2016-09-30

2016-09-30

October 1, 2016

Do Driverless Cars Favor Urban or Suburban Life?

              H. Grabar, Sept 29, "One possibility is that easy
              mobility—driverless cars, on-demand deliveries, and
              the like—will dull the pains of suburban life. The
              long commute, the wasted driving time, the difficulty
              of running out for a carton of milk—the inconvenience
              and expense of the subdivision will be melted away by
              hot new technology. Milk by drone, what a concept!

              Another is that easy mobility produces greater
              advantages in the city. Carless living is better than
              ever. NIMBY battles don't happen because parking and
              congestion aren't problems. Wasted auto
              infrastructure, like lots and curbside parking and
              garages, is converted towards better uses like housing
              and restaurants. Maybe a central highway, once
              evidence of a city's essential unpleasantness, becomes
              a park.... [Read more](http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2016/09/29/are_driverless_cars_better_for_cities_or_suburbs.html)  Hmmm...VERY interesting.  My
                      view: There is essentially zero consumer
                      demand for Driverless car ownership.  Without
                      a substantial mobility alternative,
                      suburbanites will buy and love Self-driving
                      cars. Driverless is a useless upgrade.

                                      However, fleets of Driverless
                                      vehicles can provide a
                                      compelling alternative.  They
                                      have
                      a much better opportunity to thrive (be a
                      profitable fleet business) if Driverless makes
                      sharing rides "consumer
                      acceptable/desirable".  This may be  achieved
                      through price, amenities, ease-of-use,
                      marketing, ???.  Moderate density generates
                      demand that can be readily served with
                      moderate ridesharing that is substantially
                      better than individual car ownership or
                      car-sharing.   This kind of elevator-like
                      mobility is better in terms of service, price,
                      overhead, environment, ...  and it
                      substantially enhances the fundamental
                      attractiveness of medium density urban
                      lifestyle.  Thus, ride-share Driverless favors
                      moderate urban while Self-driving favors
                      status quo. Alain

Drive Me, the world’s most ambitious and advanced public autonomous driving experiment, starts today (Sept 9)

              Press release Sept 9, "Volvo Cars, the premium car
              maker, has officially kicked off Drive Me, the world's
              most ambitious and advanced public autonomous driving
              experiment. This morning it produced the very first
              autonomous car that will be used in the Drive Me
              project in Gothenburg.

              The autonomous Volvo XC90 SUV was finalized in Volvo
              Cars' special manufacturing facility in Torslanda this
              morning and is the first in a series of autonomous
              cars that will eventually be handed to real families
              in Gothenburg to be driven on public roads.... [Read more](https://www.media.volvocars.com/global/en-gb/media/pressreleases/196240/drive-me-the-worlds-most-ambitious-and-advanced-public-autonomous-driving-experiment-starts-today) Hmmm...My
                  apologies for being late here (although, it will
                  be really interesting when the 1st public "driver"
                  rides the Gothenburg loop road.  I wonder how well
                  Tesla's "AutoPilot" handles that road in
                  Gothenburg today? ([One video, see about 15 minutes in](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPrbPlas7Ns), not the
                  best.) Alain

What Does That Mean for Policing?

R. Washington, Sept 29, ““I think you would see the end of traffic stops,” says Joseph A. Schafer, the criminal justice department head at Southern Illinois University. “It radically changes police-public encounters.”…So what’s the big deal if police can no longer make traffic stops? It’s about half of what police do, says Schafer. He estimates such stops, along with traffic accidents (, account for nearly 50 percent of all police-public encounters….

                Then there's the more controversial pretext stop,
                where officers pull a motorist over for a minor
                violation in order to investigate a potentially more
                serious crime. To many African Americans, it's
                racial profiling. For cops, it's one of the most
                valuable tools of policing, says Bernard Levin, a
                retired professor of psychology at Blue Ridge
                Community College in Weyers Cave, Va., and a
                co-author of "The Future of Policing." While many
                activists would welcome an end to the offense of
                "driving while black," Levin calls pretext stops the
                "major means of catching people when we don't know
                who we're going for." [Read more](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2016/09/29/driverless-cars-are-coming-what-does-that-mean-for-policing?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_source=opening-statement&utm_term=newsletter-20160929-596#.8yRFF5wpo) Hmmm...This is
                    very troubling. Police spend half of their time
                    dealing with improper behavior by humans that
                    have lost proper perspective while trying to
                    control a vehicle to get them someplace.  What
                    an unfortunate misuse of both police and human
                    talent. Plus, the police-driver interaction is
                    rarely pleasant and too often escalates to true
                    ugliness.  Such interactions rarely occur in
                    elevators.  More reasons that we evolve our
                    automobiles to auto(mated)mobiles. (I prefer not
                    to comment about the drone and terrorism part of
                    the article.) Alain

Telematics Industry Insights

M. Sena, Oct 4, Hmmm…Several very good segments: “What the Car Companies Are Doing” (p2), Who are your customers and what do they need? especially: “…In 1978, the number one job in the most number of the fifty states was secretary, with 21 states out of 50. It was followed by machine operator/electrical equipment assembler (10 states out of 50) and truck driver (9). In 1996, …“  and  “The Future of Automotive Navigation…What I missed in his talk and in all discussions of autonomous driving is the most important: How does the car know where to go?…“  Read more Hmmm…We put the first US-wide GPS turn-by-turn navigation system (CoPilot|Door2Door) on the market in J&R Music & Computer World in August 1997 almost 20 years ago. (Also, Michael is from Scranton, PA :-)   Alain

Can Tesla’s Autopilot Be Trusted? Not Always

“…The updated Autopilot, at freeway speed, will visually and then audibly warn you to place your hands on the wheel, if it senses they are off. If you need to be reminded with three audible warnings within an hour, the Autopilot system disengages and remains that way until the car is next restarted. Hmmm…Disengaging??? Shouldn’t it slow down (and possibly move over to the shoulder)  before disengaging???

                The visual warning has been enhanced, too. Besides
                the pop-up alert on the screen, the entire perimeter
                of the instrument panel pulses a warning in white
                light.

                When you are puttering along at a few miles per hour
                in heavy traffic, though, the warnings, by design,
                do not come on at all...." [Read more](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/automobiles/autoreviews/can-teslas-autopilot-be-trusted-not-always.html)   Hmmm...I
                    thought that it was only taxes and death that
                    were "always", asking something to always be
                    trusted is a real stretch?  Alain

Tesla Model S crashes into a gym, driver claims autonomous acceleration, Tesla says driver’s fault

              F. Lambert Sept. 25. "Back in June, we reported on a
              peculiar accident in Irvine, California, where a Tesla
              Model X suddenly accelerated in a parking and ended up
              crashing into a building. Fortunately, no one was
              injured during the event. What was particularly
              interesting about the accident is that the driver
              claimed the vehicle accelerated on its own. Tesla
              reviewed the logs and claimed that the accelerator
              pedal was pressed.

              Now we learn of another extremely similar accident
              that happened in Florida last month, but with a Tesla
              Model S instead of a Model X and it was caught on
              camera this time...According to the National Highway
              Traffic Safety Administration, there are approximately
              16,000 crashes occurring each year in the US due to
              drivers mistaking the accelerator for the brake pedal.
              It's far from being a rare event, but the drivers in
              those two accidents insist that the vehicles
              accelerated on their own...." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2016/09/25/tesla-model-s-crashes-into-gym-driver-claims-autonomous-acceleration-tesla-says-drivers-fault/)   Hmmm...I guess
                  that the courts will have to decide which to
                  believe.  Hopefully it will be easier than the [Prius experience](http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/toyota-lied-aceleration-recall/#Puw98VdNE8q0), [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8LX7oGY008).
                Alain

Uber to move freight, target trucking for the long haul

              J. Love & H. Sommerville, Sept 28, "With its
              recent acquisition of self-driving truck startup Otto,
              Uber Technologies Inc. is plotting its entry into the
              long-haul trucking business, aiming to establish
              itself as a freight hauler and a technology partner
              for the industry....

Fully autonomous trucks remain years away - some trucking industry experts estimate two decades…”

Hmmm…I disagree with the article that trucks are “two decades” away - I would think that hub-to-hub overnight moves along interstates would be the first to go; timed-out drivers drop their cross-country loads and the interstate-long haul overnight runs are autonomously completed. Destination/delivery would still be completed by manned vehicles, especially since unloading and freight identification are still frequently done manually by the driver in most LTL applications.

                    Today many dedicated logistic systems employ
                    something quite similar to this model; where
                    tandem trailers get hauled from a distant
                    distribution center, and the 'pup' trailers
                    split off and deliveries made locally by two
                    drivers, with the two empties hooked together
                    and moved back to the DC by the single driver.
                    The role of the long haul driver (from fixed
                    point A to fixed point B along the interstate),
                    could pretty easily be managed by machine/secure
                    remote operation with today's technology.Steven
                    C. Walbrun [<steven.c.walbrun@gm.com>](mailto:steven.c.walbrun@gm.com) I
                  Agree. Alain

              "...Uber aims to ultimately transform the competitive
              and fragmented $700 billion-a-year trucking industry,
              which is notorious for low margins. The company is
              challenging a host of established players, ranging
              from publicly traded companies, such as third-party
              logistics firms C.H. Robinson and XPO Logistics, to
              countless mom-and-pop trucking businesses....

              "But even absent autonomous technology, Otto says it
              could help decrease the cost of trucking goods by more
              quickly finding freight, mapping more efficient routes
              and reducing fuel consumption...." [Read more](http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL2N1C224O?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0)Hmmm...Isn't
                  that what ALK/Trimble have been doing well for
                  years???  Alain

DOT Issues Safety Checklist for Self-Driving Cars

M. Hill, Sept 13, “…“This is not a way for people who are under the influence to get home and one shouldn’t even be suggesting that it is.”…” Read more  See video. Hmmm…Don’t even think about it!   Alain

Udacity plans to build its own open-source self-driving car

D. Etherington, Sept 13, “Sebastian Thrun’s online education startup Udacity recently created a self-driving car engineering nanodegree, and on stage at Disrupt today Thrun revealed that the company intends to build its own self-driving car as part of the program, and that it also intends to open source the technology that results, so that “anyone” can try to build their own self-driving vehicle, according to Thrun….” Read more Hmmm…Sebastian, welcome back with a very interesting approach. See also Udacity announces its partners for its autonomous driving nanodegree  Alain

Comma.ai will ship a $999 autonomous driving add-on by the end of this year

              D. Etherington, Sept 13, "...The [Comma One](https://commaai.blogspot.com/https://commaai.blogspot.com/) is a $999 add-on shipping before the end of
              the year, with a $24 monthly subscription for its
              software, which Hotz says will be able to drive your
              car from Mountain View to San Francisco without
              requiring a driver to touch the wheel, the brake or
              the gas.

              This isn't a kit that makes your car into a fully
              self-driving vehicle, Hotz is quick to note, but it is
              a system that can provide powers equivalent to Tesla's
              Autopilot, without requiring that you buy a whole new
              car. "It's Mountain View to San Francisco without
              touching the wheel," Hotz said. At launch, Comma One
              will support a small group of specific vehicles, but
              over time the startup hopes to add compatibility with
              more models. [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/13/comma-ai-will-ship-a-999-autonomous-driving-add-on-by-the-end-of-this-year/?ncid=rss) Hmmm...Maybe ???
                  Certainly desirable, but is it deliverable?  Alain

Driverless cars and America’s anti-social future

K. Trinko, Sept 25, “…Because somehow, even as we hold fast to societal norms and are silent around strangers in elevators and in airplane seats and head for the quiet car on the train, ridesharing cars have become places where strangers actually talk to each other, where people who may not otherwise have met in our self-segregated society interact….

It’s easy to write off people with different ideological views as idiots, bigots, etc. — until you’re talking to them face to face.

                We need to find ways to facilitate more of those
                conversations. It's true they may continue when
                there are multiple riders who are strangers in a
                driverless car, although my own experience has been
                that the Uber pool is a much quieter experience than
                regular Uber." [Read more](http://nypost.com/2016/09/25/driverless-cars-and-americas-anti-social-future/) Hmmm...
                    Driverless cars will be, almost exclusively,
                    fleet-owned and managed and, thus, shared, just
                    like elevators. Hopefully, their design/ambiance
                    will engender conversation.  It is the
                    self-driving cars that will largely privately
                    owned and thereby rarely shared.  Alain

Self-driving cars will have to pry the steering wheel from our cold, dead hands, poll says

              A. Hawkins, Sept 28, "Americans like the idea of
              self-driving cars, but are less willing to cede
              control of the steering wheel to a computer program, [according to a new poll](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Kelley+Blue+Book+Future+Autonomous+Vehicle+Driver+Study+-+FINAL.pdf) released today. An overwhelming
              majority, 80 percent, said humans should always have
              the option to drive themselves, while 64 percent
              expressed a need to be in control of their own
              vehicle.

              Moreover, people are essentially torn between the
              promise of safety and the need for control: 49 percent
              said they prefer a safer roadway even if it means they
              would have less control over their vehicle, while 51
              percent said wanted to stay in the driver seat, safer
              streets be damned....[Read mor](http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/28/13076948/self-driving-car-poll-autonomy-kelley-blue-book)e
                  Hmmm...Interesting.  Look at the [report/slides](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/Kelley+Blue+Book+Future+Autonomous+Vehicle+Driver+Study+-+FINAL.pdf).
                Alain

Self-Driving Hype Doesn’t Reflect Reality

              C. Mims, Sept. 25, "...To many industry insiders,
              these claims are largely hype. They're not false, but
              they abuse the terms "autonomous vehicle" and
              "self-driving," which evoke images of hopping into a
              car, entering a destination and disappearing into
              sleep, food or our phones...." [Read more](http://www.wsj.com/articles/self-driving-hype-doesnt-reflect-reality-1474821801) Hmmm... So, Chris,
                  please begin by properly educating your readers:
                  A small number of cars are available today for
                  purchase that can Self-drive down a significant
                  number of lane miles under some traffic conditions
                  in good weather in many parts of the world.  The
                  number of cars having this self-drive capability
                  is expected to increase rapidly, as are the number
                  of lane miles experiencing most traffic conditions
                  and will extend to slightly inclement weather.  It
                  will be a very long time before Self-driving will
                  be accomplish on some roads in some weather
                  conditions (we shouldn't go places under those
                  conditions.)... Except for a very few well
                  prepared locations under good weather conditions
                  at very low speeds, we have yet to even go the
                  first foot driverless (no one in the car ).  It is
                  NOT  in the near-term horizon ( next 5 years)
                  that we will be in driverless where we are today
                  in self-driving.

                  The speed at which we advance Self-driving
                  is largely dependent on how our ability to
                  "perfect" Automated Collision Avoidance and
                  Automated Lane Centering systems (ADAS/ALCS).

                  Also, If and
                  when be begin to advance Driverless is
                  largely dependent on how our ability to "perfect" Self-driving.
                          Alain

Other Views

                  on NHTSA/DoT AV Guidelines

NHTSA AV Guidance as Good as it Gets from the Federal Government

              B. Feigenbaum, Sept 26,  "Last week the National
              Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) released
              its guidance document on Automated Vehicles (AVs).
              While the guidelines are far from perfect, they are
              about as good as they get from a government agency.

              One strength of the guidelines is that they allow
              manufacturers to develop and test automated vehicles
              in a multitude of ways...

              The document's second strength was ditching NHTSA's
              self-created levels of autonomy in favor of those of
              the Society of Automotive Engineers' (SAE).  Hmmm... Disagree here.  They
                  should have reduced it to just three (3): 1.
                  Automated Collision Avoidance (on all the time;
                  ready to take over and do the right thing ("beyond
                  anti-lock brakes and stability control") which
                  NHTSA& SAE completely disregard), 2.
                  Self-driving (always has a capable human driver in
                  the car) and 3, Driverless (can run around without
                  anyone inside).  These are substantially
                  different, non-overlapping and would avoid
                  confusion

              There are several other positives....On the other
              hand, there are some troubling provisions...." [Read more](http://reason.org/blog/show/nhtsa-av-guidance-as-good-as-it-get)

Some other

                  thoughts that deserve your attention

###

Arnold Palmer, the Magnetic Face of Golf in the ’60s, Dies at 87

              D. Anderson, Sept 25, "Arnold Palmer, the champion
              golfer whose full-bore style of play, thrilling
              tournament victories and magnetic personality inspired
              an American golf boom, attracted a following known as
              Arnie's Army and made him one of the most popular
              athletes in the world, died on Sunday, according to a
              spokesman for his business enterprises. Palmer was 87.
              ..."[Read more](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/26/sports/golf/arnold-palmer-dies-at-87.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=homepage&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Home%20Page&pgtype=article) Hmmm...He
                  inspired me to play the game.  :-)   Alain

Phone Makers Could Cut Off Drivers. So Why Don’t They?

              M. Richtel, Sept 24, "The court filings paint a grisly
              picture: As Ashley Kubiak sped down a Texas highway in
              her Dodge Ram truck, she checked her iPhone for
              messages. Distracted, she crashed into a sport utility
              vehicle, killing its driver and a passenger and
              leaving a child paralyzed.... [Read more](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/25/technology/phone-makers-could-cut-off-drivers-so-why-dont-they.html) Hmmm...We know
                  why they don't, too many $$$$. Alain

On the More Technical Side

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

Public priorities and consumer preferences for selected attributes of Automated Vehicles

              Paulina Lustgarten & Scott Le Vine. Under review for presentation at the 96th Annual
                Meeting of the Transportation Research Board and
                publication in Transportation Research Record (2017).
                [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/TRB17PublicsPrioritiesForAVsLaustgartenLeVine.pdf)

Jobs

https://nrel.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/NREL/job/CO—Golden/Transportation-Behavior-Analyst_R1580

https://nrel.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/NREL/job/CO—Golden/Transportation-Data-Project-Leader_R1582

https://nrel.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/NREL/job/CO—Golden/Postdoctoral-Researcher-Transportation-Data-and-Analysis_R1574

Half-baked stuff that

                      probably doesn't deserve your time:

Would Self-Driving Vehicles Increase Occupant Productivity?

M. Sivak & B. Schoettle, Sept 2016, “Currently, in the U.S., the average occupant of a light-duty vehicle spends about an hour a day traveling—time that could potentially be put to more productive use. Indeed, increased productivity is one of the expected benefits of self-driving vehicles. (Hmmm… not really.)

                       The data presented in this white paper
                    indicate that for about 62% of Americans,
                    self-driving vehicles currently are not likely
                    to result in an improvement in productivity.
                    This is the case because 23% indicated they
                    would not ride in such vehicles, and 36% would
                    be so apprehensive in such vehicles that they
                    would only watch the road. Furthermore, out of
                    the remaining 41%, around 8% would frequently
                    experience some level of motion sickness—for an
                    additional 3% of occupants.... [Read more](http://umich.edu/%7Eumtriswt/PDF/SWT-2016-11_Abstract_English.pdf) Hmmm... If
                        one is really trying understand the
                        productivity (or other behavioral)
                        implications of a good self-driving system
                        simply study the productivity  (and other
                        behaviors) of people who "ride shotgun".
                        Those are actual behaviors by real people
                        simply riding in a car for which they have
                        whatever confidence in the abilities of the
                        human driver; not some gobbledygook
                        hypothetical.  No???  Alain.

Older stuff that I had

                      missed:

VERIZON TO ACQUIRE FLEETMATICS

Press release, Aug 1, 2016, “Verizon Communications Inc. today announced they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Verizon will acquire Fleetmatics, a leading global provider of fleet and mobile workforce management solutions, for $60.00 per share in cash – representing a value of approximately $2.4 billion.

                    "Fleetmatics is a market leader in North America
                    -- and increasingly internationally -- and
                    they've developed a wide-range of compelling
                    SaaS-based products and solutions for small- and
                    medium-sized businesses," said Andrés Irlando,
                    CEO of Verizon Telematics.

                    "The powerful combination of products and
                    services, software platforms, robust customer
                    bases, domain expertise and experience, and
                    talented and passionate teams among Fleetmatics,
                    the recently-acquired Telogis, and Verizon
                    Telematics will position the combined companies
                    to become a leading provider of fleet and mobile
                    workforce management solutions globally,"
                    Irlando added..." [Read more](https://www.fleetmatics.com/news/verizon-to-acquire-fleetmatics) Hmmm...Wow!
                      Alain

C’mon Man!(These

                      folks didn't get/read the memo)

Never stand in line again: Nissan releases ProPILOT self-queuing, self-moving chairs

S. Wilson, Sept 30, “Waiting to get into a restaurant has to be one of the worst feelings in the world….But no more. Nissan has managed to do the impossible and achieve something we never thought we’d live to see: ….How do they do it? With self-queuing, self-moving chairs…“  Read more Hmmm…Nissan, you’ve got nothing better to do??? C’mon Man!!  Alain

Calendar

                        of Upcoming Events:

F1/10 Autonomous Racing Competition

Oct 1-2

Wean Hall, Carnegie Mellon U.

Recent Highlights of:

#

###

                        September 23, 2016

Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety

September 2016, “Executive Summary…For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. (p5)

…The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)

…The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)

…The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6)  Hmmm…Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY. We all have recognized safety as a necessary   condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful.  (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition.  Alain

“…we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (…defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm…Perfect! Alain

“…1. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p6)…“  Hmmm… 15 Points, more later. Alain

“…2. Model State Policy (p7) The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities…but… The shared objective is to ensure the establishment of a consistent national framework rather than a patchwork of incompatible laws…” Hmmm… Well done.  Alain

“…3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) … This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to…”   Hmmm… Excellent. Alain

“…4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)…The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)…” Hmmm… Yes. Alain

“…Note on “Levels of Automation”  There are multiple definitions for various levels of automation and for some time there has been need for standardization to aid clarity and consistency. Therefore, this Policy adopts the SAE International (SAE) definitions for levels of automation. )  Hmmm… I’m not sure this adds clarity because it does not deal directly with the difference between self-driving and driverless. While it might be implied in level 4 and level 5 that these vehicles can proceed with no one in the vehicle, it is not stated explicitly.  That is unfortunate, because driverless freight delivery can’t be done without “driverless”; neither can mobility-on-demand be offered to the young, old, blind, inebriated, …without “driverless”.  Vehicles can’t be “repositioned-empty” (which (I don’t mean to offend anyone) is the real value of a taxi driver today).  So autonomousTaxis are impossible.

Also, these levels do not address Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) Systems and Automated Lane Keeping Systems which are the very first systems whose on-all-the-time performance must be perfected.   These are the Safety Foundation of HAV (Highly Automated vehicles).  I understand that the guidelines may assume that these systems are already perfect and that “20 manufacturer have committed” to have AEB on all new cars, but to date these systems really don’t work.  In 12 mph IIHS test, few stop before hitting the target, and, as we may have seen with the Florida Tesla crash, the Level 2/3 AutoPilot may not have failed, but, instead, it was the “Phantom Level 1” AEB that is supposed to be on all the time.  This is not acceptable.  These AEB systems MUST get infinitely better now.  It is a shame that AEBs were were not explicitly addressed in this document.

“…I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7)  However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems

                    are subject to NHTSA's defects, recall and
                    enforcement authority. (footnote 8)   . and the "[15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/technology/the-15-point-federal-checklist-for-self-driving-cars.html?_r=0)" p17)

In sum this is a very good document and displays just how far DoT policy has come from promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized control, “connected”,  focus to creating an environment focused on individual vehicles that responsibly take care of themselves. Kudos to Secretary Foxx for this 180 degree policy turn focused on safety.   Once done correctly, the HAV will yield the early safety benefits that will stimulate continued improvements that, in turn, will yield the great mobility, environmental and quality-of-life benefits afforded by driverless mobility.

What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit.  NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines.  FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight.  Alain

                        September 4, 2016

How Do You Buy a Million Cars When You Can’t Make a Dime?

B. Simpson, Aug 25, “Isn’t this supposed to be a quiet time for business? …Not in transportation technology.

For instance, Ford announced it was working to launch fully autonomous automobiles by 2021. BMW, Intel and Mobileye joined to say they will have vehicles in production for the same target date. Ridesharing titan Uber says it will launch this month driverless vehicles in Pittsburgh, though some employees will be in the car to ensure safety.

Forget the 10 years down the road baloney. We’ll be Level 4 Autonomous in three to five years.

Yet for all the excitement there’s been some downer news…. Lyft was seeking a buyer, despite the $500 million that GM pumped into it …Earlier this year Lyft pledged… to keep its U.S. losses under $50 million a month….Uber told its investors it lost $520 million in the first quarter, and more than $750 million in the second. This after losing about $2 billion in 2015….It’s valuable to keep in mind the shaky foundations of Uber and Lyft because the two have been touted as an important foundation for the growth of autonomous vehicles. Read moreHmmm…Do read more!  It may well be that those that can’t make a dime wont even have the opportunity to buy the driverless vehicles that would allow them to “make a dime”.  The real value of the driverless vehicles may well be in their ability to generate operating cash without needing any of the $10B+ expertise/intellectual property amassed by Uber/Lyft in managing self-employed part-timers that aren’t needed.  If that is the case, then the makers of those vehicles will manage them for their own account rather than selling them at cost-plus (or the price of those vehicles will be such that only their maker is making any money). Alain August 28, 2016

Prepare to be Underwhelmed by 2021’s Autonomous Cars

                        August 19, 2016

Ford Promises Fleets of Driverless Cars Within Five Years

N. Boudette, Aug 16, “In the race to develop driverless cars, several automakers and technology companies are already testing vehicles that pilot themselves on public roads. And others have outlined plans to expand their development fleets over the next few years.    At a news conference on Tuesday at the company’s research center in Palo Alto, Calif., Mark Fields, Ford’s chief executive, said the company planned to mass produce driverless cars and have them in commercial operation in a ride-hailing service by 2021….

                    "That means there's going to be no steering
                    wheel. There's going to be no gas pedal. There's
                    going to be no brake pedal,'' he said. ...." [Read mor](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/ford-promises-fleets-of-driverless-cars-within-five-years.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/ford-promises-fleets-of-driverless-cars-within-five-years.html?_r=0)e  Hmmm...This
                        is significant because it implies that Ford,
                        (or an entity under its control) will
                        operate and deliver on a day-to-day basis
                        MaaS (Mobility as a Service).  In other
                        words it will both build/assemble and
                        operate mobility's "Cloud".  The scale
                        economies of such a mobility "cloud" are
                        arguably much more substantial than that of
                        the data storage & computing "cloud".
                        Think about it!  Alain
                        August 8, 2016

Latest to Quit Google’s Self-Driving Car Unit: Top Roboticist

J. Markoff, Aug 5, “ A roboticist and crucial member of the team that created Google’s self-driving car is leaving the company, the latest in a string of departures by important technologists working on the autonomous car project.  Chris Urmson, a Carnegie Mellon University research scientist, joined Google in 2009 to help create the then-secret effort. … Read moreHmmm…Very unfortunate.  What a great job he has done. All the best. Alain August 1, 2016

Mobileye Ends Partnership With Tesla

M. Ramsey, July 26, “ A key supplier of semiautonomous car technology ended a supply agreement with Tesla Motors Inc. following a high-profile traffic fatality in May involving one of the Silicon Valley company’s electric vehicles.  Read moreHmmm….And why in all of this isn’t there a discussion of Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) technology/suppliers??  There must be no consumer/regulatory appeal to AEB?  Alain July 21, 2016

Master Plan, Part Deux

Lessons From the Tesla Crash

                      7 Crash

Hmmm…What we know now (and don’t know):

Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

Chenyi Chen PhD Dissertation , “…the key part of the thesis, a direct perception approach is proposed to drive a car in a highway environment. In this approach, an input image is mapped to a small number of key perception indicators that directly relate to the affordance of a road/traffic state for driving…..” Read more  Hmmm..FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall, Establishing a foundation for image-based autonomous driving using DeepLearning Neural Networks trained in virtual environments. Very promising. Alain

Hearing focus of SF 2569 Autonomous vehicles task force establishment and demonstration project for people with disabilities

March 23 Hmmm… Watch the video of the Committee Meeting.  The testimony is Excellent and very compelling! Also see Self-Driving Minnesota Alain

U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

                            2016

Motor Vehicle Deaths Increase by Largest Percent in 50 Years

                            2015

Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars

                  Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @
                  2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec
                  1.  [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4)  especially
                      at the 13:12 mark.  Compelling; especially
                      after the 60 Minutes segment above!  Also see
                      his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
                      Alain

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