2014-05-29
May 29, 2014
Just press go: designing a self-driving vehicle
Posted: Tuesday, May 27 “Ever since we started the Google self-driving car project, we’ve been working toward the goal of vehicles that can shoulder the entire burden of driving. Just imagine: You can take a trip downtown at lunchtime without a 20-minute buffer to find parking. Seniors can keep their freedom even if they can’t keep their car keys. And drunk and distracted driving? History.
We’re now exploring what fully self-driving vehicles would look like by building some prototypes; they’ll be designed to operate safely and autonomously without requiring human intervention. They won’t have a steering wheel, accelerator pedal, or brake pedal… because they don’t need them. Our software and sensors do all the work. The vehicles will be very basic—we want to learn from them and adapt them as quickly as possible—but they will take you where you want to go at the push of a button. And that’s an important step toward improving road safety and transforming mobility for millions of people. ..” Must watch video Read more
Well… hats off to Google on another giant step forward towards self-driving cars! There is real substance here and this is another giant step forward. Since the speed is limited to 25 mph and the vehicles are small, the application is probably limited to some retirement community in California; however, such a demonstration will go a long way towards validating the safety and reliability of the concept and should get many influential people believing that this is all a real possibility rather than a pipe dream. Hats off!
Now just because Google has fired the first shot across this bow, doesn’t mean that they’ve won the Race2Driverless race and everyone else should pack it in. Their Nexus One was a pretty nice early smartphone, yet some of us still have iPhones and my Nexus One is still unused in its original box. They’ve now put the driverless concept really out there in everyone’s face. Let’s see who responds and who really wins the evolving commercialization battle. To me, Google’s Achilles is its dependence on its maps. Similar to iPhone’s dependence on iOS. You can’t get one without the other and iOS is not made available to anyone else. A good attempt at creating a monopoly by Apple, possibly a similar attempt by Google with Driverless cars. However, I remain of the opinion, that in the end, seeing and recognizing in real time trumps indexing into Google’s massive database. We’ll just all have to wait and see how things evolve.
Another aspect of this announcement is that it is clearly focused on those that really do not want to drive. The very young and the very old are substantial markets. At least for some time, say the Street’s quarter ahead, the bulk of the market will still want to have the choice to drive. Removal of the controls is really “show”; however, having the choice to not drive is the “go” for the consumer car buying market. That means that you can’t remove the controls. For the fleet mobility provider market, aka “Public Transit”, a two-seater may well be the size sweet-spot. More than 50% of today’s trips have no ride-sharing opportunity a small percentage share with more than one other person, a few with 2 or three. Very few with more than 3. However, handling those large ride-sharing opportunities is important for congestion mitigation, so I expect that a range of vehicle sizes will evolve, just as exists in today’s car market.
Finally, because over 90% of the a typical day’s 1 billion trips across the USA are less than 30 miles, the bulk of the driverless vehicle fleet that will someday serve this market can readily be electrically propelled. Managing the recharging of the fleets between trips will be trivial thus relieving the fleet from the range burden. Again… Hats off! Alain
City of Vantaa one of the seven European towns and cities to demonstrate automated transport
7.5.2014 “The European project CityMobil2 has selected the first round of sites to run large and small-scale demonstrations and showcases of automated road transport systems….” Read more CityMobil2 didn’t bother to wait for Google. There is competition in this Race2Driverless.
Alain
The Major Design Flaws in Google’s New Self-Driving Car
“…The great design thinker Don Norman told WIRED in 2012 that the experience of driverless cars should be rooted in our intuitions about how the objects in our lives already behave. He argued that a driverless car’s experience should begin with the four-legged vehicle that preceded it: the horse. Norman thought that horses offered an almost magical blend of control and autonomy: You could urge it in a certain direction, or you could encourage it to go faster, but the path was at the animal’s discretion. Thanks to its own instincts, you couldn’t urge a horse over a cliff. “Even when you’re in control,” he said, “the horse is still doing the low-level guidance, stepping safely to avoid holes and obstacles.” Read more especially the WIRED 2012 Alain
Google Glass legislation introduced in Illinois
May 27 “Days after Google Glass hit the US market, lawmakers in Illinois are considering efforts to combat what some warn is the next wave of distracted driving.
Creators of the $1,500 wearable computer say it is designed to make driving safer by assisting with navigation, monitoring speed, and alerting users when they appear too tired to drive. “…C’Mon Man! … But Illinois legislators have introduced a bill that would ban the use of Google Glass on the road, describing the technology as a potentially deadly disruption.” Yea!
Google is spending big to sway lawmakers about the usability of the device, which remains in beta mode though it is now available to the public…” Read more
Hmm… Rather than spending money to “sway lawmakers..” Google should spend even more on their Self-driving car to counter-act the “potentially deadly disruption”. Above, I applauded their efforts and they should be joined by Verizon, AT&T, Apple and all of the travelTainment industry to solve the problem that they are creating by advancing the state of the art of SmartDrivingCars. Alain
Should Cities Limit the Number of Rideshare Cars?
J.B. Wogan May 5 “Seattle recently became the first city to limit the number of rideshare cars. City Councilwoman Sally Clark talks about the controversial regulations that have since been suspended. “Read more All of this has implications and is a lead-up to the deployment of Diverless Cars Alain
Computer History Museum Launches New Exhibit on the History of Autonomous Vehicles
MOUNTAIN VIEW, CALIF., May 8 “The Computer History Museum (CHM) announced today the launch of a new exhibit on the history of autonomous vehicles. The exhibit is called “Where To? A History of Autonomous Vehicles” and it chronicles the decades-long challenge of bringing self-driving cars to the general public. Self-driving cars have remained perpetually “two decades away” since the 1930s, while over the past century, autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles have conquered the air, sea, and roamed the edges of our solar system…” Read more
Universities team up to develop fully autonomous car
RYUTA KURATOMI, KITA-KYUSHU–Three universities opened a research center here May 1 to jointly develop the car of the future–a self-drive vehicle with artificial intelligence. The 27 researchers slated to take part in the development of the automated car hail from the Kyushu Institute of Technology, the University of Kitakyushu and Waseda University. Read more… More competition… 100 years ago there were 100 car companies. Alain
MINTC to launch an experiment that would allow for robotic cars
Press release 26.05.2014 “The Ministry of Transport and Communications is preparing an amendment to the Road Traffic Act that would allow for driverless robotic cars to drive within a restricted area on public roads. The act in question would constitute experimental legislation that would be in force for five years starting at the beginning of 2015…” Read more
Functional Safety Critical for Autonomous Cars
Junko Yoshida 5/20 “ ..the industry-wide discussions on how best to comply with ASIL, a process described in the ISO 26262, have only begun. Every component, ranging from foundries to chips, chip modules, and software, needs to be certified to meet a specific ASIL level…” Read more Details! can’t forget about ‘em. Alain
Half-baked stuff that probably doesn’t deserve your time:
Uber will eventually replace all its drivers with self-driving cars
“Uber, which is rumored to be raising funds at a valuation of $17 billion…” This is Tesla-type Hype! Can you imagine how much competition Uber will have once Driverless cars are on the market. Every buyer of a Driverless car becomes an incremental competitor at zero marginal costs. (Software cost is essentially zero to manage my Driverless car to generate revenue when I’m not using it. This is Jitneys without labor costs. Owners use their cars less than one hour a day. That means that those cars are each potential Uber competitors 23 hours a day. It may be that the only reason to purchase a Driverless car is as a revenue source for those 23 hours at zero cost of entry. C’mon Man! Alain
Actuaries Grapple with Insurance Questions on Self-Driving Cars
When Driverless Cars Break the Law
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
2014 IEEE Intelligent Vehicles Symposium
June 8 - 11, 2014, Dearborn, Michigan, USA
Sponsored by the IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Society
http://www.auvsi.org/avs2014/register
Invitation ONLY
Save the date
September 6th, 2014 in Detroit
Recent Versions of:
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May 22, 2014
Update on my “997” Package
Since I walk to work, I haven’t had the opportunity to test my Mercedes “997 package” every day; however, it has assisted me around New Jersey’s jug-handled roads as well as the NJ Turnpike, Garden State Parkway, I-195 and 295 as well as longer trips on the PA Turnpike, I-81 and I-95 and earlier
more
May 13, 2014
Autonomous Vehicles: Handing Over Control: Opportunities and Risks for Insurance
Gillian Yeomans, Lloyd’s Exposure Management “…The insurance industry’s expertise in risk management will be a factor in the adoption of autonomous … technology. In an area where regulation and safety standards are yet to be developed, insurers can encourage prudent progress by making their own risk assessments and providing policies for responsible operators. There is an opportunity for insurers to engage in the transfer of new risks, making it possible for continued technological innovation. This technological innovation may give rise to new business opportunities, with corresponding opportunities for insurers….“Read more Nice to see Lloyd’s weigh in here. Alain
May 2, 2014
Who Is at Fault When a Driverless Car Gets in an Accident?
John Villasenor Apr 25 2014 “It may seem odd, but we already have the laws we need for dealing with this inevitable situation.” Read more especially the source report:
Products Liability and Driverless Cars: Issues and Guiding Principles for Legislation
April 18, 2014
Newly Available Drafts of Recent Student Theses
Wyrough, Alexander Penn Hill Jr.: A National Disaggregate Transportation Demand Model for the Analysis of autonomous Taxi Systems
Included is one synthetic realization for each of the 308.7 Million individuals contained in the 2010 Census and each of the 1.01 Billion trips {oLat, oLon, oTime, dLat, dLon} these individuals were synthesized to have made on a typical weekday in October. Persons are organized in individual Home County Files (All 186,49 persons that lived in Peoria County, Il., or the 1,585,873 persons that lived in Manhattan, for example). Trips are available in files for each person residing in a county (with many trips diffusing into other counties, states and even countries) as well as by oCounty (the 649,781 trips that originate in Peoria County or the 8,085,055 trips that originate in Manhattan, many of which are made by 1.5 million persons that don’t live in Manhattan.). For example, one can get all the trips made by the residents of Manhattan or by all trips originating in Manhattan. The user is left with the task of finding all trips that either originate, terminate or go through Manhattan. Note, trips to work where the work place was greater than 200 miles from the home location were routed via the nearest major airports. Alain
Sun, Zhuyi (Judy): Causal Price Discrimination: An Analysis of the Healthcare Costs Associated with Motor Vehicle and Transportation Collisions
Rhodes, Brandon Xavier: An Analysis of Economically Efficient Insurance Schemes for Automated Vehicle
April 11, 2014
Hands-On: 2015 Hyundai Genesis Flirts with Autonomous Driving
By Scott Schaen on April 7, “…Lane keep assist worked very well if you’re slow to make a slight turn. It doesn’t work for the bigger turns. Similarly, smart cruise control and the automatic emergency breaking system would slow you down a lot, but it won’t bring you to a complete stop. They’re SAFETY features; they’re not intended to auto-drive (yet)…” Read more
April 4, 2014
Webinar on the 3DV product
Thursday, March 27, 2014 Video of Webinar. Excellent presentation by Prof. Alberto Broggi Alain
March 28, 2014
Millennials & Mobility: Understanding the Millennial Mindset
“…millennials, with their relative propensity for urban lifestyle components (whether they live in cities or in suburbs), dexterity with technology, while starting careers during economically constrained times can leave a lasting impact on society….” Read more
March 21, 2014
Toyota Is Fined $1.2 Billion for Concealing Safety Defects
By BILL VLASIC and MATT APUZZO MARCH 19, 2014 “Eric H. Holder Jr., the United States attorney general, talked in impassioned tones on Wednesday about Toyota’s behavior in hiding safety defects from the public, calling it “shameful” and a “blatant disregard” for the law. A $1.2 billion criminal penalty, the largest ever for a carmaker in the United States, was imposed. Read more
Hmmm… As I wrote last week with respect to GM, the industry can not respond in this manner during the evolution of SmartDrivingCars. “Defects” are inevitable, as will improvements to the systems. In fact, instead of a “defect recall”, the industry might create a “performance enhancement” recall process where software upgrades and some hardware upgrades may be made to the systems to improve their performance. The industry might/should be able to charge for these improvements. This would be like installing new and better “wiper blades”. Not that the old ones didn’t work, the new ones work better. And the industry could charge for it. A whole new revenue source. Your SmartDrivingCar could get a real “tune up”. :-) Alain
March 14, 2014
303 Deaths Seen in G.M. Cars With Failed Air Bags
By DANIELLE IVORY and HILARY STOUT MARCH 13, 2014 “As lawmakers press General Motors and regulators over their decade-long failure to correct a defective ignition switch, a new review of federal crash data shows that 303 people died after the air bags failed to deploy on two of the models that were recalled last month…Read more
Hmmm… This is tragic for many reasons; however, we in the SmartDrivingCars world need to learn very clear lessons… More importantly (and as is obvious to the most casual observer) we can’t wait for “…303 victims…” of the “we didn’t think of that” problem to occur before we fix it…. Alain
March 7, 2014
http://www.apple.com/ios/carplay/
Hmmm. Just what we need in our cars, an easier way to be distracted from driving. Maybe this should be called “Apple CarCrash”. Alain
New Jersey Rail Ridership Opportunities If a Taxis Are Available…
A.L. Kornhauser, et al March, 2014 “…. Examined are the rail ridership opportunities that NJ Transit (NJT) might enjoy if autonomous Taxis (aTaxis) were available to readily bring customers to or from its rail stations. Such collection and distribution services would not only shower NJT with new customers but they would enable NJT to redevelop its parking facilities to more profitable “Transit Village” uses. Read more
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