2017-04-11
10th edition of the 5th year of SmartDrivingCars
###
Announcing:
SmartDrivingCar Summit
University, Princeton, NJ
Alain
April 10, 2017
The Autonomous Vehicle Global Study
F. Bruneteau, Apr 2017 “….Yet, despite their potential to reduce accidents, these features have been mostly ignored by insurers so far and have had little effect on premiums (p9)….” Read more Hmmmm… This report is not free so I can’t link it but this statement suggests that it may be very worthwhile. Alain
Tesla becomes most valuable U.S. car maker, edges out GM
N. Randewich, Apr 11, "For the first time in the era of
the modern automobile, the most valuable U.S. car maker
is not based in Detroit..." [Read more](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla-idUSKBN17C1XF) Hmmmm... See
comment after next listing. Alain
Tesla Passes Ford in Market Value as Investors Bet on the Future
B. Vlasic, Apr 3, "The record pace of auto sales in the
United States is slowing down, leaving investors
increasingly bearish on auto stocks.
But there is one exception. Tesla, the electric-vehicle
upstart, continues to surge.
On Monday, Tesla surpassed Ford Motor in market value
for the first time and moved within striking distance of
General Motors, starkly illustrating the growing gap in
investors' optimism over its future versus the prospects
for the traditional carmakers from Detroit... [Read more](https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/03/business/tesla-ford-general-motors-stock-market.html?_r=0) Hmmmm... Is
it because they are electric or because they have
AutoPilot. A most crazy hypothesis: The upswing
since the election is due to Washington's Energy
& Environmental Policy. Can you say
'AutoPilot'??? Alain
GM comes after Tesla with its own semi-autonomous driving system for Cadillac
B. Williams, Apr 10, " Make some room in the cruising
lane, Tesla: Cadillac's Super Cruise is ready for
action. The long-developed product, coming as an add-on
feature for the 2018 CT6 sedan, will jockey with Tesla's
Autopilot to be the best semi-autonomous experience on
the highway..." [Read more](http://mashable.com/2017/04/10/cadilllac-super-cruise-driving/#fqAgUWt_jOqU) Hmmmm... Isn't
there a big difference between 'coming as an add-on
feature' and 'in user's cars today'??? 'Super
Cruise' has been 'coming' for a long time. Now that
GM is no longer leading, maybe it will finally
follow. Ouch! Alain
Future mobility: Bosch and Daimler join forces to work on fully automated, driverless system
Press Release, Apr 4, " Bosch and Daimler are joining
forces to advance the development of fully automated and
driverless driving. The two companies have entered into
a development agreement to bring fully automated (SAE
Level 4) and driverless (SAE Level 5) driving to urban
roads by the beginning of the next decade. The objective
is to develop software and algorithms for an autonomous
driving system. The project combines the total vehicle
expertise of the world's leading premium manufacturer
with the system and hardware expertise of the world's
biggest supplier.... The vehicle will then make its way
autonomously to the user and the onward journey can
commence...[Read more](http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/Future-mobility-Bosch-and-Daimler-join-forces-to-work-on-fully-automated-driverless-system.xhtml?oid=16389692) Hmmmm... If
they allow/encourage casual ride-sharing, they will
have re-invented mass transit (where mass = 2 or 3
or...). Yes!! Alain
Google’s former self-driving car guru raises cash for his own startup
K. Kokalitcheva, Apr 5, "Aurora Innovation, the stealth
startup founded by the former CTO of Alphabet's
self-driving car project, has raised over $3 million in
venture capital funding, according to an SEC filing.
Keep reading 230 words
The team: Along with CEO Chris Urmson, who left Alphabet
last year, the startup also boasts Sterling Anderson,
who previously oversaw Tesla's Autopilot software. The
company has also hired several of Uber's self-driving
car engineers in Pittsburgh (many of which Uber lured
away from Carnegie Mellon a couple of years ago), as
well as engineers who have worked at Tesla, Nvidia, and
Google.
The company: Aurora will develop a "full package" of
software, hardware, and data to sell to automakers who
want to build their own autonomous cars, .....The
company raised just over $3.1 million last month. Allen
& Company managing director Ian Smith is listed as
member of Aurora's board, likely a sign that his firm
invested. [Read more](https://www.axios.com/the-former-cto-of-google-self-driving-car-has-raised-money-for-his-own-2344944616.html) Hmmmm... Congratulations
Chris! Seems like a good bet. Alain
Zoox autonomous vehicle start-up hires ex-NHTSA’s Rosekind
A. Sage, Apr 3, "Autonomous car start-up Zoox said on
Monday that former top U.S. safety regulator Mark
Rosekind was joining the Silicon Valley company as its
chief safety innovation officer, underscoring the key
role regulation will play in the nascent autonomous
driving sector.
The hiring of Rosekind, the former head of the U.S.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA),
is a major play for Zoox, which has remained secretive
about its plans and strategy, and a hire that shows the
importance of regulation in how self-driving technology
rolls out. Zoox said Rosekind would lead the company's
efforts to "safely develop, test and deploy autonomous
vehicles." [Read more](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autonomous-zoox-rosekind-idUSKBN1751VX?il=0) Hmmmm... Great
catch. Congratulations Mark! Alain
Another startup promises self-driving taxis ‘soon’
A. Dalton, Apr 6, “…Udacity already trains engineers for work in the fast-growing autonomous vehicles field, but now the company is ready to harness all that talent and launch its own self-driving taxi company. Led by CEO (and former Udacity Vice President) Oliver Cameron, the new spin-off company will be called Voyage and has given itself the goal of getting autonomous taxis to “real users” in less than five years…. Voyage can hit that goal thanks to a “maturing” ecosystem that will allow the company to add autonomous functions to existing vehicles…” Read more Hmmmm… Finally, someone’s going after the after-market. (Although, isn’t that what Google did???) Alain
Renesas ‘Opens’ Autonomy for Cars
J. Yosida, Apr 11, "Renesas Electronics emerged from a
prolonged silence with a bang Wednesday morning (Japan
time), heralding the launch of Renesas Autonomy, a
newly-designed advanced driving assistance systems
(ADAS) and automated driving platform.
Although details of the platform remain sketchy (the
company isn't yet disclosing all the plaform's building
blocks), Amrit Vivekanand, vice president for automotive
business at Renesas Electronics America, stressed that
his company's autonomous vehicle platform stands apart
from its competitors because, "This is an open
platform."
The operative word here is "open." [Read more](http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1331582) Hmmmm... Great!
Alain
GM and SAE International Select 8 North American Universities for New Autonomous Vehicle Competition
Apr 6, "...This new autonomous vehicle design
competition is a three-year challenge to develop and
demonstrate a fully autonomous passenger vehicle. The
competition's technical goal is navigating an urban
driving course in an automated driving mode as described
by SAE Standard (J3016) level 4 definition by Year
3...GM will provide each team with a Chevrolet Bolt EV
as the vehicle platform. Strategic partners and
suppliers will aid the students in their technology
development by providing vehicle parts and software...[Read more](http://safecarnews.com/gm-and-sae-international-select-8-north-american-universities-for-new-autonomous-vehicle-competition/) Hmmmm... Congratulations!
Alain
Some other
thoughts that deserve your attention
How not to create traffic jams, pollution and urban sprawl
Parkgeddon, Apr 8, "Don't let people park for
free...EVEN if the new headquarters that Apple is
creating in California does not prove to be "the best
office building in the world", as Steve Jobs boasted
shortly before his death in 2011, it will be an
astounding sight. ..And then, unfortunately, there's the
car park. For 14,000 workers, Apple is building almost
11,000 parking spaces. ... Tot up all the parking spaces
and the lanes and ramps that will allow cars to reach
them, ... In all, the new headquarters will contain
318,000 square meters of offices and laboratories. The
car parks will occupy 325,000 square meters...Apple is
building 11,000 parking spaces not because it wants to
but because Cupertino, the suburban city where the new
headquarters is located, demands it....But parking
influences the way cities look, and how people travel
around them, more powerfully than almost anything else..
Water companies are not obliged to supply all the water
that people would use if it were free, nor are power
companies expected to provide all the free electricity
that customers might want. But many cities try to
provide enough spaces to meet the demand for free
parking, even at peak times..
Some base their parking minimums on the "Parking
Generation Handbook", a tome produced by the Institute
of Transportation Engineers. This reports how many cars
are found in the free car parks of synagogues,
water-slide parks and so on when they are busiest...[Read more](http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21720269-dont-let-people-park-free-how-not-create-traffic-jams-pollution-and-urban-sprawl?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/) Hmmmm... Talk
about something that is in desperate need of being
reinvented... the ITE Parking Generation Handbook.
Was it originally written by the Auto Industry?
Alain
Driverless shuttle bus to be tested by public in London
D. Thomas, Apr 5, "Over the next three weeks, about 100
people will travel in a prototype shuttle on a route in
Greenwich, London. The vehicle, which travels up to
10mph (16.1kmph), will be controlled by a computer.
However, there will be a trained person on board who can
stop the shuttle if required during the tests. [Oxbotica](http://www.oxbotica.com/), the firm
that developed the technology behind the shuttle, said
5,000 people had applied to take part. [Read more](http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-39495915) Hmmmm... The
Gateway vehicle looks a lot like [Heathrow's ULTra Pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Byk8LcPovOQ). :-) Alain
###
On the More Technical Side
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/
Half-baked
stuff that probably doesn't deserve your time
25% of U.S. driving could be done by self-driving cars by 2030, study finds
D. Etherington, Apr 9, "Self-driving still seems to be a
ways off from active public use on regular roads, but
once it arrives, it could ramp very quickly, according
to a new study by the Boston Consulting Group. The study
found that by 2030, up to a quarter of driving miles in
the U.S. could be handled by self-driving electric
vehicles operating in shared service fleets in cities,
due mostly to considerable cost savings for urban
drivers..." [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/10/25-of-u-s-driving-could-be-done-by-self-driving-cars-by-2030-study-finds/) Hmmmm... Sorry,
Self-driving doesn't stimulate car-sharing, nor does
it stimulate casual ride-sharing. So there will be
no cost reduction (except insurance which is
captured by Safe-driving (with your hands on the
wheel)). Self-driving will be purchased by the
10%er that live way out in the burbs and self-drive
to clogged cities. Alain
###
C’mon Man!(These
folks didn't get/read the memo)
Navigant Research Leaderboard Report: Automated Driving
Navigant, Apr 2017, “This Navigant Research Leaderboard Report examines the strategy and execution of 18 leading companies developing automated driving systems. These players are rated on 10 criteria:…Read more Hmmmm… I couldn’t get by the 1st chart. When the ranking’s from one’s ratings don’t pass the sniff-test, then one should question the rating system. C’mon Man! How are you reducing your 10 criteria to 2 values??? What??? Alain
Calendar
of Upcoming Events:
SmartDrivingCar Summit
May 17 & 18, 2017
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ
Recent
Highlights of:
#
###
###
April 3, 2017
Uber Crash Shows Human Traits in Self-Driving Software
M. Bergen, Mar 29, "... Uber Crash Shows Human Traits in
Self-Driving Software...In a statement to police,
Patrick Murphy, an Uber employee in the car, said the
Volvo SUV was traveling 38 miles per hour, a notch below
the speed limit. He said the traffic signal turned
yellow as the Uber vehicle entered the intersection. He
then saw the Honda turning left, but "there was no time
to react as there was a blind spot" created by traffic.
The Honda hit Uber's car, pushing it into a traffic pole
and causing it to turn on its side. ...Eyewitness
accounts can often be unreliable, and other witnesses in
the police report did not say that the Uber car was at
fault -- something the police agreed with. Still,
Torres's account raises the question of whether Uber's
self-driving sensors spotted the light turning yellow
and, if so, whether it decided it could safely continue
through the intersection....Self-driving cars have more
often been criticized for driving too cautiously,
slowing or stopping when human drivers would be more
aggressive. Autonomous vehicles operated by Waymo have
been rear-ended due to such issues and the company has
been working to make its system more human..." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-29/uber-crash-shows-human-traits-in-self-driving-software) Hmmmm... Read
the whole article. In a very concise way it hits
the major issues, one of which is the very sensitive
subject of offensive v defensive driving. How
should we tune driving behaviors? As I pointed out
last week, it would be very helpful if Uber released
all of the data that was captured in the seconds
leading up to this crash so that everyone can as
Mark wrote: "...Last year, after
a Waymo car bumped into a bus, the company said it
used the incident, and "thousands of variations on
it," to refine its software. "This is a classic
example of the negotiation that's a normal part of
driving -- we're all trying to predict each other's
movements," it added...." Alain
March 27, 2017
Uber self-driving test car involved in crash in Arizona
N. Lomas, mar 25, "More bad news for Uber: one of the
ride-hailing giant's self-driving Volvo SUVs has been
involved in a crash in Arizona — apparently leaving the
vehicle flipped onto its side, and with damage to at
least two other human-driven cars in the vicinity.
The aftermath of the accident is pictured in [photos](https://twitter.com/fresconews/status/845475784563281922)
and a [video](https://twitter.com/fresconews/status/845538056031649793)
posted to Twitter by a user of @FrescoNews, a service
for selling content to news outlets. According to
the company's tweets, the collision happened in Tempe,
Arizona, and no injuries have yet been reported....Local
[newspaper reports](http://www.abc15.com/news/region-southeast-valley/tempe/tempe-police-self-driving-uber-vehicle-involved-in-car-accident-no-injuries) suggest another car failed to yield to
Uber's SUV..." [Read more](https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/25/uber-self-driving-test-car-involved-in-crash-in-arizona/)Hmmm... Important: Looks as if this is
the same situation as with the Florida Tesla Crash.
The Uber car was cutoff and it's the other guy's
fault. Hopefully Uber will release (or the police
has impounded and will release though FoI) the
pre-crash data streams from the Uber GPS, video,
radar and Lidar systems so that it can be determined
if Uber's Automated Collision Avoidance (ACA) system
did all it could be expected to do to avert this
Crash.
One assumes that the Self-driving systems,
offensively, are sufficiently good that they won't
fail-to-yield or inappropriately change lanes or run
into things in the lane ahead, or...(Note: Uber's [running of a red light](http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2016/12/14/self-driving-uber-apparently-runs-red-light-in-san-francisco/) in SF is a very serious flaw!
Had a crash occurred, then the software/Uber would
have been at fault. That event must be essentially
never occur; and it occurred within the first few
days. Not good!). But one also needs these cars to
be good defensively with its Automated Collision
Avoidance (ACA/'Smart-Driving Car') capability. We
should ask: Has Uber been too cavalier about the
defensive ACA / Safe-driving Car aspects and rushed
into the Self-driving Car realm (which does them no
real good because they require Driverless which may
not necessarily evolve out of Self-driving). What
Driverless does need is elegant, robust and fault
tolerant ACA /Safe-driving capabilities.
Also... In all of the driving Google/Waymo has
done, they've only been at fault once, a 2mph crash
with a bus, and have been hit several time where the
other car was at fault. Undoubtedly, the
Google/Waymo cars have been 'cutoff' many time, but
their ACA system averted a crash. Quite possibly,
in some of these cases, a human driver may not have
fared as well. It would be interesting to know how
many because this would be a measure of the extent
to which Google/Waymo cars have made everyone else
around them safer human drivers. Alain
March 20, 2017
Uber’s autonomous cars drove 20,354 miles and had to be taken over at every mile, according to documents
J. Bhuiyan, Mar 16, "Some of Uber's self-driving cars
aren't driving as smoothly as the company hoped they
would. Documents circulated throughout the company's
self-driving group, which Recode obtained, gives us a
first look at the progress of the ride-hail company's
robot cars in Pennsylvania, Arizona and California.
The top line: Uber's robot cars are steadily increasing
the number of miles driven autonomously. But the figures
on rider experience — defined as a combination of how
many times drivers have to take over and how smoothly
the car drives — are still showing little progress....
For example: During the week ending March 8, the 43
active cars on the road only drove an average of close
to 0.8 miles before the safety driver had to take over
for one reason or another...
The good news is the number of miles between these
"critical" interventions has recently improved. Last
week, the company's cars drove an average of
approximately 200 miles between those types of incidents
that required a driver to take over..." [Read more](http://www.recode.net/2017/3/16/14938116/uber-travis-kalanick-self-driving-internal-metrics-slow-progress) Hmmm... Waymo is so
incredibly far ahead. Even with these statistics,
it depends on when and where the miles were drive.
It is relatively unchallenging in some places at
some times, especially if you've experienced it many
times before. Its all about being able to handle the
unexpected to achieve Driverless. Uber
accrues no substantive value until it reaches Driverless.
Self-driving's only value is as a way/process to
achieve Driverless. Alain
March 10, 2017
Intel to Buy Mobileye, Maker of Sensors for Self-Driving Cars, for $15.3 Billion
M. Scott, Mar 13, “Intel agreed on Monday to buy Mobileye, an Israeli technology company that specializes in making sensors and cameras for autonomous cars, for $15.3 billion, as the global microchip giant tries to expand its reach in the fast-growing sector….As part of the deal, Intel said it would buy Mobileye’s outstanding shares at $63.54 a share, a 34 percent premium to Mobileye’s closing price on Friday….
Intel’s deal for Mobileye seems to be a recognition that chip-making rivals like Nvidia and Qualcomm have moved slightly ahead in the race to provide the computing power needed for autonomous cars… Intel said it would continue investing in the autonomous-driving industry, a sector that it said would be worth about $70 billion by 2030…“ Read moreHmmm… The hits keep coming! Friday..the California Regs welcoming Driverless; Monday… this. Tomorrow… nVIDIA???? Alain
Robot cars — with no human driver — could hit California roads next year
R. Mitchell, Mar 10, “California is back on the map as a state that’s serious about welcoming driverless cars.Truly driverless cars — vehicles with no human behind the wheel, and perhaps no steering wheel at all — are headed toward California streets and highways starting in 2018…
The regulations lay out “a clear path for future deployment of autonomous vehicles” in California, said Bernard Soriano, deputy director at the Department of Motor Vehicles….” Read moreHmmm… Congratulations Bernard! This is fantastic news on the road to providing high-quality mobility for all. It squarely addresses the fundamental need to efficiently re-position vehicles so that they can get to even those who can’t drive. This is a real turning point for automated vehicles from self-driving toys for the 1% to affordable, environmentally friendly mobility for everyone. Alain March 3, 2017
Buffett has an interesting theory about why self-driving cars will hurt the insurance industry
E. Gurdus, Feb 27, “The self-driving car business could become a major threat to insurance companies when the technology hits the market, billionaire investor Warren Buffett told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday.
If autonomous vehicles prove to be safer than regular
cars, insurance costs will plummet, and by the time
roads are filled with self-driving cars insurers like
Geico will have taken a serious hit, Buffett said...
“If I had to take the over and under [bet] ten years from now on whether 10 percent of the cars on the road would be self-driving, I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong,” he said….” Read moreHmmm…Really shouldn’t go against Buffet; however, he’s going to be smiling all the way to the bank. I just don’t see how the premise implies Geico takes a serious hit. I tell everyone that I don’t understand insurance. I guess I just don’t understand insurance. :-(
I suspect that by cars he means cars + light trucks for which there are about 250M currently registered in the US with 38% being greater than 10 years old. Assuming these basic numbers remain roughly constant: of the 155M vehicles sold in the next 10 years, 25M or 16% would need to be ‘Self-driving’. Since we are starting from a zero base with zero production, we are going to need to be upwards of a 30% adoption rate in the 10th year in order to have populated 16% of the fleet through that year. So, I agree with Warren wrt ‘Self-driving’”: “I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong” Wrt ‘Safe-driving, I would take the over, because the early numbers are attainable, especially if Insurance comes on board. Wrt ‘Diverless’: No way unless they are manufactured by a non-traditional entity that is totally disruptive in years 8, 9 and 10. Alain
February 24, 2017
Alphabet’s Waymo Alleges Uber Stole Self-Driving Secrets
M. Bergen, Feb 23, “It took Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo seven years to design and build a laser-scanning system to guide its self-driving cars. Uber Technologies Inc. allegedly did it in nine months.
Waymo claims in a lawsuit filed Thursday that was
possible because a former employee stole the designs
and technology and started a new company....Anthony
Levandowski, a former manager at Waymo, in December
2015 downloaded more than 14,000 proprietary and
confidential files, including the lidar circuit board
designs, according to the complaint. He also allegedly
created a domain name for his new company and confided
in some of his Waymo colleagues of plans to
"replicate" its technology for a competitor...." [Read more](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-23/alphabet-s-waymo-sues-uber-for-stealing-self-driving-patents) Hmmm...This is
very serious. So unfortunate. :-( Alain
February 17, 2017
Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2016 Estimated to be Highest in Nine Years
Press release, Feb. 15, “NSC offers insight into what drivers are doing and calls for immediate implementation of proven, life-saving measures…
With the upward trend showing no sign of subsiding,
NSC is calling for immediate implementation of
life-saving measures that would set the nation on a [road to zero](http://www.nsc.org/learn/NSC-Initiatives/Pages/The-Road-to-Zero.aspx) deaths:..." [Read more](http://www.nsc.org/Connect/NSCNewsReleases/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=180)Hmmm..."Automated
Collision Avoidance" or anything having to do with
'Safe-driving Cars' is not mentioned
anywhere in the Press Release. One of us is
missing something very fundamental here!! So
depressing!! :-( Alain
January 27, 2017
Serving the Nation’s Personal Mobility Needs with the Casual Sharing of autonomousTaxis & Today’s Urban Rail, Amtrak and Air Transport Systems
A. Kornhauser, Jan 14, “Orf467F16 Final Project Symposium quantifying implications of such a Nation-wide mobility system on Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO), energy, environment and congestion, including estimates of fleet size, needed empty vehicle repositioning, and ridership implications on existing rail transit systems (west, east, NYC) and Amtrak of a system that would efficiently and effectively perform their ‘1st mile’/’last-mile’ mobility needs. Read more Hmmm… Now linked are 1st Drafts of the chapters and the powerPoint summaries of these elements. Final Report should be available by early February. The major finding is, nationwide there exists sufficient casual ridesharing potential that a well–managed Nationwide Fleet of about 30M aTaxis (in conjunction with the existing air, Amtrak and Urban fixed-rail systems) could serve the vehicular mobility needs of the whole nation with VMT 40% less than today’s automobiles while providing a Level-of-Service (LoS) largely equivalent and in many ways superior than is delivered by the personal automobile today. Also interesting are the findings as to the substantial increased patronage opportunities available to Amtrak and each of the fixed rail transit systems around the country because the aTaxis solve the ‘1st and last mile’ problem. While all of this is extremely good news, the challenging news is that since all of these fixed rail systems currently lose money on each passenger served, the additional patronage would likely mean that they’ll lose even more money in the future. :-( Alain
January 20, 2017
Fiscal Year 2016 SRD Program Grant Selections
Public Announcement, Jan 22: “Pierce Transit will receive $1,664,894 to deploy buses equipped with collision avoidance warning systems or automatic braking features. The objective of this project is to deploy and demonstrate collision avoidance technology in partnership with the Washington State Transit Insurance Pool (WSTIP), a collaborative organization of 25 Washington public transit agencies that combine their resources to provide and purchase insurance coverage, manage claims and litigation, and receive risk management and training. Pierce Transit will work with WSTIP to accurately determine the business case for investing in these technologies.” Read moreHmmm… Finally!! More than 3 years since Lou Sanders of APTA, Jerome Lutin and I first proposed to FTA to do such a thing for the benefit of the entire bus transit industry (which FTA deemed as non-worthy) the FTA has finally turned around and jumped on-board. The unfortunate news: we lost 3 years. The fortunate news: the process of substantially reducing bus crashes is finally underway thanks to the hard work in the interim by Jerome Lutin and Jerry Spears (formerly of WSTIP). This and the good news below from Tesla may finally enlighten the insurance industry to play a leadership role in the market adoption of SafeDrivingCars/Buses/Trucks. Congratulations Jerome & Jerry! Alain
ODI (Office of Defects Investigation) Findings on Tesla AEB & AutoPilot
###
(Above link should work) Jan 19, “… Summary: … NHTSA’s examination did not identify any defects in the design or performance of the AEB or Autopilot systems of the subject vehicles nor any incidents in which the systems did not perform as designed. AEB systems used in the automotive industry through MY 2016 are rear-end collision avoidance technologies that are not designed to reliably perform in all crash modes, including crossing path collisions. The Autopilot system is an Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) that requires the continual and full attention of the driver to monitor the traffic environment and be prepared to take action to avoid crashes. Tesla’s design included a hands-on the steering wheel system for monitoring driver engagement…
... ODI analyzed data from crashes of Tesla Model S
and Model X vehicles involving airbag deployments
that occurred while operating in, or within 15
seconds of transitioning from, Autopilot mode. Some
crashes involved impacts from other vehicles
striking the Tesla from various directions with
little to no warning to the Tesla driver. Other
crashes involved scenarios known to be outside of
the state-of-technology for current-generation Level
1 or 2 systems, such as cut-ins, cut-outs and
crossing path collisions....
...The Florida fatal crash appears to have involved
a period of extended distraction (at least 7
seconds)..." .Hmmm... nothing else is written about
this nor is a basis given for the 'at least 7
seconds'. Possibly the most important
information revealed in this summary is Figure
11, p11: "...
Figure 11 shows the rates calculated by ODI
for airbag deployment crashes in the subject
Tesla vehicles before and after Autosteer
installation. The data show that the Tesla
vehicles crash rate dropped by almost 40
percent after Autosteer installation...
...A safety-related defect trend has not
been identified at this time and further
examination of this issue does not appear to
be warranted. Accordingly, this investigation
is closed. " [Read more](http://www.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/Orf467F16/NHTSA_ODI_FindingsOnTeslaFloridaCrash.PDF) Hmmm... WOW!!! . Every
word of this Finding is worth reading. It
basically exonerates Tesla, states that AEBs
(Automated Emergency Braking) systems don't
really work and aren't designed to work in some
scenarios (straight crossing path (SCP) and left
turn across path (LTAP), see p 2,3). ...which
suggests, to me, that DoT/NHTSA should be
placing substantial efforts on making these
systems really work in more scenarios. And...
there is the solid data that
'AutoSteer" reduced Tesla crashes by almost
40%!!! WOW!! Will Insurance now finally get
on-board and lead? Alai
October 27, 2016
Ontario Must Prepare for Vehicle Automation
B. Grush, Oct. 2016, “Two contradictory stories about our transportation infrastructure are currently in circulation. One is that Ontario’s aging, inadequate and congested infrastructure is perennially unable to catch up with a growing and sprawling GTHA. The other is that vehicle automation will soon dramatically multiply current road capacity by enabling narrower lanes, shorter headways and coordinated streams of connected vehicles to pass through intersections without traffic signals to impede flow.
Since the premature forecast of peak car in 2008 and
now the hype surrounding the automated vehicle, we are
often told that we have enough road capacity; that
shared robotic taxis will optimize our trips, reduce
congestion, and largely eliminate the need for
parking. This advice implies we need wait only a few
short years to experience relief from our current
infrastructure problems given by decades of
under-investment in transportation infrastructure.
This is wishful thinking. Vehicle automation will give rise to two different emerging markets: semi-automated vehicles for household consumption and fully automated vehicles for public service such as robo-taxi and robo-transit. These two vehicle types will develop in parallel to serve different social markets. They will compete for both riders and infrastructure. The purpose of this report is to look at why and how government agencies and public interest groups can and should influence the preferred types and deployment of automated vehicles and the implication of related factors for planning…” Read moreHmmm…Bravo! The Key Findings & Recommendations are excellent. This is an excellent report (but it largely misses goods movement.) Especially 5.1 (read ‘semi-autonomous’ as ‘Self-driving’ and ‘full-automation’ as ‘Driverless’. My view: Driverless may well be at the heals of Self-driving because it is a business play rather than a consumer play. Driverless will be ordered by the hundreds or thousands rather than individually.) and, of course Ch 10: Ownership (the business model) is more important than technology. Alain
September 23, 2016
Federal Automated Vehicles Policy: Accelerating the Next Revolution In Roadway Safety
September 2016, “Executive Summary…For DOT, the excitement around highly automated vehicles (HAVs) starts with safety. (p5)
…The development of advanced automated vehicle safety technologies, including fully self-driving cars, may prove to be the greatest personal transportation revolution since the popularization of the personal automobile nearly a century ago. (p5)
…The benefits don’t stop with safety. Innovations have the potential to transform personal mobility and open doors to people and communities. (p5)
…The remarkable speed with which increasingly complex HAVs are evolving challenges DOT to take new approaches that ensure these technologies are safely introduced (i.e., do not introduce significant new safety risks), provide safety benefits today, and achieve their full safety potential in the future. (p6) Hmmm…Fantastic statements and I appreciate that the fundamental basis and motivator is SAFETY. We all have recognized safety as a necessary condition that must be satisfied if this technology is to be successful. (unfortunately it is not a sufficient condition, (in a pure math context)). This policy statement appropriately reaffirms this necessary condition. Alain
“…we divide the task of facilitating the safe introduction and deployment (…defines “deployment” as the operation of an HAV by members of the public who are not the employees or agents of the designer, developer, or manufacturer of that HAV.) of HAVs into four sections:(p6) Hmmm…Perfect! Alain
“…1. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p6)…“ Hmmm… 15 Points, more later. Alain
“…2. Model State Policy (p7) The Model State Policy confirms that States retain their traditional responsibilities…but… The shared objective is to ensure the establishment of a consistent national framework rather than a patchwork of incompatible laws…” Hmmm… Well done. Alain
“…3. NHTSA Current Regulatory Tools (p7) … This document provides instructions, practical guidance, and assistance to entities seeking to employ those tools. Furthermore, NHTSA has streamlined its review process and is committing to…” Hmmm… Excellent. Alain
“…4. New Tools and Authorities (p7)…The speed with which HAVs are advancing, combined with the complexity and novelty of these innovations, threatens to outpace the Agency’s conventional regulatory processes and capabilities. This challenge requires DOT to examine whether the way DOT has addressed safety for the last 50 years should be expanded to realize the safety potential of automated vehicles over the next 50 years. Therefore, this section identifies potential new tools, authorities and regulatory structures that could aid the safe and appropriately expeditious deployment of new technologies by enabling the Agency to be more nimble and flexible (p8)…“ Hmmm… Yes. Alain
“…Note on “Levels of Automation” There are multiple definitions for various levels of automation and for some time there has been need for standardization to aid clarity and consistency. Therefore, this Policy adopts the SAE International (SAE) definitions for levels of automation. ) Hmmm… I’m not sure this adds clarity because it does not deal directly with the difference between self-driving and driverless. While it might be implied in level 4 and level 5 that these vehicles can proceed with no one in the vehicle, it is not stated explicitly. That is unfortunate, because driverless freight delivery can’t be done without “driverless”; neither can mobility-on-demand be offered to the young, old, blind, inebriated, …without “driverless”. Vehicles can’t be “repositioned-empty” (which (I don’t mean to offend anyone) is the real value of a taxi driver today). So autonomousTaxis are impossible.
Also, these levels do not address Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) Systems and Automated Lane Keeping Systems which are the very first systems whose on-all-the-time performance must be perfected. These are the Safety Foundation of HAV (Highly Automated vehicles). I understand that the guidelines may assume that these systems are already perfect and that “20 manufacturer have committed” to have AEB on all new cars, but to date these systems really don’t work. In 12 mph IIHS test, few stop before hitting the target, and, as we may have seen with the Florida Tesla crash, the Level 2/3 AutoPilot may not have failed, but, instead, it was the “Phantom Level 1” AEB that is supposed to be on all the time. This is not acceptable. These AEB systems MUST get infinitely better now. It is a shame that AEBs were were not explicitly addressed in this document.
“…I. Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles (p11) A. Guidance: if a vehicle is compliant within the existing FMVSS regulatory framework and maintains a conventional vehicle design, there is currently no specific federal legal barrier to an HAV being offered for sale.(footnote 7) However, manufacturers and other entities designing new automated vehicle systems
are subject to NHTSA's defects, recall and enforcement
authority. (footnote 8) .
and the "[15 Cross-cutting Areas of Guidance](http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/21/technology/the-15-point-federal-checklist-for-self-driving-cars.html?_r=0)" p17)
In sum this is a very good document and displays just how far DoT policy has come from promoting v2v, DSRC and centralized control, “connected”, focus to creating an environment focused on individual vehicles that responsibly take care of themselves. Kudos to Secretary Foxx for this 180 degree policy turn focused on safety. Once done correctly, the HAV will yield the early safety benefits that will stimulate continued improvements that, in turn, will yield the great mobility, environmental and quality-of-life benefits afforded by driverless mobility.
What are not addressed are commercial trucking and buses/mass transit. NHTSA is auto focused, so maybe FMCSA is preparing similar guidelines. FTA (Federal Transit Administration) seems nowhere in sight. Alain
7 Crash
Hmmm…What we know now (and don’t know):
Extracting Cognition out of Images for the Purpose of Autonomous Driving
Chenyi Chen PhD Dissertation , “…the key part of the thesis, a direct perception approach is proposed to drive a car in a highway environment. In this approach, an input image is mapped to a small number of key perception indicators that directly relate to the affordance of a road/traffic state for driving…..” Read more Hmmm..FPO 10:00am, May 16 , 120 Sherrerd Hall, Establishing a foundation for image-based autonomous driving using DeepLearning Neural Networks trained in virtual environments. Very promising. Alain
U.S. DOT and IIHS announce historic commitment of 20 automakers to make automatic emergency braking standard on new vehicles
Adam Jonas’ View on Autonomous Cars
Video similar to part of Adam's Luncheon talk @ 2015
Florida Automated Vehicle Symposium on Dec 1. [Hmmm ... Watch Video](http://orfe.princeton.edu/%7Ealaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/AdamJonas10T_MorganStanley.mp4)
especially at the 13:12 mark.
Compelling; especially after the 60 Minutes segment
above! Also see his [TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/analysts/adam-jonas).
Alain
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