2017-03-10
6th edition of the 5th year of SmartDrivingCars
Public fleets of automated vehicles and how to manage them
B. Grush & J. Niles, "...There
are two common scenarios for the
future of automobility as
vehicles become increasingly
automated. The first is that most
North American households will
retain at least one personal
automated vehicle (PAV), as now.
The alternative view is that
almost no-one will bother to own a
personal vehicle because it will be so
cheap, easy and convenient to obtain a
ride in a shared autonomous vehicle
(SAV) such as a publicly
accessible, robo-taxi or
robo-shuttle. While the latter
scenario occurs to many
urban-transportation thought-leaders
as the more desirable of the two,
this is neither guaranteed to
occur, nor has it been determined
how such an outcome might be governed
in order to achieve a high level of
optimization with respect to
time, energy and fleet size. [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/M.SargentAtHeritageFoundationInfrastructure030117.pdf)Hmmm...A
must read mostly because it raises
more questions than it answers. I
agree with much and disagree with
just as much. It is simply not
clear how the whole process will
shake out, but the thought that
there will be one well
organized/optimized system is not
likely just as today there is
really no regional planning or
real coordination among the [565 essentially independent municipalities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_municipalities_in_New_Jersey) in New
Jersey. Most might agree that if
we all planned together and worked
together New Jersey as a state
would be a better place. Yet,
those 565 cats refuse to be
herded. Alain
Automated Driving News
M. Sena, Mar 11, “…IMAGINE A FEW DECADES into the future. You are being chauffeured in a driverless car to a doctor’s appointment. You handed in your driver’s license a few years ago. The car enters a work zone where an accident has occurred. Cars are being directed into and through a shopping center parking lot. Before the car gets through the detour, the driving software experiences an overload and starts to shut down. What happens next?…” Read moreHmmm…Much interesting reading. Alain
The self-driving car’s family tree
D. Baker, Mar 4, "...Here's a partial
family tree of the self-driving
industry, showing how some of the key
players have moved from one company or
school to another. Give it a year, and
the tree may well grow a few more
branches...[Read more](http://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/The-self-driving-car-s-family-tree-10975957.php)Hmmm...Interesting,
but there are many more key
players. Alain
Local Motors CEO On 3D-Printing Self-Driving Buses And Other Projects
P. High, Feb 21, "Jay Rogers is the
founder and CEO of Local Motors,
a company focused on low-volume
manufacturing of open source motor
vehicles designed using
micro-factories. Local Motors produces
its own vehicles, including the
Strati, the world's first 3-D printed
electric car, and the Olli, an
autonomous, electric powered bus...." [Read more](https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterhigh/2017/02/21/local-motors-ceo-on-3-d-printing-self-driving-buses-and-other-projects/#151b9899321a)Hmmm...Very
interesting. Alain
How to Spend a Trillion Dollars on Infrastructure
R. Utt, Mar 9, “…Since the classic definition of socialism is the public ownership of the means of production, what many contend is an infrastructure crisis is more than likely a crisis of socialism, a policy choice that the many millions of people in the former Soviet bloc can warn us about. As will be discussed later, President Trump’s insistence that the trillion dollars he proposes to spend on infrastructure be in close cooperation with the private sector suggests that he intends to move the nation’s transportation and water infrastructure policies away from the socialist model. So perhaps we will soon be moving from deterioration and shortages to greater abundance and higher quality in the affected sectors… Read moreHmmm…Very interesting and intelligent speculation. Alain
Tesla increases Autopilot 2.0 speed limits with latest update
F. Lambert, Mar 8 “Tesla started pushing a new update to its fleet of vehicles equipped with the second generation Autopilot hardware suite tonight. The update increases the speed limits on the Autopilot’s two main features, but it’s still not to parity with the company’s first generation Autopilot.
Both Traffic Aware Cruise Control
(TACC) and Autosteer are seeing
slight 5 mph bumps in speed limit
restriction with this new update
(8.0.2.17.9.3):
TACC speed limit is being increased
from 80 to 85 mph (135 km/h)
Autosteer speed limit on highways is
being increased from 50 to 55 mph
(90 km/h)..." [Read more](http://www.forconstructionpros.com/article/12292235/the-road-to-the-future)Hmmm...Very
nice! And that's fast enough
for TACC. Go faster and you're
on your own! (although we
shouldn't let you kill us
because we are out there, too.)
Alain
Ride-sharing Apps: Low Fares Can’t Last
M. Keller, Mar 6, “It’s no secret that Uber, Lyft and other ride-sharing apps offer fares less than taxis; exactly how much less depends on metro area, time of day, and ride length. Lower fares, the ease of using the app to summon a car, and cashless payments have built a large user base for the dominant players, Uber and Lyft. But with both companies losing hundreds of millions of dollars a quarter, how soon will investors demand a path to profitability? (TechCrunch.com reports that sources suggest Uber lost three billion dollars last year!) …
But without investor subsidies, and drivers willing to make less than minimum wage, fares can only rise to those comparable with taxi companies, if not even higher….” Read moreHmmm…Unless they get to Driverless (Self-driving doesn’t help. It, in fact, hurts), which isn’t going to happen for these guys in enough places, in enough volume, soon enough. Sorry, they may have been too early. Alain
AImotive aims to convert regular cars into driverless ones inexpensively
O. Solon, Mar 5, "The AImotive office
is in a small converted house at the
end of a quiet residential street in
sunny Mountain View, spitting distance
from Google's headquarters. Outside is
a branded Toyota Prius covered in
cameras, one of three autonomous cars
the Hungarian company is testing in
the sleepy neighborhood. AImotive is
trying to do the same using regular
cameras combined with artificial
intelligence. ..."The whole traffic
system is based on the visual system,"
explained founder and CEO Laszlo
Kishonti. "Drivers don't have bat ears
and sonars, you just look around and
drive."...[Read more](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/mar/05/aimotive-driverless-cars-artificial-intelligence-cameras)Hmmm...Simple!
I like simple. Alain
Will Autonomous Cars Be at Fault in Wrecks?
D. Sabin, Mar 6, "...But car companies
are still working out what is going to
happen when autonomous cars are on the
road, from what data the cars record
to whether the company is responsible
for accidents. Strategies vary from
waiting for national legislation to
just declaring to take responsibility,
but no one has figured out exactly how
this is going to work. And as
autonomous cars start driving into
everyday life, there is a lot on the
line for customers and companies
alike...."Anecdotally, a lot of the
accidents happening now are people who
were distracted," Barry says. "So all
of these negative driver behaviors are
going to fall by the wayside." He
expects that companies that make
self-driving cars will ultimately be
responsible for crashes. "It's an
issue that auto-insurers are looking
at and it's going to be a product
liability claim on the part of auto
self-driving manufacturers,..." [Read more](https://www.inverse.com/article/28642-self-driving-car-accident-reporting)Hmmm...There
will be so many fewer 'wrecks',
most of which will be the fault of
conventionally insured texting
drivers. It will also be more
difficult for insurers to run away
from manufacturers because they'll
have the data (as they've had with
anti-lock brakes and electronic
stability control).
Manufacturers will realize that it
is best for them to assume the
little that they risk and pocket
the difference. :-) Alain
Renault, UTC and CNRS join forces to create SIVALab, a shared research facility for autonomous vehicles
Press release, Mar 3, "...This
scientific and technological
partnership is founded on the
relationship of trust that has been
growing for more than 10 years between
the research units of Renault and
Heudiasyc. SIVALab (a French acronym
for Integrated Systems for Autonomous
Vehicles Lab) is being created to
provide a structure geared to
long-term scientific developments and
major programmes. The shared
laboratory, whose governance and
resources are being provided jointly
by Renault and Heudiasyc, will deploy
a four-year research programme on
perception and localization systems
supplying honest, reliable navigation
data for communicating autonomous
vehicles. [Read more](http://blog.alliance-renault-nissan.com/node/3533)Hmmm...Excellent!
Alain
Some other
thoughts that deserve your
attention
###
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
Half-baked
stuff that probably
doesn't deserve your
time
Self-Driving Cars Can’t Cure Traffic, but Economics Can
C. Dougherty, Mar 8, “It’s easy to get giddy about self-driving cars. Older people and preteens will become more independent and mobile. The scourge of drunken driving will disappear. People will be able to safely play video games while on the freeway to work….”Hmmm…Please!!! Self-driving cars REQUIRE the driver to remain alert!. Please do NOT ever suggest that they will address the adult beverage issue! Yes, Self-driving will reduce the disutility of personal mobility and won’t change its 1-to-1 relationship with vehicle mobility . Thus VMT will increase substantially and so will congestion unless we artificially reduce the dis-utility through pricing. That’s been known forever (or since Wm. Vickrey was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1966). The real opportunity is Driverless because it breaks the 1-to-1 relationship between PMT (Personal …) and VMT (Vehicle …), especially when one needs it most, during peak times in peak directions. through active vehicle management one will be able to enable travelers to readily share vehicles thus allowing us to travel more, yet congest less. (and since it is driverless, it would allow those who so desire the opportunity to partake in moderation adult beverages.) This idea of congestion pricing is not completely dismissed the way it once was,” said Clifford Winston, an economist at the Brookings Institution. Read moreHmmm…Cliff, true, but encouraging ride-sharing when it is available may be an even better way. Alain
Americans Feel Unsafe Sharing the Road with Fully Self-Driving Cars
E. Stepp, Mar 7, “ A new report from AAA reveals that the majority of U.S. drivers seek autonomous technologies in their next vehicle, but they continue to fear the fully self-driving car. Despite the prospect that autonomous vehicles will be safer, more efficient and more convenient than their human-driven counterparts, three-quarters of U.S. drivers report feeling afraid to ride in a self-driving car, and only 10 percent report that they’d actually feel safer sharing the roads with driverless vehicles. ..” Read moreHmmm…These must be the same people that were surveyed prior to November 7. Have any of them ever seen a ‘fully self-driving’ vehicle, whatever that is. I’m sure these folks also fear aliens. Whatever!! Alain
###
C’mon Man!(These
folks didn't get/read
the memo)
The Road to the Future
J. Stoikes, Mar 6, “New research suggests that children born today will never drive a car. The auto industry’s embrace of self-driving technology has been accelerating fast and those technological advances mean that by the time today’s toddlers come of age, they’ll likely never even have to get behind the wheel of a car…
What that means is that
we are going to have to
figure out how to begin
developing a smarter
highway.
So far, the
infrastructure behind
these autonomous
vehicles is lacking,
having been built into
just a few miles of
highway in a handful of
states..." [Read more](http://www.forconstructionpros.com/article/12292235/the-road-to-the-future)Hmmm...Sorry...
This is all about
Smart Vehicles. The
Road to the Future
is simply fewer
potholes,
distinctive lane
marking and easily
readable signs with
what we have now.
Just maintain well,
what we have now.
We don't need new
fancy-schmansy. [C'mon Construction](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtWZCq8A4T4)!
Alain
Civil engineers say fixing infrastructure will take $4.6 trillion
T. Frank, Mar 9, “President Trump’s pledge to unleash $1 trillion in infrastructure spending is generating a flurry of lobbying from an alphabet-soup list of trade groups whose members are jockeying to reap potentially huge benefits.
In the latest and most
sweeping publicity
effort, the nation's
association of civil
engineers said Thursday
that the nation's roads,
dams, airports and water
and electrical systems
need $4.6 trillion of
work -- more than the
entire federal
government spends in a
year... The overall
infrastructure grade was
a D+....Among the
discrepancies CNN found:
--The engineers society
says roads and bridges
need $2 trillion in
improvements. The
Federal Highway
Administration says they
need $836 billion....[Read more](http://www.click2houston.com/money/civil-engineers-say-fixing-infrastructure-will-take-46-trillion)Hmmm...[C'mon ASCE](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiG5M_woszSAhWCwiYKHTv1C5gQtwIINDAG&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D5E59s3sfJ5o&usg=AFQjCNGEA0k97PsByP0Kyr6EW6z5FSfjmQ&bvm=bv.149093890,d.eWE) don't be
so self-serving. It
is embarrassing.
Alain
Calendar
of Upcoming Events:
###
Commercialization Summit
May 16 & 17, 2017
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
Save the Date
Recent
Highlights of:
#
###
###
March 3, 2017
Buffett has an interesting theory about why self-driving cars will hurt the insurance industry
E. Gurdus, Feb 27, “The self-driving car business could become a major threat to insurance companies when the technology hits the market, billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.
If autonomous vehicles
prove to be safer than
regular cars, insurance
costs will plummet, and
by the time roads are
filled with self-driving
cars insurers like Geico
will have taken a
serious hit, Buffett
said...
“If I had to take the over and under [bet] ten years from now on whether 10 percent of the cars on the road would be self-driving, I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong,” he said….” Read moreHmmm…Really shouldn’t go against Buffet; however, he’s going to be smiling all the way to the bank. I just don’t see how the premise implies Geico takes a serious hit. I tell everyone that I don’t understand insurance. I guess I just don’t understand insurance. :-(
I suspect that by cars he means cars + light trucks for which there are about 250M currently registered in the US with 38% being greater than 10 years old. Assuming these basic numbers remain roughly constant: of the 155M vehicles sold in the next 10 years, 25M or 16% would need to be ‘Self-driving’. Since we are starting from a zero base with zero production, we are going to need to be upwards of a 30% adoption rate in the 10th year in order to have populated 16% of the fleet through that year. So, I agree with Warren wrt ‘Self-driving’”: “I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong” Wrt ‘Safe-driving, I would take the over, because the early numbers are attainable, especially if Insurance comes on board. Wrt ‘Diverless’: No way unless they are manufactured by a non-traditional entity that is totally disruptive in years 8, 9 and 10. Alain
February 24, 2017
Alphabet’s Waymo Alleges Uber Stole Self-Driving Secrets
M. Bergen, Feb 23, “It took Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo seven years to design and build a laser-scanning system to guide its self-driving cars. Uber Technologies Inc. allegedly did it in nine months.
Waymo claims in a
lawsuit filed Thursday
that was possible
because a former
employee stole the
designs and technology
and started a new
company....Anthony
Levandowski, a former
manager at Waymo, in
December 2015 downloaded
more than 14,000
proprietary and
confidential files,
including the lidar
circuit board designs,
according to the
complaint. He also
allegedly created a
domain name for his new
company and confided in
some of his Waymo
colleagues of plans to
"replicate" its
technology for a
competitor...." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/alphabet-s-waymo-sues-uber-for-stealing-self-driving-patents)
Hmmm...This is very
serious. So
unfortunate. :-(
Alain
February 17, 2017
Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2016 Estimated to be Highest in Nine Years
Press release, Feb. 15, “NSC offers insight into what drivers are doing and calls for immediate implementation of proven, life-saving measures…
With the upward trend
showing no sign of
subsiding, NSC is
calling for immediate
implementation of
life-saving measures
that would set the
nation on a [road to zero](http://www.nsc.org/learn/NSC-Initiatives/Pages/The-Road-to-Zero.aspx)
deaths:..." [Read more](http://www.nsc.org/Connect/NSCNewsReleases/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=180)Hmmm..."Automated
Collision Avoidance"
or anything having
to do with 'Safe-driving
Cars' is not
mentioned anywhere
in the Press
Release. One of us
is missing something
very fundamental
here!! So
depressing!! :-(
Alain
January 27, 2017
Serving the Nation’s Personal Mobility Needs with the Casual Sharing of autonomousTaxis & Today’s Urban Rail, Amtrak and Air Transport Systems
A. Kornhauser, Jan 14, “Orf467F16 Final Project Symposium quantifying implications of such a Nation-wide mobility system on Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO), energy, environment and congestion, including estimates of fleet size, needed empty vehicle repositioning, and ridership implications on existing rail transit systems (west, east, NYC) and Amtrak of a system that would efficiently and effectively perform their ‘1st mile’/’last-mile’ mobility needs. Read more Hmmm… Now linked are 1st Drafts of the chapters and the powerPoint summaries of these elements. Final Report should be available by early February. The major finding is, nationwide there exists sufficient casual ridesharing potential that a well–managed Nationwide Fleet of about 30M aTaxis (in conjunction with the existing air, Amtrak and Urban fixed-rail systems) could serve the vehicular mobility needs of the whole nation with VMT 40% less than today’s automobiles while providing a Level-of-Service (LoS) largely equivalent and in many ways superior than is delivered by the personal automobile today. Also interesting are the findings as to the substantial increased patronage opportunities available to Amtrak and each of the fixed rail transit systems around the country because the aTaxis solve the ‘1st and last mile’ problem. While all of this is extremely good news, the challenging news is that since all of these fixed rail systems currently lose money on each passenger served, the additional patronage would likely mean that they’ll lose even more money in the future. :-( Alain
January 20, 2017
Fiscal Year 2016 SRD Program Grant Selections
Public Announcement, Jan 22: “Pierce Transit will receive $1,664,894 to deploy buses equipped with collision avoidance warning systems or automatic braking features. The objective of this project is to deploy and demonstrate collision avoidance technology in partnership with the Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP), a collaborative organization of 25 Washington public transit agencies that combine their resources to provide and purchase insurance coverage, manage claims and litigation, and receive risk management and training. Pierce Transit will work with WSTIP to accurately determine the business case for investing in these technologies.” Read moreHmmm… Finally!! More than 3 years since Lou Sanders of APTA, Jerome Lutin and I first proposed to FTA to do such a thing for the benefit of the entire bus transit industry (which FTA deemed as non-worthy) the FTA has finally turned around and jumped on-board. The unfortunate news: we lost 3 years. The fortunate news: the process of substantially reducing bus crashes is finally underway thanks to the hard work in the interim by Jerome Lutin and Jerry Spears (formerly of WSTIP). This and the good news below from Tesla may finally enlighten the insurance industry to play a leadership role in the market adoption of SafeDrivingCars/Buses/Trucks. Congratulations Jerome & Jerry! Alain
ODI (Office of Defects Investigation) Findings on Tesla AEB & AutoPilot
###
(Above link should work) Jan 19, “… Summary: … NHTSA’s examination did not identify any defects in the design or performance of the AEB or Autopilot systems of the subject vehicles nor any incidents in which the systems did not perform as designed. AEB systems used in the automotive industry through MY 2016 are rear-end collision avoidance technologies that are not designed to reliably perform in all crash modes, including crossing path collisions. The Autopilot system is an Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) that requires the continual and full attention of the driver to monitor the traffic environment and be prepared to take action to avoid crashes. Tesla’s design included a hands-on the steering wheel system for monitoring driver engagement…
... ODI analyzed data
from crashes of Tesla
Model S and Model X
vehicles involving
airbag deployments
that occurred while
operating in, or
within 15 seconds of
transitioning from,
Autopilot mode. Some
crashes involved
impacts from other
vehicles striking the
Tesla from various
directions with little
to no warning to the
Tesla driver. Other
crashes involved
scenarios known to be
outside of the
state-of-technology
for current-generation
Level 1 or 2 systems,
such as cut-ins,
cut-outs and crossing
path collisions....
...The Florida fatal
crash appears to have
involved a period of
extended distraction
(at least 7
seconds)..." .Hmmm... nothing
else is written
about this nor
is a basis given
for the 'at
least 7
seconds'.
Possibly the
most important
information
revealed in this
summary is
Figure 11, p11:
"...
Figure 11
shows the
rates
calculated by
ODI for airbag
deployment
crashes in the
subject Tesla
vehicles
before and
after
Autosteer
installation.
The data show
that the Tesla
vehicles crash
rate dropped
by almost 40
percent after
Autosteer
installation...
...A
safety-related
defect trend
has not been
identified at
this time and
further
examination of
this issue
does not
appear to be
warranted.
Accordingly,
this investigation
is closed. "
Read more Hmmm… WOW!!! . Every word of this Finding is worth reading. It basically exonerates Tesla, states that AEBs (Automated Emergency Braking) systems don’t really work and aren’t designed to work in some scenarios (straight crossing path (SCP) and left turn across path (LTAP), see p 2,3). …which suggests, to me, that DoT/NHTSA should be placing substantial efforts on making these systems really work in more scenarios. And… there is the solid data that ‘AutoSteer” reduced Tesla crashes by almost 40%!!! WOW!! Will Insurance now finally get on-board and lead? Alain
January 13, 2017
Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx Announces New Federal Committee on Automation
News, Jan 10, “…U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “I’m proud to announce this new automation committee, and look forward to seeing its members advance life-saving innovations while boosting our economy and making our transportation network more fair, reliable, and efficient.”… Read more Hmmm… Excellent!!! Congratulations Chris, Bryant, Missy and everyone else. Alain
December 14, 2016
Google is spinning off its self-driving car program into a new company called Waymo
A. Hawkins, Dec 13, “Today, Google announced that it would be spinning off its six-year-old self-driving project into a standalone business called Waymo, which stands for “a new way forward in mobility,” according to John Krafcik, the CEO of the new company.
It was previously
reported that Google
would be dropping its
plan to build its own
vehicle without steering
wheels and pedals,
instead focusing on
creating the
self-driving technology
that can be installed in
third-party vehicles.
Krafcik didn't provide
much clarity there, but
did state definitively
that the new company was
still fully committed to
fully autonomous vehicle
technology.
"We are all in, 100
percent, on Level Four
and Level Five fully
driverless solutions,"
he said.
Krafcik didn't comment
on a report in Bloomberg
that Google would be
starting its own
ride-sharing service in
partnership with Fiat
Chrysler using the
Italian car maker's
Pacifica minivans as its
fleet of self-driving
taxis. Google and FCA
announced their
collaboration earlier
this year. Krafcik did
confirm that the
self-driving Pacificas
were still in the build
phase, but would
hopefully be on the road
for testing very soon.
It may be too soon to
say that Google is
abandoning its plans to
build it's own fleet of
driverless cars, without
steering wheels and
pedals. That said,
Krafcik made it clear
that Waymo "is not a car
company, there's been
some confusion on that
point. We're not in
business of making
better cars, we're in
the business of making
better drivers."...[Read more](http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/13/13936782/google-self-driving-car-waymo-spin-off-company)
Hmmm...
Boy that is a lot of
hedging. If they
are in the business
of making better
drivers, then all
they need to do is
to make Automated
Collision Avoidance
systems that
actually work...
avoid collisions
(aka Safe-driving
Cars). That would
make all drivers
better drivers, but
it wouldn't do
anything for
non-drivers... the
young, old, poor,
blind, those under
the influence, ...
Has Google abandoned
all of those folks
and reverted to the
'dark-side'? Alain
December 7, 2016
Why the driverless car industry is happy (so far) with Trump’s pick for Transportation secretary
R. Mitchell, Dec 6, “Silicon Valley voted heavily for Hillary Clinton, but companies working on driverless cars seem overjoyed with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Transportation secretary, Elaine Chao. Chao will wield great power over how driverless cars and other automated vehicles will be regulated — or not….Industry insiders say they don’t want Chao to ignore driverless car policy….
Instead, they hope to
avoid a patchwork of
differing and
conflicting rules across
the 50 states. "This
should be centralized,"
said Alain L.
Kornhauser, director of
the transportation
program at Princeton
University and an
autonomous vehicle
expert, "but that
doesn't mean the states
don't play a part. It
would be better if we
had a common
understanding...." [Read more](http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-chao-trump-driverless-20161205-story.html)Hmmm...
Yup! Alain
October 27, 2016
Ontario Must Prepare for Vehicle Automation
B. Grush, Oct. 2016, “Two contradictory stories about our transportation infrastructure are currently in circulation. One is that Ontario’s aging, inadequate and congested infrastructure is perennially unable to catch up with a growing and sprawling GTHA. The other is that vehicle automation will soon dramatically multiply current road capacity by enabling narrower lanes, shorter headways and coordinated streams of connected vehicles to pass through intersections without traffic signals to impede flow.
Since the premature
forecast of peak car in
2008 and now the hype
surrounding the
automated vehicle, we
are often told that we
have enough road
capacity; that shared
robotic taxis will
optimize our trips,
reduce congestion, and
largely eliminate the
need for parking. This
advice implies we need
wait only a few short
years to experience
relief from our current
infrastructure problems
given by decades of
under-investment in
transportation
infrastructure.
This is wishful thinking. Vehicle automation will give rise to two different emerging markets: semi-automated vehicles for household consumption and fully automated vehicles for public service such as robo-taxi and robo-transit. These two vehicle types will develop in parallel to serve different social markets. They will compete for both riders and infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to look at why and how government agencies and public interest groups can and should influence the preferred types and deployment of automated vehicles and the implication of related factors for planning…” Read moreHmmm…Bravo! The Key Findings & Recommendations are excellent. This is an excellent report (but it largely misses goods movement.) Especially 5.1 (read ‘semi-autonomous’ as ‘Self-driving’ and ‘full-automation’ as ‘Driverless’. My view: Driverless may well be at the heals of Self-driving because it is a business play rather than a consumer play. Driverless will be ordered by the hundreds or thousands rather than individually.) and, of course Ch 10: Ownership (the business model) is more important than technology. Alain
September 23, 2016
Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety
September 2016, “Executive Summary…For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. (p5)
…The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)
…The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)
…The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6) Hmmm…Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY. We all have recognized safety as a necessary condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful. (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition. Alain
“…we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (…defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm…Perfect! Alain
“…1. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p6)…“ Hmmm… 15 Points, more later. Alain
“…2. Model State Policy (p7) The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities…but… The shared objective is to ensure the establishment of a consistent national framework rather than a patchwork of incompatible laws…” Hmmm… Well done. Alain
“…3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) … This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to…” Hmmm… Excellent. Alain
“…4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)…The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)…“ Hmmm… Yes. Alain
“…Note on “Levels of Automation” There are multiple definitions for various levels of automation and for some time there has been need for standardization to aid clarity and consistency. Therefore, this Policy adopts the SAE International (SAE) definitions for levels of automation. ) Hmmm… I’m not sure this adds clarity because it does not deal directly with the difference between self-driving and driverless. While it might be implied in level 4 and level 5 that these vehicles can proceed with no one in the vehicle, it is not stated explicitly. That is unfortunate, because driverless freight delivery can’t be done without “driverless”; neither can mobility-on-demand be offered to the young, old, blind, inebriated, …without “driverless”. Vehicles can’t be “repositioned-empty” (which (I don’t mean to offend anyone) is the real value of a taxi driver today). So autonomousTaxis are impossible.
Also, these levels
do not address
Automated Emergency
Braking (AEB)
Systems and
Automated Lane
Keeping Systems
which are the very
first systems whose
on-all-the-time
performance must be
perfected. These
are the Safety
Foundation of HAV
(Highly Automated
vehicles). I
understand that the
guidelines may
assume that these
systems are already
perfect and that "[20 manufacturer have committed"](http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-iihs-commitment-on-aeb-03172016) to
have AEB on all new
cars, but to date
these systems really
don't work. In 12
mph [IIHS test,](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/front-crash-prevention-tests) [few stop](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/iihs-issues-first-crash-avoidance-ratings-under-new-test-program-7-midsize-vehicles-earn-top-marks-for-front-crash-prevention) before [hitting the target](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/front-crash-prevention-tests),
and, as we
may have seen
with the Florida
[Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar)
crash, the Level
2/3 AutoPilot
may not have
failed, but,
instead, it was
the "Phantom
Level 1" AEB
that is supposed
to be on all the
time.
This is not
acceptable. These
AEB systems MUST get
infinitely better
now. It is a shame
that AEBs were were
not explicitly
addressed in this
document.
“…I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7) However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems
are subject to NHTSA's
defects, recall and
enforcement authority.
(footnote 8) .
and the "[15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/technology/the-15-point-federal-checklist-for-self-driving-cars.html?_r=0)"
p17)
In sum this is a very good document and displays just how far DoT policy has come from promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized control, “connected”, focus to creating an environment focused on individual vehicles that responsibly take care of themselves. Kudos to Secretary Foxx for this 180 degree policy turn focused on safety. Once done correctly, the HAV will yield the early safety benefits that will stimulate continued improvements that, in turn, will yield the great mobility, environmental and quality-of-life benefits afforded by driverless mobility.
What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit. NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines. FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight. Alain
July 11, 2016
Lessons From the Tesla Crash
July 5, 2016
7 Crash
Hmmm…What we know now (and don’t know):
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Chenyi Chen PhD Dissertation , “…the key part of the thesis, a direct perception approach is proposed to drive a car in a highway environment. In this approach, an input image is mapped to a small number of key perception indicators that directly relate to the affordance of a road/traffic state for driving…..” Read more Hmmm..FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall, Establishing a foundation for image-based autonomous driving using DeepLearning Neural Networks trained in virtual environments. Very promising. Alain
March 17, 2016
U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
December 19,
2015
Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars
Video similar to part of
Adam's Luncheon talk @
2015 Florida Automated
Vehicle Symposium on Dec
1. [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4) especially
at the 13:12 mark.
Compelling; especially
after the 60 Minutes
segment above! Also
see his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
Alain
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