2017-02-16
3rd edition of the 5th year of SmartDrivingCars
February 17, 2017
Motor-vehicle deaths up 6% in 2016
Press release, Feb. 15,"With continued
lower gasoline prices and an improving
economy resulting in an estimated 3%
increase in motor-vehicle mileage, the
number of motor-vehicle deaths in 2016
totaled 40,200, up 6% from 2015 (10% in NJ)
and the first time the annual fatality
total has exceeded 40,000 since 2007.
The 2016 estimate is provisional and may
be revised when more data are available.
The total for 2016 was up 14% from the
2014 figure....
The estimated cost of motor-vehicle
deaths, injuries, and property damage in
2016 was $432.5
billion, an increase of 12% from 2015.
The costs include wage and productivity
losses, medical
expenses, administrative expenses,
employer costs, and property damage...."[Read more](http://www.nsc.org/NewsDocuments/2017/12-month-estimates.pdf)Hmmm...
[Just the facts, mam!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4LPkmGO5Cc) :-( Alain
Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2016 Estimated to be Highest in Nine Years
Press release, Feb. 15, "NSC offers
insight into what drivers are doing and
calls for immediate implementation of
proven, life-saving measures...
With the upward trend showing no sign of
subsiding, NSC is calling for immediate
implementation of life-saving measures
that would set the nation on a [road to zero](http://www.nsc.org/learn/NSC-Initiatives/Pages/The-Road-to-Zero.aspx) deaths:..." [Read more](http://www.nsc.org/Connect/NSCNewsReleases/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=180)Hmmm..."Automated
Collision Avoidance" or anything
having to do with 'Safe-driving
Cars' is not mentioned
anywhere in the Press Release. One
of us is missing something very
fundamental here!! So depressing!!
:-( Alain
U.S. Traffic Deaths Rise for a Second Straight Year
N. Boudette, Feb. 15, "Over the last
decade, new cars have gotten electronic
stability control systems to prevent
skids, rearview cameras to prevent
fender benders and more airbags to
protect occupants in collisions.
Hundreds of millions of dollars have
been spent on campaigns to remind the
public of the dangers of drunken
driving, failing to buckle up and
texting while on the go.
Despite all that, more Americans are
dying on roads and highways than in
years, and the sudden and sharp increase
has alarmed safety advocates....
"The way to bring down the rise in
deaths is with a wide range of the
nuts-and-bolts measures, not
self-driving cars," the consumer
advocate Ralph Nader'55 said
in an interview in October..."
" [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/15/business/highway-traffic-safety.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share)Hmmm...Technically,
Ralph is correct; however, what
would be effective are 'Safe-driving
Cars'. I am dumbfounded by
the malaise of US DoT, NHTSA and the
Insurance industry (including
insurance regulators) in failing to
recognize the virtues that ALWAYS ON
Automated Collision Avoidance, Lane
Keeping and Speed Limiters would
have in actively addressing the
inattention and aggressive driving
that is fueling this growing carnage
on America's roads. Technology
essentially exists today that works
effectively and has a very
attractive ROI; yet this article and
the NSC fail to even mention it.
I'm totally flabbergasted. Alain
Road Warrior: Would you disconnect a safety feature?
J. Cichowski, Feb 16, "If you've
wondered why road crashes are killing
more people now than they were 50 years
ago, the National Safety Council trotted
out many of the same old reasons this
week – speeding, texting, booze, pot,
and gas prices low enough to encourage
us to drive – and crash – more than ever
before.
But in a poll involving 2,001 motorists
that accompanied the NSC's latest
figures, the safety group discovered
another reason, one that rarely gets
much attention: Drivers are disabling
built-in safety features designed to
help them either detect or respond to
risks...." [Read more](http://www.northjersey.com/story/news/columnists/john-cichowski/2017/02/16/road-warrior-would-you-disconnect-safety-feature/97970160/) Hmmm...Of course they are
turned off. They don't work well
enough. They must/should be made so
well that folks don't want to turn
them off. This one is on the car
manufacturers and NHTSA.
Manufacturers haven't been serious
enough about these things nor made
them well enough so that buyers
would NOT turn them off and NHTSA
has not been vigilant enough to
insist that automakers make them
well enough. NHTSA should have
"recalls" to entice the auto
industry to make these well. Also,
many of these systems are/have been
"warnings" and were set such that
they had/have way too many 'false
alarms". Consequently, they are
simply annoying and they should be
turned off. Again, my point has
been that we have simply glossed
over 'Safe-driving cars'.
No one admits that they don't drive
safely, safety isn't 'sexy', and it
doesn't 'sell' (consumers
won't/don't buy). We're all in
denial. In reality, we don't drive
safely, it does end up costing us a
lot (and for some, the ultimate) and
insurance isn't doing
enough/anything to encourage auto
maker to make, and for us to to buy
and not turn-off, Safe-driving
technology even though this is
Insurance's highest fiduciary
responsibility its stock holders. I
simply don't get it! :-( Alain
Young Millennials Top List of Worst Behaved Drivers
T. Johnson, Feb 15, "A new report from
the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety
found that 88 percent of young
millennials engaged in at least one
risky behavior behind the wheel in the
past 30 days, earning the top spot of
worst behaved U.S. drivers. These
dangerous behaviors ― which increase
crash risk ― included texting while
driving, red-light running and speeding.
.." [Read more](https://www.commerce.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/pressreleases?ID=4D1B700B-676A-49E6-9A1D-F6105DC5D888)Hmmm...
see also[Link](https://www.aaafoundation.org/sites/default/files/TeenCrashCausationII.pdf), And
insurers aren't insisting that these
kids only drive 'Safe-driving Cars'
(cars equipped with Automated
Collision Avoidance ,... systems).
i don't get it. They need
technological oversight. Alain
Thune and Peters Announce Joint Effort on Self-Driving Vehicles
Press Release, Feb 13, WASHINGTON – Sen.
John Thune (R-S.D.), the chairman of the
Committee on Commerce, Science, and
Transportation, and Sen. Gary Peters
(D-Mich.) today announced a joint effort
to explore legislation that clears
hurdles and advances innovation in
self-driving vehicle technology. Thune
and Peters offered the following joint
statement on this new partnership:
"More than any other automotive
technology in history, self-driving
vehicles have the potential to
dramatically reduce the more than 35,000
lives lost on our roads and highways
every year and fundamentally transform
the way we get around. Ensuring American
innovators can safely develop and
implement this technology will not only
save lives but also solidify our
nation's position as the world leader in
the future of mobility....[Read more](https://www.commerce.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/pressreleases?ID=4D1B700B-676A-49E6-9A1D-F6105DC5D888)
Hmmm... 'Self-driving' is
interesting; however, Automated
Vehicles have a broad spectrum which
in my mind ranges from
‘Safe-driving’
( Automated Collision Avoidance and Lane Keeping that is on ALL the time ready to spring into action (much like today’s anti-lock brakes and electronic stability control) keeping the driver from getting into a collision-prone situation. This technology is essentially available now and with encouragement from Congress can most quickly deliver substantial safety benefits. ‘Safe-driving’s biggest challenge is that ‘safety does not sell’. Consumers need to be convinced. Congress could help by strongly promoting (without mandating) this safety technology. A simple beginning is by having NHTSA up its safety standards/ratings to explicitly include Automated Collision Avoidance (ACA) systems that actually work be a part of those ratings. NHTSA/congress could also encourage the development of after-market ACA systems so as to accelerate the penetration/adoption of these systems into many of the cars, trucks and buses that are on the road today. ),
‘Self-driving’
(which extends the Safe-driving’s safety benefits and delivers the comfort and convenience of taking hands off the wheel and feet off the pedals some of the time. Since Self-driving extends Safe-driving, it doesn’t itself contribute additional safety except that it delivers comfort and convenience benefits that sell. Indirectly it will be getting consumers ‘to buy safety’. That is why the auto industry is focused on self-driving. It believes consumers will be willing to pay for technology and thereby pay for the base ACA systems. In this arena, Congress/NHTSA need only be welcoming.)
and ‘Driverless’
(this extends self-driving to places/conditions/times when it can do it all the time, never needing any human driving assistance. Driverless will revolutionize mobility in those places/conditions/times by providing inexpensive, sustainable and resilient mobility to ‘everyone’, including freight/goods, in those places/conditions/time. We are close to having driverless in very limited places/conditions/times. Congress could really help by supporting the still needed research and development to as rapidly as possible extend driverless to more places/conditions/times.)
Alain
Congress Could Make Self-Driving Cars Happen—or Ruin Everything
A. Davis, Feb. 15, “Congress just stepped into the robocar game. In the past two days, a pair of senators started drafting legislation to advance autonomous vehicles, and the House Subcommittee on Digital Commerce and Consumer Protection held a two-hour hearing exploring how on the tech might be deployed. For your elected officials, it’s a considerable, if tentative, step into the future of transportation…It could start by revising the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards to reflect autonomous technology. For example, the rules require things like foot-activated brakes. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration can amend the regulations, but it requires several rounds of draft rules and public comments. That takes years. Congress can make the same change quickly with a law, or even a clause tucked into, say, an infrastructure omnibus.
It could also tweak Title 49 of the US
legal code, which allows the secretary
of transportation to exempt vehicles
from federal standards—to a point. The
law (specifically section 30113(d) and
30113(e)) limits those vehicles to
2,500 per manufacturer in a 12-month
period, and the exemption can't last
more than three years. Federal
regulators may be happy to let Google
produce a car without a steering wheel
or brakes, but without congressional
help, that goodwill can only go so
far. [Read more](https://www.wired.com/2017/02/congress-give-self-driving-cars-happen-ruin-everything/) Hmmm...Very
interesting!! Alain
Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning
T. Litman, Jan. 2, "This report explores
the impacts that autonomous vehicles are
likely to have on travel demands and
transportation planning. It discusses
autonomous vehicle benefits and costs,
predicts their likely development and
implementation based on experience with
previous vehicle technologies, and
explores how they will affect planning
decisions such as optimal road, parking
and public transit supply. The analysis
indicates that some benefits, such as
independent mobility for affluent
non-drivers, may begin in the 2020s or
2030s, but most impacts, including
reduced traffic and parking congestion,
independent mobility for low-income
people (and therefore reduced need to
subsidize transit), increased safety,
energy conservation and pollution
reductions, will only be significant
when autonomous vehicles become common
and affordable, probably in the 2040s to
2060s, and some benefits may require
prohibiting human-driven vehicles on
certain roadways, which could take
longer." [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/VIctoriaTransportAV_Predictionsavip.pdf)Hmmm... Very nice study;
however, Table 6 p11 "Navigation
Systems"... 1985 was the absolute
beginning, which would be equivalent
to 2005 for driverless cars.
Navigation started to move in 1997
(When ALK Inc. 1st put CoPilot on
the market) and the adoption was
fueled by CoPilot and other
after-market products which led to
today's total market penetration
over a 30 year span.
The only way to achieve substantial
market penetration of either
Safe-driving Cars or Self-driving
Cars in 30 years (by 2035) is either
through Federal Mandates (as was
achieved with Airbags) or
after-market (as with Navigation).
Driverless Cars could take less time
because they will be a fleet -play
rather than a consumer-play (but
they have yet to start). There is a
lot more in this report worth
serious contemplation. Alain
Ford Bets $1B On Startup Founded By Waymo, Uber Vets
M. Liedtke, Feb. 13, “Ford Motor is spending $1 billion to take over a budding robotics startup to acquire more expertise needed to reach its ambitious goal of having a fully driverless vehicle on the road by 2021. The big bet announced Friday comes just a few months after the Pittsburgh startup, Argo AI, was created by two alumni of Carnegie Mellon University’s robotics program, Bryan Salesky and Peter Rander.
The alliance between Argo and Ford is
the latest to combine the spunk and
dexterity of a technologically savvy
startup with the financial muscle and
manufacturing knowhow of a major
automaker in the race to develop
autonomous vehicles. Last year rival
General Motors paid $581 million to
buy Cruise Automation, a 40-person
software company that is testing
vehicles in San Francisco..." [Read more](https://www.mbtmag.com/news/2017/02/ford-bets-1b-startup-founded-waymo-uber-vets) Hmmm...Very
interesting!! Alain
One Reason Staffers Quit Google’s Car Project? The Company Paid Them So Much
A. Barr, Feb 13, "For the past year,
Google's car project has been a talent
sieve, thanks to leadership changes,
strategy doubts, new startup dreams and
rivals luring self-driving technology
experts. Another force pushing people
out? Money. A lot of it.
Early staffers had an unusual
compensation system that awarded
supersized payouts based on the
project's value. By late 2015, the
numbers were so big that several veteran
members didn't need the job security
anymore, making them more open to other
opportunities, according to people
familiar with the situation. Two people
called it "F-you money."... [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-13/one-reason-staffers-quit-google-s-car-project-the-company-paid-them-so-much) Hmmm...They
earned it! Congratulations! Alain
Fully autonomous shuttle service unveiled in New Zealand
Feb 10, “In the same week that Paris launched a driverless shuttle service on a bridge across the Seine, New Zealand has unveiled its own autonomous shuttle trials at Christchurch Airport. In the first on-road research trials in New Zealand, the fully autonomous, electric-powered Smart Shuttle, which can carry up to 15 people, will run on private roads on the airport campus.
The driverless vehicle trial is being
conducted in partnership with HMI
Technologies, a New Zealand-based
Intelligent Transport System
provider...." [Read more](https://www.driverlessguru.com/blog/fully-autonomous-shuttle-service-unveiled-in-new-zealand) Hmmm...
Congratulations to Paris &
Christchurch! Alain
Las Vegas launches the first electric autonomous shuttle on U.S. public roads
D. Etherington, Jan 11, "Las Vegas,
transportation beat reporters can't quit
you; CES was like a car extravaganza,
and now you're launching a self-driving,
fully electric shuttle on public
streets. The shuttles are the result of
a partnership between shuttle-maker
Navya, fleet logistics provider Keolis
and the city of Las Vegas, and began
picking up members of the public today,
riding a regular route along iconic
Fremont Street between Las Vegas
Boulevard and Eighth Street — right in
the thick of regular traffic.
The route will run between January 11
and 20, and will use Navya's ARMA
shuttle, which previously underwent
testing in the U.S. at the University of
Michigan's MCity autonomous testing
facility, and which has been deployed in
France since 2015.... [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/11/las-vegas-launches-the-first-electric-autonomous-shuttle-on-u-s-public-roads/?ncid=rss&utm_campaign=578deca329852b344600783a&utm_content=5876c7abce0efa441b00017e&utm_medium=smarpshare&utm_source=linkedin) Hmmm...
Old news I had missed.
Alain
Reader’s
Comments..
respect to my comment in the
previous issue:
Hmmm… Some nice ideas; however, Google/Alphabet/Waymo may just offer it for free and have its advertisers pay to have the opportunity to secure your undivided attention to buy stuff during the ride. Hmmmmmm\($ Alain... Steffen Bartschat wrote: "With advertising revenue for Facebook and Google estimated to be in the range of $100 per user per year in the US, I don't see how an advertising revenue model can work to support building, operating, and maintaining an unlimited private transportation service, even if the value of those captive eyeballs increases by an order of magnitude." Hmmm... Steffen, excellent point! I stand corrected. Advertising\)$ aren’t that great. Thank you! Alain
Some other
thoughts that deserve your
attention
###
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
Half-baked
stuff that probably
doesn't deserve your
time
Dubai to launch driverless flying cars by this summer
C. Nelson, Feb 13, “Dubai skies are set to be abuzz with driverless flying cars within months, the emirate’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) announced on Monday, in what will mark another world’s first for the city.
The RTA, in collaboration
with the Chinese firm
Ehang, has carried out the
first test run of an
autonomous aerial vehicle
(AAV) capable of carrying
a human, the Ehang 184,
and the authority said it
is set to launch
operations very soon...."
[Read more](http://m.thenational.ae/business/aviation/dubai-to-launch-driverless-flying-cars-by-this-summer) Hmmm...??????
Alain
###
C’mon Man!(These
folks didn't get/read
the memo)
Driverless cars will attract hefty insurance premium
Feb 16, “MOTORISTS will face high insurance costs to run driverless cars under government plans for specialist policies that cover crashes caused by a vehicle’s on-board computer. Owners will be required to take out one premium covering both driver error and vehicle malfunctions, to ensure that accident victims get easy access to compensation without having to lodge multiple claims.
Legislation being outlined
by the Department for
Transport will force
insurers to pay up even if
cars crash as a result of
being hacked. Ministers
insisted that the all-
encompassing insurance
system, which is outlined
in the Vehicle Technology
and Aviation Bill, to be
published within weeks,
will cut red tape and make
it much easier for
driverless cars to be run
on British roads...." [Read more](https://www.driving.co.uk/news/driverless-cars-will-attract-hefty-insurance-premium/)Hmmm...This
will ensue that
individuals won't own
Driverless Cars
and fleets will
self-insure with
manufacturers. [C'mon Brits](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaSl36Nc0Qw)! Alain
Calendar
of Upcoming Events:
Recent
Highlights of:
#
###
###
February 10, 2017
Regulatory Chill May Pivot Connected Vehicle Tech’s Course
M. Ross, Feb 8, “Technology and telecommunications groups opposed to a federal mandate that cars automatically communicate with each other are hoping the proposal is an early victim of President Donald Trump’s regulatory clampdown.
The Department of
Transportation rushed to
publish a draft rule in
the final days of the
Obama administration that
would mandate all new cars
and light trucks be
equipped to transmit data
to other vehicles to warn
their drivers of potential
collisions. The department
and automobile
manufacturers have been
laying the groundwork for
such a rule for more than
a decade, with millions
of dollars in
testing indicating that
the radio-based technology
could immediately
save lives. No,
that's its fundamental
flaw. Even if you
have it, it can't do
you any good unless
the other guy has it.
Thus it can't do
anything immediately
...The
draft rule could save up
to 1,365 lives each year
by 2060.
Immediately??? I'll
surely be dead and
gone. All that money
spent to get such a
finding.
....The total annual costs
to comply with the mandate
30 years after the rule's
launch range from $2.2
billion to $5 billion,
according to 2016 NHTSA
data. Consumers can expect
to pay about an extra $300
per vehicle equipped with
DSRC technology, the data
show.
That's a lot of 'good
money to be thrown
after bad'. Let's
spend Billions to
justify our Millions
in sunk costs? Much
worse than 'doubling
down' ...Meanwhile,
artificial intelligence,
camera technology, sensors
and radar, which are
already being used in
autonomous vehicle
development, improve
vehicle safety and don't
require cars to be
connected to each other,
Paul Brubaker, president
and CEO of the Alliance
for Transportation
Innovation,..."
Read moreHmmm… Not ‘Regulatory Chill’ but simply Common Sense. C’mon Man! I’m on the AV side of this one. V2V is fine on top of AV, but staying on the DSRC bandwagon is silly when it will be completely obsolesced by 5G before it has sufficient penetration to be better than ‘a hope & a prayer’ in avoiding crashes. V2V requires both vehicles to have the technology. The chance that both cars can even talk to each other, let alone know what to do and do what is needed, to avoid a crash is the product of the adoption percentage of DSRC. So, a mandate today, that pertains only to having DSRC in new cars, will be lucky to be in 30% of the cars by 2025. Thus, the chance that DSRC is even relevant in an impending crash is 0.3 x 0.3 = 0.09. Meaning that there is only about a 10% (1 in 10) chance that DSRC is even relevant in averting a crash. It simply takes a long time to replace the cars that are on the road today with new ones. However, many of us replace our phones with the latest and greatest much more quickly, so that by 2025 it is not unreasonable that as many as 70% of drivers will have 5G phones. The chance that these phones will have the opportunity to be a relevant V2V device in averting a crash is 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49 . Which road should we go down… DSRC mandate giving us at best a 1 in 10 chance of being relevant in 2025 ( and we still need AV to perform the avoidance of the crash) or wait and piggy back on our 5G device that gives us a 1 in 2 chance in 2025 at no additional cost because we will have purchased it for other reasons. Alain February 4, 2017
Autonomous Vehicles Meet Human Drivers: Traffic Safety Issues for States
J. Hedlund, Feb 2017Fully autonomous vehicles – cars and trucks that can drive themselves, without a human
at the controls – are
coming soon. In fact, they
already are on the road. Yes!
...Autonomous
vehicles will change our
lives in many ways. Yes!
... But all
vehicles on the road will
not be autonomous for a
very long time, perhaps
never. Until then,
autonomous vehicles must
share the road with
vehicles driven by humans.
Yes!
How can this
be done safely? States are
responsible for safety on
the roads – for licensing
drivers, registering
vehicles, and establishing
and enforcing traffic
laws. So states must take
the lead in dealing with
the many traffic safety
issues that a mix of
driver-operated and
autonomous vehicles will
bring. Yes!
In
particular, states should
help educate the public
about the benefits that
autonomous vehicles will
bring and the risks that
they may present, educate
drivers of semi-autonomous
vehicles about their
driving responsibilities,
and educate all drivers
about how to share the
road safely with
autonomous vehicles. Yes!
This report
should help states
understand and address
these issues. It's written
for state Departments of
Transportation (DOTs),
Departments of Motor
Vehicles (DMVs), and State
Highway Safety Offices
(SHSOs)....Great!
The public’s views on new technology can change quickly. AVs today may well be similar to automobiles a century ago or smart phones only 10 years ago: a new technology with a few ardent supporters and many skeptics initially but which quickly became both acceptable and highly desirable. As Henry Ford is purported to have said regarding automobiles (probably incorrectly), “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Also, today’s teenagers are more accepting of AVs: in the Kelley Blue Book survey, 48% of respondents age 12-15 said they would be comfortable riding in an AV compared to 36% of all respondents….Yes!
Laws or regulations formed in haste may hinder rather than help AV testing and implementation. (p17) Yes! “ Read more Hmmm… This is a very well written and well referenced report that is well balanced and properly presents the challenges. Some modest suggestions are: Abandon the SAE/NHTSA Levels and go with 3 types/classes/levels: Safe-Driving, Self-driving and Driverless. Also, this is not the first technological change that DMVs have faced. The advent of turn signals changed driver testing. Self-driving is really not that much different. DMVs could start by addressing cruise control in that they could promote & educate on the best use of cruise control. By the way, I am not aware of a single sign along any highway encouraging/promoting/prohibiting the use of cruise control. DMVs could start with that since it really is not much different that Self-driving. Alain January 27, 2017
Serving the Nation’s Personal Mobility Needs with the Casual Sharing of autonomousTaxis & Today’s Urban Rail, Amtrak and Air Transport Systems
A. Kornhauser, Jan 14, “Orf467F16 Final Project Symposium quantifying implications of such a Nation-wide mobility system on Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO), energy, environment and congestion, including estimates of fleet size, needed empty vehicle repositioning, and ridership implications on existing rail transit systems (west, east, NYC) and Amtrak of a system that would efficiently and effectively perform their ‘1st mile’/’last-mile’ mobility needs. Read more Hmmm… Now linked are 1st Drafts of the chapters and the powerPoint summaries of these elements. Final Report should be available by early February. The major finding is, nationwide there exists sufficient casual ridesharing potential that a well–managed Nationwide Fleet of about 30M aTaxis (in conjunction with the existing air, Amtrak and Urban fixed-rail systems) could serve the vehicular mobility needs of the whole nation with VMT 40% less than today’s automobiles while providing a Level-of-Service (LoS) largely equivalent and in many ways superior than is delivered by the personal automobile today. Also interesting are the findings as to the substantial increased patronage opportunities available to Amtrak and each of the fixed rail transit systems around the country because the aTaxis solve the ‘1st and last mile’ problem. While all of this is extremely good news, the challenging news is that since all of these fixed rail systems currently lose money on each passenger served, the additional patronage would likely mean that they’ll lose even more money in the future. :-( Alain
January 20, 2017
Fiscal Year 2016 SRD Program Grant Selections
Public Announcement, Jan 22: “Pierce Transit will receive $1,664,894 to deploy buses equipped with collision avoidance warning systems or automatic braking features. The objective of this project is to deploy and demonstrate collision avoidance technology in partnership with the Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP), a collaborative organization of 25 Washington public transit agencies that combine their resources to provide and purchase insurance coverage, manage claims and litigation, and receive risk management and training. Pierce Transit will work with WSTIP to accurately determine the business case for investing in these technologies.” Read moreHmmm… Finally!! More than 3 years since Lou Sanders of APTA, Jerome Lutin and I first proposed to FTA to do such a thing for the benefit of the entire bus transit industry (which FTA deemed as non-worthy) the FTA has finally turned around and jumped on-board. The unfortunate news: we lost 3 years. The fortunate news: the process of substantially reducing bus crashes is finally underway thanks to the hard work in the interim by Jerome Lutin and Jerry Spears (formerly of WSTIP). This and the good news below from Tesla may finally enlighten the insurance industry to play a leadership role in the market adoption of SafeDrivingCars/Buses/Trucks. Congratulations Jerome & Jerry! Alain
ODI (Office of Defects Investigation) Findings on Tesla AEB & AutoPilot
###
(Above link should work) Jan 19, “… Summary: … NHTSA’s examination did not identify any defects in the design or performance of the AEB or Autopilot systems of the subject vehicles nor any incidents in which the systems did not perform as designed. AEB systems used in the automotive industry through MY 2016 are rear-end collision avoidance technologies that are not designed to reliably perform in all crash modes, including crossing path collisions. The Autopilot system is an Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) that requires the continual and full attention of the driver to monitor the traffic environment and be prepared to take action to avoid crashes. Tesla’s design included a hands-on the steering wheel system for monitoring driver engagement…
... ODI analyzed data
from crashes of Tesla
Model S and Model X
vehicles involving
airbag deployments that
occurred while operating
in, or within 15 seconds
of transitioning from,
Autopilot mode. Some
crashes involved impacts
from other vehicles
striking the Tesla from
various directions with
little to no warning to
the Tesla driver. Other
crashes involved
scenarios known to be
outside of the
state-of-technology for
current-generation Level
1 or 2 systems, such as
cut-ins, cut-outs and
crossing path
collisions....
...The Florida fatal
crash appears to have
involved a period of
extended distraction (at
least 7 seconds)..." .Hmmm... nothing
else is written
about this nor is
a basis given for
the 'at least 7
seconds'.
Possibly the most
important
information
revealed in this
summary is Figure
11, p11: "...
Figure 11 shows
the rates
calculated by
ODI for airbag
deployment
crashes in the
subject Tesla
vehicles before
and after
Autosteer
installation.
The data show
that the Tesla
vehicles crash
rate dropped by
almost 40
percent after
Autosteer
installation...
...A
safety-related
defect trend has
not been
identified at
this time and
further
examination of
this issue does
not appear to be
warranted.
Accordingly,
this investigation
is closed. " [Read more](http://www.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/Orf467F16/NHTSA_ODI_FindingsOnTeslaFloridaCrash.PDF) Hmmm...
WOW!!! . Every
word of this Finding
is worth reading.
It basically
exonerates Tesla,
states that AEBs
(Automated Emergency
Braking) systems
don't really work
and aren't designed
to work in some
scenarios (straight
crossing path (SCP)
and left turn across
path (LTAP), see p
2,3). ...which
suggests, to me,
that DoT/NHTSA
should be placing
substantial efforts
on making these
systems really work
in more scenarios.
And... there is the
solid data
that 'AutoSteer"
reduced Tesla
crashes by almost
40%!!! WOW!! Will
Insurance now
finally get on-board
and lead? Alai
January 13, 2017
Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx Announces New Federal Committee on Automation
News, Jan 10, “…U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “I’m proud to announce this new automation committee, and look forward to seeing its members advance life-saving innovations while boosting our economy and making our transportation network more fair, reliable, and efficient.”… Read more Hmmm… Excellent!!! Congratulations Chris, Bryant, Missy and everyone else. Alain
January 4, 2017
Volume 4, Issue 3
M. Sena, Jan. 5, “In This Issue:
Report from Dispatch Central 1 “…While the 12 million people in the EU who earn their livings directly from the automotive industry are delighted by the news that car sales figures for Novem-ber were up significantly, and it looks like 2016 will be another banner year, there are people in governments doing everything in their power to make both building and owning motorized vehicles economically unviable…” Read more Hmmm…Very interesting!
Autonomous Driving News Apple’s Letter to NHTSA 1 “…The Vehicle Safety Act requires companies to certify vehicles to the FMVSS (Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards) before first sale. But this law applies to new motor vehicles intended for sale to the public, and by implication, by companies that make and sell cars, not companies like Apple that may or may not intend to sell cars. Further, FAST Act2 specifically allows car makers, but not non-car makers, to test on public roads without requiring ex-emptions from FMVSS…Read more “ Hmmm… Very interesting!
What Car Companies Are Doing 2 “…So Uber must have made Volvo a pretty sweet offer when it gets rid of all the drivers with their own cars and has its own fleet of driverless cars…Read more” Hmmm…Very interesting!
Reurbanization or Spreading the Sprawl 3 “…Where do you want to go? My chart below has two opposing scenarios. In the top scenario, we keep doing what we have been doing. In the bottom sce-nario, we try to match policies with desired results. You choose…Read more” Hmmm…Very interesting!
Automotive Navigation-The Future of Traffic Info 4 “…ROUTE GUIDANCE WITHOUT
traffic information is
useless..[Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/The%20Dispatcher_5_January%202017.pdf)" Hmmm...Stop
right there. We've
known that! The
connected world will
not get here until
most of road vehicles
are part of what will
be but a few competing
fleets. It is those
fleet owners/managers
that will find it
compelling to deploy
connectedness
throughout their own
fleets. Any meaningful
sharing of data
between competing
fleets is not in any
future that I foresee.
It may even violate
anti-trust laws
(Unless Putin takes
over the world).
Alain
Musings of a Dispatcher – Civilis cogitationes 6 “…I did not see a lot of people cycling to their jobs when I was in Västerås in the early autumn of this year. Like most places in Europe
and the U.S., when cars
became affordable for
people with even modest
incomes—starting in the
50s in the U.S. and in the
60s in Europe—it was a
delight for workers to get
out of the rain and snow
and into their own car.
It's the same today in
emerging markets,
especially China,.." [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/The%20Dispatcher_5_January%202017.pdf) Hmmm...Our
only hope is
"Driverless"! Alain
December 24, 2016
Waymo’s 100 autonomous Chrysler minivans are here
J. Golson, Dec 19, “Chrysler has completed the 100 autonomous Pacifica minivans that will join the Waymo (née Google) fleet in early 2017. The vans, which are plug-in hybrid variants with Waymo’s self-driving hardware and software built in, are part of a partnership between Fiat Chrysler (FCA) and Waymo that was announced earlier this year.
Waymo CEO John Krafcik said last week that his company is not interested in “making better cars.” Instead, it wants to make “better drivers.”…”
Read more Hmmm…Nice that these vehicles are targeted to a ride-sharing market (more seating capacity and easier in&out than the Prius/Lexus/Bug.)
However, the quote by John Krafcik is VERY troubling. To make “better drivers” all one needs is Automated Collision Avoidance systems (or what I’ve termed ‘Safe-driving cars’). That is indeed a laudable goal; however, that goal can be reached with a lot less hardware and software than what is in these modified Pacificas (which have a conventional steering wheel, brake & throttle pedals and driver’s seat). But Safe-driving cars aren’t helpful to the Steve Mahan’s of this world (or to the young, or the Ubers or enable the Modified Pacifica’s to offer inexpensive high-quality shared-ride on-demand mobility to all. Most unfortunately, what all of the extra gizmos on the modified Pacificas enable is for the driver to be better able to consume Google Ads for part of his/her time trapped in this vehicle. So a more honest quote might have been: it wants to make “better drivers who can better consume Google Ads.” No wonder Chris bailed! :-( Alain
December 14, 2016
Google is spinning off its self-driving car program into a new company called Waymo
A. Hawkins, Dec 13, “Today, Google announced that it would be spinning off its six-year-old self-driving project into a standalone business called Waymo, which stands for “a new way forward in mobility,” according to John Krafcik, the CEO of the new company.
It was previously reported
that Google would be
dropping its plan to build
its own vehicle without
steering wheels and
pedals, instead focusing
on creating the
self-driving technology
that can be installed in
third-party vehicles.
Krafcik didn't provide
much clarity there, but
did state definitively
that the new company was
still fully committed to
fully autonomous vehicle
technology.
"We are all in, 100
percent, on Level Four and
Level Five fully
driverless solutions," he
said.
Krafcik didn't comment on
a report in Bloomberg that
Google would be starting
its own ride-sharing
service in partnership
with Fiat Chrysler using
the Italian car maker's
Pacifica minivans as its
fleet of self-driving
taxis. Google and FCA
announced their
collaboration earlier this
year. Krafcik did confirm
that the self-driving
Pacificas were still in
the build phase, but would
hopefully be on the road
for testing very soon.
It may be too soon to say
that Google is abandoning
its plans to build it's
own fleet of driverless
cars, without steering
wheels and pedals. That
said, Krafcik made it
clear that Waymo "is not a
car company, there's been
some confusion on that
point. We're not in
business of making better
cars, we're in the
business of making better
drivers."...[Read more](http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/13/13936782/google-self-driving-car-waymo-spin-off-company)
Hmmm... Boy
that is a lot of
hedging. If they are
in the business of
making better drivers,
then all they need to
do is to make
Automated Collision
Avoidance systems that
actually work... avoid
collisions (aka
Safe-driving Cars).
That would make all
drivers better
drivers, but it
wouldn't do anything
for non-drivers... the
young, old, poor,
blind, those under the
influence, ... Has
Google abandoned all
of those folks and
reverted to the
'dark-side'? Alain
December 7, 2016
Why the driverless car industry is happy (so far) with Trump’s pick for Transportation secretary
R. Mitchell, Dec 6, “Silicon Valley voted heavily for Hillary Clinton, but companies working on driverless cars seem overjoyed with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Transportation secretary, Elaine Chao. Chao will wield great power over how driverless cars and other automated vehicles will be regulated — or not….Industry insiders say they don’t want Chao to ignore driverless car policy….
Instead, they hope to
avoid a patchwork of
differing and conflicting
rules across the 50
states. "This should be
centralized," said Alain
L. Kornhauser, director of
the transportation program
at Princeton University
and an autonomous vehicle
expert, "but that doesn't
mean the states don't play
a part. It would be better
if we had a common
understanding...." [Read more](http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-chao-trump-driverless-20161205-story.html)Hmmm... Yup!
Alain
November 20, 2016
DSRC’s ‘Dead End,’ Says Qualcomm Exec
J, Yoshida, Nov 15, “…Qualcomm’s pending takeover of NXP Semiconductors isn’t making the path to V2X any clearer.
NXP remains a staunch
advocate for DSRC-based
V2X (as demonstrated via
truck platooning on Munich
roads last week during
Electronica). Qualcomm, a
leading voice and force
behind the progress of the
cellular standards, is
sticking to its cellular
radio technology-based V2X
evolution...We see this as
a continued cellular
revolution with new
elements coming in... " [Read more](http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1330834) Hmmm...V2X
is important, but
primarily as a
complement to
vehicle-centered
automated collision
avoidance and not as a
centralized
orchestration of
individual vehicles.
Finally seeing this
as: "We see
this as a continued
cellular revolution
with new elements
coming in..."
may bring some reality
to V2X. Alain
October 27, 2016
Ontario Must Prepare for Vehicle Automation
B. Grush, Oct. 2016, “Two contradictory stories about our transportation infrastructure are currently in circulation. One is that Ontario’s aging, inadequate and congested infrastructure is perennially unable to catch up with a growing and sprawling GTHA. The other is that vehicle automation will soon dramatically multiply current road capacity by enabling narrower lanes, shorter headways and coordinated streams of connected vehicles to pass through intersections without traffic signals to impede flow.
Since the premature
forecast of peak car in
2008 and now the hype
surrounding the automated
vehicle, we are often told
that we have enough road
capacity; that shared
robotic taxis will
optimize our trips, reduce
congestion, and largely
eliminate the need for
parking. This advice
implies we need wait only
a few short years to
experience relief from our
current infrastructure
problems given by decades
of under-investment in
transportation
infrastructure.
This is wishful thinking. Vehicle automation will give rise to two different emerging markets: semi-automated vehicles for household consumption and fully automated vehicles for public service such as robo-taxi and robo-transit. These two vehicle types will develop in parallel to serve different social markets. They will compete for both riders and infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to look at why and how government agencies and public interest groups can and should influence the preferred types and deployment of automated vehicles and the implication of related factors for planning…” Read moreHmmm…Bravo! The Key Findings & Recommendations are excellent. This is an excellent report (but it largely misses goods movement.) Especially 5.1 (read ‘semi-autonomous’ as ‘Self-driving’ and ‘full-automation’ as ‘Driverless’. My view: Driverless may well be at the heals of Self-driving because it is a business play rather than a consumer play. Driverless will be ordered by the hundreds or thousands rather than individually.) and, of course Ch 10: Ownership (the business model) is more important than technology. Alain
October 7, 2016
An Alarming 10% Rise in Traffic Deaths in the First Half of 2016
D. Victor, Oct. 5, “Traffic deaths in the United States rose 10.4 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period in 2015, maintaining a steady climb….
The [numbers were released on Wednesday](https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812332) by the
National Highway Traffic
Safety Administration,
which noted that Americans
drove about 50.5 billion
more miles in the first
six months of 2016 than in
the first half of 2015, an
increase of 3.3
percent....Officials have
not identified a specific
cause for the most recent
increase... " [Read more](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/traffic-deaths-up-more-than-10-percent-in-first-half-of-2016.html?_r=0)Hmmm...worst
kept
secret...Texting!!!
It is an epidemic and
the way to address it
begins with Automated
Collision Avoidance
Systems (ACAS)...what
is on the shelf today
(if it only really
worked), and a
necessary foundation
for Self-driving
(which improves
Quality-of-Life for
some but increases
VMT) and Driverless
(which improves
Quality-of-Life for
all and decreases
VMT). Alain
September 23, 2016
Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety
September 2016, “Executive Summary…For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. (p5)
…The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)
…The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)
…The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6) Hmmm…Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY. We all have recognized safety as a necessary condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful. (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition. Alain
“…we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (…defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm…Perfect! Alain
“…1. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p6)…“ Hmmm… 15 Points, more later. Alain
“…2. Model State Policy (p7) The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities…but… The shared objective is to ensure the establishment of a consistent national framework rather than a patchwork of incompatible laws…” Hmmm… Well done. Alain
“…3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) … This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to…” Hmmm… Excellent. Alain
“…4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)…The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)…“ Hmmm… Yes. Alain
“…Note on “Levels of Automation” There are multiple definitions for various levels of automation and for some time there has been need for standardization to aid clarity and consistency. Therefore, this Policy adopts the SAE International (SAE) definitions for levels of automation. ) Hmmm… I’m not sure this adds clarity because it does not deal directly with the difference between self-driving and driverless. While it might be implied in level 4 and level 5 that these vehicles can proceed with no one in the vehicle, it is not stated explicitly. That is unfortunate, because driverless freight delivery can’t be done without “driverless”; neither can mobility-on-demand be offered to the young, old, blind, inebriated, …without “driverless”. Vehicles can’t be “repositioned-empty” (which (I don’t mean to offend anyone) is the real value of a taxi driver today). So autonomousTaxis are impossible.
Also, these levels do
not address Automated
Emergency Braking
(AEB) Systems and
Automated Lane Keeping
Systems which are the
very first systems
whose on-all-the-time
performance must be
perfected. These are
the Safety Foundation
of HAV (Highly
Automated vehicles).
I understand that the
guidelines may assume
that these systems are
already perfect and
that "[20 manufacturer have committed"](http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-iihs-commitment-on-aeb-03172016) to
have AEB on all new
cars, but to date
these systems really
don't work. In 12 mph
[IIHS test,](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/front-crash-prevention-tests) [few stop](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/iihs-issues-first-crash-avoidance-ratings-under-new-test-program-7-midsize-vehicles-earn-top-marks-for-front-crash-prevention) before [hitting the target](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/front-crash-prevention-tests), and,
as we
may have seen with
the Florida [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar)
crash, the Level
2/3 AutoPilot may
not have failed,
but, instead, it
was the "Phantom
Level 1" AEB that
is supposed to be
on all the time.
This is not
acceptable. These AEB
systems MUST get
infinitely better
now. It is a shame
that AEBs were were
not explicitly
addressed in this
document.
“…I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7) However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems
are subject to NHTSA's
defects, recall and
enforcement authority.
(footnote 8) . and
the "[15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/technology/the-15-point-federal-checklist-for-self-driving-cars.html?_r=0)"
p17)
In sum this is a very good document and displays just how far DoT policy has come from promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized control, “connected”, focus to creating an environment focused on individual vehicles that responsibly take care of themselves. Kudos to Secretary Foxx for this 180 degree policy turn focused on safety. Once done correctly, the HAV will yield the early safety benefits that will stimulate continued improvements that, in turn, will yield the great mobility, environmental and quality-of-life benefits afforded by driverless mobility.
What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit. NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines. FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight. Alain
August 19, 2016
Ford Promises Fleets of Driverless Cars Within Five Years
N. Boudette, Aug 16, “In the race to develop driverless cars, several automakers and technology companies are already testing vehicles that pilot themselves on public roads. And others have outlined plans to expand their development fleets over the next few years. At a news conference on Tuesday at the company’s research center in Palo Alto, Calif., Mark Fields, Ford’s chief executive, said the company planned to mass produce driverless cars and have them in commercial operation in a ride-hailing service by 2021….
"That means there's going
to be no steering wheel.
There's going to be no gas
pedal. There's going to be
no brake pedal,'' he said.
...." [Read mor](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/ford-promises-fleets-of-driverless-cars-within-five-years.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/business/ford-promises-fleets-of-driverless-cars-within-five-years.html?_r=0)e Hmmm...This
is significant because
it implies that Ford,
(or an entity under
its control) will
operate and deliver on
a day-to-day basis
MaaS (Mobility as a
Service). In other
words it will both
build/assemble and
operate mobility's
"Cloud". The scale
economies of such a
mobility "cloud" are
arguably much more
substantial than that
of the data storage
& computing
"cloud". Think about
it! Alain
August 1, 2016
Mobileye Ends Partnership With Tesla
July 11, 2016
Lessons From the Tesla Crash
July 5, 2016
7 Crash
Hmmm…What we know now (and don’t know):
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Chenyi Chen PhD Dissertation , “…the key part of the thesis, a direct perception approach is proposed to drive a car in a highway environment. In this approach, an input image is mapped to a small number of key perception indicators that directly relate to the affordance of a road/traffic state for driving…..” Read more Hmmm..FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall, Establishing a foundation for image-based autonomous driving using DeepLearning Neural Networks trained in virtual environments. Very promising. Alain
March 25, 2016
Hearing focus of SF 2569 Autonomous vehicles task force establishment and demonstration project for people with disabilities
March 23 Hmmm… Watch the video of the Committee Meeting. The testimony is Excellent and very compelling! Also see Self-Driving Minnesota Alain
March 17, 2016
U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
February 18, 2016
Motor Vehicle Deaths Increase by Largest Percent in 50 Years
December 19, 2015
Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars
Video similar to part of
Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015
Florida Automated Vehicle
Symposium on Dec 1. [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4) especially
at the 13:12 mark.
Compelling; especially
after the 60 Minutes
segment above! Also see
his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
Alain
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