2014-06-10
June 10, 2014
If Robots Drove, How Much Safer Would Roads Be?
Claire Cain Miller, June 10 “ Human error is the culprit in 93 percent of automobile crashes – including the pileup last weekend that left Tracy Morgan in critical condition, caused, prosecutors say, by a truck driver who had been awake for 24 hours (see following)… But two studies by researchers at Virginia Tech — H. Clay Gabler, a professor of biomedical engineering, and Kristofer D. Kusano, a research associate — suggest how much safer robot cars might be. They found that even cars that are not fully autonomous but that automate some of the most dangerous aspects of driving could have as big an effect as seatbelts have had…Read more
Hmm… The studies:
Thomas I. Gorman, Kristofer D. Kusano, and Hampton C. Gabler “Model of Fleet-wide Safety Benefits of Lane Departure Warning Systems”. “…The expected reduction in road departure crashes due to LDW is estimated to be 30.3%. The expected reduction in injuries that are caused by LDW applicable crashes is estimated to be 25.8%…” Read more
Kusano, K., Gabler, H., and Gorman, T., “Fleetwide Safety Benefits of Production Forward Collision and Lane Departure Warning Systems,” SAE Int. J. Passeng. Cars - Mech. Syst. 7(2):2014, doi:10.4271/2014-01-0166. “…The 16 FCW systems evaluated could have potentially prevented between 9% and 53% of all rear-end collisions and prevented between 19% and 60% of injured (MAIS2+) drivers….For LDW systems, the 10 systems tested had similar benefits if distance to the lane marking was used as the metric for delivering the warning. For all vehicles, the number of crashes prevented varied from 29% to 32% and the number of injured (MAIS3+) drivers prevented varied from 25% to 27%. LDW benefits are more sensitive to Time to Lane Cross (TTLC) as a metric for warning delivery. The number of crashes varied from 13% to 47% and the number of injured drivers varied from 10% to 42% when TTLC was the metric used to deliver the LDW. This result suggests that future LDW tests should consider TTLC as a metric in addition to distance to lane cross….” Read more
Driver Charged in Crash Involving Tracy Morgan Had Not Slept in 24 Hours, Prosecutors Say
J. DAVID GOODMAN JUNE 9, “The Walmart driver whose truck collided with a van carrying the comedian Tracy Morgan and other performers had not slept for more than 24 hours before the crash, New Jersey prosecutors said on Monday….A preliminary police investigation found that Mr. Roper had failed to perceive slow-moving traffic ahead of him, and, at the last minute, swerved in an attempt to avoid a collision. The complaint did not explain how the New Jersey State Police determined that Mr. Roper had been sleep deprived… Walmart …believed Mr. Roper “was operating within the federal hours of service regulations,” which limit work shifts to 14 hours, with only 11 of those behind the wheel. Read more
Hmmm… this is enormously tragic because existing collision avoidance technology could have likely avoided this accident altogether even if Mr. Roper had not slept for 48 hours or was in complete compliance with all “hours of service regulations”. Even if Mr. Roper had not slept for 24 hours, tougher hours of service regulations would not have prevented this accident. What would have prevented this accident would be the application of collision avoidance technology on this truck. If Walmart somehow feels indisposed by this accident and wants to react constructively, Walmart should contribute to the advancement of collision avoidance technology and insist that all trucks moving their goods be equipped with such technology! In fact, calling this an accident may well be a misnomer; maybe we should call it irresponsibility on Walmart’s part for not insisting that the trucks serving their stores have this technology. The cost of this technology may well evolve to be more than offset by the reduction in truck insurance expense. In other words, Walmart would not be indisposed and save money. That doesn’t sound like an accident to me. It sounds like fiduciary (and societal) irresponsibility on the part of Walmart.
Of course, Walmart is not the only business that relies on long haul truckers to supply goods to its stores. The Tracy Morgan collision should be a wake up call for businesses that rely on large trucks on US roads every day driven by drivers operating under pressure on deadlines. Now that collision avoidance technology is available, Walmart and other businesses should insist that their logistics partners use trucks equipped with this technology. They will save money in the long run and lives in the short and long runs. Alain
New NHTSA Study Shows Motor Vehicle Crashes Have $871 Billion Economic and Societal Impact on U.S. Citizens
NHTSA 19-14 Wednesday, May 28 Press Release “…a new study that underscores the high economic toll and societal impact of motor vehicle crashes in the United States. The price tag for crashes comes at a heavy burden for Americans at $871 billion in economic loss and societal harm. This includes $277 billion in economic costs – nearly $900 for each person living in the United States based on calendar year 2010 data — and $594 billion in harm from the loss of life and the pain and decreased quality of life due to injuries…Read more of Press Release. Read source report, below is shorter USA Today version. Hmmm…Report looks OK; note, 2/3rds of the amount is Societal and insurance seems to cover only 50% of the 1/3rd, or 1/6th ~$125B. There are a number of critical assumptions in the report, especially having to do with “unreported crashes”. (One is baffled that in 2010 there are still unreported crashes that have a significant economic and societal impact, anyway…) What to me seems more troubling is the repeated inclusion of tables of numbers for which most of the numbers that are printed in the table are totally dominated by the uncertainty in the estimation process used in generating the numbers. I can see reporting the exact count of records in some database because that number is reproducible; however, displaying a number with 6 digits that was estimated from a model whose reliability is at most only two significant digits simply cast doubt on the quality of the whole report. Alain
Staggering toll: Car crashes cost $871 billion a year
Shorter version of the above. Alain
Intel Capital Announces Investment in ZMP Inc.
TOKYO, Japan, May 7, 2014 – “Intel Capital, Intel Corporation’s global investment and M&A organization, today announced an investment in ZMP Inc. (“ZMP”), a leading developer of autonomous driving technologies, based in Tokyo, Japan. Details of the investment were not released. The investment was made from the Intel Capital Connected Car Fund and will be used to help ZMP accelerate the development of autonomous and assisted driving technologies.” Read more Hmmm… That’s more like it, Intel. Alain
Mercedes Doesn’t Want You To Forget Its Autonomous Car Development: Video
By Viknesh Vijayenthiran “Google has received a lot of attention for its autonomous car development, likely because of its size and progress in the area as well as the fact that it’s one of the key players outside the auto industry working on the technology. However, that doesn’t mean the major automakers are behind the curve.
One of the leaders is Mercedes-Benz, which was the first automaker to launch a car with autonomous steering capability in the form of its 2014 S-Class sedan. But this is just the start as Mercedes is working on a fully autonomous car, just like Google, and even presented its own prototype last year.” Read more The video is long but worth watching if you haven’t watched the other MB videos. Way too much reliance on mapping (and I consider myself a map guy.) Alain
Sentosa could be a trial site for driverless car fleet
“SINGAPORE: The plan to have driverless cars in Singapore is on track - with the resort island of Sentosa being a potential trial site. Sentosa is in talks with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to roll out the trial, which involves self-driving buggies. This was revealed at a World Cities Summit forum on Tuesday (June 3). “ Read more
June 2014 Newsletter Message from our CEO
Message from our CEO “Every now and then I like to take a few minutes to reflect on current events and share our perspective.”
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Half-baked stuff that probably doesn’t deserve your time:
The UK will have to wait for Google’s cartoonish driverless car
“…The only controls inside the prototype vehicle will be a start/pullover button and a large red emergency stop button. There will be no steering wheel or manual control….” Read more …C’Mon Man…no one really believes that each of these cars won’t be capable of being driven by a human using an “Android smartPhone” if need be. I’m certain that there will be a training manual to allow more normal people to control the vehicle should it be out of cell coverage. They should also be able to control it remotely a la “drone” control. They will have many ways to move the car including pushing it. When Google says “completely driverless” they don’t mean “completely” in a pure mathematical sense. They mean it in a marketing-buzz, Tesla-hype sense. :-) Alain
The Connected Car and The Future of Transportation
Worse than half-baked. Intel focuses on creating the problem rather than solving it (except at the very end as an afterthought. Shame on you Intel). Also: New Intel Products, Investments and Research for Connected Cars and Autonomous Driving Alain
A City Built to Test Self-Driving Cars Will Open Up Its Streets This Fall
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
http://www.auvsi.org/avs2014/register
Invitation ONLY
Save the date
September 6th, 2014 in Detroit
Recent Versions of:
May 29, 2014
Just press go: designing a self-driving vehicle
Posted: Tuesday, May 27 “Ever since we started the Google self-driving car project, we’ve been working toward the goal of vehicles that can shoulder the entire burden of driving. Just imagine: You can take a trip downtown at lunchtime without a 20-minute buffer to find parking. Seniors can keep their freedom even if they can’t keep their car keys. And drunk and distracted driving? History.
We’re now exploring what fully self-driving vehicles would look like by building some prototypes; they’ll be designed to operate safely and autonomously without requiring human intervention. They won’t have a steering wheel, accelerator pedal, or brake pedal… because they don’t need them. Our software and sensors do all the work. The vehicles will be very basic—we want to learn from them and adapt them as quickly as possible—but they will take you where you want to go at the push of a button. And that’s an important step toward improving road safety and transforming mobility for millions of people. ..” Must watch video Read more
May 22, 2014
Update on my “997” Package
Since I walk to work, I haven’t had the opportunity to test my Mercedes “997 package” every day; however, it has assisted me around New Jersey’s jug-handled roads as well as the NJ Turnpike, Garden State Parkway, I-195 and 295 as well as longer trips on the PA Turnpike, I-81 and I-95 and earlier this week to more
May 13, 2014
Autonomous Vehicles: Handing Over Control: Opportunities and Risks for Insurance
Gillian Yeomans, Lloyd’s Exposure Management “…The insurance industry’s expertise in risk management will be a factor in the adoption of autonomous … technology. In an area where regulation and safety standards are yet to be developed, insurers can encourage prudent progress by making their own risk assessments and providing policies for responsible operators. There is an opportunity for insurers to engage in the transfer of new risks, making it possible for continued technological innovation. This technological innovation may give rise to new business opportunities, with corresponding opportunities for insurers….“Read more Nice to see Lloyd’s weigh in here. Alain
May 2, 2014
Who Is at Fault When a Driverless Car Gets in an Accident?
John Villasenor Apr 25 2014 “It may seem odd, but we already have the laws we need for dealing with this inevitable situation.” Read more especially the source report:
Products Liability and Driverless Cars: Issues and Guiding Principles for Legislation
April 18, 2014
Newly Available Drafts of Recent Student Theses
Wyrough, Alexander Penn Hill Jr.: A National Disaggregate Transportation Demand Model for the Analysis of autonomous Taxi Systems
Included is one synthetic realization for each of the 308.7 Million individuals contained in the 2010 Census and each of the 1.01 Billion trips {oLat, oLon, oTime, dLat, dLon} these individuals were synthesized to have made on a typical weekday in October. Persons are organized in individual Home County Files (All 186,49 persons that lived in Peoria County, Il., or the 1,585,873 persons that lived in Manhattan, for example). Trips are available in files for each person residing in a county (with many trips diffusing into other counties, states and even countries) as well as by oCounty (the 649,781 trips that originate in Peoria County or the 8,085,055 trips that originate in Manhattan, many of which are made by 1.5 million persons that don’t live in Manhattan.). For example, one can get all the trips made by the residents of Manhattan or by all trips originating in Manhattan. The user is left with the task of finding all trips that either originate, terminate or go through Manhattan. Note, trips to work where the work place was greater than 200 miles from the home location were routed via the nearest major airports. Alain
Sun, Zhuyi (Judy): Causal Price Discrimination: An Analysis of the Healthcare Costs Associated with Motor Vehicle and Transportation Collisions
Rhodes, Brandon Xavier: An Analysis of Economically Efficient Insurance Schemes for Automated Vehicle
April 11, 2014
Hands-On: 2015 Hyundai Genesis Flirts with Autonomous Driving
By Scott Schaen on April 7, “…Lane keep assist worked very well if you’re slow to make a slight turn. It doesn’t work for the bigger turns. Similarly, smart cruise control and the automatic emergency breaking system would slow you down a lot, but it won’t bring you to a complete stop. They’re SAFETY features; they’re not intended to auto-drive (yet)…” Read more
April 4, 2014
Webinar on the 3DV product
Thursday, March 27, 2014 Video of Webinar. Excellent presentation by Prof. Alberto Broggi Alain
March 28, 2014
Millennials & Mobility: Understanding the Millennial Mindset
“…millennials, with their relative propensity for urban lifestyle components (whether they live in cities or in suburbs), dexterity with technology, while starting careers during economically constrained times can leave a lasting impact on society….” Read more
March 21, 2014
Toyota Is Fined $1.2 Billion for Concealing Safety Defects
By BILL VLASIC and MATT APUZZO MARCH 19, 2014 “Eric H. Holder Jr., the United States attorney general, talked in impassioned tones on Wednesday about Toyota’s behavior in hiding safety defects from the public, calling it “shameful” and a “blatant disregard” for the law. A $1.2 billion criminal penalty, the largest ever for a carmaker in the United States, was imposed. Read more
Hmmm… As I wrote last week with respect to GM, the industry cannot respond in this manner during the evolution of SmartDrivingCars. “Defects” are inevitable, as will improvements to the systems. In fact, instead of a “defect recall”, the industry might create a “performance enhancement” recall process where software upgrades and some hardware upgrades may be made to the systems to improve their performance. The industry might/should be able to charge for these improvements. This would be like installing new and better “wiper blades”. Not that the old ones didn’t work, the new ones work better. And the industry could charge for it. A whole new revenue source. Your SmartDrivingCar could get a real “tune up”. :-) Alain
March 14, 2014
303 Deaths Seen in G.M. Cars With Failed Air Bags
By DANIELLE IVORY and HILARY STOUT MARCH 13, 2014 “As lawmakers press General Motors and regulators over their decade-long failure to correct a defective ignition switch, a new review of federal crash data shows that 303 people died after the air bags failed to deploy on two of the models that were recalled last month…Read more
Hmmm… This is tragic for many reasons; however, we in the SmartDrivingCars world need to learn very clear lessons… More importantly (and as is obvious to the most casual observer) we can’t wait for “…303 victims…” of the “we didn’t think of that” problem to occur before we fix it…. Alain
March 7, 2014
http://www.apple.com/ios/carplay/
Hmmm. Just what we need in our cars, an easier way to be distracted from driving. Maybe this should be called “Apple CarCrash”. Alain
New Jersey Rail Ridership Opportunities If a Taxis Are Available…
A.L. Kornhauser, et al March, 2014 “…. Examined are the rail ridership opportunities that NJ Transit (NJT) might enjoy if autonomous Taxis (aTaxis) were available to readily bring customers to or from its rail stations. Such collection and distribution services would not only shower NJT with new customers but they would enable NJT to redevelop its parking facilities to more profitable “Transit Village” uses. Read more
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