2017-03-03
5th edition of the 5th year of SmartDrivingCars
March 3, 2017
Buffett has an interesting theory about why self-driving cars will hurt the insurance industry
E. Gurdus, Feb 27, “The self-driving car business could become a major threat to insurance companies when the technology hits the market, billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.
If autonomous vehicles prove to be
safer than regular cars, insurance
costs will plummet, and by the time
roads are filled with self-driving
cars insurers like Geico will have
taken a serious hit, Buffett said...
“If I had to take the over and under [bet] ten years from now on whether 10 percent of the cars on the road would be self-driving, I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong,” he said….” Read moreHmmm…Really shouldn’t go against Buffet; however, he’s going to be smiling all the way to the bank. I just don’t see how the premise implies Geico takes a serious hit. I tell everyone that I don’t understand insurance. I guess I just don’t understand insurance. :-(
I suspect that by cars he means cars + light trucks for which there are about 250M currently registered in the US with 38% being greater than 10 years old. Assuming these basic numbers remain roughly constant: of the 155M vehicles sold in the next 10 years, 25M or 16% would need to be ‘Self-driving’. Since we are starting from a zero base with zero production, we are going to need to be upwards of a 30% adoption rate in the 10th year in order to have populated 16% of the fleet through that year. So, I agree with Warren wrt ‘Self-driving’”: “I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong” Wrt ‘Safe-driving, I would take the over, because the early numbers are attainable, especially if Insurance comes on board. Wrt ‘Diverless’: No way unless they are manufactured by a non-traditional entity that is totally disruptive in years 8, 9 and 10. Alain
Infrastructure: No Specifics on Infrastructure, but Reforms Can Pave the Way
M. Seargent, Mar 1, "Although Trump's
speech did not yield many hard
details, it's clear that enacting a
"new program of national rebuilding"
to fix the nation's "crumbling" roads,
bridges, tunnels, airports, and
railways continues to be a priority
for him. (It must be noted that
federal data show that the real state
of [highways](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/pocket_guide_to_transportation/2014/1_Infrastructure/table1_5)
and [bridges](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_28.html)
is solid and is improving)...When it
comes to fixing the nation's
infrastructure, he can keep his
promise by seizing the opportunity and
taking a [better road](http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2016/BlueprintforReform.pdf#page=95) to restoring American
infrastructure..." [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/M.SargentAtHeritageFoundationInfrastructure030117.pdf)Hmmm...Awaiting
the details, but the Heritage
recommendations for US DoT in the
next 10 years in the appendix of [Blueprint for Reform](http://thf_media.s3.amazonaws.com/2016/BlueprintforReform.pdf#page=55) (p 85, 130)
aren't encouraging. The private
sector is going to have to do it.
Alain
Despite Trump’s Infrastructure Pledge, Governors Expect Little Federal Spending
S. Leavenworth, Feb 28, “President Donald Trump said again Monday that he was preparing to spend big on infrastructure. But even as he spoke, administration officials and congressional leaders were telling governors to expect little new federal investment in roads, bridges, transit systems, dam repairs and other water works.
Instead, the administration and
congressional leaders plan to take a
more incremental approach of
spurring public-private partnerships
_ such as toll roads _ by loosening
environmental reviews, removing
other red tape and possibly
approving new tax credits. While
some governors say private projects
will provide little help in
repairing their aging
infrastructure, others say they will
be forced to embrace the fiscal
reality.... [Read more](http://www.governing.com/topics/transportation-infrastructure/tns-trump-governors-infrastructure.html) Hmmm...As
with any national system, there
is cross-subsidization
throughout the network. Some
segments are blessed with
enormous volumes, others, not so
much. Using tolls instead of
gas taxes to achieve that
balance seems to simply be
asking for problems from the
heaviest player: interstate
commerce (trucking) and the
tourism industries. Seems as if
there are better fights to
fight. The gas tax is simple
and it exists. Lowering it wont
feel like a tax cut and tolling
seems to impact everyone. Alain
Waymo’s Uber Lawsuit May Be Start Of A Google Patent War
a. Ohnsman, Mar 1, “Google’s self-driving car project that began in 2009 is well known as the incubator that kickstarted a multi-billion dollar race to perfect this 21st automotive technology. Along the way, it also helped Google amass hundreds, perhaps thousands, of patents covering every aspect of software, hardware and on-road behavior for automated vehicles. The blistering lawsuit filed against Uber and its Otto driverless truck unit by Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo alleging trade secret theft, based on alleged actions by a former Google engineer now at Uber, also makes clear that the company intends to aggressively protect that patent trove and big head start…
Google has never revealed how much it’s invested to master self-driving cars, ….Hmmm…In it less than 10 years; couldn’t have spent more than $100M in any year. So way less than $1B; probably less than $0.5B. What a bargain for… A cursory review by Forbes shows that Google has been granted 260 U.S. patents that specifically refer to autonomous vehicles (including some for aerial drones) and 176 patents that reference designs and usage for LiDAR. Given many years of work by Google Maps and Alphabet’s machine learning and robotics teams at its X skunkworks facility, presumably its intellectual property goes far beyond patents that clearly relate to self-driving cars. …“Right now, what those DMV figures tell you is they are in a class by themselves,” Alex Lidow, CEO of EPC…“Read moreHmmm…We can’t be Wolkswagonish about IP or anything we do wrt SmartDrivingCars. Let’s all behave. It is still very early and there is enough value and benefit for everyone here. Alain
Watch This Tesla Autopilot 2.0 Fail Terribly in a Model S
M. Guy, Feb 28, "For well over a year,
the Tesla Autopilot system has been
the controversial standard-bearer of
autonomous driving technology. Using a
combination of RADAR and software that
is all but bulletproof, its
capabilities have won over skeptics
and fanboys alike and kept Level 1 to
3 heavyweights like Mercedes and BMW
on their toes.
Which is why YouTube videos like this
one, in which the "Scott S." takes his
Model S with HW2/AP2 and updated with
the software build 17.5.36 out for a
drive at night, in dry weather on a
windy road. According to his
description, he has autosteer and
traffic-aware cruise control (TACC)
engaged on his local loop road. And
yet the car seems to be struggling to
maintain the lane, despite a clearly
marked double yellow and consistent
curbing on the right side of the road.
Tesla still leads the field in ADAS
(Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems),
and the cloud-based AI that Tesla is
developing will eventually mitigate
the dangers demonstrated so clearly in
this video. Until then, Tesla folks:
hands on the wheel please. [Read more](http://www.thedrive.com/news/7915/watch-this-tesla-autopilot-2-0-fail-terribly-in-a-model-s)Hmmm...Mike,
wise advice. Alain
Self-Driving-Truck Startups Race to Take On Uber
T. Higins, Mar 2, "... While much of
the autonomous-vehicle attention has
centered on the race to embed the
technology in everyday cars—...—is
ripe for change.
The industry is struggling to find
drivers, regulations governing working
hours are squeezing profits, and some
artificial-intelligence experts
believe computer brains can more
easily master highways than
complicated city streets. "It's an
industry that has clear need, where
there is a substantial driver
shortage, particularly of drivers that
are experienced who are safe and
talented," said Alex Rodrigues, a
21-year-old robotics expert, last
week. He was sitting in the back of a
royal blue Peterbilt truck,
retrofitted by his company, San
Francisco-based Embark, with two laser
sensors and cameras to test
self-driving software on public roads
in Nevada and on a closed course in
California.
Embark and fellow startups Starsky Robotics and Drive.ai all emerged in the past week with details about their plans. Their engineers, bearing top artificial-intelligence pedigrees, are seeking a way to replace drivers in commercial fleets…Read moreHmmm…Certainly to improve safety, substantially reduce liability expectations, extend hours of service and greatly improve the driver’s work environment. :-) But to remove the driver from the class-8 truck… Not going to happen in anybody’s investment cycle! Alain
INFLUENCE GAME: GM bill is self-driving and self-interested
J. Lowy, Feb 23, " WASHINGTON (AP) --
With states seizing the initiative on
shaping the future of self-driving
cars, General Motors is trying to
persuade lawmakers across the country
to approve rules that would benefit
the automaker while potentially
keeping its competitors off the road.
The carmaker denies trying to freeze
out other brands, but legislators in
four states say GM lobbyists asked
them to sponsor bills that the
company's competitors contend would do
just that. The bills set a blueprint
for the introduction of fully
self-driving cars that are part of
on-demand, ride-sharing fleets, but
they must be owned by an
automaker...." [Read more](http://www.apnewsarchive.com/2017/General-Motors-is-trying-to-persuade-state-lawmakers-to-approve-self-driving-car-rules-that-would-benefit-the-automaker-while-potentially-keeping-its-competitors-off-the-road/id-fb906060c89442a3b17cf800f00b3455) Hmmm...One
needs to be very careful here.
Self-driving is NOT Driverless.
It is also not Safe-driving.
Safety is achieved with
Safe-driving (Automated Collision
Avoidance) and doesn't need
Self-driving (ability to at times
take hands off wheel and feet off
pedals). Unfortunately
Self-driving doesn't sell (as
Volvo knows all too well) and
Warren Buffet doesn't believe in
it. However, GM knows
Self-driving will sell, especially
to 1%ers ([notice Cadillac ads during Oscars](http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/news/cadillac-rolls-new-ad-spots-oscars-article-1.2983645)).
Driverless, which give consumers
reason to not buy cars is GM's
worst nightmare . Alain
Building a Road Map for the Self-Driving Car
N. Boudette, Mar 2, "..."If we want to
have autonomous cars everywhere, we
have to have digital maps everywhere,"
said Amnon Shashua, chief technology
officer at Mobileye, ..." Hmmm...Maybe
not!?!? "...The
reason digital maps are so important
is that even the most advanced
sensors, like radar and cameras, are
not enough to enable a car to navigate
a chaotic and changing world
safely enough..." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/02/automobiles/wheels/self-driving-cars-gps-maps.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share) Hmmm...but
maps can't contain the chaotic
and changing (other cars,
bicycles, pedestrians...) because
they're chaotic
and changing!
Sensors and their intelligence
have to do the chaotic
and changing. Since
these sensors have to do
the hard part: chaotic and changing,
they
might as well also do the easy
part: recognize the signs, and
lane markings (which need to be on
all the roads that we drive today
because we don't have the maps in
our brains). What am I missing???
Alain
Peugeot’s Instinct concept car is its vision of an autonomous near-future
A. Toor, Feb 27, "..."In the future,
maybe you will have cars that can be
only autonomous, and it will be
forbidden to drive anymore," says
Matthias Hossann, head of concept car
and advanced design at Peugeot. "But
this transition will be very long,
and what we wanted to illustrate here
is part of this transition, because
this will take time."...Hossann said
that unlike previous concept cars, the
Instinct was designed from the
inside-out. The idea is that drivers
will be able to choose how much
control they want to cede to the car —
there are two self-driving modes and
two active modes — and that the car,
in turn, will be able to adjust its
driving based on data collected from
connected devices....[Read more](http://www.theverge.com/2017/2/27/14743922/peugeot-instinct-concept-car-mwc)Hmmm...The
transition will be very long
and in the mean time, we'll be
buying these things from the
legacy manufacturers. Alain
Automaker Geely calls on China to relax mapping rules to speed self-drive development
J. Spring, Mar 2, " Chinese automaker
Geely [GEELY.UL] called on the
government on Thursday to loosen
strict controls on mapping, saying
current rules in place for national
security reasons risk inhibiting the
development of self-driving
vehicles...." [Read more](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-geely-idUSKBN169165)Hmmm...Long
overdue. Alain
Self-driving Nissan car takes to Europe’s streets for first time
C. Pitas, Feb.28, " Guided by cameras
and radars, and negotiating traffic
and roundabouts, a self-driving Nissan
car took to the streets of London on
Monday for the Japanese company's
first European tests of an autonomous
vehicle. Traveling at up to 50 miles
(80 km) per hour and moving from local
streets to a major multi-lane road,
the modified Nissan LEAF electric car
showcased the kind of technology many
hope to be the future of travel.
It also recently announced changes to
allow for a single insurance policy to
cover motorists driving conventionally
and in autonomous mode, as it tries to
get regulations in place to encourage
the uptake of driverless cars from
2020..." [Read more](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-autos-driverless-idUSKBN16621H) Hmmm...Doesn't
seem like such a big deal. It is
'only' Self-driving and it is
novel for the UK, so great. But
what is all of this about having
insurance to pay for the losses
that we cause? Alain
Ford wants drones to join forces with self-driving vans for faster deliveries
A. Sulleyman, Feb 28, “Ford has revealed its ‘Autolivery’ concept for what it calls the ‘city of tomorrow’, and envisions a future in which packages are delivered to houses by self-driving vans and drones…. Read more Hmmm…Driverless-vans Yes! Drones & Self-driving-vans…not so much! Alain
A Fascinating Glimpse at How We’ll All Carpool in 2027
L. Stinson, Feb 28, "...A new project
from acclaimed design firm Ideo
presents one of the most compelling
visions to date of an autonomous,
ride-sharing future. It places the car
at the center of a new marketplace,
one where owners of an autonomous
vehicle can toggle between ride
sharing, car sharing, and private use.
Drivers can choose to ride solo or
offset the cost of their car by
picking up passengers or renting it to
others. The passengers, too, can
reduce the price of their trips by
agreeing to run errands for the owner.
Ideo's concept envisions what happens
when private vehicles become a public
resource. "We're encouraging car
manufacturers to start thinking about
this notion of designed interiors that
facilitate really seamless sharing,"
says Danny Stillion, a partner at
Ideo, who leads the Future of
Automobility project..." [Read more](https://www.wired.com/2017/02/ideo-concept-car/)Hmmm...Maybe???
However, they won't be owned by
consumers, so why design them for
their ownership??? Alain
Estonia Allowing a Number of Self-Driving Cars on the Streets Starting Today
Press release, Mar 2, "...the testing
of self-driving cars is allowed on the
streets and roads of Estonia. There is
an additional condition that the car
must also have a driver who can take
control of the car if needed.
Kadri Simson, Minster of Economic
Affairs and Infrastructure said that
self-driving cars are an exciting
transport solution for the future
which humans and regulations should
get adapted to gradually. "One of
Estonia's keys to success over the
years has been the emergence and
implementation of innovative
solutions. Self-driving cars as means
of everyday transport need to advance,
while ensuring the safety of all road
users," added Simson. According to
Pirko Konsa, the head of the group of
experts on self-driving vehicles
created under the Government Office
last autumn, Estonia as a small and
flexible country has the opportunity
to be first in applying new solutions,
and the local entrepreneurs could
become the first to export this
know-how to international markets...."
[Read more](https://www.mkm.ee/en/news/estonia-allowing-number-self-driving-cars-streets-starting-today)Hmmm...Estonia,
welcome to the club! :-) Alain
Reader’s
Comments..
###
Some other
thoughts that deserve your
attention
New Jersey Area Rising Around Transit Hub Lacks One Thing: Its Hub
N. Corasaniti, Mar 2, "All the
ingredients for a bustling
downtown transit hub here are
coming together: new
townhouses, restaurants and
big-box stores sit just off
the busiest rail corridor in
the country, as trains whiz by
every 10 minutes or so.
Bulldozers, backhoes and
scattered mounds of dirt offer
evidence of more to come. A
large banner over a nearby
highway with an illustration
of a train declares: "Shop.
Dine. Ride. Live."
There is just one piece
missing from this rosy
picture: any evidence of a
train station.
On the longest stretch of
passenger rails in New Jersey
without a stop, the proposed
station would address a
glaring need, providing public
transit to a bustling area and
easing congestion on
chronically gridlocked
highways. An elevated rail
track that is part of the
project could funnel more
commuter trains to New York
City...." [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/02/nyregion/new-jersey-area-rising-around-transit-hub-lacks-one-thing-its-hub.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share)Hmmm...Maybe???
Even with a train stop, it
will need a 'last-mile'
distributor which would be
perfect for existing
low-speed driverless
shuttles such as [Easy Mile](http://easymile.com/), [Navya](http://navya.tech/) , [AutoKAB](http://www.autokab.com/),
[2GetThere](http://www.2getthere.eu/),
[Local Motors](https://localmotors.com/), ... Alain
###
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
Half-baked
stuff that probably
doesn't deserve your
time
Driverless cars are coming to Charlotte — but light rail transit will still play a big role
A. Dunn, Feb 28, “We first reported on this story last week. …But one key element is left out of the plan: How the transportation industry is evolving. A transportation expert told the Observer that “fixed-route transportation won’t make any sense in 10 or 15 years.” If he’s right, the three new light rail lines would be a $6 billion waste of money.
We actually had this
very conversation in the
Agenda office early last
week. Driverless cars
will one day be
ubiquitous, and sooner
than you would expect.
Uber doesn't have a $68
billion valuation for
nothing. Does a
massive, expensive light
rail plan still make
sense in that kind of
environment? ...
Yes, we'll still need
transit in a driverless
future. I see light
rail continuing to play
a vital role in moving
around Charlotte well
into the future....The
CEO of Charlotte Area
Transit System sounds
like he agrees...." [Read more](https://www.charlotteagenda.com/82459/driverless-cars-coming-charlotte-light-rail-transit-will-still-play-big-role/)Hmmm...Paul,
did you make it out
of town alive? And
they expect to do
this without Foxx @
DoT and the possible
scraping of the
FTA? Alain
Chevy is the first major car company with unlimited LTE data
S. Dent, Mar 2, “Chevrolet’s latest OnStar LTE plan would be every smartphone user’s dream, if it wasn’t confined to cars. Starting March 3rd, Chevy owners can get unlimited 4G data, including an OnStar WiFi hotspot, for $20 a month, prepaid…“Read moreHmmm…What is the over/under on how many car crashes this ‘advancement’ will cause? :-( Alain
###
C’mon Man!(These
folks didn't get/read
the memo)
Tesla Autopilot crash caught on dashcam shows how not to use the system
F. Lambert, mar 2, “Earlier this week, a Tesla Model S hit a barrier on the highway near Dallas, Texas. The driver, who fortunately wasn’t injured, first blamed Tesla’s Autopilot for the crash.
We now have footage of
the accident and
it actually shows a
situation that the
Autopilot probably
shouldn't be expected to
be able to handle, at
least not yet.
Ultimately, it serves as
a reminder not to trust
the system without
paying attention. ...
Fast forward to 3 days later. Another Redditor on the Tesla Motors subreddit found footage of the accident taken from the dashcam of a vehicle following the Tesla during the event. The footage shows that the Tesla needed to merge or change lane in order to avoid the barrier – something the Autopilot should never be left to do without the driver intervening…
What is also clear from the footage is that the design of the road here is quite awful since even the driver in the vehicle with the dashcam almost hit the barrier and there presumably wasn’t any driver assist at play in this case….” Hmmm…How is it that with all of the \(\) that are being spent to do the construction, there aren’t the funds to buy and apply paint to clearly mark lanes. C’mon DoT!!
"What potentially didn't
work is the 'Forward
Collision Warning'
feature since the driver
claims that there was no
warning. Some would
assume that
Automatic Emergency
Braking (AEB) should
have kicked in, but it's
actually not designed to
engage if there's an
alternative and in this
case, the vehicle wasn't
supposed to brake in
order to avoid the
barrier – it could have
been even more dangerous
considering a vehicle
was close behind and
there was traffic to the
right of the vehicle.
Tesla explains what the
feature does:
"AEB does not engage
when an alternative
collision avoidance
strategy (e.g., driver
steering) remains
viable. Instead, when a
collision threat is
detected, forward
collision warning alerts
the driver to encourage
them to take appropriate
evasive action."..." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2017/03/02/tesla-autopilot-crash-video-how-note-to-use/) Hmmm...Fred,
great article!
Until Tesla and the
others get the Safe-driving,
aka Automated
Collision Avoidance,
right, they can't do
any Self-driving. [C'Mon Man](https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=cmon+man+2016&&view=detail&mid=4367E158D7C9083E0BDC4367E158D7C9083E0BDC&FORM=VRDGAR)!! Alain
The Impact of Autonomous Cars on Claims
D. Johnson, Mar 2, “…“These new cars offer a lot of pluses, potential safety advantages, but the software needed to drive them is not immune to fatigue, but it’s immune from intoxication and distracted driving,” Quinley said….” Hmmm…What ??? No one has claimed that self-driving cars are immune to intoxication. Please! Don’t be confused with Driverless. “…If enhanced safety flows from having driverless cars, it’s going to impact employment staffing and career paths for adjusters,” said Quinley. “The whole insurance industry infrastructure that exists now, that’s devoted to managing and handling, and processing automobile claims I envision is going to shrink if driverless cars deliver on the promise of reduced accidents and better safety.” Read moreHmmm…Not my fault!! What a business! Disruption of this industry can’t come too soon. Alain
Calendar
of Upcoming Events:
###
Commercialization Summit
May 17 & 18, 2017
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
Save the Date
Recent
Highlights of:
#
###
###
February 24, 2017
Alphabet’s Waymo Alleges Uber Stole Self-Driving Secrets
M. Bergen, Feb 23, “It took Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo seven years to design and build a laser-scanning system to guide its self-driving cars. Uber Technologies Inc. allegedly did it in nine months.
Waymo claims in a
lawsuit filed Thursday
that was possible
because a former
employee stole the
designs and technology
and started a new
company....Anthony
Levandowski, a former
manager at Waymo, in
December 2015 downloaded
more than 14,000
proprietary and
confidential files,
including the lidar
circuit board designs,
according to the
complaint. He also
allegedly created a
domain name for his new
company and confided in
some of his Waymo
colleagues of plans to
"replicate" its
technology for a
competitor...." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/alphabet-s-waymo-sues-uber-for-stealing-self-driving-patents)
Hmmm...This is very
serious. So
unfortunate. :-(
Alain
February 17, 2017
Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2016 Estimated to be Highest in Nine Years
Press release, Feb. 15, “NSC offers insight into what drivers are doing and calls for immediate implementation of proven, life-saving measures…
With the upward trend
showing no sign of
subsiding, NSC is
calling for immediate
implementation of
life-saving measures
that would set the
nation on a [road to zero](http://www.nsc.org/learn/NSC-Initiatives/Pages/The-Road-to-Zero.aspx)
deaths:..." [Read more](http://www.nsc.org/Connect/NSCNewsReleases/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=180)Hmmm..."Automated
Collision Avoidance"
or anything having
to do with 'Safe-driving
Cars' is not
mentioned anywhere
in the Press
Release. One of us
is missing something
very fundamental
here!! So
depressing!! :-(
Alain
February 10, 2017
Regulatory Chill May Pivot Connected Vehicle Tech’s Course
M. Ross, Feb 8, “Technology and telecommunications groups opposed to a federal mandate that cars automatically communicate with each other are hoping the proposal is an early victim of President Donald Trump’s regulatory clampdown.
The Department of
Transportation rushed to
publish a draft rule in
the final days of the
Obama administration
that would mandate all
new cars and light
trucks be equipped to
transmit data to other
vehicles to warn their
drivers of potential
collisions. The
department and
automobile manufacturers
have been laying the
groundwork for such a
rule for more than a
decade, with millions
of dollars in
testing indicating that
the radio-based
technology could immediately
save lives. No,
that's its
fundamental flaw.
Even if you have it,
it can't do you any
good unless the
other guy has it.
Thus it can't do
anything immediately
...The
draft rule could save up
to 1,365 lives each year
by 2060.
Immediately??? I'll
surely be dead and
gone. All that money
spent to get such a
finding.
....The total annual
costs to comply with the
mandate 30 years after
the rule's launch range
from $2.2 billion to $5
billion, according to
2016 NHTSA data.
Consumers can expect to
pay about an extra $300
per vehicle equipped
with DSRC technology,
the data show.
That's a lot of
'good money to be
thrown after bad'.
Let's spend Billions
to justify our
Millions in sunk
costs? Much worse
than 'doubling down'
...Meanwhile,
artificial intelligence,
camera technology,
sensors and radar, which
are already being used
in autonomous vehicle
development, improve
vehicle safety and don't
require cars to be
connected to each other,
Paul Brubaker, president
and CEO of the Alliance
for Transportation
Innovation,..."
Read moreHmmm… Not ‘Regulatory Chill’ but simply Common Sense. C’mon Man! I’m on the AV side of this one. V2V is fine on top of AV, but staying on the DSRC bandwagon is silly when it will be completely obsolesced by 5G before it has sufficient penetration to be better than ‘a hope & a prayer’ in avoiding crashes. V2V requires both vehicles to have the technology. The chance that both cars can even talk to each other, let alone know what to do and do what is needed, to avoid a crash is the product of the adoption percentage of DSRC. So, a mandate today, that pertains only to having DSRC in new cars, will be lucky to be in 30% of the cars by 2025. Thus, the chance that DSRC is even relevant in an impending crash is 0.3 x 0.3 = 0.09. Meaning that there is only about a 10% (1 in 10) chance that DSRC is even relevant in averting a crash. It simply takes a long time to replace the cars that are on the road today with new ones. However, many of us replace our phones with the latest and greatest much more quickly, so that by 2025 it is not unreasonable that as many as 70% of drivers will have 5G phones. The chance that these phones will have the opportunity to be a relevant V2V device in averting a crash is 0.7 x 0.7 = 0.49 . Which road should we go down… DSRC mandate giving us at best a 1 in 10 chance of being relevant in 2025 ( and we still need AV to perform the avoidance of the crash) or wait and piggy back on our 5G device that gives us a 1 in 2 chance in 2025 at no additional cost because we will have purchased it for other reasons. Alain January 27, 2017
Serving the Nation’s Personal Mobility Needs with the Casual Sharing of autonomousTaxis & Today’s Urban Rail, Amtrak and Air Transport Systems
A. Kornhauser, Jan 14, “Orf467F16 Final Project Symposium quantifying implications of such a Nation-wide mobility system on Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO), energy, environment and congestion, including estimates of fleet size, needed empty vehicle repositioning, and ridership implications on existing rail transit systems (west, east, NYC) and Amtrak of a system that would efficiently and effectively perform their ‘1st mile’/’last-mile’ mobility needs. Read more Hmmm… Now linked are 1st Drafts of the chapters and the powerPoint summaries of these elements. Final Report should be available by early February. The major finding is, nationwide there exists sufficient casual ridesharing potential that a well–managed Nationwide Fleet of about 30M aTaxis (in conjunction with the existing air, Amtrak and Urban fixed-rail systems) could serve the vehicular mobility needs of the whole nation with VMT 40% less than today’s automobiles while providing a Level-of-Service (LoS) largely equivalent and in many ways superior than is delivered by the personal automobile today. Also interesting are the findings as to the substantial increased patronage opportunities available to Amtrak and each of the fixed rail transit systems around the country because the aTaxis solve the ‘1st and last mile’ problem. While all of this is extremely good news, the challenging news is that since all of these fixed rail systems currently lose money on each passenger served, the additional patronage would likely mean that they’ll lose even more money in the future. :-( Alain
January 20, 2017
Fiscal Year 2016 SRD Program Grant Selections
Public Announcement, Jan 22: “Pierce Transit will receive $1,664,894 to deploy buses equipped with collision avoidance warning systems or automatic braking features. The objective of this project is to deploy and demonstrate collision avoidance technology in partnership with the Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP), a collaborative organization of 25 Washington public transit agencies that combine their resources to provide and purchase insurance coverage, manage claims and litigation, and receive risk management and training. Pierce Transit will work with WSTIP to accurately determine the business case for investing in these technologies.” Read moreHmmm… Finally!! More than 3 years since Lou Sanders of APTA, Jerome Lutin and I first proposed to FTA to do such a thing for the benefit of the entire bus transit industry (which FTA deemed as non-worthy) the FTA has finally turned around and jumped on-board. The unfortunate news: we lost 3 years. The fortunate news: the process of substantially reducing bus crashes is finally underway thanks to the hard work in the interim by Jerome Lutin and Jerry Spears (formerly of WSTIP). This and the good news below from Tesla may finally enlighten the insurance industry to play a leadership role in the market adoption of SafeDrivingCars/Buses/Trucks. Congratulations Jerome & Jerry! Alain
ODI (Office of Defects Investigation) Findings on Tesla AEB & AutoPilot
###
(Above link should work) Jan 19, “… Summary: … NHTSA’s examination did not identify any defects in the design or performance of the AEB or Autopilot systems of the subject vehicles nor any incidents in which the systems did not perform as designed. AEB systems used in the automotive industry through MY 2016 are rear-end collision avoidance technologies that are not designed to reliably perform in all crash modes, including crossing path collisions. The Autopilot system is an Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) that requires the continual and full attention of the driver to monitor the traffic environment and be prepared to take action to avoid crashes. Tesla’s design included a hands-on the steering wheel system for monitoring driver engagement…
... ODI analyzed data
from crashes of Tesla
Model S and Model X
vehicles involving
airbag deployments
that occurred while
operating in, or
within 15 seconds of
transitioning from,
Autopilot mode. Some
crashes involved
impacts from other
vehicles striking the
Tesla from various
directions with little
to no warning to the
Tesla driver. Other
crashes involved
scenarios known to be
outside of the
state-of-technology
for current-generation
Level 1 or 2 systems,
such as cut-ins,
cut-outs and crossing
path collisions....
...The Florida fatal
crash appears to have
involved a period of
extended distraction
(at least 7
seconds)..." .Hmmm... nothing
else is written
about this nor
is a basis given
for the 'at
least 7
seconds'.
Possibly the
most important
information
revealed in this
summary is
Figure 11, p11:
"...
Figure 11
shows the
rates
calculated by
ODI for airbag
deployment
crashes in the
subject Tesla
vehicles
before and
after
Autosteer
installation.
The data show
that the Tesla
vehicles crash
rate dropped
by almost 40
percent after
Autosteer
installation...
...A
safety-related
defect trend
has not been
identified at
this time and
further
examination of
this issue
does not
appear to be
warranted.
Accordingly,
this investigation
is closed. "
Read more Hmmm… WOW!!! . Every word of this Finding is worth reading. It basically exonerates Tesla, states that AEBs (Automated Emergency Braking) systems don’t really work and aren’t designed to work in some scenarios (straight crossing path (SCP) and left turn across path (LTAP), see p 2,3). …which suggests, to me, that DoT/NHTSA should be placing substantial efforts on making these systems really work in more scenarios. And… there is the solid data that ‘AutoSteer” reduced Tesla crashes by almost 40%!!! WOW!! Will Insurance now finally get on-board and lead? Alai
January 13, 2017
Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx Announces New Federal Committee on Automation
News, Jan 10, “…U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “I’m proud to announce this new automation committee, and look forward to seeing its members advance life-saving innovations while boosting our economy and making our transportation network more fair, reliable, and efficient.”… Read more Hmmm… Excellent!!! Congratulations Chris, Bryant, Missy and everyone else. Alain
December 14, 2016
Google is spinning off its self-driving car program into a new company called Waymo
A. Hawkins, Dec 13, “Today, Google announced that it would be spinning off its six-year-old self-driving project into a standalone business called Waymo, which stands for “a new way forward in mobility,” according to John Krafcik, the CEO of the new company.
It was previously
reported that Google
would be dropping its
plan to build its own
vehicle without steering
wheels and pedals,
instead focusing on
creating the
self-driving technology
that can be installed in
third-party vehicles.
Krafcik didn't provide
much clarity there, but
did state definitively
that the new company was
still fully committed to
fully autonomous vehicle
technology.
"We are all in, 100
percent, on Level Four
and Level Five fully
driverless solutions,"
he said.
Krafcik didn't comment
on a report in Bloomberg
that Google would be
starting its own
ride-sharing service in
partnership with Fiat
Chrysler using the
Italian car maker's
Pacifica minivans as its
fleet of self-driving
taxis. Google and FCA
announced their
collaboration earlier
this year. Krafcik did
confirm that the
self-driving Pacificas
were still in the build
phase, but would
hopefully be on the road
for testing very soon.
It may be too soon to
say that Google is
abandoning its plans to
build it's own fleet of
driverless cars, without
steering wheels and
pedals. That said,
Krafcik made it clear
that Waymo "is not a car
company, there's been
some confusion on that
point. We're not in
business of making
better cars, we're in
the business of making
better drivers."...[Read more](http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/13/13936782/google-self-driving-car-waymo-spin-off-company)
Hmmm...
Boy that is a lot of
hedging. If they
are in the business
of making better
drivers, then all
they need to do is
to make Automated
Collision Avoidance
systems that
actually work...
avoid collisions
(aka Safe-driving
Cars). That would
make all drivers
better drivers, but
it wouldn't do
anything for
non-drivers... the
young, old, poor,
blind, those under
the influence, ...
Has Google abandoned
all of those folks
and reverted to the
'dark-side'? Alain
December 7, 2016
Why the driverless car industry is happy (so far) with Trump’s pick for Transportation secretary
R. Mitchell, Dec 6, “Silicon Valley voted heavily for Hillary Clinton, but companies working on driverless cars seem overjoyed with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Transportation secretary, Elaine Chao. Chao will wield great power over how driverless cars and other automated vehicles will be regulated — or not….Industry insiders say they don’t want Chao to ignore driverless car policy….
Instead, they hope to
avoid a patchwork of
differing and
conflicting rules across
the 50 states. "This
should be centralized,"
said Alain L.
Kornhauser, director of
the transportation
program at Princeton
University and an
autonomous vehicle
expert, "but that
doesn't mean the states
don't play a part. It
would be better if we
had a common
understanding...." [Read more](http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-chao-trump-driverless-20161205-story.html)Hmmm...
Yup! Alain
October 27, 2016
Ontario Must Prepare for Vehicle Automation
B. Grush, Oct. 2016, “Two contradictory stories about our transportation infrastructure are currently in circulation. One is that Ontario’s aging, inadequate and congested infrastructure is perennially unable to catch up with a growing and sprawling GTHA. The other is that vehicle automation will soon dramatically multiply current road capacity by enabling narrower lanes, shorter headways and coordinated streams of connected vehicles to pass through intersections without traffic signals to impede flow.
Since the premature
forecast of peak car in
2008 and now the hype
surrounding the
automated vehicle, we
are often told that we
have enough road
capacity; that shared
robotic taxis will
optimize our trips,
reduce congestion, and
largely eliminate the
need for parking. This
advice implies we need
wait only a few short
years to experience
relief from our current
infrastructure problems
given by decades of
under-investment in
transportation
infrastructure.
This is wishful thinking. Vehicle automation will give rise to two different emerging markets: semi-automated vehicles for household consumption and fully automated vehicles for public service such as robo-taxi and robo-transit. These two vehicle types will develop in parallel to serve different social markets. They will compete for both riders and infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to look at why and how government agencies and public interest groups can and should influence the preferred types and deployment of automated vehicles and the implication of related factors for planning…” Read moreHmmm…Bravo! The Key Findings & Recommendations are excellent. This is an excellent report (but it largely misses goods movement.) Especially 5.1 (read ‘semi-autonomous’ as ‘Self-driving’ and ‘full-automation’ as ‘Driverless’. My view: Driverless may well be at the heals of Self-driving because it is a business play rather than a consumer play. Driverless will be ordered by the hundreds or thousands rather than individually.) and, of course Ch 10: Ownership (the business model) is more important than technology. Alain
September 23, 2016
Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety
September 2016, “Executive Summary…For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. (p5)
…The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)
…The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)
…The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6) Hmmm…Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY. We all have recognized safety as a necessary condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful. (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition. Alain
“…we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (…defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm…Perfect! Alain
“…1. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p6)…“ Hmmm… 15 Points, more later. Alain
“…2. Model State Policy (p7) The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities…but… The shared objective is to ensure the establishment of a consistent national framework rather than a patchwork of incompatible laws…” Hmmm… Well done. Alain
“…3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) … This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to…” Hmmm… Excellent. Alain
“…4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)…The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)…“ Hmmm… Yes. Alain
“…Note on “Levels of Automation” There are multiple definitions for various levels of automation and for some time there has been need for standardization to aid clarity and consistency. Therefore, this Policy adopts the SAE International (SAE) definitions for levels of automation. ) Hmmm… I’m not sure this adds clarity because it does not deal directly with the difference between self-driving and driverless. While it might be implied in level 4 and level 5 that these vehicles can proceed with no one in the vehicle, it is not stated explicitly. That is unfortunate, because driverless freight delivery can’t be done without “driverless”; neither can mobility-on-demand be offered to the young, old, blind, inebriated, …without “driverless”. Vehicles can’t be “repositioned-empty” (which (I don’t mean to offend anyone) is the real value of a taxi driver today). So autonomousTaxis are impossible.
Also, these levels
do not address
Automated Emergency
Braking (AEB)
Systems and
Automated Lane
Keeping Systems
which are the very
first systems whose
on-all-the-time
performance must be
perfected. These
are the Safety
Foundation of HAV
(Highly Automated
vehicles). I
understand that the
guidelines may
assume that these
systems are already
perfect and that "[20 manufacturer have committed"](http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-iihs-commitment-on-aeb-03172016) to
have AEB on all new
cars, but to date
these systems really
don't work. In 12
mph [IIHS test,](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/front-crash-prevention-tests) [few stop](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/iihs-issues-first-crash-avoidance-ratings-under-new-test-program-7-midsize-vehicles-earn-top-marks-for-front-crash-prevention) before [hitting the target](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/front-crash-prevention-tests),
and, as we
may have seen
with the Florida
[Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar)
crash, the Level
2/3 AutoPilot
may not have
failed, but,
instead, it was
the "Phantom
Level 1" AEB
that is supposed
to be on all the
time.
This is not
acceptable. These
AEB systems MUST get
infinitely better
now. It is a shame
that AEBs were were
not explicitly
addressed in this
document.
“…I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7) However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems
are subject to NHTSA's
defects, recall and
enforcement authority.
(footnote 8) .
and the "[15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/technology/the-15-point-federal-checklist-for-self-driving-cars.html?_r=0)"
p17)
In sum this is a very good document and displays just how far DoT policy has come from promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized control, “connected”, focus to creating an environment focused on individual vehicles that responsibly take care of themselves. Kudos to Secretary Foxx for this 180 degree policy turn focused on safety. Once done correctly, the HAV will yield the early safety benefits that will stimulate continued improvements that, in turn, will yield the great mobility, environmental and quality-of-life benefits afforded by driverless mobility.
What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit. NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines. FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight. Alain
August 1, 2016
Mobileye Ends Partnership With Tesla
July 11, 2016
Lessons From the Tesla Crash
July 5, 2016
7 Crash
Hmmm…What we know now (and don’t know):
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Chenyi Chen PhD Dissertation , “…the key part of the thesis, a direct perception approach is proposed to drive a car in a highway environment. In this approach, an input image is mapped to a small number of key perception indicators that directly relate to the affordance of a road/traffic state for driving…..” Read more Hmmm..FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall, Establishing a foundation for image-based autonomous driving using DeepLearning Neural Networks trained in virtual environments. Very promising. Alain
March 25, 2016
Hearing focus of SF 2569 Autonomous vehicles task force establishment and demonstration project for people with disabilities
March 23 Hmmm… Watch the video of the Committee Meeting. The testimony is Excellent and very compelling! Also see Self-Driving Minnesota Alain
March 17, 2016
U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
December 19,
2015
Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars
Video similar to part of
Adam's Luncheon talk @
2015 Florida Automated
Vehicle Symposium on Dec
1. [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4) especially
at the 13:12 mark.
Compelling; especially
after the 60 Minutes
segment above! Also
see his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
Alain
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