2013-06-17
I was able to attend only the first day the highlight of which was the live video speech and Q&A session with the Honorable Rick Snyder, Governor of Michigan. He demonstrated a real grasp of the issues and sincere interests in having Michigan not only lead in the implementation of v2v but, more importantly, collision avoidance smart driving technology. Also a highlight was Erik Coelingh from Volvo Car Corp. who repeated Volvo's stated mission of having zero people killed in Volvo cars by 2020. Kudos to Volvo's commitment to such a laudable goal. He also noted that Volvo's "City Safe" low speed (under 30km/h (20mph)) collision avoidance system, which has been standard equipment on Volvo's S60, S80, XC60 and XC70 models have experienced nearly a 30% less at-fault claims. (My comment: From this basis, the additional features in the 2014 MB E & S-class should enable those vehicles to achieve upwards of 50% less at-fault claims.) Dr. Jeremy Salinger described Cadillac's research achievements in automated driving which are impressive; however, it is obvious by visiting www.cadillac.com that Cadillac is reluctant to deliver these safety features to its customers. Cadillac's version of "City Safe", called "Driver Assist", seems to be available only on the Premium and Platinum versions of the 2013 XTS. The incremental cost is $2,395. The site does state that the system "will be available" on the 2014 CTS. Scott Nelson from MILE Auto Insurance stated that auto insurance companies tend to operate on a 5% profit margin. He suggested that the safety implications of driverless cars might result in a substantial decline of liabilities. He speculated that Progressive's cost of revenue (claims paid) for auto coverage might decline from $14B to $4B (if the insured fleet were transformed to NHTSA level 4 cars, I presume). Bryan Reimer of MIT gave the initial keynote address but seemed to set a negative tone with several references to "slowing down" which to me sounded like a "Kodak" statement. He talked about "deployment" of driverless cars as if to suggest that the public sector was in control of the introduction of these smart driving technologies. I couldn't disagree more. This isn't going to be a deployment, but rather a consumer adoption of, in Schumpeter's words "… the new technology…that delivers a substantial improvement in price and performance over the existing technology…".
Sneak peek at what Dr. Jerome Lutin, former Senior Director at NJ Transit will say at the symposium entitled: Application of Autonomous Driving Technology to Transit - Functional capabilities for Safety and Capacity: Star Ledger headline on June 14, 2013: "Hell ride: Lost NJ Transit bus arrives nearly 2 hours late to NYC." Need we say more?
Safety:
- Industry-wide average of 63,000 bus crashes per year, resulting in 14,000 injuries and 351 fatalities.
- NJ TRANSIT had four pedestrian fatalities in 2012 and 217 injured in bus incidents.
- NJ TRANSIT reported paying out $43.2 million in injury and damage claims in FY 2012. Assuming 34% of claims are allocated to Bus Operations on the basis of passenger miles suggests $14.85 million in bus claims. With an owned and contracted fleet totaling 2,403 buses (excluding 624 buses leased to private carriers), the average claims cost is estimated $6,180 per vehicle per year for 2012.
- Requiring a Mercedes "Intelligent Drive" "NHTSA Level 2" (collision avoidance + pedestrian + recognition + steering assist + lane keeping + vehicle following) could be expected to reduce claims by at least 50% (and deliver substantial capacity improvements NY-NJ commuter operations). This package is currently priced at $2,800. Inclusion of these elements in the 2015 bus procurement specifications could be expected to incur a similar incremental price. If so, the RoI is less than a year. Even if one assumes that such technologies, when applied to buses might command a factor of 3 premium, the RoI, just from a safety liability standpoint is extremely short relative to the life of the bus. Moreover, the capacity and operational improvements are free. A complete no-brainer!
AAA: Voice-to-text devices worse driver distraction than cell phones An in-depth scientific study from AAA finds that using voice-to-text electronic devices is a far greater distraction for drivers than talking on cell phones, even if they are hands free. The study measured brain waves and reaction times of drivers, both in driving simulators and on real roads, in order the measure the comparable levels of distraction. Full story by CNN
Measuring Cognitive Distraction in the Automobile WASHINGTON, D.C., (June 12, 2013)–Hands-free technologies might make it easier for motorists to text, talk on the phone, or even use Facebook while they drive, but new findings from the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety show dangerous mental distractions exist even when drivers keep their hands on the wheel and their eyes on the road. Full story by AAA Public relations
Measuring Cognitive Distraction in the Automobile AAA Foundation Report
My comment: The most effective way to alleviate the safety aspects of cognitive distractions on driving is for the rapid adoption of Level 2 and above smart driving technologies in all new vehicles and the retrofitting of vehicles equipped with electronic steering, braking and throttle actuators with the sensing and compute technology to certify them as Level 2+ vehicles. The sooner Level 2 technologies populate the vehicle fleet, the sooner we will eradicate the driver distraction problem. If these technologies are not adopted, then Draconian measures aimed at disabling wireless devices in vehicles can be expected "Regulators". For more comments see my talk @ the 20th annual meeting of ITS-NY.
CMU Cadillac SUV Driving Itself Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have joined the quest to develop a driverless car. And at first sight, the Cadillac looks like any other SUV on the road. According to Professor Raj Rajkumar and his Carnegie Mellon team, the Cadillac prototype is the most advanced example of driverless technology yet produced. Full story by Capitol Hill Daily
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
The Premier Road Vehicle Automation Event in North America. July 16-19, '13 Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA Transportation Research Board's premier multidisciplinary research and policy conference focused on Road Vehicle Automation. If you are actively involved in road vehicle automation and would like to actively contribute to the success of this conference by becoming a patron or sponsoring one of the meals, please contact me at alaink@princeton.edu.
June 26-28, Gold Coast, Australia
NHTSA Preliminary Statement of Policy Re: Automated Vehicles contains the details of this preliminary policy. I highly recommend that you read it. My interpretation: http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/CommentOnNHTSA_PrelimStatement.pdf
Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012 Not a pretty picture. Early estimates show a 5.3% increase in fatalities over '11 to 34,080 due to a very large YoY increase in Q1 (12.6%) and a an extremely large increase of greater than 15% in the Northeast region. While some of this may be attributable to increased VMT, Fatalities per VMT also increased. http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/EarlySafetyFacts2012NHTSA.pdf
"Intelligent Drive: networked with all senses
The Road Ahead: Advanced Vehicle Technology and its Implications
May 15 2013 2:30 PM Russell Senate Office Building - 253