2013-08-23

August 23, 2013Newsletter archive →

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/SDC082013.pdf

Final Report of Orf 467 F'12 "Uncongested Mobility for All NJ"

Available for Download (15M) Slide Presentations (123M ppt)

My students and I have been conducting a quantitative assessment of the mobility implications of autonomous Taxis (aTaxis), the ultimate in Smart Driving Cars. The task was simple: How well could a truly safe fleet of self-driving cars serve the demand for personal mobility? Rather than just focus on the mobility needs of cities, or suburbs the decision was to assess the full spectrum of today's land uses. New Jersey was selected not only because we live here, but also because it embraces essentially all uses of land from extremely rural farms and preserved spaces, through a wide variety of suburban developments to both old and new high density urban living….Table 1 below summarizes how each and every of the 32+ million person trips that take place on a typical weekday can be served efficiently and effectively. Short trips (a 10 minute walk or less) are served by Walking & Cycling (with Door2Door aTaxi service is provided to elderly and handicapped). All other trips are served by the appropriate combination of aTaxis and NJ Transit's existing commuter rail lines. To appropriately serve all of the 30+ million daily non-walk/cycle trips, a fleet of about 1.8 million aTaxis would be needed. (In 2010, 3.9 million cars were registered in NJ plus an additional 2.5 million trucks.) At peak hours state-wide average vehicle occupancies reach the 3.0 level while during most off-peak times average vehicle occupancies are very close to 1.0. In those off-peak times few people wish to travel between the same places at the same time so that there is very little opportunity for trips to coincidentally share an aTaxi. Because the aTaxis provide excellent demand-responsive service to and from NJTransit rail stations, many trips (almost 5 million) are best served by aTaxi <-> Rail multi-modal combinations. In fact NJ Transit's rail system plays a part in serving over 6 million trips each day, more than 20 times what it currently served today. This is a reflection of the large amount of activity that takes place within a short walk of NJT's train stations, if only there existed an efficient system, like aTaxis, to bring passengers to/from the station at the other end of the trip.

Table 1. Trips by mode on typical weekday in New Jersey (requiring about 1.8 million aTaxis)

Item
Walk & Cycle
to/fr NYC
to/fr PHL
Train Only
aTaxi + Train
aTaxi Only
Rail
Total aTaxi
Total
Total Trips
Trips/Day (in Millions)
1.94
0.9
0.2
1.3
3.7
24.82
6.1
29.6
32.86
% Daily Trips
5.9%
2.7%
0.6%
4.0%
11.2%
75.5%
18.6%
90.1%
100%

Much more interesting than Musk's Publicity Stunt. Also, back in about 1975 Larry Edwards walked into my office and proclaimed.. "Alain!!.. I have this great idea of evacuated tube transport. In fact we could build an underground version from NYC to SF with a parabolic profile so that we can benefit from gravity in both the initial acceleration and the final deceleration. It would be extremely high speed, low energy and environmentally attractive. To build the tunnel we could detonate low grade nuclear weapons to create the tunnel along the way, basically using the experience gained in underground nuclear testing." I just shook my head in amazement. Alain

(video of Luxembourg Demonstration) A university in Singapore is to latest to trial the world's first electric driverless shuttle. It's expected that the autonomous vehicle will soon be shuttling passengers between the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) and JTC Corporation's (JTC) CleanTech Park. In a partnership between NTU, JTC and Induct Technologies, and supported by the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB), the vehicle will regularly be used over the two kilometer route in a two year trial. Read more While only 12.5 mph, it is the next step beyond the La Rochelle demo and moving along one evolutionary chain by dealing with the mixed element: pedestrians. Alain

a driverless 8 passenger robotized shuttle

Perfect for transportation in city centers. Its design brings out new technologies in robotics applied to the automobile. Ideal for pedestrian areas or private campuses, such as airport parking, shopping malls, business parks, and universities, Navia can provide an on-demand, personalized transportation solution in areas that existing transportation cannot reach. NAVIA is equipped with laser range finders, cameras and a software package developed by INDUCT that allows it to move autonomously and safely in any environment. The propulsion system uses Lithium-Polymer batteries and a 15" instant induction recharging system at each stop.

Reports on: Semi Autonomous Market For Passenger Car By Type (Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Keep Assist, Autonomous Park Assist & Adaptive Lights), By Technology, By Geography, & Autonomous Car (Qualitative Trends & Technologies) – Global Trends & Forecast To 2018 Table of Contents I have not purchased a copy, so I can't comment. Alain

"…Shannon McDonald, an assistant professor of architectural studies, was one of the founding organizers of the Transportation Research Board's Road Vehicle Automation Conference last year. She was also part of organizing the second conference, held in July, at Stanford University in California. This year's conference attracted twice as many people as expected. Perhaps the highly anticipated availability of the Google self-driving car attracted professionals and academics in greater numbers. Or perhaps it is the increasing awareness that driverless cars really are on the drawing board -- and soon. Google, a pioneer in driverless technology, used the conference to reaffirm its commitment to public Level 4 vehicles in mixed traffic by 2018. Level 4 refers to "full self-driving automation," according to categories established by the National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration. The reason an architecture professor is heavily involved in discussions of driverless vehicles is simple -- transportation links directly to architecture, with the two swapping influences throughout history, she said. "Now that automated vehicle technology is coming into our world, it will dramatically impact how we design our buildings, cities and towns," McDonald said"…" Read more

"…experts such as Ümit Özguner, a professor with Ohio State University's Center for Automotive Research, are predicting that the first wave of operational autonomous vehicles will be devoted to long-haul deliveries. This is about moving cargo, not people. "The trucking industry is very interested in going from single trucks to convoys of trucks. One human driver with perhaps three other trucks behind it," Özguner told TechHive. "Those three wouldn't necessarily have a driver in them. Eventually you could imagine removing the first driver too."…" Read more Hmm… Only way that happens is if driverless trucks becomes a way to circumvent existing long combination vehicle vehicles. There are very few markets with similar origin, destination and time windows such that requires more than two 53' trailers to serve the demand. The biggest motivator for the long-haul motor carrier industry is if the driverless function can extend a driver's hours of service, thus allowing the driver to better feed his/her family by achieving more miles during each day and gain more productivity from the truck hardware (miles/yr). Alain

"1) No More Drivers; 2) No More Accidents; 3) No More Driving Etiquette; 4) No More Traffic Tickets; 5) No More Car Ownership ...I believe driverless cars will become shared vehicles. Sharing cars can mean less traffic, more available parking spaces, a cleaner environment, and fewer fatal car accidents. In addition, I found a study estimating that traffic congestion wastes over 4.8 billion hours of productivity…" Read more Another member of the choir. Alain

KEITH CRAIN editor-in-chief of Automotive News:"…It is hard to imagine anything more complicated than trying to make cars and trucks drive themselves. Not only will it require putting a lot of technology into the vehicle; it will mean a lot of new technology for the infrastructure as well. …" Read more. Hmm… I simply disagree, Alain

"There is little doubt Google's driverless car and other technologies under development by manufacturers will transform the future of U.S. transportation. But, how will these innovations impact the design and construction of highways and bridges? …Executives from IBM, Microsoft, the Automobile Manufacturers Alliance, public and private sector transportation construction professionals, and other thought leaders will explore these issues October 28-30, 2013 during the American Road & Transportation Builders Association's (ARTBA) Dr. J. Don Brock TransOvation Workshop, held in San Jose, CA…" Read more Hmm… a central purpose of Google-type driverless cars is that they ask nothing from the roadway infrastructure other than maybe simply better paint so I suspect the impact will be "business as usual", but they may be very creative. They have a unique point of view and it is good that they at least recognize that the technology may in fact be real. Alain

"Volvo's City Safety Autonomous Emergency Braking system ensures its new cars are now cheaper to insure. Why? Because this technology – that has been retrofitted to a range of existing models – helps a motorist avoid or lessen the severity of a low speed collision. How? By monitoring the road ahead via a laser and braking if there is a hazard the driver makes no effort to avoid. As such, this system reduces the probability of the motorist making an insurance claim…" - See more at: http://www.motoring.co.uk/car-news/volvo-cars-now-cheaper-to-insure_56807

Presentation made to Texas Tech Task Force, July 31, 2013. Very interesting, especially Slide 9: Hmm... I went to the Cadillac configurator and tried to build an ATS with these safety features. Unfortunately they don't seem to be available in any of the models; or I should say, I couldn't find them. The ATS model Overview doesn't even have a tab for Safety. The XTS does have a tab for Safety; however, the Standard model doesn't seem to offer these options, but the Luxury version (Standard+$4,615) has "Alert" Safety options as part of its "Luxury" upgrades. On the Premium model (Luxury+$4,895) there is a different set of Safety features (Auto Collision Prep & Auto F/R Brake) but not the ones listed for the Luxury (Alert features)..?? On the SRX the Driver Assistance Package is $2,395 (requires Driver Awareness Package @ $445) but I have to buy a Luxury version or better (+$5k over the Standard) to have the safety package available. These Safety packages were certainly not easy for me to find on the configurator (except, if listed they were at the bottom of the options list) so I went and talked to my local Cadillac salesman. Depressing! He was essentially clueless. Whew!!! I guess Cadillac doesn't believe that these features can sell cars. These features are well hidden, if available at all. I wonder of what salesman training Cadillac has done to promote the adoption of these ( what I believe are wonderful) safety features and what the take-up rate has been to date (essentially zero???). Alain

2013-08-23

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Jules Verne and Alfred Ely Beach 150 years ago

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