2014-10-03
October 1, 2014
Mercedes-Benz sends autonomous automobiles onto the USA’s most extensive testing ground
Sunnyvale, Calif., Oct. 1, 2014 /PRNewswire/ – “As one of the first automobile manufacturers permitted to do so, Mercedes-Benz has been testing autonomously driving automobiles on public roads in the US state of California since September. In addition, the company will from now on also use Concord Naval Weapons Station (CNWS), the largest test bed site in the US, for further testing of its future technology.
“We can use the test site in Concord, California, to run simulation tests with self-driving vehicles in a secure way, including specific hazardous situations”, explained Dr Axel Gern, head of autonomous driving at Mercedes-Benz Research and Development North America, Inc. (MBRDNA). “Taken in conjunction with the results of our test drives on public roads, these tests will help us with the ongoing development of our autonomous cars.” The focus of research nevertheless continues to lie on the tests undertaken in a real-life environment, he emphasized….” Read more Hmmm I’m learning that the concept of using “Fort Monmouth” to test automated vehicles is a common concept. Alain
Honolulu Is Building America’s First Fully Driverless Transit System
“….With the first trips planned for 2017, the $5.2 billion Honolulu Rail Transit Project ..this will also be the first fully automated wide-scale urban transit system in the United States. Instead of human drivers, a centrally-located computer system will control stops, departures, and speed, and even open and close doors. Operation will be cheaper than for manually-driven rail, says Grabauskas, and he also expects it to be safer….” Read more Hmmm… Hopefully they’ll take advantage of the automation and operate only single car “non-trains” so as to maximize “frequency of service” at all times (Instead of “four-car” trains. Seems like they are stuck with “non-automated” mentality.) Oh well, I didn’t say anything!?!? Alain
ZF-TRW ‘playing in a new league’
September 22, 2014 David Sedgwick “The era of autonomous vehicles is close at hand – and is already changing the industry in fundamental ways.
The latest and biggest example? Last week, ZF Friedrichshafen announced it would acquire TRW Automotive for $13.5 billion, one of the largest supplier acquisitions in history.
With carmakers working furiously to develop driverless vehicles, the suppliers that can produce the needed technology are starting to look like a very exclusive – and powerful – club.
Bosch, Continental and Denso were poised to dominate the market, but now ZF-TRW has joined them. The German supplier said the deal gives it a niche in the fast-growing market for collision-avoidance technology. ..” Read more
GM To Pour All Resources Into Single Car That Can Be Safely Driven Down Street And Back
Sep 25, 2013 DETROIT—”In what is being hailed as a potential game-changer for the beleaguered automotive giant, General Motors announced Thursday that it plans to pour all its resources into a single car that can be safely driven down the street, turned around, and then driven back.
According to CEO Mary Barra, GM will harness every means at its disposal…” Read more Hmmm dated and only sort of funny when one adds “driverless” in front of “car”. I guess I shouldn’t be adding humor at the expense of GM. Alain
Half-baked stuff that probably doesn’t deserve your time:
California Is A Long Way From Driverless Cars, Consumer Watchdog Tells Insurance Commissioner; Urges Focus On Immediate Concerns Of Privacy And Auto Safety
Oct. 2, 2014 “…Consumer Watchdog said that despite a high profile public relations campaign by Google and other high-tech firms suggesting that a driverless car system is just around the corner it will be decades – if ever – before fully autonomous, driverless vehicles replace the personal responsibility model, based on a driver at the wheel…” Read more Hmmm a couple of things: 1. “aftermarket”, and 2. while the title includes safety, there is little advocacy or urgency placed on automated collision avoidance and lane keeping, both of which should be the technology focus of the insurance industry. Alain
Georgia could be first to have driverless cars
Rachel Stockman FAYETTE COUNTY, Ga. —”Georgia could become one of the first states to test driverless cars on local county roads.
Fayette Commission Chairman Steve Brown confirmed to Channel 2 Action News that he’s talked to Google about bringing the technology to the county…” Read more
Driverless Cars: How will insurers be affected?
Cherry Chan, Partner, Barnett Waddingham”… What insurers can do to prepare for driverless cars
So, although the future looks bright for the driverless technology, it may take years to incorporate the driverless cars into our everyday lives and so, it may be a while until we see the main effects on insurers. Andrew Miller, chief technical officer at Thatcham research, asserted that individual drivers insurance will remain “for a long time to come”. Although we may have raised more questions than answers, as an insurer, it is essential to think about the future impact and effects of the introduction of autonomous vehicles. The insurers who are able to make use of the increasing volumes of data and that build policies to recognize the shifts of risk are likely to rapidly move ahead of their competitors and should find opportunities to make a profit in a very competitive market.” Read more Hmmm Or… it could well be that by the time the data “recognizes” the shift, they will be on the backs side of the curve headed for bankruptcy. Alain
NSF grant to examine using autonomous vehicles to improve traffic flow
“…research collaboration, with Temple Assistant Professor of Mathematics Benjamin Seibold as the principal investigator, has just been awarded a three-year, $1 million grant from the National Science Foundation’s Division of Computer and Network Systems.
“For the purpose of our research project, autonomous vehicles are those that conduct their velocity control—car following, acceleration and deceleration—in an automated fashion,” said Seibold. “These vehicles collect a lot of data about the environment around them in order to operate safely, and in principle, these data can be communicated from one vehicle to another.” Read more Whatever
C’mon Man!
(These folks didn’t get/read the memo):
The Connected Car Addresses Congestion and Safety Challenges
Steven Keeping”…The IoT promises to improve the driving experience and save lives. However, in order to fully unlock this potential, a wide range of barriers need to be addressed, including security, safety, regulation, lack of cross-industry standards, widely varying industry dynamics and life cycles, and limited initial addressable market sizes. So while the future for the connected car is undoubtedly bright, the highway to its introduction is covered with speed bumps.” Read more Just the wrong approach. Thank goodness for the barriers. Alain
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
Invitation ONLY
Inaugural Automated Vehicle Summit @ Fort Monmouth
Bringing together the Region’s Decision Makers to Cooperatively Accelerate the Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDrivingCars Trucks & Buses
Organized by Tony Kuczinski, CEO, Munich Re, Alain Kornhauser, Prof., Princeton U., Bruce Steadman, Exec. Dir. Ft. Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority (FMERA)
Save the date (Invitation only)
October 3, 2014 in Ft. Monmouth, NJ
Invitation ONLY
Thanks to the hard work of Richard Bishop and many others we had a VERY fruitful meeting and I will link the presentations in SDC once they are available. We look forward to the 19th meeting in Bordeaux. Alain
September 6th, 2014 in Detroit
Recent Versions of:
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October 1, 2014
Self-driving cars: California regulators probe insurance questions
Patrick Hoge Sep 15, 2014 “Self-driving cars are bearing down on California’s future, and state Department of Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones wants insurers and regulators to prepare now for their eventual arrival.
To that end, Jones hosted a public hearing at the Tech Museum of Innovation in San Jose Monday morning to gather data about what automated vehicle technology will look like.
A variety of legal and insurance experts testified, as well as a consumer rights advocate. Alain Kornhauser, a Princeton University professor of operations research and financial engineering, was enthusiastic about the potential for automated driving technologies to improve safety, unburden drivers and lower insurance costs.
Varying levels of the technology will be applied in different settings, he said. Commercial fleets, for example, could be more amenable for fully automated uses, while average drivers might use some sort of hybrid, that allows drivers to assume control when needed, he said.
Kornhauser pointed out that some automated technologies are already in widespread use, notably anti-locking brakes and stability controls that prevent drivers from turning too rapidly.
“What’s important is that these systems take over automatically and counter what I am doing wrong,” Kornhauser said. “They don’t warn. They don’t ask for permission. I can’t turn them off. They just do it.”…” Read more
Hmmm…
It was a really good session: Video of hearing; hearing’s agenda; background paper; my 5-minute prepared remarks; extended remarks by Prof. Robert Peterson. Alain September 8, 2014
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The New Commute Mark Svenvold “…Tomorrow’s transportation solutions will be about learning to share…
“Cars arrived and waited for riders,” Minett wrote of the Oakland commuters he observed. “Riders came and got into their cars, usually two per car on a first-come first-served basis. I saw partners arrive with partners, kiss, and part. Some waited to make sure that their partners got off safely; others left without a backward glance.” He noted that more than half of the people commuting that morning were female. Two women were walking their dogs. “One got a ride, the other carried on with the dogs.” The scene he was describing, in other words, was completely quotidian: “I saw an original VW Beetle, and a lady who got into it with a huge suitcase, and they still took a second passenger.” Later on, in a coffee shop, Minett was able to conjure his quarry in greater relief. “I’d witnessed,” he says in a YouTube video about that moment, “a community of unconnected people who share a solution to their real need and are not afraid to share their trip with a different driver or rider each day.” It was, he says memorably, “a silent transit system that is based on trust.”… Read more
Hmmm… Our studies at Princeton suggest that autonomous taxis will empower high-quality demand-responsive service at a very low price to exist everywhere by facilitating the sharing of rides when and to where there exists a natural concentration of demand; else, lonesome, solitary service will be available to places, at times, when there simply isn’t anyone else around that wants to make that trip. Much like elevator service today, except horizontally from many places to essentially anywhere else. In our studies of spatial and temporal distributions of trip demand as exists today in New Jersey, such systems can double the productivity of today’s cars, yet offer essentially the same (or in the view of some, a better) level of service. This means that energy consumption is halved, as is pollution. Congestion is essentially eliminated. Alain August 25, 2014
C’Mon Man!
(These folks didn’t get/read the memo):
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards: Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) Communications
“This document initiates rulemaking that would propose to create a new Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS), FMVSS No. 150, to require vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication capability for light vehicles (passenger cars and light truck vehicles (LTVs)) and to create minimum performance requirements for V2V devices and messages.. “
Hmmm…
Fundamental problem is for V2V to have any chance of working of avoiding a crash between two vehicles is for both to have the communications. The probability that both vehicles have V2V doesn’t become greater than chance (0.5) until the technology is installed and working in greater than 70% of all vehicles. That level of market penetration will take at least 10 years after this is mandated for every new car that rolls off the assembly line. Moreover, even if both cars are equipped, the regulations require only that there be a warning given to the drivers. As if the drivers will know what to do if the warning is given soon enough. To give the warning soon enough, will invariably increase the false alarm rate, which in itself is likely to cause some accidents that would not have occurred and irritate some drivers to clip the wires as some have done with installed theft alarms. Furthermore, NHTSA recognizes that these systems will not be effective if drivers are impaired (page 266).
Given that 32 % of driving fatalities involve alcohol-impaired driving, none of these will be saved.
So after more than 10 years of the mandate we will be at <68% non-impaired of the <50% of market penetration of the <??% that haven’t clipped their wires of the <???% that are properly working of the ????% drivers that perform the correct collision avoidance maneuver minus the number of additional accidents that have been cause by false alarms. This number may not even yet be above zero! I agree…” NHTSA believes that V2V capability will not develop absent regulation, because there would not be any immediate safety benefits for consumers who are early adopters of V2V”.
Yet, if NHTSA instead “mandated” or encouraged/focused-on automated collision avoidance and automated lane keeping systems, then each of these systems would deliver some immediate safety benefits to each consumer, irrespective of any other vehicle having the system. Some benefit would also be delivered if the driver became impaired. Moreover, insurance may be willing and able to pay for much of this technology. Seems that this is the low hanging fruit. What am I missing here? Why is the sunk investment in V2V seemingly all that is steering the NHTSA ship? Alain August 18, 2014
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Beijing orders first driverless metro trains
Keith Barrow 08/12/14 “…Northern Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation (CNR) has been awarded a contract to supply a fleet of 60 driverless trains for the first metro line in Beijing to be equipped for Unattended Train Operation (UTO).
The 10-station Yanfang Line will run for 15.2km from an interchange with the Fangshan Line at Cheliangduan station to Raolefu, where the line will divide into two branches serving Zhoukoudianzhen and Yanhua. Commercial services are expected to begin in December 2015…Read more
Hmmm…
Even a country that needs to properly employ 1.5 billion people sees the fundamental virtue of Unattended Train Operation (UTO). Hopefully the US railroad industry will also see the virtue of leapfrogging PTC with UTO (GoA 4). Alain
August 7, 2014
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Mobileye Record IPO Defeats Global Selloff as Shares Soar
Gabrielle Coppola Aug 4, 2014: “…Mobileye NV (MBLY), which makes software to avoid car accidents, overcame the worst global stock-market sell-off in almost five months to raise $890 million last week, a record for an Israeli company going public in the U.S….” Read more Congratulations!! Alain
The shares soared 48 percent to $37 in New York on their first day of trading on Aug. 1 after the company and existing shareholders sold 35.6 million shares for $25 each, according to a Mobileye statement. That was above the high end of the $21 to $23 marketed range.
July 21, 2014
Princeton Announces Creation of Automated Vehicle Research Center @ Ft. Monmouth focused on automated collision avoidance for transit buses (and trucks and cars)
At last week’s Automated Vehicle Symposium, Professor Alain Kornhauser announced that Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) has created a new Research Center for Automated Vehicles @ Fort Monmouth. The announcement was made as part of a Wednesday hospitality session sponsored by PAVE. The aim of the Session was to begin to formulate the vision for collaboration on automated vehicle research, certification and commercialization that will be conducted at the unique facilities available at “The Fort”.
PAVE’s new Center will re-purpose designated Fort facilities to establish a demonstration technology municipality with automated vehicle technology and new forms of mobility as its priority.
PAVE’s Center will be located on a 25 acre parcel containing over 100,000 sq. ft. of class A office space as well as two major garage facilities that can support transit bus and class 8 truck activities.
The site includes an 80-acre parcel containing a network of streets and buildings that can be configured for closed-course testing of urban and suburban driving situations. We are proud to announce that Michael Sena, a renowned transport technology architect/planner, residing in Sweden, has agreed to take the lead to properly configure this test facility. Also available to the research team will be the network of streets serving the remainder of the two square mile facility that can be managed to provide “half-way house” testing of automated driving in a mixed environment with conventionally driven vehicles operating under normal conditions. Read more
On Wednesday, October 3, 9:00am -> 1:00pm an Automated Vehicle Summit will be held at the newly created Center for Automated Vehicles bringing together those interested in joining together to crystallize the Center’s vision, mission, plans and agenda related to automated vehicles. The Summit is by invitation only. For more information, please email Dr. Alain L. Kornhauser alaink@princeton.edu
Alain July 08, 2014
‘Driverless’ trucks become reality: Daimler unveils prototype, dubbed Highway Pilot
Jack Roberts July 3 “…Speculation about autonomous — or “driverless” — vehicles has been commonplace in the trucking industry for years. Now, Daimler has made this concept a reality…
The truck, a specially-equipped Mercedes Actros tractor-trailer, is fitted with front-facing radar sensors and cameras to scan the road ahead. Both systems are tied into a Lane Keeping Assist system. Additional sensors track areas to the sides and rear of the truck to provide the system with a complete view of the vehicle’s surroundings.
Daimler says the new sensors are so precise they can not only recognize the road edge by marker lines, but even identify the course of the road surface by detecting guardrails or vegetation.” Read more Watch Video Hmmm…
Be sure to see video!!! Here we go! This unveiling of a serious driverless truck by Daimler is perfect timing for the Commercial Vehicle breakout session next week at the Automated Vehicle Conference in San Francisco. The focus of that breakout session is to discuss the implications of what Daimler has unveiled. It should be a fantastic break-out session. There are at least two other breakout sessions for which this unveiling has strong implications: The Transit breakout since there really isn’t much difference between the Daimler truck and a transit bus and the Commercialization breakout because without market adoption of the Daimler vision none of the benefits of the vision are captured by society. Alain
Will Driverless Cars Fuel Cheap Insurance?
Mark Chalon Smith, June 26, “…A CarInsurance.com survey of 2,000 licensed motorists found that only about 20% would happily switch to autonomous cars if they became readily available. The other 80% said they just don’t feel comfortable with the technology.
But what if insurance rates would drop significantly in a world with much fewer accidents caused by hapless drivers? More than a third said an 80% cut in premiums, which has been predicted by some analysts, would make it “very likely” that they’d buy a driverless car, and 90% said they would at least consider the possibility….” Read more Be sure to look at the survey summary. It is 6 month old, but probably still good. Alain June 23, 2014
In wake of Tracy Morgan crash, rising truck fatalities lead to new scrutiny
Ted Sherman/The Star-Ledger June 15 “The Wal-Mart truck that slammed into a chauffeured van carrying comic Tracy Morgan on the New Jersey Turnpike just over a week ago was state-of-the-art.
According to company officials, its high-tech cab was equipped with sophisticated collision-avoidance systems that included forward-looking radar with interactive cruise control — all designed to begin automatically braking the big truck when it sensed traffic slowing down.
It was programmed to notify the driver of any vehicles stopped ahead in the roadway. There was an on-board computer, blind spot sensors, and electronic controls limiting its top speed to 65 miles per hour….” Read more
Hmm… I wrote last Tuesday as to how the Tracy Morgan Accident needs to be wake-up call to Walmart and other shippers and carriers (see below) to install automatic collision avoidance systems. I will repeat it again here in this special post. While Walmart might feel that it had done all it can by having what it calls a “high-tech cab”, its truck was in fact a very low-tech cab. Something like having a PrincessPhone relative to an iPhone5. The “interactive cruise control” only begins to automatically brake when it senses traffic slowing down (doesn’t bring the truck to a complete stop if the traffic ahead stops AND it needs to have been actively engaged by the driver to work at all!). Moreover…“programmed to notify the driver of vehicles stopped ahead”, but NOT programmed to automatically stop the truck before hitting the stopped traffic ahead.
While subtle, these are VERY important differences between a “PrincessPhone” cab and a “SmartPhone” cab! Walmart’s and the trucking industry’s focus MUST be on automatic collision avoidance, automatic lane centering and beyond, not simply useless warnings. I applaud Walmart for taking a first baby step, but it needs to up its game substantially!
US DoT also needs to take notice with respect to its V2V and connected vehicle initiatives.
These initiatives have been timidly focused on warnings rather than automatically avoiding the accidents. I understand that the government fears resistance to its efforts to intervene, as it should. And it certainly hasn’t wanted to acquire the responsibility.
However, warnings are simply insufficiently effective. Maybe government should step aside and let someone else accept the responsibility, someone like the insurance industry. Accepting responsibility is in fact their fundamental business. Alain April 18, 2014
Newly Available Drafts of Recent Student Theses
Wyrough, Alexander Penn Hill Jr.: A National Disaggregate Transportation Demand Model for the Analysis of autonomous Taxi Systems
Included is one synthetic realization for each of the 308.7 Million individuals contained in the 2010 Census and each of the 1.01 Billion trips {oLat, oLon, oTime, dLat, dLon} these individuals were synthesized to have made on a typical weekday in October. Persons are organized in individual Home County Files (All 186,49 persons that lived in Peoria County, Il., or the 1,585,873 persons that lived in Manhattan, for example). Trips are available in files for each person residing in a county (with many trips diffusing into other counties, states and even countries) as well as by oCounty (the 649,781 trips that originate in Peoria County or the 8,085,055 trips that originate in Manhattan, many of which are made by 1.5 million persons that don’t live in Manhattan.). For example, one can get all the trips made by the residents of Manhattan or by all trips originating in Manhattan. The user is left with the task of finding all trips that either originate, terminate or go through Manhattan. Note, trips to work where the work place was greater than 200 miles from the home location were routed via the nearest major airports. Alain
Sun, Zhuyi (Judy): Causal Price Discrimination: An Analysis of the Healthcare Costs Associated with Motor Vehicle and Transportation Collisions
Rhodes, Brandon Xavier: An Analysis of Economically Efficient Insurance Schemes for Automated Vehicle
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