2017-03-21
7th
edition of the 5th year of
SmartDrivingCars
March 20, 2017
###
Announcing: SmartDrivingCars
Deployment Summit; May 18,
19 Princeton University,
Princeton, NJ
Save the Date: “Princeton University will be hosting on May 18 & 19 a two day conference bringing together the buyers, sellers and facilitators of SmartDrivingCars (& Trucks, & Buses) with the purpose of getting off the ground and accelerating the commercialization/deployment of this technology so that society can emerge from the hype and begin to capture the benefits of this emerging mobility revolution.
The focus ranges from:
-
near-term safety benefits of Safe-driving
Cars (How insurance and new car dealers can benefit by promoting the RoI advantages to fleets and mutually beneficial promotional discounts to consumers.), as well as an update as to the performance in automatically avoiding crashes of the technology options available in showrooms today . -
near-term mobility and community service benefits of the array of emerging low-speed Driverless shuttles to all in gated communities and campuses, to the mobility disadvantaged in many/most suburban communities and to address first-mile, last-mile accessibility challenges in transit-oriented communities, and
-
near-term regulatory challenges that are needed to facilitate the shared use of our existing streets by low and normal speed Driverless vehicles, and
-
the current state-of-the-art in DeepDriving, to the long-term opportunities of using affordable Computer Vision and elegant Deep Learning training, testing and enhancing techniques in SmartDrivingCars, and more.
Details in the next issue of SmartDrivingCars. Alain Save the date
Uber’s autonomous cars drove 20,354 miles and had to be taken over at every mile, according to documents
J. Bhuiyan, Mar 16, "Some of Uber's
self-driving cars aren't driving as
smoothly as the company hoped they
would. Documents circulated
throughout the company's
self-driving group, which Recode
obtained, gives us a first look at
the progress of the ride-hail
company's robot cars in
Pennsylvania, Arizona and
California.
The top line: Uber's robot cars are
steadily increasing the number of
miles driven autonomously. But the
figures on rider experience —
defined as a combination of how many
times drivers have to take over and
how smoothly the car drives — are
still showing little progress....
For example: During the week ending
March 8, the 43 active cars on the
road only drove an average of close
to 0.8 miles before the safety
driver had to take over for one
reason or another...
The good news is the number of miles
between these "critical"
interventions has recently improved.
Last week, the company's cars drove
an average of approximately 200
miles between those types of
incidents that required a driver to
take over..." [Read more](http://www.recode.net/2017/3/16/14938116/uber-travis-kalanick-self-driving-internal-metrics-slow-progress)
Hmmm... Waymo is so incredibly
far ahead. Even with these
statistics, it depends on when
and where the miles were drive.
It is relatively unchallenging
in some places at some times,
especially if you've experienced
it many times before. Its all
about being able to handle the
unexpected to achieve Driverless.
Uber accrues no substantive
value until it reaches Driverless.
Self-driving's only value is as
a way/process to achieve
Driverless. Alain
Meet ‘Professor X,’ the AI genius who left his lab at Princeton to beat Uber, Google, and Intel at their own game
M. Weinberger, Mar 18, “In the spring of 2016, Dr. Jianxiong Xiao — affectionately known among students and staff as “Professor X” — said goodbye to his plum professorship at Princeton and his post as the founding director of the school’s Computer Vision and Robotics Labs.
By the fall of that same year,
Xiao, known as something of a
risk-taker, had moved himself and
his family from New Jersey to
Silicon Valley, and raised some
modest seed funding for his new
startup focused on self-driving
cars.
His startup, dubbed [AutoX](http://www.autox.ai/), has
done its best to stay under the
radar to date — apart from a
filing with the California DMV to
test self-driving vehicles. ...
Nowadays, Xiao says, AutoX is about 20 people strong, almost all engineers, with PhD-level computer vision talent that had previously worked at companies like Apple, Magic Leap, and Microsoft. And with all that brainpower on board, Xiao says that they were able to build their prototype from scratch in only six months, without using anyone’s technology.
" [Read more](http://www.businessinsider.com/autox-ceo-jianxiong-xiao-interview-2017-3)
Hmmm... Congratulations
Jianxiong! Chenyi, you
spawned a new "49er". Alain
There’s a raging talent war for AI experts and its costing automakers millions
D. Muoio, Mar 12, “…So why is it that tiny startups with little to no brand recognition are getting acquired for millions? AI specialists told Business Insider it has little to do with acquiring the startup’s tech and everything to do with nabbing talent.
That's because there's a serious
lack of experts in the field of
deep learning, a branch of
artificial intelligence where
computers learn on their own. Deep
learning is key to advancing
self-driving tech as it allows
cars to learn safe driving at a
much faster rate than traditional
programming.
"The growth of demand is much
faster than the rate of which we
can produce people with PhDs or
even master's in this area,"
Yoshua Bengio, head of the
Montreal Institute for Learning
Algorithms, told Business Insider.
"There's just an explosion of
interest from the industry... and
it's like a fire growing on the
prairie." ...
"The sad thing is most of these
are just for recruiting," he said.
"It's kind of a loss for the
economy because most often the
projects these small companies had
don't continue once they've been
integrated into the company…. It's
kind of a waste of resources and
investment in some sense." [Read more](http://www.businessinsider.com/ai-talent-poached-universities-for-self-driving-cars-2017-3?&platform=bi-androidapp)Hmmm...Traditional
long-career hardware engineers
that produced horsepower, fins
and chrome have been Detroit's
core; not the software and
algorithm whiz kids that have
fueled Silicon Valley and Wall
Street Banks. Now, the future
of the auto industry is in
software and algorithms rather
than horsepower, chrome and
fins. Leapfrogging Silicon
Valley in=s neither easy nor
cheap. Alain
Tesla Autopilot 2.0: Watch the latest and ‘greatly improved’ version of Autopilot at work
F. Lambert, Mar 18, “As Tesla is reportedly close to finishing its Autopilot 2.0 update that will remove the speed restrictions and bring the system to parity with the first generation, we get a good look at the latest version of Autopilot on the new hardware suite through a 30-minute drive by a Model S owner. Video…”
[Read more](https://electrek.co/2017/03/18/tesla-autopilot-2-autosteer-test-video/)Hmmm...Continued
Progress, congratulations.
Note: it is really impressive
how Tesla has been using
'crowd sourcing' and
empowering its customers to
help in this improvement
process. Compare my
experience with Daimler in the
almost 3 years that I've had
my S550 with the '997
package'. Daimler has never
even emailed a survey to
determine my satisfaction with
its drive assistance
technology (the 997 package).
Nor has it even requested that
I share any of the data that
is sensed continuously by its
array of sensor. Nor has it
offered to upgrade any of the
software during the 3 major
(non-inexpensive) maintenance
services that the car has
had. More striking, the car
was stolen from my driveway 10
days ago. Since I'm so cheap,
I never initiated the m[brace](http://mbrace.mbusa.com/)
and I was informed that the
only way that it could be
initiated was from inside the
car. I was told that there is
no emergency back door.
Amazing! I should be thankful
that they are protecting my
privacy, but what Daimler
hasn't seem to realize and
Tesla seems to have taken to
its fullest is that some of
its customers would be
interested in helping and
their experience in actually
using the technology in every
day situations is actually
very valuable and helpful. I
will now go to a showroom to
see how much improvement
Daimler has actually made in
the past 3 years compared to
how far Tesla has come with
this technology over the same
period of time. I really wish
that I didn't have such range
anxiety, so I guess I'll get a
Volvo. Alain
Insurance Company Announces Discounts For Tesla Autopilot Users
B. Anderson, Mar 17, An Ohio-based company called Root Insurance has announced that Tesla owners can get a discount on their premium if they use the Autosteer feature of Autopilot, a system that automatically keeps the vehicle in its lane without driving input. In the announcement, Root Insurance cites a report from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that concluded crash rates of Tesla models have fallen by almost 40 per cent following the introduction of Autopilot…” Read more Hmmm… Finally someone has seen the light! (and) Alain
Mobileye’s Revenge
R. Lanclot, Mar 14, “…How does the Tesla® Autopilot discount work?
During the test drive, Root's app
measures Autosteer-eligible
highway miles.
We apply a tiered discount—above
and beyond any good driver
discount you've already earned!
The higher the percent of highway
miles driven, the higher the
discount.
Good drivers of Tesla cars save a
lot of $$$ with Root!
More details: [https://blog.joinroot.com/tesladiscount/](https://blog.joinroot.com/tesladiscount/)...[Read more](https://www.strategyanalytics.com/strategy-analytics/blogs/automotive/infotainment-telematics/infotainment-telematics/2017/03/14/mobileye%27s-revenge#.WNCOjYWcGF6) Hmmm... With
the above. Alain
Self Driving versus Driverless – A Mobility Update with Alain Kornhauser #CES2107
K. Pyle, Mar 10, “…He alludes to the idea of taking a holistic view of how automation interacts with the built-environment. A self-driving approach that favors single passenger vehicles will be associated with longer commutes, more sprawl and more vehicle miles traveled. Driverless would be more like the elevator scenario, where people summon a shared vehicle, reducing congestion, energy use and vehicle miles traveled…” Read moreHmmm…Ken,
You are very kind. Thank
you. Alain
Initial Assessment and Modeling Framework Development for Automated Mobility Districts
S. Young, March, 2017, "..This paper
examines such a concept to displace
privately owned automobiles within a
region containing dense activity
generators (jobs, retail,
entertainment, etc.), referred to as
an automated mobility district
(AMDs). The paper reviews several
such districts including airport,
college campuses, business parks,
downtown urban cores, and military
bases, with examples of previous
attempts to meet the mobility needs
apart from private automobiles, some
with automated technology and others
with more traditional transit based
solutions. The issues and benefits
of AMDs are framed within the
perspective of intra-district,
inter-district, and border issues,
and the requirements for a modeling
framework are identified to
adequately reflect the breadth of
mobility, energy, and emissions
impact anticipated with AMDs...". [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/PDFs/YoungAMDWhitePape%20031017V12.pdf)Hmmm...Very
informative and worth reading.
Alain
Austin is fine without Uber and Lyft… until it isn’t
F. Tepper, Mar 12,”Since Uber and Lyft left last May, a bevy of alternatives have sprung up — like Ride Austin, Fasten and Fare. These
apps all essentially provide the
same experience as Uber and Lyft —
drop a pin and a car shows up. All
of them comply with Austin's [background-check law](https://techcrunch.com/2016/05/07/uber-and-lyft-shutdown-in-austin-after-voters-defeat-proposition-1/), and some of them even
charge drivers and riders less
than Uber and Lyft did.
I had even begun to wonder if
maybe Uber and Lyft made a mistake
by stubbornly refusing to comply
with Austin's fingerprint-based
background-check requirement,
because it showed that a major
U.S. city could actually survive
without them.
Until they couldn't.
Last night, arguably the biggest
night of SXSW, it rained —
and everyone wanted a ride. And on
cue, the apps failed. Overloaded
with demand, Ride Austin and
Fasten were essentially "bricked"
— you either got stuck at a
loading screen or the apps said
there were no cars available —
when there clearly were.
Riders were stuck, and drivers
were circling the city with no way
to get matched up with
riders....". [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/12/austin-is-fine-without-uber-and-lyft-until-it-isnt/)Hmmm...How
much do each of these
companies need Driverless
Cars?! Once we have them, how
many more of these companies
will emerge?? (unless the
maker keeps them only all for
its own use?!). Alain
Driverless Shuttle Program Kicks Off in California to Tackle First Mile/Last Mile Mobility Obstacle
P. McCauley, Mar 6, "...During a
demonstration March 6,
representatives from the Contra
Costa Transportation Authority
(CCTA), EasyMile and the Bishop
Ranch business park gathered in San
Ramon, Calif., to announce the
launch of a pilot project utilizing
two shuttles as a first mile/last
mile (FM/LM) mobility solution. The
two shuttles, costing $250,000 each,
will begin testing in an empty lot
at the business park and will
eventually move to an adjacent
occupied lot. To abide by current
state law, the pilot will transport
people across the business park
without crossing public streets..."
[Read more](http://www.govtech.com/fs/Driverless-Shuttle-Program-Kicks-Off-in-California-to-Tackle-First-MileLast-Mile-Mobility-Obstacle.html)Hmmm...It is a
start and we desperately need
real starts. Congratulations
Alain
NVIDIA and Bosch partner on AI self-driving car supercomputer
S. Hanley, Mar 17, "NVIDIA
CEO Jen-Hsun Huang announced
to attendees at the Bosch Connected
World conference in Berlin this week
that they have partnered with Bosch
to producing an artificial
intelligence supercomputer aimed at
the self-driving car industry.
"I'm so proud to announce that the
world's leading tier-one automotive
supplier — the only tier one that
supports every car maker in the
world — is building an AI car
computer for the mass market," said
Huang. "We've really supercharged
our roadmap to autonomous vehicles.
We've dedicated ourselves to build
an end-to-end deep learning
solution. Nearly everyone using deep
learning is using our platform."..."
[Read more](http://www.teslarati.com/nvidia-bosch-partner-ai-self-driving-car-supercomputer/)
Hmmm...Teams are forming. :-)
Alain
2016 Was The Year Of Autonomous Vehicles For SEC Filings
M. Leder, Mar 10, "...In 2016,
Footnoted counted 128 filings that
made some kind of reference to
"autonomous vehicles." That was up
from just 37 in 2015, and 23 in
2014. Between 2000 and 2013, there
were a total of 75 references to
autonomous vehicles in filings. That
number looks to take another giant
leap this year. Already through
March 7, there were 54 filings with
autonomous vehicle disclosures...."
[Read more](http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/03/2016-year-autonomous-vehicles/)
Hmmm...It's 1849 and its a gold
rush. :-) Alain
2017 INRIX Autonomous Vehicle Study
March 2017, “…“Shared-use vehicles will be a highly effective deployment of autonomous vehicles, where shorter, intra-city trips can maximize occupancy and efficiency, which means safer, faster and more convenient travel for users,” said Avery Ash, autonomous vehicle market strategist at INRIX…” Read more Hmmm…Interesting report from the folks that understand traffic congestion throughout the nation. Alain
Volvo Trucks tests on-highway three-truck platooning
Staff, Mar 13, "Volvo Trucks and
Partners for Advanced Transportation
Technology (PATH) at the University
of California, Berkeley recently
completed a successful demonstration
of partially automated truck
platooning, made possible by
Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control,
or CACC, technology.
Three Volvo VNL 670 model tractors hauled cargo containers at California’s Los Angeles Port complex and along Interstate 110, highlighting for public officials and other stakeholders the technology’s potential for improving highway safety, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing the capacity of transportation systems….” Read moreHmmm…Platooning
is a fine demonstration, but
these truck all need really
good Automated Collision
Avoidance systems that
actually work before they go
trying to find someone to
platoon with. Just as with
connected vehicles, it is
going to take substantial
deployment before meaningful
benefits/value can be accrued.
Alain
NIO unveils new self-driving electric car concept, says they’ll have autonomous cars in the US by 2020
F. Lambert, Mar 10 "Electric and
autonomous vehicle startup NIO
unveiled a new concept today to set
the tone for its upcoming mass
market car. That's after first
showcasing its tech in a $1 million
supercar last year.
In Austin for SXSW today, NIO laid
out its "vision" for the future of
autonomous cars and the"NIO EVE"
concept is the first embodiment of
that vision..." [Read more](https://electrek.co/2017/03/10/nio-self-driving-electric-car-concept-2020/)Hmmm...Welcome
the the gold rush. Alain
Some
other thoughts that
deserve your attention
###
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
Half-baked
stuff that probably
doesn't deserve your
time
###
C’mon Man!(These
folks didn't
get/read the memo)
Cars Now Talk to Other Cars, if You’re Into That Sort of Thing
A. Marshall, Mar 16, “Excellent news for the gas-sipping, headlight-blinking, gossipy autos among us. Cadillac’s flagship 2017 CTS sedan will talk to other cars. Well, other 2017 Cadillac CTS sedans, but it’s a start. If the government gets its way, all cars will talk to each other one day soon.
Engineers call the
technology vehicle to
vehicle communication.
General Motors and
Uncle Sam call it the
future of automotive
safety in a country
where more than 32,000
people died in
collisions last year.
Today, V2V might let
one Cadillac warn
another to a
predicament..."
Read moreHmmm..
The last sentence
is too
embarrassing to
reprint above.
Chances that 2
Cadillacs are
close enough and
both equipped for
V2V to be of any
value is 'slim to
none'. Cadillac,
please just focus
on getting
Automated
Collision
Avoidance to just
work and push
that. Alain
Calendar
of Upcoming
Events:
###
Commercialization
Summit
May 17 & 18, 2017
Princeton
University
Princeton, NJ
Save the Date
Recent
Highlights of:
#
###
###
March 10, 2017
Intel to Buy Mobileye, Maker of Sensors for Self-Driving Cars, for $15.3 Billion
M. Scott, Mar 13, “Intel agreed on Monday to buy Mobileye, an Israeli technology company that specializes in making sensors and cameras for autonomous cars, for $15.3 billion, as the global microchip giant tries to expand its reach in the fast-growing sector….As part of the deal, Intel said it would buy Mobileye’s outstanding shares at $63.54 a share, a 34 percent premium to Mobileye’s closing price on Friday….
Intel’s deal for Mobileye seems to be a recognition that chip-making rivals like Nvidia and Qualcomm have moved slightly ahead in the race to provide the computing power needed for autonomous cars… Intel said it would continue investing in the autonomous-driving industry, a sector that it said would be worth about $70 billion by 2030…“ Read moreHmmm…
The hits keep
coming!
Friday..the [California Regs welcoming Driverless](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/auto);
Monday... this.
Tomorrow...
nVIDIA???? Alain
Robot cars — with no human driver — could hit California roads next year
R. Mitchell, Mar 10, “California is back on the map as a state that’s serious about welcoming driverless cars.Truly driverless cars — vehicles with no human behind the wheel, and perhaps no steering wheel at all — are headed toward California streets and highways starting in 2018…
The regulations lay out “a clear path for future deployment of autonomous vehicles” in California, said Bernard Soriano, deputy director at the Department of Motor Vehicles….” Read moreHmmm…
Congratulations
Bernard! This is
fantastic news on
the road to
providing
high-quality
mobility for all.
It squarely
addresses the
fundamental need
to efficiently
re-position
vehicles so that
they can get to
even those who
can't drive. This
is a real turning
point for
automated vehicles
from self-driving
toys for the 1% to
affordable,
environmentally
friendly mobility
for everyone.
Alain
March 3, 2017
Buffett has an interesting theory about why self-driving cars will hurt the insurance industry
E. Gurdus, Feb 27, “The self-driving car business could become a major threat to insurance companies when the technology hits the market, billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.
If autonomous vehicles
prove to be safer than
regular cars,
insurance costs will
plummet, and by the
time roads are filled
with self-driving cars
insurers like Geico
will have taken a
serious hit, Buffett
said...
“If I had to take the over and under [bet] ten years from now on whether 10 percent of the cars on the road would be self-driving, I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong,” he said….” Read moreHmmm…Really
shouldn't go
against Buffet;
however, he's
going to be
smiling all the
way to the bank.
I just don't see
how the premise
implies Geico
takes a serious
hit. I tell
everyone that I
don't understand
insurance. I
guess I just don't
understand
insurance. :-(
I suspect that by cars he means cars + light trucks for which there are about 250M currently registered in the US with 38% being greater than 10 years old. Assuming these basic numbers remain roughly constant: of the 155M vehicles sold in the next 10 years, 25M or 16% would need to be ‘Self-driving’. Since we are starting from a zero base with zero production, we are going to need to be upwards of a 30% adoption rate in the 10th year in order to have populated 16% of the fleet through that year. So, I agree with Warren wrt ‘Self-driving’”: “I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong” Wrt ‘Safe-driving, I would take the over, because the early numbers are attainable, especially if Insurance comes on board. Wrt ‘Diverless’:
No way unless they
are manufactured
by a
non-traditional
entity that is
totally disruptive
in years 8, 9 and
10. Alain
February 24, 2017
Alphabet’s Waymo Alleges Uber Stole Self-Driving Secrets
M. Bergen, Feb 23, “It took Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo seven years to design and build a laser-scanning system to guide its self-driving cars. Uber Technologies Inc. allegedly did it in nine months.
Waymo claims in a
lawsuit filed Thursday
that was possible
because a former
employee stole the
designs and technology
and started a new
company....Anthony
Levandowski, a former
manager at Waymo, in
December 2015
downloaded more than
14,000 proprietary and
confidential files,
including the lidar
circuit board designs,
according to the
complaint. He also
allegedly created a
domain name for his
new company and
confided in some of
his Waymo colleagues
of plans to
"replicate" its
technology for a
competitor...." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/alphabet-s-waymo-sues-uber-for-stealing-self-driving-patents)
Hmmm...This is
very serious. So
unfortunate.
:-( Alain
February 17, 2017
Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2016 Estimated to be Highest in Nine Years
Press release, Feb. 15, “NSC offers insight into what drivers are doing and calls for immediate implementation of proven, life-saving measures…
With the upward trend
showing no sign of
subsiding, NSC is
calling for immediate
implementation of
life-saving measures
that would set the
nation on a [road to zero](http://www.nsc.org/learn/NSC-Initiatives/Pages/The-Road-to-Zero.aspx)
deaths:..." [Read more](http://www.nsc.org/Connect/NSCNewsReleases/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=180)Hmmm..."Automated
Collision
Avoidance" or
anything having to
do with 'Safe-driving
Cars' is not
mentioned anywhere
in the Press
Release. One of
us is missing
something very
fundamental
here!! So
depressing!! :-(
Alain
February 10, 2017
Regulatory Chill May Pivot Connected Vehicle Tech’s Course
M. Ross, Feb 8, “Technology and telecommunications groups opposed to a federal mandate that cars automatically communicate with each other are hoping the proposal is an early victim of President Donald Trump’s regulatory clampdown.
The Department of
Transportation rushed
to publish a draft
rule in the final days
of the Obama
administration that
would mandate all new
cars and light trucks
be equipped to
transmit data to other
vehicles to warn their
drivers of potential
collisions. The
department and
automobile
manufacturers have
been laying the
groundwork for such a
rule for more than a
decade, with millions
of dollars in
testing indicating
that the radio-based
technology could immediately
save lives. No,
that's its
fundamental flaw.
Even if you have
it, it can't do
you any good
unless the other
guy has it. Thus
it can't do
anything immediately
...The
draft rule could save
up to 1,365 lives each
year by 2060.
Immediately???
I'll surely be
dead and gone. All
that money spent
to get such a
finding.
....The total annual
costs to comply with
the mandate 30 years
after the rule's
launch range from $2.2
billion to $5 billion,
according to 2016
NHTSA data. Consumers
can expect to pay
about an extra $300
per vehicle equipped
with DSRC technology,
the data show.
That's a lot of
'good money to be
thrown after
bad'. Let's spend
Billions to
justify our
Millions in sunk
costs? Much
worse than
'doubling down' ...Meanwhile,
artificial
intelligence, camera
technology, sensors
and radar, which are
already being used in
autonomous vehicle
development, improve
vehicle safety and
don't require cars to
be connected to each
other, Paul Brubaker,
president and CEO of
the Alliance for
Transportation
Innovation,..."
Read moreHmmm…
Not 'Regulatory
Chill' but simply
Common Sense. [C'mon Man!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtWZCq8A4T4) I'm
on the AV side of
this one. V2V is
fine on top of AV,
but staying on the
DSRC bandwagon is
silly when it will
be completely
obsolesced by [5G](https://www.ericsson.com/news/170207-ericsson-st-ericsson-bmw-group-korea_244010065_c)
before it has
sufficient
penetration to be
better than 'a
hope & a
prayer' in
avoiding crashes.
V2V requires both
vehicles to have
the technology.
The chance that both
cars can even talk
to each other, let
alone know what to
do and do what is
needed, to avoid a
crash is the
product of the
adoption
percentage of
DSRC. So, a
mandate today,
that pertains only
to having DSRC in
new cars, will be
lucky to be in 30%
of the cars by
2025. Thus, the
chance that DSRC
is even relevant
in an impending
crash is 0.3 x 0.3
= 0.09. Meaning
that there is only
about a 10% (1 in
10) chance that
DSRC is even
relevant in
averting a crash.
It simply takes a
long time to
replace the cars
that are on the
road today with
new ones.
However, many of
us replace our
phones with the
latest and
greatest [much more quickly](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/),
so that by 2025 it
is not
unreasonable that
as many as 70% of
drivers will have
5G phones. The
chance that these
phones will have
the opportunity to
be a relevant V2V
device in averting
a crash is
0.7 x 0.7 =
0.49 .
Which road should
we go down... DSRC
mandate giving us
at best a 1 in 10
chance of being
relevant in 2025 (
and we still need
AV to perform the
avoidance of the
crash) or wait and
piggy back on our
5G device that
gives us a 1 in 2
chance in 2025 at
no additional cost
because we will have
purchased it
for other
reasons.
Alain
January 27, 2017
Serving the Nation’s Personal Mobility Needs with the Casual Sharing of autonomousTaxis & Today’s Urban Rail, Amtrak and Air Transport Systems
A. Kornhauser, Jan 14, “Orf467F16 Final Project Symposium quantifying implications of such a Nation-wide mobility system on Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO), energy, environment and congestion, including estimates of fleet size, needed empty vehicle repositioning, and ridership implications on existing rail transit systems (west, east, NYC) and Amtrak of a system that would efficiently and effectively perform their ‘1st mile’/’last-mile’ mobility needs. Read more Hmmm…
Now linked are 1st
Drafts of the
chapters and the
powerPoint
summaries of these
elements. Final
Report should be
available by early
February. The
major finding is,
nationwide there
exists sufficient
casual ridesharing
potential that a
well--managed
Nationwide Fleet
of about 30M
aTaxis (in
conjunction with
the existing air,
Amtrak and Urban
fixed-rail
systems) could
serve the
vehicular mobility
needs of the whole
nation with VMT
40%
less than today's
automobiles while
providing a
Level-of-Service
(LoS) largely
equivalent and in
many ways superior
than is delivered
by the personal
automobile today.
Also interesting
are the findings
as to the
substantial
increased
patronage
opportunities
available to
Amtrak and each of
the fixed rail
transit systems
around the country
because the aTaxis
solve the '1st and
last mile'
problem. While
all of this is
extremely good
news, the
challenging news
is that since all
of these fixed
rail systems
currently lose
money on each
passenger served,
the additional
patronage would
likely mean that
they'll lose even
more money in the
future. :-(
Alain
January 20, 2017
Fiscal Year 2016 SRD Program Grant Selections
Public Announcement,
Jan 22: "Pierce
Transit will receive
$1,664,894 to deploy
buses equipped with
collision avoidance
warning systems or
automatic braking
features. The
objective of this
project is to deploy
and demonstrate
collision avoidance
technology in
partnership with the
Washington State
Transit Insurance Pool
(WSTIP), a
collaborative
organization of 25
Washington public
transit agencies that
combine their
resources to provide
and purchase insurance
coverage, manage
claims and litigation,
and receive risk
management and
training. Pierce
Transit will work with
WSTIP to accurately
determine the business
case for investing in
these technologies." [Read more](https://www.transit.dot.gov/research-innovation/fiscal-year-2016-srd-program-grant-selections)Hmmm...
Finally!! More
than 3 years since
Lou Sanders of
APTA, Jerome Lutin
and I first
proposed to FTA to
do such a thing
for the benefit of
the entire bus
transit industry
(which FTA deemed
as non-worthy) the
FTA has finally
turned around and
jumped on-board.
The unfortunate
news: we lost 3
years. The
fortunate news:
the process of
substantially
reducing bus
crashes is finally
underway thanks to
the hard work in
the interim by
Jerome Lutin and
Jerry Spears
(formerly of
WSTIP). This and
the good news
below from Tesla
may finally
enlighten the
insurance industry
to play a
leadership role in
the market
adoption of
SafeDrivingCars/Buses/Trucks.
Congratulations
Jerome &
Jerry! Alain
ODI (Office of Defects Investigation) Findings on Tesla AEB & AutoPilot
###
(Above
link should work)
Jan 19, "...
Summary: ...
NHTSA's examination
did not identify any
defects in the
design or
performance of the
AEB or Autopilot
systems of the
subject vehicles nor
any incidents in
which the systems
did not perform as
designed. AEB
systems used in the
automotive industry
through MY 2016 are
rear-end collision
avoidance
technologies that
are not designed to
reliably perform in
all crash modes,
including crossing
path collisions.
The Autopilot system
is an Advanced
Driver Assistance
System (ADAS) that
requires the
continual and full
attention of the
driver to monitor
the traffic
environment and be
prepared to take
action to avoid
crashes. Tesla's
design included a
hands-on the
steering wheel
system for
monitoring driver
engagement...
... ODI analyzed
data from crashes of
Tesla Model S and
Model X vehicles
involving airbag
deployments that
occurred while
operating in, or
within 15 seconds of
transitioning from,
Autopilot mode. Some
crashes involved
impacts from other
vehicles striking
the Tesla from
various directions
with little to no
warning to the Tesla
driver. Other
crashes involved
scenarios known to
be outside of the
state-of-technology
for
current-generation
Level 1 or 2
systems, such as
cut-ins, cut-outs
and crossing path
collisions....
...The Florida fatal
crash appears to
have involved a
period of extended
distraction (at
least 7 seconds)..."
.Hmmm... nothing
else is
written about
this nor is a
basis given
for the 'at
least 7
seconds'.
Possibly the
most important
information
revealed in
this summary
is Figure 11,
p11: "...
Figure 11
shows the
rates
calculated by
ODI for airbag
deployment
crashes in the
subject Tesla
vehicles
before and
after
Autosteer
installation.
The data show
that the Tesla
vehicles crash
rate dropped
by almost 40
percent after
Autosteer
installation...
...A
safety-related
defect trend
has not been
identified at
this time and
further
examination of
this issue
does not
appear to be
warranted.
Accordingly,
this investigation
is closed. "
Read more Hmmm…
WOW!!! .
Every
word of this
Finding is worth
reading. It
basically
exonerates
Tesla, states
that AEBs
(Automated
Emergency
Braking) systems
don't really
work and aren't
designed to work
in some
scenarios
(straight
crossing path
(SCP) and left
turn across path
(LTAP), see p
2,3). ...which
suggests, to me,
that DoT/NHTSA
should be
placing
substantial
efforts on
making these
systems really
work in more
scenarios.
And... there is
the solid data
that 'AutoSteer"
reduced Tesla
crashes by
almost 40%!!!
WOW!! Will
Insurance now
finally get
on-board and
lead? Alai
January 13, 2017
Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx Announces New Federal Committee on Automation
News, Jan 10, “…U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx. “I’m proud to announce this new automation committee, and look forward to seeing its members advance life-saving innovations while boosting our economy and making our transportation network more fair, reliable, and efficient.”… Read more Hmmm…
Excellent!!!
Congratulations
Chris, Bryant,
Missy and everyone
else. Alain
December 14, 2016
Google is spinning off its self-driving car program into a new company called Waymo
A. Hawkins, Dec 13, “Today, Google announced that it would be spinning off its six-year-old self-driving project into a standalone business called Waymo, which stands for “a new way forward in mobility,” according to John Krafcik, the CEO of the new company.
It was previously
reported that Google
would be dropping its
plan to build its own
vehicle without
steering wheels and
pedals, instead
focusing on creating
the self-driving
technology that can be
installed in
third-party vehicles.
Krafcik didn't provide
much clarity there,
but did state
definitively that the
new company was still
fully committed to
fully autonomous
vehicle technology.
"We are all in, 100
percent, on Level Four
and Level Five fully
driverless solutions,"
he said.
Krafcik didn't comment
on a report in
Bloomberg that Google
would be starting its
own ride-sharing
service in partnership
with Fiat Chrysler
using the Italian car
maker's Pacifica
minivans as its fleet
of self-driving taxis.
Google and FCA
announced their
collaboration earlier
this year. Krafcik did
confirm that the
self-driving Pacificas
were still in the
build phase, but would
hopefully be on the
road for testing very
soon.
It may be too soon to
say that Google is
abandoning its plans
to build it's own
fleet of driverless
cars, without steering
wheels and pedals.
That said, Krafcik
made it clear that
Waymo "is not a car
company, there's been
some confusion on that
point. We're not in
business of making
better cars, we're in
the business of making
better drivers."...[Read more](http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/13/13936782/google-self-driving-car-waymo-spin-off-company)
Hmmm...
Boy that is a lot
of hedging. If
they are in the
business of making
better drivers,
then all they need
to do is to make
Automated
Collision
Avoidance systems
that actually
work... avoid
collisions (aka
Safe-driving
Cars). That would
make all drivers
better drivers,
but it wouldn't do
anything for
non-drivers... the
young, old, poor,
blind, those under
the influence,
... Has Google
abandoned all of
those folks and
reverted to the
'dark-side'?
Alain
December 7, 2016
Why the driverless car industry is happy (so far) with Trump’s pick for Transportation secretary
R. Mitchell, Dec 6, “Silicon Valley voted heavily for Hillary Clinton, but companies working on driverless cars seem overjoyed with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Transportation secretary, Elaine Chao. Chao will wield great power over how driverless cars and other automated vehicles will be regulated — or not….Industry insiders say they don’t want Chao to ignore driverless car policy….
Instead, they hope to
avoid a patchwork of
differing and
conflicting rules
across the 50
states. "This should
be centralized," said
Alain L. Kornhauser,
director of the
transportation program
at Princeton
University and an
autonomous vehicle
expert, "but that
doesn't mean the
states don't play a
part. It would be
better if we had a
common
understanding...." [Read more](http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-chao-trump-driverless-20161205-story.html)Hmmm...
Yup! Alain
October 27, 2016
Ontario Must Prepare for Vehicle Automation
B. Grush, Oct. 2016, “Two contradictory stories about our transportation infrastructure are currently in circulation. One is that Ontario’s aging, inadequate and congested infrastructure is perennially unable to catch up with a growing and sprawling GTHA. The other is that vehicle automation will soon dramatically multiply current road capacity by enabling narrower lanes, shorter headways and coordinated streams of connected vehicles to pass through intersections without traffic signals to impede flow.
Since the premature
forecast of peak car
in 2008 and now the
hype surrounding the
automated vehicle, we
are often told that we
have enough road
capacity; that shared
robotic taxis will
optimize our trips,
reduce congestion, and
largely eliminate the
need for parking. This
advice implies we need
wait only a few short
years to experience
relief from our
current infrastructure
problems given by
decades of
under-investment in
transportation
infrastructure.
This is wishful thinking. Vehicle automation will give rise to two different emerging markets: semi-automated vehicles for household consumption and fully automated vehicles for public service such as robo-taxi and robo-transit. These two vehicle types will develop in parallel to serve different social markets. They will compete for both riders and infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to look at why and how government agencies and public interest groups can and should influence the preferred types and deployment of automated vehicles and the implication of related factors for planning…” Read moreHmmm…Bravo!
The Key Findings
&
Recommendations
are excellent.
This is an excellent
report (but it
largely misses
goods movement.)
Especially 5.1
(read
'semi-autonomous'
as 'Self-driving'
and
'full-automation'
as 'Driverless'.
My view:
Driverless may
well be at the
heals of
Self-driving
because it is a
business play
rather than a
consumer play.
Driverless will be
ordered by the
hundreds or
thousands rather
than
individually.)
and, of course Ch
10: Ownership (the
business model) is
more important
than technology.
Alain
September 23, 2016
Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety
September
2016, "Executive
Summary...For DOT, the
excitement around
highly automated
vehicles (HAVs) starts
with safety. (p5)
…The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)
…The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)
…The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6) Hmmm…Fantastic
statements and I
appreciate that
the fundamental
basis and
motivator is
SAFETY. We all
have recognized
safety as a necessary
condition
that must be
satisfied if this
technology is to
be successful.
(unfortunately it
is not a sufficient
condition, (in a
pure math
context)). This
policy statement
appropriately
reaffirms this
necessary
condition. Alain
“…we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (…defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm…Perfect!
Alain
"...1. Vehicle
Performance Guidance
for Automated Vehicles
(p6)..." Hmmm...
15 Points, more
later. Alain
“…2. Model State Policy (p7) The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities…but…
The shared objective
is to ensure the
establishment of a
consistent national
framework rather than
a patchwork of
incompatible laws..."
Hmmm...
Well done. Alain
“…3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) … This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to…” Hmmm…
Excellent. Alain
“…4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)…The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)…“ Hmmm…
Yes. Alain
“…Note
on "Levels of
Automation"
There are multiple
definitions for
various levels of
automation and for
some time there has
been need for
standardization to aid
clarity and
consistency.
Therefore, this Policy
adopts the SAE
International (SAE)
definitions for levels
of automation. ) Hmmm...
I'm not sure this
adds clarity
because it does
not deal directly
with the
difference between
self-driving
and driverless.
While it might be
implied in level 4
and level 5 that
these vehicles can
proceed with no
one in the
vehicle, it is not
stated
explicitly. That
is unfortunate,
because driverless
freight delivery
can't be done
without
"driverless";
neither can
mobility-on-demand
be offered to the
young, old, blind,
inebriated,
...without
"driverless".
Vehicles can't be
"repositioned-empty"
(which (I don't
mean to offend
anyone) is the
real value of a
taxi driver
today). So
autonomousTaxis
are impossible.
Also, these levels
do not address
Automated
Emergency Braking
(AEB) Systems and
Automated Lane
Keeping Systems
which are the very
first systems
whose
on-all-the-time
performance must
be perfected.
These are the
Safety Foundation
of HAV (Highly
Automated
vehicles). I
understand that
the guidelines may
assume that these
systems are
already perfect
and that "[20 manufacturer have committed"](http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/Press+Releases/nhtsa-iihs-commitment-on-aeb-03172016)
to have AEB on all
new cars, but to
date these systems
really don't
work. In 12 mph [IIHS test,](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/front-crash-prevention-tests) [few stop](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/news/desktopnews/iihs-issues-first-crash-avoidance-ratings-under-new-test-program-7-midsize-vehicles-earn-top-marks-for-front-crash-prevention) before
[hitting the target](http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/ratings-info/front-crash-prevention-tests),
and, as we
may have seen
with the
Florida [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar)
crash, the
Level 2/3
AutoPilot may
not have
failed, but,
instead, it
was the
"Phantom Level
1" AEB that is
supposed to be
on all the
time.
This is not
acceptable. These
AEB systems MUST
get infinitely
better now. It is
a shame that AEBs
were were not
explicitly
addressed in this
document.
“…I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7) However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems
are subject to NHTSA's
defects, recall and
enforcement authority.
(footnote 8) .
and the "[15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/technology/the-15-point-federal-checklist-for-self-driving-cars.html?_r=0)"
p17)
In
sum this is a very
good document and
displays just how
far DoT policy has
come from
promoting v2v,
DSRC and
centralized
control,
"connected",
focus to creating
an environment
focused on
individual
vehicles that
responsibly take
care of
themselves. Kudos
to Secretary Foxx
for this 180
degree policy turn
focused on safety.
Once done
correctly, the HAV
will yield the
early safety
benefits that will
stimulate
continued
improvements that,
in turn, will
yield the great
mobility,
environmental and
quality-of-life
benefits afforded
by driverless
mobility.
What
are not addressed
are commercial
trucking and
buses/mass
transit. NHTSA is
auto focused, so
maybe [FMCSA](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjI8vmStKbPAhUI7B4KHSRaBxAQFggcMAA&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fmcsa.dot.gov%2F&usg=AFQjCNEKkZvez7dOYIqiBxYPDucwxRgJcw&sig2=RGU_oDQLrEeB12fB-KIdxg&bvm=bv.133700528,d.amc)
is preparing
similar
guidelines. [FTA](https://www.transit.dot.gov/)
(Federal Transit
Administration)
seems nowhere in
sight. Alain
August 1, 2016
Mobileye Ends Partnership With Tesla
July 11, 2016
Lessons From the Tesla Crash
July 5, 2016
7 Crash
Hmmm…What
we know now (and
don't know):
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Chenyi Chen PhD
Dissertation , "...the
key part of the
thesis, a direct
perception approach is
proposed to drive a
car in a highway
environment. In this
approach, an input
image is mapped to a
small number of key
perception indicators
that directly relate
to the affordance of a
road/traffic state for
driving....." [Read more](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/Theses/chenyiPhDfinal_ExtractingCognitionOutOfImagesForThePurposeOfAutonomousDriving.pdf) Hmmm..[FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Presentations/ChenyiFPO.pdf),
Establishing a
foundation for
image-based
autonomous driving
using DeepLearning
Neural Networks
trained in virtual
environments. Very
promising. Alain
March 25, 2016
Hearing focus of SF 2569 Autonomous vehicles task force establishment and demonstration project for people with disabilities
March 23 Hmmm…
[Watch the video of the Committee Meeting](http://mnsenate.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=1&clip_id=235).
The testimony is Excellent
and very
compelling! Also
see [Self-Driving Minnesota](http://www.selfdrivingmn.org/)
Alain
March 17, 2016
U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
December 19,
2015
Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars
Video similar to part of
Adam's Luncheon talk @
2015 Florida Automated
Vehicle Symposium on Dec
1. [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4) especially
at the 13:12 mark.
Compelling;
especially after the
60 Minutes segment
above! Also see his
[TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
Alain
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