2015-01-23

January 23, 2015

January

22, 2015

State-wide aTaxi Service

Serving New Jersey’s Personal Mobility Needs with the Casual Sharing of autonomous Taxis (aTaxis): Land Use, Personal Travel Demand, Casual Ride-sharing Potential, Fleet Size Requirements and Empty aTaxi Management. Orf 467F14 Student Reports for each of New Jersey’s counties.

Even though these are unedited student reports they contain substantial information and perspectives on the opportunities and challenges for aTaxis to adequately serve the majority of New Jersey’s mobility needs. While there are significant causal ride sharing opportunities during peak hours in peak directions, sufficient to eliminate congestion, and aTaxis can substantially increase the utilization (by a multiple of 5) of NJ Transit’s rail system by providing efficient and high quality “last mile” mobility to/from rail stations, it is unlikely that average vehicle occupancy (AVO = personTripMiles/aTaxiMiles) for all trips, all day could reach a level of 2.0. Moreover, that is before one accounts for empty aTaxi repositioning that enables the sharing of aTaxis. These reports are the first that begin to address the empty aTaxis problem. It is non-trivial especially if one wishes to have multiple sized aTaxis so as to have the size of the serving aTaxi more closely match the number of shared rides that are being served. The spatial-temporal imbalances of the shared-ride demand seems to impose a great deal of empty repositioning. It may well turn out that having only four passenger aTaxis may be better than having a fleet consisting of 2 and 6 passenger aTaxis. The reduction in empty repositioning of a uniform fleet of aTaxis may well compensate for the extra energy consumed by a larger aTaxi when a smaller two passenger aTaxi could have done the job and the foregoing of some shared riding when two four passenger aTaxis need to be used because a single 6 passenger aTaxi was not available to serve the six travelers. Alain

Mercedes unveils future of driving with autonomous self-driving hydrogen car

Chris Smith on Jan 6, 2015 “…Anyone who focuses solely on the technology has not yet grasped how autonomous driving will change our society,” Daimler AG chairman and head of Mercedes-Benz Cars Dieter Zetsche said. “The car is growing beyond its role as a mere means of transport and will ultimately become a mobile living space.”…“Read more Watch video Hmmm…

It was very impressive, including the way the F 015 communicates with pedestrians. A very interesting first step. Alain

CES: Ford chief technology officer says driverless cars ‘absolutely possible’

Margi Murphy, Jan 7 “…Ford’s chief executive officer Mark Fields said: “Our priority is not in making marketing claims or being in a race for the first autonomous car on the road. Our priority is in making the first Ford autonomous vehicle accessible to the masses and truly enhancing customers’ lives.” Read more See Also The Video here & here (caught me @ 53 seconds) Hmmm…Emphasis added. Sounds like Henry 100 years ago. You go, Mark :-) Alain

The 1st Self-Driving Ford Is on Its Way (CES 2015)

“Ford execs said self-driving cars won’t depend on having widespread vehicle-to-vehicle communications…Rebecca Strong 01/06/15…Like most major automakers, Ford wants to make its cars smarter. …the firm’s core ambition: Addressing the mobility challenges — including congestion, air quality, safety — that people face across the globe, in no small part thanks to the automobile itself. And some of those could be solved with help from a self-driving car, which Ford is now developing.

Ford Motor Co. President and CEO Mark Fields took the stage for a keynote speech at CES 2015 in Las Vegas, and Ford CTO Raj Nair joined him. Nair said Ford’s cars could already be considered partially autonomous due to features like driver parking assists and adaptive cruise control. “We expect these technologies to continue to make people better drivers, and then one day, in the right environment, could even replace drivers,” he said…..”We absolutely believe automated driving is possible,” he added.

So how exactly does Ford plan to make the jump between semi-autonomous to fully self-driving cars? According to Nair, making the auto dream a reality is going to require a combination of certain features that “keep the driver in the loop.”

Unlike many competitors, though, Ford does not believe that having self-driving cars depends on widespread vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications, Nair said….” Read more Emphasis added. Alain

Ford Details Mobility Vision Ahead of North American Auto Show

Dale Buss on January 7, 2015 “…Ford Details Mobility Vision Ahead of North American Auto Show…Ford’s emphasis, Fields said at CES, will be to make components such as automated parking systems and automated highway driving available first. He’ll let the brands that are fervently working on becoming first with self-driving vehicles, such as Mercedes-Benz, stay on the bleeding edge of this phenomenon and probably, as a result, beat Ford to market….Expect Ford’s partnership with Google for self-driving technology to keep the company close enough to its forefront….” Read more

Report of the Georgia House Autonomous Vehicle Technology Study Committee 2014

“Executive Summary…Legislation will adapt as necessary depending on the results of testing and introduction to driverless vehicles. Adopting this technology would ultimately increase mobility, reduce cost of congestion, improve land use, save lives, and place Georgia in a position for future stability and growth. …

Recommendations…To best promote the development of this technology in Georgia, we must continue on our path to provide a pro-business climate with low taxes and minimal regulation. We should continue our efforts to develop a highly skilled educated workforce with knowledge in the science and technology fields, and we must continue providing adequate funding to higher education facilities and research laboratories. Taking these steps will show the developers of autonomous vehicle technology that Georgia should be their destination for future development. At this time, these are the steps recommended by this committee.” Read more Hmmm…It must be that all legislation in Georgia inhibits rather than promote, so “do nothing”, “follow, don’t dare lead” are safe and best Georgian policies. :-( Alain

Paving the Way to an Autonomous Future

Ken Pyle, Jan 16, 2015 “…In the above interview, filmed at International CES 2015, Kornhauser discusses how decades of theory are rapidly turning to reality, as new features are making cars safer and setting the stage for full autonomy; as Kornhauser says, “At some point, they [cars] become so good, that they chauffeur us.”…Read more Hmmm… In case I haven’t been clear as to where I stand. :-) Alain

The Future of Automated Transit Technology and Its Positive Impact on Transit Operations

Presentation by Alain Kornhauser @ TRB annual meeting on Jan. 14 Read more While the topic of Automated Vehicles was much more prevalent than ever before at the 94th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, the growing opportunity for automation to revolutionize the transit industry and its ability to substantially improve the safety of commercial vehicles (trucks, buses and service fleets) was largely absent. There seemed to be real confusion in the research community between Connected Vehicles and Automated Vehicles with many referring to Connected and Automated Vehicles rather than Automated and Connected Vehicles. Alain

University of Michigan builds mini city to test driverless vehicles

32-acre plot on North Campus will be operational this spring Read more See image

GM expresses intention to work with Google on driverless cars

Laura Onita 13 January “…General Motors made public its intention to work with Google on developing self-driving car technology, according to the chief technology officer for the US car-maker.

“I’m not in charge of deciding what we will and won’t do, but I’d say we’d certainly be open to having a discussion with them,” said Jon Lauckner in an interview at the Detroit auto show….” Read more Hmmm… I thought Fort had announced that it was working with Google??? Alain

Some other thoughts that deserve your time:

Pros & Cons of Having a Self-Driving Car. Watch the video

Nvidia aims new ‘super chip’ at cars and smartphones

Nick Statt & Ben Fox Rubin, Jan. 5 2015 “…AS VEGAS – Nvidia wants to bring its high-end PC graphics card business to mobile – and it thinks it has a chip that can deliver the image quality of an Xbox One to the dashboard of your car.

At the Consumer Electronics Show on Sunday, Nvidia announced the Tegra X1 processor, which CEO Jen-Hsun Huang described as a tiny workhorse for smartphones and cars. The Santa Clara, Calif., company aims to push into the automotive market with chips for vehicles’ driver-assistance and entertainment systems as they become as complex in their way as PCs and tablets.

Huang also unveiled two new technologies for cars using the Tegra X1. Automakers could use Nvidia’s Drive PX platform to push advanced driver-assistance systems a step closer to self-driving cars. The PX system can scan dozens of images a second using cameras and sensors around a vehicle and actually learn to categorize these images so it can more easily recognize them, Huang said. The technology would help a car assist drivers to avoid crashes or, eventually, take over all driving responsibilities.

Huang also unveiled Drive CX, a system that uses the Tegra chip to provide souped-up graphics and infotainment displays inside vehicles. He said cars will soon have many more touchscreen displays and Nvidia wants to provide the technology to make those displays graphically stunning and powerful enough to create real-time navigation maps in 3D.” Read more Hmmmm Better focus on new technology for better and safer mobility at CED than at TRB where magnetic markers, DSRC and positive train control are still ballyhooed. Alain

5 Presentation Tips From CEO Keynotes At CES

Carmine Gallo 1/9/15 “Smart gadgets were all the buzz at the 2015 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. Smart drones were flying around the keynote stage, smartphone apps opened smart doors, and smart cars were driving themselves. There were also some very smart business leaders delivering exceptionally buzzworthy keynote presentations…Here are five tips that you can learn from CEO keynotes to knock your next presentation out of the ballpark…”. Read more Interesting Alain

Automotive 2025: Industry without borders

Executive Report “…As personal mobility expectations grow, non-traditional enterprises are offering technologies to help consumers with driving, including getting directions, dealing with traffic or parking, and integrating with other forms of transportation. New business models such as car sharing even threaten the need to own a vehicle.

Industry ecosystems continue to intersect and overlap. In the future, this disruption will affect major industry processes as traditional roles change and industry borders fade. Six years ago, we published our last major auto industry perspective, “Automotive 2020: Clarity beyond the chaos. To update our understanding of the future landscape, we shifted the lens out for this “Auto 2025” report. We asked 175 executives from 21 countries in a variety of leadership roles how they expect the industry to change over the next decade and how they plan to deal with those changes….” Read more Hmmm It seems as if IBM may still be stuck in their “6 years ago” mindset.

While they mention car-sharing, they miss ride-sharing, the safety implications of automated crash avoidance, the changing role of insurance and the opportunities of automation for fleet. Oh well. Alain

The Era Of The Sports Car Is Ending

Luc Olinga, Jan. 8, 2015, “…But with the advent of soulless self-driving cars, are they fated to be locked away in the stables like the horses they replaced a century ago?

Not so fast, responds Ferrari. The Italian race car legend, its iconic prancing horse logo idolized by drivers everywhere, is still putting out high-performance cars that need real people at the wheel. Read more

Google driverless cars being built in Livonia

Alisa Priddle, Jan 14, “Google is engineering and building driverless cars in Livonia in partnership with metro Detroit suppliers in a marriage of California tech and Motown know-how. Pod-like prototypes for testing are being developed and assembled at a Roush facility and will undergo testing at Google facilities in California in the spring - Google does not want to do testing in the snow. The goal is to have driverless cars available on the market within five years, said Chris Urmson, director of Self-Driving Cars for Google…” Read more Hmmm… The practicality of Thermonuclear Fusion has been 50 years in the future for at least the last 50 years. I hope that is not the fate of Google’s “…on the market within 5 years” Alain

Richard Cohen: Driverless cars means more unemployment

By Richard Cohen 01/20/2015 “Mercedes-Benz wants to develop a driverless car. Google already has one. This is exceedingly bad news for auto body shops, ambulance-chasing lawyers and others. Soon, truck drivers might be replaced by driverless trucks. What then will happen to the nation’s 3.5 million truck drivers, not to mention truck stops, of which there are 276 in Texas alone? (You can Google anything.)

The conventional answer is retraining. Truck drivers will become something else, maybe teachers or dental hygienists, which is of course possible. It’s also likely that many of them will sink into the funk that is the loyal companion of unemployment. Family life will shred and, possibly, an army of former truck drivers will enlist with others of the digitally ditched, and wreak political havoc. Shippers will sing “Happy Days Are Here Again.” For truckers it will be, “Brother Can You Spare a Dime?”

It’s clear by now that the fruits of automation, computerization and outsourcing are being reaped by the top 1 percent – in this case, shipping companies and not drivers. The old bell curve with the middle class bloating comfy in the middle is being replaced by what’s called the power curve, in which something called the 80/20 rule applies: 20 percent of the participants in an online venture get 80 percent of the rewards. Think Uber. It’s not the drivers who are getting rich. Something new and possibly awful is happening. ..” Read more

12 Stocks To Buy If You Believe In Driverless Cars

Please note: I buy high, sell low! Alain

Autonomous cars study passes House

Half-baked stuff that probably doesn’t deserve your time:

MICHAEL SIVAK, BRANDON SCHOETTLE UMTRI-2015-2, Jan 2015, “…The presented arguments support the following conclusions: (1) The expectation of zero fatalities with self-driving vehicles is not realistic. (red herring…only way to achieve zero fatalities is to not have anyone drive, ever) (2) It is not a foregone conclusion that a self-driving vehicle would ever perform more safely than an experienced, middle-aged driver. (but there are precious few, if any, middle-aged, experienced, always fully engaged and attentive drivers. So now what is the relevant conclusion?)

(3) During the transition period when conventional and self-driving vehicles would share the road, safety might actually worsen, at least for the conventional vehicles. (but don’t the conventional vehicles have all of those middle-aged… Certainly they are experienced enough to avoid those automated vehicles. Not to mention that one can’t foresee an end to the transition period. Some people still ride horses.) Read more??? Hmmmm This “white paper” is all too “brief” of an opinion (“presented arguments”) that may or may not support the conclusions and should be respected as such. I wonder what grade this paper earned? Alain

NASA, Nissan Team Up to Build Self-driving Vehicles or Perhaps Planetary Rovers

“…In order to reach such target, the company has entered a five-year partnership with NASA in a move to focus on the research and development of autonomous vehicles and eventually advance the system. The collaboration aims to have the technology become commercially available in the not-so-distant future.

The engineers from the two organizations will be working together at NASA’s Ames Research Center, where they will be testing a fleet of zero-emission autonomous vehicles.

“The partnership will accelerate Nissan’s development of safe, secure and reliable autonomous drive technology that we will progressively introduce to consumers beginning in 2016 up to 2020,” said president and CEO Carlos Ghosn of Nissan Motor Co…” Read more Hmmm…As if doing this on US 1 isn’t hard enough, Nissan wants to do it on Mars where there are no human drivers to contend with??? Focus!!! Alain

Chinese automaker shows driverless concept in Detroit

Google driverless cars being built in Livonia

C’mon Man! (These folks didn’t get/read the memo)

Zetsche, Tesla’s Musk have similar timetables for self-driving cars

Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have very similar timetables for when they think autonomous cars will be on the road.

Musk said that in five years or less the technology will be advanced enough for fully autonomous driving to be a reality. Then it will take another two to three years …

“Therefore, it will take about seven to eight years for it to launch,” Musk said during a press conference following his presentation at the Automotive News World Congress on Tuesday. Read more Hmmm… Daimler has been working on automated driving for ~30 years; Tesla… ~30 days. C’mon Man Alain

Calendar of Upcoming Events:

Invitation ONLY

Automated Vehicle Founder’s Meeting @ Fort Monmouth Bringing together the Region’s Decision Makers to Cooperatively Accelerate the Research, Certification and Commercialization of SmartDriving Cars Trucks & Buses

Save the date (Invitation only) Tuesday, January 27, 2015 @ Ft. Monmouth, NJ

Call for Papers

http://www.driverlesstransportation.com/event/automated-vehicles-symposium-2015

Recent Versions of:

January

4, 2015

New York Bus Driver Arrested After Fatally Striking Pedestrian

MARC SANTORA DEC. 24, 2014 “A Metropolitan Transportation Authority bus driver was arrested on Wednesday after his bus struck and killed a 78-year-old man on Tuesday night in Brooklyn. The driver, Reginald Prescott, was charged with failing to yield to a pedestrian and violation of highway law, the police said.

Prescott, 57, was driving a B44 bus eastbound on Farragut Road in East Flatbush when he made a turn onto New York Avenue around 6 p.m., according to the police. As he was making the turn, Jean Bonne-Annee was crossing the street and was struck by the bus, the police said… Read more

Hmmm… Tragic for everyone. Such accidents would be largely avoidable if transit buses were equipped with pedestrian detection and automated collision avoidance systems that are almost at hand. These systems are close to being ready for “prime time”. The Federal Transit Administration (FTA, whose main mission is safety!) could substantially accelerate the effectiveness and adoption of such technology by focusing some of its research budget on this technology. Alain December 21, 2014

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Daimler Chairman Dr. Dieter Zetsche to Deliver Keynote Address at 2015 CES

Arlington, VA – 10/06/2014 – “The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA)® today announced that Dr. Dieter Zetsche, chairman of the board of management of Daimler AG and Head of Mercedes-Benz Cars, will deliver a 2015 International CES® keynote address focused on the latest advances in autonomous vehicle technology. Owned and produced by CEA, the 2015 CES, the global gathering place for all who thrive on the business of consumer technologies, will run January 6-9, 2015 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Dr. Zetsche will discuss autonomous vehicle technology and its impact on society, mobility and environment, as well as raise ideas and questions for the future. In addition to his insights on the future of Daimler Intelligence Drive, Dr. Zetsche’s 2015 CES keynote will feature the world-debut of a new car concept. His address is slated for 8 PM Monday, January 5 at the Chelsea Theater within the Cosmopolitan.” Read more Daimler will have a Level 4 Research Car at their booth on January 6 ONLY! Alain December 12, 2014

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2014 Florida Automated Vehicle Summit

Florida DOT is blazing the trail for the integration of automated vehicles into existing traffic operations and leading by example with pilot projects, research projects, and open dialogue to ensure that Florida serves as a fertile proving ground for these exciting new technologies. Agenda Register

November 22, 2014

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A Road Test of Alternative Fuel Visions

Hydrogen Cars Join Electric Models in Showrooms

By KENNETH CHANG NOV. 18, 2014 “… Hydrogen fuel cells readily scale up, even to trucks and buses.

A kilogram of hydrogen contains as much chemical energy as a gallon of gasoline, but fuel cells are more efficient than internal combustion engines, so fuel-cell cars like the Mirai have a 300-mile range, comparable to present-day gasoline cars. Filling up at a hydrogen pump takes about the same few minutes as filling a tank of gas, instead of hours plugged in to an outlet. Even Tesla’s high-powered superchargers need 20 minutes to give a Model S half a charge….

…Not surprisingly, the strategy has its critics, particularly from competing Tesla. Elon Musk, the billionaire chief executive of Tesla, mocks fuel cells as “fool cells” that will lose in the marketplace to battery electric cars like his. Battery electrics are more efficient than fuel cells and are cheaper to operate. And there are currently many more places to plug in than places to top off a tank of hydrogen….” Read more Looked into this in the 70’s. Is the “Hydrogen Economy” emerging from its “40 year” gestation in the desert”. :-) Alain November 14, 2014

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Tesla’s Autonomous Car Claims More Hype Than Reality

Maryanna Saenko “…Given the bold claims, it is likely that in 2015 Tesla will be backpedaling from its CEO’s comments. Perhaps Tesla has a partnership in the works and its ADAS features are being developed by outside developers, but nonetheless, Tesla has notoriously been delayed in product deployments. Still, marketing and PR are a true strength of Tesla, and conversations in our automotive network indicate frustration that Tesla is viewed as so advanced while in reality numerous OEMS have technologies equal to or more advanced than what Tesla is claiming. Clients should expect Tesla to continue to drive the conversation, but expect the rapid innovation in ADAS and autonomous vehicles to progress quickly – and much of it outside of Tesla’s walls.” Read more Hmmmm.. Amen! Alain November 7, 2014

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Fujitsu Laboratories develops lower-cost millimeter-wave radar for automobiles

Oct 08, Technology/Engineering “Fujitsu Laboratories today announced that it has produced a transceiver chip for millimeter-wave radar in a complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) implementation, which is a semiconductor process that enables costs to be reduced, while at the same time successfully boosting the short-range detection performance of the transceiver….To make the driving experience safer and more pleasant, cars are increasingly being equipped with technologies that can detect obstacles nearby and even control the brakes or accelerator in response. Technologies used for obstacle-detection include millimeter-wave radar, LiDAR, and stereoscopic cameras. Compared to LiDAR and stereoscopic cameras, which both use the visible wavelengths of light, millimeter-wave radar is relatively unaffected by rain, fog, and reflections, giving it an important role to play as an onboard sensor. The value that sensors such as these bring to cars creates an impetus to develop technologies for implementing these sensors at lower costs. …”. Read more Hmmm… Very interesting. Do reads the whole article. Very promising, but not really available until 2018.

October 31, 2014

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N.J. Senate panel paves way for self-driving cars

Matt Friedman Oct 27 “…The bill (S734), which was approved by the state Senate Transportation Committee 5-0, would require the New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission to establish a program to allow people to obtain endorsements on their driver’s licenses to operate and test “autonomous vehicles,” which aren’t on the consumer market yet but have been under research and development by tech companies and institutions for years.

“This legislation sends a strong message to innovators and job creators that New Jersey is not afraid of being the home to new thinking and the way of the future,” Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Union), said in a statement. “…this legislation is essential to attract and retain new jobs, innovation and entrepreneurship in New Jersey, as driverless vehicle efforts here continue to progress.”..” Read more…and my lead testimony, that of Michael Scrudato of Munich Re, Newsworks and CBS.com video interview.

Progress! (only negative testimony came from Honda which was so bad it ended up helping. C’mon Honda!) Alain October 22, 2014

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Request for Comment on Automotive Electronic Control Systems Safety and Security

Volume 79, Number 194 (Tuesday, October 7, 2014); FR Doc No: 2014-23805: ACTION: Request for comments:

SUMMARY: This notice presents the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s research program on vehicle electronics and our progress on examining the need for safety standards with regard to electronic systems in passenger motor vehicles. The agency undertook this examination pursuant to the requirements of the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) Division C, Title I, Subtitle D, Section 31402, Subsection (a). In addition, and in accordance with MAP-21, we are seeking comment (through this document) on various components of our examination of the need for safety standards in this area. As MAP-21 also requires this agency to report to Congress on our findings pursuant to this examination, we intend to submit a report to Congress based in part on our findings from this examination and public comments received in response to this document.

DATES: You should submit your comments early enough to ensure that Docket Management receives them no later than December 8, 2014. Read more

October 10, 2014

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Inaugural Automated Vehicle Summit @ Fort Monmouth

Press release. Oct 9, 2014 Princeton, NJ “New Jersey’s first summit meeting on creation of a center for research, certification, and commercialization of automated vehicle technology took place on October 3 at former Army base Fort Monmouth in Oceanport. The purpose of the meeting was to bring together stakeholders with a vested interest and the wherewithal to place New Jersey at the forefront of research into potentially life-saving technology.

More than 60 invited participants to the summit included representatives of: the insurance industry, automakers, wireless communications industry, motor vehicle regulators, public transit industry, and universities. State Senators Jennifer Beck, Thomas H. Kean, Jr., Joseph M. Kyrillos, Jr., and Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon, Jr. represented New Jersey’s legislative bodies…” Read more Hmmm..Progress! Alain

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