2013-12-22
December 20, 2013
A Pilot Project to Safely Test Autonomous Vehicles
Proposal Number: 13-MTO043 Posting Date: Dec. 17, 2013 "MTO recognizes the importance of new vehicle technology, especially if it can expand mobility options for Ontarians. Safety is a top priority however and thus the ministry reviews all new vehicle types and technology to determine whether they are safe for Ontario's roads.
This proposal is a first for Canada and provides an excellent opportunity to showcase Ontario as a leader in technology development with the potential to attract new business opportunities. In addition, it will allow the ministry to proactively evaluate and determine how these vehicles can be safely integrated with other road users prior to them becoming widely available to the public, which manufacturers indicate could be in the near future." Read more See also: A Pilot Project to Safely Test Autonomous Vehicles and Notice of Release – A Pilot Project to Safely Test Autonomous Vehicles Comments are due Feb 24, 2014. Alain
The Self-Driving Car Will Watch Your Every Move
Davide Santo 12/20/2013 "...There needs to be mechanisms in place that allow the car to know when and how much control to relinquish to the driver based on our physical and emotional states...Cars will need to be outfitted with a network of sensors -- seatbelts that monitor heart rates and breathing, steering wheels that measure skin temperature, eye movement tracking that senses gaze, pupil dilation, and even spatial orientation of the driver's head. Voice recognition software will detect your mood as you interact with the car's infotainment and navigation systems...." Read more as well as the comments.
Hmmm...Well, maybe, at some distant end-state; however, this can't be on the "critical path". Let's put first things first. A car that is self-driving some of the time is a Self-Driving car. A car that drives itself all of the time is a Never-Drive car. A Self-Driving appeals to consumers that desire a choice "to drive or not to drive", at least some of the time. "Never-Drive" cars appeal to consumers that Never want to drive. Not only do Self-Driving cars appeal to a much larger consumer population, they are easier to achieve. Initially, they don't need to monitor the driver, they only need to monitor the nearby roadway environment and determine if "Self" is capable of driving for a while. If all is well, then "Self" can continue to drive. If things become challenging, then "Self" can offer to let "me" take over or "Self" will slow down or pull over and stop. That's what we do now (or should do) when we get tired or approach fog or... Development resources should be focused on having "Self" do a better job of monitoring the neighboring and upcoming road environment and to better anticipate the driving opportunities ahead.
There are many "easy" driving environments. Most of the Interstate highway System is uncongested most of the time. Bicycles and pedestrians are prohibited. Let's start by developing "Self" to properly transition in and out and perform well in these "easy" environments. Make these initial systems available on the market. Consumers can respond and, if there is some appeal, more development will be warranted to evolve "Self". Alain
"The New Killer Apps
How Large Companies Can Out-Innovate Start-Ups" by Chunka Mui and Paul B. Carroll Now Available Highly Recommended. See also Chunka's Dec. 19 Forbes article Will The Google Car Force A Choice Between Lives And Jobs? My my question would be: what happened to all of the elevator operators that had "good" jobs. One still exists at Tiffany, but the others? "Manhattans" are better today because of the elevator's automation. See also the comments, especially Dick Mudge's. I might add that his observation of "...universal use of GPS." likely caused a significant loss of jobs at paper map companies such as Rand-McNally (at one time, one of the most-recognized brand names) but the created many better jobs at places such as ALK. :-) Alain
Application of Autonomous Driving Technology to Transit
Presentation by Jerome Lutin and Alain Kornhauser at 2013 Annual meeting of ITS-NewJersey @ Met Life Stadium, Dec. 16, 2013. Slides 35 & 36 outlines a substantial proposal for advancing SmartDrivingTransit. Alain
Driverless Cars Aren't a Threat to Progressive
by Brendan Mathews, The Motley Fool Dec 8th 2013 "A Wall Street bigwig is currently claiming that driverless cars could put Progressive out of business. In fact, his firm is betting money on the demise of the entire auto-insurance industry. Supposedly, safer, driverless cars will eliminate accidents and the need for insurance. After considering the argument and looking at some data, I don't think betting against Progressive based on driverless cars is a very solid thesis....He assumes that if cars are safer, insurance premiums will be lower. But if you look at the data, that's not the case.
Cars have been getting safer for years, yet insurance premiums continue to grow. Between 1999 and 2012, total traffic deaths decreased 20% and fatalities per mile driven have decreased 27%. Yet over the same period, total liability premiums have increased 48% and total collision/comprehensive premiums have increased 22%. In other words, despite major, continual improvements in automobile safety, total insurance premiums have increased as cars on the road, drivers, miles driven, car prices, and accident liability have combined to push up the total market for car insurance...." Read more
Hmm .. I agree with Mathews, but for very different reasons. Cars have been getting "safer" and insurance premiums have been going up. That's because of the way that cars have been getting "safer". The Injury intensity has decreased to occupants of cars involved in accidents; the number of collisions/accidents has not reduced substantially. While those involved in accidents are less severely injured, their medical cost and vehicle repair costs have not decreased. Consequently, this accident mitigation approach to "safety" has forced the insurer to either increase premiums or settle for decreased profits. Worse, this accident mitigation view of "safety" has encouraged the auto buyer to prefer big SUVs in an "out barricade oneself" approach to "safety". A more sane approach to "safety" is for insurers to encourage the adoption of active collision avoidance systems that not only mitigate crashes but, more importantly, avoid crashes. The good news for insurers is that crash avoidance will reduce claims faster than insurers will reduce rates. By encouraging their customers to adopt these technologies insurers will be rewarded with higher profits.
Also, driverLess means that driver drive Less, not Never. DriverLess cars will still need insurance as will driveNever cars. Alain
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
2014 TRB 93rd Annual Meeting
January 12-16, 2014
Washington, DC
42nd Annual Princeton University Transportation Program Reunion Banquet
January 14, 2014
Washington, DC
Recent Versions of:
December 13, 2013
Millennials Pushing Development of Driverless Vehicles
Also be certain to read the actual Accenture Survey results. Alain
December 6, 2013
December 1, 2013
Amazon's Jeff Bezos'86 looks to the future
Sunday, December 1, 2013 CBS New, 60 Minutes "... But during our visit to Amazon's campus in Seattle, Bezos kept telling us that he did have a big surprise, something he wanted to unveil for the first time…
Jeff Bezos: Let me show you something.
Charlie Rose: Oh, man…Oh, my God!
Jeff Bezos: This…
Charlie Rose: This is?
Jeff Bezos:…is…these are octocopters.
Charlie Rose: Yeah?
Jeff Bezos: These are effectively drones but there's no reason that they can't be used as delivery vehicles. Take a look up here so I can show you how it works.
Charlie Rose: All right. We're talking about delivery here?
Jeff Bezos: We're talking about delivery. There's an item going into the vehicle. I know this looks like science fiction. It's not.
Charlie Rose: Wow!
... Read more See video starting @ 11:00. Beyond SmartDriving Cars? Very interesting! Alain
November 22, 2013
Auto Correct: Has the self-driving car at last arrived?
by Burkhard Bilger November 25, 2013: An absolutely great article featuring Anthony Levandowski, Product Manager, Google Self-Driving Car and more. A MUST read. Alain
Florida Automated Vehicles Summit
November 14 – 15, 2013, Marriott Waterside Hotel, Tampa, FL. This was an excellent conference. I highly recommend that each State do something similar in terms of form, substance and commitment. This Summit had the right balance of in-state and out-of-state presenters. The 1.5 day format was perfect. Most everyone was there for the entire program. The exchange and discussion between the podium and the audience was excellent. All contributed and learned. The focus went beyond personal cars to encompass commercial freight and near term opportunities to test and begin to deploy driverless transit vehicles in Florida's many retirement communities. Alain
November 08, 2013
Clifford I. Nass'81,*86 expert on human/computer interactions, dead at 55
Tragic!! What a terrible loss. We have all taken an enormous step backwards. His simulator. Alain
alaink@princeton.edu