2017-01-13

2017-01-13

January 13, 2017

Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx Announces New Federal Committee on Automation

News, Jan 10, “…U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “I’m proud to announce this new automation committee, and look forward to seeing its members advance life-saving innovations while boosting our economy and making our transportation network more fair, reliable, and efficient.”… Read more Hmmm… Excellent!!! Congratulations Chris, Bryant, Missy and everyone else.  Alain

A National Hybrid Activity/Agent-Based Demand Model to Characterize the Mobility of the United States

          K. Marocchini'18, Jan. 11, "...The goal of the model
          presented is to generate the precise origin, destination,
          and arrival/departure time for every trip made by every
          individual on a typical workday when school is in session.
          More generally, the model provides the spatial and
          temporal distribution for every citizen in the United
          States. Every individual simulation produces a unique trip
          file that contains an individualized, probabilistic record
          of every person-trip on an average weekday, which is
          expected to total to just over 1 billion trips. Each
          record includes every trip the person makes including
          spatial coordinates of the origins and destinations as
          well as the exact departure and arrival times in seconds
          after midnight. Files also contain pointers that indicate
          individual characteristics about a given person, including
          income, household location, familial status, etc...." [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/Theses/SeniorTheses_IndWork%2717/final_independent_work_marocchini.pdf) Hmmm...
              Excellent!! The ~1B trips are at [NationWideTrips'16](http://orf467.princeton.edu/NationWideTrips%2716/)
              .  Those [200 miles & under](http://orf467.princeton.edu/NationWideTrips%2716/NationWidePersonTrips_oPixel_oTime_SubCounty/)and [over 200 miles](http://orf467.princeton.edu/NationWideTrips%2716/LongTripPixelData/) are sorted by {oPixel, oTime} such
              that all personTrips originating from a pixel in a
              county are together in a single file. (Of course, not
              so for trip destinations. No file has greater than ~1M
              trips/rows so each is openable in excel they are easy
              to look at.)  Characteristics of the [308M travelers are available in homeCounty files](http://orf467.princeton.edu/NationWideTrips%2716/PersonDataModule1/).  [See below, Upcoming Events](http://www.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/Orf467F16/FinalProject/Orf467F16FinalProjectAnnouncement.pdf), for analyses made
              possible by Kyle's model. Florida DoT should give
                Kyle an internship this summer  :-)  Alain

Training self-driving cars on the streets of Los Santos with GTA V just got easier

          J. Mannes, Jan 11, "...One of the biggest advantages of
          training off of a virtual environment is that its primed
          for harvesting labeled data. Objects in GTA V, whether
          traffic signs or cyclists, can easily be bounded and
          analyzed... One Princeton student, [Artur Filipowicz](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/TRB%2717/Using_GTAV_to_Learn_Distances_TRB_Final.pdf)'17,
          specifically made use of this to collect 1.4 million
          images of stop signs in a variety of conditions to predict
          the chance a given intersection will have a sign present
          and to estimate the distance to the given sign.... [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/11/training-self-driving-cars-on-the-streets-of-los-santos-with-gta-v-just-got-easier/) Hmmm... The real
              value of using a virtual environment to attach
              affordances (labels) to image data (pixel arrays) is
              that you know with certainty and accuracy what and
              where everything is relative to the image plane in the
              virtual environment.  It is all your creation.  Plus,
              it is substantially/infinitely easier to create
              'corner cases' in a virtual environment and perform
              any number of variational/sensitivity  analyses than
              to try to recreate them in reality.  Chenyi Chen*16
              deserves the credit for pioneering this approach in
              his [PhD dissertation](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/Theses/chenyiPhDfinal_ExtractingCognitionOutOfImagesForThePurposeOfAutonomousDriving.pdf) and [seminal paper](http://deepdriving.cs.princeton.edu/paper.pdf).  Artur Filipowicz'17 began his wok with
              GTA5 last year as his Junior Independent Work.  Alain

Robot Cars Can Learn to Drive without Leaving the Garage

          W. Knight, Jan 12, "The computers that control
          self-driving cars are gaining valuable knowledge about the
          real world in some surprising ways—including browsing
          online maps and playing video games.

          Researchers at Princeton University recently developed a
          computer vision and mapping system that gathered useful
          information about the physical properties of roads by
          studying Google Street View and comparing the scenes to
          the information provided in open-source mapping data. This
          allowed it to, for example, learn where the edges of an
          intersection should be based on images captured by
          Google's mapping cars.

          In separate work revealed Wednesday, researchers at
          Open-air, a nonprofit focused on fundamental AI research,
          created a way to have software agents learn driving
          strategy by experimenting in the video game Grand Theft
          Auto V, through a platform known as Universe. ..." [Read more](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/603007/robot-cars-can-learn-to-drive-without-leaving-the-garage/) Hmmm... [Ari Seff](http://www.cs.princeton.edu/%7Easeff/) is doing some really nice work here.

              Alain

Self-Driving Leadership Summit

           Mary E. Peters, former USDoT Secretary, Jan 7. "...But
          holding back technology until we are absolutely sure
          everything is 110 percent safe isn't going to reduce
          traffic fatalities. It is going to encourage them. That's
          because while we wait years for regulators to catch up to
          innovators, tens of thousands of Americans will continue
          to die in their cars, the victims of human-caused traffic
          crashes... "  [Read more](imap://alaink@exchangeimap.princeton.edu:993/fetch%3EUID%3E/INBOX%3E2255726?part=1.2.8&filename=MaryPeters_ATI21_AV_SummitLunchRemarks.pdf) Hmmm... Excellent
              remarks.  Alain

Mike Jellen, President, Velodyne, Jan 7. “Velodyne LiDAR” Read more Hmmm… A really nice slide presentation presenting background information on Velodyne’s LiDAR. Alain

How Amazon and Nvidia won CES this year

D. Etherington, Jan 8, “…How Nvidia won:   Of the two, Nvidia had a much more direct presence; the GPU-maker’s CEO Jen-Hsun Huang had the opening keynote, and packed a lot of news into the three-part presentation. Nvidia also had its own showfloor presences, including a self-driving car demonstration featuring BB8, its own test car, and an Audi Q7 equipped with the same software and hardware that could also drive itself, with no human behind the wheel….” Read more Hmmm… The live demo on a closed course in the parking lot was impressive. Alain

E.P.A. Accuses Fiat Chrysler of Secretly Violating Emissions Standards

          H. Tabuchim Jan 12, "The Environmental Protection Agency
          on Thursday accused Fiat Chrysler of installing secret
          software that allowed more than 100,000 of its diesel
          vehicles to emit pollutants above legal levels.

          The case has echoes of [one against Volkswagen](https://www.nytimes.com/video/business/100000004867391/volkswagen-to-pay-4-3-billion-fine.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FEnvironmental%20Protection%20Agency&action=click&contentCollection=timestopics&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=collection), which on Wednesday pleaded
          guilty to criminal conspiracy as part of a widespread
          emissions-cheating scheme. In both cases, the government
          focused on software in vehicles that can adjust emissions
          levels....
          Ms. Giles stopped short of describing the software as a
            so-called defeat device of the sort used by Volkswagen
            to cheat on diesel emissions tests. But she said there
            was no doubt that Fiat Chrysler's software "is
            contributing to illegal pollution.".....

Sergio Marchionne, chief executive of Fiat Chrysler, mounted an impassioned defense, denying that the company had intentionally broken the law.  “There’s not a guy” at the automaker “who would try something as stupid” as cheating on emissions tests, he said on a call with reporters.  “We don’t belong to a class of criminals,” Mr. Marchionne said. “We have done, in our view, nothing that is illegal.”  Read more Hmmm… No comment.  :-(  Alain

Jan 13, Navya and Keolis join forces to create NAVLY, the very first public transport service operated by an autonomous electric vehicle. See Video Hmmm… Not really the 1st (Park Shuttle in Rotterdam has been operating initially with pilot test in 2009, but that doesn’t matter.  What is important is that these systems are beginning to be implemented in more than a handful of places.  They are very appropriate mobility systems for hundreds of retirement/gated communities, private campuses and deserve to be viewed as serious, enormously less expensive, alternatives to light rail systems such as the Purple Line, The Brooklyn LRT and even the 42nd Street LRT (but in those systems, price seems not to be relevant since they each use OPM)    Alain

Gone in 2.39 Seconds: Faraday Claims Tesla-Beating Supercar

          A. Webb, Jan 3, "Faraday Future staked its claim to the
          world's fastest electric car with its FF91 production
          model, showing footage of it outracing Tesla Motors Inc.'s
          Model S in a glitzy event in Las Vegas.

          The startup electric-car maker backed by Chinese
          billionaire Jia Yueting is counting on its debut offering
          to drum up support from investors, many of whom had been
          invited to the Las Vegas presentation. The FF91 can go
          from zero to 60 miles per hour in 2.39 seconds, according
          to the company. That compares with 2.5 seconds for Tesla's
          Model S P100D in its fastest 'Ludicrous' mode..."  [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-04/gone-in-2-39-seconds-faraday-claims-tesla-beating-electric-car) Hmmm... Just what we
              need, more cars operating in 'Ludicrous' mode while
              the driver is texting. Driverless can't come too
              soon.  :-) Alain

nVIDIA Will Help Mercedes Bring an AI-Powered Car to Market

          K. Korosec, Jan 7, "Mercedes-Benz says it will roll out a
          production vehicle in the next 12 months powered by
          Nvidia's artificial intelligence computer, just days after
          the U.S. chipmaker announced a partnership German Audi to
          use the same platform.

          Both announcements were made during CES, the annual
          consumer electronics show in Las Vegas. However, the end
          products will likely be very different. Audi says it will
          use the Nvidia AI computer to bring autonomous vehicles to
          the road by 2020...." [Read more](http://fortune.com/2017/01/07/nvidia-mercedes-ces/) Hmmm... Very
              interesting.  Alain

Self-Driving Vehicles Update

          T. Guarriello, Jan 5 Episode 26  [Podcast](https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/ep.-26-alain-kornhauser-ph.d./id959304430?i=1000379652686&mt=2)  Hmmm... Fun PodCast. :-) Alain

Some other

                  thoughts that deserve your attention

Cooling Drone Market Suffers More Layoffs

               P. McCarthy, Jan 10, "More bad news for the drone
              industry as French-based manufacturer Parrot is laying
              off a third of their drone division. Following a
              massive drop in fourth-quarter earnings, Parrot said
              they missed their target by about 100 million euros
              (~105,000 USD) with their drone revenue generating
              about 60 million euros between commercial and
              consumer.

              These distressed sales come as a surprise after the
              healthy reports that drone sales more than doubled
              since the beginning of 2015. However, even holiday
              sales couldn't help the Parrot overcome the 50% market
              stranglehold DJI holds on U.S. sales...."  [Read more](http://www.dealerscope.com/post/cooling-drone-market-suffers-layoffs/) Hmmm... Very much
                  of a niche market; whereas, Self-driving is the
                  new 'Fins and Chrome' that will help the auto
                  industry sell millions of cars for many years to
                  come.   Alain

###

On the More Technical Side

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/

Half-baked stuff that

                      probably doesn't deserve your time

Lawsuits Could Run Wild When an Autonomous Car Crashes

S. Lehto, Jan 11, “… I’m skeptical. Not just because I remember all those promises of jet packs and flying cars, but because I’m a lawyer. And I can sense impending litigation the way a retired NFL lineman can sense a coming thunderstorm from the pain in his knees…“  Read more   Hmmm… Yup!! Lawyer alright, nor a writer.  We guessed it. Get all you can out of the few crashes that will undoubtedly occur because the ambulances to chase will be few and far between.  You really deserve a C’mon Man simply for abusing the NFL analogy. Alain

###

C’mon Man!(These

                      folks didn't get/read the memo)

Calendar

                        of Upcoming Events:

Orf467F16 Final Project Symposium

Nation-Wide aTaxi Mobility Analysis

10:00am -> 2:00pm

                      Saturday, January 14, 2017

                      101 Sherrerd Hall

                      Princeton University

Recent Highlights of:

#

###

                        January 8, 2017

Coming Highlights of Annual TRB Conference

Data Encryption:

                    1. Tuesday, Jan 10, 2:15 - 3:15 Marriott
                    Marquis, Marquis Ballroom Salon 15 (M2) (Panel
                    Discussion)

                        What Apple's Attempt to Keep the "Back
                      Door" Locked Means for Transportation

                        January 4, 2017

Volume 4, Issue 3

M. Sena, Jan. 5, “In This Issue:

Report from Dispatch Central 1 “…While the 12 million people in the EU who earn their livings directly from the automotive industry are delighted by the news that car sales figures for Novem-ber were up significantly, and it looks like 2016 will be another banner year, there are people in governments doing everything in their power to make both building and owning motorized vehicles economically unviable…” Read more  Hmmm…Very interesting!

Autonomous Driving News Apple’s Letter to NHTSA 1 “…The Vehicle Safety Act requires companies to certify vehicles to the FMVSS (Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards) before first sale. But this law applies to new motor vehicles intended for sale to the public, and by implication, by companies that make and sell cars, not companies like Apple that may or may not intend to sell cars. Further, FAST Act2 specifically allows car makers, but not non-car makers, to test on public roads without requiring ex-emptions from FMVSS…Read more “ Hmmm… Very interesting!

What Car Companies Are Doing 2 “…So Uber must have made Volvo a pretty sweet offer when it gets rid of all the drivers with their own cars and has its own fleet of driverless cars…Read more” Hmmm…Very interesting!

Reurbanization or Spreading the Sprawl 3 “…Where do you want to go? My chart below has two opposing scenarios. In the top scenario, we keep doing what we have been doing. In the bottom sce-nario, we try to match policies with desired results. You choose…Read more” Hmmm…Very interesting!

Automotive Navigation-The Future of Traffic Info 4  “…ROUTE GUIDANCE WITHOUT

                    traffic information is useless..[Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/The%20Dispatcher_5_January%202017.pdf)" Hmmm...Stop
                        right there.  We've known that!  The
                        connected world will not get here until most
                        of road vehicles are part of what will be
                        but a few competing fleets.  It is those
                        fleet owners/managers that will find it
                        compelling to deploy connectedness
                        throughout their own fleets. Any meaningful
                        sharing of data between competing fleets is
                        not in any future that I foresee. It may
                        even violate anti-trust laws (Unless Putin
                        takes over the world).   Alain

Musings of a Dispatcher – Civilis cogitationes 6 “…I did not see a lot of people cycling to their jobs when I was in Västerås in the early autumn of this year.  Like most places in Europe

                    and the U.S., when cars became affordable for
                    people with even modest incomes—starting in the
                    50s in the U.S. and in the 60s in Europe—it was
                    a delight for workers to get out of the rain and
                    snow and into their own car. It's the same today
                    in emerging markets, especially China,.." [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/The%20Dispatcher_5_January%202017.pdf)  Hmmm...Our
                        only hope is "Driverless"!  Alain

                        December 24, 2016

Waymo’s 100 autonomous Chrysler minivans are here

J. Golson, Dec 19, “Chrysler has completed the 100 autonomous Pacifica minivans that will join the Waymo (née Google) fleet in early 2017. The vans, which are plug-in hybrid variants with Waymo’s self-driving hardware and software built in, are part of a partnership between Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and Waymo that was announced earlier this year.

Waymo CEO John Krafcik said last week that his company is not interested in “making better cars.” Instead, it wants to make “better drivers.”…”

Read more Hmmm…Nice that these vehicles are targeted to a ride-sharing market (more seating capacity and easier in&out than the Prius/Lexus/Bug.)

However, the quote by John Krafcik is VERY troubling.  To make “better drivers” all one needs is Automated Collision Avoidance systems (or what I’ve termed ‘Safe-driving cars’).  That is indeed a laudable goal; however, that goal can be reached with a lot less hardware and software than what is in these modified Pacificas (which have a conventional steering wheel, brake & throttle pedals and driver’s seat). But Safe-driving cars aren’t helpful to the Steve Mahan’s of this world (or to the young, or the Ubers or enable the Modified Pacifica’s to offer inexpensive high-quality shared-ride on-demand mobility to all.   Most unfortunately, what all of the extra gizmos on the modified Pacificas enable is for the driver to be better able to consume Google Ads for part of his/her time trapped in this vehicle.  So a more honest quote might have been: it wants to make “better drivers who can better consume Google Ads.”  No wonder Chris bailed!  :-(  Alain

                        December 18, 2016

The California DMV says Uber has to stop operating its self-driving cars in SF

J. Bhuiyah, Dec 14, “…In a letter addressed to Anthony Levandowski, the co-founder of Otto and now head of Uber’s self-driving unit, the California DMV demanded that the ride-hail company stop operating its fleet of self-driving cars…“  Read moreHmmm… This is all so confusing. The letter from DMV describes the ‘testing’ of ‘autonomous technology’, but Uber isn’t ‘testing’, it is operating and it doesn’t describe its cars as ‘autonomous’ anything, but, ‘self-driving’ (which is the correct designation).  To me, what Uber is operating is basically the same thing as what Tesla is selling in California.  Moreover, Uber’s Self-driving is less ‘autonomous’ in its operation than the operation of ‘electronic stability control (ESC)’ that has been mandated in every car built since 2012 that operate on California roads. (ESC has sensors and control logic that coordinate the operation of the brakes and throttle at the discretion of the sensors and over-ride the intended control actions of the driver.  Now that’s real ‘autonomy’ …taking the driver out of the loop at the discretion of some control logic. Anti -lock brakes are similarly ‘autonomous’)  Should everyone in California get a letter from DMV?   Just think, New Jersey is trying to enact CA-like legislation. :-(  Alain

                        December 14, 2016

Google is spinning off its self-driving car program into a new company called Waymo

A. Hawkins, Dec 13, “Today, Google announced that it would be spinning off its six-year-old self-driving project into a standalone business called Waymo, which stands for “a new way forward in mobility,” according to John Krafcik, the CEO of the new company.

                    It was previously reported that Google would be
                    dropping its plan to build its own vehicle
                    without steering wheels and pedals, instead
                    focusing on creating the self-driving technology
                    that can be installed in third-party vehicles.
                    Krafcik didn't provide much clarity there, but
                    did state definitively that the new company was
                    still fully committed to fully autonomous
                    vehicle technology.

                    "We are all in, 100 percent, on Level Four and
                    Level Five fully driverless solutions," he said.

                    Krafcik didn't comment on a report in Bloomberg
                    that Google would be starting its own
                    ride-sharing service in partnership with Fiat
                    Chrysler using the Italian car maker's Pacifica
                    minivans as its fleet of self-driving taxis.
                    Google and FCA announced their collaboration
                    earlier this year. Krafcik did confirm that the
                    self-driving Pacificas were still in the build
                    phase, but would hopefully be on the road for
                    testing very soon.

                    It may be too soon to say that Google is
                    abandoning its plans to build it's own fleet of
                    driverless cars, without steering wheels and
                    pedals. That said, Krafcik made it clear that
                    Waymo "is not a car company, there's been some
                    confusion on that point. We're not in business
                    of making better cars, we're in the business of
                    making better drivers."...[Read more](http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/13/13936782/google-self-driving-car-waymo-spin-off-company)  Hmmm... Boy that is a lot of
                        hedging.  If they are in the business of
                        making better drivers, then all they need to
                        do is to make Automated Collision Avoidance
                        systems that actually work... avoid
                        collisions (aka Safe-driving Cars).  That
                        would make all drivers better drivers, but
                        it wouldn't do anything for non-drivers...
                        the young, old, poor, blind, those under the
                        influence, ...  Has Google abandoned all of
                        those folks and reverted to the
                        'dark-side'?  Alain
                        December 7, 2016

Why the driverless car industry is happy (so far) with Trump’s pick for Transportation secretary

R. Mitchell, Dec 6, “Silicon Valley voted heavily for Hillary Clinton, but companies working on driverless cars seem overjoyed with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Transportation secretary, Elaine Chao.   Chao will wield great power over how driverless cars and other automated vehicles will be regulated — or not….Industry insiders say they don’t want Chao to ignore driverless car policy….

                    Instead, they hope to avoid a patchwork of
                    differing and conflicting rules across the 50
                    states.   "This should be centralized," said
                    Alain L. Kornhauser, director of the
                    transportation program at Princeton University
                    and an autonomous vehicle expert, "but that
                    doesn't mean the states don't play a part. It
                    would be better if we had a common
                    understanding...." [Read more](http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-chao-trump-driverless-20161205-story.html)Hmmm... Yup! Alain

                        November 20, 2016

DSRC’s ‘Dead End,’ Says Qualcomm Exec

J, Yoshida, Nov 15, “…Qualcomm’s pending takeover of NXP Semiconductors isn’t making the path to V2X any clearer.

                    NXP remains a staunch advocate for DSRC-based
                    V2X (as demonstrated via truck platooning on
                    Munich roads last week during Electronica).
                    Qualcomm, a leading voice and force behind the
                    progress of the cellular standards, is sticking
                    to its cellular radio technology-based V2X
                    evolution...We see this as a continued cellular
                    revolution with new elements coming in... " [Read more](http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1330834) Hmmm...V2X is
                        important, but primarily as a complement to
                        vehicle-centered automated collision
                        avoidance and not as a centralized
                        orchestration of individual vehicles.
                        Finally seeing this as: "We
                        see this as a continued cellular revolution
                        with new elements coming in..."
                        may bring some reality to V2X.  Alain

                        October 27, 2016

Ontario Must Prepare for Vehicle Automation

B. Grush, Oct. 2016, “Two contradictory stories about our transportation infrastructure are currently in circulation. One is that Ontario’s aging, inadequate and congested infrastructure is perennially unable to catch up with a growing and sprawling GTHA. The other is that vehicle automation will soon dramatically multiply current road capacity by enabling narrower lanes, shorter headways and coordinated streams of connected vehicles to pass through intersections without traffic signals to impede flow.

                    Since the premature forecast of peak car in 2008
                    and now the hype surrounding the automated
                    vehicle, we are often told that we have enough
                    road capacity; that shared robotic taxis will
                    optimize our trips, reduce congestion, and
                    largely eliminate the need for parking. This
                    advice implies we need wait only a few short
                    years to experience relief from our current
                    infrastructure problems given by decades of
                    under-investment in transportation
                    infrastructure.

This is wishful thinking. Vehicle automation will give rise to two different emerging markets: semi-automated vehicles for household consumption and fully automated vehicles for public service such as robo-taxi and robo-transit. These two vehicle types will develop in parallel to serve different social markets. They will compete for both riders and infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to look at why and how government agencies and public interest groups can and should influence the preferred types and deployment of automated vehicles and the implication of related factors for planning…” Read moreHmmm…Bravo! The Key Findings & Recommendations are excellent.  This is an excellent report (but it largely misses goods movement.)  Especially 5.1 (read ‘semi-autonomous’ as ‘Self-driving’ and ‘full-automation’ as ‘Driverless’.  My view:  Driverless may well be at the heals of Self-driving because it is a business play rather than a consumer play. Driverless will be ordered by the hundreds or thousands rather than individually.) and, of course Ch 10: Ownership (the business model) is more important than technology. Alain

                        October 7, 2016

An Alarming 10% Rise in Traffic Deaths in the First Half of 2016

D. Victor, Oct. 5,  “Traffic deaths in the United States rose 10.4 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2015, maintaining a steady climb….

                    The [numbers were released on Wednesday](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812332) by the National
                    Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which
                    noted that Americans drove about 50.5 billion
                    more miles in the first six months of 2016 than
                    in the first half of 2015, an increase of 3.3
                    percent....Officials have not identified a
                    specific cause for the most recent increase... "
                    [Read more](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/traffic-deaths-up-more-than-10-percent-in-first-half-of-2016.html?_r=0)Hmmm...worst
                        kept secret...Texting!!!  It is an epidemic
                        and the way to address it begins with Automated
                        Collision Avoidance Systems (ACAS)...what is
                        on the shelf today (if it only really
                        worked), and a necessary foundation for
                        Self-driving (which improves Quality-of-Life
                        for some but increases VMT) and Driverless
                        (which improves Quality-of-Life for all and
                        decreases VMT).   Alain
                        September 23, 2016

Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety

September 2016, “Executive Summary…For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. (p5)

…The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)

…The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)

…The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6)  Hmmm…Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY. We all have recognized safety as a necessary   condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful.  (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition.  Alain

“…we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (…defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm…Perfect! Alain

“…1. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p6)…“  Hmmm… 15 Points, more later. Alain

“…2. Model State Policy (p7) The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities…but… The shared objective is to ensure the establishment of a consistent national framework rather than a patchwork of incompatible laws…” Hmmm… Well done.  Alain

“…3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) … This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to…”   Hmmm… Excellent. Alain

“…4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)…The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)…” Hmmm… Yes. Alain

“…Note on “Levels of Automation”  There are multiple definitions for various levels of automation and for some time there has been need for standardization to aid clarity and consistency. Therefore, this Policy adopts the SAE International (SAE) definitions for levels of automation. )  Hmmm… I’m not sure this adds clarity because it does not deal directly with the difference between self-driving and driverless. While it might be implied in level 4 and level 5 that these vehicles can proceed with no one in the vehicle, it is not stated explicitly.  That is unfortunate, because driverless freight delivery can’t be done without “driverless”; neither can mobility-on-demand be offered to the young, old, blind, inebriated, …without “driverless”.  Vehicles can’t be “repositioned-empty” (which (I don’t mean to offend anyone) is the real value of a taxi driver today).  So autonomousTaxis are impossible.

Also, these levels do not address Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) Systems and Automated Lane Keeping Systems which are the very first systems whose on-all-the-time performance must be perfected.   These are the Safety Foundation of HAV (Highly Automated vehicles).  I understand that the guidelines may assume that these systems are already perfect and that “20 manufacturer have committed” to have AEB on all new cars, but to date these systems really don’t work.  In 12 mph IIHS test, few stop before hitting the target, and, as we may have seen with the Florida Tesla crash, the Level 2/3 AutoPilot may not have failed, but, instead, it was the “Phantom Level 1” AEB that is supposed to be on all the time.  This is not acceptable.  These AEB systems MUST get infinitely better now.  It is a shame that AEBs were were not explicitly addressed in this document.

“…I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7)  However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems

                    are subject to NHTSA's defects, recall and
                    enforcement authority. (footnote 8)   . and the "[15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/technology/the-15-point-federal-checklist-for-self-driving-cars.html?_r=0)" p17)

In sum this is a very good document and displays just how far DoT policy has come from promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized control, “connected”,  focus to creating an environment focused on individual vehicles that responsibly take care of themselves. Kudos to Secretary Foxx for this 180 degree policy turn focused on safety.   Once done correctly, the HAV will yield the early safety benefits that will stimulate continued improvements that, in turn, will yield the great mobility, environmental and quality-of-life benefits afforded by driverless mobility.

What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit.  NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines.  FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight.  Alain

                        August 19, 2016

Ford Promises Fleets of Driverless Cars Within Five Years

N. Boudette, Aug 16, “In the race to develop driverless cars, several automakers and technology companies are already testing vehicles that pilot themselves on public roads. And others have outlined plans to expand their development fleets over the next few years.    At a news conference on Tuesday at the company’s research center in Palo Alto, Calif., Mark Fields, Ford’s chief executive, said the company planned to mass produce driverless cars and have them in commercial operation in a ride-hailing service by 2021….

                    "That means there's going to be no steering
                    wheel. There's going to be no gas pedal. There's
                    going to be no brake pedal,'' he said. ...." [Read mor](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/ford-promises-fleets-of-driverless-cars-within-five-years.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/ford-promises-fleets-of-driverless-cars-within-five-years.html?_r=0)e  Hmmm...This
                        is significant because it implies that Ford,
                        (or an entity under its control) will
                        operate and deliver on a day-to-day basis
                        MaaS (Mobility as a Service).  In other
                        words it will both build/assemble and
                        operate mobility's "Cloud".  The scale
                        economies of such a mobility "cloud" are
                        arguably much more substantial than that of
                        the data storage & computing "cloud".
                        Think about it!  Alain

Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving

Chenyi Chen PhD Dissertation , “…the key part of the thesis, a direct perception approach is proposed to drive a car in a highway environment. In this approach, an input image is mapped to a small number of key perception indicators that directly relate to the affordance of a road/traffic state for driving…..” Read more  Hmmm..FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall, Establishing a foundation for image-based autonomous driving using DeepLearning Neural Networks trained in virtual environments. Very promising. Alain

Hearing focus of SF 2569 Autonomous vehicles task force establishment and demonstration project for people with disabilities

March 23 Hmmm… Watch the video of the Committee Meeting.  The testimony is Excellent and very compelling! Also see Self-Driving Minnesota Alain

U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles

                            2015

Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars

                  Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @
                  2015 Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec
                  1.  [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4)  especially
                      at the 13:12 mark.  Compelling; especially
                      after the 60 Minutes segment above!  Also see
                      his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
                      Alain

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