver assistance, let alone “Level 3”.

Alain

Just Published!!! Go to Amazon.com… You can still be first on your block to have one J.

SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 371 / PodCast 371 - NHTSA examines Tesla recall effectiveness-Aurora-Waymo & more

F. Fishkin, May 11, “NHTSA examines Tesla recall effectiveness while Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is optimistic about Tesla’s FSD. Plus updates from Aurora, Waymo, Daimler, Wayve and the upcoming Smart Driving Cars Summit. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 371 of Smart Driving Cars.

  • 00:00 open
  • 00:55 NHTSA examining Tesla recall effectiveness
  • 22:10 Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas posts optimistic Tesla FSD expectations
  • 25:37 Aurora letter to shareholders-year off to strong start
  • 30:25 Waymo now serving more than 50 thousand paid trips per week
  • 33:45 Daimler’s driverless Semis will hit the road in 2027
  • 36:35 Report on driverless cars with own roadway
  • 39:10 YouTuber posts FSD capabilities video in Manhattan traffic
  • 45:00 Tesla is Luminar’s largest LiDar customer
  • 47:00 6th Smart Driving Cars Summit begins May 29
  • 57:05 Can UK unicorn Wayve overtake rivals?

6thPrinceton SmartDrivingCar Summit

Alain Kornhauser, May 12 “…“Read more Hmmmm…. Our intention is to hold lively, honest exchanges in which all participants feel comfortable sharing as candidly as is reasonable. Please see the registration and sponsorship pages. Given the success that we’ve had with the past Summits and the quality of the program that we’ve been able to assemble to date, we fully expect to be sold out. As of EoD May 15, registration will require application for invitation in support of our desire to engage all who attend to engage substantively to addressing the challenges that lie ahead for improving mobility for those who drive themselves and those who need a ride (both people and non-people). Hope you’ll be able to join in with us. Alain

Tesla is finally going to release everything we want to know about Autopilot/FSD as NHTSA forces it

Fred Lambert, May 7, “Tesla is finally going to release everything we always wanted to know about Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD), but it’s because NHTSA is forcing the automaker to do it.

Last month, NHTSA announced that it was opening a new investigation into Autopilot/FSD after not being satisfied with the recall that came out of its previous investigation closed last year. …” Read More Hmmmm… In the interest of full disclosure… Fred’s take on the ‘Information Request”. Alain

Morgan Stanley posts optimistic Tesla FSD expectations after V12.3.6 experience

S. Alvarez, May 6, “Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently shared some thoughts after personally experiencing FSD (Supervised) V12.3.6. Jonas seemed quite impressed with the advanced driver-assist system, noting that it becomes cautious or assertive when it should be. He also noted that the improvements from FSD (Supervised) V12.3.4 to V12.3.6 are quite evident.

Jonas noted that the version of FSD that he recently experienced included minor tweaks, though a more substantial improvement to the system is expected with the FSD (Supervised) V12.4 release. With version V12.4, most training compute limitations have been eliminated, the analyst noted.

The Morgan Stanley analyst described a situation where cars could learn by learning instead of labeling. …” Read More Hmmmm… When Adam speaks, I learn… “Jonas also noted that Tesla’s vehicle fleet should be driving a collective 100 billion miles per year run rate by late 2025. Such a number translates to 11.6 million miles an hour or 3,200 miles per second, or almost 2 billion collective miles per week.”… and pay attention… “…situation where cars could learn by learning instead of labeling….” Another in a long list of ‘Jonasian Fundamentals’. Alain

Aurora: Letter to Shareholders

C. Urmson, May 1, “We are off to a strong start in 2024, driving purposefully toward our planned Commercial Launch at the end of the year and the subsequent scaling of our business.

Commitment to our mission remains steadfast within Aurora, fueling some of the highest levels of employee engagement we have seen as a public company. It’s this enthusiasm that drove our continued progress in the first quarter, including improving the Aurora Driver’s autonomy performance, advancing our launch lane Safety Case, and continuing to execute with financial discipline.

In March, we hosted an Analyst & Investor Day, where we demonstrated the maturity of our ecosystem, depth of our partnerships, and customer enthusiasm, which underpin our expectations that our business model will drive rapid, capital efficient revenue growth, high gross margins, and most importantly support a self-sustaining company. ….” Read More Hmmmm… Well done. All the best! (But please don’t advertise to all the road users around you that no one is inside. In my opinion.. Not a good look (and hide your LiDARs. They aren’t helping your looks. 😉) Alain

Waymo’s Post [Video]

Staff, May 9, “Our safe and deliberate approach to scaling the Waymo Driver is gaining traction, as we’re now serving more than 50,000 paid trips every week across three major cities. Thank you to our riders for trusting us to get you to your destinations safely and reliably.

We see people from all walks of life use our service to travel carefree, gain independence, reclaim their commute and more. Fully autonomous ride-hailing is a reality and a preferred mobility option for people navigating their cities every day.

The data to date shows our vehicles are improving road safety for all road users – cyclists, pedestrians and other drivers. And with an all-electric fleet powered by renewable energy, we’re working to support the sustainability goals of the cities where we operate.…” Read More Hmmmm… Watch video. It is very good. Achieving 50k personTrips per week (10,000/day) without smoke & mirrors is a non-trivial accomplishment. Certainly, a world’s first by a long shot. They’ve certainly demonstrated proof-of-concept and deserve 1st in world accolades. Given that they need to grow 30x from this to begin to show AlphaBet the beginning of a respectful RoI, it continues to amaze me that they refuse to come to Jersey, where we have many who would really benefit from the safe rides that they’ve proven they can give. I guess they know what they’re doing… Anyway, congratulations on your world-leading accomplishment. Hope to see you in the Rides marketplace. Alain & Elizabeth

Daimler’s driverless semi trucks will hit the road in 2027

A. Hawkins, May 8, “Daimler Truck, a subsidiary of the Mercedes-Benz parent company, revealed its first autonomous truck demonstrator that it said will pave the way to fully driverless freight hauling by 2027….

Daimler Truck is “fully committed” to bringing the autonomous Freightliner to series production, but only when the company deems the technology safe enough to begin testing on public roads. Butler added, “Our mantra is really it’s a marathon, and not a sprint.”….

Moreover, public opinion toward autonomous vehicles has trended downward thanks in part to missteps of companies like Tesla and Cruise, the latter of which was forced to pause operations nationwide after a pedestrian was hurt by one of its vehicles. Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has bet his company’s future on its ability to mass-produce fully autonomous robotaxis.…” Read More Hmmmm… Nice goal, but the marathon is turning out to be a ‘100 miler’. And Andrew is calling out ‘missteps’ and making sure that his readership associates Cruise with what a hit-and-run driver caused. And finally, why is a truck that will surely scare the heck out of at least some as it barrels down highway. Certainly doesn’t look friendly and inviting, at least to some. Is bullying your way down the highway an important strategy for Daimler Truck’s first demonstrator?? What aspect of that “first autonomous truck demonstrator” is characterized in that image? Oh.. I see .. that image was labeled as “safety poster child” in your ChatGPT training set. (One can’t be too cynical. Is anyone awake?? This is beyond C’mon Man).

Look…while many may want you and appreciate what you are doing, many are also clueless and a few, hopefully not many, aren’t lined up with what you want to do. Unfortunately, there are exceedingly few of us who want and appreciate you are going to stand up for you to assuage the few who may get riled up. So why draw attention to yourself by the general public while you’re talking in preparation of doing? Do some good first, then start letting folks know. In your yearn to get attention you take the risk of gaining attention from the wrong crowd. Is it really your investors that have made you behave this way? They are perceived as being only interested in \($ and so far they've only seen\)\(\). Are you really banking on ‘Likes’ to bridge that gap? Just a roll of the eyes here. Alain

Driverless cars with own roadway could solve commute problems

T. Vacar, May 7, “…”WatchVideo Hmmmm… Wow. Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) is coming back. I feel like it is 1971 with Ed Anderson and Bill Garrard all over again. Safety is no problem as long as there aren’t any “flying concrete cows”. This will be trivial to make happen. Yea!! I’m pumped!! 😊

Oh… we need fully-connected single-purpose infrastructure between everywhere in order to realize safety.

Oh, I knew I shouldn’t be watching “Fox News”. ☹

Never Mind. Alain

Watch Tesla’s controversial Full Self-Driving take on New York traffic

D. Singh, April 9, “YouTube user FSD in NYC has shared footage of their Model Y navigating midtown Manhattan traffic during peak hour.

It was able to execute more complicated manoeuvres, such as moving around a turning vehicle blocking an intersection and steering around an inconsiderate double parker.

However, it also proved too cautious at times –…” Read More Hmmmm… See Video. What??? It is not possible to be too cautious in NYC. That is way too tough and totally unnecessary. It is impressive that it works at all in NYC; however, NYC is walkable, has a great subway system, has an OK bus system, has plenty of cabs, Ubers, Lyfts, Limos and chauffeurs for those that can afford them. It doesn’t need, nor will in any way accommodate these things. San Franciscans coned, hammered and torched driverless cars. Can you imagine what New Yorkers are going to do to them if they aren’t too cautious?? Look out!!! Alain

Tesla is Luminar’s largest lidar customer

S. O’Kane, May 7, “Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that lidar sensors are a “crutch” for autonomous vehicles. But his company has bought so many from Luminar that Tesla is now the lidar maker’s top customer.

Tesla accounted for “more than 10%” of Luminar’s revenue in the first quarter of 2024, or a little more than $2 million, the lidar maker revealed Tuesday in its first-quarter earnings report.” Read More Hmmmm… By itself this is fantastic news for Luminar, even though, the 100% implication is devastating. When taken in the context that the deciders of the May 3rd news: Luminar, maker of lidar for autonomous driving, lays off 20 percent of its workforce knew all about this May 7th news about the 10% the devastation of the 100% implications got even more devastating. ☹ Alain

SoftBank leads $1 billion funding for UK self-driving startup Wayve

N. Carey, May 6, “Tesla CEO Elon Musk has said that lidar sensors are a “crutch” for autonomous vehicles. But his company has bought so many from Luminar that Tesla is now the lidar maker’s top customer.

Tesla accounted for “more than 10%” of Luminar’s revenue in the first quarter of 2024, or a little more than $2 million, the lidar maker revealed Tuesday in its first-quarter earnings report. British self-driving technology startup Wayve said on Tuesday it has raised $1.05 billion in a funding round led by SoftBank Group to accelerate the development and launch in production-model vehicles of its Embodied AI technology that can learn from and adapt to human behavior.

Nvidia also contributed in the Series C funding round as a new investor, as did existing investor Microsoft.” Read More

6thSmartDrivingCars Summit Evening May 29 -> May 31, 2024

Alain Kornhauser, May 5, “We promise civil and lively discussions as to how to improve the Quality-of-Life (QoL) for many while disrupting the QoL to as few as possible. Focus will be on the business aspects…

Giving Oneself a Ride

  • Latest on ADAS Safety, Functionality, Regulation and potential Collaboration (given anti-trust relaxation), consumer value

Getting a Driverless Ride

  • By people and goods using public roads

    • “Proof-of-Concept” (Safety Update and Last “50 feet” delivery concepts )

    • “Proof-of-Market” (Arizona, California, Texas, … rural & beyond)

    • “Proof-of-Policy/Politics/Sociology” (Regulation + Opportunities for Collaboration on Safety (given anti-trust relaxation.))

  • By people and goods on private property.

    • “Proof-of-Concept” (Safety Update)

    • “Proof-of-Market” ( Return-on-Investment (RoI) focus on: Private “ways”, Manufacturing, Ports, Terminals, Warehouses, Mining, Farms)

    • “Proof-of-Policy/Politics/CorporateGovernance” (OSHA, Unions )

Workshop

  • MOVES – Style Deployments “anywhere”. (See Example)

    • Design, Analysis, Simulation, Animation & Business Case

….” Read More Hmmmm… Our intention is to hold lively, honest exchanges in which all participants feel comfortable sharing as candidly as is reasonable. Please see the registration and sponsorship pages. Given the success that we’ve had with the past Summits and the quality of the program that we’ve been able to assemble to date, we fully expect to be sold out. As of EoD May 15, registration will require application for invitation in support of our desire to engage all who attend to engage substantively to addressing the challenges that lie ahead for improving mobility for those who drive themselves and those who need a ride (both people and non-people). Hope you’ll be able to join in with us. Alain