2014-10-10
October 10, 2014
Inaugural Automated Vehicle Summit @ Fort Monmouth
Press release. Oct 9, 2014 Princeton, NJ “New Jersey’s first summit meeting on creation of a center for research, certification, and commercialization of automated vehicle technology took place on October 3 at former Army base Fort Monmouth in Oceanport. The purpose of the meeting was to bring together stakeholders with a vested interest and the wherewithal to place New Jersey at the forefront of research into potentially life-saving technology.
More than 60 invited participants to the summit included representatives of: the insurance industry, automakers, wireless communications industry, motor vehicle regulators, public transit industry, and universities. State Senators Jennifer Beck, Thomas H. Kean, Jr., Joseph M. Kyrillos, Jr., and Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon, Jr. represented New Jersey’s legislative bodies…” Read more Hmmm..Progress!
Alain
A Driverless Alternative: Fleet Size and Cost Requirements for a Statewide Autonomous Taxi Network in New Jersey
Chris Brownell and Alain Kornhauser “… Given recent advancements in the field of vehicle autonomy, a potential solution to the car’s growing problems has presented itself: an autonomous taxi network (ATN). Drawing from the classic personal rapid transit model as well as Mark Gorton’s idea of smart paratransit, two potential designs for an ATN are presented and compared with one another, and the viability of the ATN concept is explored in view of statewide transportation demand in New Jersey. With travel demand as generated by Talal Mufti in 2012, the smart paratransit model emerges as the more economically viable implementation, requiring a fleet size between 1.6 and 2.8 million six-passenger vehicles to meet the state’s travel demand in its entirety, at a cost to consumers of $16.30 to $23.50 per person per day.” Read more Hmmm… Interesting. Alain
Impacts of Future Vehicle Technologies on Infrastructure and Design
Alain Kornhauser, September 29, 2014 “…Good paint, Good surface, Good signs, Safe havens. Nothing more. Certainly can’t justify public investment in “technologies” that are anything but useless to all existing drivers and, at best, may some day be useful to those that have to outfit themselves with even more technology before the expensive technology has any chance of being useful. The public sector simply isn’t that rich. …” The Slides
America’s 10 Best Cities for Commuting on Public Transit
Alex Davies 10.09.14 “…The rankings are included in a new report from the University of Minnesota’s Center for Transportation Studies, which used a novel approach to score cities based on how many jobs they offer that are accessible by public transit.
The above maps show how many jobs can be reached in half an hour, without using a car.
The report, by Andrew Owen and David Levinson, defines accessibility as “the ease of reaching valued destinations,” in this case jobs. Simply put, it’s an examination of how easy it is for people to get to work.
Each metro region is ranked by how long it takes people to get to work: Jobs that can be reached within 10 minutes are worth more than those accessible with 20 minutes, and so on, up to 60 minutes. Data for job locations is drawn from the Census Bureau, and the time it takes to get there is measured using “detailed pedestrian networks” and full transit schedules for weekdays between 7 and 9 am.
The method accounts for things like how long it takes to walk from a transit stop to a destination and transfer times from one bus or subway line to another. Importantly, it also factors in service frequency and includes the time people spend waiting for a bus or train to arrive. Read more Hmmm,… This is REALLY interesting!!! Read the report. Alain
What Old Transit Maps Can Teach Us About a City’s Future
Kyle Shelton 10/10/2014 “…Houston, Atlanta, and Los Angeles are three of America’s most notoriously car-dependent metropolitan areas, but each has taken steps of late to counter highway-first development patterns with more sustainable ones. Houston is expanding its light rail system, improving walkability, and considering an enhanced bus plan. Atlanta has pushed transit-oriented development with its BeltLine project and may soon add a new county to its MARTA system. Los Angeles remains committed to a 30-year, transit-intensive, multi-modal plan funded by voters in 2008.
The transportation futures of these cities will largely be defined by whether these new efforts pan out or fall flat. Before elected officials and transportation authorities in these cities look too far ahead, they might be wise to glance back. During the past 50 years, citizens in Houston, Atlanta, and Los Angeles rejected transit plans only to see elements of those same plans re-emerge in today’s growing systems. By delaying the development of mass transit within their most densely populated corridors, in some cases for decades, all three cities missed opportunities to expand mobility, contributing to many of the problems they face today.
To illustrate this point, I’ve undertaken an analysis of historic transit maps from each of these cities to highlight many of these once-rejected, later-constructed routes. …” Read more
Hmmm Interesting; however, the opportunity to offer mobility unburdened by labor costs to essentially everyone may well make many of these systems obsolete even before their ribbon cutting. We may well be achieving something that we should have achieved 50 years ago. Then it would have delivered full value, but tomorrow it may well be completely out of phase and we should just sit back and say that we missed the opportunity whose virtues had a finite time in the sun, but are now about to be supplanted by an even better form of mobility. Alain
Mercedes Is Making a Self-Driving Semi to Change the Future of Shipping
By Alex Davies 10.07.14 “In the Future Truck, which Mercedes unveiled at a commercial vehicle conference last month, the driver becomes a “transport manager.” He gets the truck onto the highway and merges into traffic. At 50 mph, he’s prompted to activate the “Highway Pilot” and relax. He can pivot his seat 45 degrees away from the wheel, and doesn’t even need to check Google Maps, since the truck has a navigation system (hopefully CoPilot :-) ) to independently find the best route. If the truck approaches construction, or it’s time to get off the highway, it flashes a visual alert to tell the driver to get his hands back on the wheel. If he doesn’t comply (maybe he’s asleep?), the truck sounds an alarm, and if necessary can bring itself to “a controlled emergency stop.”…” Read more Hmmm This is somewhat a repeat, but one that deserves to be taken seriously. The savings in top-line self-insured liability expenses, insurance premiums and the possibility of expanding “hours-of-service” makes this technology very interesting to each Motor Carrier CFO, CEO and shareholder. Alain
Jaguar joins the race to driverless cars
Jonathan Hawley October 3, 2014 “…Jaguar Land Rover is well on the way to delivering with a car that will drive itself within the next decade. Speaking at the Paris motor show, JLR’s director of research and technology Dr Wolfgang Epple said the advanced technology added to its new XE sedan meant it was prepped and ready to start the first steps towards fully autonomous driving. “For Jaguar Land Rover it will happen within the next 10 years,” he said…” Read more Hmmm… Why so cautious? Alain
Restating NHTSA’s NMVCCS for Automated Vehicles
Oct. 1, 2014 “NHTSA concluded its National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey (NMVCCS) in 2008. The NMVCCS analyzed the events leading up to a motor vehicle crash to determine what was causing automobile accidents. This study, which found that 93% of accidents are caused by human error, is often referenced to justify and quantify automated vehicles’ accident reduction potential. However, this study was never intended to be applied to automated vehicles. … To this end, the Task Force has re-evaluated the NMVCCS in the context of an automated vehicle world. It found that automated vehicles can be expected to address up to 51% of accidents, not the 93% that is commonly referenced. The safety of automated vehicles should not be determined by today’s standards; things that cause accidents today may or may not cause accidents in an automated vehicle era. Rather, things like the vehicle’s failure rate (after accounting for any fail-safes, infrastructure investments, and driver interactions) and unavoidable accidents (e.g., falling rocks) should be the gauge by which they should be measured. Safety metrics should also consider additional criteria that would not be part of today’s standards and safety concerns, as automation introduces additional risks to consider. …” Read more
Hmmm… This is a major turnaround and one that needs detailed peer review. I have not done that but will try to get to it. If the best that we can hope to get out of automation is a halving of the accidents, not an order of magnitude reduction, then Volvo has no chance of coming anywhere close to … “no one shall be… by 2020”. We all need to look very carefully at this report.” Alain
Is ‘talking’ to your car DANGEROUS?
Jonathan O’Callaghan 7 October 2014 “Study finds tech significantly distracts drivers - and Apple’s Siri is the worst offender. Many car manufacturers and phone makers rave about the smart systems in cars that are designed to help drivers safely use their devices at the wheel.
But in a study, researchers found that such systems were actually dangerous, as drivers were distracted by misunderstood requests or poor service. On a scale of one to five, five being most distracting, Apple’s Siri rated the worst at 4.14 while others such as Chevrolet’s MyLink also ranked highly at 3.7…” Read more Hmmm…Not at all surprising. Alain
Half-baked stuff that probably doesn’t deserve your time:
Tesla Model S P85D AWD and auto-pilot demo
Hmmm Easy to do with good paint (highly illuminated lane markings). I see Hype! Alain
Re-Programming Mobility
August, 2014 “After decades of anticipation, digital technologies are beginning to have a major impact on the way Americans travel – from deciding when and where to take trips, to selecting modes and planning routes, and coordinating with others while on the go. Behind the scenes, these technologies are also being used to rewire infrastructure and services that enable transportation networks to function.
Investments in these technologies dwarf spending on conventional transportation solutions – for instance, as much private capital has been poured into cellular networks as public capital was spent on the entire Interstate Highway System, about $500 billion in current dollars. But transportation planning is only beginning to grapple with the far-reaching impacts of these rapid shifts. How will services like e-hailing, autonomous vehicles, and electronic road pricing impact the way people travel, land use patterns, and the management and planning of transportation itself?…” Read more
Hmmm… very interesting, but they fail to observe the implications of the availability of mobility on-demand without incurring a cost-of-labor. automatedBusRapidTransit (aBRT), with its implied schedule, fixed routes and multiple intermediate stops, is totally inferior to on-demand shared autonomousTaxis that are managed so as to have the right sized aTaxi at the right place at the right time in order to accommodate all who wish to travel to compatible destinations at that time. Alain
Town Built for Driverless Cars
By Will Knight on October 3, 2014 “Tricky intersections and rogue mechanical pedestrians will provide a testing area for automated and connected cars.” Read more Hmmm…Is the objective here to build intersections that automated cars can’t negotiate. If so, that’s easy. Why is what being built? Alain
C’mon Man! (These folks didn’t get/read the memo):
Tesla’s D-Day: Hype vs. reality
Phil leBeau 10/10/2014 Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk turned a product upgrade announcement into a major media event, building anticipation over the course of a week by dropping a few clues on social media and dancing around questions about “Unveiling the D”. Watch the video Hmmm My vote is Hype! Alain
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
Recent Versions of:
#
October 1, 2014
Mercedes-Benz sends autonomous automobiles onto the USA’s most extensive testing ground
Sunnyvale, Calif., Oct. 1, 2014 /PRNewswire/ – “As one of the first automobile manufacturers permitted to do so, Mercedes-Benz has been testing autonomously driving automobiles on public roads in the US state of California since September. In addition, the company will from now on also use Concord Naval Weapons Station (CNWS), the largest test bed site in the US, for further testing of its future technology.
“We can use the test site in Concord, California, to run simulation tests with self-driving vehicles in a secure way, including specific hazardous situations”, explained Dr Axel Gern, head of autonomous driving at Mercedes-Benz Research and Development North America, Inc. (MBRDNA). “Taken in conjunction with the results of our test drives on public roads, these tests will help us with the ongoing development of our autonomous cars.” The focus of research nevertheless continues to lie on the tests undertaken in a real-life environment, he emphasized….” Read more Hmmm I’m learning that the concept of using “Fort Monmouth” to test automated vehicles is a common concept. Alain
October 1, 2014
Self-driving cars: California regulators probe insurance questions
Patrick Hoge Sep 15, 2014 “Self-driving cars are bearing down on California’s future, and state Department of Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones wants insurers and regulators to prepare now for their eventual arrival.
To that end, Jones hosted a public hearing at the Tech Museum of Innovation in San Jose Monday morning to gather data about what automated vehicle technology will look like. …
A variety of legal and insurance experts testified, as well as a consumer rights advocate. Alain Kornhauser, a Princeton University professor of operations research and financial engineering, was enthusiastic about the potential for automated driving technologies to improve safety, unburden drivers and lower insurance costs.
Varying levels of the technology will be applied in different settings, he said. Commercial fleets, for example, could be more amenable for fully automated uses, while average drivers might use some sort of hybrid, that allows drivers to assume control when needed, he said.
Kornhauser pointed out that some automated technologies are already in widespread use, notably anti-locking brakes and stability controls that prevent drivers from turning too rapidly.
“What’s important is that these systems take over automatically and counter what I am doing wrong,” Kornhauser said. “They don’t warn. They don’t ask for permission. I can’t turn them off. They just do it.”…” Read more
Hmmm… It was a really good session: Video of hearing; hearing’s agenda; background paper; my 5-minute prepared remarks; extended remarks by Prof. Robert Peterson. Alain
September 8, 2014
###
The New Commute Mark Svenvold “…Tomorrow’s transportation solutions will be about learning to share…
“Cars arrived and waited for riders,” Minett wrote of the Oakland commuters he observed. “Riders came and got into their cars, usually two per car on a first-come first-served basis. I saw partners arrive with partners, kiss, and part. Some waited to make sure that their partners got off safely; others left without a backward glance.” He noted that more than half of the people commuting that morning were female. Two women were walking their dogs. “One got a ride, the other carried on with the dogs.” The scene he was describing, in other words, was completely quotidian: “I saw an original VW Beetle, and a lady who got into it with a huge suitcase, and they still took a second passenger.” Later on, in a coffee shop, Minett was able to conjure his quarry in greater relief. “I’d witnessed,” he says in a YouTube video about that moment, “a community of unconnected people who share a solution to their real need and are not afraid to share their trip with a different driver or rider each day.” It was, he says memorably, “a silent transit system that is based on trust.”… Read more
Hmmm… Our studies at Princeton suggest that autonomousTaxis will empower high-quality demand-responsive service at a very low price to exist everywhere by facilitating the sharing of rides when and to where there exists a natural concentration of demand; else, lonesome, solitary service will be available to places, at times, when there simply isn’t anyone else around that wants to make that trip. Much like elevator service today, except horizontally from many places to essentially anywhere else. In our studies of spatial and temporal distributions of trip demand as exists today in New Jersey, such systems can double the productivity of today’s cars, yet offer essentially the same (or in the view of some, a better) level of service. This means that energy consumption is halved, as is pollution. Congestion is essentially eliminated. Alain
August 25, 2014
C’Mon Man! (These folks didn’t get/read the memo):
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards: Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) Communications
“This document initiates rulemaking that would propose to create a new Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS), FMVSS No. 150, to require vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication capability for light vehicles (passenger cars and light truck vehicles (LTVs)) and to create minimum performance requirements for V2V devices and messages.. “
Hmmm… Fundamental problem is for V2V to have any chance of working of avoiding a crash between two vehicles is for both to have the communications. The probability that both vehicles have V2V doesn’t become greater than chance (0.5) until the technology is installed and working in greater than 70% of all vehicles. That level of market penetration will take at least 10 years after this is mandated for every new car that rolls off the assembly line. Moreover, even if both cars are equipped, the regulations require only that there be a warning given to the drivers. As if the drivers will know what to do if the warning is given soon enough. To give the warning soon enough, will invariably increase the false alarm rate, which in itself is likely to cause some accidents that would not have occurred and irritate some drivers to clip the wires as some have done with installed theft alarms. Furthermore, NHTSA recognizes that these systems will not be effective if drivers are impaired (page 266).
Given that 32 % of driving fatalities involve alcohol-impaired driving, none of these will be saved.
So after more than 10 years of the mandate we will be at <68% non-impaired of the <50% of market penetration of the <??% that haven’t clipped their wires of the <???% that are properly working of the ????% drivers that perform the correct collision avoidance maneuver minus the number of additional accidents that have been caused by false alarms. This number may not even yet be above zero! I agree…” NHTSA believes that V2V capability will not develop absent regulation, because there would not be any immediate safety benefits for consumers who are early adopters of V2V”.
Yet, if NHTSA instead “mandated” or encouraged/focused-on automated collision avoidance and automated lane keeping systems, then each of these systems would deliver some immediate safety benefits to each consumer, irrespective of any other vehicle having the system. Some benefit would also be delivered if the driver became impaired. Moreover, insurance may be willing and able to pay for much of this technology. Seems that this is the low hanging fruit. What am I missing here? Why is the sunk investment in V2V seemingly all that is steering the NHTSA ship? Alain
August 18, 2014
###
Beijing orders first driverless metro trains
Keith Barrow 08/12/14 “…Northern Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation (CNR) has been awarded a contract to supply a fleet of 60 driverless trains for the first metro line in Beijing to be equipped for Unattended Train Operation (UTO).
The 10-station Yanfang Line will run for 15.2km from an interchange with the Fangshan Line at Cheliangduan station to Raolefu, where the line will divide into two branches serving Zhoukoudianzhen and Yanhua. Commercial services are expected to begin in December 2015…Read more
Hmmm… Even a country that needs to properly employ 1.5 billion people sees the fundamental virtue of Unattended Train Operation (UTO). Hopefully the US railroad industry will also see the virtue of leapfrogging PTC with UTO (GoA 4). Alain
August 7, 2014
###
Mobileye Record IPO Defeats Global Selloff as Shares Soar
Gabrielle Coppola Aug 4, 2014: “…Mobileye NV (MBLY), which makes software to avoid car accidents, overcame the worst global stock-market sell-off in almost five months to raise $890 million last week, a record for an Israeli company going public in the U.S….” Read more Congratulations!! Alain
The shares soared 48 percent to $37 in New York on their first day of trading on Aug. 1 after the company and existing shareholders sold 35.6 million shares for $25 each, according to a Mobileye statement. That was above the high end of the $21 to $23 marketed range.
July 21, 2014
Princeton Announces Creation of Automated Vehicle Research Center @ Ft. Monmouth focused on automated collision avoidance for transit buses (and trucks and cars)
At last week’s Automated Vehicle Symposium, Professor Alain Kornhauser announced that Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) has created a new Research Center for Automated Vehicles @ Fort Monmouth. The announcement was made as part of a Wednesday hospitality session sponsored by PAVE. The aim of the Session was to begin to formulate the vision for collaboration on automated vehicle research, certification and commercialization that will be conducted at the unique facilities available at “The Fort”.
PAVE’s new Center will re-purpose designated Fort facilities to establish a demonstration technology municipality with automated vehicle technology and new forms of mobility as its priority.
PAVE’s Center will be located on a 25 acre parcel containing over 100,000 sq. ft. of class A office space as well as two major garage facilities that can support transit bus and class 8 truck activities.
The site includes an 80-acre parcel containing a network of streets and buildings that can be configured for closed-course testing of urban and suburban driving situations. We are proud to announce that Michael Sena, a renowned transport technology architect/planner, residing in Sweden, has agreed to take the lead to properly configure this test facility. Also available to the research team will be the network of streets serving the remainder of the two square mile facility that can be managed to provide “half-way house” testing of automated driving in a mixed environment with conventionally driven vehicles operating under normal conditions. Read more
On Wednesday, October 3, 9:00am - 1:00pm an Automated Vehicle Summit will be held at the newly created Center for Automated Vehicles bringing together those interested in joining together to crystallize the Center’s vision, mission, plans and agenda related to automated vehicles. The Summit is by invitation only. For more information, please email Dr. Alain L. Kornhauser alaink@princeton.edu
Alain July 08, 2014
‘Driverless’ trucks become reality: Daimler unveils prototype, dubbed Highway Pilot
Jack Roberts July 3 “…Speculation about autonomous — or “driverless” — vehicles has been commonplace in the trucking industry for years. Now, Daimler has made this concept a reality…
The truck, a specially-equipped Mercedes Actros tractor-trailer, is fitted with front-facing radar sensors and cameras to scan the road ahead. Both systems are tied into a Lane Keeping Assist system. Additional sensors track areas to the sides and rear of the truck to provide the system with a complete view of the vehicle’s surroundings.
Daimler says the new sensors are so precise they can not only recognize the road edge by marker lines, but even identify the course of the road surface by detecting guardrails or vegetation.” Read more Watch Video Hmmm…
Be sure to see video!!! Here we go! This unveiling of a serious driverless truck by Daimler is perfect timing for the Commercial Vehicle breakout session next week at the Automated Vehicle Conference in San Francisco. The focus of that breakout session is to discuss the implications of what Daimler has unveiled. It should be a fantastic break-out session. There are at least two other breakout sessions for which this unveiling has strong implications: The Transit breakout since there really isn’t much difference between the Daimler truck and a transit bus and the Commercialization breakout because without market adoption of the Daimler vision none of the benefits of the vision are captured by society. Alain
###
1, 2014
Will Driverless Cars Fuel Cheap Insurance?
Mark Chalon Smith, June 26, “…A CarInsurance.com survey of 2,000 licensed motorists found that only about 20% would happily switch to autonomous cars if they became readily available. The other 80% said they just don’t feel comfortable with the technology.
But what if insurance rates would drop significantly in a world with much fewer accidents caused by hapless drivers? More than a third said an 80% cut in premiums, which has been predicted by some analysts, would make it “very likely” that they’d buy a driverless car, and 90% said they would at least consider the possibility….” Read more Be sure to look at the survey summary. It is 6 month old, but probably still good. Alain June 23, 2014
###
In wake of Tracy Morgan crash, rising truck fatalities lead to new scrutiny
Ted Sherman/The Star-Ledger June 15 “The Wal-Mart truck that slammed into a chauffeured van carrying comic Tracy Morgan on the New Jersey Turnpike just over a week ago was state-of-the-art.
According to company officials, its high-tech cab was equipped with sophisticated collision-avoidance systems that included forward-looking radar with interactive cruise control — all designed to begin automatically braking the big truck when it sensed traffic slowing down.
It was programmed to notify the driver of any vehicles stopped ahead in the roadway. There was an on-board computer, blind spot sensors, and electronic controls limiting its top speed to 65 miles per hour….” Read more
Hmm… I wrote last Tuesday as to how the Tracy Morgan Accident needs to be wake-up call to Walmart and other shippers and carriers (see below) to install automatic collision avoidance systems. I will repeat it again here in this special post. While Walmart might feel that it had done all it can by having what it calls a “high-tech cab”, its truck was in fact a very low-tech cab. Something like having a PrincessPhone relative to an iPhone5. The “interactive cruise control” only begins to automatically brake when it senses traffic slowing down (doesn’t bring the truck to a complete stop if the traffic ahead stops AND it needs to have been actively engaged by the driver to work at all!). Moreover…“programmed to notify the driver of vehicles stopped ahead”, but NOT programmed to automatically stop the truck before hitting the stopped traffic ahead.
While subtle, these are VERY important differences between a “PrincessPhone” cab and a “SmartPhone” cab! Walmart’s and the trucking industry’s focus MUST be on automatic collision avoidance, automatic lane centering and beyond, not simply useless warnings. I applaud Walmart for taking a first baby step, but it needs to up its game substantially!
US DoT also needs to take notice with respect to its V2V and connected vehicle initiatives.
These initiatives have been timidly focused on warnings rather than automatically avoiding the accidents. I understand that the government fears resistance to its efforts to intervene, as it should. And it certainly hasn’t wanted to acquire the responsibility.
However, warnings are simply insufficiently effective. Maybe government should step aside and let someone else accept the responsibility, someone like the insurance industry. Accepting responsibility is in fact their fundamental business. Alain
April 18, 2014
Newly Available Drafts of Recent Student Theses
Wyrough, Alexander Penn Hill Jr.: A National Disaggregate Transportation Demand Model for the Analysis of autonomous Taxi Systems
Included is one synthetic realization for each of the 308.7 Million individuals contained in the 2010 Census and each of the 1.01 Billion trips {oLat, oLon, oTime, dLat, dLon} these individuals were synthesized to have made on a typical weekday in October. Persons are organized in individual Home County Files (All 186,49 persons that lived in Peoria County, Il., or the 1,585,873 persons that lived in Manhattan, for example). Trips are available in files for each person residing in a county (with many trips diffusing into other counties, states and even countries) as well as by oCounty (the 649,781 trips that originate in Peoria County or the 8,085,055 trips that originate in Manhattan, many of which are made by 1.5 million persons that don’t live in Manhattan.). For example, one can get all the trips made by the residents of Manhattan or by all trips originating in Manhattan. The user is left with the task of finding all trips that either originate, terminate or go through Manhattan. Note, trips to work where the work place was greater than 200 miles from the home location were routed via the nearest major airports. Alain
Sun, Zhuyi (Judy): Causal Price Discrimination: An Analysis of the Healthcare Costs Associated with Motor Vehicle and Transportation Collisions
Rhodes, Brandon Xavier: An Analysis of Economically Efficient Insurance Schemes for Automated Vehicle
This list is maintained by Alain Kornhauser and hosted by the Princeton University LISTSERV.
| Unsubscribe | Re-subscribe |