2014-10-31

October 31, 2014

N.J. Senate panel paves way for self-driving cars

Matt Friedman Oct 27 “…The bill (S734), which was approved by the state Senate Transportation Committee 5-0, would require the New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission to establish a program to allow people to obtain endorsements on their driver’s licenses to operate and test “autonomous vehicles,” which aren’t on the consumer market yet but have been under research and development by tech companies and institutions for years.

“This legislation sends a strong message to innovators and job creators that New Jersey is not afraid of being the home to new thinking and the way of the future,” Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Union), said in a statement. “…this legislation is essential to attract and retain new jobs, innovation and entrepreneurship in New Jersey, as driverless vehicle efforts here continue to progress.”..” Read more …and my lead testimony, that of Michael Scrudato of Munich Re, Newsworks and CBS.com video interview. Progress! (only negative testimony came from Honda which was so bad it ended up helping. C’mon Honda!) Alain

Bill Ford charts a course for the future

Interview, Oct. 2014 “.. The Quarterly: When should we expect those transformations to happen?

Bill Ford: There are a lot of bold, singular predictions. I take a more relaxed and holistic view. I think a lot of the required elements will go into vehicles over the next two, three, or perhaps five years. Yet by the time we actually get to full autonomy, it will almost feel like an anticlimax because we’ll have been 95 percent of the way there already. That last 5 percent, though, will be interesting, and no one really can predict when it will happen. We’ll need a lot more certainty than we have today before cars can be fully autonomous, and we’ll need redundancies in these systems.

There are elements already in place. I recently drove up to northern Michigan on Interstate Highway 75. I put on the adaptive cruise control, comfortable knowing that if the car in front of me decelerated quickly, my car would act immediately to keep the gap I’d set. I found that a really useful tool. We’ll keep adding more of these features, so that the final steps to full autonomy will feel almost uneventful. I think the technology will be ready before society and lawmakers are….” Read more Hmmmm Very interesting! Alain

First driverless vehicles for public launched

“Joint News Release (SMART, NUS and IDA)

First time, two SMART-NUS enhanced driverless buggies to ferry passengers, free-of-charge, around Chinese and Japanese Gardens, as part of the Smart and Connected Jurong Lake District (JLD) Pilots and Trials initiative
Driverless buggies to start ferrying public on 23 Oct to 1 Nov 2014, Thursday to Saturday, 8am-2pm and will be extended following a short remission for evaluation
Enhanced features include an online booking system, vehicle-to-vehicle communications and more …” Read more Very interesting. 10 “aTaxi Stands”. Today: Chinese and Japanese Gardens; Tomorrow: All of New Jersey! Alain

Public opinion about self-driving vehicles in China, India, Japan, the U.S., the U.K., and Australia

Brandon Schoettle & Michael Sivak Oct 2014, “ This report documents a new study of public opinion about self-driving vehicles in China, India and Japan. The survey yielded completed responses from 610 respondents in China, 527 respondents in India, and 585 respondents in Japan. For comparison, the report also includes recently released findings from the same survey in the U.S., the U.K., and Australia….The main implications of these results are that the respondents in the six countries surveyed, while expressing high levels of concern about riding in vehicles equipped with this technology, mostly feel positive about self-driving vehicles, have optimistic expectations of the benefits, and generally desire self-driving-vehicle technology (though a majority in four out of the six countries surveyed are not willing to pay extra for such technology at this time). Read more Abstract Paper

…Hmmm Surprising that the “benefits” that respondents were asked about did not include “ability to text, relax or do whatever you want while traveling”. When taking a taxi, bus, plane or train very few of us want to run up and do the driving, flying or controlling. We sit back and do whatever. Also, many of us drive the family because of some horrendously outdated machoism or as a favor for the others in the car. I’m not sure that the current general perception of self-driving embodies the liberation and freedom that will become evident when the technology will allow you to choose to drive or ride. My guess is that the over-under for women is 80% ride and for men it is initially 10% ride, but will evolve to 80% ride. Hopefully Schoettle & Sivak will explore this issue in their future surveys. Alain

Who and what is driving the development of driverless cars

David Baile, October 22, 2014 “… In the short term, it’s the suppliers which may make the running, especially those that can provide a range of autonomous vehicle technologies. This has triggered a wave of takeovers in the supply chain. Software firms in particular will play a critical role.

For example, last month ZF Friedrichshafen took over TRW Auto, a US-based maker of video and radar systems. That was followed by a Panasonic bid to take a stake in the Spanish firm Ficosa, whose image-recognition technology Panasonic hopes to combine with its auto sensors to develop self-driving technology. Meanwhile, the Swedish firm Autolive has made a number of driverless technology acquisitions.

Suppliers and software firms are lining up to supply driver assistance features which are set to take off, with some analysts suggesting that the market will grow from around $6bn now to some $25bn by 2020, and over $50bn by 2025. …“Read more Hmmm…

The interesting aspect of the suppliers of automated collision avoidance technologies is that they have real customers, the automakers who may well begin to see that people (or insurance companies) may actually be willing to pay for these technologies. As opposed to the suppliers of “V2V” giZmos whose customers are government agencies that are basically bankrupt. Alain

Self-driving cars are starting to evolve

It’s mainly the policy, not the technology. by Jonathan M. Gitlin - Oct 29 2014 “ Today was the third day of Ars UNITE, our virtual conference, and the topic of the day was the advent of the self-driving car. ..We followed the feature with a live discussion this afternoon. Joining us were Ogi Rezdic, senior vice president for Connected Driving at HERE, and Catherine McCullough, executive director of the Intelligent Car Coalition. Our panelists answered questions on a range of topics, from looking where the technology currently is to the many open policy questions. “ The Complete Transcript Very interesting discussion Alain

Google takes its driverless car on a tour of its California campus

updated Oct 23 “ Car was shown off to staff and visitors at Google’s California campus…” Read more

Ford to Add Pedestrian Detection to Its Cars

Will Knight on October 23, 2014 “Ford is giving its cars the ability to spot—and avoid hitting—pedestrians using a combination of radar and camera sensing. The system will appear in Europe next year on Ford’s Mondeo sedan.

Although similar technology is available in some high-end cars, like the Mercedes S-Class, the move from Ford shows how rapidly automation is coming even to modest vehicles….” Read more Hmmm Why does it have to appear in Europe before the USA? Are we still accumulation “points” for nailing pedestrians??? Alain

Half-baked stuff that probably doesn’t deserve your time:

Audi Claims Self-Driving Car Set Speed Record At 149 MPH

Kelsey D. Atherton, 10.22.2014 “…A major selling point of self-driving cars is what they remove from the road: human error, driver exhaustion, distracted driving because someone has to keep reminding the urchins in the backseat that “No, we’re not there yet, and if you keep asking I’m pulling the car over right now.” Less attention has been paid to the new capabilities driverless cars will open up, such as traveling at much higher speeds than a human driver could manage…” Hmmm…

Please Audi!! Achieving higher speeds is simply not on any critical path to improved mobility for all, or anyone. There is no market for that and you are on your own wasting your time doing that. Trust me, no one is impressed except for a possibly a few Autobahn crazies. Alain

C’mon Man! (These folks didn’t get/read the memo):

Experts discuss technology’s role in future of transportation

Ashley Halsey III October 21 “..The conference attendees heard from mayors, past and present U.S. secretaries of transportation, Vice President Biden and a bevy of fellow experts, most with their own vision of the future.

The central theme for most was the critical importance of investing in the nation’s tattered infrastructure to keep the United States competitive in the global market. ….” Read more Hmmm… well, maybe not! The infrastructure is not tattered. It only needs resurfacing and good paint. It certainly does not need a bunch of electronics and gizmos that are useless in helping the 100% of today’s drivers and are nowhere near the critical path of real improvements in mobility for all. Where the public investment, if any, should be is on those automated vehicles that operate autonomously, without the need of some governmental oversight or orchestration. Automated vehicles that will revolutionize mobility by optimizing the utilization of our existing roadway infrastructure, eliminate the dependence of our cities and activity centers on endless parking spaces, substantially improve safety, eliminate congestion and reduce pollution and energy consumption. C’mon Washington Post! Alain

Enjoy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMTxMqomDbA&feature=youtu.be

Calendar of Upcoming Events:

3rd Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Symposium

College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering (CNSE)

Albany, NY

November 5, 2014

2014 FLORIDA AUTOMATED VEHICLES SUMMIT

Walt Disney World; Coronado Springs Resort

December 15 -16, 2014

Recent Versions of:

October 22, 2014

Request for Comment on Automotive Electronic Control Systems Safety and Security

Volume 79, Number 194 (Tuesday, October 7, 2014); FR Doc No: 2014-23805: ACTION: Request for comments:

SUMMARY: This notice presents the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s research program on vehicle electronics and our progress on examining the need for safety standards with regard to electronic systems in passenger motor vehicles. The agency undertook this examination pursuant to the requirements of the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) Division C, Title I, Subtitle D, Section 31402, Subsection (a). In addition, and in accordance with MAP-21, we are seeking comment (through this document) on various components of our examination of the need for safety standards in this area. As MAP-21 also requires this agency to report to Congress on our findings pursuant to this examination, we intend to submit a report to Congress based in part on our findings from this examination and public comments received in response to this document.

DATES: You should submit your comments early enough to ensure that Docket Management receives them no later than December 8, 2014. Read more

October 10, 2014

Inaugural Automated Vehicle Summit @ Fort Monmouth

Press release.Oct 9, 2014 Princeton, NJ “New Jersey’s first summit meeting on creation of a center for research, certification, and commercialization of automated vehicle technology took place on October 3 at former Army base Fort Monmouth in Oceanport. The purpose of the meeting was to bring together stakeholders with a vested interest and the wherewithal to place New Jersey at the forefront of research into potentially life-saving technology.

More than 60 invited participants to the summit included representatives of: the insurance industry, automakers, wireless communications industry, motor vehicle regulators, public transit industry, and universities. State Senators Jennifer Beck, Thomas H. Kean, Jr., Joseph M. Kyrillos, Jr., and Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon, Jr. represented New Jersey’s legislative bodies…” Read more Hmmm..Progress! Alain

October 1, 2014

Mercedes-Benz sends autonomous automobiles onto the USA’s most extensive testing ground

Sunnyvale, Calif., Oct. 1, 2014 /PRNewswire/ – “ As one of the first automobile manufacturers permitted to do so, Mercedes-Benz has been testing autonomously driving automobiles on public roads in the US state of California since September. In addition, the company will from now on also use Concord Naval Weapons Station (CNWS), the largest test bed site in the US, for further testing of its future technology.

“We can use the test site in Concord, California, to run simulation tests with self-driving vehicles in a secure way, including specific hazardous situations”, explained Dr Axel Gern, head of autonomous driving at Mercedes-Benz Research and Development North America, Inc. (MBRDNA). “Taken in conjunction with the results of our test drives on public roads, these tests will help us with the ongoing development of our autonomous cars.” The focus of research nevertheless continues to lie on the tests undertaken in a real-life environment, he emphasized….” Read more Hmmm I’m learning that the concept of using “Fort Monmouth” to test automated vehicles is a common concept. Alain

October 1, 2014

Self-driving cars: California regulators probe insurance questions

Patrick Hoge Sep 15, 2014 “Self-driving cars are bearing down on California’s future, and state Department of Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones wants insurers and regulators to prepare now for their eventual arrival.

To that end, Jones hosted a public hearing at the Tech Museum of Innovation in San Jose Monday morning to gather data about what automated vehicle technology will look like. …

A variety of legal and insurance experts testified, as well as a consumer rights advocate. Alain Kornhauser, a Princeton University professor of operations research and financial engineering, was enthusiastic about the potential for automated driving technologies to improve safety, unburden drivers and lower insurance costs.

Varying levels of the technology will be applied in different settings, he said. Commercial fleets, for example, could be more amenable for fully automated uses, while average drivers might use some sort of hybrid, that allows drivers to assume control when needed, he said.

Kornhauser pointed out that some automated technologies are already in widespread use, notably anti-locking brakes and stability controls that prevent drivers from turning too rapidly.

“What’s important is that these systems take over automatically and counter what I am doing wrong,” Kornhauser said. “They don’t warn. They don’t ask for permission. I can’t turn them off. They just do it.”…” Read more

Hmmm… It was a really good session: Video of hearing; hearing’s agenda; background paper; my 5-minute prepared remarks; extended remarks by Prof. Robert Peterson. Alain

September 8, 2014

The New Commute

Mark Svenvold “…Tomorrow’s transportation solutions will be about learning to share…

“Cars arrived and waited for riders,” Minett wrote of the Oakland commuters he observed. “Riders came and got into their cars, usually two per car on a first-come first-served basis. I saw partners arrive with partners, kiss, and part. Some waited to make sure that their partners got off safely; others left without a backward glance.” He noted that more than half of the people commuting that morning were female. Two women were walking their dogs. “One got a ride, the other carried on with the dogs.” The scene he was describing, in other words, was completely quotidian: “I saw an original VW Beetle, and a lady who got into it with a huge suitcase, and they still took a second passenger.” Later on, in a coffee shop, Minett was able to conjure his quarry in greater relief. “I’d witnessed,” he says in a YouTube video about that moment, “a community of unconnected people who share a solution to their real need and are not afraid to share their trip with a different driver or rider each day.” It was, he says memorably, “a silent transit system that is based on trust.”… Read more

Hmmm… Our studies at Princeton suggest that autonomous Taxis will empower high-quality demand-responsive service at a very low price to exist everywhere by facilitating the sharing of rides when and to where there exists a natural concentration of demand; else, lonesome, solitary service will be available to places, at times, when there simply isn’t anyone else around that wants to make that trip. Much like elevator service today, except horizontally from many places to essentially anywhere else. In our studies of spatial and temporal distributions of trip demand as exists today in New Jersey, such systems can double the productivity of today’s cars, yet offer essentially the same (or in the view of some, a better) level of service. This means that energy consumption is halved, as is pollution. Congestion is essentially eliminated. Alain

August 25, 2014

C’Mon Man! (These folks didn’t get/read the memo):

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards: Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) Communications

“This document initiates rulemaking that would propose to create a new Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS), FMVSS No. 150, to require vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication capability for light vehicles (passenger cars and light truck vehicles (LTVs)) and to create minimum performance requirements for V2V devices and messages.. “

Hmmm… Fundamental problem is for V2V to have any chance of working of avoiding a crash between two vehicles is for both to have the communications. The probability that both vehicles have V2V doesn’t become greater than chance (0.5) until the technology is installed and working in greater than 70% of all vehicles. That level of market penetration will take at least 10 years after this is mandated for every new car that rolls off the assembly line. Moreover, even if both cars are equipped, the regulations require only that there be a warning given to the drivers. As if the drivers will know what to do if the warning is given soon enough. To give the warning soon enough, will invariably increase the false alarm rate, which in itself is likely to cause some accidents that would not have occurred and irritate some drivers to clip the wires as some have done with installed theft alarms. Furthermore, NHTSA recognizes that these systems will not be effective if drivers are impaired (page 266).

Given that 32 % of driving fatalities involve alcohol-impaired driving, none of these will be saved.

So after more than 10 years of the mandate we will be at <68% non-impaired of the <50% of market penetration of the <??% that haven’t clipped their wires of the <???% that are properly working of the ????% drivers that perform the correct collision avoidance maneuver minus the number of additional accidents that have been caused by false alarms. This number may not even yet be above zero! I agree…” NHTSA believes that V2V capability will not develop absent regulation, because there would not be any immediate safety benefits for consumers who are early adopters of V2V”.

Yet, if NHTSA instead “mandated” or encouraged/focused-on automated collision avoidance and automated lane keeping systems, then each of these systems would deliver some immediate safety benefits to each consumer, irrespective of any other vehicle having the system. Some benefit would also be delivered if the driver became impaired. Moreover, insurance may be willing and able to pay for much of this technology. Seems that this is the low hanging fruit. What am I missing here? Why is the sunk investment in V2V seemingly all that is steering the NHTSA ship? Alain

Mailto:alaink@princeton.edu

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