2016-07-01
A Tragic Loss
Blog, June 30, “We learned yesterday evening that NHTSA is opening a preliminary evaluation into the performance of Autopilot during a recent fatal crash that occurred in a Model S. This is the first known fatality in just over 130 million miles where Autopilot was activated…
The customer
who died in
this crash had
a loving
family and we
are beyond
saddened by
their loss. He
was a friend
to Tesla and
the broader EV
community, a
person who
spent his life
focused on
innovation and
the promise of
technology and
who believed
strongly in
Tesla's
mission. We
would like to
extend our
deepest
sympathies to
his family and
friends." [Read more](https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/tragic-loss) I also wish to extend my deepest and sincerest
sympathies and
condolences to
his family and
friends. Alain
Self-Driving Tesla Was Involved in Fatal Crash, U.S. Says
B. Vlasic
& N.
Boudette, June
30. "Federal
regulators,
who are in the
early stages
of setting
guidelines for
autonomous
vehicles, have
opened a
formal
investigation
into the
incident,
which occurred
on May 7 in
Williston, Fla
....said
preliminary
reports
indicated that
the crash
occurred when
a
tractor-trailer
made a left
turn in front
of the Tesla,
and the car
failed to
apply the
brakes.
Florida Highway Patrol identified him as Joshua Brown, 40, of Canton, Ohio. He was a Navy veteran who owned a technology consulting firm….” Read more Hmmm…Thank you NYT for providing more information on Joshua Brown.
What is
interesting
here is that
failure is
being
attributed to
the AutoPilot
aspects rather
than the
Automated
Collision
Avoidance
(ACA) aspects
of the car.
Yes, ACA is a
building block
of AutoPilot,
but it is a
system that is
supposed to be
on all the
time and
can not, and
should not, be
disabled by
the driver.
(Similar to
the anti-lock
mechanism in
brakes and
electronic
stability
control. The
information
made available
so far does
NOT implicate
AutoPilot's
driverless
"Summoning" ,
lane changing
function, nor
lane centering
functions.
It's
Intelligent
Cruise Control
at some point
was
challenged,
but probable
failure may
lie in the ACA
(which one
would like to
think is on
all the
time). To
date ACA
systems have
unfortunately
over-promised
and
under-delivered.
All one need
to do is to
look at the
videos in [slide 9 of David Zuby's presentation](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Presentations/ZubyIIHS_Presentation_2106.pptx)at
last week's
I-95 CC AV
Conference.
The
manufacturer-selected
settings for
these systems
are too
timidly set in
the trade-off
between
"false-alarm"
and "crash
anyway". They
also need to
be improved, (
which is true
of all
technology
developments).
We fail, we
learn, we fix
, we improve.
(We certainly
don't do what
GM did with
the [ignition switch issue](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/18/business/gm-to-pay-us-900-million-over-ignition-switch-flaw.html)
.). Zuby's
following
slides
highlight that
these first
generation
ACAs do
deliver some
crash
avoidance
value but they
should, and
very likely
can, work much
better. What
I haven't seen
published is
information on
highway deaths
involving
vehicles that
had ACA.
There must be
many. It may
well be that
this accident
is another one
of those and
not one in
which the
Sunday
Supplement
vision of
"Self-driving"
is to blame
just because
it happened to
be on at crash
time. (It is
likely that [EgyptAir 804's](http://www.nytimes.com/live/egyptair-flight-missing-paris-cairo/)
autopilot was
on when it
began to fall
out of the sky
on May 19;
however, it is
not likely
that its
autopilot
played a
significant
role in its
crash.)
A couple other
things: We
have all
expected this
day to come
because we
know that
nothing is
perfect. I am
sure that
Tesla and
Google and
everyone else
in this field
have
developed,
rehearsed and
practiced
contingency
plans
associated
with this kind
of event. It
surprises me
that Tesla's
plan would be
one to wait
nearly 2 month
and follow
rather than
lead some
announcement
by some public
agency. It
may be that
Tesla doesn't
correlate this
crash with
"self-driving"
but with
something else
so it didn't
fit into the
contingency.
Don't know (it
doesn't really
matter anyway,
just
surprised.).
The other
thing is: why
is NHTSA doing
the formal
investigation?
(We know the
textbook
answer!) and
not NTSB (NTSB
has experience
in
investigating
transportation
crashes that
involve
"autoPilots"
and
"blackBoxes",
both of which
are involved
in this case.)
or some new
public entity
(there are
arguments that
can be made
that have
"Self-driving"
and
"Driverless"
as new "modes"
that deserve
their own
public
oversight as
is afforded to
aviation,
pipelines,
railroads,
trucks, ...)
Finally, we have had many tragedies, learned from them, fixed
things and
achieved the
benefits that
we sought.
This does not
reach the
levels of the
[Apollo 1](http://history.nasa.gov/Apollo204/) and [Challenger](http://www.nytimes.com/learning/general/onthisday/big/0128.html)
tragedies nor
require that
intensive of
an
investigation.
The [Amtrak 188 Philadelphia Derailment](http://www.ntsb.gov/news/events/Pages/2016-Amtrak-BMG.aspx)
comes closer.
This case
certainly
deserves as
intense of an
investigation
as was made
there (without
the conclusion
the train
engineer under
the bus".)
Alain
Survey: New Yorkers and Californians Ready for Autonomous Cars; Texas and Pennsylvania Residents Skeptical
Press release, June 29, “Nine out of ten New Yorkers and 86 percent of residents in California feel that autonomous cars could make life easier, according to Volvo Cars’ Future of Driving survey, the largest online consumer conversation about autonomous driving to date with nearly 50,000 responses worldwide.
Residents in
Pennsylvania,
Illinois and
Texas are less
convinced than
the average
consumer about
the safety
benefits of
autonomous
driving. Only
about half (52
percent) of
Illinois
respondents
would trust an
autonomous car
to make
decisions
about safety,
10 percent
less than the
national
average.
Similarly,
only 62
percent of
Pennsylvanians
think that
having more
autonomous
cars on the
road will
eliminate
traffic
accidents
versus a
national
average of 68
percent, and
60 percent of
Texans believe
autonomous
cars could
keep their
family safer
compared to 69
percent of
people across
the nation....
"[Read more](https://www.media.volvocars.com/us/en-us/media/pressreleases/193745/survey-new-yorkers-and-californians-ready-for-autonomous-cars-texas-and-pennsylvania-residents-skept)Hmmm...Also go to[https://www.futureofdriving.com/](https://www.futureofdriving.com/)
to participate
in the
survey.". Alain
6 Principles to Make Self-Driving Cars Work for Cities, Not Against Them
A. Schmitt, June 24 “Self-driving cars are coming, and maybe sooner than we think. But the question of how they will shape cities is still wide open. Could they lead to less traffic and parking as people stop owning cars and start sharing them? More sprawl as car travel becomes less of a hassle? More freedom to walk and bike on city streets, or less?… a statement of policy recommendations to guide the deployment of autonomous cars in cities [PDF]….” Read moreHmmm…Good recommendations, but they need to also extend beyond “Self-driving’ to “Driverless”. Alain
HERE, automotive companies move forward on car-to-cloud data standard
Press release,
June 29, "–
HERE... today
announced a
significant
step forward
in efforts to
drive a global
standard for
vehicle-to-cloud
data –HERE has
now submitted
the design for
a universal
data format
called
SENSORIS to
ERTICO – ITS
Europe, the
European
public/private
partnership
for
intelligent
transport
systems, which
has agreed to
continue as an
Innovation
Platform to
evolve it into
a standardized
interface
specification
for use
broadly across
the automotive
industry...
HERE believes
that pooling
analogous
vehicle data
from millions
of vehicles
will be a key
enabler for
highly and
fully
automated
driving,
ensuring that
each vehicle
has a near
real-time view
of road
conditions and
hazards that
can lead to
better driving
decisions
".." [Read mor](https://lts.cms.here.com/static-cloud-content/Newsroom/290616_HERE_automotive_companies_move_forward_on_car_to_cloud_data_standard.pdf)e Hmmm...Big
issue is who
becomes "[Big Brother](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Brother_%28Nineteen_Eighty-Four%29)"
in this "[Nineteen Eighty-Four](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four)".
Alain
Some other thoughts that deserve your attention
Uber, Lyft could get new overseer in California
C. Said, June 27, “…Now the state is considering having the California State Transportation Agency take over implementation and enforcement of those rules, as well as crafting new ones….”Read more Hmmm…???? More bureaucracy :-( . Alain
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
Recompiled
Old News &
Smiles:
Half-baked
stuff that
probably
doesn't
deserve your
time:
Uber Reportedly Shopping Hyundai For Self-Driving Fleet
D. Newcomb,
June 19,
"...Now,
according to
Maeil Business
News Korea,
Uber wants to
partner with
Hyundai on the
development of
self-driving
technology in
the
automaker's
home country,
and is also
poised to
place an order
for a huge
number of
Hyundai
vehicles. ..."
[Read more](http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougnewcomb/2016/06/19/uber-reportedly-shopping-hyundai-for-self-driving-fleet/#7d21d7943885) Hmmm...Uber need "Driverless" not "Self-Driving" BIG
difference.
Why are they
wasting their
time???? Some
other game is
being played.
Alain
Baidu to produce driverless cars in five years
Tianjin, June 27, “Search engine giant Baidu plans to mass-produce driverless cars in five years, said company president Zhang Yaqin on Monday…“ Read more Hmmm…Either poor translation or Zang Yaqin doesn’t appreciate the the capabilities needed for “Driverless”. He must mean “Self-driving” . Alain
###
###
C’mon Man! (These folks didn’t get/read
the memo)
Calendar of Upcoming Events:
ITE + ARRB Present Driverless Vehicles: Progress in the U.S. and Australia Webinar
Thursday, June
30, 2016,
6:00 PM - 7:30
PM (UTC-5:00)
Eastern Time
(US &
Canada)
Recent
Highlights of:
#
###
Who Will Build the Next Great Car Company?
E. Griffith, June 24, “…Also, he’s hit the decoy plenty of times. In 2012 he even did it in front of Ford’s board of directors. Back then the idea of self-driving cars looked, to Ford’s leadership, like a frivolous Silicon Valley moonshot. Four years later things have dramatically changed. Today Ford’s vehicle lineup features more than 30 options for semiautonomous features, including the automatic brakes I tested, and the company is aggressively working on cars that fully drive themselves. By year-end the company expects to have the largest fleet of autonomous test vehicles of any automaker.
Ford is not
alone. The
entire
automotive
industry is in
the midst of a
radical
transformation
that is
reshaping the
very
definition of
what it means
to be a car
company. There
is hype, hope,
fear, and
insecurity—and
at the center
of it all is
the
self-driving
car. Thanks to
cheap sensors,
powerful
machine-learning
technology,
and a kick in
the butt from
the likes of
Google and
Tesla Motors
, driverless
vehicles are
becoming a
sooner-than-you-think
reality...." [Read more](http://fortune.com/self-driving-cars-silicon-valley-detroit/) Hmmm...A very good summary of where the industry
stands with
respect to
Self-driving;
however, it
really doesn't
address
Driverless, (autonomousTaxi (aTaxi) shared-ride on-demand transit). It makes no
mention of the
low-speed [Easy Mile](http://easymile.com/), [2GetThere](http://www.2getthere.eu/),
[CityMobil2](http://www.citymobil2.eu/en/)approaches.
Fortune is
still seeing a
personal car
future and not
a
Mobility-on-Demand
future. That
would be way
too
disruptive.
See also the [intro video](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=video&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjOgvOwqMjNAhWD7D4KHaKBBboQtwIIJTAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2Fself-driving-cars-silicon-valley-detroit%2F&usg=AFQjCNEAKqTgIv3IkKMPgmuTWrldf5Wn0w&sig2=K7e6Mhjn1jDEYqvjwMklZw&bvm=bv.125596728,d.cWw) Alain
Planning for the Autonomous Vehicle Revolution
J. DeAngelis,
June 15,
"...autonomous
vehicles (AVs)
also stand to
disrupt the
norms of both
transportation
and land use
planning.
According to a
new report
from the
Florida State
University
Department of
Urban &
Regional
Planning
titled
Envisioning
Florida's
Future:
Transportation
and Land Use
in an
Automated
Vehicle World,
AVs may exert
as great an
influence on
the built
environment as
the mass
production of
the automobile
did in the
early to
middle 20th
century.
Parking
minimums,
street design,
rights of way,
development
demand,
signage and
signalization,
building
siting and
design, access
management,
and their
accompanying
norms and
standards have
the potential
to change
dramatically
over the next
40-50
years.a..." [Read more](https://www.planning.org/blog/blogpost/9105024/)Hmmm.... Land-use implications are THE big unknowns.
See report
next. Alain
It’s No Accident: Advocates Want to Speak of Car ‘Crashes’ Instead
M Richtel, May 22, “ Roadway fatalities are soaring at a rate not seen in 50 years, resulting from crashes, collisions and other incidents caused by drivers.
Just don't
call them
accidents
anymore.
That is the
position of a
growing number
of safety
advocates,
including
grass-roots
groups,
federal
officials and
state and
local leaders
across the
country. They
are
campaigning to
change a
100-year-old
mentality that
they say
trivializes
the single
most common
cause of
traffic
incidents:
human error.
"When you use
the word
'accident,'
it's like,
'God made it
happen,' "
Mark Rosekind,
the head of
the National
Highway
Traffic Safety Administration, said at a driver safety conference this month at the
Harvard School
of Public
Health. "In
our society,"
he added,
"language can
be
everything."
Almost all
crashes stem
from driver
behavior like
drinking,
distracted
driving and
other risky
activity.
About 6
percent are
caused by
vehicle
malfunctions,
weather and
other
factors...." [Read issue of SDC](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/23/science/its-no-accident-advocates-want-to-speak-of-car-crashes-instead.html?_r=1)
with this
article. Mark
is absolutely
correct here.
Language
matters and it
is NOT an
accident. it
is a Total
Poop Show!. Alain
Derailment of Amtrak passenger train 188, Philadelphia, PA, May 12, 2015 NTSB/ DCA15MR010
Public meeting of May 17 “… Executive Summary…This report addresses the following safety issues:
-
Crewmember situational awareness and management of multiple tasks….
-
Positive train control. In the accident area, positive train control had not yet been implemented at the time of the accident, but it has since been implemented. The NTSB found that the accident could have been avoided if positive train control or another control system had been in place to enforce the permanent speed restriction of 50 mph at the Franklin Junction curve.
Hmmm… Kudos to NTSB for finding “…the accident could have been avoided if positive train control or another control system had been in place to enforce…”
HOWEVER, given
that PCT was [mandated by Congress in 2008](https://www.fra.dot.gov/eLib/Details/L03588)
with a
deadline of
December 15,
2015 and that
6 months
before the
deadline PTC
had NOT been
implemented on
Amtrak's
highest volume
segment
(PHL-NYC) is
so
unacceptable
that this
deserved to
have been
their #1
bullet. NOT
some poor
train engineer
that was
simply trying
to do a job
made
enormously
more dangerous
and stressful
because Amtrak
management
failed to
implement in a
timely manner
what had been
mandated by
its "sugar
daddy"!! So
the NTSB
"threw" the
engineer
"under the
bus" and
essentially
all of the
news reports
pointed to the
engineer
rather than
Amtrak's
senior
(mis)management
([The Atlantic](http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2016/02/the-mystery-of-amtrak-188/458967/),
[NBC](http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Deadly-Amtrak-Crash-Philadelphia-NTSB-Cause-379762581.html),
[Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/ntsb-prepared-to-release-report-on-last-years-deadly-amtrak-wreck/2016/02/01/3c9f7e46-c837-11e5-88ff-e2d1b4289c2f_story.html), [WSJ](http://www.wsj.com/articles/ntsb-says-engineer-in-2015-philadelphia-amtrak-crash-lost-situational-awareness-1463497474),
[NYT](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/31/magazine/the-wreck-of-amtrak-188.html?_r=0)
etc. Why
didn't the NYT
do a long
story on why
Amtrak
management
didn't install
PTC in a
timely
manner???)
My point here
is larger in
that this same
issue exists
in the rest of
the transit
industry where crash-avoidance technology exists today that can substantially reduce
collisions and
do so while
printing money
for the
transit
industry. [Dr. Jerome Lutin and I](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/LutinKornhauser_2016TRB_BusACAS.pdf) have
pointed out to
deaf ears that
automated
collision
avoidance
systems exist
today for
buses whose
costs are
substantially
less than the
net present
value of the
liability that
these buses
can be
expected to
impose on
society. This
is about the cash
that a
hopelessly
bankrupt
transit
industry has
to pay out
because it
isn't
installing
existing crash
avoidance
technology
that is
available
today. On top
of that cash
are all of the
societal
benefits
associated
with
eliminating
collisions.
There is no
rush (not even
a faint
heart-beat) by
the industry
to do this.
FTA is totally
asleep, yet
bus drivers
continue to be
placed in some
of the most
stressful and
unsafe working
conditions
without the
help that such
technologies
can deliver.
I can't be
more blunt...
The major
cause of
accidents in
the transit
industry is
the fact that
the management
of the transit
industry is
not installing
in its fleets
existing and
available
automated
collision
avoidance
systems. What
is even more
derelict is
that new bus
procurement
don't include
such
provisions
either. When
is the finger
going to
finally be
pointed
towards
"Management"
and the FTA
instead of the
poor bus
driver or
train
engineer? NTSB
is getting
close by at
least
putting it
2nd, but if
the public is
to become
aware, it will
need to rise
to the top
bullet. Alain
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Chenyi Chen
PhD
Dissertation ,
"...the key
part of the
thesis, a
direct
perception
approach is
proposed to
drive a car in
a highway
environment.
In this
approach, an
input image is
mapped to a
small number
of key
perception
indicators
that directly
relate to the
affordance of
a road/traffic
state for
driving....." [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/Theses/chenyiPhDfinal_ExtractingCognitionOutOfImagesForThePurposeOfAutonomousDriving.pdf)
Hmmm..[FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Presentations/ChenyiFPO.pdf),
Establishing a
foundation for
image-based
autonomous
driving using
DeepLearning
Neural
Networks
trained in
virtual
environments.
Very
promising. Alain
###
Beverly Hills to Develop Autonomous Vehicles
M. Walker
April 15, "The
Beverly Hills
City Council
voted
unanimously
this week to
adopt a
resolution to
develop
driverless
vehicles that
will provide
public
transportation
throughout the
city.
The program is
part of
Beverly Hills
mayor John
Mirisch's plan
for a
municipally
owned fleet of
autonomous
vehicles that
would function
as an
on-demand car
shuttle
service to and
from any
address in the
city. .." [Read more](http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/beverly-hills-develop-autonomous-vehicles-884316) Hmmm...Communities
all around the
nation should
follow what
BH, Austin and
a few other
communities
are doing.
There is an
opportunity to
begin
on-demand
shared-ride
"21st Century
Public
Transit"
mobility using
volunteer
drivers to
initiate and
thoroughly
demonstrate
this low-cost
mobility in
preparation
for a massive
roll-out that
can take place
once
driverless
cars can
extend/replace
the volunteer
drivers. [Staff report](http://www.beverlyhills.org/cbhfiles/storage/files/148071911817855902/StaffReportAVs3-22-16.pdf) on
the matter; [another article](http://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/beverly-hills-votes-to-create-autonomous-vehicle-program/?_escaped_fragment_=#); [landing page for the program](http://www.beverlyhills.org/living/autonomousvehicles/#CNTSTN_2296).
Alain
###
N.J. superintendent killed while jogging was struck by student late for trip
K. Shea, April 19, “…The Robbinsville High School student who was driving the car that struck and killed the district’s superintendent Tuesday morning was late for a school trip when the crash occurred, according to two sources involved in the investigation….” Read more Hmmm…Most tragic in so many dimensions!!! HOWEVER, it was NOT the student that STRUCK the Superintendent, it was the CAR. AND the CAR needs to start being held responsible for ALLOWING such tragedies to ruin so many lives. It is very likely that this tragedy could have been averted had the car been equipped with an automated collision avoidance system and/or lane-keeping system. Given the availability of these “tragedy avoidance systems”, we should all be asking why this CAR wasn’t equipped with such a system and why all cars aren’t so equipped. Certainly innocent runners and dogs need to be asking such questions. So too, that young lady’s car insurance company; it must be muttering: “shouda bought her that upgrade”. What about the car companies themselves who are largely just sitting on the technology or the dealerships that don’t feel compelled to espouse the benefits of such technology while pushing more “horsepower” and “Corinthian Leather” (and worse yet: “AooleCarXYZ” that distracts drivers). We all know that Washington is broken. Them staying out of the way is probably best (although aggressively applying better human-visible paint/laneMarkings and human-readable signs would go a long way to helping both attentive drivers and automated lane-keeping systems). Everyone else has fundamental self-interest at stake and each needs to stop pointing the finger to the frail human driver. We have the technology and the the self-interest to make mobility substantially safer. Let’s really get on with it. It’s time! Alain
Automated Vehicle Operational Guidance Public Meeting
April 8,"At
this meeting,
NHTSA sought
input on
planned
operational
guidelines for
the safe
deployment of
automated
vehicles (AV).
Of high
importance to
the agency is
information on
the roadway
scenarios and
operational
environments
that highly
automated
vehicles will
need to
address, and
the associated
design and
evaluation
processes and
methods needed
to ensure that
AV systems are
able to detect
and
appropriately
react to these
scenarios" [Read more](http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-meetings-automated-vehicles-03112016) Hmmm...[Watch testimony](https://youtu.be/J_RvYZR_HLA)
, especially:
[testimony of Dr. Jerome Lutin](https://youtu.be/J_RvYZR_HLA?t=17014). Alain
Hearing focus of SF 2569 Autonomous vehicles task force establishment and demonstration project for people with disabilities
March 23 Hmmm... [Watch the video of the Committee Meeting](http://mnsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=1&clip_id=235).
The testimony
is Excellent
and very
compelling!
Also see [Self-Driving Minnesota](http://www.selfdrivingmn.org/)
Alain
U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
Press Release,
Mar 17, NHTSA
& IIHS
"announced
today a
historic
commitment by
20 automakers
representing
more than 99
percent of the
U.S. auto
market to make
automatic
emergency
braking a
standard
feature on
virtually all
new cars no
later than
NHTSA's 2022
reporting
year, which
begins Sept 1,
2022.
Automakers
making the
commitment are
Audi, BMW, FCA
US LLC, Ford,
General
Motors, Honda,
Hyundai,
Jaguar Land
Rover, Kia,
Maserati,
Mazda,
Mercedes-Benz,
Mitsubishi
Motors,
Nissan,
Porsche,
Subaru, Tesla
Motors Inc.,
Toyota,
Volkswagen and
Volvo Car USA.
The
unprecedented
commitment
means that
this important
safety
technology will be available to more consumers more quickly than
would be
possible
through the
regulatory
process...The
commitment
takes into
account the
evolution of
AEB
technology. It
requires a
level of
functionality
that is in
line with
research and
crash data
demonstrating
that such
systems are
substantially
reducing
crashes, but does not stand in the way of improved capabilities
that are just
beginning to
emerge.
The
performance
measures are
based on real
world data
showing that
vehicles with
this level of
capability are
avoiding
crashes..[Watch NHTSA video on AEB](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Src2jhS4wcA)
[Download AEB video from IIHS](https://www.hightail.com/download/ZWJVbGtNR3NrWTg4RmNUQw)[Read more](http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-iihs-commitment-on-aeb-03172016) Hmmmm...Fantastic! Automakers leading with
regulatory
process
staying out of
the way.
Alain
GM Buying Self-Driving Tech Startup for More Than $1 Billion
D. Patrick Mar 11,”General Motors GM 1.43% this morning announced that it will acquire Cruise Automation, a San Francisco-based developer of autonomous vehicle technology. No financial terms were disclosed, but Fortune has learned from a source close to the situation that the deal is valued at “north of $1 billion,” in a combination of cash and stock.
Talks between
the two
companies
originally
related to a
strategic
investment by
GM in Cruise,
which was
planning to
raise a new
round of
venture
capital
funding. But
that quickly
morphed into
an acquisition
discussion
with the
entire
agreement
getting hashed
out in less
than six
weeks. [Read more](http://fortune.com/2016/03/11/gm-buying-self-driving-tech-startup-for-more-than-1-billion/)Hmmmm...That sets the bar. Reminiscent of [AOL paying $1.1B for MapQuest](http://www.ecommercetimes.com/story/2068.html)
resulting in [NavTeq getting $8.1B from Nokia](http://mashable.com/2007/10/01/nokia-navteq/#CnEKJL0cUOqM)
followed by [Here getting $3B from MB et al](http://mashable.com/2007/10/01/nokia-navteq/#CnEKJL0cUOqM).
[Deja vu all over again!](http://yogiberramuseum.org/just-for-fun/yogisms/)
Very
interesting
:-) Alain
THE ROAD NOT TAKEN: How we found (and lost) the dream of Personal Rapid Transit
A. Robertson,
Feb 10 , Feb.
"...Half a
century after
its heyday,
the Alden
StaRRcar
clearly wasn't
made for its
world. It
looks like a
white flatiron
with wheels or
a sleek,
plastic
bullet,
dwarfed by the
regal sedans
of 1960s
Detroit. It
belongs in one
of Buckminster
Fuller's domed
cities, a
vehicle for
traveling
under the
geodesics of a
bubble-topped
Manhattan. Its
future wasn't
one of
highways, but
of narrow
cement tracks
looping
gracefully
between city
and suburb,
connecting
increasingly
alienated
parts of the
American
landscape...
Once
considered a
key to solving
urban blight,
the StaRRcar
was part of a
public transit
revolution
that never was
— but one that
would help
launch one of
the weirdest
and most
politicized
public
infrastructure
experiments of
the 20th
century. It's
an old idea
that today, in
an age of
self-driving
cars, seems by
turns
impractically
retro and
remarkably
prescient...
PRT's
invention is
attributed to
a
transportation
expert named
Donn Fichter,
but the
central idea
was conceived,
remixed, and
adapted by
many in the
1950s and
1960s. While
the details
varied, the
prototypical
PRT system was
a network of
narrow
guideways
populated by
small
passenger
pods. When
commuters
arrived, they
would hit a
button to
select a
destination,
calling one of
the pods like
a taxi. Then,
instead of
running on a
set line, the
pod would use
guideways like
a freeway
system,
routing around
stations in
order to take
passengers
directly to
their final
stop.
The system was
designed to be
everything
that existing
public
transportation
wasn't. Pods
would carry
only as many
people as an
average car,
guaranteeing a
nearly private
ride. Riders
wouldn't need
to follow a
timetable or
wait for other
people to
enter and exit
the system.
Because the
pods would
only be
dispatched on
demand, cities
could run
service to
many
low-traffic
areas without
worrying about
waste. There
were no
drivers to
train or pay,
and the pods
could run
quietly on
electrical
power instead
of with fossil
fuels...
Multiple plans
for personal
rapid transit
fell through,
whether
because of
budget
problems,
logistical
issues, or
political
power
struggles....
And as in the
'60s, we're
talking about
whether
self-driving
vehicles could
spell the end
of private
cars...."[Read more](file:///C:/Users/alaink/Desktop/THE%20ROAD%20NOT%20TAKEN:%20How%20we%20found%20%28and%20lost%29%20the%20dream%20of%20Personal%20Rapid%20Transit)Hmmmm...A must read. Pretty much as I remember it.
I lived much
of it,
including
designing
10,000
station,
10,000 mile
PRT networks
that could
serve all of
New Jersey's
needs for
personal
mobility. The
good news was
that the
area-wide
systems would
provide great
mobility for
all. The bad
news: No
viable way to
start. The
best starting
places could
each be
readily served
by
conventional
systems with
no technology
risk. Without
a place to
start, PRT
never got a
chance to
flourish in
the vast areas
that are
un-servable by
conventional
technology.
Moreover, PRT
needed the
diversion of
public sector
capital funds
that weres already in the back pocket
of those
pedaling the
conventional
technologies.
Consequently,
the personal
auto has
reigned on.
Today is different. With PRT, even the first vehicle needed a couple of stations and interconnecting guideway (and all of the discussion and heartache was about the location and cost of those initial stations and guideway). With autonomous taxis sharing existing roads, one can begin with a single vehicle capable of serving many existing places without needing to pay-for/justify any infrastructure. That is today’s fundamental opportunity, in contrast to PRT’s monumental infrastructure burden even for one vehicle. That’s why aTaxis are destined to finally deliver PRT’s utopian mobility to all and substantially transform our cities and suburbs. Alain
February 18,
2016
Motor Vehicle Deaths Increase by Largest Percent in 50 Years
Press Release
Feb 16 "With
continued
lower gasoline
prices and an
improving
economy
resulting in
an estimated 3.5%
increase
in
motor-vehicle
mileage, the
number of
motor-vehicle
deaths in 2015
totaled
38,300,
up 8% from
2014.
The 2015
estimate is
provisional
and may be
revised when
more data are
available. The
total for 2015
was up 8% from
the 2013
figure. The
annual total
for 2014 was
35,398, a less
than 0.5%
increase from
2013. The 2013
figure was 3%
lower than
2012. The
estimated
annual
population
death rate is
11.87 deaths
per 100,000
population, an
increase of 7%
from the 2014
rate. The
estimated
annual mileage
death rate is
1.22 deaths
per 100
million
vehicle miles
traveled, an
increase of 5%
from the 2014
rate. [Read more](http://www.nsc.org/NewsDocuments/2016/mv-fatality-report-1215.pdf)Hmmmm...This is REALLY BAD news. Come on insurance.
This is
costing you
money!
Accident rates
going up means
that your
actuarials are
behind, your
regulated
pricing lags
and you are
losing money.
To get ahead
of your
actuarials,
you MUST
incentivize
the adoption
of automated
collision
avoidance
systems.
You'll then do
very well,
thank you AND
help society.
Alain
Budget of the U.S. Government, FY 2017
Feb. 9, “…(3) Accelerate the integration of autonomous vehicles, low-carbon technologies, and intelligent transportation systems into our infrastructure….
- Providing almost $400 million on average per year in funding over the next 10 years for the deployment of self-driving vehicles. Investments would help develop connected infrastructure and smart sensors that can communicate with autonomous vehicles, support R&D to ensure these vehicles are safe and road ready, and expand at-scale deployment projects to provide “proving grounds” for autonomous self-driving and connected vehicles in urban and highway settings.
Read moreHmmmm…major victory…not only: “…for autonomous self-driving…”, bit also stated before: “… and connected…”. Alain
###
Obama’s $4 Billion Plan for Self-Driving Cars Will Make Google Very Happy
M. Bergen, Jan
14 "The Obama
Administration
has seen the
self-driving
future, and
it's jumping
aboard. At
the Detroit
auto show on
Thursday
morning, U.S.
Transportation
Secretary
Anthony Foxx
will unveil a
plan to
develop a
national
blueprint for
autonomous
driving
technology
within the
next six
months. He
will also
announce that
President
Obama is
planning to
insert $4
billion into
the 2017
budget for a
10-year plan
to support and
"accelerate"
vehicle
automation
projects.
"We are on the
cusp of a new
era in
automotive
technology
with enormous
potential to
save lives,
reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions, and
transform
mobility for
the American
people,"
Secretary Foxx
said in a
statement. ...But here's the part of Foxx's
talk that
really matters
for Google:
These national
rules will
allow fully
driverless
cars..."
[Read More](http://recode.net/2016/01/14/obamas-4-billion-plan-for-self-driving-cars-will-make-google-very-happy/) Hmmm...
A [few months ago](http://www.its.dot.gov/press/2015/ngv_tech_announcement.htm)
it was $42M
for Connected
Vehicles.
Today it is
100x for
automated
vehicles!
Finally
Secretary
Foxx.."[YES! YES! JESUS H. TAP-DANCING CHRIST... I HAVE SEEN THE LIGHT](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX5tfRdkoY0)"
(Blue
Brothers)
Yea!!!!! :-)
Alain
Google Pairs With Ford To Build Self-Driving Cars
J. Hyde &
S. Carty, Dec.
21 "Google and
Ford will
create a joint
venture to
build
self-driving
vehicles with
Google's
technology, a
huge step by
both companies
toward a new
business of
automated ride
sharing,
...According
to three
sources
familiar with
the plans, the
partnership is
set to be
announced by
Ford at the
Consumer
Electronics
Show in
January. By
pairing with
Google, Ford
gets a massive
boost in
self-driving
software
development;
while the
automaker has
been
experimenting
with its own
systems for
years, it only
revealed plans
this month to
begin testing
on public
streets in
California....
Google already
has several
links to Ford;
the head of
the
self-driving
car project,
John Krafcik,
worked for 14
years at Ford,
including a
stint as head
of truck
engineering,
and several
other ex-Ford
employees work
in the unit as
well. Former
Ford chief
executive Alan
Mulally joined
Google's board
last year.
And Ford
executives
have been
clear for
years that the
company was
ready to
embrace a
future where
cars were sold
as on-demand
services. Ford
CEO Mark
Fields has
repeatedly
said Ford was
thinking of
itself "as a
mobility
company," and
what that
would mean for
its business"
[Read more](https://www.yahoo.com/autos/google-pairs-with-ford-to-1326344237400118.html) Hmmm...Not
surprising and
not exclusive.
:-) Alain
Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars
Video similar
to part of
Adam's
Luncheon talk
@ 2015 Florida
Automated
Vehicle
Symposium on
Dec 1. [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4) especially
at the 13:12
mark.
Compelling;
especially
after the 60
Minutes
segment
above! Also
see his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
Alain
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