2016-08-02

August 02, 2016Newsletter archive →

M. Ramsey, July 26, "A key supplier of semiautonomous car technology ended a supply agreement with Tesla Motors Inc. following a high-profile traffic fatality in May involving one of the Silicon Valley company's electric vehicles.

Mobileye NV said it would no longer provide its computer chips and algorithms to Tesla after a current contract ends due to disagreements about how the technology was deployed. Mobileye provides core technology for Tesla's Autopilot system, which allows cars to drive themselves in limited conditions.... Read more

And in Mobileye's Short Trip with Tesla: D. Gallagher, July 26, "In the emerging business of autonomous driving, even the safer road isn't free of potholes....In explaining its move, Mobileye suggested that protecting its reputation was at least part of the rationale. Below is what the company said on the call:... Read more

NTSB, July 26, "...Tesla Model S, traveling eastbound on US Highway 27A ...struck and passed beneath a 2014 Freightliner Cascadia truck-tractor in combination with a 53-foot semitrailer. At the time of the collision, the combination vehicle was making a left turn from westbound US-27A across the two eastbound travel lanes....The Tesla struck the right side of the semitrailer, approximately 23 feet forward from the end of the trailer. Damage from the collision was consistent with a 90 degree angle of impact....Tesla system performance data downloaded from the car indicated that vehicle speed just prior to impact was 74 mph. System performance data also revealed that the driver was operating the car using the advanced driver assistance features Traffic-Aware Cruise Control and Autosteer lane keeping assistance. The car was also equipped with automatic emergency braking that is designed to automatically apply the brakes to reduce the severity of or assist in avoiding frontal collisions.

As a result of the crash, the rear hatch frame separated and folded back over the crushed rear window. Other than the roof structure—and the front bumper components that engaged the pole—the main body of the car was generally intact, as shown in figure 3. ... Read more

D. Shepardson, July 29, "Tesla Motors Inc told U.S. Senate Commerce Committee staff it is considering two theories that may help explain what led to the May 7 fatal crash...at an hour-long briefing on Thursday that they were still trying to understand the "system failure" that led to the crash, the source said....Tesla is considering whether the radar and camera input for the vehicle's automatic emergency braking system failed to detect the truck trailer or the automatic braking system's radar may have detected the trailer but discounted this input as part of a design to "tune out" structures such as bridges to avoid triggering false braking, the source said. Tesla declined to discuss the meeting except to say it did not suggest that the vehicle's cameras nor radar "caused" the accident. It was not clear if other factors were under investigation.... Read more

D. Reisinger, July 21, "The Apple Car doesn't even technically exist, but it's already been delayed, according to a new report....

In a look at brothers working on Apple's AAPL 1.70% ultra-secret car project said to be called Project Titan, technology site The Information revealed that Apple has delayed its vehicle to 2021. Several rumors have claimed Apple had planned a 2020 launch for Apple Car, but The Information's sources say that the project has "run into challenges," and that a person who had worked on the Project Titan team confirmed Apple has pushed back its target launch from 2020 to 2021.... Read more

G. Coppola, July 23, "Bearish bets against Mobileye NV are receding after the maker of chips and software for driverless cars said it would team up with BMW AG and Intel Corp. to deliver fully-autonomous cars by 2021.

Traders cut short interest on Mobileye, at one point the world's most-shorted software stock, to 17 percent of shares outstanding last week, near the lowest level since September. It peaked at 22 percent on June 6. The stock has doubled since hitting a low of $24.54 in February. Investors say Mobileye's pact with BMW shows it has gone beyond advanced driver-assistance systems to establish itself as a key partner for automakers as they step up investment in the race to achieve fully-autonomous driving. The stock's meteoric rise after a $1 billion initial public offering in 2014 made it a target for short sellers like Citron Research, which argued its valuation implied a quasi-monopoly status for what was essentially an early-to-the-game chipmaker with no moat to fend off competition.... Read more

F. Lambert, July 29, "When we reported on the European Public Road Authority supporting Tesla's Autopilot system following some concerns over the use of the word 'Autopilot' and the program being in 'beta' earlier this month, we also mentioned that a bigger concern could be Mercedes calling its E-Class with 'Drive-Pilot' a 'self-driving car' in an advert, which is significantly more misleading than Tesla's 'Autopilot'. Now we learn that the automaker is pulling the ad following Consumer Reports complaint to the FTC.

Mercedes' Drive Pilot, like Tesla's Autopilot, is a semi-autonomous driver assist system with features like active cruise control and automatic steering on highways, but the performance of the two systems are reportedly extremely different. Read more

July 27, "As advocates for motor vehicle safety and truth in the marketplace, we urge you to carefully scrutinize auto manufacturers' marketing related to automated technologies. Today, we ask for your attention to Mercedes-Benz's advertising for the 2017 E-Class, including a TV ad currently airing called "The Future," which markets automated features available in the 2017 EClass. This ad is likely to mislead a reasonable consumer by representing the E-Class as self-driving when it is not. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) should take enforcement action against companies that falsely, misleadingly, or unfairly claim that their cars drive autonomously when they actually require the steady control of a human driver." Read more

A. Roy, July 27, "It's a DrivePilot vs. AutoPilot cage match fight to the death—potentially yours...." Read more

L. Hoook, July 31, "Uber is preparing to pour $500m into an ambitious global mapping project as it seeks to wean itself off dependence on Google Maps and pave the way for driverless cars....By developing its own maps Uber could eventually reduce its reliance on Google Maps, which currently power the Uber app in most of the world....Last year Uber hired one of the world's leading digital mapping experts, Brian McClendon, who previously ran Google Maps and helped create Google Earth. Read more

M. Scribner, July 28, "...One problem ... is found in states' following-too-closely (FTC) statutes, which outlaw many automated vehicle platooning applications. Automated vehicle platooning—often referred to as road trains, connected automated vehicles, or cooperative automated vehicles—is one of the more promising potential functions of automated vehicle technology. Platooned automated vehicles can travel close together at highway speeds, mitigating traffic congestion, improving fuel economy, and increasing vehicle throughput without costly physical roadway capacity expansions. This report is based upon an inventory of state laws as published rather than as interpreted by the courts...." Read more

M. Martinez, Aug 1, "Delphi Automotive PLC on Monday said it is launching a self-driving car pilot program in Singapore that will have driverless cars ferrying passengers and goods around a business park in the island nation by decade's end....Testing will last for three years, with operational service targeted by 2022. Delphi expects to announce later this year plans for similar testing in North America and Europe.... Read more

J. Reiner, July 30, "Congratulations on the purchase of your 2017 Golem Zombie, the world's most technologically advanced self-driving vehicle. This Quick Start manual will get you going to enjoy the best-in-class features that only the fully autonomous Golem Zombie provides, liberating you to enjoy the open road without the responsibilities of driving.

Unlike other self-driving vehicles, Golem's autopilot engineering and contextual cultural awareness sensors give you the power to select from 457 factory-programmed Driving Modes by simply engaging the LED dashboard menu through voice-activated commands. Some of the Zombie's popular Driving Modes include:..." Read more

E. Martin, S. Shaheen, "...Car2go is currently the largest carsharing operator in the world, with a presence in nine countries and nearly 30 cities. It operates as a one-way instant access carsharing system within a pre-defined urban zone. Members can find an unoccupied parked vehicle, access it immediately, and use it to meet their local travel needs. As long as the vehicle is parked within the operating zone, users only pay for the time that they drive. As a one-way system, car2go provides flexibility to the user. There are questions as to whether one-way carsharing increases overall vehicle miles traveled (VMT), by facilitating easier one-way travel (and automotive commuting) within urban environments. The results of this study suggest that access to ubiquitous shared automobiles allows some residents to get rid of a car or avoid acquiring one altogether. These actions taken by a minority of members have VMT-reducing effects that are estimated to exceed the additional driving that does take place within car2go vehicles....

Most of the car2go population appears to use it for a small number of trips a year to satisfy incidental mobility needs. This activity generally adds to driving that is additional or would have otherwise occurred with another automobile. The analysis also found that a minority of the population uses car2go as a substitution for personal automobiles as they either sold personal vehicles owned or suppressed the acquisition of a private auto. The impacts of these changes are large relative to the overall increase in driving that is caused by car2go activity. Thus, the results of this analysis suggest that car2go is on net reducing vehicles that would be owned by households, reducing driving, and thus lowering GHG emissions. Read more

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

N. Shirouzu, Apr 25, "Tomorrow's cars will be all-electric, self-driving, connected to high-speed communications networks ... and free. And probably Chinese....LeEco hopes to start producing a version of the LeSEE in a few years at a plant being built near Las Vegas by U.S. strategic partner Faraday Future, in which Jia has invested. Those cars would be sold in the United States and China. Further ahead, the plan is to produce electric cars in China, too, probably through a partnership with BAIC Motor. Read more

July 21, 2016

E. Musk, July 20 "...Integrate Energy Generation and Storage

Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app....

Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport...

With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product....In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla...With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

Autonomy

As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.

Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators....I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability....It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta"....

Sharing

When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination. You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on... Read more

July 14, 2016

S. Musil, July 12, "The most recent crash involved a Model X near the small town of Whitehall, Montana, on Sunday morning, according to the Detroit Free Press. Neither the driver nor the passenger was injured in the single-vehicle crash, the Montana Highway Patrol told the newspaper....The car failed to detect an obstacle in the road, according to a thread posted on the Tesla Motors Club forum by someone who said they're a friend of the driver. The thread included photos showing the damage to the vehicle.

Tesla said Tuesday that it appears the driver in the crash was using the system improperly.

"The data suggests that the driver's hands were not on the steering wheel, as no force was detected on the steering wheel for over 2 minutes after autosteer was engaged (even a very small amount of force, such as one hand resting on the wheel, will be detected)," a Tesla spokesman said in a statement. "This is contrary to the terms of use that are agreed to when enabling the feature and the notification presented in the instrument cluster each time it is activated.

"As road conditions became increasingly uncertain, the vehicle again alerted the driver to put his hands on the wheel. He did not do so and shortly thereafter the vehicle collided with a post on the edge of the roadway," the spokesman said. He added that the Autopilot feature was being used on an undivided mountain road despite being designed for use on a divided highway in slow-moving traffic.... Read more

2016

Editorial Board, July 11, "A recent fatal crash in Florida involving a Tesla Model S is an example of how a new technology designed to make cars safer could, in some cases, make them more dangerous. These risks, however, could be minimized with better testing (

Such warnings aren't sufficient, though; some Tesla drivers, as shown in videos on YouTube, have even gotten into the back seat while the car was moving. Such reckless behavior threatens not just the drivers but everyone else on the road, too. (Absolutely!)... If that system (V2V) had been in place, Mr. Brown might have survived. (Sure, but Mr Brown would have had to wait more than his normal expected life span before that system would have been adopted by more than 70% of all vehicles for it to have better than a "coin flip" chance of helping him. What would have helped Mr. Brown is if the Automated Emergency Braking system worked on his Tesla, or if the truck driver had seen him coming (not become distracted) and had not "failed to yield".) Federal officials could take lessons from the history of airbags and the lack of strong regulations. (This is a VERY appropriate and relevant lesson!)... The agency does not yet have regulations for driverless cars or cars that have driver assistance systems. But when officials do put rules in place, they will have to update them regularly as they learn about how the technology works in practice. Automation should save lives. But nobody should expect these vehicles to be risk-free. (This is very wise. They should also immediately focus on Automated Emergency Braking systems which are the foundation of any Self-driving or Driverless systems.) Read more

On May 7, 2016 at about 4:40pm EDT, there was a crash between a Tesla and a Class 8 Tractor-Trailer. The accident is depicted in the Diagram from the Police Report: HSMV Crash Report # 85234095. (1) Google Earth images from the site.
The driver of the Tesla was Joshua Brown. "No citations have been issued, but the initial accident report from the FHP indicates the truck driver "failed to yield right-of-way."" (2)
Hmmm....No Citations??? Did the truck have a data recorder? Was the truck impounded, if so, how is the truck driver making a living since the crash? Why was his truck not equipped with sensors that can warn him of collision risks at intersections? As I've written, driving is one of the most dangerous occupations. Why isn't OSHA concerned about improving the environment of these workers? Why doesn't ATRI (the American Trucking Association's research arm recognize the lack availability/adoption of "SmartDrivingTruck technology" as one of its Critical Issues? Why didn't his insurance agent encourage/convince him to equip his truck with collision risk sensors? If they aren't commercially available, why hasn't his insurance company invested/promoted/lobbied for their development? These low-volume rural highway intersections are very dangerous. Technology could help.

"...(the truck driver)...said he saw the Tesla approaching in the left, eastbound lane. Then it crossed to the right lane and struck his trailer. "I don't know why he went over to the slow lane when he had to have seen me," he said...." (2)

"...the vehicle was on a divided highway with Autopilot engaged when a tractor trailer drove across the highway perpendicular to the Model S. Neither Autopilot nor the driver noticed the white side of the tractor trailer against a brightly lit sky, so the brake was not applied. The high ride height of the trailer combined with its positioning across the road and the extremely rare circumstances of the impact caused the Model S to pass under the trailer, with the bottom of the trailer impacting the windshield of the Model S. Had the Model S impacted the front or rear of the trailer, even at high speed, its advanced crash safety system would likely have prevented serious injury as it has in numerous other similar incidents..." (3). Not sure how Tesla knows what Joshua Brown saw or did not see. Events prior to the crash unfolded over many seconds. Tesla must have precise data on the car's speed and steering angle, video for those many seconds prior to the crash, as well as, what it was "seeing" from MobilEye's cameras and radar data. At no time prior to the crash did it see anything crossing its intended travel lane? More important, why didn't the truck driver see the Tesla? WHAT WAS HE DOING? What was the truck doing? How slow was it going? Hopefully there was a data speed recorder on the truck. Was the truck impounded, if so, how is the truck driver making a living since the crash?

"Problem Description: A fatal highway crash involving a 2015 Tesla Model S which, according to Tesla, was operating with automated driving systems ("Autopilot") engaged, calls for an examination of the design and performance of any driving aids in use at the time of the crash." (4). Not to be picky, but the initiator of the crash was the failure to yield by the truck driver. Why isn't this human failure the most fundamental "Problem Description"? If "driving aids" were supposed to "bail out" the truck driver's failure to yield, why isn't the AEB system's "design and performance" being examined? AutoPilot's responsibility is to keep the Tesla from steering off the road (and, as a last resort, yield to the AEB). The focus should be on AEBs. How many other Tesla drivers have perished that didn't have AutoPilot on, but had AEB? How many drivers have perished of other cars that have AEB? Seems as if this crash was more about an emergency automated systems failing to apply the brakes, rather than a driver not having his hands-on-wheel. Unfortunately, it is likely that we will eventually have a fatality in which an "AutoPilot" will fail to keep a "Tesla" on the road (or in a "correct" lane), but from what is known so far, this does not seem to be the crash.
"What we learn here is that Mobileye's system in Tesla's Autopilot does gather the information from the vehicle's sensors, primarily the front facing camera and radar, but while it gathers the data, Mobileye's tech can't (or not well enough until 2018) recognize the side of vehicles and therefore, it can't work in a situation where braking is required to stop a Tesla from hitting the side of another vehicle.

It seems that all of the other stuff about DVD player, watching movies, previous postings on YouTube is noise. Automated Collision Avoidance Systems and their Automated Emergency Braking sub-system MUST be more robust a mitigating "failed to yield right-of-way" situations irrespective of the "failure to yield" derived from a human action (as seems to have occurred in this crash) or an "autoPilot" (which doesn't seem to be the case in this crash). Alain

E. Griffith, June 24, "...Also, he's hit the decoy plenty of times. In 2012 he even did it in front of Ford's board of directors. Back then the idea of self-driving cars looked, to Ford's leadership, like a frivolous Silicon Valley moonshot. Four years later things have dramatically changed. Today Ford's vehicle lineup features more than 30 options for semiautonomous features, including the automatic brakes I tested, and the company is aggressively working on cars that fully drive themselves. By year-end the company expects to have the largest fleet of autonomous test vehicles of any automaker.

Ford is not alone. The entire automotive industry is in the midst of a radical transformation that is reshaping the very definition of what it means to be a car company. There is hype, hope, fear, and insecurity—and at the center of it all is the self-driving car. Thanks to cheap sensors, powerful machine-learning technology, and a kick in the butt from the likes of Google and Tesla Motors, driverless vehicles are becoming a sooner-than-you-think reality.... Read more

2016

Public meeting of May 17 "... Executive Summary...This report addresses the following safety issues:

Crewmember situational awareness and management of multiple tasks....
Positive train control. In the accident area, positive train control had not yet been implemented at the time of the accident, but it has since been implemented. The NTSB found that the accident could have been avoided if positive train control or another control system had been in place to enforce the permanent speed restriction of 50 mph at the Franklin Junction curve.
... Read more

Chenyi Chen PhD Dissertation, "...the key part of the thesis, a direct perception approach is proposed to drive a car in a highway environment. In this approach, an input image is mapped to a small number of key perception indicators that directly relate to the affordance of a road/traffic state for driving....." Read more

K. Shea, April 19, "...The Robbinsville High School student who was driving the car that struck and killed the district's superintendent Tuesday morning was late for a school trip when the crash occurred, according to two sources involved in the investigation...." Read more

March 23

Press Release, Mar 17, NHTSA & IIHS "announced today a historic commitment by 20 automakers representing more than 99 percent of the U.S. auto market to make automatic emergency braking a standard feature on virtually all new cars no later than NHTSA's 2022 reporting year, which begins Sept 1, 2022. Automakers making the commitment are Audi, BMW, FCA US LLC, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar Land Rover, Kia, Maserati, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan, Porsche, Subaru, Tesla Motors Inc., Toyota, Volkswagen and Volvo Car USA. The unprecedented commitment means that this important safety technology will be available to more consumers more quickly than would be possible through the regulatory process...The commitment takes into account the evolution of AEB technology. It requires a level of functionality that is in line with research and crash data demonstrating that such systems are substantially reducing crashes, but does not stand in the way of improved capabilities that are just beginning to emerge. The performance measures are based on real world data showing that vehicles with this level of capability are avoiding crashes.. Watch NHTSA video on AEB Download AEB video from IIHS Read more

Press Release Feb 16 "With continued lower gasoline prices and an improving economy resulting in an estimated 3.5% increase in motor-vehicle mileage, the number of motor-vehicle deaths in 2015 totaled 38,300, up 8% from 2014.

The 2015 estimate is provisional and may be revised when more data are available. The total for 2015 was up 8% from the 2013 figure. The annual total for 2014 was 35,398, a less than 0.5% increase from 2013. The 2013 figure was 3% lower than 2012. The estimated annual population death rate is 11.87 deaths per 100,000 population, an increase of 7% from the 2014 rate. The estimated annual mileage death rate is 1.22 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles traveled, an increase of 5% from the 2014 rate. Read more

M. Bergen, Jan 14 "The Obama Administration has seen the self-driving future, and it's jumping aboard. At the Detroit auto show on Thursday morning, U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx will unveil a plan to develop a national blueprint for autonomous driving technology within the next six months. He will also announce that President Obama is planning to insert $4 billion into the 2017 budget for a 10-year plan to support and "accelerate" vehicle automation projects.

"We are on the cusp of a new era in automotive technology with enormous potential to save lives, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and transform mobility for the American people," Secretary Foxx said in a statement. ...But here's the part of Foxx's talk that really matters for Google: These national rules will allow fully driverless cars..." Read More

J. Hyde & S. Carty,
Dec. 21 "Google and Ford will create a joint venture to build self-driving vehicles with Google's technology, a huge step by both companies toward a new business of automated ride sharing, ...According to three sources familiar with the plans, the partnership is set to be announced by Ford at the Consumer Electronics Show in January. By pairing with Google, Ford gets a massive boost in self-driving software development; while the automaker has been experimenting with its own systems for years, it only revealed plans this month to begin testing on public streets in California....

Google already has several links to Ford; the head of the self-driving car project, John Krafcik, worked for 14 years at Ford, including a stint as head of truck engineering, and several other ex-Ford employees work in the unit as well. Former Ford chief executive Alan Mulally joined Google's board last year.

And Ford executives have been clear for years that the company was ready to embrace a future where cars were sold as on-demand services. Ford CEO Mark Fields has repeatedly said Ford was thinking of itself "as a mobility company," and what that would mean for its business" Read more

2016-08-02

Some other thoughts that deserve your attention

Half-baked stuff that probably doesn't deserve your time:

Older stuff that I had missed:

C'mon Man! (These folks didn't get/read the memo)

Calendar of Upcoming Events:

Recent Highlights of:

May 7 Crash