2013-09-06

September 06, 2013Newsletter archive →

2013

The market for Collision Warning Systems may well be developing in a manner similar to that of turn-by-turn navigation where consumer-grade after-market systems are cheaper and better than "factory installed" versions sold as options with new cars. The popularity and adoption of navigation systems was fueled by their availability to all car users as inexpensive stand-alone Personal Navigation Device (PND) that could be used in any car or as less expensive, even "free", application programs that leverage the capabilities of one's existing device, be it a notebook, tablet, iPad, or smartphone. Mobileye is out with what I'd like to call a "Personal Collision-warning Device" (PCwD). It is a self-contained unit that uses embedded stereo cameras to monitor the road ahead and warn the driver of forward collision, pedestrian collision, lane departure and read speed limit signs. At a price of just under $850 it is substantially cheaper than comparable systems available as options on new cars. More importantly, the product is available to everyone, not just buyers of a few models of new cars. Given the universal desire to "text" and the allure of other distractions while driving, everyone needs the help of a PCwD to be constantly vigilant of potential dangers ahead.

While this is the first such device, I see Collision-warning Systems following the market adoption path blazed by Navigation Systems. The main difference here is that stereo cameras have replaced the GPS receiver. The user interface, computing and memory are each essentially the same. Other producers with their own image processing (routing software), object recognition (digital maps) and user interfaces will emerge and propel the market adoption of PCwDs. At some point, communications with some evolution of the "OBD II" port could be established with the car's electronic throttle, brake and steering systems to create a PCaD that provides active Collision-avoidance (Ca) and lane-keeping rather than simply collision-warning.

The final step would be to merge the PCaD with the turn-by-turn navigation system to create the ultimate new product category, the Personal Driverless-car Device (PDcD) that could behave as a Valet or as a Chauffeur and allow you to catch a few zzzz. Whew! Alain

See following videos for more information:

2013_Commercial_Teen
About Mobileye Links to Videos of individual capabilities available @ https://us.mobileye.com/products/mobileye-560/

Tuesday 3 September, 2013. The Green Piece Column: "..; This year 'green' is so 2007 and the new buzzword is 'autonomous'... While previous international motoring shows like Frankfurt's have had a very eco-focus about them, with the manufacturers falling over themselves to show off their latest electric and hybrid concepts, this September's show could have a very different feel about it..." Read more Very interesting... Alain

(http://www.vtpi.org/avip.pdf) by Todd Litman, Victoria transport Policy Inst. 08/26/13.

ABSTRACT: This report explores the implications of autonomous (self-driving) vehicles on transportation planning. It identifies their potential benefits and costs, predicts their likely development and deployment patterns, and how they will affect transport planning decisions such as road and parking supply and public transit demand. The analysis indicates that some benefits, such as independent mobility for affluent non-drivers, may begin in the 2020s or 2030s, but most impacts, including independent mobility for low-income people (and therefore reduced need to subsidize public transport), reduced traffic congestion and parking demand (and therefore facility cost savings), increased traffic safety, energy conservation and pollution reductions, will only be significant when autonomous vehicles become affordable and represent a major portion of total vehicle travel, in the 2040s through 2060s, and some benefits may require prohibiting human-driven vehicles on certain roadways, which could take even longer. Read more.

I highly recommend this reading; however, it is for the most part a "conventional personal automobile" perspective in that it doesn't look at the "public transit" aspect of the technology (except for a brief mention of "shared-use", where the shared use is in the context of a personal automobile rather than a "shared-ride" perspective). As such essentially all of the benefits that are presented can be realized without the need for "Level 4" (driverless) technology. Indeed, there probably isn't much of a market for personally owned driverless (Level 4) cars. To me, the real value of driverless is being able to reposition the vehicle without anyone in it. That value can be captured most readily by a fleet manager that needs to position vehicles to where the next trips begin rather than letting them sit around and wait where the last trip ended for the next person to use it. While this capability exists today, it is delivered at a very high cost by taxi and limousine companies. Conventional transit can't afford to deliver a comparable demand responsive service. Optimal use of labor dictates scheduled fixed route service that requires travelers to conform to the service offering, rather than the service offering conforming to the traveler's needs. Once the labor cost is removed from fleet management, repositioning costs are reduced substantially. This allows the operator to inexpensively reposition vehicle assets to the next trip, thus conforming the service to the traveler's needs. If the demand is somewhat correlated naturally or by cost-effective incentives, then the fleet owner (aka Public Transit Company), whose financial reward is to serve trips, will be able to serve multiple travelers on the same vehicle. It is this shared ride potential that would enable such services to compete financially with the private car while offering a service that is equivalent if not better (no parking or ownership hassles). Achieving an average vehicle occupancy (AVO) of 2.0 would offer such a fleet owner a substantial business case to offer such a "public transit" service. At an AVO of 3.0 it would be a gold rush. Alain

American Society of Civil Engineers ISBN: 9780784412985 "...Prepared by the Automated People Mover Standards Committee of the Standards Council of the Transportation and Development Institute of ASCE. Topics include: operating environment; safety requirements; system dependability; automatic train control; audio and visual communications; vehicles; propulsion and braking; electrical equipment; stations; guideways; security; emergency preparedness; verification and demonstration; operations, maintenance, and training; and operational monitoring..." Read more

Priced $125.00 List / $93.75 ASCE Member it is probably the starting point for those that address the certification and standards issues that will need to be addressed in preparation of offering a driverless-car transit alternative. Alain

September 2, 2013 "...Nokia on Friday announced Here Auto, their first push into a smarter vehicle platform. Noting the growing rift between automobiles and smart devices, Nokia's Here Auto is expected to be their first push into building software to be used by the driverless cars of the future.

Just like its namesake, Here Auto delivers maps and other navigation information to the car's in-dash infotainment system. Going beyond maps, Here Auto companion apps will deliver music and social experiences as well as let drivers check their gas tank and tire pressure from their smartphone.

While the first iteration of Here Auto may be technologically behind any autonomous car, Nokia aims to use this system as a proverbial foot in the door as car makers begin to seriously weigh their driverless offerings. Here Auto delivers some convenient features, but the plan is to lay down the first pieces of a system which will one day integrate in the future "smart city" and allow the car to communicate with other vehicles and a variety of connected things..." Read more

Hmm... It may also be technologically irrelevant. Seems to me that a serious communications platform that supports driverless cars needs to be built around elements that enable its driverless functions rather than travelTainment (music, gossip (aka social experiences; check my tire pressure from my iPhone??? C'mon Man!). While driverless, these cars will need supervisory management as well as "health" monitoring, certification and software synchronization. Let's start with the important stuff. Prof. K.

Also: Microsoft Gets Nokia Units, and Leader Nick Wingfield Published: September 3, 2013 "...Microsoft will pay about $5 billion for Nokia's devices and services business and $2.18 billion to license Nokia's patents. After it sells its high profile handset operations, Nokia will be left with three primary businesses: network infrastructure and services; mapping and location services; and a technology development and licensing unit..." Read more Hmm... On Oct 1, 2007 Nokia bought NavTeq for $8.1B (Nokia Buys Navteq For $8 Billion, Bets Big On Location-Based Services : "...the Finnish mobile giant has a mixed track record when it comes to acquisitions...") which now remains with Nokia. While it might have a "mixed track record" with acquisitions it may well have an even worse record when it comes to its base business. Alain

by Stephen Shankland, September 3, 2013: "...A new world beckons in which urban transit networks will be able to warn about road conditions or adjust road speeds to relieve traffic congestion...The first phase of the technology works within an individual vehicle, detecting slipperiness and warning drivers based on data from the car. But it gets more interesting when multiple vehicles report back to a central station that can track trouble spots on the roads..." Read more And all can be done by the private sector without any government "DSRC" mandate or snooping. Alain

by Dean Seal Tuesday, September 3, 2013 Automated driving is stepping closer to reality, and Virginia Tech is researching with Google to make it safer. A small crowd gathered Tuesday afternoon at the Smart Road at Virginia Tech Transportation Institute (VTTI) to watch as Rep. Morgan Griffith and Rep. Bob Goodlatte, of the 9th and 6th districts respectively, boarded the automated-driving Google car. Read more video

August 30, 2013

"...Pickrell and Pace have identified some new, likely causes of reduced VMT. Gasoline prices have risen sharply since 2005 and are much more volatile compared to the late 1990s, when it hovered at about $1.00 per gallon. "Also, young people have more education debt now, so it's harder for them to afford a car," explained Pace. "This situation is exacerbated by the difficulty of finding a job."

The decline in VMT does not appear to be a result of shifting to other modes: gains in transit, biking or walking, and teleworking each account for only about 1% of the recent decline in VMT, and e-shopping has reduced vehicle use by less than expected because it requires more truck travel to deliver purchases.

The economy's effect on VMT is seen by the fact that declines in driving for all ages mirror recent declines in the employment rate for each age group, although even employed people are driving slightly less than they did a decade ago. The sharpest declines in income since the early 2000s have been concentrated among lower-income households, whose driving habits are most sensitive to income changes." Read more Mobility is changing even without SmartDrivingCars. What is even more interesting are the slides from their presentation Alain

August 27, 2013

Nissan will be ready with revolutionary commercially-viable Autonomous Drive in multiple vehicles by the year 2020
Program underway in Japan to construct first dedicated, purpose-built autonomous drive proving ground
The goal is availability across the model range within two vehicle generations
Video of Nissan Announcement
Video of Interview with EVP Andy Palmer about announcement

Read more This announcement certainly raises the bar for the auto companies. First we have Mercedes introducing "Intelligent Drive" with automated lane keeping in today's 2014 S-Class, followed by Google reaffirming at last month's TRB/Stanford Vehicle Automation Conference that they will have driverless ("Level 4") cars commercially available by 2018. Now today, a major auto manufacturer, Nissan, announces that they will have "commercially-viable Autonomous Drive in multiple vehicles by the year 2020" and the NTSB head says that collision avoidance systems should be required. Next week Alberto Brioggi will show his video of his PROUD car and show that he has a car today that can drive itself. This is really getting serious. What are BMW, Volvo, Cadillac, Tesla, Ford, Subaru, Lexus, Hyundai, VW... going to do to leapfrog these initiatives? Alain

Prof Broggi's presentation is essentially the only presentation at the whole conference on Smart Driving Cars. There is a DoT workshop but it seems to be focused on connected vehicles and one panel session on Wednesday "Releasing the Steering Wheel: Learning to Let the Car Drive by Itself" Oh well! At least there is Alberto's talk and his participation in the one panel. Alain

August 20, 2013

Available for Download (15M) Slide Presentations (123M ppt)

My students and I have been conducting a quantitative assessment of the mobility implications of autonomous Taxis (aTaxis), the ultimate in Smart Driving Cars. The task was simple: How well could a truly safe fleet of self-driving cars serve the demand for personal mobility? Rather than just focus on the mobility needs of cities, or suburbs the decision was to assess the full spectrum of today's land uses. New Jersey was selected not only because we live here, but also because it embraces essentially all uses of land from extremely rural farms and preserved spaces, through a wide variety of suburban developments to both old and new high density urban living….Table 1 summarizes how each and every of the 32+ million person trips that take place on a typical weekday can be served efficiently and effectively. Short trips (a 10 minute walk or less) are served by Walking & Cycling (with Door2Door aTaxi service is provided to elderly and handicapped). All other trips are served by the appropriate combination of aTaxis and NJ Transit's existing commuter rail lines. To appropriately serve all of the 30+ million daily non-walk/cycle trips, a fleet of about 1.8 million aTaxis would be needed. (In 2010, 3.9 million cars were registered in NJ plus an additional 2.5 million trucks.) At peak hours state-wide average vehicle occupancies reach the 3.0 level while during most off-peak times average vehicle occupancies are very close to 1.0. In those off-peak times few people wish to travel between the same places at the same time so that there is very little opportunity for trips to coincidentally share an aTaxi. Because the aTaxis provide excellent demand-responsive service to and from NJTransit rail stations, many trips (almost 5 million) are best served by aTaxi <-> Rail multi-modal combinations. In fact NJ Transit's rail system plays a part in serving over 6 million trips each day, more than 20 times what it currently served today. This is a reflection of the large amount of activity that takes place within a short walk of NJT's train stations, if only there existed an efficient system, like aTaxis, to bring passengers to/from the station at the other end of the trip.

2013-09-06

Personal Collision-warning Device (PCwD) Available at under $850

Calendar of Upcoming Events:

Prof. Alberto Broggi, Univ. of Parma will present the PROUD2013 event on Sept 3, 2013 in Las Vegas, NV, as the plenary opening of the IEEE Vehicular Technology Conference. See the updated video!

Draft Final Report "Uncongested Mobility for All NJ"